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IDAHO ALASKA TWELFTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT Q xU U M hJL ^ 1 9 6 0 W ASHINGTO N dJue Farm Income on the Downgrade UTAH Review of Business Conditions . REGON CALIFORNIA AR IZO N A NEVADA Farm Income on the Downgrade N our expanding and fluctuating economy, the agricultural sector is continually faced with adjustment problems. Periodically these adjustment problems of a continuing nature are overshadowed by changes within the agri cultural sector which may be independent of the cyclical course of general business ac tivity. Conditions now present in the agricul tural sector suggest that such changes are underway within agriculture as farm prices and income decline while the rest of the econ omy shows signs of strengthening. Net income of the nation’s farm opera tors in 1958 reached the highest point in six years, but has been trending downward in 1959. If an extended reduction in farm in come should materialize, it would not be the first such decline since the end of World War II that began when other sectors of the econ omy were expanding. The consequences, how ever, may be more severe for agriculture than earlier in the postwar period. I Farm prices, marketings, and gross income The level of farm production usually changes only moderately from year to year. This would suggest that minor changes would also occur in gross farm income. However, as shown in Chart 1, changes in farm prices account for much of the annual changes in gross income. Apart from price changes, the relationship between farm production and farm income is modified by additions to or subtractions from farm inventories. For ex ample, an unusually large increase in the production of farm crops will be reflected in increased farm income, if the bumper crops are eligible for price supports. Although di rect marketings may also rise, a substantial proportion of the increased marketings flows into Commodity Credit Corporation inven tories. and, because the level of price support is set prior to planting time, any unusual in crease in yields which boost production is not promptly nor fully reflected in downward price adjustments at the farm level. For ex ample, the 50 percent increase in wheat pro duction (about 500 million bushels) in 1958 helped boost cash receipts above the level re ceived in the previous year as the actual price to growers declined only 11 percent. To a large extent, the decline in price that did occur reflected an earlier reduction in the level of price support for wheat. On the other hand, an unusually small crop, as judged by previous production standards, may result in only a minor strengthening in price because stocks held by the price support agency can, in some cases, be sold on the domestic mar ket at prices which are not much above the support level. For many crops the policy of the Federal Government regarding the level of price support is the major determinant of prices farmers receive. The situation in the livestock sector of agriculture is somewhat different. There are C hart 1 YEAR-TO-YEAR C H A N G E S IN PRICES RECEIVED BY FARMERS A N D REALIZED G R O S S IN C O M E , 1947-1959 “Average for three quarters. bAverage for 11 m onths. Source: U nited States D epartm ent of Agriculture: Agricultural Prices and Farm Incom e Situation. January 1960 MONTHLY no direct price 'supports for major livestock products such as beef and pork. Hence, the price response to changes in the volume of marketings is much greater than for pricesupported crops. Marketings also may vary substantially, but the year-to-year fluctua tions may not be as sharp as in the case of individual crops. This is due largely to the relatively long production period before de cisions to expand meat animal production are reflected in increased marketings. Reduc tions in production, however, are not im peded by biological considerations, but, even if production is reduced, marketings may rise for a period of time as farmers reduce their livestock inventories. As livestock prices are quite flexible, particularly meat animal prices, they are closely associated with changes in gross farm income that stem from price changes, particularly changes which persist for longer than one year, as shown in Chart 2. REVIEW Farm prices and net income Prices paid by farmers for nonfarm goods and services used in agricultural production, including such items as machinery repairs and fuel, have risen 30 percent since 1947-49, thereby tending to exert downward pressure on net farm income. The pressures of these nonfarm cost items have at times been accen tuated or modified depending on fluctuations in the prices received by farmers. Farm prices enter the cost side of farming because sub stantial quantities of agricultural items such as feed, seed, and livestock are involved in transactions between farmers. Since the end of World War II, such transactions have aver aged 50 percent of annual current operating expenditures. Hence, during periods of de clining farm prices, the cost of agricultural based production items also tends to decline and to offset the effects of rising nonfarm C hart 2 PRICES RECEIVED BY FARMERS FOR MEAT A N IM A L S A N D A LL FARM PRODUCTS, M ONTHLY, 1947 TO DATE (1910-1914 = 100) IN DEX N U M BERS 450 400 350 300 250 200 1947 1949 1951 Source :U nited States D epartm ent of Agriculture, Agricultural Prices. 1953 1955 1957 1959 FEDERAL RESERVE B A N K OF S A N F R A N C I S C O prices on net income. On the other hand, if both farm prices and nonfarm costs rise to gether, the upward pressure on production costs is accentuated. It is quite evident from Chart 3 that most of the variability in produc tion expenditures results from price changes of agricultural inputs. When prices received by farmers are de clining, the impact is greatest for those farm ers producing items primarily for sale to other farmers and relying heavily on production items from the nonfarm sector of the econ omy. This is because the offsetting effect on their costs which is associated with declining farm prices is relatively minor, while the re duction in prices they receive has a substan tial effect on their receipts from sales. How ever, these farmers reap the benefits from a rise in farm prices for the same reason. The current situation Farm prices have been trending down ward since the spring of 1958 but were not fully reflected in cash receipts for 1958 be cause of heavier marketings. In addition, the inventory of cattle and calves on the nation’s farms has been increasing this build-up in inventories, cattle marketings are expected to increase considerably in 1960, and beef prices to weaken. Furthermore, hog prices have been declining for a year along with the expansion in hog production which began in the fall of 1958. Gains in pork production may end in 1960 but continuation of a high level of production in 1960 will have a de pressing effect on beef prices, as well as hold ing pork prices at relatively low levels. De clining beef cattle prices, however, are in prospect beyond 1960. Projections of beef cattle numbers which are considered con servative indicate an expansion until 1963 or 1964. If these estimates are correct, they suggest that beef prices will be trending down ward for some time in the future. The cyclical low point in cattle prices usually occurs in the C hart 3 YEAR-TO-YEAR C H A N G E S IN FARM W A G E RATES A N D PRICES PAID BY FA RM ERS FOR N O N F A R M A N D A G R IC U LT U R A L ITEMS (Average unweighted index num bers) 60 ■ 1947 1949 I9SI 1953 I9S5 1957 Source: U nited States D epartm ent of A griculture, Agricultural Prices. contraction phase of the cycle in beef cattle numbers. Crop prices are also lower than last year. The levels of price support for all price-sup ported field crops were reduced in 1959, except for com produced on acreage not in compliance with acreage allotments. Prices for farm crops may be expected to move to lower levels, if the level of price support is adjusted to the point where production will be responsive to market prices. Recent periods of cost-price movements compared The last prolonged period of diverging farm prices and nonfarm prices occurred in 195155. The stage of the livestock cycle now pres ent in agriculture is similar to that which was present in 1951 and 1952 and is reflected in meat animal prices, as shown in C hart 4. Marketings of beef are now increasing and pork marketings should remain heavy in the first half of 1960. The reduction in net income during the 1951-55 period was associated with declining MONTHLY January 1960 prices for livestock products, particularly meat animals. Crop prices also edged downward during this period, although the level of sup port extended to producers of some of the major field crops was actually higher in 1955 than in 1951. The decline in crop prices, how ever, was relatively small, although the prices farmers received for major price-supported crops were considerably above support levels in 1951. Decisions concerning the future level of support for price-supported crops will largely determine whether crop prices, except perhaps corn prices, deter a decline in prices received by farmers from 1958 levels to the extent that they did in the 1951-55 period. If an extended decline in farm prices should materialize, the current financial position of agriculture is much less favorable than in the early stages of the last period of diverging farm prices and nonfarm prices. When farm prices began to decline in 1951, they were much higher in relation to prices paid by farm ers than in recent months. The parity ratio stood at 113 in February of 1951 compared with 82 in the first five months of 1959. More over, farm prices were at their peak in FebC h a rt 4 PRICES RECEIVED BY FARMERS FOR LIVESTOCK A N D LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS, 1950-56 A N D 1957 TO DATE (1910-1914 = 100) IN D EX NU M BERS POO 1950 19*57 1952 1959 1954 1956 Source: United States D epartm ent of Agriculture, Agricultural Prices. REVIEW C h a rt 5 FARMER AND HIS MONEY SOURCE CASH R E C E IP T S M AR KET IN G S □ G O V E R N M E N T /I PA YM EN TS----' » R E A L IZ E D N 0 N M 0 N EV INCOME R EA L IZ ED GROSS FARM INCOME N ET CHANGE H IN in v e n t o r i e s ! | I G RO SS FARM IN CO M E m p o s tr m GROSS FA RM INCOME PRODUCTION E X P E N S E S TOTAL N E T IN C O M E i I i IK N ETCH AN6C H VEN TO R fE S ; 'I R F A U Z E O 1 NET INCOME I (OF FARM OPERATORS) ■% R E A L IZ E D INCOME (N O NM O N EY It* ■ * ! R E A U Z E 0 MONEY INCOME 0 10 20 30 40 B IL L IO N S OF DOLLARS N ote: D ata used in this illustration are from 1958 farm income figures. Source: U nited States D epartm ent of Agriculture, Farm Income Situation ruary 1951. The less favorable relationship between the prices that farmers pay and those they receive may result in substantially higher credit requirements than in 1951-55. In ad dition, farmers’ liquid assets in relation to annual production outlays are lower now than in the early 1950’s. Because farm land values are much higher in relation to net income than in 1951-55, farm land may not be as desirable collateral for farm loans. Further, the ability and the willingness of commercial banks to expand loans, as judged by their free reserve positions or loan to deposit ratios, is not as high as in earlier years. Since farm ers’ liquid assets are also relatively low, the pressure on other farm lending agencies to F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K OF S A N F R A N C I S C O provide credit to farmers may intensify as well as pressure merchants to expand the use of trade credit. With gross farm income apt to decline, some reduction in production expenditure might be expected in an attempt to deter a decline in net income. But judging from past experience this is not likely to happen unless farm income declines sharply. Year-to-year changes in production outlays since the end of World War II have been closely associated with changes in gross farm income. However, because of the stronger upward trend, there have not been reductions between years in the annual level of production expenditures except when year-to-year declines in gross income approached or exceeded $1.4 billion. Annual fluctuations in production expendi tures that have occurred resulted largely from variations in prices paid by farmers and not from the quantity of inputs purchased. Periodic reductions in farm income, which focus attention on the agricultural situation, are generally viewed as evidence of malad justments between agriculture and the rest of the economy. The characteristics of the cur rent reduction in farm income, however, indi cate that it stems largely from maladjustments within agriculture which are temporary in nature, i.e., cycles in livestock production. Fluctuations in livestock numbers are not phenomena which developed with the price support program or any other recent innova tion. There is some evidence of cycles in beef production as early as 1880. Since that early date, there have been changes in the ampli tude and duration of the cycles, but periodic fluctuations in beef cattle numbers still persist. If the current reduction in farm income does stem primarily from circumstances in the live stock sector of agriculture, past experience indicates that the situation will correct itself. Review of Business Conditions flows of steel during December led to a strong resurgence in economic ac tivity. Industrial production rebounded toward the summer high, the revised index of indus trial production reaching 165 percent of the 1947-49 average, one point short of the pre strike peak of 166 and nine points above the level in November. Employment rose more than seasonally during December to a new high for the month, and unemployment de clined slightly in contrast to the usual seasonal rise. Construction put in place, after declining for six months, edged up to an annual rate of $52.6 billion, and contract awards for new buildings also rose. Final settlement of the steel dispute in early January assured a continuous flow of steel and permitted many businesses to more rationally plan their operations. Automobile production, I 6 n c re a se d which rebounded in December, was scheduled to reach 700,000 units in January, the highest monthly volume since the spring of 1955. The still low levels of inventories evident in early January in many lines, prospects of a rise in plant and equipment spending, and strong consumer demand suggest an expansionary tone for the economy in the months immedi ately ahead. A strong demand for credit was evident in December and early January. Bank credit rose more than seasonally in December, although the major part of the increase in bank loans reflected seasonal forces including borrowing for the December 15 tax date. A net increase of more than $500 million in member bank reserves, including about $260 million in vault cash which could be counted as reserves under new rules governing vault cash, was fully ab sorbed by an increase in deposits. Corporate January 1960 MONTHLY REVIEW flotations of securities ran at a high level in D ecem ber, and a sizable, though slightly reduced, volume was scheduled for January. The municipal market was congested in midDecember as dealers found retail demand hesi tant in the face of the uncertainty as to how far the rise in interest rates might proceed. Price reductions cleared part of the inventories and put dealers in a better position to deal with the rather heavy volume of new issues ex pected in January. December closed with interest rates at rec ord levels for the year. A further rise in short term rates occurred in early January. Prices on Government medium- and long-term se curities declined in the first few days of the month, but subsequent to the President’s State-of-the-Union message, which indicated a potentially large surplus for fiscal 1961, prices moved up. The overall result was that in mid-January interest rates were generally above the level in mid-December. Twelfth District activity also expands A ctivity increased in m ost lines in the Twelfth District during December and early January. Though somewhat less important here than nationally, the increased flow of steel led to a resumption or expansion of out put in a number of District industries. Lumber production fell substantially less than usual during December, reflecting a strong demand from retail yards. Partial settlement of the dis pute in copper mining led to the resumption of o u tp u t at some m ines in A rizo n a and Nevada. Construction activity strengthened in part because of increased availability of steel. Retail trade was also stronger in December as more automobiles became available and other lines experienced record pre-holiday sales. Year-end employment sets new high The Twelfth District closed the year 1959 with a further increase (seasonally adjusted) in em ploym ent from the reco rd level of November. Manufacturing employment rose moderately during December, reflecting addi tional recovery from the steel industry work stoppage and unusually high employment in the food canning and lumbering industries for this time of year. However, the District’s major aircraft firms reported another net re duction in their work forces of nearly 5,000 workers, and this was only partly offset by gains in other defense-oriented industries. Largely because of declining aircraft employ ment, overall manufacturing employment in December remained about 0.5 percent below the mid-1959 record. Small employment gains were reported by most nonmanufacturing industries in Twelfth District states during the month. Despite the downturn in residential housing starts since m id-1959, co n stru ctio n em ploym ent has moved up since then, and at year-end reached a new record after seasonal adjustment. Em ployment in the trade and service industries, including government, was also at a peak level during December, but mining employment continued to be depressed by work stoppages at mines and plants of major copper pro ducers. The winter upswing in unemployment was more moderate than usual during December, in part because workers idled as a result of steel shortages were being called back to their jobs by mid-month. With outdoor activity, in cluding lumbering and construction, also be ing maintained at a higher than seasonal level, the rate of unemployment in Pacific Coast states dropped to about 4.4 percent of the labor force, the lowest level since the late summer of 1957. In the second half of De cember and in early January the weather was not so favorable, but it appears, nevertheless, that the more recent rise in unemployment has been no more than seasonal. Lumber demand stronger in December A rise in orders during December, which appeared stronger than the usual year-end F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K OF S A N F R A N C I S C O increase, contributed to a smaller decline in District lumber production than is normally encountered late in the year. The stronger demand situation reflected low inventories in retail yards and a higher level of housing starts nationally than had been previously antici pated. District sawmill production during De cember ran about 10 percent ahead of a year ago. Lum ber prices turned up in December, after registering some seasonal decline in the preceding months, and at year-end were about 7 percent higher than at the close of 1958. Douglas fir plywood prices, which had been increased $4 per thousand square feet in midDecember, were less firm in mid-January, Adequate stocks in the hands of wholesalers and renewed uncertainty over the outlook for home building restrained demand. Equally as important, according to some observers, was the continuation in growth of output capacity. Producers stated that it was difficult to obtain any substantial bookings at $72 for Vi inch sanded plywood and that in some areas, par ticularly California, the market was really $68 per thousand despite a higher posted figure. Steel output continues climb Steel output of District mills reached a level over 90 percent of capacity in December. Pro duction was still under some restraint as one m ajo r p ro d u c er was unable to approach capacity output. The flow of shipments, how ever, was close to pre-strike levels and de mand was strong for almost all products pro duced by District mills. Reinforcing bars were reported as one major exception. Foreign sup plies and temporary slowing of some types of construction appeared to be responsible for this development. Improved supplies of steel permitted increased production schedules in most major steel-using industries. Production resumed at some copper mines A partial settlement of the labor-management dispute in copper was achieved in the last week of December. Workers returned to Kennecott’s mines in Arizona and Nevada in the Twelfth District, and in New Mexico, but workers in Kennecott’s Utah division, which accounts for about two-thirds of Kennecott’s Western Division output, remained on strike. In mid-January, Magma Copper Company reached a settlement and workers returned to the company’s mines and plants in Arizona. Other producers were still negotiating a num ber of issues, other than wages. Continuation of the reduced level of operations in copper has produced some scarcity domestically but through mid-January quoted prices remained unchanged. The world supply of the metal is quite large and substantial price increases are reported as unlikely in the near future. One aftermath of the steel settlement has been a resurgence in the demand for lead and zinc. Final settlement of the steel dispute re sulted in a buying surge for zinc in early Janu ary and prices were increased from 12.5 cents to 13 cents for prime western grades. Lead buying was reported at the best level since August 1959, but prices remained at the re duced 12 cents quotation in effect since late December. Total construction contracts change seasonally, but tightness continues in the home mortgage market Twelfth District construction contracts, as reported by the F. W. Dodge Corporation, declined 18 percent from October to Novem ber. Residential contracts were down by 20 percent, non-residential contracts by 10 per cent, and public works and utilities by 22 percent. A November decline in contracts awarded is typical of past experience for all three of these types of construction. Prelim inary indications for December, however, sug gest a smaller than seasonal decline in heavy construction. In the case of residential con struction, recent weakness was greater than seasonal, reflecting in part continued tightness in the District mortgage market. January 1960 MONTHLY REVIEW The increased cost and reduced availability of mortgage money is evident from several important indicators. FH A applications de clined by 40 percent from October to Novem ber to a level 45 percent below the same month of last year. Eastern savings banks in early January quoted a price of 92 on FHA 5% percent, 30-year maturity, minimum down-payment loans. Some eastern insurance companies quoted higher prices but attached new restrictive credit and property require ments to the loans. The availability of com mitments for conventional mortgages in the District was also reduced. District savings and loan associations, a major source of funds for these mortgages, made a record number of loan commitments in the first half of 1959. The associations found, however, that they had over-committed themselves, since the in flow of new savings capital was insufficient to cover these commitments. As a result, they had to increase their borrowings from the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco and reduce the number of new loan commit ments. That bank, along with other regional banks, recently increased its rate on advances of less than 2 Vz years from 5 percent to 5 V a percent and on advances of 2Vz years or more from 5V2 percent to 5% percent. Because of these developments and a reduced rate of in crease in savings shares in the closing months of 1959, savings and loan associations have been reducing their new mortgage commit ments. Bank loans expand in December Banks were confronted by a strong credit demand during December, and total loans of weekly reporting member banks in the District rose $253 million in the four weeks ending December 30. While a major portion of the rise reflected seasonal forces and the Decem ber 15 tax date, the increase was more than usual. Business loans led the rise with an in crease of $92 million, and sales finance com panies increased their bank borrowings by $54 million. All other types of loans, except loans to banks, also increased during the month. To finance part of the increased loan demand, weekly reporting banks in this Dis trict sold $68 million in securities. Despite the strong demand for bank credit in the closing quarter of 1959, rates on busi ness loans rose only slightly. Average rates on short-term loans increased from 5.54 in the first half of September to 5.57 in the first half of December. The 0.03 percent increase was about one-tenth that in the preceding quarter. The unchanged prime rate over this period may have contributed to this steadiness. Inter est rates on long-term business loans rose more sharply in the closing quarter from 5.28 percent to 5.62 percent. These loans, how ever, accounted for only 3 percent of the dol lar volume reported in December by 24 large banking offices in five major cities of the District. In early January, commercial banks in this District were confronted by a rise in with drawals from savings accounts. Total time de posits of weekly reporting member banks in the District fell by more than $260 million in the first two weeks of January 1960 com pared with $70 million in the same weeks of 1959. Higher rates of returns on Government securities and savings and loan shares induced some investors to shift their savings from time deposits at commercial banks to other types of assets. In particular, the volume of small orders placed by individuals for various types of Treasury securities rose sharply. Retail sales in upswing December retail sales were up sharply in the District from November. A larger volume of automobile sales, as more cars became available, and a greater than seasonal increase in most other trade lines brought dollar vol ume well above the November level. Depart ment store sales, after a slow start in holiday shopping during November, rose about 7 per cent in December, producing a Christmas sea F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K OF S A N F R A N C I S C O son increase of 6 percent over 1958. Total dollar volume at District department stores, after allowance for seasonal forces, was still below the all-time highs recorded in mid summer, but it was the best Christmas on record. The gain in December auto sales over the prior month was less than dealers had ex pected, but inventories were low during most of the month and may have restricted con sumer choices excessively. Record flow of cash to District farmers Following a new high in District cash re ceipts from farm marketings for any October on record, cash receipts in November slipped slightly but were at the highest November level since 1951. For the first 11 months of 1959, District farm cash receipts were about $100 million higher than for any comparable period. The higher level of cash receipts, however, was not general among District states. Only Oregon and California had higher cash re ceipts than a year ago for the 11-month period. The increase in District cash receipts resulted primarily from higher farm returns in Cali fornia, where heavy marketings of cotton have been the chief supporting factor during recent months. Oregon’s increase reflected higher average prices for feed grains, and increased production of fruit, nut, and seed crops. Weak ness in the price of meat animals continued, however, reducing farm receipts in a number of states. Heavy volume of January municipal bond issues Municipal bond offerings by District gov ernmental units swung into high gear in the first half of January, following a virtual ab sence of new flotations in the last part of December. District governmental units had sold $ 164 million in bonds in issues of $5 mil lion or larger by January 18, with another $38 million in prospect later in the month. This $202 million in new bonds represents about a fourth of the offerings scheduled for the nation in January. Attracting most attention was $100 million in State of California bonds which had been postponed from December. This represents the first part of $450 million to be issued by the State in 1960. The January issue, $50 mil lion in Veterans’ bonds and $50 million for State construction, was favorably received and sold out quickly. Net interest cost to the State was 4.0186, compared with the 4.009 percent the State paid last September when it put out a similar issue. California municipal bond yields increased in late December and early January to the high point reached last September. This level is about one-third of a percent higher than a year ago. MONTHLY REVIEW Ja n u a ry 1 9 6 0 BUSINESS INDEXES AND BANKING AND CREDIT STATISTICS—TWELFTH DISTRICT (In d ex es: 1947-1049 = 100. D ollar am onnta in m illion s o f dollars) Total nonagricultural employ ment Industrial production (physical volume)1 Year and month Petroleum* Refined Crude Total mfg employ ment Car loadings (num ber)* Steel* Copper* Electric power 95 40 71 100 114 113 115 116 115 122 120 106 108 87 52 67 99 98 106 107 109 106 106 105 101 94 78 50 63 103 103 112 116 122 119 124 129 132 124 55 27 56 100 112 128 124 131 133 145 156 149 158 24 97 125 146 139 158 128 154 163 172 142 103 17 80 93 115 116 115 113 103 120 131 130 116 29 26 40 108 120 136 145 162 172 192 209 224 229 60 99 103 112 118 121 120 127 134 138 138r '57 97 105 121 130 137 134 143 152 156r 154 102 52 77 94 98 100 100 100 96 104 104 96 89 1958 N ovem ber D ecem ber 114 119 93 93 127 125 159 165 169 164 139 129 238 236 140 140 158 159r 91 97 1959 Ja n u a ry Feb ru ary M arch April M ay Ju n e Ju ly A ugust Septem ber O ctober N ovem ber 121 118 114 114 119 111 119 111 113 114 117 92 92 92 92 92 93 92 92 92 91 91 125 126 128 130 128 128 136 136 132 132 133 161 142 171 178 188 186 192 191 176 186 168 187 102 213 216 205 77 136 138 140 144 148 138 118 76 36 40r 43 240 242 250 250 254 269 267 256 248 141 141 142 143r 143 143 144 144 144 144 145 161 162 164r 164 163 164 166r 163 162 162r 164 98 93 97 94 101 95 88 105 87 71 91 1929 1933 1939 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 Lumber Cement Year and Month 1958 December 1959 January F ebruary M arch April M ay June July A ugust Septem ber O ctober N ovem ber D ecem ber Retail food prices t. 4 Bank rates on short-term business loans* 30 18 31 98 107 112 120 122 122 132 141 140 143r 64 42 47 100 100 113 115 113 113 112 114 118 123 3.66 3.95 4.14 4.09 4.10 4.50 4.97 4.88 150 t148r 124 123 4.95 150 155 155 153 154 161 161 162 154 153 156 124 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 ... . ' 143 Waterborne Foreign Trade Index 1929 1933 1939 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 Dep't store sales (value)* Exports Condition Items of all member banks* Imports Dry Cargo Tanker Total 128 7 97 118 141 136 137 157 163 183 197 213 213 190 110 163 85 91 186 171 140 132 164 199 229 174 150 247 107 87 80 194 200 137 139 176 258 306 210 243 81 108 175 129 145 123 149 117 123 123 124 72 95 121 137 157 199 308 260 308 449 575 537 170 218 101 762 237 153 209 168 161 167 163 189r 171 243 181 204 190 180 188 210 257r 217 228 144 217 139 133 139 96 92 107 504 694 652 600 581 808 603 647 678 ... Dry TotalCargo Tanker Loans and discounts U.S. Gov't securities Demand deposits adjusted’ Total time deposits 4.97 5.2i 5.54 .... --- Bank debits Index 31 cities1* (1947-49= 100)* ‘57 199 88 660 1,836 4,224 2,803 3,594 7,029 10,008 8,986 2,239 1,486 1,967 495 720 1,450 1,234 951 1,983 1,790 1,609 2,267 42 18 30 7,866 8,839 9,220 9,418 11,124 12,613 13,178 13,812 6,463 6,619 6,639 7,942 7,239 6,452 6,619 8,003 9,937 10,520 10,515 11,196 11,864 12,169 11,870 12,729 6,777 7,502 7,997 8,699 9,120 9,424 10,679 12,077 1.32 140 150 1M 172 189 203 209 231 14,589 13,812 8,003 12,729 12,077 224 263 210 378 273 277 302 275 247 269 6,799 13,375 7,810 9,101 8,516 13,990 9,168 11,074 11,344 13,897 14,022 14,176 14,768 15,000 15,328 15,617 15,924 15,978 16,010 16,252 16,537 8,099 7,735 7,436 7,739 7,511 7,329 7,096 6,932 6,717 6,702 6,651 6,673 12,508 12,210 12,228 12,874 12,520 12,589 12,945 12,797 12,850 12,963 13,133 13,375 12,037 12,018 12,003 12,301 12,399 12,517 12,390 12,378 12,365 12,316 12,138 12,452 218 235 244 241 231 235 242 241 238 232 251 236 1A djusted for Beasonal variation, except where Indicated. E x cep t for d e p artm e n t Btore statistics, all indexes are b ased upon d a ta from outside sources, ae follows: lum ber, C alifornia Redwood Association a n d U.S. B ureau of th e C ensus; petroleum , cem ent, and copper, U.S. B u reau of M ines; steel, U.S. D ep artm en t of Com m erce and A m erican Iron and Steel In stitu te ; electric power, Federal Pow er C om m ission; nonagrioultural and m anufacturing em ploym ent, U.S. B ureau of L *bor S ta tistics and cooperating sta te agencies; re ta il food prices, U.S. B ureau of L abor S tatistics; carloadings, various railroads a n d railroad associations; and foreign trad e, U.S. B u reau of th e Census. * D aily average. 1 N o t ad ju ste d for seasonal variation. * Los Angeles, San Francisco, a n d S e a ttle indexes com bined. 5 Com m ercial cargo only, in physical volum e, for Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego, Oregon, and W ashington custom s distric ts; sta rtin g w ith July 1950, “ special category” exports are excluded because of security reasons. fl A nnual figures are as of end of year, m onthly figures as of la st W ednesday in m onth. 7 D em and deposits, excluding in te rb an k a n d U.S. G ov’t deposits, less cash item s in process of collection. M onth ly d a ta p a rtly estim ated. 8 A verage ra te s on loans m ade in five m ajo r cities, w eighted by loan size category. • C hanges from end of previous m o n th or year. 10 M inus sign indicates flow of funds o u t of th e D istric t in th e case of com m ercial operations, a n d excess of receipts over disbursem ents in th e case of T rea su ry operations. 11 E n d of year a n d end of m o n th figures. 12 D ebits to to ta l deposits except in te rb an k prior to 1942. D ebits to dem and deposits except U.S. G overnm ent and in te rb an k deDosits from 1942, e— E stim ated. r— R evised.
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