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M O N T H L Y R E V I E W OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS ISAAC B. NEWTON, Chairman of the Board and Federal Reserve Agent Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco No. 11 San Francisco, California, November 20,1928 Vol. XII SU M M ARY OF N A T IO N A L CONDITIONS Prepared by the Federal Reserve Board Industry continued active in October and the distribution of commodities was in large volume. Wholesale commodity prices declined sharply, owing chiefly to decreases in the prices of farm products. Member bank credit in use increased in October and November, while re serve bank credit outstanding showed little change. Conditions in the money market were somewhat easier. Production. Industrial production continued in October at the high level of September and considerably above the level of a year ago. Out put of minerals increased over September, while the production of manufacturers de clined slightly. Factory employment and pay rolls increased to the highest level since early in 1927. The production of pig iron was particu larly large in October and the first half of No vember, and output of steel continued in record volume. Automobile production declined con siderably in October after exceptional activity in September and showed further reduction in November. As is usual at this season, activity increased in October in meat packing and in the textile industries with the exception of silk. Copper mining and smelting continue at a high level, and the output of coal and petroleum increased by more than the usual seasonal amount, while the production of zinc declined. There was also a decline in the output of lumber and building materials. Building contracts awarded continued to increase in October and were larger than in that month of any previous year, but declined sharply during the first two weeks of November. The increase in October was due principally to large contracts for engi neering and industrial projects. The November cotton crop estimate of the Department of Agriculture was slightly larger than the October estimate and indicated a yield of 14,133,000 bales, 1,178,000 more than the production of 1927. Ginnings of the current crop prior to November 14 totaled 11,320,302 bales, compared with 10,894,912 in the similar period of a year ago. Indicated yields of wheat, corn, oats, potatoes, and tobacco were larger than the 1927 crops, while estimates of hay, rye, and flaxseed were smaller. Trade. Department store sales in October were in about the same volume as in the same period of the preceding year, but showed some what less than the usual seasonal increase from the high level of September. Inventories of these stores increased during the month, but continued smaller than a year ago. The volume of distribution at wholesale was larger than in September and showed a substantial gain over October, 1927. Freight carloadings continued larger in October and November than a year ago, reflecting chiefly large loadings of miscel laneous freight. PER C E N T PER C E N T ... ) — ho! MANUFACT U R E S > 'X ) a y -~ r-yJ V /■ V '" M IN E R * L S — ■ — V" ■--------- P R O D U C T IO N O F M A N U F A C T U R E S A N D M I N E R A L S Index numbers of production of manufactures and minerals, ad justed for seasonal variations (1923-1925 average*=100). Latest figures, October, manufactures, 114; minerals, 114. 100 90\Af1924 1925 1926 1927 1923 W H O L E S A L E P R IC E S Index of United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (1926 prices **100, base adopted by Bureau). Latest figure, October, 97.8. 82 M O N T H L Y REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS Prices. Wholesale commodity prices declined in October after a continuous increase for three months, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics' index for October, at 97.8 per cent of the 1926 average, was over 2 per cent below that for September. This decline reflected principally large decreases in prices of farm and food products and hides and leather. Prices of in dustrial commodities increased slightly, with leading cities, but at the end of this period the total was still below the large volume outstand ing at the middle of the year. Loans chiefly for commercial purposes remained at a high level during the period and loans on securities showed further growth, reflecting a marked in crease in the volume of loans to brokers and dealers in securities. Investments showed a further decline. B IL L IO N S O F 1927 N ov em b er, 1928 DOLLARS 1928" WV M E M B E R B A N K C R E D IT R E SE R V E B A N K C R E D IT M onthly averages of weekly figures for banks in 101 leading cities. Latest figures are averages for the first three weeks in November. Monthly averages of daily figures for 12 Federal Reserve Banks. Latest figures are averages for first 23 days in November. small gains recorded in metals, building ma terials, and chemicals and drugs. The principal increases occurred in prices of iron and steel, copper, and raw silk. During the first three weeks of November prices of cotton, pig iron, copper, and petroleum increased, and prices of most farm and food products, except corn, pork, and sugar, recovered somewhat after the Oc tober decline. Bank Credit. Between October 24 and No vember 21, there was a considerable increase in loans and investments of member banks in During the four weeks ending November 21 there was little change in the volume of reserve bank credit in use. Reserve bank holdings of acceptances again increased and discounts for member banks declined. During the last week of October and the first three weeks of No vember, conditions in the money market were somewhat easier; the rate on four to six months commercial paper declined from a level of per cent to a range from 5% to S y 2 per cent, and rates on call and time loans in the open market also declined slightly. T W E L F T H FED ER AL RESERVE DISTRICT CONDITIONS A month ago this Review called attention to the generally satisfactory agricultural outlook, the large volume of trade being transacted, well sustained industrial activity, and the ample credit supply, as salient features of the business situation in the Twelfth Federal Reserve Dis trict. There has been no fundamental change in the situation since that time, agriculture being, on the whole, in satisfactory condition; retail and wholesale trade having been active during October and early November; industrial opera tions having continued at high levels; and the supply of credit having been ample to care for the seasonal needs of business. Total agricultural returns in the District have thus far approximated those of a year ago, but their distribution by regions is somewhat changed. Livestock returns have undoubtedly been well above those of 1927, and evidence of improved purchasing power in areas where that industry is especially important is afforded by increased trading activity. Some of the areas producing specialized crops have had a satis factory season, but returns to producers in cer tain other sections of the District have been disappointing. Increases in value of sales during October, 1928, as compared with October, 1927, were reported by a large majority of the principal retail and wholesale establishments operating throughout this District. Expansion of build ing activity during October has helped further to improve the industrial situation, and as a consequence of this improvement little surplus of labor was reported. Seasonal expansion of trade and industry was carried on with an adequate supply of credit. Reporting city member banks were able to re duce their borrowings at this Bank, even though their loans reached record levels during the first half of November. Additional loans were made at rates which have prevailed for several months, and which are slightly higher than a year ago. N o v e m b e r, 1928 FEDERAL RESERVE AG EN T AT SAN FRANCISCO Agriculture Rainfall during September and October has been below normal in the agricultural areas of the Twelfth District. As was reported last month, dry weather has retarded fall sowing of grain and growth of forage on winter livestock ranges, but has favored late harvesting opera tions. Production of the principal crops grown in the District, as estimated by the United States Department of Agriculture on Novem ber 1, approximates previous forecasts with the exception of certain field crops whose harvest yields have been somewhat greater than was anticipated earlier in the crop season. Marketing of the Pacific Northwest’s 1928 wheat crop, as indicated by the export move ment of wheat from Puget Sound and Colum bia River ports and carlot receipts of grain at seaboard grain terminals in Oregon and Wash ington, has progressed slowly. During the period July 1, 1928, to October 31,1928, exports totaled 13,224,000 bushels compared with an export movement of 27,314,000 bushels during the corresponding period in 1927. At seaboard grain terminals carlot receipts of wheat were 27 per cent less for the season to November 1, 1928, than for the same period last year. Yields of some of the District’s field crops have been somewhat greater than was antici pated six weeks ago, and on November 1, pro duction estimates for cotton in Arizona and California and rice in California were revised upwards by approximately 2 and 20 per cent, respectively. Similarly, estimates of sugar beet production in California, Idaho, and Utah and of bean production in California and Idaho were increased 16 and 6 per cent, respectively. Production of Navel oranges in California for the 1928-1929 season is estimated at 15,700,000 boxes. The 1927-1928 crop amounted to 11,650,000 boxes. Shipments of oranges from Cali fornia totaled 2,129 carloads during October, the last month of the 1927-1928 crop marketing season. During October, 1927, it was estimated that 2,646 carloads of oranges were shipped. Total shipments of oranges, including Navels and Valencias, for the 1927-1928 season amounted to 46,922 carloads compared with 57,163 carloads shipped during the 1926-1927 season. Orange prices (f.o.b. shipping point— California) declined slightly during October but remained at levels above those of a year ago. Harvesting of late maturing varieties of grapes and apples grown in this District was practically completed early in November. By November 14, shipments of the 1928 crop grapes from California had totaled 68,204 car loads compared with a total movement of 73,234 carloads during the 1927 season to Novem ber 14. The California Crop Reporting Service, on November 1, estimated that production of grapes in California during 1928 would total 83 2,327,000 tons. The 1927 crop was estimated to be 2,406,000 tons, of which 142,000 tons were not harvested. Marketing of the Pacific Northwestern apple crop is progressing satisfactorily. Between July 1 and November 1, 1928, domestic ship ments of apples from Oregon, Idaho, and Washington totaled 26,866 carloads, compared with shipments totaling 17,694 carloads during the 1927-1928 apple marketing season to No vember 1, 1927. Exports of boxed apples from the United States have been approximately 134 per cent larger in volume this year than last. Returns to growers for the principal varieties of apples marketed during the current season in the Pacific Northwest have ranged from 62 cents to $1.05 per box below those of a year ago. Although the condition of the District’s live stock ranges usually improves during October, scant rainfall during the present season resulted in a decline in range conditions during that month. Livestock generally have remained in good condition despite deterioration of ranges, however, and reports indicate that ample stocks of hay are available for supplemental feeding purposes, should such feeding be necessary. The fall movement of cattle to the District’s markets and feedlots, as indicated by livestock receipts at eight principal markets during Oc tober, was slightly heavier than a year ago. Similarly, the movement of sheep to Twelfth District markets has been heavier than it was last year. Industry Industry was active throughout the Twelfth Federal Reserve District during October and proceeded at approximately the levels of a year ago. Employment was well maintained for this season of the year, especially in the Pacific Southwest where increased mining activity and heavy agricultural demands quite generally absorbed the available labor supply. This Bank’s seasonally adjusted index of freight carloadings of industrial commodities stood at 109 (preliminary estimate) (1923-1925 daily average=100) in October, 1928; 109 in September, 1928; and 111 in October, 1927. (A) Industry— Indexes of daily average production, adjusted for seasonal variation. (1923-1925 daily averaffc = 100) - j -,u-- 1 9 2 8 - ------------ \ Sept. Oct. Aug. M anufactures: . 109 108 98 84 89 Slaughter of L i v e s t o c k ................. 93* , 105* 104 103 159 Refined Mineral O i l s f .................... 161 117 128 73 75 W o o l Consumption ........................ M inerals: . 95 96 95 Petroleum (California) t .............. Copper (U nited States) $ ............ . 128 121 115 Lead (U nited S t a t e s ) t ................. . 109 116 108 Silver (U n ited States) % ............... . 81 79 82 General : 109* 109 Carloadings§ ...................................... 118 1927 Oct. 104 92 109 149 113 100 95 102 105 91 111 *Preliminary. f N o t adjusted for seasonal variation. JPrepared by Federal Reserve Board. § Other than Merchandise and M is cellaneous. 84 A slight seasonal reduction in employment was reported during October. The decline was noted particularly in the Pacific Northwest, where the agricultural, canning and packing, and fishing industries have commenced to re lease men not needed during the winter season. Activity in the construction industry, how ever, helped to absorb a part of the surplus. In southern California and Arizona, the labor needs arising from a large cotton crop, an in creased mineral output, and a fairly active con struction program have tested the adequacy of the available supply of workers. Production and shipments of lumber were maintained at seasonal levels during October and orders received were in large volume. This Bank’s seasonally adjusted index of lumber production stood at 105 (1923-1925 daily average=100) in October, 1928, as compared with 104 in September, 1928, and 109 in October, 1927. The number and value of building permits awarded in principal cities of the District (figures of S. W . Straus and Company) in creased during October, reversing, at least tem porarily, the downward trend of the past 11 months. The total value of building permits issued between January 1 and October 31,1928, was about 10 per cent lower than for the same period of 1927; at the end of September, 1928, a similar comparison showed a decline of 11 per cent. The value of engineering and heavy con struction contracts awarded during October in the far-western district (figures published by the Engineering News Record) increased mod erately from the low levels of September. The January 1-October 31, 1928, total for the farwestern district, however, was 14 per cent be low that for January 1-October 31, 1927. Daily average output of petroleum declined slightly during October, 1928, as compared with September, 1928, and was approximately the same as in October, 1927. Sharp reductions in output during the first two weeks were offset by increases during the last half of the month. This Bank’s index of the daily average pro duction of petroleum stood at 95 (1923-1925 daily average=100) in October, 1928; 96 in September, 1928; and 95 in October, 1927. Stocks of light crude oil were relatively small at the end of October, but stocks of heavy crude were taxing storage capacities. As a result, the price of heavy crude was somewhat lower dur ing October than earlier in the year. Production of copper increased again during October and producers were reported to be planning a continuance of heavy operating schedules during the immediate future. Stocks of refined copper on hand at the month-end were extremely low. Zinc and silver produc tion remained at relatively low levels. Flour mills of the District continued active during October. Demand for flour in both local and eastern markets was fairly heavy, but orders from foreign countries were light. Trade A large volume of trade was transacted in the Twelfth Federal Reserve District during Oc tober, 1928, and activity both at wholesale and at retail was substantially greater than during October, 1927. The centers showing the largest increases in trade activity as compared with a year ago were Los Angeles, Salt Lake City, Seattle, and Spokane. When reduced to a daily average basis, retail trade declined from September to October, while wholesale trade increased during the same period, both move ments being contrary to the usual seasonal ex pectation. INDEX (B) Employment— ( ----------California--------- <----------------- Oregon— N o. of N o. r ~ Employees —> N o. O ct., of Oct., of 1927 Firms Firms 1928 Industries 153 A ll Industries........... 722 158,093 151,725 (4.2) Stone, Clay and Glass P rod u cts. 43 Lum ber and W o o d M anufactures . . 109 6,339 (0.0) 6,339 25,227 ( — 5.3) 26,645 T e x t i l e s .................. 18 2,791 C lothing, M illinery and Laundering. 2,467 ( - -1 1 .6 ) 65 8,133 F ood s, B everages and T o b a cco . . 8,281 (1.8) 160 34,085 W ater, L igh t and P o w e r ................. 34,952 (2.5) 5 7,617 (- 1 .5 ) O ther Industries-?, 309 72,381 7,733 ——> N o. of <— Employees Oct., O ct., 1927 1928 28,082 31,125 (10.8, 170 ( — 35.8) 265 16,788 (6.2) 15,805 1,960 (— 3.9) 2,040 489 (6.8) 458 43 6,319 (63.6) 3,862 31 5,399 (— 4.5) 5,652 4 55 11 9* 13 829 ( — 6.0) *L aunderin g only, fln clu d e s the follow in g in d u stries: metals, m achinery and co n v e y a n ce s ; leather and rubber g o o d s ; chem icals, oils and p a in ts ; printing and paper goods. Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from O c to ber, 1927. 110 100 90 A A 120 ¡X — RETAIi SA LE virA iA A v ; v T* W~l924 - Â 'P C V v \J -----V4—V CAR L O A D IN C A A VW H O L E S A L E SA LES A K r ^ J \ A hA iA/ ;s ¡925 Ì926 Ï927 1928 D IS T R IB U T IO N A N D T R A D E - T W E L F T H D IS T R I C T Indexes adjusted for seasonal variation. 1923-1925 average=100. Daily average figures of department store sales and railway carloadings of merchandise freight. Monthly figures of sales at wholesale. 65,117 882 NUM BERS 130 80 (11.1) M iscellaneous . . . . N o v e m b e r, 1928 M O N T H L Y REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS Total value of sales at retail of 150 depart ment, apparel, and furniture stores was 6.3 per cent larger in October, 1928, than in October, 1927. The seasonally adjusted index of sales of 28 department stores stood at 120 (1923-1925 daily average=100) in October, 1928, as com N o v e m b e r, 1928 pared with 123 in September, 1928, and 115 in October, 1927. Stock on hand of 27 reporting department stores was approximately the same during October this year as during October a year ago. R E T A I L T R A D E — Twelfth District ,---------N E T SA L E S *----------^ Jan. 1 to O ct., 1928, Oct.31,1928, compared compared with with Jan. 1 to Oct., 1927 Oct. 31,1927 S t o r e s f.. 7.6 (68) 2.9 (61) ST O C K * O ct.,1928, compared with Oct., 1927 — 1.8 (51) Departm ent A pparel Stores ......... 3.8 (32) 0.9 (25) — 3.4 (19) Furniture Stores . . . . 0.4 (5 0) — 2.2 (4 1) — 7.3 (31) A ll S tores .................... 6.3 (150) 2.1 (127) — 2.7 (101) *Percentage increase or decrease (— ) . Figures in parentheses in dicate number of stores reporting, fln clu d e s dry goods stores. The usual autumn increase in the District’s wholesale trade was not experienced until Oc tober this year, whereas the initial expansion is usually felt in September. Largely as a result of this late seasonal movement, nine of the eleven lines of wholesale trade canvassed by this Bank showed increased sales during Oc tober, 1928, as compared with September, 1928, and October, 1927. The seasonally adjusted index of value of sales at wholesale advanced to 107 (1923-1925 monthly average=100) in October as compared with 99 in September and 100 in October a year ago. Stock on hand of 99 wholesalers was 3 per cent smaller in Oc tober, 1928, than in October, 1927. Sales of new automobiles registered a more than seasonal increase during October, 1928, and surpassed the high levels of the last two months, reaching a point far in excess of the small sales of October, 1927. Total carloadings decreased throughout the District during October, due chiefly to lighter loadings of merchandise and miscellaneous freight. Prices The general level of commodity prices has declined slightly but steadily for several weeks. The downward tendency, which was accentu ated during late October, apparently was checked, however, during the first week or ten days of November. Lower prices for agricul tural commodities, foods and food products, (C ) Distribution and Trade— ,--------------- 1928-------------- \ 1927 Oct. Sept. Aug. Oct. Index Numbers*---------- -\ t ---------- Carloadings, T ota lt ...................... Carloadings, M erchandise and M iscellaneou s! ........................... Sales at W holesale* ...................... Sales at R e ta il!................................. S tocks, Retail§ ................................. Sales of N ew Automobiles|| Passenger C a r s ............................ C om m ercial V ehicles ............... 1120 114 122 114 1150 107 120 110 118 99 123 109 124 103 120 107 116 100 115 110 112 126 110 119 115 121 75 90 ------------- Actual Figures------------- ' S tock Turnover, R etailfl............... C ollections, R e ta il# R egular ......................................... Installm ent ................................... .26 55.7 19.4 .25 45.3 15.8 .27 45.1 17.1 .24 51.0 14.1 * A djusted for seasonal variation, 1923*1925 a vera g e= 1 0 0 . !D a ily average. ^M onthly totals of eleven lines com bined. §At end o f month. ||For sou rce of figures, see June, 1928 Review. ^Proportion of average stocks sold during m onth. # P e r cent of collections during m onth to amount outstanding at first of m onth. OPreliminary. 85 FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT SAN FRANCISCO and for hides and leather products, have been mainly responsible for declines in various com posite indexes. The force of the downward movement was moderated by the action of prices of fuels and chemicals, and by price ad vances recorded in the metals group. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ index of wholesale prices of 550 commodities declined during Oc tober to 98 (1926 monthly average=100) as compared with 100 for September, but remained higher than in October a year ago, when the index stood at 97. Recent declines in prices for foods and cer tain farm products have had an unfavorable effect upon anticipated agricultural purchasing power in the Twelfth District, and actual ag gregate returns in some cases are not equalling predictions made earlier in the season. Quota tions for wheat have for some time been substan tially below prices of a year ago, and, as this year’s crop was smaller than the 1927 crop, it is apparent that income returns to wheat grow ers in this region will be reduced. The potato situation in this District is similar to that of wheat, prices being substantially lower and pro duction being somewhat smaller than a year ago. Prices for peaches were lower this year than last, and, even with the large crop, aggre gate returns probably fell below those of 1927. Fresh grape and apple prices have been rela tively low during the current season and there has been little or no measurable improvement in recent weeks. Citrus fruits have sold at high levels this year, and prices are being well main tained. On the whole, quotations for dried fruits have changed little during the past month, although slight advances have been reported in certain lines, the most important of which is (D) Bank Debits* — O ct., 1928 Oct., 1927 B a k e rsfie ld ......... $ 15,909 $ 14,399 Bellingham . . . . 9,983 9,594 B e r k e le y ............. 22,333 24,023 19,601 B o i s e ................... 17,181 9,106 7,747 Eugene ............... 13,001 Everett ............... 14,500 Fresno ............... 45,274 51,237 L o n g Beach . . . 61,175 43,404 L o s Angeles . . . 1,160,189 928,896 Oakland ............. 257,782 225,606 Ogden ................. 24,612 22,700 Pasadena ........... 39,068 37,697 Phoenix ............. 38,900 27,957 Portland ............. 2 0 7 ,5 1 1 ! 184,005 Reno .................. 11,311 9,742 1,309 Ritzville ............. 1,578 55,004 Sacramento . . . . 41,318 Salt Lake C ity. . 87,405 76,554 4,371 San B ernardino. 10,102 61,273 San D iego ......... 61,280 San Francisco . . 1,464,231 1,429,842 San Jose ........... 34,249 30,697 Santa B a rb a ra .. 15,601 14,040 Seattle ............... 277,784 236,585 62,390 59,160 Spokane ............. 29,528 S t o c k t o n ............. 30,261 50,332 T acom a ............. 44,739 19,964 17,302 Yakim a ............. D istrict .........$4,100,695! $3,670,647 t----- First Ten M onths— $ 1928 140,595 100,670 218,246 153,643 75,821 136,291 351,308 550,612 10,619,691 2,461,251 186,770 402,736 343,220 1,790,173$ 99,493 10,403 500,551 748,593 98,446 623,771 15,228,367 285,555 140,910 2,466,042 567,327 292,501 460,461 138,885 $ 1927 130,540 97,501 214,700 136,525 74,762 127,232 394,415 483,165 9,202,907 2,199,0 73 178,457 401,396 267,050 1,685,108 94,209 9,524 378,416 690,586 101,337 612,454 12,228,718 262,799 134,908 2,151,331 552,673 281,180 450,037 126,359 $39,192,332$ $33,667,362 *In thousands. !In clu d e s $17,753,000 at four banks not reporting prior to week ended M ay 2, 1928. ^Includes $103,953,000 at four banks not reporting prior to week ended M ay 2, 1928. N ov em b er, 1928 M O N T H L Y R EVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS Banking and Credit During October and the first half of Novem ber, a supply of credit sufficient for all require ments of expanding industry and trade has been available in the Twelfth District. Loans of reporting city member banks increased to record levels during this period, but their bor rowings at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco were reduced. Interest rates were gen erally unchanged from those of recent months and were slightly higher than a year ago. Commercial loans and loans on securities at reporting city member banks expanded through out October and November, and on November 14 were at the highest level ever reported. The so-called commercial loans were 57 million dol lars (6 per cent) and the loans on securities were 61 million dollars (12 per cent) larger than on November 16, 1927. Demand and time deposits of these banks increased during this period and were larger than a year ago. The increase over last year was not so great, rela tively, as the increase in loans, however, and the ratio of total deposits to total loans stood at 137.2 on November 14, 1928, compared with 140.0 on November 16, 1927, the high point for that year. Investment holdings of these banks were reduced slightly during October and No vember, but exceeded, in amount, the invest ments reported in October and November, 1927. Their borrowings from the Reserve Bank were reduced during October and November, but were slightly more than twice as large as at this time last year. R E P O R T IN G M E M B E R B A N K S — Twelfth District (In millions of dollars) i-------------------- Condition-------------------- > N ov. 14, Oct. 17, O ct.3, Nov.16, 1928 1928 1928 1927 T otal Loans and In v e stm e n ts.. T otal L o a n s ____, .......................... C om m ercial L oans .................... Loans on Securities.................... I n v e s t m e n t s ................................... N et Dem and D e p osits................ T im e D eposits ............................. B orrow in gs from Federal R e serve B ank ............................... 2,044 1,389 987 402 655 882 1,017 61 2,027 1,362 973 384 665 851 1,013 2,009 1,350 970 380 660 833 1,010 1,844 1,271 930 341 573 816 914 71 70 25 Earning assets of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco declined by seven million dol lars during the four weeks ending November 14, but on the latter date were still 35 million dol lars larger than a year ago. Member bank bor rowings from the Reserve Bank were reduced by 10 million dollars during the four-week period, as a result entirely of reduced borrow ings of city member banks. Borrowing by country banks increased slightly. The reduc tion in borrowings of city member banks from the Reserve Bank was accomplished despite (a) the withdrawal of approximately 10 mil lion dollars of government deposits from com mercial banks of the District, (b) the transfer by member banks of approximately 7 y 2 million dollars to other parts of the United States, (c) an increase of member bank reserve balances at the Reserve Bank of 4 million dollars during the four weeks, and (d) a decrease in other credits granted by the Reserve Bank, all factors tending to increase the demand for Reserve Bank credit. In the present instance, however, the effect of these factors was more than offset by the effect of certain other factors, namely (a) an excess of Treasury disbursements over Treasury receipts amounting to approximately 12 million dollars in this District, (b) a reduc tion in demand for currency in the District amounting to approximately 6 million dollars and (c) Reserve Bank purchase in the local market of 2 y 2 million dollars of acceptances. MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 300 1U IAL» KE.5>LKVL5 200 FEDERA L RESERVE NOTE Cl RCULATION -----------------— V— , 100 . ... vV / V ^ \ N raisins. Quotations for canned fruits have remained steady for several months. After approximately a month of unchanged quotations, copper prices were further ad vanced during the latter part of October. These advances have not been accompanied by rises in prices of other non-ferrous metals; in fact, prices for lead have declined slightly since the first of November. \ INVESTMENTS \ 86 >924. 1925 BILLS DISCOUNTE•¡d ' I ... J1 192 7 192Ö 1926 R E S E R V E B A N K C R E D I T — T W E L F T H D IS T R IC T Monthly average of daily figures. Latest figures are averages for first 20 day8 in November. The reduction in cash reserves of the Fed eral Reserve Bank resulting from net outgoing member bank transfers of 7 y 2 million dollars and net Treasury withdrawals of 2 million dol lars of gold coin and currency from the Re serve Bank was more than counterbalanced by an inflow of cash other than Federal reserve notes from within the District (amounting to approximately 4 million dollars) and by Treas ury transfers into the District (amounting to 14 million dollars) to cover its disbursements. As a result of these movements of funds, cash reserves at this Bank were increased by ap proximately 10 million dollars during the fourweek period. F E D E R A L R ESE R VE B A N K O F SA N F R A N C IS C O (In millions of dollars) t----------------- Condition — N o v .14, Oct.17, Oct. 3. Nov.16, 1928 1928 1928 1927 Total Bills and S e c u r it ie s ............. . Bills D is c o u n t e d ............................... Bills B ought ..................................... U nited States S e c u r it ie s ................ 125 66 42 17 T otal D e p o s i t s .................................. . Federal Reserve N otes in Circu. 200 132 76 40 17 251 197 133 76 40 17 253 193 90 29 5 56 294 194 167 169 171 171 E a r n i n g s 87 FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT SAN FRANCISCO N o v e m b e r, 1928 a n d E x p e n s e s o f M e m b e r B a n k s in T w e l f t h District Analysis o f Costs and Earnings o f Non-Branch Operating Banks During 1927 (Statem ent of amounts per $100 of earning assets in even dollars and cents results in some instances in slight discrepancies between component figures and related totals.) Twelfth District* California Idaho Oregon Utah W ash ington 620 213 73 148 128 45 Amount per $100 of Earning Assets Total Earnings ................................................ Interest Earned ............................................. Other Earnings ............................................. Total Expenses ................................................ Salaries and Wages ....................................... Interest and Discount on Borrowed Money---Interest on Deposits....................................... All Other Expenses ....................................... Net Earnings................................................... Net Losses ....................................................... Net Addition to Profits..................................... Dividends Declared .......................................... $6.77 5.90 .87 5.00 1.65 .08 2.03 1.23 1.77 .82 .95 .73 $6.46 5.72 .74 4.77 1.51 .12 2.04 1.11 1.68 .83 .85 .73 $7.52 6.67 .85 5.61 1.90 .15 2.11 1.44 1.91 1.56 .35 .34 $6.65 5.91 .73 4.78 1.70 .04 1.96 1.07 1.86 .83 1.03 .65 $6.88 5.98 .89 5.15 1.54 .08 2.23 1.29 1.72 .91 .81 .71 $7.12 6.01 1.11 5.36 1.84 .04 2.00 1.47 1.76 .47 1.29 .89 Amount per $100 of Earnings Interest Earned............................................. Other Earnings ............................................. Total Expenses ................................................ Salaries and Wages ....................................... Interest and Discount on Borrowed Money...... Interest on Deposits ....................................... All Other Expenses....................................... Net Earnings ................................................... Net Losses ....................................................... Net Addition to Profits..................................... Dividends Declared .......................................... 87.05 12.95 73.79 24.41 1.24 29.93 18.21 26.21 12.19 14.02 10.79 88.51 11.49 73.85 23.29 1.78 31.54 17.24 26.15 13.06 13.09 11.34 88.72 11.28 74.58 25.29 2.03 28.07 19.19 25.42 20.80 4.62 4.46 88.95 11.05 71.94 25.64 .66 29.56 16.09 28.06 12.49 15.57 9.77 86.99 13.01 74.95 22.46 1.18 32.48 18.84 25.05 14.37 11.80 10.27 84.42 15.58 75.27 25.88 .58 28.19 20.62 24.73 6.64 18.09 12.45 $752.76 2.62 1.93 36.32 68.74 4.69 26.57 $804.90 7.21 1.90 46.16 61.33 15.78 22.89 $701.16 5.69 2.34 40.05 38.64 31.70 29.65 $794.07 10.22 1.98 41.00 65.27 7.81 26.92 Nevada Oregon Utah W ashington 42.80 77.51 53.69 69.53 .52 6.61 2.54 9.53 O t h e r O p e r a t i n g R a t i o s (Amount per $100) Earning Assets to Invested Capital........................... $724.82 Profits to Invested Capital....................................... 6.89 Interest on Deposits to Gross Deposits..................... 2.11 Time Deposits to Gross Deposits............................... 38.54 Losses on Loans to Total Losses............................... 58.68 Losses on Securities to Total Losses.......................... 12.10 29.22 Other Losses to Total Losses................................... M i s c e l l a n e o u s C o m $665.63 5.63 2.30 33.96 53.92 12.33 33.75 p a r a t i v e I t e m s E A R N I N G A S S E T S — J U N E 30, 1927 Twelfth District Per Cent of Member Banks to All Banks........................... 72.67 Per Cent of Member Banks in Each State to All Member Banks in the District.......... 100.00 Arizona California 80.77 73.85 1.05 78.02 Idaho 1.73 ^Includes figures for Arizona and Nevada which are not shown separately because of small numbers of banks included. These ratios are based upon data taken from the customary abstracts of reports of condition and of earnings, expenses, and dividends. I t should be borne in mind in using them that the statistics employed represent aggregates for all member banks reporting on the various dates, and such ratios as are shown in this table are therefore ratios of aggregates in which figures for large banks have a statistical influence somewhat disproportionate to their number in comparison with the figures for small banks. Data are only for member banks for which complete condition reports for every call in a particular year were available. W here reports for any bank were not complete during any year all figures for that bank were omitted. NOTE: Some of the figures in the above table are revisions or corrections of figures appearing in a similar table on page 80 of the October, 1928, Review. The present table should be substituted for the one published last month, which may now be destroyed. These figures are still subject to change. Complete and final figures, including those for 1928, will probably be published during 1929. N ov e m b e r, 1928 M O N T H L Y REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS 88 E a r n i n g s a n d E x p e n s e s o f M e m b e r B a n k s in T w e l f t h District Analysis o f Costs and Earnings o f Non-Branch Operating Banks During 1927 (Statem ent o f amounts per $100 of earning assets in even dollars and cents results in som e instances in slight discrepancies betw een com ponent figures and related totals.) (---------------------------------- Number of Banks............... .......... Amount per $100 of Earning Assets Total Earnings ......................... Interest Earned .................... Other Earnings...................... Total Expenses ......................... Salaries and Wages ............... Interest and Discount on Borrowed Money ............... Interest on Deposits .......... All Other Expenses............... Net Earnings ............................. Net Losses ................................ Net Addition to Profits............. Dividends Declared ................... Amount per $100 of Earnings Interest Earned .................... Interest and Discount on Net Earnings ............... Net Losses ................... Net Addition to Profits Dividends Declared O Size of City Number of Inhabitants— 1920 C e n s u s -----------------------------------\ Twelfth District* Under 1,000 1,000 to 2,499 2,500 to 4,999 5,000 to 14,999 15,000 to 49,999 50,000 to 99,999 620 136 175 100 93 51 14 51 $6.77 5.90 .87 5.00 1.65 $7.82 6.96 .85 5.71 2.14 $7.53 6.78 .75 5.70 2.10 $7.37 6.61 .77 5.54 2.01 $7.32 6.52 .80 5.24 1.82 $7.16 6.14 1.01 5.14 1.75 $6.91 5.97 .94 5.64 2.01 $6.29 5.40 .89 4.63 1.42 .08 2.03 1.23 1.77 .82 .95 .73 .13 1.98 1.46 2.10 .80 1.30 1.23 .13 1.95 1.51 1.82 1.03 .79 .69 .12 2.02 1.39 1.84 1.33 .51 .68 .07 1.99 1.36 2.07 1.14 .93 .85 .10 1.92 1.39 2.02 1.14 .88 .64 .07 2.18 1.37 1.27 1.09 .18 .72 .08 2.06 1.08 1.66 .56 1.10 .70 87.05 12.95 89.06 10.94 90.15 9.85 89.56 10.44 89.13 10.87 85.91 14.09 86.40 13.60 85.82 14.18 73.79 24.41 73.10 27.44 75.81 27.98 75.09 27.18 71.63 24.81 71.77 24.47 81.55 29.06 73.57 22.51 1.24 29.93 18.21 26.21 12.19 14.02 10.79 1.72 25.32 18.62 26.90 10.25 16.65 15.70 1.74 25.98 20.10 24.19 13.74 10.45 9.17 1.65 27.39 18.86 24.91 17.99 6.92 9.25 .94 27.23 18.65 28.37 15.73 12.64 11.57 .95 26.87 19.49 28.23 16.00 12.23 9.01 1.02 31.61 19.86 18.45 15.85 2.60 10.40 1.23 32.72 17.10 26.44 8.97 17.47 11.13 t h e r O p e r a t i n g R a 100,000 and Over t i o s (Amount per $100) Earning Assets to Invested Capital... $724.82 $616.63 $629.70 $703.25 $691.82 $728.37 $794.74 $754.15 8.02 6.89 4.69 3.60 6.40 6.37 1.43 8.29 Profits to Invested Capital............... 1.91 1.86 1.93 1.93 1.86 2.32 2.28 Interest on Deposits to Gross Deposits 2.11 40.11 41.20 38.54 41.64 42.24 39.96 37.48 36.55 Time Deposits to Gross Deposits. 66.44 59.50 60.14 67.96 58.68 62.37 79.28 53.54 Losses on Loans to Total Losses 7.71 9.51 7.22 9.25 10.37 8.34 16.91 Losses on Securities to Total Losses.. 12.10 24.33 24.05 33.28 29.48 28.39 12.38 29.55 Other Losses to Total Losses............ 29.22 M i s c e l l a n e o u s C o m p a r a t i v e I t e m s (Per Cent of District Total) Earning Assets Gross Deposits 100.0 100.0 100.0 4.54 3.86 4.17 8.64 7.50 8.22 6.36 6.17 6.71 12.66 12.08 12.96 12.27 12.32 13.23 4.81 5.30 5.17 50.72 52.77 49.54 *Includes figures fo r A rizon a and N evada which are not shown separately because o f small num bers o f banks included. T hese ratios are based upon data taken from the custom ary abstracts o f reports o f conditions and o f earnings, expenses, and dividends. It should be b orn e in mind in using them that the statistics em ployed represent aggregates for all m em ber banks reporting on the' various dates, and such ratios as are shown in this table are therefore ratios o f aggregates in which figures fo r large banks have a statistical influence somewhat disproportionate to their number in com parison with the figures for small banks. Data are only fo r m em ber banks for which com plete condition reports fo r every call in a particular year were available. W here reports for any bank were not com plete during any year all figures for that bank were om itted. NOTE: The character of the work and the large amount of data involved in preparing these operating ratios have resulted in occasional clerical errors. It is, therefore, necessary to regard the figures now being published as preliminary data, subject to some revision. Complete and final figures, including those for 1928, will probably be published during 1929.
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