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M&ntkiu mm Revieur FEDERAL RESERVE BANK JULY OF SAN F R A N C ISC O 1948 REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS m ploym ent in the United States reached an all-time high in June, following an increase in May. While E Twelfth District figures for June show increases over May in each state, employment is below June of last year except in California and Arizona. The third round of wage increases continued, although raises were typi cally more moderate than during either the first or second round. Commercial, industrial and agricultural loans continued to rise in June and early July, but at a slower rate than in May. Real estate loans expanded much more slowly in June and registered a decline in the first week of July for the first time in more than two years, but increased again in the following week. United States employment higher in June than ever before; District employment rises in June after May decline With the closing of schools and the great activity on farms, in canneries, in new construction, and in vacation spots, 2.6 million Americans found jobs in June, bringing total United States employment up to 62.6 million, an all-time high. But at the same time, 400,000 more people were unemployed than in May, reflecting a seasonal in crease of 3 million in the labor force. In May, employment had increased by 300,000, and unemployment had fallen by 400,000 to 1 $4 million. In the Twelfth District, more people had jobs in June than in May in every state, although employment was not up to the level of June, 1947, except in California and Arizona. In May, employment had dropped considerably in Washington and Oregon, causing a decline in total District employment, although the other five states had experienced increases. The difficulties in these two states are found in the aircraft and lumber industries. In Wash ington 14,000 workers were idle in May in the aircraft industry because of a labor dispute. The lumber industry had an unusually bad spring. First, wet weather hampered logging operations far beyond the time when production is normally in full swing. Then in April many large saw mills were forced to close because of the shortage of logs brought about by the strike of the boommen and rafters. By the end of May and early June, just as the mills were beginning to resume operations after the settlement of the strike, swelling rivers flooded the land, and many of the same sawmills were forced to close once again. In the hardest-hit areas, all industries were forced to close and thousands of workers were idle. But as June progressed, sawmills began to resume operations, aircraft employ ment increased somewhat, and agricultural activities and food processing picked up seasonally. Consequently, the June estimate showed a net increase. In California, a few more wage and salary earners were employed in manufacturing industries in May than in April, and there were more in June than at any time so far this year, or than in any other peacetime June. The exceptionally high level of construction activity brought employment to all-time highs in the lumber and timber industry, and the stone, clay, and glass industry. Employ ment in paper and allied products and printing and pub lishing also rose to new heights. Opportunities for agricultural employment in the Pa cific Coast states were favorable in June, with some shortages of workers appearing in the berry fields of Washington and Oregon. In California the anticipated shortage of pickers in the citrus belt and in the field crops of the Salinas Valley was eased by the importation of Mexican nationals. Reports from the Central Valley indicate an adequacy of field labor, with the surplus cre ated by the near-completion of the potato harvest in Kern County moving into the fruit areas. Third round of wage increases continues The third round of postwar wage increases, which began in November 1947, is still under way. It was esti mated in mid-July that more than 10 million labor union members in the United States had received third round wage boosts, as well as a large number of nonunion workers. Typical settlements have been somewhat smaller than the increases granted in the first two rounds, and so far have not followed as uniform a pattern. Most of the increases recently won by large unions range from 11 to 13 cents an hour, and only rarely touch the 15-cent level of round two in 1946-47. Generally they have not reached the 18-cent pattern of first round increases early in 1946. The U. S. Steel increases announced July 16 averaged 13 cents an hour and ranged from 9^4 to 26 cents an hour for the company’s 170,000 CIO United Steelworker em ployees. A number of other steel companies soon an nounced similar increases. Wage raises in important Twelfth District industries have been in general similar in amount to those through out the country. Several large employee groups, including the A F L Lumber and Sawmill Workers in the Oregon and Washington Douglas fir region, the pine wood work ers in Southern Oregon and Northern California, the in 58 FEDERAL RESERVE B A N K OF SA N FRAN CISCO dependent International Association of Machinists, the A F L Molders, and the A F L Northern California Boiler makers, have won 12 to 12^-cent increases in the third round. Others, including the CIO Utility Workers, IL W U Longshoremen and IL W U Warehousemen have been awarded 10-cent an hour raises. The 8,000 oil re finery workers in California have signed an agreement providing for a 5-cent an hour wage raise in November, with supplementary 2^4-cent increases effective Decem ber 15th and January 15th. In addition, their cost-ofliving bonus has been continued, although slightly re duced from 10.2 cents to 10 cents an hour. The 60,000 West Coast A F L shipbuilding workers and A F L Sailors’ Union of the Pacific have settled for 8 cents an hour and an 8 percent increase, respectively. Transit workers and city employees throughout the Twelfth District have received increases which are in most cases less than those granted larger bargaining groups. On the other hand, A F L Carpenters in the San Francisco Bay Area have been successful in winning a 16cent an hour boost, which makes their wage scale slightly higher than that for the rest of Northern and Central Cali fornia, and above the average rate of increase for the coun try as a whole. Truck drivers in California have recently received increases ranging from 8 percent to 16 percent, which, in terms of amount of increase, were relatively high for the third round. In several cases, two wage increases have occurred within the period of the third round. A F L employees of Pacific Gas and Electric Company won $2 a week in No vember 1947 and got an additional 5c an hour in March 1948. The A F L Lumber and Sawmill Workers received their 12^4-cent increase in two separate awards: 7^4 cents an hour in January and 5 cents in April. The Pacific Gas and Electric CIO Utility Workers also gained their 10-cent increase in two awards, and the Los Angeles transit employees are now asking a 5-cent supplement to the 5-cent increase awarded them in June. Bank loans continue to expand The significant upturn in May in total loans of Twelfth District member banks continued in June, though at a July 1948 somewhat slower pace. The percentage increase in com mercial, industrial, and agricultural loans of weekly re porting banks exceeded that for any other month this year. The relative growth in real estate loans, on the other hand, was the smallest for any month this year. In the first week of July real estate loans turned down ward for the first time in more than two years. During the following week, however, such loans again increased, obscuring the significance of the previous week’s decline. The rate of growth of real estate loans in June also de clined for weekly reporting member banks in the country as a whole, though not so much as in the District. Com mercial, industrial, and agricultural loans of these banks continued the slow rise which started in May. Factors affecting reserves District member bank reserves experienced little net change either in June or in the entire second quarter of this year. The two principal factors affecting District bank reserves behaved quite differently, however, in the second quarter than in the first. A seasonal excess of Treasury receipts over disbursements within the District operated to reduce bank reserves in the first quarter, while in the second quarter an excess of disbursements over receipts supplied reserves. On the other hand, an excess of interdistrict receipts over payments, other than on Treasury account, served to increase reserves in the first quarter, while a reversal of this flow of funds served to reduce reserves in the second quarter. Income tax collections and the debt retirement program accounted for the excess of Treasury receipts in the first quarter. To meet the resulting drain on reserves, banks obtained funds by selling securities outside the District, which helped to produce the inflow of funds arising from nonTreasury transactions. The reversal of these movements in the second quarter returned them to the pattern of flow in the District that has long been characteristic of the year as a whole. Reserve Bank credit extended locally expanded some what in the second quarter despite some decrease in June. Bank reserves were also augmented by a return of currency from circulation both in June and for the second quarter as a whole. NEW AGRICULTURAL PRICE SUPPORT LEGISLATION A g r i c u l t u r a l A c t o f 1948, signed by the Presi dent on July 3, is a last-minute compromise. It ex tends, with some changes, the present price support program until the end of 1949, and provides a long-range flexible price support program beginning January 1,1950. The bill does not include any longer-range plan of soil and water conservation, but extends the existing program of soil conservation payments until the end of 1950. There has been little fundamental change in price sup port legislation for seven years. The old legislation, which expires at the end of this year, divides all agricultural commodities entitled to support into three groups: (a) the basic commodities— wheat, corn, cotton, tobacco, rice, h e T and peanuts for nuts; (b ) the Steagall commodities, namely, commodities the increased production of which was asked by the Government by special public procla mation— hogs, eggs, certain types of chickens, turkeys, milk and butterfat, dry peas and dry beans of certain varieties, soybeans for oil, peanuts for oil, flaxseed for oil, American Egyptian cotton, potatoes, and cured sweet potatoes; and (c ) other commodities, either supported on the basis of special legislation, such as wrool and sugar beets, or supported in carrying out the expressed policy of bringing the prices of such commodities into fair parity relationship with other commodities. Among the commodities supported on this basis have been barley, July 1948 M O N T H L Y REVIEW grain sorghums, rye, certain vegetables for processing, certain fruits for processing, and naval stores. Prices have been supported at not less than 90 percent of parity by a variety of means, including loans to producers, out right purchases, and agreements with processors. The price support program for 1949 Title I of the Agricultural Act of 1948 authorizes and directs the Secretary of Agriculture to support the prices received by producers of cotton, wheat, corn, tobacco, rice, and peanuts through the end of 1949. The producers with approved marketing quotas of these commodities are guaranteed a support price of 90 percent of parity for such commodities at the beginning of the marketing year. Thus, in respect to basic commodities, the support system now in operation is extended with the following changes: cotton is to be supported at 90 percent instead of 92 ^ percent of parity; the present parity base period for Maryland tobacco, August 1919 to July 1929, is changed to August 1936 to July 1941. The Secretary of Agricul ture is authorized to establish support prices for Steagall commodities, between a minimum of 60 percent of the parity or comparable price and the level at which such commodity was supported in 1948. The exceptions to this rule are potatoes harvested before January 1, 1949, milk and its products, and hogs, chickens, and eggs, which shall be supported at 90 percent of the parity or com parable price. Prices of other agricultural commodities also may be supported to bring them into a fair parity relationship with prices of basic and Steagall commodi ties to the extent of funds available after other support price actions are fulfilled. In regard to all nonbasic com modities the Secretary of Agriculture has the authority to require that producers comply with production goals and marketing regulations regarding such commodities to be eligible for price support. Long-range price support Title II of the Agricultural Act of 1948 comes into operation on January 1, 1950, and will supersede the support program described above. This title provides for a sliding scale of price support of basic commodities according to the level of supply of specific commodities. If the “ supply percentage,, of a basic commodity is not more than 70, the support rate is 90 percent of parity. The supply percentage is the relationship of total supply to “ normal” supply, as determined by the Department of Agriculture on the basis of available data on production, consumption, exports, carry-over, etc., at the beginning of each marketing year. As the supply percentage rises, the rate of support decreases, and when the supply percent age exceeds 130, the support price reaches its minimum, 60 percent of the parity price.1 Tobacco prices are to be supported, however, at 90 percent of parity. 1 If acreage allotments for a basic commodity are in effect at the beginning of the planting season, or if marketing quotas are in effect at the beginning of the marketing year, the commodity is to be supported at 120 percent of the minimum level of support indicated in the sliding scale, although not at a higher rate than 90 percent of parity. Marketing quotas must be established for the marketing year beginning in the next calendar year whenever it is determined that the total supply for the current marketing year will exceed the “ normal” supply by more than 20 percent, or 8 per cent in the case of cotton. 59 The support for agricultural commodities other than the six basic commodities can range between 0 and 90 percent of parity at the discretion of the Secretary of Agriculture. The price of wool, however, is to be sup ported at a level between 60 and 90 percent of parity until domestic production reaches 360 million pounds annually (1936-45 annual average production was 360 million pounds, but wool production has been declining, and 1948 production is estimated at 240 million pounds). Potatoes harvested after December 31, 1949 are to be supported at 60 to 90 percent of parity. Furthermore, the law provides that the support price for any commodity can be increased above maximum levels otherwise prescribed, upon the decision of the Secretary of Agriculture on the basis of proper study and public hearings showing that “ price support at such increased levels is necessary in order to increase or maintain the production of any agricultural commodity in the interest of national security.” Change in parity price computation Besides this flexible price support scheme, Title II of the Agricultural Act of 1948 provides for a somewhat different calculation of parity prices. Under present legis lation the parity price of a commodity is obtained by mul tiplying the average price of the commodity in the base period, namely the period August 1909 to July 1914 (or as otherwise determined), by the current index (1910-14 = 100) of prices of products farmers buy both for their direct consumption needs and for production needs, in cluding also taxes and interest rates on loans secured by farm real estate. The new formula, which becomes effective in 1950, substitutes a moving or adjusted base price for the 191014 price of the commodity. This adjusted base price is the average price of the commodity during the last ten years divided by the average index (August 1909-July 1914 = 100) of prices received by farmers during the same 10 years. If the increase from the 1909-14 average to the average of the last ten years in the index of prices received by farmers is less than the increase in the price of a par ticular commodity over the same period, the new parity price of that commodity will be higher than its parity price as now computed on a 1909-14 base. If the commod ity has increased less in price over that period than the index of prices received by farmers, its new parity price will be lower. (The method of computing any parity price which gets seriously out of line with other parity prices may be revised by the Secretary of Agriculture.) Any reduction in parity price because of the change in computation would be limited, however, to 5 percent per year. This transitional parity price is to be the parity price as now computed less 5 percent for each full year elapsed beginning with 1949, and is to be used for a commodity until the first time it is equaled or exceeded by the parity price as computed on the new basis. Price supports of specific products Assuming that the legislation is not revised before 1950, price supports for specific products at that time will 60 FEDERAL RESERVE B A N K OF SA N FRANCISCO P a r i t y P r ic e s o f S e l e c t e d C o m m o d i t i e s U n d e r P r e s e n t a n d P roposed F o r m u l a s Commodity Average price received by farmers Unit June 15, 1948 W heat ............................. bu. R i c e .................................. bu. Cotton ............................. lb. Potatoes ........................ bu. Barley ............................. bu. W o o l ................................lb. $2.11 3.11 0.3522 1.87 1.68 0.495 ( Parity price, June 15, 1948------N Present Proposed Transitional formula formula (for first year) $2.22 2.04 0.3112 1 .8 6 1 1.55 0.459 $1.88 2.32 0.2858 1.62 1.26 0.533 $2.11 — 0.2956 1.77 1.47 — 1 Based on comparable price of $1.12 per bu. during 10-season average, 1919-28. O n 1909-14 base, parity price would be $1.75. be affected by their parity prices under the new method of computation and by the percent of parity at which prices will be supported, neither of which can be determined now. Some general indication of shifts in parity prices, however, may be given. Under the proposed formula, parity prices will be higher for some products and lower for others than as now computed. A commodity will have a higher parity price if its latest ten-year average price is higher, in relation to its average price in 1909-14, than the latest ten-year average of the index of all prices received by farmers. This means, for example, that parity would tend to be lower under the proposed formula for cotton and most grains, and higher for livestock and dairy products. Parity prices as of June 15, 1948 for six important District crops, as determined by present and proposed parity formulas, are listed below. Where reductions of more than 5 percent are indicated, the transitional parity price, discussed above, is to be used. The percent of parity at which any particular price would be supported will not exceed 90, but how far below that level it might be set is not known. In the case of basic commodities, a “ normal” supply is supposed to mean price support at 75 percent of parity, but whether supplies will be “ normal” in 1950, and whether such a scale will be applied to non-basic com modities remains to be seen. July 1948 ready to allow price supports to lapse or to adopt an im mediately effective program involving any fundamental changes. Two changes are significant in the longer-range pro gram. First, the new parity formula allows parity prices of individual commodities to be affected by relative shifts among prices of agricultural commodities since 1910-14. Parity price, as now computed, allows a unit of a specific commodity the same purchasing power, in terms of the things farmers buy, as it had in 1910-14. Under the new formula, the price per unit of a specific commodity may reflect more or less purchasing power than it had in 1910-14. For agricultural commodities generally, how ever, the basic concept that parity prices should provide the same purchasing power in terms of the things farmers buy as in 1910-14 is maintained. Conclusions Second, greater flexibility is introduced into the price support structure. Instead of the more or less general requirement that support prices shall be at least 90 per cent of parity, a sliding scale for basic commodities, whereby the support level will vary inversely with the supply expressed as a percent of “ normal,” is established. With certain exceptions, no minimum level of price sup port is required for other commodities. However, the principle that support prices should be lower, the larger the supply, is rather extensively qualified. In potatoes, wool, and tobacco, troublesome surpluses, at present prices, already exist and are likely to continue. Each of these commodities is given preferential treatment with reference to support prices. For basic commodities gen erally, the existence of acreage allotments at the beginning of a planting season, or the existence of marketing quotas at the beginning of a marketing year, both of which would indicate excessive supply, require that such commodities be supported at a level 20 percent higher than that indi cated by the scale, although not above 90 percent of parity. The new legislation reflects the desire of Congress both to have price supports in effect in 1949 and to meet some of the criticism of the existing price support program. The short-range portion of the law, pertaining to 1949, is primarily a stop-gap measure, since Congress was not This legislation has modified somewhat the present price support program, but it has not resolved a good many fundamental questions. Discussion over the eco nomic and political aspects of alternative schemes of aid to agriculture undoubtedly will continue. GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION OF BANK DEPOSITS— TWELFTH DISTRICT a t t h e end of 1947, deposits of individuals, partnerxtL ships, and corporations were substantially higher than at the end of 1941 in all parts of the Twelfth Dis trict. A recent tabulation of deposits by counties1 has shown that out of 215 counties in the District with bank ing facilities, deposits increased less than 125 percent in 1 Deposits by counties are not regularly available because of the lack of data by banking office for^ branch banks, many of which have offices in more than one county. Special tabulations of deposits of individuals, partnerships, and corporations in all banks by county were published by the Treasury Department for 1941 through 1944, as of the year end, and a similar tab ulation as of the end of 1947 has been made by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Copies of the^ report showing demand and time deposits as of December 31, 1947, for individual counties, are avail able from this bank upon request. only six and more than 375 percent in 31. The deposit increase is remarkably pervasive, but increases in metro politan areas are considerably smaller, percentagewise, than gains in other counties. High farm prices and in comes are an important factor in the greater relative gains in agricultural counties. In making comparisons among counties or groups of counties, however, the vari ation in the dollar bases from which increases are meas ured must be kept in mind. Deposits in Owyhee County, Idaho, for instance, increased by 1200 percent but the increase in volume was only $1 million. On the other July 1948 M O N T H L Y REVIEW P E R C E N T IN C R E A S E S , 1941-47, IN B A N K D E P O S IT S B Y C O U N T I E S —T W E L F T H D IS T R IC T Deposits of Individuals, Partnerships, and Corporations as of year-end 61 62 July 1948 FEDERAL RESERVE B A N K OF SA N FRAN CISCO During the war, bank deposits in the Twelfth District increased considerably more than in the country as a whole. From the end of 1941 to the end of 1947, deposits of individuals, partnerships, and corporations increased 115 percent in the nation, compared with the District increase of 183 percent. Some feared a sharp drop in District deposits soon after the end of the war as Federal expenditures for war purposes declined and consumer spending increased for automobiles and other goods pro duced in other parts of the country. District deposits of individuals, partnerships, and corporations have leveled off considerably since the end of 1945, but no significant decline occurred in either 1946 or 1947 in any state total. (Figures by counties are not available as of the end of 1945 or 1946.) New deposits created by the expansion in District bank loans have offset any net shift of existing deposits of individuals, partnerships, and corporations outside the District or to the Treasury. hand, the 93 percent increase in deposits in San Francisco County reflected an absolute increase of $1.2 billion. Over the six years from the end of 1941 through 1947, total deposits of individuals, partnerships, and corpora tions in the District increased 183 percent, but this figure reflects, in large measure, the smaller percentage increases in the major metropolitan counties. The average (me dian) increase in the District counties is 273 percent; that is to say that half the District’s counties had deposit increases in excess of 273 percent, and half had increases of less than that figure. Similar averages by states are shown in the accompanying table. Percent increase in total deposits Average county per cent increase Arizona1 ...................................................................... California .................................................................... I d a h o ............................................................................. Nevada ........................................................................ Oregon ........................................................................ Utah ............................................................................. Washington ............................................................... 318 171 281 219 239 205 192 291 252 313 203 315 245 285 Twelfth District ................................................ 183 273 The widespread character of the deposit gains since 1941 indicates that the District increase is not the result of unusual circumstances in a few areas, but is supported by much more general influences, which indicate that the District will continue to claim a larger share of the nation’s bank deposits than before the war. Among the more important of these influences are: a larger popula tion, increased industrial and agricultural production and income, and more activity in the trades and services in the District, in addition to the higher price structure associated with an increased money supply throughout the nation. 1 Twelfth District counties only. That predominantly agricultural counties tend to have above-average deposit increases may be seen on the ac companying map by reference to eastern Washington, the interior counties of central and southern California, and counties throughout Oregon and Idaho. Below average increases are found not only in the particular counties in which the largest cities of the District are located, but also in all the western Washington counties surrounding Puget Sound, in most of the coastal and mountain coun ties of California, and in all but three Nevada counties. D e p o s it s o f I n d iv id u a ls , P a r t n e r s h i p s , a n d C o r p o r a tio n s i n a l l B a n k s , b y S e le c te d C o u n t i e s ,1 D ecem ber 31, 1941 and 1947— T w e lfth D is tr ic t Amount (millions of dollars) ,--------------- T otal-------District ............ ............ ............ Northern California ................... ............ San Francisco ........................... ............ ............ ............ ............ San Joaquin ................................ ............ Santa Clara .................................. ............ Southern California ................... ............ Los Angeles ............................. ............ San D i e g o .................................... ............ ............ Northern I d a h o ............................. ............ ............ Southern Idaho ............................. ............ A da ................................................ ............ ............ W ashoe ......................................... ............ Oregon ................................................... ............ W estern Oregon ........................... ............ M u ltn o m a h .................................. ............ Eastern O r e g o n ............................. ............ Klamath ....................................... ............ Utah ........................................................ ............ Salt L a k e .................................... ............ W ashington ......................................... ............ W estern W a s h in g t o n ................. ............ K in g .............................................. ............ Pierce ............................................ ............ Eastern W a s h in g t o n .................... ............ Spokane ....................................... ............ N t------------ Dem and------------N ,---------------Time- ...............■\ --— Percentage change 1941-1947-^ 1947 1941 1947 1941 1947 1941 245.5 186.5 11,530.5 6,144.9 2,543.0 818.8 253.0 298.5 205.2 276.4 5,385.7 4,385.4 354.4 384.2 98.5 24.3 285.7 60.2 141.0 67.3 1,284.9 1,105.4 639.2 179.4 32.1 460.8 273.8 1,997.9 1,460.7 907.5 175.9 537.2 179.0 58.8 41.5 4,256.7 2,412.9 1,320.0 301.3 63.0 98.0 57.7 77.3 1,843.8 1,550.5 115.7 100.8 29.3 6.8 71.5 18.2 44.2 21.3 378.9 330.7 220.8 48.2 9.6 150.8 92.4 684.6 539.1 364.9 60.2 145.4 64.2 206.2 176.3 6,177.4 3,000.9 1,322.0 317.9 135.7 140.5 100.4 131.5 3,176.6 2,589.9 190.3 289.6 71.5 17.6 218.0 43.3 86.6 41.5 866.1 722.9 396.3 143.2 23.9 296.9 188.4 1,230.7 835.0 504.3 99.3 395.8 118.5 41.5 29.2 2,053.2 1,022.7 603.0 96.1 33.1 36.5 25.5 31.8 1,030.5 871.6 60.4 67.6 19.0 4.2 48.6 11.3 26.4 12.7 238.7 202.6 132.1 36.1 6.8 85.0 52.8 413.3 316.9 211.7 35.7 96.5 42.1 39.4 10.2 5,353.1 3,144.0 1,221.1 500.8 117.3 158.1 104.8 144.9 2,209.1 1,795.6 164.1 94.6 27.0 6.6 67.7 16.9 54.4 25.8 418.8 382.6 243.0 36.2 8.2 163.9 85.4 767.2 625.7 153.1 24.5 141.5 60.5 17.3 12.3 2,203.5 1,390.3 717.0 205.1 30.0 61.7 32.2 45.5 813.3 678.8 55.3 33.2 10.3 2.6 22.8 6.9 17.9 8.8 140.2 128.1 88.7 12.1 2.7 65.7 39.5 271.2 222.3 403.2 76.5 48.9 22.1 -3 1 8 -3 5 0 -171 -1 5 5 - 93 -1 7 2 -3 0 2 -2 0 4 1-255 -2 5 8 -1 9 2 1-183 K206 ■-281 -2 3 6 -2 5 7 -3 0 0 -2 3 0 -2 1 9 -2 1 5 -239 -2 3 4 -1 8 9 -2 7 2 -236 -2 0 6 -1 9 6 -192 -171 -1 4 9 -1 9 2 -2 6 9 -1 7 9 -3 9 6 -5 0 3 -2 0 1 h 193 —119 |-231 -3 1 1 1-284 -2 9 3 -3 1 3 -2 0 8 -1 9 7 -2 1 5 -3 2 8 -2 7 6 -3 2 5 -3 4 8 -2 8 3 -2 2 8 -2 2 8 -2 6 3 -2 5 7 -2 0 0 -2 9 6 -2 5 1 -2 4 9 -2 5 7 -1 9 8 -1 6 4 -1 3 8 -1 7 8 -3 1 0 -1 8 2 + 128 - 18 -1 4 3 -1 2 6 - 70 -1 4 4 -2 9 2 -1 5 6 -2 2 6 -2 1 9 -1 7 2 -1 6 5 f-196 -1 8 5 -1 6 1 -151 -1 9 6 -1 4 4 -2 0 6 -1 9 8 -1 9 9 -1 9 9 -1 7 4 -1 9 9 -1 9 9 -1 4 9 -1 1 6 -183 -181 -1 6 3 -2 1 3 -1 8 9 -1 7 4 Total Demand Time Twelfth District ........................... ............ 16,045.0 5,674.9 9,153.5 2,925.8 6,891.5 2,749.0 + 184 + 214 + 151 United S t a t e s .................................. ............ 137,108.9 63,688.5 84,997.7 37,707.6 52,111.2 25,980.8 + 115 + 125 + 101 1 Counties with the largest deposits as of December 31, 1947 in all states or areas shown, and all other counties with total deposits over $200 million. July 1948 M O N T H L Y REVIEW 63 BUSINESS INDEXES—TWELFTH DISTRICT (1935-39 average— 1001) I n d u s tr ia l p r o d u c tio n (p h y sic a l v o lu m e )2 Y ear and m o n th P e tr o le u m 4 L um ber* Ad ju ste d 1929_ 1930_ 1 9 3 1_ 1932_ 1933. 1934 _ 1935 _ 1936_ 1937_ 1938. 1939 _ 1940 1941 1942. 1943 _ 194 194 5 _ 1946 1947_ U nad ju ste d 148 C rude R e fin e d U nad ju ste d U nad ju ste d 121 Ad ju ste d U nad ju ste d 106 96 74 48 54 70 100 101 142 141 137 136 109 130 141 93 93 96 103 118 129 135 131 138 139 134 140 142 143 148 154 162 154 153 140 159 154 152 151 133 138 139 139 139 139 140 141 140 243 240 236 254 254 247 246 241 193 186 184 185 193 187 205 215 144 152 149 127r 127 120 137 141 130r 141 141 141 142 143 143 248 251 243 252 257 218 207 216 216 202 204 95 78 74 72 73 77 46 62 67 83 106 113 88 110 120 A 86 89 99 104 U nad ju ste d 110 193 168 140 134 127 123 140 154 163 159 160 158 172 175 194 226 243 219 239 112 g W h eat flo u r C em en t F a cto ry p a y r o lls 5 T o ta l m a n u f a c t u r in e m p lo y m e n t6 E le c t r ic p o w e r Ad ju ste d 88 95 94 96 99 96 107 103 103 104 115 119 132 128 133 117 112 92 114 124 164 194 160 128 131 165 193 C a lifo r n ia tAdju ste d 83 84 82 73 73 79 85 96 105 89 68 U nad ju ste d U nad ju ste d Ad ju ste d U nad ju ste d 111 93 73 54 53 64 78 96 115 100 112 102 112 122 96 104 118 155 230 306 295 229 175 184 136 167 214 231 219 219 256 101 110 134 224 460 705 694 497 344r 401 1947 M a y _______ June_______ Ju ly_______ A u g u s t ___ September O ctober____ N ovem berDecember _. 195 129 138 126 125 123 133 133 116 251 251 252 252 259 260 263 275 253 257 262 263 259 253 258 271 183 182 181 183 184 187 188 188 183 182 181 183 185 187 188 188 392 394 397 407 413 419 421 423 394 396 392 410 412 423 420 423 188 188 199 114 104 220 116 108 278 283 274 274 266 275 278 271 272 2C 8 187 187 187 184 176p 186 186 186 184 176P 418 417 406 396 406 413 415 408 398 408 202 195 201 207 203 199 200 1948 January __ February, M a rch ___ April_____ M a y _____ C a r lo a d in g s (n u m b e r ) Y ear and m o n th Adju ste d 1 9 2 9 ......................... 193 0 193 1 193 2 193 3 193 4 193 5 193 6 193 7 193 8 193 9 194 0 194________________1 194 2 194 3 194 4 _ _ 194 5 194 6 194 7 D e p a r tm e n t s to r e s a le s (v a lu e )2 M e r c h a n d is e and m is c e lla n e o u s T o ta l U nad ju ste d Ad ju ste d U nad ju ste d F a rm , fo r e st, a n d m in e r a l p r o d u c ts6 Ad ju ste d 120 135 116 91 70 70 81 95 78 75 86 91 103 108 96 103 109 96 104 Ad ju ste d P a c if ic N o r th w est U ta h & So. Id aho Ad ju ste d Ad ju ste d Ad ju ste d 140 123 66 74 73 77 86 99 106 101 109 119 139 171 203 223 247 305 330 D e p t, sto r e s to c k s (v a lu e )7 C a li fo r n ia 104 99 91 70 67 104 92 69 96 107 118 136 153 145 146 124 129 147 105 123 128 126 138 140 140 140 U nad ju ste d 112 111 102 110 127 137 133 140 134 135 142 U nad ju ste d D is tr ic t 162 124 85 55 63 71 84 105 112 88 101 101 72 68 86 100 105 225 307 329 109 118 147 189 219 232 252 312 336 106 99 106 115 135 177 232 250 280 348 351 101 110 120 138 164 196 221 100 Ad ju ste d 97 89 83 61 64 77 89 100 105 R e ta il fo o d p r ic e s 8 D is t r ic t U nad ju ste d 134 127 110 86 78 83 U nad ju ste d 1 3 2 .0 1 2 4 .8 1 0 4 .0 8 9 .8 86.8 107 114 137 190 174 178 182 235 295 9 3 .2 9 9 .6 1 0 0 .3 1 0 4 .5 9 9 .0 9 6 .9 9 7 .6 1 0 7 .9 1 3 0 .9 1 4 3 .4 1 4 2 .1 1 4 6 .3 1 6 7 .4 2 0 0 .3 88 96 108 101 1947 M a y _______ June_______ J u ly_______ A u g u s t ____ September . October____ N ovem b e r.. December _. 138 141 141 141 139 141 143 144 136 150 151 151 151 155 139 129 139 142 139 142 138 138 137 137 130 150 150 153 151 156 137 126 137 141 145 140 142 148 153 156 147 151 153 150 152 155 143 134 325 330 327 348 336 333 339 352 302 299 278 308 336 343 410 554 325 332 328 355 338 331 339 357 332 333 332 345 340 348 344 353 340 343 350 361 341 343 360 358 285 282 270 248 257 287 319 342 296 287 286 273 290 318 338 280 1 9 7 .3 1 9 4 .8 1 9 6 .5 1 9 7 .9 2 0 6 .6 2 0 4 .8 2 0 9 .4 2 1 3 .0 141 130 131 130 123 130 124 142 137 130 132 130 132 128 117 124 141 127 134 126 126 119 128 128 339 319 331 353 356 274 288 319 325 331 336 329 334 357 364 349 303 332 347 343 380 321 331 386 365 352 366 380 377 337 310 321 353 372 350 2 1 5 .4 2 1 3 .0 1948 Jan uary,_ February. M a rch ___ April_____ M a y _____ 121 125 121 122 112 121 211.6 2 1 6 .0 2 1 7 .6 * The terms adjusted and unadjusted refer to adjustment of monthly figures for seasonal variation. Excepting department store statistics all indexes are based upon data from outside sources, as follows: Lumber, various lumber trade associations; Petroleum and Cement, U.S. Bureau of Mines* W heat flour U .S. Bureau of the Census; Electric power, Federal Power Commission; Manufacturing employment, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and cooperating state agen cies; Factory payrolls, California State Division of Labor Statistics and Research; Retail food prices, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- and Carloadmffs various railroads and railroad associations. ’ * ’ 2 Daily average. 3 Revised Series. Data for earlier periods, by months, available on request. 1 9 2 3 - 2 5 daily average = 1 0 0 . 6 Excludes fish, fruit and vegetable canning. Factory payrolls index covers wage earners only. • Grain and grain products, livestock, forest products, coal and coke, and ore. A t retail, end of month or end of year. 8 Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Seattle indexes combined. p— preliminary. -revised. * 1 July 1948 FEDERAL RESERVE B A N K OF SA N FRANCISCO 64 BANKING AND CREDIT STATISTICS—TWELFTH DISTRICT (amounts in millions of dollars) C o n d it io n it e m s o f a ll m e m b e r b a n k s 1 Year and m onth T o ta l 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 In v e stm e n ts L o a n s a n d d is c o u n ts C o m l., in d . & a g r ie . 4,658 4,755 4,879 4,997 5,158 5,240 5,363 1948 January February M arch April M ay June 5,413 5,467 5,510 5,509 5,569 5,598 A ll o t h e r R eal e sta te U . S . G o v ’t s e c u r it ie s 647 721 711 635 2,239 2,218 1,898 1,570 1,486 1,469 1,537 1,682 1,871 1,869 1,967 2,130 2,451 2,170 2,106 2,254 2,663 4,068 5,363 1947 June July August September October November December F o r p u r c h ., c a r r y ’g s e c s . 668 670 662 686 730 798 864 931 327 362 399 460 275 663 664 735 933 870 934 956 1,103 1,882 2,338 82 76 65 59 51 62 184 343 195 121 974 899 885 908 1,431 2,153 2,047 134 1,828 649 2,338 121 2,153 750 1,000 211 228 309 560 750 A ll o t h e r s e c u r it ie s 495 467 547 601 720 1,064 1,275 1,334 1,270 1,323 1,450 1,482 1,738 3,630 6,235 8,263 10,450 8,426 7,243 458 561 560 528 510 575 587 614 498 486 524 590 541 538 557 698 795 908 872 7,370 7,375 7,353 7,364 7.361 7.361 7,243 871 874 871 7,264 7,021 6,945 6,943 6,883 6,859 D em and d e p o s it s a d j u s t e d 2*3 1,234 1,158 984 840 951 1,201 1.389 1,791 1,740 1,781 1,983 2.390 2,893 4,356 5,998 6,950 8,203 8,821 8,928 T im e d e p o s it s ( e x c e p t U .S . G o v 't)3 1,776 1,915 1,667 1,515 1,453 1,759 2,006 2,078 2,164 2,212 R eserve b a n k c r e d it6 C o m m e r c ia l o p e r a t io n s 5 T reasu ry o p e r a t io n s 5 C o in a n d c u r r e n c y in c ir c u la t io n 144 307 842 1,442 2,050 303 148 884 872 8,297 8,366 8,462 8,600 8,722 8,797 8,928r 5.908 5,888 5,887 5.909 5,949 5,907 5,988 103 148 208 216 192 205 127 848 833 846 854 863 871 8,854 8,495 8,452 8,461 8,445 8,464 6,006 6,048 6,029 6,004 5,993 6,042 139 190 246 250 240 224 1947 June July August September October November December 1948 January February March April M ay June _ — + _ _ -f + _ + + + + + + — _ — + — + + + + 34 16 21 42 2 7 2 6 1 3 2 2 4 107 214 98 76 9 302 0 — 53 — 154 — 175 — 110 — 198 — 163 — 227 — 90 — 240 — 192 — 148 — 596 - 1 ,980 - 3 ,751 —3 ,534 - 3 ,743 - 1 ,607 443 23 + 89 + + 154 + 234 + 150 + 257 + 219 4- 454 + 157 + 276 + 245 + 420 + 1 ,000 + 2 ,826 + 4 ,486 + 4 ,483 + 4 ,682 + 1 ,329 + 630 21 234 48 87 23 4 25 41 — 213 78 + — 85 — 39 0 5 — + + + + + + 14 20 49 9 30 14 + + + — — 48 153 29 75 14 49 7 381 124 172 35 33 49 _ 253 — 244 — 19 29 + 45 + 28 + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + — — — — + _ — — — + 68 B a n k d e b it s in d e x 31 c i t i e s 7 R eserves6 F .R . n o t e s o f F .R .B . o f S .F . T o ta l R e q u ir e d E xcess 6 16 48 30 18 4 14 38 3 20 31 96 227 643 708 789 545 326 206 189 186 231 227 213 211 280 335 343 361 388 493 700 1,279 1,937 2,699 3,219 2,871 2,639 175 183 147 142 185 242 287 479 549 565 584 754 930 1,232 1,462 1,706 2,033 2,094 2,202 171 180 154 135 142 172 201 351 470 418 459 515 720 1,025 1,343 1,598 1,878 2,051 2,085 4 5 4 8 37 84 100 119 70 142 138 257 245 262 103 104 136 59 70 146 126 97 68 63 72 87 102 111 98 102 110 134 165 211 237 260 298 326 13 23 23 10 16 3 18 2,695 2,669 2,685 2,675 2,656 2,653 2,639 1,992 1,963 2,078 2,095 2,137 2,130 2,202 1,944 1,956 1,985 2,028 2,046 2,059 2,085 51 60 62 80 77 65 70 322 305 322 325 346 344 365 113 2 37 17 26 13 2,541 2,532 2,497 2,477 2,489 2,475 2,113 2,045 2,066 2,048 2,068 2,061 2,086 2,037 2,001 1,998 2,008 2,021 83 57 64 61 48 61 352 354 347 353 342r 348 T o ta l5 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 36 49 99 148 233 228 167 96 90 127 118 2,263 2,351 2,417 2,603 3,197 4,127 5,194 5,781 5,988 M e m b e r b a n k r e serv e s a n d r e la te d it e m s 4 Y ear and m o n th U .S . G o v ’t d e p o s it s 3 U n a d ju sted 1 Annual figures are as of end of year; monthly figures are as of last Wednesday in month or, where applicable, as of call report date. 8 Demand deposits, excluding interbank and U .S. G ov’t deposits, less cash items in process of collection. 1 M onthly data partly estimated. 4 End of year and end of month figures. 5 Changes only. • Total reserves are as of end of year or month. Required and excess: monthly figures are daily averages, annual figures are December daily averages. 7 Debits to total deposit accounts, excluding interbank deposits. 1935-39 daily average = 1 0 0 . p— preliminary. r— revised.
@FedFRASER