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r ^ r n MONTHLY REVIEW t w e l f t h N o vem ber f e d e r a l r e s e r v e d i s t r i c t Fe d e r a l 1 9 5 2 reserve Ba n k of S a n Fr a n c i s c o REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS activity in both the nation and the Twelfth B District moved upward during September and Oc tober. Employment, industrial production, and personal incomes all reached new postwar highs, and unemploy ment dropped to its lowest level since World War II. Declines in seasonal lines which contract during the fall were less than usual, and the increase in expanding sea sonal industries was stronger than expected. The up ward impetus continued to reflect record business ex penditures on new plant and equipment, a considerable proportion of which represents expansion for defense production. Furthermore, industries hitherto static or depressed began to show definite signs of new life. Pro duction of major household durable goods, which in the past year or so has fallen sharply from the peak rates reached in the second half of 1950 and early 1951, recov ered considerably in September and October. The recov ery stems from rising expenditures by consumers on the one hand and increased holdings for inventory by whole salers and retailers on the other. Gains in output at tex tile and paper mills and in nondurable lines generally have also contributed to the recent rise in the over-all level of business activity. In October the number of workers idled by labor-management disputes was very small and this too contributed to the high rate of activity in the economy. u s in e s s Prices remain stable as individual m ovements are offset The level of average wholesale and consumer prices continued to exhibit a high degree of stability throughout October and early November, although a slight down ward tendency was noticeable in wholesale prices. This stability in the general level of prices, however, conceals somewhat the divergent movements of individual series within the framework of the price structure. Prices of basic commodities have weakened recently because of expanding supplies and the cessation of inventory ac cumulation for some items, particularly base metals, A few basic commodities that experienced spectacular drops after the price break in early 1951 have exhibited considerable firmness recently. Prominent examples are hides and wool. Livestock and meat prices have con tinued to decline because of record marketings and large numbers of meat animals on farms. Manufactured con sumer goods, under pressure from increased wage and other production costs, have maintained a stable trend in recent months. In contrast, prices of other manufactured goods have been declining slowly, reflecting reduced raw material costs. Consumer prices, which had been rising almost without interruption since early 1950, declined slightly in September, largely as the result of lower food prices, especially for fruits and vegetables. A minor rise in the consumer price index occurred in October, how ever. Treasury's new m oney n e e d s satisfied for fiscal 7 953 The issue of some $2 billion in tax anticipation cer tificates in early November completed the financing of the Treasury’s new money needs for the fiscal year end ing next June. This new money was needed to meet the fairly heavy deficits during the first half of the fiscal year. Tax receipts in the last half of fiscal 1953 (January through June) will be sufficient to cover expenditures, and no net additions to the public debt are expected dur ing the remainder of the fiscal year. Though no additions to the Federal deficit are ex pected in the second half of the fiscal year, expenditures will continue to expand. Under present schedules spend ing for defense procurement will continue to grow until some time in the latter half of 1953. Even after allow ance for the expansion in facilities and output which has already occurred, the defense program as scheduled will continue to supply some stimulus to the economy next year. District employm ent up a ga in in Septem ber The number of persons at work in nonfarm activities in the Twelfth District was higher in September than in any previous September for which data are available. Nonagricultural employment totaled almost 5.6 million in September, a slight rise (0.6 percent) from August A ls o in This Is s u e How Will the Farmer Fare in 1953? 98 FEDERAL RESERVE B A N K OF SAN FRANCISCO but more than 3.5 percent ahead of September a year ago. The increase over last year would have been significantly greater had not labor-management disputes in the air craft and mining industries been reflected in the Septem ber employment data. The strike in aircraft plants in southern California, settled shortly after the employment data were collected in September, affected more than 40,000 workers at its peak, but only 25,000 workers were out during the week in which employment data were collected. October employment moved up because of ex pansion in various lines and also as a result of the strike settlement. An adverse influence on the current employ ment picture results from the dry weather in the Pacific Northwest. The fire hazard during the autumn months reduced logging operations substantially, and power shortages have cut into the output of aluminum and threaten to do likewise in other industries. In the extractive industries employment has been ad versely affected by labor difficulties in Utah’s coal mines and by cutbacks in base metal operations throughout the District because of weak markets. During September the extractive industries were the only major classification to register a decline from 1951 levels. The principal por tion of this decline, however, was eliminated when strik ing workers returned to the mines in late September. It is significant to note that despite the current record level of employment all but one of the major labor mar ket areas in the District are classified by the United States Bureau of Employment Security as having mod erate labor surpluses. The exception, San Diego, is classi fied as having a balanced labor demand and supply situ ation, an improvement over the extremely tight position it was in for most of 1951 and the early months of this year. Shortages of specific skills, such as engineers and highly skilled artisans, are still a problem in most of the major labor market areas, particularly in the centers of aircraft production, namely Los Angeles, Seattle, and San Diego. Although moderate labor surpluses exist in most major labor markets, the level of unemployment in the District remains quite low. Insured unemployment in September was 18 percent lower than in August and was more than 21 percent under the level of September a year ago. * Building permit volume up sharply Construction activity, as reflected by the number and value of building permits issued by local building author ities throughout the District, rose sharply in October relative to the same month a year ago. The total value of construction represented by the October building permits was almost 42 percent greater than for those issued dur ing October 1951. The major proportion of the gain oc curred in permits for new dwelling units, which increased 57 percent while nonresidential permits rose less than 24 percent. Nonresidential construction has had a much less impressive record than home building throughout most of the year. November 1952 Large gains in total building authorized occurred in October in almost every major area of the District. Idaho provided the major exception, reporting a slight decline in building authorized. In Utah and Nevada the increase over last year was 170 percent, in sharp contrast with the reduced levels that have prevailed in these states for most of the year. Gains in other states of the District ranged from 57 percent in Oregon to 19 percent in Wash ington. In the Los Angeles metropolitan area, where a large percentage of total building activity in the District has taken place since W orld War II, the October rise brought permit valuation to a level approximately 98 percent above October last year. Electric pow er situation worsens in the Pacific Northwest The Pacific Northwest power situation has grown considerably worse as the period of extremely dry weather has been prolonged. Stream flows, which de termine the output of hydro-electric power, have de clined to a point where it has become necessary to cut back not only interruptible supplies but firm power con tracts as well. Cuts in interruptible hydro-electric power supplies, which were ordered in early September, affect the aluminum industry primarily. The effect of a cut back in the supply to holders of firm contracts, however, is much broader and will reduce output in a wide range of industries in the area, although here again aluminum producers will be the major sufferers. A 10 percent cut in firm contracts was ordered by the Defense Electric Power Administration to take effect on November 17. An additional cut in these supplies is in prospect for early December unless stream flows have improved by that time. Available standby steam electric generating facili ties have been put into operation, but this will offset only a small proportion of the hydro-electric loss. Also, the use of this type of power is not attractive to large consumers because of the relatively high cost of steam power. The loss in the output of aluminum is estimated to run as high as one million pounds daily, or very roughly 40 percent of capacity in the Pacific Northwest. While this is a substantial loss in the output of a critical metal, the effect on the economy in the area is less severe than the production figures alone would indicate. The aluminum reduction process does not utilize large numbers of em ployees per unit of output as is the case in many other industries and hence employment losses have not been large. Job losses in logging and lumbering resulting from dry weather (numbering almost 4,000 in Washington alone in September) have been of greater importance in restraining employment growth. It appears probable that, owing to the lateness of the season, some power shortage will continue until stream flows are replenished by the runoff from winter snows. As a result year-period comparisons of employment and output for the Pacific Northwest may be unfavorable during the next few months. M O N T H L Y REVIEW November 1952 Increase in b a nk loans greater than last year Bank loans to business rose sharply during October and November at weekly reporting member banks in the Twelfth District. Commercial, industrial, and agricul tural loans at these banks increased about $200 million during this period, nearly twice the rise in the same months a year ago. Real estate loans increased by $40 million in sharp contrast to a gain of only $8 million in 99 the corresponding period of 1951. Also, loans to consum ers, used largely in the financing of purchases of durable household goods and automobiles, rose substantially more than during the same interval last year, reflecting the somewhat better position of durable goods sales in the total sales of District merchants. Total loans out standing at weekly reporting member banks rose $751 million in the twelve months ending on November 26, a gain of 10 percent. H O W WILL THE FARMER FARE IN 1953? , as well as businessmen, are particularly in terested at this time in forecasts for next year. In Oc tober agricultural economists from all parts of the coun try attended the Annual Agricultural Outlook Confer ence in Washington. At this Conference the United States Department of Agriculture presented a forecast for agri culture in 1953 and also offered some advice on farm financing problems. According to the Department’s fore cast, farmers can look forward to another good year in 1953, but they can not exactly sit back and relax. In arriving at the forecast, it was assumed that there would be no radical change in the international situation and that weather conditions would be reasonably favor able. Total production of agricultural products in 1953 may reach the record level established this year, which is about 43 percent above the prewar 1935-39 average. Do mestic demand for farm products is expected to hold up well next year as continued high levels of employment and consumer income are anticipated. Employment should be sustained by a further rise in national defense spending and continued large volume of business invest ment and construction. The last half of 1953, however, should be viewed with some caution. A leveling off of de fense expenditures, if accompanied by a slackening in F a r m e r s U N IT E D ST A T E S A G R IC U L T U R A L P R O D U C T IO N A N D P R IC E S , 1940-52 N e t incom e of farmers m ay decline Prices received by farmers n r .. - / r " y N - k f - - Production 7 7 * -------- 1940 1943 i ......-J-----1946 1 1949 .■!---- % 1952 Source: United States Department of Agriculture, Bureau of Agricultural Economics. business investment, could result in a decrease in over all business activity with a decline in consumer income available for the purchase of farm products. Foreign demand for United States farm products is down from the record 1951-52 level of $4 billion, and it is expected that farm exports in 1952-53 may be lower by as much as 20 percent. The factors contributing to this expected decline are: (1 ) the continuing dollar problem in countries which constitute our principal mar kets and (2 ) more ample agricultural supplies in other exporting countries as well as in some of the importing countries themselves. Another factor felt to be of some significance is recent protectionist measures taken by this country against some categories of foreign imports. This could mean curtailment of available dollars to pur chase those United States agricultural products tradi tionally exported. Prices received by farmers in 1952 average about 3 percent below 1951. Some further easing of prices will probably occur in 1953, particularly for meat animals and vegetables. Continuation of the present high level of de mand, however, should prevent any drastic price decline for farm products, even if record production is achieved again next year. Farmers’ gross income has been increasing since the end of World War II, except for a dip in 1949 and 1950, and will reach a record high in 1952. In contrast to record gross income, the net income of farmers this year will be 16 percent below the peak reached in 1947 and fractionally lower than in 1951. Steadily increasing farm costs account for this decline in net income. With con tinued high levels of production and with only moderate price declines forecast for next year, gross income re ceived by farmers in 1953 is expected to approximate this year’s high. Net farm income, on the other hand, is expected to drop by possibly as much as 5 percent, ac cording to the Department of Agriculture. This forecast of a decline in net income reflects an anticipated further increase in farm costs, though at a slower rate, and some what lower prices. With this outlook for 1953, no major readjustments for the farmer loom in the immediate future. Neverthe less, as the Department of Agriculture points out, this may be a good time for the individual farmer to re-ex 100 FEDERAL RESERVE B A N K OF SA N FRANCISCO amine his over-all financial position and his financing practices, as well as the efficiency of his farm production and marketing operations. With the prospect of a gen eral leveling off or slight decline in prices of farm prod ucts, a drop in farm exports, and a continuation of the trend toward lower net farm income, a general stock taking would do no harm. It is during periods of relative stability that evaluation of financing practices can more easily be made and adjustments effected. The farmer in a sound financial position can adjust his operations more smoothly to meet any future changes in the level of eco nomic activity— no matter in which direction it may turn. Financial condition of farmers generally is good The over-all financial position of farmers generally continues to be good. Total assets of agriculture, valued at current prices and including financial assets, will be about $172 billion by January 1953, a 2 percent in crease over 1952, as compared with increases of 12 per cent and 9 percent in the two preceding years. Any in crease in farm real estate values is expected to be small in 1953, but financial assets of farmers may continue to increase somewhat. On the liability side, farm mortgage debt, which rose 7 percent during 1952, is expected to continue upward, although at a slower rate. The farm mortgage debt of $6.7 billion, however, is small relative to farm real estate value of $96 billion. Non-real estate debt has continued to increase substantially, and it ap pears probable that the present total of $8 billion (ex cluding CCC recourse loans) will go up another 10 per cent in 1953. Financing problems of the individual farmer While the financial position of farmers generally is favorable, the financial condition of individual farmers varies widely. Each is faced with his own particular financing problems. Some farmers who have accumuI N C O M E O F F A R M O P E R A T O R S , U N I T E D S T A T E S , 1940-521 Billions of dollars 40 i Gross farm! income **+•-»** t ‘Production texpenses 20 Ja m 10 I Realized net income | 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1 Gross farm income and realized net income include nonmoney income. S o u rce’. United States Department of Agriculture, Bureau of Agricultural Economics. November 1952 lated a relatively large volume of debt, particularly crop loans carried over from previous years, might well con centrate on reducing their debt during this period of fav orable farm income. For other farmers, this may be the proper time to accumulate more liquid financial assets which can be set aside as reserves to meet future repay ments on debt, operating expenses, or for replacement of equipment. For those farmers who have accumulated an excessive amount of short-term loans which will require several years for repayment, some conversion to long-term debt may be advisable. This should not be necessary, how ever, for the farmer who merely borrows to meet annual production expenses and who can make repayment in a year or so. Marginal operators with relatively low in comes and poorly equipped farms may find increasing difficulty in meeting the competition of more efficient op erators. To continue in business they may ultimately have to increase production and reduce unit costs. This is likely to require additional capital expenditures for many of them and may pose difficult financing problems in some cases. A look at the debt structure of western farmers The financial situation of western farmers, like that of farmers generally, is good. As far as real estate values are concerned, the West1 is in a unique position. It is the only region where farm land values since the Korean War have increased less than farm income. Cash receipts from marketings for the year ending June 1952 were 37 percent above pre-Korean levels, while land values had increased only 20 percent. In the Twelfth District, dur ing this period, only the states of Arizona and Washing ton had increases in land values in excess of the percent age increase in cash receipts from marketings. One reason for the smaller increase in farm land values in the West may be the large amount of irrigated land. Land values on irrigated land tend to fluctuate less widely than on other types of farm land because of relatively high costs of most irrigated crops and because production, being less dependent upon weather, is more stable. Allowance may also have been made, in capitalizing returns into land values, for the anticipated decline in cattle prices. While land values in the West have increased rela tively less, farm mortgage debt has increased relatively more than in any other area. At the beginning of 1952 it was 72 percent above 1946 and 12 percent higher than in January 1951. In spite of this substantial increase, farm mortgage debt does not appear excessive in relation to farm real estate values in the West. The volume of farm real estate loans has continued to increase this year, but in the Twelfth District the slow farm real estate market is expected to retard the rate of increase of farm mortgage debt next year. Federal Land Banks have been enlarging their share of farm mortgage holdings, while the share held by commercial banks has 1 Eleven western states. November 1952 M O N T H L Y REVIEW been declining. Between October 10, 1951 and Septem ber 5, 1952, both Call Report dates, the volume of farm real estate loans held by District member banks declined about 3 percent. Twelfth District commercial bank rates on farm real estate loans have remained steady around 5 percent and no significant change in rates is antici pated in the near future. There is no evidence of loan curtailment, but banks state that they will continue to re view loans with caution. Loan repayment experience of banks and other lenders has been generally excellent and should continue to be so unless net farm income declines much more than presently forecast. As in the rest of the country, non-real estate loans in the Twelfth District have increased substantially. CCC loans by member banks in the Twelfth District rose 73 percent between October 10, 1951 and September 5, 1952, and other short-term loans increased 21 percent. The Production Credit Associations and the Bank for Cooperatives also report substantial increases in short term loan volume. With stable or lower farm prices and continued increases in farm costs forecast for next year, the demand for short-term loans is expected to increase again in 1953. Interest rates of commercial banks on short-term farm loans are up from y2 to 1 percent over a year ago, depending upon the size and type of loan, and District PC A ’s have increased their rate percent over last year. Present demands for short-term loans are being met, and there is no indication that lenders ex pect to curtail the supply of money they will make avail able next year. Loan collections in the crop areas of the District are generally excellent. Some reports, however, have been received from Production Credit Associations of slow repayments on cattle and sheep loans owing to lower prices. 101 number of cattle slaughtered off range and pasture should tend to relieve tightness in the feed situation. Carry-over stocks of feed grains are down, but supplies, particularly of corn, appear to be generally adequate. Some deficien cies, however, may develop on a regional basis, espe cially in the areas damaged by drought. Little variation in feed prices is expected in 1953, as the supply per grain consuming animal unit should be about equal to this year’s ratio. Dairy and poultry products: Egg production to date has been above the 1951 record level, and egg prices have been substantially lower than last year. As a result of the low prices in the spring of 1952, farmers reduced the number of chickens raised for laying flock replacements by 7 percent. The rate of lay should continue to increase, as in recent years, but will not be sufficient to make up for smaller laying flocks. Therefore, with high consumer demand, egg prices next spring are expected to rise above those of last spring, and profits of egg producers should improve in 1953. Turkey producers have also been receiving lower prices as a result of record large production. It appears that the number of both heavy-breed turkeys and small turkeys will decline in 1953, with some improvement in prices. In contrast, a small increase in broiler output is expected in 1953. This may lead to a moderate price decline and a further narrowing of the average per-unit profit margin. United States Department of Agriculture forecasts for specific commodities Milk production, which declined this year because of hot, dry weather, may increase slightly in 1953. Except for a continuation of the decline in the consumption of milk fat, consumer demand is expected to remain strong. Prices for dairy products may be a little higher next year. This is not expected to increase net income materially, but may result in some improvement in the relative at tractiveness of dairying as compared to other farm en terprises. Meat: Total meat production next year may be up by 4 percent to establish a peacetime record. Over the past four years cattle numbers have been increasing. The ef fect is now being evidenced in the larger volume of mar ketings of cattle and in lower prices, particularly for cows and feeder cattle. Prices for all grades of beef are expected to drop moderately in 1953 as the volume of cattle slaughtering continues to increase. In spite of smaller receipts, average profits from cattle put on feed this fall are expected to be good as prices paid by farmers for feeder cattle have been sharply lower. Hog slaughter, on the other hand, is expected to drop next year below the 1952 volume. In spite of the smaller supply of hogs, competition from increased marketing of beef should prevent higher hog prices. Little change is expected in the volume of sheep and lamb slaughter next year, and prices, which are down severely from the peaks of 1951, will probably remain at present levels or decline slightly. Although total livestock numbers may increase some what further, a reduction in hog numbers and a larger Cotton and wool: While total production of cotton has fallen off this year, California and Arizona had record levels of acreage and production. These two states will account for 19 percent of the total United States crop, an increase from 17 percent in 1951. A moderate in crease in domestic demand for cotton next year will prob ably be more than offset by lower foreign demand, owing in large part to an increase in production and stocks of cotton in non-communist countries; consequently, a smaller disappearance of cotton is forecast for next sea son, and therefore an increase in carry-over supply can be anticipated. W ool production will probably remain about the same next year, with little change in return to growers. Wheat: Although the wheat production goal for 1953 has been reduced by over 5 million seeded acres and lack of rainfall in the Southwest and Pacific Northwest has not been favorable to fall seeding, wheat supplies may still exceed domestic and export requirements. United States supplies of wheat are estimated to be the third largest in history, and the carry-over by next July will 102 FEDERAL RESERVE B A N K OF SAN FRANCISCO probably be double that of July 1952. United States ex ports of wheat may be 30 percent lower in 1952-53 as a result of the bumper wheat crop in Canada and more fav orable harvests in some European countries and in India. Since 90 percent of parity support price applies to the 1953 wheat crop, prices may not differ markedly from those of this year. Potatoes: Not since 1936 has potato production been as low as in 1951 and 1952. With favorable weather con ditions next year, yields should increase even if acreage planted remains the same. Short supplies, owing in part to unfavorable weather, caused prices to hit a twentyfive-year high. With a return to more normal supply con ditions in 1953, prices should decline. Fruits and vegetables: Continued strong demand for fresh, canned, and frozen vegetables is forecast for 1953. Sharp variations in prices of truck crops for fresh market were caused this year by unfavorable weather in some areas, resulting in alternate periods of scarcity and glut. November 1952 With an increase in total production of truck crops fore cast for next year, prices should be below the relatively high levels reached in 1952. Demand for fruit and nuts is also expected to con tinue high. Smaller carry-over stocks of canned fruits may result in larger requirements from processors, which would help to sustain or even increase prices for decid uous fruit. The new export-pay ment program for rais ins, put into effect in September, is expected to increase the volume of raisin exports. As a result of decreased demand from Western European countries, however, over-all fruit exports will probably decline in 1953. With average weather next year, some increases in produc tion of fruit crops are forecast by Department of Agri culture economists, but prices received by growers prob ably will not vary much from this year. Little change is expected in citrus fruit production in California; the peach crop in Pacific Coast states may be up, and an in crease is forecast for apple and pear production in Wash ington and plum and prune production in California. M O N T H L Y REVIEW November 1952 103 BUSINESS INDEXES—TWELFTH DISTRICT1 (1947-49 average = 100) In d u strial pro du ction (ph ysical v o lu m e )1 Y e ar and m o n th Lum ber Petroleum® C rude R e fin e d C e m e n t Lead* C opper3 W heat flour* T o ta l W aterb o rn e nonagri- T o ta l C ar D ep’ t foreign m f ’g cu ltu ral loadings store Retail tratJe3» 8 E le c tric e m p lo y e m p lo y (n u m sales food power m e n t4 ber)2 m ent (v a lu e)2 prices*’ 6 E x p o rts Im p o rts 97 51 41 44 54 70 74 58 72 79 93 93 90 90 72 85 97 104 99 112 114 87 57 52 52 62 64 71 75 67 67 69 74 85 93 97 94 100 101 99 98 106 78 55 50 50 56 61 65 64 63 63 68 71 83 93 98 91 98 100 103 103 112 54 36 27 35 33 58 56 45 56 61 81 96 79 63 65 81 96 104 100 112 128 165 100 72 76 86 96 114 92 93 108 109 114 100 90 78 70 94 105 101 109 89 105 49 17 24 37 64 88 58 80 94 107 123 125 112 90 71 106 101 93 115 115 90 86 75 81 87 81 84 81 91 87 87 88 98 101 112 108 113 98 88 86 95 29 29 26 28 30 34 38 36 40 43 49 60 76 82 78 78 90 101 108 119 136 1951 September October November December 105 118 109 99 107 107 107 106 116 114 116 109 129 130 124 119 74 80 85 88 108 116 114 118 96 96 99 101 1952 January February March April M ay June July August September 93 107 108 110 94 117 108 106 109 106 106 106 107 108 107 107 107 107 111 113 115 114 114 116 116 122 122 94 112 113 120 129 126 125 131 131 88 104 96 95 89 87 68 81 76 109 109 115 117 116 112 106 105r 112 112 105 90 88 87 84 90 103 99 1929 1931 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 30 25 18 21 24 28 30 28 31 33 40 49 59 65 72 91 99 104 98 105 108 64 50 42 45 48 48 50 48 47 47 52 63 69 68 70 80 96 103 100 100 113 190 138 110 132 135 131 170 164 163 132 124 80 72 78 109 116 119 87 95 101 'iô ô 101 96 95 99 102 99 103 110 "4 7 54 60 51 55 63 83 121 164 158 122 104 100 102 98 105 119 102 68 52 60 66 77 81 72 77 82 95 102 99 105 100 101 106 100 94 97 100 "¿ 9 129 86 85 91 186 "¿ 7 81 98 121 137 157 135 141 140 136 110 111 111 111 118 120 121 120 104 101 101 100 108 106 114 110 112 113 114 117 215 187 182 192 155 172 144 130 142 139 142 141 147 150 150 153 145 113 113 112 112 112 113 114 114 114 122 124 125 126 125 126 127 129 127 86 101 100 106 98 108 96 101 108 106 108 103 106 118 115 110 116 114 116 114 114 116 115 115 114 114 114 183 208 210 185 207 187 144 146 138 157 143 143 182 187 BANKING AND CREDIT STATISTICS—TWELFTH DISTRICT (amounts in millions of dollars) C o n d itio n ite m s o f all m e m b e r b a n k s 7 Year and m o n th U .S . Loans D em an d and d e posits G o v ’t d is c o u n t s s e c u r itie s a d ju s te d 8 T o ta l t im e d eposits B ank rates on short-term b u sin ess loans* M e m b e r ban k reserves and related it e m s 10 Reserve bank cred it11 — + — 1929 1931 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 2,239 1,898 1,486 1,469 1,537 1,682 1,871 1,869 1,967 2,130 2,451 2,170 2,106 2,254 2,663 4,068 5,358 6,032 5,925 7,105 7,907 495 547 720 1,064 1,275 1,334 1,270 1,323 1,450 1,482 1,738 3,630 6,235 8,263 10,450 8,426 7,247 6,366 7,016 6,392 6,533 1,234 984 951 1,201 1,389 1,791 1,740 1,781 1,983 2,390 2,893 4,356 5,998 6,950 8,203 8,821 8,922 8,655 8,536 9,244 9,940 1,790 1,727 1,609 1,875 2,064 2,101 2,187 2,221 2,267 2,360 2,425 2,609 3,226 4,144 5,211 5,797 6,006 6,087 6,255 6,256 6,720 3.20 3.35 3.66 1951 October November December 7,791 7,885 7,907 6,204 6,356 6,533 9,485 9,584 9,940 6,642 6,625 6,720 3.82 1952 January February March April M ay June July August September October 7,806 7,760 7,787 7,850 7,921 8,062 8,114 8,270 8,444 8,605 6,543 6,413 6,378 6,313 6,238 6,258 6,507 6,469 6,473 6,765 9,951 9,420 9,426 9,408 9,306 9,501 9,643 9,679 9,908 10,125 6,806 6,900 6,915 6,924 6,985 7,083 7,143 7,197 7,249 7,336 34 21 2 7 2 + 6 + 1 — 3 2 + 2 + 4 + + 107 + 214 98 + 76 9 + — 302 17 + 13 + 39 + 21 — 0 154 110 198 163 227 90 240 192 148 596 —1,980 -3 ,7 5 1 - 3 ,5 3 4 - 3 ,7 4 3 - 1 ,6 0 7 510 + 472 930 -1 ,1 4 1 -1 ,5 8 2 + 23 + 154 + 150 + 257 + 219 4- 454 - f 157 + 276 + 245 + 420 + 1 ,0 0 0 + 2 ,8 2 6 + 4 ,4 8 6 + 4 ,4 8 3 + 4 ,6 8 2 + 1 ,3 2 9 + 698 482 + 378 + 1 ,1 9 8 + 1 ,9 8 3 — 121 236 276 - 143 239 102 + + + 283 118 279 84 180 309 + 176 52 + — 211 45 + + 213 230 + 236 - 228 109 17 237 174 97 208 126 153 294 + + + + + + + + + 194 I ll 272 102 185 190 288 163 213 267 + + + 3.94 3.95 3.96 C oin and C o m m ercia l Treasury cu rrency in op éra tio n s12 o p era tio n s12 circ u la tio n 11 _ + + + + + + + + + + + + — — — — + + + + + + + + + + + + Reserves B ank debits Index 31 cities»» « (1 9 4 7 -4 9 100)* 6 48 18 4 14 38 3 20 31 96 227 643 708 789 545 326 206 209 65 14 189 176 147 185 242 287 479 549 565 584 754 930 1,232 1,462 1,706 2,033 2,094 2,202 2,420 1,924 2,026 2,269 42 28 18 21 25 30 32 29 30 32 39 48 61 69 76 87 95 103 102 115 132 17 18 14 2,291 2,392 2,269 134 137 141 86 20 7 13 49 29 7 49 4 32 2,416 2,365 2,313 2,341 2,347 2,209 2,333 2,535 2,363 2,527 134 138 139 135 128 144 134 134 144 146 1 Adjusted for seasonal variation, except where indicated. Except for department store statistics, all indexes are based upon data from outside sources, as follows: himber, various lumber trade associations; petroleum, cement, copper, and lead, U.S. Bureau of Mines; wheat flour, U .S. Bureau of the Census; electric power, Federal Power Commission* nonagricultural and manufacturing employment, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and cooperating state agencies; retail food prices, U .S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; carloadings, various railroads and railroad associations; and foreign trade, U.S. Bureau of the Census. 2 Daily average. ‘ N ot adjusted for seasonal variation. * Excludes fish, fruit, and vegetable canning. 6 Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Seattle indexes combined. 6 Commercial cargo only, in physical volume, for Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego, Oregon, and Washington customs districts; starting with July 1950, “ special category" exports are excluded because of security reasons. 7 Annual figures are as of end of year, monthly figures as of last Wednesday in month or, where applicable, as of call report date. 8 Demand deposits, excluding interbank and U.S. G ov’t deposits, less cash items in process of collection. Monthly data partly estimated. • Average rates on loans made in five major cities during the first 15 days of the month. 10 End of year and end of month figures. 11 Changes from end of previous month or year. 12 Minus sign indicates flow of funds out of the District in the case of commercial operations, and excess of receipts over disbursements in the case of Treasury operations. 1$ Debits to total deposit accounts, excluding inter-bank deposits. r— revised.
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