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TWELFTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT FEDERAL RESERVE January BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO Review of Business C o n d it io n s ........... 2 The Twelfth District Lumber Production I n d e x ............................ 6 Review of Business Conditions y ear 1958 was ushered out in an at m osphere of w idespread public optim ism . Incom e and o u tp u t at the close of the year attained new highs m easured in current dol lar values, and ab o u t equalled previous rec ords in real term s. Industrial p roduction and to tal em ploym ent w ere clim bing to the year’s top levels in the final quarter, and a num ber of o th er key econom ic indicators reached alltim e records. H ow ever, the optim ism engen dered by these developm ents is m oderated by problem s w hich continue as rem nants of the recession. T he decline in unem ploym ent has n o t been so large as hoped for, and the cu rren t u n dercapacity rate of plant utiliza tion is active as a brake on business invest m ent. R ecen t m ovem ents in price indexes have not suggested the presence of p articular ly strong inflationary forces, b u t the obvious buoyancy of the stock m arket and the op en ing of im p o rtan t wage contracts over the next several m onths, together w ith the continuing im provem ent in business, could well cause som e change in this price stability. T he Construction activity closes year at record level T he value of new construction p u t in place during D ecem ber rose fu rth er to a best-ever annual rate of $53.7 billion,1 with outlays fo r private residential housing and G overn m ent buildings and highways topping previous records. T his constitutes a gain of $1.2 bil lion from N ovem ber and of $7.2 billion from the y ear’s low in M ay. M ost of the dollar advance represents a real increase in activity, since construction cost indexes have shown general stability over the past several m onths. Costs are above year-ago levels by an aver age of alm ost 1.5 percent, however. T he volum e of contracts aw arded in N o vem ber— an indicator of construction activity 1 All data are adjusted for seasonal fluctuations except where otherwise indicated. in com ing m onths— eased m ore th an season ally from the high sum m er level, b u t rem ained above the year-ago volum e by about 9 p er cent. N ew utility and residential projects ac counted for m ost of the decline in N ovem ber contract aw ards. A w ards fo r m anufacturing buildings have not yet strengthened m uch from recession lows. Industrial production reaches year’s high A fter a vigorous three point gain in N ovem ber, the F ederal R eserve B oard index of in dustrial production increased one point fu r ther during D ecem ber to the year’s high, 142 percent of the 1947-49 average. N onferrous m etals production rose generally during D e cem ber, although steel o u tp u t fell slightly from the N ovem ber rate. A utom obile assem blies clim bed to the highest level of the year despite a w ork stoppage at one m ajor p ro ducer for m ost of the m onth. E xcept for m od els of this producer, new car stocks in dealers’ hands were generally adequate by the end of D ecem ber and there was som e reduction in overtim e at auto plants as the year closed. T he rise in dealer holdings which began d u r ing N ovem ber helped reverse the fourteenm onth dow ntrend in inventories of m anufac turing and trade firms. Similarly, total busi ness sales of these establishm ents increased to $56.2 billion in N ovem ber, a high for the year to th a t point. Because of the recovery in sales and in creasing productivity, net profits after taxes of U nited States m anufacturing corporations rose $500 million in the third q u arter of 1958 to $3.3 billion.1 A bout half of the recession’s $1.6 billion drop in the quarterly profit rate of m anufacturers was thus regained, and an additional advance appears to have occurred in the fourth quarter. T here was also an im 1Not seasonally adjusted. January 1959 MONTHLY provem ent in corporate liquidity in the third quarter. T hrough the end of N ovem ber, unfilled o rd er backlogs of m anufacturing firms had n o t changed appreciably from their low in M ay. U ndoubtedly contributing to th e lack of im provem ent in o rd er backlogs has been the d rop in D efense D epartm ent orders from $6 billion in the second q u arter of 1958 (re flecting efforts to counteract the recession) to about $2.4 billion in the th ird quarter. E x isting productive capacity of m anufacturing firms is still generally greater th an th at re quired fo r the current level of o utput, a fac to r w hich assures producers of ready supplies and tends to m oderate the outlook for new p lan t and equipm ent investm ent during 1959. N evertheless, the developm ents noted above in profits and liquidity m ay be favorable to an increase in fixed investm ent. Consum er spending brisk at year-end C onsum er spending at retail stores took a sharp u p tu rn during D ecem ber after lagging behind gains in incom e for m ost of 1958. R e tail sales in the closing m onth surpassed the previous high in July 1957 by alm ost $500 m illion to reach a m onthly to tal of $17.5 bil lion. Sales at d epartm ent stores, w ith an u n paralleled C hristm as buying spree, were up 8 percent from a year ago during the last four weeks of 1958. Purchases of new autom o biles also contributed to the rise in total retail sales— about 48 9 ,0 0 0 were sold during D e cem ber, the best m onth since A ugust 1957. Certainly the grow th in personal income has played an im p o rtan t p a rt in m aintaining consum er buying. A fter dipping slightly in O c tob er because of wage and salary losses d u r ing labor disputes, personal incom e reached a record rate of $360.0 billion in N ovem ber. In D ecem ber, however, a slight decline oc cu rred as a fall in dividend and transfer pay m ents m ore than offset increased wages and salaries. D espite the higher level of personal REVIEW incom e, purchasing pow er in D ecem ber was about the sam e as in m id-1957, due to price increases th at have occurred since th at time. M oreover, on a p er capita basis, personal in com e was about 2Vz percent low er th an in m id-1957, as the n ation’s population grow th has been alm ost undim inished. T he num ber of nonfarm wage and salary workers increased m oderately in N ovem ber but dipped in D ecem ber prim arily because of early curtailm ent of outdoor activities in m any E astern areas. M oreover, nonfarm em ploy m ent rem ained m ore than 3 percent below the prerecession peak. U nem ploym ent, at 5.9 p er cent of the labor force in N ovem ber, increased m oderately to 6.1 percent in D ecem ber. A ggregate price changes were slight during N ovem ber and D ecem ber at both consum er and wholesale levels. W holesale prices of farm products and processed foods eased season ally, while industrial prices rose to a new high in D ecem ber. A t the retail level, w hat might be called a seasonal rise in autom obile prices occurred as the new m odels were introduced, M easures at han d indicate th at recovery from the business slum p was even further ad vanced by year’s end in the Tw elfth D istrict than in the rest of the nation. The m ost com prehensive indicator available, the num ber of em ployed nonfarm wage and salary workers, reached a new high by N ovem ber and an ad ditional gain occurred in D ecem ber. A s noted above, nonfarm em ploym ent nationally d u r ing the sam e period was still 3 percent below its prerecession peak. D istrict mine and fac tory production, though still som ew hat be low previous record am ounts, exceeded o u t put of the corresponding year-ago m onths in N ovem ber and D ecem ber, and construc tion activity increased fu rth er to a new record level. N evertheless, as in other parts of the F E DE RAL R E S E R V E B A N K O F S A N nation, unem ploym ent rem ained relatively high despite a sm aller-than-usual increase at the advent of w inter. As m ight be expected during a recovery period, the largest percentage increases in em ploym ent during the last two m onths of 1958 w ere m ade in industries w hich had p re viously been m ost severely affected by the re cession— m ining and m anufacturing. M ost of the im provem ent in m ining em ploym ent oc curred am ong coal and nonferrous metals producers in A rizona, Idaho, and U tah. Durable go o d s firms score solid ga in s Tw elfth D istrict m anufacturing firms in creased em ploym ent by ab o u t 1 percent in each of the last tw o m onths o f 1958, with m ost of the gain occurring at durable goods firms. D efense-related m anufacturing firms (includ ing som e aircraft, electronics, and ordnance establishm ents) m ade substantial additions to their payrolls. A ssem bly lines fo r the last piston-driven aircraft w ere being shut down as the industry continued to convert to the production of com m ercial jet planes. Total Pacific C oast aircraft em ploym ent exceeded the year-ago level in D ecem ber, b u t was still 2 8,000 below the m id-1957 figure. B oth the longer-term losses and recent increases reflect the shift of defense ordering from m anned air craft to guided missiles. E m ploym ent at elec trical equipm ent firms was alm ost at its pre vious peak level and ordnance payrolls reached a new high. A utom obile assem bly plants in C alifornia increased em ploym ent by m ore th an 6,000 w orkers betw een m id-O ctober and m id-N ovem ber after settlem ent of nationw ide labor disputes, but only a slight fu rth er increase oc cu rred in D ecem ber. E m ploym ent losses at C alifornia autom obile plants over the past year am ount to about 3,700 w orkers. M etals producers added w orkers in N ovem ber and, to a lesser extent, in D ecem ber, but their em ploym ent was still alm ost 3 percent below FRANCISCO year-ago levels. In D ecem ber, Tw elfth D istrict steel output reached the highest total since m id-1957, and on a daily average basis this was only slightly under the N ovem ber index of 168. A lum inum plants in the Pacific N o rth west, though adding slightly to th eir w ork forces, were reported to be operating at less than 80 percent of capacity as the quarter closed. E m ploym ent in the lum ber and w ood p ro d ucts industry in N ovem ber and D ecem ber was the highest since early 1957, although lum ber output was easing slightly from the O ctober level. T he usual m id-D ecem ber spurt in new orders brought som e strength to lum ber prices, b u t end-of-the-m onth develop m ents were clouded by holiday shutdow ns. T he m arket for plyw ood gave evidence of general price stability at year’s end. P ro tracted holiday shutdow ns w ere announced by a num ber of m ajor plyw ood producers in an attem pt to preserve this stability and to prevent a recurrence of sharp price fluctua tions such as those of early 1958. E m ploym ent changes at nondurable goods m anufacturing firms were slight during N o vem ber and D ecem ber, b u t those w hich oc curred were m ainly in an upw ard direction. Indeed, the sam e may be said fo r m ost serv ice-type industries— finance, insurance, and real estate firms, m iscellaneous service firms, and F ederal, state, and local governm ents. A lthough these latter industries contributed m uch to the em ploym ent gain over the past twelve m onths, their expansion slowed as the year ended. Construction high but levelling of? T he only other econom ic sector to show substantial grow th over the p ast year has been contract construction in w hich, by D e cem ber, em ploym ent alm ost equalled the rec ord closing m onths of 1956. T here was little fu rther em ploym ent expansion in D ecem ber, however, and had there not been unusually w arm and dry w eather in C alifornia, em ploy January 1959 MONTHLY REVIEW m ent m ight actually have declined. M ore over, the F. W. D odge C orporation reports th a t the volum e of aw ards fo r new construc tion projects declined in N ovem ber. A lthough seasonal influences on aw ards for residential and nonresidential buildings accounted for m ost of the decline, there was a furth er fall in heavy construction. In this group, only awards fo r streets and highways have show n a sub stantial gain during 1958, largely because of accelerated progress und er the Federal high way program . District Christmas trade sparkles W holesale and retail trad e em ploym ent ex panded seasonally during N ovem ber and D e cem ber, and a record sales volum e was indi cated at retail stores during the Christm as season. D epartm ent store sales in the Twelfth D istrict during the last nine weeks of 1958 were u p 7 percent above the sam e period in 1957. N ew spaper reports indicate general satisfaction am ong o th er types of retailers also. A uto registrations in C alifornia during D ecem ber reached the highest m onthly total since Septem ber 1955. T he general advance in econom ic activity led to a sharp d rop in unem ploym ent during N ovem ber and D ecem ber. A fter reaching a high of 7.5 percent of the lab o r force during A ugust, the unem ploym ent rate in the three Pacific C oast states dropped to about 5.4 p e r cent by the y ear’s end— the sam e as in D e cem ber 1957. D uring m ost of 1957, however, unem ploym ent in these three states was less than 4 percent of the lab o r force. In other D istrict states, less-than-seasonal increases in unem ploym ent insurance claim s also indi cate a striking im provem ent by the end of 1958. Real estate loans underscore the December advance in bank credit T otal loans at weekly reporting banks in the D istrict rose by $ 168 m illion in the four weeks ended D ecem ber 31, 1958, a four-fold increase over the expansion registered in D e cem ber of the previous year. Business loans turned up slightly less th an seasonally, clim b ing $55 m illion (com pared with a rise of $82 million in D ecem ber of 1957) and these stood at virtually the sam e level at the end of the m onth as they had a year earlier. Two groups of business borrow ers, public utilities and transportation firms, seem to account for the sm aller expansion in Decem ber, m aking net repaym ents of $27 m illion in 1958 where they had increased their borrow ings at re porting banks in 1957 by about the same am ount. L oans to com m odity dealers were down $6 million in D ecem ber 1958 while they had increased $20 m illion in 1957. T he seasonal borrow ers who had sus tained the dem and fo r com m ercial and in dustrial loans during the autum n of 1958 were engaged in retiring their ban k debt in D ecem ber. Loans to food and liquor process ors declined by $10 million. Com m odity dealers, as already m entioned, generally ex hibit a pronounced reduction in their bank borrow ings at this tim e of year. Similarly, loans to retail trading firms show a seasonal p attern w hich reaches a peak during D ecem ber and then starts down. In D ecem ber 1958 retail firms decreased their net borrowings by $17 m illion, about half of the decline in the previous year. Sales finance com panies in creased their loans outstanding by $39 m il lion, a little less th an the reduction of this type of loan in D ecem ber 1957. Sm aller in creases were posted by metals and m etal products producers, whose loans m oved ahead by $4 m illion. L oans to the m etal w orking industries are of particular im por ta n c e - f ir s t because they m ake up about a sixth of total business loans and secondly b e cause of their great sensitivity to changes in the business climate. R eal estate loans continue to provide the principal stim ulus to an expansion of bank loans as they have through m ost of 1958. In FE DE R AL R ES E R V E B A N K OF S A N D ecem ber, real estate loans at the reporting banks advanced $74 million, nearly seven times the increase for the same m onth in 1957. E ven m ore striking is a com parison of the changes in the category of “o th e r” lo a n s: in D ecem ber 1958, “o th er” loans, w hich in clude loans fo r consum er expenditures, rose $43 m illion com pared w ith an increase of $1 m illion a y ear earlier. P a rt of this rise might be attributed to sales of new autom obiles. T here w ere also nom inal changes in agricul tu ra l loans and loans for the purpose of carrying securities. FRANCISCO D em and deposits rose by $219 m illion, al m ost double the gain registered in D ecem ber 1957. T im e deposits resum ed the expansion which was in evidence throughout m ost of the year, b u t which slowed in O ctober and de clined in N ovem ber. Such deposits increased by $303 m illion in D ecem ber, o r about 10 percent m ore than in 1957. T here was a net increase of $63 m illion in U nited States se curities held by D istrict reporting banks d u r ing D ecem ber as these banks decreased their holdings of T reasury bills while adding cer tificates, notes, and bonds to their portfolios. The Twelfth District Lumber Production Index the fact th at the W est possesses only about 24 percent of the country’s com m ercial forest area and em ploys a rela tively sm all portion of the lum ber industry’s w orkers, the Tw elfth D istrict accounts for about half of the total U nited States lum ber o utput. (C h a rt 1) Extrem ely favorable tem peratu re and rainfall in W ashington, Oregon, and N orth ern C alifornia account for the dis prop o rtio n ate o u tp u t of this region. N ot only does the W est contribute a signifi cant share to the country’s stock of structural raw m aterial, but am ong the industries of the D istrict this is one of the greatest w ealth pro ducers. A t the present tim e about one out of every eight m anufacturing w orkers in Pacific C oast states is engaged in the production of lum ber and wood products, with a still small but grow ing p roportion w orking in plants producing plyw ood and other processed wood products. In 1956, the m ost recent year for which such m easures are available, lum ber and wood products accounted for 10 percent of total value added and 9 percent of wages e s p ite D and salaries earned in m anufacturing in P a cific C oast states. In the case of O regon, these percentages are particularly high: 19 and 18 percent, respectively, since lum ber is th at state’s m ost im portant industry. H ence, the lum ber index published by this bank is an im portant indication both of n a tional and D istrict business health. This note describes the index and its construction. D ouglas fir, ponderosa pine, and redw ood are am ong the m ost com m on species found in the West. A ccording to the U nited States D epartm ent of A griculture, in recent years the largest m arket fo r m ost of these woods is construction, which absorbs about 82 percent of output. The rem ainder is channeled into shipping containers (15 percen t) and m iscel laneous m anufactured products (3 p erc e n t). M ost lum ber products used in construction are consum ed in hom e building and conse quently output in the Tw elfth D istrict gener ally tends to move in the sam e direction as housing starts in the nation. (C h art 2 ) R e cently, lum ber production has show n signs of January 1959 MONTHLY REVIEW C hart 1 R E S O U R C E AND L A B O R D I S T R I B U T I O N U N I T E D S T A T E S L U M B E R I NDUS T RY A B C D N ote: West includes eleven Western states and coastal Alaska. A, Growing stock volume; B, Sawtimber volume; C, Com mercial forest area; D, Employment in lumber and wood products industry (based on 1957 Bureau of Labor Statistics employment data). Source: United States Department of Agriculture, Forest Serv ice, Timber Resources jor America's Future, January 1958. turning u p after a long slide dating from 1955. H ow ever, as was the case in the 1955 housing boom , an increase in the construction usage of lum ber has been partially m et by re ducing inventories b o th at the mills and in distribution channels. It m ay also be the case th a t plyw ood and lum ber substitutes have m ade fu rth er inroads into the construction m arket. Twelfth District lumber index This b ank publishes a m onthly index of lum ber production fo r the Tw elfth D istrict which is com puted from the figures m ade available by the U nited States D epartm ent of C om m erce and the C alifornia R edw ood A s sociation; it does not include the production of plyw ood and other lum ber substitutes. The index is a percentage of the daily average of lum ber output in the years 1947-49 and is adjusted for seasonal variation. T here are three producing regions in the W est. W ith reference to geographical area and not to the individual species, these are: 1) W estern Pine, which includes all softwoods in W ashington and O regon east of the Cas cades and all softwood produced in Califor nia (except in the 12 northw estern coastal co u n ties), A rizona, C olorado, Idaho, M on tana, N evada, New M exico, South D akota, U tah, and W yoming; 2 ) Douglas Fir o r W est Coast L um ber, including all softwoods in W ashington and O regon west of the C as cades, as well as Jackson and Josephine coun ties in O regon; and 3 ) R edw ood, all soft woods in the 12 northw estern coastal coun ties of California. In order to arrive at a figure which repre sents total production in the Tw elfth D istrict, certain adjustm ents have to be made to the data for W estern Pine and R edw ood. N o p a r ticular problem exists with respect to data for Douglas F ir, since inform ation m ade available by the U nited States D epartm ent of Com m erce corresponds in its coverage to the area surveyed by the 1954 Census of M anu factures and represents purely D istrict data. D ouglas F ir accounts for about 50 percent of the index. T he W estern Pine production figures as re leased by the D epartm ent of Com m erce in clude data from several areas outside the Tw elfth D istrict. E stim ates based on the 1954 Census survey put this figure at approxi m ately 15 percent of the total W estern Pine production. Thus, in order to m ake the data represent the Tw elfth D istrict, it is necessary to reduce the reported figures by that am ount. In the case of R edw ood, figures are sup plied by the C alifornia R edw ood A ssocia tion for 14 m em ber com panies. A n estim ate for the entire region is m ade by expanding these sam ples on the basis of inform ation found in the 1954 Census of M anufactures. T he inherent weakness in this m ethod is that while the proportion of total output ac counted for by the reporting com panies may vary from m onth to m onth, the “blow -up” factor, based on annual data, rem ains con- FE DE R AL R E S E R V E B A N K O F S A N FRANCISCO C hart 2 DISTRICT 1947 - 4 9 = 100 160 LUMBER SEASONALLY P R O D U C T I O N AND U.S. H O U S I N G ADJUSTED QUARTERLY AVERAGES OF M O N T H L Y STARTS DATA p 140 120 1951 1953 1955 1957 STRIKE stant. Insofar as the variations correspond to seasonal p attern s, the erro r tends to be m inim ized; how ever, there is no apparent rea son for assum ing th at the irregular produc tion schedules of the nonreporting firms con form closely to seasonal patterns. Thus, the R edw ood figure is som ew hat less reliable than those for the oth er tw o regions. This p ro b lem is not serious for the total index, how ever, since lum ber produced by the R edw ood regions represents only about 15 percent of the D istrict total. T he total lum ber index, despite shortcom ings th a t m ay derive from estim ating p ro cedures used, is a reasonably accurate indi cato r of an im portant segm ent of D istrict eco nom ic activity. W hen viewed along w ith the other selected business indexes it provides a useful addition to our knowledge of the cu r ren t business situation. N ow available upon w ritten request to this Bank is the Distribution of Bank Deposits by Counties and Standard M etropolitan Areas as of Ju n e 23, 1958, pub lished by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Decem ber 1958. January 1959 FE DE RAL R E S E R V E B A N K O F S A N FRANCISCO BUSINESS INDEXES — TWELFTH DISTRICT1 (1947-49 a v erag e = 100) Year and month Industrial production (physical volume)* Lumber Petroleum* Crude Refined Cement Total nonagrlcultural employ ment Dep’t store Retail food prices Waterborne foreign trade*’ 5 Total mf'g employ ment Car loadings (num ber)* 102 52 77 94 98 100 100 100 96 104 104 96 30 18 31 98 107 112 120 122 122 132 141 141 64 42 47 100 100 113 115 113 113 112 114 118 190 110 163 85 91 186 171 140 131 164 195 230 124 72 95 121 137 157 200 308 260 308 443 575 Steel* Copper* Electric power 29 26 40 108 119 136 144 161 172 192 210 224 99 103 112 118 121 120 127 134 138 ‘ '55 97 105 120 130 137 134 143 152 157 (value)* 1, < Exports Imports 1929 1933 1939 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1965 1956 1957 95 40 71 100 113 113 116 118 116 121 120 107 87 52 67 99 98 106 107 109 106 106 105 101 78 50 63 103 103 112 116 122 119 122 129 132 54 27 56 100 112 128 124 130 132 145 156 149 24 97 125 146 139 158 128 154 163 172 105 17 80 93 115 116 115 113 103 120 131 130 1957 N ovem ber D ecem ber 103 100 101 101 131 124 146 139 149 143 128 128 222 216 137 137 152 151 95 93 139 139 118 119 210 178 582 610 1958 Jan u a ry February M arch April M ay June Ju ly A ugust Septem ber October N ovem ber 107 105 104 97 103 100 102 109 109 113 114 100 97 95 94 93 93 92 93 93 93 93 122 114 119 119 124 123 127 128 129 130 127 135 112 112 129 176 178 179 179 179 186 159 132 134 139 132 139 140 112 132 148 152 168 126 128 125 120 106 101 79 91 119 132 139 223 221 226 218 227 234 232 232 228 238 137 136 136 135 135 136 137 137 138 138 139 150 149 148 147 147 148 149 150 150 151 153 94 86 87 87 90 90 84 92 94 81 91 132 135 137 142 142 143 140 148 140 141 149 121 121 123 125 124 124 124 123 123 123 124 163 149 160 171 193 190 180 181 178 393 358 422 445 468 617 602 513 607 BANKING AND CREDIT STATISTICS — TWELFTH DISTRICT (a m o u n ts in m illions of d o lla rs) Condition Items of all member banks4 Year and month Loans and discounts U.S. Gov't securities Demand deposits adjusted7 Total time deposits Member bank reserves and related Items Bank rates on short-term business loans* Factors affecting reserves: Reserve bank credit* Commer cial 10 Treasury1* + — 34 2 2 21 7 14 2 38 52 31 89 0 - 110 - 192 -1 ,5 8 2 -1 ,9 1 2 -3 ,0 7 3 -2 ,4 4 8 -2 ,6 8 5 -3 ,2 5 9 -4 ,1 6 4 -3 ,5 5 8 + 23 + 150 + 245 +1,983 +2,265 +3,158 +2,328 +2,757 +3,274 +3.903 +3,645 - 18 - 454 + 16 12 62 43 11 59 52 2 4 0 48 125 + - 258 427 180 391 203 409 384 15 378 517 305 121 + + + + + + + + + + + + _ 1929 1933 1939 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 2,239 1,486 1,967 7,866 8,839 9,220 9,418 11,124 12,613 13,178 13,819 495 720 1,450 6,463 6,619 6,639 7,942 7,239 6,452 6,619 8,032 1,234 951 1,983 9,937 10,520 10,515 11,196 11,864 12,169 11,870 13,008 1,790 1,609 2,267 6,777 7,502 7,997 8,699 9,120 9,424 10.679 12,075 3.66 3.95 4.14 4.09 4.10 4.50 4.97 4.88 1957 D ecember 13,178 6,619 11,870 10,679 5.13 1958 Jan u ary F ebruary M arch A pril M ay June Ju ly A ugust Septem ber O ctober N ovem ber D ecem ber 13,106 13,002 12,860 12,979 12,977 13,197 13,142 13,356 13,350 13,419 13,591 13,819 6,573 6,884 7,075 7,605 7,546 7,632 7,670 7,984 7,827 7,846 8,026 8,032 11,601 11,305 11,225 11,570 11,292 11,278 11,744 11,774 11,860 12,176 12,395 13,008 10,992 11,183 11,406 11,530 11,724 11,779 11,817 11,776 11,836 11,725 12,075 — 10,761 + + + + — 4.95 + + -t- 4.81 4.80 4.95 + + + + Money in circu lation* _ Reserves11 Bank debits Index 31 cities8*1* (1947-49= 100)* + 6 18 31 189 132 39 30 100 96 83 63 175 185 584 2,269 2,514 2,551 2,505 2,530 2,654 2,686 2,658 42 18 30 132 140 150 154 172 189 203 209 480 - 23 2,686 217 180 298 253 371 154 531 302 193 157 726 398 80 — 137 17 11 2 90 22 4 46 31 57 31 46 2,662 2,520 2,530 2,574 2,456 2,494 2,474 2,621 2,451 2,612 2,727 2,658 203 198 206 193 212 211 204 210 215 208 239 __ + + + + + — + + + + + + + + 211 1 A djusted for seasonal variation, except where indicated. E xcept for departm ent store statistics, all indexes are based upon d a ta from outside sources, as follows: lum ber, California Redwood Association and U.S. B ureau of the Census; petroleum , cem ent, and copper, U.S. B ureau of M ines; steel, U.S. D ep artm en t of Commerce and American Iron and Steel In stitu te; electric power, Federal Pow er Commission; nonagricultural and m anufacturing em ploym ent, U.S. Bureau of L abor S tatistics an d cooperating state agencies; retail food prices, U.S. B ureau of Labor Statistics; carloadings, various railroads and railroad associations; and foreign trade, U.S. B ureau of the Census. 1 D aily average. * N ot a d ju sted for seasonal variation. * Los Angeles, San Francisco, and S eattle indexes combined. 6 Commercial cargo only, in physical volume, for Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego, Oregon, and W ashington custom s d istricts; startin g w ith July 1950, “ special category” exports are excluded because of security reasons. 8 A nnual figures are as of end of year, m onthly figures as of la st W ednesday in m onth. 7 D em and deposits, excluding interbank and U.S. G ov’t deposits, less cash item s in process of collection. M onthly d a ta p artly estim ated. 8 Average rates on loans m ade in five m ajor cities. 9 Changes from end of previous m onth or year. 10 M inus sign indicates flow of funds o u t of the D istric t in the case of commercial operations, and excess of receipts over disbursem ents in th e case of T reasury operations. 11 E nd of year and end of m onth figures. 12 D ebits to to ta l deposits except interbank prior to 1942. D ebits to dem and deposits except U.S. G overnm ent and interbank deposits from 1942. p— Prelim inary. r— Revised. 8A
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