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MONTHLY REVIEW TWELFTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT AUGUST 1955 Fe d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k S a n Fr a n c is c o of REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS h e le v e l T a n d o f th e th e fr o m h a lf . b eco m e b u s in e s s n a tio n y e a r fir s t o u s o f th e th e A s se c to r s o f th e g r e a tly . in e c o n o m y , o u tlo o k g o o d s a n d th e th e h ig h h a s d if f u s e d T w e lfth in re co r d e x p a n s io n m o r e th e e a r ly a n d h a s s e r v ic e s a n d h a v e e s ta b lis h e d fe a rs a n d o f a se c o n d in th e e c o r e s u lt e x p e n d it u r e s c o n tin u e d to r is e . S o fa r a s Total nonagricultural employment reaches another new high T h e in h a s h a v e d im in is h e d c o n fid e n c e a s a h a lf th r o u g h o u t th e v a r i e a r lie r c o n su m e r fir m e d D is tr ic t se c o n d c o n tin u e d o v e r -a ll b u s in e s s a c t iv it y B u s in e s s n o m ic in fu rth e r a lr e a d y th e p r o g r e s s iv e ly h a lf le t d o w n a c t iv it y r o se o n ca n n u m b e r a c tiv itie s s e a s o n a lly th e d e te r m in e d , b u y in g in te n tio n s a n d in v e s tm e n t fo r th e n ea r J u n e fu tu r e o v e r -a ll a p p ea r le v e ls q u ite o f fa v o r a b le a c tiv ity fr o m fo r M a y to 1 9 5 4 . p la n ts e m p lo y e d in c r e a s e d fa r m a a n d J u n e p o in t 4 In c r e a se d fo r in n o n a g r ic u ltu r a l so m e w h a t J u n e . T h e a c c o u n te d m o n th -to -m o n th a t a sh a re la r g e g a in s th a n b ro u g h t p e rc en t a h ea d a c t iv it y y e a r -p e r io d m o r e in c r e a se o f th e D is tr ic t m a n u in o f b o th o v e r -a ll th e n o n e m p lo y m e n t. T h e r e c o r d v o lu m e o f c o n s tr u c tio n p u tin th e fir s t h a lf o f th e y e a r is r e fle c te d in a g a in p la n s n e a r ly 8 p e r c e n t in c o n s tr u c tio n e m p lo y m e n t in J u n e a m o d a d d itio n a l co m p a r ed in w o r k e r s D is tr ic t fr o m fa c tu r in g o f g a in s o f th e le v e l o f e m p lo y m e n t to to ta l fo r in -p la c e b e in c u rr en t w ith a y e a r a g o . A lth o u g h th e r e w a s reco rd e r a te te n d e n c y in M a y a n d J u n e fo r th e v a lu e o f n e w le v e ls . b u ild in g In th e s o n a lly n a tio n , b o th a d ju ste d p r o d u c tio n c o n tin u e d th e so m e e x te n t te r e d w o r k J u n e , in la r g e r tiv ity in o th e r lin e s , e s p e c ia lly T o ta l J u n e J u ly , u s u a lly b e in g a p e r io d o cc u r s, a n d 3 .3 th e it in a th e m illio n r e c o v e r y in se a h ile fr o m to sc a t little if a n y a in le v e l a b o u t u n e m p lo y e d in ra te. J u ly la s t M in in g n e ss a c t iv it y J u ly a n d a p p e a rs e a r ly in ch a n g e e m p lo y m e n t , fe ll lo w e r th a n ec o n o m y e le m e n t. in in d ic a te d A u g u st. a c t iv it y in c le m e n t m a y w e a th e r p ea r ta in . a r e b o u n d in P r o s p e c tiv e p lo y e r s to sta te b e h a v e lin e s o f b u s in e s s a n d A la te b y y ea r . d e v e lo p m e n ts a g r ic u ltu r a l e x p e c te d . a d v e r s e ly o u tp u t a n d d em a n d in h a v e le d to s a le s a n d o th e r m e a su r e s sh o w str e n g th . to o r k d u r in g h a r v e st h a s u su a l fo r sto p p a g e s a ffe c te d la b o r a s c o n tin u e d o f w o r k m a n y e x c e p u n d er w a y m o n th s to it is q u a n tita t iv e ly co m e. s m a ll in a t a n d w o r k a w h e r e s tr ik e la te r a t A u g u st. th e it r e p r e se n ts m a jo r o n , s h a r p ly e a r ly in h a s h a d a s ig n ific a n t im p a c t u p o n a re a s c u r t a ile d T h e s m a ll tr a n s p o r ta tio n , a m a jo r D is tr ic t co p p er m in in g d e c lin e a c t iv in th e c o m m u n ic a t io n , a n d p u b lic u t ilit ie s in d u s t r ia l g r o u p , th e o n ly m a j o r in d u s tr ia l c a te g o r y to r e g iste r fr o m M a y a d e c lin e fr o m M a y to J u n e , s to p p a g e in th e tr u c k in g in d u s tr y 1 9 to J u n e 12. o f in is o th e r a lm o s t c e r G r o w th m e n ts in o u tp u t c o n tin u e s to o f b e D is t r ic t m a n u fa c t u r in g a d o m in a n t fo r c e in e s ta b lis h th e cu rr en t Also in This Issue b y e m Construction Activity in the Nation and the Twelfth District in 1955 . . Canning Review and Prospects . . . p r o p o r tio n s a r e d e v e lo p m e n ts u n e m p lo y m e n t. e c o n o m ic Manufacturing continues to gain despite declines in some industrial lines a n d in d ic a te s th a t a d d i o f m o d e r a te d ro p c e r ta in re p o r te d th e n e x t se v e r a l m o n th s. T h e s e v o lu m e fo r e a r lie r in f lu e n c e s d is a p e m p lo y m e n t e m p lo y m e n t a g e n c ie s e x p e c te d tin u e d W a s th e s e d e p r e s s in g tio n a l n e t e m p lo y m e n t g a in s a th o se H o w e v e r , J u ly n u m b e r fr o m th e o v e r -a ll le v e l o f D is tr ic t b u s i le v e ls f o r J u n e a n d J u ly , a n d a s c r o p s r ip e n a s h a r p u p tu r n su ch o f m in e s , d is c u s s e d ity o ff th e to t a l o f n o n a g r ic u ltu r a l jo b s , h a s e x p a n d e d r e fle c ts la r g e ly th e w o r k h e ld c a n n in g a n d fo o d p r o c e s s in g a c t iv it y w e ll b e lo w in la r g e h ig h to fr o m ta p e r e m p lo y m e n t, a lth o u g h th a t la s te d F u r th e r e x p a n s io n le v e ls , th e a n d th is g r o w th th e to e m p lo y m e n t r e la tio n U n e m p lo y 1 m illio n h ig h k eep s h a r p ly e n tr a n t s in t o th e la b o r fo r c e w e r e s a tis fa c to r y w ill o f a c s ig n ific a n tly w h ic h tio n a lly d u r in g le v e ls d u r a b le c o n s u m e r g o o d s e x p a n d e d v e r y to W in d u s tr y im p r o v e d n o n s e a so n a l g a in J u ly J u ly . a u to m o b ile r e fle c ts d u r in g n e w a t e m p lo y m e n t in r e fle c te d e m p lo y m e n t a b so rb ed s u b s ta n tia lly in m e a su r e m e n t, r e fle c tin g th e g a in sto p p a g e s o u tp u t. to J u ly a n d u p w a r d a u th o r iz a tio n s a c t iv it y R e ta il h a v e c o n Supplement Pacific Coast Waterborne Foreign Trade, 1953 98 1 0 2 98 re co r d m e n t le v e ls o f b u s in e s s r o se fu r th e r M a y , b r in g in g a A ugust 1955 FEDERAL RESERVE BA N K OF SAN FRANCISCO y e a r a g o th e to th r o u g h o u t th e th e g a in , in d u s tr y w o o d s 6 fr o m p e r c e n t. d o m in a te d in c r e a se s . h o w e v e r , is A h ig h th e c o m p a r a b le A s h a s fo r fr o m b o th to a b y b een tr a n s p o r ta tio n th e la r g e th e lo w e r e m p lo y le v e l r e a c h e d in r is e a s in o f c a u se d ca se d u r a b le sh a re r e b o u n d le v e ls th e w e ll co p p er fir m s re p r e se n t e n c o m p a s s in g lu m b e r c is e ly th e o f th e th e y ea r. e ffe c t m e n t, th e U ta h , to e c o n o m ic A r iz o n a , b e o f to d em a n d s. d o m e s tic In la s t a s s e m b ly , z in c a ir c r a ft, a n d a b le lin e s g o o d s o u tp u t in m o n th s, m e ta ls , a n d h a v e lin e o f A th e in c r e a s e d jo b s sc a tte r e d r e s tr a in e d e m p lo y m e n t. w ith lo s s e s in a u to d e c lin e s o v e r -a ll c o n s id e r a b le in o th e r g a in in p o r tio n d u r is in th e s ig n ific a n t tiv ity in p e r io d n o te , ste m m e d a u to o f m e ta ls T h e cu r r e n t to a s s e m b ly , a n d a ir c r a ft g r o u p s, a g o y e a r a lth o u g h p e r io d s , h a s w e a k n e ss, c o n tin u e d e x p a n s io n , s h a r p ly it in c r e a s e d p r o d u c tio n , in d u s tr y . in A s th e a n d is a c o u tp u t is th e n o n d u r a b le s u b s ta n tia lly sh o w n h o w e v e r , s lo w n e s s in so m e a lm o s t a b o v e in d ic a te d e n tir e ly e a r lie r , m a n u co m p a r r e c e n t w e a k n e ss. D is tr ic t's c a n n in g th e p o in t b y p r o lo n g e d w in te r th e th e r e s u lt a n d p r e se r v u n u s u a lly o f w e a th e r 8 3 h a s p o r tio n s k e p t th e a n d e x p e c te d s h o u ld h a v e m o n th s a s e x p a n d e d to s e a s o n ’s re a ch h a v e a n d in a n d h a v e th e th e p r o c e s s in g to ta l b een th e o f u se 2 2 ,0 0 0 a s in lik e ly w o r k e r s o f t h e n a t i o n ’s O u tp u t e x te n t is o f le a d a n d n o n fe r r o u s s tr ik e - in d u c e d o re s z in c . s u p p ly le v e ls o f d em a n d , h a v e 3 6 T h e ce n ts d o m e s t ic p e r p o u n d c o p p e r p r ic e O n re a ch ed r is e n p r ic e to 4 3 to sh o r t fo r c e n ts th e h ig h e s t c o p p er p er in te r n a tio n a l m a r k e ts 4 5 c e n ts p e r p o u n d w a s p o u n d in in th e r e A u g u st. T h e d if fe r e n tia l b e tw e e n d o m e s t ic a n d in t e r n a tio n a l p r ic e s fo r th e m e ta l a ttr a c t h a s m a d e s u ffic ie n t it fo r e ig n d if fic u lt s u p p lie s fo r to d o m e s t ic m e e t u se r s th e ir to r e q u ir e m e n ts. Unemployment declines sharply a r e s u lt o f th e m o r e th a n se a so n a l r is e in D is tr ic t so m e in r e ce n t m o n th s, th e n u m b e r o f jo b s d e c lin e d p e r so n s in o th e r la b o r fo r c e u n a b le to fin d s u b s ta n tia lly fa c to r s g a in s sta g e . str e n g th o f fr o m M a y m e n t d e c r e a se d to J u n e . In th is o n e -m o n th p e r io d u n e m p lo y u lt im a te se a so n a l s ig n s s itu a tio n n o rm a l p r o b y p a ck . T h e s e th a n sh o w n e m p lo y m e n t b e lo w in d ic a te d sh a rp er cr o p s lin e s n o tic e a b le p u b lis h in g le v e l c u rr en t h o w e v e r , n o n d u r a b le P a r t ic u la r ly a n d o f th e le a d , c o m in g o th e r s iz e th e S o m e p r e e m p lo y N e v a d a o f c o p p e r , le a d , a n d r e fle c tin g o p e r a a sse ss la te in s u b n o r m a l te m p e r a tu r e s in s e a s o n a l e x p a n s io n b e lo w to b u s in e s s e x te n t, a ffe c te d . so m e la s t h a lf o f A u g u s t . th e a re a s a re to a o r g a n iz a tio n s s m e lt in g o u tp u t a n d th e le s s e r a m ix tu r e y e a r s. fr o m e m p lo y m e n t p a r ts o f th e D is tr ic t a n d s u p p ly p r ic e s , h ig h in r a is e d A s h a r v e s t o c c a s io n e d o n im p o r ta n c e . a ffe c te d c o n ta in a n d fin e d o v e r -a ll le v e l o f a c tiv ity a b le in g e c o n o m ic fr o m m e ta l p r o d u c ts. fa c tu r in g T h is o f a b y e a r lie r a g e s g a in s sh u t-d o w n to o f a n d a v a ila b le im p a c t u p o n a n d , co p p er C o p p e r y e t w e r e A u g u s t th e in d u s tr y . T h e s e ty p e s m illin g , n o t o p e r a tio n s e a r ly S ta te s a n d a la r g e p r o p o r tio n a ls o u s u a lly d u r a b le o f a n d in te g r a te d a re c o n s id e r a b le tin u e d fe w s m e lt in g J u ly m in in g , d a ta in th e U n it e d e x p a n d h ig h ly th e A lth o u g h a n d a n d in s tr ik e a g a in s t th e t h r e e m a j o r fir m s in D is tr ic t fu r n itu r e a n d m a c h in e r y m a n u fa c tu r e r s h a v e c o n th e m in in g c u r t a ile d tio n s . a 4 v e r se d if fic u ltie s e a r lie r in D is tr ic t s u b s ta n tia lly o f th e m ill b y Strike interrupts activity in copper mines and smelters in m o n th re ce n t c o n s id e r a b le d u e a c c o u n te d o p e r a t io n s w e a th e r a n d th e c u r r e n t u p s w in g , e m p lo y m e n t p la n ts jo b s fr o m to ta l g a in y e a r -p e r io d r e c e n t a c tiv ity . M a n u fa c tu r in g J u n e n e a r ly m a n u fa c t u r in g a s in in A ll a n d m a n -h o u r s. r e c e n t g a in s in p r in t in g a p p a r e l in d u s tr y . b y m o r e th a n 3 0 p e r c e n t b e lo w r a t io o f u n e m p lo y e d th a n th e to 11 le v e l la b o r o f 3 .2 4 .6 p er c e n t r a t io a p e r c e n t w a s in 4 .0 y e a r -a g o in J u n e , J u n e p e r c e n t in r a t io o f 5 .1 J u n e 3 .6 m o r e a g o . T h e sh o w n su b p e r c e n t in M a y w ith n a tio n a l o f th is w a s y e a r a ls o c o m p a r e s T h e a n d a h a s fr o m w h ic h 1 9 5 4 . J u n e fo r c e s ta n tia l im p r o v e m e n t, d e c lin in g to p e r c e n t y e a r a r a t io o f u n e m p lo y m e n t c o m p a r ed w ith p e r c e n t. CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY IN THE NATION AND THE TWELFTH DISTRICT IN 1955 h e T v ita l r o le w h ic h b u s in e s s th e flu c tu a tio n s c o n s tr u c tio n in in d u s tr y g e n e r a l a n d h a s p la y s in b een p la y in g in th e c u r r e n t e c o n o m ic c y c le in p a r tic u la r h a s b e e n ily o f e m p h a s iz e d a n d b u s in e s s in a g r e a t a n a ly s ts . In d ea l w r it in g b r ie f, th e se b y h e a v e c o n o m is ts a n a ly s e s lik e ly in g to o ff” b e m o r e th a n str o n g v ita lity in th e a ty p e s o f te n d e n c y c o n tin u e d a n d o f to sa g . str e n g th G o v e r n m e n t su p p o r t th a t c o n s tr u c tio n , th e th r o u g h A c o r o lla r y o f d e m a n d A m e r ic a n th e m ild e c o n o m y 1 9 5 5 . In th e h a s p ro c e e d e d a p a ce th e o p tim is m e x p r e sse d to in is lik e ly o b s e r v a t io n fo r p r o v id e d r e c e ss io n a th e fr o m to sh o w th a t th e b u s in e s s , r e ce n t “ ta p e r “optimistic” forecasts it o ff ic ia l m o r e 1 9 5 5 — th e th e n e w n a tio n h a s c o n s tr u c tio n o f a p p e a rs th a t fo r e c a sts is su ch c ia te d a in la r g e w h e n v e m b e r $ 1 9 c o n s tr u c tio n th e 1 4 th e b illio n d o lla r e v e r t i m e ; th a t to ta l is m e a su r e m id -1 9 5 3 th a n g r e a te st r e c o v e r y 1 9 5 5 , c o n s tr u c tio n w h e r e e a r lie r la r g e a n d e x p e r ie n c e d p o in t is r e s id e n tia l, fir s t h a lf o f th e o f in th e U n ite d S ta te s a g g r e g a te m a r k e t fo r e c o n o m y c o n s tr u c tio n th r o u g h e a r ly th e s p it e in d ic a te to t a le d a ll in Nation’s construction activity exceeds early E x p e n d itu r e s o n th a t w ith o u t a ju s tifie d te n d e n c ie s . e x p e r ie n c e d w o u ld s ix su ch o v e r th e a in c r e a s e w ith S ta te s e a r ly lik e e x c e e d th e th a t p e r io d o f o n ca n 1 9 5 4 b e s ig n ific a n c e b e st p r e d ic tio n s . 1 9 5 5 o f th a t a m o u n t sp e n t D e p a r tm e n ts p r e d ic te d m o n th s a c t iv it y fir s t h a lf o f la s t y e a r . T h e U n ite d p e n d itu r e s fir s t o f p e r c e n t a b o v e co m p a r ed jo in tly th e v o lu m e p e r c e n ta g e C o m m er ce in o f a p p r e L a st N o L a b o r a n d c o n s tr u c tio n re co r d b y 7 e x p e r c e n t. A ugust 1955 T able 1 o f th is y ea r . C o m m e r c ia l E x p e n d i t u r e s fo r N e w C o n s t r u c t i o n , U n i t e d S t a t e s sh o w n g r e a t str e n g th , F irst six m onths o f 1955 b y P e r c e n t ch a n g e— F ir s t s i x m o n t h s 1955 fr o m fir s t s i x m o n t h s 1954 T o ta l new c o n s t r u c t i o n ............................. P riv a te co n s tr u c tio n .................................. R esid en tia l ( n o n f a r m ) ........................... N on resid en tia l (n o n fa r m ) ................. C o m m e r c ia l ........................................... P u b lic c o n s t r u c t i o n .................................... P r o p o r tio n o f to ta l e x p e n d it u r e s — F ir s t s i x m o n t h s o f 1955 +14 +20 +31 +18 +31 + 1 31 th e tim e o p tim is m fe e l m a n y o f th a t th is “ th e o b se r v e r s o ff ic ia l f o r e c a s t , b lo o m c o n s tr u c tio n w a s w a s o ff p r e d ic te d w ill e x c e e d th e co n ce rn ed . c e s s f u l fir s t h a lf , t h e s a m e r e c e n tly e x p r e sse d th o se th a t o f fo r m a n y b o o m ” In s u r p r is e lig h t h a d a t le a s t o f th is a t th e co m e a s n e w b u t th e T a b le 1 fir s t h a lf w a s c o n n e c t io n , in th e it fir s t s ix c o n s tr u c tio n b y 3 11 o n re a d y v e r y to p r iv a te in te r e s tin g o f b e lo w in th e te rm s to fa r h ig h ly th e h ig h M a n y V A n o te as su c o f le v e l o f b o o m th a t sta r ts a n e s t im a te d 6 8 4 ,- sa m e p e r io d a ll-tim e a n In in h o u s in g it is c le a r o f 1 9 5 4 p a sse d fr o m a n d p a y m en t a n d b een in 1 9 5 4 a n d in th e h a v e im p o r ta n t b een fa c to r s tr u c tio n , w h ic h s e a s o n a lly a n d a s a w ith F H A lo a n s h a v e a ls o a n d p e r io d tio n w a s co m p a r ed o f d u e M o r e o v e r , tia lly th a n 1 9 5 4 . a lm o s t F H A la r g e r T h e V A p r o p o r tio n v o lu m e lo w d o w n is h e d th is y e a r a n d th e J u n e ; m e a n w h ile b e lo w th a t o f su ch th e th e h ig h a s th e c o m p a r is o n o f a to th e r e s u lt to b y th e th e c o r r e sp o n d in th a t p r o p o r in c r e a s e th e g r o w th a c c o u n t in V A fo r m o r tg a g e s lo a n s , o f a th e h a s h ig h so m e w h a t F e d e r a l R e se r v e o f th is c h a n g e w ill fir s t h a lf w e r e e a r lie r w h e n a o n lo a n s . su b sta n n e w g r a d u a lly le v e l o f d it io n , e ffe c tiv e an d th e b e m a x im u m fe lt so m e fu r th e r a n d u n d er n e w 2 1, in th e th e n o n r e s id e n t ia l e x p a n d in g h o u se s m o r e su r o f is to c o n tr a c t c o n 4 0 1 ,7 0 0 T w e lfth (o n D is tr ic t a in m o n th s n a tio n a lly in r e m a in e d p r e c e d in g y e a r s V e te r a n s g u a r a n te e d d o w n p o in ts . e ffe c t u p o n w e r e 1 8 -m o n th a ls o d u r in g D is tr ic t 2 d e sh o w s c o n s tr u c tio n a e m p e r io d . E m p l o y m e n t , U n it e d S t a t e s a n d (in thousands) Jan uary ................. ............ F e b ru a ry ............ ............ A u g u s t ................. S e p te m b e r .......... O cto b e r ................. N o v e m b e r ............ D e ce m b e r ............ 1955: January . . , , ........... ............ ............ ........... ........... ............ ............ ............ ............ .................... ............ . ............ ............ ............ ............ F e b r u a r y ............... . . T w e lft h D is tr ic t as a p ercen t of U n ite d S ta te s T w e lft h D is tr ic t 2 ,2 8 0 2 ,2 8 6 2 ,3 4 0 2 ,4 5 2 2 ,5 4 2 2 ,6 2 9 2 ,6 8 6 2 ,7 3 5 2 ,6 9 8 2 ,6 5 2 2 ,5 9 8 2 ,4 2 6 3 2 2 .7 3 2 3 .9 3 3 4 .5 3 4 6 .7 3 6 2 .5 3 7 2 .3 3 7 9 .1 3 8 7 .5 3 8 8 .0 3 8 4 .5 3 7 0 .8 3 6 5 .1 1 4 .2 1 4 .2 1 4 .3 1 4 .1 1 4 .3 1 4 .2 1 4 .1 1 4 .2 1 4 .4 1 4 .5 1 4 .3 1 5 .0 2 ,2 3 7 2 ,1 6 9 2 ,2 5 5 2 ,3 9 9 2 ,5 2 9 p 2 ,6 1 0 P 3 4 1 .1 3 4 4 .6 1 5 .2 1 5 .9 1 5 .8 1 5 .4 1 5 .4 1 5 .4 356.0 372.9 3 8 9 .2 4 0 1 .7 p Preliminary. Sources: Council o f E conom ic Advisers, Economic Indicators, July 1955, and state em ploym ent agencies in the T w elfth District. b est o b ta in e d In a d th a t b e in g s h o u ld re h a v e d em a n d . m a in ta in e d th e a p p r o x im a tio n e x p e n d it u r e s to th a t a is s ta t is t ic a l a v a ila b le s e r ie s fo r th e o n c o n T w e lfth sta te s is th e r e c e n tly re c o n str u c te d s e r ie s o n th e p a y m e n ts w e r e h o u s in g c o n s tr u c tio n le v e l o f a c t iv it y in a n n o u n c ed T h is a n d T a b le e f A d m in is t r a tio n lo a n s e x p e n d it u r e s . sec o n d s o ld p le n t if u l. A d m in is t r a tio n p e r c e n ta g e d a m p e n in g p ea k th e h a s in d ic a tio n m o n e ta r y c o m m itm e n ts 3 0 y e a r s to 2 5 y e a r s a n d in c r e a s e d P r iv a te h ig h o n 1 9 5 5 fir s t fo r d im in H o w e v e r , th e p r im a r ily fu n d s w e r e A u g u st m a t u r it ie s d u c e d fr o m b e in g fin a n c e d F e d e r a l H o u s in g in U n ite d S ta te s h o u se s e c o n o m ic tig h te r S y ste m . m o st o f th e m o r tg a g e o f th e th e ( N o t a d ju sted fo r seasonal variation ) D is tr ic t h a lf o f t h e y e a r , s in c e n e w th a t b e tw e e n O n e v a lu e T able 2 s tr u c tio n fe c ts in D is tr ic t, in d ic a to r s m o n th s w h o le . o n T w e lfth a c t iv it y e m p lo y m e n t o f C o n t r a c t C o n s t r u c t io n T h e p o lic y a n a tio n a l p lo y m e n t o v e r a n r e c o r d in g s. p a y m e n t s h if t o cc u r re d fig u r e s th e o f e m p lo y m e n t in sa m e le v e l p a y fir s t fiv e m o n th s p e r c e n t in lo a n s o f a n d o f m o r tg a g e fu n d s a v a ila b le , e s p e c ia lly n o -d o w n a c t iv it y 2 8 m a r k e d e n tir e ly a n d o f to ta l m o r tg a g e 3 0 -y e a r , o r le s s in w ith T h e V A d o w n m o r t r e c o r d in g s o f $ 2 0 ,0 0 0 w h o le , n o a c c o u n te d fo r a b o u t 3 6 p e r c e n t o f th e to ta l n o n fa rm in g a b a s is ) a c lo a n s o f th is y e a r s ix a s rea ch ed a d ju ste d c o n c o n s tr u c tio n m a d e 3 0 y e a r s m a t u r it y c o u n tr y cu rr en t fo r s ta t is t ic a l fir s t n a tio n a c o m p a r is o n lo a n s F H A g a g e In a s h a s 1 9 5 4 T w e l f t h D i s t r i c t , 1 9 5 4 -5 5 m o r tg a g e r e s id e n tia l 3 0 y e a r s m a t u r it y a v a ila b le w ith m e n ts. n o o th e r th e th a t o f th e b e fo u n d a re a v a ila b le D is tr ic t c o n s tr u c tio n h ig h . g u a r a n te e d o f th e th a t to t a le d th e b een lo a n s g a in h a lf o f c a te g o r y . th er e 1954: tiv ity . p e r c e n ta g e p a r tic u la r , fir s t e x p e n d itu r e s r e s id e n tia l s e c to r . 1 9 5 0 h a s str e n g th to 1 9 5 5 a v a ila b ility e a sy tr ib u tin g th e in th e p e r c e n t. m a jo r h ig h e r th a n p erc en t T h e th e m o n th s 0 0 0 , o n e -f if th o n ly in is a b o v e G o v e r n m e n t d e p a r tm e n ts h a v e 1 9 5 5 1 9 5 4 sh o w s, sa m e c o n s tr u c tio n in c r e a s e in s p it e A s th e r e s id e n tia l U n fo r tu n a te ly , o f h a lf th a t p e r c e n t— p r iv a te c o n s tr u c tio n , r is in g Available statistics indicate recent growth of construction activity to be higher in the Twelfth District 100 72 39 18 7 28 Sources: United States Department of Commerce, Building Materials and Con struction D ivision ; and United States Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Construction A ctivity Release (U S D L -120 9) for June 1955. A t 99 M O N T H L Y REVIEW a fir s t h a lf b u ild in g p e r m it a c tiv ity L a b o r S t a t is t ic s .1 tw e e n n a tio n a l a n d ca n b e a n d 1 9 5 5 h ig h e r th a n m a d e w a s H o w e v e r , o n ly (T a b le ra te o f 3 ) . in a b y th e fir s t T h o se th e in p e r m it a c t iv it y p e r io d s sh o w se v e n n a tio n a l B u r ea u c o m p a r is o n q u a r te r fig u r e s th e th e d e ta ile d D is tr ic t b u ild in g fo r in c r e a s e sh o w n p u b lis h e d to t a l. fa r a o f d a ta 1 9 5 4 c o n s id e r a b ly w e ste r n S ix o f b e o f th e sta te s sev e n 1 Expenditures on projects covered b y the permits o f a particular month are dis tributed over several months, but the bulk of such expenditures probably occurs within 60 to 90 days after the permits are issued, with considerable overlap from other months. Thus, peaks and valleys in perm it data are likely to be delayed and somewhat sm oothed out in the expenditures data. 100 August 1955 FEDERAL RESERVE B A N K OF SAN FRANCISCO T able 3 o n e B u il d in g P e r m it A c t iv it y , U n it e d S t a t e s a n d w h e n co m p a r ed p o p u la tio n T w e l f t h D is t r ic t th a t to th e r e s id e s la te s t p o p u la tio n in p r o p o r tio n th e se e s t im a te s sh o w o f th e se v e n sta te s. th a t le s s n a tio n a l W h e r e a s th a n 1 2 p erc en t th is a rea , o v e r 2 2 p erc en t (b y v a lu e ) F ir s t three m on th s o f 1954 and 1955 (in m illion s of dollars) 1954 U N IT E D S T A T E S : A ll b u ild in g c o n s tru ctio n 1 .......... 3,315.5 N e w d w ellin g units2 ................. 1,903.9 N e w n on resid en tia l b u i l d in g .. 1,070.7 A d d itio n s, altera tion s, and 308.8 repairs ......................................... T W E L F T H D IS T R IC T : A ll b u ild in g c o n s t r u c t i o n ............ N e w n on resid en tia l b u i l d in g .. A d d itio n s , alterations, and repairs ......................................... P roportion Percent o f total change con stru ction 1955 1954-1955 1955 4,132.5 2,581.1 1,170.1 + 25 + 36 + 9 100.0 62.4 28.3 339.4 + 10 8.2 o f th e n a t i o n ’s p e o p l e o f th e b u ild in g th e n a tio n th e T w e lfth p o r tio n tr ib u te d m o n th s 951.8 664.8 213.1 68.4 73.9 100.0 69.8 22.4 + 35 +49 + 11 + A R IZ O N A : A ll b u ild in g c o n s t r u c t io n ............ N e w d w ellin g u n i t s ................... N e w n on residen tial b u ild in g . . A d d itio n s, alterations, and repairs ......................................... 32.3 18.1 11.9 44.6 31.9 9.5 + 38 + 76 — 20 100.0 71.4 21.4 2.3 3.2 +41 7.2 C A L IF O R N IA : A ll b u ild in g c o n s t r u c t i o n ............ N e w d w ellin g u n i t s .................... N e w n on resid e n tia l b u ild in g .. A d d itio n s , alterations, and repairs ......................................... 538.3 353.9 131.5 724.6 515.0 154.0 + 35 +46 + 17 100.0 71.1 21.2 52.9 55.6 + 5.5 3.4 1.1 + 13 + 79 — 36 100.0 62.0 20.8 1.2 0.9 — 19 17.2 NEVADA: A ll b u ild in g co n s tru ctio n ............ N e w d w e llin g u n i t s ................... N e w n on resid en tial b u ild in g . . A d d itio n s , alterations, and rep airs ......................................... 15.7 9.6 4.9 20.8 16.0 3.6 + 32 + 66 — 27 100.0 76.6 17.1 1.2 1.3 + +27 + 32 + 25 100.0 53.1 34.2 3.9 4.4 + 14 12.7 UTAH: A ll b u ild in g c o n s t r u c t i o n ............ N e w d w e llin g u n i t s ................... N e w n on resid en tia l b u ild in g . . A d d itio n s, altera tion s, and repairs ......................................... 15.8 11.0 3.5 21.8 14.4 5.9 + 38 + 31 + 66 100.0 66,1 27.0 1.2 1.5 + 22 6.9 W A S H IN G T O N : A ll bu ild in g c o n s t r u c t i o n ............ N e w d w e llin g units ................... N e w n on resid en tial b u ild in g . . A d d itio n s, alterations, and repairs ......................................... 71.0 37.2 28.0 99.6 65.6 27.2 +40 + 76 — 3 100.0 65.8 27.3 5.7 6.9 +20 6.9 p a ce, h e a v y s till d e c lin e s c a t io n a l, T h u s, tiv ity — le a s t b u t its sh o w e d p e r m it s p u b lic , a n d b y th e s tr u c tio n in e ith e r T w e lfth fu ll sh a re in d u s tr y . e x c e e d e d p e r m it a m e a su r e — D is tr ic t th e T h a t 13 is s u e d r e lig io u s o f th e a c t iv it y . n a tio n a l Id a h o fo r E x a m in a t io n sa m e u m e (C h a r t o f th e s c a le 1 ) ra te a lo n e M o r e g r e a te r fo r " g r o w th in th e in th e b een o f in o ff p e r m it n a tio n a l is a 1 9 5 4 a n th r o u g h o u t to in d ic a te a c t iv it y ra te th e fir s t p e r m it h a s th a n th a t b een th e o f d o lla r in c r e a s in g e s t im a te d m o n th s d a ta o n e m p lo y m e n t e m p lo y m e n t th e s ix a c t iv it y c o n s tr u c tio n in th e v o lu m e 1 9 5 5 w a s v o l a t a in d u s o f p e r 2 9 p er- _____________________________ Contract Construction Employment (thousands of persons) ' " Unadjusted" / w a s a c e n jo y in g in T w e lfth s ig n ific a n tly sh a re f L \ J , l „, 1.....1 -J . - , F M A M J a t c o n la r g e Permit Activity (millions of dollars) i 1 ...1—. J — J A S O N D J l . i .j __ J___ F M A M J 1954 1955 *April to June data estimated b y the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. N o te : This chart is plotted on a logarithm ic scale on which equal vertical dis tances represent equal percent changes rather than equal absolute am ounts. Sources: Contract construction em ploym ent: State em ploym ent agencies; Per m it activ ity : United States Departments of Com m erce and Labor, Construc tion Review. g a in . in c id e n ta lly , T h e -k b u ild in g s . sh a re, th e Ratio Scale e m p lo y m e n t o r a t e a r ly C hart 1 o f e d u b e b e th e o f p o p u la tio n fa c to r . h a s m a y in B U IL D IN G P E R M IT A C T IV IT Y A N D C O N T R A C T C O N S T R U C T I O N E M P L O Y M E N T — T W E L F T H D I S T R I C T , 1954-55 c o n s tr u c tio n to a n d D is tr ic t c o n c r e te ly , w h ile c e n t a b o v e th e e m p lo y m e n t in f lu x p o p u la tio n w ith a p p e a rs c o n s tr u c tio n s u b s ta n tia lly tr y . o f r a t io d e s p it e a p p e a rs a re a p e r m it a c t iv it y D i s t r i c t ’s in p e r io d . in c r e a se p erc en t la r g e r p e r c e n t1 in p la c e - th e D is tr ic t b u ild in g th e p o stw a r th e N ote: D istrict and state figures m ay not add to totals because of rounding. 1 Includes new nonhousekeeping residential building, not shown separately. 2 Housekeeping only. Sources: United States D epartments o f Com m erce and Labor, Construction Re view;, June 1955; and United States D epartment of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, San Francisco Office, m onthly reports on Building Perm it A ctivity b y states. th e th a n 21 th is c o n d it io n s im p o r ta n t o f b u ild in g w a s in w e a th e r a n to o k ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1------------ 34.8 18.4 11.9 in sh a re a ls o 1 9 5 5 s o m e e x t e n t th e la r g e p r o p la c e y ea r , b u t th e is ■--------- ---------------27.4 14.0 9.5 o f o f th e o f 6.3 8 OREGON: A ll b u ild in g c o n s t r u c t i o n ............ N e w d w e llin g u n i t s ................... N e w n on resid en tial b u ild in g .. A d d itio n s , alterations, and repairs ......................................... sta te s m o n th s ta k in g fa v o r a b le m it a c tiv ity 4.9 1.9 1.8 fiv e u n d e r ta k e n Permit activity shows the greater rate of growth 7.7 5 fir s t D is tr ic t s ta te s . T o to ta l s e r ie s ID A H O : A ll building- co n s tr u c tio n ............ N e w d w ellin g u n i t s ................... N e w n on residen tial b u ild in g . . A d d itio n s , altera tion s, and r e p a i r s ............................................ th e y e a r s h ig h e r 7.8 8 in p e r m it a c t iv it y a c t iv it y to D is tr ic t n u a l th e c r e a se o f re ce n t 705.3 445.7 191.2 in r e s id e T h is p lo y m e n t tio n o f a s a m e p e r io d a p p e a rs m a r k e d a n d in s im ila r to in h a v e 1 9 5 4 , c o n tr a c t c o n s tr u c tio n m a d e d if fe r e n tia l p e r m it in a c tiv ity d is c r e p a n c y n o te d le s s ra tes is th a n o f a a p p a r e n tly b y 7percent c h a n g e a in e m r e fle c G o v e r n m e n t a g e n - * I t should be noted that the coverage o f the building perm it series is some what more com plete in the W est than in the eastern states. H ence, the differ ential shown here m ay be exaggerated. August 1955 c ie s in th e n a tio n a l p e n d itu r e s In p a r t, tio n th is c o sts. It q u ite lo w is g iv e n o n b e tw e e n o f M a r c h 1 9 5 3 c r e a se d to a n d b e in g q u a lity , w h ic h e ffic ie n c y . F in a lly , to tin u e s tio n p e r m it s th e to o f la g a n d ta p er o ff in a ctu a l th e e m p lo y m e n t m a y so m e 1 0 .8 a s y s Los Angeles Metropolitan in p u t. b y th e p er n e w V/ p e r c e n t in th e i t D e p a r t c o st 2 ra th e r a * a to a n o f p h y s ic a l c o n tin u e to o f m a y in th e / San Francisco-Oakland Metr opolitan Area c o n str u c D is tr ic t fo r ! » I t i l l i J r i — 1— !__1 .1__1__1__1__I_______1__ J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D 1954 the District—‘Los Angeles leads all metropolitan areas D w e llin g n o te a t th e d a ta in T a b le th a t r e s id e n tia l c o n s tr u c tio n 3 , is it is o f C h a rts d e n tia l b u ild in g s ig n ific a n c e b e in th e e x p la in e d o f th e se v e n D is tr ic t in th a n p a rt b y fa r w e s te r n in th e th e fa c t n a tio n . th a t th e s ta t e s is e s t im a te d 1 5 .6 p erc en t to h a v e m o r e th e h a d n a tio n , 3 .0 5 3 .3 8 . a s in T h is is n u m b e r o f tio n a lly to se v e n to T h is m e a n s g r e a te r n e w la r g e r th a t th e th a t th e th a t o f is in in th e th e to U n ite d W fo r c o n s is te d fig u r e o f th e w a s b o o st D is tr ic t h o u s in g b een th e w ith a v e r a g e fo r h o u s in g e v id e n c e h a s in sta te s d em a n d so m e th a n th e str e n g th g iv e s h o u s e h o ld ra te th a t W b u ild in g c e n te r o f h o u s e b u ild in g th a t th e d e c lin in g e st. n a T h u s, S ta te s m a y th e b e v e r y in th e in so u th e r n C a lifo r n ia , a n d in th e h a s a n y o th e r A s o f o f a rea T w e lfth in p a r tic u la r . D is tr ic t p e r m it W L o s A p p r o x im a te ly a c t iv it y is C h a rt a re a s s in c e th e r e s id e n tia l p e r m it s in th e L o s A n g e le s e s t is w h ic h a re a r e s i in f lu e n c e s fa c t T h is th a t th e in f lu e n c e is L o s A n g e le s is s u e d m o r e b u ild in g a rea in th e n a tio n 2 sh o w s, th e r e b u ild in g o f L o s v e r y e x p e c te d re ce n t L o s fo r A n g e le s h ig h m id - r e p o r t, th e A n g e le s m o n th ly u n its in g A ls o , th e J u n e m o n th s, lo a n s 1 9 .5 a h a s y et. D u e d a m p en ed to th e in b u ild in g p e r m it a c t iv it y , in d ic a t d e c lin e 4 0 A is ju st b e g in n in g to b e m ild p ic tu r e th e r e fle c te d in h a v e o cc u r re d c o n s tr u c tio n c o n s tr u c tio n th e a h ig h e s t d w e llin g o r r e s id e n tia l la g o f a in a b o v e th e p ea k , d em a n d b e to r e co r d e d p erc en t n u m b er a t w h ic h c o u ld a c c o r d in g to t a l, w a s w a s h o u s in g o f f ,, m e tr o p o li c o n s tr u c tio n o f m o r tg a g e fu n d s th a t m a y m o n th s a s w a s “ ta ilin g th e F r a n c is c o -O a k la n d e sta te M a r ch in o f in s p r in g in rea l J u n e 1 9 5 5 . so m e s u m m e r ; b u t o f in s la c k e n in g th e a v a ila b ility little la te v a lu e in S a n th e d e c lin e c o n s tr u c tio n th a t a n y re ce n t o f e x c e p t fo r th e fig u r e u n d er a n d b een a c tiv ity a n d le v e ls C o u n ty y ea r a g o , a n d h a s p e r m it a c tiv ity d o w n tu r n A n g e le s in in c o n s tr u c tio n . p er a c c o u n te d a rea . m o n th s. lo ra th er g o o d o f 1 9 5 5 c o n s tr u c tio n a n d rea l fo r s itu a tio n in so u th e r n C a lifo r n ia ca n b e o b ta in e d co m fr o m 1See the United States D epartm ent o f Labor and U nited States D epartm ent of Commerce, C o n s t r u c t i o n R e v i e w , M arch 1955, pp. 7-9. 2 It should also be noted that the em ploym ent and expenditure data have sig nificantly different areas of coverage. The net effect of these discrepancies in coverage is not clear. The em ploym ent figures exclude construction workers not em ployed by contractors, while the expenditures data exclude repair and main tenance. Both exclusions are significant but their effects on the relative stability of the two series cannot be evaluated. th a t m e tr o p o lita n m ig h t s u g g e s t th a t s o m e e sta te b y e x te n t to D is tr ic t. th e c o n s is te n tly th e p a st tw e lv e r e s id e n tia l ta n A ce n t th e o f a rea th a n p e r m it s m e tr o p o lita n in lig h t p e r m it s b e h in d ca ted in m e tr o p o lita n in e st. a c t iv it y a c t iv it y s u r p r is in g v e r y T h e in th e a v e r a g e n a tio n a l str o n g e r th e r e h o u s e h o ld th a n a fa c t D is tr ic t g r o w th b y p er th e w h e r e a s H o w e v e r , p e o p le b y is th e fa c t th e m s e lv e s th a n sh o w s a c tiv ity h a v e g r o w n w h ile p r o v id e T w e lfth 1 9 5 0 , r e in fo r c e d a to e v id e n c e d in 1 9 5 4 , p o p u la tio n p o p u la tio n a t a v e r a g e little is p r o b a b ly p erso n . a n d 2 p o p u la tio n p e r c e n t. A ls o , w e s te r n e r s a p p e a r in c lin a tio n th e r a p id d em a n d 1 9 5 0 6 .6 r e la tiv e p e o p le w h ic h p er a n h o u se s h o u s e h o ld o f b etw e e n h a s in c r e a s e d 1 a n d p e r m it (M o n th ly ). r e la tiv e d u r in g n a tio n b y L o c a l B u ild in g P e r m its in te r e s tin g o f g r e a te r n o t m a y U n its A u th o r iz e d p a r is o n to ta l to 1955 *April, M ay, and June data are from the San Francisco Office o f the Bureau of Labor Statistics and are not strictly comparable to data of earlier months, f January to September data are partly estimated by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Source: United States D epartm ent of Labor, Bureau o f Labor Statistics, N e w Residential permit activity of high relative significance in a g a in i V c o n c o n r is e \ a lte r a c tiv ity m o n th s, V Other Tw elfth District Metropolitan Areas h ig h e r p e r m it a c t iv it y sev e ra l \ !f in d u e c o n s tr u c tio n n e x t o f m e a n s is s u a n c e — / k / \ / in th e n , r e s u lt th a n th e th o u g h p erc en t t im e .2 L o o k in g r - in d e x C le a r ly , a s in p u t— b e tw e e n d iffe r e n tia l. E v e n c o st 1 9 5 5 . b u ilt d em a n d th e a p r o b a b ly o f p a tte r n a c o n je c tu r e o n ly M a r ch a re is In thousands c o n str u c la b o r c o n s tr u c tio n a tio n th e in sh o w o f p r o d u c t p e r u n it o f la b o r s tr u c tio n NUMBER OF BUILDING PERMITS ISSUED FOR NEW D W ELLIN G S-TW E LFTH DISTRICT METROPOLITAN AREAS 1954-55 1 p e r c e n t in c r e a se b e tw e e n 1 9 5 4 1 9 5 4 c o n str u c th e r e m e a n w h ile , c o m p o s ite h o u se s a n d la tte r v a lu e a d d C h ar t 2 e x in c r e a s in g in v a lu e c o n s tr u c tio n 1 9 5 4 ; M a r ch th a t h ig h in c r e a s e s a o n e h a lf o f a n d s iz e to th is o f in c r e a s e p o s sib le to a n d M a r ch e x p e n s iv e r e fle c tio n h o u s e s , w h ic h 1 9 5 3 th a n fr o m a v a lu e a v e r a g e C o m m er ce le s s cr e a se m o r e a ls o fig u r e s sh o w e d is m o d e r a te fr o m o n e -f a m ily c r e a se a n d / p r iv a te v e r y co m m e n su r a te cr ed en ce m e n t a is w ith o u t S o m e d is c r e p a n c y a n d s h iftin g n a tio n a l e m p lo y m e n t ,-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1-------------1-------------- tio n c o n s tr u c tio n s ta t is t ic s .1 p r o d u c tiv ity te m a tic 101 M O N T H L Y REVIEW e x a m in a tio n o f T a b le 4 . District lead over nation in nonresidential construction is slightly less T h e n e w d a ta in T a b le n o n r e s id e n t ia l 3 in d ic a te b u ild in g in th a t th e p e r m it s D is tr ic t is s u e d sh o w e d fo r o n ly 102 FEDERAL RESERVE BA N K OF SAN FRANCISCO s lig h tly 11 g r e a te r p er c e n t p a r tic u la r ly reco rd w h e n is it a re in 5 6 b u ild in g s . c e n t y ea r . in th e T h e r e fo r to 1 6 to t a l, o f m in d th a t 1 9 5 4 th e m o r e o f sto r e s in p e r m it s a ls o a n d n o ta b le b u ild in g s , p e r c e n t fo r th e b a n k a D is o f 5 2 b u ild - fo r e c a sts th a t fo r th e s tr u c tio n th e e s tim a te p e r c e n t fo r p u b lic b u ild in g s . o f su m , th e p ea rs to m o n th s w id e T w e lfth h a v e o f b een D is tr ic t c o n s tr u c tio n e x c e e d in g ly 1 9 5 5 , a p p a r e n tly c o n s tr u c tio n b o o m . a c tiv e le a d in g A s fo r in th e th e in d u s tr y a p - tio n th e s ix A w a y n ea r fir s t in a n a tio n - fu tu r e , o f so m e fu rth e r tio n J u ly th e o f th e ra tes th a t o f n o te h o u s in g w ill in w a s th e so u n d e d sta r ts fig u r e , m a d e A d m m is tr a - w ith th e w h ic h J u n e to b e th e V e te r a n s g u a r a n te e d w a s p e r c e n t fr o m y e a r ; a n d e s tim a te o n n a t i o n ’s a tt a in e d H o u s in g te r m s th e sta r ts b y in L a b o r h a lf h iS h co n - a n d in o f in d e c lin e re ce n t d e c lin e h o u s in g h e d e r a l in d ic a te d m o st C o m m er ce n o a n n o u n c e m e n t th e h a v e d o w n tu r n a n tic ip a te d la s t v e iT tig h te n in g c lin e o f 11 a H o w e v e r , th e H o w e v e r , a n d 1 9 5 5 a n e s t im a te , th e s o b e r in g o f th e m o st fo r recf n} A d m in is t r a tio n In sta r ts. sa m e 1 9 5 5 . th e to a n tic ip a te s b e lo w to m a in ly D e p a r tm e n ts th e q u a r te r f f 101!5 o f e x p e r ie n c e a c t iv it y to s liS h tly fir s t I th e a b o v e ) b u ild in g o n ly m o n th s h o u s in g fr o m o f p er- o f (m e n tio n e d a c c o r d in g 3 7 la te r s h o u ld a c tiv ity , d u e n u m b e r to ta l th e n a tio n m e r c a n tile d e c r e a se s 2 1 w a s is s u e d o th e r e d u c a tio n a l a n in c r e a se , in te r e s tin g c o n s tr u c tio n v o lu m e b u t ra te A m o n g fo r w e r e in s titu tio n a l n a tio n a l la r g e p e r c e n t f o r o ff ic e a n d p e r c e n t b u ild in g s , a n d th e v e r y n o n r e s id e n t ia l in c r e a se s a n d a b ro u g h t p e r c e n t fo r fa c to r ie s , 3 7 in g s , th a n s till is c o n s tr u c tio n d e v e lo p m e n ts tr ic t a d v a n c e in c r e a s e A ugust 1955 lo a n s , p u b lic a - sh o w s J u ly a d e- o f th is y e a r . T able 4 S t a t is t ic s for S o u t h e r n te Jan. C a l i f o r n i a ,1 F i r s t S i x M ar. F eb . M onths o f 195 5 A p r il M ay June P ercen t ch an ge J u n e 1955 fr o m J u n e 195 4 B u ild in g perm its issu ed (v a lu e ) S ou th ern C a liforn ia 93% s a m p l e ................. L . A . C o u n ty — ‘total (th o u s a n d s ) .......... R e s id e n tia l (th o u s a n d s ) ........................ N on resid en tia l (th o u s a n d s ) ................. $144,566 95,960 74,592 21,368 $137,738 84,655 54,931 29,724 $200,940 127,293 87,714 39,579 $199,450 124,236 90,193 34,043 $188,970 113,709 74,540 39,169 $174,047 115,847 75,947 39,901 + 4.4 — 1.1 + 16.8 D w e llin g u n its, L . A . C o u n ty (n u m b e r ) In c lu d e d in perm its— t o t a l ............................. Started ...................................................................... C o m p leted ............................................................... U n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n .............................................. 8,019 7,972 5,872 47,802 5,880 6,555 7,647 46,710 8,999 8,147 6,156 48,701 9,129 8,876 5,976 51,601 7,691 8,056 6,711 52,946 7,600 7,714 7,108 53,552 — 14.3 — 5.9 +20.6 + 26.9 E n g in e e rin g co n stru ctio n con tra cts A w a rd e d , So. Calif, (th o u sa n d s) ................. $ 18,657 $ 29,821 $ 19,288 $ 32,539 $ 26,853 $ 24,943 — 9.6 R e a l estate a c tiv ity , L . A . C o u n ty N u m b e r o f deeds r e c o r d e d ............................. 17,713 18,356 22,913 20,884 20,391 22,050 + 17.5 L o ts in su b d ivision s re c o rd e d , L o s A n g e le s C o u n ty (n u m b e r ) .................... 3,952 4,334 5,484 4,330 3,194 5,808 + 28.5 R e a l estate loans re c o rd e d , L . A . C o u n ty : N u m b e r . . . . ..................................................... A m o u n t (th o u sa n d s) .................................... 18,131 $197,860 18,572 $185,379 23,461 $259,492 21,665 $225,556 21,928 $227,917 22,601 $233,604 + 16.4 + 19.5 + 8 .1 1 Southern California is made up of San D iego, Im perial, Orange, Riverside, Los Angeles, San Bernardino, In y o , Ventura, Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, Kern, K ings, Tulare, and Fresno counties. Source: Security-First N ational Bank o f Los Angeles, “ M on th ly Summary of Business Conditions in Southern California.” CANNING REVIEW AND PROSPECTS T h e c o n s u m p tio n tin u e s in c r e a s e to in g r o w . th e o f ca n n ed fr u its N o t h a s n a t i o n ’s o n ly a n d it p o p u la tio n b u t p e r p e r s o n h a s a ls o in c r e a s e d . B e tw e e n 5 3 th e 3 9 c o n s u m p tio n p er c e n t p e rc en t. r o se a n d P e r b y c a p ita o n ly b a s is ) .1 A n 1 2 p er ca n n e d o f n e w C a n n e d b a b y c o n s u m p tio n p er c e n t fo o d fo o d , in tr o d u c e d m a jo r d e s ig n e d in fo r o n e co m p a n y th e th is c o n s u m p tio n in fr u it 1 9 4 9 - in c r e a s e d r o se 5 3 c o n tr a st, p r ic e -w e ig h te d g r o w th h a s b een th e b y th e c a n n in g in d u s tr y . a la r g e m o r e e ld e r s c a le d u r in g th e s ig n ific a n t o f th e s e . in tr o d u c e d n a t i o n ’s to c o n s u m p tio n a a lin e o f p o p u la tio n ca n n ed a n d th is J T h e gradual shift in the consum ption pattern accounts for most of the rise in the per capita consum ption o f all foods measured on a price-weighted basis. W ith a rising level of income, smaller am ounts of the lower cost food items (grain products and potatoes) and greater am ounts of the more costly items (fruits, vegetables, and most livestock products) are included in the diet. M easured on a retail weight equivalent basis, food consum ption per capita in creased on ly 1 percent between 1934-38 and 1949-53. n e w th e 1 9 3 4 -3 8 a n d o n c o n fr o m o f a ll fo o d s , in o n o f th e th e ca n n ed (m e a su r e d p r o d u c ts p r o v id e d 1 9 4 0 ’s , w a s p r o b a b l y a o f v e g e ta b le im p o r ta n t fa c to r v a r ie ty R e c e n tly c a p ita v e g e ta b le s b e n e fite d ty p e o f p r o d u c t m a y e v e n tu a lly p r o v id e a n o th e r b o o s t th e c o n s u m p tio n th is a g e in d ic a te d o f ca n n ed c a te g o r y in C h a rt is fo o d . T h e n u m b e r n o w la r g e T h e e x p a n d in g c o n s u m p tio n n a t i o n ’s t i o n ’s P r a c tic a lly c o ts a re c a n n in g a n d ca n n ed ca n n ed a ll o f th e h ere v e g e ta b le s a sp a ra g u s. s u m p tio n , D is tr ic t p r o p o r tio n ta b le s is o f b e in g th e a re th is o f p e o p le in c r e a s in g , a b o u t n o w g r e e n w ith o f U n ite d in o n e -th ir d p a ck ed p ea ch es, p ea s, g r e e n th e th e se in a s b u t h a s r e m a in e d th e n a a n d a p r i o f su ch b ea n s, to m a to e s, in n a tio n a l ca n n ed F u r th e r m o r e , o f fr u it c a n n in g v e g e h a lf o f D is tr ic t. p o r tio n s p r o d u c ts D is tr ic t. o f th e p ea rs, in c r e a s e S ta te s ’ o u tp u t th e fr u its a n d D is tr ic t. O v e r c o n s id e r a b le in c r e a s e d . p a ck ed tiv e im p o r ta n c e n o t in c r e a s e d a s v o lu m e a ls o a n d a re o f ca n n ed to c o u n t r y ’s a s A lo n g th e h a s fr u it v e g e ta b le s ca n n ed is 1. ta b le s is o f g r e a t s ig n ific a n c e th e a n d o f a n c o n in th e in c r e a s in g ca n n e d H o w e v e r , th e v e g e r e la o u tp u t o f th e D is tr ic t h a s a t a h ig h le v e l (C h a r t 2 ) . August 1955 103 M O N T H L Y REVIEW C hart 1 in UNITED STATES POPULATION 65 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER 1940-1975 Millions of persons 25| v o lu m e , c lin g p r o m in e n t. lim ite d p r im a r ily in to a n d th e a p r ic o ts w e r e D is tr ic t v e g e ta b le g r e e n b ea n s a n d to th e m o st p a ck w e re so m e to m a to p r o d u c ts. T h e 1 9 5 4 su c c e ss fo r ca n n ers h ig h e r p r ic e s in g fo r th a n c a n n in g ca n n ers. th e ir p r o d u c ts in sea so n . C a lifo r n ia s lig h tly m a te r ia l th a n fr o m e e T h e v o lu m e m a jo r 1 9 5 3 o f c a n n in g to fr u its sta te s 1 9 5 4 . A o f a n d th e v e g e ta b le s D is tr ic t d e c lin e o f 3 m illio n ch a n g e d c a s e s in in little th e fr o m to t a l c a n n in g v o lu m e , a s s h o w n in th e ta b le , w a s e n t ir e ly d u e to a c h a n g e in th e r e p o r tin g — w ith o u t m e th o d w o u ld ta b le w a s h a v e p a ck la r g e r th e cr ea ses o f th is ch a n g e r is e n in in a a b o u t a s w a s N o r th w e st. 2 .5 fr u it p a c k . A m o n g th e m illio n th e C a lifo r n ia m e th o d , o n e C a lifo r n ia 1 9 5 4 P a c if ic w a s b y b o th in th e to ta l m illio n a n d th e p a ck T e n d in g ca se ca se s. o f fr u its to a n d c a n n in g th e fr u its m o v e d o f th a t c a n o f 1 9 5 4 la r g e r fr o m 1 9 5 4 s u p p lie s ca n n ers th e w a s th e a t ra w sea so n v o lu m e D is tr ic t o f ca n 1 9 5 4 . T h e v o lu m e o f in d iv id u a l ite m s th a t m o v e d o f th e se sea so n . ite m s p u t u p W a ith b y s m a lle r th e c h a n g e s in th e ca n n ers o u tp u t th e 1 9 5 4 o f a p r ic o ts , d u r in g c lin g g r e e n p e a s , th e m o v e m e n t o f th e s e ite m s w a s 1 9 5 3 . O n th a n c ia te d in fr e e sto n e a s d id th e p a ck ch a n g es, s id e r a b ly th e o th e r p ea ch es, th e h a n d , p ea rs, m o v e m e n t g r e e n b ea n s o f in o f th e s e ite m s . D e s p ite th e s e a s s o to ta l m o v e m e n t la r g e r th a n th e a n d th e o f a ll ite m s w a s c o n to ta l p a ck . Downward adjustment of carry-over stocks continues T h e re d u ce d e x c e ss o f th e to ta l in v e n to r ie s , w ith m o v e m e n t th e o v e r r e s u lt th a t th e 1 9 5 4 p a ck D is tr ic t c a n n e r s v e g e N o r th w e st o ffse t in p a ck v o lu m e T h e P a c if ic r e d u c t io n C a lifo r n ia v e g e ta b le c a n n in g a d u r b e tw e e n in d ic a te to or p ea ch es, a n d cr ea sed ca n n ed v e g e ta b le s h a lf d u r in g b u t str o n g m o v in g c o st a s le s s ca n n ed District canning volume changed little in 7954 h ig h e r sea so n , in c a n n e r s ’ s to c k s g e n e r a lly fo llo w e d c a n n in g e Estimated. Source: United States D epartment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P 25, N o. 78, August 21, 1953 and Series P 25, N o. 98, August 13, 1954. a n d T h e h ig h th a t c a n n e r s ’ q u o ta tio n s la s t m a y fin a n c ia l C a lifo r n ia ra n g e p r ic e th e d if fic u lty p r ic e s . a s p r o b a b ly d a ily lo w u s u a l. T h is little p r e c e d in g fr u its v o lu m e e a n d a b y g e n e r a lly th e d u r in g so m e w h a t th e n e r ie s in th a n h a d q u o ted D is tr ic t w e r e h ig h h ig h e r w a s in ca n n ed e se a so n a p p a r e n tly y e a r , in d ic a tin g F u r th e r m o r e , n a r r o w e r g e n e r a lly w a s P r ic e s w e r e p r e v io u s c a n n e r s’ m a r k e tin g th e th e th r o u g h o u t th e th e n ers se a so n m o st c o n s id e r a b ly in p ea ch es In c r e a se s P r in c ip a l F r u it a n d V e g e ta b le P a c k s — C a l if o r n ia , O r e g o n , W a s h i n g t o n , a n d I d a h o ,1 1 9 5 1 -1 9 5 4 b e r r ie s th e se in C a lifo r n ia d e c lin in g (in thousands o f cases) F ru it packs : 2 P ea ch es C l i n g - ........................................... O th er ......................................... F ru it co c k ta il ............................. 1951 1952 1953 19543 15,136 3,433 7,489 6,003 3,950 1,470 A p p le s and app lesau ce .......... O th er fruits and b e r r i e s ......... 19,448 3,106 9,003 6,215 4,538 2,217 942 792 2,454 925 2,462 17,559 3,150 8,228 5,185 4,753 1,263 1,070 1,335 2,358 14,341 3,697 9,074 7,475 2,678 1,572 986 1,380 2,344 T o ta l fruits and b e r r ie s . . . 48,715 42,097 44,901 43,547 7,618 11,504 31,625 7,490 622 5,707 3,525 2,897 3,304 4,738 9,916 11,610 6,766 922 4,288 3,583 2,667 2,591 4,746 6,925 10,600 19,006 6,452 754 5,189 3,781 2,710 2,271 5,172 5,897 8,668 21,117 5,075 653 7,589 3,635 2,809 1,777 3,765 73,461 62,860 60,985 C hart 2 PERCENTAGE OF UNITED STATES CANNED FRUITS AND VEGETABLES PACKED IN WESTERN STATES1 1931-1954 1,229 Percent V e g e ta b le pack s :4 T o m a to j u i c e ................................ O th er tom ato p r o d u c t s ............ , , Beans, g re e n and w a x e d ........... A sp arag u s .................................... O th er v e g e t a b l e s ........................ T o ta l v e g e t a b l e s ................... ... . 1 Western states include California, Nevada, Arizona, N ew M exico, Colorado, Utah, W ashington, Oregon, Idaho, M ontana, and W yom ing. Pineapple canned in these states is not included in the figures. Source: Western Canner and Packer. 79,030 26,372 1 Includes a small volum e canned in M ontana. 2 24 2 ^4 case basis. 3 T h e reporting basis for the California vegetable pack was changed in 1954. The number of size 8 oz. cans to the case was increased from 48 to 72. The number of size 300 cans to the case was increased from 24 to 48 and size 303 cans were com bined with size 300 cans for reporting purposes. 4 A ctual cases. 5 Includes the tom ato juice pack in the Pacific Northwest. Sources: Northwest Canners Association; Canners League of California. 104 A ugust 1955 FEDERAL RESERVE B A N K OF SAN FRANCISCO en te r e d th e s u p p ly 1 9 5 5 c a n n in g o f ca n n ed h a d h a d th e 1 9 5 4 in 1 9 5 4 . se a so n T h e a ls o o f th e p r e c e d in g N o r th w e s t y ea r . p a c k s in th e P a c ific C a lifo r n ia . sto c k s r e p o r tin g T h e r e d u c t io n In w a s th e ta b le s w a s b o th la r g e r o n h a d th e y a ls o v e g e ta b le ite m s e x c e p tio n o f in in fr e e sto n e b y th e o n e v e n a m o r e y e a r v a r io u s th e a g o . to m a to 1 ,1 9 5 5 , c a n n e r s ’ s to c k s o f ca n n ed a s m a lle r co rn . o f c a n n e r s , d is t r ib u to r s ca n n ed a o n h a n d co v e r e d o f p r o d u c ts y e a r fr u its a g o . p e r c e n t la r g e r th a n h a d a p r ic o ts a n d v e g e T h e ir in sto c k s T h e to ta l th a n in r e p o r t, w ith in d ic a te p r e d ic te d th a t fr u its to m a to e s p r o d u c tio n u sed in th e a m o r e th a n o ffse t th e in d ic a te fo r a c e n t th a t lo w th e y ea r. th e o f in th e h ig h e r th e r e s u lt b e o f th e la r g e r th e e s ti m a jo r in 1 9 5 5 , in c r e a s e to m a to e s c a n n in g in th e a re n o t (su c h o u tp u t o f to m a to e s p r o d u c tio n a s w ill o f m o st fo r th e th e fiv e fa r m e r s in 1 9 4 4 -5 3 w ill p ea rs, in m a jo r p ro d u c e it a v e r a g e . D is tr ic t is fr o m a v e r a g e a n d fo r e c a st, a 61 8 w ith 13 w o u ld O n a th e th e b u lk p erc en t b e a n d th is s e e m s o n ly 3 p e r n a tio n a l b a s is to p e rc en t o f fr u its p ru n e s, 1 9 5 4 . A lth o u g h o u tp u t, o u tp u t o f ea c h a a p r ic o ts , o f th e s e fr u its is e x p e c te d 1 9 4 4 -5 3 c a n n in g b e s m a lle r fiv e th e 1 6 p e rc en t b e m a jo r o f th e p e r c e n t la r g e r p r u n e c r o p th a n la s t fr u its a 6 6 w e r e p e r c e n t), sn a p to b e b ea n 31 p er so m e w h a t o n to m a to e x p e c te d th e in c r e a s e d c o m p a r a tiv e ly to o la te , in D is tr ic t p r o d u c tio n fa v o r a b le g r o w in g h o w e v e r , fr u it fo r th e se is c o n d it io n s . fr u its to th e I t is en c o u n te r th e su ch c a n s) b een a o f d u r in g lo w e r fa ir in d ic a to r 4 o f m e ta l d a ta n o t T h e fo r c o v e r th o u g h p r e c is e ly ca n in g th e in th e to th a n e s t o f p r e c e d in g 2 6 ,0 0 0 to n s— c o n s is te d c r e a s e in m e ta l fo o d ern 1 0 fr u it a n d p e rc en t m illio n c a se s. h ig h th e a s T h is reco rd th e y e a r In a g o re ce n t in te r m s y e a r th e se c o n d o f h a r v e st th o u g h th e s h ip m e n ts a re a s o f h a v e q u a n tity e v e n ca n g e o g r a p h ic a n d q u a r te r ca n th a n m e ta l fo o d to n s la r g e r y ea r . T h e o f a fr u it v e g e ta b le la r g e r o f c lo s e th e p r o c e ss a th e fo llo w in g m e ta l 1 9 5 5 3 0 ,0 0 0 o f th e fo r a re d o e v e n o f th e p e r c e n t o f a n n u a l s h ip m e n t s . D u r p e r io d c o n ta in e r s in q u ite sa m e q u a r te r w e r e m a jo r m a n u fa c tu r e o f sta te s a n d d u r in g a b o u t 12 sec o n d W th e s h ip m e n t s y e a r a r e o n ly is v o lu m e te m y ie ld s e x p e c t q u a r te r w e ste r n r e la tio n s h ip c a n n in g p erc en t th r e e c o n ta in e r s . in fr u its a n d v e g e ta b le s to b e c a n n e d p e r io d . a a ls o o f a c r e a g e b ea n v e g e ta b le s se c o n d in is y ie ld s in c r e a se c a n n ers a n d c o n su m e d th e fr o m 1 9 5 4 . w e ste r n ste e l cro p th r e e p e r c e n t, w h ile d o w n sn a p sw e e t th e se ste m s r e m a in in g o n ly th e sn a p a n d a c r e a g e 1 a re sh a rp in o f p ea a b o u t o f 195 4 — (m e a su r e d r is e a n d b u lk in ca n th a n s h ip m e n t s in o f th is th e th e sa m e in c r e a s e — s h ip m e n t o f m e ta l v e g e ta b le c a n n in g . T h e in s h ip m e n t s s u g g e s t s th a t th e w e s t c a n n in g v o lu m e in a n d 1 9 5 4 v o lu m e o f p a ck 1 9 5 1 . o f o u tp u t in m a y 1 9 5 5 m a y a p p r o a ch w o u ld b e b e 1 3 6 n e a r ly a s Costs rise T h e p r o fit p o s itio n q u a n tity o n n o t y e t O f th a n th a t b y c a n n in g to m a to p r o d u c tio n G re en o f th e o f fr u its la r g e r P r e d ic te d cr o p s, in p e r c e n t), a c r e a g e s s h ip m e n t to n n a g e o n g r o w in g e ffe c t th a n b een p erc en t th re e th e th e a n d o f co r n h a s 4 2 p r e c e d in g o f fo r sn a p M o r e o v e r , o f a ls o r e s u lt fo r e c a st y e a r s c a n s h ip m e n t s fo r fo o d p r o d u c ts o f p r o d u c ts th e c o st th e o f p r ic e s h ig h e r fo r th e in c r e a s e th e v o lu m e fr u it o f th e D is tr ic t, a r e s la te d T h e to m a to a cr ea g e . sw e e t th e o u tp u t p r o d u c tio n la r g e r , b u t o n ly in d ic a tio n la r g e r re p e r c e n t. in in b e h ig h e r p r o c e sse d in c r e a s e a b o u t 4 s m a lle r v e g e ta b le to is co r n . ( - 6 1 9 5 5 v e g e ta b le s — s p in a c h p erc en t in th e p r e v io u s a n d is le s s c lin g o u tp u t. s w e e t in p e a s 3 7 p r o d u c tio n . p r o c e s s in g A n th a n p e r c e n t, r e s p e c tiv e ly . c e n t la r g e r a p r ic o t c r o p . C lin g p e a c h e s , th e m a j o r c a n n in g to r is e a n d a n d a n d cr o p s a th e p e r c e n t in c r e a se e x p e c te d m a n y in p r o d u c tio n p r e d ic te d g r e e n o ffse ts T h e in th a n p r o c e s s in g ca n n ed th e th a n 4 4 la r g e r a sp a r a g u s D is tr ic t v e g e ta b le v e g e ta b le s . in re d u ce d p e rc en t m o r e a sp a r a g u s a n d A lth o u g h p e r in c r e a s e a n d in o f m o r e fo o d p ea ch es, in c r e a s e In c r e a se d s u lt in g o f s m a lle r in d ic a te d D is tr ic t s iz a b le a b o v e a s ea ch v e g e ta b le s . A s in c r e a s e fo r e c a sts to n n a g e p r o d u c tio n o f w ill m u ch s w e e t c h e r r ie s th is y e a r th a n lik e p r o c e s s in g v e g e ta b le s . P r o d u c tio n g r e a te r c o m e s p u r p o se s o th e r th a n fr e e z in g ), a n d c o n s id e r a b ly in c r e a s e D is tr ic t o f p r o c e s s in g m a jo r fr u its b e p r o d u c tio n a cc o u n t la r g e o f to v e g e ta b le c r o p s . P r e lim in a r y th e fo r p r o c e s s in g o th e r e x p e c te d s p in a c h 3 7 a n d o f v e g e ta b le s fo r p r o c e s s in g to m a to e s, p a ck p e r c e n t), is sto c k p ea s, a n d ( - 3 d e v e lo p e d se a so n m a jo r ( - 3 2 J u n e p r o d u c tio n is la r g e r fr u it a n d d e c id u o u s w h ile 1 9 5 5 1 9 5 4 . T h e o f b o th m a te s D is tr ic t g r e e n C a lifo r n ia b ea n s ro t th e in c r e a s e fo u r co r n a o f p ea s. in 2 3 m a jo r th e p r e v io u s More raw material for District canners in 7955 v e g e ta b le s A c o m p le te d m o r e o f th e m a jo r ca n n ed 1 in b e c o n s id e r a b ly D i s t r i c t ’s se a so n . s u b s ta n tia lly w h ile th a n p e rc en t th e m o r e a n d th e y ea r . o ffse t sto c k s in to th e th e b r o w n la te D is tr ic t p r o d u c tio n b ea n s, b y y e a r is e x p e c t e d p r e v io u s fr u it L a st o rc h a r d s p u r p le p lu m s . p e r c e n t fr o m s u p p lie s 1 P a c ific ca n n ed d e c lin e d p ea ch a b o u t 3 0 th e th a n v e g e ta b le sto c k J u n e w e r e o f m a jo r in la r g e ly fo r d a te th e h a za rd s. o f a rea s. m a jo r in c r e a s e d a n d p e a ch es a b o u t 4 5 fr u it w e r e 4 y ea r , a n d th e y b e g in n in g p ea rs a n d p ea s. A s o f J u n e a h a n d o f ca n n ed s m a lle r th a n a t th e b e g in n in g se a so n m o r e c lin g a v a ila b le re co r d e d h a d o n a t th e tw o c o n tr a s t to th e s to c k p o s it io n n a tio n a lly th e in o cc u r re d b ea n s h a d in c r e a se 1 9 5 5 sa m e r e d u c t io n o f fr u its — ite m s a n d c a n n e d o f g r e e n m u ch h a n d C a lifo r n ia th e in o f d a te s sto c k s in o f s iz a b le o cc u r re d th a n h a n d N o r th w e s t— C a n n e r s ’ s u p p lie s la s t o n h o w e v e r , A a ls o a o n lo w e r th a n sta r t o f th e o cc u r re d re d u ce d p ea ch es o n b een fr u it th a n in c r e a s e , g r e a tly o f a t th e s m a lle r In c r e a se s T h is sto c k s h a d w ith v e g e ta b le s sea so n . C a n n e r s’ sto c k s p e r c e n t se a so n fr u its a n d ite m . o f ca n n e r s th a t th e y a c q u ir in g th a t th e y A p p a r e n tly 1 9 5 5 p a ck th a n d ep en d s w ill b e a n d a re a ll n o t o n ly a b le to p r o c e s s in g a b le m a jo r to fo r th e p a ck th e o b ta in c o st o n th e m a r k e t b u t ite m s p r o d u c t fo r th e w ill b e o f th e p r e v io u s sea so n . T h e c o s t to th e 1 9 5 5 p a ck D is tr ic t c a n n e r s o f fr u its a n d v e g e ta b le s fo r w ill a v e r a g e h ig h e r th a n in 1 9 5 4 . T h e p u r A ugust 1955 c h a s e p r ic e o f th e im p o r ta n t c lin g p e a c h in c r e a se d m a n y a ls o fr o m ca se s b e p a id w e r e 105 M O N T H L Y REVIEW a $ 5 5 p er b o n u s in a s k in g o f a in 1 9 5 4 to cro p $ 7 3 a p p r o x im a te ly 1 9 5 5 . In fo r to n $ 7 .5 0 a d d itio n , C a lifo r n ia h ig h e r p r ic e th a n in p er a C a lifo r n ia S o m e to n th a t p er a n d to n in w ill fr u its p ea r g r o w e r s y e a r a g o b u t ca n n ers a re a n d s e ttle d fo r a b o u t th e C h e r r ie s c o s t c a n n e r s le s s th a n a b o u t th e s itu a tio n sa m e o r s lig h tly is d o m in a t e d p er to n . P e a s c o r n is th e o n ly a b ly c o st W a g e in p r ic e a ls o p r ic e a s le s s . T h e v e g e ta b le a re is m o r e C a n n e rs m a y fr o m m o r e a b o u t $ 2 0 c o s t ly th a n m a j o r v e g e ta b le p a c k la s t ite m h a v e a ls o sta te s. w a g e y e a r a g o . D is tr ic t r a te s , c a n n e r s a p p a r e n tly th e ir m a c h in e r y p la c e d $ 2 2 .5 0 S w e e t in c r e a s e d . T h e y* c e n t s a m o n g a to a y ea r th a t w ill p r o b p er v a r io u s p u r c h a se s to B u t, e m p h a s is w h e n o n h a v e to 7 ce n ts D e s p ite th e n o t in c r e a se d a g r e a t e x te n t o v e r r e p la c in g p u r ch a ses o f p ittin g r e c o v e r y m a c h in e s fr o m sto n e e ffic ie n c y . fin d o n it d if fic u lt sev e ra l m a jo r to m a in ta in p a ck ite m s th e ir d u e to 1 9 5 4 h ig h e r T h e c o sts b y d e g r e e e q u ip m e n t , o f la b o r -s a v in g h ig h e r to w h ic h s e llin g th e y p r ic e s a re w ill a b le to o f f s e t h ig h e r d e te r m in e e x t e n t th e p r o fit d e r iv e d fr o m v e g e ta b le s , fo r th e 1 9 5 5 p a ck to a la r g e o f fr u its a n d m a te y ea r . 2 th e th e c a n n in g ra w p er to n w a g e in c r e a se s r a n g e d fr o m h ig h e r c o sts. c lin g th o se th e y o f h a v e m a c h in e r y . p a r tic u la r ly p ea ch es. C o n su m ers ca n n ers w ill th e ir in c o m e s a r e h ig h e r th a n to r is e sp en t la b o r ty p e s a p le s s . ra tes fo r c a n n e r y n e w in c r e a s e y ea r. e x p e n s iv e th a n m in im u m h o u r la s t to 1 9 5 4 w h ile a p r ic o ts c o s t b y th e to m a to p a ck . T h e r ia l fo r th is im p o r ta n t p a c k a g o , in c r e a s in g sa m e in tr y in g in c r e a se p r o fit m a r g in s p a r e n tly a re e x p e c te d fu r th e r . fo r ca n n ed th a n in fo o d fr u its ite m s to w h e r e o ff s e t h ig h e r It w o u ld so m e h ig h e r p r ic e s co st. a b le to a y e a r a g o th is In m a y a p p ea r, b e a re ex p e c te d in c o m e to ta l m a y b e s u p p lie s o f so m e w h a t th e r e fo r e , in m o r e, a s th a t s m a lle r h ig h e r w it h o u t a g r e a t d e a l o f d if fic u lty . ca n n ery tr a d e so u r c e s p r ic e s , p a r tic u la r ly m a y h e a v ily sp en d a n d in c r e a s e d a d d itio n , v e g e ta b le s b e o b ta in e d N e v e r t h e le s s , r e s is t a n c e o f p r o d u c ts. a n d 1 9 5 4 . p r ic e s c o u ld S o m e b e p a c k in g h a v e to b e fe a r fo r r a is e d co n su m er th o se ca n n ed c o n s id e r a b ly to 106 FEDERAL RESERVE B A N K OF SAN FRANCISCO A ugust 1955 BUSINESS INDEXES—TWELFTH DISTRICT1 (1947-49 average— 100) Year and month Total Waterborne Industrial production (physical volume)* nonagri Total CarDep’t Retail foreign cultural mf’g ioadings store food trade3* • Petroleum3 Wheat Electric employ employ (num sales prices Lumber Crude Refined Cement Lead8 Copper8 flour3 power ment4 ber)2 (value)2 «• s ment Exports Imports 1929 1931 1933 1935 1937 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 80 42 34 45 61 60 65 77 77 74 74 61 80 94 102 104 116 115 111 119 111 87 57 52 62 71 67 67 69 74 85 93 97 94 100 101 99 98 106 107 109 106 78 55 50 56 65 63 63 68 71 83 93 98 91 98 100 103 103 112 116 123 119 54 36 27 33 56 56 61 81 96 79 63 65 81 96 104 100 112 128 124 130 132 165 100 72 86 114 93 108 109 114 100 90 78 70 94 105 101 109 89 86 74 70 105 49 17 37 88 80 94 107 123 125 112 90 71 106 101 93 115 115 112 111 101 90 86 75 87 84 91 87 87 88 98 101 112 108 113 98 88 86 95 96 96 99 29 29 26 30 38 40 43 49 60 76 82 78 78 90 101 108 119 136 144 161 173 97 79 87 109 124 117 130 107 106 104 105 104 104 105 119 118 115 121 116 119 119 140 143 137 138 143 132 132 69 63 73 69 70 73 69 105 91 75 97 110 116 114 96 92 101 108 105 104 101 135 133 121 120 120 122 105 105 106 106 106 106 116 122 120 118 115 120 119 131 137 149 155 153 74 76 82 77 78 r 72 118 130 130 127 131 130 107 112 108 97 96 97 30 25 18 24 30 31 33 40 49 59 65 72 91 99 104 98 105 109 114 115r 113 64 50 42 48 50 47 47 52 63 69 68 70 80 96 103 100 100 113 115 113 113 190 138 110 135 170 163 132 124 80 72 109 119 95 101 ÌÓÓ 101 96 95 99 102 99 103 111 118 122 120 "47 60 55 63 83 121 164 158 122 97 100 102 97 105 122 132 139 136 102 68 52 66 81 77 82 95 102 99 105 100 101 106 100 94 97 100 101 100 96 '* 8 9 129 86 85 91 186 171 140 131 *57 81 98 121 137 157 200 308 260 183 179 174 174 176 177 173 120 119 119 120 121 121 122 138 132 131 137 138 139 140 96 88 90 97 102 98 106 lllr 114r 114r 114r 116 115r 118 114 113 113 113 113 111 111 141 144 96 115 112 118 113 237 331 282 262 277 196 313 173 179 188 191 122 122 123 123 124 125p 140 140 140 141 143 145 106 99 104 106 110 111 125r 118r 118r 120r 118r 118r 112 112 112 113 113 112 163 184r 163 287 263 240 290 280 1954 June July A u gu st Septem ber O ctob er N ovem ber D ecem b er 1955 Jan uary F eb ru ary M arch A p ril M ay June BANKING AND CREDIT STATISTICS—TWELFTH DISTRICT (amounts in millions of dollars) Year and month Condition items of all member banks7 Bank r■ aji4 i va9c oa m n short-term Loans U .S . Demand Total deposits and time business Gov’t discounts securities adjusted8 deposits loans9 1929 1931 1933 1935 1937 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 2 ,2 3 9 1 ,8 9 8 1 ,4 8 6 1 ,5 3 7 1 ,8 7 1 1 ,9 6 7 2 ,1 3 0 2 ,4 5 1 2 ,1 7 0 2 ,1 0 6 2 ,2 5 4 2 ,6 6 3 4 ,0 6 8 5 ,3 5 8 6 ,0 3 2 5 ,9 2 5 7 ,0 9 3 7 ,8 6 6 8 ,8 3 9 9 ,2 2 0 9 ,4 1 8 495 547 720 1 ,2 7 5 1 ,2 7 0 1 ,4 5 0 1 ,4 8 2 1 ,7 3 8 3 ,6 3 0 6 ,2 3 5 8 ,2 6 3 1 0 ,4 5 0 8 ,4 2 6 7 ,2 4 7 6 ,3 6 6 7 ,0 1 6 6 ,4 1 5 6 ,4 6 3 6 ,6 1 9 6 ,6 3 9 7 ,9 4 2 1 ,2 3 4 984 951 1 ,3 8 9 1 ,7 4 0 1 ,9 8 3 2 ,3 9 0 2 ,8 9 3 4 ,3 5 6 5 ,9 9 8 6 ,9 5 0 8 ,2 0 3 8 ,8 2 1 8 ,9 2 2 8 ,6 5 5 8 ,5 3 6 9 ,2 5 4 9 ,9 3 7 1 0 ,5 2 0 1 0 ,5 1 5 1 1 ,1 9 6 1 ,7 9 0 1 ,7 2 7 1 ,6 0 9 2 ,0 6 4 2 ,1 8 7 2 ,2 6 7 2 ,3 6 0 2 ,4 2 5 2 ,6 0 9 3 ,2 2 6 4 ,1 4 4 5 ,2 1 1 5 ,7 9 7 6 ,0 0 6 6 ,0 8 7 6 ,2 5 5 6 ,3 0 2 6 ,7 7 7 7 ,5 0 2 7 ,9 9 7 8 ,6 9 9 8 ,9 8 9 8 ,9 7 7 9 ,0 5 4 9 ,0 4 8 9 ,3 4 3 9 ,4 2 2 7 ,1 9 0 7 ,5 7 4 7 ,6 1 0 8 ,0 1 4 8 ,0 8 9 7 ,9 7 3 1 1 0 ,3 1 0 1 0 ,2 5 7 1 0 ,4 6 3 1 0 ,7 4 9 1 0 ,9 3 7 1 1 ,1 5 8 8 ,4 4 4 8 ,5 0 1 8 ,5 5 5 8 ,6 5 1 8 ,5 9 6 8 ,6 6 3 9 ,5 1 0 9 ,6 1 2 9 ,6 9 6 9 ,6 5 7 9 ,8 1 0 1 0 ,1 0 2 1 0 ,1 9 1 7 ,9 9 8 7 ,6 9 3 7 ,3 9 0 7 ,7 5 6 7 ,6 9 0 7 ,4 4 6 7 ,5 5 7 1 1 ,2 4 6 1 0 ,9 4 5 1 0 ,7 3 3 1 1 ,0 6 0 1 0 ,9 5 1 1 1 ,0 2 3 1 1 ,2 1 2 8 ,7 2 5 8 ,7 6 5 8 ,8 3 7 8 ,8 3 3 8 ,8 8 5 9 ,0 2 6 8 ,9 9 5 Member bank reserves and related Items10 Reserve bank credit11 — + + + + + + + + + 3 .2 0 3 .3 5 3 .6 6 3 .9 5 4 .1 4 4 .0 1 + + + — + + 34 21 2 2 1 2 2 4 107 214 98 76 9 302 17 13 39 21 7 14 2 Coin and Commercial Treasury currency in operations12 operations12 circulation11 0 154 110 163 90 192 148 596 — 1 ,9 8 0 -3 ,7 5 1 -3 ,5 3 4 -3 ,7 4 3 -1 ,6 0 7 510 + 472 930 -1 ,1 4 1 -1 ,5 8 2 - 1 ,9 1 2 -3 ,0 7 3 - 2 ,4 4 8 + 23 + 154 + 150 + 219 + 157 + 245 + 420 + 1 ,0 0 0 + 2 ,8 2 6 + 4 ,4 8 6 + 4 ,4 8 3 + 4 ,6 8 2 + 1 ,3 2 9 + 698 482 + 378 + 1 ,1 9 8 + 1 ,9 8 3 + 2 ,2 6 5 + 3 ,1 5 8 + 2 ,3 2 8 29 18 16 9 1 0 + - 307 28 170 138 244 127 + + + + + 170 12 196 142 342 175 34 15 10 60 55 27 10 + - 150 26 401 306 51 449 193 + + + + + + 77 57 362 261 195 429 217 _ + + + + + + + + + — — — — + + + Bank debits Index 31 eitles3* 13 (1 9 4 7 -4 9 - Reserves 100)» 6 48 18 14 3 31 96 227 643 708 789 545 326 206 209 65 14 189 132 39 30 175 147 185 287 549 584 754 930 1 ,2 3 2 1 ,4 6 2 1 ,7 0 6 2 ,0 3 3 2 ,0 9 4 2 ,2 0 2 2 ,4 2 0 1 ,9 2 4 2 ,0 2 6 2 ,2 6 9 2 ,5 1 4 2 ,5 5 1 2 ,5 0 5 42 28 18 25 32 30 32 39 48 60 66 72 86 95 103 102 115 132 140 150 153 3 7 8 23 27 23 2 ,3 0 8 2 ,3 1 7 2 ,3 6 8 2 ,3 6 4 2 ,4 4 0 2 ,5 0 5 145 154 152 150 158 173 79 13 1 15 50 35 9 2 ,4 8 1 2 ,4 4 7 2 ,4 1 8 2 ,4 3 2 2 ,4 7 6 2 ,4 3 9 2 ,4 9 5 161 166 177 165 170 178 166 1954 Ju ly A u gu st Septem ber O ctob er N o v em b er D ecem b er + 4 .0 8 + + 4 .0 1 + + + + 1955 Jan uary F eb ru ary M a rch A p ril M ay June July — 3 .9 8 + + + — 3 .9 9 + + — + — + + + 1 Adjusted for seasonal variation, except where indicated. Except for department store statistics, all indexes are based upon data from outside sources, as follows: lumber, various lumber trade associations; petroleum, cement, copper, and lead, U.S. Bureau of Mines; wheat flour, U.S. Bureau of the Census; electric power, Federal Power Commission; nonagricultural and manufacturing employment, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and cooperating state agencies; retail food prices, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; carloadings, various railroads and railroad associations; and foreign trade, U.S. Bureau of the Census. 2 Daily average. 8 Not adjusted for seasonal variation. 4 Excludes fish, fruit, and vegetable canning. * Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Seattle indexes combined. 6 Commercial cargo only, in physical volume, for Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego, Oregon, and Washington customs districts; starting with July 1950, “special category” exports are excluded because of security reasons. 7 Annual figures are as of end of year, monthly figures as of last Wednesday in month or, where applicable, as of call report date. 8 Demand deposits, excluding interbank and U.S. Gov’t deposits, less cash items in process of collection. Monthly data partly estimated. 9Average rates on loans made in five major cities during the first 1 5 days of the month. 10End of year and end of month figures. 11Changes from end of previous month or year. 12Minus sign indicates f l o w of funds out o f the District in the case of commercial operations, and excess of receipts over disbursements in the case of Treasury operations. 13Debits to total deposits except interbank p r i o r to 1 9 4 2 . Debits to dem an d deposits except Federal Government and interbank deposits from 1942. p — Preliminary. r— Revised.
@FedFRASER