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• etJ-L£~ BoUCJ~wters during 1955-57 . . . . . . . . 102 Review of Business Conditions • . . . . . . . . . . . . 108 B N< A E order to provide information on bank loans made for commercial and industrial purposes, the Federal Reserve System conducted two nationwide surveys of loans outstanding- one as of October 5, 1955, the other as of October 16, 1957. 1 Based on the information revealed by these two surveys, this article presents a broad cross-section of Twelfth District data, and makes some comparisons between these changes and those which have taken place in other Federal Reserve Districts. Table 1 shows the changes between the two surveys in business loans to small, medium, and large business in each of the Federal Reserve Districts. The Twelfth District is distinguished by the greatest percentage increase in total loans, reflecting in part rapid industrial expansion in the Far West from 1955 to 19 57. The gain experienced in loans to large business in this district was not so striking as the increase in loans to small and medium size borrowers. Which lines of business obtained most of the loan expansion in the Twelfth District compared with other areas of the United States? Table 2 reveals that the greatest District expansion occurred in the business category labeled "all other manufacturing and mining," 2 whereas "metals and metal products" experienced the largest growth in the nation. The latter category showed a considerable gain in the District as well, and in both cases this growth mirrors the capital goods boom of 1955-57. The only declines appear in the "textile, apparel, and leather" group, I N This is the second Monthly Review article based on the two surveys. The first contained broad conclusions regarding the impact af monetary restraint on the cost and distribution of credit as between small and large business. See "Monetary Restraint and Business Loans in the Twelfth District, 1955-57." Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Monthly Review, May 1958. 2 This includes such groups as lumber and wood products, furniture and fixtures, paper and allied products, printing and pub102 lishing, and scien tific instruments. 1 E· B lJRI I which was generally weak during the period. Although the District reduction in amounts outstanding to this group exceeded that of the nation, the share of credit outstanding to these producers in the District is much smaller than their shares in other districts. The total increase in loans from 1955 to 1957 varied considerably among banks of different sizes. In fact, the smallest banks in this district (those with total deposits of less than $10 million) actually experienced a decline in business loans outstanding, as Table 3 shows. On the other hand, the largest percentage increases in these loans were registered by banks of intermediate size ($20-250 million in total deposits) although the largest banks had substantial gains also. The one exception occurs in loans to large business by banks with total deposits of $250-500 million, where a considerable decline occurred. TABLE 1 (Percent increase or decrease in amounts outstanding) Relative Size of Borrower Federal Reserve All District Borrowersl All Districts Boston New York Philadelphia Cleveland Richmond Atlanta Chicago St. Louis Minneapolis Kansas City Dallas San Francisco 1 31.9 20.1 35.8 17.7 43.4 20.8 26.5 35.0 16.1 20.5 17.7 10.4 50.6 Small 10.6 .1 .6 9.8 22.4 6.7 18.2 11.3 -15.6 2.1 17.2 -7.6 46.1 Medium Large 28.0 50.7 36.8 55.0 18.4 65.1 32.1 51.1 59.9 33.3 11.6 29 .5 21.1 61.0 23.8 28.5 16.8 40.8 24.1 26.1 22.7 2.4 35.3 16.2 17.0 52.1 Includes a small amount of loans for borrowers whose size was not ascertained. Source : Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, " Member Bank Lending to Small Business, 1955-57," Federal Reserve Bulletin, April 1958, p. 405. (For classification of borrowers by relative size, see Appendix A, p. 409.) MONTHLY REVIEW July 1958 TABLE 2 TH BU IN LOAN TH UNITE ST RICT AND 7 Dl TWE FT ORROW R, 19 TWEL FT H DISTR ICt Millions of Dollars 1955 195 7 BUSINESS OF BORROWER 3,527 All Businesses UNITED STATES Perc ent Distri but ion 1955 1957 100.0 5,411 Percent Chan ge 1955·57 100.0 Bill10ns of Dollars 1955 195 7 Perce nt Oistribut JOn 1955 1957 Percent Change 195 5·57 5 3. 4 30 .8 40 .6 100.0 100 .0 31.9 57.6 28 .4 1 .9 1.7 6 .1 5.6 5 .9 4 .1 3 .2 2 .6 1 .9 2 .4 1 .7 5 .5 10.5 13 .6 8 ,5 Manufactu r ing and Mining 8.5 8 .7 1 .4 10.1 4 .1 8 .3 0 .7 143 295 471 36 645 244 636 11.9 4.5 11 .8 81.2 70. 8 115 . 3 470 539 510 789 13 .3 H .3 9.4 14 .6 46 . 5 64 95 21 5 337 265 508 391 269 1.8 5 .7 1.8 4 .0 6 .2 299 50 356 Food, liquor, tobotto Textiles, apparel, leather Metals and metal products Petroleum, cool, chemicals, rubber All other manufacturing and mining Trade Wholesale Retail Other Commodity dealers Soles finance companies Transportat ion, communicat ion, and public vt ilities Construction Real estate Service s All other nonfinancial 1 99 233 181 300 248 151 6 .6 5 .1 - 48 . 8 8. 3 44 .6 46 .4 69 . 3 57 .6 7 8 .2 4 .9 8 .5 9 .4 7 .0 4 .3 7 .2 4 .9 3.8 2 .8 8 .5 9 .2 6 .2 6 .9 28 .0 - 3 .1 70 . 5 44 . 1 47 .2 2 .4 3.4 3 .0 4 .6 7.8 11.2 7.3 11.3 33.2 0 .7 2.4 9 .2 9 .2 5.5 7 .9 2 .0 7.6 10.3 2 .4 0 .8 3.1 4 .2 2 .0 3 .0 1 .8 2 .3 1.3 1.6 2 .8 2 .8 1 .7 5 .7 4 .3 24 .7 10.7 9.3 47 .0 4.9 17. 1 7 .3 5 .6 4 .0 22 .5 28 . 3 20.4 N ote : De tai ls ma y not add to total• because ol ro unding. Table 5 provides additional information about bank lending in the Twelfth District during the period of monetary restraint from 1955 to 1957. Evidently banks did not give great preference to the corporate form of In general, the smallest District banks also had the smallest percentage rise in interest rates. (Table 4) Otherwise, all sizes of banks increased their rates more for large borrowers than for small ones. TABLE U IN 3 T MEMBER BANKS BY 512' LOAN AND 1957 OF (Amounts outstanding In mill i ons of dollars) SIZE OF BORROWER1 (Total assets, in thousands of dollars) SIZE OF BANK (Total deposits in millions of dollars) Less than 2 21020- 10 20 50 so- 100 100- 250 250- 500 500-1,000 1 ,000 and over All banks Less than 250 Percent change Percent change 250-5 ,000 1955-57 1955 1957 1955·57 1955 1957 1.8 36.4 37.6 38.3 20.7 99.9 89.5 180.6 373.8 878.6 1.3 27.7 36.2 38.4 41.2 116.3 122.4 183.4 472.4 1,039.5 -26.3 -23.8 -3.6 0.2 98.9 16.4 36.9 1.5 26.4 18.3 0.2 14.1 19.0 36.3 57.1 120.3 244.3 350.0 661.0 1,502.4 7.4 31.2 51.9 85 .8 229.6 365.6 552.7 1,138.1 2,462.3 * * -47.1 63.6 42.8 50.3 90.8 49.7 57.9 72.2 63.9 Percent change 5,000 and over 1955 1957 1955·57 * * 0.3 2.1 1.5 2.8 48.7 170.4 177.2 740.3 1,143.3 * 1.9 4.6 9.1 79.4 133.5 264.7 1,415.4 1,908.7 * * 9.7 214.9 229.0 63.1 21.7 49.4 91.2 67.0 The three sizes of borrower categories in Table 3 do not correspond to the small, medium, and large classification in Table 1, which were designated on the basis of relative sizes in the various industries. "Indicates less than $50,000 outstanding. 1 103 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO TABLE 4 L ES AN 957 SIZE OF BORROWER (Total assets, in thousands of dollars) SIZE OF BANK (Total depos its in mi llions of dollars) Less than 2 210 10- 20 2050 50- 100 100- 250 250- 500 500-1,000 1,000 and over All banks Less than 250 1955 1957 6.33 5.87 5.86 5.69 5.42 5.58 5.51 5.58 5.72 5.66 7.23 6.01 6.55 5.99 6 .19 6.30 6.19 5.94 6.48 6.29 Percent change 1955-57 250-5,000 1955 1957 14.2 2.4 11.8 5.3 14.2 12 ,9 12.3 6.5 13.3 11.1 7.54 5.18 5.50 5.30 5.02 4.73 4.58 4.69 4.95 4.83 * 5.68 5.65 5.58 5.69 5.44 5.52 5.39 5.68 5.58 Percent change 1955-57 * 9.7 2.7 5.3 13.4 15 .0 20.5 14.9 14.8 15.5 5,000 and over 1955 1957 * 4.03 4.67 3.53 3.93 3.30 3.73 3.58 3.89 3.79 * * 4 .02 4.87 4.82 4.57 4.62 4.53 4 .63 4.61 Percent change 1955-57 * * -13.9 38.0 22.7 38.5 23.9 26.5 19.0 21.6 *Indicates no comparable Interest rate. business organization durin_g this period, since corporations received only a slightly greater amount of loans than did noncorporate business. The percentage increases in the dollar amount of secured and unsecured loans for all size groups of business do not indicate a preference by bankers for either type of loan; there was an almost equal percentage advance in both. However, there was a much greater increase in the number of secured loans, which seems to indicate that most of the new loans TABLE made during the period were secured ones. Long-term loans showed a larger increase than short-term loans, both in number and amount. The correspondence in relative gain of both secured and long-term loans is not surprising, since long-term loans are generally secured. Long-term borrowing, as shown in Table 6, did not grow by so much as to force interest rates up to the level of short-term loans. The large increase in long-term borrowing is as5 BU BY ALL BORROWERS Number (In thousands) 1955 1957 Corporate or Noncorporate Corporate Noncorporate 104 Percent change 1955·57 Amounts outstanding (in bi !lions of dollars) 1955 1957 Percent change 1955-57 31.4 120.0 44.1 151.4 40.4 26.2 2.5 1.0 3.9 1.6 53.8 52.4 Secured or Unsecured Secured Unsecured 56.1 61 .1 120.0 75.6 113.7 23 .8 2.0 1.5 3.1 2.3 53.7 53.0 Maturity of Loans Short-term lone year or less) Long-term lover one year) 90. 1 61.3 106.6 88.9 18.3 45.1 2.2 1.3 3.3 2 .1 47.6 63.3 July 1958 MONTHLY REVIEW general information can be drawn from these charts? In most of the industries medium and large business generally experienced a greater percentage increase in dollar amount of loans outstanding than did small business. The most striking exception appears to be the group labeled "petroleum, coal, chemicals, and rubber," in which large increases were registered in the less than $50,000 and the $1-5 million size classes. (Both classes are defined as small business in this particular industry.) In addition, the larger of the small sales finance companies, as well as of the metals and metal products companies, fared relatively well. In every industry, percentage changes in amounts outstanding between the surveys exceeded those in interest rates. Actually, the interest rate line would be slightly different if the composition of borrowers had not changed between the two surveys. For example, if bank lenders weeded out the small marginal borrower dur- sociated with the fact that business usually borrows on a long-term basis for expansion of plant and equipment, which was widespread during the period under review. Moreover, the unusually high bond rates prevailing during the latter part of the 1955-57 period probably encouraged intermediate-term bank borrowing, in the hope that this credit could later be converted to long-term borrowing in the capital market on more favorable terms. The accompanying set of charts shows the percentage changes between the two surveys in both the dollar amount of Twelfth District business loans and interest rates by industry and size of business. The vertical lines, corresponding to certain size groups on each industry chart, represent the division between small, medium, and large business. 1 What 1 A discussion of the criteria used to arrive at defin itions of small, medium, and large business in the various industry categories may be found in: U. S., Congress, Financing Small Business, Report to the Committees on Banking and Currency and tlze Select Committees on Small Business by tlze Federal Reserve System, Parts 1 and 2, 85th Cong., 2nd Sess., April 11 , 1958, pp. 150-171. TABLE 6 IN Short-term (one year or less) long-term (over one year) 1955 1957 Percent change 1955-57 Manufacturing and Mining Food, liquor, tobacco Textiles, apparel, leather Metals and metal products Petroleum, coal, chemicals, and rubber All other manufacturing and mining 4.34 5.29 4.75 4.17 4.65 5.39 5.63 5.06 5.11 5.45 24.2 6.4 6.5 22.5 17.2 4 .97 4.84 4.83 3.88 4.78 4.98 6.11 5.73 3.96 5.08 0.2 26.2 18.6 2.1 6.3 Trade Wholesale Retail 4.83 4.65 5.64 5.35 16.8 15.1 4.72 5.10 5.71 6.10 21.0 19.6 4.32 3.68 5.37 5. 17 24.3 40.5 4.48 4.63 5.56 5.61 24.1 21.2 3.66 5.06 4.58 5.16 4.47 4.77 5.57 5.26 5.45 5.49 30.3 10.1 14.8 5.6 22.8 4.57 5.79 4.92 5.66 5.21 4.96 6.09 5.20 5.92 5.67 8.5 5.2 5.7 4.6 8.8 BUSINESS OF BORROWER Other Commodity dealers Sales finance companies Transportation, communication, and other public utilities Construction Real estate Service fl rms All other nonfinancial 1955 1957 Percent change 1955-57 105 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK O F SAN FRANCISCO *Total assets of borrower: A less than $50,000 C $250,000-1,000,000 E $5,000,000-25 ,000,000 G $100,000,000 and over B $50,000-250,000 D $1,000,000-5,000,000 F $25,000,000-100,000,000 Vertical divisions in charts separate business into small, medium, and large categories, which vary by industry. I n all charts with only 106 one vertical division, the small category is under $50,000. July 1958 MONTHLY REVIEW ing the tight money period, the resulting upgrading of loan quality among small borrowers would render unnecessary increases in interest rates as great as those for large borrowers. From this point of view, it appears that the advantage of relatively smaller increases in interest rates accruing to small borrowers was gained at the cost of a smaller advance in the dollar amount of loans. There are some general reasons, disclosed by the Federal Reserve's interviews with bankers and businessmen, for supposing that the demand for credit increased more among larger businesses. Larger businesses extended more trade credit to their smaller customers and therefore needed more credit themselves. Moreover, some small businesses may have been at a competitive disadvantage and thus were not so favorably situated to demand and use as much additional bank credit as large business. Tbis last factor may cut two ways, since a competitive disadvantage can not only curb the demand for credit but can also lead to a restriction of the supply by banks-where the element of risk is extremely important in the process of lending. In summary, it appears that both demand and supply factors were responsible for the relatively greater increase in credit to medium and large businesses during the 1955-57 period of monetary restraint; that small business expanded its bank indebtedness more in the Twelfth than in any other district; that the smallest banks (those with total deposits under $10 million) showed a decline in their business loans outstanding; that the capital goods boom was reflected by greater increases in bank lending to the industries involved; and that long-term lending grew relatively faster than short-term lending. 107 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO wo N business activity rose more than seasonally during May and early June. Although this development suggests that the decline in activity is being reversed, optimism should be tempered. Improvements thus far in employment, business sales, construction, and other indicators contrast with declines in many of these measures only a few months ago, but the degree of strength in most of these indicators is not conclusive evidence of a continuing upturn. Industrial production rose four index points during May and June, to 130 percent of the 1947-49 average (seasonally adjusted) in the latter month. Most of the gain occurred in the production of durable goods, although output of most types of nondurable goods and minerals was also higher. Both automobile assemblies and steel output rose sharply through most of the period, but production declines were scheduled in these industries for late June and early July. Sales and new order inflows of manufacturers during May showed moderate increases after seasonal adjustment and all of the improvement occurred among durable goods producers. Unfilled order backlogs at the end of May were about 1 percent below the April level, however. New construction put in place fell slightly during May, but rose a little more than seasonally during June. Private housing starts increased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,010,000 dwelling units in May, compared with 950,000 units in April. Construction contracts awarded during May, as reported by the F. W. Dodge Corporation, rose from the improved April level and were slightly above the total for May 1957. Heavy construction awards showed marked improvement in both May and June. Retail sales changed very little during May and June after increasing in April, but sales by automobile dealers showed a less than seasonal rise in June following advances in April ATIONAL 108 ndt 1 and May. Recent data on total manufacturing and trade inventories point to an improved relationship to current sales, although it appears that stocks still remain above desired levels. Total inventories have been reduced by an average of about $800 million per month in the first five months of 1958. Personal income has been rising since March and recorded a substantial gain in May. Most significant during the month was the reversal in wage and salary payments, which rose for the first time since last August, and accounted for a little over half the $1.3 billion total increase in personal income. Recent Federal salary increases are augmenting the flow of wage and salary payments in June and July. Changes in employment and unemployment were also generally favorable in May and June. Nonfarm jobs rose more than seasonally during both months. Unemployment was reduced to 6.8 percent of the labor force by mid-June (after seasonal adjustment). Despite the improvements, however, 1.5 million fewer persons held civilian jobs during June than in the same month a year ago, and unemployment was about 2.1 million persons higher. The rise in unemployment of approximately 600,000 persons in excess of actual civilian job losses over the year reflects a 200,000-man decrease in the size of the armed forces and a further addition of about 400,000 persons to the nation's work force resulting from continued growth in the working-age population. While growth of the labor force continues, capital outlays to equip current and potential workers are being sharply curtailed. According to the most recent Department of Commerce-Securities and Exchange Commission survey, business firms in most industries continued to reduce their plant and equipment expenditures during the second quarter of July 1958 MONTHLY REVIEW 1958, and further reductions are scheduled for the balance of the year. Presumably, many of the anticipated cutbacks would be revised should the sales outlook improve substantially, but most observers foresee declining plant and equipment outlays well into 1959. Government spending is presently rising, but some state and local governments are experiencing increased difficulty in finding funds to replace falling tax revenues. The upswing in Federal Government contracts, particularly for defense items, has not yet resulted in a significant increase in actual Federal cash outlays. In summary, recent economic developments suggest that downward pressures of past months have abated. Personal income has risen for three months, consumer spending has been largely maintained, and there has been a slight upturn in employment. Government outlays continue to be expansionary, and a moderate recovery in construction activity is evident from recent increases in contract awards and housing starts. Moreover, manufacturers report improvement in sales and new orders. The extended decline in plant and equipment expenditures and the continuing liquidation of business inventories give a mixed tone to the overall economic situation. The national economy at present may be characterized as Jacking in strong forces which point either toward a further sharp decline or to a speedy recovery. District production improves moderately A comparison with previous months shows that business developments in the Twelfth District during May and early June also improved. Seasonal outdoor activity expanded as operations were no longer hampered by weather. Some downward pressures continue to be apparent, but they have largely moderated, and several key District industries have shown renewed strength in the most recent period. Lumber industry reports indicate some slight improvement in both production and new order inflows during May and early June. In addition, firms have maintained a better balance between production and demand this year, bringing inventories more into line. The plywood industry remains in an unsettled state due to current excess capacity, but plywood prices increased in June to $68 per thousand square feet of the basic grade, and several firms were reported as quoting a price of $72 per thousand square feet at the end of the month. Twelfth District steel output rose further during May and most of June but declined slightly toward the end of the month. As in other sections of the nation, part of the increase during the period seems to have been the result of hedging against a steel price increase previously anticipated in early July. The important fruit and vegetable canning industry in this district is entering the 195859 marketing season with significantly better prospects than a year ago. Inventories carried over from the previous season are generally not so burdensome as in 1956 or 1957. No major changes in the size of the total pack are foreseen for this year, and demand continues to be strong. The recent recovery in price of several important items is expected to be maintainable in coming months, so that there may be an improvement in the rather narrow profit margins of the past two years. Housing records additional gain Residential construction in the Twelfth District recorded an additional gain during May. Construction employment, in which the housing segment is the most changeable during short-run periods, rebounded to the May level of a year ago. In addition, the F. W. Dodge Corporation reports that residential construction contracts awarded during May 109 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO exceeded the same month in both 1956 and 1957. Renewed lender interest in Federal Housing Administration and Veterans' Administration mortgages has given additional impetus to the housing revival. Nonresidential building awards dropped off from May 1957, however, after several months of favorable year-ago comparisons, and public works and utilities awards in this district still have not shown the recent strength evidenced by such awards in other parts of the nation. Employment rises more than seasonally The number of persons at work in nonfarm jobs in the Twelfth District rose slightly above seasonal expectations in May. The improvement was shared by all major types of industry except transportation, but the only exceptional gain occurred in construction employment. Compared with last year, nonfarm employment has dropped by about 135,000 persons, the largest job loss being recorded by commodity-producing industries. (Chart 1) Government employment showed the only sizable increase over the period-about 46,000 workers were added to government payrolls. The gain in manufacturing employment during May was significant in that a series of uninterrupted declines extending back to mid1957 had been reported by manufacturing firms. Changes within individual lines were generally small during the month; machinery and canning experienced the only sizable losses from April-1,700 and 3,100 workers respectively. The variability of harvest seasons suggests, however, that the decline in the latter industry is not significant. Moreover, these losses were more than offset by gains in apparel, lumber, and transportation equip- 110 ment. The key aircraft industry has increased employment slightly over the past few months, as moderate job cutbacks at Southern California plants were exceeded by job expansions in other parts of the state and in Washington. Despite the overall improvement in employment during May, continued growth in the civilian labor force resulted in a less than seasonal decline in unemployment. Unemployment in the three Pacific Coast states rose to 7.2 percent of the labor force after seasonal adjustment, compared with a rate of 7.1 percent in April. The number of persons in the Twelfth District drawing benefit checks under the various state and Federal unemployment insurance programs in May also failed to show a significant decline after seasonal adjustment. Insured unemployment continued to be particularly high in the Pacific Northwest, despite the increasing number of persons who have exhausted their eligibility for benefits. CHART 1 NONFARM EMPLOYMENT IN TWELFTH DISTRICT STATES SEASO NALLY ADJUSTED IIONTHLl DATA Finance, insurance, and real estate; services; Government. 2Manufacturing. mining, contract construction. Transportation, communication, and public utilities; wholesale and retail trade. *Employment reduced significantly by labor disputes. Source: State Employment Agencies, seasonal adjustments by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. 1 8 MONTHLY REVIEW July 1958 BUSINESS INDEXES- TWELFTH DISTRICT 1 (1947-49 average = 100) Industrial production (physical volume)• Year and month lumber 1929 1933 1939 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1055 1956 1957 95 40 71 100 113 113 116 118 116 124 116 106 87 52 67 99 98 106 107 109 106 106 105 101 78 50 63 103 103 112 116 122 119 122 129 132 108 109 103 104 101 101 102 99 101 101 101 101 102 101 101 101 106 104 101 95 102 100 97 95 94 93 1937 May June July August September October November December 1958 January February March April May Petroleum• Crude Refined Electric lead• Copper' 165 72 93 101 109 89 87 77 11>6 140 75 79 77 105 17 80 93 113 115 113 111 101 118 12!) 126 29 26 40 108 119 136 144 161 172 192 210 224 138 131 133 137 135 132 131 124 157 152 162 160 169 161 146 139 83 78 69 75 75 76 63 62 126 130 113 115 127 126 125 125 122 114 119 119 124 135 112 112 129 62 64 60 65 123 125 123r 117 Cement 54 27 56 100 112 128 124 130 132 71 145 ... power 0 ••• .... .... Retail food prices .. ' Exports lmporta Qlj 30 18 31 98 107 112 120 122 122 132 141 141 64 42 47 100 100 113 115 113 113 112 114 118 190 110 163 85 91 186 171 140 131 164 195 230 124 72 95 121 137 157 200 308 260 308 443 575 Carloadings (num- . ... 102 52 77 94 98 100 100 100 96 104 104 ber)t . '55 Waterborne foreign trade•• 1 Dep't store sales (value)• Total mf'g employment 99 103 112 118 121 120 127 134 188 97 105 120 130 137 134 143 152 157 229 239 238 233 217 223 222 216 138 139 138 138 138 138 137 137 158 159 159 158 156 15.5 152 151 99 100 94 97 93 84 9.5 93 141 148 141 144 141 134 139 139 117 118 118 119 119 119 118 119 283 252 188 210 173 199 210 178 698 511 770 572 607 684 582 610 223 221 226 137 136 136 135 135 150 149 148 147r 147 94 86 87 87 90 132 135 137 142 142 121 121 123 125 124 163 393 358 ... . .. ... Total nonagrlcultural employment . .. ... . .. . .. .. . ... . .. . .. BANKING AND CREDIT STATISTICS-TWELFTH DISTRICT (amounts in millions of dollars) Condition Items of all member banks1 Year and month 1929 1933 Hl39 1950 1931 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1957 June July August September October November December 1958 January February March April May June u.s. Demand deposits adjusted' Total lime deposits 495 720 1,450 6,415 6,463 6,619 6,639 7,912 7,239 6,452 6,619 1,234 951 1,983 9,254 9,937 10,520 10,515 11,196 11,864 12,169 11,870 1,790 1,609 2,267 6,302 6,777 7,502 7,997 8,699 9,120 9,424 10,679 12,911 12,912 J 2,945 13,178 13,064 13,185 13,178 6,249 tl,319 6,313 6,293 6,433 6,357 6,619 11 ,310 11,•107 11.329 11,561 11,570 11,770 11,870 10,155 10,188 10,220 10,301 10,417 10,304 10,679 13,106 13,002 12,860 12,979 12.977 13,197 6,573 6,884 7,075 7,605 7,546 7,632 11,601 11,305 11,225 11,570 11 ,292 11,278 10,761 10,992 11,183 11,406 11,,530 11,724 Loans and discounts Gov't securities 2,239 1,486 1,967 7,093 7,866 8,839 9,220 9,418 11,124 12.613 13,178 Member bank reserves and related Items Bank rates on short-term business loansl ...... ...... - + + - + 4.81 0 • •• 5,21 ....... .. ... 5.13 .... ••••• - + ...... •• Reserve hank credit' + + 3.35 3.66 3.95 4.14 4.09 4.10 4.50 4.97 0 4.95 ..... . ...... . . .... Bank debits Index 31 cltfesloll Factors affecting reserves : + - + + - + - + + - Money In clrcufallon' Cammercla)te TreasurylD 0 110 192 -1,141 -1,582 -1,912 -3,073 -2,448 -2,685 -3,259 -4,164 + 23 + 150 + 245 +1,198 +1,983 +2,2()5 +3,158 +2,328 +2.757 +3,274 +3,903 -+- 29 49 50 109 76 14 18 - + + + + + + + 402 320 322 470 159 447 480 + + + - 374 426 175 424 322 298 454 16 12 62 43 - 258 -- 391 203 409 + 180 + 298 + 253 + 371 + 154 + 531 34 2 2 39 21 7 14 2 38 52 31 11 59 - - - - - 427 - 180 - Reservesu (1947-49~ 100) 1 6 18 31 - 14 + 189 + 132 + 39 - 30 + 100 - 96 - 83 175 185 584 2,026 2,269 2,514 2,551 2,505 2,530 2,654 2,680 42 18 30 115 132 140 150 154 172 189 203 20 6 39 30 8 37 23 2,483 2,457 2,592 2,581 2,517 2,652 2,686 203 205 197 204 200 202 217 + + 137 17 11 + + 90 22 2,662 2,520 2,530 2,574 2,4.56 2,494 211 203 198 206 193 212 - + - - - 2 1 Adjusted for seasonal variation, except where indicated. Except for department store statistics, all indexes are based upon data from outside sources, as follows: lumber, California Redwood Association and U.S. Bureau of the Census; petroleum, cement, copper, and lead, U.S. Bureau of Mines; electric power, Federal Power Commission; nonagricultural and manufacturing employment, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and cooperating state agencies; retail food prices, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; carloadings, various railroads and railroad associations; and foreign trade, U.S. Bureau of the Census. • Daily average. t Not adjusted for seasonal variation. 'Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Seattle indexes combined. I Commercial cargo only, in physical volume, for Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego, Oregon, and Washington customs district.si starting with July 1950, "special category" exports are excluded because of security reasons. e Annual figures are as of end of year, montllly figures sa of last Wednesday in month. ?Demand deposits, excluding interbank and U.S. Gov't deposits, less cash items in process of collection. Monthly data partly estimated. • Average rates on loans made in five major cities. • Changes from end of previous month or year. to Minus sign indicates flow of funds out of the District in the case of commercial operations, and excess of receipts over disbursements in the case of Treasury operations. u End of year and end of month figures. u Debits to total deposits except interbank prior to 1942. Debits to demand deposits except U.S. Government and interbank deposits from 1942. p-Preliminary. r-Revised. 111
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