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R eview
FEDERAL RESERVE B A N K OF S A N
JULY
FRA N C ISC O
1947
C A SH RECEIPTS FRO M LIV ESTO C K A N D LIV ESTO C K PRODUCTS, 1939-46— TW ELFTH D ISTR ICT
h e
w a r
brought about a great increase in farm pro
Tduction, which, with increasing prices, resulted in a
tremendous increase in cash receipts from farm market
ings. After the war, farm production continued to be
maintained almost at wartime levels, and the gradual
relaxation and final removal of price controls increased
cash receipts from farm marketings in 1946 still further.
T able
1—
P e r c e n t P r oduced i n
the
T w elfth
D is t r ic t o f
T o t a l U n it e d S t a t e s P r o d u c t io n o f L iv e s t o c k a n d
L iv e s t o c k P r o d u c t s ,
1939
and
Commodity
Cattle and calves........................................................................
H ogs ............................. ................................................. ..
Sheep and lam bs......................................................................
W o o l ................................................................................................
Turkeys .........................................................................................
C h ic k e n s.........................................................................................
E g gs .................................................................................................
M ilk (dairy products)............ ..................................................
19461
1939
9.4
3.0
26.3
25.0
21.7
4.8
8.7
8.9
1946
9.7
2.1
21.5
21.6
26.2
5.3
7.9
9.7
1 Based on various reports of U . S. Department of Agriculture on farm pro
duction, 1939 and 1946 ; data for 1946 preliminary and subject to revision.
Twelfth District farmers receive about 10 percent of
the total cash income obtained by United States farmers
for livestock products. The District's share in national
production varies greatly with respect to individual com
modities, as Table 1 shows. The District contributes
between one-fourth and one-fifth of the total United
States production of sheep, wool and turkeys. These
products combined, however, contributed only 5 percent
of District farm income in 1946.
constituted over half of all cash receipts from farm mar-*
ketings.
The picture in the Twelfth District differs on two
counts (Table 2 ). First, District cash receipts from live
stock marketings have been nearer 40 than 50 percent of
the total. Second, the increase over the war years in cash
receipts from crops was much larger than the increase in
receipts from livestock, so that the relative importance of
livestock income declined from 43 percent of total receipts
in 1939 to 36 percent in 1946.1
The importance of livestock varies greatly in different
states of the District. In Nevada and Utah it provides
some three-quarters or more of farm income ; in Califor
nia, Washington, and Arizona, on the other hand, it
provided 35 percent or less of 1946 farm income. In every
state of the District livestock was a less important source
of farmers’ cash income in 1946 than it had been in 1939.
Price rises contributed more to increased
cash receipts than production
The increased cash receipts both from crops and from
livestock and livestock products during the past eight
years were a combined effect of increased production and
increased prices, the latter being much the stronger influ
ence of the two. Exactly comparable composite figures on
crop production and livestock production are not avail
able. The existing data show, however (Table 3 ), that
between 1939 and 1946 production of eight leading Dis-
lota ! receipts from livestock vs. crops
In the United States as a whole, cash receipts from
livestock and livestock products in recent years have
T able
2— T
otal
Cash
1 In addition to cash receipts from farm marketings, gross farm income in
cludes (1) government payments— conservation, rental and benefit, cotton
option, price adjustment, and Sugar A ct paym ents; (2 ) the value of prod
ucts consumed on the farms where they are produced.
M a r k e t i n g s , 1939, 1945, a n d 1946 ; P e r c e n t a g e D i s t r i b u t i o n
1939 a n d 1946; a n d P e r c e n t a g e I n c r e a s e i n C a s h R e c e i p t s f r o m C r o p s
1946 o v e r 1939— T w e l f t h D i s t r i c t b y S t a t e s , a n d U n i t e d S t a t e s 1
R e c e ip t s f r o m F a r m
B e t w e e n C rops a n d L iv e s t o c k ,
1945
and
State
Arizona ...........................................
California .........................................
Idaho ................. ........................
Nevada ..............................................
Oregon ..............................................
U tah ..................................................
W ashington ....................................
T W E L F T H D IS T R IC T
-Total Cash Receipts219463
1939
1945
$
52.2
$
138.9
$
159.0
1,786.5
1,927.9
606.0
247.6
278.6
89.0
30.9
13.3
27.7
317.5
106.1
288.3
45.1
121.0
123.9
539.6
147.0
470.7
$1,058.7
$ 3,080.7
$ 3,377.4
United States
$7,877.0
................................
$20,780.9
$23,933.8
■Percentage Distribution,------ 1939------v
,----- 1946 3---- N
Live
Live
stock
Crops
Crops
stock
55.2
44.8
64.7
35.3
63.3
36.7
69.3
30.7
49.1
50.9
55.0
45.0
13.5
86.5
14.9
85.1
45.1
54.9
54.4
45.6
28.2
71.8
29.3
70.7
67.2
57.6
42.4
32.8
57.0
42.7
43.0
57.3
64.2
44.7
1 Based on Farm Income Situation, U . S. Department of Agriculture (Bureau of Agricultural Econom ics).
2 In millions of dollars.
8A ll 1946 figures preliminary and subject to revision.
35.8
55.3
of
and
Cash
R e c e ip t s
L iv e s t o c k ,
-Percentage Increase/—1945 over 1939-, >-19463 over 1939^
Live
Live
Crops
stock
Crops
stock
212.5
109.0
257.3
139.7
226.4
140.2
248.2
166.2
201.1
156.1
250.6
176.8
183.3
96.5
155.6
128.7
217.8
134.0
261.3
148.4
178.0
164.5
185.8
170.4
267.8
155.5
328.2
183.9*
227.9
142.1
259.5
165.4
169.1
159.9
217.6
193.6
62
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK
T able
of
3—
I n d e x e s of
1946
P r o d u c t io n o f L e a d in g C rops a n d
T able
4—
P r ic e I n d e x e s of F a r m
L iv e s t o c k a n d L iv e s t o c k P r o d u c t s— T w e l f t h D is t r ic t 1
(1935-39 = 100)
-L iv e s to c k -
Twelfth
District
H ay ................................................
W heat ................. _........................
Grapes and raisins....................
Potatoes .......................................
Apples ............................................
O r a n g e s .........................................
Barley ............................................
Cotton ............................................
128.3
160.9
119.1
201.6
112.1
122.4
156.3
89.6
Tvvelfth
District
Commodity
Cattle and calves........................
H ogs ..............................................
Sheep and lam bs........................
W o o l ..............................................
Turkeys .......................................
Chickens .......................................
E g g s ..............................................
M ilk .................................................
127.6
88.6
71.3
66.9
180.9
110.3
133.0
120.5
1 Based on various reports of U . S. Department of Agriculture on farm pro
duction, 1939 and 194 6 ; data for 1946 preliminary and subject to revision.
2 District crops whose value of production in the 1946 crop year (not the
calendar year) was in excess of $100 million (cotton $96.5 million). Their
value of sales, which in such crops as hay and barley is relatively low due
to consumption on farms where they are produced, amounted to about 52
percent of the 1946 cash receipts from all crops in the District.
trict crops rose more than the production of livestock and
livestock commodities.
More important to cash receipts than increased pro
duction was the rise in prices, and here again the effect
on crop income was more favorable than the effect on
livestock income. While the livestock price index (Table
4) declined in 1944 due to price controls, the crops index
rose each year. A number of crops were, for various
reasons, not affected by price controls, or were affected
to only a slight extent. Fruits, truck crops, and cotton,
each an important crop in the Twelfth District, showed
especially marked price increases between 1942 and 1945.
1939-46 changes in production and income, by commodities
Twelfth District production of various types of live
stock and livestock products in the years 1939 through
1946, and cash receipts from them, are shown in Table 5.
The war led to greatly increased production of all live
stock products, except sheep, lambs, and wool. For the
latter, the peak of District production was in 1941. The
country-wide drop in production since 1942, caused by
difficulties in providing herders, uncertainty in the wool
market, and relatively smaller profits in sheep raising
than in other livestock branches, was greater in the
District than elsewhere. District hog production reached
its peak in 1943, when it was 42 percent above 1939, but
output fell in the next three years to only 88.6 percent of
T
able
5— P r o d u c t io n
and
1940-46—
P r o d u cts,
U n it e d S t a t e s 1
(1939 = 100)
-C ro p s 2 Commodity
July 1947
OF SAN FRANCISCO
C a s h R e c eip ts
Production
Cattle and calves3 .....................................................
H o g s3 ................................................................................
Sheep and lambs3 .....................................................
W o o l3 ................................................................................
Turkeys3 .........................................................................
Chickens3 .........................................................................
E g g s4 ................................................................................
M ilk3 ..................................................................................
Cash Receipts5
Cattle and calves ........................................................
H ogs ..................................................................................
Sheep and lambs ........................................................
W o o l ..................................................................................
Turkeys ...........................................................................
Chickens ...........................................................................
E g gs ............................. ....................................................
Milk (dairy products) ..............................................
for
L iv e s t o c k
Commodity
Livestock and
livestock products
1940
1941
Meat a n im a ls ............
Dairy products . . . .
Poultry and e g g s. . .
W o o l .............................
. 96
.
93
, 100
.
88
119
120
123
117
111
147
Food g r a i n s .................
Feed grains and hay.
Fruits .............................
Truck crops .................
. 91
.
89
.
86
.
88
. 108
110
103
94
102
126
129
1942
1943
1944
1945
19462
166
168
167
160
170
174
177
166
180
173
200
175
175
258
207
197
206
215
221
215
195
174
233
182
170
264
219
206
214
215
269
212
290
148
172
159
137
139
166
147
176
163
175
171
189
128
117
137
160
179
157
155
216
240
192
Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Statistics, and monthly reports of U . S. Department of Agriculture (Bureau
of Agricultural Econom ics), Agricultural Prices.
2 Figures preliminary and subject to revision.
1939 quantity. The peak in egg production was reached
in 1944 ; in cattle and calves, milk, turkeys, and chickens,
it occurred in 1945.
The only year in which both production and income
rose for every commodity listed was 1941. The most con
sistent increases occurred in cattle, turkeys, and milk;
these commodities showed rising production and receipts
in every year through 1945 (except that cattle production
fell off in 1943).
In 1946 the production of all livestock products in the
Twelfth District was smaller than in 1945. In some in
stances this was a result of trends previously established
— as in the case of sheep and lambs and wool. In some
cases the decline came from adjustments in production to
bring it more in line with peace-time patterns— as in the
case of hogs and poultry. In some cases there were un
certainties regarding price control which temporarily
affected the marketing of the products— for example,
meat animals. Moreover, the feed supply situation in 1946
was more difficult than in 1945. Despite this general
decline in production, however, cash receipts rose in 1946
for all commodities except turkeys, chickens, and wool.
Importance of commodifies in different states
Examination of Table 6 reveals other details about
livestock as a source of farm income in the Twelfth Disand
L iv e s t o c k P r o d u c ts , 19 3 9 -19 4 6 — T
welfth
D
i s t r ic t 1
1939
1,411.8
513.6
535.9
90.3
104.4
129.1
3,321
9.6
1940
1,474.8
512.7
519.5
87.8
118.1
104.4
3,577
10.4
1941
1,598.9
515.1
560.0
89.1
131.0
123.2
3,638
10.9
1942
1,725.4
604.0
527.5
87.2
138.1
128.9
3,913
11.2
1943
1,698.9
731.2
459.1
78.8
154.9
160.2
4,301
11.2
1944
1,833.1
546.3
424.1
73.2
181.2
115.5
4,711
11.6
1945
1,882.4
412.9
412.2
66.7
246.1
196.0
4,441
11.7
19462
1,819.0
397.2
382.2
60.4
188.8
142.5
4,417
11.6
$125.0
29.6
41.5
19.8
15.0
13.7
48.5
143.6
$130.0
29.0
40.9
24.1
18.7
11.1
50.7
168.3
$157.3
44.1
51.8
29.9
25.5
14.5
70.2
212.5
$212.6
66.8
64.9
34.1
41.1
19.5
95.0
270.2
$232.5
93.3
66.6
31.6
47.5
33.0
133.6
327.8
$265.6
87.1
61.4
30.3
61.5
26.3
129.8
352.2
$336.6
58.2
61.5
27.3
81.1
43.3
141.0
358.0
$361.9
68.2
68.5
24.9
71.3
34.8
145.4
421.9
1 Data from various reports of U . S. Department of Agriculture (Bureau of Agricultural Economics) on farm production and cash receipts. In addition to
the livestock products shown in this table, there are a few minor branches of production (horses, mules, honey, mohair, and the like) which provide a
small percentage of farm income.
2 Figures preliminary and subject to revision.
3 In millions of pounds.
4 Tn millions.
5 In millions of dollars.
July 1947
63
M O N T H L Y R EVIEW
T a b l e 6— P e r c e n t of T o t a l C a s h
R e c e i p t s of A g r i c u l t u r e
D e r iv e d f r o m
L iv e s t o c k a n d
T w e l f t h D is t r ic t b y S t a t e s a n d i n t h e U n it e d S t a t e s ,
Arizona
Commodity
1939 1946
25.1
C attle and c a lv e s ............ 25.5
1.1
.7
H o g s ....................................
3.0
1.2
Sheep and la m b s ............
2.0
.7
W o o l ....................................
.4
.3
T u rk e y s ...............................
.8
.4
C h icken s ................... .........
1.9
1.3
E g g s .................................. ..
7.4
5.8
M ilk (d a iry p r o d u c t s ) ..
T O T A L ......................
42.1
35.5
1939
and
California
1939
1946
10.4
8.6
1.8
1.4
2.3
1.2
.9
.4
1.3
1.7
1.2
1.0
4.4
4.2
12.1
12.5
Idaho
1939
1946
10.7
13.1
3.8
7.1
10.2
6.2
1.6
4.1
.5
.5
1.4
.9
3.2
2.8
13.4
13.1
Nevada
1939 1946
41.3
51.8
2.3
2.7
8.9
15.7
10.0
5.6
.8
1.1
.8
.7
4.4
2.7
11.4
10.3
Oregon
1939
1946
13.1
14.2
4.7
4.1
5.5
2.4
.9
3.1
3.2
4.7
1.2
1.2
3.9
4.7
17.5
14.5
Utah
1939 1946
16.6
18.7
3.6
3.7
13.3
9.0
8.1
4.5
4.4
9.4
1.9
2.4
11.5
8.1
13.4
16.2
34.8
50.3
85.0
52.2
69.4
30.6
42.3
85.5
46.7
75.4
L iv e s t o c k
P roducts, in
the
19461
Washington
1939 1946
8.2
6.5
3.3
2.0
1.9
.8
.8
.3
.7
1.8
1.9
1.0
6.7
4.6
17.7
13.4
Twelfth
District
1939 1946
11.8
10.7
2.8
2.0
3.9
2.0
1.9
.7
1.4
2.1
1.3
1.0
4.6
4.3
13.6
12.5
41.2
41.3
30.4
35.3
United
States
1939
1946
16.4
15.5
10.3
12.4
2.2
1.5
1.0
.5
.9
1.1
2.9
2.6
5.4
6.2
17.2
15.5
56.3
55.3
1 B ased on T a b les 2 and 5. Several state totals d iffer fro m th ose sh ow n in T a b le 2. T h e differen ces arise becau se (1 ) T a b le 2 in clu d es a few m in or livestock p rod u cts om itted from this table, and ( 2 ) there are m in or d iscrep a n cies in the data fro m the v a riou s sou rces used in T a b les 2 and 5. A ll 1946 data
prelim in ary and su b ject to revision.
trict. Individual livestock products varied tremendously
among states as a source of cash income in 1946. Cattle
brought in more than one dollar out of every two received
by Nevada farmers, but only seven percent of the income
of Washington farmers. Eggs were a minor source of
income in most states, but in Utah they accounted for
11.5 percent of total farm cash receipts. Poultry in gen
eral (turkeys, chickens, and eggs combined) brought in
only 2 percent of Arizona farm income, but almost onequarter of Utah income. Sheep raising was of consid
erable importance only in Nevada, Utah, and Idaho.
Dairy products provided between 10 and 17 percent of
income in all states except Arizona, where their impor
tance was much less. Hogs, though of small importance
in any state, were almost seven times as important in
Oregon as in Arizona.
In Utah, five different commodities were of substantial
importance in 1946; in Arizona, on the other hand, only
two commodities produced more than a negligible frac
tion of total cash receipts. Arizona showed a decline in
the importance of all livestock commodities between 1939
and 1946. The only branch of livestock production that
increased in every state (except Arizona) was turkeys.
The only branch that decreased in every state was sheep
raising.
Conclusion
It is clear that the relative importance of livestock com
pared to crops as a source of agricultural income has
declined more sharply in the Twelfth District than in the
rest of the United States. Two reasons may be suggested.
First, there was a tendency for crop income to increase
more than livestock income in the country as a whole.
The former rose 218 percent between 1939 and 1946, and
the latter rose 194 percent. Second, it would appear that
both of the factors— production and prices— that in
fluence cash receipts operated in favor of crops more
strongly in the District than in the rest of the country.
Crop acreage was expanded during the war more in the
District than in the United States, and prices of several
important District crops rose more markedly than prices
in general.
It is too early to say whether this change in the com
position of farm income represents a permanent shift in
the agricultural economy of the District or a temporary
result of changes in production and prices during the war
and early postwar years. Caution is especially needed in
appraising the changes shown in 1946, because changes in
price control policy during that year reduced the quan
tities of certain livestock products marketed— beef, veal,
and pork, for example.
MEMBER BANK LO A N S— TWELFTH DISTRICT
b y real estate and consumer loans, total loans of
JTwelfth District member banks increased 14 percent
during the first six months of 1947 (Table 1). This is a
substantially greater increase than the one that took place
in the country as a whole. In the District, the gain was
much smaller than the gain during the second half of last
year, but a trifle above the gain during the first half of
1946. For every month so far in 1947, total outstanding
loans of District member banks increased. The rate of
increase in May and June was slightly smaller than in
February, March and April.
I
ed
Increases by states
In every state of the District there was an increase in
loans during the first six months of 1947; California and
Utah banks showed the greatest gains. Oregon and
Washington experienced the smallest increase. This was
due largely to the fact that commercial and industrial
loans in these two states declined slightly in contrast to
the gain for the District as a whole, a gain which occurred
largely in California banks. Nevada was the only state
where a significant drop in loans occurred at any time
within this six-month period; at the end of June its loans
had declined 10 percent from the peak at the end of May.
Comparison of first six months of 1946 and 1947
Seasonal factors undoubtedly are responsible for some
of the differences in loan trends among states, but they
do not appear to account for all of them. Comparing loan
trends in the first six months of 1947 with the first six
months of 1946 reveals several such differences. Only
California and Idaho had a larger increase in 1947 than
in 1946. In each of the other states the increase was much
smaller this year than last. In 1946 three states— Arizona,
64
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK
OF SAN FRANCISCO
July 1947
T a b l e 1— A m o u n t o f T o t a l L o a n s o f T w e l f t h D i s t r i c t M e m b e r B a n k s , b y S t a t e s , S e m i - A n n u a l l y
D e c e m b e r 31, 1945 t o J u n e 25, 1947, w i t h P e r c e n t o f I n c r e a s e
—Am ount1State
Arizona . ................. - .........................
California .........................................
Idaho ...................................................
N e v a d a .................................................
Oregon ................................................
U tah .....................................................
W ashington ....................................
T W E L F T H D IS T R IC T .
Dec. 31,
1945
$
55
1,989
43
20
169
74
314
. $ 2,663
June 29,
1946
$
66
2,254
46
25
187
93
357
$ 3,030
89
3,064
61
32
250
109
463
$ 4,068
June 25,
1947
$
99
3,579
66
34
256
128
484
$ 4,646
. $22,775
$23,302
$26,696
$28,497
D ec. 31,
1946
$
-Percent Increase—
Dec. 31, ’45June 29, ’46Dec. 31,
Dec. 31, *46
June 25,
June29, ’46
20.0
34.8
11.2
13.3
35.9
16.8
7.0
32.6
8.2
25.0
28.0
6.3
10.7
33.7
2.4
17.4
25.7
17.2
13.7
29.7
4.5
13.8
2.3
34.3
14.6
14.2
6.7
* I n millions of dollars.
Nevada, and Utah— had loan increases well above the
District increase, and only two states— Idaho and Oregon
— were significantly below the District figure. This year,
by contrast, five states were below the District increase,
and only California and Utah were above it.
Comparison of first and second half of year
In the second six months of 1946 member bank loans
increased much more than they did in the first six months
of either year. This was true not only in the District as a
whole but in the individual states as well. The only ex
ception was Utah, which in the first half of both years
showed the greatest loan expansion of any state in the
District, and in the second half of 1946 the smallest loan
expansion.
There are a number of reasons for the large increase in
loans that occurred in the last half of 1946. Beginning in
June 1946 industrial production increased substantially.
During this period inventory accumulation also continued
at a high rate and the removal of price controls was fol
lowed by a sharp advance in prices. These factors, com
bined with some reduction in the cash position of many
business organizations, resulted in a marked expansion
in total bank loans in the last half of 1946. Their influence
was most pronounced in the case of commercial and
industrial loans, which provided the largest part of the
1946 increase in total District bank loans.
Increases by type of loan
Commercial and industrial loans increased 9 percent in
the first six months of 1947 compared with an increase
of 16 percent in the corresponding period a year ago
(Table 2 ). In 1946 the expansion in commercial and
industrial loans accounted for about 40 percent of the
dollar increase in total loans of District member banks in
the first half of the year and about 60 percent in the
second half. It is estimated, however, that in the first six
months of 1947 the expansion of such loans accounted for
only about one-fourth of the increase in total loans. This
is a reflection of the fact that there has been much less
T a b le 2— P e r c e n t In c r e a se s in L o a n s o f T w e l f t h D is t r ic t
M e m b e r B a n k s B e t w e e n S e m i - A n n u a l D a t e s D e c e m b e r 31,
1945 t o J u n e 25, 1947, b y T y p e o f L o a n
Type of loan
Dec. 31. 1945
to
June 29, 1946
Commercial and industrial............... ....—f-16
Agricultural (except real estate)
—[-16
T o purchase and carry secu rities.. — 28
Real estate..................................................... —1-20
Consumer instalment loans2 . . . . . . -j-45
June 29, 1946
to
Dec. 31, 1946
+55
-f- 2
— 26
—f—31
-{-36
Dec. 31, 19461
to
June 30, 1947
-{- 9
+ 3
— 30
-¡-33
-\-37
1 Estimated.
2 Includes consumer credit extended indirectly through the purchase of in
stalment paper.
change in the volume of commercial and industrial activ
ity so far this year than in the corresponding period a
year ago.
During the first half of 1947 the Federal Reserve index
of industrial production leveled off at about 190 percent
of the 1935-39 average. Although it has declined slightly
since March, the average for the first half of 1947 was
about 17 percent above the average for the corresponding
period in 1946 and 5 percent above that for the last half
of the year.
Real estate loans, on the other hand, increased more
rapidly in the first half of this year than they did in the
first six months of 1946. Most of these are secured by
residential property, and new houses had not started to
come into the market in great volume in the first six
months of last year.
Because of its current high level, it is unlikely that
industrial production will expand during the second half
of this year to the same extent that it did in the last half
of 1946. This situation, together with the marked slowing
down of inventory accumulation, is likely to result in a
smaller expansion in commercial and industrial loans
during the last half of 1947 than occurred a year ago,
although serious upward pressure on prices still persists.
Consequently, consumer and real estate loans are likely
to contribute relatively more to any further expansion in
total loans than they did in the last half of 1946.
It is of interest to note that California has been leading
all other states in the country in the average size of GI
home loans that have been approved since the inception
of the GI loan program. The figures through April 25,
1947 indicate that the average size of loan in California
was $7,750. This was above the average figure in Nevada,
the state in the District having the second highest av
erage, and the average figure in the country as a whole,
by about $2,000. It was $1,000 above the average for
Connecticut, the state having the second highest average
for the entire country.
California leads in G l loans
July 1947
M O N TH LY REVIEW
Although several factors have contributed to the large
difference between the average size of GI home loans in
California and elsewhere, it is not possible to assess accu
rately the relative importance of each one. Lending poli
cies of financial institutions in California may have been
more liberal than in other states ; relatively more new
houses have been constructed ; and a greater wartime
increase occurred in the price of old houses, fully pre
pared lots, and raw land.
Consumer instalment loans increased more than onethird in both the Twelfth District and the United States
65
during the first half of 1947. No other type of bank loan
made as large a gain in the Twelfth District during this
period. The percent gain was not as large, however, as
the increase in these loans in the first half of 1946, a pe
riod during which consumer durable goods began to make
their first postwar appearance in significant quantity.
Agricultural loans (other than real estate) showed a
smaller increase than in the first six months of 1946.
Loans to purchase and carry securities continued their
postwar decline; they have dropped substantially in each
six-month period since December 1945.
66
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK
OF SAN FRANCISCO
July 1947
BUSINESS INDEXES—TWELFTH DISTRICT
1935-39 Average = 1001
In d u stria l p ro d u c tio n
(ph ysical v o lu m e ) 2
Lum ber
Ad
ju s te d
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
U nad
ju s te d
148
112
77
46
62
67
83
106
113
88
110
120
140
140
133
138
108
118
1946
M ay
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
111
l l7 r
107
113
1947
Janua ry
February
March
April
M ay
June
129
137r
120
120
12 2
139
139
133
128
133
12 2
100
155
172
143
132
130
131
124
135
151
151
106
121
C rude
R efin ed
U nad
ju s te d
U nad
ju s te d
121
95
78
74
72
73
86
89
99
104
93
93
96
103
118
129
135
131
C em en t8
Ad
ju s te d
193
168
140
134
127
123
140
154
163
159
160
158
172
175
194
226
243
219
131
132
132
131
131
131
132
133
222
134
136
137
137
138
139
219
227
255
259
267
264
U nad
ju s te d
22 2
229
227
221
Ad
ju s te d
1929
1930
1931
.1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
January
February
March
April
M ay
June
U nad
ju s te d
Ad
ju s te d
112
66
72
85
90
79
85
90
105
113
109
115
108
121
10 2
124
118
126
128
109
109
111
121
136
134
117
12 2
112
107
108
111
109
117
120
112
112
115
124
Ad
ju s te d
121
119
130
131
132
120
146
150
129
130
131
134
122
145
147
140
148
151
134
129
98
97
106
113
109
114
111
123
118
120
120
112
98
104
10 1
110
216
213
222
227
236
237
243
231
227
229
232
240
191r
182r
207r
193r
193
164r
166r
190r
196r
195
174
162
165
173
179r
179
174
162
162
153
158r
157
250
249
252
254
251
246
244
248
252
253
Ad
ju s te d
83
84
10 1
74
90
89
83
91
124
113
103
108
123
142
91
88
93
93
96
90
100
99
84
79
89
93
96
111
98
10 1
U nad
ju s te d
112
212
Pacific
N o r th
w est
U ta h
& So.
Id a h o
Ad
ju s te d
Ad
ju s te d
Ad
ju s te d
109
103
94
72
68
68
77
75
86
100
86
115
106
91
68
66
78
85
oXQ
o
79
87
99
122
134
224
460
705
694
497
339
173
270
363
335
246
177
177 r
180 r
180
184
184
187
192
192
177r
180r
180
185
185
188
193
193
336r
344r
345
362
360
372
372
387
337r
345r
345
364
361
375
373
388
194
192
193
192
190
187
191
191
192
192
190
187
386
387
390
382
392
394
379
384
389
392
394r
396
D is tr ic t
Ad
ju s te d
124
U nad
ju s te d
132
125
111
97
69
72
82
89
99
104
98
110
89
80
85
89
97
108
105
99
106
100
100
109
116
139
169
244
306
109
117
136
160
192
217
242
304
100
110
117
146
189
219
232
252
310
217
237
304
305
315
322
324
313
319
319
317
284
288
266
291
326
330
376
503
300
315
316
311
308
320
325
310
317
310
327
333
312
313
307
329
277
300
331
364
319
301
289
305
217
217
250
240
249
270
296
334
265
263
281
299
313
273
313
330
325
315
323
320
249
278
295
297
301
294
307
317
318
314
321
317
318
352
336
312
332
325
326
335
314
313
279
294
315
330
331
308
287
280
277
290
308
304
298
285
20 1
221
Q‘3
•70
73
54
66
100
105
111
73
61
D e p t, store
stock s (value ) 8
C a li
forn ia
104
94
71
U nad
ju ste d
10 2
112
122
2 10
212
U nad
ju s te d
C a lifo rn ia
Ad
ju s te d
fid
78
96
115
132
147
109
136
154
154
146
166
222
U nad
ju s te d
100
86
136
167
214
231
219
219
132
136
152
147
trict
C aliforn ia
Ad
ju s te d
83
84
82
73
73
79
85
96
105
150
167
124
136
129
130
133
166
86
120
122
125
110
U nad
ju s te d
172r
175r
175r
182r
182r
175r
176r
170r
109
84
57
37
43
48
56
70
75
65
72
79
91
103
97
97
83
90
96
99
116
128
137
138
125
125
125
134
145
Ad
ju s te d
170r
161r
165r
167r
170r
161r
182r
182r
O th e r
10 2
110
111
E lectric pow er
D e p a r tm e n t store sales
(value ) 2
114
105
89
74
70
81
85
97
96
75
57
58
108
113
U nad
ju s te d
U nad
ju s te d
115
107
96 r
74r
48r
54r
70r
68r
117r
112 r
9 2r
114r
124r
164r
194r
160r
1 2 Sr
13 Ir
165r
219
228
234
M erch a n d ise
an d
m isce lla n e o u s
T o ta l
W h e a t flour 3
Ad
ju s te d
110 r
C arload in g s
(n u m b e r ) 3
1946
M ay
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
F a ctory
p a y ro lls 4
P e tr o le u m 3
Y ear
an d
m o n th
Y ear
an d
m o n th
Factory
em p lo y m e n t*
10 1
110
106
113
137
187
172
177
182
238
116
138
174
212
225
221
C on su m ers*
prices 6
A ll
it e m s
Food
U nad
ju s te d
U nadj usted
1 2 1 .8
1 32.0
12 4 .8
1 04.0
8 9 .8
118.1
10 8 .2
9 8 .8
9 3 .6
9 5 .3
9 7 .0
9 7 .9
8 6 .8
1 0 6 .3
1 1 9 .4
1 26.1
12 8 .3
13 1 .7
142.1
9 3 .2
9 9 .6
10 0 .3
10 4 .5
9 9 .0
9 6 .9
9 7 .6
1 0 7 .9
1 3 0 .9
1 43.4
1 42.1
1 4 6 .3
1 67.4
1 3 4 .6
1 3 6 .8
143.1
1 4 5 .7
1 4 7 .7
1 5 0 .6
1 5 6 .2
15 6 .9
1 5 0 .0
1 5 4 .5
1 7 0 .8
176.1
1 7 9 .7
1 8 6 .2
1 9 9 .9
19 8 .4
15 6 .7
15 6 .7
1 5 8 .2
1 5 9 .0
1 5 8 .7
1 9 5 .7
19 3 .5
19 6 .6
1 9 7 .8
1 9 7 .3
1 9 4 .8
1 0 2 .2
1 0 2 .0
1 0 1 .0
1 0 1 .1
1
terms adjusted and unadjusted refer to adjustment of monthly figures for seasonal variation. Excepting department store statistics, all indexes
are based upon data from outside sources, as follows: Lumber, various lumber trade associations; Petroleum and Cement, U.S. Bureau of M ines; W heat flour,
U.&. Bureau of the Census; Electric power, Federal Power Commission; Factory employment, Factory payrolls, and Consumers’ prices, U .S . Bureau of Labor
Statistics and cooperating state agencies; and Carloadings, various railroads and railroad associations.
2 Daily average.
3 1923-25 daily average=100.
4 W age earners only. Excludes fish, fruit and vegetable canning.
6 A t retail, end of month or end of year.
6 Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Seattle indexes combined,
p-preliminary.
r-revised.
67
M O N T H L Y R EVIEW
July 1947
BANKING AND CREDIT STATISTICS—TWELFTH DISTRICT
(amounts in millions of dollars)
C o n d itio n it e m s o f all m e m b e r b a n k s 1
I n v e s tm e n ts 2
L o a n s a n d d isco u n ts
Year
an d
m o n th
T o ta l 2
1946
M ay
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
2,909
3,030
3,184
3,334
3,601
3,794
3,954
4,068
1947
January
February
March
April
M ay
June
4,140
4,254
4,364
4,479
4,558
4,644
A ll o th e r
647
721
711
635
2,239
2,218
1,898
1,570
1,486
1,469
1,537
1,682
1,871
1,869
1,967
2,130
2,451
2,170
2,106
2,254
2,663
4,068
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
C o m l., in d . For p u r c h .,
carry’ g secs. R eal estate
& agrie.
668
670
662
686
663
664
735
933
870
934
956
1,103
1,882
82
76
65
59
51
62
184
343
195
1,283
246
730
798
864
931
1,000
974
899
885
908
1,431
211
228
309
560
411
1,090
560
1,431
195
1,882
327
362
399
460
275
A ll oth e r
secu rities
U .S . G o v ’ t
secu rities
495
467
547
601
720
1,064
1,275
1,334
1,270
1,323
1,450
1,482
1,738
3,630
6,235
8,263
10,450
8,426
458
561
560
528
510
575
587
614
498
486
524
590
541
538
557
698
795
908
10,090
9,673
9,651
9,624
9,171
9,157
8,815
8,426
867
861
882
8,303
8,058
7,909
7,677
7,662
7,425
911
893
894
876
862
888
900
891
889
908
T im e
D em and
d eposits
d eposits
(except U .S .
a d ju s te d 3-4
G o v ’ t) 4
1,234
1,158
984
840
951
1,776
1,915
1,667
1,515
1,453
1,759
2,006
2,078
2,164
1,201
1.389
1,791
1,740
1,781
1,983
2.390
2,893
4,356
5,998
6,950
8,203
8,821
2,263
2,351
2,417
2,603
3,197
4,127
5,194
5,781
8,339
8,328
8,488
8,566
8,630
8,757
8,801
8,821
5,404
5,494
5,521
5,570
5,609
5,669
5,696
5,781
8,704
8,367
8,327
8,334
S,260r
8,285
5,761
5,804
5,820
5,837
5,851
5 ,883r
2,212
U .S . G o v ’ t
d e p o sits 4
36
49
99
148
233
228
167
96
90
127
118
68
144
307
842
1,442
2,050
303
1,635
1,213
1,125
1,122
853
808
610
303
308
370
396
286
235
118
M e m b e r b a n k reserves an d related it e m s 5
Y ear
and
m o n th
C oin an d cu rrency
in circu lation
Reserve
b an k cred it 6
C o m m e rcia l
o p era tio n s 6
T reasu ry
operations®
T o ta l 8
— 34
— 16
+ 21
— 42
—
2
—
7
+
2
+
6
—
1
—
3
+
2
+
2
+
4
+107
+214
+ 98
— 76
+
—
53
— 154
— 175
— 110
— 198
— 163
— 227
—
90
— 240
— 192
— 148
— 596
— 1,980
— 3,751
— 3,534
— 3,743
— 1,607
+
23
+
89
+ 154
+ 234
+ 150
+ 257
+ 219
+ 454
+
157
h 276
- 245
- 420
- 1,000
-2,826
-4,486
-4,483
-4,682
hi,329
1946
M ay
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
—
+
+
+
—
—
+
+
34
35
U
28
26
162
74
37
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
+
272
73
15
29
136
37
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
1947
January
February
March
April
M ay
June
+109
+ 14
— 62
—
2
+ 34
— 21
—
—
—
—
+
+
35
25
3
69
96
90
+
+
-
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
9
0
177
2
___
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
—
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
—
6
16
48
30
18
4
14
38
3
20
31
96
227
643
708
789
545
326
220
—
11
55
128
95
—
—
52
42
20
223
111
62
168
133
50
47
61
138
—
—
—
+
—
—
—
—
+
0
F .R . n o te s of
F .R .B . o f S .F .
189
186
231
227
213
211
280
335
343
361
388
493
700
1,279
1,937
2,699
3,219
2,871
2,984
2,931
2,894
2,890
2,878
2,875
T o ta l
175
183
147
142
185
242
287
479
549
565
584
754
930
1,232
1,462
1,706
2,033
2,094
1,955
2,038
2,000
7
2,871
2,045
2,005
2,040
2,092
2,094
81
32
30
18
2,800
2,765
2,735
2,716
2,714
2,695
2,081
1,981
2,003
1,997
1,993
1,992
9
2
2
10
13
2,866
B an k debits
index
31 citie s 5
R eserves 7
R equired
Excess
171
ISO
154
135
142
172
20 1
—
U n a d ju ste d
4
5
4
146
126
97
8
68
37
84
63
72
87
100
351
470
418
459
515
720
1,025
1,343
1,598
1,878
2,051
119
70
142
138
257
245
262
103
104
136
59
1,900
1,929
1,936
1,958
1,987
77
84
10 2
111
98
10 2
110
134
165
211
237
260
298
2,030
2,051
54
55
56
54
59
281
307
291
292
306
310
313
339
2,043
1,982
1,940
1,934
1,934
1,944
60
51
61
63
59
51
322
325
332
309
297
322
2,002
66
1 Annual figures are as of end of year; monthly figures are as of last Wednesday in month or, where applicable, as of call report date.
2 M onthly data for 1946 partly estimated.
3 Demand deposits, excluding interbank and U .S. G ov’t deposits, less cash items in process of collection.
4 M onthly data partly estimated.
6 End of year and end of month figures.
8 Changes only.
7 Total reserves are as of end of year or month. Required and excess: monthly figures are daily averages, annual figures are December daily averages.
8 Debits to total deposit accounts, excluding interbank deposits. 1935-39 daily average=100.
p-preliminary.
r-revised.
68
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK
OF SAN FRANCISCO
July 1947
National Sum mary of Business Conditions
MEMBER BANK RESERVES AND RELATED ITEMS
Released July 30, 1947— Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
production declined somewhat further in June and the early part of July.
Value of retail trade continued to show little change, after allowance for seasonal
changes. Prices of commodities traded in the organized markets generally advanced and
prices of coal and iron and steel were increased.
I
n d u s tr ia l
I n d u s t r i a l P r o d u c t io n
Wednesday figures, latest shown are for
July 23, 1947.
CONSUMERS* PRICES
Total output of manufactures and minerals, as measured by the Board’s seasonally
adjusted index, which reached a postwar peak of 190 percent of the 1935-39 average in
March, had declined to 183 by June and a further reduction is indicated in July.
Durable goods production continued to decline slightly in June, reflecting mainly
further small reductions in demand for various metals and metal products and building
materials. Automobile passenger car production, however, which has been limited by the
available supply of steel sheets, increased in June. In July the rate of automobile produc
tion was reduced again, reflecting partly a temporary curtailment in supplies of steel.
Production of steel was curtailed in the early part of July as a result partly of uncer
tainties surrounding the signing of a new wage contract in the bituminous coal industry,
but at the end of July steel operations again were scheduled at a rate of 94 percent
of capacity.
Contraction in nondurable goods production continued in June, reflecting chiefly earlier
declines in domestic demands for these goods as well as some slackening in export
demands. Further reductions in output in the textile industry accounted for most of the
decline in June, but there were also decreases in activity in most other nondurable goods
lines except meat-packing, petroleum refining, and newsprint consumption.
Production of minerals decreased somewhat in June as a decline in production of
bituminous coal more than offset gains in output of anthracite and crude petroleum.
E m ploym ent
Employment in most types of nonagricultural establishments continued to show little
change in June, after allowance for seasonal changes. Further reductions in employment
in the textile and rubber industries were offset by increased employment in automobile
plants and in some nonmanufacturing lines.
Bureau of Labor Statistics’ indexes. “ All items”
includes house furnishings, fuel, and miscella
neous groups not shown separately. Mid-month
figures, latest shown are for June 1947.
CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS AWARDED
C o n s t r u c t io n
Value of construction contracts awarded, as reported by the F. W . Dodge Corporation,
declined 10 percent from May to June, reflecting chiefly a further decrease in awards
for most types of private construction. Awards for public construction, following in
creases in earlier months of the year, showed little change. New dwelling units started,
according to preliminary estimates of the Bureau of Labor statistics, continued to increase
in June and amounted to 75,000 units as compared with 65,000 in June 1946.
D is t r ib u t io n
Department store sales in June and the first three weeks of July showed about the
usual seasonal decline and were 6 percent greater than in the same period last year.
The Board’s seasonally adjusted index of sales was about 290 percent of the 1935-39
average in May and June as compared with 270 during the first four months of the year.
Value of sales at most other retail stores, after allowance for seasonal changes, has been
slightly lower in recent months than during the first quarter of the year.
Despite a marked expansion in grain shipments in June and the early part of July,
total loadings of railroad revenue freight declined considerably, reflecting the temporary
curtailment in coal shipments in this period and a further decline in shipments of
manufactured goods.
~
^
C o m m o d it y P r ic e s
F . W . Dodge Corporation data for 37 Eastern
States. Nonresidential includes awards for build
ings and public works and utilities. Monthly fig
ures, latest shown are for June 1947.
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Prices of commodities traded in the organized markets generally advanced somewhat
in June and the early part of July. Prices of coal, pig iron, and various steel products
were also increased in this period. Wholesale prices of chemicals and some other products
were reduced. Toward the end of the month prices of wheat and cotton declined con
siderably.
Retail prices of foods increased somewhat in June and the consumers’ price index of
the Bureau of Labor statistics, at 157 percent of the 1935-39 average, was slightly above
the March peak.
*
T r e a s u r y F i n a n c e a n d B a n k C r e d it
On July 2, the Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve System
directed the Federal Reserve Banks to terminate the policy of buying all bills offered at
the fixed rate of Y& percent and to terminate the repurchase option privilege on Treasury
bills; the new policy applied to bills issued on or after July 10. The average rates bid on
the weekly bill offerings rose to .74 percent for the issue of July 24.
Additions to monetary gold stock during June and the first three weeks of July,
together with a return flow of currency from circulation during July following a seasonal
increase prior to July 4, resulted in a growth in member bank reserve balances. Required
reserves increased, reflecting a further growth in deposits at member banks.
Federal Reserve index. Monthly figures, latest
show'n is for June 1947.
Commercial and industrial loans at banks in leading cities outside New York increased
somewhat between early June and mid-July, following a decline which had been in
progress since early April. Real estate and consumer loans continued to increase. Govern
ment security holdings at banks in leading cities increased by over 600 million dollars
between June 4 and July 16 with most of the additions at New York City banks.
@FedFRASER