The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
MomÎ mm R eview FEDERAL RESERVE B A N K OF S A N F R A N C I S C O M A Y 1947 RETAIL CREDIT SURVEY, 1946— TWELFTH DISTRICT credit during 1946 increased substantially in dollar volume for nine lines of retail trade in the Twelfth Federal Reserve District. This rise resulted from an increased flow of goods, from relaxation of credit re strictions under Regulation W , and from a higher level of prices. As a ratio to total sales, however, increases in credit sales were smaller than might have been expected. At the same time inventories and accounts receivable of retail establishments increased substantially over 1945. Despite the need for increased funds to finance the expan sion of inventories and to carry a larger amount of ac counts receivable, the liquidity position of retailers in most lines in the Twelfth Federal Reserve District did not decline significantly. e t a il R Increase in total sales In 1946, especially during the latter part of the year, deliveries of consumer goods reached a high level, with durable goods becoming available in substantial quanti ties. This greater availability of merchandise, combined with a high level of income and a large backlog of spend able funds in consumers' hands, resulted in a considerable expansion of retail sales. The increase was smallest — roughly ten percent— for men’s clothing stores and women’s apparel stores, but sales doubled in household appliance stores and auto tire and accessory stores. Sales by type of payment The ratio of cash sales to total sales declined a little during 1946 for seven of the nine groups of stores sur veyed. This drop, although slight, reverses the trend of the war and postwar period. As war production ex panded, higher consumer incomes, plus controlled prices and fewer consumer goods made possible a larger pro portion of cash sales. During 1946, on the other hand, consumer goods became more widely available, and prices rose faster than consumer incomes. Nevertheless, credit sales did not rise as much as might have been expected in view of higher prices and the greater supply of con sumer goods and services; and the cash sales ratio re mained well above prewar levels. For two of the lines surveyed, in fact— automobile dealers and automobile tire and accessory stores— the cash sales ratio rose during; 1946. In household appliances, hardware, and jewelry stores, however— three of the four lines where less than half of the 1946 sales were for cash— the relative decline in cash sales was fairly pronounced. For all lines except men’s clothing stores, where in stalment sales declined, the dollar volume of instalment sales was considerably greater in 1946 than in 1945. In four lines the ratio of instalment sales to total sales also increased. In five lines, however, regular charge sales increased more than instalment sales. Receivables In all types of stores accounts receivable increased substantially during 1946. For the most part this reflected a growing volume of business rather than markedly reduced collections. A slight drop in collection ratios was evident in department stores, furniture stores, men’s; clothing stores, jewelry stores, and women’s apparel stores. Instalment receivables showed a larger dollar increase for all lines (except men’s clothing stores) than did regular charge receivables. This was true despite the fact that in some lines the rate of increase for regular charge; sales was greater than the rate for instalment sales, T a b l e 1— R e t a i l S a l e s b y T y p e o f P a y m e n t — T w e l f t h D i s t r i c t 1946 compared with 1945 Kind of Store Automobile d e a le rs..................................................... D ep a rtm en t........................................... F u rn itu re........................................................................ Hardware .............................................. Household appliance ............................................... Jewelry .................................................. M en’s clothing .................................... Number of Stores Reporting 76 87 19 f------------ Cash Sales------ — -\ Percent Change + 163 + 58 + 7 + 34 +- 15 +- 58 + 13 4— 3 8 Ratio to Total Sales 1946 1945 57 73 58 28 45 46 44 65 52 44 71 65 30 52 59 53 71 60 ,— Regular Charge Sales—s Ratio to Percent Total Sales Change 1946 1945 ++ + +- 69 28 44 66 57 + 160 33 38 4 - 29 + + + 21 21 39 40 52 33 4 34 47 25 25 33 36 45 25 4 28 39 t------ Instal ment S a les------^ Percent Change + 51 + 133 +• 59 + 40 32 + 161 63 — 4 + + + 13 Ratio to Total Sales 1946 1945, 22 6 3 32 3 21 52 1 1 31 4- a: 34 3;16. 43 > I. k 46 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO M ay 1947 T a b l e 2 — A c c o u n t s R e c e iv a b l e o f R e t a i l E s t a b l i s h m e n t s — T w e l f t h D is t r ic t 1946 compared with 194? Number of Stores Reporting Kind of Store Autom obile d e a le r s................................ Auto tire & a c c e s s o r y ........................ Department .............................................. F u r n itu r e ................................................... H a r d w a r e ................................................... Household appliance ........................... J e w e lr y ........................................................ M en’s clothing ....................................... W o m e n ’s a p p a r e l.................................. ........................... Percent Change in Total Receivables + 54 + 45 + 80 + 49 + 55 +147 + 87 + 65 4 - 43 23 Inventories For the first time since this survey began in 1942, all inventories increased substantially. Their dollar volume reached an all-time high in department and furniture stores. Because most inventories increased more rapidly than sales, most types of stores showed a reduced turn over ratio, though turnover for all lines still remained well above prewar levels. During 1945 most retail lines had very small supplies of goods on hand. Even if a merchant had substantial over-all supplies, some or many of his departments would be understocked. Durable T a b l e 3— R e t a i l S a l e s a n d I n v e n t o r ie s — T w e l f t h D is t r ic t 1946 compared with 194 5 Number Percent of Stores Change in Reporting Total Sales Kind of Store 107 + 110 Automobile dealers . . . . . 247 +* 62 Auto tire & accessory. . . 107 + - 21 Department ................... 12 2 + 48 Furniture ........................ 30 + 35 Hardware ........................ Household appliance . 35 + 10 1 54 + 26 Jewelry ............................. 62 M en ’s c lo t h in g ............... + 14 39 W o m en ’s apparel . . . . + 9 Percent Change in Inventories at Retail + 64 + 121 + 83 + 88 + 40 + 85 + 27 + 89 + 69 Inventory Turnover 1 1945 1946 8.8 6.8 2.7 4.7 2.9 3.6 4.0 3.6 7.1 3.7 3.7 3.7 2 .1 2 .1 4.4 5.3 8.2 7.3 1 Sales during year divided by inventories at retail at the end of the year. goods were almost completely absent, and supplies of the better soft goods were scanty. Such items, when deliv ered, sold out almost immediately and caused little or no rise in inventories. Accordingly, turnover was unusually high. During 1946, however, goods flowed to retail out lets in sufficient quantity to create a rising volume of sales and also permit significant inventory accumulation, so that turnover rates were reduced. Most types of stores reported decreased turnover ratios. For automobile dealers and household appliance stores they increased, however; such merchandise, though be coming available in greater quantity, was sold almost at r-Regular Charge Receivables— Ratio to Total Percent Receivables Change 1945 1946 +48 44 64 90 25 91 48 +13 +79 +43 +53 +77 +18 +66 +42 t------- Instalment Receivables-------N Percent Change 46 83 90 25 92 67 6 10 98 97 98 98 Ratio to Total Receivables 1946 1945 + 59 +196 + 82 + 50 + 72 +288 + 94 + 40 + 52 56 36 54 17 10 10 75 9 52 94 75 8 33 90 2 2 2 3 once. Despite the inventory increases experienced, in terms of sales the supply was lower than at the end of 1945. Jewelry stores reported no change in turnover. Financial condition Larger inventories and accounts receivable required increased funds to finance retail operations during 1946. Three lines— department stores, household appliance stores, and women’s apparel stores— were not only able to meet the working capital expansion required but also improved their liquidity position over 1945. This is evi dent from the increased ratios of current assets to current liabilities reported by these store groups. In order to meet the expansion in inventories and receivables, five lines increased their borrowing from banks and their trade payables; the current assets-current liabilities ratio was therefore reduced. Automobile dealers maintained the same liquidity ratio in 1946 as in 1945. Even where the ratio of current assets to current lia bilities was reduced, changes were small except for auto mobile tire and accessory stores. From this it would ap pear that most retailers in the lines included in this survey had a strong financial position at the end of 1946. T a b l e 4 — C u r r e n t A sse t s a n d L ia b il it ie s of R e t a il E s t a b l i s h m e n t s — T w e l f t h D is t r ic t 1946 compared with 1945 Kind of Store Percent Number Change of Stores in Current Reporting Assets Automobile dealers . .. Auto tire & accessory Department ............... Furniture ................... Hardware .................... . Household appliance Jewelry .......................... M en’s c lo t h in g .......... W om en ’s apparel . . . 107 202 40 76 28 28 52 26 28 +61 +55 + 14 +25 + 14 +47 *+21 +15 — 12 Percent Ratio of Change Current Assets to in Current Current Liabilities l Liabilities 1946 1945 + 59 + 182 + 7 + 64 + 24 + 42 + 32 + 19 — 25 2.5 2.2 2.5 4.1 2.8 3.0 4.0 4.4 5.0 2.3 4.5 5.2 4.8 4.8 2.5 4.7 2 .1 1.8 1 Y ear-end. THE FRUIT A N D VEGETABLE C A N N IN G INDUSTRY, 1946-47 — TWELFTH DISTRICT o f the few major industries of the District that has continued its war-time expansion is the process ing of fruits and vegetables. Dehydration, which was given considerable impetus by the war, has declined to small proportions except in the case of dried fruits. Can ning, however, appears to have retained a considerable part of the stimulus given it during the war years by the demands of the armed services for large quantities of n e O food in compact and concentrated form. In spite of short ages of labor and of tin plate, the canning industry of the District has enlarged its operations in practically every year since 1940, and has put up packs limited only by the availability of raw materials and supplies. Since the war, the necessity of building up depleted inventories and restocking the normal channels of distri bution has provided a new impetus to activity. Estab M ay 1947 lished concerns have expended considerable sums in enlarging, mechanizing, and modernizing their plants, and newTfirms have entered the industry. This additional capital investment and the resulting increased competition have broadened both the commercial and the physical basis of the industry. The total estimated output of each of the principal canned fruit and vegetable items in the four important producing states of the District for the years 1943 to 1946 is shown in the accompanying table : P r o d u c t io n o f C a n n e d F r u i t s a n d V e g e t a b l e s i n C a l i f o r n i a , O regon, U t a h , a n d W a s h in g t o n , The 1946 season highly successful The fruit and vegetable canning industry of the District experienced in 1946 one of the busiest and most profitable seasons in its history. Favorable weather resulted in unusually large harvests of most fruits and vegetables. Greater warehouse capacity for storage and control of raw materials, expanded manufacturing facilities, in creased plant mechanization, and improved labor supply, all contributed to the large packs. New high records were established for a number of staple products as well as for the fruit and vegetable packs as a whole. Good prices were paid to the growers and a very large payroll was disbursed to cannery workers. Threatened labor difficul ties did not materialize, at least not on a scale sufficient to hamper the operations of canneries seriously. The total 1946 production of canned fruits and vege tables reported by trade sources in California, Oregon, Washington and Utah, exclusive of citrus products, olives, and some minor specialties, was almost 113 million cases. In 1944, the previous record year, close to 83 mil lion cases were reported, The record of the past five seasons for this group of states was as follows (in million cases) : Canned fruit and berries.................... Canned vegetables................................ 1942 35.9 37.9 1943 28.7 42.2 1944 37.2 45.6 1945 34.0 45.4 1946 52.8 60.2 Total (rounded) .......................... 73.7 70.9 82.7 79,3 113.0 Total production during the war years, 1942-1945. averaged about 76 million cases per year, compared with an average of around 45 or 46 million cases during the decade 1931-1940. The output of canned fruits increased by roughly 25 percent, rising from an average of about 27 million cases per year during the thirties to about 34 million cases in the war years. The production of canned vegetables more than doubled, from an average of about 19 million cases per year during the 1931-1940 period to about 43 million cases in 1942-1945. New records sef last year for many products New high records were established in 1946 for peaches, apricots, mixed fruits, prunes, and cherries, among the canned fruits, and for asparagus and tomato products among the vegetables. The pear and canned pea packs in Oregon and Washington, and the California spinach pack, were also very large by recent standards. The out standing gain, however, was in tomatoes and tomato products; the total pack aggregated nearly 35 million cases in 1946, as compared with packs of 19 to 24 million cases during the years from 1942 to 1945. Over threefourths of the entire California vegetable pack of some 41.5 million cases in 1946 consisted of tomatoes and tomato products in one form or another. 47 M O N T H L Y REVIEW 1943-46 1946 1945 1944 Fruit packs1 Peaches ................................ Apricots ............................... Fruit cocktail ................... Pears .................................... Prunes .................................. Cherries ............................... Other fruits and berries. 19,243 10,595 7,752 5,256 3,450 1,852 3,288 13,198 4,105 6,035 4,465 1,606 1,477 2,094 13,173 7,763 6,167 4,461 1,117 1,008 2,380 1943 11,081 1,179 5,621 4,572 1,760 1,037 2,400 Vegetable packs2 Tomatoes and tomato products ........................... Peas ...................................... Asparagus ........................... Spinach ................................ String beans ...................... Other v e g eta b les............... 34,544 9,701 2,990 3,151 2,757 7,045 23,453 8,052 2,729 2,651 2,626 5,938 24,032 8,758 2,782 2.726 2,863 4,413 20,500 9,968 2,301 2,225 3,298 3,905 1 California data for all years, and Oregon and W ashington data for 1945 and 1946, converted to basis 24 N o. 2 % cans. Other data represent actual cases, all grades and sizes. 2 Actual cases, all grades and sizes. Source: Canners League of California and W estern Canner and Packer. National production has also risen sharply Producing areas other than the Twelfth District have also greatly increased their output of canned food prod ucts in recent years. For the country as a whole, the production of canned fruit and vegetable juices has ex panded phenomenally, rising steadily from a level of about 15 million cases in 1934 to almost 115 million in 1946. The output of canned fruits, including pineapple and grapefruit, rose from about 40 million cases in 1934 to 60 million in 1941 and reached 84 million in 1946. The seasonal vegetable pack has experienced greater fluctua tion: the national output for 1934 was about 75 million cases, and the peak was attained in 1942 with nearly 170 million cases; the 1946 pack was 150 million cases, second only to that of 1942. The pack of nonseasonal vegetable products, such as dry beans, soups, catsups, and sauces, has grown steadily, from about 62 million cases in 1934 to 146 million in 1946. The estimated grand total for all canned fruit and vegetable products, including baby foods and other spe cialties, increased from below 200 million cases in 1934 to nearly 400 million in 1944. The output reached 440 million cases in 1945 and in 1946 soared to 513 million cases. 1946 packs quickly marketed Canners’ stocks of fruits and vegetables at the begin ning of the 1946 season, carried over from previous packs, were generally low and in some cases virtually non existent. Distributors' inventories, both wholesale and retail, were also at a relatively low level, and it is probable that household packs of canned fruit, in particular, were scanty because of the limited supplies of sugar available for home canning. In these circumstances a brisk demand by distributors quickly absorbed a large proportion of the new 1946 packs. Distributors bought heavily of practically all District canned products, in spite of rela 48 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK tively high prices. Although some shipping delays were occasioned by the maritime strikes during the fall of 1946 and by persistent shortages of freight cars, packing cases, and labels, the great bulk of the new packs, particularly of the better grades, rapidly moved into the channels of distribution. Only in the case of a few products, involving chiefly packs of distinctly inferior quality, have the canners experienced any major problem of sales resistance. According to trade reports, the California apricot pack is an instance where an exceptionally large pack was put up last year with perhaps too little attention by some canners to quality of product. The result was to slow down somewhat the rate of market absorption. Prices to date have held up Probably more serious as an element in sales resistance has been the price factor. Ceiling prices of many canned goods were increased by OP A during the 1946 canning season to take account of higher labor and material costs. With the final lapse of price controls in October and November, prices of many fruit and vegetable products were advanced sharply, though with considerable irregu larity as between different canners. In a number of instances individual canners set their prices on particular products so high as to provoke resistance and protest by both distributors and consumers. Leading concerns, how ever, acted with greater restraint. In spite of the apprehensions of the industry as to the ability of the market to absorb the very large packs of last year, prices of most canned goods have held up reasonably well. Only in the citrus juice and competitive tomato juice lines, where exceptionally large quantities were packed, has there been any serious market weak ness. The situation has created uneasiness, however, and there is frequent reference to the disproportionate quan tity of unknown labels and off-grade brands that tend to clog the market. Generally speaking, trade margins remain at a high level, and distributors who had over bought seem unwilling to adjust themselves to changing conditions. These two factors, according to cannery OF SAN FRANCISCO M ay 1947 spokesmen, have also tended to slow’ down sales and to create a market of a hand-to-mouth character. The 1947 season The industry is facing the new season in a much more cautious frame of mind than a year ago, and the volume of the new packs promises to be smaller than last season. In spite of a very heavy movement of canned goods into consumption, considerable stocks in jobbers' and retail ers' hands apparently still remain to be sold. The cam paign against high retail prices and high living costs is apparently having some effect in unsettling the price structure of the industry, or at least in inducing an attitude of caution on the part of both the canners and the distributors. Contracted acreage is apparently lower for 1947 than it wras last year, and instances have been reported of canners, particularly of tomatoes, buying up their contracts with growers. Canners generally agree that all elements in the in dustry must cooperate to bring prices down. This wTould be sought through lower prices to growers, efforts to secure greater efficiency in cannery operations, perhaps some reductions in canners' profit margins, and finally a reduction in distributors' mark-ups. There has already been some reduction, compared with last year, in canners' opening prices on asparagus and spinach. Smaller packs of both have been put up in California this year. The new apricot pack will certainly be smaller, and the pear pack probably smaller, than in 1946. It is too early in the season to forecast the output of peaches, cherries, and mixed fruit, or of tomatoes and tomato products. Contributing to reduced packs this season are higher costs of labor and supplies, as well as a potential shortage of cans. A new cannery wage agreement awaits final ratification, but sharply increased rates for most labor classifications are clearly indicated. Sugar for canning syrup will be more abundant but will cost more, and so will containers, labels, and cases. Further mechanization and improved cannery efficiency, which have already made notable progress in recent years, are being counted on to offset these rising cost trends. THE FROZEN FOOD INDUSTRY— TWELFTH DISTRICT l e a s t one other branch of the food processing in. dustry has in recent years experienced an even larger expansion, relatively, than the canned goods industry. This is the quick freezing of fresh fruits and vegetables for distribution to the consumer in frozen form. While the freezing of berries in bulk has long been practiced in the Pacific Northwest, it is only in comparatively recent years that the packing of frozen foods for retail distribu tion has made much headway. As recently as 1941 there were less than a dozen processors of quick frozen foods in California, while last season nearly 100 were said to ■be in operation in that state. About one-third of the entire national pack of frozen 'vegetables is normally represented by peas, which to t A gether with lima and string beans, spinach, and corn, account for nearly three-fourths of the total output of frozen vegetables in most years. Roughly the same pro portion of the total frozen fruit pack is represented by strawberries, apples and apple sauce, cherries, raspber ries, blackberries, peaches, and apricots, although consid erable fluctuation occurs from year to year among these individual products. First place was long held by strawrberries; peaches took first place in 1945, cherries in 1946. Industry growth has been extremely rapid Stimulated by high prices and the absence of rationing during the war, the processing of most frozen foods grew rapidly. The estimated annual output of all frozen fruits M ay 1947 M O N T H L Y REVIEW and vegetables in the United States since 1931 has been as follows (in million pounds) : Year 1931-35 a v e r a g e ........................... 1936-40 average ........................... 1941 ................................................... 1942 ................................................... 1943 ................................................... 1944 ................................................... 1945 ................................................... 1946 ................................................... Fruits ......................................... ......................................... ......................................... ......................................... ......................................... ......................................... ......................................... 138 210 226 266 337 438 523 Vegetables 41 802 107 163 237 233 308 450 1 1933-36 average. 2 1937-40 average. Source : Western Canner and Packer and National Association of Frozen Food Packers. The expansion of output during the past year or two appears to have been almost too rapid. There is consid erable evidence that the large packs of 1946 in particular exceeded the capacity of the market to absorb them, with resulting distress to many of the processors. Apparently the industry has suffered from the excessive zeal of many newcomers who lacked adequate technical and commer cial experience. Trade reports indicate that some of these newcomers have not paid enough attention to safeguard ing the quality of their products or to developing sound methods of merchandising. Partly in consequence of these factors, and partly because of temporary shortages of sugar, shortening, and other materials, a glut of frozen fruits intended for industrial and institutional outlets occurred in 1946. A period of more or less forced liquida tion followed, both for the processors of these products and for those of certain frozen vegetables who had also overshot the market. Regional output important in national total The growth of the frozen food industry has been much more rapid in the West than in other parts of the country. Six western states— California, Oregon, Washington, Utah, Idaho and Colorado— accounted for about one-half of the total pack of frozen fruits in 1942 and for nearly three-fourths of the total in 1945. There was some re trenchment in the West in 1946 as the important Cali fornia packs of peaches, apricots, and apples, were sharply reduced below those of 1945. Nevertheless, the three Pacific Coast states and Utah processed nearly one-half the entire national frozen fruit pack in 1946. In frozen vegetables, the proportion of the total pack put up in the six western states increased from about 40 percent in 1942 to around 53 percent in 1944 and 1945. California processed very large packs of green vegetables in 1945 and even larger packs in 1946. In the latter year the Pacific Coast states and Utah accounted for close to three-fifths of the total national output of frozen vege tables. The market uses frozen foods packed in various sizes The figures cited above on gross frozen food packs are misleading in one important respect, in that they give no indication of the relative quantities packed in various sizes, or of the character of the market for various frozen 49 food products. A very considerable proportion, particu larly of frozen fruits, is normally packed in large contain ers designed for industrial or institutional users. Trade reports indicate that roughly 75 percent of all frozen food packers sell their entire output to such users. In recent years especially, large quantities of apples, apricots, and peaches, as well as berries, have been put up in barrel units to preserve them temporarily until sugar was avail able for further processing. According to the figures of the National Association of Frozen Food Packers, the proportion of the entire frozen fruit packs of the years 1942 to 1945 packed in sizes above 10 pounds ran from 68 to 84 percent; in three of these years the pack in barrel units ran from 30 to 40 percent of the total. In the case of frozen vegetables, the proportion packed in containers of larger than 10 pounds capacity varied from about one-quarter to one-sixth of the total pack. The trend, however, especially in the case of vegetables, is definitely towards a greater proportion of the pack put up in smaller sizes designed for retail distribution to the ultimate consumer. Growing competition between frozen foods and canned goods Indications have recently appeared that the fruit and vegetable canning industry of the Pacific Coast region is beginning to be concerned about potential competition from the frozen food industry. The price differential was often sufficiently wide in the past to justify the assertion that the canning and the freezing industries catered to two distinct types of demand. That for frozen foods was a semi-luxury market, relatively indifferent to price; the other was chiefly interested in the convenience and variety of canned foods compared with fresh, and was somewhat more alert to price considerations. However accurate this description may have been in the past, the rapidly chang ing conditions of recent years are tending to wipe out the distinction and to bring the two industries into sharper competition. As improved methods of freezing and pack aging are developed, with resulting economies of opera tion, as distributing costs are reduced, and as more retail outlets are equipped for handling frozen foods, the scope of competition will tend to grow'. The recent threat of higher transcontinental and inter coastal freight rates on canned goods, together with other advancing costs, has led spokesmen for the canning indus try of the Pacific Coast region to indicate that some of its products may soon begin to find the competition offered by frozen foods more serious in certain areas than they were previously inclined to concede. Of course, the total output of canned fruits and vegetables is still far greater than that of frozen foods. Increasingly, however, these two branches of the food industry are likely to find their markets overlapping, and it is not unlikely that one consequence will be a considerable degree of structural integration between them. 50 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO M ay 1947 BUSINESS INDEXES—TWELFTH DISTRICT 1935-39 Average=1001 In d u stria l pro d u ction (ph ysical volum e)* Fa ctory e m p lo y m e n t 4 Fa ctory p a yrolls 4 Petroleum * Y e ar an d m o n th Lum ber Ad ju s te d 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 U nad ju s te d C rude R efined U nad ju s te d U nad ju s te d 148 112 77 46 62 67 83 106 113 88 110 120 140 140 133 138 108 118 121 95 78 74 72 73 86 89 99 104 93 93 96 103 118 129 135 131 193 168 140 134 127 123 140 154 163 159 160 158 172 175 194 226 243 219 C em en t* Ad ju s te d W h e a t flou r 3 U nad ju s te d Ad ju s te d 107 93 71 46 53 67 64 114 109 88 110 121 159 189 154 124 127 160 U nad ju s te d Electric pow er Ad ju s te d 115 107 110 98 97 106 113 109 114 111 123 118 120 120 132 136 152 147 U nad ju s te d C aliforn ia Ad ju s te d 83 84 82 73 73 79 85 96 105 102 112 122 136 167 214 231 219 219 Unad ju s te d C a lifo rn ia Ad ju s te d 100 86 73 61 66 79 87 99 112 98 104 122 173 270 363 335 246 177 U nad ju ste d 111 93 73 54 53 64 78 96 115 101 110 134 224 460 705 694 497 339 1946 April M ay June July August September October November December 111 111 132 107 113 120 122 128 133 114 129 152 120 139 139 133 122 100 131 131 132 132 131 131 131 132 133 210 222 219 228 234 222 229 227 221 160 158 149 155 158 167 146 171 223 168 165 169 169 176 177 169 171 165 153 150 167 124 136 129 130 133 166 135 132 147 109 136 154 154 146 166 211 210 212 213 222 227 236 237 243 209 212 216 222 231 227 229 232 240 170 176 179 180 184 184 187 192 192 170 176 179 180 185 185 188 193 193 321 333 341 345 362 360 372 372 387 321 333r 342 345 364 361 375 373 388 1947 January February March April M ay 155 172 143 132 130 106 121 124 135 151 134 136 137 137 219 227 255 259 229 183 185 161 163 186 174 162 165 173 158 174 162 162 153 179 250 249 252 254 246 244 248 252 194 192 193 192 191 191 192 192 386 387 390 392 379 384 389 392 C arload in £s (n u m b e r ) 3 Y e ar an d m o n th M erch an d ise an d m iscella n eo u s T o ta l Ad ju ste d U nad ju s te d Ad ju s te d 112 1029 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 66 72 85 90 79 85 90 105 113 109 115 1947 January February March April M ay 136 134 117 120 112 103 108 122 124 118 126 128 112 107 108 111 109 117 112 Ad ju s te d 90 96 99 116 121 119 130 131 132 129 128 137 138 125 125 125 134 145 146 150 129 130 131 121 120 145 147 140 148 151 134 129 122 120 122 125 123 D istrict U nad ju s te d Ad ju s te d 79 83 84 101 74 90 89 83 91 124 113 103 108 80 93 93 96 90 100 99 84 79 89 93 96 111 98 U nad ju s te d 112 109 84 57 37 43 48 56 70 75 65 72 79 91 103 97 97 83 102 110 111 106 108 113 121 102 109 109 111 121 O th er 114 105 89 74 70 81 85 97 96 75 57 58 1946 April M ay June July August September October November December U nad ju s te d D e p a r tm e n t store sales (valu e ) 2 104 94 71 68 77 86 100 105 100 109 116 139 169 D e p t, store stock s (value ) 5 C a li fo rn ia Pacific N o r th w est U ta h & So. Id a h o Ad ju s te d Ad ju s te d Ad ju s te d 109 103 94 72 68 75 86 99 106 100 115 106 91 68 66 78 85 100 105 100 110 D istrict Ad ju s te d 132 125 124 111 110 97 69 72 82 89 99 104 98 89 80 85 89 97 108 110 117 146 189 219 232 252 310 212 244 306 109 117 136 160 192 217 242 304 292 305 315 322 324 313 319 319 317 287 284 288 266 291 326 330 376 503 294 300 315 316 311 308 320 325 310 283 317 310 327 333 312 313 307 329 286 277r 300 331 364 319 301 289 305 202 313 330 325 315 323 249 278 295 297 301 307 317 318 314 321 318 352 336 312 332 326 335 314 313 279 315 330 331r 308r 287 201 221 U nad ju s te d 116 138 174 217 237 304 217 217 250 240 249 270 296 334 C o n su m e r s’ p rices 6 A ll it e m s Food Unad ju s te d U nad ju ste d 121.8 118.1 1 0 8 .2 9 8 .8 9 3 .6 9 5 .3 9 7 .0 9 7 .9 132.0 1 2 4 .8 10 4 .0 8 9 .8 86.8 101 102.2 102.0 106 113 137 187 172 177 182 238 1 0 6 .3 1 1 9 .4 12 6 .1 12 8 .3 1 3 1 .7 1 42.1 9 3 .2 9 9 .6 1 0 0 .3 10 4 .5 9 9 .0 9 6 .9 9 7 .6 1 07.9 13 0 .9 1 43.4 142.1 14 6 .3 1 67.4 265 263 281 299 313 273 1 3 3 .8 1 3 4 .6 1 3 6 .8 143.1 1 4 5 .7 1 4 7 .7 1 5 0 .6 1 5 6 .2 15 6 .9 1 4 8 .7 1 5 0 .0 1 5 4 .5 1 7 0 .8 176.1 1 7 9 .7 18 6 .2 19 9 .9 19 8 .4 277 290 308r 304r 298 1 56.7 15 6 .7 1 5 8 .2 1 5 9 .0 15 8 .7 195.7 1 9 3 .5 19 6 .6 1 97.8 1 97.3 212 225 221 101.0 101.1 i The terms “ adjusted” and “ unadjusted” refer to adjustment of monthly figures for seasonal variation. Excepting department store statistics, all indexes are based upon data from outside sources, as follows: Lumber, various lumber trade associations; Petroleum and Cement, U.S. Bureau of M ines; W heat flour, U .S . Bureau of the Census; Electric power, Federal Power Commission; Factory employment. Factory payrolls, and Consumers’ prices, U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and cooperating state agencies; and Carloadings, various railroads and railroad associations. 1 D aily average. 8 1923-25 daily average=100. 4 W age earners only. Excludes fish, fruit and vegetable canning. * A t retail, end of month or end of year. 6 Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Seattle indexes combined, p-preliminary. r-revised. 51 M O N T H L Y REVIEW M ay 1947 BANKING AND CREDIT STATISTICS-TWELFTH DISTRICT (amounts in millions of dollars) C o n d itio n ite m s o f a ll m e m b e r b a n k s 1 D em a n d T o ta l2 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 In v e s tm e n ts 9 L o a n s a n d d isco u n ts Y e ar an d m o n th 2,239 2,218 1,898 1,570 1,486 1,469 1,537 1,682 1,871 1,869 1,967 2,130 2,451 2,170 2,106 2,254 2,663 4,068 1946 April M ay June July August September October November December 2.794 2,909 3,030 3,184 3,334 3,601 3.794 3,954 4,068 1947 January February March April M ay 4,140 4,254 4,364 4,479 4,558 C o m i., in d . For p u r c h ., carry’ g secs. R eal esta te & agrie. A ll oth e r 647 721 711 635 668 670 662 686 663 664 735 933 870 934 956 1,103 1,882 82 76 65 59 51 62 184 343 195 1,283 246 730 798 864 931 1,000 974 899 885 908 1,431 211 228 309 560 1,090 411 5Ô0 1,431 195 1,882 327 362 399 460 275 A ll o th e r secu rities U .S . G o v ’ t secu rities 495 467 547 601 720 1,064 1,275 1,334 1,270 1,323 1,450 1,482 1,738 3,630 6,235 8,263 10,450 8,426 458 561 560 528 510 575 587 614 498 486 524 590 541 538 557 698 795 908 10,377 10,090 9,673 9,651 9,624 9,171 9,157 8,815 8,426 850 867 861 882 8,303 8,058 7,909 7,677 7,662 d e posits a d ju s te d 3»4 1,234 1,158 984 840 951 1,201 T im e d e p o sits 4 1,776 1,915 1,667 1,515 1,453 1,759 2,006 2,078 2,164 2,263 2,351 2,417 2,603 3,197 4,127 5,194 5,781 5,354 5,404 5,494 5,521 5,570 5,609 5,669 5,696 5,781 1,865 1,635 1,213 1,125 900 891 889 908 8,236 8,339 8,328 8,488 8,566 8,630 8,757 8,801 8,821 911 893 894 876 862 8,704 8,367 8,327 8,334 8,248 5,761 5,804 5,820 5,837 5,851 308 370 396 286 235 888 C oin an d cu rrency in circu lation T reasu ry operations® Reserve b an k cred it 6 C o m m e r c ia l o p era tio n s 6 — 34 — 16 + 21 — 42 — 2 — 7 + 2 + 6 — 1 — 3 + 2 + 2 + 4 +107 +214 + 98 — 76 + 9 0 — 53 — 154 — 175 — 110 — 198 — 163 — 227 — 90 — 240 — 192 — 148 — 596 — 1,980 — 3,751 — 3,534 — 3,743 — 1,607 + 23 + 89 + 154 + 234 + 150 + 257 + 219 + 454 + 157 + 276 + 245 + 420 + 1 ,0 0 0 + 2 ,8 2 6 + 4 ,4 8 6 + 4 ,4 8 3 + 4 ,6 8 2 + 1 ,3 2 9 __ + + + 1946 April M ay June July August September October November December + — + + + — — + + 2 34 35 11 28 26 162 74 37 — — — — — — — — + 231 177 2 272 73 15 29 136 37 + + + + + — + + — 192 220 55 128 95 20 223 111 62 — — — —. 1947' January February March April M ay +109 + 14 — 02 — 2 + 34 — — — — + 35 25 3 69 96 — — + + — 168 133 50 47 61 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 2,212 + + + + + + + + — — — + — — — — + 68 144 307 842 1,442 2,050 303 1,122 85 3 808 610 303 B an k debits index 31 cities« Reserves 7 F .R . n o te s o f F .R .B .o f S .F . T o ta l R equired Excess 6 16 48 30 18 4 14 38 3 20 31 96 227 643 708 789 545 326 189 186 231 227 213 211 280 335 343 361 388 493 700 1,279 1,937 2,699 3,219 2,871 175 183 147 142 185 242 287 479 549 565 584 754 930 1,232 1,462 1,706 2,033 2,094 171 180 154 135 142 172 201 351 470 418 459 515 720 1,025 1,343 1,598 1,878 2,051 4 5 — 4 8 37 84 100 119 70 142 138 257 245 262 103 104 136 59 146 126 97 68 63 72 87 102 111 98 102 110 134 165 211 237 260 298 39 11 52 42 0 9 2 7 2,996 2,984 2,931 2,894 2,890 2,878 2,875 2,866 2,871 1,938 1,955 2,038 2,000 2,045 2,005 2,040 2,092 2,094 1,877 1,900 1,929 1,936 1,958 1,987 2,002 2,030 2,051 64 77 84 66 54 55 56 54 59 286 281 307 291 292 306 310 313 339 81 32 30 38 10 2,800 2,765 2,735 2,716 2,714 2,081 1,981 2,003 1,997 1,993 2,043 1,982 1,940 1,934 1,934 60 51 61 63 59 322 325 332 309 297 T o ta l 6 + + + 36 49 99 148 233 228 167 96 90 127 118 1.389 1,791 1,740 1,781 1,983 2.390 2,893 4,356 5,998 6,950 8,203 8,821 M e m b e r b a n k reserves a n d related it e m s 5 Y ear and m o n th U .S . G o v ’ t d e p o sits 4 2 U n ad ju ste d 1 Annual figures are as of end of year; monthly figures are as of last Wednesday in month or, where applicable, as of call report date. 2 Monthly data for 1946 partly estimated. 3 Demand deposits, excluding interbank and U .S. G ov’t deposits, less cash items in process of collection. 4 Monthly data partly estimated. 6 End of year and end of month figures. 6 Changes only. 7 Total reserves are as of end of year or month. Required and excess: monthly figures are daily averages, annual figures are December daily averages. 8 Debits to demand deposit accounts, excluding interbank and U.S. G ov’t deposits. 1935-39 daily average=100. p-preliminary. r-revised. 52 M ay 1947 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO National Sum mary of Business Conditions CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS AWARDED Released May 28, 1947— Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System d u s t r i a l output and employment declined slightly in April. Value of department I nstore sales continued to show usual seasonal changes in April, but increased somewhat in May. The general level of wholesale commodity prices declined somewhat in April and showed little change in the first three wreeks of May. I n d u s t r i a l P r o d u c t io n F. W . Dodge Corporation data for 37 Eastern States. Nonresidential includes awards for build« ings and public works and utilities. Monthly fig ures, latest shown are for April 1947. WHOLESALE PRICES Bureau of Labor Statistics* indexes. W eekly figures, latest shown are for week ending May 17, 1947. Industrial production declined slightly in April according to the Board’s seasonally adjusted index, which was at a level of 187 percent of the 1935-39 average for April as compared with 190 in March. Output of both durable and nondurable manufactures and of minerals was below the March rate. A slight decrease in activity in the durable goods industries in April reflected mainly work stoppages at plants producing communication equipment and small declines in output of building materials after allowance for usual seasonal changes. Output of nonferrous metals and products declined slightly in April as decreases in some fabricating industries offset further gains in activity at smelters and refineries. Steel production was at 94 percent of capacity in April, as in March, and scheduled operations at steel mills during May have been maintained at this rate. Automobile output in April continued at an annual rate of about five million cars and trucks; and activity in other transpor tation equipment industries increased somewhat. A decline in automobile production is indicated for May, largely as a result of shortages of steel sheets. Production of nondurable manufactures was in somewhat smaller volume in April owing mainly to a decrease in output of textiles. Activity in the rubber products industry was slightly below the exceptionally high first quarter levels when tires for passenger cars, trucks, and busses were being produced at an annual rate of 100 million as compared with about 60 million in 1940. Production of most other nondurable goods in April showed little change from the March rate. Output of coal declined 20 percent from March to April, reflecting work stoppages at bituminous coal mines in the early part of the month. Production of crude petroleum and of metals continued to advance. Crude petroleum output rose further in the early part of May to a new record rate. E m p lo y m e n t Nonagricultural employment decreased by about 450,000 workers in April, according to Bureau of Labor statistics figures as adjusted for seasonal variation by Federal Re serve. This decline was due chiefly to work stoppages in the telephone, bituminous coal, and electrical machinery industries. Employment in industries manufacturing nondurable goods, chiefly textiles and apparel, also declined. The number of persons unemployed in c re a s e d s lig h t ly in A p r i l . INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION C o n str u c tio n Total value of construction contracts awarded, as reported by the F. W . Dodge Cor poration, showed little change from March to April and was about one-fifth smaller than in April 1946. Private residential and nonresidential awards declined, although awards usually show a seasonal increase in April. Awards for publicly-financed construction expanded further, reflecting chiefly a large increase in the volume of contracts for streets a n d h ig h w a y s . D is tr ib u tio n Department store sales continued to show little change in April, after allowance for usual seasonal changes. The Board’s adjusted index was 275 percent of the 1935-39 average in April, compared with 277 in March and an average of 271 in the first four months of this year. In May dollar volume of sales showed less than the usual seasonal decline and in the first half of the month was 12 percent larger than in the corresponding period of 1946. Freight car loadings declined in April largely because of a sharp drop in coal shipments early in the month. Loadings of coal increased and shipments of most other classes of freight were maintained in large volume in the early part of May. Federal Reserve index. Monthly figures, latest shown is for April 1947. MEMBER BANKS IN LEADING CITIES C o m m o d i t y P r ic e s Prices of most basic commodities showed little change in the early part of May, following declines in April. Prices of feed grains and copper advanced, while prices of rubber, wool tops, paint materials, and lumber declined. The general level of wholesale prices, according to the Bureau of Labor statistics weekly index, has been at 147 percent of the 1926 average since the middle of April as compared to an average level of 149 percent in March. Demand deposits (adjusted) exclude U . S. G o v ernment and interbank deposits and collection items. Government securities include direct and guaranteed issues. W e d n e s d a y figures, latest shown are for M ay 21, 1947. T reasury F inance and B a n k Credit Treasury redemption for cash of part of the weekly maturing bill issues continued into May. Between April 17, when the program began, and May 22 one billion dollars of Treasury bills were retired. Largely as a result of these retirements Treasury war loan deposits at commercial banks were reduced by about 800 million dollars in the five weeks ending May 21. Although Federal Reserve Banks held most of the retired securities, their holdings of Treasury bills declined by considerably less than the amount retired, as some commercial banks sold bills to maintain their reserve positions. A further increase in monetary gold stock of 300 million dollars during the five weeks and small inflow of currency from circulation supplied member banks with reserve funds and thereby reduced the need for additional sales of securities to the reserve system. Commercial and industrial loans, which had expanded rapidly from the middle of 1946 until March 1947, declined somewhat during April and the first half of May at banks in leading cities. Real estate and consumer loans continued to increase. Government security holdings declined between the middle of April and the middle of May.
@FedFRASER