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M O N T H L Y R E V IE W OF B U S IN E S S C O N D IT IO N S JOHN PERRIN, Chairman of the Board and Federal Reserve Agent Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Vol. VIII San Francisco, California, March 20, 1924 Summary of National Conditions Employment at industrial establishments in creased during February, and the output of basic commodities was slightly larger than in the previous month. Distribution, both at wholesale and at retail, continued large. W h ole sale prices were somewhat higher than in Jan uary, and there was a further increase in the volume of borrowing for commercial purposes. Production. The Federal Reserve Board’s index of production in basic industries, adjusted to allow for the length of the month and for other seasonal variations, increased less than 1 per cent in February. Production of pig iron, steel ingots, and flour increased, while mill con No. 3 sumption of cotton and production of cement and lumber declined. Factory employment ad vanced 1 per cent in February, follow ing suc cessive decreases during the three preceding months. Increases in working forces were re ported by most industries, and were particu larly large at iron and steel plants, automobile factories, and textile finishing establishments. Fuller employment, through reduction of parttime work, was also indicated by an increase of over 5 per cent in average weekly earnings of workers in reporting establishments. Building activity was slightly less than in January, though contracts awarded were 7 per cent larger than a year ago. PER CENT Production in Basic Industries Index of 22 basic commodities corrected for seasonal variation (1919=100). Latest figure, February, 121. Wholesale Prices Indexof U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (1913=100, base adopted by Bureau). Latest figure, February, 152. Those desiring this review sent them regularly will receive it without charge upon application. 34 M arch, 1924 M O N T H L Y REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS Trade. Railroad shipments during February were in greater daily volume than in January, and carloadings of practically all important commodities were larger than a year ago. The daily average volume of wholesale business in creased about 5 per cent in February, but was slightly smaller than a year ago. Sales of meat, PER CENT Government securities, so that total earning assets were at about the same level as in Feb ruary. Federal Reserve note circulation con tinued to decline, while the total amount of money in circulation increased. Easier money conditions were reflected in a slight decline in rates for commercial paper to Ay2 per cent, and MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 Factory Employment Index for 33 Manufacturing: Industries (1919=100). Latest figure, February, 99. Reserve Bank Credit Weekly figures for 12 Federal Reserve Banks. Latest figure, March 19. dry goods, and hardware were larger than in February, 1923, while sales of shoes were smaller. Department store sales during Febru ary averaged about the same in daily volume as in January, and were about 8 per cent larger than a year ago. Merchandise stocks at these stores at the end of the month were 6 per cent above last year’s level. Business of mail order houses and chain stores also showed increased activity during February as compared with January. Prices. W holesale prices as measured by the index of the Bureau of Labor Statistics ad vanced slightly in February. Prices of fuel, metals, and building materials increased, while prices of farm products, clothing, and chemicals declined. During the first two weeks in March price declines occurred in wheat, cotton, silk, hides, and rubber, and price advances in hogs, copper, and crude petroleum were reported. Bank credit. The volume of borrowing for commercial purposes at member banks of lead ing cities in the early part of March continued the increase which began in the latter part of January, and on March 12th total loans of the reporting banks were higher than at any time since the seasonal peak at the turn of the year, and about $275,000,000 higher than a year ago. A t the Federal reserve banks, during the fourweek period ending March 19th, a further de cline in the volume of discounts for member banks and of acceptance holdings was offset by an increase in the holdings of United States also in lower rates for bankers’ acceptances and reduced yields on Treasury Certificates. The March offering of $400,000,000 of one-year Treasury Certificates, bearing interest at 4 per cent, as compared with 4^4 per cent on a similar issue sold in December, was over-subscribed. Summary of District Conditions Steady expansion of business activity in this district continued during February, and by the close of that month the high levels of 1923 had been reached or surpassed. Distribution and trade, in particular, are substantially more ac tive than a year ago. Production has been of large volume, notwithstanding recent curtail ments of operations in lumbering and copper mining, the result of a temporary excess of output over current consumption. Credit for financing business has been abundant, and rates of interest relatively low. Checks drawn against individual accounts (bank debits) at banks in 20 clearing house centers, the best index of general business con ditions in the district, were 20.4 per cent greater during February, 1924, than during February, 1923. After making due allowance for the normal annual growth of business, this increase still indicates an unusual gain in the total volume of trade. Building enterprise, one of the chief factors affecting general business conditions, has been more than seasonally active, and continuance of activity at high M arch, 1924 FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT A T SAN FRANCISCO levels is indicated by the figures of building permits issued during February. They were 26.3 per cent greater in number and 18.5 per cent greater in value than during February, 1923, itself a record month in the industry in this district. Building materials prices, accord ing to the index of the United States Bureau of Labor, stood at 182 (1913 prices equal 100) in February, 0.6 per cent above the figure for January, but 5.2 per cent below the February, 1923, figure. O f principal interest among factors relating to the productive industries of the district was the reported curtailment of lumber and copper output during the latter part of February, although production of both of these com m odi ties has continued at high levels. Lumber mills of the district, temporarily at least, have pro duced more lumber than the market will readily absorb at prevailing prices, and a reduc tion in output has followed. Producers of copper have faced a similar situation and are now reported to have adopted a similar remedy. Production of other principal metals has changed little, although non-statistical re ports indicate some expansion in output of lead. Production of petroleum in California was 1.2 per cent smaller during February than during January, continuing the downward trend apparent since last September. Con sumption of petroleum Increased 4.2 per cent during the month, and almost equalled pro duction, so that stored stocks increased by a smaller amount than in any month of the past year, except December, 1923. Unemployment during February, 1924, was reported to be slightly larger in volume than during February, 1923, as a result of declining demand for un skilled labor in agriculture and the lumbering and mining industries. Trade at retail, as reported by 35 department stores in six principal cities of the district, was 17.7 per cent greater in value during February, 1924, than during February, 1923. Stocks held by these stores at 1he close of the month were 9.2 per cent larger by value than stocks held a year ago, but were m oving from dealers’ shelves faster than in the earlier year. Trade at wholesale improved during February, eight of the eleven lines of business for which this bank collects figures showing increases in value of sales over a year ago. Decreases in value of sales of two of the three remaining lines appeared to be largely the result of price declines over the year period. The general level of prices changed little during February, the index number of the United States Bureau of Labor standing at 152 (1913 prices equal 100) compared with 35 151 a month ago and 157 a year ago. Irregu larity characterized the movement of prices of the principal products of this district. Notable general changes were advances in prices of livestock and metals and declines in prices of grains and lumber. Moderate increases in credit needs of the district appeared during the month, total loans of reporting member banks rising approxi mately $15,000,000 during the four weeks end ing March 5th. Such loans are now at the highest point reached since January, 1921, when they were first reported separately on member bank statements. Member banks have not found it necessary, thus far, to increase materially their borrowings from the Federal Reserve Bank, whose total rediscounts have fluctuated between 40 and 50 millions of dollars. A t $43,893,000 on March 12th they were $2,000,000 larger than one month ago, and approximately equal to the total reported a year ago. Interest rates, in view of the abun dance of funds available for financing business, have continued relatively low. San Francisco banks report that the prevailing rate charged on customers’ prime commercial paper of 90 days maturity was S y 2 per cent during the week ending March 15, 1924, compared with 6 y2 per cent during March a year ago. Banks in other cities of the district report similar ease in interest rates. Agriculture Although weather conditions during the late winter and early spring have been favorable to agriculture over the larger part of the district, principal interest at the present time attaches to those regions in California and the Inter mountain States where the supply of rainfall has been so scant as to imperil the growth of crops. The situation has been particularly acute in sections of south central and southern Cali fornia. On irrigated lands in these districts farmers have already begun to water their prin cipal crops. The supply of water for irrigation purposes, although reported sufficient to satisfy urgent needs for some time to come, must soon be supplemented by additional rainfall if a shortage is to be avoided during later months of the year, as an abnormally light fall of snow in the mountains has reduced the future supply of water at its source. Growth of early sown crops on unirrigated lands has been retarded by lack of moisture in the soil, and the extent of further plantings on such lands will depend largely upon the amount of rain falling during the latter part of March and the first weeks of April. An approximate measure of progress made in marketing those portions of the district’s 36 chief crops still held within its boundaries is presented in Table “ A .” W heat exports from Pacific Northwestern ports to March 1st of the present crop year were slightly more than 50 per cent greater in volume than during the same period of the previous season, the propor tion of the crop shipped, however, being ap proximately the same in each year. On the same date (M arch 1, 1924), the United States Department of Agriculture estimated that stocks of wheat, from the record 1923 crop, held on farms in the Twelfth District were greater in volume, and represented a larger proportion o f the crop, than stocks of 1922 crop wheat held on farms on March 1, 1923. Corresponding fig ures for the United States declined slightly as compared with a year ago. A statistical sum mary of the wheat situation in the Pacific Northwest (Idaho, Oregon, and W ashington) as of March 1, 1924, fo llo w s : „ , , Bushels 1923 Crop— Pacific N orth w est..........................118,665,000 W h e a t Exports— Portland and Puget So u n d .. 23,874,315 W h eat Exports (as flour)— Portland and Puget S o u n d .. 19,806,210 Domestic Shipments (wheat and wheat as flour)— Portland and Puget S o u n d .. 7,350,254 Total Reported M ovem ent (domestic and foreign) ................................................. Indicated balance for consumption within Pacific Northwest during entire 19231924 crop year, and for domestic and for eign shipments during remainder of present crop year.............................................. O f the indicated balance shown above, the amount held on farms w a s........................... ever, that holdings of apples in cold storage at Eastern consuming centers are large, and that demand has been sluggish. The movement of California citrus fruits to market continued at normal levels during February. Steady domestic demand and a slightly larger volume of export sales than was reported a year ago have characterized the market for canned fruit products during recent months. Commercial factors state that unsold stocks now held in the district are normal when con sidered in relation to the 1923 pack, and esti mate that in actual cases the total carryover is somewhat smaller than one year ago. Dried fruit markets were relatively active during Feb ruary and early March. The heavy foreign de mand for dried fruit, noted in the February Review, continued, and packers have been able to effect a substantial reduction in their hold ings of the lower grades of principal dried fruit products. Livestock— Anim al Products Weather, range, and pasture conditions in this district, excepting the southern half of California and restricted areas in the desert sections of southwestern Utah and Arizona, have favored all branches of the livestock in51,030,779 04) Movement o f Crops to Market* T W E L F T H F E D E R A L R E S E R V E D IS T R IC T 1923-1924 Season to 67,634,221 15,511,000 The balance of 67,634,221 bushels indicated in this summary includes wheat already con sumed and yet to be consumed within these three states, and no allowance is made for carry over, either at the beginning or at the end of the crop year, nor for domestic shipments other than those made by water through Portland and Puget Sound cities. Barley exports from San Francisco, up to March 1st of the present season, have been ap proximately 40.6 per cent smaller in volume than during the same period last year. The relatively large supply of barley available for domestic consumption as a result of the small export movement is, however, being marketed steadily, slightly smaller stocks of barley being reported on farms on March 1, 1924, than on March 1, 1923. Uniformly large monthly ship ments of apples have been forwarded from this district during the present marketing season, the total exceeding by 37.2 per cent and 10.7 per cent, respectively, the reported shipments during the two previous seasons. Reports re ceived from commercial factors indicate, how- March, 1924 M O N T H L Y R EVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS 1922-1923 Season to 1921-1922 Season to W h eat E x p o rtsf Feb. 28,1922 Feb. 29, 1924 Feb. 28,1923 Portland and Puget 23,874,315 15,695,331 33,762,712 S o u n d ......... (bu.) (15.8) (27.6) (16.7)H Barley E x p o rtsf 8,407,198 14,154,548 14,844,335 San Francisco (bu.) (18.2) (31.2) (37.9) W h eat— Stocks on Farm s, March 1st Tw elfth D ist.. (bu.) 18,284,000 10,102,000 12,430,000 (10.2) (9.8) (12.8) United States.(bu.) 133,871,000 153,134,000 134,253,000 (16.5) (17.0) (17.9) Barley— Stocks on Farm s, March 1st Tw elfth D ist..(b u .) 3,517,000 3,653,000 4,452,000 (7.8) (11.0) (8.0) 44,844,000 43,592,000 42,294,000 (23.4) (22.6) (27.3) Apple Shipm entsf Twelfth D is.(cars) 53,032 38,667 47,924 (91.8) (85.8) (93.9) Orange Shipments$ 11,506 California ...(c a r s ) 12,793 14,405 (29.1) (37.3) (§) Lem on Shipments^ 2,324 California ...(c a r s ) 2,486 2,113 (22.3) (19.5) (21.6) ^Figures in parentheses indicate percentage o f crop, tSeason begins July 1st. ¿Season begins November 1st. § Estimate o f total crop not available. ^Figures reported in February Review have been revised as fol low s: Exports 21,941,496 bushels, per cent o f crop 15.0. March, 1924 FEDERAL RESERVE AG EN T AT SAN FRANCISCO dustry during the past month. Showers falling over a large part of California early in March improved feed conditions in that state, but pas tures and grazing lands, both there and in cer tain sections of the Intermountain States, need more moisture to insure a normal seasonal sup ply of green feed this spring and of dry grass during the approaching summer. Shearing of w ool will soon commence in many sheep rais- mary of cold storage holdings of butter and eggs in the chief markets of the Twelfth Dis trict and the United States is presented in the follow ing table: M ar. 1, 1924 146,887 Feb. 1, 1924 436,840 M ar. 1, 1923 378,764 Five-Y ear Average M ar. 1st 381,840 9,837,000 15,246,000 8,910,000 21,071,000 1,537 44,000 13,827 500,000 1,352 13,000 § 25,000 Butter (pounds) ♦Twelfth District United States . . . Eggs (cases) fT w elfth District U nited States . . . THOUSANDS 37 *Four markets. fS ix markets. § Figures not available. Receipts of Livestock at Eight of the Principal Markets of the District 1923-1924. (L o s Angeles, Ogden, Portland, Salt Lake City, San Francisco, Seattle, Spokane, and Tacoma included) ing sections of the district, and w ool growers report that weather and range conditions dur ing the past fall and winter have promoted the growth of excellent fleeces. Lambing is pro gressing satisfactorily in the early lambing areas of California and Arizona, although there have been some losses in the central valleys of California due to the prevailing shortage of green feed in that state. The movement of livestock to market, as in dicated by total receipts of all classes of meat animals at eight principal markets of the dis trict during February and January, 1924, and February, 1923, is given in the follow ing table. (T he four-year average for February is in cluded for comparative purposes) : L I V E S T O C K R E C E IP T S A T E I G H T M A R K E T S Cattle Calves Hogs Sheep February, 1 9 2 4 ... 77,677 January, 1 9 2 4 ... 98,489 February, 1 9 2 3 ... 69,919 4-year average— 65,460 17,082 21,385 15,683 264,792 293,874 176,203 197,064 171,763 185,242 13,007 177,958 177,414 Butter production in California, where more than half of the butter manufactured in this district is produced, continued below seasonal levels during February, necessitating further heavy withdrawals from cold storage stocks. Normal seasonal supplies of eggs moved into marketing channels during the month. A sum In general, average prices of all classes of live stock in the district’s chief markets advanced slightly during February, although cattle prices at Intermountain markets declined during the last week of the month. W ool buyers are re ported to be offering growers from 38 to 45 cents per pound for w ool of the 1924 clip, varia tions in price depending upon the quality of w ool and the cost of transportation to terminal markets. Commercial factors estimate that early season sales have been smaller in volume and contracts for future sales less freely made this year than a year ago, when prices to growers ranged from 30 to 45 cents per pound. Figures are now available showing United States Department of Agriculture estimates of w ool production, by states in this district and for the United States, during 1923, and these figures, together with comparable figures for four previous years, are given in the following table: W O O L P R O D U C T IO N * 1919 1920 1921 (pounds) (pounds) (pounds) 1922 (pounds) 1923 (pounds) Arizona ......... 5,400 4,800 5,000 6,000 5,798 C a lifo r n ia .... 15,217 14,300 14,070 13,455 14,181 Idaho .............. 22,145 18,650 16,800 16,642 15,455 Nevada .......... 7,750 7,500 7,000 7,650 7,942 O regon ......... 16,039 14,435 14,435 12,992 13,200 U t a h ................ 17,000 16,150 16,500 16,800 17,210 W ashington . 5,779 5,201 4,421 3,802 4,409 12th District. 89,330 81,036 78,226 77,431 78,195 U nited States. 298,258 277,905 273,064 264,560 266,110 *000 omitted. The small increase in wool production dur ing 1923, both in this district and in the United States, checking as it did the downward trend of production apparent during recent years, re flects the improved market position of wool which has obtained during the past year and a half. Rapidly increasing demand for w ool in the United States has, since 1920, when 578,800,000 pounds were consumed, carried con sumption by domestic mills to the record fig ures of 817,651,000 pounds in 1922 and 802,003,000 pounds in 1923, grease equivalent weight. This increase in consumption, accompanied as it has been during all but the most recent year 38 M O N T H L Y REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS by declining production, has necessitated a large increase in imports of foreign wools. The situation is presented graphically in the accom panying chart. An epidemic of hoof and mouth disease ap peared in four San Francisco Bay counties of California during February. Measures promptly taken by Federal and State authorities to con trol the outbreak included slaughter of infected M IL L IO N S OF POUNDS 900 6 0 0 7 0 0 6 0 0 5 0 0 M arch, 1924 prices to lower levels than reported at this time last year. Quotations for all classes of livestock on the Chicago market advanced during Feb ruary, and beef cattle, sheep, and lambs are now selling at higher prices than one year ago. Cotton prices, which during recent months had advanced to the highest levels since 1920, de clined during February, cash middling uplands cotton being quoted at 29.63 cents per pound at New Orleans on March 7th, compared with 33.63 cents on February 1st. The average of 98 w ool quotations at Boston advanced approxi mately 1 *4 cents per pound during February and, at 82.47 cents per pound, stood slightly higher than one year ago. Beet sugar prices at San Francisco moved upward from $8.65 per 100 pounds on January 31st to $8.90 per 100 pounds on February 13th, later (M arch 19th) dropping to $8.40 per 100 pounds, and advanc ing to $8.60 per 100 pounds on March 21st. Moderate advances in prices of several im portant fresh and dried fruits of the district IN D E X NUMBERS 4 0 0 3 0 0 200 IOO Production of W ool in the Twelfth Federal Reserve District and the United States and Total Consumption of W ool in the United States, 1919-1923 _____ *Includes consumption of carryover stocks of foreign and domestic wool from previous year and of foreign wool imported during the year indicated. animals, quarantine of infected counties, and temporary restrictions upon th'e shipment of livestock to and from California markets. The disease is reported to be under control, and re strictions upon the movement of livestock are slow ly being removed. Prices Prices for the majority of the principal live stock and agricultural products of this district tended upward during February. Grain prices did not follow the general trend, however, losses in February partially offsetting the gains noted during January. The contract price for May wheat at Chicago dropped one-half cent per bushel during the month, and declines of 5 cents and 10 cents per bushel, respectively, were recorded in cash prices of shipping barley and cleaned California rice at San Francisco. The downward movement carried wheat and barley ______ Wholesale Prices and the Cost of Living, 1920-1924 United States Bureau of Labor Index of Wholesale Prices (1913=100) National Industrial Conference Board Index of the Cost of Living (July 1914=100) were reported during February, but present prices are generally lower than those of Feb ruary, 1923. Prices of canned fruits have changed little recently, prevailing quotations ranging from 10 to 17 per cent below those of a year ago. Dairy and poultry products de clined seasonally during the month, butter and raw milk remaining higher and eggs lower than at the close of February, 1923. A sharp advance in copper and lead prices, and a general strengthening of non-ferrous metals quotations were noteworthy features of the metal markets during February. Copper advanced from the recent low price of \2 y2 cents per pound (January 18th) to 13% cents per pound on March 7th, but at that price sold for 3 cents per pound, or 17.8 per cent, less than on March 2, 1923. Lead prices rose. 20.7 per M arch, 1924 39 FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT SAN FRANCISCO k s offi Milling Flour production in this district declined dur ing February, 1924, as it has during each Feb ruary of the past four years, but continued in excess of production a year ago. Diminished output was accompanied by a moderate in O c cent during the month, and at 10.75 cents per crease in stocks of wheat and a decline in stocks pound on March 7th were 20.6 per cent higher of flour held by the mills. Millers' stocks of than on March 2, 1923. Silver and zinc prices advanced slightly, but quotations on March 7, 1924, were 2.8 per cent and 15.2 per cent, re spectively, lower than one year ago. Crude petroleum prices, which advanced sharply to $1.40 per barrel for oil of 35 degrees gravity and above on February 5th, as noted in the Febru ary Review, have been unchanged since that date. The general trend of lumber prices was downward during February. Quotations for THOUSANDS OF BARRELS lumber now prevailing are from 8.0 to 15.0 per 9 0 0 4' V cent lower than during February, 1923. : \ 500 V - O U T P O T OF F L O U R IOO 1923 1924 Monthly Flour Output, and Stocks of Wheat and Flour at End of Month of 16 Reporting Milling Companies (B ) Com m odity P rices— Commodity Tw enty Basic Commodities (F . R. B. of N. Y .) 1 9 1 3 = 1 0 0 .. W holesale Prices (U . S. Bureau of Labor) 1 9 1 3 = 1 0 0 ........... Cost of Living (National Industrial Conference Board) July, 1914=100 ..................................................................................... Purchasing Power of Farm Products (U . S. Department of Agriculture) 1 9 1 3 = 1 0 0 ....................................................................... Cattle (Native Beef) . . .W e ek ly Average Price at C h ica g o .. Sheep ................................. W eek ly Average Price at C h ic a g o .. Lambs ............................... W eek ly Average Price at C h ic a g o .. H o g s ....................................W eek ly Average Price at C h ic a g o .. W h e a t .................... Chicago Contract Price for M ay W h e a t .. B a r l e y .................... Shipping Barley f. o. b. San F ran cisco.. . Rice ........................ California Fancy Japan at San Francisco. Cotton ...................Middling Uplands— W eekly range of spot quotations at N ew O rleans........... ............. W o o l ...................... Average of 98 quotations at B osto n ............ F l o u r ...................... First Grade Family Patent f. o. b. Cali fornia m i l l s .......................................... ............. S u g a r ...................... Beet Granulated f. o. b. San F ra n cisco .. . A p p l e s .................... Extra Fancy W inesaps f. o. b. Pacific Northwest ......................................................... Oranges ................Navels, Fancy— W holesale at San Fran cisco ..................................................................... Lem ons ................. Choice— W holesale at San F r a n c is c o .... Dried A p p le s .. . . Choice in 50-lb. boxes f. o. b. C aliforn ia.. Dried Apricots.. .Choice in 25-lb. boxes f. o. b. C aliforn ia.. Prunes .................. Size 40/50 in 25-lb. boxes f. o. b. C a lif... . Raisins .................. Loose Muscatel in 25-lb. boxes f. o. b. California ........................................................... Canned A p ricots. Choice 2 # s f. o. b. California........... ............. Canned Peaches.. Cling Choice, 2 # s f. o. b. California......... Canned P e a r s .. . . Bartlett, Standard 2 # s f. o. b. California. Raw M ilk ...............Pacific Coast— February average................. B u t t e r .................... 93 score at San Francisco................................ Eggs ...................... Extras— San Francisco...................................... Copper ..................Electrolytic; New Y ork S p o t........................ Lead ....................... N ew Y o rk S p o t.................................................... Silver ..................... New Y o rk F oreign .............................................. Z i n c .........................East St. Louis S p o t.............................................. Petroleum ........... California 35° and above................................... Douglas F ir ......... 2x4, 16 ft. N o. S1S1E f. o. b. Seattle............ Douglas F ir ......... 12x12 Tim bers f. o. b. Seattle.......................... Unit 100 lbs. 100 lbs. 100 lbs. 100 lbs. bu. cental cental lb. lb. bbl. lb. M ar. 7,1924 One Month Ago One Year Ago 151.3 152.0 152.6 151.0 159.6 157.0 163.9 164.6 157.5 74.0 73.0 69.0 $ 9.60 $ 9.25 $ 8.85 9.25 7.80 7.50 15.50 13.95 13.70 7.35 8.00 7.00 1.10*4-1.11$* 1 .1 1 # -1 .1 2 # 1.185/^-1.19# 1.60-1.65 1.65-1.70 1.65-1.75 5.05 5.15 4.40 28.88-29.63* 82.47* 33.13-33.63* 81.24* 29.75-30.13* 82.36* 8.90* 7.18 8.65* 7.79 9.10* box 1.30-1.45 1.25-1.40 1.40-1.50 box box lb. lb. lb. 2.50-4.50 1.50-2.50 .1334 .12-. 13 .1 0 # 3.00-4.75 1.50-2.50 .1 3 # -.1 4 .1 1 # -.1 2 . 1 0 # - .1 0 # 2.50-4.00 4.00-4.50 .0 8 # - . 0 8 ^ .22-.23 .1 1 # -.1 1 M .0854 2.60 2.25 2.40 2.89 .4 6 # .25 .1 3 « 10.75* .6 4 # 6.65* 1.40 19.50 22.00 .0 8 # 2.60 2.25 2.40 2.92 .52 .3 5 # .1 2 « 8.40* .63 7 /s 6.55-6.60* 1.01 20.50 25.00 .10 3.15 2.60 2.85 2.80 .45 .2 7 # .16% 8.50* .66 7.80-7.85* 1.45 22.50 24.00 lb. doz. doz. doz. 100 lbs. lb. doz. lb. lb. oz. lb. bbl. M ft. M ft. 40 March, 1924 M O N T H L Y REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS wheat and of flour were reported smaller by 0.4 per cent and 3.2 per cent, respectively, on March 1, 1924, than on March 1, 1923. Figures of output and stocks for 16 milling companies for which a continuous record is kept are given in the follow ing ta ble: Feb., 1924 Jan., 1924 Feb., 1923 578,314 679,463 556,594 O u t p u t .................... (bbls.) Stocks of F lo u r*.. (bbls.) 508,699 530,845 510,642 Stocks of W h e a t * ..(b u .) 3,520,908 3,159,731 3,635,889 *A s o f the first day o f the following month. N O T E : Output o f the 16 reporting mills during January, 1924, the ^latest month for which complete comparative data are available, represented approximately 64 per cent o f the total roduction o f all mills in the district producing 5,000 or more arrels o f flour annually (as reported to the Bureau o f the Census). Millers report that the domestic market for flour generally was less active during Febru ary, 1924, than during January, 1924, but that the volume of sales was greater than in Feb ruary, 1923. Foreign markets, which have been relatively inactive during recent months, con tinued sluggish. four lumber associations during February and January of the past two years are given in the follow ing table (000 omitted) : Feb., 1924 Jan., 1924 Feb., 1923 Jan., 1923 (board fe«t) (board feet) (board feet) (board feet) Production .......... ..586,050 Shipments ........... ..620,421 Orders ................... .573,624 528,175 576,534 629,300 442,466 577,945 564,721 443,534 582,747 678,163 Unfilled O rd e r s.. 559,399 583,691 673,696 607,714 A marked decline in demand for Pacific Coast lumber at Atlantic Coast markets, which had hitherto been abnormally active for the season of the year, was reported during February. The decline accompanied a general advance in prices of lumber, delivered there, which fol lowed recent increases in intercoastal water freight rates. Other domestic markets contin ued relatively inactive during the month. Little or no improvement in the foreign market was noted, the volume of new orders placed fo£ ex port being approximately half as large as in January, itself a month of small sales. Lumber Sharply increased production of lumber and a decline in orders received, which carried that item below production figures, characterized activity in the lumber industry of the district during February, and resulted in some curtailMILLIONS OF BOARD FEET Aside from an increase in lead production, preliminary returns indicate that output of the principal metal products of the district was little changed during February as compared with January, although final figures may show some declines in production of copper. Figures for national production of copper, silver, zinc, and quicksilver during January, 1924, the latest month for which statistics are available, are given in the follow ing table: Jan., 1924 Dec., 1923 Jan., 1923 Copper (lbs.) (mine production) . . . . 132,816,730 128,193,000 110,589,000 Silver (oz.) (com mercial b a r s ). . . 5,220,751 4,748,000 5,190,000 Zinc (tons) 49,709 46,485 46,317 (slab) ................... Quicksilver (flasks— 75 lbs., estimated) 800 800 500 Figures for lead are not available. Lumber Production, Orders Received, and Shipments in Twelfth Federal Reserve District as Reported by Four Lumber Associations, 1923-1924 ment of operations during the latter part of that month and the early weeks of March. Such curtailment took the form of eliminating extra shifts or m odifying plans for expansion, how ever, and production has continued at levels higher than a year ago. Shipments during Feb ruary, 1924, were approximately 7 per cent greater in volume than during February, 1923, and exceeded the amount of both production and new orders received. Figures showing the activity o f nearly 200 mills reporting through Demand for copper and lead has strength ened appreciably during the past month. A l though domestic copper markets have shown but little activity, more active foreign demand for the metal has been reported, and recent small price advances have been generally main tained. Copper sold for 14 cents per pound on March 20, 1924, compared with 12y2 cents per pound on January 18th, 13y2 cents per pound on February 20th, and 17 cents per pound on March 20, 1923. Rapidly increasing demand for lead and a comparatively stable volume of pro duction during February and the first tw o weeks of March have combined to carry lead March, 1924 FEDERAL RESERVE AG EN T A T SAN FRANCISCO 41 During January 42 petroleum refineries in prices to the highest levels recorded since 1920. Lead was quoted at 9 cents per pound on the California produced 109,307,994 gallons of gas New Y ork market on February 14th and 10 olene, 5.2 per cent more than reported produc cents per pound on February 29th, prices later tion of 41 refineries during December, 1923, and declining to 9 cents per pound, the present 17.9 per cent more than production of 33 re (M arch 20th) quotation. On March 20, 1923, fineries reporting during January, 1923. Indi lead sold for 8.75 cents per pound at New York. cated consumption of gasolene decreased dur Zinc markets were more active during Febru ing the first month of this year, and was less ary than during immediately preceding months, by 9,501,512 gallons than production, so that and the average price of that metal advanced slightly, although remaining lower than a year ago. Average prices paid for the principal non- M I L L I O N S 4-00 ferrous metals during February and January, 3 00 1924, and February, 1923, fo llo w : Feb., 1924 Copper (lb.) (cents) N ew York Electrolytic.. 12.71 Lead (lb.) New Y o r k .......................... 8.55 Silver (oz.) New Y o r k ........................... 64.36 Zinc (lb.) 6.76 St. L o u i s ............................. Quicksilver (dollars per flask) San Francisco____ 59.67 Feb., 1923 (cents) (cents) 12.40 15.36 7.97 8.05 63.45 64.31 60 6.43 7.15 4-0 59.66 68.49 CALIFORNIA PETROLEUM SITUATION Indicated Average Stored New Wells Average Daily ^ Stocks at Opened Daily Consumption End of Daily Production (Shipments) Month Production (barrels) (barrels) (barrels) No. (barrels) IOO r •*•••* ... 80 .................. S T O R E D S O C K S O F P iT R O L E U M ( B B L S .) PET RO L ÜUM (B B L S .) P R O D J C T IO N ,#•* — V 'P E T Production and consumption of petroleum in California are now more nearly balanced than was the case during the greater part of 1923, terminating, at least temporarily, the rapid rise in stored stocks which was a feature of the petroleum situation during that year. Produc tion during February, at 666,939 barrels per day, was 1.2 per cent less than during January, while consumption (indicated by shipments), at 625,364 barrels per day, was 4.2 per cent greater than during the previous month. Stored stocks increased but 0.2 per cent during Febru ary, and stood at 95,460,505 barrels on March 1st. Completion of 102 new wells with an initial daily production of 44,471 barrels of oil was re ported during February, 1924, compared with 120 new wells with an initial daily production of 56,239 barrels opened in January, and 43 new wells producing 77,221 barrels per day opened in February, 1923. W ells abandoned numbered 57 during February, 48 during January, and 14 during February, 1923. A statistical summary of the petroleum industry in California is pre sented in the follow ing table: 666,939 674,597 858,750 586,670 S T O R E D ST D C K S O F Ö A S O I E N E ^ (G A L L O N S ) 20 Petroleum Feb., 1924 Jan., 1924 Sept., 1923 Feb., 1923 200 Jan., 1924 625,364 599,446 779,657 508,926 94,460,505 94,254,833 85,496,609 64,812,395 102 120 93 43 44,471 56,239 139,960 77,221 R O LEU M SH IP M E N T S (B B L S .) IO 19 2 3 1924 Production, Shipments, and Stored Stocks of Petroleum, and Refinery Stored Stocks of Gasolene, 1923-1924 refinery stocks at 201,281,887 gallons on Janu ary 31st were 4.9 per cent greater than on D e cember 31, 1923, and more than twice as large as one year ago. Output and stocks of gasolene at California refineries for January, 1924, and 1923, and December, 1923, and 1922, are pre sented in the follow ing table : GASOLENE (California Refineries) Jan., 1924 Refinery O u tp u t.. Dec., 1923 (gallons) (gallons) 109,307,994 103,872,185 Jan., 1923 Dec.. 1922 (gallons) (gallons) 92,686,090 69,856,800 Stored S t o c k s * ... 201,281,887 191,780,375 116,433,560 99,366,400 * A s o f the last day o f the month. Electric Energy Sales of electric energy to industrial con sumers during January, 1924, were 25.8 per cent greater in volume than during January, 1923, according to reports received from 20 of the largest power companies of the district. Data are not available for a sufficient period of time to enable accurate correction for normal annual growth in these figures, but on the basis of the past two years’ experience it appears probable that a substantial element of industrial expan- 42 M arch, 1924 M O N T H L Y R EVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS sion is represented in an increase of 25.8 per cent over a twelve month period. All of the industries for which separate fig ures are available showed increases during Jan uary, 1924, compared with January, 1923. A particularly large increase in purchases of agri cultural consumers was noted in California where drought conditions have stimulated the use of power for pumping purposes. District sales to farmers were but 3.8 per cent of all MILLIONS OF KILOWATT HOURS 5001---------- 450 400 / / — i ---- 1924 350 _*___ „W b 2 3 Employment Although the general level of business and industrial activity in the Twelfth Federal R e serve District, as indicated by figures of bank debits in 20 principal cities, is somewhat above that of a year ago, certain special factors have operated to bring about a slight increase in unemployment as compared with 1923. Re stricted agricultural operations in California, some curtailment of mineral production in the Intermountain States, and less hasty expan sion of the lumber industry of the Pacific Northwest, all have contributed to a surplus of workers during February, 1924, slightly greater than was reported during February, 1923. Seasonal increases in employment during Feb ruary as compared with January have been reported. Recent trends of employment in manufactur ing industries are indicated in the follow ing table showing the total number of workers on the payrolls of 40 large manufacturing firms: Number of Firms Los A n g e l e s .... Portland .............. San F ran cisco... 300 250 n Total Industrial Sales (K. W. H .) of 20 Power Companies in Twelfth Federal Reserve District, 1923-1924 sales, however, so that the chief part of the increase in total sales was the result of in creased buying by mining, manufacturing, and general industrial interests. Percentage com parisons of sales by certain industries and by sections of the district are presented in the fol low ing ta b le: Percentage Increase or Decrease (—) January, 1924, compared with January, 1923 Total Manu Industrial Agricul facturing Mining Sales ture C a lifo rn ia ....................... , 98.3 Pacific N orth w est___ — 50.3 Intermountain States. .— 48.7 81.8 Tw elfth D istrict.......... 22.5 1.6 — 4.7 11.8 30.6 41.1 6.7 33.8 27.3 19.3 29.6 25.8 Figures showing the number of industrial consumers and the volume of industrial sales of reporting companies during January, 1924, and 1923, fo llo w : Number ot Industrial Consumers Jan., Jan., 1924 C a li f o r n ia .................... 81,961 1923 57,262 Pacific Northwest 11,115 .. 12,705 Industrial Sales K. W. H. Jan., Jan., 1923 1924 218,560,667 78,128,997 171,639,680 56,733,947 65,468,861 43,775,681 353,423,611 Number of Men on Payroll* Feb.29, Jan. 31, Feb. 28, 1924 1924 1923 16 8 10 6 35,067 8,329 8,171 3,100 34,362 t 8,656 3,185 31,890 8,302 7,254 2,349 40 54,667 46,203 49,795 *These figures do not represent the total number o f men engaged in manufacturing activities in these cities, but only the payroll figures o f a selected number o f firms usually employing 501 men or more. f N o report available. Automobile Registrations The annual registration of all automobiles in the district has been in progress for the past two months, but final figures of total registra tions of old cars and of monthly registrations of new cars during January and February are not yet available. Preliminary returns, however, indicate a substantial increase in the number both of new and old cars registered during the current year as compared with the same period a year ago. National production of automobiles during February, 1924, was 30.5 per cent greater than during February, 1923, according to pre liminary figures compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Production during the year 1923 was at record levels for the in dustry, total output exceeding that of the pre vious record year, 1922, by approximately 50 per cent. An increase of 15.8 per cent in pro duction during February, 1924, as compared with January, 1924, was largely seasonal. F ig ures fo llo w : Feb., 1924 Jan., 1924 Feb., 1923 280,884,222 Passenger C ars................... 334,844 Trucks .................................... 29,265 286,896 27,430 259,383 21,411 *Due to a change in the statistical method of one reporting com pany these figures are not comparable. T o ta l ..................................... 364,109 314,326 280,794 Intermountain States Tw elfth District . . . . 5,142* 99,808 9,877* 78,254 March, 1924 43 FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT SAN FRANCISCO Retail Trade Wholesale Trade Sales of 35 department stores in six cities of the district were 17.7 per cent greater during February, 1924, than during February, 1923, all cities reporting increases. Stocks of these same stores, largely as a result of an increase of 25.2 per cent in value of stocks reported by stores in Los Angeles, were 9.2 per cent greater on March 1, 1924, than on March 1, 1923. The larger stocks held this year were being sold at a more rapid rate than stocks held in 1923, how ever, the annual rate of turnover for the first two months of 1924 being 2.66 compared with an annual rate of turnover of 2.58 for the same period a year ago. Although dullness in a few lines still con fuses the wholesale trade situation, there was a distinct improvement in trade conditions dur ing February. Eight of the eleven lines of busi ness which report to this bank showed in creases in the value of their sales as compared with February, 1923, and of the three lines showing decreases only one, automobile tires, reported a decline in value of sales materially greater than the decline in general wholesale prices (3.8 per cent) over the year period. M IL L IO N S OF D O LLA R S FEBRUARY PRICES I 9 2 3 = I00%=FEBRUARY I9235A L E 5 U.S.BUREAU OF LABOR INDEX NO. WHOLESALE PRICES IFEBRÙARY 119241 PRICES I AGRICULTURAL IMPLEMENTS 32 AUTOMOBILE SUPPLIES 30 AUTOMOBILE TIRES 28 DRUGS 26 24 2 2 2 0 18 16 ■7 \ 19 24 14 / V . ./ 7 n T 0 \ 19 2 3 \ N e t Sales of 31 D epartm ent Stores in T w e lfth F ederal R eserv e D istrict ( i n M illion s o f D o lla rs) Seasonal declines in trade at retail during February as compared with January were noted in all reporting cities except Spokane. A detailed statement of the percentage changes in the value of sales and stocks of re porting department stores in this district fol Percentage increase or decrease ( —•) in value o f sales F e b ., 1924, com pared with F e b ., Jan., N o. of 1923 1924 Stores Los Angeles. .. 6 4 Oakland ....... Salt Lake City. .. 4 San Francisco.. ..10 5 Seattle......... 5 Spokane ....... District* .... . .35 24.2 10.2 11.8 13.8 14.4 12.8 - P ercentage increase or decrease (— ) in value o f sto ck s F e b ., 1924, com pared w ith F e b ., Jan., 1923 1924 -13.9 - 8.4 - 7.9 - 5.0 - 2.2 9.8 25.2 7.2 11.9 4.7 1.1 0.2 4.4 10.9 8.1 2.5 17.5 8.1 17.7 - - 8.8 9.2 6.5 * F ig u re s f o r on e store in c lu d e d in d istrict figu res bu t n o t in clu d e d in figu res f o r cities sh o w n a bove. 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 D olla r V a lu e o f Sales o f Represen tative W h olesa le F irm s and G eneral W h o le sa le P rices in F eb ru ary, 1924, com pared w ith Febru ary, 1923 12 lows . 2 0 Percentage increases or decreases (— ) in the value of February sales of all reporting firms in each line of business, compared with the value of sales during February, 1923, and Jan uary, 1924, are presented in the following table : N u m ber o f Firm s Agricultural Implements. ...22 15 Automobile Supplies..... 19 Automobile Tires......... 9 15 Dry Goods.................. 4 Electrical Supplies........ Furniture ................... 16 28 Groceries ................... 21 Hardware .................. 13 Stationery.................. 27 F e b ., 1924,com pared w ith Jan., 1924 F e b ., 1923 47.1 — 1.5 — 15.5 — 5.6 5.0 — 1.8 10.3 — 9.9 — 0.6 23.6 — 10.6 25.0 4.3 — 11.2 13.8 6.5 21.4 12.3 — 3.5 6.7 — 4.3 2.2 Collections during the past have been reported as follows : three months N u m ber o f F irm s R eporting C o lle ction s as E x cellen t G ood Fair P oor December, 1923......... 8 January, 1924......... 4 February, 1924......... 1 39 33 35 65 85 84 7 12 16 44 March, 1924 M ON TH LY REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS B u ild in g Activity Continuance of building activity at high levels is indicated by the figures of building permits issued in this district during the first months of the year. Building authorized in 20 principal cities during February, 1924, had a value 18.5 per cent greater than that authorized during February, 1923, and the number of per mits included was 26.3 per cent greater than during February a year ago. The figures for the past month were larger than in any previous February of which the bank has record. Percentage In crease in the N u m ber and V a lu e o f B uilding Perm its Issu ed in 20 C ities F e b ., 1924, com pared with F e b ., 1923 Jan., 1924 Number of Permits Issued........ Value of Permits Issued........... 26.3 18.5 5.1 2.8 The United States Department of Labor in dex number of building materials prices stood at 182 in February (1913 prices=100). This is 0.6 per cent higher than a month ago, 5.2 per cent lower than a year ago, and 10.8 per cent below the peak of April, 1923. The Aberthaw index number of the total cost of constructing a reinforced concrete factory building stood at 202 on March 1, 1924 (100 in 1915), compared with 200 on January 1, 1924, and 198 on Febru ary 1, 1923. The latest figure is 2.4 per cent below the recent peak (207) reached June 1, 1923. Business Failures Although the number and liabilities of busi ness failures in the district were seasonally less during February than during January, 1924, the liquidation of firms which had been in dif ficulties during 1921 and 1922 and which were unable to materially improve their position dur ing 1923, continued. The number of failures was 17.3 per cent greater than in February, 1923, and, if the failure of one large concern in LIABILITIES (0 0 0 -O M IT T E D ) NO.OF FAILURES B u siness F ailures, T w elfth F ederal R e se rv e D istrict, 1923-1924 Building Perm its Issu ed in 20 Principal C itie s, T w elfth Federal R e se rv e D istrict, 1923-1924 (C) Building Permits— F eb ru ary, 1924 N o. V a lu e Febru ary, 1923 N o. V a lu e 210 $ 668,880 Berkeley..... 54 30,798 B o is e ......... 135 144,040 Fresno ....... 2,156,132 Long Beach.. 525 Los Angeles.. 5,344 16,083,412 2,250,570 O aklan d ...... 1,025 O g d e n ....... 23 74,700 314 654,294 Pasadena .... P h oe n ix ...... 99 308,250 2,607,965 P o rtla n d ..... 1,312 13,100 10 R e n o .......... 694,538 Sacramento .. 267 94 251,980 Salt Lake City San Diego---443 763,430 San Francisco 794 3,912,166 101 San Jose...... 219,380 2,217,330 Seattie ....... 866 Spokane ..... 183 273,108 111 Stockton ..... 447,425 Tacoma ...... 404,615 307 156 $ 503,642 68 28,671 197 428,210 408 3,045,285 4,104 12,080,310 932 2,041,521 42,080 15 279 759,817 43 63,225 817 1,674,150 147,760 9 251 595,178 30 204,980 403 673,350 782 3,278,676 100 204,980 661 2,091,380 64 139,165 106 371,560 241 456,495 District ....12,217 $34,176,113 9,666 $28,830,435 Utah be eliminated from the 1923 figures, liabil ities increased by 9 per cent as compared with a year ago. Percentage In crease o r D e cre a se ( — ) in the N u m b e r and Liabilities o f B u siness Failures in the T w e lfth F ed era l R e se rv e D istrict F e b ., 1924, com pared w ith F e b ., 1923 Jan., 1924 Number of Business Failures. 17.3 Liability of Business Failures. — 47.7 — 28.7 — 25.9 R. G. Dun & Company’s preliminary figures of the number and liabilities of business fail ures in the states of the district during Febru ary, 1924, and January, 1924, follow: F eb ru ary, 1924 N o. Liabilities Arizona .......... California ....... Idaho ............. N e v a d a ........... O re g o n ........... Utah .............. Washington ..... 0 $ 91 12 2 26 12 40 N o. January, 1924 L ia bilities 0 776,406 224,245 9,548 245,622 314,935 425,154 7 $ 118,728 136 1,034,884 8 45,975 0 0 40 400,168 7 26,667 59 1,068,362 D istric t........ 183 $1,995,910 257 $2,694,784 March, 1924 FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT SAN FRANCISCO Bank Debits Checks drawn against accounts of individ uals at banks (bank debits) during February reflect an increasing volume of business at levels appreciably higher than a year ago. The February total was but 5 per cent less than that reported for January, whereas a year ago the decline from January to February amounted to 16 per cent. Compared with February, 1923, this year’s figure shows an increase of 20.4 per cent, the largest monthly increase, when com- pared with a year ago, reported since June, 1923. If bank debits of reporting centers had increased by estimated normal amounts as com pared with February a year ago the gain would have been but 15.0 per cent. The following table shows total debits by months for the past six months, as computed by this bank from weekly figures reported by 20 clearing house associations (000 omitted): 1924 M I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S 45 Percentage Increase o r D e cre a se (— ) as com pared w ith One One Y ear A g o M o n th A g o A m ou n t February.............. $2,501,242 January ................ 2,646,762 3 0 0 0 1---------------------- 20.4 6.9 — 5.5 1.2 7.4 18.9 18.4 10.4 1.2 — 3.6 12.3 3.9 1923 December ............ November ............ October ............... September ............ 2800 1924 2,614,713 2,582,887 2,679,253 2,385,895 2600 A 1923' 2400 \ 2200 Changes in the general price level during this period have been negligible so that no allow ance need be made for this factor in interpret ing the dollar figures presented. Detailed data showing debits by individual cities for the four weeks ended February 27, 1924, and for the corresponding period a year ago are presented in table "D .” -A I -4-4\ I -v 2000 Savings Accounts D ebits to Individual A cco u n ts in 20 Principal C ities, T w elfth Federal R eserve D istrict, 1923-1924 (D) Bank Debits*— F ou r w eeks ending F e b . 27, 1924 ,$ 17,871 Berkeley.................... 9,695 Boise ......................... 30,464 Fresno ...................... Long Beach................. 54,071 , 740,050 Los Angeles................ 117,189 Oakland .................... O g d e n ....................... 20,726 Pasadena ................... 33,766 19,734 P h oen ix ..................... 146,068 P ortla n d .................... 7,756 Reno ......................... 49,622 Sacramento ................ 51,181 Salt Lake City............. San Diego................... 47,616 San Francisco.............. 760,540 18,722 San Jose..................... 148,306 Seattle ...................... Spokane .................... 42,890 Stockton .................... 20,625 33,236 Tacoma ..................... 8,694 Yakima ..................... , , . Total ...................... *000 om itted. ,$2,378,822 F ou r w eeks ending F e b . 28, 1923 $ 14,882 10,444 41,982 49,853 586,622 110,542 26,272 27,533 16,442 124,494 7,869 41,237 54,478 42,227 680,420 19,654 140,288 40,215 18,856 31,456 8,385 $2,094,151 Savings deposits in 73 banks in seven prin cipal cities of the district increased 2.7 per cent during February, 1924, and for the first time passed the billion dollar level. This advance to record figures was principally due to large increases in the volume of savings accounts at Los Angeles and San Francisco, the former city showing a gain of 4.2 per cent in one month. During the year period February, 1923, to February, 1924, reported savings deposits in creased 13.1 per cent. Detailed changes in the amount of savings deposits since one month ago and one year ago as reported by 73 banks in seven cities are presented in the following table: _P er C_e n t Increase _ N u m ber of * F e b ., B anks 1924 L o s A n g e le s .. 13 $343,125 * Jan., 1924 $329,048 o r D e cre a se ( — ) F e b ., 1924, com pared with * F e b ., F e b ., Jan.. 1923 1923 1924 $29 3,09 8 17.0 4.2 O a k la n d f . . . . 7 92,854 91,456 85,206 8.9 P o r t la n d 9 50,079 50,086 44,165 13.3 8 27,385 27,276 25,436 7.6 411 ,380 64,705 400,161 64,813 370,581 55,883 11.0 15.7 .... S alt L a k e C ity S an F r a n cis c o 1 4 $ S e a ttle ........... 16 S p o k a n e ......... T ota l .......... 6 16,952 17,098 15,555 8.9 73 $1,006,480 $97 9,93 8 $889,924 13.1 1.5 — .01 .4 — 2.8 .1 — .8 2J~ *000 om itted. f In c lu d e s o n e b a n k in B e r k e le y w h ich w as fo r m e r ly a b ra n ch o f an O a k la n d ban k. $ T h e co n s o lid a tio n o f r e p o r tin g ban ks has re d u ce d th eir n u m b er, b u t has n o t a ffe c te d th e v a lu e o f r e p o r te d fig u res f o r c o m p a ra tiv e pu rp oses. 46 M ON TH LY REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS The accompaning chart compares the actual increase in savings deposits since January 31, 1919, with that which would have occurred if no additions had been made to funds on deposit at that time, except the crediting of interest at 4 per cent, compounded semi-annually. MILLIONS OF DOLLARS M a rch , 1924 first shown separately in January, 1921. The total volume of bank credit extended, including investments as well as loans, during recent weeks (approximately $1,360,000,000) was ex ceeded for a considerable period in May and June of 1923, since when investments of the banks have declined steadily. Total deposits of reporting banks fell from $1,325,000,000 on Feb ruary 6th to $1,316,000,000 on March 5th, but inasmuch as similar declines have occurred in each of the past four years this may be char acterized as a seasonal movement. Changes in principal items of the statement of the Federal Reserve Bank have been of minor importance during recent weeks. Total discounts have fluctuated between 40 and 50 millions of dollars, changes in city bank borM iL L I O N S OF D O L L A R S 1400 TOTAL DEPOSITS 1200 Savings D e p o sits o f 73 B anks in Seven C itie s o f T w e lfth D istrict (Base year 1919.) L O A N S A N D DISC The distance between the two lines at any given point represents what might be called “new savings” accumulated from January 31, 1919, to the date designated by that point. The increase in such “new savings” has been fairly steady during the past five years, excepting the year 1921. During that year the distance be tween the two lines (amount of “new savings”) actually decreased, a reflection, no doubt, of the severe business depression which characterized the period. Banking and Credit Situation Substantial seasonal increases in demand for credit occurred during the four weeks ending March 5th, and were largely met by the banks of the district without recourse to the redis counting facilities of the Federal Reserve Bank. Total loans and discounts of 68 reporting mem ber banks in nine principal cities rose from $1,008,000,000 on February 6th to $1,027,000,000 on February 20th and then declined to $1,023,000,000 on March 5th, the net gain for the month being $15,000,000 or 1.4 per cent. Ex actly the same dollar increase in this item, and a percentage increase but slightly larger, was reported during February a year ago. The fig ure for total discounts ($1,027,000,000) reported on February 20, 1924, was the highest recorded since this item of member bank statements was OUNTS IO O O 800 400 IN V E S T M E N T S 300 IO O B IL L S P¿ <VABLE A 19 23 1924» T otal D e p o sits, L oans and D isco u n ts, Investm ents, and B ills Payable and R ed iscou n ts o f R ep orting M e m b e r B anks rowings being almost wholly responsible for what little movement there has been. At $42,893,000 on March 12th discounts were $2,000,000 larger than one month ago and approxi mately equal to the total reported a year ago. Federal Reserve note circulation continued around $206,000,000, a figure approximately $4,000,000 greater than circulation a year ago. Interest rates continued easy during Febru ary and early March. Weekly average interest rates on various classes of paper in the New York market are given in the following table (figures are for week ending on date shown) : M ar. 17, 1924 F e b . 9, 1924 A u tu m n P eak M a r. 13* 1923 1923 Time Money......... 4y2-4^% 41 /2-4y4c/o Sy2% 5%% Commercial Paper... 4^4 Wa 5% 5 Bankers' Acceptances 4% 4 4*4 4 M a rch , 1924 Reports received by this bank from 35 of the principal accepting banks of this district show the following percentage changes in the amount of bills purchased and accepted during February, 1924, compared with January, 1924, and February, 1923 : February, 1924, com pared with Amount of bills accepted ....... Amount of bills bought ......... Amount of bills held at close of month ........................... 47 FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT SAN FRANCISCO Jan., 1924 F e b .. 1923 — 14.8 + 3 .8 +19.5 — 9.5 +65.3 — 49.6 On March 10, 1924, the Treasury Department announced an offering of United States Cer tificates of Indebtedness designated as Series T.M.-1925, dated March 15, 1924, maturing March 15, 1925, and bearing interest at the rate of 4 per cent per annum payable semi-annually. The total amount of subscriptions received was $662,760,500, and the total of subscriptions allotted was $400,299,000. In the Twelfth Fed eral Reserve District total subscriptions re ceived amounted to $54,015,000, and the total allotment of subscriptions was $27,511,000. M I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S T otal R eserv es, Federal R eserve N o te C ircu lation , B ills D iscou n ted, and Investm ents, F ed eral R eserve B ank o f San F ra n cisco PRINCIPAL RESOURCE AND LIABILITY ITEMS OF REPORTING MEMBER BANKS IN RESERVE CITIES IN TWELFTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT M a rch 5, 1924 F ebru ary 6, 1924 M a rch 7, 1923 Number of Reporting Banks.............................................. 68* 68* 66* Loans and Discounts (including rediscounts)........................$1,022,874,000$1,008,173,000 $ 934,714,000 Investments .................................................................. 334,882,000 347,328,000 354,213,000 Cash in Vault and with Federal Reserve Bank....................... 117,214,000 129,557,000 117,415,000 Total D e p osits............................................................... 1,316,230,0001,325,162,000 1,271,271,000 Bills Payable and Rediscounts with Federal Reserve Bank....... 34,215,000 29,217,000 27,849,000 * D u e to ch an g es in the c o m p o s itio n o f the list o f r e p o r tin g ban ks, c u r r e n t figu res are n o t e x a c tly co m p a ra b le w ith those o f a y e a r ago. COMPARATIVE STATEMENT OF CONDITION OF FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO AT CLOSE OF BUSINESS MARCH 12, 1924 RESO U RCES M a rch 12, 1924 Febru ary 13, 1924 M a rch 14, 1923 Total Reserves ...............................................................$291,006,000 Bills Discounted ............................................................. 42,893,000 Bills Bought in Open Market............................................. 21,021,000 United States Government Securities................................... 22,304,000 $303,477,000 40,711,000 23,957,000 13,877,000 $252,534,000 42,926,000 31,663,000 34,742,000 86,218,000 56,900,000 78,545,000 49,769,000 109,331,000 58,719,000 Total Resources...........................................................$434,124,000 $431,791,000 $420,584,000 $205,993,000 161,046,000 23,191,000 41,561,000 $202,383,000 153,817,000 23,030,000 41,354,000 $431,791,000 $420,584,000 39,290,000 39,941,000 42,577,000 40,176,000 Total Earning Assets........................................................ A ll Other Resources*........................................................ L IA B IL IT IE S Federal Reserve Notes in Actual Circulation..........................$206,479,000 Total Deposits ............................................................... 158,461,000 Capital and Surplus......................................................... 23,201,000 All Other Liabilities!........................................................ 45,983,000 Total Liabilities...........................................................$434,124,000 ♦Includes “Uncollected Items”........................................... flncludes “Deferred Availability Items”............................... 45,691,000 44,396,000 TREND OF CONSTRUCTION COSTS, PRICES OF BUILDING MATERIALS, BUILDING WAGE RATES AND COST OF LIVING, 1913-1923 Comparison of changes in prices of building materials, building construction costs, wage rates in the building trades, and the general cost of living is made in the accompanying table of index numbers. During the past 11 years the trend of wages in the building trades has been steadily upward. Building materials prices and building costs reached their peak in 1920 and are now well below the level of that year, although the present year to year trend is upward. The cost of living, as reflected by the index prepared by the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, reached its peak in June, 1920, declining thereafter until June, 1922, since when a slight upward tendency has been ap parent. Three facts illustrated by the figures are worthy of special comment: 1. The index of wages has ordinarily been lower during boom periods or periods of rapid expansion than the indexes for building mate rials prices and the cost of living, and higher during periods of recovery or slight recession, a fact also noted in other fields. In June, 1920, the index of the cost of living was 117 per cent higher than in 1913, and building materials prices had almost trebled as compared with the pre-war year. Wages of building trades workers, however, were but 97 per cent higher in May, 1920, than in May, 1913. The “En gineering News-Record” index of construction costs, which includes both building materials prices and wages, reached a peak (274) in June, 1920 (1913 average=100). The average of this index for 1920 was 251. 2. Since the various peak points of 1920 the indexes of the cost of living, cost of building construction, and building materials prices have shown a net decline, and the index of wages has advanced. The cost of living index stood at 217 in June, 1920, declined to a subsequent low of 166 in September, 1922, and then advanced to 173 in December, 1923. Building materials prices averaged 189.5 (average of monthly indexes) in 1923, as compared with an average of 264 for 1920. Although this index has shown a down ward tendency since April, 1923 (the peak of the period since 1920), the average for 1923 indicates a continuance of the upward trend apparent since the low point of 156 in Septem ber, 1921. The index of wages increased 5 per cent from May, 1920, to May, 1923, the year 1922 being the only year in either this short period, or in the past 10 years, during which this index has not advanced. 3. There is an upward trend apparent in the movement of all indexes at the present time. Index numbers of construction costs, build ing materials prices, union wage rates per hour in the building trades, and the cost of living follow: Year C on strue* tion C o sts* 191 3 100 1914 89 1915 93 191 6 147 191 7 181 191 8 189 1919 198 1920 251 1921 202 1922 174 1923 214 March ......... 205 April .......... 214 J u n e ............ 221 September __ 222 Decem ber---- 217 1924 January ....... 218 February..... 220 B uilding M aterials Prices* 100 92 94 120 157 172 201 264 165 168 189.5§ 198 204 194 182 178 W age R a te s f 100 102 103 106 113 126 145 197 200 187 207 C o s t of Living^ 100 103 105 118 142 174 199 200 174 170 173 168.8 170 172 173.2 181 182 *1913 a v e r a g e s 100. f M a y o f ea ch y e a r (M a y , 1 9 1 3 = 1 0 0 ) . ^ D e ce m b e r o f each y e a r (19 1 3 a v e r a g e = 1 0 0 ) § A r ith m e tic a v e ra g e o f th e m o n th ly in d e x e s . N O T E : I n d e x o f c o n s tr u c tio n c o sts c o n s tr u c te d b y “ E n g in e e rin g N e w s -R e c o r d .” O th er in d e x e s c o n s tr u c te d b y U . S. B u rea u o f L a b o r S tatistics.
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