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FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO
TWELFTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT
(Jd:o!JJVt. 1959
WASHINGTON
Review of Business Conditions • . . page J42
UTAH
The Behavior of Selected Interest
Rates in the Business Cycle • . • page J46
REGON
~tv
II ;$
0 Jw®li~'t4wr~,.~
ARIZONA
Review of Business Conditions
TABOR-management disputes continued to
affect economic activity in the country in
September. The spreading impact of work
stoppages in the steel and copper industries
resulted in a further decline in industrial output in September. Liquidation of inventories
among primary metal, fabricated metal, and
transportation equipment industries was primarily responsible for the decrease in manufacturers' stocks recorded in August, while
heavier than normal sales of 1959 model cars
accounted for most of the reduction in retail
stocks.
Production bottlenecks stemming from
skimpy steel supplies multiplied rapidly in
September and early October and resulted in
immediate or scheduled cutbacks in the automobile, road equipment, appliance, and other
industries. The number of lay offs in steelusing industries increased after mid-September, adding to the estimated 725,000 workers
already idled by that date as a result of the
stoppages in the basic metal industries. For
example, nearly one-third of the work force of
Caterpillar Tractor Co. was released early in
October and several thousand additional
workers were drcpped from the payroll by
General Motors up to mid-October. In addition, announcements of impending lay offs
continued to mount.
Even though steel mills have resumed operations, furnace repair and general production
problems will hold down the operating rate
for a period of time. Similar obstacles preclude volume shipments of finished steel during the first one or two months. Hence, resumption of steel production after issuance of
the back-to-work order under provisions of
the Taft-Hartley law was not expected to be
of immediate help to industries faced with the
most critical shortages of steel.
Total unemployment, seasonally adjusted,
declined about 250,000 in September, with
moderate declines in both agricultural and
nonagricultural employment. Although there
L
142
was a greater than seasonal decline in the labor
force, the lack of economic expansion meant
that more workers were unable to secure jobs.
As a result, the seasonally adjusted rate of
unemployment rose to 5.6 percent of the labor
force, compared with 5.5 percent in August.
Personal income in July and August was influenced more by the labor disputes in the
basic metals industries than previously estimated. Originally, July income was reported
as rising slightly from June, on a seasonally
adjusted basis, but later estimates indicated
instead a slight decline with further reductions
occurring in August and September. The reduction in income reflected a decline in labor
income accompanying the strikes and was
moderated by small increases in dividend, interest, and transfer payments. Consumer purchases at retail stores also declined in August
and September, the first month-to-month decline since September of last year. Retail sales
in September fell more sharply than in August, with a reduction in sales of durable goods
accounting for most of the decline. A slight
decline was also registered in sales of nondurables.
The declining levels of production arising
from the steel and copper strikes have not
been of sufficient duration to have a marked
impact in the money and capital markets. The
total demand for funds continued strong and
interest rates remained firm.
Labor disputes moderate expansion
in District business activity
Although labor disputes have obviously
held down the level of business activity in the
District, there are numerous indications of
strength in the economy. A substantial number of District workers have been temporarily
unemployed because of strikes. Nevertheless,
expansion in other sectors has been sufficient
to maintain an increase in nonfarm employment. In addition, the demand for credit remains at a high level, consumer markets are
October 1959
MONTHLY REVIEW
strong, and personal income in the District
continues to rise. Construction activity has
declined, but this decline was apparent considerably in advance of the steel and copper
strikes. Labor disputes, however, may have
accentuated the decline. The effect of the
strike is probably most evident in unemployment data, as entrants into the labor force
exceed increases in employment, and in a contraction in commercial bank loans to metal
and metal products producers as inventories
decline.
Employment and unemployment rise
Total employment in the District continues
to rise on a seasonally adjusted basis, but by
less than the increases in the labor force. As
a result, the unemployment rate during August rose to 4.8 percent of the labor force
from 4.6 percent in July. Upwards of 35,000
workers were unemployed by labor disputes,
according to mid-August estimates, an increase of 25,000 workers from July. Most of
this increase took place in the steel industry.
The full impact of the copper and shipyards
disputes will not be evident until September
employment data are released. Even with settlement of the steel strike, it would be some
time before employment fully recovers from
the labor dispute.
Despite the sizable number of workers involved in labor disputes, only Utah and
Washington reported declines in total employment during August, seasonal factors
considered. Practically all of the decline in
Utah is related directly to the steel strike.
In Washington, on the other hand, food canning and preserving, lumbering, and aircraft
firms were largely responsible for the employment decline. Strikes idled 19,000 steel workers in California and 1,200 Bay Area Teamsters. But these losses in California were more
than offset by gains in defense-related firms,
including aircraft, of more than 6,000 workers, and a combined increase of 27,000 workers in construction, trade, services, and gov
ernment. Other District states were affected
somewhat more mildly by the steel dispute
and reported moderate net gains in employment, except in Arizona. In this state, employment rose sharply as the result of the settlement of a construction industry work stoppage which returned 10,000 workers to their
jobs in late July.
District personal income
and retail trade continue strong
Twelfth District personal income, seasonally adjusted, increased slightly between June
and July reaching a monthly total of $4.9 billion, according to estimates by McGraw-Hill.
Estimates for July do not fully reflect the impact of the steel strike on personal income as
the labor dispute began in mid-July. The depressing effect of the steel strike will be more
evident in August income estimates.
Retail sales 1 in the District during August
amounted to $2.2 billion, up 12.5 percent
from a year ago, but were unchanged from
July. Later data for District department stores
indicate that sales weakened during September, with sales 10 percent above year-ago
figures. As shown in Chart 1, department
1
As reported by firms operating 1-10 stores at the time of the
1954 Census of Business.
CHART 1
DEPARTMENT STORE SALES INDEXES,
TWELFTH DISTRICT
(not seasonally adjusted)
lt47-4t•IOO
250
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li>
•.•. . \ '
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.
H•<
. . <} >:• <...
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•··•·•·•·•····•· {.
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<
.., •••• :.:
/ ~(
1•:••.:
·< ..
< ·•· { \ .... < > } > •\ .... >• i (
>
> ) <> \
}
> > >)
! •<
;.;,ij;.;;• /
%•
1.?)
:::... ~ ~L
<
SJ )~
~:~~~
>>•<
.. •
I\
200
••>
•>
. ·)
•
•••••••
••••••••
•••••••
•••••••
150
100
•••••••
•••••••
······•··
M
A
M
J
\
···········
•••••••
•··•·•·
A
••••••••
5
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
................... ,............
0
N
0
143
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO
store sales in the District through September
have been higher each month in 1959 than in
the corresponding 1958 month. Moreover,
the percentage increase has been higher in the
District than in the nation for each month except April when the two were equal. Credit
sales at District department stores were of
greater importance in August than in July but
this is a usual occurrence as regular charge
and instalment sales increase in importance
with back-to-school purchases.
Total new passenger car registrations in the
District for August were substantially above a
year earlier and preliminary data indicate that
this is the largest volume of new car registrations for this month since 19 55. Although registrations were down somewhat from July, the
high level of automobile sa:es was supported
in part by the liberal use of the longer maturities on new car loans extended by commercial
banks in the District.
The demand for consumer credit at commercial banks was strong during the four week
period ending September 30. This is indicated
by a rise of $31 million in the volume of
"other" loans (principally loans for consumer
expenditure) held by weekly reporting banks
CJlART2
CONSUMER INSTALMENT CREDIT AT ALL
COMMERCIAL BANKS, TWELFTH DISTRICT
MILLIONS Of OOLLA~I
JANUARY 1958·JULY 18S8
160
140
144
JFIIAMJJASONOJFMAMJJ
1958
1959
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
A
in the District. Although consumer instalment
credit held by all commercial banks in the
District, a more comprehensive figure than for
weekly reporting banks, continued to rise in
August, the volume extended during the
month was less than that extended in July. The
reduction took place in automobile and personal loans which were about $5 million less
in each category. The condition of instalment
loans deteriorated somewhat in August as delinquency rates rose. Nevertheless, the rates
rem ained below year-earlier figures. A high
level of auto sales in the months ahead would,
of course, suggest a continued strong demand
for consumer credit.
Construction contract awards continue
to decline and lumber prices weaken
Total construction contracts awarded in
the District (excluding Alaska and Hawaii)
continued to decline through August from the
peak levels reached in May. The level of
awards declined 7 percent between July and
August. This decline resulted primarily from
a 25 percent reduction in nonresidential contract awards and was general in all classes of
nonresidential construction but particularly
in the office building and public building categories. Residential construction was about the
same in August as it was in July.
Despite the current strength in residential
construction, lumber prices reflect uncertainty
concerning the future. Prices of both Western
pine and Douglas fir species have been falling
moderately since mid-August. Although this
is primarily a se<,sonal occurrence, industry
sources report that dealers and builders have
also delayed ordering because of the difficulty
in gauging the strength of housing demand
and the availability of mortgage funds. Plywood prices have remained fairly stable during September and late August but with an
undertone of weakness stemming from an excess of capacity in the industry. Some firms
have made appreciable cutbacks in produc-
October 1959
MONTHLY REVIEW
tion schedules, but it is questionable whether
prices can be held even at their current low
levels as the industry enters its three poorest
selling months of the year.
Signs of tightening in the
District money market
Rates, as computed by Statt's, advanced
on outstanding California state and local securities from 3.68 percent to 3.89 percent
during the month of September. Along with
the increase in yield, new bond issues by state
and local governments in the District received somewhat better reception than bonds
issued during the latter part of August. During
September, a total of almost $103 million in
District state and local government bonds was
placed on the market, a considerable increase
from the $44 million issued in August.
Despite the increase of the ceiling interest
rate on FHA mortgages to 5% percent, effective September 24, 1959, the rise was not
sufficient to create a par market for such loans
at District banks. In fact, some commercial
banks in the District report a shortening of
maturities and an increase in down payment
requirements on FHA loans. This tightening
in terms reflects the desire of commercial
banks to better control the growth in their
real estate loan portfolios. Initiation of such
a policy suggests that the inflow of savings
deposits is not sufficient to support a marked
expansion in residential mortgage lending
and/or that rates on other types of loans and
investments are more attractive to commercial
banks than FHA mortgages.
The more conservative attitude toward residential mortgage lending by commercial banks
is reflected by changes in the loan and investment portfolios of weekly reporting member
banks in the District during September. The
volume of real e5tate loans outstanding increased moderately during September with
the bulk of the increase occurring in the first
half of the reporting period. "Other" loans,
principally loans for consumer expenditure,
also increased during September but the bulk
of the expansion came in the last week of the
reporting period.
During most of September, District commercial banks experienced less pressure on
their reserve position relative to banks in
other districts and were heavy net sellers of
Federal funds. While they continued to be net
sellers throughout September, their net position decreased markedly during the last two
weeks of the month indicating a tightening in
the reserve position of District banks. Demand deposits and time deposits decreased in
the four weeks ending September 30, $30 million and $5 million respectively. Furthermore,
holdings of Government securities were reduced by $165 million. Most of the decrease
occurred in the 1-5 year maturity range.
TABLE 1
SELECTED
WEEKLY REP
T
ITEMS OF
M MBER BANKS
lit
s
IN
(Percent change)
Sept. 2, 1959 to Sept. 30, 1959
Assets:
loans and investments
adjusted'
United
States
Twelfth
District
Other
Districts
0.2
-0.3
0.5
-0.1
1.3
0.3
0 .6
2.8
2.0
1.1
7.4
-12.2
-37.6
4.4
-0.9
-11.8
1 .1
1.9
1.1
-3.4
0.2
-
loans adjusted'
1.1
Commercial and
industrial loans
1.7
Real estate loans
0 .9
loans to foreign banks
6.1
loans to domestic
banks
-33.8
loans to nonbank fl.
nancial institutions -0.3
loans for purchasing or
carrying securities 2.4
Other loans
1. 1
United States Government securities
-
3.3
0.3
-2.8
1.0
-
1.2
3.1
-
-0.1
-0.1
0.3
0.0
-0.2
-0.1
Other securities
Reserve with Federal
Reserve Banks
1.5
liabilities:
Demand deposits
Time deposits
1
Exclusive of loans to domestic commercial banks and after de·
duction of valuation reserves; individual loan items are shown
gross.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
145
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO
The Behavior of Selected Interest
Rates in the Business Cycle
prime topic of conversation in any assessment of the current business and
financial picture is the present relatively high
level of interest rates. One means of determining whether or not this is an abnormal
situation is to examine the course of interest
rates in previous business expansions. The
reference cycles determined by the National
Bureau of Economic Research have come to
be considered a standard measure of business
fluctuations, and using these turning points
as a touchstone, some notion of the cyclical
behavior of interest rates may be obtained.
In the period 1919 to 1958 there were nine
business cycles designated by the National
Bureau of Economic Research. 1 If the classical explanation of interest as a price paid for
the use of money is valid, we may expect, with
some degree of confidence, that changes in
interest rates will correspond to changes in
the level of economic activity, even as other
prices rise. Six series of interest rates have
been examined in the 40 years 1919 to 1958.
A
' Sec " The Current Reporting Series as a Guide to Business
Acti vity, " this R eview, Ap ril 1958 for a description of the
NBER method of determina tion of business cycles.
Three of these are long-term rates and three
are short-term rates; similarly, three represent private demands for funds and three are
public or government demands for funds . The
period covered is not representative of the
"average" behavior of the American economy
if such an average may be said to exist, for it
includes the Great Depression of 1929-1933,
which was less a cyclical contraction than a
national catastrophe, and the Second World
War. Since the economy was rigidly controlled during World War II, there is little
point in examining the functioning of a free
market system in this period. Similarly, since
the business cycle of 1933 to 1938 is not a
"normal" period, interest rates are examined
including and excluding this cycle. Table 1
shows the timing of interest rates in the reference cycle.
If there is a typical pattern of behavior for
interest rates, it appears to be that rates lag
behind the turns in general activity. A considerable difference in timing in the average
cycle is evident if the 1933-1938 cycle is included. Interest rates continued to fall from
TABLE 1
COMPARISON OF TURNI
OF REFERENCE CYCLES
AND SELECTED INTEREST RATES, 1919·1958
Unadjusted
Adjusted'
,.--Peak-----, ,----Trough------ ,---Peak---- ,...----Trough--,
Avg . Months
Mean
Avg. Months
Mean
Avg. Months
Mean
Avg . Months
Mean
Lead(-)
Dev iation
Lead (-)
Deviation
Lead(-) Deviation lead(-)
Deviation
or Lag (+ l Around Avg. or lag (+l Around Avg. or lag (+l Around Avg. or Lag (+l Around Avg.
Long-Term U. S. Bonds
Corporate Bonds
Municipal Bonds
Business Loans
Prime Commercial Paper
Treasury Bills*
146
+2.6
+0.7
+3.3
-2.1
+4.8
+2.0
( 2.51
( 1.71
( 5.81
(13.01
( 3 .31
( 4.3)
+10.0
+ 9 .5
+10.2
+ 1.4
+13.7
+ 2.6
(11.41
(10.21
(10.81
( 4.11
(13 .81
( 4.21
+3.0
+1.0
+3.0
+5.3
+4.1
+2.6
(2.31
!1.71
(6.31
(2.71
(3.01
(4.51
*Prior to 193 3, 3-6 month Trea.,ury notes and certificates.
'The adjustment here is the elimination of the 1933-1939 cycle, which was unique for iU; severity and duration.
+3.8
+4.3
+5.1
+3 .8
+5.0
+3.5
(3.81
(3.51
15.31
12.61
(3.41
(5.21
MONTHLY REVIEW
October 1959
their 1929 peaks for almost a decade. The
reason for the low levels prevailing throughout this period was widespread unemployment of labor and resources and the low level
of business borrowing and investment. Not
only were potential borrowers in the private
sectors of the economy reluctant to borrow,
but banks, having been through the bank
"holiday" of 1933, were similarly hesitant to
lend and preferred to put much of their funds
into United States Government securities,
driving the interest rates on short-term Government securities down to the lowest yields
in their history. This period may not properly
be used as a benchmark for measuring interest rates either previously or after, for the very
large excess reserves of banks in this period
testify to the unemployment of money that accompanied the unemployment of labor and
other resources.
Another manner of examining the behavior
of interest rates is to look at the range of variation over the expansion and contraction
phases of the cycle. Table 2 shows the average range of variation from trough to peak
and peak to trough respectively for specific
CHART 1
SELECTED INTEREST RATES
PERCENT PER ANNUM
p
1946- 59
p
p
4.0
3.0
2.0
5.0
:-:-:-:-:-:-:
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
... ....
0
:;:;:;;;:, :;::
:-:-:-:-:·
.. .. .
;:;:;:::;:
T
T
1955
1959
T 1950
1946
*Change in series.
**Long-term bonds include bonds due or callable after I 5 years in the period January 1946-March 1952; after 12 years, April 1952·
March 1953; and in 10 years or more beginning April 1953 to the present.
***Averages of rates charged on commercial loans maturing in one year or less made by banks in 19 cities during the first halves of
March, June, September, and December.
1
Yields are averages computed from daily closing bid prices.
Note: The shaded areas represent periods ol economic recession, running !rom peak to trough according to dating by the National Bu.
;~~~ol Economic Research. The periods are November 1948 to October 1949, July 1953 to August 1954, and July 1957 to April
Source: Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board ol Governors ol the Federal Reserve System.
147
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO
TABLE
2
AVERAGE RANGE OF' VARIAl
EXPANSIO
c
INTEREST RATES IN
Expansion
Contraction
Average
Variation
Mean
Deviation
0.69
0.69
0.95
(0.361
(0.351
(0.381
0.95
0.90
0.99
(0.491
(0.561
(0.441
0.9S
1.81
1.75
(0.731
(0 .701
(0.561
1.06
2.13
2.21
(0.781
(1 .271
(0.96)
.IFIC
9
Long-term rates
U. S. Government bonds
Corporation bonds (AAAI
Municipal bonds
II
Average
Variation
Mean
Deviation
Short-term rates
Business loans by banks
Prime commercial paper
Short-term U. S. securities
RANGE
RIATI
Expansion
Contraction
Average
Variation
Mean
Deviation
U. S. Government bonds
Corporation bonds (AAA)
Municipal bonds
0 .85
0 .82
1.38
Short-term rates
Business loans by banks
Prime commercial paper
Short-term U. S. securities
1.04
2.12
2.38
Average
Var iation
Mean
Deviation
(0.33)
(0.291
(0.181
0.51
0.45
0.78
(0.17)
(0.12)
(0.11)
(0.26)
(0.681
(0.56)
0.35
1.43
2.15
(0.221
(0.79)
(0.60)
Long-term rates
148
cycles of the six rates of interest that we are
considering. The table suggests that interest
rates are much more sensitive in a recession
than in an expansion, responding more quickly to a contraction in general activity. However, the averages for the entire 40-year period are strongly biased by the post World
War I and the Great Depression experiences.
If we isolate the variations of these same interest rates during the post World War II
years, we find that the opposite case holds
true: there is a greater variation in the expansion phase than in the contraction phase of
specific interest rate cycles.lt is apparent from
these differences in the cyclical variations of
interest rates before and after World War II
that interest rates were influenced by a secular
trend as well as by the business cycle. From
II
1919 to about 1946 the level of interest rates
followed a declining trend, while subsequent
to this date they have followed a rising trend.
The accompanying diagram illustrates in a
p
T
p
T
T TREND OF INTEREST RATES, 1945-1959
T
October 1959
MONTHLY REVIEW
highly simplified manner the contrasting
trends of major market interest rates in the
period 1919-1938 and 1946 to the present.
The movement of rates in this 40-year period
is strongly reminiscent of the theory of long
waves in prices, wages, and interest rates advanced by Kondratieff in 1926. The upward
trend of interest rates is confirmed in Chart 1,
where the actual rates have been plotted.
Another characteristic of interest rates suggested by Table 2 is that short-term rates are
much more sensitive to cyclical swings than
long-term rates. This difference in sensitivity
is more apparent than real if we consider the
element of maturity of the debt. The yield on
a specific security is a function of the length
of time that this security has to run before
maturity. The change in the market price of a
3 percent bond with 20 years to run would
have to decline by 13.68 to bring about an increase of 1 percent in its yield, while a 91-day
bill would only need a change of about 0.25
in its price to show a 1 percent rise in yield.
In consequence, the prices of long-term securities fluctuate much more than the prices of
short-term debt, while the yields on shortterm instruments vary by a much wider range
than do the yields of long-term debt.
The specific cycles of the six interest rates
considered here do not necessarily correspond
to the National Bureau reference cycles for
TABLE
DURATION OF' EXPANSION
business activity as a whole. While in the 33
years examined (eliminating the cycle spanning World War II) there were eight reference cycles, from six to eight and a half specific cycles have been identified for the various series of interest rates. As noted in Table
3, with the exceptions of municipal bonds and
prime commercial paper, interest rates rose in
more months of the complete business cycle
than they fell. This is not totally unexpected,
for in general the expansion phases of the
cycle-in which we would normally expect
rates to rise-are of longer duration than the
contraction phases of the cycle. There is such
a wide range of variation in the lengths of the
individual expansions and contractions that
the averages conceal about as much as they
convey. The Great Depression had a profound effect upon interest rates and in most
cases rates fell from 1933 until World War II
and after. In the postwar period, with a much
higher degree of utilization of the physical and
financial resources of the economy, the periods of rising interest rates have been much
longer than the periods of falling rates and
have corresponded much more closely to the
swings in general activity.
From the evidence here examined, it may
be concluded that the rise in interest rates in
the postwar period, and particularly in the
present expansion, is not an unexpected or
3
CTION PHASES OF' SPECIFIC
CYCLES FOR SELECTED INTEREST RATES, 1919-1938 AND 1945-1958
Expansion
(months)
Number of
Cycles
Contraction
(months)
Total
Average
Total
Average
158
198
174
122.61
124.81
119.3)
138
162
197
127.31
123.11
124.61
123.2)
120.2)
126.4)
160
219
163
120.2)
124.3)
120.3)
Long- term rates
U. S. Government bonds
Corporate bonds IAAAI
Municipal bonds
6
7
7%
Short-term rates
Business loans by banks
Prime commercial paper
Short-term U. S. securities
7
7
81!2
I
J
218
162
185
149
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO
unnatural development. In times of relatively
full employment of money resources and other
resources against which money is exchanged,
rising interest rates have a two-fold function.
First, they restrict investment or purchases on
borrowed funds to those uses which appear to
afford the greatest return. The more speculative or marginal investments are ruled out.
Secondly, a higher interest rate will encourage savings or call forth more funds out of
idle balances and so help to meet the heavy
demand for funds. The free market mechanism is an impersonal thing but it is not capricious nor without logic. The price system has
proven itself to be a highly effective agency
for the production and allocation of goods
and services in the commodity markets and
certainly there is much to recommend the
150
same structure in the allocation of funds in
the money market. Rising interest rates are
symptomatic of pressure on the money resources of the community and they function
in much the same manner. Insofar as rising
rates act as a check upon the level of spending as the physical resources of the economy
approach full employment, they act as a brake
upon upward movements in prices in general.
To achieve some degree of stability in the general price level it is necessary that the volume
of spending for goods and services be kept
within the bounds prescribed by the supply
conditions governing goods and services
available for purchase. In this respect, the interest rate is an instrument for obtaining the
most efficient and effective use of the money
supply.
MONT HLY REVIEW
October 19 59
BUSINE SS INDEXES AND BANKING AND CREDIT STATISTICS-TWELFI'H DI STRICT1
(Indexes: 1947-1949
=
100. Dollar amounts in millions of dollars)
Total
nonagrlcultural
employ-
Industrial production (physical volume)'
Year
and
month
1929
1~33
1939
1919
19.'i()
1951
19.52
1953
1954
1955
19!i6
1057
1958
lumber
Petroleum'
Refined
Crude
August
1959
January
February
March
April
May
June
.July
Auguet
Copper•
Steel'
.. .
...
78
50
63
103
103
112
116
122
119
122
129
132
124
55
27
56
100
112
128
124
131
133
145
156
149
158
24
97
125
146
139
158
128
1M
163
172
142
103
17
80
93
115
116
11.5
ll3
103
120
131
130
116
29
26
40
108
119
136
IH
161
172
192
210
22·1
229r
128
130r
130
127
125
179
179
186
1.59
165
134r
119r
1.52
169r
161r
91
119
132
139
129
232
228
112
117r
93
93
93
93
93
119
115
112
112
116
109
110
109
92
92
92
92
92
93
92
92
125
126
128
130
128
128
136
136
161
142
171
178
188
tsR
192
191
168
187
192
213
216
205
136
138
140
144
148
138
118
73
7l
100
114
113
115
116
115
122
120
106
106
108
108
Ill
75e
...
Total
1929
1!133
1939
1949
19!i0
!9.'il
19.52
1953
1954
1955
1956
19.'i7
1958
190
110
163
85
91
186
171
140
132
164
199
22\l
174
87
80
194
200
137
139
176
2.')8
306
210
1958
September
October
November
December
178
174
178
170
237
153
209
168
158
165
160
l!l!i\l
F Pbr un.ry
March
April
May
J u ne
July
August
Carloadings
(numb..-)•
Dep" t
store
sales
(value)'
Retai l
food
prices
...
...
60
99
103
112
118
121
120
127
134
138
137
'57
1.52
157
154
102
52
77
94
98
100
100
100
96
10{
104
96
89
30
18
31
98
107
112
120
122
122
132
1-11
J.12
6·1
42
47
100
100
113
115
113
113
112
114
118
123
139r
139
139
140
140
155
155
156
158
159
92
94
81
91
97
149
140
141
149
147
123
123
123
124
123
141
141
142
142
J.l2
143
144r
144
161
162
163
164
163
161
16.5
163
98
93
97
91
101
9.5
150
155
155
!53
!54
161
Hll
162
124
123
123
123
123
123
123
123
ment
ns
238r
236
240r
212
2.?0r
250
254
269
267
. ..
Waterborne Foreign Trade Index
Exports
Year
and
Month
January
Total
mf"g
employmen!
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 87
52
67
99
98
106
107
109
106
106
105
101
94
95
40
1958
Reptember
October
November
December
Cement
Electric
power
Tanker
Total
!50
247
128
7
io7
2~3
81
108
175
129
145
123
149
117
123
123
124
72
95
121
137
! 57
199
308
260
308
449
575
537
97
118
141
136
137
157
163
183
197
213
213
57
199
660
1,836
4,224
2,803
3,.594
7,029
10.008
8,986
212
207
201
218
130
127
H5
101
607
712
515
762
195
221
235
231
243
181
204
190
178
l!ll
205
228
IH
217
138
131
12\l
96
501
691
652
GOO
;)76
809
263
210
378
273
272
302
.. .
...
...
...
...
.. .
Dry Cargo
loans
and
Dry Cargo
Septe mbN
1~3
88
105
J.tO
Condition items of all mernb..- banks•
Imports
...
97
105
121
130
137
131
...
..
...
Tanker
discounts
2,239
1,486
1,967
u.s.
Gov"t
securities
495
720
1,450
.....
. .. . .
· ·· · ··
. . . ...
7,866
9,220
9,418
11,124
12,613
13,178
13,812
6,163
6,619
6,639
7,012
7,239
6,452
6,619
8,003
11,330
13,.' il6
8,633
14,58CI
13,3.';0
13,4 1\l
13,.'\91
13,812
7,827
7,816
8,026
8,003
6,799
13,375
7,810
9.101
8,182
14,022
13,897
11,022
1-1,176
14, 768
!.'J.OOO
IT>.328
1.5,617
l!i.921
15,978
8,09\l
7,73.5
7,436
7,739
7,511
7.329
7,096
6,932
6,717
88
. ..
...
...
8,8~\l
Demand
deposits
adjusted'
1,234
951
1,983
. .....
.. ....
9,937
10,520
10,51.5
11,196
11,86-l
12,169
11,870
12,729
Total
time
deposits
1,790
1,609
2,267
··· · ··
. 6',777
Bank rates
on s~o rt-1 ..- m
busi ness loa ns'
. ...
. ...
....
....
i66
3.95
4.14
4.09
4.10
4.50
4.97
4.88
4:so
....
4:95
....
....
....
4.97
5:2i
....
....
Bank debi ta
index
31 ciliesiJ
(1947-49100)'
42
18
30
...
..
7,502
7,997
8,699
9,120
9,42-l
10,679
12,077
132
140
!50
!54
172
189
203
209
11,860
12,176
12,395
12,729
11,776
11,836
11,725
12,077
212
217
213
224
12,508
12.210
12.228
12,871
12,520
12,589
12,037
12,018
12,003
12,301
12,399
12,517
12,390
12.378
12,365
218
235
2H
2.J.l
231
235
242
241
238
12,9~5
12,797
12,850
1 Adjuste d for seasonal va.nat10n, except where mdlCated. Except for de partment store statts t1cs, al1mde xes are ba:sed l!POO data from outside sources, as
follows: lumber, California Redwood Association and U.S. Bureau of the Ceusu!;; petroleum, cement, and copper, U.S. Uurea.u of Mines; steel, U.S.
Department of Commerce and American Iron and Steel institute; electric power, Federal Po\ver Commission ; nona,!:!;ricultural and manufacturing
employment, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and cooperating sta te agencies; retail food prices, U. S. Bureau of Labor l::;tatistics; carloa.dings, various
2 Daily a ve rage.
3 Not adj usted for seasonal variation.
railroads and railroad associations; and foreign trade, U.S. Bureau of the Census.
• Los An~Ples, San Francisco, and Seattle indexes combiued.
~ Collltncrcial cargo only , in phys ical volume, for Los Angeles, San Francisco, San
Diego, Ore~ron, and Washington customs districts; startin~ with .July 19.>0, "special category" exports are excluded because of security reasons.
7 Demand depo::~its, e:"tcluding interbank and U.S. Gov't
I Annual figures are as of end of year, monthly figures as of last \Vednesday in month.
deposits, less cash items in process of collection. ~1onthly data partly enimatcd.
s Average rates on loans made in (h•e major cities.
• Changes
10
from end of previous month or year.
Minus sign indicates fiow of funds out of tb e District in the ca.se of commercial opers.t.ions, anti excess
11 End of year and end of month figures.
of receipts over disbursements in the case of Treasury operations.
u Debits to total deposits except
interbank prior to 1942. Debits to demand deposits except U.S. Government and interbank deposits from 1912.
.-Estimated.
r-Revised.
151
@FedFRASER