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fll&tttklLi n^eoum TW ELFTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN March 1956 FRANCISCO Review of Business Conditions . 34 Net Profits of District Banks Drop in 1955 . . . . . 36 REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS economy of the Twelfth District contin ued to expand in the opening months of the year, at a rate somewhat greater than expected earlier. W hile part of this rise in general levels of business was due to the ending of protracted labor disputes, significant additional strength has become visible in several lines of industrial activity. As a result of these factors, usual sea sonal declines in some sectors have been more than offset by nonseasonal expansions in other segments of the D istrict economy. Continuation of active markets for many goods and services nationally reflects a variety of forces. Possibly the most pervasive influence on current levels of activity is the favorable expec tations apparently held by both businessmen and consumers. Favorable business expectations are evidenced by the sharp rise since the second quarter of 1955 in national business outlays for long-term fixed investment in plant and equip ment. The volume of these expenditures, more over, is expected to rise throughout the remain ing quarters of the year. F or the year as a whole, according to the latest survey conducted by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the D epartm ent of Commerce, plant and equipment expenditures will exceed 1955 by some 22 per cent. On the consumer side, a survey conducted for the Board of Governors of the Federal R e serve System indicates that expectations held by spending units in the nation are highly favorable with respect to personal income receipts, em ployment prospects, and the general economic situation. In the survey, consumers also indi cated a continued high level of intentions to pur chase houses and most types of durable goods. T h e District employment expands to another new high level The total number of persons at work in the District expanded contraseasonally in January. Aggregate civilian employment, seasonally ad justed, rose by 1.5 percent in the Pacific Coast states from December to January and reached a level almost 5 percent above January 1955. Total Pacific Coast unemployment in January was nearly 18 percent below the same month last year. District insured unemployment, adjusted Digitized for 34 FRASER for seasonality, declined from January to F ebru ary which suggests that employment expansion has continued. In the District nonagricultural sector gains have been comparably vigorous and quite gen eral. The most outstanding recent advances in seasonally adjusted employment have been in the construction and mining industries. In large part these particular gains are the direct result of the settlement of labor-management disputes. In mining, the ending of the strike in the gravel and rock industry in southern California and the settlement of a five-month strike at lead mines in northern Idaho provided the upward impetus to employment as operations were resumed. The southern California strike had halted work on a m ajor portion of construction in progress so that the resumption of output in gravel and stone also had an immediate upward impact on em ployment in the building industry in that area. W ith the exception of a very slight decline in the service and miscellaneous category, all other principal industrial groups showed an advance in jobs from December to January after seasonal adjustment. Unusual employment strength dur ing this period was visible in the aircraft and nonelectrical machinery industries. In aircraft, expansion in output of civilian airplanes, com bined with accelerated military requirements for models produced in this District, pushed em ployment to another new post-W orld W ar II high. District automobile assembly plants were affected by general cutbacks in new car output and contracted their employment rolls moder ately. However, the full impact on the industry is obscured by employment data alone as a large part of the output reduction was accomplished by a shortening of the workweek and the elim ination of overtime schedules in some cases. In other nonagricultural lines of activity the over-all rise in employment was moderate. In the case of Government employment, however, the month-to-month gain was fairly large, 1.4 percent after seasonal adjustment. Continued gains in state and local government payrolls, par ticularly at educational institutions, offset declin ing trends in jobs at Federal establishments. March 1956 MONTHLY REVIEW Construction shows signs of renewed vigor Activity in the construction industry of the District, after a period of substantial weakness in the last quarter of 1955, has generally moved ahead of year-ago levels in the first two months of this year. Preliminary estimates of building permit valuation for January and February in dicate that the gain for the two-month period over a year ago was more than 7 percent. The increase from last year is due entirely to a sharp rise in nonresidential building as residential con struction was moderately below the first two months of 1955. Recent data on particular types of nonresidential building are not available, but from press reports it is possible to say that commercial structures — especially in suburban shopping centers—and industrial projects are conspicuous in the realized gains. It should be mentioned that the effect of the strike in the Los Angeles area may also have played a part in this gain as backlogs created by the. shutdown are now causing a temporary bulge in total per mit valuations. In the residential field the sharp declines of a m ajor portion of the last half of 1955 appear to have halted, at least in the opening two months of the year. W hile permit valuation was still be low year-ago levels in both January and Febru ary, the percentage declines were much smaller than in late 1955 and in the latest month (F eb ruary) the loss was very slight. Again, this marked lessening in the weakness in housebuild ing is to some extent the result of the strike ef fects in Los Angeles, but other factors are also of importance. Lengthening to 30 years of m axi mum maturities allowable under F H A and VA programs has had some effect on housing m ar kets. Supplies of mortgage funds—a shortage of which was a large element in the decline in activity last year—were somewhat easier in Jan uary and February than in previous months. Industrial expansion high in District Expansion in m ajor District industries is ap parently proceeding at a fast pace, in line with record expenditures nationally. Although it is not possible to detail the expansion in dollar terms owing to the absence of comprehensive data, public announcements of expansion plans and awards of construction contracts provide a general impression of over-all developments. A sizable number of such announcements or awards have occurred in the past several months. Two developments in the field of fuel and power are of special significance to the Pacific Northwest area of the District economy. F ore most of the two is the scheduled completion of the natural gas pipeline from the Southwest for which contracts were awarded in mid-February. (T he first large contract for utilization of the natural gas supply from this pipeline was just recently signed by a m ajor aluminum producer. The aluminum industry has been plagued with power shortages in the recent past. ) The second m ajor development is the construction of large hydroelectric power facilities on the Snake River in Idaho, a project costing upwards of $87 mil lion, that will further augment power supplies in the Northwest area. In the manufacturing industries, numerous expansions are underway. These include (with approximate total cost) : aircraft facilities in W ashington state ($30 million) ; an automobile assembly plant in California ($40 million) ; basic steel capacity in U tah ($17 million) ; paper pro duction in California ($12 million) ; and elec tronics manufacture in Arizona ($3 million). Expansion in mining, which has undergone a sizable growth in the past two years in the nonferrous field, is highlighted by new uranium processing facilities in southern U tah to cost about $8 million. District sales continue near earlier highs Sales at District department stores have con tinued strong in the opening months of the year. The cumulative value of sales through the end of February, based on preliminary data, was some 2 percent ahead of the comparable period a year ago. On a seasonally adjusted basis sales moved up in January, receded moderately in February, but in both months were ahead of the December level. The situation in new automobile sales, how ever, is somewhat different. Based upon new car registrations in California, total passenger car sales in the first two months of the year were 35 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN F R A N C IS C O slightly lower than in the same period a year earlier, with all of the decline occurring in late February. (I t should be recalled that early 1955 was an extremely active period in new car m ar kets. ) In terms of dollar volume of car sales the decline from last year may be more pronounced. This follows from the widespread and substan tial discounts offered to buyers — a condition which did not appear last year until the “clean up” preceding the introduction of the new 1956 models. However, industry sources appear con fident of an active sales level in March. Total demand for bank credit continues strong The demand for bank credit continued unusu ally strong in the first ten weeks of the year. In fact, the expansion in outstanding loans at weekly reporting member banks was greater than during this period a year ago. The rise in the first ten weeks of this year in total loans was $119 million. There was, however, a substantial difference in the strength of particular demands. Commercial, industrial, and agricultural borrow ers actually reduced their outstanding indebted ness by $11 million as compared with an increase in loans of $63 million during this period last year. Much of the decline in these loans was ac counted for by the substantial repayment of bank debt by sales finance companies. Smaller credit demands were also evident in the case of whole sale and retail merchants. Heavier demands for credit were visible for other types of business borrowers. Real estate credit demands at weekly report ing member banks were nearly twice as strong as in early 1955. The large rise in bank lending on real estate continues to reflect the near-record volume of new construction placed in process last year. Bank holdings of consumer credit in the Dis trict expanded in January, in contrast to a national decline. Judging from the change in “other loans” (about 75 to 80 percent of which is consumer loans) at weekly reporting banks, this expansion continued in February and early March. N et Profits of District Banks Drop in 1955 1955, Twelfth District member banks re ported net profits after taxes of $148.5 mil lion, a decrease of 5 percent from the record high level of 1954. This reduction was attribu table to a return to the characteristic postwar experience, which was interrupted in 1954, of losses, charge-offs, and transfers to valuation reserves on loans and securities exceeding re coveries, profits, and transfers from reserves. Each of the other two m ajor factors affecting profits, net current earnings1 and provision for taxes on income, were more favorable for mem ber banks in 1955 than in 1954. Net current earn ings rose $33 million above 1954 to reach a new record level. Provision for taxes on net income fell below the levels of the previous two years. I n 1N et current earnings are the excess of total earnings over total ex penditures, excluding such items as losses and recoveries on loans, profits or losses on the sales of securities, and changes in valuation reserves. Digitized for36 FRASER Earnings reach record levels as earning assets rise Twelfth District member banks continued to increase their holdings of earning assets through out 1955. However, because of the restrictive monetary policy followed by the Federal Reserve System during the year, the increase in these holdings was not so sharp as might otherwise have been expected in a boom year such as 1955. Because of this situation, banks found it profit able to redistribute their holdings of earning assets. They steadily reduced their United States Government portfolios in order to divert the funds to loans, which carry higher rates of in terest than securities. Member banks increased their holdings of loans and discounts by $1,707 million during the year. Of this increase, $1,161 million occurred between June and the end of December, as the seasonal increase in business demands for funds MONTHLY REVIEW March 1956 characteristic of the second half of the year was reinforced by a continued high level of demand for consumer and real estate loans. Commercial and industrial loans increased $777 million during the entire year, rising stead ily after a slight decline in the first three months. According to the reports of a selected group of larger member banks, substantial increases in borrowing for commercial and industrial pur poses were made by metal and metal products m anufacturers, public utilities and transporta tion lines, petroleum, coal, and chemicals manu facturers, food processors, retailers and whole salers, and sales finance companies. Real estate loans rose substantially also. More than half of the total increase of $528 million oc curred in the first six months of the year. Loans to individuals, primarily consumer loans, made up most of the remainder of the increase in total loans. Led by a growth of $301 million in retail automobile paper, consumer loans rose $381 mil lion in 1955. T E a r n in g s an d a ble E x p en ses o f T w e lfth 1954r 1955p P e rce n t ch a n g e 1954-55 494.7 546.8 + 11 144.1 38.5 160.0 42.5 + 11 + 10 61.3 22.2 39.7 66.2 25.8 41.8 + 8 + 16 + 5 T o tal earnings .............. 772.5 800.5 883.2 + 10 Salaries and w a g e s ........... 227.1 In te re s t on tim e deposits. 121.8 O th e r e x p e n s e s .................. 128.6 239.2 133.5 139.1 257.9 148.1 155.5 + 8 + 11 + 12 T o tal expenses .............. 477.5 511.8 561.5 + 10 N e t c u rre n t e a r n in g s .... 295.0 N et recoveries and profits (— losses)1 On securities .................. —•22.4 O n loans ......................... — 17.9 O th e r ................................ — 4.1 288.7 321.7 + 11 + 28.2 — 14.7 — 7.0 — 25.9 — 25.5 — 3.4 T o tal n e t recoveries and profits ................................ — 44.5 + 6.5 — 54.8 N e t profits before income ta x e s .................................. 250.5 T axes on n e t in c o m e .... 122.1 295.2 139.5 266.9 118.4 — 10 — 15 N e t profits afte r t a x e s . .. 128.4 C ash dividends d e clared . . 70.5 U ndistrib u ted profits . . . . 57.9 155.7 74.3 81.4 148.5 85.0 63.5 — 5 + 14 — 22 r revised. preliminary. 1 Including transfers to (— ) and from (-)-) valuation reserves. p 1 E A R N I N G S , E XP ENSES, AND PROFITS TWELFTH D I S T R I C T |q q q M ILLIO N S MEMBER BANKS OF D O LLA R S 800 600 400 2 00 0 D is tr ic t 1953-55 (millions of dollars) 1953 h a r t *This area represents net recoveries on loans and securities. 1 Including transfers to valuation reserves. 1 M em ber B a n k s, E arnings on l o a n s .............. 499.S In te re s t and dividends on G overnm ent s e c u ritie s .. 130.7 37.5 O ther securities ........... Service charges on deposit 49.2 accounts ........................... T ru st d ep artm en t earnings 20.4 O th e r earnings .................. 35.2 C The net result of the substantial growth in loans and a slight increase in the average rate of return on loans was to bring earnings on loans to a record high level of $546.8 million. This amount was 11 percent, or $52.1 million, above 1954. Earnings from this source constituted about 60 percent of total earnings. The next largest source of earnings was United States Government securities. In 1955 earnings from these investments increased 11 percent above 1954. W hile member banks re duced their holdings of these securities by $70.5 million during the year, they still had larger average holdings than in 1954. This increase in average holdings accounted for almost all of the rise in earnings from United States Government securities. Since banks were selling off securi ties, the effect on their earnings of rising inter est rates was minimized. However, there was a minor shift in the composition of their holdings toward higher interest-bearing issues. Also, al though banks were reducing their acquisitions of 90-day Treasury bills, the bills which they did purchase during the year yielded higher 37 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN F R A N C IS C O rates. These two factors were responsible for the slight rise in the rate of return on United States Government securities. Income from other securities rose 10 percent above 1954 as a result of a growth in holdings. These securities are primarily obligations of states and political subdivisions and constitute the third m ajor type of earning assets held by member banks. Member banks also received record high earn ings from services performed for patrons. The largest percentage increase for any type of earn ings was reported for trust department earn ings which rose 16 percent over the prior year. Service charges on demand deposits rose only 8 percent. This growth reflects an increase in demand deposits of $885 million, or 6 percent. Since the rate of growth in deposits was less than that reported for earnings, other factors such as a fairly rapid rise in the number of smaller accounts and an increase in handling charges as the number of checks written by de positors rose probably accounted for part of the increase in earnings from this source. Expenses also reach record levels C urrent operating expenses of Twelfth Dis trict member banks were $561.5 million in 1955, an increase of 10 percent over 1954. Among the T P e r c e n t C h a n g es in 2 a ble S e le c te d E x p e n se Ite m s o f T w e lft h E a r n in g s an d D is tr ic t M em b er B a n k s b y S iz e G ro u p , 1954-55 A ll banks 15 la rg e s t banks O th e r banks E arn in g s on l o a n s ................................ In te re s t and dividends on G overnm ent s e c u r itie s .................. O th e r securities .............................. Service charges on deposit accounts T ru s t d e p artm e n t e a r n in g s .............. T o tal earnings .................................... + 11 + 11 + 8 + + + + + + + + + + 12 11 8 22 11 + + + — + 7 8 8 7 7 Salaries and w ages ............................ In te re s t on tim e d e p o s it s ................ T o tal e x p e n s e s .................................... + 8 + 11 + 10 + 9 + 13 + 11 + + + 3 4 5 N e t c u rre n t e a r n in g s ......................... Profits before t a x e s ........................... T axes on n e t income ....................... N et profits after t a x e s ....................... Cash dividends d e c l a r e d .................. + — — — + + 11 — 7 — ’16 + 2 + 15 + — — — + 11 21 11 28 10 11 10 8 16 10 11 10 15 5 14 Figures presented in this table for the 1 5 largest and the other banks are not entirely comparable, particularly for components of total earnings and expenses, because during 1955 a number of smaller banks went out of existence, some of which were consolidated with banks in the 15-largest group. Adjustments for this factor would prob ably have little effect on the 15-largest figures but might mean sig nificant changes in the figures for the other banks. N o te: 38 various expense items, the highest rate of in crease was in the miscellaneous expenses. This group includes such costs as rent, lights, heat, postage, taxes other than on income, publicity, and fees and commissions for nonemployees. Reflecting growth in time deposits, interest ex penses on these accounts rose by 11 percent. Salaries and wages, which constitute about 46 percent of total expenses of member banks, in creased by only 8 percent in 1955, a smaller rate of increase than occurred in total expenses. The 55,266 employees received wages and salaries of $182.8 million during 1955 and the 8,976 of ficers of member banks received salaries of $75.1 million. Record high net losses, charge-offs, and transfers to valuation reserves reduced profits Net earnings were reduced by $54.8 million, the amount by which losses, charge-offs, and transfers to valuation reserves on loans and se curities exceeded profits, recoveries, and tran s fers from reserves. In the previous year these accounts had resulted in a net addition to earn ings of $6.5 million, owing mainly to net profits on the sale of securities. In 1954, as the prices of United States Gov ernment securities rose in the early part of the year, member banks sold large amounts, real izing net gains on these sales of $41.3 million for the year as a whole. After deducting net trans fers to valuation reserves of $13.1 million, the banks realized a net addition to profits of $28.2 million. In contrast, prices of Government se curities were falling throughout 1955, and thus the sales of securities by member banks to ob tain funds for expanding their loan portfolios re sulted in net losses of $28.5 million. However, this reduction was, in part, offset by transfers from valuation reserves of $2.6 million. The movement in losses, charge-offs, and changes in valuation reserves on loans followed much the same pattern as on securities. In 1954 there were net recoveries on loans of $2.9 mil lion compared with a loss of $3.4 million in 1955. In the earlier year net transfers to valua tion reserves of $17.6 million more than offset the recoveries. In 1955 net transfers to valua tion reserves were larger, amounting to $22.1 MONTHLY REVIEW March 1956 million, and resulted in a net deduction from profits of $25.5 million, an increase of $10.8 million over the prior year's deduction. The sub stantial increase in valuation reserves during the year indicates that member banks were still in a position to take advantage of the tax allow ance provisions for valuation reserves on loans which were further liberalized in 1954. As a result of these transfers to valuation re serves and actual losses and charge-offs on se curities and loans, taxes on income decreased relatively more than net income before taxes, de clining 15 percent from the previous year. While this sharp drop in taxes offset, in part, the decline in net profits before taxes, profits after taxes were still down 5 percent. Dividends and capital accounts M ember banks declared dividends greater than in any previous period. They retained only 43 percent of total profits compared with 52 per cent in 1954. During 1955 capital accounts rose $107 million, of which $64 million was accounted for by their retained earnings. The increase in capital accounts and the decline in profits com bined to bring the ratio of net profits after taxes to capital accounts to 10.2 percent this year com pared with 11.6 percent in 1954. United States experience similar to that for the Twelfth District Prelim inary figures for the United States in dicate that the trend in bank earnings and ex penses was much the same as for the Twelfth District. However, there were differences in the magnitudes of change. The decline in net profits T able 3 R a tio s to C a p ita l A c c o u n ts a n d R a te s o f R e tu r n on E a rn in g A s s e ts — T w e lf th D is tr ic t M e m b e r B a n k s , 1953-55 R atios to capital accounts N et c u rre n t earnings . , 1953 23.8 24.8 20.0 1954 21.7 22.3 19.1 1955 22.1 22.5 20.7 . 10.3 10.6 9.4 11.6 11.5 12.1 10.2 10.6 8.7 5.5 5.4 5.8 5.4 5.4 5.8 5.5 5.4 5.9 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.1 N e t profits after taxes O th er ........................... R ates of re tu rn on Loans All banks .................. 15 l a r g e s t.................... O t h e r ........................... G overnm ent securities All banks .................. 15 larg est .................. O t h e r ........................... after taxes was 10 percent in the nation as a whole compared with a 5 percent reduction in the District. The more rapid decline in profits, nationally, was wholly a reflection of a rela tively larger change in losses and charge-offs on securities and loans, since net current earnings increased at a faster rate than in the District and taxes declined at about the same rate. The more rapid rise in net current earnings for the nation was due to a smaller percentage increase in expenses, inasmuch as total earnings both in the District and the nation rose at the same rate. The movements in the various types of earnings, however, did vary. Earnings on loans rose 13 percent compared with 11 percent in the District, while earnings on United States Government securities rose only 5 percent in the nation as against 11 percent here. As in the past, the rate of return on loans was slightly less nationally than in the Twelfth District. A preliminary tabulation showing the condition of Twelfth District member banks as of December 31, 1955, is now available for distribu tion. It includes a detailed presentation of asset, liability, and capital accounts for member banks in each state as well as in the entire Dis trict, and a table showing the classification of loans and United States Government direct obligations for the District as a whole. Requests for copies should be directed to the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 400 Sansome Street, San Francisco 20, California. 39 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN F R A N C IS C O B U S IN E S S IN D E X E S — TW EL FT H D ISTRIC T! (1947-49 average=100) T o ta l nonagri T o ta l C a r Retail D ep’t c u ltu ra l m f ’g loadings store food E le c t r ic e m p lo y e m p lo y ( n u m sales prices 3, 4 C o ppe r3 power m ent m ent b e r)2 (v a lu e )2 W a te rb o rn e foreign tra de3»6 In d u s tria l pro d u c tio n (p h y s ic a l v o lu m e )2 Year and m o n th Lum ber P e tro le u m 3 C ru d e R e fine d C e m e n t Lead3 1929 1933 1939 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 95 40 71 97 104 100 113 113 116 118 112 122 87 52 67 100 101 99 98 106 107 109 106 106 78 50 63 98 100 103 103 112 116 122 119 122 54 27 56 96 104 100 112 128 124 130 133 145 165 72 93 94 105 101 109 89 86 74 70 73 105 17 80 106 101 93 113 115 112 111 101 117 29 26 40 90 101 108 119 136 144 161 172 192 1955 Jan u a ry Feb ru ary M arch April M ay June Ju ly A ugust Septem ber O ctober N ovem ber December 137 136 123 121 120 122 119 123 118 116 110 123 105 105 106 106 106 106 106 106 106 105 106 106 116 122 120 118 115 120 128 127 132 129 123 120 119 131 137 149 155 153 157 160 159 155 128 130 74: 79 83 77 78 75 71 67 70 72 67 63 119 130 131 127 131 130 40 91 128 131 128 119 1956 Jan u a ry 129 106 130 135 72 134 E x p o r ts Im p o r ts ’ *99 102 99 103 112 118 121 120 125 55 100 102 97 105 120 130 137 134 141 102 52 77 106 100 94 97 100 101 100 96 104 30 18 31 99 104 98 105 109 114 115 113 122 64 42 47 96 103 100 100 113 115 113 113 112 190 110 163 129 86 85 91 186 171 140 131 308 260 173 179 188 191 189 200 191 196 196 197 206 198 123 123 124 124 125 125 125 126 126 126 128 128 137 138 139 110 140 112 141 142 141 142 145 146r 106 99 103 105 110 111 99 106 107 104 98 98 125 118 118 120 118 118 123 122 126 126 125 123 112 112 112 113 113 112 113 111 112 112 112 112 163 184 163 149 162 152 171 189 174 152 143r 287 263 240 290 280 299 368 349 363 348 325 199 133 146 107 129p 112 124 72 95 81 98 121 137 157 200 B A N K IN G A N D C REDIT ST A T IST IC S— T W EL FT H D ISTRIC T (amounts in millions of dollars) M e m b e r bank reserves and related itein s C o n d itio n ite m s of all m e m b e r banks6 Year and m o n th 1929 1933 1939 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 Loans U .S . G o v ’t and d is c o u n ts s e c u ritie s D e m and T o ta l deposits tim e a d ju ste d 7 deposits 2,239 1,486 1,967 5,358 6,032 5,925 7,093 7,866 8,839 9,220 9,418 11,124 495 720 1,450 7,247 6,366 7,016 6,415 6,463 6,619 6,639 7,942 7,239 1,234 951 1,983 8,922 8,655 8,536 9,254 9,937 10,520 10,515 11,196 11,864 1,790 1,609 2,267 6,006 6,087 6,255 6,302 6,777 7,502 7,997 8,699 9,120 1955 F eb ru ary M arch A pril M ay June Ju ly A ugust Septem ber O ctober N ovem ber D ecem ber 9,612 9,696 9,657 9,810 10,102 10,191 10,392 10,559 10,665 10,931 11,115 7,693 7,390 7,756 7,690 7,446 7,557 7,407 7,375 7,487 7,238 7,298 10,945 10,733 11,060 10,951 11,023 11,212 11,163 11,312 11,465 11,665 11,876 8,765 8,837 8,833 8,885 9,026 8,995 9,021 9,054 9,067 9,005 9,084 1956 Jan u a ry F eb ru ary 11,193 11,323 7,143 6,819 11,794 11,233 9,070 9,095 Bank rates on s ho rt-term business loans8 Factors affecting reserves: Reserve bank c re d it9 _ — + + + + 3.20 3.35 3.66 3.95 4.14 <1.09 4.10 + 3.98 + + + + + — 3.99 + + 4.17 4.25 + + + 34 2 2 302 17 13 39 21 7 14 2 38 C o m m e r c ia l10 0 - 110 - 192 - 510 + 472 - 930 -1 ,1 4 1 -1 ,5 8 2 -1 ,9 1 2 -3 ,0 7 3 -2 ,4 4 8 -2 ,6 8 5 T re a s u r y 10 23 150 245 698 482 + 378 + 1 ,198 + 1 ,983 + 2 ,265 + 3 ,158 + 2 ,328 + 2 ,757 + + + 15 10 60 55 27 10 23 17 43 46 8 + - 26 401 306 51 449 193 253 148 245 81 434 + + + + + + + + + + 57 362 261 195 429 217 200 276 174 205 417 84 87 - 322 76 + + 136 95 — M o n e y in c irc u la tio n 9 _ — + — — — + + + + + + + + + + + + + — Bank debits Index 31 cities3*» Reserves11 (1947-49 = 100)2 6 18 31 206 209 65 14 189 132 39 30 100 175 185 584 2,202 2,420 1,924 2,026 2,269 2,514 2,551 2,505 2,530 42 18 30 95 103 102 115 132 140 150 168 172 13 1 15 50 35 9 8 18 15 18 17 2,447 2,418 2,432 2,476 2,439 2,495 2,415 2,541 2,417 2,575 2,530 168r 177 165 170 178 166 177 173 171 181 183 99 7 2,554 2,488 188 179 1 A djusted for seasonal v ariation, except where indicated. E xcept for departm ent store statistics, all indexes are based upon d a ta from outside sources, as follows: lum ber, N ational L um ber M anufacturers Association and U.S. B ureau of the Census; petroleum , cem ent, copper, and lead, U.S. B ureau of M ines; electric power, F ederal Pow er Commission; nonagricultural and m anufacturing em ploym ent, U.S. B ureau of Labor Statistics and cooperating state agencies; retail food prices, U.S. B ureau of L abor Statistics; carloadings, various railroads and railroad associations; and foreign trade, U.S. B ureau of th e Census. 2 D aily average. 3 N ot a djusted for seasonal variation. 4 Los Angeles, San Francisco, and S eattle indexes combined. 6 C om m ercial cargo only, in physical volume, for Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego, Oregon, and W ashington cus tom s d istricts; startin g w ith Ju ly 1950, “ special category” exports are excluded because of security reasons. 6 A nnual figures are as of end of year, m onthly figures as of la st W ednesday in m onth. 7 D em and deposits, excluding interbank and U.S. G ov’t deposits, less cash item s in process of collection. M onthly d a ta p a rtly estim ated. 8 Average rates on loans m ade in live m ajor cities. 9 Changes from end of previous m onth or year. 10 M inus sign indicates flow of funds out of the D istrict in the case of commercial operations, and excess of receipts over dis bursem ents in th e case of T reasury operations. 11 E nd of year and end of m onth figures. 12 D ebits to to ta l deposits except in te rb a n k p rior to 1942. D ebits to dem and deposits except U.S. G overnm ent and in terb an k deposits from 1942. p— Prelim inary. r— R evised. 40
@FedFRASER