Full text of Economic Review (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco) : July 20, 1931

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MONTHLY REVIEW
OF

BUSINESS CONDITIONS
ISAAC B. NEWTON, Chairman of the Board and Federal Reserve Agent
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Vol. X V

San Francisco, California, July 20,1931

No. 7

S U M M A R Y O F N A T IO N A L C O N D IT IO N S
Prepared by the Federal Reserve Board

Industrial production showed more than the
usual seasonal decline in June, and factory em
ployment and payrolls decreased. W holesale
prices, which had continued to decline until the
end of May, advanced in June, but for most com
modities declined again in the first half of July.
Production,. A decrease in industrial output
from May to June was reflected in a decline in
the Board’s index of industrial production,
which is adjusted for seasonal variations, to 86
per cent of the 1923-1925 output, as compared
with 89 per cent in May. Taking the second
quarter of the year as a whole, production has
averaged about 4 per cent above its low level
in the last three months of 1930. The reduc
tion of activity in June was most marked in the
iron and steel industry, with steel plants oper
ating at 38 per cent of capacity. Automobile
output declined further, and there was some
recession in production of lumber, meat prod
ucts, and flour. Petroleum output, however,
was not reduced. A ctivity of textile mills and
shoe factories continued in relatively large
volume. In the woolen industry, activity was
sustained at the unusually high level of May,
and the decline in the consumption of cotton
was not in excess of the usual seasonal amount.
During the first half of July, there were fur
ther reductions, partly seasonal in nature, in
output of steel, automobiles, and lumber. Fac

tory employment was further reduced by nearly
3 per cent, and payrolls declined by six per
cent between the middle of May and the mid
dle of June. The largest decreases were in the
steel, machinery, and wom en’s clothing indus
tries, while reductions at automobile plants and
cotton mills were partly seasonal in character,
and employment at woolen and hosiery mills
increased. Building contracts awarded in June
were somewhat larger than in May, but de
clined again in the first half of July. Since the
early spring, awards have not increased as
much as is usual for the season. In residential
building there has been relatively little change
for about a year and a half, except for seasonal
fluctuations, the decline in construction having
been chiefly in other types of building, prin
cipally public works and utilities.
Distribution. A t department stores, daily
average sales were seasonally smaller in June
than in May. Freight carloadings were also re
duced, reflecting principally a further reduction
in loadings of miscellaneous commodities.
Prices. During June wholesale prices of
many commodities advanced considerably,
after having reached low levels late in May and
early in June. Prices of livestock and meats
increased, and after June 21 there were rapid
advances in prices of raw materials important
in world markets, especially cotton, hides,
PER CENT

FA C T O R Y E M P LO YM E N T A N D PAYROLLS

Index numbers of industrial production adjusted for seasonal variations (1923-1925 average=100).

Indexes of factory employment and payrolls, without adjustment for
seasonal variations (1923-1925 average=100).

July, 1931

MONTHLY REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS

sugar, silk, copper, silver, and rubber. Subse
quently, however, most of these prices receded
somewhat, although in mid-July they were, in
general, above their lowest levels. The price
of wheat declined during June and the first
half of July as the domestic price became ad
justed to world levels.

early June. Notwithstanding a further addition
of $77,000,000 to the country’s stock of m one
tary gold between the weeks ending June 20
and July 18, there was no decrease in Federal
reserve bank credit outstanding. During the
period the reserve banks’ portfolio of United
States securities was increased by $75,000,000,

B IL L IO N S O F D O L L A R S
0

G O L D
S T O C K
.

M O NEY
"1

C IR C U L A T IO N ^

M EM B E R
K C .it.K V t.

2000

B A N K

-------------------

I
\ j r
.

5 00

M EMBER BANK CREDIT
Monthly averages of weekly figures for reporting member banks in
leading cities. Latest figures are averages of first three
weeks in July.

Bank Credit. A t reporting member banks in
leading cities, loans on securities continued to
decline between the middle of June and the
middle of July, while all other loans increased
by $140,000,000. This increase was concen
trated at New Y ork City banks and was largely
in the form of acceptances purchased in the
open market. Member banks’ investments con
tinued at about the same level as in May and

R E S E R : V
B A N K

C R E D IT

FEDERAL RESERVE BANK CREDIT AND PRINCIPAL
FACTORS IN CH AN GES
Monthly averages of daily figures for twelve Federal Reserve Banks.
Latest figures are averages of first nineteeii days in July.

while their combined holdings of acceptances
and of discounts for member banks decreased
by approximately the same amount. The gold
inflow provided member banks with funds to
meet an added demand for currency, as well
as to increase their balances with the reserve
banks. There was also a considerable growth
in foreign bank deposits with the reserve banks.
M oney rates continued at low levels.

T W E L F T H F E D E R A L R E S E R V E D IS T R IC T C O N D IT IO N S
Business activity in the Twelfth Federal Re
serve District receded during June. Both pro
duction and distribution of commodities were
at lower levels than in May, even after allow
ance for the usual moderation at this time of
the year. Prices of many commodities impor
tant in this District rose temporarily during
the last two or three weeks of June, but aver
ages for the month were considerably lower
than in May. No marked change occurred in
the banking situation during the month.
Rainfall during June brought some relief
from semi-drought conditions which had be
come evident in the Pacific Northwest late in
May, but did not benefit grow ing crops ma
terially. Harvests of most Twelfth District
field and grain crops are expected to be smaller
this year than in 1930. Production of deciduous
fruits is also expected to be smaller than last
year, while the volume of citrus fruits being
harvested is of near-record proportions. The
condition of livestock and livestock ranges,
with the exception of those in Arizona, be
came less satisfactory during June. Ranges
and cattle and sheep in Arizona are in excellent
condition.
Industrial activity, which was relatively

more stable during the first half of 1931 than
in similar months of 1930, declined moderately
during June, follow ing a similar decrease in
May. Reductions in the output of crude and
refined oils, lumber, and copper were reported
in both of those months. Inventories of lum
ber and refined copper rose further during
June. Supplies of crude oil and gasoline, on the
other hand, were reduced to the lowest levels
in two years, reflecting continuation of vigor
ous efforts within the petroleum industry to‘
bring about a better adjustment between the
supply of and demand for products of that in
dustry. The value of contracts awarded for
public construction increased sharply during
June, but commercial and industrial building
activity was smaller in value than at any time
since 1922. Residential building permits in
creased somewhat in value during June. Em
ployment was sustained by seasonal increases
in the canning and preserving industry and in
agricultural work, but there was evidence that
reductions in wage rates continued.
Value of sales at retail declined by more than
the seasonal amount and wholesale sales in
creased less than is customary in June. R egis
trations of new automobiles were well below

July, 1931

FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT SAN FRANCISCO

the levels of May and April, after seasonal
adjustment. Increases in waterborne traffic
from the east coast and in the movement of
lumber and general cargo from the west coast
were more than offset by the sharp decline in
shipments of petroleum from District ports.
Credit extended by the Reserve Bank during
the four weeks ended July 15 averaged some
what larger in amount than in previous months
of this year. There was the usual increase in
currency circulation over the July 4 holiday,
and contraction of circulation has been retarded
since that time. Funds continued to flow from
the District in settlement of adverse trade bal
ances. The funds with which to meet demands
occasioned by these developments and to re
duce borrowings from this Bank over the June
30 call date became available to reporting mem
ber banks through United States Treasury ex
penditures in excess of collections in this D is
trict and a temporary increase in the Reserve
Bank’s holdings of government securities.
Agriculture
W eather conditions in the Twelfth District
were more favorable during June than in May,
particularly in the Pacific Northwest where
near-drought conditions existed at the end of
the earlier month. The rains were of but slight
benefit to crops, however, and on July 1 the
condition of crops was lower than either a year
earlier or the long-time average. Similar con
ditions exist in Utah. Arizona and California
were favored with satisfactory weather condi
tions during June but in the latter state the
cumulative effects of sub-normal rainfall dur
ing the past winter and spring were indicated
in July 1 reports. Unusually hot weather in
most parts of the District caused some damage
to crops in early July. Estimates as of July 1
indicate that the aggregate volume of crop pro
duction in the District as a whole will be less
in 1931 than in 1930. Livestock ranges in all
states west of the Continental Divide, except
Arizona, are furnishing less feed than in early
June and are in poorer condition than in any
July during the past nine years.
G R A IN CROPS—PRODUCTION
(in thousands of bushels)
t------All Wheat------ \
,------ Barley--------\
Forecast
Forecast
July 1,1931
1930
July 1,1931
1930
Arizona ..........................
624
616
630
576
California ........................
5,582
12,432
14,375
38,290
I d a h o ................................
23,982
33,787
5,565
6,342
Nevada ............................
339
334
144
240
Oregon ............................
15,950
23,621
2,640
2,988
Utah ................................
4,376
6,989
1,290
1,720
Washington ....................
41,504
39,493
2,331
2,278
92,357
117,272
26,975
52,434
Twelfth District ............
United States ................ 869,013
850,965
266,618
334,971
Source: United States Department of Agriculture.

Rainfall in the wheat grow ing areas of the
Pacific Northwest during June improved pro
duction prospects for the current spring wheat
crop, but were too late to be of much benefit

to winter wheat. The production of all wheat
in the District is estimated to be 24,915,000
bushels smaller than the 1930 crop, which was
117,272,000 bushels. The California barley crop
is turning out to be about 60 per cent smaller
than a year ago, when 38,290,000 bushels were
harvested. This decline substantiates earlier
estimates of production for the 1931 crop, which
reflected the unfavorable grow ing conditions
during the current season.
FIELD C R O P S -P R O D U C T IO N
(in thousands)
Forecast
July 1,1931
1930
1929
Beans (bu.)
9,464
7,884
California, Idaho ..........
7,918
United States ................
22,137
20,707
22,695
Tame Hay (tons)
Twelfth District ..........
13,244
15,011
14,414
United S ta te s ................
79,107
77,850
100,893
Hops (lbs.)*
California, Oregon,
W ash in g ton................... . .
23,447
23,495
31,383
Potatoes (bu.)
Twelfth District ..........
43,660
50,210
39,096
United S ta te s ................ .. 396,451
343,236
359,048
Rice (bu.)
California ......................
6,222
7,271
United States ................
41,322
40,711
40,462
Sugar Beets (tons)
California, Idaho, Utah.
1,767
1,602
1,637
United States ................
7,566
9,201
7,318
* California, Oregon, Washington produce all the hops grown in
the United States.
Source: United States Department of Agriculture.

July 1 production estimates of the principal
field crops in the District (beans, sugar beets,
rice, hay, hops, and potatoes) indicate a gener
ally smaller output than in 1930 because of
poorer yields of most of these crops. Estimates
of cotton production are not yet available, but
the acreages in Arizona and California are 17
per cent and 25 per cent less, respectively, than
a year ago.
Except for the production of apples, prunes,
and grapes, it is expected that deciduous fruit
and nut crops in California, Idaho, Oregon,
DECIDUOUS FRUITS AN D NUTS— PRODUCTION
(In thousands)
Forecast
1930
1929
Unit July 1, 1931
California
6,522
4,413
5,940
Apples* ..............
200
215
257
Apricots ..............
18
17
24
Cherries ..............
2,182
1,827
l,522t
1,308
1,098
887t
Raisin ..............
240f
388
312
486
417
W i n e ................
395t
796
320
727
Peaches ..............
542
179
516
Clingstone . . . .
211
254
141
F reeston e ........
227
272
190
82
73
40
267
208
103
14
15
5
Almonds ..............
36
30
39
Walnuts ..............
Oregon
3,627
4,800
2,250
Apples* ..............
2,170
3,200
2,356
25
20
Prunes $ ..............
57
Washington
25,560
Apples* ..............
34,065
24,900
3,600
4,500
2,800
Idaho
4,440
Apples* ..............
4,500
4,950
United States
Apples* ..............
115,089
101,169
87,012
24,406
27,577
20,903
Peaches ..............
77,963
53,286
45,789
* Commercial crop. $Dried prunes Oregon and Washington.
fEstimated as of July 13, 1931.

Source: United States Department of Agriculture.

MONTHLY REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS

and W ashington will approximate those of
last year. The production of apples (com m er
cial crop) in the Pacific Northwest was esti
mated on July 1 to be 33,627,000 bushels, a 22
per cent decline from 1930. In California, the
1931 prune crop is forecasted to be 22 per cent
smaller in volume than the record crop of 1930.
In a special report issued as of July 13, grape
production was placed at 1,522,000 tons, com
pared with 1,742,000 tons on July 1, and with a
1930 crop of 2,182,000 tons. The decline in esti
mated production during the first half of July
was due principally to unusually hot weather.
The mid-July forecast is 13 per cent lower than
the actual harvest in 1930, and is smaller than
any crop produced since 1924.
During June there was a slight decline in
the estimate of the 1931 Valencia orange crop
in California, which, on July 1, was estimated
to be 17,755,600 boxes. Orange shipments from
California during June (5,484 carloads) were
about the same as in the preceding month. The
movement of Florida oranges ceased during
June and some increase in California orange
prices occurred toward the end of that month.
These increases were not sufficient to offset
earlier declines, however, and the monthly
average price of oranges, f.o.b. California, de
clined from $2.34 a box in May to $2.12 a box in
June. H ot weather over the entire United
States stimulated shipments of lemons during
June. The movement of 2,905 carloads of
lemons during June was greater than that of
any month of record. Prices at which the fruit
sold averaged $4.46 a box, f.o.b. California, com
pared with an average price of $3.08 per box for
the 2,083 carloads shipped in May.
CONDITION OF LIVESTOCK AND RANGES
(Per cent of normal)
,----- Ranges -----v
Sheep ------ >
Cattle
July, June, July, July, June, July, July, June, July,
1931 1931 1930 1931 1931 1930 1931 1931 1930
90
90
90
90
Arizona . . . . . . 90
90
90
92
90
59
78
81
90
80
83
90
California .. .. 58
77
97
91
93
97
Idaho .......... . 85
88
97
92
95
86
92 101
Nevada . . . . . . 68
75 100
93
99
85
92
Oregon . . . . , 81
81
91
87
87
86
92 101
87
Utah .......... . . 74
82
90
93
88
96
89
96
87
89
Washington .. 89
89
91
91
92
90
93
Source: United States Department of Agriculture.

On July 1, ranges were furnishing less feed
than a month earlier and their condition was
reported to be poorer in all states of the Dis
trict, except Arizona, than in any July during
the past nine years, the entire period during
which records have been kept. Arizona ranges
are in good condition. In California the condi
tion of livestock has become steadily less satis
factory since March, but in other states of the
District this tendency was reported for the first
time this year on July 1.
There was little change in the market for
dairy and poultry products in the District dur
ing June. Butter receipts at Pacific Coast cities
during the current year to July 1 were 41,526,504 pounds, compared with 38,290,550 pounds

July, 1931

during the first half of 1930, and storage hold
ings have not increased as rapidly during 1931
as last year, indicating that the low level of
prices this year has encouraged consumption
of butter. On July 1, 1931, the volume of butter
in storage was 35 per cent less than on the same
date of the previous year. E gg receipts, which
usually increase during the spring and early
summer months, have declined since March and
storage holdings on July 1 were 13 per cent
smaller than a year ago.
Industry
Industrial activity was more nearly stable
during the first half of 1931 than a year ago,
although it remained at levels about 25 per cent
below the average of the first six months of
1930. Considering the half-year period as a
whole, the volume of production tended to de
cline slightly, most of the more important in
dustries in the District, including petroleum
producing and refining, mining, lumbering, and
building and construction participating in this
gradual decline. During June there was some
further recession in the output of crude and re
fined oils, lumber, and copper. Canning and
preserving of fruits and vegetables increased as
is usual at this season, but apparently by a
smaller amount than in other recent years due
more to curtailment of output because of low
prices than to shortages of farm products for
canning. W hile employment improved some
what during June because of increased con
struction and agricultural activity, the number
employed remained well below the levels of a
year ago.
Output of petroleum in California declined
steadily throughout June, reflecting vigorous
efforts of producers to limit production. De-

Employment—
Cal ifornia---- —•> f
— OregonNo. of
No. of
No. -—Employees —\ No.
■— Employees •—»
of June,
June,
of
June,
June,
Industries
Firms 1931
1930 Firms
1931
1930
All Industries* . . . . 1,143 152,232 185,881 134
21,630
23,817
(-18.1)
(-9
.2)
Stone, Clay and
Glass Products. 54
6,068
7,217
4
136
122
(11.5)
( — 15.9)
Lumber and W ood
Manufactures .. 147 19,505 24,710
50
11,786
13,936
(■—21.1)
(-—15.4)
2,170
17
2,033
8
1,005
1,234
(—
6.3)
( — 18.6)
Clothing, Millinery
and Laundering. 139 11,440 12,244
371
8$
388
(— 6.6)
(— 4.4)
Food, Beverages,
and Tobacco . .. 270 33,868 40,978
35
3,518
2,410
(46.0)
(■— 17.4)
Public Utilities .. 39 53,817 59,685
(— 9.8)
Other Industriesf. 463 70,491 88,449
( — 20.3)
Miscellaneous . . . 53
8,827 10,113
29
4,814
5,727
( — 12.7)
(■— 15.9)
Wholesale and
148 37,225 40,414
(— 7.9)
*Public utilities and wholesale and retail figures not included in
this total. ^Laundering only, flncludes the following indus
tries : metals, machinery and conveyances; leather and rubber
good s; oils and paints; printing and paper goods.

Figures in parentheses indicate percentage change from June,
1930.

July, 1931

FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT SAN FRANCISCO

spite increases in the potential production be
cause of new wells in the Kettleman Hills,
Santa Barbara County, and Huntington Beach
fields, daily average output of crude oil was re
duced by approximately 20,000 barrels during
the month. Output increased during July, how
ever, almost entirely due to larger production
at Kettleman Hills. Production of refined oils
declined during June. Partly as a result of the
decline in output of crude and refined oils, in
ventories held by California refineries were re
duced substantially and at the end of June
stocks of both gasoline and crude oil were lower
than at any time since the middle of 1929.
A ctivity in the District’s mining industries
declined throughout the first six months of
1931, and during May and June several copper
and lead mines ceased producing entirely. In
recent months development work at copper
mines, which had been relatively active early
in the year, has been restricted. Despite declin
ing production, stocks of refined copper in
creased sharply during the second quarter of
this year and the price fell to record low levels.
Output of both copper and lead declined during
June and was smaller than at any time since
1922. Output of silver was less during June
than in any month in the post-war period.
The value of building and construction was
unusually small during the first half of 1931,
even after including the large contract for the
H oover Dam. Contract awards in June, exclu
sive of those for commercial and industrial
building, more than doubled in value, however,
as compared with the small total for May. Sub
stantial increases occurred in contracts let for
waterworks, sewers, streets and roads, public
and Federal government buildings, and un
classified projects, but awards for industrial and
commercial buildings were the lowest in value

Industry—
Indexes of daily average production, adjusted for seasonal variations
(1923-1925 daily average*» 100)
,---------------1931----------------- v ------1930;— >
Six
Six
Months
Months
AverAverage
General :
a*e June May April June
84
97
63
68
Carloadings— Industrial . 66
61
168
162
158
153
Electric Power Production 156*
Manufactures :
90
101
65
65
Lumber ............................ 62
61
150
180
171
145
Refined Mineral O ilst-.. 141*
109
124
98
94
110
Flour ................................ 103
77
92
81
97
88
Slaughter of Livestock.. 86
72
83
92
89
74
Cement ............................ 80
59
56
78
67
W ool Consumptionf . . . .
64*
Minerals:
80
79
81
91
98
Petroleum ( California) t- 80
91
Copper (United States)$ 70
67
68
70
85
78
71
99
103
Lead (United S ta te s)î.. 79*
54
Silver (United S ta te s )î.. 59*
47
81"
88
Building and Construction§
57
77
62
Total ................................ 68
75
61
Value of Building Permits
Twenty Larger Cities. 36
50
29
31
33
46
Seventy Smaller Cities 44
40
43
43
69
62
Value of Engineering
Contracts Awarded
Total ........................ 121
89
157
120
144
109
Excluding Buildings. 208
159
273
286
100
110
fN ot adjusted for seasonal variations. ^Prepared by Federal Reserve Board. § Indexes are for three months ending with the
month indicated. *Five months average.

for any month since these figures became
available in 1922, totaling only $680,000 for the
month. Building permits for the District de
clined in value slightly during June as com
pared with May, chiefly because of decreases in
Seattle and San Francisco. A sharp increase in
the value of permits issued in Los Angeles
partly offset these declines. In other cities of
the District increases over May nearly compen
sated for decreases in the value of permits
issued. For both the six-month period and for
June, the total value of construction was sub
stantially smaller than a year ago.
Output of lumber, after allowance for sea
sonal changes, remained fairly constant during
the first six months of 1931, but at levels only
slightly higher than those prevailing at the
bottom of the depression in 1921. During June
there was some further recession in production.
Shipments declined by a greater amount than
did production, however, and inventories in
creased. Shutdowns of somewhat more than
the customary duration over the holiday period
are reported to have taken place during the first
part of July.
Output of flour mills declined by more than
the usual amount throughout the first five
months of 1931, but increased sharply in June.
Millers’ stocks of flour which have been declin
ing almost continuously since the end of 1929,
now approximate those held in 1921. Domestic
demand has been reported for the half-year as
being only fair, and because of the lower level
of world prices with relation to domestic prices,
foreign buying from Twelfth District mills has
been almost negligible.
The total pack of canned cherries in Cali
fornia, Oregon, and W ashington was 315,265
cases as compared with 1,082,930 cases in 1930
and a five-year average of 768,825 cases. This
is the smallest pack since 1920 when composite
figures for these states first became available.
The pack of canned asparagus in California
was reduced this year as a result of voluntary
curtailment among producers. The 1,747,499
cases packed compares with 2,663,191 in 1930
and a five-year average of 2,322,185. Likewise,
canned tuna packers in southern California
have curtailed their output during the first half
of this year as compared with the first six
months of 1930. The curtailment reflects mar
keting difficulties and was accomplished by
means of a voluntary agreement not to operate
the fishing boats during May and June, months
in which the catch is normally rather light.
Trade
Since the first of this year the distribution
and consumption of commodities has been sub
stantially smaller in value than in the corre
sponding period of 1930. The downward move
ment in most indexes of trade has, however,
been at a somewhat slower rate than last year.

July, 1931

MONTHLY REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS

A fter allowance for differences in the num
ber of trading days and for seasonal changes,
department store sales were smaller in value
during June than in any of the preceding five
months of this year. Inasmuch as inventories
of these stores declined proportionately more
than sales, the turnover of stock was somewhat
more rapid during the first half of this year
than during 1930. Since January, cash and
C. O. D. sales of department stores have con
stituted a larger proportion of total sales than
was the case a year ago.
Sales at wholesale declined from May to
June contrary to the usual seasonal movement

between those months and were 17 per cent
smaller in value than in June, 1930. A consid
erable part of the decline over the year period
may be attributed to reductions in prices. In
relation to last year, some improvement was
shown in the wholesale furniture trade during
June, in which line sales have been severely
curtailed for many months.
Like other phases of trade activity, inter
coastal traffic through the Panama Canal de
clined more than seasonally during June. Totals
for the quarter ending with June, however,
were somewhat larger than in the three-month
period ending with May. Shipments of lumber
from the west coast, which during most of 1930
and 1931 have been smaller in amount than in
preceding years, increased 16 per cent during
June, 1931, as compared with the same month
a year earlier and were larger than in May,
1931. Because of the distance between the
Canal and the North Pacific ports, a large part
of this lumber movement through the Canal
corresponds with the Pacific Northwest lum
ber mill “ shipments” reported for the last three
weeks in May. Eastbound tonnage of articles
other than lumber and petroleum was also 18
per cent higher than in June of last year. The
increases from May to June in lumber and
general cargo loadings, however, were more
than offset by the decline in shipments of petro
leum. After adjustment for the usual seasonal
decrease, intercoastal shipments from the A t
lantic coast were 7 per cent higher than in May.
During the first five months of this year, the
value of foreign trade through Pacific Coast

Distribution and Trade —

Bank Debits* —

,------------------1931----------------- x ,------ 1930------ >
Six
Six
Months
Months
April June Average
Average June May
Carloadingsi
/
103
96
80
77
80
Total ...................... . 80
Merchandise and
110
105
91
93
94
Miscellaneous . . . 93

Arizona
Phoenix ............ .$
California
Bakersfield ........
Berkeley ...........

Department store sales, adjusted for seasonal
variation, were better around Easter than in
earlier or later months. Freight carloadings of
merchandise and miscellaneous commodities,
after allowance for seasonal tendencies, changed
little during the first half of the year, whereas
they had declined irregularly during 1930, drop
ping precipitately at the end of the year. R egis
trations of new automobiles increased m od
erately during March, April, and May, but
declined considerably during June.
RETAIL TR AD E —Twelfth District
,--------- NET SALES*--------- v
Jan. 1 to
June, 1931
June 30,1931
compared
compared with
with
Jan. 1 to
June, 1930
June 30,1930
Department S toresf.— 5.6 ( 68)
— 9.0 ( 66)
— 12.2 ( 27)
Apparel S t o r e s ........ — 9.0 ( 28)
Furniture Stores . . .— 16.6 ( 42)
— 14.4 ( 41)
All Stores ................ — 7.3 (138)
— 9.9 (134)

STOCKS*
June, 1931
compared
with
June, 1930
— 12.4 ( 52)
— 21.1 ( 18)
— 13.2 ( 31)
— 13.1 (101)

* Percentage increase or decrease (— ). Figures in parentheses in
dicate number of stores reporting, flncludes dry goods stores.

Foreign Trade®
T otalf .................... . S2ÏÏ
I m p o r t s f................ . 73 TÎ
Exports ................ . 861Ï
Intercoastal Trade®
Total ...................... . 76
W e stb o u n d ............ , 89
Eastbound ............ , 72
Retail Trade
Automobile Salest
Total .................. . 75
Passenger Cars . . 70
Commercial
Vehicles ........ . 123
Department Store
Salesi ................ . 107
Stocks§ .............. . 92

78
67
82

82
77
830

112
109
113

119
107
124

70
89
64

68
86
63

71
86
67

81
113
72

89
117
82

71
66

76
72

76
71

93
89

105
101

Nevada

117

113

127

138

1470

105
94

106
93

107
89

115
106

118
1050

Oregon
Eugene ............
Portland ..........
Utah

r
Stock Turnover||
Collections#
R e g u la r ..........
Installment . . .

.25
43.3
15.5

.25
42.9
15.8

.25
44.0
15.7

.26
43.7
16.0

.22
43.0
14.7

*
.24
43.8
15.2

^Adjusted for seasonal variations, 1923-1925 average=100. “ In
dexes are for three months ending with month indicated.
fExcluding raw silk. $Daily average. §At end of month.
||Proportion of average stocks sold during month. # P e r cent
of collections during month to amount outstanding at first of
month. ¿Five months average. 0Re vised.

Long Beach
Los Angeles
Oakland ..........
Pasadena ..........
Sacramento
San Bernardino.
San Diego .......
San Francisco.. .
San J o s e ...........
Santa Barbara..
Stockton .........
Idaho

Salt Lake City.
Washington
Bellingham . ..
Everett ............
Spokane ..........
Tacoma ..........
Yakima ..........

June,
1931
30,398

June,
1930
35,714

<— First Six Months — \
1931
1930
$ 195,126 $ 240,472

8,930
17,676
20,677
39,950
765,450
182,013
29,430
45,431
8,802
44,750
956,351
22,396
12,015
17,982

12,456
18,171
24,656
47,108
1,025,108
193,494
35,470
47,787
10,052
54,867
1,294,157
25,418
15,686
26,268

66,705
100,249
130,912
259,172
5,054,541
1,142,836
193,844
276,430
53,329
297,229
6,110,834
141,258
79,683
105,615

80,570
120,129
222,042
296,460
6,363,569
1,172,160
221,658
289,511
65,405
348,517
7,829,854
162,195
93,660
151,821

14,799

15,372

76,033

83,342

11,246

12,516

58,921

67,159

6,285
146,905

7,857
178,751

33,681
875,851

42,083
1,065,860

14,238
58,600

16,934
73,382

84,812
365,944

101,338
453,147

6,739
9,656
220,825
43,951
35,307
11,804

9,346
12,863
249,052
57,872
48,703
13,339

41,190
56,217
1,207,418
251,826
206,959
74,051

56,324
79,646
1,468,036
322,329
277,429
84,340

T otal.......... .$2,782,606
*In thousands of dollars.

$3,562,399 $17,540,666 $21,759,056

July, 1931

FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT SAN FRANCISCO

customs districts was more than 30 per cent
below that of 1930. Exports during May, the
latest month for which data are available, were
lower than in any month since April, 1925.
Total imports during M ay declined 31 per cent
as compared with a year ago. Receipts of silk,
which are far greater in value than imports of
any other individual com m odity at Pacific
Coast ports, were more than 100 per cent
greater in quantity and 2 per cent higher in
value than in May, 1930, due to increased im
ports at Seattle and Los Angeles. The quantity
of coffee imported into the District was 19 per
cent larger than a year ago, but was 9 per cent
less in value. Imports of rubber at Los A n
geles declined 60 per cent in value as compared
with a year ago and were 24 per cent smaller in
volume. The excess of exports over imports
noted during the past few years has continued
during 1931, amounting to over 45 million dol
lars for the first five months of the year.
Prices
A slight firming of com m odity prices during
the second and third weeks of June was fol
lowed by rather widespread increases during
the last week of that month, subsequent to an
nouncement of the proposal for a year’s mora
torium on intergovernmental debts. The up
turn was most pronounced among commodities
marketed on organized exchanges. Early in
July, however, prices for these commodities de
clined by as much on the average as they had
risen in June. The wholesale com m odity price
index of the Bureau of Labor Statistics declined
1.3 points during June to 70.0 (1926=100), a
figure practically as low as the 1913 average of
69.8. Prices for cotton, w ool, sugar, silk, and
rubber were slightly higher in mid-July than
in the first two weeks of June.
Follow ing a slight improvement in wheat
prices during late June, quotations again de
clined in early July and on July 15 the Septem
ber contract reached a low of 5 1 ^ cents per
bushel at the Chicago market. Prospects for
another large wheat crop, the present heavy
carryover, and lack of export demand have all
been important factors contributing to the de
cline in wheat prices. Other grain prices have
moved downward during July in sympathy
with the falling quotations on wheat.
Cattle and hog prices at Pacific Coast mar
kets advanced during June by amounts equiva
lent to the declines experienced in May. Lamb
prices, which declined during June to the lowest
point of the year, are currently at about the
same level as in October, 1930, when the heavy
autumn movement of lambs to market was
underway.
Prices at eastern auction markets for Pacific
Coast deciduous fruits were maintained during
late June and early July at levels approximat-

ing those of a month earlier. California orange
prices decreased slightly. Prices for lemons
increased despite heavy shipments, reflecting
an active demand which arose concurrently
with hot weather in most parts of the United
States. Fruits for canning in California are
returning less to the grower than in 1930.
The delivered price of copper increased from
8-8^4 cents per pound in early June to 9 cents
per pound late in that month. Declines fol
lowed during July, however, and quotations fell
to their earlier range of 8-8J4 cents— in fact,
certain custom smelters offered the metal at
7¿4 cents per pound, but there were few sales
at that level. Lead, zinc, and silver were quoted
at slightly higher prices on July 20 than in
mid-June.
Lumber prices, as shown by the average of
several quotations, declined from May to June.
M onth-to-month declines in these quotations
have been reported continually since February,
1930.
On June 19 the tankwagon price of gasoline
was advanced from 8 to 13 cents per gallon in
Los Angeles and from 8 to 13^2 cents per gal
lon in San Francisco. Similar price increases
occurred in the Pacific Northwest. Correspond
ing changes were made in the retail sales price
of gasoline. Prices of crude oil in' California
have remained unchanged since June 19, when
quotations on light crudes were advanced from
the low level established on March 31.
Credit Situation
Reserve Bank credit extended in the Twelfth
District averaged higher during the four weeks
ended July 15 than during any period of simi
lar length since the first of the year. Continu
ing the 25-million dollar level established for
the first half of June, discounts varied from
that amount to more than 30 million dollars
during the subsequent four weeks, except for
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO
(in millions of dollars)
r

Total Bills and S ecu rities........
Bills D iscoun ted......................
Bills B o u g h t ............................
United States Securities . . . .
Total Deposits ............................
Total Reserves ............................
Federal Reserve Note Circulation
Ratio Total Reserves to Deposit
and Note Liabilities Combined

July 15,
1931
82
24
6
52
193
304
176
82.5

July 8,
1931
86
27
8
51
193
306
181
81.8

tion ——
June 17, July 16,
1931
1930
79
60
22
8
8
16
49
36
184
182
298
289
169
160
82.1

87.0

a period of seven days over the month-end
call date period. During that week, however,
the total volume of Reserve Bank credit re
mained constant as a result of local purchases
of government securities by the Federal R e
serve Bank of San Francisco which offset the
decline in borrowings. Acceptance holdings
of the Reserve Bank remained small.

MONTHLY REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS

A ll classes of loans and investments of re
porting member banks declined during the four
weeks from June 17 to July 15, the principal
reduction being a 22-million dollar decrease in
loans on securities. A small increase in de
mand deposits offset an equivalent decline in
time deposits, the total remaining unchanged.
REPORTING M EMBER BANKS — Twelfth District
(In millions of dollars)

Loans and Investments— T ota l..
Loans— T o t a l ............................
On Securities ......................
All O t h e r ..............................
Investments— Total ................
United States Securities . . .
Other Securities ..................
Reserve with Reserve Bank. . ..
Net Demand Deposits..............
Time Deposits ..........................
Due from Banks ........................
Due to Banks ..............................
Borrowings at Reserve B a n k ...

July 15,
1931
1,948
1,201
317
884
747
392
355
107
741
1,050
203
251
18

" "■'I
July 8. June 17, July 16,
1930
1931
1931
1,964
1,955 - 1,986
1,337
1,207
1,223
445
322
333
892
890
885
627
748
763
401
390
341
362
286
358
105
107
109
733
771
727
1,005
1,053
1,057
195
186
227
244
298
248
20
15
0

A s in the remainder of the United States,
there was the usual increase in circulation of
money over the July 4 week-end. This expan
sion in currency circulation (12 million dollars
in the Tw elfth District) was accompanied by
continued losses of funds through an adverse
balance of trade with other districts. The
normal contraction of circulation during the
tw o mid-weeks of July has not yet occurred.
Needs of member banks for additional funds
to meet currency demands and for transfer to
other districts were met by discounting or by
selling government securities and through an
excess of United States Treasury expenditures
over collections in the Twelfth District. A p
proximately $5,800,000 of gold from Australia
and China were purchased by the San Fran
cisco Mint during June. Since these deposits
were principally for the account of eastern
banks, however, they did not serve to enlarge
this D istrict’s banking funds. The usual pur
chases by the Mint of locally produced gold,

July, 1931

while smaller than imports during the past
month, increased deposits in District banks.
The total value o f gold produced in the
Twelfth Federal Reserve District since gold
was discovered in California in 1848 has
amounted to more than 3,150 million dollars.
Before the heavy influx of gold into this coun
try from Europe, which began soon after the
commencement of the W orld W ar, the cumu
lated output of this area had exceeded the
monetary gold stock of the United States. The
chart below shows that when District produc
tion is cumulated from the amount of gold
stocks of the country in 1873 (somewhat more
than 100 million dollars), there is a marked
similarity in the trends of the two curves.
This District has for many years been an ex
porter of gold in payment for commodities re
ceived from other districts; in fact, gold is still
exchanged for credit outside this area, since the
current annual production is considerably in
excess of the growth of the combined gold re
serves of the Federal Reserve Bank of San
Francisco and of banking institutions in this
District which hold their reserves outside the
Federal Reserve Bank.
Since the beginning of the W orld W ar, large
imports of gold from abroad have helped main
tain the past rate of growth of the American
stock of the metal, notwithstanding a slow ing
up in the rate of increase in the cumulated total
of gold mined in this area. During 1930 and
1931 large shipments have been imported from
Japan, China, Australia, and other Pacific basin
countries through San Francisco and Seattle.
These have amounted to $222,000,000 and have
nearly all been for the account of eastern finan
cial houses. This gold, although actually pur
chased by the San Francisco Mint, neither re
mained on deposit here nor created excess re
serves for local banks, for the proceeds of its
sale were transferred to the institutions for
whose account it was imported.

4 0 0 0
3000

3 0 0 0
T O T A L

20oo —

P R O D U C T IO N - T W I:l f t h

C O L ,D

C U M U LA T ED

FROM

d j s t r ic t

2000

184 8

^ ^ - x g o ld
M O N ET A RY
U N IIT E D

G O LD

P R O D U C T IO N

C U M U LA T ED

ST O C K

FROM

S T A T E S ^

S IN C E

T H E

M O NETARY

l£ > 7 3 — T W E L F T H

A M O U IN T

C O LD

S I 'O C K

O r
IN

U N IT E D

D I S T R I C T ___
ST A T E S

1000

1873
700

3 0 0

500
4 00

200

IOOE

300

200

h380

i
\

IS 9 0

1900

1910

J 9 .2 0

1930

GOLD PRODUCTION IN T H E T W E LFTH DISTRICT IN RELATION TO M O N E TA R Y GOLD STOCK OF TH E UNITED STATES

Full text of Economic Review (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco) : July 20, 1931

FRASER