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Reviens Monthly FEDERAL RESERVE BANK MAY OF SAN F R A N C ISC O 1948 RETAIL CREDIT SURVEY— 1947 sales rose markedly and total sales varied con siderably among nine retail lines in the Twelfth Dis trict during 1947. Total sales increased especially in major durable goods. The behavior of credit sales, accounts re ceivable, and bad debt losses of the retailers included in this survey reveals that consumers used more credit during 1947 but experienced little difficulty in meeting the obligations incurred. Except for three lines, inven tories were greater at the end of 1947 than a year earlier. Because of a continued strong demand from consumers, however, most retailers were able to maintain or improve their turnover. The foregoing conclusions are based on reports sub mitted for more than 1,000 retail stores in the Twelfth District. This is the sixth annual retail credit survey con ducted by the Federal Reserve System covering the oper ation s^ credit-granting retailers. A report covering each line of business, giving details by size and cities and areas for which sufficient reports were received to permit publi cation of data, is available upon request. r e d it C Changes in total sales varied markedly The dollar volume of sales for all retail lines in this survey, except jewelry and women’s apparel stores, in creased during 1947, but experience varied widely. As might well have been expected, the most outstanding gains occurred in stores selling major consumer durable goods, especially automobiles and household appliances. Furniture stores and hardware stores also improved their sales substantially during 1947. Lines other than major durable goods reported less favorable sales results. The dollar volume of sales de clined for jewelry and women’s apparel stores. Though dollar sales increased for department stores, automobile R e t a il S ales by tire and accessory stores, and men’s clothing stores, the percentage increases over 1946 were smaller than the in crease in prices for most goods sold by such stores. This suggests a decline in the physical volume of such sales. More credit used in 1947 Led by the expansion of instalment sales, credit sales became more important in total sales during 1947. This continued the 1946 experience except for two lines— automobile dealers and automobile tire and accessory stores— which reported the first increase in the ratio of credit sales since 1942. The shift toward a larger propor tion of credit sales, particularly instalment, was consider ably more pronounced in 1947 than in 1946. Several fac tors were responsible for this shift. During 1947 prices increased somewhat faster than salaries and wages, the principal sources of consumer incomes. Since people were buying more consumer durable goods which require con siderable outlays, they needed more credit. Toward the end of the year, the abandonment of restrictions on in stalment sales permitted easier credit terms. Instalment sales rose in importance for all lines. The ratio of cash sales to total sales declined for all lines between 1946 and 1947. Despite this decline the propor tion of sales made for cash was larger than in 1941, the last prewar year. Automobile tire and accessory stores, household appliance stores, hardware stores, and jewelry stores reported cash sales ratios far above those in 1941. Accounts receivable increased substantially During 1947 collections on accounts receivable were slower than in 1946. This is evident from the greater increase in accounts receivable than in credit sales for each line. Four of the nine lines— automobile dealers, T y p e of P a y m e n t — T w e l f t h D is t r ic t 1947 compared with 1946 Kind of store Department1 ...................................... Furniture ........................................... Hardware ........................................... Household ap p lia n ce................... Jewelry ................................................ M en’s c lo t h in g ................................. W om en ’s apparel .......................... JN ot including national chains. 2 Less than ^ of 1 percent. Number of stores reporting . 125 . 246 , 102 99 52 35 48 55 38 Cash sales--------- . Percent of Percent total sales change 1947 1946 +45 46 48 — 2 72 75 — 7 52 57 24 30 + 1 41 44 + 2 + 35 42 45 — 30 34 48 — 6 60 66 — 17 36 42 f----- t— Regular Percent change + 36 — 9 + 13 + 25 + 16 + 28 + 18 + 21 + 3 charge sales—s Percent of total sales 1947 1946 26 29 18 21 43 39 37 36 46 44 34 39 25 20 40 34 61 55 Instalment sales------ N Percent of total sales 1947 1946 28 23 10 4 5 4 39 34 12 13 18 126 24 16 23 41 32 67 14 Percent change + 78 + 146 + 56 + 39 + + + + + 38 M ay 1948 FEDERAL RESERVE B A N K OF SA N FRANCISCO A c c o u n t s R e c e iv a b l e of R e t a i l E s t a b l i s h m e n t s — T w e l f t h D is t r ic t 1947 compared with 1946 Number of stores reporting . . 123 . . 246 97 62 51 35 48 54 37 Kind of store Automobile dealers Au to tire and accessory. Department1 ...................... F u r n it u r e ............................. H a r d w a r e ............................. Household appliance . . . Jewelry ................................ M en’s clothing ................. W om en ’s apparel ............ Percent changejn total receivables + 78 + 55 + 18 +46 +27 +74 + 69 + 27 + 11 Regular charge receivables— > Percent of total receivables 1947 1946 34 53 56 77 81 88 + 9 41 37 +60 +29 81 80 47 64 + 28 36 30 + 40 99 99 +27 94 93 + 10 Percent change + 14 + 13 Instalment receivables-----N Percent of total receivables 194 6 1947 66 47 23 44 19 12 59 63 19 20 21 53 36 154 64 70 85 1 1 135 6 26 7 Percent change + 149 + 191 + 92 + 38 + + + + + JN ot including national chains. automobile tire and accessory stores, furniture stores, and household appliance stores— reported gains in accounts receivable of over 50 percent from 1946. Instalment re ceivables increased more rapidly than instalment sales, and predominated in the rise of receivables in all lines but furniture and hardware stores. Regular charge re ceivables grew faster than regular charge sales for auto mobile dealers, department stores, and household appli ance stores. The behavior of accounts receivable is a further indica tion of the cash position of consumers in 1947 relative to 1946. In 1946 when prices rose rapidly and durable goods reappeared on the market in considerable quantity, con sumers still made large down payments on instalment sales and paid the balance (both instalment and regular) in relatively short periods. During 1947, however, down payments on instalment sales appeared to be nearer the legal minimum and repayment periods closer to the legal maximum required by Regulation W . And after Regula tion W terminated, on November 1, there was some easing of instalment credit terms. Repayment on regular charge accounts, which were removed from controls on December 1, 1946, also slowed up for most lines. Bad debt losses remained small Though the behavior of credit sales and accounts re ceivable indicates a tighter cash position of consumers, bad debt losses of retail firms, examined by the Federal Reserve System for the first time in the 1947 survey, were very small relative to credit sales. The dollar amounts of the losses were greater for all lines (except household ap pliance stores) in 1947 than in 1946; but the ratio of total bad debt losses to total credit sales increased in only four of the nine lines— automobile tire and accessory stores, hardware stores, and the two apparel lines. Even for these B ad D ebt L o sses and T otal C r e d it 1947 compared with 1946 a N ot including national chains. A4osf inventories increased Despite the high level of stocks existing at the end of 1946, most lines increased the value of their inventories during 1947. Supply conditions were considerably im proved in a number of lines, making it possible to add to stocks. The large increases in inventories reported by household appliance dealers, hardware stores, and men’s clothing stores indicates a substantial increase in goods on hand as well as an increase in their dollar value. The size of the increases in dollar inventories of automobile dealers, furniture stores, and women’s apparel stores, however, indicates that higher prices may have been the most important factor in increasing their level over a year earlier. Inventories appeared to stand in reasonable rela tion to sales because of the favorable behavior of turnover ratios for most lines. Turnover ratios increased in five lines and declined substantially in only two lines. The rate of turnover improved for automobile dealers, furniture stores, and household appliance stores, even though they reported substantial inventory increases. Automobile tire and ac cessory stores improved their turnover position chiefly by reducing stocks. Men’s clothing stores and women’s apparel stores reported marked declines in turnover. Inventories for both lines increased substantially, but men’s clothing store sales increased only 1 percent while women’s apparel store sales declined 5 percent. S ales— T w e lfth R e t a il D is t r ic t Number of stores reporting Kind of store . 121 Automobile dealers A u to tire and accessory' 245 66 Department1 ................. Furniture ...................... 69 49 H a r d w a r e ...................... 34 H ousehold appliance. Jewelry ........................... 48 M en ’s clothing .......... 55 38 W o m e n ’s apparel . . . retailers the loss ratios were less than 1 percent of sales and the increase in the ratio was small. Jewelry firms had the highest loss ratio, 1.3 percent, in both 1946 and 1947. Examination of the data reveals that, except for furni ture stores, bad debt losses on charge accounts increased faster than regular charge sales. The reverse was true for instalment bad debt losses, except for furniture stores and jewelry stores. ,---- Percent change---- N Total bad Total credit sales debt losses + 55 + 50 + 15 + 77 + 35 + 19 + 70 + 30 +29 + 17 + 55 0 + 21 +24 +22 + 88 + 57 + 4 Ratio of total bad debt losses to total credit sales <—(in percent)—N 1947 1946 .2 .3 .7 .4 .4 .4 .2 .2 .5 .4 .2 .4 1.3 1.3 .5 .3 .4 .3 S ales and I n v e n t o r ie s — T w e l f t h D is t r ic t 1947 compared with 1946 Percent Number Percent change in of stores change in inventories Kind of store reporting total sales at retail . 165 + 49 + 17 Auto tire and accessory. . . . 252 — 14 + 2 Department2 ................... . 120 0 + 3 Furniture ........................ 160 +20 + 16 H a r d w a r e ........................ 75 + 12 + 29 66 + 49 + 40 Jewelry ................. 58 — 7 0 M en’s clothing . . 71 +21 + 1 W om en ’s apparel 53 — 5 + 10 1 Sales during year divided by inventories at end of year. 2 N ot including national chains. Inventory turnover1 1947 1946 9.9 7 .7 4.4 4.1 4.9 4.7 3.0 2.9 4.2 3.7 4.4 4.1 1.9 2.0 4.3 3.6 4.5 5.2 39 M O N T H L Y REVIEW May 1948 FRUIT AN D VEGETABLE C A N N IN G — TWELFTH DISTRICT h e f r u it and vegetable canners of the Twelfth Dis trict are entering the new packing season in a cautious, T though moderately optimistic, state of mind. Financial results for most District canners in the 1947 season have been satisfactory, although many of them packed less and sold at lower prices than in the especially good year 1946. While wholesalers and retailers are buying cautiously, consumer demand for canned goods remains at a reason ably high level. Inventories, though larger than in the war years, are not considered excessive except for tomato products and peas, although some canned fruit items, notably mixed fruits, are in relatively large supply. E x ports and Government purchases of some District canned food products were curtailed in 1947, but procurement for European aid and expanded military personnel may reverse this trend. With the return to a buyer’s market well under way, trade opinion tends to forecast District packs in 1948 substantially below those of the past two seasons, though probably up to the average of other recent years. Very large packs in 1946 and 1947 The almost phenomenal increase in production of canned fruits and vegetables in the United States in recent years apparently reached its climax in 1946. In that year the aggregate pack of eight leading fruits and eight lead ing vegetables totaled about 200 million cases— nearly one-quarter more than the average of the two large packs of 1944 and 1945. In 1947 the total output of the same products dropped by about 11 percent to around 178 million cases, which was still well above the production of any year prior to 1946. The canning of fruit and vegetable juices has increased in recent years even more rapidly than other canned food production. Total juice packs in the season ending Octo ber 1946 reached a peak of more than 110 million cases, compared with an annual average of 76 million cases during the period 1941-45, and 38 million cases in 1936-40. The citrus juice pack alone was almost 63 million cases in 1946, but was cut back sharply to 48 million last year. The existing price situation in citrus juices seems likely to discourage a pack approaching that figure during the current season. The tomato juice pack reached a peak of 35 million cases in the 1946-47 season; last season’s pack was cut to less than 20 million cases. As in the nation at large, the volume of canned fruits and vegetables packed in the Twelfth District during the past two seasons greatly exceeded the output even of the war years when the industry was operating under forced draft. The Twelfth District fruit pack, which represents the major part of the national output, excluding pine apple, averaged close to 33 million cases during the four years 1942-45; it topped 51 million cases in 1946, and was almost 42 million cases in 1947. The latter figure was well above the output of any other year except 1946. The District vegetable pack during the four years 1942-45 averaged close to 43 million cases; in 1946 it exceeded 60 million cases, and in 1947 was about 53.5 million cases, a figure also substantially higher than any attained be fore 1946. Packs of individual products The estimated volume of the principal fruit and vege table packs in the four states, California, Oregon, Wash ington, and Utah in the three years 1945-47 is shown in the accompanying table. Reductions in District output in 1947 occurred in all major products except pears and fruit cocktail among the fruit packs and in most of the vegetable packs except tomatoes and string beans. The output of fruit cocktail in 1947 established a new high record for this product; the slightly larger pear pack was still somewhat short of the output of 1941 and 1942. The string bean and tomato packs of 1947 were also below the production in some recent years prior to 1945. The 1947 output of all tomato products, however, was almost equal to the record pro duction of 1946. A relatively overexpanded industry The exceptionally heavy packs of the past two years and resulting topheavy supplies of certain products, to gether with a combination of other unfavorable factors, have created difficulties in certain parts of the District canning industry. In spite of reasonably active demand, canners’ stocks have tended to increase relative to total market supply, and a condition more nearly resembling the prewar situation is gradually being reestablished, with the canners assuming a greater part of the risk of market distribution. Prices of important canned fruits and vegetables de veloped weaknesses in the latter part of 1947 as contrasted P r in c ip a l F r u it a n d V e g etab le P a c k s i n O regon, W a s h in g t o n a n d U t a h , (thousands of cases) Fruit packs1 1945 C a l if o r n ia , 1945-47 1,477 2,094 1946 19,243 10,595 7,752 5,256 3,450 1,885 3,539 1947 18,142 3,259 9,386 5,622 1,816 620 2,820 32,979 51,437 41,665 4,805 29,739 9,701 2,990 3,151 2,757 6,772 26,507 9,087 2,502 1,380 2,976 Apricots .............................................. .......... Fruit c o c k t a il.................................... .......... .......... 4,105 6,035 4,465 Cherries .............................................. .......... Other fruits and berries ............ . . . Total f r u i t s ......................................... .......... Vegetable packs2 Tomatoes ........................................... Other tomato products3 ............... .......... 20,640 A s p a r a g u s ........................................... .......... 2,651 String b e a n s ....................................... .......... 5,938 6,926 4,317 Total v e g eta b les................................ .......... 45,449 60,069 53,540 1 Basis 24 N o . 2 cans (except U tah production, actual cases). 2Actual cases, all grades and sizes. 8 Including tomato juice. Sources: Canners League of California, National Canners Association, Western Canner and Packer. 40 FEDERAL RESERVE B A N K OF SAN FRANCISCO with their marked strength in the corresponding period of 1946. Retail prices of representative canned fruit and vegetable items are reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to have fallen nearly 10 percent in 1947. They had advanced about 25 percent in 1946— even more rapidly than the index of retail food prices in general; but while the general index of food prices has continued to rise to a level considerably above that prevailing at the end of 1946, the index for canned food is substantially below it. Among individual items, the competition of lowpriced citrus fruit juices has for the past two seasons been especially disturbing to District packers of canned tomato juice, but other staple products have also failed to respond to the general strengthening in the price structure. Certain other sources of competition have also tended to restrict the market for District canned food products. The liquidation during the past year of the heavy packs of frozen vegetables put up in 1945 and 1946 probably took the edge off the market for some of them. The easier sugar supply has stimulated the revival of home canning, preserving, and pastry making, which to some extent has reduced the demand for commercially canned fruits. The large apple crop and the abundant supplies of dried fruits available during the current season have probably also had some influence on the situation. The increasing dollar stringency has also cramped the industry’s sales. Export markets were formerly quite important for District fruit canners and in the prewar years absorbed from four to five million cases a year of canned peaches, pears, apricots, and mixed fruits. E x ports dropped sharply during the war but gradually in creased to over two million cases in 1946-47. This upward trend was reversed last year; in the first eight months of the current season exports of three major District products (peaches, pears, and apricots) were less than a million cases compared with over 1.2 million during the corresponding months of 1946-47. Internal readjustments in the industry The tendency toward overexpansion of plant facilities during a period of excessively high construction costs has also contributed to the difficulties of some concerns in the industry, particularly those having insufficient work ing capital. A number of insolvencies have occurred and some forced sales of District canneries have taken place during the past few months. Financing institutions are currently reported to be enforcing stricter credit condi tions than for a number of years past, especially as com pared with the war period, when price controls, ration ing, and military requirements reduced credit risks to a minimum. A process of shaking down and gradual re organization within the industry appears to be under way. This may be expected to hit hardest some of the newer and smaller firms which were induced to expand by the easy profit prospects of recent years. M ay 1948 The outlook for 1948 operations Present indications are that District fruit and vege table packs in 1948 will be somewhat smaller than in 1947 and well below the 1946 level, though probably up to the average of other recent years. California spinach and asparagus packs so far this season are reported lagging behind last year’s output at this date, due in part to reduced acreage and a backward growing season. Labor difficulties are playing some part in preventing the de livery of asparagus to canneries; canned spinach has apparently been vulnerable to the competition of the frozen product. Unfavorable weather has recently been reported in the fruit and vegetable growing districts of the Pacific North west. Opinions differ as to the probable effects of the Cali fornia drought on this season’s fruit packs. Some canners anticipate little or no reduction in orchard crops; others expect that fruit sizes will be smaller and hence cost lier to handle and possibly of lower quality. A definite curtailment is indicated in the acreage of tomatoes for processing, with some reduction in prices to growers. The large carryover of canners’ and distributors’ stocks of peas will probably act as a damper on contracting of acreage for that product also. In other cases the supply of raw materials for processing may be limited by the tendency of growers to shift to other crops promising to yield larger financial returns. Unit costs of canning operations in 1948 are likely to exceed the levels of last year. An increase in cannery wage rates averaging about 6 percent is the principal con tributing factor, though prices of cans and supplies other than sugar have also risen. Raw material costs still re main largely undetermined. Recent advances in freight rates, superimposed on previous increases, are expected to worsen the competitive position of some of the western vegetable packs in certain market areas. The dominant position of the western fruit packs in the national total makes them less susceptible to higher shipping costs, although any increase in total delivered cost adds to consumer price resistance. To some extent the rapidly growing population and consuming power of their local markets tends to offset the widening freight differential which District packers must overcome in distributing their products nationally. Probably the most important factor pointing to reduced canned food packs in 1948 is the existence of a large carryover of certain staple products and the general un willingness of the distributing trade to make firm com mitments for purchase of futures at existing market prices. In contrast to their almost reckless optimism of two seasons ago, the distributors have become ultra conservative and for many months past have followed a policy of strictly replacement buying. This cautious attitude, which results from the changed demand-supply situation, forces the canners to bear more of the financial risk of carrying unsold stocks, and tempers their en thusiasm for duplicating the large packs of the past two years. 41 M O N T H L Y REVIEW May 1948 CROP PROSPECTS FOR 1948— TWELFTH DISTRICT n u s u a l and varied weather conditions during the first part of 1948 have caused considerable uncer U tainty as to what to expect from crops this year. Revisions of estimates of production may possibly be of some mag nitude as the season progresses and more accurate reports can be made of the results of the abnormal situation. Harvest prospects Estimates of production for the 1948 season are still quite incomplete. Prospects were considerably improved during April in California where the above-normal rain fall and continued cool weather brought relief to crops suffering from the winter drought. Winter wheat pros pects are excellent, especially in Washington and Ore gon. Because of very favorable moisture and weather conditions and a 14 percent increase in acreage for har vest, production in the Northwest is expected to exceed that of 1947 by 39 percent. Twelfth District production of winter wheat is indicated at 24 percent greater than last year or at 136 million bushels as against 109 million bushels. Citrus fruit production for the 1947-48 season is esti mated at considerably below that for 1946-47. Arizona and California oranges show a decrease of over 12 per cent, from 55 million boxes last year to 48 million during the current season, with Valencias accounting for the greatest reduction. Grapefruit production is down about 19 percent from 7.2 million to 5.9 million boxes with Ari zona prospects, especially, much smaller than last year. The California lemon crop is expected to be about 11 percent below last year. Freezing temperatures early this spring in Arizona and the southern coastal regions of California reduced considerably the prospects for grape fruit and oranges. Furthermore, the serious drought con ditions in Southern California resulted in decreased sizes of oranges and lemons. Prospects for other fruits and nuts are varied and it is not yet possible to judge the full effect of the abnormal weather conditions of last fall and winter. California fruit prospects vary from fair to good with a wide range of development in different sections. Light sets are re ported for peaches, Bartlett pears, and cherries in some areas ; the prune crop shows a heavy set. In Washington and Oregon there has been some serious frost damage and the wet weather has not been conducive to optimum pollination. Cherries, apricots, peaches, pears, prunes, and strawberries have all been adversely affected. The season is two to three weeks later than a year ago, and weak sets are expected for crops maturing in late May and June. Production of most truck crops for spring harvest in the Twelfth District is expected to be lower than in 1947. Acreage planted is about 7 percent larger, but expected yields are somewhat below those of last year. Large in creases in output are indicated for honeyball melons, onions, potatoes and strawberries. Spring production is expected to be 20 percent or more below that of last year in carrots, canteloupes, lettuce, green peas, tomatoes, and honeydew melons. California prospects have been more favorable since the late spring rains although wet fields have been some detriment to cultivation and harvest, and the quality and size may not be uniformly good. The northern states of the District have had wet and unusually cool weather this year causing the season for many of these crops to be several weeks later than usual, and re sulting in some inferior plant development. Prospective acreage for 1948 harvest Prospective plantings for the 1948 season, according to the United States Department of Agriculture, are not appreciably different from the 1947 total planned acreage of field and seed crops in the Twelfth District. Major in creases in acreage were planned for flaxseed, especially in California where yields and prices were high last year, in barley, oats, potatoes, and winter wheat. Prospective hay plantings are considerably below the 1947 planted acreage, due in part to competition from cotton in the San Joaquin Valley and from flax and sugar beets in the Im perial Valley. A decrease, however, is expected in total Twelfth District acreage in sugar beets. Available data on prospective acreage of District field crops are listed in the accompanying table. There have been some shifts from high to low water requirement crops, especially in Arizona and California. Acreage planned and usually used for hay, particularly alfalfa hay, and for cantaloupes, vegetables, and other crops which need considerable moisture is being reduced and planted instead in cotton, barley, and sugar beets, or allowed to lie fallow. Although no data are yet available on the estimated acreage being planted in cotton this year, all indications point to a considerable increase over 1947. In Washington and Oregon the extremely cool, wet, backward spring has caused changes in acreage plans which are not reflected in the table. Some shifts will be made from dry peas, spring wheat, oats, and flaxseed to earlier maturing crops such as barley and possibly corn. P r o sp e c tiv e A c r e a g e o f T w e l f t h D i s t r i c t F ie ld C rop s— Acres (000) ................... ................... ......................................... ................... 6,561 1,447 5,114 6,016 Beans, dry edible ............................... ..................... Peas, dry f i e l d ............................................................ ................... Sugar Beets .............................................................. ................... ................... ................... 475 413 361 321 245 213 201 W inter (for harvest) 1948 Percentage change 1947 - 48 + 6.9 — 1.2 + 9.5 — 4.9 + 4.2 + 3.9 — 6.5 — 10.4 + 11.7 — 1.5 + 53.1 — 10.1 + 4.7 — 21.2 42 M ay 1948 FEDERAL RESERVE B A N K OF SA N FRANCISCO OW NERSHIP OF DEMAND DEPOSITS— TWELFTH DISTRICT h e r e c e n t annual survey of demand deposit owner ship has shown that total demand deposits of in T dividuals, partnerships, and corporations increased 3 per cent during the 11 months from February 26, 1947 to January 30, 1948 in the Twelfth District, compared with an increase of 6 percent for the country as a whole. Twelfth District personal deposits declined for the first time since the inception of these surveys in July 1943. Deposits in all other ownership categories increased. In general, the smallest depositors experienced declines in their balances, while balances of depositors in the intermediate and largest size groups increased. Postwar trends in business and personal deposits Demand deposits of manufacturing and mining enter prises reached their peak in the Twelfth District in July 1945. Reconversion costs, expenditures on new plant and equipment, and the rebuilding of inventories of civilian goods gradually reduced these deposits in the following year and a half. Although expenditures for plant and equipment occurred on an even larger scale in 1947, increased receipts from the sale of goods and additional borrowing enabled manufacturing and mining enterprises to increase their demand deposits during the elevenmonth period from February 1947 to January 1948. Deposits of wholesale and retail trade establishments were influenced by similar factors, but with some time lag. The growth in sales in the last half of 1945 reduced trade inventories to a low level and raised the demand deposits of such establishments to a postwar peak in Jan uary 1946. Increased production of goods enabled trading concerns to increase their inventories substantially during 1946, and consequently their deposit holdings declined. E s t im a t e d D is t r ib u t io n of O w n e r s h ip T w elfth of D em and With inventories at a more normal level with respect to sales, the' demand deposits of wholesale and retail trade establishments increased slightly during the elevenmonth period ending with January 1948. A further time lag is apparent in the behavior of per sonal deposits which continued to grow in the first year and a half of the postwar period while manufacturing and trading concerns were rapidly expanding facilities and inventories. Such deposits reached their peak in the Twelfth District in February 1947, but declined 2 per cent in the next eleven months as prices continued to rise and goods became available in increasing quantities. There was a substantial increase during the last survey period in demand deposits held by financial organizations, both in the Twelfth District and the country as a whole. Virtually all of this increase occurred in the holdings of insurance companies, and appeared to be primarily the result of the sale of Government securities by those organ izations following the price declines for longer-term Gov ernments in December 1947. Balances of smallest depositors declined Not only did personal accounts (the bulk of which are held by small depositors) decline in the Twelfth District, but all types of deposit holders having balances less than $10,000 reported decreases. In direct contrast, balances in excess of $25,000 increased considerably more than total deposits in the District. Deposits in the intermediate group (balances of $10,000 to $25,000) increased slightly less than total deposits. In each category of deposits except trust funds, the larger the size of depositor the more favorable were the results experienced. This difference in behavior between D e p o s it s of I n d i v i d u a l s , P a r t n e r s h i p s , a n d D is t r ic t a n d U n it e d S t a t e s , o n S e lected D a t e s C o r p o r a t io n s , 1945-48 (millions of dollars) •Twelfth District------------------------------------------ N % change Feb. 26, 1947 Jan. 31, July 31, Feb. 26, to 1946 19471 1948 Jan. 31, 1948 <---------------- United States----------------x change Feb. 26,1947 Feb. 26, Jan. 31, to July 31, 1945 Jan. 31, 1947 1948 Manufacturing and mining ........................... ................... Retail and wholesale trade............................. ................... Other non-financial ............................................ ................... 1,380 1,430 940 1,200 1,740 1,050 1,130 1,660 1,070 1,060 1,610 1,010 1,160 1,650 1,100 + + + 9 2 9 16,000 12,500 8,700 17,300 13,400 9,000 4* 8 4- 7 4- 3 .................................. ................... 3,750 3,990 3,860 3,690 3,910 + 6 37,200 39,800 4- 7 ................................................................. ................... 580 700 750 730 790 4- 8 6,600 7,400 4 -1 2 ...................... ................... 4,330 4,690 4,610 4,420 4,700 + 6 43,800 47,100 4- 8 ................... Other personal ..................................................... .................... 610 2,260 710 2,810 680 2,950 740 2,950 720 2,900 — — 3 2 6,900 22,000 7,200 22,900 4- 4 4- 4 — Type of holder Total Financial Total non-financial domestic business 1946 ............................................ .................... 2,870 3,520 3,630 3,690 3,620 2 28,900 30,100 Other2 ........................................................................ ..................... 350 470 410 440 460 4- 5 5,200 5,100 Total3 ............................................................... .................... 7,550 8,620 8,640 8,550 8,770 4- 3 77,800 82,400 Total personal 1 Revised. 2 Non-profit associations, foreign deposits, and trust funds of banks. 3 Figures will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Jan. 31, 19^ 4- 4 — 2 4- 6 M ay 1948 1947— P ercen t C h an g es, F ebru ary Jan u ary D e p o s its o f I n d iv id u a ls , P a r t n e r s h ip s , a n d T w e lfth 1948, in D em a n d C o r p o r a tio n s — D is t r ic t ,-------------------- Size of Account-----------Balances Balances Balances under $10,000over $10,000 $25,000 $25,000 Total Type of holder Manufacturing and mining . . , . . . Retail and wholesale trade. . . , . . . Other non-financial ..................... .. — 6 —6 —6 — Total non-financial ................... , . . . —6 + 2 + 13 + 6 — 7 . — 6 — 2 + 13 + 3 F in a n cia l............................................. Total domestic business Personal 43 M O N T H L Y REVIEW ............................................. , , Other1 .................................................. + 2 0 3 + 13 + 10 + 17 +9' + 2 + 9 + 1 + 13 +6 —6 + 2 + 13 __ 2 —6 + 22 + 5 + 12 + 3 Total ................................................ + 2 + 3 1 Non-profit associations, foreign deposits, and trust funds of banks. small and large depositors probably reflects in part the effect on income distribution of a rapidly rising price level. To the extent that increases in incomes were greater, or access to bank credit easier, for the larger deposit hold ers, they were better able to maintain or increase their cash balances. Redemption of non-bank held marketable Government securities, though probably not a large factor in this District, would probably tend to favor the larger depositors who are usually the most important holders of such securities. In the absence of exact data on these factors by size of deposit holder, no precise statements can be made concerning their effect on the difference between small and large deposits. District and national comparisons Although Twelfth District banks created relatively more deposits through loans than did banks in the country as a whole, deposits showed a greater increase nationally both from January 1946 to February 1947 and from Feb ruary 1947 to January 1948. During the former period it was primarily deposits of District manufacturing and mining concerns that did not keep pace with their counter part for the nation. Last year, however, trade and per sonal (including farmers’ ) deposits in the District were the ones that fell behind. It is possible that the creation of the Treasury surplus and its disposal had a relatively more unfavorable effect upon private deposits in the District than in the United States over the past two years. It seems more probable, however, that on balance some deposits have left the Dis trict in payment for goods and services from Eastern suppliers to accomplish the plant expansion and rebuild ing of business and consumer inventories that have oc curred. Last year, one of the important factors affecting the distribution of funds between the District and the rest of the country was the less favorable showing of Western farm income. Cash receipts from farm market ings increased 9 percent in 1947 over 1946 in the Dis trict and 23 percent nationally. According to the deposit ownership survey, farmers’ deposits in the District de clined 3 percent from February 1947 to January 1948, but rose 4 percent in the nation. CHANGES IN BANKS AN D BRANCHES, 1946-1947— TWELFTH DISTRICT h e expansion in population and business w e st e r n activity has brought about a postwar expansion in T banking offices, which reached a new high in 1947. Last year there was a net increase in the total number of banks in the Twelfth District for the first time in many years, and branch banking systems gained the largest number of branches in any year since before the war. Twelve new banks, four members and eight nonmem bers, were established, and seven banks discontinued oper ations during the year. All seven of the banks which dis continued operations during the year were absorbed into branch banking systems. Five independent banks, includ ing one of the 15 largest banks in the District, entered the field of branch banking with the acquisition of one branch. One branch banking system went out of exist ence during the year by the separation of its one branch from the head office. Branch banking systems acquired 44 new branches during the year and discontinued two branches. Member banks added 37 of the new branches and nonmember banks added seven. Of the branches dis- N um ber and T o ta l A sse ts o f a l l B a n k s— T w e lfth D ecem ber 31, 1947 D is tr ic t 1946 and (assets in thousands of dollars) Number 1947 1946 State -All banks--------------------N Assets 1946 1947 7 7 347,560 330,112 California1 ............... . . 208 Idaho ........................ , 48 8 Nevada ................... 207 47 14,025,197 13,853,410 465,388 175,512 453,718 172,319 1,476,002 592,975 1,425,862 583,980 Arizona ................... {-------------------- Member banks---------------- ^ Number 1947 1946 Assets 1947 1946 4 116 4 113 312,787 12,794,730 299,084 12,630,059 26 25 397,218 394,657 6 32 34 6 33 34 161,650 Oregon ................... . . 72 Utah ........................ . . 60 Washington .......... . , 125 124 2,294,984 2,268,037 54 54 1,929,530 158,706 1,311,590 489,489 1,908,392 Twelfth District 523 19,377,618 19,087,438 272 269 17,443,345 17,191,977 . .. 528 8 71 59 1 Includes three out-of-state branches. 1,350,382 497,048 (------------- Nonmember banks------------N Number 1947 1946 Assets 1947 1946 Member bank as percent of all banks assets 1947 1946 31,028 1,223,351 59,061 13,613 90.0 2 34,773 1,230,467 68,170 13,862 40 26 71 38 25 70 125,620 95,927 365,454 114,271 94,491 359,644 91.5 83.8 84.1 91.9 83.8 84.1 256 254 1,934,273 1,895,459 90.0 90.1 3 92 22 3 94 22 2 91.2 85.4 92.1 90.6 91.2 87.0 92.1 44 M ay 1948 FEDERAL RESERVE B A N K OF SA N FRANCISCO continued, one was a member, one a nonmember. The largest increase in the number of banks was in California where three new banking systems came into existence and where a net total of 21 branches was added to bank ing systems. As a result of these changes branch banks continued to gain in total assets relative to independent banks. Total N um ber of B ranch B a n k s — T w elfth 31, 1947 D ecem ber and Number of branches -operated b y - Banks State D is t r ic t 1946 ,— operating branches—>> NonrMember-^rmember-^ 1947 1946 1947 1946 A r iz o n a ........................ California ................... . . Idaho ............................. Nevada ........................ Oregon ........................ Utah ............................. W ashington .............. . . 2 18 5 3 2 3 8 2 17 5 3 2 2 8 1 17 1 15 1 1 1 5 2 4 1 5 2 4 Twelfth District . . , . . 41 39 31 29 NonMember member banks—> ^-banks-^ 1947 1946 1947 1946 301 281 52 32 T o tal A ssets of M em b er a n d N o n m e m b e r B r a n c h B a n k s b y S t a t e s — T w e l f t h D is t r ic t (— 8423 43 16 75 12 109 1127 8243 40 15 70 9 105 1091 42 2 1 5 2 9 39 2 1 5 2 8 66 60 1 Includes 8 branches of Twelfth District banks operating in Eleventh District. 2 Excludes 2 branches of Eleventh District banks operating in Twelfth D is trict. 3 Includes 3 out of state branches. assets of branch banks were $16.1 billion on December 31, 1947 as compared to $15.5 billion on December 31, 1946, an increase in the percentage of branch bank assets to total assets from 81.3 percent to 83.4 percent. Member banks, totaling slightly more than half the banks in the District, held assets at the end of the year totaling $19.3 billion or about 90 percent of all bank assets. The importance of member relative to nonmember banks in terms of both number of banks and combined assets re mained virtually unchanged during the year. D ecem ber 31, 1947 and 1946 Branch bank as percent Nonmember of all bank t-----branch banks— ^ t—assets—N 1947 1946 1947 1946 (in thousands of dollars) State Member t------- branch banks------- N 1947 1946 306,888 11,452,050 318,029 144,768 1,155,776 173,948 1,548,019 293,964 10,957,000 315,746 142,230 1,117,534 137,256 1,524,027 18,456 788,184 19,295 9,639 23,895 7,257 204,347 16,546 757,208 19,132 9,874 28,123 7,299 196,635 93.6 87.3 72.5 88.0 79.9 30.6 76.4 94.1 84.6 73.8 88.3 80.4 24.8 75.9 Twelfth District 15,099,478 14,487,757 1,071,073 1,034,817 83.4 81.3 C a lifo rn ia .......... U t a h .................... W ashington . . M ay 1948 44A M ON TH LY REVIEW BUSINESS INDEXES—TWELFTH DISTRICT (1935-39 averages 100*) I n d u s tr ia l p r o d u c tio n (p h y s ic a l v o lu m e )* Year and m onth P e tr o le u m * L um ber Ad ju ste d U nad ju ste d 1929_ 148 1931. 1932_ 1933_ 1934. 1935_ 1936_ 1937. 1938. 1939_ 1940. 1941. 1942. 1943. 1914. 1915. 1946. 1947. 77 46 62 67 83 106 113 R e fin e d U nad ju ste d U nad ju ste d 121 140 140 133 138 108 118 139 104 93 93 96 103 118 129 135 131 138 193 168 140 134 127 123 140 154 163 159 160 158 172 175 194 226 243 219 239 112 1930_ C rude 88 110 120 95 78 74 72 73 86 W h eat flo u r C em en t Ad ju ste d U nad ju ste d 110 92 114 124 164 194 160 128 131 165 193 137 137 138 139 139 139 139 140 141 140 231 234 243 240 236 254 254 247 246 241 207 193 193 186 184 185 193 187 205 215 200 1948 January-_ February. M arch ___ 174 189 157 116 133 137 141 141 142 248 251 243 218 207 216 188 188 199 190 196 195 202 195 201 207 203 199 C a r lo a d in g s (n u m b e r )6 M e r c h a n d is e and m is c e lla n e o u s T o ta l Ad ju s te d U nad ju ste d Ad ju ste d 135 116 91 70 70 81 88 103 109 96 104 110 127 137 133 140 134 135 142 1929________ ______ 1930______________ 1931______________ 1932______________ 1933______________ 1934______________ 1935______________ 1936______________ 1937______________ 1938________ ______ 1939______________ 1940______________ 1941______________ 1942______________ 1943______________ 1944..... ........... ......... 1945______________ 1946________ ______ 1947________ ______ U nad ju s te d 95 94 96 99 96 107 103 103 104 115 119 132 128 133 68 112 123 134 150 150 139 157 153 151 146 133 Ad ju ste d 100 101 89 88 117 142 132 129 131 125 130 130 139 153 178 E le c t r ic p o w e r 106 96 74 48 54 70 1947 M arch_____ A p r il______ M a y ______ J u n e ______ July-----------A u g u s t-----September . October____ N ovem ber.. December _. Y ear and m o n th U nad ju ste d U nad ju ste d C a lifo r n ia Adju ste d Ad ju ste d U nad ju ste d 162 124 85 55 63 71 84 105 111 96 107 118 136 153 145 146 124 129 147 120 112 95 78 75 86 91 103 108 96 102 105 123 128 126 138 140 140 140 Ad ju ste d 5 U nad ju ste d 111 100 112 93 73 54 53 64 78 96 115 136 167 214 231 219 219 256 96 104 118 155 230 306 295 229 175 184 134 224 460 705 694 497 344r 401 102 112 122 101 110 141 133 129 138 126 125 123 133 133 116 252 254 251 251 252 252 259 260 263 275 248 252 253 257 262 263 259 253 258 271 185r 184 183 182 181 183 184 187 188r 188 184r 184 183 182 181 183 185 187 188 188 387 390 392 394 397 407 413 419 421 423 389 392 394 396 392 410 412 423 420 423 114 104 278 283 274 275 278 271 186 186 186 186 185 185 418 417 406 413 415 408 101 D e p t, sto r e s to c k s (v a lu e )8 C a li fo r n ia P a c if ic N o r th w est U ta h & So. Id ah o Ad ju ste d Ad ju ste d Ad ju ste d 112 104 92 69 66 74 86 99 106 101 109 119 139 171 203 223 247 305 330 10 4 99 91 70 67 73 86 98 105 101 110 120 138 164 196 221 225 307 329 140 123 101 72 68 77 86 100 105 100 109 118 147 189 219 232 252 312 336 97 89 83 61 64 77 89 100 106 99 106 115 135 177 232 250 280 348 351 D is tr ic t Ad ju ste d U nad ju ste d 83 84 82 73 73 79 85 98 105 D e p a r tm e n t s to r e s a le s (v a lu e )2 F a r m , fo r e st, a n d m in e r a l p r o d u c ts7 F a cto ry p a y r o lls* T o ta l m a n u f a c t u r in g e m p lo y m e n t4 U nad ju ste d R e ta il fo o d p r ic e s ® D is t r ic t Ad ju ste d U nad ju ste d U nad ju ste d 134 127 110 86 78 83 88 96 108 101 107 114 137 190 174 178 182 235 295 132.0 124^8 104^0 8 9 .8 86^8 93 2 9 9 1q 10 0 ,3 104^5 99*0 9 6 .9 9 7 .6 107.9 130*9 143 4 14211 1463 167 4 200.3 1947 M arch ______________ A p r il_______________ M a y ________________ J u n e ________________ July — -------- ----------A u g u s t_____________ Septem ber-------------October_____________ November__________ December__________ 144 147 138 141 141 141 139 141 143 144 133 142 136 150 151 151 151 155 139 129 141 138 139 142 139 142 138 138 137 137 127 130 130 150 150 153 151 156 137 126 151 163 137 141 145 140 142 148 153 156 144 166 147 151 153 150 152 155 143 134 319 320 325 330 327 348 336 333 339 352 300 302 302 299 278 308 336 343 410 554 316 320 325 332 328 355 338 331 339 357 325 321 332 333 332 345 340 348 344 353 366 355 340 343 350 361 341 343 360 358 331 307 285 282 270 248 257 287 319 342 308 304 296 287 286 273 290 318 338 280 1 96.6 1 97.8 197.3 1 94.8 1 96.5 197.9 2 0 6 .6 2 0 4 .8 209.4 21 3 .0 1948 January. .............. ...... February. ________ M arch____ __ _ _ _ 141 130 131 130 124 121 142 137 130 132 128 117 141 127 134 126 119 128 339 319 331 274 288 319 336 329 334 349 303r 332 380 321 331 352 366 380 310 321 353 21 5 .4 2 1 3 .0 2 1 1 .6 1 The terms “ adjusted” and “ unadjusted” refer to adjustment of monthly figures for seasonal variation. Excepting department store statistics, all indexes are based upon data from outside sources, as follows: Lumber, various lumber trade associations; Petroleum and Cement, U.S. Bureau of Mines; W heat flour, U.S. Bureau of the Census; Electric power, Federal Power Commission; Manufacturing employment, U .S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and cooperating state agen cies; Factory payrolls, California State Division of Labor Statistics and Research; Retail food prices, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; and Carloadings, various railroads and railroad associations. 5 Daily average. * 1923-25 daily average = 100. 4 Excludes fish, fruit and vegetable canning. Factory payrolls index covers wage earners only. 5 Revised series. 6 Revised series. Seasonal factors for recent years revised, and base shifted from 1923-25 to 1935-39. 7 Grain and grain products, livestock, forest products, coal and coke, and ore. 8 A t retail, end of month or end of year. 9 Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Seattle indexes combined. p— preliminary. r— revised. 44B M ay 1948 FEDERAL RESERVE B A N K OF SA N FRAN CISCO BANKING AND CREDIT STATISTICS—TWELFTH DISTRICT (amounts in millions of dollars) C o n d it io n it e m s o f a ll m e m b e r b a n k s 1 Year and m onth L o a n s a n d d is c o u n ts C o m l., in d . & a g r ie . T o ta l 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 2,239 2,218 1,898 1,570 1,486 1,469 1,537 1,682 1,871 1,869 1,967 2,130 2,451 2,170 2,106 2,254 2,663 4,068 5,363 1947 April M ay June July August September October November December 4,479 4,558 4,658 4,755 4,879 4,997 5,158 5,240 5,363 1948 January February March April 5,413 5,467 5,510 5,509 F o r p u r c h ., c a r r y ’g s e c s . In v e stm e n ts R eal esta te A ll o t h e r U . S . G o v ’t s e c u r it ie s 647 721 711 635 668 670 662 686 730 798 864 931 663 664 735 933 870 934 956 1,103 1,882 2,338 82 76 65 59 51 62 184 343 195 121 974 899 885 908 1,431 2,153 2,047 134 1,828 649 2,338 121 2,153 750 327 362 399 460 275 1,000 211 228 309 560 750 A ll o t h e r s e c u r it ie s D em and d e p o s it s a d j u s t e d 2«3 495 467 547 601 720 1,064 1,275 1,334 1,270 1,323 1,450 1,482 1,738 3,630 6,235 8,263 10,450 8,426 7,243 458 561 560 528 510 575 587 614 498 486 524 590 541 538 557 698 795 908 872 1.389 1,791 1,740 1,781 1,983 2.390 2,893 4,356 5,998 6,950 8,203 8,821 8,928 7,677 7,662 7,370 7,375 7,353 7,364 7.361 7.361 7,243 876 862 871 874 871 889 896 884 872 7,264 7,021 6,945 6,943 848 833 846 854 1,234 1,158 984 840 951 1,201 T im e d e p o s it s (e x c e p t U .S . G o v ’t) * 1,776 1,915 1,667 1,515 1,453 1,759 2,006 2,078 2,164 2,212 U .S . G o v ’t d e p o s it s 3 36 49 99 148 233 228 167 96 90 127 118 2,263 2,351 2,417 2,603 3,197 4,127 5,194 5,781 5,988 144 307 842 1,442 2,050 303 148 8,334 8,260 8,297 8,366 8,462 8,600 8,722 8,797 8,928r 5,837 5,851 5.908 5,888 5,887 5.909 5,949 5,907 5,988 286 235 103 148 208 216 192 205 127 8,854 8,495 8,452 8,461 6,006 6,048 6,029 6,004 139 190 246 250 68 M e m b e r b a n k re serv e s a n d r e la te d it e m s 4 Y ear and m o n th R eserv e b a n k c r e d it5 C o m m e r c ia l o p e r a t io n s 8 T reasu ry o p e r a t io n s 5 C o in a n d c u r r e n c y in c ir c u la t io n F .R . n o t e s o f F .R .B . o f S .F . T o ta l 6 16 + 48 + 30 + 18 4 + 14 + 38 + 3 20 + 31 + 96 + + 227 643 + + 708 + 789 + 545 326 — 206 189 186 231 227 213 211 280 335 343 361 388 493 700 1,279 1,937 2,699 3,219 2,871 2,639 175 183 147 142 185 242 287 479 549 565 584 754 930 1,232 1,462 1,706 2,033 2,094 2,202 171 180 154 135 142 172 201 351 470 418 459 515 720 1,025 1,343 1,598 1,878 2,051 2,085 4 5 4 8 37 84 100 119 70 142 138 257 245 262 103 104 136 59 70 146 126 97 68 63 72 87 102 111 98 102 110 134 165 211 237 260 298 326 18 10 13 23 23 10 16 3 18 2,716 2,714 2,695 2,669 2,685 2,675 2,656 2,653 2,639 1,997 1,993 1,992 1,963 2,078 2,095 2,137 2,130 2,202 1,934 1,934 1,944 1,956 1,985 2,028 2,046 2,059 2,085 63 59 51 60 62 80 77 65 70 309 297 322 305 322 325 346 344 365 113 2 37 17 2,541 2,532 2,497 2,477 2,113 2,045 2,066 2,048 2,086 2,037 2,001 1,998 83 57 64 61 352 354 347 353 T o ta l5 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1947 April M ay June July August September October November December 1948 January February March April _ — + — — + — — + + + + + + + — + — — — + + + + 34 16 21 42 2 7 2 6 1 3 2 2 4 107 214 98 76 9 302 0 — _ — — — — — — — __ — — -1 -3 -3 -3 -1 2 34 21 234 48 87 23 4 25 — — — 14 20 49 9 + + + — + — - 53 154 175 110 198 163 227 90 240 192 148 596 ,980 ,751 ,534 ,743 ,607 443 23 89 154 234 150 257 + 219 + 454 + 157 + 276 + 245 + 420 + 1 ,000 + 2 ,826 + 4 ,486 + 4 ,483 + 4 ,682 + 1 ,329 + 630 + + + + + + 69 14 41 213 78 85 39 0 5 + + 48 153 29 75 — — — + + + + + + + 47 49 7 381 124 172 35 33 49 253 244 19 29 B a n k d e b it s in d e x 31 c it ie s 7 R eserves1 _ — + — — — — + — — — R e q u ir e d E xcess U n a d ju sted 1 Annual figures are as of end of year; monthly figures are as of last Wednesday in month or, where applicable, as of call report date. • Demand deposits, excluding interbank and U.S. G ov’t deposits, less cash items in process of collection. • M onthly data partly estimated. 4 End of year and end of month figures. 5 Changes only. • Total reserves are as of end of year or month. Required and excess: monthly figures are daily averages, annual figures are December daily averages. 7 Debits to total deposit accounts, excluding interbank deposits. 1935-39 daily average = 100. p—*-preliminary. r— revised.