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MONTHLY REVIEW TWELFTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT Fe d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k J a n u a r y 1951 of S a n Fr a n c i s c o REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS n d u s t r ia l production, consumer spending, and busi Iness activity generally continued to exceed year-ago levels by substantial margins in December and January. In some cases the normal seasonal declines did not occur because of attempts to produce goods and services at the maximum rate possible. In December, nonagricultural employment in the United States increased over Novem ber and was 4 percent ahead of the same month in 1949. Inflationary pressures continued to result in a steadily rising level of prices which reached a new high in each week through early January. The behavior of production, employment, and prices points up the unusually high rate of expenditures by business and consumers resulting from the anticipation of larger military expenditures and the likelihood that civilian supplies of some goods may be reduced. Increasing emphasis on military expansion was appar ent from the reorganization of the mobilization organiza tion in December. Late in December, the Office of De fense Mobilization was established to obtain closer co ordination of the several departments and agencies. In addition, a Defense Production Administration was established to coordinate the production activities of the several agencies in various departments of the Govern ment. Defense budget grows substantially Perhaps the best indication of the increasing impor tance of the defense effort over the longer run may be ob tained from the Budget of the President delivered to Con gress in early January. Expenditures for current military operations, which do not include such items as foreign military assistance, the atomic energy program, veterans' affairs, or interest on the public debt resulting from past wars, are estimated at approximately $21 billion for the fiscal year ending June 1951, compared with $12 billion for the preceding year. The figure will nearly double for the fiscal year ending June 1952, with military spending estimated to be in excess of $41 billion. This is $1 billion more than the total civilian and military expenditure for the year ending June 1950. Estimated expenditures alone, however, do not reveal entirely the emphasis on military expansion. The President’s budget calls for authoriza tions for military functions of approximately $61 billion for fiscal 1952. Authorizations in a given fiscal year for programs of Government activity that are expanding, such as our military program, frequently exceed the actual expenditures on such programs in the same year because the authorizations contemplate developments ex tending beyond that fiscal year. Even with the substantial increase in spending on de fense, the budget deficit for the year ending June 1951 is estimated at only $2.7 billion. This comparatively small deficit reflects the effect of the rising level of personal and corporate income and the increases in personal and cor porate income taxes approved by Congress. It is possible that yields from taxes may prove somewhat greater than anticipated, thereby reducing the actual deficit below the present estimate. In the coming fiscal year, that ending in June 1952, the estimate of the budget deficit is almost $16.5 billion, and it has been proposed that this deficit be closed by additional taxes. Impact of recent developments on the Twelfth District Reports from various sources indicate that the Twelfth District will again be host to a substantial expansion in plant and equipment as a result of the expanded military program. It is likely, however, that the impact will not be as spectacular as it was in W orld W ar II. It is the inten tion of the various agencies involved in the defense effort to disperse facilities as widely as possible. For example, it has often been stated that no new aircraft plants would be assigned to the West Coast. At the same time, however, utilization of existing facilities will continue. In addition, District plant and facilities have expanded considerably during the postwar period. As a result, productive capac ity exists which can be useful for many defense purposes. To support such activities as aircraft, however, and to utilize the output of such industries as aluminum, addi- Also in This Issue Some Allies in the Fight Against Inflation Indexes of Pacific Coast Waterborne Trade 2 FEDERAL RESERVE B A N K OF SAN FRAN CISCO tional facilities will be required. Various public and pri vate agencies in this District report a large volume of inquiries concerning the location of plants. Some of the inquiries are for plants that would make primarily civilian products, but a fair proportion involve capacity that could be used for either civilian or military goods. Added to this source of increased activity is the reactivation of Government-owned facilities. A magnesium plant in Cali fornia is to be reopened, and it appears likely that some Government-owned shipyards may be reactivated. In addition, the events of recent months have induced many firms to carry out plans which they already had for expansion or the construction of new facilities. The pres sure created by the fear of material shortages and con trols has hastened the execution of many such programs. This is evident from the figures on new building author ized. Nonresidential permits in urban areas of this Dis trict hit an all time peak in August, declined in Septem ber, but rose again in October and November. The No vember level was only slightly below the peak in August and preliminary figures indicate that the December level of nonresidential construction authorized may have ex ceeded the August level. The rapidly increasing volume of permits for business structures has more than offset the decline in residential building. As a result, total per mits in urban areas have gained instead of showing the usual seasonal decline. The National Production Author ity order of mid-January restricting all commercial con struction will probably reduce the volume of nonresiden tial building, but it is difficult to estimate the extent of the reduction at this time. Consumer spending continues high Consumers have also been adding to the pressure on the price level by spending at a record rate. After the scare buying of last July and August, consumer spending moderated somewhat but remained well above 1949 levels. Restrictions on consumer credit, introduced in September and strengthened in October, reduced the buy ing of durable goods somewhat. Sales of automobiles, par ticularly of used cars, were expected to decline more than those of other durable items, but even after the terms were tightened in October the 1950 record compares fa vorably with that of 1949. The number of new cars sold in California in July, August, and September ran about 55 percent above the level of the corresponding period of 1949. October sales dropped to a level slightly above that of October 1949, and November sales were slightly below the year-ago level. The adverse turn of the war in Korea again stimulated the sales of automobiles and other dur able goods, with the result that sales of new cars in Cali fornia in December ran about 10 percent ahead of De cember 1949. The demand for automobiles and other durable goods continued to gain in strength during January. It is based upon a high level of personal income, large holdings of liquid assets, and, judging from January department store data, an increasing use of consumer credit. These devel January 1951 opments suggest that inflationary pressures during the past several months would no doubt have been greater in the absence of the present regulations pertaining to con sumer credit. Christmas Sales at New Record High More money was spent at Twelfth District department stores in December 1950 than during any previous De cember. Dollar sales were 7 percent above December 1949, the previous high. Of the major cities in the Dis trict, Tacoma, Spokane, and Seattle reported the largest increases. Sales in the other Federal Reserve Districts were also substantially above those of December 1949, and for the country as a whole sales were up about 10 percent over 1949. In this District, Christmas shopping at department stores went into full swing during the week ending December 2 (see the accompanying chart). During each week of the Christmas shopping season, sales surpassed those of the comparable week of 1949. The largest year-period increase for the District, 15 percent, came during the week ending December 23. Durable goods dominate picture The shift from nondurable goods sales to durable goods sales, evident during most of 1950, was further accentu ated in December. Preliminary figures indicate a 20 per cent increase in furniture sales over December 1949, and an increase of over 30 percent in sales of floor cover ings and major household appliances. Sales of television sets were brisk despite credit regulations, increased prices, excise taxes, and the color controversy. Sales of the radio-phonograph-television department increased I N D E X O F T O T A L D E P A R T M E N T S T O R E S A L E S — 89 S T O R E S , T W E L F T H D IS T R IC T (W eekly sales, July 1, 1950=100) Percent January 1951 M O N T H L Y R E V IE W W e e k l y D e p a r t m e n t S tore S a l e s — S elected T w e l f t h D is t r ic t C i t ie s Percent changes in value of sales compared with corresponding period a year ago Los Salt Angeles Lake W eek Twelfth San area Portland City Seattle ending District Francisco — 2 0 Dec. 2, 1950. . + 5 + 4 + 8 + 11 — 1 0 Dec. 9, 1950. . + 2 + 4 + 9 + 4 Dec. 16, 1950.. . + 6 + 7 + 2 + 7 + 7 + 15 + 15 + 29 + 18 Dec. 23, 1950,. . + 1 5 + 15 + 9 +24 + 21 + 35 + 28 + 21 Dec. 30, 1950,. . + 2 7 +33 + 58 + 56 Jan. 6, 1951,, . + 3 8 + 26 + 59 + 54 +31 + 55 Jan. 13, 1951,. . + 4 0 + 34 + 101 + 34 +93 + 34 + 64 Jan. 20, 1951,, . + 4 0 +31 + 35 + 24 +40 Jan. 27, 1951. . + 3 0 + 28 + 46 more than 20 percent. The unseasonably large sales of furniture, floor coverings, and major household appli ances indicate that Christmas shoppers bought with an eye to possible shortages and further price increases. Soft goods sales were also up in December, but only moder ately. December sales of women’s dresses, suits, and coats were up about 4 percent over December 1949, and sales of women’s accessories— millinery, underwear, shoes— were up only 2 percent. Though total department store sales increased, sales in the basement showed a slight decline from December 1949 to December 1950. This indicates that consumers were less interested in the outlay required to make a purchase than in the availability, and perhaps the quality, of the merchandise. This is somewhat remin iscent of the early postwar period when the demand for war-scarce goods was great enough to cause sales in the upstairs departments to increase more than in the com parable, lower priced departments in the basements. Credit buying restrained During the buying panic in July, the dollar volume of instalment sales was over 100 percent higher than during July 1949, and August and September instalment sales were more than 30 percent above those of the comparable months in 1949. These increases were considerably larger than the year-period increases in total sales during the same months. With the reinstitution of credit controls and a return to more normal buying, the dollar volume of instalment sales increased only slightly in October and decreased slightly in November, compared with the com parable months in 1949. In December, the dollar volume of instalment sales showed no change from the December 1949 level. That instalment sales did not increase, al though there was a substantial increase in total sales, may 3 have resulted in part from the effect of the credit con trols and in part from the high level of employment and consumer income. Stocks remain high Even with the high level of Christmas sales, depart ment store stocks at the end of December remained fairly high. Stocks of most departments were above the Decem ber 1949 level, and for the furniture, floor coverings, and major household appliance departments stocks were up 50 percent or more. Stocks of the radio-phonograph-television department were slightly over 100 percent above the December 1949 level. Stocks of nondurable goods and of the basement departments showed moderate increases. Christmas spills over into January The level of department store sales during the weeks following Christmas has been unseasonably high. The post-Christmas decline in dollar sales during the week ending December 30 was not so great as usual. Sales dur ing the week ending January 6 increased sharply and in the week ending January 13 jumped to the high level maintained during November. The weeks ending Janu ary 20 and 27 marked moderate declines from the level established in the week ending January 13. Sales during these weeks, however, were still well above the compa rable weeks of 1950. During the weeks following Christ mas, department stores in the Pacific Northwest made the largest year-period gains reported in the District. In January 1950, however, department store sales in the Pa cific Northwest and some other District areas were de pressed by severe winter weather. Even so, the unfavor able weather of last year was not alone responsible for the year-period sales increases reported for department stores thus far this year. Price increases played some part but more important was the worsening of the Korean situa tion which has given rise to a new wave of scare buying. Contrary to the December experience, instalment sales since Christmas have increased considerably over the same period last year. This increase, prompted by a re newed buying panic, has resulted largely from the unusu ally high sales volume of furniture, radios, television, and major household appliances. These items require a large cash outlay and are, therefore, largely sold on credit. Preliminary figures indicate, however, that the scare buy ing has not reached the proportions of last summer. SOME ALLIES IN THE FIGHT AGAINST INFLATION h e imposition of the price and wage freeze announced on January 26, 1951 will serve to focus public atten tion for some time to come upon these direct controls as a means for restraining inflation. Such a reaction is under standable in view of the fact that Government controls over prices and wages have so many ramifications throughout our economy and directly affect so many peo ple. Our experience in using both direct and indirect con trols to curb inflation during W orld W ar II has impressed T strongly upon us, however, the realization that these de vices by themselves relieve the symptoms of inflation but do not cure it. If consumers have substantially more money to spend than there are goods and services to buy at controlled prices, they accumulate a large volume of savings. The excess of purchasing power out of current income and the potential purchasing power represented by the accu mulated liquid assets place continuous upward pressure 4 FEDERAL RESERVE B A N K OF S A N F R A N C ISC O upon prices and hence greatly complicate the problem of holding them at a given level by direct controls. The growth in liquid assets also provides the basis for infla tionary pressure at some later time when price controls are discontinued. The sharp rise in prices that followed the abandonment of price controls in mid-1946 provides ample testimony to this fact. Our World War II experience has impressed upon us the limitations of a policy for restraining inflation that places primary reliance upon direct price and wage con trols without at the same time making strong use of indirect controls in the form of appropriate fiscal and credit measures. The Administrator of the Economic Sta bilization Agency took recognition of this fact by stating that he hoped that wage and price controls might be nec essary only temporarily until inflation could be effectively controlled by the use of more rigorous tax and credit measures. Credit controls The principles underlying general and selective credit controls and some of their advantages and limitations in restraining inflation have been discussed in a series of brief articles in previous issues of the Monthly Review. These articles developed the point, among others, that the impact of credit controls falls upon only one source of inflationary pressure — spending out of borrowed funds. To restrict such spending is essential in our present fight against inflation. In addition, however, we also need other indirect controls to reduce spending out of current income and to discourage spending out of liquid assets. Tax increases Increased taxes are the most effective means for reduc ing spending out of current income. As in the case of many other types of controls, however, there is always the problem of putting the increase into effect soon enough and in large enough measure to accomplish the desired result. It is now generally recognized that in the interests of economic stability we should have taxed our selves much more heavily during W orld War II. Heavy taxation, particularly in a period of large war expenditures, serves to restrain inflation in several dif ferent ways. An increase in personal income taxes tends to reduce the amount of consumer spending for civilian goods out of current income, thereby reducing inflation ary pressures. An increase in the corporate income tax has a somewhat similar effect upon business spending. In both cases, moreover, individuals and business have less money that might be invested in liquid assets. The accu mulation of such assets on a large scale can pose an infla tionary threat at some later time. Selective excise taxes can be used not only as a revenue measure, but also as a device to increase the cost to the consumer of commodities that use scarce materials. The increased cost tends to reduce the volume purchased and thereby facilitates the transfer of the scarce materials to January 1951 more urgent needs. The added cost to the consumer con stitutes additional revenue for the Government rather than for the producer or seller. Effect of Government borrowing on inflation Increased taxes from whatever source reduce the amount of borrowing that the Government has to do. The less borrowing it does, the greater the possibility of con fining that borrowing to non-bank lenders. If the Gov ernment borrows from individuals or non-bank investors of whatever sort, there is no net increase in the money supply at that time. Funds already in existence are merely transferred to the Government from the former holders. The effect of the transfer is different, however, than in the case of the payment of taxes. Borrowing from non bank investors places in their hands Government securi ties whereas tax payments do not. Under existing cir cumstances, holders of Government securities can read ily convert them into cash and spend the funds thus ob tained. Moreover, the sale of the securities will result in an increase in the money supply if and when they find their way into the banking system. If, however, the Government borrows from commer cial banks, the money supply is increased immediately, and that in turn gives rise to additional inflationary pres sures. When a private customer borrows from a bank, the amount of the loan is typically credited to the customer’s checking account. New bank deposits thus come into being. The borrower may draw upon his additional de posits to make payments to other individuals and busi nesses. In this event, his deposit balance declines, but the recipients of the funds are likely to deposit them in their bank accounts. Deposits in the banking system as a whole rise, therefore, as bank loans expand. The same thing happens when the Government borrows from a bank. When a bank buys some newly-issued Government securities, it typically credits the Government’s deposit account for the amount of the purchase. As the Govern ment spends these funds, they find their way into the deposit balances of individuals and businesses. Moreover, Government borrowing to finance military expenditures is potentially more inflationary than bor rowing by private business for peacetime pursuits. In both cases, the expenditure of the borrowed funds ultimately provides additional income to consumers. In the first case, however, production is confined primarily to military goods, and hence there is no increase in the supply of civilian goods to match the increase in income. In the sec ond case, some increase in the output of civilian goods would normally occur but the increase may take the form either of goods immediately available for consumption or of capital goods which will subsequently enlarge the output of consumer goods. Voluntary restraints with respect to wages and profits Increased taxation acts as a positive curb upon spend ing out of current income by reducing the amount of dis January 1951 M O N T H L Y R E V IE W posable income. The fight against inflation may also be aided by voluntary measures designed to prevent the growth of income. The smaller the earned income, the less can be spent from it. Voluntary restraints in request ing or offering higher wages and acceptance of moderate profit margins by industry are examples of policies which restrict the growth of income and hence tend to reduce inflationary pressures under conditions such as we have at present. While the effectiveness of such voluntary measures is limited owing to competitive pressures for higher wages and higher profits, they can contribute something to the fight against inflation. Moreover, they may continue to play a useful role, even though primary reliance is placed upon direct price and wage controls to restrain the growth of total consumer and business in come. Discourage spending out of liquid assets To attain maximum success in restraining inflation through indirect controls, we need also to discourage con sumer and business spending out of existing liquid assets. This is a field in which we have done less so far than in the field of credit control and taxation. In addition to moral suasion, some discouragement of spending out of liquid assets may be achieved by making the holding of such assets more attractive. A factor of basic importance in any effort to discourage spending out of liquid assets is the full and complete use of all available powers to prevent further price rises. To convince people that the purchasing power of the dollar will be maintained will probably do more than anything else to encourage them to hold liquid assets. 5 W e may also need to explore the possibilities of re quiring investors to hold some portion of their liquid as sets until such time as inflationary pressures are no longer present. Banks might be required, for example, to hold a secondary reserve against deposits in the form of Government securities. This would be of limited effec tiveness, however, if other large institutional investors remained free to determine whether to hold funds in Government securities or to lend them to private bor rowers. If a pay-as-you-go policy for Government expenditures seems to involve taxes so high as to diminish individual and business incentive, a compulsory program of saving might be employed. Individuals, and possibly businesses, might be required to invest some portion of their earned income in the form of Government securities that could not be sold or redeemed until inflationary pressures had diminished to a point where spending out of such assets would not be a cause for economic concern. These are all possibilities that might be considered if inflationary pres sures become increasingly strong. In summary, vigorous use of indirect controls involves what might be termed an interesting paradox. On the one hand, their vigorous use is essential if controls over prices and wages are to attain maximum effectiveness; while on the other, the more vigorously indirect controls are used the less extensive and complex direct controls need to be. The indirect controls, in turn, cannot achieve their maximum effectiveness unless they are all used in con junction to restrict spending out of current income, out of borrowed funds, and out of liquid assets. INDEXES OF PACIFIC COAST WATERBORNE FOREIGN TRADE with this issue, the Monthly Review indexes will include monthly indexes of the tonnage of water borne exports and imports laden and unladen at the Pa cific Coast customs districts of San Diego, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Oregon, and Washington. These customs districts are all within the Twelfth Federal Reserve Dis trict, and account for the majority of foreign trade car ried on within the District. The foreign trade figures re late only to vessel shipments of commercial cargo, and the original volume figures are in terms of gross tonnage— thus including the weight of all containers, wrappings, crates, and devices used to facilitate handling of heavy cargo. t a r t in g S Exports, as used in this index, include, in addition to regular commercial exports, re-exports and all export shipments by commercial vessels for United States for eign aid programs and for the use of United States Gov ernment agencies abroad (except the United States armed forces). Imports are general imports unladen in the Pacific Coast customs districts and include cargoes destined for transshipment to other customs districts. The index excludes inbound and outbound movements of foreign goods in transit to other foreign countries, ship ments on Army or Navy transports and Department of Defense controlled vessels carrying foreign aid and relief shipments, trade between Pacific Coast ports and United States territories and possessions, and shipments for the use of United States armed forces abroad. Prewar data for the index were taken from Report 295 of the United States Maritime Commission, Water borne Foreign and Domestic Commerce of the United States.1 Postwar data for the years 1946 through 1949 are from report FT 972 of the Bureau of the Census, Water borne Trade By United States Port. Current monthly data are taken from unpublished Census Bureau machine tabulation sheets, F T 352 and 752, of cargo laden and unladen at United States ports. Necessary data for the war years 1941 through 1945 are not available. The coverage of the index has been confined to water borne foreign trade and physical volume for several rea sons. Technical considerations regarding the availability and comparability of prewar and postwar value statistics — e.g., differences in coverage by type of transportation or by method of accreditation of exports and imports to 1 This report combines a small volume of military cargoes with the commer cial cargoes. FEDERAL RESERVE B A N K OF SAN FRAN CISCO 6 IN D E X E S O F P A C IF IC C O A S T W A T E R B O R N E T R A D E Physical volume, 1929-49* P e rce n t January 1951 The dominance in Pacific Coast trade of certain low value — high tonnage commodities, such as petroleum, lumber, and cotton will cause changes in the volume of such car goes to exert a more than proportionate effect on the in dex than changes in the volume of high value— low ton nage products. In addition, although tonnage may not change, the total value of trade may rise, even in the ab sence of price increases, because of a shift in the commod ity composition of either exports or imports. In this re gard, a physical volume index is defective because it fails to take into account changes in the commodity composi tion of trade. In general, Pacific Coast foreign trade since 1947 has shown a declining trend in exports and a rising trend in import volume, a movement similar to that evidenced by United States exports and imports as a whole. Starting with July 1950, statistics of export volume for the Pacific Coast customs districts and the United States exclude certain “ special category” shipments (that is, ex ports of strategic value) for national security reasons. No data are currently published regarding total physical vol ume of such commodities exported, either for individual customs districts or for the United States.1 As a result, export volume will be understated by the amount of the “ special category” shipments. customs districts— prevent the use of a value standard. Furthermore, the rapid rise of prices between the prewar and postwar periods makes a comparison on value terms alone of questionable value. Waterborne foreign trade was chosen as the best indicator of foreign trade activity along the Pacific Coast both because the major share of Pacific Coast foreign trade is waterborne1 and because of the availability of reliable statistics relating to waterborne commerce. The use of vessel shipments by port of lading and unlading is also a better measure of port activity than port of final destination or origin, since it includes the sub stantial volume of goods handled by Pacific Coast dis tricts for transshipment to other customs districts. However, care must be exercised in the interpretation of an index based on tonnage alone, unweighted by value. 1This holds true even though San Diego and W ashington carry on a rather extensive trade across the United States borders with M exico and Canada. 1 Total United States export releases include, however, a single value figure for “ special category” exports, but do not show customs district of export or foreign port of destination. PU B LIC A T IO N O F TECHN ICAL S TU D Y A Statistical Study o f R egulation V Loans, by Susan S. Burr and Elizabeth B. Sette, is now ready for distribution at the offices of the Board of Governors. Regulation V was an innovation in war finance that enabled the commercial banking system to act promptly in providing war producers with working capital during World W ar II and thus lessened the need for direct Government financing. The present study, presenting more detailed statistics of Regu lation V loans than could be currently released while the program was in operation, groups the data to show the main characteris tics of the lending program. The purpose is to record for future use an experience gained under emergency pressure. The pam phlet may be purchased for 25 cents or 15 cents in group purchases of 10 or more for single shipment. Orders should be sent to the Division of Administrative Services, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington 25, D. C. January 1951 7 M O N TH LY REVIEW BUSINESS INDEXES— TWELFTH DISTRICT1 (1935-39 average — 100) In d u s t r ia l p ro d u ctio n (p h y sica l v o lu m e )2 Year an d m o n th P e tro le u m 3 Lum ber C ru d e R e fin e d C e m e n t Lead 3 W heat C o p p e r3 flo u r3 W a te rb o rn e T o ta l C a r D e p ’t fo re ign m f ’g Re ta il lo a d in g s store tra d e 3»6»* food sales E le c t r ic e m p lo y ( n u m m e n t4 ber)2 power (va lu e )2 prices3»5 E x p o r t s Im p o r t s 1929________ 1931________ 1932________ 1933________ 1934________ 1935________ 1936________ 1937________ 1938________ 1939________ 1940________ 1941________ 1942________ 1943________ 1944________ 1945________ 1946________ 1947________ 1948________ 1949________ 148 77 46 62 67 83 106 113 88 110 120 142 141 137 136 109 130 147 159 151 129 83 78 76 77 92 94 105 110 99 98 102 110 125 137 144 139 147 149 147 127 90 84 81 81 91 98 105 103 103 103 110 116 135 151 160 148 159 162 167 110 74 48 54 70 68 117 112 92 114 124 164 194 160 128 131 165 193 211 202 171 104 75 75 79 89 100 118 96 97 112 113 118 104 93 81 73 98 107 103 160 75 33 26 36 57 98 135 88 122 144 163 188 192 171 137 109 163 153 140 106 101 89 88 95 94 96 99 96 107 103 103 104 115 119 132 128 133 116 104 83 82 73 73 79 85 96 105 102 112 122 136 167 214 231 219 219 256 284 303 1949 October___________ November _______ December_______ 156 151 156 141 140 140 158 161 156 200 200 196 77 89 105 136 145 140 104 101 189 1950 January____ __ February _________ March__ _________ April_____ ______ M a y ____________ June___________ July ----- ----------August ________ _ September______ October__________ November________ 129 141 160 174 207 181 184 186 176 187 167 140 139 138 138 140 142 142 145 148 153 154 161 157 151 159 162 170 170 178 177 177 179 178 179 201 217 240 244 245 251 248 252 229 123 118 122 125 131 118 86 95 103 104 111 168 164 169 172 181 172 167 177 175 177 195 104 91 91 87 95 105 113 112 105 99 97 ’ ‘ 88 100 112 96 104 118 155 230 306 295 229 181 187 191 183 135 91 70 70 81 88 103 109 96 104 110 128 137 133 141 134 136 142 134 126 112 92 69 66 74 86 99 106 101 109 119 139 171 203 223 247 305 330 353 331 132.0 104.0 89.8 86.8 93.2 99.6 100.3 104.5 99.0 96.9 97.6 107.9 130.9 143.4 142.1 146.3 167.4 200.3 216.1 209.6 124 90 72 72 86 88 86 112 108 107 86 118 76 64 69 74 103 110 114 82 90 96 58 85 57 55 55 78 93 115 306 299 306 182 179 178 124 129 128 337 319 339 205.5 205.7 202.5 58 59 55 105 111 97 322 313 299 325 341 331 341 340 339 352 353 175 179 184 186 193r 194r 198r 204r 207r 209r 208 96 108 125 135 141 148 125 135 140 131 131 316 322 321 333 336 342 454 374 368 342 345 206.4 204.1 203.4 205.4 205.4 206.3 209.6 210.6 209.0 212.4 214.9 44 54 65 57 61 66 59 48p 58V 103 123 106 108 107 150 110 141p 135p 148p BANKING AND CREDIT STATISTICS— TWELFTH DISTRICT (amounts in millions of dollars) C o n d itio n ite m s of all m e m b e r b a n k s 7 Y ear an d m o n th Loans U.S. Dem and d ep osits an d G o v ’t d is c o u n t s s e c u r it ie s a d ju ste d 8 T o ta l tim e d ep osits 1929 1931 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 2,239 1,898 1,486 1,469 1,537 1,682 1,871 1,869 1,967 2,130 2,451 2,170 2,106 2,254 2,663 4,068 5,358 6,032 5,925 7,110 495 547 720 1,064 1,275 1,334 1,270 1,323 1,450 1,482 1,738 3,630 6,235 8,263 10,450 8,426 7,247 6,366 7,016 6,381 1,234 984 951 1,201 1,389 1,791 1,740 1,781 1,983 2,390 2,893 4,356 5,998 6,950 8,203 8,821 8,922 8,655 8,536 9,254 1,790 1,727 1,609 1,875 2,064 2,101 2,187 2,221 2,267 2,360 2,425 2,609 3,226 4,144 5,211 5,797 6,006 6,087 6,255 6,251 1949 November December 5,919 5,925 6,944 7,016 8,511 8,536 6,157 6,255 1950 January February March April May June July August September October November December 5,901 5,893 5,946 5,914 6,005 6,034 6,162 6,418 6,664 6,810 6,963 7,110 7,123 6,999 6,923 6,896 6,932 6,905 6,810 6,699 6,495 6,452 6,319 6,381 8,620 8,311 8,167 8,307 8,354 8,289 8,458 8,627 8,754 8,871 9,018 9,254 6,244 6,262 6,303 6,282 6,275 6,315 6,250 6,210 6,213 6,239 6,194 6,251 Bank rates on short-term b u sin e ss lo a n s 9 M e m b e r b a n k reserves a n d related ite m s 10 Reserve bank cre d it11 _ + C o in an d C o m m e rc ia l T r e a su ry cu rre n cy in o p e ra tio n s12 o p e ra tio n s12 c ir c u la t io n 11 3.20 3.35 34 21 2 — 7 2 + 6 + — 1 — 3 2 + 2 + 4 + 107 + + 214 98 + 76 9 + 302 17 + 13 + 38 + 0 - 154 - 110 - 198 - 163 - 227 90 - 240 - 192 - 148 - 596 -1,980 -3,751 -3,534 -3,743 -1,607 - 443 + 472 - 931 -1,141 23 + + 154 + 150 + 257 + 219 + 454 + 157 + 276 + 245 + 420 +1 ,000 +2 ,826 +4 ,486 +4 ,483 +4 ,682 +1 ,329 + 630 482 + 378 ,198 +1 — 3.16 + 12 40 + + 21 32 + 3.36 — + — + 3.37 — 48 5 2 28 14 10 3 2 62 56 24 48 + - 92 34 223 126 199 23 149 102 45 93 21 80 + — 3.29 + — 3.38 + + _ + + + + + + + + + + + _ Reserves B a n k d e bits index 31 citie s3»13 (1935-39= 100)2 _ _ _ - 6 48 18 4 14 38 3 20 31 96 227 613 708 789 545 326 206 209 65 13 175 147 185 242 287 479 549 565 584 754 930 1,232 1,462 1,706 2,033 2,094 2,202 2,420 1,924 2,075 146 97 63 72 87 102 111 98 102 110 134 165 211 237 260 298 326 355 350 395 2 30 _ - 16 8 1,854 1,924 349 376 5 7 204 106 170 32 169 125 72 150 42 131 _ + 62 10 16 4 8 5 0 18 9 10 3 4 1,892 1,848 1,842 1,821 1,802 1,836 1,858 1,863 1,893 1,930 1,983 2,075 354 360 374r 361r 371 389 382 421r 417 428 425 464 + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + 1 Adjusted for seasonal variation, except where indicated. Except for department store statistics, all indexes are based upon data from outside sources, as follows: lumber, various lumber trade associations; petroleum, cement, copper, and lead, U.S. Bureau of Mines; wheat flour, U.S. Bureau of the Census; electric power, Federal Power Commission; manufacturing employment, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and cooperating state agencies; retail food prices, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; and carloadings, various railroads and railroad associations; foreign trade, U.S. Bureau of the Census. 2 Daily average. 8 Not adjusted for seasonal variation. 4 Excludes fish, fruit, and vegetable canning. 6 Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Seattle indexes combined. 6 Commercial cargo only, in physical volume, for Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego, Oregon, and Washington customs districts; starting with July 1950, “ special category” exports are excluded because of security reasons. 7 Annual figures are as of end of year, monthly figures as of last Wednesday in month or, where applicable, as of call report date. 8 Demand deposits, excluding interbank and U.S. Gov’t deposits, less cash items in process of col lection. Monthly data partly estimated. 9 Average rates on loans made in five major cities during the first 15 days of the month. io End of year and end of month figures. 11 Changes from end of previous month or year. 12 Minus sign indicates flow of funds out of the District in the case of commercial operations, and excess of receipts over disbursements in the case of Treasury^operations. 13 Debits to total deposit accounts, excluding inter bank deposits. *Explanation of series appears in this issue. p—preliminary. r —revised.
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