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MONTHLY REVIEW OF B U S IN E S S C O N D I T I O N S JOHN PERRIN, Chairman of the Board and Federal Reserve Agent Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Vol. IX San Francisco, California, January 20, 1925 No. 1 SU M M A R Y OF N A T IO N A L CONDITIONS Production and employment in December continued the increase which began in the autumn, and wholesale prices advanced further to the highest level for the year. Railroad shipments of goods continued in large volume, and trade, both at wholesale and retail, was larger than a year ago. Production. The index of production in basic industries advanced about 10 per cent in De cember to a point 25 per cent higher than last summer, but was still below the level of the opening months of 1924. Practically all of the 22 industries included in the index shared in the advance, and increases were particularly large in iron and steel, common manufactur ing, coal mining, and meat packing. Among the industries not represented in the index, the output of automobiles declined in December, and was the smallest for any month in more than two years. Increased industrial activity was accompanied by an advance of about 2 per cent in factory employment, with larger in creases in the metal and textile industries, and by a growth of nearly 5 per cent in total factory payrolls. Volume of building, as measured by contracts awarded, was less in December than in November, but continued unusually large for the season of the year. Trade. Distribution of goods was greater in December, 1924, than in the same month of 1923, as indicated by larger railroad shipments and increases in the volume of wholesale and retail trade. Christmas trade at department stores was greater than in the previous year, and sales by mail order houses and chain stores were the largest on record. Wholesale trade was seasonally less than in November, but in practically all lines was larger than a year ago. Marketing of agricultural products was greater than for the corresponding month of any re cent year. Prices. Further advance of more than 2 per cent in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' index of wholesale prices carried the average in De cember 8 per cent above the low point of June, and to the highest level since April, 1923. Prices of all groups of commodities were high, the principal increase being in farm products PER CENT PE R C E N T P rodu ction in B a sic Industries — Index of 22 basic commodities corrected for seasonal variation ( 1 9 1 9 = 1 0 0 ) . Latest figure, December, 117. W h olesale P rices — Index of U . S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (1 91 3 = 100, base adopted by Bureau). Latest figure, December, 157. T h o s e d e s i r i n g t h i s r e v ie w s e n t t h e m r e g u la r ly w i ll r e c e iv e it w it h o u t c h a r g e u p o n a p p lic a t io n . 2 M ON TH LY REVIEW OF BUS. and feeds. In the first half of January, prices of grains, <wool, coal, and metals increased further, while sugar, dairy products, silk, coke, and rubber declined. Bank Credit. At the Federal reserve banks the rapid return flow of currency after the holi day trade resulted, during the four weeks end ing January 21st, in a reduction of earning Ja n u a ry , 1925 ^ _)NDITIONS which have declined for more than two months, were about $175,000,000 below the level of last autumn, and in about the same amount as at the middle of 1924. Net exports of gold, which gave rise to a demand for reserve bank credit, amounted to $30,000,000 in December, and were in large volume during the first three weeks in January. The growth of demand deBJLUONS OF DOLLARS \ , k v Earning Assets j / w ^V \*1 “ f y S »/ * J J W v i r Ki iU 1 # ■ n n N » U.S.Sech . and Acceptances V 1922 1923 y y 1924* 1925 D epartm ent Store S a le s — Index of 333 stores in 117 cities ( 1 9 1 9 = 1 0 0 ) . R e se rv e B ank C red it — W e e k ly figures for 12 Federal Reserve Banks. Latest figures, December, with correction, 127, without correction, 207. Latest figure, January 21. assets about equal to that for the same season a year earlier. The net outflow of currency from the reserve banks during the month pre ceding Christmas amounted to more than $200,000,000, and the return flow after the Christmas peak, reflected both in the increase in reserves and in the decline of Federal re serve note circulation, was in excess of $300,000,000. Fluctuations in the earning assets of the reserve banks during the past two months have reflected chiefly these seasonal changes in the demand for currency. The decline in discounts brought their total on January 21st to a smaller volume than at any time in 1924, and acceptances also showed a seasonal de crease. Holdings of United States securities, posits at member banks in leading cities dur ing the three weeks ending in the middle of January, which has been greater than the in crease in their total loans and investments, has reflected the return of currency from circu lation. In the same period there was some in crease in commercial loans and a continued growth in loans secured by stocks and bonds. Holdings of investment securities have de creased somewhat since the middle of Novem ber, particularly at banks in New York City. Firmer conditions in the money market during December and the first few days in January were followed later in the month by declines in rates on commercial paper to 3 /4 per cent. T W E L F T H F E D E R A K R E SE R V E DISTRICT CONDITIONS Agricultural Activities ! *;*, /within moderate limits. The low temperatures „ ,, , •*V 1i * •.•*afîthe year-end were followed by rainfall and ^ Severe cold weatherv^cerfapamed by storms weather, which improved soil condim many sections *qf,.the district, retarded # tiohV £frd stimulated growth of grasses on normal seasonal, agricultural o£>erat/cyi 3 ûrl £ g j livesto^k’ castures and ranges, late December early Janûafyv Ckt'iis’.frui*. : Preliminary estimates of the United States crops in Southern‘California were damaged by Departriuaft *of Agriculture indicate that the frost, and considerable at#çûn^àn<l fetjnrç s^iall. .jc ç e ^ e of.‘Vinter wheat planted in this dislosses of livestock on op&ri ¿-alnge.s Inter-: ; ttfcVfduring the autumn of 1924 was approximountain States and parts of the Pacific Nortfi’ * * mately 6 per cent smaller than in the previous west were reported. No accurate estimate of year, a considerable reduction in Washington the damage sustained in either case can yet be and Idaho more than offsetting a reported in made, but it is known that prompt orchard crease in Oregon. The acreage this year is 2.1 heating in the citrus groves and heavy feed per cent larger than the average of the past ing of livestock on open ranges kept losses five years. Moisture and soil conditions in the BIN J a n u a ry , 1925 _RAL RESERVE AGENT AT SAN FRANCISCO district generally have favored the new crop, although growth has been retarded somewhat by recent cold weather. During the first half of the 1924-1925 mar keting season, relatively heavy sales of the district’s crops were encouraged by advancing prices and an active demand for the majority of farm products. This was particularly true of the grain crops, of which this district’s pro duction in 1924 was approximately one-half that of 1923 and considerably below the aver age of the past five years. Present stocks of grain in the district are reported to be un usually small. Livestock, particularly beef cattle, calves, and hogs, also have been mar keted in large volume, but in this case rising feed prices and the necessity for reducing hold ings, rather than a favorable market, have in fluenced the volume of sales. Total receipts of cattle and calves at eight markets of the dis trict during the calendar year 1924 were 14.4 per cent larger than during 1923 and 16.9 per cent above the average for the four-year period 1921-1924. Receipts of hogs at the same markets during 1924 exceeded receipts during 1923 and the four-year average of 1921-1924 by 19.2 per cent and 37.4 per cent, respectively. Shipments of all classes of livestock appear to have followed normal seasonal trends during December, 1924, a slight decline for the month being noted in all but hog receipts, which in creased slightly. Increases in butter production, which have come with rapid expansion during the past three years in the dairy industry, resulted in maintenance of cold storage stocks of butter during 1924 at levels well above those of the previous year or the average for the five years 1920-1924. In Table “A ” there are presented compara tive figures indicating the movement to mar ket of certain of the district’s important crops, fig*ures of market receipts of livestock, and of cold storage holdings of butter and eggs. Wool buyers are reported to have been active in the principal wool growing sections of this district during the past two months. Field reports indicate that from 25 to 50 per cent of the expected 1925 clip has already been sold by contract at prices ranging from 40 to 53 cents per pound to the grower. Not since late in 1919 and early in 1920 has contracting for sale of the district’s wool clip been so active nor have prices paid producers been so high. The price paid growers for wool during the 1923-1924 season ranged from 33 to 40 cents per pound. Industrial Activity A tendency toward increasing industrial ac tivity in December, 1924, marked the close of a year during which production, while not maintained at levels as high as in 1923, was nevertheless above the average of recent pre vious years. Of primary importance in the maintenance of activity in industry was the continuance of an unusually large volume of building con struction. In most sections of the district the number and value of building permits issued during 1924 were greater than in 1923, but a slight decrease in these figures was reported for the district as a whole, due to a sharp de cline in building construction in Southern Cali fornia, where a building movement of unusually large proportions had been in progress during the previous year. Figures for 20 principal cities totaled for the year 1924 show a decline of 4.9 per cent in number of building permits issued and 6.6 per cent in their value as com pared with the record year 1923. During De cember, 1924, the value of permits issued in these cities was 10.0 per cent greater than during November, 1924, a larger than seasonal increase, but 14.1 per cent less than in Decem ber, 1923. In making comparisons of values both for the year and month, however, some allowance must be made for changes in costs of building material and labor during the periods covered. According to the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics’ index, build ing materials prices averaged 7.9 per cent lower during 1924 than during 1923, and total costs of construction including building ma terials and labor are estimated to have been 2.5 per cent lower than in the previous year. Recent trends of activity in the building in dustry in this District, as shown by monthly (A) Agricultural Marketing Activity— (-------E x ports--------— C a rlot Shipm ents W heat* Barley* A p p le s* Portland and San 12th O ranges? Lem ons§ Puget Sound F ra n cis co D ist. C a lif. C a lif. M on th ly D ecem b er, N ovem ber, D e ce m b e r , (1000 bu.) 1 9 2 4 .............................................. 1 9 2 4 ............................................... F iv e -Y e a r A v e r a g e ............ 1,993 4,364 2,334 (lOOObu.) 61 1,229 569 (cars) (cars) (cars) 3,282 7,780 4 ,0 3 5 t 3,206 4,160 4,004 598 643 432 C um ulative T o D e c e m b e r 31, 1 9 2 4 ................................ ✓------------------------- C r o p Y e a r ------------------------- % 15,607 6,694 31,694 7,366 1,241 (2 2 .3 ) (3 6 .0 ) (6 8 .9 ) T o D e c e m b e r 31, 1 9 2 3 ................................ 18,726 7,339 44,547 7,200 990 L iv e s to c k R eceipts Cold Storage Holdings** at Eight M ark ets in 12th D istrict 12th D istrict C attle Butter Eggs and (1000 (1000 C a lves H ogs Sheep lb s .) cases) 115,967 295,810 189,294 1,589 12 127,663 228,076 221,678 3,621 125 99,706$ 228,775$ 203,708$ 1,384 27$ r - ---------- C alend ar Y e a r --------------N 1,301,527 2,675,805 3,198,301 1,137,240 2,245,497 3,103,283 829 1,113,641$ 1,947,517$ 3,070,958$ F ig u r e s in p a re n th e s e s in d ica te p e r c e n ta g e o f n e w c r o p o n ly . * S e a s o n b e g in s J u ly 1st. § S e a s o n b e g in s N o v e m b e r 1st. f T h r e e -y e a r a v e ra g e . $ F o u r -y e a r a v e ra g e . F iv e -Y e a r A v e r a g e t o D e c e m b e r 31. . . ________ (13.1) (15.8) (67.8) 15,828 (1 3 .8 ) 8,354 (2 0 .0 ) 3 5 ,1 7 5 f (6 5 .8 ) 6,086 * * A t en d o f m o n th . M O N TH LY REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS and year-to-date comparisons of building per mit figures for 20 cities, are indicated in the following table: D ecem b er N ovem ber O c t o b e r .S e p te m b e r . A u g u s t . .J u ly .......... June . . . . M a y ..........A p r il M arch . . . F e b r u a r y .. J a n u a r y ... M o n th in 1924 com pared with sam e M o n th in - 1923 M on th ly Y e a r -to -d a te N o. V a lu e N o. V a lu e - 1 1 .0 % — 1 4 .1 % — 4 .0 % — 6 .6 % - 2 1 .9 % — 5 .9 % — 4 .3 % — 5 .8 % - 1 9 .5 % — 2 0 .1 % — 2 .5 % — 5 .8 % 1 .4 % 9 .6 % — 0 .1 % — 3 .9 % - 0 .2 % — 1 5 .1 % — 0 .3 % — 5 .4 % - 5 .5 % — 3 .4 % — 0 .4 % — 3 .8 % - 1 5 .6 % — 2 8 .5 % 0 .5 % — 3 .8 % -1 2 .6 % — 1 8 .7 % 3 .7 % 1 .9 % - 2 .2 % — 2 .4 % 8 .2 % 8 .1 % 1 .5 % — 2 .1 % 1 2 .1 % 1 2 .1 % 2 6 .3 % 1 8 .5 % 1 9 .3 % 2 2 .5 % 1 2 .6 % 2 7 .0 % 1 2 .6 % 2 7 .0 % M o n th in 1924 com pared with preceding M on th N o. V a lu e - 7 .9 % 1 0 .0 % - 2 0 .7 % — 9 .6 % - 4 .3 % — 6 .4 % 1 0 .1 % — 1 .5 % 1 2 .1 % 1 1 .4 % 3 .5 % 9 .3 % - 8 .9 % — 1 1 .6 % - 1 1 .5 % — 7 .6 % - 8 .7 % — 1 2 .2 % 1 1 .0 % 1 5 .1 % 5 .1 % 2 .8 % 1 4 .9 % — 9 .3 % Production of lumber during 1924 was not far below the record levels of 1923, and, even though market conditions were unfavorable during a large part of the year, shipments con tinued in sufficient volume to prevent signifi cant increases in mill stocks. The total cut for the year at approximately 200 reporting mills was 8,011,164,000 board feet, which compares with a 1923 cut of 8,672,183,000 board feet and a five-year (1920-1924) average cut of 6,670,427,000 board feet. Shipments of these mills totaled 7,737,852,000 board feet during 1924; compared with 8,067,795,000 board feet shipped in 1923 and five-year (1920-1924) average shipments of 6,179,924,000 board feet. M I L L I O N S OF B O A R D F E E T 600 600 400 2 0 0 19 23 19 2 4 Production of copper and lead was respec tively 12.0 per cent and 8.4 per cent larger during 1924 than during 1923, the active de mand and rising prices for these metals during the latter half of 1924 being responsible for the increased output. District production of silver was smaller in volume during 1924 than during 1923, the figures for the earlier year reflecting, in part, an excessively high rate of production maintained during the first half of the year, while the government was still purchasing silver at a fixed price of $1.00 per ounce under the terms of the Pittman Act. Production of gold was also less in volume during 1924 than during 1923, partly due to a shortage of water in California which prevented normal opera tion of gold dredges in that state. Figures of district and national production, as estimated by the United States Geological Survey, follow: U nit C o p p e r . .l b . L ead . . . l b . Z in c . . . . l b . S ilv e r . . o z . d o lla rs G o ld d o lla rs D e c ., 1924N o v ., 1924 D e c ., 1923 N o v ., 1923 (board feet) (board feet) (board feet) (board feet) P r o d u c t io n .......................... 447 072 554,406 491,780 666,753 S h ip m en ts ........................... 508,951 513,569 467,229 574,877 O rd e rs ................................... 578,991 623,446 512,238 572,966 U n fille d O rd e rs ............... 522 ,314 445,126 497,183 462,251 N o . o f M ills R e p o r t in g . 180 183 193 203 /------ T w e lfth D istrict*-------. f------------ U n ited 1924 1923 1924 1,056,585,800 942,979,321 1,583,056,000 533 ,935 ,00 0 492,735,093 1.176.000.000 46,904,000 56,474,747 1.272.000.000 44,390,950 48,652,392 6 4.084.000 29,717,513 39,892,686 43,540,369 26,940,600 28,407,228 51.912.000 S ta te s 1923 1 ,4 8 3,410,000 1 ,091,182,000 1 ,2 2 0,788,000 65,3 3 8 ,0 0 0 60,134,839 51,734,000 ^ In c lu d in g all o f A r iz o n a . There were 230,063,117 barrels of petroleum produced in) California during 1924, a decrease of 12.8 per cent, or 33,665,778 barrels, from the record output of 263,728,895 barrels in 1923. Production, although declining during the year, was still greater than consumption, and stored stocks, at 97,829,374 barrels on Decem ber 31, 1924, were 5,904,231 barrels (6.4 per cent) larger than on January 1, 1924. During December, 1924, average daily pro duction of petroleum increased for the first time (excepting April, 1924) since September, 1923, but at 606,294 barrels was 14.2 per cent less than in December, 1923. Stored stocks con tinued the increase which has been in progress during the last two and one-half years. Current and comparative figures of the petroleum industry in California follow : PETROLEUM Indicated A v era ge Stored A v era ge D aily S to ck s at D aily C on su m p tion End of P rodu ction (Shipm ents) M on th L u m b er P rodu ction , O rd e rs R e ce iv e d , and Shipm ents in T w elfth F ed eral R e se rv e D istrict as R ep orted by F ou r L u m ber A ss o c ia tio n s, 1923-1924 During December, 1924, greater than sea sonal curtailment of production was reported due to unfavorable weather in the Pacific Northwest. Domestic lumber markets were seasonally active during the month, and ship ments continued heavy in the face of declining production. Unfilled orders on the books of the mills at the close of the month were 17.3 per cent larger than one month ago and 5.1 per cent larger than one year ago. Figures follow (000 omitted): Ja n u a ry , 1925 (barrels) D e c ., N o v ., S e p t., D e c ., 1 9 2 4 .. . 1 9 2 4 .. . 1923*. . 1 9 2 3 .. . 606,294 592,234 858,750 706,427 * P e a k o f p r o d u c t io n . (barrels) (barrels) 572,269 534,107 97,829,374 96,77 4,598 Î 89,274,244 t t f— N e w W e lls ■—s ]N u m ber O pen ed 72 62 93 134 D a ily P rodu c tion (barrels) 46,800 33,130 139,960 84,364 $ C o m p a r a b le fig u re s Output of flour during 1924, as reported by 16 large milling companies representing ap proximately 65 per cent of the milling capacity of the district, was 22.9 per cent smaller than in 1923 and 1.9 per cent smaller than the aver age output for the four-year period 1921 to 1924, inclusive. During the first half of 1924, mills operated at or above the high levels of 1923, but a substantial decrease in activity took place during the last six months of the year, a Ja n u a ry, 1925 FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT SAN FRANCISCO period of rapid advance in price of wheat, and of unsettled markets for flour. Curtailment of production by the mills appears to have main tained an approximate balance between supply of and demand for flour, and stored stocks have remained at normal seasonal levels dur ing recent months. The industry has been slow to accumulate stocks of wheat on the recent rising wheat market, stocks of 16 reporting companies, at 2,927,762 bushels on January 1, 1925, being 25.0 per cent and 7.9 per cent smaller than one year ago and the five-year average for January 1st, respectively. Twelfth District production of flour during December, 1924 (530,949 barrels) was 31.5 per cent greater than in November, but 27.9 per cent less than in December, 1923. Increased production during the past month was in re sponse to a growth in demand in domestic flour markets. Foreign demand for flour con tinued sluggish during December. Figures for the 16 reporting milling companies follow: O u tp u t ( b b l s . ) ____ S to c k s * F lo u r ( b b l s . ) . . . W h e a t ( b u . ) ____ D e c ., 1924 530,949 548,550 2,927,762 N o v ., 1924 403,681 503,371 2,734,512 * A s o f the first d a y o f th e f o llo w in g m o n th . D e c ., 1923 736,300 F iv e -Y e a r A v e ra g e ! D e c. 514,138 569,430 2,927,762 5 District during the greater part of the year 1924 was less than in 1923, but at no time did a serious unemployment situation develop. General Business and Trade General business activity increased by more than the usual seasonal amount during Decem ber, 1924, reaching the relatively high level of December, 1923. If allowance be made for normal annual growth in the volume of busi ness transacted, however, the total for Decem ber, 1924, was slightly below an estimated normal. Debits to individual accounts (bank debits) at banks in 20 principal clearing house centers, the best single available measure of total volume of trade, were 11.5 per cent larger dur ing December, 1924, than during November, 1924, and 0.6 per cent smaller than during De cember, 1923. The total of bank debits at these cities during the year 1924 was 2.0 per cent larger than during the year 1923 (seeTable “ C”). M IL L IO N S OF D O L L A R S 515,636 3,177,942 fl9 2 0 -1 9 2 4 . The volume of canned fruit packed in Cali fornia during the 1924 canning season was smaller than in any of the previous five years, excepting 1921. The figures for both canned fruits and vegetables follow: 1924 1923 1922 (cases) (cases) (cases) F ru its . .. .1 0 ,3 6 2 ,9 9 8 11,351,536 15,477,865 V e g e ta b le s . 7,138,959 7,800,835 6,931,371 T o t a ls 1921 F iv e -Y e a r A v e ra g e 1919-1923 (cases) (cases) 8,511,851 12,084,104 2,615,947 5,926,324 ..1 7 ,5 0 1 ,9 5 7 19,152,371 22,391,236 11,127,798 18,010,428 Canned fruit markets, both domestic and foreign, have been active during the past six months, and unsold stocks held by packers are reported to be small in volume for this season of the year. The volume of employment in the Twelfth (B) Building Permits— B e r k e l e y .................... B o is e .......................... F r e s n o ...................... L o n g B e a ch .......... L o s A n g e le s .......... . O a k la n d ................... O gden ...................... P a sa d e n a ................ P h o e n ix ................... P o r t l a n d .................... R e n o ........................... S a c r a m e n to ............ S alt L a k e C it y . . . . San D ie g o ............... San F r a n c is c o . . . S an J o s e .................. S eattle ...................... S p o k a n e .................... S tock ton ................. T a c o m a ...................... D is t r ic t ................ . D e ce m b e r, 1924 V a lu e N o. 276 $ 705,651 10,581 23 633,280 68 1,793,176 401 3,486 11,923,961 3,227,514 851 314,000 10 288 1,245,976 101,764 75 1,890,190 819 5,200 7 452,361 159 40 219,666 1,242,790 620 5,519,031 763 402,735 81 594 843,745 304,925 105 77 210,695 431,460 166 8,909 $31,478,701 D e ce m b e r, 1923 N o. V a lu e 189 $ 601,600 30 37,215 142,940 126 342 1,255,104 4,721 20,758,194 874 2,583,312 263,500 18 332 551,314 149,515 59 886 1,452,860 15,050 6 205 607,633 59 293,300 1,047,301 410 746 4,952,444 83 114,030 617 1,060,930 76,622 81 116 351,725 212 341,796 10,112 $36,656,385 D ebits to Individual A c c o u n ts in 20 P rincipal C itie s, T w e lfth F ed eral R e se rv e D istrict, 1923-1924 Trade at wholesale during December, 1924, continued to show the irregularities reported in recent previous months. Seven of eleven lines of wholesale trade, for which sales figures are tab ulated by this bank, showed declines in value of sales during December, 1924, as compared with December, 1923. Comparisons follow: W H OLESALE TRAD E Percentage increa se or decrease ( — ) in the value o f sales during D e c ., 1924, N o . of com pared w ith Firm s D e c ., 1923 N o v ., 1924 A g r ic u ltu r a l I m p le m e n ts . . . . ............ 22 — 13.8 — 18.8 A u t o m o b ile S u p p l i e s ................ ............ 17 — 12.2 — 8.4 A u t o m o b ile T i r e s ........................ ............ 20 — 0.6 — 15.5 ............ 6 20.5 — 3.6 D r y G o o d s .................................... ............ 14 — 6.5 — 17.0 E le c t r ic a l S u p p l i e s .................... ............ 9 12.1 6.8 -—23.4 — 4.8 25 8.8 — 12.4 ............ 20 — 6.4 3.1 ............ 14 — 18.8 — 23.0 S ta tio n e r y .................................... ............ 28 0.6 8.9 6 Ja n u a ry , 1925 M O N TH LY REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS The volume of trade at retail, as indicated by the value of sales of 36 reporting department stores, was 1.5 per cent larger during Decem ber, 1924, than during December, 1923, hereto fore the record month for retail sales. Stocks of reporting stores on December 31, 1924, were 0.02 per cent larger than on December 31, 1923, and the indicated annual rate of stock turn over at the close of 1924 was slightly more rapid than at the close of the previous year. Comparisons follow: R E T A IL T R A D E N o. of S tores .............. 6 L o s A n g e le s O a k la n d ........................ 5 S a lt L a k e C i t y ............. 4 S an F r a n c i s c o ............ 10 S e a ttle ............................ 5 S p o k a n e ........................ 5 T w e lft h D is t r ic t * ... P ercentage increase or d ecrease (— ) In value o f sales In value o f stock s D e c ., 1924, D e c ., 1924, com pared with com pared with D e c ., N o v ., D e c ., N o v ., 1923 1924 1923 1924 1.2 67.3 — 0.04 — 14.9 3.9 75.9 1.0 — 16.8 1.4 65.3 9.6 — 11.2 1.6 58.3 1.0 — 15.4 3.6 67.0 — 2.1 — 22.0 — 5.9 53.8 — 8.6 — 13.9 36 1.5 64.6 0.02 — 16.0 ^ F ig u r e s f o r o n e s to r e in c lu d e d in d is tric t fig u re s n o t in c lu d e d in fig u re s fo r citie s s h o w n a b o v e . M IL L IO N S OF D O LLA R S Registrations (sales) of new automobiles in the states of this district were less by approxi mately 18 per cent during the first eleven months of 1924 than during the first eleven months of 1923, a further slight decline as com pared with a }^ear ago being reported during November, 1924, the latest month for which figures are available. Figures follow: R E G IS T R A T IO N S O F N E W A U T O M O B IL E S A r iz o n a ................................. C a lifo rn ia ............................ I d a h o ..................................... O r e g o n .................................. U ta h ....................................... W a s h in g t o n ........................ T o t al (6 s t a t e s ) ............ Passenger Jan. 1 to D e c . 1, 1924 1923 9,415 9,515 161,128 208 ,646 10,139 8,587 29,779 32,240 11,333 10,530 35,193 42,976 C om m ercia l Jan. 1 to D e c . 1, 1924 1923 1,023 834 22,199 14,768 647 1,056 1,700 2,118 971 983 4,618 f 256,987 19,936* 26,363* * W a s h in g t o n n o t in c lu d e d . 312,494 f N o t a v a ila b le . On December 31, 1924, savings deposits in 71 banks in seven cities of the district were 2.7 per cent larger than on November 30, 1924, and 9.1 per cent larger than on December 31, 1923. Part of the increase as compared with the pre vious month was probably due to interest ac cruals at the close of December, but the increase as compared with a year ago represents a gain in new savings deposits. Figures follow: S A V IN G S A C C O U N T S N u m b er of D e c .. B anks 1924* L o s A n g e le s . . 13 $ 342,356 $ 92,849 7 9 53,809 S a lt L a k e C ity 8 29,285 S a n F r a n c is c o . 14 434,762 14 71,858 6 20,563 N o v ., 1924* 332,885 91,271 52,254 29,059 422,793 70,151 18,722 Per C e n t increase or decrease( — ) D e c ., 1924, com pared w ith D e c ., D e c ., N o v ., 1923* 1923 1924 $310,684 10.1 2.8 87,406 6.2 1.7 49,829 2.9 7.9 0.7 26,781 9.3 400,442 8.5 2.8 64,521 2.4 11.3 17.0 17,575 9.8 71 $1,045,482 $1,017,135 $957,238 9.1 2.7 *000 o m itte d . Percentage increases or decreases (— ) in the number and liabilities of business failures in the Twelfth Federal Reserve District, as re ported by R. G. Dun and Company, follow : (C) Bank Debits*-D e c e m b e r B e r k e le y .......... B o is e ................. F r e s n o ............... L o n g B e a ch . . L o s A n g e le s . . . O a k la n d ............ O gden ............... P a sa d e n a .......... P h o e n ix ............ P o r t la n d ........... R e n o ................... S a c r a m e n to . . . S alt L a k e C ity . S an D ieg o . . . . San F r a n c is c o . S an J o se .......... S eattle ............... S p o k a n e ........... S t o c k t o n .......... T a c o m a ............ Y a k im a .............. T o ta l ............ *000 om itte d . $ . . . . 1924 17,329 14,216 34,521 48,520 801,463 127,422 28,507 33,217 27,023 163,451 8,471 34,892 85,561 52,957 885 ,396 24,390 186,810 47,908 27,029 41,540 12,421 $2,703,044 $ 1923 17,014 13,475 52,291 62,344 789,510 139,125 31,070 35,319 25,064 169,701 12,014 57,356 83,304 49,881 835,643 23,013 187,984 54,183 27,740 40,584 11,413 $2,718,028 -Y e a r1923 1924 $ 204,782 $ 208,743 150,087 140,483 399,659 613,338 710,404 606,796 8,419,241 8,920,579 1,470,862 1,480,935 286,211 346,023 378,877 387,114 235,524 255,740 1,942,036 1,866,954 125,050 96,274 533,605 513,378 779,768 766,3 43 553,378 579,628 9,481,864 9,767,845 270,783 275,811 2 ,166,876 2,050,664 566,914 598,109 286,302 295,569 464,839 480,283 123,562 127,091 $30,268 ,46 6 $29,659,908 N u m b e r o f B u s in e s s F a ilu r e s . . . . L ia b ilit ie s o f B u s in e s s F a ilu r e s . D e c ., 1924, com pared with D e c ., 1923 N o v ., 1924 11.3 — 0.5 2.0 — 20.1 Prices Continuing an advance which began in June, 1924, the general level of wholesale prices moved upward during December, and at the close of that month reached the highest point of the year. The rise of the general price level during the last six months of 1924 was due chiefly to advancing prices of agricultural com modities, particularly the grains. During No vember and December, 1924, however, price gains among other commodities important to the commerce and industry of the Twelfth District, including lumber and the non-ferrous metals, were partly responsible for the gen eral upward movement, although prices of J a n u a ry , 1925 many farm products continued to advance or remained at previously attained levels. The average rate of increase of wheat prices during the last half of 1924, was greater than 10 per cent per month, and on January 2, 1925, that grain was quoted at prices approximately 70 per cent higher than the lowest figures of 1924, reached in March and April. Prices for barley and rice advanced approximately 47 per cent and 38 per cent, respectively, during the period from June to December, 1924. In creases in prices ranging from 25 to 45 per cent for lambs, sheep, hogs, and wool, and from 5 to 15 per cent for the majority of canned and dried fruits were reported during the same period. Wool prices advanced 31.9 per cent during this period, and at the close of December were 28.2 per cent higher than a year earlier. Beef cattle, cotton, and sugar prices showed net declines during the last half of the past year, and on January 2, 1925, were quoted at lower levels than one year ago. Ex cepting these commodities and dairy produce, all of the principal farm products of the dis trict were selling for more at the beginning of 1925 than at the beginning of 1924. Particularly noteworthy price changes among principal non-agricultural products of the district, during the past month and the past six months were those reported for lead, copper, zinc and lumber. The price of lead ad vanced approximately 15 per cent during De cember, the average price for that month being 9.11 cents per pound at St. Louis. This is higher than at any time since June, 1917, when the average price for the month was 11.12 cents per pound. The December, 1923, aver age price for lead was 7.37 cents per pound. Copper prices advanced to the highest levels of 1924, during December, the average price for the month standing at 14.26 cents per pound compared with 13t64 cents per pound for November, 1924, and 12.82 cents per pound for December, 1923. The December, 1924, average price of copper was the highest reported since July, 1923, when the average price for the month was 14.32 cents per pound. Zinc quotations advanced approximately 10 (D) 7 FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT SAN FRANCISCO per cent during December, 1924, and were about 15 per cent higher than in December, 1923. Further advances in prices of finished lumber products were recorded during De cember, making a total gain during the last half of 1924 of from 5 to 15 per cent in the general level of all lumber prices. During the first weeks of January, 1925, lumber prices stood at levels only slightly below those of January, 1924. The price of crude oil at Cali fornia oil fields was unchanged during the last eleven months of 1924. Details of price movements for a selected group of products of the district, and repre sentative index numbers of the general price level are presented in Table “D.” Banking and Credit Situation Changes in the banking and credit situation during the closing weeks of 1924 and the first weeks of 1925 were largely seasonal. As the New Year begins, bank credit is available at low rates. The outstanding banking development of the past year in this district was the increase in total loans and investments of member banks and concurrent reduction of borrowings from the Federal Reserve Bank. From January to January, loans of 66 reporting member banks increased $35,000,000 or 3.5 per cent and in vestments $91,000,000 or 26.5 per cent, to a combined total of $1,476,000,000. Borrowings from the Federal Reserve Bank decreased $23,000,000 to a total of $10,000,000. Total loans rose slightly from the January 30th figure of $1,002,000,000 during the first five months of the year, declined during June and July to the year’s low point, $994,000,000 on July 23rd, and increased thereafter to the highest point on record, $1,050,000,000, on December 31st. Total investments increased steadily through out the year, excepting a brief period during the early summer, and at $435,000,000 on De cember 31st were $90,000,000 or 26.1 per cent larger than on January 2nd. The total volume of credit extended by reporting member banks of the district (total loans and investments) increased from $1,353,000,000 at the beginning Commodity Prices— C om m od ity U nit W h o le s a le P r ic e s (U . S. B u re a u o f L a b o r ) 1 9 1 3 = 1 0 0 .................................... P u r c h a sin g P o w e r o f F a rm P r o d u c t s (U . S. D e p a r tm e n t o f A g r i c u l t u r e ) $ C a ttle (N a t iv e B e e f ) . W e e k ly a v e r a g e p r ic e at C h ic a g o .................................. H o g s ................................W e e k ly a v e r a g e p r ic e at C h ic a g o ................................... L a m b s .............................W e e k ly a v e r a g e p r ic e at C h ic a g o ................................... W h e a t ............................. C h ic a g o c o n t r a c t p r ice fo r M a y w h e a t....................... P ru n e s ............................S ize 4 0 /5 0 in 25 -lb . b o x e s f. o. b. C a lifo r n ia ............. R a is in s ............................ L o o s e M u s c a te l in 25 lb . b o x e s , f.o .b . C a lifo r n ia , W o o l ................................A v e ra g e o f 98 q u o ta tio n s at B o s t o n ............................... C o p p e r ............................ E le c t r o ly t ic , m o n t h ly a v e r a g e at N e w Y o r k .............. L e a d ................................ M o n t h l y a v e r a g e at N e w Y o r k ........................................... S ilv e r .............................. M o n t h ly a v e r a g e at N e w Y o r k ........................................... L u m b e r ( S o f t w o o d ) .. W e e k l y I n d e x , U . S .* ........................................................ 100 lb s. 100 lb s. 100 lb s. bu . lb. lb . lb . lb . lb . oz. Jan. 2, 1925 157.0 85.0 $9.25 10.45 17.25 1 .7 5 ^ -1 .8 0 ^ . 1 0 - .1 0 i 4 t .0 9 % 102.040 14.260 9.210 68.100 31.26 O n e M on th A g o 152.7 86 $9.75 9.00 14.85 1 .5 9 ^ -1 .6 1 ^ .10-.10J 4 .09^4 96.640 13.640 8.690 69.300 30.65 O ne Y ea r A g o 151.0 85 $9.50 7.15 13.20 1 . 0 7 ^ - 1 .0 8 % .1 0 ^ -.ll .09^4 79.610 12.820 7.370 64.710 3L 99 * A s p u b lis h e d b y th e “ L u m b e r M a n u fa c tu r e r an d D e a le r .” t ja n u a r y 19, 1925. J R a tio o f fa rm p r ice s (A u g u s t , 1909 - J u ly , 1 9 1 4 = 1 0 0 ) t o w h o le sa le p r ice s o f n o n -a g r ic u ltu r a l co m m o d itie s (1 9 1 0 -1 9 1 4 = 1 0 0 ). M ON TH LY REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS of the year to $1,485,000,000 at its close, the latter figure being the highest on record. It was 11.6 per cent above the highest point, $1,331,000,000, reached in December, 1920. Deposits held by these banks increased more rapidly than did their loans and the ratio of total deposits to total loans was 143.0 on De cember 31st compared with 132.3 on January 2nd. Demand deposits, after a slight decrease in the period from February to June, advanced from a mid-year low point of $716,000,000 on June 4th to $832,000,000 on November 12th and fluctuated about $800,000,000 during the M IL L IO N S OF D O L L A R S member banks, but as harvest returns became available during the autumn the country banks also liquidated the larger part of their debts with the Reserve Bank. Total discounts of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, at $7,600,000 on January 14, 1925, were $37,700,000 less than on January 16, 1924, but invest ments of the Bank had been increased by $53,000,000 during the same period, so that total earning assets were approximately $16,000,000 larger than a year ago. At the peak in 1920 total discounts of the Bank stood at $176,872,000. Federal reserve note circulation fluctuated within relatively narrow limits at figures slightly above $200,000,000 during most of the year 1924. Beginning in August a normal seasonal increase was noted, first in response to crop moving needs and later in response to holiday and year-end currency requirements. Circulation required by needs of member banks increased from $213,000,000 on December 3, 1924, to $222,000,000 on December 24, 1924. By January 14, 1925, the major part of this cur rency issued in response to seasonal needs had been returned to the bank, Federal reserve note circulation on that date standing at $204,000,000. Changes in significant items in the statement of condition of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco during the month and during the year are presented in the following table (000,000 omitted) : C on - T ota l D ep o sits, L oans and D isco u n ts, Investm ents, and B ills Payable and R e d iscou n ts o f R ep orting M e m b e r Banks last six weeks of the year. Time deposits in creased almost without check during the whole of 1924, advancing $112,000,000 or 19.7 per cent to the record figure, $681,000,000 on Decem ber 31st. Changes occurring in the principal items of the combined statement of the 66 reporting member banks in this district during the month and during the year ending January 7, 1925, are presented in the following table (000,000 omitted) : C on C h an ge from O n e M on th A go* ( 0 .7 % ) T o t a l L o a n s ..................... — 7 C o m m e r c ia l L o a n s . . . . + 9 ( 1 .1 % ) In v e s tm e n ts ...................... + 1 3 ( 3 .1 % ) 1 .4 % ) D e m a n d D e p o s it s ..........— 11 ( 0 .3 % ) T o t a l D e p o s it s ............... + 4 ( B o r r o w in g s fr o m F e d e ra l R e s e r v e B a n k ............ + 7 ( 2 3 3 .3 % ) * F ig u r e s in p a r e n th e s e s in d ica te C h ange from O ne Y ear A go* + 35 ( 3 .5 % ) + 10 ( 1 .2 % ) + 9 1 ( 2 6 .5 % ) + 37 ( 4 .9 % ) + 1 4 3 ( 1 0 .6 % ) — 23 ( 6 9 .7 % ) p e r c e n ta g e dition Jan. 7, 1925 $1,041 822 435 795 1,487 10 ch an ges. The steady downward trend of borrowing from the Federal Reserve Bank during 1924 was broken only by small seasonal increases in the volume of discounted bills during the spring planting season and the winter holiday period. During the first eight months of the year the decline in total discounts was the re sult chiefly of decreased, borrowing by city Ja n u a ry , 1925 T o t a l E a r n in g A s s e t s . . . D is c o u n t s ............................ U n ite d S ta tes S e cu ritie s P u rc h a se d A c c e p t a n c e s T o t a l R e s e rv e s ................. T o t a l D e p o s it s .................. F e d e ra l R e s e r v e N o te C ir c u la tio n ...................... ^ F ig u r e s in p a re n th e s e s C h an ge from O n e M on th A go* — 1 ( 0 .9 % ) — 1 ( 1 1 .1 % ) — 5 ( 9 .3 % ) + 6 ( 1 3 .3 % ) — 13 ( 4 .5 % ) + 2 ( 1 .2 % ) C h ange from dition O ne Y ear Jan. 14, A go* 1925 + 16 ( 1 7 .4 % ) $108 — 37 ( 8 2 .2 % ) 8 + 36 ( 2 7 6 .9 % ) 49 + 17 ( 5 0 .0 % ) 51 — 16 ( 5 .5 % ) 275 + 7 ( 4 .3 % ) 168 — — 9 ( 4 .2 % ) in d ica te p ercen ta g e 9 ( 4 .2 % ) 204 changes. The supply of bank credit in the United .States was in excess of current commercial demand during a large part of the year 1924 and interest rates in the New York market de clined to unusually low levels. The following table indicates the extent of the movement: W e e k Ending Jan uary 5, 1924. . A u gu st 2, 1 9 2 4 .. N o v e m b e r 1, 1924. . D e c e m b e r 27, 1924. . J a n u a ry 17, 1925. . C a ll M oney 5 .1 8 % 2 .0 0 % 2 .3 9 % 4 .3 6 % 3 .2 8 % - W e e k ly A v era ge R ate o n C om B a n k ers’ T im e m ercial A ccep t M oney Paper ances 5% 434% 4^% 2 ^ -2 3 ^ % 2% 3^4% 2 3 ^ -3 % 3 -3 5 4 % 254% 3 5 4 -3 3 /4 % 3% sy 2- 3 U % 3% 3 34% % 354 In this district rates charged customers on prime commercial paper of 30-90 day maturity, as reported by banks in principal cities, de clined only slightly during the year. In Janu ary, 1925, rates ranged from 5 to 7 per cent, the prevailing rate being 6 per cent, while in Janu ary, 1924, the range was from S T / 2 to 7 per cent with a prevailing rate of 6% per cent.
@FedFRASER