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MONTHLY REVIEW OF B U S IN E S S C O N D I T IO N S JOHN PERRIN , Chairman of the Board and Federal Reserve Agent Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Vol. IX No. 3 San Francisco, California, March 20, 1925 SU M M ARY OF N A T IO N A L CONDITIONS Production in basic industries declined in February from the high rate of output in Janu ary, but continued above the level of a year ago. Notwithstanding a decline in prices of agricul tural commodities, the average of wholesale prices rose slightly, owing to a further advance in prices of certain other commodities. Production. The Federal Reserve Board’s index of production in 22 basic industries, which is adjusted to allow for differences in the number of working days and for seasonal variations, declined 3 per cent in February, but continued to be higher than at any time since the peak reached in May, 1923. Average daily output of iron and steel was exceptionally heavy, and copper production per day was the largest since 1918. There was a slight decline in activity in the woolen industry and more considerable reductions in the output of lumber, cement, bituminous coal, and crude petroleum. Production of automobiles increased 19 per cent in February, the largest monthly increase in nearly two years, but output was still over 25 per cent smaller than a year ago. Factory employment increased by about 2 per cent in February, considerable increases being re ported for the automobile, iron and steel, and clothing industries, while the number of work ers in the meat packing and cement industries declined. Earnings of industrial workers in February were larger than in January, reflect ing in part the resumption of full time work after the inventory period. Reports to the De partment of Agriculture of intentions to plant in 1925 indicate that the acreage of practically all grains and of tobacco will be larger and that of white potatoes smaller than in 1924. Trade. Total railroad freight movements continued at approximately the same daily rate in February as in January, and shipments of PER PER CENT P rodu ction in B a sic Industries — Index of 22 basic commodities corrected for seasonal variation ( 1 9 1 9 = 1 0 0 ) . Latest figure, February, 124. CENT W h olesale P rices — Index of U . S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (1 91 3 = 100, base adopted by Bureau). Latest figure, February, 161. T h o s e d e s i r i n g t h is r e v ie w s e n t t h e m r e g u la r l y w il l r e c e i v e it w i t h o u t c h a r g e u p o n a p p l ic a t io n . 18 M a r c h , 1925 M O N TH LY REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS merchandise, which have increased in recent weeks, were much larger than a year ago. Wholesale and retail sales were smaller during February than a year ago, owing partly to the fact that February had one less business day this year. Department store sales were one per cent smaller in February than in the corre sponding month of 1924. Wholesale trade in all lines, except meats and hardware, was less the middle of February and the middle of March, and on March 11th were larger than at any time in the past four years. The volume of loans for commercial purposes has been at a high and almost constant level since last autumn, and loans on stocks and bonds, which have increased continuously since the summer of 1924, reached the largest amount on record in March. Increases in loans were accompanied PER B IL L IO N S CENT F a cto ry E m ploym ent — Index for 33 Manufacturing: Industries ( 1 9 1 9 = 1 0 0 .) M e m b e r B ank C r e d it— W e e k ly figures for member banks in 101 leading Latest figure, February, 95. than a year ago, and showed in February about the usual seasonal changes. Sales of groceries, meats, and drugs decreased while sales of dry goods and shoes increased. Prices. The slight rise in the wholesale price index of the Bureau of Labor Statistics was due to advances in the fuel and lighting group, largely in petroleum, and in building materials, while prices of other commodity groups de clined. During the first three weeks of March prices of hogs, cotton goods, and rubber in creased, while prices of many other commodi ties decreased, the largest decreases being those of wheat and other grains. Bank Credit. Loans of member banks in principal cities continued to increase between OF D O L L A R S cities. Latest figure, March 11. by further reduction in the holdings of securi ties, particularly at banks in the financial cen ters. At the reserve banks demand for credit increased between the end of January and the middle of March, chiefly as a result of the ex port demand for gold and the growth in domes tic currency requirements, writh the conse quence that earning assets increased. After March 15th, however, temporary abundance of funds arising out of Treasury operations re sulted in a sharp reduction in member bank borrowings. Somewhat firmer conditions in the money market in the latter part of Febru ary and the early weeks of March were indi cated by a rise of the rate on 4-6 months prime commercial paper from 3^4 to 4 per cent. T W E L F T H FED ER AL RESERVE DISTRICT CONDITIONS Statistical Summary— Febru ary, 1925 B a n k D e b it s — 21 c i t i e s * ........................................................ B a n k D e b its — I n d e x N u m b e r s § — 20 c e n t e r s ............... ......................................... 149 S a v in g s D e p o s its — 71 b a n k s * .............................................. ......................................... $1,088,108 524,379 L u m b e r P r o d u c t io n — 4 a s s o c ia tio n s — b o a r d f e e t * . . ......................................... 602,494 P e tr o le u m P r o d u c t io n t — C a lifo rn ia — b a r r e ls ............... ......................................... F lo u r P r o d u c t io n — 16 c o m p a n ie s — b a r r e ls ................. ......................................... 414,985 R e p o r t in g M e m b e r B a n k L o a n s and D is c o u n t s t * . . ......................................... $1,093,957 F e d e ra l R e s e r v e B a n k D is c o u n t s !!* .................................. F e d e ra l R e s e r v e B a n k R e s e r v e R a tio fl........................... ......................................... 79.4 January, 1925 $2,797,011 138 $31,464,205 147 $1,046,886 523,932 604,622 489,357 $1,071,730 $1,514,817 $17,747 75.5 F eb ru ary, 1924 $2,521,733 147 $34,176,113 159 $980,347 586,050 666,939 578,314 $1,016,297 $1,339,163 $48,564 77.6 — — — — — — F e b ., 1925** com pared w ith F e b ., Jan., 1924 1925 1.3 — 8.7 1.3 8.0 4.5 3.8 5.7 2.0 3.9 10.5 — 9.7 9.7 — 0.4 28.2 — 15.2 7.7 2.1 14.0 0.7 33.5 51.2 5.2 2.3 11.0 * I n th ou sa n d s. § A d ju s te d f o r sea son a l v a ria tio n s — -1919 m o n th ly a v e r a g e = 1 0 0 . t D a ily a v e ra g e p r o d u c tio n . J M a r c h 11, 1925, F e b ru a r y 11, 1925, a n d M a r c h 12¡, 1924. IfM arch 18, 1925, F e b ru a r y 18, 1925, a n d M a r c h 19, 1924. * * P e r c e n t a g e in cre a s e o r d e cre a se . 19 FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT SAN FRANCISCO M a r c h , 1925 United States Department of Agriculture are shown in the following tables : Agricultural Activities Weather conditions during February and early March favored seasonal agricultural oper ations and stimulated growth of crops and forage. The supply of moisture now in the soil and prospective supplies of water for irrigation purposes are reported to be adequate in most sections of the district, the principal excep tions being areas in Southern California and in Arizona, where seasonal rainfall to date has been considerably (50 to 70 per cent) below normal. Satisfactory progress has been made in reseeding winter-killed grain crops in the Pacific Northwest. There has been improvement in physical condition of the livestock industry, except in Arizona. Generally excellent returns from early spring lambing are reported from sheep-raising sections of the district. Condition figures of livestock ranges, cattle, and sheep, expressed in percentages of normal (normal=100), for the states of this district follow : R anges— \ F e b ., M a r. 1. 1, 1925 1924 1925 59 . . 57 88 A r iz o n a 62 85 C a lifo rn ia . . . . 92 100 75 I d a h o ............ . , 87 101 77 O r e g o n ......... . 82 N e v a d a ......... 67 95 61 91 65 U ta h ............. . . 69 W a s h in g t o n . .. 71 98 59 C a ttle — \ F e b .. M ar. 1, 1, 1925 1924 1925 69 90 72 89 82 85 100 88 91 85 100 87 69 91 65 71 94 68 95 77 74 Sheep F e b ., M ar. 1, 1, 1925 1924 1925 87 96 85 83 88 91 99 98 96 92 100 91 97 80 75 83 93 80 87 102 86 Agricultural market trends, as indicated by comparative figures of the movement of certain of the district's important crops, figures of mar ket receipts of livestock, and of cold storage holdings of butter and eggs, are shown in Table “A .” Evidence of unusually rapid marketing of the district’s wheat and barley crops, presented in the table, is confirmed by reports of rela tively small stocks of these grains held on farms in the important grain growing states of the district on March 1, 1925. Estimates of the STOCKS O N FA R M S W HEAT C a lifo rn ia P er C e n t of C ro p M arch 1 , ---------- > F iv e - S hipped O ut of C ou n ty W h e re G ro w n Y ear A v era ge f-----M a rch 1 , ------% 1924 1925 1924 1923 (bu.)* 1925 (b u .)* (b u .)* 59 70 72 1,131 1,139 191 (7 .0 ) (8 .6 ) ( 4 .0 ) 62 5,421 68 4,486 63 2,139 (1 8 .0 ) (1 8 .0 ) (9 .0 ) 2,949 2,479 60 65 70 1,390 (1 0 .9 ) (9 .0 ) (1 5 .6 ) 1,911 4,861 70 81 7,346 75 (1 0 .4 ) (7 .0 ) (1 1 .8 ) 16,847 5,631 12,965 (1 2 .3 ) (1 2 .5 ) (8 .6 ) 137,717 70.5 113,928 163,000 63.4 67.3 (1 9 .2 ) (1 7 .3 ) (1 3 .1 ) ......... W a s h in g t o n ... F o u r S tates . . . U n it e d S ta te s . BARLEY C a lifo rn ia .... W a s h in g t o n ... F o u r S ta te s . .. 806 (8 .0 ) 385 (1 3 .0 ) 267 (1 1 .0 ) 264 (1 0 .0 ) 1,722 (9 .5 ) 43,127 (2 2 .9 ) U n ite d S ta te s . 2,646 ( 8 .0 ) 800 (2 0 .0 ) 462 (1 5 .0 ) 893 (2 2 .9 ) 4,801 (1 1 .0 ) 44,930 (2 2 .6 ) 3,065 ( 9 .8 ) 651 (2 0 .0 ) 462 (1 9 .6 ) 658 (2 1 .0 ) 4,836 (1 2 .1 ) 45,480 (2 5 .5 ) 64 65 72 42 26 30 23 20 11 25 27 23 35.0 34.5 36.6 F ig u r e s in p a re n th e se s in d ica te the p e r c e n t o f c r o p o f p r e c e d in g y e a r re m a in in g o n fa rm s o n M a r c h 1st. *000 o m itte d . Wool growers of the district report that fleeces this year will be of average quality and amount. Wool buyers were active during the winter and it is estimated that a considerably larger proportion of the spring clip has been contracted for sale than was sold prior to shear ing a year ago. During recent weeks buyers have temporarily withdrawn from the field, however, and prices generally have declined slightly. Sales contracts made during the past winter were at prices ranging from 40 to 53 cents per pound, depending upon quality of wool and cost of transportation to market, com pared with prices ranging from 33 to 43 cents per pound a year ago. (A ) Agricultural Marketing Activity-------C a rlot S h ip m e n ts ------t------ E x ports------W heat* B a rle y A p p les* Portland and San 12th O ranges? L em ons? Puget Sound F ra n cis co D ist. C a lif. C a lif. M on th ly F eb ru a ry, 1 9 2 5 .............................................. J a n u a ry, 1 9 2 5 .............................................. (1000 b u .) F e b ru a r y — F iv e -y e a r C u m ulative a v e r a g e ................ . (1000 b u .) L iv e s to c k R eceipts Cold Storage Holdings** at Eight M arkets in 12th D istrict 12th D istrict C a ttle Butter Eggs and (1000 (1000 C a lves H ogs Sheep lb s .) ca se s) 100,116 250,860 154,099 622 7.3 126,301 316,990 179,656 1,244 0.6 8 2 ,7 9 7 192,538 172,751 414 3.7TT (cars) (cars) (cars) 96 322 93 1,371 582 82 2,063 2,685 3,403 1,214 1,042 3 ,2 4 6 f 3,431 724 723 13,454 2,547 226,417 567,850 333,755 Crop Y ear r > r C a len d ar Y ear ■ ì T o F e b r u a r y 28, 1 9 2 5 ................................ . 16,025 (2 2 .6 )$ T o F e b r u a r y 29, 1 9 2 4 ................................ . 23,907 6,868 ( 3 3 .6 )$ 8,407 35,106 (7 6 .3 ) 53,852 14,992 2,471 215,083 558,666 368,827 (1 6 .6 ) F iv e - Y e a r A v e r a g e to F e b r u a r y 2 8 . . . 19,037 (1 6 .6 ) (1 8 .2 ) 9,380 (2 2 .5 ) (8 1 .6 ) 42,5 7 5 f 12,790 (7 9 .6 ) 2,201 187,922 425,789 365,126 F ig u r e s in p a re n th e se s in d ica te p e r c e n ta g e o f n e w c r o p o n ly . flF o u r -y e a r a v e r a g e . * * A t e n d o f m o n th . * S e a s o n b e g in s J u ly 1st. § S e a s o n b e g in s N o v e m b e r 1st. f T h r e e -y e a r a v e r a g e . $ R e v is e d o n D e c e m b e r 1, 1924, e stim a te o f p r o d u c t io n . 20 March, 1925 M O N TH LY REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS Industrial Activity During February industrial activity in the district continued at levels slightly below those of a year ago. A corresponding decline in volume of employment is indicated by statistics for two states, California and Oregon, and by available non-statistical evidence for other states of the district. As compared with Janu ary, 1925, February figures show little change either in volume of production or of employ ment. (Employment data for California and Oregon are presented in Table “ B.” ) The lumber industry of the district was less active during February, 1925, than during January, 1925, or February, 1924. Demand has been smaller in volume than a year ago and reporting mills have curtailed production ac cordingly, their total output in February being less than the amount of new orders placed with them during that month. Shipments continued in excess of production and of orders, so that stocks and unfilled orders held by reporting mills were further reduced. Figures follow: L U M B E R A C T IV IT Y * F e b ., 1925 Jan., 1925 F e b ., 1924 Jan., 1924 (board feet) (board fe e t) (board feet) P r o d u c t io n ........................... 524,379 S h ip m e n ts ............................ 556,735 O rd e rs ................................... 535,760 U n fille d O rd e rs ............... 474,812 N o . o f M ills R e p o r t in g . 180 * A s re p o r te d b y fo u r a s s o c ia tio n s . 523 ,932 580 ,797 536,869 501 ,049 182 528,175 575 ,934 629 ,300 596,008 197 (0 0 0 o m it t e d .) National production of non-ferrous metals representing, in large part, production of this district, was smaller during February, 1925, than during January, 1925, but was larger than during February, 1924. Figures follow: N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T IO N O F N O N -F E R R O U S MILLIONS OF BOARD FEET (board fe et) 586 ,050 620,421 573,624 569 ,978 203 F e b ., 1925 C o p p e r ( lb s .) (m in e p r o d u c t io n ) ............................... 138 ,772,000 S ilv e r ( o z .) ( c o m m e r c ia l b a r s ) ....................................... 5,077,000 Z in c ( t o n s ) ( s l a b ) ............... 46,811 M ETALS Jan., 1925 F e b ., 1924 144 ,544,000 1 2 8 ,260 ,00 0 5,374,000 50,386 5,4 2 6 ,7 7 6 43,933 F ig u r e s fo r le a d are n o t a v a ila b le . L u m ber P rodu ction , O rd ers R e ce iv e d , and Shipm ents in T w elfth Federal R eserve D istrict as R ep orted by F o u r L u m ber A s s o cia tio n s, 1922-1925 (B ) Employment— t------ C a liforn ia ------ ^ Industries S to n e , C la y and G lass P r o d u c t s . /----------- O r e g o n ------------ ^ N o. of N o . of N o . <— E m p loyees —' N o. — E m p lo y e e s — of F e b ., Jan., of F e b ., Jan., F irm s 1925 1925 Firm s 1925 1925 42 7,316 ( — 3 .2 ) 7,557 35,945 (0 .2 ) 35,869 25,115 ( — 2 .7 ) 25,819 4,078 (1 .3 ) 4,025 14,327 (1 .6 ) 8,215 ( 0 .5 ) 14 1,997 ( — 5 .0 ) M e ta ls , M a c h in e r y a n d C o n v e y a n c e s 174 L u m b e r and W o o d M a n u fa c tu r e s . . 110 L e a th e r an d R u bber G o o d s .. 23 C h e m ic a ls , O ils , P a in ts , e t c ............ 31 14,095 P r in t in g 67 8,176 ................... T e x t i l e s .................... 5 53 256 ( — 3 .0 ) 264 15,284 ( — 5 .7 ) 16,214 2,102 4 836 (4 .5 ) 800 65 7,624 ( 4 .0 ) 7,334 8 465 ( — 3 .5 ) 482 153 21,985 ( — 1 .4 ) 22,293 38 1,338 ( 0 .8 ) 1,327 A ll .... I n d u s t r ie s ____ 4 8,656 9,234 ( — 6 .3 ) 1,878 1,821 (3 .1 ) 697 137,136 138,325 ( — 0 .9 ) 14 .. 9 117 ... 433 ( — 4 .4 ) 18,612 ( — 4 .8 ) ... 453 19,540 F ig u r e s in p a re n th e se s in d ic a te p e r c e n t a g e in c re a s e o r d e c r e a s e ( — ) as c o m p a r e d w ith p r e v io u s m o n th . (barrels) 1 9 2 5 . . . 602,494 1 9 2 5 . . . 604,622 1 9 2 3 * .. 858,750 1 9 2 4 .. . 666,939 * P e a k o f p r o d u c t io n . t A u g u s t , 1924, s to c k s , .. F o o d , B ev era ges and T o b a c c o ... . M is c e lla n e o u s PETROLEUM Indicated A v e ra ge S tored N e w W e lls —s A v era ge D aily ^ S to ck s at D a ily D a ily C o n su m p tio n End of N u m b er P ro d u cP rodu ction (Shipm ents) M on th O pen ed tion F e b ., J a n ., S e p t., F e b ., C lo th in g , M illin e r y a n d L a u n d e r in g . W a t e r , L ig h t and P o w e r . . . . Average daily production of petroleum in California during February was 602,494 barrels, compared with 604,622 barrels in January. The figures for February were smaller than the re ported daily average for any month since Feb ruary, 1923, and were 29.8 per cent below the peak figures of September, 1923. Consumption of petroleum, although increasing during February, was less than production, and stored stocks continued to increase, reaching a new high point of 101,344,730 barrels on February 28, 1925. Current and comparative figures of the petro leum industry in California follow: (barrels) 558,801 530 ,688 i * (barrels) 101,344,730 100 ,121,316 $ 9 3 ,8 0 4 ,3 0 1 f (barrels) 65 28,170 62 21,286 93 139,960 102 44,471 t C o m p a r a b le fig u re s n o t a v a ila b le . The decline in flour production reported by 16 large milling companies of this district dur ing January, continued during February, 1925. Output during the later month was 15.2 per cent smaller in volume than in January, 1925, 28.2 per cent smaller than in February, 1924, and 15.2 per cent below the five-year average for February. Reduced production was accom panied by a decline for the month of 8.2 per cent in millers’ stocks of flour, which stood at 510,605 barrels at the end of February, an ap- March, 1925 proximately normal figure. Millers reported some further accumulation of wheat during February, but their stocks, at 2,823,484 bushels at the end of the month, were 19.8 per cent lower than a year ago and 10.5 per cent below the five-year average for February 28th. Com parative figures follow: F iv e -Y e a r A v era ge Jan. (1920-1924) 4 8 9 ,3 6 3 1 F L O U R M IL L IN G * O u tp u t ( b b l s .) S tock sî F lo u r ( b b l s . ) . . . W heat ( b u .).... 21 FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT SAN FRANCISCO Jan., 1925 489,357 F e b ., 1925 414,985 556,007 2,731,217 510,605 2,823,484 * A s r e p o r te d b y 16 co m p a n ie s . in g m o n th , f 1921-1925. F e b ., 1924 578,314 508,699 509,792 3,520,908 3,159,536 J A s o f the first d a y o f the fo ll o w Decreased activity in both domestic and ex port flour markets was reported in February as compared with January. Distribution of canned and dried fruits has continued seasonally active during recent months, and present carryover stocks are gen erally small in volume. Packers’ unsold hold ings of raisins and prunes, the two varieties of dried fruits in heaviest supply, are reported to be considerably smaller than a year ago. Early spring canning vegetables, chiefly spinach and asparagus, are now being packed in California. The value of building permits issued in 20 principal cities of this district during February, 1925, was larger by 3.8 per cent than in Janu ary, 1925, as compared with an estimated normal seasonal increase between these two months of approximately 17 per cent. The figures for February, 1925, were 16 per cent above the low point of June, 1924, and 4.5 per cent below the peak figure of February, 1924. District comparisons follow and detailed figures by cities are presented in Table “ C.” M ILLIONS OF D O L L A R S B U I L D I N G P E R M I T S I N 20 C I T IE S M on th in 1925 com pared with same M on th in M on th in 1925 com pared with preceding M on th ly Y e a r-to -d a te M on th N o. V a lu e N o. V a lu e N o. V a lu e F e b ru a r y .— 1 8 .0 % — 4 .5 % — 1 2 .7 % — 4 .9 % — 7 .2 % 3.8 % J a n u a ry . — 7 .1 % — 5 .3 % — 7 .1 % — 5 .3 % 2 1 .2 % — 0 .0 5 % f----------------------- 1924-----------------------■> V a lu e o f B u ilding P erm its— T e n C ities B i-M onthly Averages Corrected for Seasonal Variations T h e fig u re s r e p r e s e n te d b y th e a b o v e c h a r t d iffe r fr o m th o s e p resen ted in th e t e x t in th a t th e y a re b i-m o n t h ly a v e r a g e s , h a v e b e e n c o r r e c t e d f o r s e a so n a l v a r ia tio n s , an d are fo r 10 in ste a d o f 20 cities. C itie s f o r w h ic h fig u re s are in c lu d e d are B e r k e le y , L o s A n g e le s , O a k la n d , P a sa d e n a , P o r tla n d , S a lt L a k e C ity , S an F r a n c is c o , S ea ttle , S p o k a n e , an d T a c o m a . L a te s t fig u re s are f o r J a n u a r y -F e b r u a r y , 1925. Wholesale prices of building materials stood at 183 in February, 1925, compared with 179 in January,. 1925, and 182 in February, 1924, ac cording to the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics’ index. Building costs, including labor as well as materials, are estimated to be about 2.5 per cent less than a year ago. During January, 1925, sales of electric energy for industrial purposes were larger than in January, 1924, in all sections of the district ex cept the Pacific Northwest. As compared with December, 1924, all sections showed increased sales during January, 1925. Figures follow: E L E C T R IC E N E R G Y * T h is c h a r t is an e x te n s io n o f a c h a r t p u b lis h e d in th e J a n u a ry , 1924, R e v ie w o f E c o n o m i c S ta tis tic s , H a r v a r d E c o n o m ic S e r v ic e . C a lifo rn ia .............................................. P a c ific N o rth w e s t ........................... In te rm o u n ta in S t a t e s ...................... T w e lft h D is t r ic t ................................ ( C) Building PermitsF ebru ary, 1925 N o. V a lu e B e r k e le y ................. B o is e ........................ F r e s n o ..................... L o n g B e a c h .......... L o s A n g e le s ------ . . O a k la n d ................. O g d e n ...................... P a sa d en a ................ P h o e n ix ................. P o r tla n d ................. . . R e n o ........................ S a c r a m e n to .......... S alt L a k e C i t y . . . S an D i e g o .............. S an F r a n c is c o . . 110 291 669,639 58,695 201,041 1,520,892 10,884,244 3,540,141 54,850 509,656 409,351 3,504,680 50,325 1,966,158 472,700 1,0 28,360 3,871,487 465,585 2,052,105 344,851 306,750 737,645 210 54 135 525 5,344 1,025 23 314 99 1,312 10 267 94 443 794 101 866 183 111 307 ............... . . 10,021 $32,649,155 12,217 S ea ttle ..................... S p o k a n e ................. S t o c k t o n ................. T a c o m a ................... D is t r ic t 250 63 96 345 3,336 978 20 194 84 1,236 24 240 105 608 846 $ F ebru ary, 1924 N o. V a lu e $ 668,880 30,798 144,040 2,156,132 16,083,412 2 ,250,570 74,700 654,294 308,250 2,607,965 13,100 694,538 251,980 763,430 3,912,166 219,380 2,217,330 273,108 447,425 404,615 $34,176,113 Percentage increase or decrease (—*) in volum e o f sales, Jan., 1925, com pared with Jan., 1924 D e c ., 1924 7.7 0.4 — 0.08 1.2 2.8 1.1 5.2 0.7 N u m ber and D istrib u tion o f Industrial C on su m ers and A ctu a l V o lu m e o f Sales C a lifo rn ia ................... P a c ific N o r th w e s t . . In te r m o u n ta in S ta te s T ota l ........................ N um ber o f Industrial C on su m ers Industrial Sales K . W . H . Jan., Jan., Jan., Jan., 1925 1924 1925 1924 85,891 76,342 235 ,900 ,71 4 218,869,950 15,044 12,705 77,482,587 77,546,615 5,246 5,142 58,371,878 56,733,947 106,181 94,189 371,755,179 353 ,150,512 * A s r e p o r te d b y 20 c o m p a n ie s . General Business and Trade There was an increase in general business activity in this district during February, 1925, as compared with January, 1925, due allowance being made for the shortness of the later month 22 M a r c h , 1925 M O N TH LY REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS and for other seasonal factors. General busi ness activity is estimated to have been above normal in each of the past two months. These statements are best illustrated by figures of debits to individual accounts (bank debits) at banks in 21 principal cities of the district, which in February, 1925, reached record levels for that month. This bank's in dex of debits to individual accounts, corrected for seasonal variation, but not for price changes or year to year growth, stood at 149 for Febru ary and 138 for January (1919 monthly average=100). One year ago it stood at 147, the peak figure for 1924. February, 1924, and one, automobile tires, sales of which were at a relatively low point last year, showed an increase of 11.6 per cent. In January, 1925, value of sales of reporting wholesale dealers was approximately 1 per cent less than in January, 1924. Wholesale prices have increased over the year period, the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics' Index stand ing at 161 for February, 1925, compared with 152 for February, 1924. Detailed comparisons follow: W H OLESALE TRAD E BILLIONS OF DOLLARS A g r ic u ltu r a l Im p le m e n t s . A u t o m o b ile S u p p lie s . . . . A u t o m o b ile T ir e s ............ D r u g s ....................................... D r y G o o d s ........................... H a r d w a re . S hoes S ta tio n e r y N o . of Firm s 20 17 21 6 17 10 17 24 19 13 26 P ercentage increase or d ecrease (— ) - in V a lu e o f S a le s F e b ., 1925 F e b ., 1925 Jan., 1925 com pared com pared com pared w ith w ith w ith F e b ., 1924 Jan., 1925 Jan., 1924 0.9 61.2 7.1 — 9.0 — 9.6 — 2.4 — 28.4 31.0 11.6 4.3 — 10.3 10.8 — 21.1 — 8.0 — 13.3 4.6 — 3.2 4.0 — 10.2 5.0 — 8.0 — 2.2 — 7.6 — 14.4 — 9.1 4.8 — 5.7 — 18.2 15.2 — 15.5 — 3.2 — 9.8 — 16.1 Value of sales at retail as shown by reports of 32 department stores in principal cities of the district, was 5.0 per cent smaller during FebruINDEX NUMBERS B a n k D e b its in 21 P rincipal C itie s, T w elfth F ed era l R eserve D istrict. 1922-1925 Value of sales at wholesale as reported by 190 firms in eleven lines of business, was approxi mately 8 per cent less during February, 1925, than during January, 1925, or February, 1924. Seven of the eleven lines concerning which re ports of value of sales are available showed de creases for the year period, the declines rang ing from 7.6 per cent to 21.1 per cent. Three lines showed small increases as compared with ( D ) Bank Debits*- B o is e . . F resno O a k la n d . . . O g d e n ......... P a sa d e n a . . P h o e n ix . . . P o r tla n d . . . R e n o ............ S a c r a m e n to S a lt L a k e C S an D ie g o . S an F ra n cis ' S an J o se . . S eattle Spok ane . . . S tock ton . . T a com a Y a k im a ------ .$2 ,5 5 4 ,3 2 0 *000 omitted. D epartm ent Store Sales — T w e lfth D istrict F ebru ary, T w o M on th s F ebruary, 1924 1925 1924 1925 37,150 $ 18,086 $ $ 38,176 .$ 16,391 23,165 21,815 10,105 9,259 31,332 56,690 66,760 25,368 57,662 96,465 124,831 42,133 790,766 1,563,837 1,589,588 . 745,252 122,487 262,152 258,418 . 115,190 21,336 50,705 50,976 22,437 36,149 72,802 76,968 34,425 20,496 49,798 43,086 22,135 287,869 310,591 152,737 . 134,296 14,239 7,958 18,083 6,184 112,441 50,494 80,831 35,942 130,562 122,790 55,994 53,884 49,171 99,476 103,841 46,572 1,628,129 814,165 1,857,623 . 938,395 48,322 44,802 20,432 19,926 367,594 154,758 334,375 171,188 44,667 42,840 96,836 92,216 21,823 21,598 49,744 48,592 74,607 38,672 34,812 83,385 9,392 9,144 22,086 19,152 $2,521,733 $5,351,331 $5,180,237 Index of 32 Stores in 7 cities (1 9 1 9 — 1 0 0 ). Latest figures, February, with correction, 1 50 ; without correction, 115. ary, 1925, than during February, 1924, and 10.9 per cent smaller than during January, 1925. The decline as compared with the previous month was less than that which normally occurs at this time of the year, however, and this bank's index of retail trade, corrected for seasonal variations, advanced from 147 in January, 1925 (1919 monthly average=100), to 150 in February, 1925. The index stood at 159 in February, 1924, the highest point reached during that year. The index record, which is based on the dollar value of sales of 32 depart ment stores, is presented in the following table which shows the figures adjusted and unad justed for seasonal variations. The monthly M a r c h , 1925 average of sales during 1919 has been taken as 100 in both cases. IN D E X N U M B E R S O F D E P A R T M E N T ST O R E SA LE S (M onthly Average 1 9 1 9 = 1 0 0 ) W ith ou t Seasonal A djustm ent F e b ., F e b ., F e b ., F e b ., F e b ., F e b ., Sep t., O ct., N o v ., D e c ., Jan ., F e b ., 1919. 1920. 1921. 1922. 1923. 1924. 1924. 1924. 1924. 1924. 1925. 1925. Los A n geles .. 71 . . 105 . . 120 . . 117 . . 147 . . 183 , . 176 . . 218 . . 200 . . 335 , . 203 . 173 O ak land 67 93 97 79 94 108 126 160 138 243 119 110 W ith Seasonal A d justm ent F e b ., 1 9 1 9 .. 1 9 2 0 .. 130 124 1 9 2 1 .. 149 129 1 9 2 2 .. 144 105 182 1923. . 126 1924 . . 226 143 1 9 2 4 ... . 203 133 212 1 9 2 4 .. 147 201 1 9 2 4 .. 137 222 1 9 2 4 .. 146 214 1 9 2 5 .. 139 1925. . 213 146 San F ra n c is c o 71 88 95 82 100 114 125 146 138 221 115 104 92 115 124 108 131 149 135 135 133 137 130 136 Salt Lake C ity Seattle 71 55 76 67 85 62 66 54 71 65 79 75 109 101 121 111 107 104 177 173 91 78 80 73 Spo kane 61 75 82 68 73 82 92 117 95 148 69 73 D is trict* 67 88 95 84 103 121 132 159 145 239 129 115 99 105 118 92 99 110 110 102 101 114 111 112 110 118 98 106 119 90 88 91 98 96 106 115 124 111 135 159 143 147 146 153 147 150 85 105 96 85 102 116 93 101 106 110 105 114 *32 s tores. On February 28, 1925, savings deposits in 71 banks in seven cities of the district were larger by 11.0 per cent and 4.0 per cent, respectively, than on February 29, 1924, and on January 31, 1925. Figures follow: Per C en t increase or d e c r e a s e ( — ) F e b ., 1925, com pared with F e b ., F e b ., Jan., 1924* 1925 1924 8.0 14.1 $325,347 0.2 5.1 88,094 5.1 — 1.1 50,079 27,385 9.3 1.5 10.2 3.0 407,785 0.1 11.4 64,705 0.4 16,952 16.6 S A V IN G S A C C O U N T S N u m ber of Banks L o s A n g e le s . . 13 $ 7 O a k la n d ! ......... P o r tla n d .......... 9 S a lt L a k e C ity 8 San F r a n c is c o . 14 S e a t t l e ................ 14 6 S p o k a n e ............ T ota l 23 FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT A T SAN FRANCISCO F e b .. 1925* 371,291 $ 92,595 52,682 29,941 449,732 72,085 19,782 Jan., 1925* 343,777 92,352 53,269 29,493 436,3 66 71,944 19,685 . ______ 71 $1,088,108 $1,046,886 $980,347 11.0 4.0 *000 o m itte d , f l n c l u d e s o n e b a n k in B e r k e le y w h ic h w as f o r m e r ly a b r a n c h o f an O a k la n d ban k . Percentage increases or decreases (— ) in the number and liabilities of business failures in the Twelfth Federal Reserve District, as reported by R. G. Dun and Company, follow: N u m b e r o f B u s in e s s F a i l u r e s .. . L ia b ilitie s o f B u s in e s s F a ilu r e s . F e b ., 1925, com pared with F e b ., 1924 Jan.. 1925 — 0.5 — 25.5 . — 17.3 15.7 Prices Commodity prices at wholesale, as measured by the Bureau of Labor’s index of 404 commod ities, increased during February, but not so rapidly as in recent previous months. Among the commodity groups included in the index, price advances in building materials and fuel and lighting offset price declines of farm prod ucts and foods, while prices of remaining groups (cloths and clothing, metals and metal products, chemicals and drugs, and house fur nishing goods) were practically unchanged. The lower price level in the farm products and foods groups was the result, chiefly, of a con siderable decline in prices of grains, particu larly wheat, during February. The purchasing power of farm products in terms of other commodities declined by about one per cent during February, according to the index of the Department of Agriculture which is based upon the relation of farm prices of 30 selected products of the farm to prices of nonagricultural commodities. In February, 1925, this index was 6.1 per cent higher than in February, 1924. Commodity price movements in the Twelfth District during February were similar to those reported for the United States as a whole, the trend being slightly upward. Comparing pres ent prices with those of a year ago, a list of 30 selected commodities produced in this dis trict shows 23 advances, and six declines, one commodity showing no change over the year period. Prices of wheat and barley have declined steadily since reaching a peak late in January, but on the 18th of March were still, for wheat, 52.5 per cent and, for barley, 15.7 per cent higher than a year ago. The decline in wheat prices during the past month amounted to 22 cents per bushel, and on March 18, 1925, May wheat at Chicago sold for $1.64 a bushel, or 41^2 cents per bushel lower than the high point reached on January 30, 1925. Prices of cattle, sheep, and hogs increased, and the price of lambs declined during February. Chicago quo tations for hogs on March 7th were 12.2 per cent higher than one month ago and 59.5 per (jE) Commodity Prices— C om m od ity W h o le s a le P r ic e s ( U . S . B u re a u o f L a b o r ) 1 9 1 3 = 1 0 0 ....................................... P u r c h a sin g P o w e r o f F a rm P r o d u c t s ( U . S. D e p a r tm e n t o f A g r i c u l t u r e ) ! H o g s ................................ W e e k ly a v e r a g e p r ic e at C h ic a g o ...................................... L a m b s ............................. W e e k ly a v e ra g e p r ice at C h ic a g o ...................................... W h e a t ............................. C h ic a g o c o n tr a c t p rice fo r M a y w h e a t . ....................... C o tto n ............................ M id d lin g U p la n d s — W e e k ly ra n g e o f s p o t q u o ta R a is in s ............................ L o o s e M u s c a te l in 25-lb. b o x e s f. o. b. C a lifo rn ia . W o o l ................................A v e r a g e o f 98 q u o ta tio n s at B o s t o n ................................. C o p p e r ............................ E le c t r o ly t ic , m o n th ly a v e r a g e at N e w Y o r k ............. L e a d .................................M o n t h ly a v e r a g e at N e w Y o r k .......................................... S i l v e r ............................... M o n t h ly a v e r a g e at N e w Y o r k .......................................... L u m b e r ( s o f t w o o d ) . .W e e k ly I n d e x , U . S . * ............................................................. U nit 100 lb s. 100 lb s. 100 lb s. bu. lb . lb . lb . lb . lb . oz. M ar. 6, 1925 161.0 87 . $10.10 13.00 17.05 1 .8 0 ^ -1 .9 6 ^ 2 5 .3 0 -2 6 .0 0 0 .09M 101.22 4 14.463$ 9.428^ 68.4720 31.65 O n e M on th A g o 160.0 88 $9.25 10.60 18.20 1 .8 5 -1 .9 4 H O ne Y ea r A g o 152.0 82 $9.60 7.35 15.50 1 .1 0 * 4 -1 .l i H 2 3 .7 5 -2 4 .5 5 0 •09*4 102.040 14.7090 10.1690 68.4470 31.68 2 8 .8 8 -2 9 .6 3 0 N ot qu oted 82.470 12.7080 8.5540 64.3590 32.36 * A s p u b lis h e d b y th e “ L u m b e r M a n u fa c tu r e r and D e a le r .” t R a t i o o f fa rm p r ic e s ( A u g u s t , 190 9-J u ly, 1 9 1 4 = 1 0 0 ) t o w h o le s a le p r ic e s o f n o n -a g r ic u ltu r a l c o m m o d it ie s (1 9 1 0 -1 9 1 4 = 1 0 0 ). 24 March, 1925 M O N TH LY REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS cent higher than one year ago. An average of 98 wool quotations on the Boston market, which has been declining since the last week in January, was 2.6 per cent below the peak on March 14th, and 21.7 per cent higher than a year ago. The spot price of middling uplands cotton at New Orleans, which reached a peak of 35.5 cents per pound during the first week of January, 1924, and a low point of 22.15 cents per pound on October 15, 1924, was quoted at 25.45 cents per pound on March 14, 1925. Prices of copper, lead, and zinc declined 2, 7, and 5 per cent, respectively, during February as compared with January, but were 14, 10, and 11 per cent higher, respectively, than one year ago. Silver prices changed little during the month, and were still higher than at the begin ning of 1924. Details of price movements for a selected group of products of the district, and represen tative index numbers of the general price level are presented in Table “E.” higher than ever before. Changes occurring in the principal items of the combined statement of reporting member banks in this district (rep resenting approximately 52 per cent of the dis trict's banking resources) during the month and year ending March 11, 1925, are presented in the following table (000,000 omitted) : T o t a l L o a n s ...................... C o m m e r c ia l L o a n s . . . . In v e s tm e n ts ....................... D e m a n d D e p o s it s .......... T o t a l D e p o s i t s .................. B o r r o w in g s fr o m F e d e ra l R e s erv e B a n k ............... C on dition M ar. 11, 1925 $1,094 866 421 802 1,526 15 C h an ge from O n e M o n th A go* + 2 2 ( 2 .1 % ) + 1 9 ( 2 .2 % ) — 20 ( 4 . 5 % ) — 3 ( 0 .4 % ) + 1 1 ( 0 .7 % ) C h an ge from O ne Y ear A go* + 78 ( 7 .7 % ) + 53 ( 6 .5 % ) + 76 ( 2 2 . 0 % ) + 66 ( 9 .0 % ) + 1 8 7 (1 4 .0 % ) + 5 — (5 0 .0 % ) 12 ( 4 4 .4 % ) * F ig u r e s in p a ren th eses in d ica te p e r c e n ta g e ch a n g e s. MILLIONS OF DOLLARS Banking and Credit Situation Banking and credit statistics for February reflect increasing business activity in this dis trict. Commercial loans of reporting member banks increased by $19,000,000 or 2.2 per cent during the four weeks ending March 11, 1925. InvestMILLIONS OF DOLLARS M e m b e r B ank C r e d it— T w elfth D istrict Figures for 70 member banks in leading cities, as of last Wednesday of each month. Latest figure. February 25. ment holdings of these banks decreased by $20,000,000 or 4.5 per cent during this period, and their demand deposits declined slightly. Concurrence of these three movements is the normal expectation in a period of increasing business activity, when loans are already at a high level. Total loans of reporting member banks, at $1,094,000,000 on March 11th, were R eserve Bank C red it — T w elfth D istrict Figures for Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, as of last W ednesday of each month. Latest figure, February 25. Discounts at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco increased by $6,000,000 (43.3%) during the four weeks ending March 18, 1925. Holdings of United States securities and of purchased acceptances declined by $6,000,000 (15.4%) and $16,000,000 (36.4%), respectively, during the same period. Total earning assets were approximately $15,000,000 (14.9%) less on March 18th than on February 18,1925. Total reserves increased from $272,000,000 to $282,000,000 during these four weeks, and Federal reserve note circulation increased from $194,000,000 to $195,000,000. Changes in significant items in the statement of condition of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco during the month and year end ing March 18, 1925, are presented in the fol lowing table (000,000 omitted) : C on dition M a r. 18, 1925 T o t a l E a rn in g A s s e t s . . . . $ 86 24 D is c o u n ts ............................ 33 U n it e d S ta te s S e c u r itie s , P u rc h a s e d A c c e p t a n c e s 28 284 T o t a l R e s e r v e s ................. 163 T o t a l D e p o s it s ................. . F e d e ra l R e s e r v e N o te 195 C ir c u la tio n ..................... . C h an ge from O n e M on th A g o* — 15 ( 1 4 .9 % ) + 6 ( 3 3 .5 % ) — 6 (1 5 .4 % ) — 16 ( 3 6 .4 % ) + 12 ( 4 .4 % ) — 3 ( 1 .8 % ) C h an ge from O ne Y ear A go* — 6 ( 6 .5 % ) — 25 ( 5 1 . 2 % ) + 8 (3 2 .0 % ) + 9 (4 7 .4 % ) + 5 ( 1 .8 % ) + 8 ( 5 .2 % ) + + 10 ( 4 . 9 % ) 1 ( 0 .5 % ) * F ig u r e s in p a re n th e s e s in d ic a te p e r c e n t a g e ch a n g e s . Interest rates in this district during the early part of March were generally unchanged from those quoted early in February. F in a n c ia l C o n d itio n s in t h e T w elfth F ed er a l R ese r v e D ist r ic t hy JOHN PERRIN , Chairman of the Board and Federal Reserve Agent Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco San Francisco, California, March 20, 1925 SU R VE Y of financial conditions in the Twelfth Federal Reserve District based upon reports of condition of all banks (State and National) as of December 31, 1924, is presented herewith in comparison with a similar survey made a year ago on December 31, 1923. Considering the district as a whole, comparison of the two surveys shows moderate improvement in financial conditions during the year 1924, with a continuance of the generally sound banking situation revealed by figures of the 1923 survey. Some shifting of compara tive banking strength within the district oc curred during the year, important, though small, agricultural areas in south central and southern California and in Arizona, showing a loss of banking strength, while large areas in Pacific Northwestern States and in Utah, im proved their condition. A As in previous surveys, the ratio of total loans and discounts to total deposits of all banks, State and National, in a given area was used in determining the financial condition of that area. Where the total of loans and dis counts was less than 80 per cent of total de posits, financial conditions were characterized as “good” (colored blue on accompanying maps) ; where the ratio was between 80 per cent and 100 per cent, financial conditions were characterized as “fair” (colored yellow on maps) ; and where the ratio was over 100 per cent, financial conditions were characterized as “poor” (colored green on maps). This study relates primarily to conditions in the agricultural regions of the district, as have previous studies. The following summary, which excludes figures for the cities of Berke ley, Los Angeles, Oakland, Portland, Salt Lake City, San Francisco, Seattle, and Spokane, shows the improvement in condition since the end of 1921: P R O P O R T I O N O F T O T A L D E P O S I T S O F B A N K S IN C O L O R E D A R E A S T O T O T A L D E P O S IT S O F A L L CO U N TR Y BANKS D e c . 31, 1924 D e c . 31, 1923 D e c . 29, 1922 D e c . 31, 1921 “Good” Areas ........ 88.6% “Fair” A re a s........ 8.7% “Poor” Areas ........ 2.7% 87.9% 10.0% 2.1% 89.0% 7.4% 3.6% 80.3% 12.7% 7.0% Total deposits of all banks included in the above summary— the so-called country banks— were, on December 31, 1924, approximately 40 per cent of all bank deposits in the Twelfth Federal Reserve District. The ratio of total loans and discounts to total deposits of these country banks was, on December 31, 1924, 68.6 per cent compared with 68.3 per cent on De cember 31, 1923. Total deposits in banks in the eight cities mentioned above were approximately 60 per cent of total bank deposits in the district. The ratio of combined loans to deposits of these city banks was 63.7 per cent on December 31, 1924, compared with 67.6 per cent on Decem ber 31, 1923. The above figures indicate that financial conditions generally are “good” in the principal cities of the district and in those agricultural areas in which more than 88 per cent of the banking resources of the agricultural sections are to be found. F IN A N C IA L C O N D IT IO N S in the TW ELFTH FED ER AL RESERVE D IS T R IC T As of December 31, 1923 LEGEND I g o o d R e d is c o u n t T w elfth O p e r a t io n s F ederal in R eserve t h e D is t r ic t C O M P A R A T IV E R E D ISC O U N T O PERATIONS, 1920-1925 (Borrowings of City and Country Member Banks) (As o f the en d o f each m on th ) NOTE: City banks include all member banks in Berkeley, Los Angeles, Oakland, Portland, Salt Lake City, San Francisco, Seattle, and Spokane. Country banks include all other member banks. BORROWINGS FROM TH E FED ER AL R ESER VE B A N K AN D W H O LE SALE PRICES D ate C ity Bank B orrow ing s $ 62,088,000 1920-1921 1922-1923 Low Point. 1923 Peak 1924 Low Point C o u n try Bank B orrow ing s $21,978,000 A ll M e m b e r B ank B orrow in g s U nited States Bureau o f L a b or W h o le sa le P rice In d ex (191 3 = 1 0 0 ) $ 84,066,000 233 O ct. 5. 1920 A u g . 23, 1921 O ct. 5.1920 M a y , 1920 $116,286,000 $68,985,000 $174,699,000 247 A u g . 8, 1922 D e c . 11,1923 Jan. 16,1923 Jan., 1922 $ 8,264,000 $18,430,000 $ 35,576,000 138 O ct. 2,1923 A u g . 28, 1923 O ct. 2.1923 M a r .-A p r il $ 64,269,000 $32,698,000 $ 92,092,000 159 D e c . 9, 1924 N o v . 18, 1924 June $ 2,076,000 Sept. 9, 1924 $ 8,615,000 $ 11,256,000 145 $ 13,593,000 $10,884,000 $ 24,477,000 Feb. 161
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