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MONTHLY REVIEW
OF
B U S IN E S S
C O N D IT IO N S
ISAAC B. N EW TO N , Chairman of the Board and Federal Reserve Agent
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Vol. X I I I
San Francisco, California, May 20,1929
No. 5
S U M M A R Y O F N A T IO N A L C O N D IT IO N S
Prepared by the Federal Reserve Board
Industrial activity continued at a high level
in April, and the volume of factory employment
and payrolls increased further between the mid
dle of April and the middle of May. Loans and
investments of member banks in leading cities
continued to decline and at the end of the
period were at approximately the same level
as a year ago.
Production. Industrial activity increased in
April to the highest level on record. The iron
and steel and automobile industries continued
exceptionally active during April. A ctivity in
copper refining, lumber, cement, silk and w ool
textiles, and the meat packing industry in
creased, and production of cotton textiles
showed a less than seasonal reduction. Factory
employment and payrolls increased, contrary to
the seasonal trend.
Output of mines was also larger in April.
Copper and anthracite coal production in
creased and the seasonal decline in output of
bituminous coal was smaller than usual. Petro
leum production declined slightly.
Preliminary reports for the first half of May
indicate a continued high rate of operation in
the iron and steel industry. Output of lumber
and bituminous coal was somewhat larger dur
ing the first part of May than at the end of April.
Building contracts awarded during the month
of April increased sharply and for the first time
in five months approximated the total for the
corresponding month in the preceding year.
The increase was not continued in the first part
Index number of production of manufactures and minerals combined,
adjusted for seasonal variations (1923-1925 average = 100).
Latest figure, April, 121.
of May, however, when awards averaged 20
per cent below the same period in May, 1928.
During April most classes of building showed
seasonal increases over March, the largest being
in contracts for residential building and public
works and utilities.
Distribution. Shipments of commodities by
rail increased during April and were the largest
for that month in any recent year. The increase
from March reflected larger loadings of miscel
laneous freight, lumber, livestock, and ore.
During the first half of May shipments of freight
continued to increase.
Sales at wholesale declined seasonally in
April, except in the case of grocery and hard
ware firms. Department store sales were also
smaller in April than in March, but continued
above the level of a year ago. In comparison
with April, 1928, all lines of trade reporting to
the Federal Reserve System showed increases.
Prices. W holesale com m odity prices aver
aged slightly lower in April than in March, ac
cording to the index of the United States Bu
reau of Labor Statistics, reflecting primarily
declines in prices of farm products and their
manufactures. Prices of mineral and forest
products and their manufactures, on the aver
age, showed little change. There were increases
in iron and steel prices, and sharp declines in
copper, lead and tin. Seasonal declines occurred
in prices of coal and coke, while gasoline prices
advanced. Prices of grain, especially wheat,
moved downward most sharply and prices of
Index of United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (1926» 100, base
adopted by Bureau). Latest figure, April, 96.8.
34
M O N T H L Y REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS
w ool and cotton continued to decline. Livestock
and meat prices continued the upward m ove
ment of the previous month but at a slower
rate. Hides averaged slightly higher in price,
and leather somewhat lower than in the preced
ing month. A m ong imported raw materials,
rubber, sugar, and coffee showed marked price
M a y , 1929
and agricultural purposes, remained unchanged
at a relatively high level.
There was a further reduction in the average
volume of reserve bank credit outstanding be
tween the weeks ending April 24 and May 22,
owing largely to additions to the country’s
monetary stock of gold. The decline was in
M IL L IO N S O f
DOLLARS
'1r
1
I
T O T A L 1R E S E R V E
B A N K C R E D IT
1500
^------r *
1000
\~ j
kx
ACCEPTA
1926
1927
1928
1925
1929
M O N EY RATES
M on th ly rates in the open m arket in N e w Y o r k : com m ercial paper rate
on 4- to 6-m onth paper and acceptance rate on 90-day ban kers’ a c c e p t
ances. Latest figures are averages o f first 24 days in M a y .
recessions. Early in M ay cattle, hides, and
wheat prices declined sharply and the price of
rubber increased.
Bank Credit. During the four weeks ending
May 15 loans and investments of member banks
in leading cities showed a decrease of nearly 200
million dollars, largely in loans on securities.
There was also some further decline in invest
ments. A ll other loans, chiefly for commercial
-----
Di:S C O U N T S FOR
MC M BE R BAN IKS
500
1925
V
*
1926
1927
r
SE C U R I T E S
1928
1929
R E SE R V E B A N K C R E D IT
M on th ly averages o f daily figures fo r 12 Federal reserve ban ks.
Latest figures are averages o f first 22 days
in M a y .
discounts for member banks, holdings of ac
ceptances and United States securities showing
practically no change. Open market rates for
commercial paper remained unchanged as did
rates on prime bankers’ acceptances, except for
a temporary decline at the end of April and the
first week in May. In the first three weeks of
May rates on collateral loans averaged consid
erably higher than in April.
T W E L F T H F E D E R A L R E S E R V E D IS T R IC T C O N D IT IO N S
Continued aggressive expansion of industry
and moderate activity in trade marked the
month of April and the early weeks of May in
the Tw elfth Federal Reserve District. Demand
for credit increased and, by mid-May, member
bank loans were higher than ever before. The
expansion in volume of credit in use was largely
in loans for commercial purposes, although
loans on securities advanced to near the peak
levels of last March. The District’s supply of
funds increased substantially during the weeks
preceding M ay 15, however, and despite the
growth of member bank loans demand for credit
at the Reserve Bank was reduced to the lowest
levels of the current year.
Industry, in the aggregate, continued the
rapid growth which has characterized the pro
ductive activities of the District since the middle
of 1928. The present high level of activity
chiefly reflects heavy production schedules in
the lumber, iron and steel, copper, and petroleum
industries. Output of cement and of food prod
ucts was smaller last month than a year ago.
Trade expanded by less than the usual sea
sonal amount during April, 1929, (partly as a
result of the early date of Easter Sunday this
year) but was more active than in April, 1928.
The increase, as compared with a year ago, was
the result of heavier shipments of commodities
both by rail and by water, increased automobile
sales, and more active trade at wholesale. Sales
at retail approximated those of last year.
Agriculture
The outlook for the agricultural year in the
Twelfth Federal Reserve District reflects the
unfavorable developments of the past few
months, the chief of which have been the dam
aging frosts of March and April, the lack of
seasonal rainfall during much of the winter and
spring, and recent adverse price developments
affecting agricultural commodities.
W IN T E R W H E A T
F o re ca st
M a y 1,1929
...........
C a lifo rn ia
................... ...........
...........
____
...........
(bushels)
1,044,000
10,472,000
11,069,000
94,000
16,638,000
U tah
.............................
W a s h in g t o n ..............
U n ite d S t a t e s ............ ........... 595,335,000
H arvest
1928
(bushels)
1,269,000
16,380,000
10,488,000
104,000
20,088,000
3,726,000
35,600,000
87,655,000
578,964,000
A cre a g e
A bandoned
1929*
2.0
20.0
3.0
1.5
4.0
2.5
15.0
11.4
6.4
* A s a p e r ce n t o f a cre a g e s o w n in th e fa ll o f 1928.
S o u r c e : U n ite d S tates D e p a r tm e n t o f A g r ic u ltu r e .
The forthcoming winter wheat crop in the
District was estimated by the United States
Department of Agriculture on May 1 to be 26
per cent smaller than the crop harvested in 1928.
M a y , 1929
The winter wheat crop in the United States as a
whole is estimated to be three per cent larger
than that harvested last year. Visible supplies
of wheat in this country and throughout the
world are large and prices of wheat futures at
Chicago have recently been lower than at any
time since May, 1924.
Production forecasts of spring wheat, oats,
and barley are not yet available. On May 1 the
condition of oats in California was reported by
the State Agricultural Statistician to be 72 per
cent of normal and the condition of barley was
estimated to be 68 per cent of normal. One year
ago the condition of oats in that state was 93
per cent, and of barley 90 per cent, of normal.
The hay crop raised on farms of the District
is reported to be in poorer condition than one
year ago, and below the ten-year (1919-1928)
average condition for the month of April. The
unusually heavy demand for feed for livestock
during the past winter is reflected in present
reduced stocks of hay on the District’s farms.
On May 1, 1929, these stocks amounted to
587,000 tons or 4 per cent of the 1928 harvest,
whereas on May 1, 1928, the hay remaining on
the District’s farms amounted to 1,256,000 tons
or 8 per cent of the 1927 harvest.
Early reports of frost damage to deciduous
fruits and nuts in California are at least partially
confirmed by the May first estimates of crop
condition. Condition figures of various fruit
and nut crops in California are shown in the
following tab le:
D E C I D U O U S F R U I T S A N D N U T S - C a l if o r n i a
C o n d itio n
(Per cent of normal)
M a y 1,1929 M a y 1,1928
30
74
A lm o n d s ................................................
A p r ic o t s ................................................
57
60
C h erries ................................................
52
60
P e a ch e s ..................................................
42
87
36
87
C lin g s to n e ......................................
F r e e s t o n e .........................................
55
86
P e a rs .......................................................
64
86
P lu m s .....................................................
50
70
P ru n e s ....................................................
50
70
S o u r c e : C a lifo rn ia C ro p R e p o r t in g S e r v ic e .
In the Pacific Northwest the deciduous fruit
crops are in relatively better condition than in
California.
The 1929 Valencia orange crop in California,
which is now estimated to be 19,646,000 boxes,
is larger than any previously harvested crop of
this variety. In 1928 a small crop of 9,300,000
boxes was harvested. The estimate of the 1929
lemon crop (4,350,000 boxes) which appeared
in the March Review has been revised upward
and the yield is now estimated at 4,524,000
boxes. During the 1928 crop year, 4,520,000
boxes of lemons were harvested.
Livestock of the District are in relatively
good condition despite some shortage of range
forage. Range conditions declined during April,
which is contrary to the usual seasonal ten
dency, and on May 1 the ranges of the District
were reported to be in poorer condition than on
that date in any of the past five years.
35
FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT SAN FRANCISCO
Stockraisers have been favored by generally
satisfactory markets for their products during
recent weeks, although hide and w ool prices
have been below the levels of one year ago. The
number of cattle shipped to eight principal mar
kets in the District during April, 1929, was 6.8
per cent smaller than in April, 1928, continuing
a tendency toward a reduction in shipments
which has persisted since January, 1929. Esti
mates of the early spring lamb crop in the D is
trict were further reduced during April, when
range flocks suffered losses as a result of severe
weather conditions. It is now estimated that
the number of lambs raised in the District this
spring will approximate that of a year ago.
Shipments of California spring lambs to eastern
markets have been heavier than was expected
during April due to earlier deterioration of
ranges, and the number of live and dressed
lambs shipped during the present season to
May 11 was larger than in any corresponding
period on record.
C A L I F O R N I A S P R I N G L A M B S — Eastern Shipments
,--------- 1929-----------*
,------— 1928----------- >
L iv e
D ressed
L ive
D ressed
M a r c h .......................................
4,412
12,780
10,700
13,681
A p r il ......................................... 136,340
22,708
46,730
18,215
M a y * ......................................... 193,025
13,900
178,282
13,083
T o ta l
.........................................
333,777
49,388
235,712
* T h r o u g h M a y 11.
S o u r c e : M a r k e t N e w s S e r v ic e — U nited^ S tates
A g r ic u ltu r e , San F r a n c is c o , C a lifo rn ia .
44,979
D e p a rtm e n t
of
Sales of the 1929 wool clip were small in
volume during April, except in California where
it is estimated that one-half of the clip has now
been sold outright or shipped to market for
consignment sale. Sales have all been at lower
prices than a year ago.
Industry
Expansion in industrial activity which has
been a characteristic feature of the business
situation since the middle of 1928 continued
during April, 1929, although at a reduced rate
as compared with immediately preceding
months. Output of the District’s mines and fac
tories was substantially larger than in April of
last year. The high rate of industrial activity
during recent weeks has reflected maintenance
of heavy production schedules at lumber mills,
iron and steel plants, copper mines, and petro
leum wells and refineries. Output of cement
plants, flour mills and meat packing establish
ments was smaller than a year ago. Moderate
increases in producers’ stocks of copper, petro
leum, refined oils and cement were reported
during April, while mill stocks of lumber and of
flour were reduced. Shipments of industrial
commodities increased during the month, but
by less than the usual seasonal amount. Indus
trial car loadings of all classes of commodities,
other than grain and grain products, were sub
stantially larger than in April, 1928. The num
ber of unemployed declined seasonally during
April and in the aggregate was reported to be
36
M O N T H L Y REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS
smaller than last year. Building and construc
tion operations continued active.
IN D EX
N UM BERS
IN D U ST R IA L C AR L O A D IN G S—T W E L F T H D ISTRICT
Index adjusted for seasonal variation; 1923-1925 daily average =*100.
Latest figure, April 117.
Production of petroleum increased early in
April and reached a daily average of slightly
more than 800,000 barrels during the third week
of the month. During the succeeding week a
voluntary reduction of output was effected by
the m ajor oil companies in the state and daily
average output for the month was slightly be
low that for March, 1929, though still well above
production during April, 1928. The shuttingin of proven wells has been accompanied by a
decline in drilling operations in unproven terri
tory, but some new wells were completed during
the month and the proven area of the deep zone
field at Santa Fe Springs has been extended.
Production of copper increased slightly dur
ing April, 1929, and continued at levels well
above those of April, 1928. Shipments of the
metal are reported to have decreased during the
month and stocks increased from the rela
tively low levels of March. A fter a period
of rapid fluctuation, copper prices have been
steady during the past month. On May 16 the
metal sold for 18 cents per pound delivered at
Connecticut Valley points, the price quoted a
month ago. In accordance with existing wage
agreements, which adjust miners’ wages to the
selling price of copper, wages at copper mines of
the District were reduced five per cent on May 1.
(A) Industry—
(1923-1925 daily average «= 100)
Apr.
Manufactures :
-1 9 2 9 Mar. Feb.
124
83
94
172
116
74
110
103
107
148
115
77
106
119
135
96
97
121
136
99
88
92
103
100
89
117
79
119
69
93
74
110
75
Minerals:
C o p p e r (U n ite d S t a t e s )$ .......... ............
L e a d (U n it e d S ta te s ) $ ...............
S ilv e r (U n it e d S t a t e s ) $ ............... ............
1928
Apr.
118
80
113
180
118
73
............ 105
S la u g h te r o f L ivestock^ } ............ ............
85
L u m b e r ................................................ ............ 116*
R e fin e d M in e ra l O ils t ............... ............ 189
C e m e n t o ................................................
W o o l C o n s u m p tio n ......................
141
General :
C a r lo a d in g s — I n d u s tr ia l ............ ............
V a lu e o f B u ild in g P e r m i t s .
V a lu e o f E n g in e e r in g C o n tr a c ts
A w arded §
T o t a l ............................................
E x c lu d in g B u ild in g s .......... ............
203
187
268
175
228
145
117
* P r e lim in a r y . f N o t a d ju s te d fo r se a s o n a l v a r ia tio n . {P r e p a r e d
b y F e d e ra l R e s e r v e B o a r d . I ln d e x e s are fo r th re e m o n th s
ending on the month indicated.
A larger than seasonal increase in lumber
production was reported during April and out
put of the District’s mills was at substantially
higher levels than a year ago. Shipments and
new orders received also were large in volume,
and exceeded production, with a consequent
reduction in unsold mill stocks. Lumber prices
at the mills held firm during the month.
Building was active during April and al
though the total value of permits issued in the
District was somewhat less than in March, 1929,
it was greater than in April, 1928. Increased
activity as compared with a year ago was evi
dent in all parts of the District.
Trade
During April, the volume of trade transacted
in the Twelfth Federal Reserve District was
relatively large. W hen allowance is made for
usual seasonal changes, slight declines from
March were general except in sales of new auto
mobiles and in merchandise sales at wholesale,
which increased. Compared with last year, all
lines of activity except trade at retail showed
substantial gains and, when the data are ad
justed for the occurrence of Easter Sunday in
April of 1928 and in March of 1929, retail sales
also show a slight increase.
Total sales at retail of reporting department,
apparel and furniture stores were slightly
smaller during April, 1929, than during April,
1928. W hen reduced to a daily average basis,
sales of these stores were about five per
cent smaller than last year. It is necessary,
however, to consider March and April together
in estimating the comparative volume of de
partment store sales in 1929 and 1928, since
the early date of Easter this year shifted a large
volume of sales from the April to the March
record. For the two months together, the re
ported value of sales at retail during 1929 was
one per cent larger than the value of sales
(B ) Employment—
t-------- California--------
Industries
Indexes of daily average production, adjusted for seasonal variation
^Twenty cities.
^Revised.
M a y , 1929
No. of
No. r~ Employees No.
of
of
Apr.,
Apr.,
Firms 1929
1928 Firms
736 164,025 149,027 143
(10.1)
S to n e , C la y and
42
6,023
G lass P r o d u c t s .
( — 7 .3 )
L u m b e r and W o o d
M a n u fa c tu r e s . . 115 21,720
( — 6 .7 )
2,454
18
( 2 .5 )
C lo th in g , M illin e ry
8,482
a n d L a u n d e r in g .
61
( 3 .5 )
F o o d s , B e v e ra g e s
an d T o b a c c o . . . 159 36,240
( 8 .2 )
W a t e r , L ig h t and
3,612
P o w e r .................
4
( — 5 .0 )
324 83,303
(2 0 .1 )
M is c e lla n e o u s
13
2,191
( 8 .9 )
6,495
23,283
2,395
8,197
33,504
-Oregon—
No. of
* Employees Apr.,
Apr.,
1929
1928
25,777
24,050
(7.2)
182
( — 2 4 .5 )
52
15,982
(8 .2 )
2,250
11
(1 7 .7 )
403
7*
( — 3 .1 )
1,407
38
(4 .8 )
5
241
14,775
1,911
416
1,342
3,802
69,339
2,012
30
5,553
( 3 .5 )
5,365
* L a u n d e r in g o n ly , f ln c l u d e s th e f o ll o w i n g in d u s t r ie s : m e t a ls ;
m a c h in e r y an d c o n v e y a n c e s ; le a th e r an d r u b b e r g o o d s ;
ch e m ic a ls , o ils a n d p a i n t s ; p r in tin g a n d p a p e r g o o d s .
F ig u r e s in pa re n th e se s in d ica te p e r c e n t a g e ch a n g e s fr o m A p r il,
1928.
M a y , 1929
FEDERAL RESERVE AG EN T AT SAN FRANCISCO
during the same period in 1928. Sales of retail
grocery chains in the Twelfth District contin
ued their characteristically rapid expansion
during April, 1929, and were 16 per cent larger
in value during that month than in April, 1928.
37
Sales of new automobiles increased during the
month to the largest totals on record, sales of
both passenger and commercial vehicles con
tributing to the increase. The gain in sales of
INDEX
NUM BERS
R E T A I L T R A D E — T w elfth D istrict
D e p a r tm e n t S t o r e s ! . .
A p p a r e l S t o r e s ............
F u rn itu r e S tores
A l l _____
S to r e s ......................
,---------N E T S A L E S * --------J a n .1 to
A p r. 30,1929
A p r., 1929
com pared with
com pared
J a n .1 to
with
A p r., 1928
A p r. 30,1928
— 1.7 ( 6 8 )
— 1.6 ( 31)
4.2 ( 31)
8.2 ( 4 7 )
0.5 ( 4 7 )
2.1 (1 4 6 )
— 0.6 (1 4 6 )
2.2 ( 68)
STO C K *
A p r., 1929
com pared
with
A p r., 1928
- 3 . 3 ( 52)
3.5 ( 18)
2.9 ( 33)
- 2 . 0 (1 0 3 )
-).
* P e r c e n t a g e in c re a s e o r d e c r e a s e ( — ) . F ig u r e s in pare n th e se s
in d ica te n u m b e r o f sto re s r e p o r tin g , f l n c l u d e s d r y g o o d s
sto r e s.
The downward trend of sales at wholesale
noted during recent months was checked dur
ing April. From March to April there is
usually a seasonal decline of about 3 per cent
in wholesale sales, but this year April sales
increased approximately one per cent. Total
sales in ten lines of trade were nearly ten per
cent larger than a year ago, substantial in
creases being shown by seven of these lines. In
creases were reported in all regions of the
District. Smaller aggregate sales in April, 1929,
than in April, 1928, were reported only by shoe
and paper and stationery dealers.
Railway freight carloadings expanded by
slightly less than the usual seasonal amount
during April, 1929, but were substantially larger
than in April a year ago, the increase being
general in all freight classifications except load
ings of grain.
(C) Bank Debits*—
A r iz o n a
P h o e n ix
A p ril,
1929
..........$
41,133
C a lifo rn ia
13,031
B a k ersfield . . .
B e r k e le y . . . .
20,148
F r e s n o ............
29,843
L o n g B e a c h ..
63,764
L o s A n g e le s . . 1,205,373
231,081
O a k la n d ..........
40,572
P a sa d e n a . . . .
S a c r a m e n to . .
47,.037
11,422
S an B e r n a rd in o
S a n D ie g o . . .
64,776
S an F r a n c is c o . 1,245,802
27,224
San J o s e . . . .
16,792
S a n ta B a rb a ra
26,239
S to ck to n
....
Id a h o
15,346
B o is e ...............
N evada
R e n o .................
14,651
O re g o n
7,690
E u g e n e ............
P o r tla n d
....
1 78 ,394 t
U ta h
16,968
O g d e n ..............
S a lt L a k e C ity
87,494
W a s h in g t o n
11,134
B ellin g h a m . .
E v e re tt ............
15,334
754
R it z v ille
....
265,140
S ea ttle ............
60,138
S p o k a n e ..........
49,177
T a c o m a ..........
14,422
Y a k im a ..........
T o ta l.
A p ril,
1928
$
36,669
13,616
20,244
33,876
53,760
1,093,193
282,006
45,288
47,941
10,333
64,333
1,507,956
26,595
13,524
26,090
t— F irst F o u r M on th s — \
1929
$
178,157
59,307
85,864
125,649
266,181
5,006,406
970,944
182,283
193,635
46,308
270,174
5,591,156
111,964
68,049
107,445
1928
$
138,664
59,517
87,194
132,672
214,096
4,212,170
1,005,699
173,288
191,373
41,100
252,471
5,995,693
108,169
55,407
115,322
12,740
58,452
53,971
8,400
46,651
34,744
7,831
162,473
28,784
737,130$
27,046
626,957
15,091
71,442
71,853
318,997
68,043
292,752
10,123
13,092
957
254,782
57,927
45,767
12,326
41,281
54,801
3,410
1,059,861
237,483
197,264
54,027
39,183
49,814
3,703
951,744
222,235
179,013
50,423
.$ 3 ,8 2 0 ,8 7 9 t $3,948,375
$16,173,516$ $15,382,463
* I n th o u s a n d s o f d olla rs, f ln c l u d e s $16,150 ,00 0 at fo u r b a n k s n o t
r e p o r t in g p r io r t o w eek e n d e d M a y 2, 1928. ^ In clu d e s $65,828 ,000 at fo u r ba n k s n o t r e p o r t in g p r io r to w e e k e n ded
M a y 2, 1928.
►
-
9 lE TA IL
>
S»A L E S
w
A
r A l v\
'Y
. . . . .
\
W H ,O L E S A L E
¡/
/
“1J
a
#>%S A L E S
*
f\
w
)
------ .■■*
V
V" ’
V
I '
V
\
- ..-
-----
___ ~ w
R E T A IL A N D W H O L E S A L E T R A D E — T W E L F T H D IS T R IC T
In dexes adjusted fo r seasonal variation. 1923-1925 average=100. D aily
average figures o f departm ent store sales. M on th ly figures o f
sales at w holesale.
new passenger automobiles, although slight,
acquires significance when compared with a
normal March to April decline in sales of about
3 per cent. The gain in sales of new commercial
cars was slightly less than the usual seasonal
movement.
W aterborne intercoastal trade declined dur
ing April as compared with March but was
larger than in April, 1928. There was a slight
increase as compared with last month in the
movement of cargo through the Panama Canal
from Atlantic Coast to Pacific Coast ports,
and this Bank’s seasonally adjusted index
moved upward for the first time since last D e
cember. Cargo movement from the Pacific to
the Atlantic Coast continued the decline noted
since January, as petroleum shipments reached
the lowest figure of the current year. Lumber
(D) Distribution and Trade—
,------------- 1929-------------.
A p r.
M ar.
Feb.
1928
A p r.
F o r e ig n T r a d e 0
'--------- In d e x N um bers*---------,
149
147
122
T o t a l f ...................................................................
I m p o r t s f ............................................................
137
134
115
E x p o r ts ..............................................................
156
154
126
In te r co a s ta l T r a d e 0
T o ta l ............................................................
92
98
98
85
W e s t b o u n d ................................................ 127
125
133
106
E a s tb o u n d ................................................
80
87
87
78
C a rlo a d in g s
T o ta l* ......................................................... 116
117
108
110
M e rch a n d is e and M is c e lla n e o u s * . 118
122
116
114
W h o le s a le T ra d e
Sales§ .......................................................... 105
101
103
97
R eta il T ra d e
A u to m o b ile Sales$
T o ta l ....................................................... 131
127
132
87
P a ss e n g e r C a r s .................................. 129
125
132
87
C o m m e rcia l V e h ic le s ................... 145
149
131
86
C h ain S to re s
G r o c e r y S ales .................................... 258
254
249
223
D e p a r tm e n t S to r e
S a le s ? .................................................... 115
125
121
123
S to c k s !! .................................................. 101
105
101
104
,-----------A ctual F ig u re s----------- \
S t o c k Turnover|| .............................
.24
.26
.23
.24
C o lle c t io n s #
R e g u la r ..............................................
45.9
46.40 44.10 44.2
______ I n s t a l l m e n t ......................................
15.9
15.3
15.20
15.6
* A d ju s t e d f o r se a s o n a l v a r ia tio n s , 1923-1925 a v e r a g e = :1 0 0 . f E x c lu d in g ra w silk . $ D a ily a v e r a g e . § M o n th ly to ta ls o f ten
lin e s c o m b in e d , tíA t en d o f m o n th . ||P r o p o r t io n o f a v e ra g e
s t o c k s so ld d u r in g m o n th . # P e r c e n t o f c o lle c t io n s d u r in g
m o n th t o a m o u n t o u t s ta n d in g at first o f m o n th . 0 I n d e x e s
are f o r th re e m o n th s e n d in g o n m o n th in d ica te d . O Revised.
38
M O N T H L Y REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS
shipments to the Atlantic Coast increased by 25
per cent during April as compared with March.
The April shipments were the largest reported
since August, 1928, and were 40 per cent above
the low point of February, 1929.
The District’s foreign commerce, according
to figures of value of imports and exports, in
creased sharply during March. Imports into the
District reached the largest total for any March
of record and exports were the largest for the
month since 1920.
M a y , 1929
dency toward improvement in the credit situa
tion was noted in the later month. Demand for
Reserve Bank credit averaged smaller during
the first half of May than at any time this year.
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
— ........
1
SECURITY 1-OANS & y
INVESTME
900
' C om m erci AL
LOANS
TOTAL I.OANS &
INVES1rMENTS J
600
in ve stm en TS
Prices
During recent months the trend of wholesale
com m odity prices, both in the United States
and in the Tw elfth District, has been down
ward. The declines have been the result,
primarily, of declines in prices of certain agri
cultural products and of basic industrial com
modities such as cotton, w ool, rubber, copper,
lead, zinc, and petroleum.
During recent weeks industrial commodities
of greatest importance in the Tw elfth District
have, with few exceptions, been firm in price.
Lumber prices have been steady, petroleum
price declines have been checked with the prom
ise of at least temporarily effective curtailment
of output, and non-ferrous metals prices have
been unchanged since mid-April. As indicated
in this Review last month, the sharp drop in
copper prices from 24 cents to 18 cents per
pound early in April represented a reduction in
quotations which were largely nominal, only a
relatively small volume of metal having been
sold at the 24-cent level.
Recent com m odity price declines of impor
tance to this District, therefore, have been
largely confined to agricultural products. The
most important movement since mid-April has
been the decline in quotations for wheat which
has brought the price of that grain to the lowest
level since May, 1924. Other grain prices have
been steady or have moved similarly to wheat
during recent weeks. Current low prices for
oranges, as compared with prices during 1928,
reflect the market pressure of a large crop of
small-sized fruit. In the livestock group, sharp
reductions in quotations for lambs, were partly
seasonal and partly the result of the poorer
quality of the animals marketed. Quotations for
hogs have declined slightly while cattle prices
have held relatively firm. Livestock prices,
however, are currently ranging higher than a
year ago. W o o l prices, which have moved stead
ily downward for several months past, con
tinued weak during April and early May, and
cotton prices have declined during recent weeks.
Credit Situation
Recent credit trends in the Twelfth Federal
Reserve District which were discussed in some
detail in last m onth’s Review, persisted during
late April and early May, although a slight ten
M T e t de m >VND & TIME
DEPC5SITS
SFCAJR1TY
L oans
300
1927
1928
1929
IS2Q
1927
1929
C hart I
C h a r t II
M E M B E R B A N K C R E D IT
M on th ly averages o f w eek ly figures o f T w elfth D istrict reporting
m em ber banks. Latest figures are averages fo r the
first three report dates in M a y .
The appearance of greater ease in the money
markets of the District during recent weeks
may be attributed chiefly to an increase in the
supply of funds. This increase was the result
chiefly of an inward movement of funds from
outside the District and of Treasury operations
in the District, and was accompanied by in
creased deposits at member banks and reduced
borrowing at the Reserve Bank. Loans of re
porting member banks continued to expand and
on May 15, 1929, totaled 1,319 million dollars,
the largest volume of loans ever extended by
the group of city banks reporting these data.
Their security loans, at 422 million dollars, stood
near the high point for the current year (425
million dollars reached in March) while their
commercial loans at 897 million dollars were
higher than at anytime since early January, 1929.
R E P O R T I N G M E M B E R B A N K S — T w e lfth D istrict
(In millions of dollars)
T o t a l L o a n s an d In v e s t m e n t s . . .
T o t a l L o a n s ...........................................
C o m m e r c ia l L o a n s ...........................
L o a n s on S e c u r itie s ........................
In v e s tm e n ts ...........................................
N e t D e m a n d D e p o s i t s .....................
T im e D e p o s it s ....................................
B o r r o w in g s fr o m F e d e ra l R e s e r v e
A verage C o n d itio n D uring M onth-'*
A p ril, M a rch ,
M a y ,“
M ay,
1929
1928 :
1929
1929*
1,944
1,948
1,846
1,956
1,246
1,299
1,305
1,314
877
886
883
896
422
369
418
413
600
643
642
645
797
783
769
765
937
989
977
973
54
69
74
56
• A v e r a g e o f first th ree w e e k ly r e p o r ts in th e m o n th .
The increased supply of funds in the Twelfth
District resulted chiefly from (a) a flow of funds
into the District from other districts amounting
to 23 million dollars, (b ) net treasury disburse
ments totaling 12 million dollars, (c) Mint pur
chases of new and imported gold amounting to
two million dollars (partly offset by the export
of $605,000 in gold coin to China)— all between
the middle of April and the middle of May.
Total bill and security holdings of the Federal
Reserve Bank of San Francisco were reduced
by 34 million dollars between April 17 and
M a y , 1929
FEDERAL RESERVE AG EN T AT SAN FRANCISCO
May 15, and stood at 79 million dollars on the
latter date as compared with 157 million dollars
early in March when the present downward
CURVE I
C U R V ES 2& 3
PER
CENT
39
rowing during 1928. Country bank borrowing
has tended upward throughout 1929.
On May 20, 1929, the Federal Reserve Bank
of San Francisco raised its discount rate on all
classes and maturities of paper from 4y2 to 5
per cent. The AV2 per cent rate, which had been
in effect since June 2, 1928, had latterly been
below the Bank’s buying rates on acceptances
and well below commercial borrowing rates.
The present advance brings the discount rate
more nearly into line with these open market
rates. (See Chart IV .)
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
i--------- r—
TOTAL BILLS ANC
SECURITIES
460
TOTAL BILL.S AND |\->
SECURI1;!ES
/
PRINCIPAIL FACTORS
AFFECT INC, DEMAND
»40
movement commenced. Reduced member bank
borrowing has been almost wholly on account
of city banks, as was the increase in such borF E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F S A N F R A N C IS C O
(In millions of dollars)
T o t a l B ills an d S e c u r itie s .
B ills D i s c o u n t e d ....................
B ills B o u g h t ............ ..
U n ited States S e c u r itie s .. .
T o t a l R e s e r v e s ......................
T o t a l D e p o s i t s ........................
F e d e ra l R e s e r v e N o te s in
M ay,
1929*
94
68
15
11
264
184
A p ril,
1929
113
80
19
14
246
183
M arch ,
1929
136
86
35
15
226
184
M ay,
1928
110
65
25
20
257
188
156
156
159
159
* A v e r a g e o f first 15 d a y s.
A
!
Y
f
I
fiv p
n v c
pern
e c u s c ig u .
f
V _
--
f
/
/
»
u
\
V
1 92 7
1928
y
BILLs K v U. S. SECUR
B OU GH T^
____________ 1
1 92 9
1927
C hart V
1928
C hart VI
R E S E R V E B A N K C R E D IT *
C H A R T V — Principal factors affecting dem and fo r credit at Federal
R eserve Bank o f San F ra n cisco . M on th ly changes cum ulated from
A p ril 1,1927. F igures are for report dates nearest the m iddle o f each
m onth, latest figures being for M a y 15.
Solid line show s total o f : (a) dem and for cu rrency, (b ) T reasury r e
ceipts and disbursem ents, ( c ) im ports and exports o f gold, (d ) mint
purchases o f new gold, (e) transfers o f funds betw een T w elfth D is
trict and other parts o f U nited States. B roken line show s total bill
and security holdings, F ederal R eserve Bank o f San F ran cisco.
C H A R T V I — M on th ly averages of daily figures, F ederal R eserve Bank
of San F ra n cisco . Latest figures are averages for first 15 days in M ay.
* T h e a m o u n t o f b ills a n d se c u r itie s h e ld b y th e F e d e ra l R e s e r v e
B a n k o f San F r a n c is c o is n o t an e n tire ly a c c u r a te m easu re
o f T w e lft h D is t r ic t d e m a n d f o r R e s e r v e B a n k c re d it. I t
in clu d e s se c u r itie s (a n d b ills ) p u r c h a s e d o u tsid e o f the
T w e lft h D is t r ic t and d o e s n o t in c lu d e b ills p u rch a s e d in th is
D is t r ic t and a llo tte d t o o th e r F e d e ra l re s e rv e ban k s.
In t e r c o a s t a l T r a d e o f P a c if ic
The volume of waterborne commerce passing
through the ports of the Tw elfth Federal Reserve District (which includes all of the Pacific
Coast of the United States) has grown almost
continuously during recent years. In 1927 and
in 1928, according to this Bank's preliminary
estimates, it reached a record figure of approximately 71 million tons, an increase of 16 million
tons or 30 per cent as compared with figures of
l\
I V
TOTAkL
D1SCOUIMTS
¡2 1
L O A N -D E P O S IT R A T IO S
IN T E R E S T R A T E S
C H A R T I I I — L o a n -D e p o s it ratios, T w e lfth D istrict reporting m em
ber ban ks. M on th ly averages o f w eek ly figures. Latest figures are
averages for first three report dates in M a y .
C u rv e 1. R atio total loans and investm ents to net dem and and time
deposits.
C u rv e 2. R atio com m ercial loans to net dem and and time deposits.
C u rv e 3. R atio security loans and investm ents to net dem and and
tim e deposits.
C H A R T I V — R eserve Bank discount rate and averages o f prevailing
interest rates charged by banks in San F ra n cisco . F igures are as of
m iddle o f each m onth, latest figures being for M a y .
C oa st P o rts*
deroraboutone-sixth. Monthly data showingthe
volume of local and coastwise trade of the more
important ports of the Pacific Coast are not yet
available, and indexes of the volume of the foreign trade of this area have not yet been computed. Indexes of the value of foreign trade on
the Pacific Coast are presented in the distribuw a te rb o rn e
com m erce o f th e
t w e lft h
fe d e r a l
re se rv e d is tr ic t!
F oreign
Intercoastal
L o ca l and
r -C o m m e r c e —\ '—C o m m e rce —' /— C oa stw ise
Nearly two-thirds of the total volume of
TotaJ T o n - PerS ent Ton-P e r o f nt T o n - PerS ent
waterborne commerce of the Pacific Coast durT on nage
nage
T otal
nage T otal
nage
T otal
ing the past five years has been in the coastwise 1927! ! ! ! ! 70*563 1M 76 23
i o ’ 9o s
15 43*579 62
51t ir l I a p p I
f f v i n o * ■f'f'ZiHf* * 1
’hpt 1c? f i p f w p p t l fiOT'ts 11 99 22 56 ...........
........... 68,089
14,163
21
16
42,933
a n a lo c a l c a r r y in g t r a a e , t n a t is , D e tw e e n p o r x s
59,908 10,913
18 10,993
9,388
16
39,607 63
66
of the District. Foreign trade has accounted for 1924........... 54,235 11,404 21
11,119 21 31,712 58
d l V h t l v oo vv ee rr oo nn ee -fmi f ti lhl 01
o f tmh e
to ta l w a te rb o rn e
e lU U li w a i e i u u m e
t C o m m e r c e o f P a c ific C o a s t p o r ts an d w a te rw a y s in th o u sa n d s
o f t o n s ; 1928 figu re s are p r e lim in a r y estim ates.
________
>
* I n t e r c o a s ta l tra d e is the w a te rb o rn e tra d e b e tw e e n P a c ific an d
A t la n t ic an d G u lf C o a s t p o r ts o f the U n ite d S ta tes. O n ly vessels o f A m e r ic a n r e g is tr y o r e n r o llm e n t are p e rm itte d to e n g a g e
in th e c o a s t w is e an d in te rc o a s ta l tra d e o f th e U n ite d S tates.
S o u r c e s : F o r e ig n c o m m e r c e , U n ite d S tates S h ip p in g B o a r d ; 1928
fig u re s estim a te d fr o m 9 m o n th s d ata. In te r co a s ta l c o m m e r ce , P a n a m a C anal R e c o r d . T o t a l c o m m e r c e , ann ual rep o r ts o f U n ite d S tates A r m y E n g in e e rs , ad ju ste d to e lim in ate
d u p lic a tio n s in lo c a l and c o a s tw is e t o n n a g e ; 1928 e stim a te d
fro m P o r t W a r d e n s ’ r e p o r ts .
S ilg n u y
commerce and intercoastal trade for the remain-
40
M a y , 1929
M O N T H L Y REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS
tion and trade table on page 37 of this Review.
This article presents a newly computed series
of monthly indexes of intercoastal traffic to and
from Pacific Coast ports, the index numbers
being adjusted for seasonal variation and ex
pressed as percentages of the 1923-1925
monthly average. Because of the erratic m ove
ments in the series it has been desirable to
smooth the indexes by use of a three months’
m oving average centered on the last month.
The original data in tons of 2240 pounds are
from the Panama Canal Record and include
cargo tonnage passing through the Panama
Canal during the calendar month rather than
that loaded and unloaded at Pacific Coast ports
during the month. The difference between these
two sets of figures is not significant.
The intercoastal trade of the Twelfth Federal
Reserve District has had a remarkable growth
since the close of the W orld W ar. Soon after
the Panama Canal was opened in 1914, shipping
tonnage was diverted to Atlantic trade routes
and, during the war years, there was little
waterborne traffic between the Pacific and A t
lantic coasts of the United States. W ith the
release of shipping from war service, a world
surplus of ship tonnage made itself felt in ex
traordinarily keen competition for freight car
rying business. A large number of American
ships sought the protected intercoastal carrying
trade, and shipping rates on this route were
reduced to low levels. Under the stimulus of low
rates, which coincided with record shipments
of California petroleum (on a tonnage basis, the
most important single com m odity passing
through the Panama Canal), cargo tonnage in
creased to record levels in 1923 and early 1924,
this Bank’s monthly index averaging 126 for
the twelve months ending April, 1924. A period
of greater stability in freight carrying charges
began during the latter half of 1924, petroleum
shipments declined, and tonnage offerings as
sumed proportions which appear to be more
IN D E X
nearly normal than the offerings of the imme
diate post-war period.
M IL L IO N S
T0N3
OF
M I L L IQ N ,$
6
2«
27
28
Ptu
mXm
ro- G«arg«
eneral
I
II
III
IN T E R C O A S T A L A N D F O R E IG N C O M M E R C E
P A C IF IC C O A S T
I. A nnual tonnages o f ca rg o — intercoastal and foreign.
I I . A n nual tonnages of im ports (inbound cargo first colu m n ) and
exports (outbound cargo secon d colu m n ) — intercoastal and
foreign.
I I I . A n nual tonnages o f eastbound intercoastal shipm ents — p e
troleum and lum ber com pared with all other cargo.
The total volume of intercoastal traffic has
declined slightly since 1924. The trend of ship
ments from the Atlantic to the Pacific Coast,
which consist principally of general cargo, has
been constantly upward since that year and
such shipments reached new high levels at the
close of 1928. The tonnage of goods m oving
from the Pacific to the Atlantic Coast, which is
about four times that m oving from Atlantic to
Pacific Coast, has registered a net decline since
1924. An increase in the amount of petroleum
carried accounts for an increase in Pacific to
Atlantic tonnage during 1926 and 1927 and a
decrease in shipments of this com m odity was
responsible for a decline in total shipments dur
ing 1928 and 1929. The tonnage of lumber (the
second most important com m odity in this
trade) shipped in the intercoastal trade of the
United States has increased during recent years,
and shipments of general cargo have shown a
steady growth.
IN D E X
NUM BERS
r'
11
AVERAG ES
120
I
4i ' T
ATLANT!
f
1
1
TO
/
t»
v
t9
«
1
«
t
A T L A N T IC
1
/
/
----- *«------À vv
A
I
.
/ / r r "v
W
w
/
*
30
/
TO
60
A T I-A N T I C
/
/
/ \J
1915 1920 1925 1930 1921
30
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
192 7
1928
1929
IN T E R C O A S T A L W A T E R B O R N E C O M M E R C E
A n nual and m onthly indexes o f cargo m ovem ents from A tlantic to Pacific ports and from Pacific to A tlan tic ports (1923-1925 average = 100).
120
U r w 'A
P A C IF IC
1*
TO
P A C IF IC
V
*
f
P A C IF IC
TO
\1
*
P A C IF IC
A T L A N T IC
/
I /»
»
30
4
iA 25 2 6 27 2 8
■ H NTE R C O A S T A L
NUM BERS
60
T O N S
CARGO
ANNUAL
90
OF
E A S T B O U N D
@FedFRASER