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Monthly, Ä Revieur J FEDERAL RESERVE B A N K OF S A N DE C E MB E R F R A N C ISC O 1948 REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS terms production, employment, and income INinover-all the Twelfth District and the United States continued at high levels into the last quarter of the year. Some soft spots developed, however, and year-period comparisons became less favorable in a number of lines, particularly in retail trade. Recent months have been distinguished by relatively stable industrial prices, except for metals. In November, the Bureau of Labor Statistics index of wholesale prices of other than farm and food products was unchanged for the fourth month. Declining farm prices brought the all commodity index for November 3 percent below the August peak. The index declined slightly further in early December to a level no higher than a year earlier. The Bureau’s index of consumer prices declined fractionally in November for the second month, and was 1 percent below the September high, but 4 percent above November 1947. Nationally, industrial production showed little change in November from the high level attained in October. Nondurable goods production declined slightly, bringing a small decline in nonagricultural employment. In Cali fornia, factory employment declined somewhat more than seasonally in November, reflecting both seasonal de creases in canning and lumber and the first drop in five months in durable goods employment. Some of this de cline occurred in iron and steel and shipbuilding as well as in lumber. Total manufacturing employment was up 3 percent over a year ago, compared with year-period gains of 4 percent in October and 8 percent in September. With early winter weather and slackened demand, the unfavorable situation in the Pacific Coast lumber industry continued in November. Lumber shipments by water were resumed after the end of the maritime strike in early December. Copper production declined sharply be cause of a labor dispute in a Utah mine, one of the largest in the country. Building permits issued for all types of construction in Twelfth District urban areas increased fractionally in value in October after the sharp September drop of 30 percent from the all-time peak reached in August. Per mits issued for residential construction increased slightly in both number and value. In California, total employ ment in construction fell from September to October by nearly 5,000 employees to 194,900. Relatively stable commodity prices, lagging depart ment store sales, and a softer real estate market were not accompanied by any marked slowing down in Twelfth District bank loan expansion. Loans continued to rise through mid-December, although at a somewhat slower pace than in August and September. Bank loan expansion slowed down considerably more in the country as a whole, however, than in the District. Commercial, industrial, and agricultural loans of Twelfth District weekly reporting member banks, after rising at a retarded rate in October, increased more in November than in any previous month this year. Real estate loans increased almost as much as in earlier months. Consumer instalment loans of District banks leveled off, however, reflecting in part the reimposition of Regulation W in September. Furniture store sales in the District fell below the dollar volume of a year ago in October and November, for the first time since February. Department store sales, discussed in more detail below, and sales of apparel stores were also down from a year ago in October and No vember. Declines were especially pronounced in sales of men’s clothing and home appliances. Credit sales were a slightly larger proportion of total sales in department and furniture stores than a year earlier, and collections rela tive to accounts receivable were considerably smaller than last year. District Christmas Sales Disappointing Pre-Christmas sales in Twelfth District department stores were 3 percent lower in dollar amount than last year, the first such decline in Christmas buying in 10 years. The decline was not confined to this District, but extended over the country as a whole. It was an exten sion of the downturn in department store sales com pared with a year earlier first evident in October. This development does not indicate a general collapse in con sumer spending, but it may mark the end of the unprece dented retail expenditures of the postwar years. Also in This Issue Twelfth District Steel Capacity Grows 110 FEDERAL RESERVE B A N K OF SAN FRANCISCO T W E L F T H D IS T R I C T D E P A R T M E N T S T O R E S A L E S during November and December 1938-48 (November-December 1940=100) 300 --- * 300 200 200 100 100 December 1948 This rather broad list of departments covers many non luxury as well as luxury items, indicating that the de cline was somewhat general. Store executives, however, tended to mention the luxury departments more fre quently as contributing to the decline. On the other hand, stores reported that moderately-priced apparel, costume jewelry, piece goods, boys’ wear, and some sportswear have exceeded expectations. One firm indicated that sales efforts emphasizing price reductions were the prime mover behind the success of its departments for which gains were reported. The inventory situation after Christmas 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 945 1946 1947 1948 *Estimated. Pre-Christmas department store sales decline After nine years of uninterrupted increases over the previous year in the amount of money spent at Twelfth District department stores during the pre-Christmas sea son, holiday sales in the eight weeks ending December 25 were below last year. Six of the eight weeks in this period showed decreases from a year ago. It is only the most recent two of these weeks which show an increase. In the week ending December 18, department store sales were 1 percent ahead of the corresponding week in 1947, and because of two extra shopping days before Christmas this year, the week ending December 25 was 28 percent ahead of its counterpart last year. The 3 percent decline in dollar sales in the District and the 1 percent decline in the United States for the eight weeks as a whole offer an even sharper contrast when compared with the un usually strong year-period gains in each of the last three years. In 1945, pre-Christmas sales rose markedly over the previous year, although production and employment had been curtailed somewhat in the first few months after the end of the war. The expansion of employment and the increased flow of goods brought another substantial pre-Christmas increase in 1946, and the continued strong demand and higher prices set an all-time record in the Christmas season of 1947. But in 1948, with personal in come at an all-time high, with production virtually at a peacetime high, and with taxes lower in all income brack ets than for several years, pre-Christmas sales fell be hind last year. W eak points and strong points Department store executives in the Twelfth District reported in mid-December that departments not coming up to expectations in Christmas trade at that time w ere: toys, cosmetics and toiletries, blouses and neckwear, leather goods, women’s hosiery, women’s shoes, women’s coats and suits, housecoats and robes, furs, men’s fur nishings, silverware, radios, and household appliances. There was a feeling among many department store executives that stocks would be greater at year-end than they had planned. This indicated that the value of inven tories on hand at the end of December would be in ex cess of year-ago levels. Even though the stocks of mer chandise among departments were expected to be in good balance, most stores indicated that more substantial clear ance sales would be held early in 1949 than have been held in most post-Christmas seasons of recent years. M any reasons for the sales decline have been advanced Through September District department store sales were well ahead of each corresponding month last year. On a seasonally adjusted basis an all-time high was set in June but was later erased in August by an even higher level of sales. The high level of sales during this period was stimulated by extensive promotions and clearances. Advertisements in newspapers and shopping news publications were much more extensive than for several years. Though September fell below the August peak, it was not until October that sales began to fall behind last year’s levels. For three weeks this District led the way downward for the country. In the last week of October this decline had spread to the Mississippi and even beyond to Chicago; since then the country as a whole has reported successive year-period decreases, except for the most recent two weeks. Though current income fig ures are not available, some evidence of consumer con servatism appears in the third quarter figures. Thirdquarter disposable personal income for the country as a whole was 5 % billion dollars ahead of the second quarter (based on annual rates), but consumer spending went up only two billion dollars. Department store executives, interviewed for pur poses of this survey, clearly indicated that no one reason alone could be given which would completely explain their lagging sales. Uppermost in their minds, however, was the fact that consumers have been spending heavily for some time and that for many, this has meant substan tial reductions in their liquid savings available for spend ing. The pressure on consumers, including many in the middle income brackets as well as small consumers, is evident from the increase in credit buying and the corre spondingly slower rate of collections over last year. Also cited by some was an increased resistance of consumers to prices, while others remarked upon a much greater con December 1948 111 M O N T H L Y REVIEW sciousness of the relationship of price to quality than at any time since the war. Still another point of view was that now the stores had plentiful stocks, buyers were tend ing to shop later, and that the last two weeks before Christmas would bring considerable improvement. Only slight reference was made to Regulation W restrictions on credit as a cause for the decline, and one store felt that the election had had some effect. What the decline may mean It might be well to note, however, that even with the 3 percent drop in Christmas sales below last year, the level of sales for December and November is slightly better than that of 1946, not a bad year. Of course, recognition must be taken of the fact that retail prices are consider ably higher now than two years ago. Thus, a dollar vol ume this year equal to that of 1946 would suggest a smaller physical volume of goods moving over the coun ter than two years ago. Expenditures by consumers in 1946 were stimulated by wartime accumulated liquid assets in the hands of many consumers and a need for goods which had not been available for several years. But after considerable spending in 1946 and 1947, not only do some consumers have fewer dollars to spend out of past savings, but their needs for some things are not so urgent. Now that the most urgent demands have been met, the views regard ing price and price-quality consciousness have increasing significance. Some consumers, beset by a high cost of living, and having a narrow spending margin, may be waiting prices out based on their present stocks of goods; while even those with a somewhat greater margin may want just a little more for their money. In addition in 1946, though less so in 1947, consumers found few new houses and automobiles to buy, and expenditures on gen eral merchandise were made more freely. With the rapid rate of home construction and automobile production this year, department stores have been faced with increased competition for consumers’ dollars. The decline in Christmas sales, while unusual when compared with recent years, does not presage a general collapse of retail trade. Yet, one can reasonably expect that retail sales for the next several months may be at somewhat more moderate levels than those of mid-1948. Consumers have become more strongly price-and quality conscious and sales effort may have to be correspondingly greater. TWELFTH DISTRICT STEEL CAPACITY G RO W S t e e l ingot capacity in the Twelfth District has in Screased almost four-fold since 1940, compared with a national increase of less than 20 percent. District capacity comprises slightly more than 4 percent of total United States capacity. Although twice as much steel is currently consumed in the District as in 1940, present ingot capac ity permits finished steel production equivalent to twothirds of current consumption, whereas capacity in 1940 yielded finished steel equivalent to about 30 percent of consumption. Current ingot capacity of 3.9 million tons will probably grow as a result of known planned expan sions to about 4.5 million tons a year from now. Since past experience in this District has shown that a given tonnage of ingots yields only 75 percent of its weight in finished steel, this expected level of ingot production will provide about 3.4 million tons of finished steel, compared with estimated current consumption of 4.5 million tons. If consumption remains at present levels, it will be neces sary to purchase even more steel outside the District than is indicated by this gap, since there is a lack of specialized finishing capacity for a variety of items needed here. The major problem at present is to supply the necessary pig iron and scrap to utilize the production potential fully. Some relief is in sight from additional blast furnace capacity and a possibly higher rate of scrap production. the American Iron and Steel Institute. Interviews with steel companies in this District indicate a further increase of about 3 percent during the current year. In 1949, how ever, a 15 percent increase over current year levels is anticipated. At the present time steel ingot capacity in the District totals 3.9 million tons and is almost 4 times the 1940 capacity. The war brought about a marked expansion of District capacity, especially at Geneva and Fontana, and by the end of 1944, capacity totaling 2.4 million tons had been added. Little change occurred in 1945 and 1946. Expansion in 1947 and 1948 has largely reflected inS T E E L I N G O T C A P A C I T Y - T W E L F T H D IS T R IC T as of January 1, 1940-48 District capacity increasing again Steel ingot capacity, after remaining almost stationary for two years, increased 6 percent between January 1, 1947 and January 1,1948, according to recent figures from 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 112 S teel C a p a c it y in FEDERAL RESERVE B A N K OF S A N FRA N C ISCO the T w elfth Ja n u a r y D is t r ic t b y A r e a s a s o f 1, 1947-1950 1949f 1950t 406 758 1,121 1,283 4121 77 0 1 1,3322 1,283 4422 845 3 1,332 1,283 5012 1,2452 1,4 7 2 2 1,283 3,568 3,797 3,902 4,501 1947 Seattle-Tacoma-Portland .......... San Francisco Bay ...................... Southern California ...................... . . . . Geneva ................................................. . , . . Total Twelfth D istrict............ .. .. 1948 Sources: January 1, 1947, U . S. Department of Commerce, and American Iron and Steel Institute; January 1, 1948, American Iron & Steel Insti tute and Iron A g e ; January 1, 1949 and 1950 estimates for Twelfth D is trict based on 1948 figures and interviews with producers. tEstim ated. 1 Change in capacity represents technological improvement. 2 Additional furnace capacity added or to be added. 3 Includes increase in technical efficiency of 15,000 tons and reactivation of idle W a r Assets Administration installation at Pittsburg, California with capacity of 60,000 tons. creased technical efficiency in handling existing installa tions. A 96-thousand ton furnace in Los Angeles, a 30thousand ton furnace in Tacoma, and reactivation of a 60-thousand ton facility at Pittsburg, California, under a lease from the War Assets Administration were the only physical additions to plant capacity during the 2-year period. Next year capacity totaling almost 600 thousand tons is scheduled to be installed. At Niles, California, facilities will be increased by four open hearth furnaces, whose capacity is estimated at 400 thousand tons; in Portland a furnace is nearing completion; and at Fontana a seventh open hearth furnace is nearing operation. These scheduled additions may be augmented somewhat by increases in capacity on account of further technological improve ments elsewhere and perhaps more new furnaces not yet announced. In any event, it appears that capacity by Janu ary 1, 1950 will be close to 4.5 million tons. The relationship of capacity to consumption Before the war various estimates placed steel consump tion in the Twelfth District at about 2.2 million tons annu ally. Based on ingot capacity alone, this would mean that half the District’s steel was imported from other parts of the country. Actually the ratio of imports was much higher— about 70 percent— because of the fact that a given quantity of raw steel results in some scrap produc tion while being converted to finished products, and the inability of District plants to provide certain products. For example: sheet piling, skelp, pipe, steel rails, seam less tubes, stainless steel, wide flange beams, cold rolled sheets, cold finished bars, sheared plates, and a number of other items were not available from District plants before the war. Much of the capacity added during the war did not increase significantly the range of products supplied. The major item added was substantial sheared plate capacity. The postwar expansion has witnessed improvement in the District’s sheet, tin plate, and butt weld pipe capacity, but local production of many specialty items is not yet December 1948 underway. Therefore, even though consumption is now estimated at 4.5 million tons, the 4.5-million-ton ingot capacity in prospect for 1950 will not meet the needs of steel users at the present rate of consumption. Stainless steel, seamless pipe and tubing, wide flange beams, steel rails as well as some sizes and types of other products are still not available from District production. Furthermore, the finished product yield from present ingot capacity may be less than 3.5 million tons. At the same time the demand for plates will draw some of the District’s plate production to other parts of the country. Though the District is by no means self-sufficient in terms of the great variety of steel products consumed, sufficient ingot capac ity exists to satisfy a considerable portion of the District’s requirements, and has made possible an expansion in the number of finished products produced. Further expan sion of finishing facilities may still occur. Problems of pig iron and scrap supply Steel capacity in the Twelfth District is pushing against a ceiling imposed, at least for the present, by a lack of scrap supplies commensurate with the demand. This Dis trict’s steel economy in prewar years was built almost en tirely on scrap, although one Utah blast furnace supplied pig iron to a Pittsburg, California plant in relatively minor quantities. At present the several furnaces at Ge neva and one at Fontana supply the District with about 1.8 million tons of pig or less than half the metallic raw material required for steel production. This leaves a deficit well over 2 million tons to be filled by scrap steel after allowance for the requirements of iron foundries. Before the war, a plentiful supply of scrap at low cost was readily available. The increased demand for scrap combined with a reduction in the rate at which automo biles and other equipment have been junked has made the situation critical. The ship breaking program has helped some, but that is now approaching termination. One source of relief would be more pig iron. An addi tional blast furnace at Fontana should be completed late in 1949 and will add some 400 thousand tons of pig iron capacity. Further expansion of pig iron production is re stricted by limited known deposits of high-grade ores and coal in reasonable proximity. At present the Geneva plant has adequate supplies of both ore and coal, but Fon tana is supplied with coal from Utah and Oklahoma and reportedly has overcome its disadvantage in this respect through improved technology. Development of techniques of utilizing lower-grade ores or coal deposits may add to the possibilities of expansion. Additional relief may come from a more rapid rate of scrapping automobiles now that automobile production has satisfied a substantial portion of backlog demand. Also, larger scrap supplies might permit slight expansion based on improved operations through better selection of the scrap charges which are fed to the furnaces. 112A F E D E R A L RESERVE B A N K OF S A N December 1948 F R A N C IS C O BUSINESS INDEXES— TW ELFTH DISTRICT1 (1935-39 average 100,) In d u stria l p ro d u ction (physical v o lu m e )2 Y e ar an d M o n th Lum ber Petrol eu m 8 C rude Refined C e m e n t Lead* W heat Copper* flour* T o ta l C a li C ar D ep ’ t D ep ’ t m f’g forn ia loadin gs store R eta il store Electric e m p lo y fa cto ry (n u m sales stock s food power m e n t 4 payrolls4 ber)* (valu e)2 ( v a lu e ) 6 prices 3«( 1929_________ 1930_________ 1931_________ 1932_________ 1933................. 1934_________ 1935_________ 1936_________ 1937_________ 1938............... .. 1939_________ 1940_________ 1941_________ 1942_________ 1943_________ 1944_________ 1945............... 1946_________ 1947_________ 148 112 77 46 62 67 83 106 113 88 110 120 142 141 137 136 109 130 141 129 101 83 78 76 77 92 94 105 110 99 98 102 110 125 137 144 139 147 127 107 90 84 81 81 91 98 105 103 103 103 110 116 135 151 160 148 159 110 96 74 48 54 70 68 117 112 92 114 124 164 194 160 128 131 165 193 171 146 104 75 75 79 89 100 118 96 97 112 113 118 104 93 81 73 98 160 106 75 33 26 36 57 98 135 88 122 144 163 188 192 171 137 109 163 106 100 101 89 88 95 94 96 99 96 107 103 103 104 115 119 132 128 133 83 84 82 73 73 79 85 96 105 102 112 122 136 167 214 231 219 219 256 1947 S eptem ber_________ October_____________ Novem ber__________ Decem ber__________ 143 148 154 162 147 148 150 149 162 166 163 160 193 187 205 215 98 96 107 98 168 141 151 161 123 134r 133 116 1948 January_____________ February____________ M a rch ______________ April______ _________ M a y _________________ June_________________ J u ly ............... ................ A u g u s t _____________ Septem ber__________ October_____________ 144 152 148 133 122 128 153r 159r 155r 149 150 150 151 152 152 153 152 153 123 151 166 166 164 166 172 168 167 171 110 155 218 207 216 216 202 196 202 202 215 217 106 112 109 110 102 102 96 102 103 163 166 157 164 164 165 159 166 163 152 114 104 101 ‘ 116 108 115 123 124 123r 114 ’ *88 100 112 96 104 118 155 230 306 295 229 175 184 111 93 73 54 53 64 78 96 115 101 110 134 224 460 705 694 497 344 401 135 116 91 70 70 81 88 103 109 96 104 110 127 137 133 140 134 135 142 112 104 92 69 66 74 86 99 106 101 109 119 139 171 203 223 247 305 330 134 127 110 86 78 83 88 96 108 101 107 114 137 190 174 179 183 238 300 1 3 2 .0 1 2 4 .8 1 0 4 .0 8 9 .8 8 6 .8 9 3 .2 9 9 .6 10 0 .3 1 0 4 .5 9 9 .0 9 6 .9 9 7 .6 10 7 .9 13 0 .9 14 3 .4 1 42.1 146.3 1 6 7 .4 2 0 0 .3 259 263r 263 275 184 187 188 188 413 418r 421 423 139 141 143 144 347 342r 348 361 266 293 327 353 2 0 6 .6 2 0 4 .8 2 0 9 .4 2 1 3 .0 278 283 274 275 263 266 284 289 295 291 187 187 187 184 180 185 190 194 197p 194 p 418 417 406 396 406 424 440 455 454 452 141 130 131 130 123 134 137 141 146 132 348 327 339 362 364 372 365 383 355 336 360 377 388 386 347 335 328 302 311 333 2 1 5 .4 2 1 3 .0 2 1 1 .6 2 1 6 .0 2 1 7 .6 2 1 6 .6 2 1 8 .1 2 1 8 .0 2 1 8 .0 2 1 7 .0 BANKING AND CREDIT STATISTICS— TWELFTH DISTRICT (amounts in millions of dollars) M e m b e r b an k reserves an d related it e m s 8 C o n d itio n ite m s o f all m e m b e r b a n k s 7 Year and m o n th L o an s an d d isco u n ts U .S . G o v ’ t secu rities D em and deposits a d ju s t e d 9 T o ta l tim e dep osits C oin an d T reasu ry cu rren cy in Reserve C o m m ercia l b a n k c re d it10 op era tio n s10 o p e ra tio n s10 circu la tio n 10 1,334 1,270 1,323 1,450 1,482 1,738 3,630 6,235 8,263 10,450 8,426 7,243 1,234 1,158 984 840 951 1,201 1,389 1,791 1,740 1,781 1,983 2,390 2,893 4,356 5,998 6,950 8,203 8,821 8,928 1,790 1,933 1,727 1,618 1,609 1,875 2,064 2,101 2,187 2,221 2,267 2,360 2,425 2,609 3,226 4,144 5,211 5,797 6,006 — 34 — 16 21 + — 42 _ 2 — 7 2 + 6 + — 1 — 3 2 + 2 + 4 + 107 + + 214 98 + — 76 9 + — 302 5,158 5,240 5,363 7,361 7,361 7,243 8,722 8,797 8,928 5,964 5,922 6,006 + — — 5,413 5,467 5,510 5,509 5,569 5,598 5,640 5,743 5,848 5,910 5,984 7,264 7,021 6,945 6,943 6,883 6,859 6,816 6,712 6,394 6,440 6,358 8,854 8,495 8,452 8,461 8,445 8,464 8,556 8,555 8,661 8,647 8,658 6,021 6,063 6,044 6,019 6,008 6,057 6,010 6,005 6,003 6,018 5,998 + + — + + — + — + + 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 2,239 2,218 1,898 1,570 1,486 1,469 1,537 1,682 1,871 1,869 1,967 2,130 2,451 2,170 2,106 2,254 2,663 4,068 5,363 1947 October November December 1948 January February March April M ay June July August September October November 495 467 547 601 720 1,064 1,275 0 53 — 154 — 175 — 110 — 198 — 163 — 227 — 90 — 240 — 192 — 148 — 596 - 1 ,980 - 3 ,751 —3 ,534 - 3 ,743 - 1 ,607 — 443 23 + 89 + 154 + 234 + + 150 + 257 + 219 + 454 + 157 + 276 + 245 + 420 + 1 ,000 + 2 ,826 + 4 ,486 + 4 ,483 + 4 ,682 + 1 ,329 + 630 23 4 25 — + + + 14 20 49 9 30 14 15 23 17 12 25 48 + 153 + 29 + — 75 — 14 — 50 — 38 1 + + 427 — 8 40 — — 39 0 5 — + + + B an k de b its Index 3 1 cities*»11 Reserves (1 9 3 5 -3 9 = » 1 0 0 )* 6 16 48 30 — 18 4 + 14 + 38 + _ 3 20 + 31 + 96 + + 227 643 + + 708 + 789 + 545 326 — 206 175 183 147 142 185 242 287 479 549 565 584 754 930 1,232 1,462 1,706 2,033 2,094 2,202 298 326 35 33 49 — + — 16 3 18 2,137 2,130 2,202 346 344 365 — 253 — 244 — 19 29 + 45 + 28 + 43 + 12 + 98 — 35 7 + — — — — + — — 4+ + 113 2 37 17 26 13 11 17 2 8 8 2,113 2,045 2,066 2,048 2,068 2,061 2,075 2,065 2,409 2,351 2,323 352 354 347 353 342 348 354 356 359 363 355 146 126 97 68 63 72 87 102 111 98 102 110 134 165 211 237 260 1 All monthly indexes but wheat flour, petroleum, copper, lead, and retail food prices are adjusted for seasonal variation. Excepting for department store sta tistics, all indexes are based upon data from outside sources, as follows: Lumber, various lumber trade associations; Petroleum, Cement, Copper, and Lead, U .S. Bureau of Mines; Wheat flour, U.S. Bureau of the Census; Electric power, Federal Power Commission; Manufacturing employment, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and cooperating state agencies; Factory payrolls, California State Division of Labor Statistics and Research; Retail food prices, U .S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; and Carloadings, various railroads and railroad associations. 2 Daily average. 3 N ot adjusted for seasonal variation. 4 Excludes fish, fruit, and vegetable canning. Factory payrolls index covers wage earners only. 6 At retail, end of month or year. ® Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Seattle indexes combined. 7 Annual figures are as of end of year; monthly figures as of last Wednesday in month or, where applicable, as of call report date. 8 End of year and end of month figures. 8 Dema,nd deposits, excluding interbank and U .S. G ov’t deposits, less cash items in rocess of collection. M onthly data partly estimated. 18 Changes from previous month or year. 11 Debits to total deposit accounts, excluding interank deposits. p — preliminary. r— revised. E
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