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July 1959
Re • w of Business Conditions . . . . . 90
Review of Business Conditions
by record levels of demand, national
output continued to expand through June.
Industrial production broke through to new
high ground, and the Federal Reserve Board's
seasonally adjusted index of industrial production rose to 155 percent of the 1947-49
average. This gain in industrial production
apparently depended relatively less than did
previous rises on primary metals activity,
since raw steel output drifted down slightly
from the May level. Nevertheless, further industrial gains will depend to a large degree on
the extent of the anticipated slowdown in the
metals industries; and, whatever the outcome
of contract negotiations, most observers foresee a reduced rate of national economic advance during the summer months.
Although stockpiling activities have received considerable publicity, the pace of
manufacturers' and traders' sales has generally kept stock-sales ratios at moderate levels
(Chart 1 ) . With few exceptions, these ratios
are presently well below the levels reached
last year. Total business inventories are only
1 percent greater than a year ago, while total
manufacturing and trade sales have outdistanced the year-ago level by about 15 percent.
Automobile inventories, at close to one milACED
P
CHART 1
INVENTORY-SALES RATIOS
2.0
1. 5
,)W
W
JS
1957
90
.
J
III
IIJSNJ
1958
IIII
1959
Source: United States D epartment of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics, Industry Survey.
lion units, have given rise to some concern;
but unexpectedly high sales in the first half of
this year have led the automobile industry to
discount fears that end-of-the-year "mopping-up" .operations will cause unusual strain.
· Residential construction activity rose less
than seasonally in June, but total new construction put in place was valued at $5 billion, a record for the month. This recent gain
was concentrated in industrial and other
types of nonresidential structures, with residential building accounting for about onefourth of the total rise. The June increase
pushed total new construction expenditures
during the first half of 1959 to a seasonally
adjusted annual rate of $55 billion, roughly
$6 billion more than was spent during 1958.
Swept along by the expanding level of economic activity, nonfarm employment rose in
May and June to record levels. Unemployment, however, did not fall proportionately
due to the entrance of students into the labor
market. With labor income up over $1.4 billion from May, personal income in June
reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of
$383 billion. Reflecting these gains, and also
the increasingly favorable overall outlook,
consumer spending hit record levels in May
which were maintained through June.
Reported plans for expenditure on plant
and equipment show increased optimism. The
latest Securities and Exchange CommissionDepartment of Commerce survey of investment anticipations indicates that businesses
are planning to invest $32.6 billion in 1959,
compared with actual outlays of $30.5 billion
in 1958.
January-March capital appropriations were
up 37 percent from the first quarter of 19 58
according to the most recent Newsweek-National Industrial Conference Board Quarterly
Survey of Capital Appropriations. Of the industries surveyed, only chemicals failed to
register over-the-year gains. Spending approvals in durable goods industries climbed
July 1959
MONTHLY REVIEW
125 percent above the year-ago figures; in
nondurables more moderate gains were partially offset by the reduction in chemicals, and
the overall figure was about 3 percent higher
than for the first quarter of 1958.
Wholesale farm and farm product prices
(including meat) moved down fairly steadily
through June. With industrials holding firm
at slightly below April and May levels, the
index of all commodities continued to fall to
119.6, down about 0.3 percent from the previous month.
District advance continues
Overall economic activity in the Twelfth
District continued to improve in May and
June, although the general advance was
marked by considerable diversity among individual industries and geographical areas.
Nonfarm employment continued to rise
through May as gains were recorded in most
major industry divisions. The advance was
very nearly checked, however, by a decline in
manufacturing employment. The drop was
largely the result of a sharp movement in the
typically erratic food canning and preserving
industry and of a labor dispute in the rubber
industry. After adjusting for seasonal factors,
employment in these industries declined
10,000 and 3,000, respectively, and contributed to the first decline in a series of manufacturing employment gains which extended
back to Apri11958.
Also contributing to the moderate setback
in manufacturing was the small drop in defense-related employment stemming from
layoffs among major aircraft firms. Although
other defense-related manufacturing employment expanded due to increased hirings in
electrical machinery, ordnance, and instruments firms, these monthly gains were generally moderate compared with those made during the past year. The overall loss was quite
moderate, but it interrupted a year-long trend
which added 55,000 workers to District defense-related plants since May 1958.
The overall decline in defense-related employment may be more significant, though
smaller by far, than that recorded by the food
canning and preserving and rubber manufacturing industries. The rubber dispute has since
been settled, while the beginning of what
promises to be an extremely favorable canning season suggests an early reversal of the
May development in this industry. On the
other hand, no such reversal is in prospect for
aircraft, judging by reports from employers
on needs for new employees in the months
ahead. In Washington, layoffs of unskilled
and semiskilled workers continued to offset
hiring of technicians and specialized nonproduction workers. In California, the outlook
for the next few months is brighter, but contract uncertainties make even a moderately
optimistic forecast tentative.
Employment increases in
non-manufacturing industry
Labor disputes in Washington and Oregon
idled approximately 1,200 workers engaged
in heavy construction and several thousand
additional workers indirectly during May.
Construction employment gains in other District states were not quite offsetting. The moderate recovery in District mining employment
which began in April continued into May.
Some improvement in employment at Utah
copper mines was noted, but most of the mining gains occurred in nonmetallic mining and
quarrying in Utah and California. Government employment rose slightly, and small
gains occurred in trade, finance, transportation, and services.
All District states except Oregon and
Washington reported higher seasonally adjusted employment totals in May than in
April. In the Northwest, expansion was limited by strikes in construction and related industries. Generally favorable weather there
last winter, however, permitted higher than
usual employment so that the customary degree of seasonal expansion did not occur this
91
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO
spring. Correspondingly, unemployment has
dropped less than usual in the Northwest,
bringing a rise in the rate to 5.4 percent of
the labor force in Oregon and to 6.8 percent
in Washington. In contrast, unemployment
continued to decline in California, dropping
to 4.2 percent of the labor force for an overall average of 4. 7 percent for the Pacific
Coast.
92
Lumber markets grow weaker
With further seasonal expansion in sawmill
output and continued slowness in reordering
from eastern building areas, market quotations of Twelfth District lumber declined during most of June. Additionally, at least onethird of the District's plywood mills announced production curtailments in an attempt to hold their prices to current quotations. Following weeks of reported price
shading of as much as $5 from the list price
of $85 per thousand board feet, producers
lowered the list price of ~ inch sanded "index" grade of plywood to $78 to $80 per
thousand in July.
New order receipts slowed down in June,
just as production was getting into full swing.
This has not been unusual in District lumbering regions in recent years. Moreover, the
present price structure has been much improved over the past two years; for example,
the average realization on Douglas fir lumber shipments reached $80.24 per thousand
board feet in May, up almost $5 from March
and the highest level since September 1956.
But end-of-June order backlogs held by fir
producers fell to just 1 percent above last
year, compared with a margin of over 16 percent at the end of both April and May. Industry sources expect prices to firm in July
when annual vacation shutdowns begin, but
orders withheld while the housing bill was
pending are now a question mark. The slowing of residential construction should exercise
a damping effect on lumber markets in the
months ahead.
Developments in meta ls are mixed
The rush to produce steel stockpiles added
800 and 2,300 workers to primary metals and
fabricated metals payrolls, respectively, in
California during May. Twelfth District steel
producers eased operations so that output of
raw steel declined from the May level (Chart
2 ) . The two-week postponement of the strike
CHART2
TWELFTH DISTRICT STEEL PRODUCTION
THOUSANDS OF SHORT TONS
600
.I
I
I
I
I
1\ ,.,
.,' 't \,,
500
\
,'
\\
,,'
'\
\
400
I
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,,,, ,,
'I
"v
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\ J ,.,
V
300
J
M
J
1957
M
I
I
I
I
r'
I
\ I
SNJMMJSN
1958
J
M
M
1959
Source: United States Department of Commerce, Facts for In·
dustry, Iron and Steel Foundries and Steel Ingot Produc tion.
deadline allowed additional orders to be completed, but some individual specialty plants
were shut down for lack of orders even before the final deadline.
With domestic and foreign copper production at record levels, consumers' stocks standing at about three and a half months' current
sales, and the fear of a strike shortage at least
temporarily arrested by the miners' agreement
to continue working past the original strike
deadline, copper prices began to tumble in
mid-June. By the end of the month custom
smelters had made four successive half-cent
reductions, to a level 1.5 cents below the
major producer price of 31.5 cents per pound.
Although annual vacation shutdowns brought
some stability to the uneasy domestic market
in July, this was offset in part by the resump-
July 1959
MONTHLY REVIEW
tion of operations at a strike-closed major refinery in Tacoma, Washington, which added
10,000 tons per month to industry capacity.
On the heels of further reductions by custom
smelters, two major producers dropped their
price to 30 cents, and one announced an output cut of 7 percent. Despite the most recent
price and output reductions, producers' quotations may be further tested by foreign imports.
Aluminum, like copper and steel, has been
setting production records, but, unlike steel,
the gains reflect only a moderate amount of
hedge buying. Inventory buying in the second
quarter has been estimated by the trade at
only 2 to 3 percent of total volume, and apparently this was more in anticipation of
price boosts than strike shortages. Kaiser
Aluminum reactivated another potline at its
Mead, Washington plant in late June, raising
this company's operating rate to about 90 percent of capacity.
Lead buying increased sharply in May,
leading to the highest monthly rise in shipments in several years. A reported reduced
level of sales during June may indicate that
some consumers have attained desired stock
hedges against possible summer strikes. Demand for zinc remained strong through June
as galvanizers prepared for the anticipated
steel strike.
With crude oil production still running below year-ago levels, increasingly favorable
gasoline and fuel oil demand has alleviated
some of the oil industry's more persistent
oversupply problems. Offshore shipments of
heavy fuel oil have picked up sufficiently to
enable total demand to absorb current new
supply and even to run off some excess stocks.
This represents a marked change from last
year, when the heavy oil glut led to a 90
cent reduction in posted prices for heavy
crude. Gasoline sales in the District continue
to exhibit surprising strength, in marked contrast to the rather disappointing gains being
registered nationally. Expanding refined prod
uct demand is gtvmg District producing
activity a welcome fillip. The volume of shutin production has been reduced, and drilling
activity has been advanced to a rate nearly
one-third above that of last year.
Although oil imports have been consistently below the mandatory District limit,
some changes may be in the offing. Pacific
Northwest states doubled their Canadian imports in June (due to a reported price cut by
some Canadian producers), and higher quotas
became effective July 1. If District refiners
take full advantage of the higher quota allocations, some oversupply could result, especially if increased domestic production met
with even a temporary lull in demand.
Prospects for agriculture improve
District farming continues to show mixed
trends. In April, cash receipts from livestock
marketings were up 4 percent from a year
ago, but these gains were offset by the decline since April 1958 of 4.7 percent in receipts from crop marketings. This development, experienced first in March, contrasts
with the first quarter, when returns from crop
marketings bolstered the year-to-year losses
in receipts from marketings of livestock.
An increase in District crop output is expected this year. Although official estimates
of the cotton crop have not yet been released,
the stand is reported to be in excellent condition, and a 20 percent increase in acreage has
been authorized. In addition, an unusually
large increase in production from last year's
short crop is in prospect for deciduous fruit.
All major deciduous fruits except apples and
cherries are expected to be in more plentiful
supply, with a prospective apricot crop twice
as large as a year ago.
Farm labor problems may be intensified
by the record forecast for the District's major
deciduous fruit, cling peaches, and near record
production of other important fruit crops. A
great deal of hand labor is involved in fruit
production and harvesting. In California, the
93
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISC O
costs alone of thinning the crops are reported
to have exceeded similar outlays last year by
several million dollars, and the labor requirements for harvest are even greater.
The 1959-60 canning season started in
June, and a large apricot pack is currently
under way. Although early season canning activity in California was threatened by an incipient labor dispute, the continuation of operations has been assured by the last minute
cancellation of the threatened strike. A new
high in the volume of fruit canned may be
reached this year, as a consequence of the
very large harvests indicated by crop reports
and quite moderate end-of-seasoninventories.
Stocks held at the close of the season in June
of this year were about 3 percent smaller than
a year ago.
94
Retail sales continue to gain
Personal income in the Twelfth District
rose to a seasonally adjusted level of $4.5
billion in April, according to McGraw-Hill
data. This represents an over-the-year gain of
10.6 percent, compared with a 9.1 percent increase for the nation as a whole. The advanced levels of personal income have been
reflected in the increase in District department store sales, which during May were 154
percent of the 1947-49 average and for the
four weeks ending June 27 were 13 percent
above the volume for the corresponding period in 1958. Department store sales of consumer durables showed somewhat mixed
trends. During the four weeks ending June 27,
sales of furniture and bedding and domestic
floor coverings registered consistent advances,
on the basis of year-ago comparisons for individual weeks. Movement of major household appliances showed little change.
Although California new automobile registrations in May were off about 1 percent
from April, they were about 30 percent above
the year-ago volume. Total registrations for
the first five months of 1959 were nearly 40
percent higher than in the same period last
year. The District's general prosperity and a
well accepted crop of new automobiles have
made consumers increasingly willing to incur
debt. Consumer instalment credit held by District commercial banks totaled $2.2 billion at
the end of May, exceeding the year-ago figure
by $177 million. Automobile credit accounted
for 60 percent of the change, compared with
43 percent for the nation. About 59 percent
of the new car instalment credit is for 31
months or over, compared with about 49 percent a year ago.
Credit restraint becomes
more noticeable
Although credit restriction is ultimately a
restraint on nonfinancial sectors of the economy, including industrial, commercial, and
consumer users of credit, it is useful to analyze the process from the point of view of the
lender as well as the borrower. This permits
us to trace the process of credit restriction via
the mechanism of its application and thereby
to see the various steps in the gradual spread
of credit restraint.
With the economy moving to higher
ground, the basic reserve position of the
banking system has fallen short of the amount
required to support the increases in bank
credit granted; and, with the exceptions of a
single week in January and a single week in
February, member banks have been net
debtors of the Federal Reserve Banks. The
level of net borrowed reserves, which varied
within a range of $100 million to just over
$300 million from March through May,
moved up to a level of around $500 million in
the month of June (Chart 3 ) . This reflected
mainly an increase in borrowings from a level
of $600 million in March to about $1 billion
in July, while excess reserves remained almost unchanged, moving from $460 million
to $4 70 million. An added testimonial to the
demand for bank reserves is the manner in
which the rate of interest on Federal funds
(bank loans of excess reserves to each other)
MONTHLY REVIEW
July 1959
CHART3
RESERVE POSITIONS OF MEMBER BANKS
MILLIONS Of' DOLLARS
UN ITED STATES
1200
~
MONTHLY
1000
800
o~-L~~--L-L-~~~~~~~~~
J
J
A
S
0
N
D
J
I'
19~8
UA
M
J
J
1959
Source : Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
has stuck at the new discount rate of 3 ~ percent. Banks active in the Federal funds market report that even at this rate funds are
often scarce or virtually unobtainable; hence
the increase in borrowing from the Reserve
banks.
Banks sell securities in
large volume
In addition to increased borrowings from
the Reserve banks, the securities portfolios of
banks have had to be reduced to accommodate loan expansion. In the four weeks ended
July 1, weekly reporting banks in the nation
divested themselves of $1.23 billion of
United States securities (Table 1). Almost
one-half of the Governments sold were Treasury bills, as the reporting banks disposed of
$592 million of bills during June to reduce
their holdings of these issues by 35 percent
since April 1. The bulk of the remainder of
United States securities was in certificates and
notes--about $250 million of each-while
about $141 million of United States bonds
were sold by reporting banks. Generally, the
shorter the maturity of the security, the
smaller the possible capital loss as interest
rates rise. This relationship has acted to restrict heavy out-of-portfolio sales to the shortand intermediate-term securities. In addition
to their sales of Government issues, reporting
banks in the nation reduced their holdings of
other securities, mainly municipal bonds, by
$105 million during June.
Recent developments in the Twelfth District show how credit policy is introducing
more sobriety in business and consumer
spending plans. For the average bank customer tight money has taken a relatively inconspicuous form: money was more expensive, but it was nearly always available for all
classes of borrowers. While most banks are
continuing to meet the needs of established
customers, credit applications are being reviewed more selectively, and many banks are
no longer aggressively soliciting new borrow-
1
I IE AND OTHER SECURITIES AT WEEKLY
AND THE TWELFTH DISTRICT
D
TABLE
HOLDINGS OF UNITED STATES SE
REPORTING BANKS IN THE
(millions of dollars)
, - - --
--United States------..
Changes in holdings
from previous month
April
May
June
Holdings as of
July 1, 1959P
Total United States securities
Bills
Certificates of
indebtedness
Notes
Bonds
Other securities
27,312
1 ,651
-1,267
520
-738
+211
-1,226
592
5,650
59
-172
-61
-267
-142
-185
-50
1,982
6,368
17,311
9,266
174
-292
--438
-219
-205
242
389
1,055
4,185
1,906
-49
-38
-24
-59
-80
-35
10
-21
-115
-27
7
+
-51
249
+
324
80
251
141
lOS
P P reliminary.
Source : Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
Holdings as of
July 1, 1959P
Twelfth Distrlct
Changes In holdings
from previous month
April
May
June
95
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO
ers. In some instances total loan limits on
branches and upper limits for specific kinds of
loans are being instituted by banks and rates
on business loans are moving upward. The
average bank rate on short-term business
loans made in the first 15 days of June stood
at 5.21 percent, up sharply from an average
rate of 4.97 percent in March of this year.
This advance reflects the rise in the prime rate
(the rate charged to first quality bank borrowers on short-term business loans) to 41h
percent in May. In June over half of the dollar
volume of business loans transacted in the
District carried a rate of 41h percent, where
the majority of such loans were made at 4
percent in March.
sales finance companies. It is customary
around tax-payment dates for business holders of sales finance company paper to allow
it to run off, at which time the finance companies tum to the banks for credit. The advance in bank loans in June was shared in by
all categories of loans. The secondary source
of strength was in "all other loans" which are
predominantly loans for consumer expenditure. A June increase of $383 million in this
group indicated the willingness of consumers
to go into debt to buy automobiles and other
big ticket durable goods. Real estate loans,
which had given an early impetus to the current expansion of bank credit, grew $142 million in June, down slightly from the gain registered in May.
In the District, the pattern of expansion of
loans at the reporting banks during June followed the national pattern, though with some
significant variations (Table 2). Commercial
and industrial loans played a lesser role in the
expansion, falling off to less than one-half of
the May increase and to substantially less
than the April growth. The largest loan increase in the District was in consumer loans
(classified with "all other loans"), which rose
$96 million in June. Real estate loans at Dis-
Bank loans rise at record rates
Turning to the actual expansion of bank
credit, total loans at reporting banks in the
nation rose slightly over $1.5 billion, eclipsing the record expansion of total loans at all
commercial banks in the month of May by
about 25 percent. The major part of this increase took place in business loans, which
rose $993 million in the four weeks ended
July 1. Estimates indicate that about onethird of business borrowings were incurred by
TABLE
2
LOANS AND DEPOSITS
THE UNITED STA
REPORTING BANKS IN
ELFTH DISTRICT
(millions of dollars)
~-----Unite d
July 1, 1959P
Total loans
Commercial and industrial
loans ·
Agricultural loans
Brokers and dealers loans
Other loans for carrying
securities
Real estate loans
All other loans
Demand deposits adjusted
Time Deposits
96
States------..
Changes from previous month
in loans outstanding
April
May
June
58,094
+
331
+
729
+ 1,551
12,378
+31 6
+344
+223
31,998
630
2,155
+
+
35
23
+
+
+
+
+
993
21
44
5,054
326
77
381
3
87
+13 8
+ 21
5
+ 197
+ 11
2
+
+
+
1,358
10,241
12,963
56,391
28,548
13
+ 113
+ 250
+1,915
68
+
7
+
+ 152
+ 279
-1,750
+ 112
53
4,666
2,418
9,754
10,245
2
+
+
+
24
142
383
337
52
0
+ 54
+ 83
-183
+ 112
+
P Preliminary.
Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Federal Reserve Bank. of San Francisco.
,--- - - Twelfth District-------.
Changes from previous month
in loans outstanding
July 1, 1959P
May
June
April
77
+ 76
+ 68
+ 62
+15 2
79
15
4
15
51
+ 96
+ 43
+ 55
July 1959
MONTHLY REVIEW
trict reporting banks increased by another
$50 million during June. It is characteristic of
District banks that they carry a higher proportion of real estate loans than do banks in
other parts of the country because they hold
a higher proportion of time deposits. Table 2
shows that the rate of increase of real estate
loans declined in June over May and April,
as the demand for funds by other types of
borrowers made itself felt.
The inflow of savings to financial institutions has not kept pace with the demand for
mortgage money. The growth in other credit
demands has competed successfully with the
demand for mortgage funds, and the general
increase in interest rates has made further
commitments for mortgages less attractive.
As a reflection of these various market
forces, the discount on Federal Housing Administration and Veterans' Administration
loans in the secondary market has increased.
In the national market, the average price for
FHA 5 ~ percent new home mortgages ( 10
percent down payment and 25 year maturity)
was $97 per $100 on June 1, down nearly
half a point from the May 1 average. While
no national data are yet available, judging
from District reports the discount widened
further in June. Substantially larger discounts
were taken on VA mortgages. The recently
authorized increase in the ceiling interest rates
on VA loans to 5 ~ percent may be expected
to bring the market price on new VA loans
to a level much closer to iliat for FHA mortgages of similar nature.
In an effort to obtain a greater supply of
mortgage funds, savings and loan associations
in some localities in the Twelfth District have
increased their dividend rates. In San Diego
County, the rate paid on such shares was put
up to 4~ percent in July, with Salt Lake City
rates going to 4 percent. Commercial banks
in Washington and Oregon have also raised
the rate paid on savings accounts to 3 percent.
Time deposits at reporting banks in the District have risen at a much faster rate than in
the nation. Table 2 shows that the rate of increase in the District has exceeded that for
reporting banks in the nation in April, May,
and June, although the rate of growth slackened markedly in June. The 258-day Treasury bills issued July 8, auctioned at an average rate of 4. 728 percent, were selling in the
market a week later for about 4.55 percent,
indicating heightened public interest. Such a
yield on a relatively short-term Government
security represents potent competition to savings institutions in the demand for funds.
As demands for funds from other sectors
increase, money rates and bankers' preferences for shorter-term loans may be expected
to intensify the pressure on the mortgage market. Although a large backlog of financing
commitments temporarily insulates residential construction activity, Western builders are
increasingly apprehensive concerning their
prospects for the rest of the year. Western
building depends to a considerable extent on
Eastern capital flowing from investors who
are not restricted to mortgages in their search
for high yields. It must thus compete against
a relatively wide variety of government and
corporate issues for its mortgage money.
Therefore, credit restraint tends to squeeze
this sector rather promptly, and perhaps more
rapidly in the West than elsewhere in the nation. Whether this will restrain speculative
building and moderate the rise in building
costs remains to be seen.
97
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO
The United States Treasury Department and the Federal
Reserve System early last spring initiated a joint inquiry into
the functioning of the Government securities market. The first
of three parts of the study is now available for distribution in
printed form.
Part I of the Study ·consists of two papers. The first summarizes the informal consultations conducted by the TreasuryFederal Reserve study group with individuals associated with
or informed about the functioning of the market. The second
paper is a special technical study concerned with the question
whether an organized exchange might better serve the public
in effectuating the purchase and sale of Government securities.
Part II of the Study will be a factual and analytical report on
the performance of the Government securities market in 1958.
Part III will deal with specialized and technical subjects suggested by the informal consultations and the factual records
of 1958.
The price of each part is $1.00. There is a special price of
$2.50 for the set of three pamptlets, when all are ordered at
one time. The individual parts will be forwarded as they become available.
98
July 1959
MONTHLY REV .I EW
BUSINESS INDEXES- TWELFTH
{1947-49 average
Lumber
1929
1933
1939
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
95
40
71
100
113
113
116
118
116
121
120
107
106
87
52
67
99
98
106
107
109
106
106
105
101
94
103
100
102
109
109
113
114
119
120
118
1958
1959
January
February
March
April
May
116r
114
118
Petroleum•
Refined
Crude
Cement
78
Steel•
. ..
.. .
63
103
103
112
116
122
119
122
129
132
124
54
27
56
100
112
128
124
130
132
145
156
149
158
24
97
125
146
139
158
128
154
163
172
141
93
93
92
93
93
93
93
93
124
123
127
128
129
130
127
124
176
178
179
179
179
186
159
165
92
92
95
92
92
125
126
128
130
128
161
142
171
178
188
50
Copper•
Electric
power
105
17
DISTRICT~
100)
Industrial production (physical volume)•
Year
and
month
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
=
Total
nonagrlcultural
employment
Waterborne
foreign
tradal• 5
Imports
Exports
Total
mrg
employment
Car·
loadings
(number)t
Dep't
store
sales
(value)•
Retail
food
prices
...
...
30
18
31
98
107
112
120
122
122
132
141
141
142
64
42
47
100
100
113
115
113
113
112
114
118
123
190
110
163
85
91
186
171
140
131
164
195
230
174
124
72
95
121
137
157
200
308
260
308
443
575
537
.. .
•••
93
115
116
115
113
103
120
131
130
116
29
26
40
108
119
136
144
161
172
192
210
224
228
60
99
103
112
118
121
120
127
134
138
137
57
97
105
121
130
137
134
143
152
157
154
102
52
77
94
98
100
100
100
96
104
104
96
89
139
14.0
112
132
148
152
168
165
106
101
79
91
119
132
139
129
227
234
232
232
228
238
231
236
136
137
138
138
138
139
140
140
151
153
153
155
155
156
158
159
84
92
94
81
91
97
90
90
142
143
140
148
140
141
149
147
124
124
124
123
123
123
124
123
193
190
180
181
178
174
178
170
468
617
602
513
607
712
545
762
168
187
194
212
22le
136
138
141
144
148
238
242
249
141
141
142
142
142
161
162
163
164
163
98
93
97
94
101
150
155
155
153
154
124
123
123
123
123
237
153
209
168
504
696
652
600
80
. ..
...
...
...
...
BANKING AND CREDIT STATISTICS- TWELFTH DISTRICT
(amounts in million1 of dollars)
Condition Items of all member bankal
Year
and
month
Loan a
and
discounts
1929
1933
1939
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
2,239
1,486
1,967
7,866
8,839
9,220
9,418
11,124
12,613
13,178
13,812
1958
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1959
January
February
March
April
May
June
u.s.
Demand
deposita
adjusted 7
Total
time
deposits
495
720
1,450
6,463
6,619
6,639
7,942
7,239
6,452
6,619
8,003
1,234
951
1,983
9,937
10,520
10,515
11,196
11,864
12,169
11,870
12,729
1,790
1,609
2,267
6,777
7,502
7,997
8,699
9,120
9,42-l
10,679
12,077
13,197
13,142
13,356
13,350
13,419
13,591
13,812
7,632
7,670
7,984
7,827
7,846
8,026
8,003
11,278
11,744
11,774
11,860
12,176
12,395
12,729
11,724
11,817
11,776
11,836
11,725
12,077
13,897
14,022
14,176
14,768
15,000
15,328
8,099
7,735
7,436
7,739
7,511
7,329
12,508
12,210
12,228
12,874
12,520
12,589
12,037
12,018
12,003
12,301
12,399
12,517
Gov't
securities
11,779
Bank
rates on
short-term
business
loans'
....
....
... .
3.66
3.95
4.14
4.09
4.10
4.50
4.97
4.88
4.81
....
....
4.80
....
....
4.95
....
... .
....
4.97
•••
0
5.21
Member bank reserves and related Items
Factors affecting reserves:
Reserve
bank
credit'
+
-
+
-
34
2
2
21
7
14
Commerciallo
Treasury1o0
Money In
clrculatlon•
0
-1,582
-1,912
-3,073
-2,448
-2,685
-3,259
-4,164
-3,558
+ 23
+ 150
+ 245
+1,983
+2.265
+3,158
+2,328
+2,757
+3,274
+3,903
+3,645
6
18
+ 31
+ 189
+ 132
+ 39
- 30
+ 100
- 96
- 83
+ 63
175
185
584
2,269
2,514
2,551
2,505
2,530
2,654
2,686
2,658
18
30
132
140
150
154
172
189
203
209
-
+
+
2,494
2,474
2,621
2,451
2,612
2,727
2,658
212
211
204
210
215
208
239
2,656
2,602
2,588
2,606
2,6il9
2,597
226
234
240
242
232
237
- 110
- 192
+
+
2
38
52
31
89
-
59
52
2
4
0
48
54
409
384
15
+
- 378
- 517
- 305
- 542
11
---
+
-
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
-
+
-
9
13
9
78
84
Bank
debita
Index
31 citiesi>U
(1947-49100)2
-
517
431
541
608
323
783
-
-
+
+
+
+
+
531
302
193
157
726
398
518
+
-
22
4
46
31
57
31
11
+
+
+
+
+
+
389
386
539
635
392
778
-
109
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
17
4
18
48
23
Reserves 11
42
J Adjusted for seasonal variation, except where indicated. Except for department store statistics, all indexes are based upon data from outside sources, as
follows: lumber, California Redwood Association and U.S. Bureau of the Census; petroleum, cement, a.nd copper, U.S. Bureau of Mines; steel, U.S.
Department of Commerce and Ameri!'an Iron and Steel Institute; electric power, Federal Power Commission· nonagricultural and manufacturing
employment, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics a.nd cooperating state agencies ; ret.ail food prices, U.S. Bureau of Li:bor Statistics; carload.ings, various
railroa.ds and railroad associations; and foreign trade, U.S. Burea.u of the Census.
I Daily average.
• Not adjusted for seasonal variation.
4 Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Seattle indexes combined.
'Commercial cargo only, in physical volume, for Los Angeles, San Francisco, Sa.n
Diego, Oregon, a.nd Washington customs districts; starting with July 1950, "special category" exports are excluded because of security reasons.
• Annual figures are as of end of year, monthly figures as of last Wednesday in month.
7 Demand deposits, excluding interbank and U.S. Gov't
deposits, Jess cash items in process of collection. Monthly data partly estimated.
s Average rates on loans made in five major cities.
• Cha.nges
from end of previous month or year.
Jo Minus sign indicates flow of funds out of the District in the case of commercial operations, and excess
u End of year and end of month figures.
u D ebits to total deposits except
of receipts over disbursements in the case of Treasury operations.
interbank prior to 1942. Debits to demand deposits except U.S. Government and interbank deposits from 1942.
e--Estimated.
r-Revised.
99
@FedFRASER