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MONTHLY REVIEW
OF
BUSINESS CONDITIONS
ISAAC B. NEWTON, Chairman of the Board and Federal Reserve Agent
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Vol. X V
San Francisco, California, March 20,1931
No. 3
S U M M A R Y O F N A T IO N A L C O N D IT IO N S
Prepared by the Federal Reserve Board
Output of most of the important industries
increased more than seasonally in February
and although factory employment advanced
at a less rapid rate, the volume of wage pay
ments at factories also rose by more than the
usual seasonal amount. The general level of
com m odity prices continued to decline.
Production. Industrial production, as meas
ured by the Board’s index which is adjusted
to allow for seasonal variations, increased by
4 per cent in February, from the low level pre
vailing in Decem ber and January. On the basis
of the average for 1923-1925 as 100, the vol
ume of production in February was 85, com
pared with 82 for the tw o preceding months,
and 107 for February of last year. A t steel
mills activity increased considerably, and the
output of automobiles advanced by somewhat
more than the usual seasonal amount. Output
of shoe factories and textile mills increased
substantially, while the output of coal con
tinued to decline.
During the first half of March, activity at
steel mills continued to increase. Value of
building contracts awarded in February was
slightly larger than in January according to
the F. W . D odge Corporation. An increase in
residential building was accompanied by a de
crease in contracts for public works and utili
ties, while awards for factories and commercial
buildings continued in small volume. In the
first half of March there was an increase in the
daily average of contracts awarded, as is usual
at this season.
Factory Employment and Payrolls. Factory
employment increased slightly less than usual
in February while factory payrolls increased
by more than the seasonal amount from the
low level of January. In many industries the
rate of increase in payrolls was about the same
as in February of other recent years, but in the
automobile, shoe, woolen goods, and clothing
industries, the rate of increase was larger than
usual.
Distribution. Daily average freight carloadings showed little change from January to
February, while ordinarily there is an increase
at this season. Sales by department stores in
creased slightly.
W holesale Prices. W holesale commodity
prices declined further in February and the
Bureau of Labor Statistics’ index at 75.5 per
cent of the 1926 average, was about 18 per
cent below the level of a year ago. Prices of
many agricultural products decreased consid
erably, while the price of cotton advanced fur
ther. In the first half of March there were
considerable increases in prices of silver, live
stock, meats, and hides, and declines in the
prices of petroleum and cotton.
P E R
C E N T
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
FACTORY EMPLOYMENT AND PAYROLLS
Index numbers of industrial production adjusted for seasonal varia
tions (1923-1925 average=100).
Indexes of factory employment and payrolls without adjustment for
seasonal variations (1923-1925 average=100).
March, 1931
m o n t h l y r e v ie w of b u s in e s s c o n d it io n s
18
Bank Credit. Loans and investments of
member banks in leading cities changed rela
tively little between the end of January and
the middle of March. Total loans on securities
declined, notwithstanding the growth in brok
ers’ loans in New Y ork City, and all other
PER CENT
from gold imports in February were largely
absorbed in meeting a seasonal demand for cur
rency while in the early part of March there was
an increase in member bank reserve balances.
M oney rates in the open market continued
at low levels from the middle of February to
B IL L I O N S O F D O L L A R S
■ 1r ................ H
1-------------->1
A L L O T H E R L O A N S ,/- '
9
/» ,
L O A N S 1ON S E C U R I
A
S*
V ks
* V '
s /
'
V .
\.*
i/E S T M E N T s
1 9 2 7
WHOLESALE PRICES
Index oi United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (1926 = 100).
Latest figure, February, 75.5.
loans showed considerable further liquidation,
while the banks’ investments continued to in
crease.
Volum e of reserve bank credit tended down
ward in February and showed little change be
tween March 4 and March 18. Funds arising
1 9 2 6
1 9 2 9
19 3 0
1931
MEMBER BANK CREDIT
Monthly averages of weekly figures for reporting member banks in
leading cities. Latest figures are averages of first two
weeks in March.
the middle of March. Rates on commercial
paper were reduced from a range of 2>4-2j4
per cent to a prevailing level of 2J4 per cent
while rates on 90-day bankers’ acceptances re
mained at \y 2 per cent. Yields on high-grade
bonds continued to decline.
T W E L F T H F E D E R A L R E S E R V E D IS T R IC T C O N D IT IO N S
W hatever intangible influences may have
affected the current position of Twelfth Dis
trict business it is fairly certain from Febru
ary records that there has not yet been con
crete evidence of improvement in the most
important phases of activity. Declines, al
though moderate in most cases, predominated
during that month in measures of industrial
production, trade, and wholesale commodity
prices.
On the whole the condition of agriculture
has been benefited by moderate rainfall and
mild temperatures during the past six weeks,
but soil moisture supplies are still reported to
be inadequate in much of the District. The
favorable conditions for crop production, to
gether with large and in many cases excessive
storage stocks, have tended to reduce the al
ready unsatisfactory prices to farmers. The
need for supplemental feeding of livestock has
been considerably diminished by the favorable
growth of forage on District ranges.
Despite seasonal tendencies to expand
slightly, the mining and construction industries
were less active during February than in Janu
ary. Lumber production increased but little,
whereas there is usually a sharp rise in Febru
ary, and activity in the petroleum industry was
practically unchanged. Both shipments and
orders of lumber continued to exceed produc
tion and there were further substantial reduc
tions of inventories held by mills. Output of
flour declined more than is customary between
January and February.
M ost measures of trade indicate a further
decline in distribution of commodities during
February. Department store sales declined
more than seasonally and wholesale trade was
lower than in January. Registrations of new
automobiles declined during the month, where
as there is usually little or no change in such
registrations between January and February.
There was also a decrease in the movement of
goods in the intercoastal trade.
Although the February average of wholesale
commodity prices declined sharply from the
January level, most composite weekly indexes
were steady during the last week in February
and the first half of March.
Other than some developments incident to
United States Treasury financing on March 16,
no new elements were introduced into the
credit situation during the four weeks ending
March 18 to change the trends of the past two
months. Holdings of discounted bills by the
Reserve Bank remained low and purchases of
acceptances by that Bank were unusually small
until early ' March when acceptance holdings
March, 1931
FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT SAN FRANCISCO
increased substantially. A s in other recent
months, security loans of reporting- member
banks, which are currently at the lowest levels
in three years, moved downward while invest
ments of those banks expanded. Commercial
loans and total deposits averaged higher than
in the preceding four-week period and, to
gether with increased investments, reflected
additions to the supply of funds in the District.
Banks in the Twelfth District were allotted 82
million dollars of the 1,400 million dollars of
United States Treasury financing of March 16.
Follow ing the absorption of this issue (com
posed of 23 million dollars of long-term bonds
and 59 million dollars of short-term certifi
cates) by reporting member banks, govern
ment deposits and holdings of United States
securities of these banks increased.
A griculture
During February and early March weather
conditions in the Twelfth District continued to
be more favorable to agricultural activity than
was the econom ic situation. Although greater
than a year ago, the season’s rainfall up to
March 1 was less in most agricultural areas
than the long-time average. Snow storage on
mountain watersheds from which irrigation
water supplies are derived is less than normal.
Cattle and sheep have been benefited by the
improved condition of ranges, which are now
providing most of the feed for these animals.
A considerable volume of agricultural prod
ucts is being marketed, but the low level of
farm prices has reduced the farmers’ income
greatly in comparison with returns during pre
vious marketing seasons.
Carlot Shipments
Apples ..............
Lemons ............
Vegetables (Cal.)
Eggs (Cal., Ore.,
Wash.) ..........
Beans (Cal.,
Idaho) ..........
-February1930
1931
3,884
4,441
3,663
4,591
635
780
9,072
7,450
- Season to Date1930
1931
39,543f
52,933t
14,261*
18,265*
1,930*
3,174*
35,331
33,711
443
396
950
755
392
495
3,6751
4,757t
40,980
645,530
2,327,165
809,430
6,815,878t
8,308,841f
Receipts
56,520
Cattlef ..............
9,631
Calves$ ..............
214,526
H o g s $ ................
218,132
Sheep$ ..............
160,790
Eggs (cases) § ..
Butter (l b s .)§ ... 5,211,845
58,456
10,484
178,619
151,855
161,933
4,877,256
Exports
Wheat ( b u . ) . . . .
Barley (b u .)-----
Storage Holdings
( end of the month)
Apples (cars—
7,043
Wash.) ..........
Wheat (b u .)___ 6,907,000
Beans (bags—
Cal.) .............. 1,531,988
875,465
Butter ( l b s .) t ...
24,809
Eggs (cases)$ ...
*Season begins November 1.
markets. §Three markets.
5,585
4,388,000
763,612
890,224
13,850
f Season
Domestic marketings of the District’s crops
and animal products have been greater in vol
ume during the 1930-1931 season than for a
corresponding period of the 1929-1930 season.
Despite this increased movement of produce to
market, which may be attributed partially to a
larger volume of crop production, storage
stocks for most agricultural commodities on
March 1 were greater than a year ago, indi
cating that the increase in the quantity of
products marketed has not been as great as the
increase in the volume of production.
Marketing of the 1930-1931 Navel orange
crop, which is now estimated to be 15,708,000
boxes, continues in large volume. During the
past four months, shipments of oranges from
California and Florida have been 28 per cent
and 42 per cent greater, respectively, than for
the same four months in 1929 and 1930. F.o.b.
prices for Navel oranges in California during
recent months have averaged about 30 per cent
less than in the previous season. Growing
conditions in California have favored the de
velopment of the forthcoming Valencia orange
crop.
Trade factors report that the winter wheat
crop in the Pacific Northwest is in excellent
condition. The 1931 grain crops in California
had practically all been sown by March 1.
Stocks of wheat and barley on farms were
greater on March 1 this year than last, a situa
tion similar to that which exists for grain
stocks in terminal market elevators of the
District.
W HEAT A N D B A R LE Y -STO C K S ON FARMS
(in thousands of bushels)
123.128
21,706
454,079
485,408
306.128
10,818,451
133,491
24,170
411,296
338,765
305,306
10,202,676
t---------------- March 1 -------------- —
1931
1930
1929
19,816
14,199
14,439
(17.5)
(12.5)
(11.4)
.......................... 160,282
129,754
148,813
(18.8)
(16.0)
(16.5)
Wheat
Twelfth District ......................
United States
Agricultural Marketing Activity—
19
Barley
Twelfth District ......................
7,097
4,032
(13.9)
(9.1)
72,160
United States .......................... 84,815
---------- ^
(26.0)
(23.8)
Figures in parentheses indicate percentageof preceding
crop remaining on farms March 1.
S ource: United States Department of Agriculture.
4,919
(10.6)
97,050
(27.2)
year’ s
The market for dairy and poultry produce
improved slightly during early March, al
though quotations for these commodities con
tinue generally unsatisfactory for the producer.
Storage holdings of butter at Pacific Coast cen
ters on March 1 were 2 per cent less than on
March 1, 1930. Receipts of butter at Portland,
Los Angeles, and San Francisco during Febru
ary were 7 per cent greater than during Febru
ary, 1930. Storage holdings of eggs increased
during February, as is usual, reflecting the
beginning of the period of heaviest production.
On March 1 holdings were 24,809 cases as
compared with 13,850 cases a year ago. R e
ceipts of eggs at Portland, Los Angeles and
San Francisco were 160,790 cases during
March, 1931
MONTHLY REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS
20
February, approximating the 161,933 cases re
ceived in February, 1930.
Mild weather during February has resulted
in an improvement in range conditions, mak
ing it necessary to supply only a small amount
of supplementary feed. M ore rainfall will be
required, however, to assure a satisfactory
growth of forage on summer ranges. Early
estimates indicate that the California spring
lamb crop is about 10 per cent greater than a
year ago, while it has been estimated that the
number of lambs dropped in Arizona this
spring is less than it was in 1930. The condi
tion of lambs in the latter state is reported to
be better than in the preceding season. Cattle
are in better flesh generally than they were a
year ago and prospects for the forthcom ing
calf crop are excellent.
Industry
Industrial activity in the Tw elfth District
failed to expand by the usual amount (about 5
per cent) during February. The petroleum in
dustry operated at about the same rate as in
January, while production of lumber increased
less than seasonally and activity in the build
ing and flour milling industries declined
slightly. Except for a continuation of the rela
tively high rate of activity in gold mines, min
eral output was also reduced during the month.
Reports from various sections of the District
indicate that the number of employees re
mained practically unchanged throughout the
month. The wage level for those already em
ployed changed little, but such new employees
as were taken on were frequently put to work
at reduced wage levels.
Crude oil production in California remained
unchanged during February. Refinery activity
B U ILD IN G
P E R M IT S
INDEX
increased and stocks of gasoline at the end
of February were larger than at the end of
January. A s in January, inventories of fuel oil
declined considerably, but because of the large
volume of such stocks the percentage decrease
was comparatively small. Shipments of oil from
Los Angeles harbor decreased as compared
with January and were of about the same
volume as in February, 1930, when the m ove
ment was much smaller than the monthly aver
age in 1929 and 1930.
Output of copper mines of the District was
further curtailed during February with a re
sulting decline in stocks of blister copper, a
continuation of the trend of the past nine
months. Refined copper stocks, however, which
had declined somewhat during Decem ber and
January, were practically the same in volume
on March 1 as on February 1 and were more
than 50 per cent larger than on March 1, 1930.
Production of the principal other non-ferrous
metals, with the exception of gold, also de
clined during February. A ctivity has been re
sumed on a number of abandoned gold bearing
properties, principally in California, Nevada,
and Arizona, and considerable prospecting for
new deposits has been reported.
Although there is usually a substantial in
crease in output of lumber during February,
the rate of production during that month this
year barely exceeded the January rate. Ship
ments increased somewhat less than the usual
amount. Current production has been running
considerably below both shipments and orders
for several months, however, with the result
that, during this period, there has been a fairly
steady decline in stocks of lumber held by
mills. The movement of lumber through the
Panama Canal to the east coast was smaller
than in December or January, but exceeded
NUM BERS
B UILDING A N D CONSTRUCTION
TOTAL
C O N S T R U C T IO N A N D
CONTRACTS
Twelfth District
Indexes of building permits issued, engineering contracts awarded, and total building and construction, adjusted for seasonal variations
(1923-1925 = 100). Original data were smoothed by a three-month moving average.
March, 1931
f e d e r a l reserve a g e n t a t s a n f r a n c is c o
that of any other month since last May and
was larger than average monthly shipments
during 1930. The demand from the building
and construction industry in the District was
approximately the same as in earlier months.
There was a slight decline in the total vol
ume of construction in the Tw elfth District
during February as compared with January.
For the last few months the total value of con
struction has been fairly constant at excep
tionally low levels, although there have been
some fluctuations in certain regions and in
some lines of activity. February building per
mits for the District were about 26 per cent
smaller in value than in February, 1930. The
decline from the preceding year was general
throughout the District, although a large part
of the total decline was accounted for by de
creases in Seattle and Tacoma. The decline in
value of building permits as compared with
January was not marked in most cities of the
District. Engineering contracts awarded de
clined during February contrary to the usual
seasonal expectation. Contracts let for public
and government buildings and streets and
roads were greater in value than were other
classes of contracts during the month, most of
which decreased by large amounts.
W hile output of flour mills in the District
declined somewhat more than seasonally dur
ing February, the decrease from the preceding
year, as in other recent months, was smaller
than in most industries. Demand for export
flour has fallen off until it is almost negligible
at the present time. Some mills report a m od
erate amount of domestic business, particularly
with southeastern states, while others report
domestic trade as being very quiet.
Employment—
California------- V f — • -Oregon-. ..... — >
No. of
No. of
No.
No. ^-Employees ->
Employees —\
Feb.,
Feb.,
of Feb.,
of
Feb.,
1930 Firms
1931
1930
Industries
Firms 1931
18,499
21,851
All Industries* . . . . 878 129,798 163,316 141
(—20.5)
(--15.3)
Stone, Clay and
180
5,204
7,067
3
113
Glass Products. 48
—
26.4)
(
- -37.2)
(
Lumber and W ood
17,111
9,894
12,353
14,383
50
Manufactures .. 115
(-— 15.9)
( - -19.9)
1,616
1,508
18
2,230
2,415
9
Textiles ..............
(— 7.7)
(-- 6 .7 )
Clothing, Millinery
and Laundering. 87
393
7,258
8,188
8$
353
( — 11.4)
( - -10.2)
Food, Beverages,
and T o b a c c o ... 193 23,361 25,487
40
1,583
1,679
(— 8.3)
(--5 .7 )
Public U tilities... 36 54,708 60,299
(— 9.3)
Other Industriesf. 380 69,682 93,903
( — 25.8)
5.630
7,680
5,048
Miscellaneous . .. 37
9,145
31
( — 16.0)
( - -10.3)
Wholesale and
R e ta il................ 119 33,601 36,661
(— 8.3)
*Public utilities and wholesale and retail figures not included in
this total. {Laundering only, flncludes the following in
dustries : metals, machinery and conveyances; leather and
rubber g o o d s; chemicals, oils and paints; printing and paper
goods.
Figures in parentheses indicate percentage change from Febru
ary, 1930.
21
Trade
Further decline in Tw elfth District dis
tributive activity during February was indi
cated by records available for that month.
Sales of retailers and wholesalers reporting to
this Bank decreased and the number of new
automobiles registered in the District dropped
sharply. Intercoastal shipments through the
Panama Canal also declined.
RETAIL TRADE—Twelfth District
STOCKS*
/--------- NET SALES*-------- >
Jan. 1 to
Feb., 1931
Feb, 28,1931
Feb.. 1931
compared
compared with
compared
with
Jan. 1 to
with
Feb.. 1930
Feb.28,1930
Feb.. 1930
Department Storesf. .— 10.2 ( 67) — 9.5 ( 67)
— 13.9 (50)
— 11.3 ( 27)
— 13.0 (17)
Apparel S t o r e s .......... — 10.4 ( 27)
Furniture Stores . . .— 19.1 ( 37) — 14.9 ( 37)
— 13.4 (26)
All Stores .................. — 11.5 (131)
— 10.3 (131)
— 13.7 (93)
*Percentage increase or decrease (— ). Figures in parentheses in
dicate number of stores reporting, flncludes dry goods stores.
The persistent downtrend in department
store sales during the past 14 months has low
ered this Bank’s seasonally adjusted index from
126 in December, 1929, to 106 in February,
1931. This decreased value is indicative both
of a shrinkage in the volume of transactions
and of lower retail prices. W hile the relative
importance of these factors cannot be defi
nitely determined, it seems probable that they
have been approximately equally responsible
for the past year’s decline in value of sales.
Inventories of department stores have declined
more than 26 per cent in value since Novem
ber, 1929 (in that month stocks were the largest
on record). During February, inventories of
department stores increased slightly but by
less than the usual amount during that month.
Sales of wholesalers during February were
21 per cent smaller in value than in February,
1930, and were lower than at any time since
February, 1922. Declines were general in all
Industry—
Indexes of daily average production, adjusted for seasonal variations
(1923-1925 daily average33100^
,— 1931 — > ,---- 1930— *
Feb.
Feb. Jan. Dec
General :
97
75
74
Carloadings— Industrial ^............ ........ 66
157
151
153
Electric Power Production
Manufactures :
67
63
98
........ 59
140
169
133
157
Refined Mineral O i l s f ................
105
101
........ 101
111
86
70
78
83
Slaughter of Livestock................
, . . 96
75
79
93
54
57
80
W ool Consumptionf ..................
Minerals :
81
113
Petroleum (California) f .......... ........ 81
89
Copper (United States) t .......... . . . . 67
71
75
95
Lead (United States) $ .............. ........ 82
83
92
106
Silver (United States)$ ............
68
90
66
Building and Construction^
Total ............................................. ........ 56
57
55
61
Value of Building Permits
Twenty Larger Cities ............
44
46
50
Seventy Smaller C itie s............ ........ 45
47
48
58
Value of Engineering Contracts
Awarded
Total .....................................
96
94
120
Excluding Buildings .......... ........ 107
117
96
115
fN ot adjusted for seasonal variations. {Prepared by FederalI Reserve Board. §Indexes are for three months ending with the
month indicated.
22
MONTHLY REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS
lines, although sales of drugs and groceries
continued to be relatively better maintained
than were sales in other lines of trade. The
decline for all lines over the year period was
greater than in Decem ber or January but
slightly less than the year-to-year decline last
November. In the past, wholesale trade has
generally reached the lowest level of the year
in February, there usually having been an ap
preciable seasonal improvement in March.
Registrations of new automobiles, after re
covering at the year end from the low level of
November, declined substantially during Janu
ary and February, and in the later month were
38 per cent lower than in February, 1930.
A fter allowance for seasonal variations, the
total number of freight cars loaded in the Dis
trict declined during February from the level
of January when hauling on the District’s rail
roads had already fallen to the lowest point in
the seven years that such statistics have been
compiled. Loadings of merchandise and mis
cellaneous freight increased seasonally, but
industrial loadings failed to register any part
of the usual increase.
March, 1931
lantic to Pacific ports have declined sharply,
though irregularly, since the autumn of 1929.
Shipments through the Panama Canal to the
east coast decreased rapidly in early 1930, but
have increased in most months since that time,
and currently approximate the monthly aver
age of the past three years.
----- —
) • " ......... .........1
C O M h llE R C IA L
V E H I C L E S
t *\ t
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1
1
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P A . S S E N G E R
C A R S J S I
11______ _____ ____ !
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
REGISTRATION OF NEW AUTOMOBILES
Indexes of daily average registrations of new passenger and commer
cial motor vehicles in the Twelfth District, adjusted for seasonal
variations (1923-1925 average=100).
The combined value of imports and exports
of Pacific Coast ports during 1930, data for
which have become available during the past
month, was 30 per cent smaller than in 1929, in
which year the District’s foreign trade was of
record proportions. The decline in the dollar
amount of foreign trade was due both to a
smaller tonnage of cargoes and to lower prices
for the leading articles imported and exported.
Raw materials prices declined more sharply
than did prices for other com m odities; conse
quently the value of imports, which are com
prised to a greater extent of raw materials,
decreased by a larger amount than the value of
exports. The excess of exports over imports
was $111,000,000 in 1930 as compared with $80,000,000 in 1929.
Prices
FOREIGN TRAD E OF PACIFIC COAST PORTS
W ITH PRINCIPAL COUNTRIES
W aterborne commerce in the intercoastal trade
declined in volume during February and both
eastbound and westbound cargoes were smaller
than in February, 1930. Shipments from A t
Since late February, most weekly indicators
have recorded steady or slightly rising average
wholesale prices. Composite prices during
February were substantially lower than in
January, however, as a result of the sharp de
clines which persisted until the middle of the
later month. The wholesale com m odity price
index of the Bureau of Labor Statistics de
clined from 77 (1926 = 100) in January to 75.5
in February, a figure but 8 per cent above the
1913 annual average. Between January 15 and
February 15 there was another sharp drop in
retail prices of food at the principal cities of
the District, which have declined 17 per cent
since February, 1930, and which are now but
17 per cent above their level in 1913. Although
other components of the cost of living have not
declined so rapidly as have retail food prices,
March, 1931
reductions in the costs of clothing and fuel and
lighting have become somewhat larger in re
cent months.
Quotations for wheat at Twelfth District
markets have declined irregularly since midFebruary, accompanying a further increase in
the visible supply now being held on the Pacific
Coast and continued improvement in the condi
tion of the winter crop. A t Chicago markets
nearby wheat contracts were fairly steady, but
July futures have moved downward from a
high quotation of 7 2 ^ cents on February 10
to a low of 6 1 # cents per bushel on March 20.
Because of lower foreign quotations, exports
of wheat through Pacific Coast ports continued
to be almost negligible during the first half of
March.
Despite reduced cattle receipts, prices of
these animals at District markets have con
tinued to decrease and now closely approxi
mate the low levels reached early last autumn.
Lamb prices, on the contrary, have increased
slightly in response to smaller market receipts.
Current quotations for hogs are the lowest in
several years. Notwithstanding increases in
the production of butter and in the receipts of
eggs, prices of these commodities have risen
slightly from their low levels of early Febru
ary. Since mid-February, sugar, coffee, tea,
canned and dried fruits, and potatoes have de
clined slightly in price, while quotations for
oranges, shipments of which were smaller in
February, have been moderately higher. The
upward movement in prices of silk and cotton
during February has been follow ed by declines
during early March. Quotations for wool have
continued to move downward slowly.
Distribution and Trade —
.-----1931-----» ,-----1930----- ,
Feb. Jan.
Dec.
Feb.
Foreign Trade0
/------ Index Numbers*137 ^
Totalf ................................................
93
120
Importsf ...........................................
97
Exports ............................................
92
91
147
Intercoastal Trade0
Total ................................................ .. 83
86
88
95
Westbound .................................... . 92
97
103
128
Eastbound ...................................... . 81
82
84
89
Carloadings$
Total ................................................ .. 82
89
84
108
Merchandise and Miscellaneous. ,. 92
102
92
112
Retail Trade
Automobile SalesJ
Total ............................................ . 71
84
89
115
Passenger Cars ..........................-. 67
114
78
83
Commercial Vehicles ................ . 115
144
148
124
Department Store
Sales$ ............ ............................. . 106
108
110
1170
Stocks§ ........................................ . 92
93
99
1050
Stock Turnover||........................
Collections#
Regular .................................. .
Installment ............................ .
.22
40.9
14.8
-Actual Figures
.25
.44
44.8
15.9
42.8
15.2
.21
42.5
14.8
*Adjusted for seasonal variations, 1923-1925 average=100. ‘’ In
dexes are for three months ending with month indicated.
fExcluding raw silk. {Daily average. §At end of month.
||Proportion of average stocks sold during month. # P e r
cent of collections during month to amount outstanding at
first of month. ORevised.
23
fed er al reserve a g e n t a t s a n f r a n c is c o
Silver prices have advanced rapidly from the
record low of 2 5 # cents per fine ounce on
February 16, to 3 1 ^ cents per fine ounce on
March 16. Rising from their unusually low
levels of early February, copper prices have
fluctuated between 10 and 10^ cents per
pound, delivered Connecticut Valley, since the
middle of the month.
Substantial reductions in prices of crude oil
at principal District markets have been accom
panied by sharp declines in both retail and
wholesale prices of gasoline. Quotations on
coastwise and rail shipments of lumber were
fairly steady during February, but there were
substantial reductions in prices for Atlantic
seaboard delivery, reflecting sharp declines in
intercoastal shipping rates.
Credit Situation
Except for certain changes in connection
with the issuance of United States Treasury
certificates and bonds on March 16, the credit
situation has continued about the same during
March as in the first two months of the year.
Security loans of reporting member banks have
declined while their other loans and invest
ments have increased. Borrowings from the
Federal Reserve Bank have continued small
and interest rates charged customers have re
mained low. The amount of money in circula
tion in the District has changed little since
mid-February, as is customary at this time of
the year.
Bank Debits* —
Arizona
Phoenix .......... .,$
California
Bakersfield
Berkeley ........
February, February, «—First Two Months-'*
1930
1931
1931
1930
28,424 $ 37,278 $ 64,946 $ 84,267
10,378
14,490
21,145
39,141
750,163
167,934
31,369
39,806
8,025
43,843
956,304
20,101
11,302
15,115
12,786
18,753
43,181
43,980
969,142
169,807
34,417
42,201
10,436
55,306
1,142,644
24,726
13,701
21,249
24,904
33,612
47,774
94,598
1,753,628
393,634
68,679
91,230
18,230
106,674
2,104,934
50,232
27,506
36,200
28,936
41,824
89,066
98,818
2,077,618
370,838
73,336
97,245
21,651
118,755
2,436,234
58,059
31,231
50,615
11,584
12,383
25,978
28,641
8,707
10,033
18,923
22,126
5,007
129,453
5,976
150,371
11,020
272,940
12,680
325,775
12,874
53,094
14,332
66,110
28,735
125,339
33,589
154,845
5,847
7,693
165,553
36,355
30,849
10,402
7,823
11,743
217,775
45,701
39,474
11,778
13,372
18,284
377,221
88,642
68,206
25,077
16,998
25,625
469,298
99,516
86,721
26,224
.$2,634,958
$3,233,106
$5,990,518
$6,980,531
Long Beach
Los Angeles . .. .
Oakland .......... .
Pasadena ........ .
Sacramento
San Bernardino
San Diego -----San Francisco . .
San Jose ..........
Santa Barbara ,
Stockton ........ .
Idaho
Nevada
Oregon
Eugene .............
Portland ......... .
Utah
Salt Lake City..
Washington
Bellingham
Everett ............
.
Spokane ............
Tacoma .......... .
Yakima ..........
*In thousands of dollars.
24
MONTHLY REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS
The number of banks borrowing from the
Federal Reserve Bank during February was
practically the same as in January and Decem
ber, and, as in those months, the bulk of bor
rowing was by city banks in the Head Office
area. Discounts for country member banks
have changed little during the past month. The
important seasonal rise in discounts for those
banks usually comes later in the spring, reach
ing a peak for the year in the summer months.
Reserve Bank holdings of locally purchased
acceptances were unusually small in volume
during February but increased sharply during
the first half of March. Similarly, this Bank
participated but little in the New York market
during February, where purchases of accept
ances by the Reserve System during that
month were relatively small because open mar
ket rates on acceptances were lower than Sys
tem buying rates. Follow ing a rise in open
market rates late in February such purchases
increased considerably.
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO
(In millions of dollars)
Total Bills and Securities........
Bills D iscoun ted ......................
Bills Bought ............................
United States Securities........
Total Reserves ............................
Total Deposits ............................
Federal Reserve Notes in Circu
lation ........................................
Ratio of Total Reserves to De
posit and Note Liabilities
Combined ................................
t-------------- Condition ----------------- ^
Mar.18, Mar. 11, Feb.18, Mar.19,
1931
1931
1931
1930
70
63
62
79
12
6
17
8
19
18
6
34
39
39
39
37
296
303
309
265
188
187
186
169
160
162
167
156
85.0
86.8
87.3
81.4
Total loans of reporting member banks de
creased slightly during the four weeks ended
March 18 while deposits increased, both time
deposits and demand deposits taking part in
the advance. The tendency to employ an in
creased volume of funds in investment chan
nels continued and on March 18 these holdings
stood at the highest point on record. Security
loans, which have been declining steadily
since reaching a record volume last September,
continued to move downward during the
period under review, and now, at 351 million
dollars, are approximately at the levels of late
1927 and early 1928. This decline has been
partially offset during the past four weeks by
an increase in commercial loans.
City banks have been recalling surplus funds
from eastern markets during recent weeks in
anticipation of a seasonal withdrawal of bal
ances by District country banks which usually
commences about this time of year. Country
banks normally begin to finance increased
spring agricultural and commercial activity in
their communities in March or April and to
assist in such financing call home some of the
funds on deposit with their city correspond
ents. As stated above, their increased demands
March, 1931
upon the Reserve Bank usually come later in
the spring.
During the past month there has been a
substantial loss of funds to this District
through the gold settlement fund, in payment
for investments and in the normal course of
check clearings. Mint purchases of gold aver
aging approximately one million dollars a
week, and United States Treasury expendi
tures in excess of collections, averaging ap
proximately three million dollars a week,
contributed moderately to the supply of funds
available to banks in the District. Part of the
gold purchased by the Mint was produced
locally and the remainder resulted from im
ports. There were several small deposits of
United States gold coin imported principally
from China.
REPORTING MEMBER BANKS— Twelfth District
(In millions of dollars)
t—-------------- Condition--------------- >
Loans and Investments— Total.
Loans— Total ..........................
On Securities ......................
All Other ..............................
Investments— Total ................
United States Securities . . .
Other Securities ..................
Reserve with Reserve B ank___
Net Demand Deposits................
Time Deposits ............................
Due from Banks ..........................
Due to Banks ..............................
Borrowings at Reserve B ank..
Mar.18, Mar. 11, Feb. 18, Mar. 19,
1931
1931
1931
1930
2,001
1,964
1,943
1,960
1,257
1,266
1,277
1,355
347
352
375
445
910
914
902
910
744
698
666
605
387
341
330
348
357
357
336
257
111
108
107
97
760
755
738
719
1,028
1,031
1,019
1,014
208
203
215
168
287
282
281
214
7
1
11
0
On March 16 the United States Treasury
floated a 500 million dollar issue of bonds ma
turing in 1941-1943 and 900 million dollars in
certificates of indebtedness, of which 300 mil
lion dollars were for six-months maturity and
600 million dollars for one-year maturity. O f
these issues 23 million dollars of bonds and 59
million dollars of certificates were allotted to
banks in this District. The entire allotment of
bonds was exchanged for maturing issues of
Treasury notes, but the greater part (52,207
thousand dollars) of the certificate allotment
was paid for by book entries giving deposit
credit to the Treasurer of the United States.
This financing became apparent in the condi
tion of reporting member banks almost im
mediately, both their government deposits
and their investments in government securities
increasing 46 million dollars during the week
ending March 18.
A substantial improvement in prices of in
dustrial securities listed on Twelfth District
stock exchanges was accompanied by a much
larger volume of trading during February.
Nearly all of the 1930 annual reports of cor
porations have now been issued, showing, as
had been expected, much lower earnings by
most companies during 1930 than for several
years. The rate of interest charged by brokers
upon debit balances of customers during
February was the same as in January.
@FedFRASER