The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
MONTHLY REVIEW OF B U S IN E S S C O N D IT IO N S ISAAC B. NEWTON, Chairman of the Board and Federal Reserve Agent Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco rol. X I San Francisco, California, November 21,1927 No. 11 S U M M A R Y O F N A T IO N A L C O N D IT IO N S Prepared by the Federal Reserve Board Industry and trade were less active in O ctoer than in the preceding month and were in mailer volume than a year ago. The general *vel of wholesale com m odity prices showed a urther slight advance during the month. Production. Production of manufacturers de lined in October, contrary to the usual sea□nal tendency, while the output of minerals emained in practically the same volume as in eptember. In O ctober and N ovem ber activity f iron and steel mills and of automobile plants ras smaller than at any previous period of the ear. During October, there were also dereases in cotton consumption and in producon of building materials, crude petroleum, and oots and shoes. Output of bituminous coal nd the number of hogs and cattle slaughtered lcreased by less than the usual seasonal mount. Production of flour, copper, and nthracite coal increased in October. Building ontracts awarded increased considerably, wing to unusually large awards in New York ER CENT and Chicago during the last week of the month. The increases were largest in contracts for resi dential and commercial buildings. Favorable weather during October in agri cultural states resulted in an increased yield for late fall crops. The indicated production of corn, according to the November crop report of the Department of Agriculture, was placed at 2,753,000,000 bushels, an increase of 150,000,000 bushels over the estimate of the previous month and 106,000,000 bushels over the yield a year ago. Larger yields, as compared with the previous month’s estimates, were also indi cated for cotton, tobacco, and potatoes. Trade. Trade at wholesale and retail showed less than the usual seasonal increase in O cto ber compared with O ctober a year ago. W h ole sale trade in all leading lines, except meats and drugs, was smaller than last year. Department store sales were approximately 3 per cent smaller than in October, 1926, while sales of mail order houses and chain stores were somePER CENT iso | r~ 50 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 PRODUCTION OF M A N U F A C T U R E S A N D M IN ER ALS Index numbers of production of manufactures and minerals, adjusted for seasonal variations (1923-1925 average = 100). Latest figures, October, manufactures, 102; minerals, 105. W H O L E SA L E PRICES Index of United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (1926 prices »100, base adopted by Bureau). Latest figure, October, 97.0. Requests for early numbers of this Review have been received from universities and libraries whose files : the publication are incomplete. It would be appreciated if those readers who have available copies of the eview for months prior to January, 1923, would forward them to the Federal Reserve Agent, Federal Re?rve Bank, San Francisco. 2 M O N T H L Y REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS ^hat larger than a year ago. Inventories of lerchandise carried by wholesale firms were mailer in all reporting lines at the end of the lonth than in September. Compared with a ear ago, stocks were smaller in all lines exept drugs. Stocks of department stores inreased during October in anticipation of the rowth in sales that usually occurs in Novemer and December, but at the end of the month hey were no larger than a year ago. Freight N o v e m b e r , 1927 decreases in prices of hogs, cotton, silk, coal, petroleum, and iron and steel. Bank Credit. Total loans and investments of member banks in leading cities increased by nearly $300,000,000 during the latter part of October and the first half of November, and on November 16th, were the highest ever reported. Investments increased by more than $200,000,000 during the same period, reflecting in large part purchases of Treasury certificates B IL L IO N S OF D O L L A R S 2 T O T A L zJ \J R E S E R V E C R E D IT BAI \J A D IS C O U K IT S M E M B E R , FO R B A N K S U .S. S E C U I C I T I E S d \ y : 1923 1924 1925 1926 arloadings declined in O ctober and the first art of November, and were smaller than in the □rresponding period of last year for all classes f freight except grain and grain products. Prices. W holesale com m odity prices inreased slightly during October, continuing the dvance which began early in the summer, and le Bureau of Labor Statistics’ index for O ctoer was higher than for any previous month of lis year. The Septem ber-to-October advance 1 the average for all commodities reflected lcreases in the prices of livestock, meats and airy products. Prices of corn, cotton, coal, letals, paint materials, and automobile tires eclined. During the first three weeks in N o ember there were increases in the prices of rains, cattle, copper, hides, and rubber, and j\ 1 A C C EP T A N C E S 1 9 23 1924 1925 1926 19 27 R E SE R V E B A N K C R E D IT M on th ly averages o f daily figures fo r 12 F ed era l R e se rv e B anks. Latest figures are averages o f first 23 days in N o v e m b e r . issued on November 15th. Loans on securities increased by about $125,000,000, while loans chiefly for commercial and agricultural pur poses declined from the seasonal peak reached early in October. There was a continued in crease in the demand for reserve bank credit between October 19th and N ovem ber 23rd, arising chiefly out of further exports of gold. Discounts for member banks declined som e what, while acceptances and holdings of United States government securities increased. Condi tions in the money market remained m oder ately easy during the first weeks of November. Call loan rates continued at the level reached in the latter part of October, and rates on prime commercial paper and bankers’ accept ances were unchanged. F E D E R A L R E S E R V E D IS T R IC T C O N D IT IO N S Production in the Twelfth Federal Reserve district has recently been below the levels of a ear ago, but distribution and consumption ave been well maintained. During October, }27, industry, generally, operated at slightly >wer levels than in October, 1926, and, if lowance be made for usual seasonal fluctuaons, was less active than in September, 1927. ctivity in distribution and trade during Oc)ber approximated that of the previous month / ...........1 1927 M E M B E R B A N K C R E D IT M on th ly averages o f w e e k ly figures for ban ks in 101 leading cities. Latest figures are averages for first three w e e k ly report dates in N o v e m b e r. TW ELFTH -V ' and was slightly greater than in the same month a year ago. The district’s abundant crops have been m oving to market in an orderly manner. The anticipated autumn expansion in demand for primary credit reached its maximum during early October, with the peak of the fall crop movement. Contrary to the experience of most previous years, the 1927 autumn peak in mem ber bank loans was lower than the spring peak, . reflection of the moderate recession in busitess which has been in progress since early ummer. Building and lumbering were less active durng October, 1927, than one month ago or one rear ago. Output of flour mills, while greater han last year, did not show the full seasonal ncrease during the month. If allowance be nade for seasonal movements, railway freight arloadings and sales at wholesale were larger iuring O ctober than during September, while ales at retail were smaller. The physical rolume of goods moved through channels of iistribution is estimated to have been larger iuring October, 1927, than during the correponding month a year ago. This bank’s index of daily average check paynents (bank debits) adjusted for seasonal ariations declined from 125 in September (reised figure) to 124 in October (1923-1925 daily vera ge= 1 0 0 ). A year ago the index stood at 22 ^ BANK DEBITS*—Twelfth District Sept., 1927 Aug., 1927 Oct., 1926 Sept., 1926 ^ith S ea son a l A d j u s t m e n t .. . 124 Without S e a s o n a l A d ju s t m e n t 139 Oct., 1927 1250 1340 125 HI 122 121 124 120 D a ily a v e r a g e O R evised. p a y m e n ts , ID E X v o lu m e of ch eck 1 9 2 3 -1 9 2 5 = 1 0 0 . N U M B E R 1 9 1 9 -1 9 2 6 T R E N D *' ^ \l A -------------- W I T H i S E AS< D N A L i -------------- W I T H O U T m— 1923 A D v,iU S T M E N T A D J U S T M E N T ------------------------1------------------------!------------------------1------------------ W 1 9 2 -4 1925 1926 1927 BANK D E B I T S -T W E L F T H DISTRICT Index for 20 principal cities, Phoenix, Arizona, not included (daily averages, 1923-1925 average ==100). Latest figures,October, with ______ adjustment, 124; without adjustment, 139. Sased upon average month to month increase during: the years 1919 to 1926 inclusive. igriculture Seasonal rains in the Pacific Northwest durig late O ctober and early N ovember continued d hamper late harvesting operations, but livetock ranges and fall-sown grains were beneted. In the southern portion of the district he first seasonal rains fell during late October, i minimum of damage to drying fruit crops and ite maturing field crops was reported. Tem peratures were generally normal throughout he district. No new official estimates of production of /heat in the Pacific Northwest were made durig the month, but it is reported that recent nfavorable weather conditions have materially Dwered the quality and quantity of wheat har 83 FEDERAL RESERVE AG EN T A T SAN FRANCISCO N ov em b er, 1927 vested. Exports of wheat from Puget Sound and Columbia River ports during the period July 1 to November 1, 1927, totaled approxi mately 27,526,000 bushels as compared with 20.191.000 bushels shipped during the same period of 1926 and with average exports of 11.807.000 bushels during the corresponding period for the five years, 1921-1925. Preliminary United States Department of Agriculture estimates of field crop production in the Twelfth District during 1927 are given in the table below. Production of potatoes, rice, and sugar beets appears to have been approxi mately 34, 11, and 59 per cent larger, respec tively, than a year ago, while production of cotton and beans was approximately 28 and 4 per cent less, respectively, than in 1926. W et weather during late October handicapped har vesting of the late top crop of cotton in CaliPR O D U CTIO N *—Field and Grain Crops Preliminary Estimate Actual N ov.l, 1927 1926 Wheat (b u s h e ls ) T w e lfth D i s t r i c t ............ ............ U n ite d States .............. ............ Five-Year (1922-1926) Average 1 34 ,765 t 866,538 103,368 832,809 102,989 807,731 4 1 ,3 1 4 f 264,703 43,053 188,340 40,609 192,707 Barley (b u s h e ls ) T w e lft h D i s t r i c t ............ ............ U n ite d S ta te s ............... ............ Rice (b u s h e ls ) T w e lft h D i s t r i c t ! .......... U n ite d S tates ............... Beans (b u s h e ls ) T w e lft h D i s t r i c t § .......... U n ite d S ta te s ............... C o tto n (b a le s ) T w e lft h D is tr ic t| | .......... U n ite d S tates ............... Potatoes (b u s h e ls ) T w e lft h D i s t r i c t ............ U n ite d S ta te s ............... Sugar Beets (t o n s ) T w e lfth D i s t r i c t s .......... U n ite d S ta te s ............... H op s (p o u n d s) T w e lfth D i s t r i c t ............ ............ ............ 39,299 8,905 7,986 41,006 6,084 36,387 ............ ............ 6,487 18,112 6,739 17,138 5,593 16,140 ............ ............ 181 12,842 253 17,977 174 13,649 ............ ............ 55,577 400,305 41,506 356,123 36,661 394,182 ............ ............ 1,422 7,887 892 7,223 1,642 6,942 ............ 2 9 ,3001- 34,838 26,237 *000 om itte d . f A s o f O c t o b e r 1, 1927. $ C a lifo rn ia . § C a lifo rn ia an d I d a h o . ||Arizona an d C a lifo rn ia . ftC alifornia, I d a h o , and U ta h . S o u r c e : U n ite d S tates D e p a r tm e n t o f A g r ic u ltu r e . The harvest of deciduous fruits is now com plete and previous forecasts of production have quite generally been substantiated. Carlot ship ments of apples from the principal producing sections of the district, during the 1927 ship ping season to N ovember 1st, were approxi mately 28 per cent smaller than a year ago. Returns to the growers are reported to be more satisfactory than last year, despite increased costs of cleaning fruit as a result of spray resi due regulations. Production estimates follow : C O M M E R C IA L APPLE PR O D U CTIO N *—Twelfth District and United States Preliminary Five-Year Estimate Actual (1922-1926) Nov. 1,1927 1926 Average C a lifo rn ia ............................................. I d a h o ..................................................... O r e g o n ................................................... U ta h ....................................................... W a s h in g to n ........................................ (bushels) 4,413 4,272 3,285 429 20,445 T o ta l ................................................. U n ite d S ta tes ................................... 32,844 72,180 (bushels) 6,144 2,775 5,100 480 25,650 40,149 118,233 *000 omitted. Source : United States Department of Agriculture. (bushels) 4,881 3,615 4,502 621 24,261 37,880 111,130 November, 1927 M O N T H L Y R EVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS The peak of the 1927 grape shipping season was passed during October. Grape lipments to Eastern markets decreased fol>wing the late O ctober rains. It is estimated lat 285,000 tons of raisins have been dried durig 1927, as compared with 272,000 tons dried i 1926. Production estimates of grapes are iven b e lo w : l California PRODUCTION OF GRAPES - California (in tons - fresh basis) 1927* 1926f Nov.l, Nov.l, Nov.l, Nov.l, Nov.l, Nov.l, 414,000 395,000 1,241,000 395,000 339,000 1,178,000 T o ta l .............................................. 2,372,000 2,050,000 1,912,000 ’ reliminary estimate N ovem ber 1st. fl5 ,0 0 0 tons not harvested. $138,000 tons not harvested, m rce: California Co-operative Crop Reporting Service. The 1927 Valencia orange crop in California ; estimated at 12,700,000 boxes as compared ith approximately 11,260,000 boxes produced l 1926. The estimated production of the 1927228 Navel orange crop is 11,200,000 boxes s compared with approximately 12,154,000 oxes produced during the 1926-1927 season. Ithough Navel oranges are ripening slowly lis year, some shipments of this crop have Iready been reported. Shipments of oranges nd lemons from California during October, ?27, amounted to 2,646 and 606 carloads, repectively, as compared with 2,868 and 801 car>ads during O ctober, 1926. Shipments of all ranges from California during the crop year iovember 1,1926, to N ovem ber 1, 1927, totaled 7,163 carloads. There were 50,030 carloads lipped during the season ending Novem ber 1, 326. During the five seasons, 1922-23— 19267y shipments for the crop season ending N o ember 1st averaged 48,686 carloads. Livestock have gone to winter ranges in good Dndition. Plentiful supplies of range forage nd hay for supplementary feeding purposes 4) Employment— Industries -Californi ---- Oretfonr" No. of No.of Employees —s No. r- Employees —» No. of Oct., Oct., of Oct.. Oct., 1927 1926 Firms 1927 1926 Firms 151,649 166 7,876 5 27,774 61 2,809 11 8,473 33,101 3,452 8* 47 , 9 65,498 4f 2,666 34 29.621 ( - 6 .3 ) 214 (20.2) 16,822 (— 7.4) 2,028 (— 10.7) 434 (2 .1 ) 4,172 (— 1.9) ... 5,951 (— 5.5) 31,600 . . . U ta h .................... Washington . . . . 18,176 2,271 425 4,253 .. • 6,297 1927 95 81 93 . 77 . 93 . 105 1926 78 81 59 82 65 67 90 1927 95 89 96 98 91 97 96 1926 88 90 86 89 85 87 92 1927 95 90 96 98 91 98 97 1926 93 91 85 91 86 90 94 Source: United States Department of Agriculture. Industry During October, industry,generally, operated at levels slightly below those of a year ago, and, if allowance be made for usual seasonal fluctua tions, was less active than in September. The reported volume of employment in the manu facturing and building industries was smaller in October, 1 9 2 7 , than in either September, 1 9 2 7 , or October, 1 9 2 6 . A s is usual during the autumn and winter months in this district, the release of workers from seasonal harvesting operations and from fruit and vegetable can ning and packing has contributed to a surplus of labor now present in most sections of the district. Because a building permit ordinarily is issued some time prior to commencement of construc tion on a given project, data on value of building permits issued tend to indicate trends in building construction activity. The cumula tive value of building permits in the important cities of this dstrict has been considerably smaller, throughout 1 9 2 7 , than in each of the previous four years and has been only slightly larger than the figures for 1 9 2 2 . This decline has been reflected in building construction ac tivity exclusive of public and engineering proj- (B) Building Perm its— 178 Laundering only, fln clu d e s the following industries: metals, m achinery and con veyan ces; leather and rubber g o o d s ; chemicals, oils and p a in ts; printing and paper goods, igures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from O cto ber, 1926. (100 = Normal) 19251 470,000 468,000 1,434,000 11 Industries......... 793 145,436 ( -4 .1 ) :one, Clay and Glass P roducts. 7,783 51 (— 1.2) umber and W o o d M anufactures . . 125 28,969 (4 .3 ) extiles ................... 18 2,791 (— 0.1) lothing, M illinery and Laundering. 68 8,445 (— 0 .3 ) oods, Beverages and T o b a c c o ... 170 33,904 (2 .4 ) ^ater, L igh t and Power ................. 4 3,456 (0 .1 ) ther In d u stries!. 343 57,886 — 11.6) ( iscellaneous . . . . 14 2,202 ____ ( — 17.4) CONDITION OF LIVESTOCK AND RANGES t-----Ranges-----* /-----Cattle-----> ,-----Sheep---- \ ine Grapes .................................. ible Grapes ................................ aisin Grapes ........................... r during the 1927-1928 winter season are re ported. The bulk of range lambs and range cattle have moved to fall markets and to feedlots at satisfactory prices. A strong demand exists for breeding stock. Condition figures of ranges, cattle and sheep fo llo w : Berkeley ................. Boise ....................... Fresno .................... Long Beach .......... Los Angeles .......... Oakland .................. Ogden ...................... Pasadena ................ Phoenix .................. Portland .................. Reno ........................ Sacramento ............ Salt Lake City . . . . San Diego .............. San Francisco........ San Jose ................ Seattle ..................... Spokane .................. Stockton ................ Tacom a District ................ October, 1927 October, 1926 No. Value No. Value 327 $ 648,164295 $ 432,177 123 69,658 102 57,920 100 193,909 121 83,860 422 634,655 368 497,120 3,676 10,388,098 3,482 9,950,229 647 1,444,600 970 1,777,085 25 47,800 20 49,350 227 592,413 309 858,431 103 444,673 145 295,361 976 2,212,380 1,229 2,624,320 23 76,450 17 92,875 276 363,762 249 615,413 70 349,767 92 326,005 787 1,010,227 862 1,637,331 769 2,518,374 849 5,649,690 85 300,345 142 295,400 839 1,296,255 923 1,457,965 225 461,755 233 382,785 83 145,753 102 126,060 188 694,590 223 440,775 9,971 $23,893,628 10,733 $27,650,152 ío v e m b e r , 1927 fe d e r a l rese rv e a g e n t a t sa n fr a n c is c o cts, a branch of construction which is reorted to have been more active this year than i recent previous years. Data for 92 of the istrict’s cities, compiled by S. W . Straus and Company, reveal a September-to-October, 1927, eduction in value of permits issued amounting } 2.2 per cent. A s compared with October, 926, value of permits issued in these cities durig October, 1927, was smaller by 16 per cent. A further fractional decrease in the wholesale rices of building materials is indicated by the )ctober, 1927, index published by the United tates Bureau of Labor Statistics. Standing at 1.6 (1926 prices=100) for October, 1927, the idex of building materials prices registered a ecline of 8.4 per cent from the level of one ear ago. The Aberthaw index of industrial uilding costs, including both labor and mairials, was unchanged during October, 1927, nd rested at 191 (1914 costs= 100) compared rith 197 for October, 1926. Production of lumber1 failed to show the sual seasonal increase during October. Figures Eoutput reported by four associations whose lembers operate in this district were larger uring October, 1927, than during October, 226. The increase was due chiefly to the larger umber of mills reporting this year, however, nd if allowance be made for this factor, it is robable that production activity during Oc)ber, 1927, was no greater than a year ago. hipments increased during October, but were nailer than production, and stocks at mills inreased. Shipments were larger than new orders iceived, the excess approximating the decline i unfilled orders during the month. LUMBER*—Twelfth District Oct., 1927 Sept, 1927 (board feet) (board feet) 831,839 835,5300 roduction ......................................... lipments ........................................... 777,485 749,3930 rders .................................................. 732,545 730,6820 nfilled O rderst ............................. 452,670 483,681 o. of M ills R eporting^...............193 193 Oct., 1926 (board feet) 790,376 722,749 709,414 486,604 181 ^.s reported by four associations, 000 omitted except in case of number of mills reporting. fReported by three associations. The figures are not strictly comparable with other figures appearing in the table. ^Average. ORevised. jurce: National Lum ber Manufacturers Association. Monthly movement of California petroleum Lto consumption channels, throughout 1927 to ate, has generally exceeded production. Prouction has tended downward during the year nd stocks of crude oil have been reduced by ver 4 million barrels (3.4 per cent) since Janury 1, 1927. Average daily flow of petroleum *om wells during October was 1.3 per cent nailer than in September, 1927. The rate of En the M onthly Review for October, 1927, on page 77, the fol lowing statement appears: “ Current information, both statis tical and non-statistical, indicates that lumber mills of the district cut more lumber during September than during A u gu st.” The statement should read : “ Current information, both statistical and non-statistical, indicates that lumber mills of the district cut less lumber during September than during A u g u st.” 85 consumption of crude oil during October changed little from that of September, 1927, and stocks of petroleum declined further. Out put of petroleum during October, 1927, aver aged 2.5 per cent larger than in October, 1926. PETROLEUM—California Indicated Average Stored r - New Wells -> Average Daily Stocks at Daily Daily Consumption End of Number ProducProduction (Shipments) Month Opened tion (barrels) (barrels) (barrels) O ct., 1 9 2 7 .. .. 627,384 659,000 115,435,022 Sept., 1 9 2 7 ... . 635,483 659,405 116,415,194 O ct., 1 9 2 6 .... 611,808 610,795 118,911,731 So urce: 61 51 73 (barrels) 26,101 18,559 50,986 Am erican Petroleum Institute. Figures of national non-ferrous metals pro duction, together with a guide to the propor tionate importance of this district in such pro duction, are presented in the following table : NON-FERROUS METALS National Production Oct., Sept., Copper (short tons) (mine 1927 1927 Oct., 1926 production) ..................... 68,828 65,936 75,643 Lead (sh ortton s) (cru d e )f 56,740 53,204 63,250 Zinc (short tons) (s la b ) . 50,185 47,735 54,979 Silver (o z.) (com m ercial bars) .................................. 4,930,000 4,641,000 5,011,000 Px e*UCe“t Produced in 12th Dist.* in 1926 64.1 43.5 13.3 69.7 *Including all of Arizona, the five southeastern counties of which are in the Eleventh Federal Reserve D istrict, fInclud es figures for M exico. Output of flour in this district during O cto ber, as reported by 13 large operators, con tinued at levels above those of a year ago, but was nearly 10 per cent smaller in volume than the average output for that month during the past five years. Flour production usually reaches a peak for the year during October and, as usual, output of flour increased during October, 1927, as compared with the previous month. The September-to-October increase amounted to only 10.5 per cent, however, as against a five-year (1922-1926) average in crease of 17.2 per cent. The reported increase in stocks of flour at mills during O ctober was relatively as large as the increase in output. Millers' stores of wheat increased little during October, whereas the average September-toOctober increase in recent years has been nearly 50 per cent. The small increase this year was probably largely due to a later agricul tural season and unfavorable weather condi tions during the harvest period which resulted in a considerable quantity of wet wheat. A quiet export market for flour, due in part to lower price quotations in Canada, has recently been reported. FLOUR MILLING* Twelfth District Oct., 1927 O utput ( b b l s . ) . . . 554,407 S to c k s! Flour ( b b l s .) .. 410,905 W h ea t ( b u . ) . . . 3,188,882 Sept., 1927 Oct., 1926 Five-Year Average Oct., 1922-1926 501,593 499,766 614,374 371,865 3,090,994 388,868 4,068,546 476,385 3,685,405 *D ata from one mill are temporarily unavailable. Figures pre sented in the table are based on thirteen m illing factors, in stead of fourteen as heretofore. f A t end of month. distribution and Trade A ctivity in distribution and trade during Oc:ober, 1927, approximated that of September, 1927, and was somewhat greater than in O ctoDer, 1926. Value of sales at retail was slightly ligher and of sales at wholesale slightly lower :han during October, 1926. If allowance be nade for changing price levels, the volume of yoods m oved through distributive channels luring O ctober was probably larger this year than last year. Railway freight carloadings in the district increased slightly during the month and were 2.6 per cent larger than in October, a year ago. The increase for the month was general for all classes of commodities. M ore carloads of live stock, sand, stone and gravel, and perishables were moved during October, 1927, than during October, 1926. Reported retail sales increased 0.6 per cent during October, 1927, as compared with O cto ber, 1926. This bank’s index of department store sales, adjusted for seasonal variation, de clined from 121 in September, 1927 (1923-1925 daily average=100) to 113 in October, 1927. The sharp increase in the index during Sep tember and the subsequent decline in October was the result largely of special sales conditions in Los Angeles during the earlier month. O cto ber sales showed approximately the usual sea sonal change as compared with August, when the index stood at 112. O ctober sales in San Francisco, Seattle, and Salt Lake City were larger, and in Los Angeles and Spokane were smaller, than a year ago. ,-------------- NET SALES*--------------->STOCKS* January 1 to Oct., 1927, Oct. 31,1927, Oct., 1927, compared compared with compared t ■■ with ■■s same period with Oct., 1926 Sept., 1927 in 1926 Oct.,1926 Departm ent Stores. D ry G o o d s ...............— Furniture ................. — M e n ’s Apparel . . . M e n ’ s and W o m e n ’ s Apparel ................. W o m e n ’ s Ap parel.. A ll R eporting Stores ....................— 0.7 0.4 5.4 3.0 ( 44) 6.8 ( 7) 6.5 ( 56) 16.3 ( 5) 13.9 ( 43) 2.6 (3 7 ) 1.4 ( 7) 10.0 ( 4) — 0.4 ( 56) — 1.3 (31) 1.9 ( 5) ... 1.5 (36) ( 4) (27) ( 3) 7.7 ( 11) 18.7 ( 10) 0.6 ( 11) 12.6 ( 11) 0.7 (10) 1.7 (11) 4.2 ( 3) 1.8 (10) 0.1 (134) 2.2 (94) 1.5 (8 3 ) 8.7 (132) ^Percentage increase or decrease (— ) . indicate number of stores reporting. (O N o vem b er, 1927 M O N T H L Y R EVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS î6 Figures in parentheses DEPARTMENT STORE SALES—Index Number, ( 1923-1925 daily average= 100) OakLos Angeles land (5)t (4)t Without Seasonal Adjustment O ct., 1 9 2 7 .. . Sept., 1 9 2 7 .. . A u g ., 1 9 2 7 .. . O ct., 1 9 2 6 .. . 113 124 118 115 134 108 107 134 San Fran- Salt Lake Seattle Spo kane (5)f (5)t (5)t (3)t 118 109 103 113 118 103 82 116 111 117 94 109 126 112 90 133 117 116 107 116 117 105 105 105 110 103 103 99 103 91 104 113 120 112 112 Dis trict (28) t With Seasonal Adjustment O ct., 1 9 2 7 .. . Sept., 1 9 2 7 .. . A u g ., 1 9 2 7 .. . O ct., 1 9 2 6 .. . 115 139 119 116 113 115 108 115 111 113 102 106 103 )f stores. One store included in district figures not included in cities shown above. Sales at wholesale showed less than the usual seasonal decline during October, and this bank’s seasonally adjusted index of sales of 151 INDEX NUMBER 1 30 120 no A 1W r v 100 V 4 90 80 — DEPARTMENT STORE SALES 70 60 SALES AT WHOLESALE ----------- 1------- */\A VVS----------------------- :----------- « 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 TRADE A C T IV IT Y -T W E L F T H DISTRICT Seasonally adjusted index numbers of sales of 28 department stores and about 170 wholesale firms, (1923-1925 average = 100). Latest figures, October, department stores, 113; wholesale firms, 96. firms in eleven lines of trade advanced from 95 in September (1923-1925 monthly a v era ge= 100) to 96 in October. A year ago the index stood at 98. WHOLESALE TRADE—Twelfth District Index Numbers of Sales* - 1927 No. of 1926 Sept. Aug. Oct. Firms Oct. Agricultural Implem ents Autom obile Supplies . . . Autom obile Tires ............ D rugs ...................................... D ry G o o d s ............................ Electrical Supplies . . . . . Furniture ....................................... Groceries ............................. H ardw are ........................... Shoes .................................... .. Paper and Stationery . . , A ll Lines ............................. . A ll Lines, A d ju sted t . 13 13 13 6 18 9 15 17 20 7 20 151 151 *1923-1925 m onthly a v e ra g e = 1 0 0 . 127 100 148 118 119 122 112 95 101 150 122 110 95 116 103 134 129 96 131 117 90 97 129 104 104 96 173 97 168 101 114 100 101 92 96 144 105 105 99 106 101 126 137 98 149 111 95 102 134 115 108 98 tF o r seasonal variation. Prices During the past month, the general level of wholesale prices increased slightly, according to the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics’ revised index of 550 commodities which moved (D) Bank Debits* — October, 1927 October, 1926 Berkeley ............ Boise ................... F r e s n o ................ L o n g Beach . . L o s Angeles . . Oakland ............ Ogden ................ Pasadena .......... Phoenix ............ Portland ............ Reno ................... Sacramento . . . Salt Lake City San D iego . . . . San Francisco San Jose .......... Seattle ................. Spokane ............ Stockton .......... Tacom a .............. Y akima ............ $ 24,023 17,181 51,237 43,404 928,896 225,606 22,700 37,697 27,957 184,005 9,742 41,318 76,554 61,280 1,429,842 30,697 236,585 59,160 30,261 44,739 17,302 $3,600,186 *000 omitted. ORevised figures. $ 19,272 15,188 57,832 47,007 884,380 174,914 23,286 36,668 26,819 198,102 10,355 33,532 79,245 61,668 1,052,831 32,792 223,207 60,062 26,846 46,272 16,932 $3,127,210 Sept.,19270 $ 21,242 14,751 49,876 43,383 859,094 214,163 21,840 33,813 23,837 181,023 10,567 46,247 68,707 57,415 1,283,350 27,264 240,852 59,425 29,233 45,835 14,460 $3,346,377 N o vem b er, 1927 upward from 96.5 (1926 prices=100) in Sep tember to 97.0 in October. For October, 1926, the index stood at 99.4. The advance of the composite index was caused almost entirely by increases in food prices, the index for that group of commodities advancing from 96.5 in September to 100.0 in October. Prices for farm products were slightly lower than in Septem ber, a result chiefly of declines in prices for cotton and corn. Average prices of cattle, hogs, lambs, and sheep were higher during O ctober than dur ing September. Quotations for cattle declined during the first half of October, but during the last two weeks of that month prices for native beef at Chicago rose rapidly, the average for the week ending O ctober 29th— $14.00 per 100 pounds— being the highest weekly average since O ctober, 1920. The movement of hog prices during O ctober was the reverse of the cattle price movement. An advance in prices dur ing the first weeks of the month was followed by a sharp drop in its closing weeks. Prices for lambs were steady at slightly higher levels than in October. Sheep prices, which had ad vanced during the last week of September, were generally maintained during October, although a slight decline was recorded during the last two weeks of that month. Average prices of cattle and lambs were higher and of hogs and sheep lower during October, 1927, than during October, 1926. LIVESTOCK PRICES AT CHICAGO Percentage changes* from r--------Cents per pound---------\ Oct., Sept., Oct., One Month OneYear 1927 1927 1926 Ago Ago Cattle ............................. H o g s ............................... L am bs ........................... Sheep ............................. 13.45 10.66 13.81 5.71 12.29 10.20 13.50 5.66 10.29 12.62 13.47 6.13 9.4 4.5 2.3 0.9 30.7 — 15.5 2.5 — 6.9 * ( — ) decrease. Toward the close of O ctober wheat prices declined to the lowest levels of the current year but recovered slightly during the first ten days of November. An advance of nearly two cents per bushel in quotations at Chicago occurred on Novem ber 12th, and, since then, prices have held fairly steady. On Novem ber 19th, D e cember contract wheat at Chicago ranged from (i.E) 87 FEDERAL RESERVE AG EN T AT SAN FRANCISCO $1 .26^2 to $1.27% cents per bushel, as com pared with ranges from $1.25% to $1.27)4 a month earlier, and $1.32% to $1.35)4 on N o vember 19, 1926. These daily range quotations indicate quite accurately the general compara tive levels of prices in the respective periods mentioned. The cotton market has recorded compara tively small price fluctuations since October 20th. The price of spot middling uplands cot ton at New Orleans advanced from 19.68 cents per pound on O ctober 24th to 20.68 cents per pound on October 25th, and generally held above that figure until November 9th, when the Department of Agriculture released its esti mate of 12,842,000 bales for the 1927-1928 crop. This was an increase of 164,000 bales over that department’s estimate as of October 1st. Q uo tations declined nearly 1.5 cents a pound on November 9th and 10th, and since then prices have held within relatively narrow limits. On N ovember 19th, spot middling uplands at New Orleans sold for 19.58 cents per pound. W ool prices advanced steadily during O c tober and remained stable during early N ovem ber. The average of 98 quotations at Boston for the week ending November 18, 1927, was 67.78 cents per pound. For the weeks ending October 14, 1927, and November 19, 1926, these quotations averaged 67.04 and 67.40 cents per pound, respectively. As a whole, prices for California dried fruits have not shown much change during recent weeks. Exceptions to this statement are the lowering of raisin prices and the improvement in prices for certain grades of figs. Opening prices on the 1927 crop of California walnuts were well below those of 1926, a representa tive grade selling for 19 cents per pound this year as compared with 25 cents per pound a year ago. Citrus fruit growers have received high prices for their 1927 crop. During October, there was a decline in prices for oranges, but shippers averaged $5.34 per box, f. o. b. Cali fornia shipping points, for the month as a whole. The average price in October, 1926, was $4.88 per box. Prices for lemons were high dur- CommodityPrices— Com m odity W h o le s a le P r ic e s ( U . S. B u re a u o f L a b o r S ta tis tic s — 1926 p r i c e s = 1 0 0 ) . P u r c h a s in g P o w e r o f F a rm P r o d u c t s ( U . S . D e p t , o f A g r i c u l t u r e ) * ____ W h e a t ................................C h ic a g o c o n t r a c t p r ic e f o r D e c e m b e r w h e a t ................. W o o l ..................................A v e r a g e o f 98 q u o t a t io n s at B o s t o n ................................. A p p le s ............................... W in e s a p s , E x tr a F a n c y , f. o . b . P a c ific N o rth w e s t O r a n g e s ............................. V a le n c ia s , F a n c y , w h o le s a le at San F r a n c i s c o . . . . P r u n e s ............................... S iz e 4 0 /5 0 in 2 5 -lb . b o x e s , f. o . b . C a lifo r n ia ............. R a is in s ............................... See d le ss, b u lk , in 2 5 -lb . b o x e s , f. o . b . C a lifo rn ia . . C a n n ed P e a c h e s ............ C h o ic e C lin g , s lic e d , 2J^s, f. o . b . C a lifo r n ia ............. B u t t e r ................................92 s c o r e at S a n F r a n c i s c o ....................................................... C o p p e r ................................E le c t r o ly t ic , m o n th ly a v e r a g e at N e w Y o r k ............... L e a d .................................... M o n t h ly a v e r a g e at N e w Y o r k ............................................ S ilv e r .................................. M o n th ly a v e ra g e at N e w Y o r k ............................................ L u m b e r ( S o f t w o o d ) . .W e e k ly I n d e x , U n ite d S t a t e s f ........................................... Unit bu. lb. box box lb. lb. doz. lb. lb. lb. oz. Nov. 4,1927 97.0 91.8 $ 1 . 2 3 ^ - 1 .2 5 ^ 67.780 $2.25 7.7 5 -8 .5 0 .06-.06y2 .053^ 1.75-1.8 5 .49 12.9580 6.2500 56.0350 31.70 One Month Ago 96.5 92.4 $ 1 . 3 0 ^ - 1 .3 1 ^ 66.680 N o t quoted $7.50-8.25 .06Y4-.06V2 1.75-1.85 .48 12.9400 6.2970 55.4450 29.91 One Year Ago 99.4 81.2 $ 1 . 3 9 ^ - 1 .4 1 ^ 67.590 $ 1 .2 5 -1 .4 0 6 .00-6.2 5 .06H--07H .0 2.00-2.10 .46 13.8620 8.4020 54.5050 30.18$ *Ratio of farm prices (August, 1909-July, 1914 prices=100) to wholesale prices of non-agricultural commodities (1910-1914 p rices= 100). fA s published by “ The Lumber Manufacturer and Dealer.” $Revised. 88 N o v e m b e r, 1927 M O N T H L Y R EVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS ing October, reaching a peak about the middle of the month. The average price per box, f. o. b. California shipping points, was $7.21 as com pared with $2.95 in October, 1926. Of the non-ferrous metals, copper and silver advanced in price during October as compared with September; lead prices were practically unchanged; and those for zinc declined. Lumber prices advanced slightly during the month. The softwood lumber index of The Lumber Manufacturer and Dealer advanced to 31.70 for October as compared with 29.91 in September and 30.18 in October, 1926. Banking and Credit The autumn peak in primary demand for credit was reached during early October. For the first time since 1921, and contrary to the experience of most previous years, the high point of autumn borrowing was below that of the previous spring, a reflection of recent dull ness in several lines of industry and trade. On October 12, 1927, total loans and discounts of reporting member banks amounted to 1,291 MILLIONS OF DOLLARS November 16, 1927, these loans were 16 million dollars (1.7 per cent) smaller than at mid-Octo ber, and 44 million dollars (4.5 per cent) below the level of a year ago. During the past two months, fluctuations in time and demand de posits at reporting member banks have counter-balanced each other. During the four weeks ended October 12th, time deposits increased 26 million dollars while net demand deposits de creased by an equal amount. During the fiveweek period ended November 16, 1927, a con trary fluctuation occurred, demand deposits in creasing 22 million dollars while time deposits decreased 19 million dollars. A t the Reserve Bank, borrowings of report ing member banks were less than half as large on November 16th as at mid-October, 1927, and were only slightly more than half as large as a year ago. REPORTING MEMBER BANKS*— Twelfth District (In millions of dollars, percentage changes in parentheses) Condition r~------ Changes from ■ Nov. 16, One Month One Year 1927 Ago Ago ( + = increase. — = decrease. ) T otal L o a n s ................................. 1,271 Commercial Loans ................. 930 Loans on Securities ............... 341 Investm ents ................................ 5 73 Total Loans and Investm ents 1,844 N et Dem and D e p o s i t s .......... 816 T im e D eposits ........................... 914 Borrow ings from Federal Reserve Bank ...................... 25 —11 ( 0.8) — 16 + 6 +27 — 16 -2 2 — 19 ( ( ( ( ( ( 1.7) 1.7) 4.9) 0.9) 2.7) 2.1) — 11 (30.4) — 24 ( 1.9) — 44 ( 4.5) + 20 ( 6.2) + 108 (2 3 .3 ) + 82 ( 4.7) + 24 ( 3.0) + 30 ( 3.4) — 22 (4 6 .8 ) *T otal resources of reporting banks are approximately 50 per cent of total resources of all banks and 70 per cent of total resources of all m em ber banks in the Tw elfth Federal R e serve District. Reporting banks embrace m em ber banks in San Francisco, L o s An geles, Oakland, Portland, Seattle, Tacom a, Spokane, Salt Lake City, and O gden. MEMBER BANK CREDIT—TWELFTH DISTRICT Figures for about 65 member banks in leading cities, as of last Wednesday of each month. Latest figures, November 16th. million dollars compared with 1,317 million dollars on March 9, 1927. During the autumn of 1926, demands for credit accommodation did not culminate in a seasonal peak but continued to expand, practically unchecked from week to week, until the close of the Christmas season when they stood at 1,314 million dollars as com pared with 1,295 million dollars in mid-Novem ber, 1926, and 1,222 million dollars on Octo ber 6, 1926. Commercial loans outstanding at member banks of the district have been quite consis tently smaller in volume than in the spring months and in only one week, that of October 12th, have they been above the level of mid summer. Standing at 930 million dollars on Seasonal demands upon member banks have not been so heavy this year and they have been able to care for the financing of crop move ments and of general trade with less than the usual amount of borrowing from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Member banks’ demands for accommodation at the Fed eral Reserve Bank expanded seasonally to a 1927 peak of 59 million dollars during early Oc tober, since which time they have declined sharply. W ith the exception of the week ended September 14, 1927, bills discounted at the Re serve Bank on November 16th were at the lowest point since February, 1926, and were at the lowest point for this season of the year since 1924, a year characterized by abundant supplies of credit and recession in business and industrial activity. FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO (In millions of dollars, percentage changes in parentheses) Condition f— Changes from- ■ N Nov. 16, One Month One Year 1927 Ago Ago ( + = increase. — “= decrease.) Total Bills and S e c u r it ie s ... Bills D is c o u n t e d ........................ U nited States Securities . . . . Bills B ought ................................ Total Reserves ........................... T otal D e p o s i t s ............................. Federal Reserve N ote Circulation ............................... 90 29 56 5 294 194 — 5 — 12 +10 — 3 +14 + 8 171 — ( 5.4) (2 9 .7 ) (2 1 .8 ) (3 7 .0 ) ( 5.0) ( 4 .0 ) 0 ( 0.0 ) — 28 — 21 +17 — 24 +30 +14 (2 4 .1 ) (4 2 .2 ) (4 3 .6 ) (83 .7 ) (11.4) ( 7 .6 ) — 17 ( 9.2)
@FedFRASER