The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
M F ’ iV b * t o b e r e l e a s e d f o r p u b l i c a t i o n b e f o r e th e m o r n in g o f N o v e m b e r 1 , 1 9 2 0 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO JO H N P E R R IN C H A IR M A N O F T H E B O A R D Fed eral, r e se r v e a g en t a n d GENERAL BUSINESS AND AGRICULTURAL CONDITIONS IN THE TWELFTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT October 16, 1920. The Month. Preliminary forecasts of good crops throughout this dis trict have been justified by the harvest, which is now practically com plete. Total production of grains and fruits will generally exceed the high figures of 1919, although apples, prunes and beans will show dimin ished yields. The uncertainty which prevailed a month ago as to what prices would be received for the crops has been largely removed, and it is now apparent that, while these prices are generally lower than those obtained last year, they nevertheless yield a profitable return to the grower. This promises sound business conditions throughout the greater part of this largely agricultural district. In the wool and cotton producing communities, however, depression is still felt, as the prices currently offered for these two commodities are still below what growers claim to be their cost of production. The lum ber industry continues to show a falling off in new business received, which is attributed to the effect of the new freight rates, and several mills are preparing to shut down. Business conditions generally reveal the transition period through which we are passing and no pronounced characterization of the im mediate situation can be made. The foreign commerce of the district is falling off, business failures have increased slightly, and interest rates are unchanged at high levels; but on the other hand the transportation situation is improving slightly, there are no strikes or labor disturb ances, building activity is increasing, bank clearings and debits to indi vidual accounts are in excess of last month’s figures, and banks are meeting without difficulty the seasonal demand for handling the crops. The volume of retail trade throughout the district is approximately the same as in August while the wholesale trade reports increased activity in some lines and decreases in others. The disposition of the buying public is plainly to watch and wait. Grains. The harvesting of grains has been practically completed in the states of the Twelfth Federal Reserve District. Heavy rains in the Pacific Northwest throughout the month of September delayed thresh ing and slightly reduced the estimated yields. The production per acre in California and Arizona was found to be somewhat below earlier ex pectations as the harvest proceeded, but Utah and Nevada report in creased yields due to favorable growing and harvesting conditions. The grain market as a whole has been a declining one and trading has been sluggish accordingly. Farmers have been holding for better prices, and buyers, especially millers, are slow to accumulate stocks. It is estimated that only about one-third of the crop has passed out of first hands. In the wheat districts of Oregon, Washington, and Idaho, prices to the grower were maintained at about 15 cents above those of last year, until the break in the market in the latter part of September. At that time they fell to $1.90 to $2.00 a bushel, depending on the variety, compared with last year’s September prices of $2.00 to $2.16 a bushel. In the other states of the district, where local demand determines the market, prices have not been so responsive to eastern market variations and the grow ers have received from $2.00 to $2.25 a bushel. The demand for barley is very light and prices show a further decline, growers receiving from 80 to 90 cents a bushel for feed barley and 90 cents to $1.05 for brewing barley. The chief cause of the decline has been the lack of European demand. The United Kingdom, which is normally the heaviest buyer, finds itself well supplied, due to large pur chases during the last two years and a good domestic crop, and is only taking barley previously contracted for. About 200,000 tons have already been exported from this district and allowing for a consumption of 225,000 tons within its borders, there will remain an exportable surplus of over 200,000 tons. Oats, although showing a slightly improved demand late in September continued to be the weakest of the grains. Prices to the grower range from 75 cents to 83 cents a bushel in the coastal states and 96 cents a bushel in the intermountain region. There is little movement even at these prices. [2] A comparative statement of the estimated wheat, barley and oat pro duction in the seven states of this district follows: W HEAT A r i z o n a ....................... Ca l if o r n ia ............... I daho ............................ N evada ......................... O regon ....................... U t a h ........................... W a s h in g t o n .......... T w e l f t h D is t r ic t . U n it e d St a t e s . . . . O ct. 1 1920 1,118 9,840 2 1,364 627 21,700 5 ,844 3 6,104 BARLEY OATS O ct, 1 1920 364 5,000 8,360 588 12,600 2,940 14,265 S ept. 1 1920 429 5,576 9,311 586 14,000 2,859 12,937 O c t . 1 S ept. 1 1920 1920 20 20 675 700 101 98 11 11 67 65 18 19 110 109 S ept. 1 1920 1,118 9,840 21,686 593 21 ,9 2 4 5,397 36,700 1919 1,204 16,335 18,705 667 21.095 3,682 40,100 96,597 97,258 101,788 44,117 45,698 40,283 997 1,027 977 750,648 770,015 940,987 1,144,362 1,442,000 1 ,248,310 4,594 4,677 3,977 1919 533 5,250 7,700 448 1 1,104 2,448 12,800 1919 26 700 80 10 45 17 99 F ig u res fo r w h ea t a n d oats in th o u s a n d s o f b u s h e ls ; fo r b a r le y in th o u s a n d s o f to n s. Looking forward, the largest winter wheat acreage in several seasons is predicted for the Pacific Northwest, as the result of recent weather conditions. Early rains followed by an interval of good weather put the ground in fine condition for fall seeding and the work is well under way. Rice. The cool weather prevailing in the rice districts during Septem ber caused some delay in the ripening of the paddy, but harvesting is now proceeding rapidly. Early October rains caused some damage in fields which had been drained preparatory to harvesting, but the esti mated yield of 3,625,000 bags has not been materially reduced. The market is characterized as depressed and unsettled. Growers are still attempting to hold the paddy rice in hopes of obtaining a price which will cover an approximate net cost of production now estimated at $3.25 per hundred pounds, as it comes from the field. This would necessitate a price to the millers of at least $6.00 a hundredweight for fancy clean rice. The wide fluctuations in the rice market are shown by a com parison of this year’s quotation of $5.35 to $6.00 per hundred pounds f. o. b. mill for California Fancy Japan with last year’s quotation of $10.50 per hundred and the 1918 quotation of $7.50 per hundred. There is little foreign demand for the California crop and large domestic markets have been showing some preference for the large grained varieties of rice, whereas California produces only the Japa nese or small grain rice. The Cuban embargo, which prohibits the im portation of rice into that country, except by government permit, until January 1,1921, has only an indirect effect on the California market, as very little California rice is shipped to Cuba. Cotton. Favored with an adequate labor supply and good weather conditions, cotton picking is progressing satisfactorily in California and Arizona. The gins have been slow to commence operations, however, [3] and only about one-third of the cotton picked has been ginned. The California crop showed a decline during September, as previously re ported unfavorable factors made their effect apparent in decreased yields. The average yield is now forecasted at 225 pounds of lint per acre, from the 278,000 acres sown to cotton. Last year the average yield was 268 pounds of lint per acre on 185,000 acres. The crop in Arizona gained 5,000 bales during the month and is now estimated at 115,000 bales of 500 pounds each, 92,000 bales of which is long staple Pima cotton. The market remains stagnant. Some contracts at 60 cents for long staple cotton are being fulfilled but no sales are reported. Growers are beginning to show a disposition to sell whenever the market opens. The price for short staple cotton, which averages below 30 cents a pound, is claimed to be below the cost of production and the sale of cotton seed offers no relief as it is finding only a casual demand at $20.00 a ton compared with $75.00 a ton last year. Beans. The present season has been a mediocre one with regard to the crop of beans other than limas and an unsuccessful one with regard to the market. High temperatures in July and the absence of fog in the coast counties of California and the lateness of the summer rains in Arizona hurt the crop on unirrigated lands. A heavy carryover, esti mated at 900,000 hundred-pound bags, will, however, offset the poorer crop and smaller acreage. The harvest is well under way in the San Joaquin Valley, Southern California, and Arizona, and will be in full swing in Northern California by the end of October. The estimated pro duction this year compared with last year follow s: 1920 1919 ......................... 1,300,000 bushels 4,464,000 bushels .............................. 78,000 bushels 136,000 bushels C a lifo r n ia A r iz o n a The market is weak and quiet. Shippers’ quotations f. o. b. California range from $7.50 a hundredweight for Bayo beans to $4.25 a hundred weight for large and small white beans. Lima beans show an estimated yield of 1,275,000 hundred-pound bags (including 275,000 bags of baby limas) compared with 950,000 bags in 1919. The carryover from the crop of last year is light, there being approximately 75,000 bags of regular limas in the warehouses and prac tically no baby limas. Opening prices quoted late in September were $7.75 a hundredweight for baby limas and $8.00 a hundredweight for limas. Prices have since fallen to $7.00 and $7.25 per hundredweight, respectively. Last year the market opened at $14.50 per hundredweight for limas but did not hold and the bulk of the crop sold at $10.00 and $11.00 a hundred. [4 ] Potatoes. October first estimates place the yield of potatoes in the Twelfth Federal Reserve District at 37,596,000 bushels compared with an estimate of 37,017,000 bushels on September first, and 31,879,000 bushels in 1919. W eather conditions have benefited the crop with the exception of early plantings in Oregon and Washington, where Septem ber rains started new growth and aided the development of tuber diseases. Growers are selling freely though the market is a declining one. In the coast states the trade is offering $2.00 per cental for selected stock in carload lots and $1.50 to $1.75 per cental for fancy potatoes f. o. b. shipping point. In the Utah district the growers are receiving an average of $1.25 per cental. Tomatoes. A fairly heavy crop of tomatoes in California and Utah, a large carryover of the canned product, and the inability of the can neries to finance themselves on their former scale due to high operating costs and the tightening of credit, have caused considerable congestion in the disposition of this year’s crop of tomatoes. Consequently fresh market supplies are liberal and the market weak. Growers in California are receiving $12.00 a ton when there are buyers. Last year the growers received $18.00 to $20.00 a ton. Packers predict a large reduction in the 1920 pack. Opening prices of $1.50 a dozen for number 2 % tin, solid pack tomatoes and $1.10 for standard pack, have not held and the trade has shown little interest even at much lower prices. Apples. On October first the crop of apples in the Twelfth Federal Reserve District was estimated at 29,058,000 bushels compared with 29,641,300 bushels on September first and 38,484,000 bushels in 1919. Apples from the Pacific Northwest began moving eastward in train load lots during the first week in October and the movement will be steady from now on. Late varieties in this section are maturing earlier than usual and a high quality pack is expected. A shortage of help, especially experienced packers, is reported in the Hood River district. In California the Bellflower yield has fallen considerably below early estimates and the Newtowns are showing a large percentage of culls. The sale of early varieties has been satisfactory both as to price and as to quantity, and the crop has moved to market freely at prices only slightly below those of last year. However, the market shows no tendency to take more than its day to day requirements, and few future sales of the late varieties have been made. Despite eager markets in Great Britain and the Scandinavian countries the export demand is quiet, due to con tinued unfavorable exchange rates for buyers. These countries prefer the boxed apples, and unless the Norwegian embargo on imports except [5] by permit and the contemplated fixing of maximum prices in England on November 15th, seriously interfere, will import a considerable quan tity of fruit. The market for cull apples is still dormant. Some manu facturers of vinegar and some apple driers and canners are operating, but growers are forced to sell at the buyers’ figures. Prices of $6.00 to $9.00 a ton have been set, compared with prices reaching $20.00 a ton last year. During the latter part of September, Washington and Oregon growers held a conference with representatives of the various carriers, at Yakima, and lodged a formal protest against the increased freight rates on apples now in effect. Following this meeting the railroad executives held a meeting in Chicago and on October fifth announced that no reduction in freight rates could be granted. The growers claim that the recent increase has disturbed, to the prejudice of Northwestern producers, the parity previously existing between freight charges from eastern and western shipping centers to common markets. Grapes and Raisins. Owing to the dry season, the 1920 crop of grapes will probably fall short of last year’s crop which totaled 606,538 tons. This included 194,668 tons of table grapes, 371,870 tons of wine grapes, and 40,000 tons of culls and strippings used in wine making. There has been ample help in the vineyards this year but, due to the shortage of refrigerator cars, the shipping season is a little late. It is estimated that there are 8,000 carloads still to be moved if the refrigerator cars are provided. 7,829 cars of grapes were shipped during September. Table grapes and a considerable portion of the wine grapes are finding ready purchasers in the fresh fruit markets. Prices have ruled high and firm and the growers have been receiving $90.00 to $100.00 a ton for the naked grapes. Purchases at these prices have not been uniformly profitable to the trade and there are now signs of weakening, especially in the black grape market. The part of the wine grape crop which is not sold in the fresh fruit markets will be made into various grape products. Last season the wine grape tonnage was disposed of as follow s: 48,450 tons— Sweet wines. 152,570 tons—Dry wines. 128,150 tons— Shipped fresh. 40,000 tons— Unfermented grape juice. 5,200 tons— Grape syrup. 37,500 tons—Dried wine grapes (10,000 dried tons). The refrigerator car shortage has been most acute during the present grape shipping season. Measures have been taken to provide better [6] shipping facilities next year and 6,500 new refrigerator cars are now being constructed for California railroads. 838 of these have already been delivered. The estimate of the 1920 crop of raisins has been reduced and the yield is now placed at 175,000 tons compared with 200,000 tons a month ago. The California Associated Raisin Company will name prices for the unsold portion of the crop in November and independent packers are selling firm against this price. During September hearings were begun on the suit of the Government against the California Associated Raisin Company under the Sherman Act. The application of the Gov ernment for an immediate and temporary injunction, to restrain the Association from doing business, was withdrawn and a compromise, suggested by the company, adopted. Among other things the Asso ciation agrees to sell 40,000 tons of raisins to independent packers for present use, to be put up under the latier’s brands. Prunes. The crop of prunes in Oregon and Washington suffered severely from continued heavy rains in September and the yield was reduced approximately 30 per cent. It is now placed at 40,000,000 pounds as compared with 60,000,000 pounds on September first and 35,000,000 pounds in 1919. Prices in this section are very uncertain as a slow mar ket and a short crop are now exerting opposite influences. At present the growers are receiving about 2 cents a pound under the opening prices named last month by the Oregon Growers Cooperative Asso ciation, which ranged from 7 to 15 cents a pound, bulk basis. In California the condition of the prune crop has improved as the harvest proceeded and the yield is estimated at 95,000 to 100,000 tons. (These figures are in correction of those published in last month’s report). The market, both domestic and foreign, continues dull and buyers are only purchasing for their immediate needs. In an effort to prevent forcing the market under present conditions the California Prune and Apricot Growers Association is arranging a pool for growers, not members of the Association. Advances to the growers will be made on the crop and the prunes put on the market as demand develops. Prices are still held at the opening figures. W alnuts. The walnut season began during the latter part of Septem ber and yields indicate that former estimates placing the 1920 crop at 48,000,000 pounds were correct. The nuts are running large and uni form, and recent tests show only 4 per cent of second quality nuts com pared with 25 per cent in 1919. The California W alnut Association named its opening prices during the second week in October and these [7] will be the basis for future trading. They are nearly 30 per cent lower than last year as is shown by the following table: Grade No. 1 No. 2 F ancy 1920 S o ft S h e l l ................ S o ft S h e l l ................ B u d d e d ....................... S t a n d a r d ....................................... 1919 22y2c ........ 16 M>c 25V2c 22y2c 1918 28c 25c 3iy2c 3iy2c 26c 34c Prices per pound f. o. b. shipping point. Approximately 75 per cent of the crop was sold at opening prices and most of the nuts are expected to move out of the producers’ hands during the holiday season, although the trade is not ordering as freely as in former years. Foreign competition is keen but few foreign purchases were reported prior to the announcement of California prices. French nuts are quoted at 121/2 to 18 cents a pound in New York, duty paid, and Italian nuts at 15 to 16 cents a pound. Number 1 Manchurian nuts are now being offered in the Seattle market at 16 cents a pound. Ranges and Pasture. Pasture throughout the district continues much better than last year and considerably better than the average for the last five years. Cattle and sheep are coming off the summer ranges in good condition and winter pasture is plentiful, except in parts of Cali fornia and Arizona. In these districts the stockmen are on the lookout for outside pasture, in case early rains fail to materialize. Roundups are in progress in Utah, Nevada, and Arizona, and the cattle are steadily moving to eastern and western markets. Livestock. A comparative statement of receipts of livestock and pur chases for local slaughter for the month of September is given below: RECEIPTS OF LIVESTOCK P o r t la n d .................... S a lt L a k e C i t y ____ S e a tt le ......................... S p o k a n e ....................... T a c o m a ......................... CATTLE 1920 1919 11,3 0 4 1 2,266 3 ,6 3 9 3,251 4 ,928 6,728 3,725 5,835 1,7 4 3 3,087 T o t a l ....................... 25 ,3 3 9 CALVESHOGS 1920 1919 1920 1,022 1,021 11,938 106 253 725 315 390 1 3,743 695 1,988 3,660 196 92 2,188 31,167 2 ,334 3 ,744 3 2,254 SH EEP 1919 1920 1919 10,537 32,135 2 9 ,9 4 3 3,070 3 8,938 3 ,098 3 ,9 5 2 8 ,743 14 ,3 9 1 3,155 23,3 6 2 12 ,4 6 1 1,796 3,9 7 4 3,5 2 7 22,510 107 ,1 5 2 63,4 2 0 h o rse s AND M ULES 1920 1919 555 271 233 101 ..................... 108 173 ..................... 896 545 PURCHASES FOR LOCAL SLAUGHTER CATTLE 1920 1919 P or tlan d .................................................... Sa lt L a k e Ci t y ...................................... S ea tt le ....................................................... S p o k a n e ..................................................... T a c o m a ....................................................... 4 ,250 1 ,443 4,756 2,812 1,7 4 3 4,441 1 ,189 6,215 3 ,904 3,087 T o t a l ..................................................... 1 5,004 18,836 CALVES 1920 1919 [ 8 ] HOGS 1920 1919 433 106 315 575 196 482 253 378 876 92 6 ,174 2 3 ,639 1 ,946 2 ,188 4 ,927 2 ,4 3 0 3,7 0 9 1 ,642 1,7 9 6 1,625 2,081 1 3 ,9 4 9 1 4 ,5 0 4 1920 SH EEP 1919 1 6 ,5 0 9 1 2,858 692 1 ,633 8,7 4 2 14,121 2,4 3 1 997 3 ,9 7 4 3 ,527 • 3 2 ,3 4 8 3 3,136 Livestock men have experienced an unsatisfactory year. Feed, range rent, and labor have been high but prices for cattle, sheep, and hogs have not risen correspondingly. As a result there has been a tendency to decrease the supply of stocker animals. Some movement in the opposite direction is now evident, with cheaper feed in prospect, but inability to secure financial assistance is limiting the purchase of stockers and feeders. Prices on light steers and young cows are low and offer a big inducement to the man who has the money to buy. The heavy receipts of sheep at the five principal markets of the district give some indication of the financial condition of the sheepmen. Inability to market their wool clip at satisfactory prices seems to be forcing heavy sales of sheep, in order to meet expenses, and 43,732 more sheep were shipped during September, 1920, than in September, 1919. W ide fluctuations in price have characterized the market for Septem ber, but the general trend was a slight decline. Steers at the various markets brought anywhere from $3.75 to $9.00 a hundredweight depend ing on quality and demand. Hogs registered a high mark of $20.00 a hundredweight but brought as low as $7.00 on one market when in poor condition. Sheep prices ranged from $10.50 a hundredweight for best lambs to $2.25 a hundredweight for ewes, with variations within each class according to quality. Dairy Products. Cold storage holdings of butter in the four principal markets of the district are much smaller than one year ago and with drawals during September were correspondingly lighter. Reports of increased butter production, due to the closing of some of the canned milk plants, and of heavy importations from New Zealand, have tended to weaken the market. A comparative statement of cold storage with drawals during September of this year and last year and total holdings on October first follow s: W ithdraw als W ithdraw als H oldings Sept., 1920 Sept., 1919 O ct. 1, 1920 Los ............. 104,346 lbs. ...................... 3,378 lbs. F r a n c isc o ............. 90,171 lbs. t t l e ......................... 278,308 lbs. A n g e le s P o r t la n d San S e a T o ta l ....................... 476,203 lbs. Holdings O ct. 1„ 1919 141,533 lbs. 107,478 lbs. 269,200 lbs. 284,817 lbs. 861,612 lbs. 484,398 lbs. 934,822 lbs. 852,811 lbs. 305,876 lbs. 987,084 lbs. 1,594,323 lbs. 1,548,331 lbs. 803,028 lbs. 3,133,643 lbs. 4,435,614 lbs. Condensed and Evaporated Milk. During the past two months the de mand for condensed and evaporated milk has fallen off. Export busi ness, which greatly stimulated production during the war, is at a stand still. This is partly due to the reluctance of foreign buyers to purchase at present rates of exchange, and partly due to increased production in Holland, Norway and Denmark. Increased freight rates from western [9] shipping points to eastern centers of consumption have cut down the domestic markets in which western manufacturers can compete with eastern condensaries. As a result large stocks were thrown on the local markets and on October first a price reduction of 50 cents a case to the jobber was announced. Comparative prices for the past year are as follows : October, 1 9 1 9 ............... $6.25 case* February, 1920 ............. 5.75 case April, 1920 ...................... $6.00 case October, 1920 ................. 5.50 case *C ase of 4 dozen tall cans. Jobbers and wholesalers are not buying heavily even at the reduced price. Storage holdings have not increased as greatly as might be ex pected, however, due to the action of the largest condensary in the Pacific Northwest, which reduced the output of its main plants and closed two of its smaller condensaries. Other manufacturers are re ported ready to take similar measures. The milk formerly used by the idle plants is being made into butter and cheese and these products are finding a ready market in the states of this district. Lumber. A heavy falling off in the amount of new business placed with mills in the district, except those producing California redwood, occurred during the week ending October 2nd. Demand originating in competitive eastern territory for other varieties of lumber was almost negligible, but during the previous week new orders increased slightly due principally to heavy purchases of ties by railroads, and also due to increased purchases for delivery otherwise than by rail. The strongest demand for Northwestern lumber at the present time comes from Cali fornia, particularly the southern part. The market is reported to remain generally dull and several mills are preparing to cease operations. It is claimed that recent decreases in prices of grain and other farm products have reduced the agricultural demand for lumber. Comparative figures of cut, shipments and orders for the reporting mills of the four associations operating in this district are tabulated b e lO W . West Coast Lumbermen’s Association 4 W eek s ending Sept. 25 Preceding Four W eek s A v era g e N o . M i l l s R e p o r t in g . 123 * C u t ....................................................... 286,440 126 300,866 » S h ip m e n t s ........................................ 233,220 * O rd ers ................................................202,008 261,055 242,233 Western Pine Manufacturers’ Association California W hite and Sugar Pine Manufacturers Association Pre4 W eek s ceding ending Four Sept. 25 W eek s Pre4 W eek s ceding ending Four Sept. 25 W e e k s 32 1 02,763 California Redwood Association Pre4 W e e k s ceding ending Four Sept. 25 W eek s 27 95,795 8 43 ,5 2 9 10 5 1,410 10 26 ,0 2 9 11 20,421 65,340 72,094 3 3,075 48,000 1 7,113 12,7 8 9 1 9,574 1 7,785 17,626 1 9,388 1 7,369 14,260 * (0 0 0 ) feet o m itte d . [10] Petroleum. A record production of petroleum occurred in California during September when the average daily output rose to 304,340 barrels. The nearest approach to this figure previously was in June, 1914, when the daily average was 302,400 barrels. The increase in September figures is chiefly due to new production in the Elk Hills. Shipments fell off 2.6 per cent as compared with August but still exceeded pro duction, so that stored stocks were further reduced. All industries in this district using fuel oil are threatened with a shortage of it during the winter. Growing industrial demands, the steadily increasing requirements of the railroads, and the recently added needs of our fleet on this coast are throwing a burden upon California production of petroleum too great to be met in full. There is no ration ing of either oil or gasoline in the district. Following are figures fur nished by the Standard Oil Company: SEPTEM BER —Daily average........ 304,340 bbls. S h i p m e n t s —Daily average........ 313,533 bbls. S t o r e d S t o c k s — End of month. .23,158,657 bbls. 55 N e w W e l l s O p e n e d ..................... With initial daily production. 21,775 bbls. 5 W e l l s A b a n d o n e d ........................ P r o d u c tio n AUGUST JULY 290,590 bbls. 321,955 bbls. 23,434,464 bbls. 56 20,550 bbls. 5 279,169 bbls. 310,271 bbls. 24,406,753 bbls. 51 21,330 bbls. 6 Car Shortage. The car situation in this district showed little improve ment during the past month. The Tehachapi tunnel cave-in in Southern California, which had necessitated re-routing freight cars— particularly refrigerators— for three weeks at the height of the canning and grapepicking seasons was repaired and opened for traffic on September 27th. This interruption helped to increase the shortage of refrigerator cars in California from 815 on September 9th, to 977 on September 30th. Although the past week has shown a decided improvement, the shortage of these cars is still causing embarrassment to shippers. W holesale and retail stores in this district report general improvement in the transportation situation although a few advise that shipments from the east are delayed from fifteen to thirty days. A comparative statement of car shortages in California, Washington, and Oregon on October 9th and September 9th follows: OPEN O ct. 9 Sept. 9 ....................... 65 .......................... 315 Southern P acific. . 1,638 Other Lines.......... 26 W a sh in g to n C a lifo r n ia O regon— O regon — T o ta l ............................. 2,044 131 572 1,861 174 2,738 [11] CLO SED O ct. 9 Sept. 9 32 55 2,423 1,105 1,565982 63513 4,083 2,655 R E F R IG E R A T O R O ct. 9 Sept. 9 4 3 800 815 ....................... ....................... 804 818 W holesale and Retail Trade Activity, Retail trade as reported by 31 representative department stores in this district, averages 14.5 per cent larger by value during September, 1920, than during the same month last year, as against an increase of 21.7 per cent in August, 1920, over the same month of last year. The increase in volume of sales during September of this year over those in August was .4 per cent as against an increase in August of 8.8 per cent for the previous month. Statement of increases and decreases in retail trade for 31 firms follow s: CONDITION OF RETAIL TRADE DURING SEPTEMBER, 1920 Percentage increase (or decrease) of net sales during September, 1920, over net sales during L os An geles 29.1 Percentage increase (or decrease) of net sales during September, 1920, over August, 1920........ -18.2 Percentage increase (or decrease) of net sales from July 1, 1920, to September 30, 1920, over net sales during same period last year............................... 37.9 Percentage increase (or decrease) of stocky at close of September, 1920, over stocks at close of 33.4 Percentage increase (or decrease) of stocks at close of September, 1920, over stocks at close 13.7 San Francisco Seattle D istrict 10.4 -4 .5 14.5 1.7 16.6 0.4 17.3 -4 .2 19.8 16.2 3.9 20.6 7.4 6.3 4.9 Reports from 129 wholesale firms show a general increase in volume of trade during September over the same month last year, except in the wholesale shoe and automobile tire business, which showed a decrease of 17.6 per cent and 23.5 per cent respectively. The increases in volume of business were most pronounced in stationery and grocery lines, amounting to 31.6 per cent and 30.9 per cent respectively. Three classes of business, dry goods, groceries and drugs, show a de crease in sales during September over sales during August, while only one class, that of automobile tires and rubber goods, shows a decrease in total sales during the first nine months of 1920 over sales for the same period last year. Collections during September show little change over last month, the majority of firms still reporting collections good. Reports are unani mous that the tendency of the trade is to buy cautiously and only for current consumption. An increasing number reported an even greater preference than has recently prevailed for staples as against fancy goods. Demand in general is reported weak, buyers tending to hold off in anticipation of further price reductions. This tendency is most notice [12] able among dealers in hardware, dry goods, groceries, and rubber goods, while furniture and stationery dealers notice it only to a limited extent. General improvement in transportation conditions is noted by nearly all firms, only a few reporting any delays in shipments during the past month. Prices are reported as steady during September by hardware dealers, while wholesale furniture and stationery firms report a slight increase in prices over last year. Reductions in prices are generally reported by dealers in shoes, dry goods and groceries. Statements of increases and decreases in wholesale trade of 129 firms for September, 1920, as compared with August, 1920, and September, 1919, and for the first nine months of 1920, as compared with the same period in 1919, follow : CONDITION OF WHOLESALE TRADE DURING SEPTEMBER, 1920 (la) Percentage of increase or decrease in net sales for September, 1920, over September, 1919 Los Angeles San Francisco Portland Seattle D istrict 23.0 35.7 12.2 22.5 Hardware .............................................. 29.9 Dry Goods...................................................... 3.5 31.0 11.4 14.3 Groceries ............................................... 35.9 50.6 26.1 ... 30.9 D ru gs.............................................................. 42.3 10.9 ... 26.5 S h o e s.............................................................. -19.9 -29.1 ... -17.6 Stationery.............................................. 30.8 35.8 12.9 45.2 31.6 Furniture .............................................. 4.6 18.1 33.4 27.6 19.9 Auto Tires..............................................-20.8 -14.9 ... -24.1 -23.5 (lb) Percentage of increase or decrease in net sales January 1 to September 30, 1920, over same period last year Los Angeles ..................... 50.9 San Francisco 45.7 37.8 30.7 25.6 9.2 44.9 60.9 7.8 Portland Seattle 32.1 29.4 24.6 22.0 48.1 Portland Seattle District 34.8 39.6 ..................... 30.6 27.0 30.1 -14.8 5.9 ..................... 47.8 36.8 24.8 42.5 ..................... 53.6 51.3 18.5 46.6 .....................-9.2 -11.8 -2.6 (lc) Percentage of increase or decrease in net sales for September, 1920, over August, 1920 Hardware ....................... Dry Goods....................... Groceries ........................ D ru gs............................... Shoes ............................... Stationery....................... Furniture ....................... Auto Tires....................... Los Angeles Hardware ....................... Dry Goods....................... Groceries ........................ D ru g s............................... Shoes ............................... Stationery....................... Furniture ....................... Auto Tires....................... ..................... 21.4 ..................... 31.7 ..................... 21.4 ..................... 28.5 San Francisco -2.0 -14.4 -1.6 5.1 -4.2 -6.1 28.9 15.2 45.3 14.3 -6.1 38.6 32.1 74.5 -9.5 -14.6 -9.1 21.3 . . [13] . D istrict 7.3 -7.7 -0.9 -5.3 7.0 13.3 26.4 Foreign Trade. Both imports and exports through Pacific Coast ports fell off in value in August, 1920, as compared with August, 1919, the former 10 per cent and the latter 25.7 per cent. The more rapid decline in exports caused their total value to fall below the total value of im ports for the month, which illustrates the tendency now apparent in the foreign trade returns of the country, namely, the reduction in our so-called “favorable balance” of trade. The volume of foreign trade (i. e., the value of exports and imports combined) is less both for the month of August and for the eight months period from January 1st to August 31st, 1920, than for the same periods last year. W hile this reflects the readjustment of trade routes men tioned in last month’s report, it is also doubtless an indication of the reduced activity of business in the Orient since the commercial depres sion which began in China last Spring following the decline in the price of silver, and the business crisis in Japan last April. IMPORTS (000 o m itte d ) % In % In M onth Ending crease ( + ) or Eight M onths Ending crease ( + ) or Au g. 31, ’ 20 A u g. 31, ’ 19 D ecrease(— ) A u g. 31, ’ 20 A u g. 31, ’ 19 D ecrease(— ) ............. 20,510 ................. 448 P o r t l a n d ..................... 525 W a s h in g to n (Seattle). 6,544 S a n D i e g o .................... 260 21,392 155 57 9,727 102 — 4.1 +189.0 +821.1 — 32.7 +154.9 164,999 6,339 6,731 69,407 656 San F r a n c is c o Los A n g e le s 152,311 1,793 1,381 89,330 389 +8.3 +253.5 +387.4 — 22.3 +68.6 T o t a l P a c ific C o a s t .. . 28,287 31,433 — 10.0 248,132 245,204 + 1.2 T o t a l U n ite d S ta te s. .519,000 307,000 +69.1 4,000,000 2,262,000 +76.8 6.2% 10.8% % o f P a c ific C o a st to T o t a l U n ite d S ta te s 5.4% 10.2% EXPORTS (000 om itte d ) % In % ln M onth Ending crease ( + ) or Eight M onths Ending crease ( + ) or A u g. 31, ’ 20 A ug. 31, ’ 19 D ecrease(— ) Aug. 31, ’ 20 A u g. 31, ’ 19 D ecrease(— ) ............. 13,619 ................. 432 P o r t l a n d ..................... 5,642 W a s h in g to n (Seattle). 7,410 S a n D i e g o .................... 116 San Los F r a n c is c o A n g e le s 20,685 1,155 5,484 9,331 27 — 34.3 — 62.6 +2.8 — 20.5 +329.6 158,148 12,168 36,337 88,782 357 160,103 5,407 31,039 147,315 260 — 1.2 +125.0 +17.0 — 42.1 +37.3 T o t a l P a c ific C o a s t .. . 27,219 36,682 — 25.7 295,792 344,124 — 14.0 T o t a l U n ite d S ta te s. .584,000 646,000 — 9.6 5,483,000 5,272,000 +4.0 5.6% .. % o f P a c ific C o a st to T o t a l U n ite d S ta te s 4.6% [14] 5.4% 6.5% Labor. W ith the exception of a strike for higher wages in the build ing trades of San Francisco, involving approximately 300 plasterers, painters and paper-hangers, which has been temporarily settled on the old basis of wages, pending arbitration of the demands, no strikes or labor disturbances are reported in this district. Unemployment has in creased slightly owing to the closing of some shipyards and lumber mills and there is a small surplus of labor in the principal cities of the district. Business Failures. Business failures increased during the month of September and were practically the same as in the month of July but still less than the highest mortality of the year, which was reached in June. The average failure during September was again largest in Utah, where it exceeded $26,000 in total liabilities. In Idaho the average ex ceeded $16,000, in Washington $15,000, in California $8,000, in Oregon $7,000, in Nevada $4,000, and in Arizona $500. R. G. Dun and Company’s comparative figures by states for the past three months follow : SEPTEM BER No. 3 C a l if o r n ia . . . . 45 10 I d a h o .................... 2 N e v a d a ................ 11 O r e g o n ............... 11 U tah .................... W a s h i n g t o n . . . 19 A r i z o n a ............. D is t r ic t . . . .101 Liabilities $ 1,500 401,032 163,929 8,602 87,258 290,261 291,978 $1,244,560 AUGUST N o. Liabilities 21 0 209,254 33,844 1,000 263,658 131,882 367,600 2 53 0 0 16 0 30 90 $1,007,238 101 0 41 5 1 16 6 $ JU LY N o. Liabilities $ 9,000 365,000 0 0 239,710 0 678,178 $1,291,888 Building Permits. Building activity during September exceeded that of August both in number and valuation of permits issued, and was over 50 per cent greater than in September, 1919. Reports from the 19 prin cipal cities of the district, summarized below, indicate that building is proceeding on a large scale in Southern California, but is less in the Pacific Northwest than it was last month or last year at this time. Sept ., 1920 No. * Value Los A n g e le s Sa n F r a n c is c o . . P ortland L ong Seattle T otal ................ Beach Oakland . . .. . . . ................... ................... D i s t r i c t .. 3,515 435 1,074 475 510 1,046 7,231 1,996 802 1,231 798 865 . 9,190+ 16,528 % Increase ( + ) or Decrease (— ) in Value During Aug. , 1920 Month N o. *Value Sept., 1919 No. *V alu e 6,970 1,517 1,022 969 672 1,072 + 3.7 +31.5 — 21.5 +27.0 +18.7 — 19.3 1,259 482 900 280 390 1,356 2,447 1,231 1,377 679 574 1,340 +195.5 +62.1 — 41.7 +81.3 +38.9 — 35.4 7,459 14,559 +13.4 5,847 10,691 +54.6 2,643 452 1,039 368 438 904 * (0 0 0 ) omitted. t P e r c e n t a g e in cre a s e in n u m b e r o v e r la st m o n th , 2 0 . 6 % ; o v e r S e p te m b e r , 1919, 5 5 .4 % . % In crease ( + ) or D e crease (— ) in Value During Year [15] B a n k Clearings. Clearings during September increased in all the Fed eral Reserve bank and branch cities as compared with last month, and total clearings of the district (19 cities reporting) were 12.5 per cent in excess of those of August, 1920, and 13.4 per cent greater than they were in September, 1919. Accelerated business activity is also reflected in the increase in debits to individual accounts in the 20 largest cities of the district, the total for September being $2,686,720,000 or 19.7 per cent larger than the total of $2,158,893,000 in August, 1920, and 28.8 per cent larger than in Septem ber, 1919. The increase is distributed evenly throughout the different sections of the district. BANK CLEARINGS September, 1920 A ugust, 1920 September, 1919 .................$712,000,000 $ 645,480,000 Los A n g e l e s ................... 346,945,000 309,955,000 ........................... 175,874,000 156,990,000 S e a ttle P o r t l a n d ........................ 180,364,000 150,498,000 S a l t L a k e C i t y ............. 69,379,000 61,021,000 49,601,000 S p o k a n e .......................... 57,662,000 San $ 669,392,000 208,332,000 202,235,000 171,405,000 72,720,000 62,019,000 F r a n c is c o T o t a l ....................... $1,542,224,000 $1,373,545,000 $1,386,103,000 T o ta l D is tr ic t ........$1,779,545,000 $1,580,815,000 $1,568,585,000 Interest and D iscount Rates. An easing of 1 per cent in the rate charged in Seattle on loans secured by United States Government securi ties, and of a like amount in Los Angeles in the rate on prime commer cial paper purchased in the open market, together with an increase of x/2 per cent in the rate charged for inter-bank loans in Portland, are the only changes in the general level of interest rates asked by member banks throughout the district. Customary rates charged by banks in Federal Reserve Bank and branch cities for the month ending Septem ber 10th are quoted below: c ,, * Secured by Prime Commercial Paper Custom ers Open M arket San Los F r a n c i s c o ......................... ...... 6 V2 S e a ttle P o r tla n S a lt .......................7 ......................... ....7 d ...........................7 A n g e le s Lake Spokane C i t y .......................... 8 ....................... ....7% Interbank Loans Collateral Loans L . L . Bonds W ith U .S . Certificates of Indebtedness 8 7 8 8 7 7 8 7 6 % 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 None 7 7 8 6 7 7 7 Population. Preliminary reports of the 1920 census show that popu lation in this district increased from 5,177,478 in 1910 to 6,858,642 in 1920, an increase of 32.4 per cent, while the percentage of increase for the con [16] tinental United States during the same period was 14.9 per cent. The discrepancy between these percentages shows the continued westward drift of population. Four states in the district, California, Oregon, Utah, and Idaho, increased in ranks, while all states in the district in creased in population except Nevada, which decreased 5.4 per cent during the decade. The greatest percentage increases were in Arizona and California, and amounted to 63.3 per cent and 44.1 per cent respec tively. The population of this district in 1920 was 6.5 per cent of that of the entire United States, as against 5.6 per cent in 1910. State— C a l if o r n ia ....................................... W a s h in g t o n O regon ................................ ................................................ U tah ....................................................... Id ah o ..................................................... A r iz o n a N evada ............................................... .................................................. T otal T otal % of Rank 1910 Population 1920 8 30 34 40 42 45 48 12 30 35 41 44 45 48 3,426,536 1,356,316 783,285 449,446 431,826 333,826 77,407 2,377,549 1,141,990 672,765 373,351 325,594 204,354 81,875 +44.1 +18.6 +16.5 +20.3 +32.6 +63.3 — 5.4 6,858,642 5,177,478 +32.4 105,683,108 91,972,266 +14.9 6.5 5.6 D i s t r i c t ................ U n it e d States D is t r ic t States ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ Rank 1920 T otal T otal to Population % Increase ( + ) 1910 Decrease (— ) U n it e d ....................... Federal Reserve Bank. The usual autumn demand of member banks for credit accommodation is reflected in this bank’s statement of condi tion for October 8 (see last page of this report), which shows that hold ings of bills discounted for member banks increased $17,224,000 during the past four weeks as against an increase of approximately $6,000,000 in the previous month. At the same time, holdings of bills bought in the open market were reduced $6,309,000, making a net increase of $10,915,000 in total bills on hand. Cash reserves fell off $2,316,000 (of which $2,160,000 represented gold outflow), reserve notes in circulation increased $2,369,000, while deposits to the credit of the Government and of member banks increased $4,027,000 and $1,950,000 respectively. [17] C O M P A R A T IV E S T A T E M E N T O F P R IN C IP A L R E S O U R C E A N D L IA B IL IT Y IT E M S O F M E M B E R B A N K S IN R E S E R V E C IT IE S O F T W E L F T H F E D E R A L R E S E R V E D IS T R IC T Reporting Member Banks...................................68 f-------------------------(000.00 om itted)- July 30, 1920 A u g. 27, 1920 O ct. 8, 1920 U. S. Securities........................................................$ 135,472 $ 137,078 $ 135,018 34,902 144,634 991,124 32,380 149,428 968,878 29,833 146,291 918,040 Total Loans and Investments................... $1,306,132 $1,287,764 $1,229,182 Loans and Investments excluding rediscounts with Federal Reserve Bank: Secured by Government War Obligations. . . Secured by Stocks and Bonds....................... All Others......................................................... Reserve Balance with Federal Reserve Bank. .. .$84,567 $ 79,862 $ 80,153 Gash in Vault.......................................................... 27,933 27,464 28,134 Net Demand Deposits............................................ 632,024 632,417 632,245 Time Deposits.......................................... .............. 519,826 514,551 519,241 Government Deposits.............................................. 6,603 6,546 9,562 Bills Payable with Federal Reserve Bank: Secured by U. S. War Obligations............... All Others.......................................................... 26,064 85 29,315 408 32,206 210 Bills Rediscounted with Federal Reserve Bank: Secured by U. S. War Obligations............... All Others.......................................................... 2,139 63,433 2,462 63,913 3,288 84,370 [18] C O M P A R A T IV E S T A T E M E N T O F C O N D IT IO N O F F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F S A N F R A N C IS C O RESOURCES: Oct. 8, 1920 Gold and Gold Certificates..................... $ 13,475,000 Gold Settlement Fund— F. R. Board. . . . 49,175,000 Gold with Foreign Agencies................... 4,118,000 Total Gold Held by Bank........... $ 66,768,000 $ 11,606,000 49,704,000 5,127,000 $ 66,437,000 $ 11,964,000 41,571,000 5,009,000 $ 58,544,000 Gold with Federal Reserve Agent........ 81,242,000 Gold Redemption Fund.......................... 11,627,000 Total Gold Reserves..................... $159,637,000 85,279,000 10,081,000 $161,797,000 104,450,000 1,143,000 $164,137,000 Legal Tender Notes, Silver, etc............. 546,000 Total Reserves.............................. $160,183,000 702,000 $162,499,000 193,000 $164,330,000 Bills Discounted: Secured by Govt. War Obligations. . . $ 55,242,000 All Other.............................................. 121,026,000 Bills Bought in Open Market................. . 55,306,000 Total Bills on Hand..................... $231,574,000 $ 51,457,000 107,587,000 61,615,000 $220,659,000 $ 54,045,000 18,544,000 80,079,000 $152,668,000 2,632,000 U. S. Government Bonds......................... 0 U. S. Victory Notes................................ 11,207,000 U. S. Certificates of Indebtedness......... 0 All Other Earning Assets....................... Total Earning Assets................... $245,413,000 2,632,000 0 11,288,000 0 $234,579,000 2,632,000 0 8,539,000 0 $163,839,000 231,000 Bank Premises.......................................... Uncollected Items and Other Deduc tions from Gross Deposits................. 43,047,000 5% Redemption Fund Against F. R. 665,000 Notes .................................................... 302,000 All Other Resources................................. T otal Resources......................... $449,841,000 231,000 400,000 37,999,000 40,107,000 665,000 463,000 $436,436,000 525,000 918,000 $370,119,000 $ $ LIABILITIES: Capital Paid in ........................................ $ 6,880,000 Surplus .................................................... 11,662,000 4,941,000 Government Deposits.............................. Due to Members— Reserve Account. . . . 118,926,000 Deferred Availability Items................... 34,846,000 Other Deposits, Including F o r e ig n 2,478,000 Government Credits........................... Total Gross Deposits................... $161,191,000 F. R. Notes in Actual Circulation.......... 254,380,000 F. R. Bank Notes in Circulation— Net 10,831,000 L iability............................................... 4,897,000 All Other Liabilities................................. T otal Liabilities......................... $449,841,000 Memo : Contingent Liability on Bills Pur chased for Foreign Correspondents. . . . [19] 736,000 O ct. 3, 1919 Sept. 10, 1920 6,830,000 11,662,000 5,059,000 4,578,000 914,000 116,976,000 29,341,000 5,450,000 101,011,000 19,899,000 3,456,000 $150,687,000 7,465,000 $133,825,000 252,011,000 215,429,000 11,359,000 3,887,000 $436,436,000 8,850,000 2,378,000 $370,119,000 736,000 0
@FedFRASER