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MONTHLY REVIEW
OF
B U S IN E S S
C O N D IT IO N S
ISAAC B. NEWTON, Chairman of the Board and Federal Reserve Agent
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Vol. X I
San Francisco, California, December 20,1927
No. 12
S U M M A R Y O F N A T IO N A L C O N D IT IO N S
Prepared by the Federal Reserve Board
Industrial activity and freight carloadings
declined further in November, while retail trade
showed more than the usual seasonal increase.
The general level of wholesale commodity
prices, after advancing for four months, re
mained practically unchanged in October and
November.
Production. Output of manufactures and
minerals was reduced in November; and the
combined index of production, after adjust
ments for customary seasonal variations, fell
below the 1923-1925 average for the first time
since 1924. The principal decline was in the out
put of automobiles, owing largely to prepara
tion for production of new models. Iron and
steel production also declined further and in
November was lower than at any time since
1924. In December, however, inquiries for iron
and steel increased. Textile mill activity was
slightly curtailed in November but continued
at a higher level than in previous years. There
were decreases in the production of coal, build
PER CENT
ing materials, and leather and shoes. Building
contract awards showed seasonal declines in
November and the first two weeks of Decem
ber and were slightly smaller than in the cor
responding period of last year.
The total value of about fifty crops in 1927 is
estimated by the Department of Agriculture at
$8,430,000,000, an increase of $635,000,000 over
1926. The greatest increases in value were
shown for cotton, corn, barley, and oats, while
the largest decrease for any individual crop
was shown for potatoes. The physical quantity
of production of the seventeen principal crops
was about 2 per cent less than last year, but
3 per cent above the average of the last ten
years.
Trade. Retail trade increased slightly more
than is usual in November. Compared with a
year ago, sales of department stores, mail order
houses, and chain stores were in larger volume,
while sales at wholesale continued slightly
below last year’s levels in nearly all reporting
PER CENT
150
À
j
A*
MANUFACTURIES
« r
*
MINEF*ALS
50
1923
1924
1925
1926
' 1927
PRODUCTION OF MANUFACTURES AND MINERALS
Index numbers of production of manufactures and minerals,
adjusted for seasonal variations (1923-1925 average —100).
Latest figures, November, manufactures, 98; minerals, 101.
OL------------ ------------- — s--------- ------------- -------------
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
WHOLESALE PRICES
Index of United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (1926 prices »100,
base adopted by Bureau). Latest figure, November, 96.7.
Requests for early numbers of this Review have been received from universities and libraries whose files
of the publication are incomplete. It would be appreciated if those readers who have available copies of the
Review for months prior to January, 1923, would forward them to the Federal Reserve Agent, Federal Re
serve Bank, San Francisco.
90
D ecem ber, 1927
M O N T H L Y R EVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS
lines. Freight carloadings declined during N o
vember, and in the early part of December
were smaller than in the corresponding period
for the last four years. There were large de
creases in loadings of all classes of commodities.
Prices. The general level of wholesale com
m odity prices, as measured by the index of the
Bureau of Labor Statistics, after a continuous
advance since early in the summer, remained at
practically the same level in Novem ber as in
ber banks in leading cities showed a consider
able increase, reflecting continued growth in
the volume of loans on securities and in the
banks’ investment holdings. In the same period
loans chiefly for commercial purposes, which
reached a seasonal peak in October, showed a
further slight decline.
A t Federal Reserve Banks, the seasonal in
crease in currency requirements and the con
tinued demand for gold for export during thè
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
TOTAL
RESERVE BAÎMK
I CREDIT à
T
J
DISCOUMITS FOR
MEMBER BANKS
i U.S.SECUCITIES
t
J\
MEMBER BANK CREDIT
Monthly averages of weekly figures for banks in 101 leading cities.
Latest figures are averages for first two weekly report
dates in December.
October. Changes were relatively small in all
groups, increases occurring in foods and hides
and leather, and decreases in farm products,
textiles, fuels, and building materials. In the
first tw o weeks of Decem ber prices of wheat,
cattle, hogs, cotton, pig iron, and softwood
lumber declined, while those of silk, woolen
goods, hides, and sole leather advanced.
Bank Credit. From m id-Novem ber to midDecem ber total loans and investments of mem-
1923
t
1924
ACCEPTANCES
1925
1
1926
'•v
1927
RESERVE BANK CREDIT
Monthly averages of daily figures for 12 Federal Reserve Banks.
Latest figures are averages of first 21 days in December.
four weeks ending Decem ber 21st were re
flected in a growth in member bank borrowing.
A t the end of this period the total volume of
reserve bank credit in use was larger than on
any other date in the past six years.
Somewhat firmer conditions in the money
market in December were reflected in increased
rates on call money. Rates on prime com m er
cial paper and bankers’ acceptances remained
unchanged during the month.
T W E L F T H F E D E R A L R E S E R V E D IS T R IC T C O N D IT IO N S
A continuance o f previously noted declines
in industrial activity, seasonal expansion in
trade, and maintenance of sound credit condi
tions, characterized the business situation in
the Tw elfth Federal Reserve District during
November. Crop yield and marketing statistics
which became available during the month fur
nished further evidence that generally satisfac
tory financial returns would be realized from
the year’s operations in agriculture and live
stock raising.
The incidence of demand for credit has
tended to shift from agriculture and industry
to trade during recent weeks. Commercial
loans of reporting member banks are not now
so large in amount as they were a year ago, but
it is probable that indùstry and trade have been
accommodated, to some extent, by the proceeds
of loans on securities, which are in record
volume. Demand deposits at reporting banks
have increased since the mid-summer low point
and growth of time deposits has continued, so
that total deposits of these banks on December
14th were 17 million dollars or 0.9 percent larger
than six months ago and 79 million dollars or 4.6
per cent larger than a year ago. As total loans
of the banks increased but 4 million dollars
over the year period, most of this increase in
deposits is reflected in a substantial rise in in
vestment holdings. M ore extended use of dis
count privileges at the Reserve Bank has ac
companied the N ovem ber-Decem ber expansion
in demand for credit but the amount of Federal
reserve funds in use is still relatively small.
D ecem ber, 1927
91
FEDERAL RESERVE AG EN T AT SAN FRANCISCO
Discount holdings of the Federal Reserve Bank
of San Francisco increased from 29 million dol
lars to 44 million dollars during the four weeks
ended December 14, 1927, and were 16 per cent
larger on that date than one year ago. Interest
rates for commercial paper hardened slightly
during the past month.
Reported data on building, lumbering, min
ing, and flour milling show slight declines in ac
tivity during November, as compared with one
month ago and one year ago. Figures of em ploy
ment tend to confirm this evidence of a m od
erate decrease in industrial production. Distri
bution and trade, on the other hand, have been
well maintained during recent months at levels
equal to or slightly above those of a year ago.
This bank’s index of retail (department store)
sales (1923-1925 daily average=100) stood at
116 in November, 1927, 113 in October, 1927,
and 112 in November, 1926, allowance being
made for seasonal fluctuations. Our season
ally adjusted index of sales at wholesale (19231925 monthly average=100) stood at 104 in
November, 1927 and 1926. The figure for O c
tober, 1927, was 96. The comparison with one
year ago makes no allowance for a decline of
about 2 per cent in the general level of whole
sale prices during the past year.
The generally satisfactory outcom e of the
agricultural year has been marred only by the
marketing difficulties of certain groups of pro
ducers, notably some of the deciduous fruit
growers of the Pacific Coast States and the
potato growers of Idaho. In evaluating the re
sults of the agricultural year, it should be noted
that the farmers of the district will not be ob
ligated to use so large a proportion of the year’s
financial returns in liquidating old debts, as has
been necessary during each of the past several
years.
Agriculture
Final estimates of agricultural production in
the Twelfth Federal Reserve District during
1927 indicate that, in the aggregate, crop yields
were larger than in 1926 and above the average
of recent years (see Table “ A ” ). The unit
value of farm products during major crop m ov
ing periods was, on the whole, higher in 1927
than in 1926, so that an increase in gross farm
income may be anticipated. The price mal
adjustment which has existed for the past sev
eral years between those products which the
farmer sells and those products which he buys
was further reduced during 1927. An index of
the farmer’s relative purchasing power, com
puted by dividing the United States Depart
ment of Agriculture’s index number of farm
products prices at the farm (August, 1909-July,
1914 prices=100) by the Bureau of Labor Sta
tistics’ index of wholesale prices of non-agricultural commodities (1910-1914 prices=100),
stood at 92.4 in October, 1927, which, with the
exception of August, 1925, was the highest
point reached since June, 1920. The figure for
November was 91.6. Although not all of the
important crops of this district are represented
in the index, and although some crops are in
cluded which are not of great importance here,
its major movements may reasonably be used
to confirm (for the district) the general trends
noted above.
Mild winter weather, with normal seasonal
rainfall, has favored growth of fall-sown grains
in the district. In the colder regions of the Pa
cific Northwest, mid-December snows have
greatly reduced the possibility of loss by freez
ing of the young crop. Shipments of wheat
from Columbia River and Puget Sound ports
during the 1927 crop year to December 1st
totaled 34,710,000 bushels. Shipments during
the same period a year ago were 24,946,000
bushels, and the five-year (1923-1927) average
shipments to December 1st have been 14,985,000 bushels.
Shipments of grapes from California largely
ceased, follow ing the rains of early November.
For the season to December 3rd, 73,722 car
loads of grapes had been shipped as compared
with 63,581 cars shipped during the correspond
ing period of 1926. Present estimates indicate
that production of raisins in California will
total 285,000 tons this year. There were 272,000
tons produced in 1926.
(A ) P rod u ction and Value o f Farm C rops—
Unit
W h e a t ( a l l ) ............ bu .
B a r l e y ......................bu .
R i c e ...........................bn .
B ea n s ....................... bu.
C o t t o n ......................bales
H a y ( t a m e ) ............ ton s
P o t a t o e s ( w h i t e ) ..b u .
S u g a r B e e t s ............ to n s
A p p l e s f l ....................b o x e s
P e a c h e s ....................bu.
P e a r s ........................ bu.
O r a n g e s ...................b o x e s
L e m o n s + ................. b o x e s
*000 om itte d .
t-------------------------------------------P roduction*------------------------------------------- \
»-------------------------------- Valu e*---------------------------------- s
t---------- Twelfth District---------- f---------------------United States-------------- n t------- Twelfth District---------^ t------- United States--------\
5 Year
5-Year
1927
1926
Average i
1927
1926
Average i
1927
1926
1927
1926
133,754
103,368
102,989
871,691
832,305
807,731
$143,490
$119,498
$974,694
$997,589
41,427
42,933
40,609
265,577
191,182
192,707
35,531
25,709
180,127
109,677
8 ,9 6 0 f
7 ,9 8 6 f
6 ,0 8 4 f
40,231
41,006
36,387
10,3 0 4 t
1 0,462t
37,728
44,988
6,531$
6,459$
5,593$
16,872
17,139
16,140
17,293$
18,959$
48,732
50,232
187§
243§
174§
12,789
18,618
13,649
...
16,608§
1,254,000
1,016,346
15,312
14,454
14,329
106,216
86,377
90,969
172,869
161,342
1,206,650
1,216,678
56,076
41,726
36,661
402,149
357,800
394,182
36,948
44,768
387,870
506,721
1,510||
913||
1,642||
7,737
7,537
6,942
7,049|[
...
54,964
59,706
35,715
40,182
37,914
77,700
117,285
111,130
43,943
27,989
103,530
85,618
2 0 ,5 0 0 f
21,252+
16,866+
45,463
68,425
54,014
10,675+
19,977+
50,494
67,079
1 0 ,8 1 1 #
1 4 ,3 2 0 #
1 0 ,6 7 8 #
18,072
25,644
20,756
1 4 ,3 2 3 #
1 1 ,9 2 1 #
23,902
22,742
22,540+
29,100+
23,477+ 32,540°
33,900°
33,897°
67,620+
87,300+
100,620°
9 2 ,790°
6,400
7,200
5,908
...
...
...
17,600
14,400
...
...
+ C a liforn ia .
{C a lifo r n ia an d I d a h o .
§ A r iz o n a an d C a lifo rn ia .
||C a lifo rn ia , I d a h o , an d U ta h .
#California, Oregon, and Washington. ° California and Florida. 1 1922-1926.
Source : United States Department of Agriculture.
If C o m m e r c ia l c r o p .
92
M O N T H L Y REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS
Smaller shipments of apples from principal
producing sections of the district reflect an 18
per cent decrease in production during 1927 as
compared with 1926.
APPLES — Carload Shipments
t------ June 1st to November 27th-------■
>
1927
1926
4,473
3,077
5,138
436
23,931
Five-Year
(1923-1927)
Average
3,872
4,300
4,044
613
21,377
.................
.................
.................
.................
6,250
2,235
393
18,052
T w e lft h D i s t r i c t ............ .................
29,848
37,055
34,206
U n ite d S t a t e s ................. .................
63,658
96,230
85,621
I d a h o ..................................
O r e g o n ................................
U ta h ....................................
W a s h in g t o n .....................
Source :
U n it e d S ta tes D e p a r tm e n t o f A g r ic u ltu r e .
Unit returns to the apple growers are re
ported as somewhat greater than a year ago.
Average seasonal prices, f.o.b. Pacific North
west, for Extra Fancy W inesap apples during
the past five years fo llo w :
APPLE P R IC E S-E X TR A FANCY W IN E S A P F. O. B. Pacific Northwest
(In dollars per box)
Year
August
September
1927
1926
1925
1924
1923
2.13
1.35
1.88
1.88
1.65
2.13
1.41
1.81
2.11
1.60
S ou rce:
October
2.20
1.33
2.07
2.21
2.03
November
2.33
1.33
2.14
2.30
1.45
U n ite d S ta tes D e p a r tm e n t o f A g r ic u ltu r e .
The 1926-1927 California citrus fruit season
may be characterized as one of increased yields,
heavy shipments, and profitable returns to the
grower. The condition of the 1927-1928 crop
of oranges and lemons is reported to be below
that of last year’s crop at this time. Shipments
of oranges and lemons from California during
November, 1927, totaled 1,277 and 448 carloads,
respectively, as compared with 3,085 and 617
carloads shipped during November, 1926. The
late maturity of the 1927-1928 Navel orange
crop has delayed shipments of this fruit.
The United States Department of A gricul
ture’s cotton production reports for December
1st show a slight increase over the November
1st estimate for Arizona and California, the
latest figure being 187,000 bales. On November
1st a preliminary estimate of 181,000 bales was
made. A year ago production was 243,000 bales.
Further improvement of ranges and pastures
in the district was reported during November.
Livestock on winter ranges, benefited by ample
forage and supplementary feed supplies, are in
excellent condition. The market for range ani
mals continued active.
Continued improvement in the economic con
dition of livestock raisers has been a noteworthy
feature of the general agricultural situation in
this district during 1927. Attractive market
prices, particularly for cattle, have induced
livestock men to finish and market a larger than
usual proportion of their herds and flocks, and
fewer unfinished animals will be sent to feedlots
for fattening this winter than were finished for
D ecem b er, 1<
market in this manner a year ago. The report
smaller volume of so-called “ feeder” operatio
for the 1927-1928 season may also be account
for partly by the continued tendency of the In
stock industry to build up its breeding herds
tendency particularly noticeable among shee
raisers.
Some contracting of the 1928 wool clip h
been reported in the Intermountain states
prices ranging from two to three cents £
pound above those of a year ago.
Industry
The decline in industrial activity, which h
been in progress since midsummer, continu
during November. The downward moveme
now approximates in extent the upward mo\
ment of the first half of the year and duri
recent months production has been at about t
levels of a year ago.
Statistical and non-statistical reports of v
ume of employment show declines during N
vember, as compared with October, 1927, a
November, 1926. Such decreases, as compar
with a year ago, have been noted during ea
of the past seven months.
Building and construction activity duri
1927 failed, by a small margin, to reach t
records of the previous four years, and appro:
mated the record of 1922. Value of perm
granted in 20 of the district’s principal citi
during 1927 to December 1st was 6.0 per ce
smaller than value of permits granted in t
first eleven months of 1926. N ovember buildi:
permits figures have been distorted by the
suance of permits valued at approximately
million dollars, covering construction of pub
buildings in Los Angeles upon which w o
commenced several months ago. A llow ing f
this unusual factor in the total figure for IN!
vember, 1927, value of permits granted in
cities of the district, as reported by S. W . Stra
( B) E m ploym ent—
t
Industries
-California-------- N r
— OregonNo. of
No. of
No. r - Employees —>
No.
/— Employees of
Nov.,
Nov.,
of
Nov.,
N o i
Firms 1927
1926 Firms
1927
192<
790 139.827 150,008 169
30.765
29,2;
(-6 .8 )
(5.1)
S to n e , C lay and
7,422
G lass P r o d u c t s .
49
7,805
5
125
18
(— 4 .9 )
( — 3 3 .2 )
L u m b e r and W o o d
M a n u fa c tu r e s . . 130 28,064 27,991
65
19,318
17,41
(0 .3 )
(1 0 .9 )
2,670
18
2,795
12
2,025
2,23
( — 4 .5 )
( — 9 .2 )
C lo th in g , M illin e ry
an d L a u n d e r in g .
66
7,959
8,014
9*
46
461
( — 0 .7 )
(0 .0 )
F o o d s , B e v e ra g e s
28,815
and T o b a c c o . . . 167 27,687
46
3.442
3,04
( — 3.9 )
(1 3 .0 )
W a t e r , L ig h t and
8,391
P o w e r .................
8,596
5
( — 2 .4 )
O th e r I n d u s t r ie s f . 340 55,346
63,284
( — 12.5)
2,288
2,708
32
5,394
5,92
M is c e lla n e o u s . . . .
15
( — 15.5)
( — 9 .0 )
* L a u n d e r in g o n ly , f I n c lu d e s th e f o llo w in g in d u s t r ie s : met
m a c h in e r y an d c o n v e y a n c e s ; le a th e r a n d r u b b e r g o c
ch e m ica ls , oils and p a in ts, p r in t in g and p a p e r g o o d s .
F ig u r e s in p a re n th e se s in d ica te p e r c e n t a g e ch a n g e s fr o m N o v
b e r , 1926.
D e ce m b e r, 1927
and Company, was slightly larger than the
value for November of last year and approxi
mated the figure for October, 1927.
Building materials prices at wholesale de
clined during November to the lowest levels in
recent years. The United States Bureau of
Labor Statistics’ index of building materials
prices stood at 90.2 (1926 prices=100) for N o
vember, 1927, as compared with 91.6 for O c
tober, 1927, and 100.1 for November, 1926. The
Aberthaw index of industrial building construc
tion costs, including both labor and materials,
which stood at 191 (1914 costs= 100) on D e
cember 1st, has remained unchanged since the
first of October. A year ago, the figure was 197.
The Pacific Coast lumber industry was sea
sonally less active during November, 1927, than
during October, 1927. Figures of production,
indicated consumption (shipments), and orders
received, reported by four associations, were all
larger in November than one year ago, due in
part to an increase in the number of mills re
porting data this year. Production continued to
outrun consumption, the excess in November,
1927, being more than twice as large as in O c
tober (15 per cent as against 7 per cent). Cur
rent lumber trade information indicates that
lumber manufacturers, particularly in the Pa
cific Northwest, are loath to expand sales at
present prices.
LUMBER*—Twelfth District
Nov., 1927 Oct.,1927 Nov.,1926
(board feet) (board feet) (board feet)
Production .........................................
Shipments ...........................................
Orders ...................................................
Unfilled O rdersf .............................
N o. of Mills R ep o rtin g i...............
760,929
663,871
646,725
431,881
192193
831,839 678,939
777,485 634,949
732,545 580,325
452,670 444,868
179
*A s reported by four associations, 000 omitted except in case of
number of mills reporting. fReported by three associations.
The figures are not strictly comparable with other figures.
{Average.
Daily average output of petroleum from Cali
fornia wells during November was about 10
thousand barrels less than in October, 1927.
Production of crude oil in that state has tended
downward since December, 1926. Consumption
(C) Building Perm its—
November. 1927
Value
No.
Berkeley ....................
Boise ...........................
F resno ......................
L o n g Beach ..........
L os Angeles ..........
Oakland ...................
O gden ........................
Pasadena .................
Phoenix ...................
Portland
.................
Reno ..........................
Sacramento ............
Salt Lake City . .
San D iego ............
San Francisco
San Jose .................
Seattle ......................
Spokane ..................
Stockton ..................
Tacom a
...................
District
93
FEDERAL RESERVE AG EN T A T SAN FRANCISCO
..................
November, 1926
No.
Value
177
165
98
424
3,084
492
28
242
114
760
28
205
84
585
592
91
675
177
75
144
$
440,437
41,865
284,817
584,050
17,464,327*
1,908,713
175,500
1,036,539
199,373
1,261,645
94,850
284,855
267,808
7 63,840
6,382,171
218,255
3,193,430
248,006
132,310
273,590
212
57
110
338
2,943
791
20
234
100
908
21
182
91
745
765
97
800
160
79
179
$
552,585
62,353
93,768
513,905
8,688,255
1,809,968
44,650
579,213
194,155
2,099,925
37,850
369,378
3 89,880
2,001,466
3,293,891
500,490
2,280,840
219,415
235,711
321,980
8,240
$35,256,381*
8,832
$24,289,678
*Includes permits for public buildings of an indicated value of
$9,750,000 already under construction for several months, but
for which issuance of permits was delayed until Novem ber.
of petroleum continued in larger volume than
production, and combined holdings of heavy
and refinable crude oil were smaller at the end
of the month than at its beginning. A slight
increase in gasoline stocks at California refiner
ies was reported during November, 1927. Re
finers’ stocks of gasoline on November 30, 1927,
were 14.2 per cent larger in volume than one
y e a r ago.
PETROLEUM-California
Indicated
Average
Stored
Average
Daily
Stocks at
Daily
Consumption End of
Production (Shipments) Month
(barrels)
(barrels)
(barrels)
Nov., 1927.
O ct., 1927.,
N ov., 1 9 2 6 ....
617,216
627,384
----------639,104
625,744
659,000
641,805
115,179,167
115,435,022
118,830,709
■New Wells ->
Daily
Produe*
tion
(barrels)
27,980
55
Number
Opened
61
91
26,101
62,588
Source : Am erican Petroleum Institute.
Figures of national non-ferrous metals pro
duction, together with a guide to the propor
tionate importance of this district in such pro
duction, are presented in the follow ing table :
NON-FERROUS METALS
National Production
Nov.,
Oct.,
1927
1927
Copper (short tons) (mine
Per Cent
of Total
Produced in
Nov., 12th Dist*
1926
in 1926
production) .....................
67,813
68,828
75,240
Lead (short tons) (crude) f
52,722
56,740
57,558
Zinc (short tons) ( s la b ).
55,062
49,217
50,185
Silver (o z.) (commercial
bars) .................................. 5,077,000 4,930,000 4,920,000
64.1
43.5
13.3
69.7
*Including all of Arizona, the five southeastern counties of which
are in the Eleventh Federal Reserve District,
fIncludes
figures for M exico.
Flour production in this district declined
during November from the seasonal peak levels
of October. Data reported by 13 large milling
companies, operating 19 mills, for which com
parable figures are available since 1920, showed
a 1.4 per cent reduction in output from Novem
ber, 1926 levels ; and a 14.2 per cent reduction
from the five-year (1922-1926) average output
for that month. Flour stocks in millers’ hands
on December 1st were below the average re
ported at the close of November in recent years.
FLOUR MILLING
Twelfth District
Output (b b ls .)..
Stocks*
Flour (b b ls .).
W hea t ( b u .) . .
Nov., 1927
Oct., 1927
Nov., 1926
Five-Year
Average
Nov.,
1922-1926
475,168
554,407
481,818
553,759
368,580
3,673,847
410,905
3,188,882
424,312
3,075,616
474,646
4,028,382
* A t end of month.
Distribution and Trade
Available evidence indicates that activity in
distribution and trade was maintained at rela
tively higher levels during the last half of 1927
than was industrial production. Despite a de
cline in output, goods have been passing into
consumers’ hands at approximately the same
rate as a year ago.
If allowance be made for usual seasonal fluc
tuations, value of sales, both at retail and at
wholesale, increased during November as com
pared with October and was greater than in N o
vember, 1926. Freight carloadings were smaller
in number during November, 1927, than one
94
D ecem ber, 1
M O N T H L Y R EVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS
month ago or one year ago. District carloadings data are not yet available for a sufficiently
long period of time, however, to permit of accu
rate conclusions being drawn from their monthto-month movements. Their comparability over
longer periods is also affected by the increasing
IN D E X
NUMBER
130
120
110
100
?
90
80
D EPARTM EN T
ST O R E
SALES
in October, 1927, and 112 in November, V
(1923-1925 daily average=100). Novem
sales of all reporting retail stores in the disti
(including department, apparel, dry goods, ;
furniture stores) approximated those of <
tober, 1927, and were 3.1 per cent larger tl
in November, 1926.
Value of sales at wholesale declined less tl
seasonally during November, and apprc
mated the figures of a year ago. This ban
seasonally adjusted index of wholesale tr;
(based on reported value of sales in eieven li:
of business) advanced from 96 in October, IS
to 104 in November, 1927, the figure for
later month being the same as that for N ov(
ber, 1926. Index numbers of separate lines
wholesale trade appear b e lo w :
70
SA LE S
AT
WHOLESALE TRADE—Twelfth District
W HOLESALE
-W "
6 0 v\A
1924
1923
1925
Firms
TRADE A C T IV IT Y-T W E L F TH DISTRICT
Seasonally adjusted index numbers of sales of 28 department stores
and about 170 wholesale firms, (1923-1925 average = 100). Latest
figures, November, department stores, 116; wholesale firms, 104.
efficiency of railroad operations, reflected in
more rapid movement of freight, heavier load
ing of cars, and the use of larger freight cars.
Retail sales of 42 department stores increased
3.8 per cent during November, 1927, as com
pared with November, 1926, while a similar
-N E T SALES*STOCKS*
January 1 to
Nov., 1927,
Nov.3 0. 1927, Nov.,1927.
compared
compared with compared
-with— -—
» same period
with
Oct.. 1927
in 1926
Nov., 1926
Nov., 1926
Departm ent Stores 3.8
D ry G o o d s ............ 16.2
1.2
Furniture ...............
M en ’ s Apparel . . - - 7 . 1
M en’ s and W o m e n ’ s
Apparel ............... 12.1
W o m e n ’ s Apparel.- - 1 . 5
All Reporting
3.1
Stores .................
( 42)
(
5)
( 45)
(
4)
1.4 ( 4 2 )
2.8
7.3...............
(
5 ) 11.4
- 6.6 ( 4 5 )
3.8
-27.7 (
4)
( 3 4 ) — 0.5
( 4)
3.5
(2 6 )
1.8
(3 7 )
( 3)
(2 2 )
( 11) —
( 11) —
0.6
2.5
(
(
11)
11)
1.8
1.3
( 1 1 ) — 0.2
( 1 1 ) — 2.6
( 3)
(1 0 )
(1 1 7 ) —
0.1
(1 1 7 )
2.9
(8 7 )
(7 7 )
^Percentage increase or decrease (— ) .
indicate number of stores reporting.
0.0
Figures in parentheses
comparison of value of stocks on hand shows a
decline of 0.5 per cent over the year period. This
bank’s index of value of sales of 28 department
stores, which is adjusted for normal seasonal
changes and for variation in the number of trad
ing days, stood at 116 in November, 1927, 113
DEPARTMENT STORE SALES—Index Numbers
(D)
( 1923-1925 daily avera?e= 100)
Los
Angeles
<5)t
Oak
land
San
Fran
cisco
Salt
Lake
City
Seattle
Spo
kane
(4) f
(5)f
(5)t
(5)f
(3)t
128
118
109
120
106
118
103
111
115
111
117
111
103
126
112
107
124
117
116
119
111
117
105
107
97
105
102
102
107
105
110
104
94
99
103
98
116
113
120
112
nal Adjustment
.
.
.
.
O ct.,
131
113
124
125
122
134
108
115
Dis
trict
(28) t
Adjustment
N ov.,
.
.
.
.
127
115
139
121
120
113
115
113
parentheses indicate number of stores.
One store
included in district figures not included in cities shown above.
Index Numbers of Sale
- 1927
Oct.
Sept.
N o. of
1927
1926
Agricultural Im plem ents . . . .
Autom obile Supplies ............ .
Autom obile Tires .................... .
15
13
13
4
19
8
13
18
19
6
20
148
148
D ry Goods .................................. .
Electrical Supplies .................
.
.
.
Paper and Stationery..............
.
A ll Lines, A d ju s t e d !............... .
* 1 9 2 3 -1 9 2 5
monthly averages= 1 0 0 .
N ov.
91
102
141
112
87
137
107
105
90
126
99
101
104
116
103
134
129
96
131
117
90
97
129
104
104
96
127
100
148
118
119
122
112
95
101
150
122
110
95
fF o r seasonal variati«
Prices
The United States Bureau of Labor Sta
tics’ wholesale price index of 550 commodil
stood at 96.7 (1926 monthly average price
100) for November, practically the same fig
as that recorded for October (97.0).
Prices for cattle, hogs, lambs, and sheep p
sued individual and non-uniform trends dur
November. Cattle prices at Chicago, on
whole, were higher during November than d
ing October although in the week ending 1
vember 26th average prices dropped rat
sharply from the high levels of the preced
(E) Bank D ebits* N ov., 1927
.$
2 3,2 37
16,238
5 5,1 66
L ong Beach . .
4 3,5 95
9 59 ,82 7
L os Angeles . . .
.
2 23 ,3 6 8
25,281
37,321
Pasadena ..........
3 2,2 58
.
1 89,656
9,203
Sacramento . . .
48 ,3 4 6
7 5,477
Salt Lake City
6 2,4 60
San D iego
San Francisco . 1,324,391
2 7,1 74
San Jose ..........
2 2 3 ,03 6
5 8,1 16
2 7 ,0 7 6
4 2,9 49
17,479
District
......... .$ 3 ,5 2 1 ,6 5 4
* 0 0 0 omitted.
-First Eleven M on!
1927
1<
N ov., 1926
$
19,510
13,422
50,850
4 1,8 16
831 ,02 7
142,335
2 0,7 69
3 4,7 67
2 8,126
190,052
8,733
30,081
6 8,5 57
6 0,699
935 ,60 5
3 0,3 47
2 00 ,08 5
52,099
2 7,733
4 2,1 10
15,043
$ 2 ,8 4 3 ,7 6 6
$
2 37 ,93 7
152,763
4 49,581
5 26 ,76 0
1 0,1 62 ,7 3 4
2 ,4 2 2,44 1
2 0 3 ,73 8
4 3 8 ,71 7
2 99 ,3 0 8
1,8 7 4,76 4
1 03,412
4 26 ,7 6 2
766 ,06 3
674 ,91 4
13,5 53 ,1 0 9
289 ,97 3
2 ,3 7 4,36 7
6 1 0 ,78 9
3 0 8 ,2 5 6
4 9 2 ,9 8 6
143 ,83 8
$ 3 6 ,5 1 3 ,2 1 2
$
21:
14 ;
43 :
54(
9,52;
1,83 j
22;
40;
28(
2,00<
10(
35¿
77Í
70:
11,491
292,33i
6 i:
29.
501
141
$33,22;
D ecem ber, 1927
week. Follow ing an abrupt decline late in O c
tober, quotations for hogs moved downward
throughout November, and averaged 15 per
cent lower for that month than for October.
The price of lambs was steady throughout the
month and practically unchanged from October
quotations. Sheep prices advanced early in N o
vember and held the advance during the last
two weeks of the month.
LIVESTOCK PRICES AT CHICAGO
Percentage changes*
from
(-----Cents per pound----- \
Nov.,
Oct.,
Nov., One Month OneYear
1927
1927
1926
Ago
Ago
Cattle .............................
H o g s ..............................
Lam bs ..........................
Sheep .............................
14.00
9.03
13.78
5.90
13.45
10.66
13.81
5.71
9.83
11.91
12.94
5.96
4.1
— 15.3
— 0.2
3.3
42.4
— 24.2
6.5
— 1.0
* ( — ) decrease.
Improvement in wheat prices was noted dur
ing the latter part of November and the first
few days of December. During the week end
ing December 10th, however, prices turned
downward and continued to decline during the
follow ing week. Prices of Decem ber contract
wheat at Chicago ranged from $1.27 to $1.28 per
bushel on December 20th. Quotations for this
contract ranged from $1.26^2 to $1.27^ on N o
vember 19, 1927, and from $1.38^ to $1.39
per bushel on December 20, 1926.
The general level of cotton prices has de
clined during the past thirty days. On Decem
ber 20th spot middling uplands cotton at
New Orleans sold for 19.33 cents per pound as
compared with 19.58 cents on Novem ber 19,
1927. In December, 1926, spot middling up
lands cotton at New Orleans was selling at
about 12 cents per pound.
W o o l prices have shown a slight upward
trend during the past seven months. The
weekly average of 98 quotations at Boston ad
vanced from 63.34 cents per pound on May 27th
to 68.27 cents per pound for the week ending
Decem ber 16th. Average prices for certain
weeks this year and for the corresponding
weeks of last year are shown in the follow ing
table:
Week
Ending
1 9 2 7 .. .
1 9 2 6 ...
95
FEDERAL RESERVE AG EN T A T SAN FRANCISCO
Prices, f.o.b. California shipping points, for
dried apples, apricots, peaches, and pears, have
advanced moderately during recent weeks. Cer
tain types of raisins, as well as some sizes of
prunes are now quoted higher than they were
last month. W alnut and almond markets con
tinue strong with prices unchanged.
W ith the exception of zinc, average prices
for non-ferrous metals were higher during N o
vember than during October. Lead and zinc
prices were lower than in November, 1926,
while copper and silver prices have advanced
over the year period.
The softw ood lumber index of ‘"The Lumber
Manufacturer and Dealer” declined during N o
vember and stood at 26.99 for the fortnight
ending December 3rd. A month earlier the
index was 31.70, and a year ago it stood at 29.80.
Banking and Credit
Demand for commercial credit at reporting
member banks decreased during early Novem
ber, with the passing of the peak of the district’s
agricultural marketing season. Some contrac
tion in demand for credit also accompanied de
clines in industrial activity during the month.
During the latter part of November and the first
weeks of December, however, the volume of
commercial loans increased as activity in seaMIL LIONS OF DOLLARS
WOOL PRICES—-Averages of 98 Quotations at Boston
(Cents per pound)
Oct.28 Nov.4 Nov.11 Nov.18 Nov.25 Dec.2 Dec.9 Dec.16
67.53
67.71
67.78
67.59
67.78
67.51
67.78
67.40
68.12
67.40
68.29
67.15
68.29
65.16
MEMBER BANK CREDIT—TWELFTH DISTRICT
Figures for about 65 member banks in leading cities, as of last
Wednesday of each month. Latest figures, December 14th.
68.27
65.26
Source: Dun’s Review.
(F) Com m odity Prices —
Commodity
Unit
W holesale Prices (U . S. Bureau of Labor Statistics— 1926 p r ic e s = 1 0 0 ).
Purchasing Power of Farm Products (U . S. Dept, of A g ric u ltu re)*..........
W o o l ................................... Average of 98 quotations at B o s to n ...............................
W h e a t............................... Chicago contract price for M ay w heat............................
A p p le s ............................... W inesaps, Extra Fancy, f. o. b. Pacific N orthw est.
O ranges............................. Navels, Fancy, wholesale at San Francisco...............
P runes............................... Size 4 0 /5 0 in 25-lb. boxes, f. o. b. California.............
R aisin s............................... Seedless, bulk, in 25-lb. boxes, f. o. b. California. .
lb.
bu.
box
box
lb.
lb.
doz.
lb.
lb.
lb.
oz.
B u tter............................... 92 score at San Francisco.........................................
C opper............................... Electrolytic, monthly average at N ew Y o rk .
L e a d .................................... M onthly average at N ew Y o r k .............................
Silver..................................M onthly average at N ew Y o r k ..............................
Lum ber (Softw ood) . . W eek ly Index, United S ta te s f .............................
*Ratio of farm prices (August, 1909-July, 1914 prices=100) to wholesa]
100). fA s published by “ The Lumber Manufacturer and Dealer.”
ì
Dec. 2,1927
68.290
$1.34J4-1.35
2 .4 0 -2 .5 0
6.5 0 -7 .0 0
.0 6 -.0 6 y2
.06
1.75-1.8 5
.49
13.3190
6.2590
57.4740
26.99
One Month Ago
97.0
91.8
67.780
$ 1 .3 0 ^ -1 .3 1 5 4
2.25
N ot quoted
.0 6 -0 6 ^
.0534
1.75-1.85
.49
12.9580
6.2500
56.0350
31.70
One Year Ago
98.4
80.7
67.150
$1.39 54—1.41 Y\
1.30-1.35
4 .25-5.7 5
.06U --07V 4
.0 7 1 /2
2.0 0 -2 .1 0
.46
13.5760
8.0050
54.1410
29.80
prices of non-agricultural commodities (1910 -1914 p r ic e s =
96
D ecem ber,
M O N T H L Y R EVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS
sonal holiday trade developed. Commercial
loans are not now so large in amount as they
were a year ago, but it is probable that industry
and trade have been accommodated to some
extent by the proceeds of loans on securities,
which are in record volume. Investments of
reporting member banks have grown steadily
in amount during recent months.
Seasonal expansion of demand deposits and
continued growth of time deposits, since the
mid-summer low points, have added to the
funds available to reporting member banks for
loan and investment purposes. A considerable
proportion of these funds has gone into the
investment account of the banks, and so, with
the recent expansion in demand for commercial
credit, there has been an increased use of dis
count privileges at the Federal Reserve Bank.
A t the same time a slight hardening of money
rates for prime commercial paper has been
noted.
REPORTING MEMBER BANKS*— Twelfth District
(In millions of dollars, percentage changes in parentheses)
Condition ,— — Changes from -------- Dec. 14, One Month
One Year
1927
Ago
Ago
( + = increase. — = decrease.)
T otal
r ms ................................ 1,303
Comm cial Loans .................
951
Lo
on Securities ...............
352
Inv
rnents ................................
586
Totai Loans and Investm ents 1,889
N et Dem and D e p o s i t s ..........
849
Tim e D eposits ...........................
942
Borrowings from Federal
Reserve B a n k .........................
39
+32
+21
+11
+13
+45
+33
+27
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
2.5)
2.3)
3.2)
2.2)
2.4)
4.1)
3.0)
+15
(60.1)
+
4 ( 0.3)
— 21 ( 2.2)
+ 25 ( 7.7)
+ 1 1 1 (23.2)
+ 1 1 5 ( 6.4)
+ 31 ( 3.8)
+ 64 ( 7.3)
—
6 (18.4)
*T otal resources of reporting banks are approximately 50 per
cent of total resources of all banks and 70 per cent of total
resources of all m em ber banks in the Tw elfth Federal R e
serve D istrict. R eporting banks embrace member banks in
San Francisco, L os A ngeles, Oakland, Portland, Seattle,
Tacom a, Spokane, Salt Lake City, and Ogden.
As a result of increased borrowing by city
member banks during the four weeks ending
December 14th, discounts of the Federal Re
serve Bank of San Francisco, advanced 15 mil
lion dollars or 51.2 per cent from the low point
of mid-Novem ber (29 million dollars). During
the same period the Reserve Bank’s portfolio
of purchased acceptances was increased by one
million dollars and holdings of United States
government securities declined nine million dol
lars. The net result of these movements was
an increase of seven million dollars (7.6 per
cent) in total bills and securities (total earning
assets) held.
On Decem ber 14, 1927, the total of bills dis
counted by the Federal Reserve Bank of San
Francisco for city member banks was six mil
lion dollars (16.4 per cent) larger than on D e
cember 15, 1926, an increase of 26 million dol
lars in bills discounted, secured by United
States government obligations, more than off
setting a decline of 20 million dollars in redis
counted paper. Borrowings of country member
banks have changed little as compared with
one year ago. The Federal Reserve Bank of San
Francisco’s holdings of United States g
ernment securities have increased 9 million <
lars or 23.7 per cent over the year period,
increase representing this bank’s participat
in the operations of the Federal Reserve £
tern’s Open Market Investment Commit
Acceptances purchased in the open m arket,;
held for the account of this bank, during
month ended December 14, 1927, were sma
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
300
(
......................... 1
TOIrAL RESERV ES
200
FEDERAL REISERVE
NOTE CIRCU -ATION
BILLS
100 -DISCOUNTI“ D
^
1923
s
a
_
/
k INVtb 1 MtN 1 ò
/
✓
1924
1925
1926
1927
RESERVE BANK CREDIT—TWELFTH DISTRICT
Figures for Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, as of last Wei
day of each month. Latest figures, December 14th.
in amount than at any time since the sumi
months of 1924. A considerable volume of
ceptances has been purchased in the San Fr
cisco market for the account of other Fed(
reserve banks during recent weeks, howe^
so that the decline in the San Francisco Rese
Bank’s holdings does not represent a coi
sponding decline in Pacific Coast accepta
offerings. Total investment holdings of
bank w^ere 16 million dollars or 23.2 per c
smaller and total earning assets were 10 r
lion dollars or 9.0 per cent smaller on Decem
14, 1927, than one year ago.
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO
(In millions of dollars, percentage changes in parentheses)
Condition t--------Changes from—
Dec. 14,
One Month
One Y
Ag<
1927
Ago
(+ = increase. — = deer
Total Bills and Securities. .
Bills Discounted ...................
United States Securities . . .
Bills Bought .............................
Total Reserves ........................
Total Deposits ...........................
Federal Reserve N otes in
Circulation ................................
—10 (
282
191
+ 7 ( 7.6)
+ 15 (51.2)
— 9 (16.9)
+ 1 (25.1)
— 11 ( 3.8)
— 3 ( 1.4)
172
+
— 17 (
97
45
46
6
1 ( 0.5)
+ 6 C
+ 9 0
— 25 0
+ 8(
+ 14 (
Holiday increases in Federal reserve note
culation, accompanied by an 11 million dollar
crease in total reserves, offset a moderate wi
drawal of member banks’ deposits during
past month and the primary reserve ratio*f
the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
clined from 80.4 on November 16th to 77.7
December 14th. This decline was similar to t
experienced during the same period in IS
a year of relatively low vitality in business.
fT o ta l reserves to deposits and Federal reserve notes in a<
circulation.
Those desiring this review sent them regularly will receive it without charge upon application.
@FedFRASER