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MONTHLY REVIEW
TWELFTH
FEDERAL
R E SERVE
D I S TR I C T
F ed er a l R e se r v e Ba n k o f S a n F r a n c is c o
M a y 1952
REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS
w e lfth
T
p roved
D is t r ic t b u s in e s s c o n d itio n s in
som ew h at
over
e a r lie r
m o n th s
A p r il
im
th is
year
se t b y la g g in g c o n s u m e r d e m a n d , p a r t o f w h ic h
w as
ca u se d b y n o r m a l se a so n a l fo r c e s . T h e electrical m a c h in
th o u g h th e u p w a r d d r ift in e c o n o m ic a c tiv ity w a s q u ite
e r y a n d s h ip b u ild in g in d u str ie s, h o w e v e r , re fle cted th e
ir r e g u la r a m o n g d iffe r e n t a r e a s a n d b u s in e s s lin e s w ith in
re la tiv e ease in
th e D is t r ic t. S tr ik e s a n d lo w e r d e m a n d in s o m e lin e s
d am pened
th e
g r o w th
of
e m p lo y m e n t.
C o n s tr u c tio n
m o v e d a h e a d o f 1 9 5 1 in s o m e a re a s a n d la g g e d b e h in d in
o th e r s.
R e ta il
im p r o v e d ,
but
a g a in
som e
C o n tra c ts co m p le te d
e m p lo y m e n t d r o p p e d .
D e s p ite th e se a d v e r s e fa c to r s , n o n a g r ic u ltu r a l e m p lo y
lin es
m e n t g a in e d a b o u t o n e -h a lf o f on e p erce n t b e tw e e n M a r c h
la g g e d w h ile o th e r s m a d e im p r e s s iv e g a in s . C r e d it re str ic
a n d A p r i l , a n d m a n u fa c tu r in g e m p lo y m e n t g a in e d a lm o s t
tio n s o n c o n s u m e r g o o d s w e r e lifte d in e a r ly M a y , b u t
o n e p erce n t. S e a s o n a l in cre a se s in lu m b e r , fo o d p r o c e s s
c o n s u m e r s a p p e a re d to b e m o r e r e s p o n s iv e to p ric e cu ts
in g , a n d tra d e e m p lo y m e n t, c o m b in e d w ith g a in s in a ir
th a n to e a sie r c r e d it te rm s .
c r a ft, n o n e le ctrica l m a c h in e r y , a n d m e ta ls in d u str y jo b s ,
Employment steady despite
adverse factors
lin e s.
T w e lfth
tr a d e
d e fe n se d e m a n d .
vw e r e n o t re p la ce d w ith n e w o r d e r s, a n d p ro d u c tio n a n d
w e r e su fficien t to c o u n te ra c t th e lo w e r le v e ls in o th e r
D is t r ic t n o n a g r ic u ltu r a l e m p lo y m e n t g a in e d
Construction shifts upward
m o d e r a te ly f r o m M a r c h to A p r i l d e sp ite a ra sh o f strik es
L e d b y a sh a rp g a in in re sid e n tia l b u ild in g , T w e lft h
a n d a s lo w in g u p in th e ra te o f g r o w th in d e fe n s e in d u s
D is t r ic t c o n str u c tio n in A p r i l m o v e d a h e a d o f the sa m e
trie s. L a b o r -m a n a g e m e n t d is p u te s th a t re su lte d in w a lk
m o n th a y e a r a g o . A f t e r a v e r y w e a k sta rt in J a n u a r y ,
o u ts
a c tiv ity
in v o lv e d
1 ,2 0 0
te le g r a p h e r s
and
7 ,0 0 0
te lep h o n e
w o r k e r s in th e T w e lft h D is t r ic t, 1 2 ,0 0 0 c a rp e n te rs in th e
in F e b r u a r y
exceeded
th e le v e l o f th e c o r r e
s p o n d in g m o n th la st y e a r , b u t th e M a r c h v o lu m e slip p e d
S a n F r a n c is c o B a y A r e a ( t h e s tr ik e u ltim a te ly a ffe c te d
b e lo w 1 9 5 1 le v e ls b y a m in o r a m o u n t. I n A p r i l , h o w e v e r ,
o th e r c r a fts a n d s p re a d to a ll o f n o r th e r n C a lif o r n ia ) ,
b u ild in g a g a in ro se a b o v e y e a r -a g o le v e ls p o in tin g u p the
3 ,5 0 0 b u s d r iv e r s , a n d s m a lle r g r o u p s in a n u m b e r o f
fa c t th a t th e o ft sla in d r a g o n o f th e p o s tw a r p e r io d still
o th e r lin es o f a c tiv itie s.
N e it h e r th e b r ie f steel strik e
h a d c o n sid e r a b le life . P r e lim in a r y d a ta in d ica te th a t all
str a d d lin g th e la s t d a y o f A p r i l a n d th r e e d a y s in M a y ,
o f th e g a in , a b o u t 3 p e r c e n t, o c c u r re d in re sid e n tia l b u ild
n o r th e strik e o f 4 0 ,0 0 0 lu m b e r w o r k e r s s ta r tin g A p r i l 2 9
in g as n o n re sid e n tia l a c tiv ity slip p e d slig h tly f r o m A p r i l
a ffe c te d th e A p r i l e m p lo y m e n t c o u n t, h o w e v e r , b e ca u se
1951.
it is ta k e n a b o u t m id -m o n t h . T h e D is t r ic t, w ith a fe w
m in o r e x c e p tio n s , w a s u n a ffe c te d b y th e n a t io n -w id e oil
w a lk o u t sin ce , in o r d e r to a v o id a n in te r ru p tio n o f fu el
su p p lie s f o r K o r e a , C a lifo r n ia re fin e rie s w e r e n o t stru ck .
T ow ard
th e e n d
of
M ay
se ttle d , a lth o u g h s o m e
m any
o f th e
lu m b e r w o r k e r s ,
d is p u te s
w ere
ca rp e n te rs in
s o m e n o r th e r n C a lifo r n ia c o u n tie s , a n d b u s d r iv e r s o n a
fe w
s m a ll lin e s
w ere
still s tr ik in g .
The
T h e r e is a m p le e v id e n c e th a t th e re str ictio n s o n re si
d en tia l real e state c r e d it h a v e lim ite d th e d e m a n d fo r
h o u s in g a n d
r e str a in e d th e v o lu m e o f h o m e b u ild in g .
T h a t th e d e m a n d is still re la tiv e ly str o n g , h o w e v e r , is e v i
d en c ed b y th e fa c t th a t th e n u m b e r o f u n its f o r w h ic h
b u ild in g p e r m its w e r e g r a n te d in th e T w e lf t h D is t r ic t in
steel d isp u te
a w a ite d fin d in g s o f th e U n i t e d S ta te s S u p r e m e C o u r t.
Also in This Issue
E m p lo y m e n t in A p r i l re fle cted th e e ffe c ts o f se v e ra l o f
th e se d is p u te s a n d re su lte d in lo w e r p u b lic u tility , c o n
Retail Credit Survey—1 9 5 1
str u c tio n , a n d tr a n s p o r ta tio n e m p lo y m e n t, a n d a ffe c te d
Twelfth District Nonagricultural
Employment Indexes
m a c h in e r y a n d p r in tin g in
W a sh in g to n .
At
th e sa m e
tim e , re d u c tio n s in th e o u tp u t o f fu r n itu r e , e le ctrical m a
c h in e r y ,
s h ip b u ild in g ,
and
te x tile s
a ls o
re ta rd e d
th e
g r o w th o f e m p lo y m e n t. F u r n itu r e a n d te x tile s w e r e b e
Everyone Had More Money in the Bank
46
FEDERAL RESERVE B A N K OF S A N FRA N C ISCO
M ay 1952
A p r i l e x c e e d e d th e a m o u n t in A p r i l 1 9 5 1 b y a lm o s t 1 0
la r g e e x te n t th e im p r o v e d b u sin e ss a fte r E a s t e r is a t
p e r ce n t. T h e d o lla r v a lu e o f th e p e r m its issu e d in cre a se d
trib u ta b le to e x te n s iv e cle a ra n ce sa le s, p a r tic u la r ly in th e
m o r e th a n 1 5 p e r c e n t, a sig n ific a n tly la r g e r g a in th a n o c
L o s A n g e l e s a rea.
c u r re d in th e n u m b e r o f p e r m its . T h o u g h tr a c t b u ild
T h e sp o ttin e ss a p p a r e n t in e m p lo y m e n t a n d c o n s tr u c
e rs m a y in s o m e c a se s b e a im in g to b u ild h o u s e s re q u ir
tio n is a lso a m p ly e v id e n t in d e p a r tm e n t sto re sa le s. S a le s
in g lo w d o w n p a y m e n t s , th e h ig h e r a v e r a g e p e r m it v a lu
o f fu r n itu r e , flo o r c o v e r in g s , m a jo r a p p lia n c e s, ra d io , a n d
a tio n in A p r il th is y e a r in d ica te s th a t a la r g e r p r o p o r tio n
te le v isio n
o f h ig h e r -p r ic e d u n its is b e in g b u ilt th is y e a r th a n last.
S a le s o f silv e r , w o m e n ’ s a c c e sso r ie s a n d c lo th in g , a n d
w e r e w e ll b e lo w
y e a r -a g o
le v e ls th is A p r i l .
C o n s tr u c tio n a c tiv ity h a s n o t b e e n u n ifo r m t h r o u g h
m e n ’ s c lo th in g w e r e u p sh a r p ly f r o m t h e l 9 5 1 le v e ls. C u s
o u t th e D is t r ic t, h o w e v e r . T h e v o lu m e o f co n s tr u c tio n in
t o m e r s in sto re s h a d m o n e y to sp e n d , b u t th e y w e r e d o in g
n o r th e r n
a r e a s , h a s b een
so w ith ca u tio n , se le c tiv ity , a n d d e lib e r a te n e ss. P u r c h a s e s
la g g in g w e ll b e h in d la s t y e a r a n d b u ild e rs in th a t area
C a lifo r n ia , e x c e p t f o r a fe w
in th e d u ra b le lin e s d id n o t p ic k u p u n til sp ec ia l sa le s
te n d to b e q u ite p e s s im is tic as to th e p o ssib ilitie s f o r se ll
o v e r c a m e th e d istin c t a lo o fn e s s c o n s u m e r s h a d h a d fo r
in g h o m e s u n d e r p r e s e n t r e s tr ic tio n s . T h e m o s t m a rk e d
th e se ite m s.
w e a k n e s s w a s in th e c o u n tie s a r o u n d S a n F r a n c is c o B a y .
I n c o n tr a s t, L o s A n g e l e s C it y re p o r te d a
S u s p e n s io n o f R e g u la t io n W
o n M a y 7 p a v e d th e w a y
p e r ce n t g a in ,
f o r e a sie r c r e d it te r m s . F o llo w in g th e s u s p e n s io n o f the
th e c o u n ty a r e a a m o d e r a te in cr e a se o f a b o u t 5 p e rce n t,
re g u la tio n , re ta ilers a n n o u n c e d c o n s id e r a b ly m o r e le n ie n t
7 0
a n d fa ir in c r e a se s w e r e re p o r te d b y a n u m b e r o f o th er
te r m s . I n s o m e fe w ca se s n o d o w n p a y m e n t a n d lo n g
citie s w ith in L o s A n g e l e s
C o u n ty . O r e g o n a ls o h a d a
m a tu r ity p la n s h a v e b e e n a n n o u n c e d . T h e e ffe c t so fa r ,
v a r ie d e x p e r ie n c e . P o r tla n d , C o r v a llis , A s t o r ia , B a k e r ,
h o w e v e r , h as be e n sp o tty . A u t o m o b ile d e a le r s f o r th e
a n d a n u m b e r o f o th e r citie s h a d b e tter r e su lts th a n last
m o s t p a r t h a v e re p o r te d r is in g sa le s, b u t s o m e d ea lers
y e a r , b u t E u g e n e h a d le ss th a n o n e -th ir d th e a c tiv ity o f
h a v e h a d v e r y little in cr e a se . A p p lia n c e d e a le r s a p p e a r
A p r i l 1 9 5 1 . S a lt L a k e C it y a n d S a lt L a k e C o u n ty issu e d
to h a v e h a d a n in itial flu r r y b u t it h a s n o t b e e n w e ll s u s
less th a n h a lf th e n u m b e r o f p e r m its g r a n te d a y e a r a g o .
ta in e d . S im ila r e x p e r ie n c e h a s b e e n a p p a r e n t in o th e r
In
lin e s. T h e r e is little in d ic a tio n th a t th e r e la x a tio n o f th e
W a s h in g to n ,
S e a ttle
and
Spokane
re p o r te d
sh a rp
d r o p s , b u t K i n g C o u n ty ( t h e u n in c o r p o r a te d a re a a r o u n d
c r e d it te r m s h as y e t led to a m a r k e d e x p a n s io n o f c o n
S e a t t le ) a n d B r e m e r to n re p o r te d s u b sta n tia l g a in s .
s u m e r s p e n d in g .
Department store sales stronger in April
S lo w l y s lip p in g sa le s m a r k e d d e p a r tm e n t s to re a c tiv
ity in th e firs t th r e e m o n th s o f th is y e a r o n a se a s o n a lly
a d ju s te d b a s is . E a s t e r tr a d e , h o w e v e r , p r o v e d s lig h tly
b e tte r th a n la s t y e a r a n d p o s t -E a s t e r b u sin e ss w a s v e r y
g o o d . A s a r e s u lt A p r i l d e p a r tm e n t s to re sa le s o n a se a
so n a lly a d ju s te d b a sis w e r e s lig h tly ah e a d o f M a r c h 1 9 5 2
and A p r il
1 9 5 1 . T h i s in d ic a tio n o f s tr e n g th c o n tin u e d
in to M a y , w ith sto re s in s o u th e r n C a lifo r n ia a c tin g as
p a ce se tte rs fo r th e first tim e in m a n y m o n th s . T o a v e r y
SU SPEN SIO N O F R E G U LA T IO N W
The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System issued
the following statement to the press on M ay 7, 1952:
“ Effective immediately the Board of Governors has suspended
Regulation W relating to consumer instalment credit.
“ This action was taken after careful review of developments in
the economy generally and in the markets directly affected by the
regulation. The Board has recommended to the Congress that
authority for the regulation of consumer credit be continued after
June 30 so that it could be reinstated should subsequent develop
ments necessitate such action.”
RETAIL CREDIT SURVEY—19 5 1
h e v o lu m e o f sa le s in th e T w e l f t h F e d e r a l R e s e r v e
th a n in 1 9 5 0 , b u t h ig h e r p ric es w e r e re sp o n sib le f o r s o m e
D is t r ic t v a r ie d c o n s id e r a b ly a m o n g d iffe r e n t lin e s d u r
o f th e ir g a in s . T h e s e d a ta w e r e o b ta in e d f r o m th e a n n u a l
in g 1 9 5 1 . T h e m a jo r d u ra b le g o o d s re ta ilers— a u t o m o
su r v e y o f c r e d it -g r a n t in g re ta ilers in th e T w e l f t h D is t r ic t.
T
b ile , a p p lia n c e , a n d fu r n itu r e d e a le r s— s o ld less in 1 9 5 1
th a n in 1 9 5 0 . I n c o n tr a s t, la r g e g a in s w e r e re p o r te d b y
h a r d w a r e , je w e lr y , a n d w o m e n 's a p p a r e l sto re s . R e ta il
e r s o f a u to m o b ile tir e s a n d a c c e s s o r ie s a n d m e n ’ s c lo th
Instalment sales decline in importance
B e c a u s e o f c o n s u m e r a p a th y to w a r d m a jo r
d u ra b le
ite m s a n d the re str ictio n s o n c o n s u m e r c r e d it, in s ta lm e n t
in g re p o r te d m o d e r a te in cr e a se s a n d d e p a r tm e n t sto re s
sa le s d ec lin ed in im p o r ta n c e . S e llin g o n tim e d r o p p e d
r e p o r te d a m in o r g a in . T h i s e x p e r ie n c e o n a re g io n a l
p r im a r ily in th e h ig h o u tla y lin e s w h ic h a c c o u n t f o r a
b a sis m ir r o r s to a s ig n ific a n t d e g re e c o n s u m e r b e h a v io r
m a jo r p o r tio n o f m u ltip le -p a y m e n t sa le c r e d it. A
n a tio n a lly d u r in g 1 9 5 1 . T h e d is in c lin a tio n o f c o n s u m e r s
p o r tio n o f th e d ec lin e in th e to ta l d o lla r v o lu m e o f a u t o
good
to sp e n d o n d u ra b le g o o d s a fte r th e tw o p o s t - K o r e a b u y
m o b ile d ea lers re su lte d f r o m a d r o p in in s ta lm e n t sa le s.
in g sp r e e s h e ld re ta il sale s to a m u c h s m a lle r rise th a n o c
A u t o m o b ile tire a n d a c c e s s o r y s to r e s, th o u g h th e y h a d a
c u r r e d in th e in c o m e th a t c o n s u m e r s c o u ld sp e n d . T h is
h ig h e r d o lla r v o lu m e in 1 9 5 1 th a n in 1 9 5 0 , r e p o r te d a
re lu c ta n c e w a s m o s t a p p a r e n t in p u rc h a se s o f la r g e tick et
sh a r p d r o p in tim e sa le s. S o m e o f th e se sto re s te n d to be
ite m s — a u to m o b ile s , m a jo r h o u s e h o ld a p p lia n c e s , a n d
h a r d g o o d s ca fe te ria s c a r r y in g , in a d d itio n to tir e s a n d
fu rn itu r e . M o s t s o ft g o o d s lin e s d id b e tter d o lla r -w is e
o th e r a u to m o b ile e q u ip m e n t, r e fr ig e r a to r s , fr e e z e r s , r a -
M ay 1952
47
M O N T H L Y R E V IE W
R etail S ales
Number
of stores
Kind of store
reporting1
Automobile dealers.................... 250
Auto tire and accessory.......... 242
Department2 ..............................
88
195
Furniture....................................
Hardware............................ - . . . .
77
178
Household appliance................
41
Jewelry........................................
52
Men’s clothing..........................
30
Women’s apparel......................
Total
sales
— 4
+ 6
+ 3
— 1
+ 11
— 5
+ 8
+ 5
+ 8
by
T ype
of
P a y m e n t — T w elfth D istrict ,
-Cash sales-----------As a
percent of total
f-------sales------- x
Percent
1951
change
1950
35
— 5
35
62
+ 12
59
44
44
+
15
15
38
39
+ 7
— 3
23
22
— 1
20
22
— 2
53
57
36
37
+ 7
1950-51
Regular charge sales—
As a
percent of total
Percent ,------- sales------change
1950
1951
16
17
+ 4
21
-{-16
23
48
48
+ 4
30
29
+ 2
52
53
+ 14
25
26
+ 1
3
+ 15
3
35
38
+ 14
59
60
+ 10
•Instalment sales---------\
As a
percent of total
-------salesPercent
1950
change
1951
— 6
48
49
— 23
15
20
+ 2
— 3
55
56
9
9
+ 11
51
— 8
53
+ 10
77
75
9
8
+ 16
— 6
4
4
1 Includes credit-granting stores only.
2 Not including national chains.
d io s, a n d te le v is io n . T h e d ec lin e in sale s o f th e latte r
lin e s th is w a s su fficien t to c o u n te r th e d eclin e in in sta l
ite m s re su lte d in a re d u c tio n in th e a m o u n t o f in sta lm e n t
m e n t se llin g so th a t c r e d it sales a c co u n te d fo r th e sa m e o r
cred it e x te n d e d b y th e a u to m o b ile tire a c c e s s o r y g r o u p .
a la r g e r p o r tio n o f o v e r -a ll d o lla r v o lu m e th a n in 1 9 5 0 .
F u r n itu r e s to re s a n d a p p lia n ce d ea lers a ls o r e p o r te d a
O n l y in th e ca se o f a u to m o b ile tire a n d a c c e sso r y sales
sm a lle r v o lu m e o f in s ta lm e n t s e llin g as w e ll as lo w e r
w a s th e g a in in c h a rg e sa le s to o sm a ll to o ffs e t th e d ro p
in tim e c r e d it sa le s. C a s h sales fo r th e se re ta ilers w e r e
to ta l sale s.
G a in s in in sta lm e n t cre d it in th e T w e l f t h D is t r ic t w e r e
h ig h e r as a ra tio to to ta l sales in 1 9 5 1 th a n in th e p re v io u s
re p o r te d b y d e p a r tm e n t, h a r d w a r e , je w e lr y , a n d m e n ’ s
year.
c lo th in g sto re s . E x c e p t fo r d e p a r tm e n t sto re s , th e se lin es
Accounts receivable smaller
in relation to sales
d o n o t d e r iv e a sig n ific a n t sh a re o f th e ir v o lu m e fr o m
ite m s th a t re q u ire a m a jo r e x p e n d itu r e a n d w e r e a lso
s u b je c t to c r e d it re str ictio n s at th a t tim e . T h u s tw o p r in
B e c a u se o f th e re d u c tio n in c r e d it e x te n d e d o n tim e ,
cip a l fa c to r s d e p r e s s in g in s ta lm e n t s e llin g w e r e a lm o s t
m o s t lin es re p o r te d a sm a lle r lev el o f re ce iv a b le s re la tiv e
in o p e ra tiv e in th e se ca se s. T h o u g h d e p a r tm e n t sto re s d e
to c r e d it sales th a n in 1 9 5 0 . T o t a l re ce iv a b le s d ec lin ed in
r iv e a la r g e p a r t o f th e ir in s ta lm e n t sales f r o m the ite m s
a b so lu te a m o u n t f o r a u to m o b ile d e a le r s, tir e -a c c e s s o r y ,
m o s t a d v e r s e ly a ffe c te d b y c o n s u m e r b e h a v io r a n d tig h te r
fu rn itu re , h a r d w a r e , a n d h o u se h o ld a p p lia n ce sto re s . I n
c r e d it d u r in g 1 9 5 1 , th e ir s e llin g o n tim e in cre a se d s lig h t
all o f th e se ca ses e x c e p t h a r d w a r e s to r e s, lo w e r in sta l
ly . T o s o m e e x te n t th is illu stra te s th e fa c t th a t d e p a r t
m e n t c r e d it sales w e r e a n im p o r ta n t fa c to r . R e c e iv a b le s
m e n t s to re s fa r e d b etter in d u ra b le g o o d s sales th a n d id
as a p e r c e n ta g e o f all c r e d it sales d ec lin ed d u r in g 1 9 5 1 in
e ith e r a u to m o b ile o r a p p lia n ce d ea le r s. I n a d d itio n , so m e
each o f th e se lin e s, as w e ll a s in th o se lin e s w h ic h re
d e p a r tm e n t sto re s in th is D is t r ic t in tro d u c e d r e v o lv in g
p o r te d a la r g e r d o lla r v o lu m e o f re ce iv a b le s w ith th e e x
cr e d it p la n s in 1 9 5 1 . T h e s e p la n s are e ss e n tia lly a m e a n s
ce p tio n o f w o m e n ’ s a p p a r e l sto re s.
o f lu m p in g all p u rc h a se s o f a c u s t o m e r to g e th e r a n d p e r
m it tin g tim e p a y m e n t.
A
c o n s id e r a b le p o r tio n
of
the
g o o d s so ld u n d e r su ch p la n s a re s m a ll o u tla y ite m s . R e
su lts w o u ld in d ica te th a t th e in cr e a se in su c h p la n s last
y e a r m o r e th a n o ffs e t th e d r o p in in s ta lm e n t sale s th a t
fo llo w e d a m in o r d ec lin e in th e sale o f d u ra b le g o o d s .
T h is m a r k s a d e p a r tu r e f r o m th e e x p e r ie n c e o f o th e r
re ce n t y e a r s a n d in d ica te s a sh o r te r p e r io d d u r in g w h ic h
b ills r e m a in e d u n p a id . T h e m o r e ra p id p a y m e n t o f d eb t
a lso a p p lie d to c h a rg e a c c o u n t as w e ll a s tim e p a y m e n t
b a la n ce s d esp ite th e fa c t th a t c h a rg e sales ro se s u b sta n
tia lly in m o s t lin e s. T h e m o r e liq u id p o sitio n o f c o n s u m
Regular charge sales stronger in 1951
R e g u la r c h a r g e sales in c r e a se d
e rs, as e v id e n c e d b y th e sh a r p rise in th e ir sa v in g s d u r in g
in all lin e s a n d a c
c o u n te d fo r th e la r g e s t g a in b y ty p e o f p a y m e n ts . I n m o s t
1 9 5 1 , p r o b a b ly a c c o u n ts f o r th e m o r e ra p id p a y m e n t o f
sto re b ills th a n in e a rlie r y e a r s.
A ccounts R eceivable of R etail E s t a b l is h m e n t s — T w e l f t h D istrict , 1950-51
Number
of stores
reporting1
Kind of store
Automobile dealers.............................. ........................ 238
Auto tire and accessory......................
80
Department2 .......................................... ........................
Furniture ..............................................
Household appliance............................
Jewelry..................................................
Men’s clothing ....................................
Women’s apparel..................................
1 Includes credit-granting stores only.
2Not including national chains.
-Total receivablesAs a percent
of total credit
Percent
•sales-------\
change
1951
1950
— 8
5
6
— 17
7
9
28
29
+ 1
— 11
44
48
— 5
14
17
15
14
— 3
69
73
+ 5
28
29
+ 9
27
26
+ 12
Charge account
-----receivables----As a percent
of charge account
Percent , -------saleschange
1951
1950
— 1
12
12
— 21
9
14
24
25
+ 2
— 11
17
21
— 3
13
16
— 5
18
18
31
33
+ 8
28
29
+ 8
+ 16
25
24
Instalment
-receivables—
As a percent
of instalment
Percent
t------- sales
change
1951
1950
— 17
3
3
— 2
4
3
0
53
54
— 11
49
53
— 12
16
20
— 1
13
12
71
75
+ 5
27
27
+ 18
— 14
51
56
48
M ay 1952
FEDERAL RESERVE B A N K OF SAN FRANCISCO
Inventory turnover varies widely
Inventory turnover was even more variable than sales
among different lines. For example, automobile tire and
accessory stores reported lower turnover than in 1950
despite a substantial sales increase. Even though sales de
clined at furniture stores, turnover improved. These
seeming contradictions stemmed from the variation in
control over inventories among the various lines. A 13
percent increase in stocks resulted in the less favorable
record reported by tire and accessory dealers. A sharp
cut in inventories made possible the better turnover of
furniture stores. Reductions in stocks as well as slightly
larger sales helped department stores improve their rec
ord, and women’s apparel stores, with the largest gain in
turnover, also profited by cutting goods on hand while in
creasing sales. These variations again point up the spotti
ness of 1951 as a retail business year and are instructive
in demonstrating the effect of prompt responses by re
tailers to changing market conditions.
I n v e n to r y C h a n g e a n d I n v e n t o r y T urnover—
T w e l f t h D i s t r i c t , 1 9 5 0 -5 1
Kind of store
Number
of stores
reporting1
Automobile d e a le r s .................
A uto tire and accessory..........
Department2 ...............................
Furniture ....................................
Hardware ....................................
Household ap plia n ce...............
Jewelry .........................................
M en’ s c lo th in g ...........................
W om en ’s a p p a rel......................
266
246
Ill
234
80
189
52
66
48
Percent
change in
inventories
+ 17
+13
— 7
— 2
+ 9
— 1
— 5
+ 1
— 12
Inventory
- turnover*------ N
1951
1950
7.6
9.2
2.6
2.8
4.4
4.0
2.8
2.7
2.8
2.8
3.8
3.8
3.0
2.6
2.4
2.4
4.0
4.8
1 Includes credit-granting stores only.
2 N ot including national chains.
3 Sales during year divided by inventories at retail at end of year.
TWELFTH DISTRICT NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT INDEXES
monthly series of indexes of total nonagricultural
employment in the Twelfth District, dating from
1943, has been prepared recently by this bank. The in
dexes are on a 1947-49 base. “ Nonagricultural employ
ment” refers to wage and salary workers in nonagricul
tural establishments. Agricultural workers, proprietors,
self-employed persons, members of the armed forces, do
mestic servants, and unpaid family workers are excluded
from the data. Only those full and part-time nonagricul
tural workers receiving pay during the period ending
nearest the fifteenth of the month are termed “ em
ployed.” Therefore, labor disputes taking place before or
after this period are not reflected by the indexes.
Nonagricultural employment indexes have been com
puted for five geographic areas: the Twelfth District as a
whole; California, Oregon, and Washington separately;
and four Intermountain states, Arizona, Idaho, Nevada,
and Utah, combined. The basic data for the new series
new
A
are the monthly nonagricultural employment estimates
made by the seven states.1 Industries included in the em
ployment figures may be broadly classified as manufac
turing ; mineral extraction ; contract construction ; trans
portation, communication, and public utilities; trade;
finance and realty; government; and services and mis
cellaneous activities. Because the “ government” classifi
cation includes some workers engaged in agricultural pur
suits, the definition of “ nonagricultural” is subject to a
minor qualification. The proportion of workers employed
in the several categories varies among the states because
of different economic and seasonal characteristics. Manu
facturing employment, however, is the major single com1 These estimates are published monthly by the following state agencies co
operating with the Bureau of Labor Statistics : Arizona, Em ploym ent Se
curity Commission ; California, Division of Labor Statistics and Research ;
Oregon, Unemployment Compensation Com m ission; Idaho, Employment
Security A g e n cy ; Nevada, Em ploym ent Security D epartm ent; U tah, D e
partment of Employment Security; W ashington, Employment Security
Department.
N O N A G R IC U LT U R A L EM PLOYM EN T—TW E LFTH DISTRICT, BY AREAS, A N D U NITED STATES
Indexes o f total nonagricultural employment, adjusted for seasonal variation, 1947-49=100. Latest figures shown
are lor March 1952; the United States index is estimated for that month.
Sources: United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, various state agencies, and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
May 1952
49
M O N T H L Y REVIEW
ponent in this District, accounting for 25 percent of all
nonagricultural jobs. Manufacturing employment fluctu
ates more widely than does total nonagricultural employ
ment because of its greater sensitivity to cyclical and ran
dom changes.
To reveal nonseasonal movements more clearly, regu
larly recurring seasonal changes in nonagricultural em
ployment were measured and the indexes adjusted to ex
clude them. As might be expected, total nonagricultural
employment in the various states has shown a greater
seasonal variation since World War II than during the
war, when the economy was operating at full capacity.
The most pronounced seasonal movements occur in Ore
gon and Washington where such industries as lumbering
are affected by severe winter weather.
Nonagricultural employment in the District has ex
panded at a greater rate than in the nation as a whole
during the past decade. Within the District the Inter
mountain region has captured the lead in nonagricultural
employment from the Pacific Northwest during the last
three years in terms of percentage increase. Nonagricul
tural employment in both areas has expanded since 1943,
but the Intermountain region has gained more than three
times as many workers as has the Pacific Northwest.
Substantial liquidation of the World War II shipbuild
ing industry and lower aircraft activity have reduced
manufacturing employment in the Pacific Northwest
thereby retarding the rate of gain of nonagricultural em
ployment in that region. The rapid increases in employ
ment in trade, services, and government in the Inter
mountain area were the main factors contributing to a
rise which has permitted that region to seize the lead in
relative expansion of jobs.
EVERYONE HAD MORE MONEY IN THE BANK
u s in e s s e s
and private persons pushed their demand
B deposit balances to a record level of $10.1 billion in
the Twelfth District during the year ended January 31,
1952. The Federal Reserve System’s annual survey of
the ownership of demand deposits of individuals, part
nerships, and corporations reveals an over-all increase of
9 percent in accounts in this District during the year with
all major types of depositors sharing in the gain. Manu
facturing and mining firms, with holdings up 14 percent,
had the largest dollar increase though the increment was
only two-thirds that of the previous year. Farmers, whose
balances had changed little during the January 1948-51
periods, increased their deposits by over 17 percent, the
greatest percentage growth in the various ownership cate
gories in the Twelfth District. Nationally total business
and personal deposits were up 7 percent with all types of
deposits showing gains not greatly different from this
average.
Business balances continue to grow
The financial needs arising from the expanding defense
program are reflected in the continuing expansion of de-
mand deposits of businesses, particularly those of manu
facturing and mining firms. Cash needs for materials,
wages, transport, and other costs have been growing as
well as outlays for expansion programs. Commercial and
industrial loans of Twelfth District banks increased 23
percent during 1951 with loans to manufacturing and
mining firms growing steadily throughout the year. In
addition, corporate businesses may have been building
up larger balances early in 1952 in order to meet pay
ments of corporate income taxes. With the Mill’s plan
in operation, 35 percent of these taxes had to be paid on
March 15; and the next two years, when this percent
age will go even higher, may see further growth in cor
porate balances on the survey date.
Twelfth District deposits of retail and wholesale trad
ers were 7 percent above the January 1951 level, partly
accounted for perhaps by some recent liquidation of
swollen inventories. Deposits of other nonfinancial busi
nesses (public utilities, hotels, laundries, theaters, and
other service concerns) were up 9 percent. Insurance
companies had balances 17 percent larger than on the 1951
E s t i m a t e d D i s t r i b u t i o n b y O w n e r s h i p o f D e m a n d D e p o s it s of I n d i v i d u a l s , P a r t n e r s h i p s , a n d C o r p o r a t io n s T w e l f t h D i s t r i c t a n d U n i t e d S t a t e s , o n S e l e c t e d D a t e s 1 9 4 9 -5 2
(in m illion s)
'
■"
—Twelfth District-
...........
+ 10
+ 7
43,200
8,400
46,700
9,000
+8
+ 7
4,690
750
2,700
5,250
750
2,890
5,750
880
3,020
+ 10
+ 17
+ 4
51,600
7,000
23,800
55,700
7,500
25,200
+8
+ 7
+6
3,510
450
3,450
430
3,640
440
3,900
490
+ 7
+ 11
30,800
5,400
32,700
5,600
+6
+4
$8,560
$8,570
$9,320
$10,140
$87,700
$94,000
Total domestic b u s in e s s ....................................
F a r m e r s ..........................................................................
Other p e rso n a l............................................................
.........................................................................................
$1,160
1,600
1 Nonprofit associations, foreign deposits, and trust funds of banks.
N o t e : Figures may not add to totals because of rounding.
échange
J a n .1951
to Jan .1952
4,730
1,020
3,840
850'
Total
—United States-
4,300
950
Total nonfinancial ................................................
Financial ........................................................................
Total pe rson al.......................................................... ............
Other1 ............................................................................... ............
”
$1,680
1,820
1,220
January
1951
$1,480
1,700
1,120
Type of holder
Manufacturing and mining ................................................
Retail and wholesale trade ................................................
Other nonfin ancial.....................................................
...“
change
J a n .1951
to Jan. 1952
+ 14
+ 7
+ 9
%
January
1950
$1,180
1,560
1,100
January
1949
January
1952
+
9
January
1951
$19,600
14,000
9,700
January
1952
$21,300
15,000
10,500
+9
+ 7
+8
+ 7
50
M ay 1952
FEDERAL RESERVE BA N K OF SAN FRANCISCO
survey date but other financial concerns built up their
balances at a slower rate during the year.
P ercent
C h a n g e s , Ja n u a r y
1951-J a n u a r y
1952, in
D emand
D e p o s it s o f I n d i v i d u a l s , P a r t n e r s h i p s , a n d C o r p o r a t io n s —
T w e l f t h D is t r ic t
Individuals' balances increase, too
Personal checking account balances were up about 7
percent in the Twelfth District. Part of this reflects the
increase in savings of individuals during 1951. Prepara
tion for payment of the new taxes on the self-employed,
too, may account for some of the increase in personal bal
ances. Farmers’ deposits expanded over 17 percent as
cash receipts from crop and livestock marketings reached
record levels. The greatest growth in personal accounts
was registered in balances between $10,000 and $25,000
in contrast to the previous year when balances over
$25,000 made the largest expansion.
Balances of nonprofit organizations were up about 11
percent in the Twelfth District as well as in the United
States. Deposits of trust funds of banks and of foreigners,
Size of account-----------Balances Balances
over
$10,000$25,000
$25,000
, ------------------------- --------
Type of holder
Manufacturing and mining .
Retail and wholesale trade . . . . .
Other nonfinancial................... . . . .
Total n o nfin ancial............... . . . .
....
Total domestic business . . . . . .
....
....
....
Balances
under
$10,000
+6
+ 7
+7
+3
+6
+7
+6
+7
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
18
3
13
9
10
9
12
13
10
Total
+ 14
+ 14
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ 7
+ 9
+ 10
+ 7
+ 10
+ 7
+11
+ 9
9
9
11
9
11
5
14
10
1 Nonprofit associations, foreign deposits, and trust funds of banks.
both very minor portions of Twelfth District total hold
ings, made sizeable percentage increases in this area
though their balances were down in the country as a
whole.
M a y 1952
m o n t h l y
51
r e v ie w
BUSINESS INDEXES—TWELFTH DISTRICT1
(1 9 4 7 -4 9 a v e r a g e s 1 0 0 )
Ind ustrial produ ction (p h ysical v o lu m e )2
Year
and
m o n th
L um ber
P etroleum *
R e fin e d C e m e n t
C rude
Lead*
Copper*
W heat
flour*
T o ta l
W a terb o rn e
nonagri T o ta l
C ar
D ep ’t
foreign
Retail
store
m f’g
loadings
cu ltu r al
traiae*»*
food
sales
E le c tric e m p lo y e m p lo y ( n u m
b er)2
(v a lu e)2 p rice s* • E x p o r ts Im p o rts
power
m ent
m e n t4
30
25
18
21
24
28
30
28
31
33
40
49
59
65
72
91
99
104
98
105
108
64
50
42
45
48
48
50
48
47
47
52
63
69
68
70
80
96
103
100
100
113
190
138
110
132
135
131
170
164
163
132
124
80
72
78
109
116
119
87
95
101
ioo
101
96
95
99
102
99
103
110
“ 47
54
60
51
55
63
83
121
164
158
122
104
100
102
98
105
119
102
68
52
60
66
77
81
72
77
82
95
102
99
105
100
101
106
100
94
97
100
89
129
86
85
91
185
' *57
81
98
121
137
156
135
135
135
135
140
141
135
141
140
136
109
110
110
110
111
111
110
111
111
111
118
118
120
120
120
120
118
120
121
120
99
113
106
107
92
94
104
101
101
100
102
102
104
103
108
106
108
106
114
110
112
112
113
112
113
112
112
113
114
117
168
187
192
196
201
240
215
187
182
192
178
183
140
166
147
142
155
172
144
130
142
139
142
113
113
113
122
124
125
86
101
100
105
103
102
116
183
146
114
97
51
41
44
54
70
74
58
72
79
93
93
90
90
72
85
97
104
99
112
114
87
57
52
52
62
64
71
75
67
67
69
74
85
93
97
94
100
101
99
98
106
78
55
50
50
56
61
65
64
63
63
68
71
83
93
98
91
98
100
103
103
112
54
36
27
35
33
58
56
45
56
61
81
96
79
63
65
81
96
104
100
112
128
165
100
72
76
86
96
114
92
93
108
109
114
100
90
78
70
94
105
101
109
89
105
49
17
24
37
64
88
58
80
94
107
123
125
112
90
71
106
101
93
115
115
90
86
75
81
87
81
84
81
91
87
87
88
98
101
112
108
113
98
88
86
95
29
29
26
28
30
34
38
36
40
43
49
60
76
82
78
78
90
101
108
119
136
1951
March
April
M ay
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
110
124
131
124
101
114
105
118
109
99
105
105
105
106
107
107
107
107
107
106
110
111
110
110
112
115
116
114
116
109
122
122
138
132
142
138
129
130
124
119
101
102
95
91
84
67
74
80
85
88
118
127
119
114
112
98
108
116
114
118
94
93
90
81
83
90
96
96
99
101
1952
January
February
March
93
107
108
106
106
106
111
113
115
94
112
113
88r
104r
97
309
109
114
112
105
90
1929
1931
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
lU r
BANKING AND CREDIT STATISTICS—TWELFTH DISTRICT
(amounts in millions of dollars)
C o n d itio n ite m s o f all m e m b e r b an k s7
Year
an d
m o n th
U .S .
D em an d
Loans
deposits
and
G o v ’t
d is c o u n t s s e c u r itie s ad ju sted*
T o ta l
tim e
deposits
1929
1931
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
2,239
1,898
1,486
1,469
1,537
1,682
1,871
1,869
1,967
2,130
2,451
2,170
2,106
2,254
2,663
4,068
5,358
6,032
5,925
7,105
7,907
495
547
720
1,064
1,275
1,334
1,270
1,323
1,450
1,482
1,738
3,630
6,235
8,263
10,450
8,426
7,247
6,366
7,016
6,392
6,533
1,234
984
951
1,201
1,389
1,791
1,740
1,781
1,983
2,390
2,893
4,356
5,998
6,950
8,203
8,821
8,922
8,655
8,536
9,244
9,940
1,790
1,727
1,609
1,875
2,064
2,101
2,187
2,221
2,267
2,360
2,425
2,609
3,226
4,144
5,211
5,797
6,006
6,087
6,255
6,256
6,720
1951
April
M ay
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
7,367
7,422
7,509
7,473
7,630
7,704
7,791
7,885
7,907
5,696
5,685
5,708
6,005
6,000
5,998
6,204
6,356
6,533
8,818
8,834
8,862
9,052
9,058
9,235
9,485
9,584
9,940
6,332
6,357
6,448
6,510
6,547
6,576
6,642
6,625
6,720
1952
January
February
March
April
7,806
7,760
7,787
7,850
6,543
6,413
6,378
6,313
9,951
9,420
9,426
9,408
6,806
6,900
6,915
6,924
B ank
rates on
short-term
busin ess
loans*
M e m b e r bank reserves an d related Ite m s 10
Reserve
bank
cred it11
—
3.65
3.82
6
48
18
4
+
14
+
38
+
3
20
+
31
+
96
+
+ 227
+ 643
+ 708
+ 789
+ 545
326
—
206
— 209
—
65
—
14
189
+
175
147
185
242
287
479
549
565
584
754
930
1,232
1,462
1,706
2,033
2,094
2,202
2,420
1,924
2,026
2,269
42
28
18
21
25
30
32
29
30
32
39
48
61
69
76
87
95
103
102
115
132
_
45
13
+
73
+
—
14
+ 159
—
43
— 121
+ 236
— 276
+
-
200
162
113
342
80
18
143
239
102
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
226
150
199
298
86
42
283
118
279
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
26
36
39
19
41
32
17
18
14
2,180
2,149
2,217
2,186
2,312
2,293
2,291
2,392
2,269
125
131
134
125
129
129
134
137
141
84
180
309
176
-
228
109
17
237
+
+
+
194
I ll
272
102
—
+
86
20
7
13
2,416
2,365
2,313
2,341
134
138
139
133
+
+
+
—
+
+
3.94
Reserves
h 23
- 154
- 150
- 257
- 219
- 454
- 157
- 276
h 245
- 420
hi, 000
-2,826
h4,486
h4,483
-4,682
-1,329
- 698
- 482
+ 378
+ 1 ,1 9 8
+ 1 ,9 8 3
—
+
+
—
—
+
+
+
+
+
+
—
+
3.67
—
+
B ank de b its
Index
31 cities** *•
(1 9 4 7 -4 9 *.
100)2
0
154
110
198
163
227
90
240
192
148
596
—1,980
-3 ,7 5 1
- 3 ,5 3 4
- 3 ,7 4 3
- 1 ,6 0 7
510
+ 472
930
- 1 ,1 4 1
- 1 ,5 8 2
+
3.20
3.35
3.66
34
21
2
7
2
6
1
3
2
2
4
107
214
98
76
9
302
17
13
39
21
C oin and
Treasu ry
cu rrency In
C o m m ercia l
o p era tio n s12 op e ra tio n s12 c irc u la tio n 11
—•
+
+
1 Adjusted for seasonal variation, except where indicated. Except for department store statistics, all indexes are based upon data from outside sources, as
follows: lumber, various lumber trade associations; petroleum, cement, copper, and lead, U.S. Bureau of M ines; wheat flour, U.S. Bureau of the Census;
electric power, Federal Power Commission* nonagricultural and manufacturing employment, U .S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and cooperating state agencies;
retail food prices, U .S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; carloadings, various railroads and railroad associations; and foreign trade, U.S. Bureau of the Census.
8 Daily average.
* N ot adjusted for seasonal variation.
4 Excludes fish, fruit, and vegetable canning.
6 Los Angeles, San Francisco, and
Seattle indexes combined.
6 Commercial cargo only, in physical volume, for Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego, Oregon, and Washington customs
districts; starting with July 1950, “ special category” exports are excluded because of security reasons.
7 Annual figures are as of end of year, monthly
figures as of last Wednesday in month or, where applicable, as of call report date.
8 Demand deposits, excluding interbank and U.S. G ov’t deposits, less
cash items in process of collection. M onthly data partly estimated.
0 Average rates on loans made in five major cities daring the first 15 days of the month.
10 End of year and end of month figures.
11 Changes from end of previous month or year.
12 Minus sign indicates flow of funds out of the District
in the case of commercial operations, and excess of receipts over disbursements in the case of Treasury operations.
11 Debits to total deposit accounts,
excluding inter-bank deposits.
r — revised.
@FedFRASER