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MONTHLY REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS JOHN PERRIN, Chairman of the Board and Federal Reserve Âgent Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco VoL VIII San Francisco, California, October 20,1924 Summary of National Conditions Production of basic commodities, factory em ployment, and distribution of merchandise in creased in September, and early in October there was a considerable increase in the volume of borrowing for commercial purposes. Production. The Federal Reserve Board’s index of production in basic industries, ad justed to allow for seasonal variations, rose 9 per cent in September, the first advance since last January. Increased activity was re ported in many lines of industry including textiles, iron and steel, and coal. Factory em ployment increased 2 per cent during Septem ber, reflecting larger working forces in nearly all reporting industries. Average weekly earnings of industrial workers increased slightly, owing to a decrease in the extent of part time employment. Building contracts awarded showed a small seasonal decline in 1919 1920 No. 10 September, but were considerably larger than a year ago. Crop conditions, as reported by the Department of Agriculture, showed a fur ther slight improvement during September, and the estimates of production for spring wheat, oats, barley, and white potatoes on October 1st were larger than a month earlier. Estimates of the yields of corn, tobacco, and cotton, however, were reduced. Marketing of wheat was exceptionally heavy in September, and exports of wheat and cotton were larger than for the same month of any recent year. Trade. Distribution of commodities as re flected in railroad shipments, increased during September and was greater than last year, owing to larger loadings of miscellaneous merchandise, grain, and coal. Wholesale trade was 11 per cent larger in value than in August, as a result of increased business in almost all reporting lines. Sales of groceries and drugs were larger than a year ago, while sales of 1921 1922 1923 1924 Production io B u io Industrie« Index of 22 baite commodities corrected for seasonal variation (1919=100). Latest figure, September, 102. Wholesale Prices Index of U. 5. Bureau of Labor Statistic« (1913=100. base adoptedby Bureau). Latest figure, September» 149. Tfcaa* M iia f tUa review Mat t h n regularly will receive It withoat dung« npoa application. 130 MONTHLY REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS meat and shoes were smaller. Retail trade showed more than the usual seasonal increase in September, and sales of department stores and mail order houses were considerably larger than last year. Merchandise stocks at department stores increased more than usual during September, but continued to be slightly smaller than a year ago. Prices. Wholesale prices of farm products, clothing, fuel, and metals declined somewhat in September, while prices of food products, O ctober, 1924 in the year. Larger currency requirements, partly seasonal in character, were reflected in an increase of $140,000,000 in the total volume of money in circulation between August 1st and October 1st. Money rates in the New York market remained relatively constant during the latter part of September and in the early part of October. On October 15th the discount rate of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis was reduced from Ar/2 to 4 per cent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS Factory Employment Index for 33 Manufacturing Industries (1919=100). Latest figure, September, 90. building materials, and chemicals advanced. The general level of prices, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics1 indexes, was slightly lower in September than in August. During the first half of October quotations on wheat, flour, cattle, hogs, wool, and rubber increased, while prices of cotton, lumber, and gasolene declined. Bank Credit. During the five weeks ending October 15th loans and investments of report ing member banks in leading cities increased by more than $600,000,000. Credit demands for financing the marketing of crops and the fall activity of trade were reflected in increased commercial loans throughout the country, and the total volume of these loans rose to a level considerably above the peak of October, 1923. Member bank investments in securities con tinued to increase, and loans on stocks and bonds also advanced. A further growth of de mand deposits carried their total to the highest figure on record. At the Federal reserve banks, discounts changed but little in September and declined during the first three weeks of Oc tober. Holdings of acceptances increased con siderably and there was also some increase in holdings of United States securities. As a consequence, total earning assets during the month were larger than at any time since early Member Bank Credit Weekly figures for member banks in 101 leadin? cities. Latest figure, October 15. Summary of District Conditions A pause in the forward movement of busi ness which began last June was apparent dur ing September, for although the total volume of September trade was larger than in the two previous months, the gains were smaller in many cases than the normal increase at this season of the year. Debits to individual ac counts at banks in the principal centers of the district, an accurate index of general business conditions, when corrected for seasonal varia tion showed a decline for September as com pared with July and August and were near the low point of the year reached in June. Credit demands of the autumn crop moving period have been met by member banks of the district without difficulty, and interest rates have remained at relatively low levels. Com mercial loans of 66 reporting member banks in nine cities increased $15,000,000 (1.9 per cent) during the past month and their investment holdings by $37,000,000 (10.2 per cent). Total loans and investments of the banks, $1,422,000,000 on October 8th, were at the highest point on record. During this period borrow ings of member banks from the Reserve Bank were declining, and the discounts of the latter, at $13,000,000 on October 15th, were smaller October, 1924 than at any time since 1917. A comparison of credit conditions at the beginning- of October in 1924, 1923, and 1922 is tabulated below: Member Banka Oct. 8.1924 Oct. 10,1923 Oct. 11,1922 T otal L oans ............. $1,022,020,000 $1,000,326,000 $ 887,150,000 T otal In v estm en ts . . 399,900,000 350,294,000 338,398,000 T otal D eposits ......... 1,447,102,000 1,303,080,000 1,225,563,000 Borrow ings from Fed eral Reserve B ank. 3,998,000 52,995,000 6,381,000 Oct. 15.1924 Oct. 17,1923 Oct. 18,1922 T otal D iscounts . . . . $ 13,181,000 T otal Investm ents . . 75,963,000 306,383,000 Total Reserves ......... Federal Reserve N ote C irculation ............ 210,127,000 $ 71,217,000 20,579,000 296,789,000 $ 36,580,000 94,068,000 243,081,000 220,519,000 223,519,000 Sept.. 1923 Sept., 1922 Federal Reserve Bank Interest Rates San Francisco (R ates to large custom er b o r rowers a t b a n k s ) .. Sept., 1924 5-5 5*4% 5^2% Increased productive activity, partly of sea sonal character, was reported during Septem ber. Building përmit values did not decline by the usual seasonal amount from August to September (the number of permits issued showed an increase), and for the first time since February, 1924, the number and value of building permits issued in 20 principal cities were larger than in the corresponding month a year ago. Cumulative totals of number and value of building permits issued during the first nine months of this year are less than 4 per cent below the record figures reported for the same period in 1923, when building costs averaged 9.3 per cent higher. Production of lumber increased during September, but the buying activity of the previous month was not maintained and stocks held at mills increased while the volume of their unfilled orders de clined. Producing schedules at the mines of the district continued heavy, the silver mines, in particular, increasing their output as the market price of silver rose (from 68% cents per ounce on August 29th to 71 % cents per ounce on October 20, 1924). Flour millers are proceeding cautiously and their output has re cently been below normal. The scarcity of good local milling wheats and the high prices which must be paid for desirable varieties have not encouraged production in excess of cur rent demand which is reported to be only moderately active. Canned and dried fruit packs are being completed and the products are moving into consumption on a steady mar ket. Changes in volume of employment during September were largely seasonal and did not greatly alter the labor situation. The total number of men employed in the district is still estimated to be smaller than one year ago. The close of the producers' year in agricul ture finds farmers marketing relatively small crops, but generally receiving higher prices for their products than has been the case in any of the past four years. 131 FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT SAN FRANCISCO Distribution of goods was maintained at high levels during September. Retail trade, as indicated by sales of department stores in the principal cities of the district, was more active than a year ago, a larger volume of goods being sold and stock turnover being more rapid in September, 1924, than in September, 1923. A normal seasonal decline from August to Sep tember was noted. Marked improvement in wholesale trade during September was but partly the result of seasonal influences, and comparison of volume of business transacted with figures for a year ago indicates a more favorable situation than has existed for some months past. Business failures have shown a steady downward tendency during recent months. Agriculture The peak of the autumn crop-moving period has been passed, and farmers are now in a position to estimate with some degree of accu racy their returns from the year's operations. Yields generally have been considerably below the bumper yields of last year and slightly below the average of recent previous years, but prices of an important list of farm products, both in dollars and in relation to prices of nonagricultural commodities, have been higher than in any major marketing period since the depression of 1921. The most notable reduction in yield of an important crop has been the decline in district production of wheat, the October 1st estimate of 71,879,000 bushels being less than one-half the estimated yield in 1923, when a record crop of 144,191,000 bushels was produced. Poor con dition of the soil at planting time and unusually dry weather during most of the growing sea son were the principal causes of the unsatisfac tory harvest. For the United States as a whole the 1924 wheat crop, now estimated at 856,000,000 bushels, is slightly larger than the 1923 crop (837,000,000 bushels). The accompanying table shows estimated yields of some of the principal crops of the dis trict harvested during the past month, and the average farm value of these crops, per unit of production, on September 15th of the years 1924 and 1923. Production Estimated Farm Oct. l t Sept. 1, Actual Sept. 15, U nit 1924 1924 1923 1524 Wheat . ...b u . 71.879.000 69.875.000 144,191,000 $ l.I8 t $ .851 3.171.000 2.734.000 5,725,000 4.10* 3.96* Beans . — bu. .651 Potatoes ..b u . 28.609.000 30.559.000 35,323,000 .57* Beets, Sugar ton 1.739.000 1.678.000 2,154,000 Apples (com mercial) box 28,068,000 30,714,000 43,959,000 1.20t .8 9 t 1,811,000 76.00* 50.00* Grapes* . . . t o n 1,443,000 1,536,000 •C a lifo rn ia . fW a sh in g to n . J ld a h o . Favorable price movements during the har-g vest season have hastened marketing of crogiH 132 O ctober, 1924 MONTHLY REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS by farmers, reducing, to some extent, the sea sonal increase in demand for credit in agricul tural sections. Comparative data for measur ing the movement to market of certain crops of this district during present and past seasons are presented in Table “A.” In interpreting the figures of wheat shipments, allowance should be made for the fact that domestic ship ments have been much larger this year than last, so that the export figures given do not pre sent a complete picture of the situation. Fig ures of deciduous fruit shipments from Califor nia have been influenced by the early ripening of the grape crop in that state. THOUSANDS OF CARLOADS 22 sheep, expressed in percentages of normal (normal = 100), for the states of this district follow: t— t---- Rantfei Sept. Oct. 1, I. 1924 1923 1924 Arizona California . . 55 . . .. 50 N evada . . . . O regon . . . . U tah ............ W ashington .. .. .. .. 56 59 64 66 98 82 95 100 90 91 95 63 52 56 56 58 68 70 Cattle Sept. Oct. 1, 1, 1924 1923 1924 90 81 83 92 95 92 93 91 96 80 80 70 74 73 80 ^ Sheep ■ ■• Sept. Oct. 1, 1, 1924 1923 1924 82 82 81 73 78 79 87 82 82 70 76 74 78 95 94 98 95 97 92 100 80 83 87 73 78 80 88 Receipts of all classes of meat animals at eight principal markets in the district increased rapidly during August and September, reflect ing, in the case of cattle and sheep, a seasonal movement accelerated by feed and water short ages over large areas of range and pasture country, and, in the case of hogs, a strong mar ket demand at relatively high prices. L IV E S T O C K R E C E I P T S A T E I G H T M A R K E T S Septem ber, 1924.................... A ugust, 1924.................... Septem ber, 1923.................... Four-Y ear A verage* Septem ber .......................... A ugu st ................................. Cattle Calves Hogs Sheep 89,408 77,433 74,806 28,893 26,872 20,343 185,127 159,774 147,026 404,528 294,006 339,027 73,692 66,034 21,216 21,214 125,833 129,608 332,130 267,781 *1921-1924. 1923 1924 Production of butter in the Twelfth District declined seasonally during September, and holdings of cold storage butter at four markets, after reaching the record figure of 8,630,893 pounds on September 1st, were reduced by 19.0 per cent during the month, standing at 7,016,- California Fruit Shipment», 1923-1924 The unusual and widespread drought of the past spring and summer was terminated quite generally by seasonal rains during the past month, and farmers, particularly in the Pacific Northwest, have been able to start fall plow ing and seeding operations. W heat Exports^ Portland and Puget S o u n d .......... (bu.) Livestock—Animal Products Barley Exports San Francisco (bu.) Seasonal rainfall during September and early October benefited the livestock industry of the Twelfth District, replenishing failing water supplies and stimulating growth of feed on pastures and ranges. Livestock are entering winter pasture in fair condition, although in areas where the drought has been most severe the effects of reduced feed and limited water supplies are pronounced. Present feed re serves, which are reported to be somewhat smaller than nonnal in this district, must be drawn upon heavily if the usual numbers of cat tle and sheep are to be carried through the winter months without undue suffering and loss. Condition figures of ranges, cattle, and (A) M ovement o f Crops to Market* T W E L F T H F E D E R A L R E S ER V E D IS T R IC T Orange Shipments§ California . . . (cars) Lemon Shipments§ California . . . (cars) Total Deciduous Fruit Shipmentslf California . . . (cars) Total Deciduous Fruit Shipmentslf Pacific Northwest (cars) 1924-192S Season to Sept. 30,1924 1923-1924 Seuon to S«pt30.1923 1922-1923 Season to Sept. 30,1922 4,321,180 (6.2) t 7,091,965 (4.9) 8,479,625 (8.6) 4,012,727 (21.6) 5,763,645 (12.9) 7,374,715 (17.2) 43,196 (83.7) 48,571 (98.2) 28,169 (91.2) 12,763 (97.2) 8,177 (83.4) 9,613 (92.3) 39,707 38,588 27,069 9,786 16,563 10,112 •Figures in parentheses indicate percentage of new crop only. tPercentage figures based on October 1st crop estimate. ¿Season begins Ju ly 1st, «Season begins Novem ber 1st. 1Season begins about M a y 1st* O ctober, 1924 888 pounds on October 1, 1924. Comparable holdings totaled 4,578,298 pounds on October 1, 1923, and a five-year average of such stocks on October 1st is 3,888,539 pounds. Cold stor age holdings of eggs declined seasonally during the past month. C O L D S T O R A G E H O L D IN G S O F B U T T E R A N D E G G S Five-Year Oct. 1» Sept. l t Oct. 1, Average Butter (pounds) 1924 1924 1923 Oct. lttg *12th District. 7,016,888 8,630,893 4,578,298 3,888,539 United States. 153,271,000 156,440,000 96,117,000 103,623,000 Eggs (cases) tl2 th District. U n ited States. •Four markets. 133 FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT SAN FRANCISCO 389,462 7,416,000 tS ix markets. 516,815 8,778,000 476,920 8,737,000 7,017,000 91920-1924. THOUSANDS significant departures from the general trend of prices were noted in the various commodity groups. Agricultural products quite generally maintained the gains of recent months and the purchasing power of the group continued higher than at any time since the peak of prices in 1920. Among the important products of this dis trict, noteworthy gains in prices of grains, wool, and silver were reported, silver prices reaching the highest point since July, 1923, when Government purchases at $1.00 an ounce, under the Pittman Act, were discontinued. Rising prices for silver benefit not only the silver miners but also many of the copper and lead producers, silver being found in consider able quantities in many ores which are mined primarily for the other metals. Declines in prices of livestock, fruits, copper, lead, and zinc occurred during the month, and lumber prices at Pacific Northwestern producing centers both advanced and declined, the direction of the movement depending upon the grade and type of lumber involved. Details of price movements for certain im portant products of the district and representa tive index numbers of the general price level are presented in Table “B.” Industrial Activity Receipts oi Livestock at Bight of the Principal Markets of the District 1923“1924. (Loa Angeles, Ogden, Portland, Salt Lake City, San Francisco, Seattle« Spokane, and Tacoma included) Price» The general price level, which had moved steadily upward during July and August, was approximately stable during September, but indications are that the upward movement was resumed during the first half of October. No Seasonal expansion of activity in lumbering, mining and other basic industries, and extraseasonal activity in building construction re sulted in further moderate gains in industrial output of the district during September. A slight increase in number and a small decline in value of building permits issued in 20 cities of the district were reported during September as compared with August, 1924, whereas an index of seasonal variation of build ing permits issued on the Pacific Coast indi cates a normal decrease of approximately 15.0 per cent from August to September. Both number and value of September, 1924, permits (B ) Commodity Price*— Commodity Purchasing Power of Farm Products ( U . S. Department of A griculture) 1913— 100 .............................................................................................................. Cattle (N ative Beef) .W eekly average price at Chicago............................... U nit 100 lbs. 100 lbs. 100 lbs. bu. !b. Oct. 3.1924 One Month Ago One Year Age 149.0 150.0 154.0 87.0 $10.10 10.15 13.10 1 .45^-1.49 87.321 90.0 $10.00 9.60 13.40 1.22JS-1.24 H 82.55# 75.0 $10.30 7.70 12.90 1.07^-1.08*4 74.88# 24.50-25.75* •09tf 12.92* 8.00# 69.35# 29.84 23.65-24.82# .1 0 # -.ll 13.22# 7.83# 68.52# 30.74 28.25-28.50# .10K-.1054 13.32# 6.86# 64.20# 31.31 Cotton— M iddling Uplands— W eekly range of spot quotations at New Copper ........................ Electrolytic, m onthly average at New Y o r k ............ *AB published by the “Lumber Manufacturer and Dealer.** lb. Ib. lb. Ib. oz. 134 O ctober, 1924 MONTHLY REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS were greater (by 1.4 per cent and 9.6 per cent, respectively) than in September, 1923. The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics' in dex of the cost of building materials, which de clined from 182 in February, March and April, 1924, to 169 in July and August, rose 2 points or 1.2 per cent during September, 1924, to 171 (1913 prices—100). In September, 1923, the index stood at 182, so that the present level of building materials prices is 6.0 per cent below that of one year ago. The Aberthaw index of the total cost (labor and materials) of con structing a reinforced concrete factory build ing declined from 196 on September 1st to 195 on October 1, 1924. It stood at 204 on Oc tober 1, 1923, following a decline of 2 points (1.0 per cent) during September, 1923. 60 40 AMOUNT OF PERMITS IN M l LI JONS OF DOLLARS erally was at lower levels during September, 1924, than during September, 1923. Stocks of lumber at producing centers are reported to be small. Figures follow (000 omitted) : Production ....................... Shipments ........................ Orders ............................... Unfilled Orders ............. No. of M ills Reporting. Sept., 1924 Aug., 1924 Sept.. 1923 Aug., 1923 (board feet) (board feet) (board feet) (board feet) 608,746 586,568 663,054 664,863 562,598 549,480 582,551 551,354 558,489 616,196 610,721 533,326 407,900 415,523 436,062 434,169 190 181197 193 Active resumption of logging operations fol lowed early September rains which ended the summer period of extreme fire hazard in important lumbering regions of the Pacific Northwest. Demand for lumber in domestic markets was active during the first weeks of September, but subsided during the latter part of that month and early October. Export mar kets have been continuously active during the past six weeks. M IL L IO N S O F B O A R D F E E T 60 0 SO 600 IO V 7 j < \ X m * - H 1i r w 400 I i l l I--1-1—1 ITI i l l l I i l l i_ L i l l I I - J l i 1 i . 1923 1924 Building Permit« Issued in 20 Principal Cities, Twelfth Federal Reserve District. 1923-1924 SHIPMENTS 2 0 0 — O RD ERS • H • • 1 I I L^ L~ n 1 1 1.]E i_ l 1.11 1 111 1 I 11 1 j 1923 Recent trends of activity in the building industry in this district as shown by monthly and cumulative year to date comparisons of building permit figures for 20 cities, are indi cated in the following table: » » il 1 9 2 4 Lamber Production, Orders Received, and Shipments in Twelfth Federal Reserve District as Reported by Four Lumber Associations, 1923-1924 (C) B uilding Permits— September August July June . . . — M ay . . . . — April . . . — March .. February January.. Month in 1924 compared Month in 1924 with same Month in compared with -1923preceding Monthly Camalative Month No. Value No. Vaine No. Value 1.4% 9.6% — 0.1 % — 3.9% 10.1% — 1.5% 0.2 % — 15.1% — 0.3 % — 5.4% 12.1% 11.4% 5.5 % — 3.4% — 0.4 % — 3.8% 3.5% 9.3% 15.6% — 28.5% 0 .5 % — 3.8% — 8.9 % — 11.6% 12.6% — 18.7% 3.7% 1.9% — 11.5% — 7.6% 2.2% — 2.4 % 8.2 % 8.1% — 8.7 % — 12.2% 1.5% — 2.1 % 12.1% 12.1% 11.0% 15.1% 26.3% 18.5% 19.3% 22.5% 5.1% 2.8% 12.6% 27.0% 12.6% 27.0% 14.9% — 9.3 % The volume of lumber produced in the dis trict, as reported by 4 associations, increased seasonally during September, while demand, following the upward spurt of the two pre vious months, fell off sharply with the result that production again exceeded shipments and orders, and the volume of unfilled orders de creased. Activity in the lumber industry gen Berkeley ................. L o n g Beach........... Los Angeles........... Oakland ................. Pasadena ............... Phoenix ................. Portland ................ Sacramento .......... Salt Lake C i t y . .. San D ie go.............. San Francisco------. Spokane ................. Stockton ............... D istrict September, 1924 No. Value $ 805,809 80 223,278 147,417 471 2,368,746 13,090,467 2,502,094 110,300 923,899 320 214,016 2,548,575 19,400 622,016 318 445,525 137 985,567 642 5,671,784 721,990 1,439,970 1,020 203,724 212 231,798 127 546,860 . . . . . . . . .. 12*744 $33,823,235 September, 1923 Value No. $ 765,160 244 110,069 81 296,659 149 1,409,462 380 14,099,353 5,268 2,147,296 1,037 34 267,300 471 1,061,338 71 127,323 1,428 2,378,060 12 16,400 303 429,998 117 953,775 422 1,306,260 648 2,907,389 108 184,685 907 1,403,825 252 158,410 111 316,615 519 507,690 12,562 $30,847,067 October, 1924 135 FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT SAN FRANCISCO Preliminary reports of non-ferrous metals production at the mines of this district indicate that the upward trend in output noted during August continued during September. Silver miners in particular were more active, in con sequence, no doubt, of strengthening world markets for that metal. Production of copper and lead has also increased during the past two months, but prices for these metals have de clined slightly during recent weeks. The gold mines of the district have continued active. Figures of national production of copper, silver, zinc, and quicksilver during August and July, 1924, and August, 1923, follow: N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T I O N O F N O N -F E R R O U S M E T A L S Aug.. 1924 July. 1924 Copper (lbs.) (mine proauction) 133,140,000* 129,486,000 Silver (oz.) (com m ercial bars) .................................. 5,491,372 4,492,351 Zinc (tons) (s la b )............. Q uicksilver (flasks of 75 lbs., e stim a te d )............... 41,775 920 Aug.. 1923 129,377,401 42,913 7751 month. Figures for the industry in California are presented in the following tables : P E TR O LE U M Indicated Stored Average Stocks at Average Daily Consumption End of Daily Production (Shipments)** Monthf Sept., Aug., Sept., Dec., 1 9 2 4 ... 1 9 2 4 ... 1923*.. 1 9 2 3 ... (barrels) 610,274 616,548 858,750 706,427 800 •P relim inary. tC o rrected figure. July* 1924, production reported a t 775,550 flasks in Septem ber, 1924. Review was in error. F igures for lead are not available. A further decline in average daily produc tion of petroleum and a slight increase in stocks, the result of a more rapid decline of consumption than of production, characterized (barrels) 94,546,881 93,804,301 t 89,274,244 Î 95 100 93 134 27,473 33,954 139,960 84,364 •P e ak of production. **These figures do not represent an actual reported consum ption. They are derived by adding reported stocks held a t the be ginning of the m onth to production during the m onth and deducting from the sum of these two figures the reported stocks held a t the efid of the m onth, tS to ck s (refined products excluded) held by the principal m ar keting companies a t all points in all Pacific C oast te rrito ry , including B ritish Columbia. iC om parable figures n o t available. N ote : T he A m erican Petroleum In stitu te , Pacific Coast office, from which source figures on the C alifornia petroleum industry are obtained, changed its m ethods of com piling data of stocks, beginning Septem ber, 1924. GASOLENE Aug.. 1924 July. 1924 5,292,607 41,625 (barrels) 585,521 Ì Í — New Wells - n Daily Produc tion Number Opened (barrels) Aug., 1923 July, 1923 (callous) (gallons) (gallons) (gallons) R efinery O utput. 99,955,286 93,742,087 109,165,919 121,212,438 Stored S tocks*.. 245,834,954 261,419,197 153,605,104 136,585,654 *As of last day of the m onth at California refineries only. n o t include stocks a t d istributing points. Do M IL L IO N S O F B U S H E L S 5 fOCKSO : WHEAT V 'A 1 X M IL L IO N S 4 0 0 3 0 0 T H O U S A N D S OF B A R R E L S STORED ST DCKS OF 6A S O L Z H Z y * (GALLONS) / è lO O 8 0 6 0 500 X* ^ 5 2 / 900 / 2 0 0 IKS OFFi o u y ' C OUI POT OF -LOUR STORED S OCKS OF P rr ROLE U M (B B L S ) 100 4 0 1923 PETROL SUM PROg JCTION (BBLS.) ! 2 0 A * '" * ÌOLEUM SH IPMENTS (B B L S .) IO ------------------- I 1923 1924 Production. Shipments, and Stored Stocks of Petroleum, and Refinery _____ Stored Stocks of Gasolene in California, 1923-1924 ‘ P resen t figures are not com parable with those previously re* ported. See note to petroleum table. California oil field operations during Septem ber, 1924. Both production and consumption of gasolene produced by California refineries increased during September and there was a net decline of gasolene stocks during the 1924 Monthly Floor Output, and Stocks of Wheat and Flour at End of Month of 16 Reporting Milling Companies Activity in the flour milling industry of the district was below normal during September, 1924. Production of 16 reporting mills in creased but 2.4 per cent during the month, com pared with a 5-year average increase of 18.6 per cent for September as compared with Au gust. That the industry is proceeding cau tiously during the present period of scarcity of good local milling wheats, high wheat prices, and but moderate demand for flour is also indi cated by the fact that stocks of wheat, which normally increase during September, declined 28.2 per cent during the past month. At 1,387,699 bushels on October 1st, stocks of 136 O ctober, 1924 MONTHLY REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS wheat held by reporting mills were at the low est figure reported for that date since the record was first kept in 1920. Stocks of flour held by the mills on October 1, 1924, totaled 474,381 barrels, compared with stocks amounting to 420,180 barrels on September 1, 1924, 477,386 barrels on October 1, 1923, and a five-year October 1st average of 440,729 barrels. Figures for the 16 reporting mills follow: Output (b b ls .)___ Stocks* Flou r ( b b l s .)... Wheat ( b u . ) . . . . Sept., 1924 468,689 Aug., 1924 457,579 Sept.. 1923 739,115 Five-Year Ayeft|ef Sept. 557,818 474,381 1,387,699 420,180 1,932,525 477,386 2,328,044 440,729 2,226,286 clined seasonally, whereas there was an increase in the volume of sales to the mining and man ufacturing industries. Percentage Increase or Decrease (— ) in Volume of Sales August, 1924, compared with August, 1923* Total California .................... Pacific Northwest . . . Intermountain States Tw elfth D is t r i c t ......... Agricul ture 20.2 ( — 6.0) 7.8 (10.3) 62.2 (5.7) 21.0 (— 5.1) Mining 10.3 (8.2) 27.4 (11.1) — 7.4 (5.5) 9.0 (8.2) Manu Industrial facturing Sales 8.2 — 13.0 (12.0) (1.1) 4.9 — 7.7 (10.5) (1.8) — 3.8 8.8 (5.0) ( — 7.1) — 11.1 7.7 (7.7) (3.4) •Figures in parentheses indicate percentage increase i or decrease ( — 7 August, 1924, compared with Ju ly, 1924. Number and Distribution of Industrial Consumers and Actual Volume of Sales Number ot Industrial Consumers Indostrial Sale* K. W . H . Aug., Aug., Aug., Aug., 1924 1923 1924 1923 California ................. 83,670 73,170 301,985,208 278,971,232 Pacific Northwest . 14.106 12,314 84,044,893 88,238,204 Intermountain States 5,580 5,456 70,522,293 76,780,984 Tw elfth District ... 103,356 90,940 467,004,396 433,538,418 *As of the first day of the following month, f 1920-1924. The 1924 canned and dried fruit packs have been practically completed in this district. Although official figures of the size of the packs are not yet available, commercial estimates continue to indicate smaller totals than last year. Both canned and dried fruit markets have been firm during the past month, and sea General Business and Trade sonal demand for most fruits has been active. Seasonal increases in the volume of general Changes in the volume of employment in business and trade were smaller than normal the Twelfth District during September were during September, and relatively less activity largely seasonal. Reports both statistical and was reported than in the two previous months. otherwise indicated declines in the number of agricultural workers employed and in the pay M I L L I O N S O r D O L L A R S rolls of the important fruit canning and pack 3000 ing industries, a slight increase in employment in the lumber industry, and but little change in other industries. Employment generally re 2800 mained at lower levels than in September, 1923. E M PL O Y M EN T IN C A LIFO R N IA * N o. of Number of Employees A g J. A ll Io d u tri* ...................................... Stone, Clay and Glass Products Metals, Machinery, and Convey ances ........................................... W ood Manufactures .................. Leather and Rubber G o o d s .... Chemicals, Oils, Paints, E t c .. . . P rinting and Paper Goods......... Textiles ........................................... Clothing, M illinery, and Laun dering .......................................... Foods, Beverages, and Tobacco Water, Lig h t, and Power........... Miscellaneous ................................ Peroentage Increase or Decrease ( —~) September compared sg g f <56 45 145.436 143,182 8,783 8,687 150 114 22 30 63 12 26,098 26,120 27,366 28,462 1,670 3,829 13,953 15,600 5,865 5,909 2,011 2,084 63 140 3 14 7,916 39,852 8,918 1,004 7,978 34,447 8,902 1,164 — 2400 1.5 1.1 0.1 4.0 4.3 11.8 0.8 3.6 ' 0.8 — 13.6 — 0.2 15.9 •Figures compiled by California State Bureau of Labor Sta tistics. Changes in production and distribution of electric energy in the Twelfth District during August, 1924, as compared with August, 1923, and July, 1924, are presented in the accom panying table, compiled from reports of 20 companies operating in the several states of the district. Demands of agricultural consum ers for power to pump irrigation water have continued chiefly responsible for the increased sales as compared with a year ago. During August, 1924, however, agricultural sales de 2600 2200 2000 1924 A \ /0 V A \ 1923 \ ; iS < r >w /\ / 9 v # ' V I / \! If If ¥ _J_1--1—_l_1_l__1_ 1—I—1 1 !.. Debits to Individual Aeeounts in 20 Principal Cities, Twelfth Federal Reserve District, 1923*1924 Debits to individual accounts (bank debits) at banks in 20 principal clearing house centers of the district (probably the best single avail able index of general business conditions) declined slightly during September, 1924, as compared with August, 1924, whereas there is usually a measurable seasonal increase during this period. The figures for September, 1924, were 0.8 per cent larger than those reported for September, 1923, an increase for the year period considerably less than the estimated nor mal annual growth of business in this district. Table “D” shows uncorrected figures of bank October, 1924 137 FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT SAN FRANCISCO debits for the months of September, 1924, and September, 1923, and cumulative totals for the first nine months of 1924 and 1923, as reported for 21 cities of this district. Figures for Phoe nix, Arizona, are not included in the total for 20 cities shown in the chart on page 136. The wholesale trade situation improved dur ing September as compared with recent previ ous months, although irregularities still per sisted. Compared with the corresponding' months a year ago, increases in business of eleven reporting lines generally were larger and decreases smaller during September than during any other month since February, 1924, two exceptions being wholesale shoes and gro ceries. The increased value of sales reported for nine of the eleven lines during September normal annual growth of department store trade. Stocks of reporting stores, despite the increased volume of their business, were but 0.9 per cent larger than a year ago, indicating that retailers are still purchasing cautiously and for current needs only. The annual rate of stock turnover on the basis of September, 1924, fig ures was 2.74, compared with the annual rate of 2.66 indicated by sales figures for Septem ber, 1923. A detailed statement of percentage changes in the value of sales and stocks of reporting department stores in the district fol lows * Percentage increase Percentage increase Los Angeles .. StFTEMBER PRICES 1925*I009&>SCPTIMBERI923SALES O akland ......... Salt Lake City San Francisco Seattle .......... . Spokane .......... or decrease ( — ) in value of sales Sept., 1924, compared with No. Aug., Sept., ol 1924 Stores 1923 5.9 — 12.5 . 6 — 2.6 — 4.8 . 4 24.9 . 4 4.3 — 2.0 . 10 5.4 — 0.1 6.1 . 5 . 5 — 12.6 8.3 — 4.0 , 35 3.3 value of stocks Sept., 1924, compared with Aug., 1924 w 5.8 6.9 — 1.4 9.1 14.4 13,4 — 1.3 5.6 0.5 5.3 — 12.2 4.0 6.7 0.9 ♦Figures for one store included in district figures not included in figures for cities shown above. M ILLIONS OF DOLLARS f1 I 1 II 26 60 100 120 140 Dollar Value of Sales of Representative Wholesale Firm s and General Wholesale Prices in September, 1924, compared with September, 1923 as compared with August, represents, in part, a seasonal movement. Percentage changes in the value of sales of reporting wholesale dealers during September, 1924, compared with one year ago and one month ago follow: Automobile Tires Hardware Shoes . . . . Percentage increase or decrease ( — > in the value of sales during Sept., 1924, N o. of compared with Firms Aug., 1924 Sept., 1923 — 2.9 — 0.5 — 1.0 — 5.0 1.1 42.9 6.3 17.3 — 3.2 1.6 . 7 18.7 15.7 21.1 11.4 . 27 — 9.0 6.3 . 21 6.8 — 7.8 5.1 1—21.3 2.8 — 6.8 The volume of trade at retail, as indicated by the value of sales of 35 reporting department stores in seven cities of the district, decreased seasonally during September, 1924, as compared with August, 1924, but was slightly larger (3.3 per cent) than during September, 1923. The increase for the year period was greater than that which would ordinarily occur with the 22 20 18 16 1024 -, V A /7 s / 12 VV / • 1 9 1 I /V «f \ * * / V s / ID ____—-— 1__ 1 __ i— I__1__ 1—_i__ i__i_ i i i~\ O— Net Sale* ol 35 Department Stores in Twelfth Federal Reeerre Dietriet (D) Bank Debits*— t-----------September----------- \ •-------- Nine Month*— ^ 1924 1923 1924 1923 Berkeley ........... $16,544 $ 14,386 $ 157,624 $ 151,357 Boise ................... 11,868 11,970 101,524 111,047 Fresno ................ 38,920 54,296 283,070 434,522 L o n g B e a c h .... 42,824 57,230 471,388 523,966 Los Angeles___ 650,026 668,498 6,662,915 6,136,425 Oakland ............ 118,325 117,041 1,118,146 1,096,034 Ogden ................ 21,727 24,161 203,505 248,087 Pasadena .......... 26,670 26,450 293,617 279,291 Phoenix ............. 18,498 17,118 180,773 163,865 Portland ............ 167,745 160,282 1,426,690 1,337,839 Reno ................... 7,655 10,120 71,712 90,316 Sacramento . . . . 38,039 35,751 397,671 382,543 Salt Lake C ity . 61,493 58,032 558,062 549,638 San D ie go .......... 44,617 40,095 435,950 412,432 San F ra n c isc o .. 797,843 760,057 7,234,557 7,010,880 San Jose.............. 23,173 21,227 195,111 197,238 Seattle ................ 182,881 169,560 1,614,646 1,505,674 Spokane ............ 48,020 48,987 422,158 434,679 Stockton ........... 27,790 26,363 211,869 214,656 Tacom a ............. 37,699 38,796 362,020 347,869 Y akim a ............... 11,103 11,293 86,273 86,372 T o t al ..............$2,393,460 *000 omitted. $2,371,713 $22,489,281 $21,714,730 138 O ctober, 1924 MONTHLY REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS Registrations (sales) of new automobiles in the states of this district (an index of commu nity purchasing power) were less by approxi mately 13.0 per cent during the first eight months of 1924, than during the first eight months of 1923, but evidence of a recent im provement in the automobile market may be seen in these figures, when it is remembered that registrations for the first seven months of the year were 14.3 per cent smaller than during the corresponding period of 1923. R. G. Dun & Company's preliminary figures of the number and liabilities of business fail ures in the states of this district during Septem ber, 1924, and August, 1924, follow: September, 1924 No. Liabilities Arizona ........................... 0 02 California ....................... 81 $ 789,21196 Idaho .............................. 6 125,933 Oregon ........................... 20 141,686 1 3,200 Nevada ............................ Utah ................................. 9 191,416 Washington .................... 25 175,614 District ....................... 142 $1,427,060 August, 1924 No. Liabilities $ 45,000 1,250,404 6 55,516 35 218,837 0 0 4 42,129 38 525,821 181 $2,137,707 R E G IS T R A T I O N S O F N E W A U T O M O B IL E S Idaho .............................. Oregon ............................ U tah ................................ Washington ................... . Passenger Jan. 1 to Sept. 1, 1924 1923 6,992 6,918 152,403 6,676 24,880 8,504 34,241 29,472 Commercial Jan. 1 to Sept. 1, 1924 1923 775 599 10,963 16,372 840 446 2,077 1,185 740 787 * 3,519 233,622 15,395t 19,389t To ta l (6 states)......... . 201,352 *Not available. tTo ta l of five states (W ashington omitted). Percentage increases or decreases (—) in the number of liabilities of business failures in the Twelfth Federal Reserve District follow: Sept., 1924, compared with Sept., 1923 Aug., 1924 Number of Business Failures........................ 14.5 — 21.6 Liabilities of Business Failures.................... — 7.7 — 33.2 Banking and Credit Situation Commercial borrowing from banks of the Total registrations of old and new automo biles (pleasure and commercial) in six states of district increased moderately during Septem the district (figures for Nevada are not avail ber and early October. The supply of loanable able) during the first nine months of 1924 funds was fully adequate, however, to meet all numbered 1,923,478, an increase of 22.8 per cent legitimate demands for credit without causing over the 1,566,097 old and new passenger cars banks to reduce investment holdings or to in and trucks registered during the first nine crease their borrowings from the Reserve Bank. Commercial loans of reporting member banks months of 1923. National production of automobiles during increased $15,000,000 (1.9 per cent) during the September, 1924, was 12.3 per cent less than four weeks ended October 8,1924, and at $819,during September, 1923. An increase of 2.9 per 000,000 on that date were larger than at any cent in production, as compared with August, time since early in May of this year. During the same period investments of these banks 1924, was largely seasonal. Figures follow: increased $37,000,000 (10.2 per cent), bringing Sept., 1 9 » Aug., 1924 Sept., 1923 total loans and investments to the highest point Passenger Cars ................................. 257,868 251,553 298,600 on record ($1,422,000,000). Deposits, both time Tru ck s ................................................. 28,410 26,781 27,841 and demand, increased slightly during the To ta l ................................................ 286,278 278,334 326,441 month and were considerably higher than one Savings deposits in 71 banks in seven cities year ago. Changes occurring in the principal items of of the district increased 1.0 per cent during Sep tember, and at $1,025,837,000 on September 30, 66 reporting member banks in this district dur 1924, were 0.9 per cent larger than the previous ing the month and during the year are pre record figure ($1,016,605,000) reported on June sented in the table below (increases indicated 30,1924. The latest figure is 8.4 per cent larger by plus, decreases by minus signs). The fig than that reported a year ago, an increase con ures are in millions of dollars, numbers in pa siderably in excess of that which would have rentheses indicating percentage changes. Conresulted from interest accruals at prevailing Chsnge from Change from dition rates. All reporting cities participated in the One Mouth One Year Oct. 8, Ago 1924 increases during the month and year periods. To ta l Loans ...................... + 1 4 Ago ( 1 .4 % ) + 2 2 ( 2 .2 % ) 1,022 Detailed figures follow (000 om itted): Commercial Loans ......... + 1 5 ( 1 .9 % ) + 1 5 ( 1 .9 % ) 819 Per Gent increase Sept., 1924, Number compared with of Sept., Aug., Sept., Sept.* Aug., Banks 1924 1924 1923 1923 1924 Los Angeles . . 13 $ 341,062 $ 337,659 $315,281 8.1 1.0 Oakland* . . . . 7 95,847 9S,205r 89,806 6.7 0.6 P o r t la n d ......... 9 51.928 51,579 47,722 8.8 0.6 Salt Lake C ity 8 29,907 28,988 28,191 6.0 3.1 San Francisco. 14 420,461 415,536 387,127 8.6 1.1 Seattle ............. 14 68,147 67,257 60,743 12.1 1.3 Spokane ......... 6 18,485 18,135 16,285 13.5 1.9 To ta l ...... 71 $1,025,837 $1,014,359r $945,155 T o •Includes one bank in Berkeley which was form erly a branch of an Oakland bank. r Revised. Investments .................... Demand Deposits ........... Tim e Deposits .................. Borrowings from Federal Reserve B a n k ................ + 3 7 ( 1 0 .2% ) + 1 ( 0 .1 % ) + 5 ( 0 .8 % ) + 5 0 (1 4 .3 % ) + 44 ( 6 .0 % ) + 9 2 (1 6 .8 % ) 400 782 638 + — 49 (9 2 .5 % ) 4 2 (1 0 0 .0 % ) Total discounts of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco increased during the latter part of September as member banks resorted to temporary borrowing to meet month-end and tax payment requirements, but in October the decline of earlier months was resumed. At $13,000,000 on October 15,1924, discounts were October, 1924 139 FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT SAN FRANCISCO less by $3,000,000 (18.8 per cent) than on Sep tember 17,1924, when the previous low point in the period since 1917 was reached. Invest ments of the Reserve Bank during this period increased $5,000,000 (7.0 per cent), so that total earning assets, at $89,000,000 on October 15, 1924, were $2,000,000 (2.3 per cent) higher than one month ago and but $3,000,000 (3.3 per cent) less than one year ago. Federal reserve note circulation increased by $1,000,000 (0.5 per cent) during the four weeks ended October 15, 1924, but was considerably smaller than on the MILLIONS OF DOLLARS The prevailing rate charged customers by San Francisco banks on prime commercial paper, such as is now eligible for rediscount under the Federal Reserve Act, declined from 5-5 per cent during mid-September to 5 per cent during mid-October. The amount of long-time credit extended to agriculture by Federal Land Banks and Joint Stock Land Banks has increased in all states of the district during the past six months and is now well above the levels of a year ago. L O A N S O U T S T A N D IN G A T C L O S E O F S E P TE M B E R Arizona ........... $ California ........ Idaho ............... Nevada ............ Oregon ............ Utah ................. Washington . . . 40 0 3 0 0 Federal ederal Land Land Banks Banks Joint Stock Land Banks 1924 1923 1924 1923 4,884,800 $ 4,198,400 $ 1,297,600 $ 1,260,000 20,991,500 17,889,600 13,438,700 11,894,300 23,995,000 22,365,600 1,739,400 1,475,900 240,700 706,400 641,500 374,700 20,475,800 19,358,600 8,581,000 6,900,700 14,254,900 13,617,700 630,750 579,100 29,475,400 27,039,100 1,808,800 1,726,250 Tw elfth D is t.. .$114,783,800 $105,110,500 $27,870,950 $24,076,950 MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 20 0 IO O 1923 1924- Tots! Reserves, Federal Reserve Note Circulation, Bills Discounted, and Investments, Federal Reserve Bank ol San Francisco same date a year ago. Principal changes in the condition of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco during the month and during the year follow (figures are in millions of dollars) : Change from One Month Ago To ta l Discounts ............... — 3 (1 8 .8 % ) Investments ....................... + 5 ( 7 .0 % ) To ta l Reserves ................. + 1 2 ( 4 .1 % ) To ta l Deposits ................. + 1 1 ( 6 .9 % ) Federal Reserve Note Circulation .................... + 1 ( 0 .5 % ) ConChange from dition One Year Oct. 15, 1924 Ago 13 — 58 ( 81 .7% ) + 5 5 (2 61.9 % ) 76 + 9 ( 3 .0 % ) 306 + 7 ( 4 .3 % ) 171 -11 ( 5 .0 % ) 210 Interest rates advanced slightly during the four weeks ended October 18, 1924, but the increase was smaller than that which usually occurs at this season of the year. The follow ing table shows weekly average interest rates on various types of paper in the New York market as reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York: Week Ended Oct. 18. 1924 2 ^ -3 % 3-354 Bankers* Acceptances. 2 Va Week Ended Sept. 20» 1924 2 3 4 -2 # % 3H 2H 1923 High SX 4% Week Ended Oct. 20, 1923 554% SH 4M Total Deposits, Loans and Discounts, Investments, and Bills Payable and Rediscounts of Reporting Member Banks Federal Intermediate Credit Banks (opened for business in July, 1923) which extend credit to agriculture for periods (six months to three years) intermediate between short and long time credit, were at the close of September loaning $6,278,190 in six states of the district. A year ago at this time these banks were loan ing $1,793,600 in three states. The figures follow . Loans Outstanding at close of September 1924 1923 Arizona ...................................................... $ 249,100 0 California .................................................. 5,164,400 $1,558,500 Idaho ........................................................... 44,200 0 Oregon ........................................................ 468,290 150,000 Utah ............................................................. 27,900 0 Washington .............................................. 324,300 85,100 Tw elfth D istrict ...................................... $6,278,190 $1 »793,600
@FedFRASER