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MONTHLY REVIEW OF B U S I N E S S C O N D IT IO N S JOHN PERRIN, Chairman of the Board and Federal Reserve Agent Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Vol. IX San Francisco, California, August 20, 1925 No. 8 S U M M A R Y O F N A T IO N A L C O N D IT IO N S Production in basic industries turned upward in July after a continuous decline since Janu ary. W holesale prices advanced further and the distribution of commodities continued in large volume. Production. The Federal Reserve Board’s index of production in basic industries, which makes allowance for usual seasonal variations, advanced by about 2 per cent in July to a point nearly 20 per cent above the low level of a year ago. Increased output was shown for lumber, coal, and cement, and cotton consumption de clined less than usual at this season, while out put of the iron and steel industry, and activity in the w ool industry continued to decrease. In nearly all the industries activity was greater than in July of last year. A m ong industries not represented in the index, the production of automobiles, rubber tires and silk continued large. V olum e of factory employment and earnings of industrial workers declined further in July, seasonal increases in the clothing, shoe, P E P C E N T P E R P rodu ction in B a sic Industries — Index of 22 basic commodities corrected for seasonal variation ( 1 9 1 9 = 1 0 0 ) . and meat packing industries being more than offset by decreases in the other industries. Building contracts awarded in July were in only slightly smaller volume than the excep tionally large total reached in June, and the total for the first seven months of this year ex ceeded that for any previous corresponding period. Estimates by the Department of A gri culture indicated a less favorable condition of all crops combined on August 1st than a month earlier. Expected yields of corn, wheat, rye, tobacco, and hay were somewhat smaller than in July, while the indicated production of oats, barley, and white potatoes was larger. A ccord ing to present indications, the yields of all prin cipal crops, except corn and barley, will be smaller than last year. The mid-August cotton crop estimate was 13,990,000 bales as compared with a forecast of 13,566,000 bales on August 1st. Trade. Freight car loadings during July were larger than in June and exceeded those of any Latest figure, July, 112. C E N T W h olesale P rices — Index of U . S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (1 91 3 = 100, base adopted by Bureau). Latest figure, July, 160. T h o s e d e s i r i n g t h is r e v ie w s e n t t h e m r e g u la r l y w i l l r e c e iv e it w it h o u t c h a r g e u p o n a p p lic a t i o n . 58 August, 1925 M O N TH LY REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS previous July. W eekly figures for the early weeks of August indicated a continued large volume of loadings. Sales at department stores showed less than the usual seasonal decline in July and were 3 per cent larger than a year ago. Mail order sales were considerably above those of July, 1924. W holesale trade continued at the June level and was 6 per cent larger in value than in July, 1924. Prices. W holesale prices advanced further by nearly 2 per cent in July, according to the index of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Prices Bank Credit. Demand for commercial credit at member banks in leading cities increased in August, and the volume of commercial loans on August 12th was larger than at any time since the middle of May, but still considerably below the level at the beginning of the year. Loans on securities increased between the middle of July and the middle of August, while the banks’ investments showed little change for the period. Discounts for member banks increased at all the reserve banks in recent weeks and the total on August 19th was the largest in more than BILLIONS OF DOLLARS D epartm ent Store Sales— Index of 333 stores in 117 cities (1 9 1 9 = 1 0 0 J . R e se rv e B ank C r e d it — W e e k ly figures for 12 Federal Reserve Banks, Latest figures, July, with correction, 1 2 8 ; without correction, 96. Latest figures, August 19. of farm products and of miscellaneous com m od ities rose over 4 per cent, reflecting chiefly in creases in livestock and rubber prices, while in the other com m odity groups price changes were relatively small. The general level of prices in July was 9 per cent higher than a year ago, the rise being chiefly in agricultural com modities. In August, raw sugar, potatoes, silk, metals, and fuels advanced, while grains, leather, hogs, and rubber declined. a year and a half. The reserve banks’ holdings of securities and bills bought in the open mar ket continued to decline, but total earningassets in the middle of August were near the high point for the year. During the latter part of July and the first half of August conditions in the money market were somewhat firmer. The pre vailing rate on prime commercial paper, which had remained at 3^4 to 4 per cent since early in May, advanced in August to 4J4 per cent. T W E L F T H F E D E R A L R E S E R V E D IS T R IC T C O N D IT IO N S Statistical Summary— comp^rec^with July, 1925 June, 1925 July, 1924 June, 1924 $2,751,302 $2,451,200 $2,377,641 Bank Debits— 21 cities*................................................. $2,766,952 Bank Debits— Index Num bersf— 20 cities........... 147 140 131 121 Building Permits— 20 cities.......................................... $33,155,732 $39,072,852 $30,843,574 $28,197,633 Retail Sales— 32 stores— Index N u m b ersf........... 150 147 142 135 Savings Deposits— 70 ban k s*§.................................... $1,115,638 $1,125,843$1,001,030° $1,004,472 Lumber Production— 4 associations— board feet* 681,238 728,185 537,297 616,664 Petroleum Production^— California— b a r r e ls .... 658,421 642,938 621,766 626,933 Flour Production— 16 companies— barrels........... 275,634 276,313 462,327 470,108 Reporting Member Bank Loans and Discounts]]* $1,105,452 $1,114,272 $1,002,491 $1,013,853 Reporting Member Bank Deposits||*...................... $1,541,596 $1,559,639 $1,373,396 $1,364,638 Federal Reserve Bank Discounts^*......................... $41,802 $37,939 $19,093 $22,408 Federal Reserve Bank Reserve Ratiofl.................. 74.7 75.9 82.4 83.2 July, 1924 12.9 12.2 7.5 5.6 11.4 26.8 5.9 — 40.4 10.3 12.2 118.9 — 9.4 June, 1925 0.6 5.0 — 15.1 2.0 — 0.9 — 6.4 2.4 — 0.3 — 0.8 — 1.2 10.2 — 1.6 * I n th ou sa n d s. f A d ju s t e d f o r s e a so n a l v a r ia tio n s — 1919 m o n t h ly a v e r a g e = r l0 0 . J D a ily a v e ra g e p r o d u c t io n . § T h e c o n s o lid a tio n o f r e p o r t in g b a n k s h as r e d u c e d th e ir n u m b e r, b u t has n o t a ffe c te d the v a lu e o f r e p o r te d fig u re s fo r c o m p a r a t iv e p u r p o s e s . ||August 5, J u ly 8, 1925, and A u g u s t 6 and J u ly 9, 1924. flA u g u st 12, J u ly 15, 1925, an d A u g u s t 13 an d J u ly 16, 1924. # P e r c e n t a g e in c re a s e or d e c r e a s e ( — ) . ° R e v is e d . August, 1925 59 FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT SAN FRANCISCO Agricultural Activities Estimates of yield of the principal crops of the district, based on early harvesting returns, show little change from forecasts made during the grow ing season, and indicate that this year’s agricultural output will approximate in volume the average of the past five years. The livestock industry has experienced a favorable summer and marketing of cattle, sheep, and hogs has proceeded in an orderly manner. Harvesting and threshing of important grain crops proceeded without serious check during July and the first half of August. Some damage was done to the wheat crop by unusually hot weather during July, and estimates of the dis trict’s total production were reduced by 2.0 per cent. Estimated total production as of August 1, 1925, was 99,014,000 bushels compared with 70,914,000 bushels produced in 1924,142,459,000 bushels produced in 1923, a year of record wheat production in this district, and the 19191923 five-year average production of 115,641,000 bushels. August 1st estimates of produc tion of barley in California showed an increase of 6.7 per cent over the July 1st forecast, the later figure being 31,899,000 bushels. Last year there were 10,080,000 bushels of barley pro duced in California and the average production for the five years 1919-1923 was 30,520,000 bushels. A general decline in condition and prospec tive yield of citrus fruits and deciduous fruit and nut crops was reported during July, but August 1st estimates of output were still higher than 1924 figures of production. The California raisin crop is now estimated at 261,000 tons, which compares with a production of 180,000 tons in 1924, 290,000 tons in 1923, and a fiveyear average production of 206,170 tons. Ship ments of fresh deciduous fruits from California (See Table “ A ” ) during the present season to July 31st were larger by 1,163 cars than during the same period in 1924, and 1,378 cars larger than the 1921-1925 five-year average shipments for the period January 1st to July 31st. The 1925 figures are a reflection both of a larger yield and of a tendency to ship a greater proportion of the crop to fresh fruit markets than has been the practice in recent previous years. C O N D IT IO N A N D P R O D U C T IO N — O R C H A R D C R O P S C a liforn ia t--------------------------- P rodu ction ----------------------------n P R O D U C T IO N —P R IN C IP A L G R A IN A N D F IE L D C R O P S* T w e lfth F éd éra l R eserve D istrict and U n ited States Prelim inary Estim ate F o re ca st A u g . 1,1925 July 1,1925 W h e a t (b u s h e ls ) T w e lft h D is t r ic t . . . 99,014 101,015 U n ite d S t a t e s . . . . . 678,446 679,590 B a rle y (b u s h e ls ) T w e lft h D is t r ic t . . . 46,607 47,113 U n ite d S ta te s . . . . . 213,596 208,475 R ic e (b u s h e ls ) C a lifo rn ia ............... 6,309 6,309 U n ite d S t a t e s . . . . . 36,224 38,066 B ea n s (b u s h e ls ) 4,597 T w e lft h D is t r i c t f . 4,676 U n it e d S t a t e s . . . . . 17,454 16,768 C o tto n (b a le s ) 199 T w e lft h D is t r i c t ! . U n ite d S ta te s . . . . 13,566 13,588 P o t a t o e s (b u s h e ls ) 34,790 35,101 T w e lft h D is t r ic t . . . U n ite d S t a t e s . . . . . 353,266 349,566 S u g a r B e e ts (t o n s ) 1,662 1,883 T w e lft h D is t r ic t § . U nited S t a t e s . . . . 6,139 6,195 H o p s (p o u n d s) T w e lft h D is t r ic t . . . 23,630 A ctu a l 1924 70,914 873,000 F iv e -Y e a r A v e ra ge 1919-1923 115,641 852,176 19,270 187,875 39,395 173,576 7,363 4,497 33,956 40,856 3,630 13,327 5,147 12,068 186 13,628 123 10,621 31,508 454,784 35,760 388,497 1,620 7,513 2,144 6,652 25,333 26,733 *000 om itte d . f C a lifo r n ia , A r iz o n a and I d a h o . ^ A r izo n a an d C a lifo rn ia . § C a lifo rn ia , I d a h o and U ta h . C o n d itio n A u gu st 1st— T e n -Y e a r A v er1925 age A lm o n d s . . A p r ic o t s * . G ra p es . . . . W in e . . . T a b le . . . R a is in . . O liv e s . . . . P e a ch e s . . P lu m s . . . . P ru n e s . . . W a ln u t s . . O ra n g e s . . L e m o n s .. . A p p le s § 12th D is t. U . S. . . . 56 64 83 79 85 80 76 69 79 75 72 65 94 84 80 71 71 92 87 (----- F o r e c a s t -------\ A u g .l, J u ly l, 1925 1925 (tons) $ 1 4 7 ,0 0 0 $ (tons) $ 1 4 7 ,0 0 0 $ Percentage increase or decrease(— ) A u gust 1st com pared w ith A ctu a l F orecast 1924 J u ly l, A ctu al (tons) 9 ,2 0 0 1 3 7 ,0 0 0 8 ,5 0 0 1 ,5 5 0 ,0 0 0 •— 3 5 0 , 0 0 0 •— — 3 0 0 ,0 0 0 ■ 9 0 0 ,0 0 0 — 1925 1924 $ Î 7 .3 0 t 6 .1 2 , 0 4 8 , 0 0 0 2 ,1 8 0 , 0 0 0 3 .0 3 8 6 ,0 0 0 3 9 8 ,0 0 0 $ 4 .2 4 3 7 ,0 0 0 4 5 6 ,0 0 0 $ 7 .6 1 ,3 2 6 ,0 0 0 1 ,2 2 5 ,0 0 0 $ 67 t 5 ,5 0 0 t t $ 3 8 7 ,0 0 0 3 9 2 ,0 0 0 3 2 0 ,0 0 0 — 1 .3 84 0 1 4 8 ,0 0 0 148,000 1 3 3 ,0 0 0 78 6 4 ,0 0 0 3 9 ,0 0 0 — 1 0 .9 78 5 7 ,0 0 0 145,000 139,000 77 Î Î 3 2 ,0 0 0 21,500 • — 3 .1 3 1 ,0 0 0 86 t 2 4 , 1 0 0 , 0 0 0 || 75 $ $ $ 6 , 7 3 2 , 0 0 0 78 Î $ $ $ 38,997 5 7 .2 t 9 1 ,0 9 2 4 0 ,2 5 7 8 7 ,6 9 0 3 2 ,1 8 4 8 5 ,7 6 1 — 3 .1 3 .9 $ 3 2 .1 1 0 .3 4 5 .7 3 6 .1 Î 2 0 .9 11.3 4 6 .2 4 .3 4 4 .2 Î Î 2 1 .2 6 .2 * H a r v e s t c o m p le te . t 2 8 p e r c e n t o f n o r m a l p r o d u c t io n . $N ot a v a ila b le . § P r o d u c t io n fig u re s are fo r c o m m e r c ia l c r o p in u n its o f o n e b o x . ||B o x e s . ( A ) A gricultural M arketing A ctivity— e------- E x p o r ts-------- \ ,-------------- C arlot Shipm ents-------------- \ L iv e s to ck R eceipts W heat* B arley* A p p le s* T otal at Eight M arkets in 12th D istrict Portland and San 12th D e cid u o u s O ra n gesf L e m o u sf Cattle Puget Sound F ra n cis co D ist. Fruits§ C a lif. C a lif. and (1000 bu.) (1000 bu.) (cars) (cars) (cars) C a lves M on th ly (cars) H ogs Sheep 7,452 332 1,630 517 2,672 1,700 91,562 J u ly , 1 9 2 5 ....................................... 143,353 302 605 147 2,420 3,367 1,801 94,021 178,636 Ju n e, 1 9 2 5 ....................................... 1,272 6,216 3,122 1,068 J u ly — 5 -y ea r a v e r a g e ................. 1,566 889$ 82,721 1 37,558 (1 9 2 0 -1 9 2 4 ) P - __Vi cui C alendar Y i C um ulative r a 1,630 10,259 32,888 332 517 9,684 T o J u ly 31, 1 9 2 5 ........................ 699,557 1 ,396,783 (3 .5 ) (9 .0 ) (7 9 .4 ) (8 4 .2 ) (3 .4 ) 548 1,114 9,096 39,377 1,135 10,574 T o J u ly 31, 1 9 2 4 ........................ 681,576 1,600,217 (2 4 .7 ) (5 .8 ) (7 .7 ) (8 5 .6 ) (7 6 .0 ) 1,272 889$ 8,881 35,651 1,566 F iv e -y e a r a v e ra g e to July 31. 8,515 610,979° 1,186,415° (3 .0 ) (1 3 .5 ) (1 6 .3 ) (8 0 .8 ) (7 8 .0 ) _____ (1 9 2 0 -1 9 2 4 ) ColdStorageHoldings 12th D istrict Butter Eggs (1000 (1000 lbs.) 4,802 3,345 5,541 F ig u r e s in p a re n th e se s in d ica te p e r c e n ta g e o f n e w c r o p o n ly * S e a s o n b e g in s J u ly 1st. f S e a s o n b e g in s N o v e m b e r 1st. $ F o u r -y e a r a v e ra g e (1922-23 to 192 5-2 6). C a li f o r n ia , e x c lu d in g ap p le s. S e a s o n b e g in s M a y 1st. Ju n e fig u re s t o J u n e 28th . IIAt en d o f m o n th . flF o u r -y e a r a v e r a g e . 01921-1925. cases) 572 521 58911 60 Mid-summer condition of livestock was above normal in most sections of the district. Recent rains have replenished the failing water supply on ranges in those parts of the Intermountain States and Arizona which suffered from drought during the first six months of 1925. A n increase in w ool production, both in this district and in the United States, is indicated by preliminary government estimates of the 1925 clip. Comparative figures follow : 1925* 1924 1919-1923 A v era g e (pounds) (pounds) (pounds) T w e lft h D i s t r i c t .................... 87,695,000 U n it e d S ta te s ........................ 2 4 9 ,885 ,00 0 84,021,000 238 ,503 ,00 0 Agricultural marketing trends, as indicated by comparative figures of the movement of cer tain of the district’s important crops, figures of market receipts of livestock, and of cold storage holdings of butter and eggs, are shown in Table “ A ,” page 59. Industrial Activity Industrial activity increased seasonally dur ing July and, as in the previous month, was above the level of a year ago. Volum e of indus trial employment in all states of the district was reported as being larger during July, 1925, than during July, 1924. Increased employment as compared with June, 1925, accompanied ex panding operations in seasonal industries, par ticularly in California. No important wage changes have been made during the past three months. Employment statistics for California and Oregon are presented in Table “ B.” Value of building permits issued in 20 prin cipal cities of this district during July, 1925, (B) Employment— - C a lifo r n ia N o . of - E m ployees N o. July, June, Firmis 1925 1925 °f -O r e g o n N o . of • E m ployees June, July, 1925 1925 159,750 (8 .8 ) 146,798 104 19,300 (-0 .0 5 ) 19,309 8,168 (4 .9 ) 7,785 4 278 ( 0 .7 ) 276 26,394 ( — 2 .2 ) 2,304 14 ( 1 .0 ) 26,974 47 15,560 2,282 4 15,256 ( — 2 .0 ) 874 (2 1 .1 ) A ll In d u s t r ie s ...........674 S to n e , C la y an d G lass P r o d u c t s . 47 L u m b e r an d W o o d M a n u fa c tu r e s . . 108 T e x t i l e s .................... N o. of Firm s 722 C lo th in g , M illin e r y a n d L a u n d e r in g . 59 6,405 ( 1 .5 ) 6,308 8 516 (3 .8 ) 497 F o o d , B ev era ges and T o b a c c o . .. 143 39,623 (4 2 .1 ) 27,890 33 1,924 ( 6 .1 ) 1,813 W a t e r , L ig h t and P o w e r . . . . M is c e lla n e o u s B U I L D I N G P E R M I T S I N 20 C I T I E S Per Cent Increase or Decrease (— ) J u ly . . . . June M ay . . . . A p r il . . . M arch . . F e b ru a r y . J a n u a ry . — — — — M o n th s in 1925 com pared with sam e M o n th s in -1 9 2 4 M on th ly Y e a r-to -d a te N o. V a lu e N o. V a lu e 2.6 7.5 — 3.0 10.6 8.4 11.2 38.6 — 3.8 0.9 21.7 6.7 — 5.8 2.3 20.4 3.3 — 7.3 2.5 2.2 — 9.0 — 2.3 18.0 — 4.5 — 4.9 - - 1 2 .7 7.1 — 5.3 — 7.1 — 5.3 M o n th in 1925 com pared w ith p recedin g M o n th N o. V a lu e — 2.0 — 15.1 — 2.2 0 .6 — 6.6 — 8.6 3.4 — 8.6 23.2 32.0 — 7.2 3.8 21.2 — 0.05 The United States Bureau of Labor Statis tics’ index number of building materials prices stood at 170 for July, 1925, compared with 171 for June, 1925, and 169 for July, 1924. The Aberthaw index of the total cost (including labor and materials) of building a reinforced concrete building was 194 (1914 average=100) on August 1, 1925, the same figure as was re ported on July 1, 1925. This is the lowest point reached by this index since February, 1923, when it stood at 193. A year ago it stood at 196, and the peak (208) of the years since 1920, was reached on June 1, 1923. Lumber production at reporting mills of four associations in the district was 6.4 per cent smaller in volume during July, than during June, the decrease being the result, chiefly, of the customary curtailment of lumbering opera tions during the first two weeks of July. Out put of reporting mills was smaller than either sales or shipments, which also decreased slightly during July, and unfilled orders were larger, and stocks at producing centers smaller, at the close of the month than at its beginning. A ctivity in the industry generally was greater, by approximately 25 per cent, in July, 1925, than in July, 1924. L U M B E R A C T IV IT Y * July, June, July, ✓—F irst Seven M on th s—* 1925 1925 1924 1925 1924 (board feet) (board feet) (board feet) (board feet) 9,213 ( 5 .1 ) 65,466 ( 1 .5 ) 2,177 13 ( — 5 .9 ) 4 8,770 64,476 2,313 8 452 (2 .5 ) 441 * I n c lu d e s th e f o llo w in g in d u s t r ie s : m eta ls, m a ch in e ry a n d c o n v e y a n ce s ; le a th e r a n d r u b b e r g o o d s ; ch e m ica ls , o ils and p a in t s ; p r in tin g an d p a p e r g o o d s . F ig u r e s in p a ren th eses r e p re se n t p e r c e n ta g e ch a n g e s fr o m Ju n e. was 7.5 per cent larger than the value of such permits issued during July, 1924, and exceeded by 3.8 per cent the previous record figures for July reported in 1923. The July, 1925, figures were 15.1 per cent smaller than similar figures for June, 1925. The normal seasonal decrease from June to July has been estimated to be ap proximately 2 per cent. 80,949,000 230 ,983,000 * P r e lim in a r y e stim a te . Industries August, 1925 M O N TH LY REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS P r o d u c t io n . . . . 681,238 S h i p m e n t s ____ 690,824 O rd e rs ............... 695,672 U n fille d O rd e rs 449,825 N o . o f M ills R e p o r t in g . . 177 728,185 709,928 704,322 433,153 176 537,297 545 ,274 570,986 358,851 182 4,509,586 4,590,486 4,559,418 18 0 t (board feet) 4,343,477 4,326,155 4 ,132,058 195Ÿ * A s re p o rte d b y fo u r a s s o cia tio n s , 000 o m itte d e x c e p t in ca se o f n u m b e r o f m ills re p o rtin g . t A v e r a g e o f first sev en m o n th s. National production of copper continued to decline in volume during July, 1925, but output of silver and zinc was larger than in June, 1925. August, 1925 Output of non-ferrous metals was generally larger in July, 1925, than in July, 1924. N O N -F E R R O U S M E T A L S —N ational P rodu ction July, 1925 C o p p e r ( lb s .) (m in e p r o d u c t io n ) ............................... S ilv e r ( o z .) (c o m m e r c ia l b a r s ) ...................................... Z in c ( t o n s ) ( s l a b ) .............. 135,296,000 June, 1925 July, 1924 140,644,000 129,486,000 5,328,000 45,920 4,492,351 42,913 5,831,000 47,583 cent during the month, whereas the five-year average figures of flour stocks show an increase of 8.8 per cent for July. Millers’ holdings of wheat increased by 1.7 per cent during July, but at 756,254 bushels on July 31, 1925, were only 52.3 per cent as large as the five-year aver age figure for that date. F L O U R M IL L IN G * F ig u r e s fo r lead are n o t av ailable. Average daily production of petroleum in California increased by 2.4 per cent during July, 1925, as compared with June, 1925, and was 18.2 per cent larger than estimated average daily consumption, which declined by 1.9 per cent. Increase in stored stocks of petroleum continued, the total of 114,113,419 barrels on July 31, 1925, being another new monthly record. P E T R O L E U M - C a liforn ia Indicated A v era ge D aily A v era ge C on su m ption D aily P rodu ction (Shipm ents) (barrels) J u ly , Jun e, S e p t., J u ly , 1925. 1925. 1923* 1924. . . . . 61 FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT SAN FRANCISCO 658,421 642,938 858 ,750 621,766 (barrels) N e w W e lls D aily P ro d u c tion Stored S to ck s at End of M on th N u m ber O pened (barrels) (barrels) 114,113,419 110,966,801 $ 9 5 ,0 3 0 ,7 7 7 t 556,918 567,714 $ $ * P e a k o f p r o d u c t io n , fO c to b e r , fig u re s n o t a v a ila b le . 1924, 102 119 93 137 s to c k s . 88,941 73,150 139,960 55,975 O u tp u t ( b b l s . ) . . . S tock st F lo u r ( b b l s .) .. . W h ea t (b u .).. . July, 1925 June, 1925 275,634 276,313 462,326 321,221 756,254 361,597 743,885 403,092 1,803,093 * A s r e p o r te d b y 16 c o m p a n ie s . in g m o n th . $1921-1925. J u ly ,1924 F iv e -Y e a r A vera ge July, 1920-1924 376,081$ 489,890 1,446,708 f A s o f the first d a y o f th e f o ll o w Seasonal activity in commercial fruit can ning and packing continued during July and the first part of August. Available information concerning canners’ operations tends to con firm earlier estimates that the 1925 canned fruit pack will be larger in California, and smaller in Oregon and W ashington than one year ago. Prices of important canning fruits were ad vanced during July, as future sales of the year’s pack, in both foreign and domestic markets, developed in large volume. $ C o m p a r a b le General Business and Trade During July, the flour milling industry of the district continued to operate at the low levels of the first half of the year, but an increased de mand for milling products was reported and flour stocks of millers were reduced. Produc tion of 16 reporting milling companies, at 275,634 barrels, was 0.2 per cent and 40.4 per cent smaller than in June, 1925, and July, 1924, re spectively, and 26.7 per cent smaller than the five-year average output for July. The slight decrease in production during July of this year compares with a five-year average increase of 5.4 per cent from June to July. Stocks of flour held by reporting millers decreased 11.2 per Improvement in business and trade first noted during June continued during July, and general business activity during the latter month was near the highest levels of the year. This bank’s index of bank debits, an approxi mate measure of business activity in the dis1NDEX NUMBERS (C) Building Permits— N o. B e r k e le y ................. B o is e ....................... F r e s n o ..................... L o n g B e a c h .......... L o s A n g e l e s ......... O a k la n d ................. O g d e n ...................... P a sa d e n a ............... P h o e n ix ................... P o r t la n d ................. R e n o ........................ S a c r a m e n to ........... S alt L a k e C ity . . . S an D i e g o .............. S an F r a n c is c o . . . S an J o s e ................. Sea ttle ..................... S p o k a n e ................. S t o c k t o n ................. T a c o m a ................... . . .. .. .. July, 1924 V a lu e 918 87 1,037 198 90 339 321 64 83 363 3,552 983 40 272 86 1,243 20 252 138 522 776 86 920 200 91 319 $ 1,158,918 29,204 96,490 1,419,968 11,599,782 3,350,532 161,000 871,465 125,868 2,048,145 33,325 609,405 646,048 879,080 3,988,466 547,560 2,061,110 198,350 526,515 492,343 10,602 $33,155,732 10,331 $30,843,574 1,137 $ N o. 848,193 38,236 112,342 692,071 11,298,896 4,268,075 103,150 734,918 204,357 2,295,390 176,497 680,928 503,430 1,338,354 5,755,745 177,400 2,478,930 414,715 284,390 749,715 219 118 D is t r ic t ............... . . 396 60 94 307 3,480 1,101 38 210 July, 1925 V a lu e B ank D e b its — T w elfth D istrict Index for 20 principal cities, figures for Phoenix, Arizona, not included, (1919 monthly a v e ra g e = 1 0 0 ). Latest figures, July, with adjustment, 1 47 ; without adjustment, 142. trict, advanced from 140 (1919 monthly average=100) in June to 147 in July, due allow ance being made for normal seasonal variation in the actual figures as reported by banks in 20 principal financial and business centers. The July figure, only excepting the figure for Febru ary, 1925 (149), was the highest recorded since 62 August, 1925 M O N TH LY REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS January, 1919, the earliest month for which such figures are available. A year ago the in dex stood at 131. Value of trade at retail, as indicated by in dexes of sales of 32 department stores in seven principal cities of the district, declined 8.8 per cent during July as compared with June. The decrease was less than the normal seasonal de crease from June to July, estimated at 10.7 per cent, and the index, when adjusted for seasonal variations, advanced from 147 in June, 1925, to 150 in July, 1925. The latter figure is the highest reported since April, 1925, when the volume of W holesale trade during July was more active than a year ago. Value of sales of 192 firms in eleven lines of business regularly reporting to this bank was 15.9 per cent larger during July, 1925, than during July, 1924, nine of the eleven lines showing increases over the year period. Increase of 15.9 per cent for July compares with annual increases of 13.8 per cent in June, 5.2 per cent in May, less than 2 per cent in April and March, and decreases in February and January of this year. W H OLESALE TRAD E INDEX NUMBERS N o . of Firm s A g r ic u ltu r a l I m p le m e n t s ., 20 A u t o m o b ile S u p p lie s 18 22 A u t o m o b ile T i r e s ............... 6 D r y G o o d s ............................ 16 E le c t r ic a l S u p p lie s .......... 10 18 . 26 20 12 S ta tio n e r y ............................. 24 P ercentage increase or decrease (— ) t------------ in V alu e o f S a le s ------------- \ July, 1925 J u ly ,1925 June, 1925 com pared com pared com pared w ith with w ith J u l y ,1924 June, 1925 June, 1924 99.0 13.5 60.7 8.8 7.7 2.2 76.3 8.4 87.8 — 3.1 4.3 13.8 3.4 10.6 5.4 8.0 — 5.8 5.8 8.9 6.6 — 0.5 — 0.6 — 1.0 — 4.6 9.5 — 3.7 4.6 7.2 — 9.9 6.7 1.3 1.0 5.8 On July 31,1925, savings deposits at 70 banks in seven principal cities of this district were 0.9 per cent smaller than on June 30, 1925, a partly seasonal movement, and 11.4 per cent larger than on July 31, 1924. S A V IN G S D E P O S IT S D epartm ent Store S a le s — T w elfth D istrict Index of 32 Stores in 7 cities (1919 monthly ave ra ffe = 10 0 ). Latest figures, July, with adjustment, 1 5 0 ; without adjustment, 124. Easter sales was unusually heavy. In July, 1924, the adjusted index stood at 142. The rate of stock turnover at reporting stores has been more rapid, and collections have been more readily made during 1925 than during 1924. D E P A R T M E N T S T O R E S A L E S - I n d e x N u m bers (1919 M onthly A v e r a g e = 1 0 0 ) W ith ou t Seasonal A d ju stm en t J u ly , J u ly , J u ly , J u ly , J u ly , J u ly , M arch, A p r il, M ay, Ju n e, J u ly , 1919. 1920. 1921. 1922. 1923. 1924. 1925. 1925. 1925. 1925. 1925. L os A n g e le s O ak land . . . . . . . . . . . 82 109 94 90 101 106 129 133 143 143 117 90 121 119 129 172 173 215 218 203 194 188 San F ra n c is c o Salt L a ke C ity Seattle 81 97 85 87 101 102 132 135 148 120 104 80 97 82 78 89 88 98 110 124 106 85 92 93 76 83 86 86 95 98 102 98 91 82 101 81 77 85 75 77 92 85 85 77 85 104 93 97 117 117 143 147 149 136 124 105 125 109 112 131 132 133 141 135 143 134 100 122 102 97 111 110 107 117 108 103 106 102 102 83 92 95 95 102 104 104 98 100 106 130 105 99 109 97 91 95 86 84 99 104 127 113 118 141 142 147 152 145 147 150 Spo kane D is trict* W ith Seasonal A d ju s tm e n t! J u ly , J u ly, J u ly , J u ly , J u ly , J u ly , M arch , A p r il, M ay, Ju n e, J u ly , 1919. 1920. 1921. 1922. 1923. 1924. 1925. 1925. 1925. 1925. 1925. . . . . . . . . . . . 104 141 139 150 200 201 223 232 221 209 219 102 136 117 112 126 133 138 137 154 143 146 .......... T o ta l! June 30, 1925* $382,933 97,457 54,158 2 9,963 467,796 73,750 1 9,786 70 $1,115,638 $1,125,843 $ 1 ,0 0 1 ,030§ *000 o m itte d , f l n c l u d e s o n e b a n k m e r ly a b r a n c h o f an O a k la n d r e p o r t in g b a n k s has r e d u c e d a ffe c te d th e v a lu e o f r e p o r te d p o s e s . § R e v is e d . 11.4 — 0.9 in B e r k e le y w h ic h w a s f o r b a n k . J T h e c o n s o lid a tio n o f th e ir n u m b e r , b u t has n o t fig u re s f o r c o m p a r a tiv e p u r (D ) Bank Debits*— July, 1925 . .$ 135,421 21,133 35,927 21,322 173,271 9,320 34,178 64,375 57,446 966,942 27,336 198,474 52,479 24,654 41,700 10,763 ............ , .$2,7 66,952 $2,451,200 L o n g B ea ch L o s A n g e le s . . .. .. .... . S a c r a m e n to . . S alt L a k e C ity San D ie g o . . . San F r a n c is c o . . S an J o s e . . . . .. T o ta l *000 omitted. 18,537 13,949 33,788 47,265 July, 1924 17,096 13,191 30,247 47,479 703,307 124,445 21,640 29,559 18,865 153,459 7,971 39,949 60,916 53,207 808,352 24,087 182,323 46,562 22,377 38,057 8,111 P a sa d e n a *32 stores. f N o a d ju stm e n t has b e e n m a d e f o r b u s in e s s d a y s lo s t du e t o S a tu r d a y c lo s in g o f s to r e s d u r in g th e su m m e r m o n th s . T h e J u ly , 1925, fig u re f o r S an F r a n c is c o w o u ld h ave s h o w n little ch a n g e fr o m J u n e , 1925, h a d s u c h an a d ju s tm e n t b e e n m a d e . N u m ber July of 31, B anks 1925* L o s A n g e le s . . 13 $375,534 98,338 O a k la n d ! . . . . 7 P o r tla n d J . . . . 8 53,167 S alt L a k e C ity 8 30,281 S an F r a n c is c o . 14 464,807 74,294 19,217 Per C en t increase or d ecrease ( —) July 31,1925 com pared w ith July July June 31, 31. 30, 1924* 1924 1925 $330,076§ 13.8 — 1.9 9 0 ,1 68§ 9.1 0.9 51,692 2.9 — 1.8 28,500 6.2 1.1 415,005 12.0 — 0.6 66,479 11.8 0.7 1 9,110§ 0.6 — 2.9 778,672 $ Seven M on th s 1925 1924 $ 124,542 78,593 210,162 384,818 5,345,872 869,239 158,361 239,649 145,382 1,105,216 56,493 312,013 435,938 345,253 5,650,680 147,411 1,253,162 328,423 160,315 285,253 65,780 $17,702,555 $ 127,345 80,456 203 ,444 332,808 5,498,142 951,160 158,356 253,468 161,920 1,104,450 58,188 259,543 468,609 376,363 6,483,982 166,209 1,356,621 350,254 172,153 304,138 80,088 $ 18 ,947 ,69 7 August, 1925 Prices The general price level moved upward during July. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ whole sale price index for the month stood at 160, compared with 157 in June, 155 in May, the 1925 low point, and 161 in February, the 1925 high point. The index figure was 8.8 per cent higher in July, 1925, than in July, 1924. The price level of the farm products group, one of the constituent groups of this index, stood at 162 for July, 1925, or two points (1.3 per cent) above the level of all groups combined. This is the first time since March, 1920, that the index number of the farm products group has been higher than the general index number. The group index stood at 155 in June, 1925, and 141 in July, 1924. Relative purchasing power of farm products in terms of non-agricultural commodities has been estimated at 90 per cent of average purchasing power during the fiveyear period August, 1909-July, 1914, in each of the past four months, and is now 8.4 per cent higher than a year ago. In this district particular significance at taches to the improvement in livestock prices during the present year. Beef cattle prices are now at highest levels since 1920. H og prices, although slightly below the 1925 high point reached in March, are more than 40 per cent higher than they were a year ago. The accom panying table summarizes movement of weekly average prices of beef cattle, hogs, and lambs at Chicago during the post-war period. (---------------------- W e e k ly A v era ge P rices*-----------------------\ (Per hundred pounds) A u g . 8, 1925 1925 H igh 1925 L ow C a ttle (N a tiv e b e e f ), C h ic a g o $12.50 $12.50 $9.05 8-8-25 2-14-25 $14.05 $10.20 3-21-25 1-10-25 L a m b s, C h ic a g o . $14.90 $18.30 $12.65 ______ 1-24-25 5-23-25 H ogs, 63 FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT SAN FRANCISCO C h ic a g o .. $13.40 * D a te s in d ica te e n d o f w e e k p e r io d s . A u g . 9, 1924 $9.90 „ PostW ar H ig h „ P ostW ar Low $17.30 $6.40 8-9-19 12-24-21 $22.20 $6.65 7-19-19 6-16-23 $13.30 $20.80 $8.10 1-24-20 9-3-21 $9.50 The advance in w ool prices begun during the last half of May, continued during June and July, but was checked, at least temporarily, during the first weeks of August. The average of 98 w ool quotations on the Boston market on specified dates fo llo w s : C en ts per pound W e e k E n ded (W e e k ly Averages) A u g u s t 26, 1921 (p o s t -w a r l o w ) ................. D e c e m b e r 26, 1924 (1 9 2 4 h i g h ) ................... J u ly 18, 1924 (19 2 4 l o w ) .................................. J a n u a ry 23, 1 9 2 5 .................................................. M a y 29, 1925 ....................................................... J u ly 31, 1925 ......................................................... A u g u s t 7, 19 2 5 ....................................................... A u g u s t 14, 1925 ................................................... 39.38 102.04 73.93 103.08 73.06 80.41 79.65 79.46 On August 13th, September contract wheat sold at Chicago for $1.64-$1.66^4 per bushel, a price nearly equal to that of June 5th ($1.63^$1.67y2 per bushel), the peak thus far in 1925. On August 15, 1924, September contract wheat was quoted at $1.27}4-$1.32^2 per bushel. Q uo tations for cash shipping barley at San Fran cisco ranged from $1.75 to $1.90 per cental ($0.84 to $0.91 per bushel) during the period from July 20 to August 11, 1925, as com pared with quotations ranging from $1.75 to $1.85 per cental ($0.84 to $0.89 per bushel) a month earlier. A year ago, during the period from July 24 to August 20, 1924, the abnormally small 1924 crop was selling at $2.42^-$2.50 per cental ($1.16 to $1.20 per bushel). The growers’ association controlling a large proportion of the California prune crop an nounced opening prices for 1925 crop prunes on August 3rd. Forty-fifty grade prunes in 25pound boxes were quoted at 9 cents per pound, which compares with previous opening prices for the same grade as fo llo w s: 1924, 10^2 cents; 1923, 9y2-9^4 cents; 1922, 8 j4 -8 y i cents. (E) Commodity Prices— C om m od ity W h o le s a le P r ic e s ( U . S. B u re a u o f L a b o r ) 1913— 1 0 0 ...................................... P u r c h a sin g P o w e r o f F a rm P r o d u c t s ( U . S. D e p a r tm e n t o f A g r ic u lt u r e ) * C a ttle (N a t iv e B e e f ) .W e e k l y a v e ra g e p r ic e at C h ic a g o .................................... H o g s .............................. .W e e k ly a v e r a g e p r ic e at C h ic a g o .................................... .W e e k ly a v e r a g e p r ic e at C h ic a g o .................................... .C h ic a g o c o n t r a c t p r ice fo r S e p te m b e r w h e a t ............... C o t t o n ........................... .M id d lin g U p la n d s — W e e k ly r a n g e o f s p o t q u o ta tio n s at N e w O r le a n s .......................................................... W o o l .............................. .A v e r a g e o f 98 q u o ta tio n s at B o s t o n ............................... S u g a r ............................. . B e e t G ra n u la te d f. o. b . S an F r a n c i s c o ........................ D rie d A p r i c o t s ........... .C h o ic e in 25-lb. b o x e s , f. o . b . C a lifo r n ia ................... P ru n e s ........................... .S iz e 4 0 /5 0 in 2 5-lb. b o x e s , f. o. b. C a lifo r n ia ............ R a i s i n s ........................... .L o o s e M u s c a te l in 25-lb . b o x e s , f. o . b . C a lifo rn ia . C o p p e r .......................... .E le c t r o ly t ic , m o n th ly a v e r a g e at N e w Y o r k .............. L e a d ............................... .M o n t h ly a v e ra g e at N e w Y o r k ......................................... S i l v e r ............................. .M o n th ly a v e ra g e at N e w Y o r k ......................................... Z i n c ................................. .M o n th ly a v e ra g e at St. L o u is ........................................... P e t r o l e u m ................... .C a lifo r n ia , 3 5 ° and a b o v e ..................................................... L u m b e r ( S o f t w o o d ) .. W e e k l y I n d e x , U . S .$ ............................................................ U nit 100 lb s. 1G0 lb s. 100 lb s. bu , lb . lb . lb . lb . lb . ib . lb . lb . oz. lb. b b l. A u gust 7 , 1925 160 90 $12.50 13.40 14.90 1 .5 9 5 4 - 1 .6 6 ^ 2 3 .6 5 -2 4 .2 5 0 79.650 5.600 .1 9 ¿ 4 - .2 0 f .0 9 - .0 9 ^ t .09 13.9460 8.1510 69.4420 7.2060 1.85 29.95 O n e M on th A g o 157 90 $11.75 13.20 15.85 1 .3 8 ^ -1 .4 1 ^ O ne Y ear A go 147 83 $10.05 9.15 13.35 1 .3 0 ^ - 1 .3 3 2 2 .9 0 -2 4 .1 5 0 79.180 5.700 .1 6 ^ -.1 6 ^ f .0 8 5 4 -.0 8 2 4 .0 9*A 13.3990 8.3210 69.1060 6.9900 1.85 2 9 .4 2 -3 0 .0 0 0 77.580 6.750 .15—.15 .1 0 ^ -1 0 ^ N o t Q u oted 12.3900 7.1170 67.1590 5.8980 1.40 29.82 29.73 * R a tio o f fa rm p r ice s (A u g u s t , 190 9-J u ly, 1 9 1 4 = 1 0 0 ) to w h o le s a le p r ice s o f n o n -a g r ic u ltu r a l c o m m o d itie s (1 9 1 0 -1 9 1 4 = 1 0 0 ). f l 9 2 5 c r o p p r ice s . $ A s p u b lis h e d b y th e “ L u m b e r M a n u fa c tu r e r an d D e a le r .” 64 August, 1925 M O N TH LY REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS Price trends of the important non-ferrous metals, including copper, lead, silver, and zinc, are shown in the follow ing ta ble: M E T A L P R I C E S — M on th ly A v era ges COPPER N ew Y ork LEAD N ew Y ork (cents per lb.) (cents per lb.) 1924. J u ly , 12.390 A u g ., 13.221 S e p t., 12.917 O c t ., 1924. 12.933 N o v ., 13.635 D e c ., 14.260 Jan ., 14.709 F e b ., 192S. 14.463 M a r., 14.004 A p r ., 13.252 M ay, 13.347 Ju n e, 13.399 J u ly , 13.946 A u g . 14, 1 4 3 ^ -1 4 ^ 1909-1913 A v e r a g e . , 13.941 7.117 7.827 8.000 8.235 8.689 9.207 10.169 9.428 8.914 8.005 7.985 8.321 8.151 9 .2 5 -1 0 .1 2 4.396 S IL V E R N ew Y ork Z IN C St. L ou is (cents per o z .) (cents per lb.) 67.159 68.519 69.350 70.827 69.299 68.096 68.447 68.472 67.808 66.899 67.580 69.106 69.442 697/8 55.791 5.898 6.175 6.181 6.324 6.796 7.374 7.738 7.480 7.319 6.985 6.951 6.990 7.206 7 .5 7 -7 .6 0 5.727 There was a slight increase in softwood lum ber prices during July, according to the index of the “ Lumber Manufacturer and Dealer,” as shown in Table “ E.” Banking and Credit Situation $9,000,000 (0.8 per cent) smaller than on July 8th. Investment holdings of the banks declined slightly (1.1 per cent) during the four weeks ending August 5, 1925. R E P O R T I N G M E M B E R B A N K S — T w e lfth D istrict* (Figures are in millions of dollars, numbers in parentheses indicating percentage changes.) C o n d itio n C h an ge A u g . 5, from O n e 1925 M o n th A g o T o t a l L o a n s .......... 1,105 — 9 ( 0 .8 ) C o m m e r c ia l L o a n s 854 — 10 ( 1 .1 ) 449 — 5 ( 1 .1 ) I n v e s t m e n t s .......... D e m a n d D e p o s it s . 754 — 13 ( 1.8) T o t a l D e p o s it s . . . 1,542 — 18 ( 1 .2 ) B o r r o w in g s fr o m F e d e ra l R e s e r v e B a n k .................. 32 + 5 (1 9 .2 ) C h an g e from Six M o n th s A g o +46 +20 +10 — 45 +34 ( ( ( ( ( 4 .4 ) 2 .3 ) 2 .2 ) 5 .7 ) 2 .2 ) + 2 5 (3 6 6 .7 ) C h an ge from O n e Y ear A go +103 + 60 + 89 + 11 +169 + ( ( ( ( ( 1 0 .3 ) 7 .5 ) 2 4 .8 ) 1.4) 12.2) 30 (1 ,3 1 7 .2 ) * L a te s t fig u re s are n o t s t r ic t ly c o m p a r a b le w ith th o s e o f ea r lie r dates b e c a u s e th e n u m b e r o f r e p o r t in g m e m b e r b a n k s w as re d u c e d fr o m 68 to 67 o n A u g u s t 1, 1925. Statements of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco have shown none but seasonal changes during recent weeks. Total discounts and holdings of acceptances purchased in the M IL L IO N S OF DOLLARS The volume o f credit extended by reporting member banks of the district during July was the largest ever recorded, but borrowings from the Federal Reserve Bank continued relatively small in amount. Total loans of reporting member banks reached record levels ($1,116,000,000) o n ju ly 15, 1925, and figures of total loans and investments, M IL L IO N S O F D O L L A R S R e se rv e B ank C r e d it — T w elfth D istrict Figures for Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, as of last W ednesday of each month. Latest figures, July 29. open market increased by $4,000,000 (10.2 per cent) and $1,000,000 (8.2 per cent), respec tively, during the four weeks ending August 12, 1925. Holdings of United States securities were practically unchanged during the month, and total earning assets, at $105,000,000 on August 12, 1925, were $5,000,000 (5.2 per cent) larger than on July 15, 1925. F E D E R A L R E SE R V E B A N K O F SA N F R A N C IS C O (Figures are in millions of dollars, numbers in parentheses indicating percentage changes.) C on dition A u g . 12, 1925 M e m b e r B a n k C r e d it — T w elfth D istrict Figures for 68 member banks in leading cities, as of last W ednesday of each month. Latest figures, July 29. at $1,568,000,000 on the same date, were also larger than ever before. Increase in total loans was the result of increases in loans secured by stocks and bonds, commercial loans having de clined steadily since July 8, 1925. Since July 15th, volume of total loans has declined and, at $1,105,000,000 on August 5, 1925, they were T o t a l E a r n in g A s s e t s . . . . . U n ite d S ta te s S e c u r it ie s . P u rc h a s e d A c c e p t a n c e s . T o t a l R e s e r v e s .................... . T o t a l D e p o s it s .................... . F e d e ra l R e s e r v e N o te C ir c u la t io n ....................... . C h ange from O n e M o n th Ago C h an ge from One Y ear Ago 105 42 44 19 270 164 + 5 ( 5 .2 ) + 4 (1 0 .2 ) 0 + 1 ( 8 .2 ) — 9 ( 3 .1 ) — 2 ( 1.6) +29 +23 — 12 + 18 — 26 + 8 198 — 3 ( 1 .4 ) — 3 7 .6 ) ( ( 1 18 .9) 2 2 .2 ) ( (1 ,3 9 3 .6 ) 8 .8 ) ( 4 .6 ) ( 5 ( 2 .4 ) Interest rates charged customers by banks in principal financial centers were unchanged as compared with preceding months.
@FedFRASER