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M
TWELFTH
FEDERAL
RESERVE
O
N
T
H
L
Y
R
E
V
I
E
W
DISTRICT
Fe d e r a l
S eptem ber 1952
reserve
Ba n k
of
S a n Fr a n c is c o
REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS
u s in e ss
activity quickened nationally during August
Band early September as industrial production ex
panded and other lines of activity maintained a good
pace. Termination of the steel strike in late July was
followed by a rapidly increasing flow of steel, and the
Federal Reserve index of industrial production recov
ered from a low of 193 in July to 215 in August and an
estimated 223 in September. Construction activity also
continued strong. During June, July, and August hous
ing starts were sufficient in number to bring the annual
rate for each of these months well above 1,000,000 units.
Nevertheless, they failed to reach the 1,200,000 mark
for three successive months so Regulation X was ter
minated in mid-September in accordance with the pro
visions of the Defense Production Act amendments of
1952.
In August retail sales for the country improved con
siderably on a seasonally adjusted basis. Department
store sales recorded one of their sharpest rises and
reached the highest level since February 1951. Auto
mobile sales, however, did not recover as rapidly fol
lowing the steel strike as had been anticipated. The lack
of strong consumer spending for automobiles was at
tributed in part to a desire to wait for 1953 models.
In the light of events through mid-September, busi
ness prospects appeared favorable. The demand for
goods was strong as restocking of raw material and some
finished goods inventories commenced after the end of
the steel strike. Retailers in many lines, with inven
tories trimmed to a workable level, were placing larger
orders than for some months past. Consumer behavior
was still causing some concern despite the August gain
in retail trade. Although the amount of consumer spend
ing has been well maintained on the whole, the fluctua
tions in volume have been sufficient to make retailers
somewhat uncertain as to the outlook. Moreover, con
sumers have continued to demand good value for their
expenditures. Current spending rates will, however, re
quire a continued high flow of goods.
District employment continues to expand
Strikes in the District steel, maritime, and construc
tion industries have failed to dampen the expansion of
nonagricultural employment in the District during re
cent months. So far this year nonagricultural employ
ment has been well ahead of 1951. In July and August
the number of nonagricultural jobs were at a record
level. This rising level of employment has occurred prin
cipally because of gains in defense industries, at mili
tary establishments, and in trade and service industries.
In many respects the District has been more fortunate
than the nation. The steel strike had a much smaller
impact here than in the nation generally. In addition
the upswing in seasonal activity and defense work was
strong enough to offset the losses induced by the steel
strike in this District. As a consequence the District
reported a gain in nonagricultural employment in July
over a year ago in contrast to a decline nationally. In
earlier months the District was little affected by the
petroleum dispute which caused considerable idleness
nationally. Reduced output of consumer durable goods
and lagging nondurable production have not had as
marked an effect in this District as in many other parts
of the nation. Though total nonagricultural employment
nationally has remained above last year’s level, except
in June and July, manufacturing employment has lagged
behind 1951.
Manufacturing goes ahead
Expansion in manufacturing employment has been
primarily responsible for the gains over last year in
District nonagricultural employment through August.
In July, for example, manufacturing jobs were more
numerous by almost 6 percent than they were in July
1951. The aircraft industry contributed the largest num
ber of new jobs, but impressive gains were also re-
A ls o in This Issu e
Twelfth District Interregional Trade— 1950
Earnings and Expenses of Twelfth District
Member Banks, First Half 1952
Income in the Twelfth District, 1952
Suspension of Regulation X
78
FEDERAL RESERVE B A N K OF SA N FRANCISCO
ported by the shipbuilding, ordnance, and electrical ma
chinery industries. The impact of the steel strike re
duced employment in the metals industries by 6 per
cent, and food processing and canning was off slightly
from last year because of a large carryover in many
canned goods lines.
Shipbuilding employment in the District appears des
tined for a mild boost in the near future. A contract for
five maritime vessels awarded to an Alameda, Califor
nia shipyard is rapidly approaching the active con
struction stage. Laying of the first keel had been delayed
by a lack of steel allocations. Steel has now been made
available and 3,000 workers will probably be added by
the time the program reaches its peak.
Power cuts hurt aluminum employment
Unusually dry weather has again created a power
problem in the Pacific Northwest. Stream flows have
been reduced sharply and the Bonneville Power Admin
istration found it necessary to cut interruptible power
allocations early in September. The removal of a block
of 300,000 kilowatts caused aluminum plants in Wash
ington to lay off 1,300 workers. This action is probably
temporary since a few good rains could restore the water
flow necessary to raise power production. Nevertheless,
the current shortage again points up the problem of
expanding water storage facilities to combat adverse
weather developments and the need for some steam plants
to firm up the power supply.
M ining and construction employment down
Rising manufacturing employment was accompanied
by gains in trade, finance, service, and government em
ployment, but these were offset partly by declines in
mining, construction, and transportation jobs. In July
mining of iron ore and coal was sharply reduced, reflect
ing the effects of the shutdown of a major portion of
the steel industry. At the same time some Idaho metal
mines reduced activity because of adverse market de
velopments. Nearly all the idleness in the mining in
dustry came to an end in August, however. Construc
tion employment during July lagged behind 1951, owing
partly to a walkout of operating engineers on Southern
California building projects and partly to the comple
tion of some major public projects in the Pacific North
west.
Residential building continues strong
During August urban building permits for dwelling
units in this District were about 25 percent above last
year’s level. Builders’ plans indicate that a good volume
of housing construction will continue until weather con
ditions force a cutback in activity. Residential construc
tion in this District has moved along since April at a
pace exceeded only by the all-time record set in 1950.
Although down payments required under Regulation X
and companion regulations have tended to restrict the
September 1952
market for homes over $15,000, inventories of unsold
homes in this as well as other price categories have not
reached significant proportions in any areas of this Dis
trict.
Suspension of Regulation X in mid-September eased
credit requirements on Government-insured and guar
anteed loans considerably and left the terms for conven
tional loans up to the borrower and lender. The effect
that these changes may have upon the volume of resi
dential construction is not yet apparent. Lenders gen
erally have been very selective in granting mortgages
and veterans’ loans have been acquired from builders at
a discount. The present mortgage money supply ap
pears adequate, and there is no present indication to
suspect that lenders, who have been exercising consid
erable caution, will increase the available volume of funds
merely because of the suspension of emergency credit
restrictions. Lenders have shown a marked reluctance
to commit themselves beyond that flow of funds which
is readily available from repayments on their portfolio
and new savings. With more lenient credit terms builders
may find a wider market, especially for houses over
$15,000, but this will not stimulate sales unless lenders
are willing to supply a larger volume of mortgage money.
Nonresidential activity fends to be slow
The dollar volume of urban building permits for non
residential structures in this District has been below last
year’s level in every month this year except June. This
has occurred despite a high rate of public building. H ow
ever, a considerable part of the public building has taken
place in nonurban areas and hence has not been included
in these figures. Furthermore, the volume of nonresi
dential building has been curtailed by the restrictions
on material use and credit restrictions on some types of
nonresidential structures. Easing of material restrictions
has resulted in some improvement starting in June and
the recent suspension of Regulation X may also have
some moderate effect.
The outlook for nonresidential building in the Dis
trict is not without its brighter side. Public construc
tion is still expanding in some areas. At Hanford, Wash
ington, the Atomic Energy Commission has let a $411
million contract to be started this fall. Recently, a num
ber of large private projects have also been announced.
Included among these is a $40 million refinery expan
sion in Long Beach and a $36 million chemical plant,
also in the Los Angeles area.
Consumers continue to present a puzzle
So far this year consumers have kept the retail com
munity guessing. This has been apparent in the Twelfth
District as well as nationally, except that sales results
in this District have been somewhat better than in the
nation as a whole. After a weak first quarter, sales in
the District made a brisk gain. Much of the increased
spending was concentrated on durable goods. The up
September 1952
79
M O N T H L Y REVIEW
swing in durable goods buying was accelerated for a
time by the suspension of Regulation W in early May.
Sales of television and appliances increased substan
tially at Twelfth District department stores during June
and July. In July, however, sales of apparel, linens, and
small wares slowed considerably. As a result total de
partment store sales, though still ahead of 1951, had
dropped back on a seasonally adjusted basis almost to
the first quarter level.
In August consumers unloosed their purse strings a
bit more and department store sales in the Twelfth Dis
trict were up over last year and ahead of July 1952 on
a seasonally adjusted basis. These swings in sales have
left merchants in a quandary. Though inventories have
been reduced sharply from last year, orders for new
goods have been increased in the expectation of better
sales in the fall season. Many merchants feel, however,
that these preparations for expanding sales during the
remaining months of the year have not been fully jus
tified by the sales results of recent months. Consumers
are spending at a good rate, but they are not causing
any rush at the counters.
TWELFTH DISTRICT INTERREGIONAL TRADE — 1950
studies of data developed by the Interstate
Commerce Commission reveal that the Twelfth Dis
trict tends to be a net exporter of goods to the rest of the
nation, at least as far as rail movements of commodities
are concerned. In 1950, the latest year for which complete
data are available, rail exports from the District totaled
more than 1,019 thousand carloads, with imports by rail
of 644 thousand carloads. The favorable excess of ex
ports in the District’s trade by rail, 576 thousand car
loads— equivalent to 12^2 million tons of commodities—
reflected primarily the interregional movement of lum
ber and farm products. The District was a net importer
of manufactured, mineral, and livestock products in 1950.
It is important to note that the Interstate Commerce
Commission data are confined solely to the movement of
commodities by the nation’s Class I steam railroads and
do not include a large volume of interregional shipments
by highway, water, pipeline, and air. Obviously, neither
are waterborne shipments to and from foreign ports in
cluded, except that imports from foreign countries that
enter the United States through Twelfth District ports
and are then transshipped by rail to final destinations out
side the District appear in the ICC data as originating
in the Twelfth District. Although such shipments give
rise to employment in the transportation and other service
industries as they pass through the District, including
them as commodity exports, as in the ICC data, over
states the true balance of District commodity trade. Simi
larly, exports to foreign countries which are brought into
the District by rail appear as shipments terminating in the
District.The inclusion of these transshipments overstates
the District’s interregional imports of goods for use with
in the District, and consequently results in an understate
ment of the District’s real interregional export balance.
R
e c e n t
T
w e l ft h
D
is t r ic t
R
a il
E
x po r ts—
All commodities ...................................................................
M an u factu res........................................................................
Farm p ro d u c ts......................................................................
Livestock and p r o d u c ts ...................................................
Forest p r o d u c ts ...................................................................
Mineral products ...............................................................
Less than carload shipments.......................................
1950
For the various reasons already indicated, rail ship
ments do not in all cases reveal fully District exports or
imports of some important commodities. Completed air
craft, a major item of manufacture in both California and
Washington, are normally flown to their final destina
tions. A large volume of District petroleum products and
of California cotton moves by water. Although rail car
load movements do not provide an adequate measure of
the importance of some commodities in the District’s in
terregional trade, they represent, nevertheless, a suffi
cient volume of shipments to provide a broad outline of
the District’s trade with the rest of the country.
It should also be noted that, although the District
shows a substantial net export by rail of goods, this does
not necessarily indicate a similar situation in terms of the
dollar balance of interregional trade. A carload of lum
ber or of potatoes, for example, is not the dollar equiva
lent of a similar quantity of highly manufactured goods
such as automobiles or electric refrigerators.
Farm and forest products dominate
District interregional exports
The composition of District interregional rail exports
confirms the District’s position as the nation’s leading
producer of lumber and reflects its relative advantage in
the production of many farm crops. The output of these
two major industries provides the chief means with which
the District pays for the imports of commodities not pro
duced in sufficient volume to satisfy “ domestic” demand
within the District.
T
Carloads
Percent
1,019,800
241,700
391,200'
20,000
323,100
40,300
2,300
100.0
23.7
38.4
2.0
31.7
4.0
0.2
N o t e : The commodity breakdown does not add to the total since certain car
load movements are not included although they are in the “ all com
m odities" classification.
Source : Interstate Commerce Commission.
These shipments were particularly important in the latter
half of 1950 when a large volume of rail shipments des
tined for Korea came into the District.
w e l ft h
D
is t r ic t
R
a il
I
m po r t s—
A ll commodities ......................................................................
M an u factu res........................................................................
Farm p ro d u c ts......................................................................
Livestock and p r o d u c ts ...................................................
Forest products .................................................................
Mineral p r o d u c ts.................................................................
Less than carload shipments......................................
1950
Carloads
Percent
643,700
403,500
52,700
72,700
10,300
58,400
44,100
100.0
62.9
8.2
11.3
1.6
9.1
6.1
N ote : The commodity breakdown does not add to the total since certain car
load movements are not included although they are in the “ all com
modities” classification.
Source : Interstate Commerce Commission.
80
FEDERAL RESERVE B A N K OF SA N FRANCISCO
A long growing season, particularly in California,
along with a generally higher productivity of District
farms than in the country as a whole accounts for the
dominance of farm crops in the interregional trade of the
Twelfth District. In 1950, shipments of farm crops pro
vided more than 37 percent of interregional exports to
other areas of the United States. Fresh vegetables, fol
lowed by citrus fruits and grapes, accounted for the ma
jor share of farm product exports in that year, most of
which originated in the state of California. Arizona mel
ons, cantaloupes, and cotton also contributed a signifi
cant volume of farm product exports during the year in
question. Potatoes from Idaho and California and Wash
ington apples were the only other farm crop shipments
of substantial size to move by rail.
Exports of forest products, the second most important
group of commodities in the interregional rail shipments,
reflected the large timber resources of the states along the
Pacific Coast. The District ranked first in the production
of lumber nationally in 1950 and has the major propor
tion of the remaining virgin saw timber resources of the
country. Lumber, shingles, and lath accounted for almost
30 percent of total interregional exports in the year un
der review. Plywood, of which the District is also a major
producer, supplied most of the remaining export of for
est products.
Even manufactured products, which ranked third in
out-of-District carload movements, reflected the process
ing of District farm and lumber products. Processed food
products and wine accounted for more than a third of
the interregional exports of manufactures during 1950.
Manufactured forest products, such as woodpulp, paper
products, and millwork were second in importance, ac
counting for more than one-sixth of the shipments of
manufactures during the year. The remainder of the man
ufactured products transferred to other areas of the na
tion included a wide range of commodities. Iron and steel
products, reflecting the growing steel industry in the Dis
trict, were the most important. The aluminum industry
of Oregon and Washington, despite substantial absorp
tion of its product by the District aircraft industry, ex
R E G I O N A L D IS T R I B U T I O N O F T W E L F T H D IS T R I C T
E X P O R T S B Y R A I L — 1950
September 1952
ported a significant volume of aluminum bars, sheets, and
tubes to areas outside the District.
Export markets largely in Central and
Middle Eastern states
The flow of rail shipments out of the District tended to
follow the distribution of incomes and population in other
parts of the nation. This flow was modified, however, by
distance and the self-sufficiency of various areas. The
geographic distribution of District rail exports in 1950 is
pictured on the accompanying map of the United States.
The East Central and Middle Eastern regions pro
vided the major markets for District interregional ex
ports in 1950, accounting for more than 61 percent of
total rail shipments in that year. New England absorbed
substantially fewer District products than would have
been expected on the basis of the region’s income and
population, but the long haul involved in shipments from
the District to these states is reflected in freight costs that
must be added to the price of the products. The output
of lumber products in the Southeastern states ranked sec
ond to that of the Twelfth District in 1950. This accounts
for iheir taking only minor quantities of the District’s
lumber shipments during the year.
The proximity of markets in the regions bordering the
Twelfth District undoubtedly accounts for their taking a
substantial proportion of District rail exports in compari
son with their income. States in the West Central region,
with about 5 percent of incomes and population outside
the Twelfth District, absorbed 12 percent of the inter
regional exports from this District. Similarly, the South
west region received a disproportionate share of District
exports in 1950.
Imports composed chiefly of manufactures
Despite a rapid growth in the District’s manufactur
ing industries, both in absolute size and range of prod
uct, the District was a heavy importer of these goods in
1950. Almost two-thirds of total.interregional rail im
ports during the year were manufactured products,
mostly durable goods. The remaining one-third, in or
R E G I O N A L S O U R C E S O F T W E L F T H D IS T R I C T
IM P O R T S B Y R A I L — 11950
September 1952
M O N T H L Y REVIEW
der of relative importance, consisted of livestock and
livestock products, mineral products, and minor quan
tities of farm and forest products.
Automobiles and motor vehicle parts for further proc
essing in District auto assembly plants were the ranking
rail import in 1950, accounting for approximately onefourth of total manufactured products entering the Dis
trict during the year. Durable consumer goods, such as
refrigerators, home laundry equipment, stoves and
ranges, and furniture and floor coverings, comprised the
second most important group of manufactured inter
regional imports in the period under review. It is clear
from the volume of these shipments that the District is
still not a major producer of consumer durable goods.
The tremendous growth in the District’s iron and
steel facilities during the decade of the 1940’s was not
sufficient to supply all the needs of this region’s manu
facturers and processors of metal products. While in
certain types of steel products the District had an ex
portable surplus, in other types it was still dependent
upon other areas of the country. Manufactured iron and
steel ranked third in importance in the imports of man
ufactured goods in 1950 and accounted for more than
7 percent of all such imports.
Among the more important of the remaining imports
of manufactured goods were refined petroleum products,
edible oils, rubber goods, drugs, textiles, and tobacco
products.
Although cattle raising is an important industry in
the Twelfth District, substantial quantities of livestock
and livestock products are imported to meet local de
mand, which has grown tremendously in the last decade,
largely as a result of the vast increase in population which
has occurred. In 1950, more than 72,000 carloads of live
stock and livestock products, mostly hogs, cattle, and
calves entered the District.
Bituminous coal, coke, aluminum ore, and crude pe
troleum were the principal mineral products imported
in 1950. Products of mines accounted for slightly less
than 9 percent of total imports during the year.
Only very minor quantities of farm and forest prod
ucts were imported from other areas of the country in
1950. The most important farm crop import was corn
followed by a smaller quantity of soybean and soybean
oilcake. Hardwoods and specialty woods not produced
in the District provided the main imports of forest prod
ucts in 1950.
Central states provide major source of imports
The sources of District rail imports are illustrated on
the second of the accompanying regional maps of the
United States. These sources reflect primarily the loca
tion of the different types of economic activity in the
various regions of the nation. The East Central states
provided over one-half of all commodity imports into
the Twelfth District in 1950, with almost two-thirds of
81
District manufactured imports coming from that region.
The Twelfth District’s outstanding import, it will be re
called, consisted of automobiles and motor vehicle parts,
most of which originated in the state of Michigan. Also,
a major proportion of the nation’s output of durable
goods is manufactured in the East Central states region.
In addition, the East Central states are an important
producer of iron and steel products.
Other regions, because of their resources or products,
dominated the District’s imports of commodities other
than manufactures. The West Central states supplied
the District with more than half of its imports of min
erals, largely on the basis of the shipment of coal from
Wyoming to Utah. Forest product imports came largely
from states in the Southeastern region where many spe
cialty woods and hardwoods are produced. The West Cen
tral states were also a major supplier of farm crop im
ports into the District. The Southwest, particularly Tex
as, supplied a large share of District imports of livestock.
Intradistrict trade
The interstate movements of commodities by rail be
tween the seven states of the Twelfth District totaled
almost 600 thousand carloads, somewhat less than the
imports by rail from other areas of the country. As with
imports, manufactures provided the dominant District
interstate movement, 46 percent in 1950, with over half
of the manufactures originating in California alone. The
dominance of California is explained by the major items
entering District interstate trade during the year. Re
fined petroleum products, iron and steel products, and
passenger cars led the list of manufactures moving from
one state to another by rail during the year. California
dominates District production of each of these products,
although other states, principally Utah and Washington,
are becoming increasingly important in one or more of
these lines. Other important manufactured commodities
which moved into District interstate trade in 1950 were
construction materials, paper and paper products, con
tainers, and processed foods.
Forest, farm, and mineral products shared about
equally most of the remainder of interstate rail trade of
the District. A major portion of the forest product
movement represented the shipment of lumber, shingles,
and lath from Oregon to California. A wide variety of
farm products moved between District states, but wheat
and potatoes provided the largest of such shipments.
Better than half of the mineral product shipments con
sisted of bituminous coal moving from Utah to Califor
nia, Washington, and Idaho.
The shipment of livestock and livestock products pro
vided only 4 percent of total District interstate rail trade
in 1950. The major proportion of the District’s interstate
movement of livestock represented shipments from the
Mountain states, particularly from Idaho and Utah, to
the Pacific Coast states.
82
September 1952
FEDERAL RESERVE B A N K OF SA N FRANCISCO
EARNINGS AN D EXPENSES OF TWELFTH DISTRICT MEMBER BANKS, FIRST HALF 1952
net current earnings of member banks in the
T
Twelfth Federal Reserve District totaled almost $115
million for the first half of this year, an increase of slightly
more than 10 percent over the comparable period of 1951.
Owing to substantially higher income tax payments, net
profits after taxes rose only 7.2 percent. Since net profits
after taxes were lower in the first half of 1951 than in the
corresponding period of 1950, the increase in the first six
months of this year brings the profit position of District
member banks to a level just slightly ahead of the period
immediately preceding the Korean outbreak.
Ratios of earnings and net profits after taxes to total
capital accounts of District banks remained substantially
unchanged from last year and continued to exceed by a
fairly wide margin the ratios for member banks in the
nation as a whole. Net current earnings as a percent of
total capital accounts equalled 19.9 percent (annual rate)
in the first half of this year compared with 19.5 percent
(annual rate) for the like 1951 period. Net profits after
taxes represented an 11.3 percent return on total capital
accounts, up slightly from a year ago. The comparable
national ratios for the first half of 1952 were 15.2 percent
for net current earnings and 8.0 percent for net profits
after taxes.
h e
Bank expenses rose faster than earnings
District member banks had smaller relative gains in net
current earnings and net profits after taxes than did mem
ber banks generally throughout the country. Although
total earnings rose 11.7 percent in both the District and
the nation during the first half of the year, expenses in
curred by District banks increased 12.6 percent compared
with 10.7 percent nationally. While a breakdown of all
expense items is not yet available, it is probable that the
major factors accounting for the relatively greater rise
in expenses for banks in this District are increased inter
est payments on savings and time deposits and increased
salaries and wages to officers and employees. District
banks typically hold a greater proportion of total deposits
in the form of time and savings accounts than do banks
in other areas of the country. On the basis of expense data
available for the fifteen largest banks in the District, in
terest on time and savings deposits increased almost 20
percent in the first half of this year compared with the
same period last year. Wages and salaries for the same
group of banks rose almost 12 percent over the compa
rable period a year ago.
Interest earnings of District banks on Government se
curities rose 16.3 percent in the first half of 1952 com
pared with the same period in 1951, a gain almost twice
that for the nation as a whole. The average holdings of
Government securities of District member banks were
nearly 4 percent larger in the first half of 1952 than in the
corresponding period of 1951, while the Government port
folios of all member banks increased only about 1.5 per
cent. Most of the increase in the holdings of District banks
occurred in Treasury bills and certificates of indebted
ness on which the yields were significantly higher than
in the first half of 1951.
Income from interest on loans and discounts increased
less in the District than in the nation, 11.4 percent com
pared with 13.1 percent. This reflects the fact that the
average volume of loans outstanding rose somewhat less
at District banks than at all member banks in the first
half of 1952 compared with the corresponding period a
year ago.
Smaller banks fared better than the fifteen
largest banks in the District
The smaller banks in the District made larger gains in
their net profits after taxes than did the fifteen largest
banks. The net profits of smaller banks increased almost
11 percent in the first half of this year compared with the
same period last year while the fifteen largest banks
realized something less than 7 percent. This is largely the
result of the lesser impact of increased taxes upon the net
earnings of the smaller banks in the District. Taxes on
net income for the fifteen largest banks rose 27.2 percent
in the first half of 1952 relative to the first half of 1951
compared with a rise of only 1.2 percent for the smaller
banks.
Changes in net profits varied considerably among the
fifteen largest banks in the District. Nine banks reported
net profit gains ranging from 2.5 percent to more than 50
percent. Five banks reported decreased net profits, with
S
elected
B
a n k s
E
a r n in g s
— T
w e l ft h
J
a n u a r y
a n d
D
-J
E
x p e n se
is t r ic t
u n e
,
I
a n d
1951
t e m s
U
a n d
M
of
n it e d
S
em ber
t a t e s
,
1952
,----------------------Twelfth District---------------------\
t ----- All banks----- %
1st half 1st half ,-------Percent change------- \
1952p
1951
15
Interest and discount on
millions)
All
largest Other
-{-11.4 + 1 0 . 8 + 1 3 . 7
loans1 ............................... $197.8 $177.6
Interest on Government
securities ......................
5S.8
48.0
+ 1 6 .3 + 1 6 .6 + 1 4 .5
Other E a r n in g s ...............
68.1
62.5
+ 9.0 + 8.5 + 1 1 . 4
U . S.
percent
change—
all banks
+ 1 3 .1
+ 8.4
+ 1 1 .6
Total e a r n in g s ............
Total e x p e n s e s ............
321.7
206.8
288.1
183.7
+ 1 1 .7
+ 1 2 .6
+ 1 1 .2
+ 1 2 .0
+ 1 3 .4
+ 1 4 .9
+ 1 1 .7
+ 1 0 .7
N et current earn in gs.. .
Total recoveries and
profits .............................
Total losses and
charge-offs ....................
114.9
104.4
+ 1 0 .1
+ 1 0 .0
+ 1 0 .4
+ 1 3 .1
8.6
8.5
...
...
10.8
13.1
...
...
...
...
N et losses and
charge-offs ...............— 2.2
Profits before income
taxes ................................ 112.7
Taxes on net in c o m e ...
47.6
— 4.6
...
...
99.8
39.1
+ 1 2 .9
+ 2 1 .7
+ 1 4 .4
+ 2 7 .2
+
+
...
...
6.4
1.2
+ 1 9 .3
+ 3 4 .9
N et profits after t a x e s ..
65.1
60.7
+
7.2
+
6.5
+ 1 0 .7
+
8.9
Cash dividends declared2
32.8
31.6
+
3.8
+
2.8
+ 1 0 .8
+
5.9
+ 1 1 .1
+ 1 0 .6
+
9.0
Undistributed p r o fi t s ...$ 32.3 $ 29.1
+ 1 1 .0
1 United States loan earnings figures include service charges and other fees
on loans; Twelfth District figures include interest and discount only.
Service charges and fees on loans in Twelfth District included in “ other
earnings.”
2 Figures include common stock dividends only,
p— preliminary.
September 1952
83
M O N T H L Y REVIEW
declines varying from 2.9 percent to almost 30 percent,
and one bank had no change in net profits from a year ago.
Moderate rise in cash dividends noted
Cash dividends declared on common stock were in
creased only moderately as the result of expanded net in
comes. For all member banks in the District combined,
cash dividends were 3.8 percent greater in the first half
of this year than in the first half of 1951. The smaller
banks increased their dividends by 10.8 percent com
pared with only a 2.8 percent increase for the fifteen larg
est banks in the District.
INCOME IN THE TWELFTH DISTRICT, 1951
payments are of wide interest since they reveal
the impact of changes in business conditions in a par
ticularly meaningful fashion— the moneys received by in
dividuals. The economic well-being of most persons is
directly related to the general prosperity of the area in
which they live. This in turn is related to the fortunes of
the various sources from which income is derived, such
as agriculture, manufacturing, and trade and service ac
tivities. The individual’s income is also affected by the
form in which it is received— from his own labor, from
his property or business enterprise, or from transfer pay
ments from the Government which include, for example,
unemployment insurance benefits and old-age pensions.
The income of persons in a particular locality is directly
affected, therefore, by their participation in different in
dustries, each of which may fare differently over time,
and by the forms in which they receive their income, which
are also subject to considerable fluctuation. The data on
income payments by states compiled annually by the De
partment of Commerce reflect the influence of these forces
upon income in the Twelfth District.1
Total income payments to individuals in the Twelfth
District rose by 14 percent in 1951 compared with a na
tional increase of 12 percent. Every state in the District
shared in the increase. Arizona had the largest relative
gain both in the District and the United States. Its gain—
n c o m e
i This discussion is based upon the estimates which appear in the United
States Department of Commerce, S u r v e y o f C u r r e n t B u s i n e s s , August
1952, pp. 10-18.
N o t e : All subsequent references to the Twelfth District apply to the seven
states in the District, including five counties in southern Arizona which
are part of the Eleventh District.
T
otal
I
n c o m e
P
a y m e n t s
to
I
n d iv id u a l s
— T
w el fth
D
is t r ic t
1929-1951
(in millions)
Area
1929
1933
1939
1945
1950
1951
$
245 $
A r iz o n a ......................
120 $
227 $
604 $
936 $ 1,151
5,047
13,882
18,609
21,306
5,217
3,113
C a lifo r n ia .................
739
800
230
115
213
540
Idaho ........................
74
43
84
215
347
300
N e v a d a ......................
1,671
2,318
2,572
603
337
587
Oregon ......................
658
876
1,008
272
143
243
Utah ..........................
4,257
W a s h in g t o n ............
598
1,012
3,095
3,866
1,104
Twelfth D is tr ic t.. . $ 7,745 $ 4,469 $ 7,413 $ 20,665 $ 27,644 $ 31,441
United States. . . . . $82,617 $4 6 ,2 7 3 $70,601 $157,190 $217,672 $242,947
Percent change
Arizona ......................
California .................
Idaho ...........................
Nevada ......................
Oregon ......................
U t a h .............................
Washington ............
Twelfth District . .
United States ..........
1929-33
— 51
— 40
— 50
— 42
— 44
— 47
— 46
— 43
— 44
1933-39
89
62
85
95
74
70
69
66
53
1939-45
166
175
154
156
185
171
206
179
123
1945-50 1950-51
55
23
34
14
37
8
40
16
39
11
15
33
25
10
34
14
38
12
1929-51
370
308
248
369
327
271
286
306
194
N o t e : The above figures supersede others previously published in this R e
v i e w . For 1949 and 1950 state income statistics were revised by the D e
partment of Commerce.
23 percent— was triple that of Idaho, the state with the
lowest increase in the District. The growth in Arizona’s
income was accounted for by a large increase in agricul
tural income and larger than the average increases for the
District in all other sources of income except government.
Arizona, California, and Utah had the largest relative
increases in agricultural incomes in the District. This
appears to have been a result of the ability of these states
to turn out an increased volume of those products having
a higher value per acre at only a small increase in costs.
In several District states the largest increases in cash
receipts were derived from sales of livestock and livestock
products. Cash receipts for all agricultural commodities
rose most sharply in Nevada. Nevada’s net agricultural
income increased less, however, than that of the three
states already mentioned, owing primarily to the in
creased costs of livestock operations during the severe
winter of early 1951. Idaho’s cash receipts increased fifty
percent more rapidly than Oregon’s, but net agricultural
income in the latter state rose nearly four times as rapidly
as in Idaho. The over-all result was a District rise in agri
cultural income considerably below the national average.
The substantial rise in District manufacturing income
is primarily responsible for the greater relative increase in
total income payments in the District than in the nation
during 1951. Employment data furnish rough guides to
trends in income payments by individual industries. There
were moderate increases in lumber employment and large
increases in employment in aircraft manufacturing, ma
chinery, metals, and shipbuilding. These gains more than
offset the District declines in construction and apparel
employment. The District aircraft industry, which has
received 25 percent of the total prime contracts for air
craft since the start of the Korean war, had the largest
P
ercentag e
D
is t r ib u t io n
M
U
S
n it e d
ta tes
a jo r
a n d
of
C
T
T
otal
I
n c o m e
P
a y m e n t s
by
o m po n e n t s
w e l ft h
D
is t r ic t
S
ta tes
1940 a n d 1951
Agri^-culture-^
1940 1951
Area
, 14
22
. 6
California
7
, 24
21
9
11
10
8
Utah ................. 11
9
W ashington . . . 7
7
Governz— ment— N
1940
22
16
18
18
15
19
18
1951
18
18
15
18
14
22
21
Manufactu ring-N
1940 1951
6
5
13
17
8
11
4
2
18
22
9
10
18
18
Trade
and
<-service-N
1940 1951
26
25
30
29
24
24
25
32
27
27
25
25
26
26
/—Other-N
1940 1951
34
30
35
29
26
29
47
35
29
28
36
34
28
30
Twelfth District
8
8
17
18
13
17
29
28
34
29
United
7
8
15
15
20
24
26
26
33
27
States..
N o t e : Figures may not add to 100 percent because of rounding.
Source: United States Department of Commerce.
84
FEDERAL RESERVE B A N K OF SAN FRANCISCO
increase in employment among District industries during
the past year. The fact that employment in nearly all
lines of District manufacturing increased is evidence of
strength in other than national defense activities. In 18
of the 21 principal types of manufacturing in California,
for example, the relative increases in employment ex
ceeded the national gain in each category.
District employment in most other lines of activity also
expanded. Federal payrolls, military and civilian, rose
29 percent. The impact of this upon total employment and
income was substantial since Federal Government em
ployment provides such a large fraction of District in
come. Employment in the trade and service activities
also increased significantly. Using California once again
as an example, the relative increases in two-thirds of the
individual trade and service industries exceeded the na
tional increases in those industries. Since California ac
counts for about two-thirds of total income payments to
individuals in the Twelfth District, expansion of over-all
employment in California substantially affects the Dis
trict’s income.
Per capita incomes increased
The income per person in the District rose to $1,819 in
1951, an increase of $165 or 10 percent over the previous
year. The largest percentage increases within the District
occurred in Arizona and Utah although all District states
had increases of at least 8 percent. National per capita
income also rose by 10 percent in 1951, but the nation
wide figure of $1,584 was still 13 percent below the Dis
trict average.
There are powerful economic forces continually at work
to make incomes more nearly equal throughout the United
States. These forces are set in operation by the mobility
of labor and capital. As one area becomes exceptionally
attractive in economic terms, individuals and capital flow
into this area. These movements tend to raise wage and
capital payments in the areas which they leave and to
restrain the rise in the areas to which they go. In addiP
er
C
a p it a
I
n c o m e
P
a y m e n t s
— T
w el fth
D
is t r ic t
1929-1951
1929
Area
Arizona # ........................ . , $573
946
California ....................
Idaho ............................. . , , 518
817
N evada ........................
Oregon ........................
537
U t a h ...............................
713
W a s h in g t o n .................
818
Twelfth District
United S t a t e s ............
1933
$263
511
242
447
337
275
369
445
1929-33
Percent change
— 54
Arizona ........................
— 46
California ....................
— 53
Idaho .............................
Nevada ........................ , , — 45
— 47
Oregon ........................
— 49
U tah .............................
W ashington ............... , . . — 48
Tw elfth District . . . , . , — 46
1933-39
75
45
70
72
61
61
59
48
46
368
1939
$461
741
411
767
544
443
588
660
539
1939-45
117
98
168
93
136
141
131
110
121
1945
$1,007
1,466
1,100
1,483
1,281
1,066
1,357
1,384
1,191
1945-50
23
20
14
26
18
19
20
20
21
1950
$1,240
1,758
1,255
1,863
1,515
1,266
1,622
1,656
1,439
1950-51
16
10
8
9
9
12
8
10
10
1951
$1,432
1,933
1,356
2,029
1,652
1,424
1,755
1,819
1,584
1929-51
150
104
162
148
158
165
146
122
133
N o t e : The above figures supersede others previously published in this R e
v i e w . For 1949 and 1950 state income statistics were revised by the D e
partment of Commerce and the census estimates for 1945 and 1950 were
revised in light of the 1950 census.
September 1952
tion, there appears to be a fundamental law underlying
growth of all kinds which makes a constant rate of in
crease in size, wealth, income, or total population in
creasingly difficult to maintain. A decline in the rate of
increase of a rapidly growing area therefore is to be ex
pected ; and when a country consists of as many diverse
areas as the United States, differential rates of growth
are natural.
As previously indicated, total income increased by 14
percent in the Twelfth District in 1951 while per capita
income rose only 10 percent. This reflects a relatively
more rapid gain in population than in total income during
the year. Moreover, population grew more rapidly in the
District than in the nation during 1951. Consequently,
although total income payments rose relatively more in
the District than in the country as a whole, the rate of
growth in per capita income was no larger in the District
than in the nation.
Gain in District's population and total income
The short-term changes over the last year take on
added meaning when viewed against the background of
the longer-term change over the past two decades.
Changes in population, in total income received, in the
sources of such income and the form of payments over
a period which encompasses prosperity, depression, world
war, and postwar boom should be of considerable inter
est. In 1929 the various states in the Twelfth District
had a total population of 9.5 millions. In the succeeding
23 years the population of the District increased by 83
percent to a total on July 1, 1952 of 17,282,000 persons,
while that of the entire country increased by only 25 per
cent. Since the Twelfth District accounted for nearly
one-fourth of the national increase, its share of the na
tion’s population rose from 8 to 11 percent. Within the
District, California had the largest relative increase in
population— 100 percent— , and its share of the total Dis
trict population rose to 64 percent in 1952 compared with
58 percent in 1929.
Accompanying this growth in population has been an
even larger gro'vth in income. Total income payments
have quadrupled in the District since 1929 in contrast to
a three-fold increase in the country as a whole. As a re
sult, the District’s share of total income has risen from
9 percent in 1929 to 13 percent in 1951. This growth in
income was by no means an even one. Income in the
District fell as much as the nation’s in the last depression
but had rebounded more vigorously by 1939. The great
est relative growth of income occurred during the war
period when the District increased at a rate 45 percent
faster than the United States. In the immediate post
war period income increased at a slower rate in the Dis
trict than in the nation, but for the last three years the
two rates have been nearly equal. Although Arizona,
Nevada, and Oregon exceeded the rate of increase
achieved by California over this entire period, it is the
latter state which is responsible for most of the increase
September 1952
M O N T H L Y REVIEW
in dollar volume. Since 1929 California has received each
year about two-thirds of all District income. Changes
within this State therefore have a predominant influence
on District income. Every state in the District recorded
an above-average increase over this past generation.
District income per capita also gained
District income per person rose by $1000 between 1929
and 1951 compared with a national increase of $900. Be
cause per capita income was much higher for the District
than for the United States to begin with, the percentage
increase for the District has been less than for the United
States. Actually this less than proportionate increase is
due entirely to California’s performance. Every state in
the District except California gained more rapidly in in
dividual income than the nation, as is shown on the ac
companying chart; California, however, declined relative
to the nation from 139 percent of the national average
in 1929 to 122 percent in 1951. This is a part of the
process of equalization of incomes discussed above. In
addition, since population has grown more rapidly in the
District than in other sections of the country, the per
capita income rise has been tempered. It should also be
noted that per capita income is a comparative guide to
the well-being of individuals in different states only when
all conditions surrounding the money income are the
same. Residents of a high-income area may prefer to keep
their children in school longer or their wives primarily
in the homes rather than in the labor force. Individuals
in a high-income area may therefore not respond readily
to an increased demand for employment. On the other
hand, there will occur a more rapid increase in the num
ber of persons employed in a low-income area when the
demand for labor expands. The result is a greater per
centage gain in per .capita income in the lower income
district than in the higher as a consequence of more per
sons working.
85
substantially below that of the United States. On the
other hand, throughout the period the District has had a
larger proportion of government income payments and of
trade and service income than the nation.
California shows the same changes in sources of in
come as the District, which is natural, since it constitutes
nearly 70 percent of District income in all categories ex
cept agriculture where it constitutes 59 percent of the
total. The other states, on the contrary, depart consider
ably from the District average. Idaho has the greatest
consistent fraction of its income from agriculture. Its
decline from 1940 to 1951 in this category occurred
because the kind of balanced agriculture existing in the
state did not experience the sharp increase in income
fluctuations that characterized the more specialized areas
such as Arizona. The proportion of income provided by
agriculture in Arizona rose from 14 percent in 1940 to
22 percent in 1951. Small increases in the fraction of in
come represented by agriculture occurred in California
and Nevada while in the other states the proportion has
remained stationary or declined.
Nevada receives a larger fraction of income from trade
and service than any of the other states and is the only
District state to increase this share over the decade.
Washington displays a very stable source pattern over
this period, a small decline in “ other” income being off
set by an expansion of government income. Among Dis
trict states, Utah derives the largest fraction of its in
come from government. In Oregon the principal change
has been some increase in manufacturing income.
TWELFTH DISTRICT AND STATE
PER CAPITA INCOME AS A PER
CENTAGEOFNATIONAL AVERAGE
1929 and 1951
1929
1951
Percent
Percent
u o I--------
STATE PER CAPITA INCOME
AS A PERCENTAGE OF DISTRICT
INCOME-1929 and 1951
1929
Î951
Percent
'?io
The sources of income change
The sources from which income is derived are another
important factor which is subject to change. The source
pattern for the United States appears less changed since
1940 than is generally supposed.1 The main differences in
sources of District income appear in the increase in the
fraction of income originating in manufacturing and the
decline in the “ other” category representing mining, con
struction, transportation and public utilities, and finance.
To some extent this shift in source of income is a result
of a greater increase in wages to persons employed in
manufacturing compared, for example, with the increase
in wages in government. Moreover, the kinds of manu
facturing employment which have expanded in the Dis
trict are those which pay the highest wages. Although
the share of total income derived from manufacturing has
increased more rapidly since 1940 in the District than in
the country as a whole, the District’s proportion remains
1 Data by states showing sources of income prior to 1940 have not been
published by the Department of Commerce.
N
- "
— — V ^
____________
-
Y
UNITED STATES«* ^
90
^
^ DISTRICT
86
September 1952
FEDERAL RESERVE B A N K OF SA N FRANCISCO
TY PE S O F IN C O M E P A Y M E N T S FOR S E L E C T E D Y E A R S T W E L F T H D IS T R I C T A N D U N I T E D S T A T E S , 1929-1951
P e r c e n ta g e o f S t a te Incom e R e p r e s e n te d b y—
Wages andSalaries
Proprietors' Income
Property Income
Other Income
—-...—..............
» •»»»»••»••«
...................... •
1939
19*5
During two decades of pros
perity, depression, war, postwar
boom, and increased unioniza
tion, wages and salaries have
remained a relatively stable
proportion of total income in
the Twelfth District. Income
from property, consisting of
dividends, interest, net rents,
and royalties, has fallen in rel
ative importance and now rep
resents a smaller share of the
total than income from farms
and noncorporate business (pro
prietors’ income) which has
risen as a result of agricultural
and business prosperity. Trans
fer payments from government
have expanded but still repre
sent the smallest share of total
income. They consist of pay
ments which are not made for
current services, such as unem
ployment and old-age benefits.
Different states have had
slightly different experiences
but the District trends also
characterize those of the indi
vidual states. Proprietors’ in
come has risen sharply in Ari
zona, while in other states it is
at 1929 levels except in Califor
nia where a slight increase has
occurred. The relative decline
of property income has been
sharpest in California, the state
in which such income was the
most important in 1929. Re
cently property income as a
share of the total has risen
somewhat throughout the Dis
trict as a result, in part at least,
of rising interest rates and less
extensive rent control.
In all of the District states
government transfer payments
increased at the onset of the
depression and proprietors’ in
comes decreased most sharply.
From 1933 to 1939, transfer
payments continued their in
crease and property income de
clined. Proprietors’ income be
gan its recovery, however, in
Arizona, Idaho, Nevada, and
Utah. During World War II,
property income continued to
decline in all states except
Idaho, while transfer payments
leveled off and proprietors’ in
come rose sharply. In the post
war period, proprietors’ income
has fallen everywhere except in
Arizona, while property income
has increased and transfer pay
ments have been stable.
Over the 23 years, proprie
tors’ income has shown the
greatest variability and wages
and salaries the least. This is
to be expected because of sharp
changes in farm prices and be
cause profit is a residual item.
P
er c entag e
D
is t r ib u t io n
T
by
U
n it e d
S
ta tes
y pe
a n d
T
Wages and
salaries
.1 9 2 9 ., ..........
1 9 3 9 .,..........
1 9 5 1 .,.........
P
otal
68
62
58
I
P
n c o m e
a y m e n t s
a y m e n t
w e l ft h
1929, 1939,
Arizona
T
of
of
AND
D
is t r ic t
S
ta te s
1951
Property
income
Other
income
12
11
9
2
10
15
15
17
23
18
11
1
7
6
34
1
8
6
Proprietors’
income
17
17
27
6
.1 9 2 9 .,..........
61
1939. ..........
1951. _____
60
66
.1 9 2 9 . . . . . .
1939. .........
1951
,.,.
56
58
59
27
27
8
7
8
Nevada
.1 9 2 9 ............
1939 ..........
1951. ..........
68
62
62
18
14
21
12
18
12
3
6
5
Oregon
.1 9 2 9 .,.........
1 9 3 9 .,..........
1951. ..........
65
65
67
22
19
11
9
2
18
9
7
6
.1 9 2 9 . ..........
1 9 3 9 .,..........
1951. ..........
65
62
21
68
19
20
12
10
7
9
6
. . . .1 9 2 9 . ..........
1939. . , . .
1951. ..........
67
66
68
18
16
17
14
11
9
8
6
Twelfth D is tr ic t...1 9 2 9 .
1939 ..........
1951. ..........
62
17
16
18
19
2
62
66
15
11
7
6
United States . . .1 9 2 9 . ..........
1939. ..........
1951. ..........
63
62
67
17
16
17
18
16
11
1
7
6
California
Idaho
U tah
W ashington
1
1
N o te : Figures may not add to 100 percent because of rounding.
Source: United States Department of Commerce.
SUSPENSION OF REGULATION X
The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System issued
the following statement to the press on September 15, 1952 :
“The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System to
day suspended Regulation X —Real Estate Credit-—in connec
tion with its announcement of a period of real estate credit con
trol relaxation prescribed by the 1952 amendments to the Defense
Production Act. The suspension of Regulation X, effective
September 16, 1952, applies to credit terms on both residential
and nonresidential properties. Conventional mortgage loans are,
of course, still subject to basic state and federal statutes cov
ering real estate loans by financial institutions.
“The Board’s action today relates only to real estate credit not
insured or guaranteed by the Government. A statement on terms
that will apply to Government-aided real estate credit is being
issued separately by the Housing and Home Finance Adminis
trator, Raymond E. Foley, who concurred in the Board’s an
nouncement.
“Regulation X was first issued in October 1950, under author
ity of the Defense Production Act of 1950 and Executive Order
10161 providing for regulation of real estate credit terms to re
strain inflation and conserve defense-needed materials. It was
suspended in view of mandatory provisions in the 1952 amend
ments to the Defense Production Act. These amendments re
quire that a period of residential credit control relaxation be
announced if estimated residential construction starts for three
consecutive months were below a seasonally adjusted annual
rate of 1,200,000 units. Information has been received from the
Secretary of Labor that the seasonally adjusted annual rate of
housing starts, as estimated for this purpose, was less than
1,200,000 units in each of the months of June, July, and August,
1952.”
87
M O N T H L Y R EVIEW
September 1952
BUSINESS INDEXES—TWELFTH DISTRICT1
(1947-49 average=100)
In d u s t r ia l p ro d u c tio n (p h y sic a l v o lu m e )3
Y e ar
an d
m o n th
1929
1931
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
Lum ber
Petro le u m 3
C ru d e R e fin e d C e m e n t
87
57
52
52
62
64
71
75
67
67
69
74
85
93
97
94
100
101
99
98
106
78
55
50
50
56
61
65
64
63
63
68
71
83
93
98
91
98
100
103
103
112
54
36
27
35
33
58
56
45
56
61
81
96
79
63
65
81
96
104
100
112
128
165
100
72
76
86
96
114
92
93
108
109
114
100
90
78
70
94
105
101
109
89
105
49
17
24
37
64
88
58
80
94
107
123
125
112
90
71
106
101
93
115
115
90
86
75
81
87
81
84
81
91
87
87
88
98
101
112
108
113
98
88
86
95
29
29
26
28
30
34
38
36
40
43
49
60
76
82
78
78
90
101
108
119
136
101
114
105
118
109
99
107
107
107
107
107
106
112
115
116
114
116
109
142
138
129
130
124
119
84
67
74
80
85
88
112
98
108
116
114
118
83
90
96
96
99
101
93
107
108
110
94
117
108
106
106
106
107
108
107
107
111
113
115
114
114
116
116
94
112
113
120
129
126
125
88
104
96
95
89
87r
109
109
115
117
116
112
106
112
105
90
88
87
84
90
1952
January
February
March
April
M ay
June
July
W heat
C o p p e r3 flo u r3
97
51
41
44
54
70
74
58
72
79
93
93
90
90
72
85
97
104
99
112
114
1951
July
August
September
October
November
December
Le a d 3
T o ta l
W a te rb o rn e
C ar
D e p 't
n o n agri- T o t a l
fo re ign
R e ta il
m f ’g
c u ltu r a l
lo a d in gs store
trai ae«» ■
sales
food
E le c t r ic e m p lo y e m p lo y ( n u m
ber) 2 (va lu e )2 prices*»* E x p o r t s 1m p o rts
power
m e n t4
m ent
68
30
25
18
21
24
28
30
28
31
33
40
49
59
65
72
91
99
104
98
105
108
64
50
42
45
48
48
50
48
47
47
52
63
69
68
70
80
96
103
100
100
113
190
138
110
132
135
131
170
164
163
132
124
80
72
78
109
116
119
87
95
101
101
96
95
99
102
99
103
110
“ 47
54
60
51
55
63
83
121
164
158
122
104
100
102
98
105
119
102
68
52
60
66
77
81
72
77
82
95
102
99
105
100
101
106
100
94
97
100
‘ *89
129
86
85
91
186
"5 7
81
98
121
137
157
140
141
135
141
140
136
111
111
110
111
111
111
120
120
118
120
121
120
92
94
104
101
101
100
108
106
108
106
114
110
113
112
112
113
114
117
201
240
215
187
182
192
147
142
155
172
144
130
142
139
142
141
147
150
150
113
113
112
112
112
113
114
122
124
125
126
125
126
127
86
101
100
106
98
108
96
106
108
116
114
114
116
115
115
114
183
208
210
185
207
146
138
157
143
143
182
ioo
103r
106r
118
llo r
110
BANKING AND CREDIT STATISTICS—TWELFTH DISTRICT
(amounts in millions of dollars)
C o n d itio n ite m s o f a ll m e m b e r b a n k s 7
Year
an d
m o n th
1929
1931
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
Loans
U.S.
Dem and
d ep osits
an d
G o v ’t
d is c o u n t s s e c u r it ie s a d ju ste d 8
T o ta l
tim e
d ep osits
2,239
1,898
1,486
1,469
1,537
1,682
1,871
1,869
1,967
2,130
2,451
2,170
2,106
2,254
2,663
4,068
5,358
6,032
5,925
7,105
7,907
495
547
720
1,064
1,275
1,334
1,270
1,323
1,450
1,482
1,738
3,630
6,235
8,263
10,450
8,426
7,247
6,366
7,016
6,392
6,533
1,234
984
951
1,201
1,389
1,791
1,740
1,781
1,983
2,390
2,893
4,356
5,998
6,950
8,203
8,821
8,922
8,655
8,536
9,244
9,940
1,790
1,727
1,609
1,875
2,064
2,101
2,187
2,221
2,267
2,360
2,425
2,609
3,226
4,144
5,211
5,797
6,006
6,087
6,255
6,256
6,720
7,630
7,704
7,791
7,885
7,907
6,000
5,998
6,204
6,356
6,533
9,058
9,235
9,485
9,584
9,940
6,547
6,576
6,642
6,625
6,720
7,806
7,760
7,787
7,850
7,921
8,062
8,114
8,270
6,543
6,413
6,378
6,313
6,238
6,258
6,507
6,469
9,951
9,420
9,426
9,408
9,306
9,501
9,643
9,679
6,806
6,900
6,915
6,924
6,985
7,083
7,143
7,197
Bank
rate s on
short-term
b u sin e ss
lo a n s 9
M e m b e r b a n k reserves a n d related ite m s 10
Reserve
bank
cre d it11
_
+
—
+
+
—
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
3.20
3.35
3.G6
+
+
+
C o in an d
C o m m e rc ia l T r e a su ry
cu rre n cy in
o p e ra tio n s12 o p e ra tio n s12 c ir c u la t io n 11
«
34
21
2
7
2
6
1
3
2
2
4
107
214
98
76
9
302
17
13
39
21
0
154
110
198
163
- 227
90
- 240
192
- 148
- 596
-1,980
-3,751
-3,534
-3,743
-1,607
- 510
+ 472
- 930
-1,141
-1,582
+
23
+ 154
+ 150
+ 257
+ 219
+ 454
+ 157
+ 276
+ 245
+ 420
+ 1,000
+2,826
+4,486
+4,483
+4,682
+1,329
+ 698
- 482
+ 378
+1,198
+1,983
159
43
121
236
276
+
-
80
18
143
239
102
+
+
+
+
+
84
180
309
176
52
211
45
213
-
228
109
17
237
174
97
208
194
—
-
I ll
+
+
+
+
+
272
102
185
190
288
+
-
126
+
163
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
—
—
—
—
+
Reserves
B a n k d e bits
In d e x
31 citie s3» 13
(1947-49=
100)2
6
48
18
4
14
38
3
20
31
96
227
643
708
789
545
326
206
209
65
14
189
175
147
185
242
287
479
549
565
584
754
930
1,232
1,462
1,706
2,033
2,094
2,202
2,420
1,924
2,026
2,269
42
28
18
21
25
30
32
29
30
32
39
48
61
69
76
87
95
103
102
115
132
41
32
17
18
14
2,312
2,293
2,291
2,392
2,269
129
129
134
137
141
86
20
7
13
49
29
7
49
2,416
2,365
2,313
2,341
2,347
2,209
2,333
134
138
139
135
128
144
134
134
1951
August
September
October
November
December
3.65
+
—
3.82
+
86
42
283
118
279
+
+
+
+
+
1952
January
February
M arch
April
M ay
June
July
August
3.94
3.95
+
+
—
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4*
2,535
1 Adjusted for seasonal variation, except where indicated. Except for department store statistics, all indexes are based upon data from outside sources, as
follows: lumber, various lumber trade associations; petroleum, cement, copper, and lead, U .S. Bureau of Mines; wheat flour, U .S. Bureau of the Census;
electric power, Federal Power Commission: nonagrioultural and manufacturing employment, U .S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and cooperating state agencies;
retail food prices, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; carloadings, various railroads and railroad associations; and foreign trade, U.S. Bureau of the Census.
* D aily average.
* N ot adjusted for seasonal variation.
4 Excludes fish, fruit, and vegetable canning.
1 Los Angeles, San Francisco, and
Seattle indexes combined.
• Commercial cargo only, in physical volume, for Loa Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego, Oregon, and Washington customs
districts; starting with July 1950, “ special category” exports are excluded because of security reasons.
7 Annual figures are as of end of year, monthly
figures as of last Wednesday in month or, where applicable, as of call report date.
* Demand deposits, excluding interbank and U.S. G ov’t deposits, less
cash items in process of collection. M onthly data partly estimated.
9 Average rates on loans made in five major cities during the first 15 days of the month.
10 End of year and end of month figures.
11 Changes from end of previous month or year.
11 Minus sign indicates flow of funds out of the District
in the case of commercial operations, and excess of receipts over disbursements in the case of Treasury operations.
11 Debits to total deposit accounts,
excluding inter-bank deposits.
r — revised.
@FedFRASER