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MONTHLY REVIEW
OF
B U S IN E S S
C O N D IT IO N S
ISAAC B. N EW TO N , Chairman of the Board and Federal Reserve Agent
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Vol. X III
San Francisco, California, June 20,1929
No. 6
S U M M A R Y O F N A T IO N A L C O N D IT IO N S
Prepared by the Federal Reserve Board
Production and distribution of commodities
continued at a high rate in May. W holesale
com m odity prices declined further during the
month, but more recently showed some ad
vance. Total loans and investments of member
banks in leading cities have increased since the
latter part of May.
Production. Industrial production continued
large in May and was accompanied by a fur
ther increase in the volume of factory em ploy
ment and payrolls. Output of the iron and steel
industry increased further, and shipments of
iron ore during May were the largest for that
month of any recent year. Production of pig
iron, steel ingots, and coke was at record levels
and semi-finished and finished steel was pro
duced in large volume. During the first half of
June steel operations remained close to ca
pacity, although some decline from the high
rate of May was reported. Output of automo
biles, which has been in unusually large v ol
ume since the beginning of the year, showed a
slight reduction in May. Copper production at
mines, smelters, and refineries decreased during
May but continued large. Combined stocks of
refined and blister copper at the end of the
month were the largest since 1927. Zinc, lead,
petroleum, and bituminous coal were produced
in larger volume than in April, while the output
of anthracite coal declined. Output in the textile
industries continued large in May, although
there was a decline in activity in silk mills.
Meat production, while larger than in April,
increased less than is usual at this season. Value
of building contracts awarded declined in May,
and was below last year’s level, the decrease in
comparison with 1928 being chiefly in residen
tial building. During the first two weeks of
June, contracts averaged IS per cent less than
in the same period in 1928. The June 1 crop
summary of the Department of Agriculture in
dicated an increase of 43,000,000 bushels, or
more than 7 per cent in the winter wheat crop.
The condition of spring wheat, barley, and hay
was reported to be better than a year ago.
Distribution. The volume of freight ship
ments increased seasonally in May and con
tinued substantially above the total of a year
ago. Department store sales increased in May
and were two per cent larger than in the same
month of the preceding year.
Prices. W holesale prices during May con
tinued the downward movement of the previous
month, according to the index of the United
States Bureau of Labor Statistics. The decline
of the general level was chiefly the result of
price declines in agricultural products and their
manufactures, although prices of other prod
ucts also declined slightly. Prices of cotton and
grains continued sharply downward in May
and there were marked declines in the prices of
hogs, wool, and lambs. Prices of mineral and
forest products and their manufactures aver
aged lower in May than in April, particularly
those of copper, lead, and tin. Petroleum and
gasoline, and iron and steel advanced in price,
PER
Index number of production of manufactures and minerals combined,
adjusted for seasonal variations (1923-1925 average =100).
Latest figure, May, 123.
CENT
Index of United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (1926*« 100, base
adopted by Bureau). Latest figure, May, 95.8.
M O N T H L Y REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS
42
while in lumber there was a slight decline. Since
the latter part of May prices of cattle and hides
have advanced sharply and there have been in
creases in the prices of grains, hogs, and cotton.
Bank Credit. Total loans and investments of
member banks in leading cities, which were at
a low point for the year in the latter part of
May, increased considerably during the subsePER
June, 1929
clined during most of the period and on June 19
were at a level about 450 million dollars below
that of the middle of last year. Volum e of
reserve bank credit outstanding, after increas
ing in the latter part of May, declined in June
and, follow ing the Treasury financial operations
around the middle of the month, showed a small
increase for the four weeks ending June 19. Dis-
CENT
©r
/
/
t
s
A
»
1 /
T 7 r
J /v "
'
^
V
I
------ C O M M E R C I A L P A P E R R A T E
------R E S E R V E B A N K D I S C O U N T R A T E
------ A C C E P T A N C E R A T E
1
1 - - ^
1
, ^ . 1 — — —
1925
1926
,
M O N EY RATES
M on th ly rates in the op en m arket in N e w Y o r k : com m ercial paper rate
on 4- to 6-m onth paper and acceptance rate on 90-day bankers* a c c e p t
ances. Latest figures are averages o f first 22 days in June.
quent three weeks and on June 19 were about
250 million dollars larger than a year ago. The
recent increase reflected a large growth in the
volume of loans on securities, which had de
clined during the preceding two months, and a
further growth in loans chiefly for commercial
and agricultural purposes. Investments de
5Ua
1927
1928
1929
M E M B E R B A N K C R E D IT
M o n th ly averages o f w e e k ly figures for reporting m em ber banks in
leading cities. Latest figures are averages o f first three
w ee k s in m onth.
counts for member banks increased, while
holdings of acceptances and United States se
curities showed a decline. Monetary gold stocks
were further increased. Open market rates on
collateral loans declined in June, while rates
on prime commercial paper and 90-day bankers’
acceptances remained unchanged.
T W E L F T H F E D E R A L R E S E R V E D IS T R IC T C O N D IT IO N S
In the Twelfth Federal Reserve District, in
dustry and trade were active at high levels dur
ing May, 1929, and there was some increase in
commercial demand for bank credit. The agri
cultural outlook continued to reflect unfavor
able weather conditions and persistent declines
in prices of agricultural products and their
manufactures.
During early May, there was some improve
ment in the credit situation and member banks
reduced their borrow ing at the Reserve Bank.
D uring late May and early June, however, there
was evidence of considerable tightening. Com
mercial loans of reporting member banks in
creased further, customers’ deposits were
reduced, the ratio of loans to deposits rose, in
terest rates hardened and borrowing at the
Reserve Bank rose from the low levels estab
lished in mid-May. The expansion in commer
cial loans during recent months has been
partly seasonal in character and has reflected
more active trade and employment. Retail and
wholesale trade, sales of new commercial auto
mobiles and merchandise carloadings increased
during May. Intercoastal traffic and sales of
new passenger automobiles, while slightly
smaller than in April, did not show the full sea
sonal declines. Nearly all lines of trade were
more active than a year ago.
Industry was well maintained at high levels,
but scattered evidence of slowing up appeared
during May. Manufacturing and other activi
ties arising from the processing and handling
of agricultural products, particularly fruits, are
now getting under way. Crop production fore
casts prepared by the Department of A gricul
ture indicate that supplies of raw materials for
these activities are less plentiful this year than
last. Non-seasonal or greater than seasonal
declines in activity appeared in other basic in
dustries — lumber, non-ferrous metals and
building— which have, with the exception of
building, been operating at or near record or
capacity levels during recent months. The v ol
ume of employment increased during May as
compared with April, reflecting chiefly expan
sion in seasonal activities connected with the
production, harvesting, and processing of agri
cultural products.
Growth of grain, fruit, and field crops and of
feed on livestock ranges has been slower than
usual during the past three months, principally
because of subnormal temperatures. Unusually
heavy rainfall in the three coast states during
recent weeks has also been injurious, particu
larly to many fruit crops.
Tune, 1929
fed eral reserve a g e n t a t
As a result of unfavorable weather conditions
the June 1 production estimate of the forth
com ing winter wheat crop in the District was
less than the previous month’s estimate. For
the United States as a whole, prospects are for
a larger crop than last year.
W I N T E R W H E A T - T w e l f t h D istrict and U n ited States
t-------- C on d ition -------- \
4------------- P rodu ction *----------\
(Per cent of normal)
J u n e l, M a y l , J u n e l,
1929
1929
1928
t------F o r e c a s t -------\
J u n e l,
M a y l,
1929
1929
A r iz o n a .............. ... 85
90
90 966
C a lifo rn ia ..............66
71
84
90
85
Id a h o ................. ....84
N e v a d a ...................89
95
98
83
89
O r e g o n ...................79
U tah ................... .... 87
92
93
W a s h in g t o n . . . 71
76
84
T o t a l ............................................................
U n ite d S t a t e s .. 79.6
83.6
73.6
A ctu a l
1928
1,044
10,187
10,542
88
10,472
11,069
94
1,269
16,380
10,488
104
16,173
16,638
20,088
2,740
22,663
63,359
622,148
2,760
22,982
65,059
595,335
3,726
35,600
87,655
578,964
san
condition of other fruits has improved but
slightly. All deciduous fruit and nut crops in
the state, with the exception of walnuts, are in
poorer condition than at this time in any year
since 1924. In Oregon and W ashington, pro
duction prospects for the 1929 crops of apples,
pears, peaches, and prunes are generally simi
lar to those in California. In Idaho, where de
ciduous fruit production is relatively small, the
apple, cherry, prune, and peach crops are re
ported to be in better condition than one year
ago.
D E C I D U O U S F R U I T S A N D N U T S - C a lif o r n ia
f-------C o n d it io n -------(Per cent of normal)
J u n e l, M a y l , J u n e l,
1928
1929
1929
A p r ic o t s
C h erries
G ra pes
* I n th ou sa n d s o f bu sh els.
S o u r c e : U n ite d S tates D e p a rtm e n t o f A g ric u ltu re .
.................
.................
57
52
..........
Production estimates of the 1929 barley, oats,
rye, and spring wheat crops and the important
field crops are not yet available, but a relatively
poor condition of these crops reflects the influ
ence of the same factors as have affected winter
wheat.
C O N D IT IO N O F S P R IN G S O W N G R A IN S A N D H A Y
(Per cent of normal)
Spring W heat
Oats
June 1,
June 1,
1929 1928 1929
1928
A r i z o n a ..............
C a liforn ia
I d a h o .................
N e v a d a ...............
O r e g o n ..............
U ta h ...................
W a s h in g to n . . .
U n ite d S ta tes. . .
88
90
84
88
77
84.8
87
93
83
94
84
79.0
82
70
88
87
88
90
84
82.0
90
88
86
98
87
95
85
78.3
Barley
June 1,
1929 1928
90
69
89
91
88
92
82
83.7
90
84
86
95
88
93
83
82.7
T a m e H ay
June 1,
1929
1928
82
81
85
85
86
87
81
86.6
93
88
89
97
91
93
87
76.6
S o u r c e : U n ite d S tates D e p a rtm e n t o f A g ric u ltu re .
California citrus fruits have developed slowly
in the past few weeks but they are reported to
be in good condition. The production estimate
of the 1929 Valencia orange crop dropped
slightly during May to 19,520,000 boxes, at
which figure it is more than twice as large as
the small 1928 crop of 9,300,000 boxes. The 1929
lemon crop estimate is now 4,698,000 boxes, a
figure approximating estimates of crops har
vested in each of the past five years. Shipments
of the large Navel orange crop from California
during the period from November 1, 1928, to
June 1, 1929, amounted to 42,240 carloads. Dur
ing the corresponding period in 1927 and 1928,
shipments totaled 31,970 carloads from the
smaller crop of that season. Lemon shipments
from California were 7,970 carloads and 5,890
carloads, respectively, for the same two periods.
The heavy supplies of small sized citrus fruit
have been an important factor in marketing the
fruit in the past few months and average
monthly prices, f.o.b. California, have ranged
from 7 to 60 per cent lower this season than last.
The outlook for deciduous fruits generally is
not so favorable this year as last. Since the
May crop report, the condition of apples, pears,
and prunes in California has declined and the
43
f r a n c is c o
T a b le ...................
C lin g sto n e
F r e e s t o n e .......... ! ! ! ’ ’
,.
.
.......
A lm o n d s ................
....
. . .
t-------P ro d u ctio n !------F orecast
June 1,1929
A ctu al
1928
175
19
180
15
55
62
100
96
96
68
71
78
42
36
55
64
50
50
30
57
55
48
30
83
1,066*
385
472
61 8 1
414+
204
225
66
220
14
25
296
156
140
166
40
128
79
83
71
70
63
^ In clu d e s ra isin g ra p e s s o ld fre sh and d rie d .
h a rv e ste d . $ In th o u sa n d s o f to n s .
S o u r c e : C a lifo rn ia C r o p R e p o rt.
f7 0 ,0 0 0 to n s n o t
Although there was some improvement in
range feed conditions during May the lack of
ground moisture during recent months is be
coming evident. Feed supplies, while short,
have been highly nutritious, and livestock are
reported to be in relatively better condition
than ranges.
C O N D IT IO N O F L IV E S T O C K A N D R A N G E S
(Per cent of normal)
,------- Ranges--------* <------- C a t t le --------\ ------- S h e e p ---------\
June M a y June June M a y June June M a y June
1.
1929
A r iz o n a ......... ....70
C a lifo rn ia . . . 69
I d a h o .............. ....86
N e v a d a ..............81
O r e g o n ................89
U t a h .....................86
W a s h in g t o n . . 8 2
1.
1929
71
71
79
73
80
70
76
1,
1928
78
83
86
86
91
95
96
1.
1929
75
86
90
85
93
85
89
I,
1929
78
86
86
79
88
80
85
1.
1928
82
91
93
92
96
95
95
1.
1929
85
86
90
80
92
80
86
h
1929
85
86
88
71
85
76
85
1,
1928
91
93
92
92
95
96
97
S o u r c e : W e s t e r n L iv e S t o c k and R a n g e R e p o r t , U n ite d States
D e p a r tm e n t o f A g r ic u ltu r e .
The movement of cattle and calves to the
eight principal markets in the District totaled
77,900 head during the first five months of 1929
as compared with 80,800 head received during
the corresponding period in 1928. Prices for
cattle have been steady during recent weeks at
levels approximating those of a year ago.
Early reports from those areas of the District
which produce spring lambs indicate a reduc
tion of from 10 to 20 per cent in the 1929 lamb
crop as compared with a year ago, the result of
heavier lamb and breeding ewe losses, and a
decrease in the number of twin lambs born this
year. Record shipments of lambs from Califor
nia despite the decrease in the 1929 lamb crop
may be explained by the fact that a shortage of
44
range forage during April and May forced
earlier and heavier shipments of lambs to mar
ket. There has also been a tendency this year
to ship more ewe lambs than formerly, retain
ing for breeding purposes a smaller proportion
of them than during recent years. Lamb prices
at Pacific Coast markets declined during May.
In early June they were steady at levels about
5 per cent lower than in June, 1928.
SPRING L A M B S -S H IP M E N T S FROM C A L IF O R N IA EAST
Mar. 1 5 - June 15
1929
1928
1927
1926
1925
1924
June, 1929
M O N T H L Y R EVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS
Live
....................................................... .... 520,000
.... 374,000
....................................................... .... 369,550
....................................................... .....228,560
....................................................... .... 254,100
............................................................ 80,000
Dressed
Total
58,000
57,000
57,550
59,020
75,890
182,530
578,000
431,000
427,100
287,580
329,990
262,530
the industrial centers of the Pacific Coast were
reported to be active and employment increased
seasonally. Employment has been adversely af
fected by curtailment in the lumber industry
and by the late spring, which has retarded agri
cultural activities. Industrial carloadings in
creased from April to M ay and were heavier
than in May a year ago.
IN D E X
130
NUM BERS
120
S o u r c e : U n it e d S ta te s D e p a r tm e n t o f A g r ic u ltu r e , M a r k e t N e w s
S e r v ic e — San F r a n c is c o , C a lifo rn ia .
Few sales of w ool have been made during re
cent weeks in the District and it is now esti
mated that from 30 to 50 per cent of the 1929
clip has passed from grow ers’ hands. A year
ago practically all the 1928 clip had been sold.
This year’s w ool sales have been at prices 15 to
25 per cent below those paid in 1928.
Industry
Expansion of industrial activity in the
Tw elfth District appears to have been checked
during May, 1929, but output was considerably
above that of a year ago. There is usually a
slight increase in activity from April to May, a
seasonal tendency not evident this year, due in
considerable part to the sustained record v ol
ume of mineral and factory output during the
first four months of 1929. Output of refined
oils, lumber, copper, cement, flour, and of
meat packing establishments was reduced. In
dexes of engineering contracts awarded and
building permits issued in the District declined
slightly. General manufacturing operations in
(A) Employment—
(-------- California—
No. of
No. - Employees No.
of
May,
May,
of
Industries
Firms 1929
1928 Firms
All Industries.......... 732 155,281 143,048 149
(8.6)
S to n e , C la y and
6,654
( — 1.9)
6,784
112
24,596
( — 3 .9 )
25,599
T e x t i l e s .................
18
2,359
( — 3 .1 )
2,435
C lo th in g , M illin e ry
and L a u n d e r in g .
60
8,519
(2 .9 )
8,276
F o o d , B e v e ra g e s
and T o b a c c o . . .
159
25,791
( — 0 .6 )
25,951
4
3,700
( — 5 .9 )
3,933
O th e r I n d u s t r ie s f . 323
81,407
(1 9 .8 )
67,975
2,255
(7 .6 )
2,095
G lass P r o d u c t s .
L u m b e r and W o o d
M a n u fa c tu r e s . .
W a t e r , L ig h t and
P o w e r .................
M is c e lla n e o u s
. ..
43
13
-Oregon—
No. of
■Employees May,
May,
1929
1928
26,425
25,738
{2.7)
171
(- - 3 0 . 2 )
245
51
16,221
(1 .3 )
16,016
11
2,160
(9 .9 )
1,966
458
( 1 .1 )
453
1,667
(6 .7 )
1,562
5
8*
43
31
5,748
( 4 .6 )
5,496
^ L a u n d e r in g o n ly , f l n c l u d e s the fo llo w in g in d u s t r ie s : m etals,
m a c h in e r y an d c o n v e y a n c e s ; leath er and r u b b e r g o o d s ;
c h e m ic a ls , o ils an d p a i n t s ; p r in t in g an d p a p e r g o o d s .
Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from May, 1928.
90W
1925
1926
1928
1927
1929
IN D U ST R IAL C A R L O A D IN G S —T W E L F T H D ISTRICT
Index adjusted for seasonal variation; 1923-1925 daily average=100.
Latest figure, May, 124.
The lumber cut in the Pacific Northwest de
creased from April to May contrary to the usual
seasonal expectations, but was heavier than a
year ago. Both rail and waterborne shipments
of lumber were large. During the latter part of
the month, however, orders declined and were
smaller than either the cut or shipments. Gross
stocks at mills were smaller at the end of
May, 1929, than at the end of May, 1928.
Total production of petroleum in California,
was larger in May than in April, although daily
average production declined slightly. During
the week ended June 15 daily average produc
tion reached 815,000 barrels, compared with a
peak production of 872,000 barrels in 1923. The
Santa Fe Springs field has contributed most to
the recent increases. Consumption of gasoline
has been heavy this year, both in California
(B) Industry—
Indexes of daily average production, adjusted for seasonal variation
(1923-1925 daily average = 100)
,------------ 1929----------- N 1928
M a n u fa c tu re s:
F l o u r .............................................................
M a v
94
A Pr105
M ttr118
M "> '
102
S la u g h te r o f L iv e s t o c k .............................
82
Lum ber
............................................................ 105*
R e fin e d M in e ra l O ils f ............................... 180
C e m e n t ............................................................... 103
W o o l c o n s u m p tio n ................................................
85
1130
189
106
76
80
113
180
118
73
96
103
145
111
81
118
141
122
106
119
135
1120
930
96
110
101
85
117
79
119
740
113
71
168
203
187
268
143
128
M in e r a ls :
P e tr o le u m ( C a l i f o m i a ) t ........................... 117
C o p p e r ( U n it e d S t a t e s )* ........................ 139
L e a d ( U n it e d S ta te s ) $ .......................................
S ilv e r (U n ite d S ta te s) % ............................. 100
G e n e r a l:
C a rlo a d in g s— In d u s tria l ........................... 124
V a lu e o f B u ild in g P e r m its § fl.................
73
V a lu e o f E n g in e e r in g C o n tr a c ts
A w arded§
T o t a l .......................................................... 134
______ E x c lu d in g B u i l d i n g s .......................... 146
*Preliminary. fN ot adjusted for seasonal variation. tPrepared by
Federal Reserve Board. §Indexes are for three months ending
on the month indicated. flTwenty cities. ORevised.
June, 1929
FEDERAL RESERVE AG EN T A T SAN FRANCISCO
45
and in the United States, and shipments of
The total value of building permits issued in
gasoline from California to the Atlantic Coast the District declined slightly during May, and
were substantially larger during May, 1929, engineering and construction contracts awarded
than in May, 1928. On the other hand, ship have tended downward during recent months.
ments of crude oil were substantially smaller It is estimated, however, that building and
than a year ago. A t the end of May, 1929, stored construction are more active than a year ago
stocks of heavy crude oils in California were with virtually all sections of the District show
considerably greater in volume than at the end ing increases over the year period.
of May last year.
Output of the District's copper mines de Trade
creased slightly during May, 1929, but was
Trade was generally active in the Twelfth
considerably larger than a year ago. Sales of Federal Reserve District during May, 1929.
copper were light during the month and smelter Retail and wholesale trade, sales of new com
stocks increased sharply. Stocks are still at mercial automobiles and merchandise and mis
relatively low levels, however. A second recent cellaneous carloadings increased during the
reduction of 5 per cent in the wages of mine IN D EX N U M B E R S
employees became effective June 1. These two
reductions follow ed a series of advances which
130
amounted to 25 per cent and which culminated
R E T A 1L
in April, 1929. The present mine wage scale is 120
A # A / 'A
S¡A L E S
V
J
^
r
at a level 15 per cent above that prevailing a
W
l
year ago.
110
/
WHO L E S A L E
l\ i *
'
ä SALES a
Flour milling activity in the Tw elfth District
V
M V/ 11 *\ - r*A\
declined seasonally during May and less flour 100 O '
\f Vi 1 \
was produced than in May, 1928. The recent
v
90
sharp fluctuations of wheat prices have had an
unfavorable influence upon the milling indus
A/—--------“■ — -W
try, causing both buyers and sellers to hesitate
in making commitments. Mill stocks of flour R E T A I L A N D W H O L E S A L E T R A D E — T W E L F T H D I S T R I C T
In dexes adjusted fo r seasonal variation. 1923-1925 average = 100. D aily
were smaller at the end of May, 1929, than at
average figures o f departm ent store sales. M on th ly figures o f
sales at w holesale.
the end of May, 1928.
month and were larger than in May, 1928. Sales
(C ) Bank Debits*—
of new passenger automobiles and movements
of commodities in the intercoastal trade de
M ay,
M av,
r - F irst F iv e M on th s — s
1929
1928
1929
1928
A r iz o n a
clined from April to May but were heavier than
P h o e n ix ..........$
46,154 $
36,871
$
224,311
$
175,535
in May a year ago. Preliminary reports indicate
C a liforn ia
further increases for the month in the District’s
B a k ersfield . . .
13,181
13,888
72,488
73,405
B e r k e le y
....
21,291
21,958
107,155
109,152
import and export trade.
35,380
58,409
1,164,699
252 ,824
43,691
47,393
11.690
65,874
1,791,817
26,854
14,000
29,170
155,178
326,714
6,246,108
1,206,051
224,766
241,970
57.357
333,571
6,912.817
140,792
84,597
136,363
168,052
272,505
5,376,869
1,258,523
216,979
238,766
52.790
318.345
7,787,510
135.023
69,407
144,492
13,491
14,675
71,943
68,646
13,027
9,167
59,678
43,911
37,095
939,146$
35,403
828,093
29,529
F r e s n o ............
L o n g B e a c h ..
60,533
L o s A n g e le s . . 1,239,702
235,107
O a k la n d ..........
42,483
P a sa d e n a . . . .
48,335
S a c r a m e n to . .
11,049
San B e r n a rd in o
San D ie g o . . .
63,397
San F r a n c is c o . 1,321,661
San J o s e . . . .
28,828
16,548
S a n ta B a rb a ra
S to ck to n
....
28,918
Idaho
B o is e
N evada
R en o
...............
.................
O reg on
E u g e n e ............
P o r t la n d
....
8,311
20 2 ,0 1 6 t
U ta h
O g d e n ...............
S alt L a k e C ity
17,739
76,635
15,806
71,055
89,592
395,632
83,849
363,807
W a s h in g t o n
B e llin g h a m . .
E v e re tt ............
R itz v ille .........
S eattle ............
S p o k a n e ..........
T a c o m a ..........
Y a k im a ..........
10,748
15,082
972
258,820
59,677
50,568
13,481
10,566
13,543
920
261,450
56,126
45,838
12,239
52,029
69,883
4,382
1,318,681
297,160
247,832
67,508
49,749
63,357
4,623
1,213,194
278,361
224,851
62,662
8,357
201,136
T o t a l ............ $ 3 ,9 4 7 ,2 8 3 t $4,335,396
$20 ,120 ,79 9$ $19,717,859
* I n th o u sa n d s o f d o lla rs , f ln c l u d e s $9,256,000 at fo u r b a n k s n o t
r e p o r t in g p r io r to w eek e n d e d M a y 2, 1928. ^ In clu d e s $75,0 84 ,000 at fo u r b a n k s n o t r e p o r t in g p r io r to w e e k e n ded
M a y 2, 1928.
(D) Distribution and TradeF o r e ig n T r a d e 0
T o t a l t ......................
I m p o r t s ! .................
E x p o r ts .................
I n te r co a s ta l T r a d e 0
,------------- 1929-------------s
M ay
A p r.
M ar.
--------- In dex N um bers*
149
137
156
92
125
76
C a rlo a d in g s
120
T o t a l i .....................
M e r ch a n d is e and M is c e lla n e o u s ^ . 118
W h o le s a le T r a d e
S ales§ ........................
109
R e ta il T r a d e
A u to m o b ile S a le s î
138
134
C o m m e r c ia l V e h ic le s
175
D e p a r tm e n t S to r e
121
S a le s î
............................
108
f----- -S tock
Turnover|[
.26
1928
M ay
125
130
129
92
127
80
98
125
87
82
106
75
116
118
117
122
111
113
105
101
103
131
129
146
127
125
149
100
100
95
115
101
125
105
114
109
A ctual Figures
.24
.26
.24
C o lle c t io n s #
47.4
14.8
45.9
15.9
46.4
15.3
46.4
16.1
* A d ju s t e d fo r season al v a r ia tio n s, 1923-1925 a v e r a g e = 1 0 0 . t E x clu d in g raw silk. J D a ily a v e r a g e . § M o n th ly to ta ls o f ten
lin es c o m b in e d . 1fAt end o f m o n th . ||P r o p o r t io n o f a v e ra g e
s t o c k s s o ld d u r in g m o n th . # P e r ce n t o f c o lle c t io n s d u r in g
m o n th to a m o u n t o u ts ta n d in g at first o f m on th . “ I n d e x e s
a re fo r th ree m o n th s e n d in g o n m o n th in d ica te d .
June, 1929
M O N T H L Y REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS
46
Sales at retail increased substantially during
May, 1929, as compared with both April, 1929,
and May, 1928. Department and furniture store
sales increased generally, except in the Pacific
Northwest. A ccording to preliminary figures,
chain grocery sales nearly equaled the record
volume reported for August, 1928. Department
store stocks were considerably larger at the end
of May than at the end of April,butweresm aller
than stocks carried at the end of May, 1928.
R E T A I L T R A D E — T w elfth D istrict
D e p a r tm e n t S t o r e s f . .
A p p a r e l S to r e s ............ F u rn itu r e S to r e s . . . .
A ll S to r e s ......................
,---------N E T S A L E S * --------- N
J a n .l to
M a y , 1929
M a y 31,1929
com pared with
com pared
Jan. 1 to
with
M ay 31,1928
M a y , 1928
2.7 ( 68)
4.6
( 68)
3.4 ( 29)
- 0 .0 4 ( 29)
3.3 ( 48)
9.8
( 48)
2.8 (1 4 5 )
4.9
(1 4 5 )
STOCK*
M a y , 1929
com pared
with
M a y . 1928
— 4.2 (5 1 )
4.6 (1 7 )
0.8 (3 1 )
— 2.9 (9 9 )
* P e r c e n t a g e in cre a s e o r d e c r e a s e ( — ) . F ig u r e s in pare n th e se s in
d ic a t e n u m b e r o f sto re s r e p o r tin g , f I n c lu d e s d r y g o o d s sto re s.
Sales at wholesale continued at levels well
above those of a year ago and, contrary to the
seasonal expectation, increased during the
month. A s compared with May, 1928, sales in
creased substantially in all lines for which this
Bank compiles data, except agricultural imple
ments, drugs, and shoes.
Total carloadings increased during May,
1929, as compared with both April, 1929, and
May, 1928, due chiefly to increased loadings of
forest products and of livestock. Carloadings
of merchandise and miscellaneous freight in
creased from April to May and this Bank’s sea
sonally adjusted index showed no change dur
ing the tw o months.
Total sales of new automobiles, adjusted for
seasonal variation, increased by 3 per cent dur
ing M ay as compared with April, and were 38
per cent above those in May, 1928. Sales of
new passenger automobiles remained at high
levels during May, 1929, and the small decline
from April was of less than usual seasonal pro
portions. Sales of new trucks expanded more
than seasonally from April to May and were
the largest on record since 1922.
Intercoastal trade of the District declined
during May, 1929, but was heavier than during
May, 1928. Movements of cargo from the A t
lantic to the Pacific Coast declined only slightly
during the month, but shipments from Pacific
to Atlantic Coast ports dropped sharply. Eastbound shipments of petroleum and of general
cargo were substantially lighter during May,
1929, than during April, 1929, or May, 1928, but
shipments of lumber increased and were rela
tively large.
Prices
The downward trend in wholesale prices of
commodities since the beginning of 1929 has
been the result almost entirely of declines in
quotations for agricultural products and their
manufactures. Index numbers of prices in gen
eral groups of commodities, such as hides and
leather products, textiles, and foods have moved
almost steadily toward lower levels during the
past six months. The fuels and chemicals and
drugs groups have also contributed to the de
cline. Metals prices show some net increase
since the beginning of the year, and building
materials prices have advanced slightly. Q uo
tations in both of these groups of commodities
have declined during the past six weeks, how
ever. Farm products prices now average ap
proximately 8 per cent below their level of one
year ago, while average prices of non-agricultural commodities are approximately the same.
Prices of farm products declined sharply
during April and May. Quotations for wheat
continued to decline during late May, and at
the end of that month the July contract at Chi
cago sold at the lowest levels since July 1, 1923.
A rapid recovery of nearly half of the AprilMay decline took place during the first few days
of June, but since then quotations have fluctu
ated erratically.
California dried fruit prices have advanced
moderately this spring, the increase in raisin
quotations being perhaps of chief importance in
this group. Preliminary negotiations for can
ning peaches and pears indicate that grow ers’
prices per ton will be substantially (probably
more than 100 per cent) higher than last year,
when the best grade fruit sold for $20 per ton
for peaches and from $42 to $48 per ton for
pears. Canners are reported to have offered
prices ranging from $37.50 to $75 per ton for
apricots this year, compared with prices rang
ing from $27.50 to $55 per ton last year. This
increase of prices will tend to offset the greatly
reduced volume of production due to late frosts.
Softwood lumber markets have been rela
tively firm this year, although slight declines
in Douglas fir and in California redwood prices
have been reported during recent weeks.
Credit Situation
The apparent improvement in the credit situ
ation of the Twelfth Federal Reserve District
early in May proved to be temporary, and dur
ing late May and early June, there was evidence
of considerable tightening. Commercial loans
of member banks increased, customers’ deposits
were reduced, the ratio of loans to deposits
I N T E R E S T R A T E S * — San F ra n cisco
r---------- 1929------------ ^
C o m m e r c ia l p a p e r e lig ib le f o r
r e d is c o u n t
..................................
D e m a n d loa n s se cu re d b y
S t o c k E x ch a n g e C o lla te r a l.
T im e lo a n s se cu re d b y S t o c k
E x ch a n g e C o lla tera l ............
C o m m o d it y lo a n s s e c u r e d b y
w a re h o u s e r e c e i p t s ....................
1928
1927
June
M ay
A p ril
June
June
5.92
5.61
5.54
5.11
5.10
6.76
6.41
6.42
5.76
5.65
6.39
6.12
6.10
5.88
5.72
6.12
5.96
5.96
5.82
5.79
* A w e ig h te d a v e ra g e o f rates ch a rg e d to cu sto m e rs b y m e m b e i
b a n k s.
June, 1929
FEDERAL RESERVE AG EN T AT SAN FRANCISCO
rose, interest rates hardened and borrowing at
the Reserve Bank increased from the low level
established in mid-May.
During 1927 and 1928 the expansion in mem
ber bank credit reflected growth in the banks’
security loans and investments, loans for com
mercial purposes showing almost no net change
over the two-year period. During the first quar
ter of 1929, the expansion was the result almost
entirely of increased security loans, investment
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
2100
1600
47
creased 8 million dollars to 372 million dollars,
but during the first three weeks of the month
averaged lower than at any time this year. The
ratios of loans and of loans and investments to
deposits rose, however, and the trend of inter
est rates, which has been upward since 1927,
was sharply accelerated.
The increase in demand for reserve bank
credit from the middle of May to June 19 was a
result chiefly of transfers out of the District
amounting to 10 million dollars and an excess of
Treasury receipts over disbursements amount
ing to 9 millions. These transactions were par
tially offset by a reduction of 7 million dollars
in money in circulation, a decrease of 7 millions
in member bank reserve balances and extensive
purchases of gold by the mint.
FE D E R A L RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO
(In millions of dollars)
r ~Average Condition During Month-^
June*,
1929
1500
1927
»928
T o t a l B ills and S e c u r i t i e s . ..
B ills D is c o u n t e d ........................
B ills B o u g h t ...............................
U n ite d S ta te s S e c u r it ie s ..........
T o ta l R e se rv e s .......................... .
T o t a l D e p o s i t s ............................. . .
F ed era l R e s e rv e N o te s in
C ircu la tio n ............................... . .
»929
C hart I
C h a r t II
M EM BER BANK CR EDIT
May,
1929
April,
1929
June,
1928
87
62
12
13
277
182
92
65
15
12
268
183
113
80
19
14
246
183
87
50
20
18
294
189
161
156
156
172
* A v e r a g e o f first 19 d ays.
Monthly averages of weekly figures of Twelfth District reporting
member banks. Latest figures are averages for the
first three report dates in June.
holdings and commercial loans being reduced
during this period. The expansion during the
first two months of the second quarter of the
year was the result entirely of the growth of
commercial loans, as security loans and invest
ments showed a net reduction. During June,
however, investments continued to decline while
security loans reached the highest figure for the
year.
The volume of security trading upon the prin
cipal stock exchanges of the District continued
at about 50 per cent of the volume for corre
sponding months of 1928.
M IL L IO N S O F D O L L A R S
M IL L IO N S
OF
DO LLARS
REPORTING M EM BER B AN K S— Twelfth District
(In millions of dollars)
r -Average Condition During M onths
T o t a l L o a n s and In v e s tm e n ts . . .
T o t a l L o a n s .........................................
C o m m e r c ia l L o a n s ..........................
L o a n s o n S e c u r itie s ......................
I n v e s tm e n ts
......................................
N e t D e m a n d D e p o s it s ...................
T im e D e p o s it s .................................
B o r r o w in g s fro m F e d e ra l R e s e rv e
June*,
1929
May,
1929
April,
1929
1,962
1,334
917
418
627
765
991
1,957
1,316
898
418
641
760
994
1,944
1,299
886
413
645
765
977
1,857
1,251
886
365
606
798
940
June,
1928
50
52
69
43
* A v e r a g e o f first th ree re p o rts.
The rise in commercial loans was partly sea
sonal in character and reflected chiefly seasonal
expansion in trade and employment. On
June 19, loans and investments reached the
highest point recorded this year. This m ove
ment followed the Treasury’s financing opera
tions of June 15. A t that time member banks
in this District were allotted 46 million dollars
of 5y$ per cent certificates of indebtedness.
Member bank government deposits increased
32 million dollars during the week of June 19
and investments in United States securities in
RESERVE BANK CREDIT*
C H A R T V — Principal factors affecting demand for credit at Federal
Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Monthly changes cumulated from
April 1,1927. Figures are for report dates nearest the middle of each
month, latest figures being for June 19.
Solid line shows total of: (a) demand for currency, (b) Treasury re
ceipts and disbursements, (c) imports and exports of gold, (d) mint
purchases of new gold, (e) transfers of funds between Twelfth Dis
trict and other parts of United States. Broken line shows total bill
and security holdings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
C H A R T V I— Monthly averages of daily figures, Federal Reserve Bank
of San Francisco. Latest figures are averages for first 19 days in June.
* T h e a m o u n t o f b ills a n d s e cu ritie s h e ld b y th e F e d e ra l R e s e r v e
B a n k o f San F r a n c is c o is n o t an e n tire ly a c c u r a te m easu re
o f T w e lft h D is t r ic t d e m a n d f o r R e s e r v e B a n k cr e d it. I t
in clu d e s s e cu ritie s (a n d b ills ) p u rch a s e d o u ts id e o f the
T w e lft h D is t r ic t and d o e s n o t in c lu d e b ills p u rch a s e d in th is
D is t r ic t an d a llo tte d t o o th e r F e d e ra l re se rv e ba n k s.
TW ELFTH
¿25.
FEDERAL RESERVE
D IS T R IC T
Includes the states of Arizona,
except the five Southeastern
Counties, California, Idaho,
Nevada, Oregon, Utah and
Washington.
@FedFRASER