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Monthly R eview FEDERAL RESERVE B A N K O F S A N JUNE FRA N C ISC O 1947 REVIEW OF BUSINESS C O N D IT IO N S— TWELFTH DISTRICT mixed developments have marked the gen eral business situation in the District in recent months. The extractive industries, including agriculture, mining, logging and lumbering, and petroleum, as well as con struction, have expanded seasonally. Manufacturing em ployment has remained relatively static for a number of months, with the recent drift downward rather than u p ; but industrial wage rates and payrolls have continued to advance. Metals are still in scarce supply. The freight car situation remains tight. Retail trade, while still showing increases in total dollar volume over last year, has proba bly fallen off in physical volume except in such durable goods lines as automobiles, household appliances, and furniture. Some reduction, as compared with last year, has occurred in agricultural prices and in growers’ re ceipts from citrus fruits and from deliveries of fruits and vegetables to canneries. Late rains benefited pastures and livestock ranges, but orchard and field crops in scattered areas were damaged by rain and wind. o m e w h a t S Acute lumber shortage over; industry more cautious Among the basic extractive industries of the District, lumber in particular was stimulated by advancing prices, in late 1946 and early 1947, to high rates of activity. Esti mated District lumber production for the first five months of this year aggregated about 5.5 billion board feet. This was nearly 25 percent above the reported output for the corresponding months of 1946, when the industry wras still hampered by labor difficulties and by adverse weather conditions, and wTas fully up to the average output for the same period during the years 1942 to 1945. Prices, both for finished material and for rough, uncured lumber, advanced at a rapid pace for several months following the ending of price controls. For a considerable period, in fact, the lumber market was characterized as chaotic, with buyers frantically bidding against each other to secure almost any kind of material. By the end of May wholesale prices had begun to ease somewhat, especially in the lowrer grades. Informed trade opinion now indicates that the acute lumber shortage is definitely past, except in hardwood flooring and certain mill work items. General construction lumber can now be obtained fairly readily. Inventories have improved at all levels, but especially in distributors’ yards; retail stocks, for the country as a whole, were reported in May to be more than double those of a year before. Demand for lumber from the construction industry, while maintained at substantial levels, has become more orderly and more selective. There is no longer an urgency to buy any and all types of lumber, cured or green, and demand is largely confined to kiln dried standard dimension material. These changes have brought about a more cautious temper among the lumber producers. Some mills are be coming increasingly reluctant to build up large inven tories on the basis of present high costs for fear of a pos sible price drop. The seasonal expansion in employment and output in the Douglas fir area, for example, wras somewhat less this year than usual. Reports have been widely prevalent that the smaller mills in particular, which frequently do not have the equipment to cure or finish their rough lumber, have been adversely affected by the recent market trend. Many of them have shut down and predictions are general in the trade that many more will be forced to do so. Petroleum demand and output increasing A rising demand has characterized the market during the current year for most types of petroleum products, including Diesel oil, lubricants, and heavy fuel oils, as well as gasoline. Taxable sales of motor gasoline in the three Pacific Coast states during the first four months of 1947 were nearly 15 percent above those of the same period last year. Prices of oil products and of crude pe troleum advanced sharply in March and crude oil prices advanced again in the last wreek of June. The cost of drill ing new wells is reported in the trade to have increased disproportionately to the price of oil during recent years, and the lifting of crude petroleum prices was expected to result in some stimulus to drilling operations. District output of crude petroleum has shown a gradual increase from last October to April of this year, when production was less than five percent below the maximum wartime rates of output attained in mid-1945. Gasoline output has risen steadily since January. In April it nearly equaled that of August, the highest month of last year, and was within ten percent of the wartime peak rates of July-August 1945, wdien local petroleum supplies were being supplemented by crude oil brought from West Texas oil fields. Output of other refined oils, notably lubricants, has increased sharply from the average levels of a year and two years ago. 54 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK Fuel oil production, however, has shown little increase in 1947 from the low levels of late 1946 and was substan tially below the average ouput during the corresponding months of the past three years. In May public utilities in the Pacific Northwest were reported to be having diffi culty in contracting for sufficient supplies of fuel oil. Employment down in some California industries Little basic change has occurred in recent months in the activity of the aircraft plants and shipyards of the District. The former are still employed predominantly on Government orders, the latter on ship repair and scrap ping. Employment in California aircraft plants in May was slightly below the levels of last winter but nearly up to the average of last year. Shipyard employment is lower than a year ago and appears due for further decline. Of the 21 principal manufacturing industry groups in Cali fornia, thirteen employed fewer wage earners in April or May than in the earlier months of this year. The extreme case is the apparel industry, which reported employment in May as 5,000 below February and 3,000 less than a year ago. The same trend has also characterized Califor nia non-manufacturing industries; almost all of them provided fewer jobs in April or May than during the first quarter, and in some cases were operating even below June 1947 OF SAN FRANCISCO the levels of a year ago. The current high level of com modity prices appears to be exerting a restraining influ ence on industrial employment as well as on the physical volume of retail trade. Retail trade The aggregate dollar volume of District department stores in April and May continued near the high levels of earlier months of this year. There can be little doubt that high prices played a more important part in this result than increased physical sales. It is almost certain that the physical volume of retail trade, except for con sumer durable goods such as automobiles and major household appliances, has fallen below that of a year ago. In the case of department stores, average daily sales for the District as a whole were only about six percent higher in May than in the same month last year. This increase is well below the average advance in retail prices that occurred within the year-period. Sales of a repre sentative group of District apparel stores in May ex ceeded those of May 1946 by about two percent, while April sales fell eight percent below those of the previous April. District furniture stores made a much better show ing. In every month of 1947, their sales have been at least 25 percent above sales in the same month of 1946. MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS IN TWELFTH DISTRICT STATES, DECEMBER 31, 1946 A N D M A Y 28f 1947 ver t h e first five months of 1947 total member bank O deposits declined in every state of the Twelfth Dis trict except Arizona, where they showed no change on May 28, 1947 compared to December 31,1946. The more favorable experience of Arizona is probably seasonal in large part; cash farm income received during the first five months of 1945 and 1946 was a much larger part of total annual farm income in Arizona than in any other state of the District. The experience of Nevada member banks was also better than average for the District; although total de posits fell off, the decline of 3.3 percent was substantially smaller than anywhere else in the District. In the other five states the decline in total deposits varied from 5 per cent to 9 percent. Demand deposits other than interbank showed some what larger declines, varying from about 7.5 percent in Oregon to more than 11 percent in Idaho; in Nevada the fall in these deposits was 5 percent, and in Arizona there was virtually no change. The fluctuation in total time deposits by states was slight, varying from a loss of just under 2 percent to a gain of just under 2 percent. Two states, Idaho and Ne vada, showed no change. For the District as a whole, however, a gain in total time deposits took place as the result of increases in Arizona and California; almost all of the dollar increase occurred in the latter state. So far this year the restrictive effect of Treasury debt retirement upon bank deposits has outweighed the ex pansionary effect of further increases in bank loans. This D i s t r ib u t io n of M e m b e r B a n k D e m a n d a n d T i m e D e p o s it s i n t h e T w e l f t h D is t r ic t , b y S t a t e s , a n d i n t h e U n it e d S t a t e s , D ecem ber 31, 1946 and M ay 28, 1947 (millions of dollars) Interbank t--------- except interbank---------State or area A r iz o n a .................... California ............... Idaho ........................ Nevada ................... Oregon .................... U tah ........................ W ashington .......... TW ELFTH D I S T R I C T -----United States . . . . Dec. 31. 1946 227 6,947 293 101 846 305 1,210 M ay 28, 1947 226 6,309 260 96 782 278 1,116 9,929 9,067 78,920 75,491 Percent change 0 — 9.2 — 11.3 — 5.0 — 7.6 — 8.9 — 7.8 (----------demand deposits---------- ■> Dec. 31, 1946 3 412 6 1 37 46 87 May 28, 1947 3 342 4 1 32 33 72 Percent change a — 17.0 a a — 13.5 — 28.3 — 17.2 Dec. 31, 1946 287 11,969 380 151 1,248 466 1,817 Total deposits M ay 28, Percent 1947 change 287 0 11,345 — 5.2 345 — 9.2 146 — 3.3 1,177 — 5.7 424 — 9.0 1,697 — 6.6 8.7 592 487 — 17.7 5,797 5,867 + 1.2 16,318 15,421 — 5.5 — 4.3 11,998 10,724 — 10.6 27,252 27,918 + 2.4 118,170 114,133 — 3.4 — a Because of smallness of dollar amounts and rounding, percent change is not significant. /-------- Total time dep<»sits--------N Dec. 31, May 28, Percent 1947 1946 change 57 58 + 1.8 4,611 4,694 + 1.8 81 81 0 49 49 0 365 363 — 0.5 115 113 — 1.7 519 509 — 1.9 June, 1947 55 M O N T H L Y REVIEW has been true both for the Twelfth District and for the United States, but the deposit decline was greater in the District than in the country as a whole. Through May, total Twelfth District member bank deposits declined 5.5 percent compared with a decrease of 3,4 percent for the entire country. The greater decline in the District may have been re lated in some degree to the debt retirement program; if the Twelfth District possessed less than its proportionate share of the nonbank holdings that were retired during the first five months of 1947, District deposits would de cline relatively more than those for the country as a wThole. This point is discussed more fully in the article on ownership of demand deposits. More important as an explanation for the greater District decline, however, are seasonal influences. Compared to national deposits, Twelfth District deposits tend (except time deposits) to increase less (or decrease more) in the first half of the year than in the second half. The contrast between the behavior of deposits in the first and second half of the year, in the United States compared to the Twelfth Dis trict, is shown in the following percentages of increase or decrease in deposits for 1945 and 1946. Total f------deposits------>> U . S. Twelfth Total District Period Demand deposits of individuals, Total demand partnerships, and t ------ deposits------ ^ t —corporations— U . S. Twelfth U . S. Twelfth Total District Total District 1945 Tanuary-June July-December -f- 6.8 -f- 9.5 -f- 5.1 —f—16.4 -f- 5.5 4 " 9.1 -f- 1.0 -\-\9.6 -f- 2.0 4 " 9.8 0 + 1 7 .6 1946 January-June July-December — 5.6 — 4.5 — 3.5 -f- 0.6 — 8.6 — 5.6 — — + 4.1 4 “ 5.3 + 7.8 1.9 0 7.5 Interbank demand deposits experienced the greatest decline both in the District, where they dropped 18 per cent, and in the United States, where they dropped 11 percent. These declines are a consequence of the narrow excess reserve position of the banking system. Many banks have drawn upon their interbank balances to main tain required reserves in the face of increased loans and war loan account withdrawals. O W N ER SH IP OF DEM AND DEPOSITS demand deposits of individuals, partnerships, and corporations decreased by 1.3 percent in the Twelfth District from July 1946 to February 1947 com pared with an increase of 0.4 percent for the United States as a whole, according to estimates based on the latest survey of ownership of demand deposits. This is the first decrease that has occurred in the District since these surveys of ownership of demand deposits were started in July 1943. For both the District and the United States, deposits decreased in all ownership categories except two, “ personal” and “ other.” For the District, the decline wras greatest in manufacturing and mining accounts. Almost all of the deposit decline in the District occurred in large banking offices. Ending with February 1947, this survey covers a pe riod of seven months rather than six months as preceding surveys did. February is a month when tax payments usually are large. Demand deposits in the United States showed a larger percentage increase since July 31, 1946, o tal T and in the District a smaller decline, at the end of Janu ary than at the end of February. Presumably, the situa tion with respect to some of the individual deposit cate gories might have been more favorable also if the survey period had ended on January 31,1947. General trend has changed in past year The total amount of District demand deposits of in dividuals, partnerships, and corporations was less in February of this year than in January 1946. Further more, District demand deposits decreased, between July 1946 and February 1947, in all ownership categories ex cept two. A year ago the opposite was true; between July 1945 and January 1946 all ownership categories except one showed an increase in demand deposits. In the follow ing six months (January-July 1946) decreases began to appear in other categories, and in the most recent survey only the “ personal” and “ other” categories continued to show increases. E s t im a t e d D i s t r ib u t io n of O w n e r s h i p of D e m a n d D e p o s it s of I n d i v i d u a l s , P a r t n e r s h i p s , a n d C o r p o r a t io n s , T w e l f t h D is t r ic t a n d U n it e d S t a t e s , o n S elec ted D a t e s 1945-47 (millions of dollars) , ---------------------------------------- Twelfth District---------------- ----------------------- N Type of holder Manufacturing and m ining................................ .................... Retail and wholesale trade................................ .................... Total no n -fin a n cial.................................... .................... Jan. 31, 1945 1,320 1,420 July 31, 1945 1,380 1,430 940 Jan. 31, 19461 1,200 1,740 1,050 3,990 July 31, 1946 1,130 1,660 1,060 Feb. 26, 1947 1,060 1,610 1,010 % change July 31, 1946 to Feb. 26, 1947 — 6.4 — 3.0 — 5.1 t ---------------- United States-----------------\ July 31, 1946 16,400 13,000 8,900 Feb. 26, 1947 16,000 12,500 8,700 % change July 31, 1946 to Feb. 26,1947 — 2.1 — 3.6 — 2.6 3,710 3,750 3,860 3,680 — 4.6 38,300 37,200 — ................................................................. .................... 570 580 700 750 730 — 2.5 6,500 — 0.8 Total domestic business........................... ................... 4,280 4,330 4,690 4,610 4,410 — 4.2 6,600 44,900 43,800 — 2.4 F armers .................................................................... ................... Other personal....................................................... .................... Total personal................................................ ................... 580 2,100 2,680 610 2,260 680 2,950 6,200 21,400 3,630 740 2,940 3,680 -j~ 8.5 — 0.1 2,870 710 2,810 3,520 ~r 1.5 27,600 6,700 22,100 28,900 + Other2 ........................................................................ ................... 320 350 410 410 440 -f 7.1 5,000 5,200 + 3.4 T O T A L 3 .......................................................... ................... 7,270 7,550 8,620 8,640 8,530 — 1.3 77,500 77,800 + 0.4 Financial 1 Revised. 2 Non-profit associations, foreign deposits, and trust funds of banks. 3 Figures will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. 2.7 4 - 8.2 + 3.3 4.4 56 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK Since District demand deposits increased during the calendar year 1946, the decline shown by the February survey occurred in January and February of this year. Probably the major factor in this decline was the fact that in the first two months of 1947 Treasury receipts exceeded Treasury disbursements within the District, thereby drawing down private deposits. This is the first time in many years that this condition has existed, and it has continued through May 1947. During 1946 the Treasury retired public debt by using funds withdrawn from War Loan account. In this case, the redemption of securities held by nonbank investors increases private bank deposits. On the other hand, the redemption of public debt so far in 1947 has been accom plished primarily by the use of the Treasury’s current tax receipts and borrowings. Under these circumstances the retirement of securities held by nonbank investors simply transfers deposits from taxpayers to security holders, with no net shift of Government deposits from War Loan account to private hands. It is possible that the Twelfth District possessed less than its proportionate share of the nonbank holdings that were retired between July 1946 and February 1947. If so, deposits outside of the District would have been affected more favorably by the program of debt retirement than those within the District. This would help to explain why demand deposits in creased slightly in the United States compared with the decline in the District. Seasonal influences were no doubt at work also, but it is difficult to assess their effect. Ordi narily, District deposits show a greater increase in the second half of the year than they do in the first half. It is not clear, however, what the net effect of these sea sonal forces was over the seven-month period August 1946-February 1947 inclusive. OF SAN FRANCISCO June 1947 living wThich occurred between July 1946 and February 1947. Other data indicate, however, that large personal accounts had a greater relative expansion from July 1946 to February 1947 than the smaller ones. The District decline in manufacturing and mining accounts was about two and one-half times as large as that for the country as a whole. The decline in these deposits, and also in those of wholesale and retail trade, was probably largely the result of a growth in inventories and of cash outlays for plant expansion, some of which involved a net shift of funds out of the District. District decline was chiefly in large banking offices Changes in demand deposits between July 1946 and February 1947 varied according to the size of the bank. Virtually all of the decline for the District occurred in the large banking offices, that is, those whose total de mand deposits of individuals, partnerships, and corpora tions were over $100 million at the end of 1945. Those with deposits between $10 and $100 million showed no change in total, wThile the next class, with deposits be tween $1 and $10 million, declined slightly. Deposits in small banking offices (those with deposits under $1 mil lion) increased. The fact that a greater deposit decline occurred in the large banking offices means in effect a greater decline in the larger cities, since larger banking offices are usually located in the larger centers of popula tion. Small accounts most important in "personal" category In February 1947 over 40 percent of the dollar amount of District demand deposits were in the “ personal” cate gory, and most of these personal accounts had balances of less than $10,000. This was the only category in which E s t im a t e d D is t r ib u t io n , b y O w n e r s h i p a n d S iz e of A c c o u n t , Increases occurred in only two ownership categories Between July 1946 and February 1947, the only own ership categories in which deposits increased were “ per sonal” and “ other,” the latter including holdings of non profit associations, foreigners, and trust funds of banks. This was true in both the District and the United States. In the District, a substantial increase in farmers’ de posits more than offset a slight decline in “ other per sonal” accounts, whereas in the United States as a whole both categories increased. For the entire country, the relative gain in total personal deposits was more than three times as large as in the District. The increase in farmers’ deposits, in both the District and the United States, was due partly to seasonal influ ences and partly to the pronounced rise in agricultural income since last July. It is of particular interest that “ other personal” deposits continued to rise in the country as a whole despite the substantial increase in the cost of o f D e m a n d D e p o s its o f I n d iv id u a ls , P a r t n e r s h ip s , a n d C o r p o r a tio n s , T w e l f t h D is tr ic t, F e b ru a ry 1947 (millions of dollars) Balances under Type of holder $10,000 Manufacturing and m in in g ... 135 Retail and wholesale trade 625 Other non-financial ................. 290 Total non-financial.......... 1,050 140 Total domestic bu sin ess.. . 1,190 2,645 115 T O T A L 2 ............................... . 3,950 -----Size of account--------------Balances Balances $ 10 ,000over $25,000 $25,000 Total 95 835 1,060 240 745 1,610 145 575 1,010 480 2,155 3,680 80 510 730 555 2,665 4,410 515 520 3,680 40 285 440 1,115 3,465 8,530 1 Non-profit associations, foreign deposits, and trust funds of banks. 2 Figures will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. accounts under $10,000 were more important than larger ones. Accounts up to $25,000 were significantly large in the retail and wholesale trade category, but in all other ownership groups accounts over $25,000 were the most important single class. Jane, 1947 M O N T H L Y REVIEW 57 National Summary of Business Conditions INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Released June 27, 1947— Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and employment at factories showed further slight declines in May, although employment in the economy as a whole increased seasonally. Value of retail trade in May and the early part of June was at earlier record levels. The general index of wholesale prices advanced slightly after the early part of May, with widely varying changes for individual commodities. O u tp u t I n d u s t r i a l P r o d u c t io n 03 9 194! 1943 1945 1947 !939 1941 1943 ©45 1947 Federal Reserve indexes. Monthly figures, latest shown are for M ay, 1947. WHOLESALE PRICES Production of manufactured goods showed a further slight decline in May, while output of minerals increased considerably, and the Board’s preliminary seasonally ad justed index of industrial production was maintained at the April rate of 186 percent of the 1935-39 average. Activity in durable goods industries in May was somewhat below the April rate, reflecting small decreases in most lines. Steel production increased, however, and was at the highest level since May 1945. Activity at electrical machinery plants declined somewhat further in May, and output of passenger cars and trucks was curtailed about 10 percent, mainly because of a shortage of steel sheets. Automobile production increased in the first three weeks of June but remained below the April rate. Nonferrous metal fabricating activity declined somewhat further in M ay; and output of most building materials continued to show a smaller increase than is usual at this season. Production of nondurable goods, as measured by the Board’s index, continued to decline in May. Output at cotton and most wool textile mills declined further. Cotton consumption in May was about 10 percent below the peak rate reached last November and apparel wool consumption has been reduced by a larger amount. Output at wool carpet and rayon fabric mills, on the other hand, increased in that period. Production of most manufactured food products declined somewhat in May after allowance for usual seasonal changes. Activity in rubber products industries continued to be curtailed. Out put of paperboard, however, rose to a new record rate, wThich was 84 percent above the 1935-39 average. Production of most other nondurable goods showed little change or declined slightly. Output of minerals rose 7 percent in May, reflecting a substantial gain in fuels pro duction to the highest rate on record. Output of coal advanced sharply after declining in April because of work stoppages early in that month, and output of crude petroleum advanced further to a new peak rate. E m ploym ent Bureau of Labor Statistics’ indexes. Weekly figures, latest shown are for week ending June 21, 1947. Manufacturing employment continued to decline somewhat in May, owing mainly to production curtailments in various industries, while employment in most other types of nonagricultural establishments increased somewhat. The number of persons unemployed in May declined to about 2 million from a level of about 2.4 million during the first four m o n th s o f th is y e a r . DEPARTMENT STORE SALES AND STOCKS M O T --------[---------- ^ U U » ^JOMA^rjUWUSTED. 193! 39-100 ---------- ------- PE«|JfT C o n str u c tio n Construction contract awards, according to the F. W . Dodge Corporation, were 12 percent larger in May than in April, owing chiefly to a sharp rise in public awards. Value of awards for commercial and industrial buildings showed little change. Awards for private residential construction declined further in value; the number of dwelling units, however, showed little change, with an increase in apartments and a decrease in single-family dwellings built for sale or rent. D is t r ib u t io n !939 1940 ¡941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 Federal Reserve indexes. Monthly figures: latest shown for sales is M ay, 1947; for stocks, April, 1947. Department store sales increased in May and the Board’s seasonally adjusted index rose from a level of about 275 in March and April to 290 percent of the 1935-39 average, equaling the all-time high reached in August 1946. Sales in the first two weeks of June continued at the high May level. Retail sales at most other types of stores also increased in May and were at about the same levels as those prevailing during the first quarter of the year, after allowance for seasonal changes. Loadings of railroad revenue freight increased in May and the first half of June, reflecting larger shipments of coal and ore. Shipments of manufactured goods, after allowance for seasonal changes, declined somewhat further. C o m m o d i t y P r ic e s The general level of wholesale prices increased slightly from the beginning of May to the third week of June, reflecting chiefly increases in prices of cotton, corn, cattle, and beef. Prices of wheat, flour, and vegetable oils declined further. Crude rubber prices dropped from 25 cents per pound to 14 cents, which is 3 cents lower than the price prevailing at the outbreak of war in 1939. Prices of various other industrial materials showed further declines but some items like hides, coke, and steel scrap increased. Prices of automobile tires and soap were reduced, while prices of most other manufactured goods continued to show little change. LOANS AT MEMBER BANKS IN LEADING CITIES T r e a s u r y F i n a n c e a n d B a n k C r e d it 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 Excludes loans to banks. Wednesday figures, latest shown are for June 18, 1947. During May and the first three weeks of June reserve funds were supplied by a sub stantial gold inflow and by a decline in foreign deposits at reserve banks. As a result member bank reserve balances increased and reserve bank holdings of Government securities declined further. Treasury debt retirement continued in May and June with redemption for cash of a part of certain bill issues and one billion dollars of certificates maturing June 1. Holdings of Government securities at member banks in leading cities declined some what in May and the early part of June. Commercial and industrial loans continued to decline, while real estate and consumer loans increased moderately. 58 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK June 1947 OF SAN FRANCISCO BUSINESS INDEXES—TWELFTH DISTRICT 1935-39 Average = 1001 In d u stria l p ro d u ction (ph ysical v o lu m e ) 2 Lum ber Ad ju s te d 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 U nad ju ste d 148 112 77 46 62 67 83 106 113 88 110 120 140 140 133 138 108 118 1946 April M ay June July August September October November December 111 111 132 107 113 120 122 128 133 1947 January February March April M ay 155 172 143 132 130 114 129 152 120 139 139 133 122 100 106 121 124 135 151 C rude R efined U nad ju ste d U nad ju s te d 121 95 78 74 72 73 99 104 93 93 96 103 118 129 135 131 193 168 140 134 127 123 140 154 163 159 160 158 172 175 194 226 243 219 131 131 132 132 131 131 131 132 133 210 134 136 137 137 138 219 227 255 259 267 W h e a t flour 3 C em en t* Ad ju s te d U nad ju sted Ad ju ste d 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 January February March April M ay M erch an d ise an d m iscella n eo u s T o ta l U nad ju s te d Ad ju ste d 112 222 229 227 221 66 72 85 90 79 85 90 105 113 109 115 103 108 121 10 2 124 118 126 128 109 109 111 12 1 136 134 117 120 112 12 2 112 107 108 111 109 117 112 Ad ju ste d 119 130 131 132 146 150 129 130 131 121 120 122 125 120 122 123 98 97 106 113 109 114 111 123 118 102 112 122 132 136 152 147 136 167 214 231 219 219 120 120 153 150 167 124 136 129 130 133 166 135 132 147 109 136 154 154 146 166 211 210 212 213 222 227 236 237 243 231 227 229 232 240 229 183 185 184 161 163 186 193 174 162 165 173 158 174 162 162 153 179 250 249 252 254 246 244 248 252 D istrict U nad ju s te d Ad ju ste d 112 209 212 216 222 10 1 74 90 89 83 91 80 93 93 96 90 100 99 84 79 124 113 103 108 111 88 98 89 93 96 Pacific N o r th w est U ta h & So. Id ah o Ad ju s te d Ad ju sted Ad ju s te d 109 103 94 72 68 68 77 75 86 100 86 115 106 91 68 66 78 85 93 73 54 53 64 78 96 115 66 79 87 99 112 98 104 101 110 173 270 363 335 246 177 134 224 460 705 694 497 339 122 170 176 179 180 184 184 187 192 192 170 176 179 180 185 185 188 193 193 321 333 341 345 362 360 372 372 387 321 333 342 345 364 361 375 373 194 192 193 192 190 191 191 192 192 190 386 387 390 392 392 379 384 D istrict Ad ju s te d 124 U nad ju s te d 132 125 111 110 97 69 72 82 89 99 104 98 89 80 85 89 97 108 Food U nad ju s te d U nad ju ste d 1 2 1 .8 1 32.0 1 24.8 1 04.0 8 9 .8 118.1 1 08.2 9 8 .8 9 3 .6 9 5 .3 9 7 .0 9 7 .9 8 6 .8 265 263 281 299 313 273 1 4 8 .7 1 5 0 .0 1 5 4 .5 1 7 0 .8 176.1 1 7 9 .7 1 86.2 19 9 .9 1 98.4 277 290 308 304 298 15 6 .7 15 6 .7 15 8 .2 1 5 9 .0 1 5 8 .7 19 5 .7 1 9 3 .5 1 9 6 .6 19 7 .8 1 97.3 109 116 139 169 100 110 244 306 109 117 136 160 192 217 242 304 117 146 189 219 232 252 310 217 237 304 292 305 315 322 324 313 319 319 317 287 284 288 266 291 326 330 376 503 294 300 315 316 311 308 320 325 310 283 317 310 327 333 312 313 307 329 286 277 300 331 364 319 301 289 305 202 2 12 217 217 250 240 249 270 296 334 225 313 330 325 315 323 249 278 295 297 301 307 317 318 314 321 318 352 336 312 332 326 335 314 313 279 315 330 331 308 287 10 1 106 113 137 187 172 177 182 238 2 12 All ite m s 1 3 3 .8 1 3 4 .6 1 3 6 .8 143.1 1 4 5 .7 1 4 7 .7 1 5 0 .6 1 5 6 .2 15 6 .9 100 116 138 174 C o n su m e r s’ prices 6 10 6 .3 1 1 9 .4 126.1 1 2 8 .3 1 3 1 .7 142.1 99 106 110 392 393 9 3 .2 9 9 .6 100! 3 10 4 .5 9 9 .0 9 6 .9 9 7 .6 10 7 .9 1 30.9 14 3 .4 142.1 14 6 .3 16 7 .4 100 20 1 221 U nad ju ste d 111 73 61 100 105 C a lifo rn ia Ad ju s te d 100 86 D e p t, store stock s (value ) 5 C a li forn ia 104 94 71 Unad ju s te d 105 86 79 83 84 U nad ju s te d C aliforn ia Ad ju s te d 83 84 82 73 73 79 85 96 105 168 165 169 169 176 177 169 171 165 109 84 57 37 43 48 56 70 75 65 72 79 91 103 97 97 83 12 1 145 147 140 148 151 134 129 Unad ju s te d 160 158 149 155 158 167 146 171 223 O th er 90 96 99 116 129 128 137 138 125 125 125 134 145 Ad ju s te d D e p a r tm e n t store sales (value ) 2 10 2 11 0 111 Electric power 115 107 159 189 154 124 127 160 219 228 234 U nad ju ste d 110 88 110 121 222 114 105 89 74 70 81 85 97 96 75 57 58 106 108 113 U nad ju s te d Ad ju ste d 107 93 71 46 53 67 64 114 109 C arloadin gs (n u m b e r ) 3 1946 April M ay June July August September October November December Fa ctory p a y ro lls 1 P etroleum * Y e ar an d m o n th Y e ar an d m o n th F actory e m p lo y m e n t 4 221 1 0 2 .2 1 0 2 .0 1 0 1 .0 1 0 1 .1 1 The terms “ adjusted” and “ unadjusted” refer to adjustment of monthly figures for seasonal variation. Excepting department store statistics, all indexes are based upon data from outside sources, as follows: Lumber, various lumber trade associations; Petroleum and Cement, U .S. Bureau of Mines; W heat flour, U .S . Bureau of the Census; Electric power, Federal Power Commission; Factory employment, Factory payrolls, and Consumers’ prices, U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and cooperating state agencies; and Car loadings, various railroads and railroad associations. 2 D aily average. 3 1923-25 daily average=100. 4 Wage earners only. Excludes fish, fruit and vegetable canning. 6 A t retail, end of month or end of year. 6 Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Seattle indexes combined, p-preliminary. r-revised. June, 1947 M O N T H L Y REVIEW 59 BANKING AND CREDIT STATISTICS—TWELFTH DISTRICT (amounts in millions of dollars) C on d ition ite m s o f all m e m b e r b a n k s 1 L o a n s an d d iscou n ts Y ear an d m o n th T o ta l2 1946 M ay June July August September October November December 2,909 3,030 3,184 3,334 3,601 3,794 3,954 4,068 1947 January February March April M ay June 4,140 4,254 4,364 4,479 4,558 4,644 In v e s tm e n ts 2 R eal esta te A ll oth e r 647 721 711 635 2,239 2,218 1,898 1,570 1,486 1,469 1,537 1,682 1,871 1,869 1,967 2,130 2,451 2,170 2,106 2,254 2,663 4,068 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 C o m l., in d . For p u rc h ., & agrie. carry’ g secs. 668 663 664 735 933 870 934 956 1,103 1,882 82 76 65 59 51 62 184 343 195 1,283 246 670 662 68G 730 798 864 931 327 362 399 460 275 1,000 974 899 885 908 1,431 211 228 309 560 411 1,090 1,431 1,882 560 U .S . G o v ’ t secu rities A ll oth e r secu rities 495 467 547 601 720 1,064 1,275 1,334 1,270 1,323 1,450 1,482 1,738 3,630 6,235 8,263 10,450 8,426 458 561 560 528 510 575 5S7 614 498 486 524 590 541 538 557 698 795 908 10,090 9,673 9,651 9,624 9,171 9,157 8,815 8,426 867 861 882 888 900 891 889 908 8,303 8,058 7,909 7,677 7,662 7,425 911 893 894 876 862 868 D em and d eposits a d ju s te d 3»* T im e d e p o sits 4 1,234 1,158 984 840 951 1,776 1,915 1,667 1,515 1,453 1,759 2,006 2,078 2,164 1,201 U .S . G o v ’ t d e p o sits 4 36 49 99 148 233 228 167 96 90 127 118 1.389 1,791 1,740 1,781 1,983 2.390 2,893 4,356 5,998 6,950 8,203 8,821 2,263 2,351 2,417 2,603 3,197 4,127 5,194 5,781 8,339 8,328 8,488 8,566 8,630 8,757 8,801 8,821 5,404 5,494 5,521 5,570 5,609 5,669 5,696 5,781 1,635 1,213 1,125 8,704 8,367 8,327 8,334 8,248 8,285 5,761 5,804 5,820 5,837 5,851 5.899 308 370 396 286 235 118 2,212 68 144 307 842 1,442 2,050 303 1,122 853 808 610 303 M e m b e r b an k reserves an d related i t e m s 5 Y ear and m o n th C oin an d cu rren cy in circu lation Reserve b an k c red it 6 T reasu ry o p era tio n s 6 T o ta l 6 0 6 F .R . n o tes o f F .R .B . o f S .F . — — 53 — 154 — 175 — 110 — 198 — 163 — 227 — 90 — 240 — 192 — 148 — 596 — 1,980 — 3,751 — 3,534 — 3,743 — 1,607 h 23 89 - 154 - 234 - 150 - 257 - 219 - 454 - 157 - 276 + 245 + 420 + 1,000 + 2 ,8 2 6 + 4 ,4 8 6 + 4 ,4 8 3 + 4 ,6 8 2 + 1 ,3 2 9 272 73 15 29 136 37 + + + + + + - 220 — — — 52 42 28 26 162 74 37 — — — — — — — + — — — 2 2 2,866 7 +109 + 14 — 62 — 2 + 34 — 21 — — — — + + 35 25 3 69 96 90 + + - 81 32 30 18 — 34 — 16 + 21 — 42 — 2 — 7 + 2 + 6 — 1 — 3 + 2 + 2 + +107 +214 + 98 — 76 + 9 1946 M ay June July A ugust September October November December — + + + — — + + 1947 January February March April M ay June 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 C o m m e rcia l o p era tio n s 6 4 34 35 11 177 2 55 128 95 20 223 111 62 168 133 50 47 61 138 + + + — + + + — t+ + + + + + + — 16 48 30 18 4 14 38 3 20 31 96 227 643 708 789 545 326 11 0 + — — — — + 9 10 13 189 186 231 227 213 211 280 335 343 361 388 493 700 1,279 1,937 2,699 3,219 2,871 2,984 2,931 2,894 2,890 2,878 2,875 B an k d ebits index 31 cities 8 Reserves 7 T o ta l 175 183 147 142 185 242 287 479 549 565 584 754 930 1,232 1,462 1,706 2,033 2,094 1,955 2,038 2,000 2,871 2,045 2,005 2,040 2,092 2,094 2,800 2,765 2,735 2,716 2,714 2,695 2,081 1,981 2,003 1,997 1,993 1,992 R equired 171 180 154 135 142 172 20 1 Excess — U n ad ju ste d 4 5 4 146 126 97 8 68 37 84 100 351 470 418 459 515 720 1,025 1,343 1,598 1,878 2,051 119 70 142 138 257 245 262 103 104 136 59 1,900 1,929 1,936 1,958 1,987 77 84 63 72 87 10 2 111 98 10 2 110 134 165 211 237 260 298 2,030 2,051 54 55 56 54 59 281 307 291 292 306 310 313 339 2,043 1,982 1,940 1,934 1,934 1,944 60 51 61 63 59 51 322 325 332 309 297 322 2,002 66 1 Annual figures are as of end of year; monthly figures are as of last Wednesday in month or, where applicable, as of call report date. 2 Monthly data for 1946 partly estimated. 3 Demand deposits, excluding interbank and U.S. G ov’t deposits, less cash items in process of collection. 4 Monthly data partly estimated. 5 End of year and end of month figures. 6 Changes only. 7 Total reserves are as of end of year or month. Required and excess: monthly figures are daily averages, annual figures are December daily averages. 8 Debits to total deposit accounts, excluding interbank deposits. 1935-39 daily average=100. ^-preliminary. /—revised.
@FedFRASER