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ID A H O ALASKA WASHINGTON UTAH Review of Business Conditions 3REG0N CALIFORNIA •v-vM v' '111 ARIZONA NEVADA December economic activity in the na tion continued generally at the relatively high November level and edged up slightly in the consumer sector. But 1963 was ushered in with tempered expectations in contrast to the exuberant forecasts with which 1962 had been heralded a year earlier. Announcements by the Commerce Department placed gross national product in the fourth quarter at an annual rate $7 billion above that in the third quarter, and personal income in December at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $450.4 billion, up $2.2 million from November. In dustrial production in December continued to move sidewise, remaining at 120 percent of the 1957-59 average, and new orders re ceived by durable goods manufacturers fell 3 percent from the November level on a season ally adjusted basis. The value of new con struction in December changed little from the revised November seasonally adjusted rate of $62.5 billion. Consumers ended the year by establishing a December record for retail pur chases, although the margin of gain over No vember was very small after seasonal adjust ment. For the year as a whole, retail sales, which continued throughout 1962 as one of the more favorable elements in the economy, set a new yearly high, 7 percent above the 1961 level. The seasonally adjusted rate of unemployment declined to 5.6 percent in midDecember from 5.8 percent a month earlier. This improvement, however, was attributed to the success of teen-agers in finding parttime employment during the holiday season and did not alter the basic unemployment situation, as long-term unemployment rose. During the latter part of the fourth quarter, the Twelfth District appears to have fared somewhat better than the nation as a whole in the pace of business activity. The absence of regional data for some major sectors of activ ity limits comparisons to those sectors for I N which roughly comparable data are available. Employment behavior in the Pacific Coast States and in the nation was similar. In No vember, seasonally adjusted employment de clined slightly from the October level in both areas, and in December the 0.4 percent in crease in the Pacific Coast States matched the percentage rise in employment in the nation. In November, the rate of seasonally adjusted unemployment in the Pacific Coast States re mained unchanged at 5.7 percent in contrast to a rise nationally to 5.8 percent. In Decem ber, the unemployment rate for both areas de clined to 5.6 percent. While there has been improvement in two of the three major labor market areas of substantial unemployment in the District during the year, an additional ma jor area was newly classified as an area of substantial unemployment in December. Both the District and the nation carried over un solved into the new year the problem of un employment which was of major concern throughout 1962, The District’s performance in the construc tion area was somewhat better than for the nation as a whole; total construction contracts in November were 4.5 percent above the Oc tober level, on a seasonally adjusted basis, compared with a slight decline nationally. While housing started under FHA inspection and applications for FHA insurance on new homes, advance indicators of residential con struction, declined in November both in the District and in the nation, the percentage drop was much greater nationally. National steel output for the entire year of 1962 was frac tionally above the 1961 level, but in the Dis trict steel production fell 10 percent below 1961, in spite of a sizable increase in output in December. These divergent trends are ex plained, in part, by the fact that near-record automobile production which contributed to steel demand nationally had little direct effect on District production. Both District and na FEDERAL RESERVE BANK tional producers expect some increase in or ders, probably beginning later in the first quarter as steel users build up inventories as a hedge against a possible steel strike in late spring. Preliminary District data indicate that De cember department store sales, seasonally ad justed, were maintained at the record Novem ber level and set a new high for the month of December, as they did nationally. For the year as a whole, the District rate of increase of 6 percent in department store sales over 1961 exceeded that in the nation by 2 per centage points. On the basis of nearly com plete information on car registrations, it ap pears that consumers in California bought more new cars in 1962 than in any preceding year, including 1955, while for the nation 1962 was the second-best year. Fragmentary data indicate that both in the nation and the District consumer expenditures continued at near record rates in the early weeks of Jan uary. During December, the increase in total loans1 at District weekly reporting member banks was about two-thirds greater than in the corresponding period of 1961 in contrast to a gain of about one-fifth for all weekly re porting member banks. Demand for bank credit reflected borrowing needs related to quarterly corporate tax payments due in midDecember. Banks throughout the nation were under some reserve pressure during Decem ber, as frequently occurs at this time of year. District nonfarm employment up slightly in November In the Twelfth District the number of wage and salary workers in non-agricultural esta blishments totaled 7,621,900 in November 1962.2 This was virtually unchanged from October while in the nation there was a small 1 Adjusted to exclude loans to domestic commercial banks. 2 D ata are seasonally adjusted and include all D istrict states except Alaska and Hawaii. OF SAN FRANCISCO decline. A slight decrease in manufacturing payrolls, centering in California, was offset by small gains in mining, construction, trans portation and utilities, and government. Em ployment in trade, finance, and services re mained unchanged from the preceding month. Total nonfarm payroll employment showed an increase of 3.8 percent over November 1961, with only mining registering a decline. The greatest gains from a year ago were in finance, services, and government; the least growth occurred in transportation and utili ties. The employment gains over the year-ago period varied rather widely among the indi vidual District states. Nevada, with a 13.2 percent increase, showed the largest gain and Idaho, up only 1.1 percent, the smallest. Cali fornia had the same increase as the District as a whole— 3.8 percent; Oregon, Utah, and Washington were below the District average and Arizona was somewhat above. November decline in District insured unemployment relatively small State insured unemployment in the Dis trict1 fell by 2,100 to 294,500 persons in No vember; however, the decrease from the cor responding month a year ago was consider ably less than in previous months, only 5 per cent compared with declines of 10,14, and 16 percent in October, September, and August, respectively. The District rate of insured un employment dropped slightly from 5.2 per cent in October to 5.1 percent in November. December employment rose in Pacific Coast States; unemployment rate declined The seasonally adjusted rate of unemploy ment for the Pacific Coast States declined to 5.6 percent of the labor force in December, 0.1 percent less than in November and the lowest rate for any month of 1962. For the year as a whole, the rate averaged 5.7 percent. ’ Includes all D istrict states. January 1963 MONTHLY REVIEW Oregon had an unemployment rate of 4.6 percent in December, the lowest for the three states. The total number of jobless workers declined to 478,500, down 1.5 percent from November and 5 percent less than in Decem ber 1961. Total employment rose by 0.4 per cent from November to December, and the in crease from a year ago was 3.2 percent, or 249,300 workers. The yearly gain in employ ment came from the nonagricultural sector, as agricultural employment was less than in the year-ago period, a condition which pre vailed during most of 1962. The number of nonfarm wage and salary workers in the Pacific Coast States rose 0.5 percent from November to December. The most substantial gain was in government; however, this reflected the inclusion in De cember of a large number of temporary post office employees. Other industry divisions which experienced increases in December were contract construction, trade, finance, and services; employment in mining, manu facturing, and transportation and utilities was unchanged from November. Since last De cember, payroll employment expanded 4 per cent; the greatest year-to-year gain was in construction, up almost 6 percent. Finance, services, and government had increases of approximately 5 percent each. Additional District major labor market area classified as having substantial unemployment In December, for the first time since early 1961, a major labor market area in the Dis trict moved from the category of “moderate unemployment” to that of “substantial unem ployment” (6.0 - 8.9 percent). For the past two years, all previous changes in classifica tion in the District had been in the direction of lower unemployment categories. The increase in unemployment in Spokane, Washington, to the “substantial” level was caused primarily by the phase-out of activities at missile instal lations and cutbacks in basic durable goods industries which resulted in a more than sea sonal reduction in jobs. Three metropolitan centers in California— Fresno, San Diego, and Stockton— remained classified as major labor market areas of “sub stantial unemployment.” In Octeber these areas, having been so classified for nine of the preceding twelve months, were listed as be ing eligible for assistance under the Public Works Acceleration Act. The November rates of unemployment in Stockton and Fresno were less than a year earlier, while in San Diego the rate was 1 percent higher than in November 1961. There were 17 smaller areas of “substan tial unemployment” in the District in Decem ber. These included three smaller areas that were recently defined as labor market areas and classified as having substantial unem ployment in November and December— Red ding, California, and Ontario and Salem, Oregon. Retail sales continue at a high level During November, Group I stores1 in the Twelfth District sold $2,532 million worth of goods and services, just slightly below the October level. However, after taking into con sideration the fewer number of selling days in November, sales were running about 9 per cent higher than a month earlier. Most of the increase was accounted for by general mer chandise, furniture and appliance, and auto motive stores. In the general merchandise group, department stores were among those having a heavy volume of sales. It appears from preliminary data that De cember department store sales on a season ally adjusted basis did not vary by more than 1 index point from the record level set in No vember. During the four-week period ended December 29, District department store sales were 5 percent above the comparable year1 Stores with 1-10-outlets as of the 1958 Census of Retail Trade. FEDERAL RESERVE B A NK SeasonaiSy adjusted sa les of d epartm ent stores declined in December 1957 - 5 9 = 1 0 0 d Prelim inary. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. ago level, indicating both record Christmas sales this year and a new high for the month of December. For the entire year, department store sales were 6 percent above the previous record set in 1961. The new year started off with a continued high level of sales. Nationally, department stores fared about the same as in the District, with record Christ mas sales. The preliminary December sea sonally adjusted index was 2 points below November but was still a high for the month. F or the year, sales were 4 percent above 1961, somewhat less than the percentage in crease for the District. In the first week of 1963 sales equalled the 11 percent gain over the year-ago week that occurred in the Dis trict. California auto registrations hit record in November During November there were 73,728 new automobiles registered in California, the larg est number recorded for any month. On a daily average basis, November registrations also set a record, 14 percent above the pre OF SAN FRANCISCO vious high in September 1955, and for the first time this year cumulative total registra tions surpassed the comparable total for 1955. Registrations continued at a high rate in the first six days of December, with daily average registrations of 2,814 setting an alltime high for that particular period. While the daily average number of registrations ta pered off to 1,885 in the next six-day period and may have stayed at a relatively low level during the remainder of the month, it ap pears likely that December registrations will be sufficiently large to make 1962 a record year for new car sales in California. Nationally, sales of automobiles set a rec ord for the last three weeks of December and for the year as a whole, were exceeded only by those for 1955. The apparently better per formance in California is undoubtedly related to the faster rate of population and personal income growth in the State than nationally in recent years. November rise in consumer instalment credit at District banks reflected auto financing Total outstanding instalment credit at Twelfth District commercial banks rose $30 million in November as consumers continued to increase their bank-held debt. The largest proportion of the increase was in automobile credit, which rose $26 million; personal loans increased $4 million, and other types of loans gained by small amounts. The increase in the monthly addition to outstandings was due to a reduction in the amount of repayments in November as the $285 million in consumer credit extended during the month was ap proximately the same as in October. District construction contracts rose in November on seasonally adjusted basis In November, total construction contracts in District states (excluding Alaska and H a January 1963 MONTHLY REVIEW waii) rose 4.5 percent to a total of $784 mil lion.1 Apartment building was a major ele ment in the gain of 10.1 percent in contracts awarded for residential building during the month. Nonresidential contracts, on the other hand, fell 4.4 percent, apparently due to larg er than usual seasonal declines in most of the major components of this category. Public works and utilities contracts rose 4.7 percent, indicating that actual declines in this area were less than normal for this time of year. Housing starts under FH A inspection de clined nearly 15 percent in November in the Twelfth District, but this was a relatively smaller drop than in the nation as a whole. Compared with November 1961, District FHA housing starts were off 1 percent while they fell nearly 11 percent in the nation. The District also fared better in regard to the number of applications for FH A mortgage insurance on new homes. November appli cations to offices of the Federal Housing A d ministration in the District were nearly 18 percent below the October level, a relatively smaller decline than in the nation. However, the number of applications in November fell considerably below the year-ago level in both the District and the nation. Mortgage rates displayed further ease in November The monthly survey conducted by the Fed eral Housing Administration indicates that on December 1 the average net price paid in the West (which includes offices in M ontana and Wyoming in addition to Twelfth District states) for FH A insured 5 V a percent home mortgages in the secondary market rose $0.10 during November to $97.70 per $100. This was a continuation of the upward price movement which has occurred in nearly every prior month of 1962, both in the West and in the nation as a whole. The December 1 1 Eased on data reported by the F. W. Dodge Corporation, Sea sonally adjusted unless otherwise stated. price represents a yield of about 5.55 percent per annum (assuming a 25-year maturity with prepayment in full after 12 years). The sur vey also indicated that the rate charged for conventional mortgage loans on new homes in the West remained at its November 1 level of 6,15 percent. The rate on loans to pur chase existing homes fell 5 basis points during the same period, to 6.20 percent. Both rates have fluctuated during 1962 but have gener ally declined during the latter half of the year. Comparable average rates for new and exist ing home loans in the nation also declined in 1962, but the downward movement lagged that in the West by several months. Savings and loan activity in the District showed further gains in November Data from reporting savings and loan as sociations in District states indicate that their savings capital increased 1.6 percent during November, and their real estate loans rose 1.8 percent. These rates of increase were about the same as in previous months of this year (after adjustment for larger gains in those months when interest is credited quar terly). Roughly comparable figures for all insured savings and loan associations show that District institutions increased their mortgage loans and gained savings at faster rates in November than did such associations in the nation. During the first eleven months of 1962, savings capital and holdings of real estate loans of District associations rose some what more than in the same period of 1961. Again, in both cases, District gains out stripped those for all insured associations in the United States. Reported loan commit ments in November increased at District as sociations while declining nationally. Reflect ing this more rapid growth, District associa tions increased their borrowing from the Fed eral Home Loan Bank and from other sources in November, which contrasts with a decline in the nation as a whole. FEDERAL RESERVE BANK Lumber orders for fir and pine turned up in December after November decline On the basis of final data, November pro duction, orders, and shipments of Douglas fir and Western pine were all below October levels. Fir orders declined about 10 percent from October but were approximately 2 per cent higher than a year ago. In the Western pine region, November orders were 20 per cent below October and only fractionally above their level in 1961. Although produc tion of fir and pine was cut back in November, output still exceeded new orders and ship ments. Even with the November increase in inventories, however, stocks of both fir and pine were substantially below the 1961 level, and there was an improvement in the ratio of unfilled orders to stocks. Unfilled orders of fir were equal to 48 percent of stocks on hand compared with only 39 percent in November 1961, and unfilled orders for pine were equal to 18 percent of stocks compared with 16 percent a year earlier. In contrast to the Douglas fir and pine markets, orders for California redwood rose in November by almost 7 percent from the October level. A 14 percent cutback in No vember brought production well below or ders, as it had been throughout most of the year. Orders and shipments were 37 and 9 percent, respectively, above their levels in November 1961, whereas production was 5 percent lower than a year-ago. Reduction in redwood inventories over the year, along with a very substantial increase in unfilled orders, resulted in considerable improvement in the November ratio of unfilled orders to inven tory compared with the year-ago level. In December, orders for Douglas fir and pine were well above those in November and also above the level for December 1961. A sharp monthly reduction in output, partly due to the cutback during the Christmas week, OF SAN FRANCISCO brought production in these markets below incoming orders for the month. Reflecting the increased pace of incoming orders as well as the decline in production during the Christ mas and New Year holiday weeks, Crow’s composite average lumber price rose 0.2 per cent to $73.73 from December 6 to January 3. This average price was 2 percent above a year ago, with green fir, dry fir, and pine exceeding their year-earlier levels by approxi mately 3, 3, and 1 percent, respectively. Steel production in Western states rose in December Steel production in the Western states1 rose approximately 21 percent during the four weeks ended December 29 despite a cutback in the latter week because of Christmas. Pro duction was increased to meet Government defense contracts and to build up mill inven tories to meet January shipment schedules, and expected order improvement in early 1963. However, for the week ended December 29, Western steel production was still 13 per cent below its level during the correspond ing period of 1961. National steel production, adversely af fected by snowstorms, the Christmas holiday, and the reluctance of some steel consumers to receive steel that would increase year-end inventory taxes, fell almost 9 percent during the Decembr 1-29 period. During the week ended December 29, production was more than 18 percent below the level a year ago when orders were pouring in from customers buying as a hedge against a possible steel strike. While 1962 national steel output frac tionally exceeded the 1961 level, District pro duction for 1962 was about 10 percent under that for 1961. National steel production, rebounding from the Christmas slowdown, rose by more than 11 percent from December 29 to the week ended January 12 and reached an operating 1 Arizona, U tah, W ashington, Oregon, California and Colorado. January 1963 MONTHLY REVIEW rate of 61.5 percent of estimated current ca pacity, the highest rate since late April. West ern production, on the other hand, slipped back 2 percent over the two-week period. The national increase was the result of the strong pace of automotive orders as well as orders from other customers who have worked down inventories so that their current needs are being reflected in purchases. Mills are also probably building up their in-plant stocks in preparation for meeting an expected rise in first quarter orders. Anticipated inventory ac cumulation by steel consumers as protection against a possible steel strike that could stem from reopening of the labor contract after April 30 is the chief factor in the expected increase in orders. Increase in refining activity Refining activity in the West, as measured by the run of crude to stills, increased slightly during December and continued above the level in the corresponding month of 1961. Although refinery runs in the latter part of 1962 have been larger than a year earlier, stocks of major refinery products are below year-ago levels except for residual oils. Stocks of this product at West Coast refineries in mid-December were almost a third larger than a year earlier. Due in part to the heavier crude oil produced in the area, the yield of residual oils in the refining operation is about twice the national rate. Record farm marketing receipts in November Returns of District farmers from market ings in November were the largest for any month on record and exceeded $750 million. The volume of receipts was almost 15 per cent higher than in the same month a year ear lier. This higher level of returns was wide spread among all District states and represent ed an increase generally in income from both F a rm e rs in T w e lfth D istrict had re co rd cash re c e ip ts from marketings in November M illio n s of D o llo rs Source: United States D epartm ent of Agriculture. crops and livestock products over November 1961, Receipts from heavier crop marketings, however, accounted for the bulk of the rise. December rise in total assets of District banks reflect large loan increase Total assets of all member banks in the District rose $1,164 million in December, twice the increase in the year-ago period. Loan portfolios expanded $513 million, aug mented by lending related to December quar terly tax payments, and brought the total loan increase for the year to more than $2.5 bil lion. The holdings of United States Govern ment obligations by District banks rose $107 million in December but declined $670 mil lion during the year as a whole. Portfolios of other securities increased $73 million in De cember and $629 million during the year. Total deposits rose sharply in December, gaining by more than $ 1 billion. The Decem ber increase of $266 million in time deposits raised the yearly gain in such deposits to nearly $2 billion. FEDERAL RESERVE B A NK OF SAN FRANCISCO CHANGES IN S E L E C T E D BALAN CE S ^ E E T IT E M S OF W E E K L Y R EP O R TIN G BA NK S m LEADING C IT IE S (d o lla r am ounts in m illio n s) T w e lfth D istric t ............- — - . .. ASSETS: Total loans and investments Loans adjusted and invest ments1 Loans adjusted1 Commercial and industrial loans Real estate loans Agricultural loans Loans to nonbank financial institutions Loans for purchasing and ca rryin g securities Loans to foreign banks Other loans Loans to domestic com m ercial banks U. S. Government securities Other securities LIA B ILITIES : Demand deposits adjusted Tim e deposits Savings accounts From Dec. 12, 1962 to Jan. 9, 1963 Dollars Percent U nited S ta te s From Jan. 10, 1962 to Jan. 9, 1963 Dollars Percent From Dec. 12, 1962 to Jan. 9, 1963 Dollars Percent From Jan. 10, 1962 to Jan. 9, 1963 Dollars Percent -M O O + 0.35 + 2,120 + 8.10 + 1,674 + 1.30 + 9,568 + + 376 + 279 + + 1.36 1.54 + 2,210 + 2,216 + 8.56 + 13.65 + 1,824 + 1,021 + + 1.44 1.28 + 9,629 + 7,713 + 8.09 + 10.55 + + + 90 51 17 + + + 1.46 0.81 1.92 + + + 514 854 132 + 8.98 + 15.61 + 17.12 + + + 130 50 49 + + + 0.37 0.32 3.26 + 2,436 + 2,116 + 245 + 7.50 + 15.79 + 18.75 + 29 + 2.95 + 156 + 18.20 + 371 + 5.92 + 843 + 14.54 + + 85 2 30 + 31.72 — 1.00 + 0.81 + — 118 33 512 + 50.21 — 14.29 + 15.81 + + + 490 33 52 + 10.65 5.34 0.28 + 826 + + + 7 + 1,442 + 19.36 + 1.09 + 8.53 — 276 + 104 — 7 51.11 1.64 — 0.22 90 618 612 — 25.42 — 8.76 + 24.32 — 150 730 73 7.94 2.34 0.46 61 — 1,701 + 3,617 — 3.39 — 5.05 + 29.60 -— 136 + 309 + 120 — 296 + + 1,689 + 1,374 + 2.42 + 12.42 + 12.70 — 0.37 2.03 f .22 — 942 + 8,545 + 4,572 — 1.43 + 20.32 + 15.03 + + + 1.07 2.06 0.99 + — + + + 242 + 1,009 421 + — + + — + + 7.92 ’ Exclusive of loans to domestic commercial banks and after deductions of valuation reserves; individual loan item s are shown gross. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. December tax borrowing at weekly reporting banks higher than in 1961 In the four-week period, December 12 to January 9, District weekly reporting member banks had an increase in loans (adjusted to exclude loans to domestic commercial banks) of $279 million, more than one-third greater than in the corresponding period a year ago. This was largely due to greater tax borrow ing by business firms over the mid-December tax date than in 1961 and to sizable loans to brokers and dealers to finance expanded in ventories of United States Government secu rities acquired under repurchase agreements that were timed to terminate just prior to the tax date. In addition, business borrowing con tinued to expand until the week ended Janu ary 9. Brokers and dealers repaid mid-De cember borrowing in the last two weeks of December but sought bank financing again in the week ended January 9. As throughout 1962, District banks added to their portfolios of real estate mortgages and the gain in this period was twice that of the corresponding weeks a year ago. Automobile financing con tinued to contribute to the expansion in the “other loan” category, which is largely com posed of consumer loans. Weekly reporting member banks added $104 million to their holdings of United States Government securities in this fourweek period. This mainly reflected replenish ment of Treasury bills sold or run off in the week ended December 12, although there January 1963 MONTHLY REVIEW were also some additions to intermediate and long-term issues. There was a small net reduc tion in other security holdings. The decline in demand deposits adjusted in this period was less than half that in the cor responding weeks a year ago, and was almost entirely offset by increases in United States Government deposits and deposits of domes tic commercial banks. The rise in total savings and time deposits for this four-week period was somewhat less than a year earlier. At the end of December 1962 savings deposits were $1.4 billion above December 1961 and the rate of interest paid on such deposits was at least Vi percent higher. As a result, the increase in savings in the two-week period when year-end interest credited to savings accounts is reflected was about $40 million greater than a year ago. Savings depositors, however, made net withdrawals of $8 million in the week ended January 9, whereas in the corresponding week last year savings rose $53 million. Because of this divergent movement the gain in savings for the four weeks was be low that of the year-ago period. Small decline in District interest rates on short-term business loans Business firms paid slightly less for short term funds from Twelfth District banks in December 1962 than in the preceding quar ter, according to the recent interest rate sur vey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. The unweighted average in terest rate on such loans made during the pe riod December 1-15 was 5.35 percent, 2 basis points below the rate in the first half of Sep tember but above the 5.25 percent rate in December 1961. The proportion of the dollar amount of loans made at the prime rate of 4V2 percent increased from 26 percent in September to 32 percent in December, while the volume of loans made at rates between 4V2 percent and 516 percent declined. The downward shift in interest rates occurred principally in large loans of $200,000 or more. In contrast to the decline in the cost of borrowing short-term funds, long-term inter est rates on loans to commercial and indus trial firms averaged 5.46 percent, up 11 basis points from September and considerably higher than the 5.30 percent rate in Decem ber 1961. Long-term loans accounted for only 2 percent of the dollar volume of loans in December, down from the relatively high 6 percent of the loans covered by the Septem ber survey. Banks participating in the survey1 report ed 4,371 short-term business loans totaling $374 million and 76 long-term business loans totaling $9 million during the survey period. The dollar amount of short-term loans was greater than in September, although there were fewer loans. In contrast, there were slightly more long-term loans in December, but the dollar volume was approximately onethird less than the amount reported in Sep tember. 'T h e quarterly interest rate survey covers 23 leading District banks and includes 32 banking offices in 5 major cities. 11 FEDERAL RESERVE B A NK OF SAN FRANCISCO BANKING AND CREDIT STATISTICS AND BUSINESS INDEXES—TWELFTH DISTRICT’ ( I n d e x e s : 1 9 5 7 - 1 9 5 9 = 1 0 0 . D o l l a r a m o u n t s in m i l l i o n s o f d o l l a r s ) Condition items of all member banks2' 7 Year and Month Loans and discounts 1929 1933 1939 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 2,239 1,486 1,967 9,220 9,418 11,124 12,613 13,178 13,812 16,537 17,139 18.499 U.S. Gov’t securities Demand deposits adjusted3 Total time deposits 1,234 951 1,983 10,515 11,196 11,864 12,169 11,870 12,729 13,375 13,060 14,163 1,790 1,609 2,267 7,997 8,699 9,120 9,424 10,679 12,077 12,452 13,034 15,116 495 720 1,450 6,639 7,942 7,239 6,452 6,619 8,003 6,673 6.964 8,278 Bank debits index 31 cities1’ s Bank rates on short-term business loans*1 1 19 8 14 69 71 80 88 94 96 109 117 125 4.14 4.09 4.10 4.50 4.97 4.88 5.36 5.62 5.46 113p 1961 D ecem ber 18,499 8,278 14,163 15,116 135 1962 J a n u a ry F e b ru a ry M arch A pril M ay Ju n e Ju ly A ugust Septem ber O ctober N ovem ber D ecem ber IS ,646 18,622 18,906 19,070 19,328 19,625 19,669 20,017 20,165 20,460 20,589 21,102 8,082 7,820 7,776 7,811 7,582 7,689 7,532 7,309 7,471 7,471 7,-501 7,608 13,671 13,163 13,235 13,706 13,945 13,101 13,535 13,255 13,446 13,969 14,012 14,431 15,448 15,647 15.939 16,091 16,352 16,511 16,587 16,655 16,772 16,934 16,827 17,093 136 133 138 143 140 145 145 138 143 146 135 Total nonagricultural employ ment 5.42 5 io 5.52 5.49 5.'o0 Crude Refined Dep't store sales (valuel5 Retail food prices 18 11 19 74 74 82 91 93 98 109 110 115 123 53 34 38 93 93 92 94 97 101 101 103 104 '86 85 90 95 98 98 104 106 108 '8 6 84 90 96 101 96 103 103 103r 110 56 83 108 103 112 112 103 96 101 95 94 llO r 106r 104 120 104 lllr lllr 112r 112r 112r 112r 113r 113r 114r 114r 114r 11 op 107r 107r 107r 108r 108r lOSr io :ir 109r llO r lllr llO r llO p 107 106 104 104 99 100 106 105 107 105 119 120 123 118 121 123 123 124 122 121 128 127 105 105 105 105 106 106 105 105 106 106 105 Imports Exports Cement 7.1 Waterborne Foreign Trade Index7* *> 10 Petroleum7 Lumber Car loadings (number)6 109p Industrial production (physical volume)1 Year and month Total mf'g employ ment Steel7 Copper7 Electric power Total Dry Cargo Tanker Total Dry Cargo 13 11 17 58 61 69 73 82 89 95 97 107 115 124 96 55 82 94 86 71 67 84 101 116 89 95 122 61 193 55 * '43 78 81 56 57 72 105 124 86 90 123 ino 137 102 113 96 116 91 96 96 108 116 20 12 16 27 33 51 44 51 75 95 92 112 132 42 60 60 70 71 80 86 93 95 113 115 "i 7 18 41 28 35 69 97 91 112 136 Tanker 1929 1933 1939 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 I960 1961 87 36 65 102 105 106 105 111 109 96 98 106 100 99 91 54 70 111 112 114 111 111 109 106 98 96 95 96 61 39 49 87 90 95 92 96 100 103 96 101 104 108 34 17 35 80 77 82 83 90 97 93 99 108 101 105 16 97 92 105 85 102 108 114 94 92 102 111 89 15 70 101 100 98 90 104 114 113 101 86 112 119 1961 N ovem ber D ecem ber 103 97 96 96 112 110 114 95 107 107 128 126 130 125 129 138 134 150 115 105 124 119 113 117 130 120 1962 Ja n u a ry F e b ru a ry M arch A pril M ay Ju n e Ju ly A ugust Septem ber O ctober N ovem ber 97 103 104 102 104 99 101 96 107 100 94 94 95 95 96 96 96 97 96 97 97 108 110 106 105 108 112 115 114 113 112 113 103 95 109 120 113 100 110 114 109 122 117 119 120 112 98 107 103 84 89r 90r 88 p 91p 124 138 130 140 136 130 112 115 119r 127p 132 126 130 129 131 128 124 137 133 107 134 104 82 131 143 124 121 145 121 85 102 123 130 67 103 59 74 125 94 120 140 137 156 111 107 128 117 138 132 132 86 116 154 137 171 1 A djusted for seasonal variatio n , except w here indicated. E x ce p t for b anking a n d credit a n d d e p a rtm e n t store sta tistics, all indexes are based upon d a ta from outside sources, as follows: lum ber, N ational L um ber M a n u fac tu rers’ A ssociation, W est C o a st L u m b e rm an ’s A ssociation, a n d W estern Pine A ssociation; petroleum , cem ent, a n d copper, U.S. B ureau of M ines; steel, U.S. D e p a rtm e n t of Com m erce a n d A m erican Iro n a n d Steel In s titu te ; electric pow er, Federal Pow er C om m ission; nonagri c u ltu ral a n d m anu factu rin g em ploym ent, U.S. B u reau of L ab o r S ta tistic s a n d co operating s ta te agencies; re ta il food prices, U.S. B ureau of L abor S ta tistics; carloadings, various railroads a n d railroad associations; and foreign trad e , U.S. D e p a rtm e n t of C om m erce. 2 A nnual figures are as of end of year, m onthly figures as of last W ednesday in m onth. 3 D em an d deposits, excluding in te rb a n k and U.S. G o v ern m en t deposits, less cash item s in process of collection. M onth ly d a ta p a rtly e stim ated . 4 D ebits to to ta l d e p o sits except in te rb an k prior to 1942. D eb its to dem and deposits except U.S. G overnm ent a n d in te rb a n k deposits from 1942. 6 D aily a v era g e. 8 A verage ra te s on loans m ade in five m ajor cities, w eighted b y loan size c ategory. 7 N o t a d ju ste d for seasonal v a ria tio n , 8 A new index now com bining n o t only Los Angeles, S an Francisco, a n d S e a ttle food indexes b u t also P o rtlan d . R ew eighted by 1960 C ensus figures on p o p u la tio n of sta n d a rd m etro p o litan areas. 8 C om m ercial cargo only, in physical volum e, for the Pacific C o a st custom s d istric ts plus A laska a n d H aw aii; sta rtin g w ith Ju ly 1950, “ special c ateg o ry " exports are excluded because of security reasons. 10 A laska a n d H aw aii a re included in indexes beginning in 1950. p— P relim inary. r — Revised. * Less th a n 0.5 percent. 12
@FedFRASER