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MONTHLY REVIEW TWELFTH F E D E R A L D ecem ber R E S E R V E DI S T RI CT Fe d e r a l 1 9 5 2 reserve Ba n k of S a n Fr a n c i s c o ANOTHER YEAR OF EXPANSION curtain has fallen upon another year of economic T expansion in the Twelfth District. More industrial output than ever before and a record volume of consumer spending are two indications of the economic growth which occurred in 1952. Construction, although slightly below the 1950 peak, was well ahead of the 1951 volume. To a large extent the District owed its growth in 1952 to the defense program. Expansion of output in aircraft, ordnance, and electronics, plus a revival in shipbuilding contributed to the higher level of activity in the District. Continued migration of industry into the District, includ ing many firms producing products not directly related to the defense program, also made a contribution to the higher level of activity. In addition, some industries which had been quiescent or weak made gains. There were some segments of the economy that declined, however, despite the over-all expansion. Real estate activity, reflecting a much slower turnover of older properties, declined; the lumber industry faced a soft market; and sales of new automobiles dropped well below the previous year’s level. Moreover, consumers, while spending at a record rate, proved to be discriminating buyers, and retailers had to be aggressive in gauging their desires. h e The Twelfth District shows a better record than the nation The greater impact of the defense program in the Twelfth District than in the nation is evident in a num ber of indicators. Total nonagricultural employment in the District gained more than 3 percent, while nationally the gain was less than 1 percent. The prime factor in the employment upswing in the District occurred in manufac turing, in which the number of workers increased 6 per cent. The nation as a whole reported very little change in manufacturing employment. Strikes in certain major in dustries that are relatively less important in the Twelfth District than in the nation retarded the growth of manu facturing employment in the country as a whole. More over, in most lines of activity expansion was greater in the District than in the nation. Construction activity in the Twelfth District was up 10 percent over 1951, but nationally the gain was only 4 percent. Consumer spend ing expanded more here than in other parts of the country, primarily as a result of the larger gains in employment. Department store sales gained 2 percent in the District, but declined somewhat nationally. Industrial output of District expands Industrial production in the District expanded by more than 5 percent in 1952. Almost all the gain was concen trated in the durable goods industries— particularly those producing for the defense effort. Aircraft output made the largest contribution in absolute terms, and employment in that industry averaged 213 thousand workers monthly, about 35 percent more than in 1951. The ordnance indus try, though still rather small in over-all size, recorded the largest relative expansion in output and its employment was more than two and one-half times the 1951 number. Shipbuilding in the District had an impressive increase in activity as a result of a number of moderate-sized con tracts for small craft construction, more active ship re pair, and the first award in some years for large vessels. A large shipyard in Alameda on San Francisco Bay was granted a contract for five maritime hulls, but construc tion did not start until late in the year because of a lack of steel allocations. District electrical machinery output, which is concentrated in California, also had a good ex pansion owing to the very large demands by the military for electronics equipment. The lumber industry departed from the pattern set by other durable lines. District lumber production was about 6 percent below 1951. Even though home building was ahead of 1951, the supply of lumber, including distrib utors' inventories carried over from 1951, exceeded de mand during most of the year. Moderate price declines for ponderosa pine and Douglas fir induced a cutback in production. Nevertheless, output still exceeded shipments, and mill inventories increased substantially. Despite the rise in lumber stocks, inventories were still somewhat low relative to shipments. A ls o in This Issu e The Seasonal Pattern of Twelfth District Bank Loans to Business Annual Index, January-December 1952 106 FEDERAL RESERVE B A N K OF SA N FRANCISCO Production of nondurable goods in the District was about equal to that of 1951. The output of the food proc essing industry was somewhat smaller than in 1951 be cause of a smaller pack of canned products. The apparel industry made a slight gain for the year as a whole, but most of the increase came in the second half of the year. The upswing in apparel activity was in contrast to the experience in 1951, and the industry is quite optimistic concerning future prospects. Production of petroleum and chemicals continued to expand, and future growth in the petro-chemical industry was indicated by the start of construction of large plants in the San Francisco and Los Angeles areas. Residential building up sharply from 1951 Total construction in the Twelfth District surpassed the 1951 volume by a substantial margin, primarily as a result of a 20 percent increase in the number of residen tial units started. The value of residential construction authorized increased about 12 percent and the value of total construction about 10 percent. Though residential building ran well ahead of the previous year, builders were beset by a number of problems. Shortages of V A mortgage money limited the scope of the market. Credit restrictions under Regulation X and companion regula tions also tended to narrow sales possibilities during most of the year. T o move a large volume of units, builders had to concentrate their efforts in areas where defense pro duction was expanding and had to produce a lower priced house than formerly. That they were able to make these adjustments with some degree of success is evident from the larger volume of construction, very little of which re sulted in unsold inventories. Retail sales reflect rising incomes Except for automobiles, Twelfth District sales in most retail lines were ahead of 1951. Department store sales were 2 percent above 1951. Sales of food, gasoline, tele vision, and some appliances had a better record. Apparel sales proved a bright spot in the retail field and demon December 1952 strated increasing strength as the year progressed. Even though incomes were expanding, an increasing proportion of retail sales was financed by consumer credit. The in crease in commercial bank consumer credit that occurred after May, when Regulation W was suspended, exceeded 30 percent. Current outlook points to moderate gains The expansion that occurred in business activity in the Twelfth District in 1952 stands out prominently in any economic review of the year. Though the gains were smaller than in 1951, they are still impressive. It may be easy to gather from such a review that the impetus is still very strong. Careful examination of available evidence would tend to indicate that the upward swing has slowed considerably. This does not, however, presage a decline in activity in 1953. In fact, the evidence points to a wellsustained level of activity in most lines, with some expan sion likely in a few lines. Output of durable goods in the District, based on orders already placed for aircraft, ord nance, and electronics, could expand somewhat more. A c tivity in petroleum, chemicals, apparel, and utilities could also result in moderate additions to the output of the Dis trict. There is no reason to expect that consumers will un hinge their purses to the extent they did in some earlier years, but there appears to be just as little evidence to indicate that they will tighten up. Given somewhat larger incomes, their total spending will probably rise moder ately. Construction activity seems slated to continue at a good level, although there may be some reductions in mili tary and industrial construction. These declines could easily be offset by expected gains in commercial building and road construction, and by continued expansion of public utilities. The outlook, based on these prospects, points to a moderate expansion of the District economy during 1953. The critical factor in the situation is the defense program. If it should be slowed down significantly from present schedules for 1953, the pace of economic activity in the District would undoubtedly be slowed as a consequence. THE SEASONAL PATTERN OF TWELFTH DISTRICT BANK LOANS TO BUSINESS h e fact that there is a pronounced seasonality in bank loans to commerce, industry, and agriculture is well known. References continually are being made to loan ex pansion which is loosely characterized as greater, less than, or equal to that which could be expected on a sea sonal basis. To obtain a more accurate conception of these trends in the Twelfth District, a seasonal index of the commercial, industrial, and agricultural loans of weekly reporting member banks has been calculated on the basis of data from 1939 on. These weekly reporting banks hold about 88 percent of all loans to business outstanding at all District member banks and approximately 85 percent of those outstanding at all banks in the District. The index has been worked out on a monthly basis by con verting the weekly data into monthly averages. T Chart 1 shows the behavior since 1946 of the adjusted and unadjusted series. The seasonally adjusted series should be interpreted as increasing more rapidly than sea sonally expected when it slopes upwards, less rapidly when it slopes downwards, and following the seasonal pattern when it is horizontal. To show the usefulness of the seasonal index and the seasonal adjustment, the last two years on the chart may be reviewed. The first three quarters of 1951 saw business loans in the District rise more than seasonally, and although it appears that they continued this rise through the end of the year, on a sea sonal basis they did little better than could be expected. In the first quarter of 1952 business loans fell, but no more than was seasonally expected. In the second quarter, how ever, they did not continue to decline as much as the sea December 1952 107 M O N T H L Y REVIEW sonal index would indicate, and then began to climb more rapidly than seasonally, a trend which has continued through November. A monthly rather than a weekly index was constructed because of the less reliable seasonality of weeks as com pared with months and because of other difficulties in the use and construction of weekly indexes. These difficulties arise because of changes in dates of specific weeks from year to year and because of the numerous adjustments which must be made for holidays, some of which do not occur on specific dates but rather on specific days of the week, the date shifting in accordance therewith.1 As a result of these and other complexities, the weekly data were averaged by months to provide the series used. 1 A week ending January 2, for example, could not be considered the first week of the year since there are more days in the week from the prior year. I t would thus be necessary for strict accuracy to have 365 separate index numbers for each week ending on a specific date, and one for leap The general monthly pattern of loans to business in this District, where not obscured by very rapid change, is a decline in the first half of the year, falling to a minimum in the period from April through August, and a rise in the fall. This pattern resembles that of national business loans, which show similar seasonality. In the national pattern, however, the dip appears more pronounced and the mini mum months run from May through July. years, as well as additional numbers for weeks including: holidays> which shift their dates from year to year. Further, since weeks end on different dates from year to year, the number of weeks ending1 on particular dates would be very small even over the twelve years here used. Moreover, in the course of investigating the seasonality of loans in this District, the question naturally arose as to the possibility of the seasonal pattern being due to chance. Although this possibility might be rejected on the basis of experience with the needs of specific borrowers, whose ac tivities are markedly seasonal, a statistical testing of the hypothesis was performed. On the basis of comparing the variance between years with the variance between months, the seasonal pattern is significant and is not due to chance. A similar test showed that there was not a sufficiently de pendable variation because of Easter falling in different months from year to year to adjust for it. 1 C O M M E R C IA L , IN D U S T R IA L , A N D A G R IC U L T U R A L LOANS OF R E P O R T IN G M EM BER B A N K S -T W E L F T H D IS T R IC T 1946-52 Thousands of dollars 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 N o t e : This chart only shows the loan series as revised in 1946. The prior data back through 1939 were also used in construction of the seasonal index and are shown in the accompanying tables. 108 December 1952 FEDERAL RESERVE B A N K OF S A N FRANCISCO ample, the extreme variation is from a seasonal index value of 96.2 in July to one of 104.5 in December. What might appear from the unadjusted data as a slump in loans may merely be what is seasonally expected, and, similarly, what might appear as an extraordinary expan sion may merely be a seasonal increase. Increases or de creases which are more than seasonal should be carefully appraised since a number of factors may be reflected in the change. It may be, for example, that there is real secular growth in loans as the economy grows. On the other hand, an extraordinary increase or decrease may be a result of nonseasonal factors which are random in char acter, such as a steel strike or a flood. In addition, the seasonal pattern may not be exactly the same from year to year and small but non-persistent deviations of the actual from the expected should cause little concern. The method of construction of the seasonal index may be briefly described. After averaging the weekly data, a centered twelve-month moving average was computed and the monthly average computed as a percent of the moving average. The resultant monthly “ specific seasonals,, were then averaged by months, after elimination of two extremes for each month. These seasonals were then adjusted to total 1200. The seasonal index for each month, as finally arrived at, is shown in Table 2, together with some derivative computations which may be of value for specific uses. No adjustments to the data have been made other than eliminating the extreme values. Although a more flexible procedure utilizing freehand curves cor recting for erratic behavior could have been used, a mechanical method was deliberately used so as to make clear all the procedures underlying the construction of the index. The seasonal index is shown graphically on Chart 2. The variation shown on the chart is significant in ap praising the volume of loans at a particular time. For ex If it is desired to adjust future raw data as released by this bank, it is necessary to average the weekly data for the month and divide the result by the seasonal index for the month. The seasonal pattern of loans to business by individual banks in this District may vary substantially T able 1 Commercial, I ndustrial, and A gricultural Loans of R eporting M ember Banks T welfth F ederal Reserve D istrict, 1939-1952 in Leading Cities* in the (in millions of dollars) Unadjusted Jan. Year Feb. M ar. Apr. M ay June July Aug. Sept. 352 356 392 509 447 519 515 618 1,164 346 358 407 525 441 496 501 628 1,190 338 352 418 530 429 482 483 645 1,200 325 350 427 518 441 474 480 662 1,190 321 345 443 502 437 467 489 690 1,189 318 350 464 317 348 473 487 441 469 503 750 479 450 472 521 811 332 362! 492 479 477 478 534 904 1,696 1,994 2,039 1,895 2,636 2,848 1,694 2,016 2,002 1,892 2,677 2,853 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 ...................... ...................... ....................... ...................... . ...................... ....................... ...................... ...................... ....................... ...................... . ...................... . ...................... ....................... 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... 1,621 1,982 2,265 2,000 1,656 1,999 2,191 1,975 2,499 2,878 1,685 2,005 2,148 1,968 2,542 2,853 1,704 1,976 2,108 1,928 2,591 2,848 1939 1940 1941 1942 ...................... ....................... ........................ ...................... ........................ ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... 341 337 347 351 386 501 440 511 507 609 1,147 344 355 404 521 438 493 497 624 1,182 343 357 424 537 435 489 490 654 1,217 1,631 1,673 1,991 2,133 1,954 347 517 519 1,131 .. .. Oct. N ov. D ec. 340 367 510 480 523 497 551 1,000 341 375 523 486 530 503 566 1,071 348 383 533 476 532 516 603 1,106 . . .. .. .. .. .. 1,128 1,704 2,045 1,933 1,921 2,664 2,878 1,209 1,750 2,107 1,921 1,983 2,726 2,933 1,334 1,821 2,160 1,956 2,105 2,806 3,038 1,470 1,870 2,184 1,961 2,228 2,860 3,100 1,559 1,906 2,252 2,000 2,319 2,924 3,225 1,602 1,966 2,297 2,018 2,437' 2,954 331 364 482 506 327 359 488 494 334 364 494 481 458 488 464 487 538 837 479 480 537 909 334 361 501 472 514 489 542 983 330 363 507 471 514 487 548 1,038 333 367 510 456 509 494 577 1,058 Seasonally adjusted 1943 1944 1945 1946 502 451 1947 ...................... . ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... 498 591 1,099 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... 1,575 1,926 2,201 1,943 2,413 2,852 . . .. ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... 1,969 2,159 1,946 2,462 2,835 2,524 2,833 333 332 359 438 531 452 486 357 459 520 452 492 679 483 506 714 1,220 1,231 .. .. 1,738 2,044 2,090 1,754 2,087 2,072 1,941 2,702 2,919 1,959 2,771 1,173 1,771 2,126 2,009 1,997 .. .. 1 ,7 2 8 2,004 2,138 1,955 2,627 2,888 2,953 523 780 2,769 2,992 . . . . 1,247 1,806 2,174 1,982 2,046 2,813 3,027 1,341 1,830 2,171 1,966 2,116 2,820 3,053 1,445 1*839 2,147 1,928 2,191 2,812 3,048 1,511 1,847 2,182 1,938 2,247 2,833 3,125 1,533 1,881 2,198 1,931 2,332 2,827 *D id not include offices of reporting branch banks outside of the head office prior to July 1947. A fter this date all branches were included. The new series was carried back through July 1946. N o t e : M onthly data are averages of weekly data. W eek s ending on dates including four days of the month were credited to that month. December 1952 C hart 2 T able 2 M onthly S easo nal 109 M O N T H L Y REVIEW I ndex A g r ic u l t u r a l L o a n s of of C o m m e r c ia l , I n d u s t r ia l , a n d R e p o r t in g M e m b e r B a n k s in L e a d in g C it ie s o f t h e T w e l f t h F e d e r a l R e se r v e D is t r ic t SE A S O N A L IN D E X C O M M E R C IA L , IN D U S T R IA L . A N D A G R IC U L T U R A L L O A N S T W E L F T H D IS T R I C T Index Quarter (----- ending in month------\ Seasonal index . . . . 102.9 . . , 101.5 . . . . 100.7 . . . . 98.6 . . . , 97.5 June ............... . . , , 96.6 July ............... . . . . 96.2 August . . . . . . . . 96.9 September . . . , , , 99.5 October . . . . . . . . 101.7 November . . . . . . 103.2 December . . . . . . 104.5 Month January . . . . February . . . March .......... A p r i l ............... M ay ............... Percent of preceding month 98.47 98.64 99.21 97.91 98.88 99.08 99.58 100.73 102.68 102.21 101.47 101.25 Percent of year 8.58 8.46 8.40 8.22 8.13 8.05 8.02 8.08 8.30 8.48 8.60 8.71 Percent of preceding quarter Percent of year 98.64 25.44 95.91 24.40 100.00 24.40 105.70 25.79 from that of the aggregate of these loans for the District, since borrowers from particular banks may be more heavily concentrated in particular industries. In addition, this pattern for the individual bank may have undergone some change over the past ten or fifteen years. The sea sonal pattern here shown may then be useful for compara tive purposes and to point up the differences between the general pattern of loans for all banks in the District and the pattern for a specific bank. This bank will be pleased to offer technical assistance to those banks in the District who may wish to explore more fully the seasonal pattern of their own lending. 110 FEDERAL RESERVE B A N K OF SA N FRANCISCO December 1952 BUSINESS INDEXES—TWELFTH DISTRICT1 (1947-49 average = 100) In d u strial production (p h ysical volu m e)* Year an d m o n th 1929 1931 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1933 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 Lum ber Petroleum « C ru d e R e fin e d C e m e n t 97 51 41 44 54 70 74 58 72 79 93 93 90 90 72 85 97 104 99 112 114 87 57 52 52 62 64 71 75 67 67 69 74 85 93 97 94 100 101 99 98 106 118 109 93 107 108 110 94 117 108 106 109 116 Lead* Copper* W heat flour* T o ta l W a te rb o rn e nonagri- T o ta l C a rD ep’ t foreign cu ltu r a l m f’g loadlngs Retail store tra d e 5* • E le c tric e m p lo y em ploy* (n u m sales food power m ent m e n t4 ber)2 (v a lu e)1 prices*»1 E x p o r t s I m p o r t s ' 103 103 112 54 36 27 35 33 58 56 45 56 61 81 96 79 63 65 81 96 104 100 112 128 165 100 72 76 86 96 114 92 93 108 109 114 100 90 78 70 94 105 101 109 105 49 17 24 37 64 88 58 80 94 107 123 125 112 90 71 106 101 93 115 115 90 86 75 81 87 81 84 81 91 87 87 88 98 101 112 108 113 98 88 86 95 40 43 49 60 76 82 78 78 90 101 108 119 136 107 107 106 114 116 109 130 124 119 80 85 116 114 118 96 99 101 106 106 106 107 108 107 107 107 107 107 111 113 115 114 114 116 116 122 122 117 94 112 113 120 129 126 125 131 131 142 109 109 115 117 116 112 106 105 112 112 105 90 88 87 84 90 103 99 96 78 55 50 50 56 61 65 64 63 63 68 71 83 93 98 91 98 100 29 29 26 28 30 34 30 25 18 21 24 28 30 28 31 33 40 49 59 65 72 91 99 104 98 105 108 64 50 42 45 48 48 50 48 47 47 52 63 69 68 70 190 138 110 132 135 131 170 164 163 132 124 80 72 78 109 116 119 87 95 101 100 101 96 95 99 102 99 103 110 47 54 60 51 55 63 83 121 164 158 122 104 100 102 98 105 119 102 68 52 60 66 77 81 72 77 82 95 102 99 105 100 101 106 100 94 97 100 80 96 103 100 100 113 89 129 86 85 91 186 57 81 98 121 137 157 141 140 136 111 111 111 120 121 120 101 101 100 106 114 110 113 114 117 187 182 192 172 144 130 142 139 142 141 147 150 150 153 145 113 113 112 112 112 113 114 114 114 115 122 124 125 126 125 126 127 129 128r 130 101 100 106 98 108 96 101 108 106 108 103 106 118 114r 110 116 114 118 116 114 114 116 115 115 114 114 114 113 183 208 210 185 207 187 144 153 146 138 157 143 143 182 187 293 1951 October November December 1952 January February March April May June July August September October 104 96 95 89 87 68 81 78 r 80 BANKING AND CREDIT STATISTICS—TWELFTH DISTRICT (amounts in millions of dollars) Year and m o n th 1929 1931 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 C o n d itio n Item s o f all m e m b e r b a n k s 7 L oans U .S . D em an d and deposits G o v ’t d is c o u n t s s e c u r itie s ad ju sted* T o ta l t im e d e posits B ank rates on short-term bu sin ess loans* 2,239 1,898 1,486 1,469 1,537 1,682 1,871 1,869 1,967 2,130 2,451 2,170 2,106 2,254 2,663 4,068 5,358 6,032 5,925 7,105 7,907 495 547 720 1,064 1,275 1,334 1,270 1,323 1,450 1,482 1,738 3,630 6,235 8,263 10,450 8,426 7,247 6,366 7,016 6,392 6,533 1,234 984 951 1,201 1.389 1,791 1,740 1,781 1,983 2.390 2,893 4,356 5,998 6,950 8,203 8,821 8,922 8,655 8,536 9,244 9,940 1,790 1,727 1.609 1,875 2,064 2,101 2,187 2,221 2,267 2,360 2,425 2.609 3,226 4,144 5,211 5,797 6,006 6,087 6.255 6.256 6,720 3.20 3.35 3.66 7,885 7,907 6,356 6,533 9,584 9,940 6,625 6,720 3.82 7,806 7,760 7,787 7,850 7,921 8,062 8,114 8,270 8,444 8,605 8,805 6,543 6,413 6,378 6,313 6,238 6,258 6,507 6,469 6,473 6,765 6,808 9,951 9,420 9,426 9,408 9,306 9,501 9,643 9,679 9,908 10,125 10,281 6,806 6,900 6,915 6,924 6,985 7,083 7,143 7,197 7,249 7,336 7,331 M e m b e r ban k reserves an d related Ite m s 10 Reserve ban k c red it11 + - Î 4* 34 21 2 7 C oin and C o m m ercia l T reasu ry cu rrency in o p era tio n s12 o p e ra tio n s12 c irc u la tio n 11 0 Reserves B an k debits Index 31 cities** *• (1 9 4 7 -4 9 100)* 4 107 214 98 76 9 302 17 13 39 21 154 110 198 163 227 90 240 192 148 596 - 1 ,9 8 0 - 3 ,7 5 1 - 3 ,5 3 4 - 3 ,7 4 3 - 1 ,6 0 7 510 + 472 930 - 1 ,1 4 1 - 1 ,5 8 2 23 4* 154 4 - 150 + 257 + 219 + 454 157 + 4- 276 4- 245 + 420 -1,000 4-2,826 4-4,486 4-4,483 4-4,682 4-1,329 4- 698 482 4- 378 4-1,198 4-1,983 236 276 - 102 « 118 4- 279 18 14 2,392 2,269 137 141 228 109 17 237 174 97 208 126 153 294 29 194 111 272 102 185 190 288 163 213 267 79 86 20 7 13 49 29 7 49 4 32 34 2,416 2,365 2,313 2,341 2,347 2,209 2,333 2,535 2,363 2,527 2,616 134 138 139 135 128 144 134 134 144 146 141 6 1 3 2 4 6 48 18 4 14 38 3 20 31 96 227 643 708 789 545 326 206 209 65 14 189 175 147 185 242 287 479 549 565 584 754 930 1,232 1,462 1,706 2,033 2,094 2,202 2,420 1,924 2,026 2,269 42 28 18 21 25 30 32 29 30 32 39 48 61 69 76 87 95 103 102 115 132 1951 November December + - 4 1952 January February Maroh April May June July August September October November * 3.94* 3Ì95* * *3.90 * t Ï Ï 84 180 309 176 52 211 45 213 230 236 72 1 Adjusted for seasonal variation, except where indicated. Except for department store statistics, all indexes are based upon data from outside sources, as follows: lumber, various lumber trade associations; petroleum, cement, copper, and lead, U .S. Bureau of M ines; wheat flour, U .S. Bureau of the Census; electric power, Federal Power Commission: nonagrioultural and manufacturing employment, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and cooperating state agencies; retail food prices, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; carloadings, various railroads and railroad associations; and foreign trade, U .S. Bureau of the Census » D a ily average. * N ot adjusted for seasonal variation. « Excludes fish, fruit, and vegetable canning. * Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Beattie indexes combined. • Commercial cargo only, in physical volume, for Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego, Oregon, and Washington customs districts; starting with July 1950, special category exports are excluded because of security reasons. » Annual figures are as of end of year, monthly figures as of last Wednesday m month or, where applicable, as of call report date. * Demand deposits, excluding interbank and U .S. G ov’t deposits, less ^ -■>- »------- <*^i cash items m process of collection. M onthly data partly estimated. • A— 1 -------------- c.-----------------; — w End of year and end of month figures. 11 Changes from end in ths case of commercial operations, and excess of reoeipts over exoluding inter-bank deposits. r— revised.
@FedFRASER