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MONTHLY REVIEW TWELFTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT AUGUST 1951 Fe d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k S a n Fr a n c i s c o of RETAIL SALES IN THE FIRST HALF OF 1951 s h i f t in t h e b u y i n g h a b i t s o f c o n s u m e r s is e v i m a r k e d A dent in th e tre n d a n d th e T w e lft h o f r e ta il s a le s in b o th n a tio n m o n th s a n d in c r e a se d th e siz e o f m o n th ly p a y m e n ts a s m a x im u m m a tu r itie s w e r e sh o r te n e d . o f th e T h e d o ll a r v o l u m e o f s a le s in t h e n a t i o n ’ s r e t a il s t o r e s y e a r . I n t e r n a t io n a l p o litic a l d e v e lo p m e n t s r a th e r t h a n d o in e a c h m o n t h d u r in g th e s e c o n d q u a r t e r s h o w e d a s u c m e stic e c o n o m ic fo r c e s p r o v id e d th e d o m in a n t fo r c e b e c e s s iv e h in d m o v e m e n t s in t h e v o l u m e o f r e ta il t r a d e d u r i n g t h is p e r io d g a in w a s 8 p e r c e n t in A p r i l , 6 p e r c e n t in M a y , a n d p e r io d . I n D is t r ic t f o r th e fir s t s i x th e J a n u a r y a n d F e b r u a r y , p a n ic b u y in g b y c o n r e d u c tio n in th e y e a r -t o -y e a r g a in ; th e year- o n ly 1 p e r c e n t in J u n e . W h e n th e s e p e r c e n t a g e g a in s a r e s u m e r s , s p a r k e d b y th e in te r v e n tio n o f th e C h in e s e C o m t a k e n in c o n ju n c t io n m u n i s t s in t h e w a r in K o r e a in la t e N o v e m b e r , d r o v e t h e le v e ls p r e v a ilin g d u r in g th is p e r io d r e la tiv e to p r e -K o r e a le v e l o f to ta l r e ta il s a le s in th e U n ite d S ta te s to reco rd le v e ls w ith th e s u b s ta n tia lly h ig h e r p r ic e ( c o n s u m e r p r ic e s w e r e u p 9 p e r c e n t in J u n e o v e r h ig h s f o r t h o s e m o n t h s ; in J a n u a r y , s a le s w e r e 2 3 p e r c e n t June ahead of Jan uary p h y s ic a l v o lu m e w e r e a c tu a lly d o w n fr o m y e a r -a g o le v e ls . C on su m er 1950. d u r in g Jan u ary - F eb ru a ry I t s h o u ld p e r h a p s b e e m p h a s iz e d th a t th is le v e l o f s a le s , n o t w it h s t a n d in g th e s h a r p d e c lin e o v e r th e p e a k r e a c h e d th a t p r ic e s w o u ld c o n tin u e in J a n u a r y , is s t ill a v e r y h i g h o n e . I t is o n ly w h e n c u r d u r in g second h a lf o f to th e it c a n b e r e a d i ly s e e n t h a t s a le s in t e r m s o f b u y in g s p r e e w e r e b a s e d c h ie fly o n th e w id e s p r e a d b e lie f th e pu rch ases 1950) rise 1950, s h a r p ly , a s and th a t th e th e y had s u p p ly of r e n t s a le s a r e c o m p a r e d w ith e x p e c t e d v o lu m e b a s e d o n a v a ila b le g o o d s w o u ld s h r in k p r e c ip ito u s ly a s n a tio n a l d e th e fe n s e e x p e n d itu r e s to o k a la r g e r sh a r e o f th e n a tio n a l o u t sp re e s th a t th e te r m p u t. r e c a lle d , fu r t h e r , t h a t t h e r e w a s u n d e r w a y in th e s e c o n d c le a r B y th e th a t m id d le th ese of fe a r s M arch , w ere how ever, u n fo u n d e d , it h a d at becom e le a s t fo r th e tim e b e in g , a n d b u y in g r e c e d e d to a m o r e r a tio n a l le v e l. abn orm al le v e ls reach ed d u r in g q u a r te r o f la s t y e a r a g r o w i n g b o o m S a le s in M a r c h , r e fle c t in g t h is r e a p p r a is a l o f th e s it u a t io n e a r lie r p a r t o f th e y e a r th a t le v e l c a n n o t b e c o n s id e r e d lo w . M a r c h a y e a r a g o a n d w e ll b e lo w p ercen t ah ead of la te J a n u a r y a n d t e n d e d t o a lla y s o m e w h a t th e fe a r o f a stea d of in c r e a se d d is a p p e a r in g . in th e c iv ilia n e c o n and a c tiv ity ju s t s lig h tly b e lo w Cumulative sales at Twelfth District department stores still a h e a d of 1950 r u n a w a y p r ic e le v e l. S u p p lie s o f a v a ila b le g o o d s , c o n tr a r y e x p e c ta tio n s , b u y in g th e J a n u a r y p e a k . D i r e c t c o n t r o ls o v e r p r ic e s a n d w a g e s h a d b e e n i m p o s e d in to scare o m y w h ic h h a d b o o s t e d r e ta il s a le s s u b s ta n t ia lly o v e r th e b y c o n s u m e r s , fe ll to a le v e l a b o u t 10 th e “ s lu m p ” c a n b e a p p lie d . I t s h o u ld b e d u r in g th e C u m u la t iv e s a le s f o r th e fir s t s i x m o n t h s o f th e y e a r a t T w e lft h D is tr ic t d e p a r tm e n t sto r e s w e r e 1 0 p e rc e n t a h e a d o f th e lik e p e r io d a y e a r a g o , j u s t s lig h t ly a h e a d o f th e 9 p e r c e n t g a i n f o r t h e n a t i o n a s a w h o l e . H o w e v e r , h a d it cu rem en t n o t b e e n f o r th e e x c e s s iv e ly la r g e v o l u m e o f s a le s in J a n ju s t g e ttin g m ost in con su m er w as of sp ree g o o d s c o n tin u e d a t v e r y h ig h le v e ls a n d th e d e fe n s e p r o program P r o d u c tio n b u y in g un derw ay, but in t e r m s o f a c tu a l d e liv e r ie s w a s n o t s ig n ific a n t r e la tiv e to u ary to ta l o u tp u t. u n d o u b te d ly A lth o u g h s t ill s t r o n g , t h e l iq u i d a s s e t p o s i t i o n a p p a r and 39 e n e d in b o t h t h e J a n u a r y - F e b r u a r y b u y i n g w a v e a n d in w ere 2 8 s a m e tim e e n te r e d g a te d th em to con su m ers had in to c r e d it a r r a n g e m e n ts fa ir ly su b s ta n tia l m o n th ly r e in s titu te d by th e w h ic h o b li p a y m e n ts in la te r m o n t h s . R e g u la t io n B oard of G overn ors la s t and 1950, e ffe c tiv e ly r a ise d dow n paym ent m o n th s a m uch a c tu a l d e c lin e . o f th e c o m p a r is o n S a le s sam e m o n th p e rc e n t g r e a te r th a n S e p te m b e r r e q u ir e m e n ts w o u ld s m a lle r g a in , o r in J a n u a r y a year Jan u ary s a le s w o u ld Also in This Issue Harvest Prospects Consumer Credit in the Twelfth District Defense Bond Drive w hat w ere e a r lie r a n d W , u n d e r p o w e r s p r o v i d e d f o r in t h e D e f e n s e P r o d u c t i o n A c t of p ercen t ah ead six a t th e th u s te n d e d fu r th e r to re d u c e th e a m o u n t o f fr e e sp e n d in g p o w e r a v a ila b le to t h e m th e have sh o w n is m o r e lik e l y , a n e n tly d e s ir e d b y c o n s u m e r s h a d b e e n c o n s id e r a b ly w e a k th e w a v e o f J u ly la s t y e a r . M a n y F ebru ary, have 56 August 1951 FEDERAL RESERVE B A N K OF SAN FRANCISCO been had v a ile d . m o n th s ru ary th e A s n orm al in th e fo llo w in g have been seaso n al n a tio n th e o n ly as end d is tr ib u tio n a of w h o le , th e s lig h tly b u y in g ahead of s a le s s a le s pre ever, th e fo u r le v e ls in Feb in sp ree o f y e a r -a g o e s tim a te s A u g u s t in d ic a te a v e r y fo r J u ly and th e le v e ls ; w h o lly w ere u n e x p e cte d . dow n 31 In th e percen t in th e se w eek th e D is tr ic t p a r a b le w e e k a y e a r e a r lie r . B y 4 , c u m u la tiv e w ere but 4 d o lla r not For th e percent fr o m tr a d in g day sh ow m o n th June. A fte r d iffe r e n c e s , w ere a d ju s tm e n t h ow ever, o ff fo r com d e p a rtm e n t sto res je w e lr y , A u gu st s a le s in over y e a r -a g o tre m e n d o u s v o lu m e F ebruary. a lm o s t th e h o u s e h o ld have t e x t ile s , m a in ta in e d fir s t h a lf o f th e y e a r . n o tio n s , books and d a te as ap p arel th e seaso n al a g a i n o f a b o u t 5 p e r c e n t in J u l y f r o m ite m s th e c a le n d a r y e a r to s a le s su ch p a ce d u r in g g o o d s a t of s m a ll art and s ta tio n e r y w ares n e e d le rose but such w ares, fa ir ly S a le s w ork 14 sm a ll a by as even D is tr ic t s ilv e r w a r e , m a te r ia ls , and p e r c e n t o v e r y e a r -a g o s a le s in th e J a n u a r y -F e b r u a r y b u y in g w a v e a n d in J u n e o f la s t y e a r a n d p h y s ic a l v o l o f J u ly , of p a r tic u la r ly s a le s w e r e r u n n in g o n ly 5 p e r c e n t a h e a d o f J u n e a y e a r a g o . u m e w a s u n d o u b t e d l y b e h i n d c o n s i d e r a b ly m o r e t h a n in June. g a in s th e d u r in g th e fir s t s ix m o n t h s . T h e s e 21, J u ly fr o m are th e w e e k e n d e d s a le s f o r th e percen t ah ead d e c lin e s ended to t h is y e a r th a n in t h e in itia l w a v e o f b u y i n g la s t s u m m e r . S a le s stru ck , la r g e s t s a le s fr o m and w ave th e e n tir e ly t r a c te d m u c h le s s c o n s u m e r a tte n tio n in th e b u y in g w a v e w eek fir st b u y in g sh o w S o ft g o o d s h a v e s h o w n le s s s a le s flu c tu a tio n th a n d u r a b le g o o d s a y e a r a g o . A s J u ly la s t y e a r w a s th e m o n t h in w h ic h th e p a n ic to a lm o s t in fir st s u b s ta n t ia l d e c lin e in o w in g o f s u c h s a le s r e c o r d e d in J a n u a r y a n d in d e e d , in A p r i l s a le s f e ll 3 p e r c e n t b e h in d A p r i l 1 9 5 0 . P r e lim in a r y c o n tin u e 10 Siock-sales ratio rises to high level and D is tr ic t S to c k s June, co m at D is tr ic t d e p a rtm e n t sto re s have r is e n su b sta n tia lly o v e r y e a r -a g o le v e ls ; a t th e e n d o f J u n e , s to c k s p a r e d w ith a 3 p e r c e n t g a in r e p o r te d n a tio n a lly . w e r e 2 9 p e r c e n t a h e a d o f J u n e a y e a r e a r lie r . I n r e la tio n t o s a le s t h e g a i n is e v e n m o r e i m p r e s s i v e . S t o c k s in J u n e D urable g o o d s suffer greatest declines S a le s o f d u r a b le g o o d s , w h ic h sh a red of m o s t h e a v ily s a le s sin c e u n dergon e F ebru ary. S a le s th e m o s t se v e r e of such ite m s a s d e c lin e d e p a rtm e n t percent ahead sto res of m o r e th a n th e 8 1 sa le s of th ese rose Jan u ary in a Jan u ary year p ercen t reco rd ed ite m s had fa lle n 24 to e a r lie r , a p o in t percent b e lo w s a le s , d o w rn sto ck s had r is e n som ew h at fr o m to 3 .5 th e tim e s h ig h th e p o in t A n u n u s u a lly la r g e v o lu m e o f o r d e r s p la c e d d u r in g th e 130 b u y in g w a v e s a n d th e fa ilu r e c o n s id e r a b ly n a tio n a lly . B y o f th is y e a r , v o lu m e o f s a le s f o r th e s a m e m o n t h . re f r ig e r a t o r s , a n d o th e r m a j o r h o u s e h o ld a p p lia n c e s a t D i s tr ic t of r e a c h e d in A p r i l , w h e n s t o c k s s t o o d a t 4 t i m e s t h e d o lla r in sto v e s, June v a lu e t h e s c a r e b u y i n g w a v e s e a r l y t h i s }^ e a r a n d i n t h e s u m m e r o f la s t y e a r , h a v e 1 9 5 0 w e r e 2 .8 t im e s th e v a lu e o f s a le s in th a t m o n t h . B y in keep June, (n o t s u r p r is in g ) o f s a le s to u p th a t h e c tic p a c e a c c o u n t f o r th e h e a v y accum u la tio n . F e a r s h a v e b e e n m o u n t in g in c e r t a in q u a r t e r s th a t June th is h ig h le v e l o f in v e n t o r ie s r e la tiv e to s a le s , w h ic h are 1 9 5 0 . R a d io s , p h o n o g r a p h s , te le v is io n se ts , lin o le u m , a n d c o n s id e r a b ly le s s th a n th e e x p e c t a t io n s o f s i x m o n t h s a g o , h o u s e fu r n is h in g s de m ig h t le a d to m a s s liq u id a tio n a t t e m p t s o n th e p a r t o f r e c lin e s . C u m u la t iv e s i x m o n t h s s a le s o f th e s e it e m s , h o w ta ile r s w ith p o s s ib le a d v e r s e e f f e c t s u p o n th e le v e l o f in g e n e r a lly have u n dergon e s im ila r i ' w e l f t h D is t r ic t D e p a r t m e n t S to r e S a l e s b y D e p a r t m e n t s P ercent change over corresponding 1950 period (identical sample of 43 stores) Department GRAND TO TAL (M A IN STORE A N D B A S E M E N T ) ...................... M A I N S T O R E T O T A L ................................................................................................ P I E C E G O O D S A N D H O U S E H O L D T E X T I L E S .................................. January + 34 February March 4-12 + + 36 45 4-13 + 18 + 7 4- 8 0 April — 5 May June + 3 + 3 — 5 + 3 0 + + 3 4 + 8 4- 9 + 14 January-June S M A L L W A R E S ............................................................................................................ W O M E N ’ S A N D M I S S E S ’ R E A D Y -T O - W E A R A C C E S S O R I E S . + 14 4- 3 + 4 + 6 — 3 + 4 + 5 + 5 + 28 4- 7 + 11 — 12 + 3 + 4 + W O M E N ’ S A N D M I S S E S ’ R E A D Y -T O - W E A R A P P A R E L ............ + 24 + — 9 + 6 + 6 6 + + + + + + + -f 444- 31 66 50 78 35 78 89 25 42 18 19 + 10 — 16 + + + + + + — — 10 12 6 12 19 29 15 + 14 4- 3 0 0 — 10 + 4 — 9 — 9 7 0 + M E N ’ S A N D B O Y S ’ W E A R .................................................................................... 4- 5 4-10 — — — — — — — 1 1 4 2 11 6 24 + 1 + + — 5 6 1 H O M E F U R N I S H I N G S .............................................................................................. Furniture and bedding................................................................................................ Mattresses, springs, and studio bed s.............................................................. Upholstered and other furniture........................................................................ R ugs and carpets....................................................................................................... Linoleum ...................................................................................................................... Draperies, curtains, upholstery, awnings, and window shades............... Lamps and shades................................................................................... M ajor 4-33 4-21 + 34 + 15 + 37 + 36 + 13 4-15 + 9 + 11 5 2 Pianos, records, sheet music, instruments, and accessories................. Homefurnishings not reported separately....................................................... M IS C E L L A N E O U S M E R C H A N D IS E BASEM ENT D E P A R T M E N T S ................. S T O R E T O T A L ............................................................................... — 37 4- 2 __ 2 5 19 15 17 12 23 27 9 12 7 6 4- 6 4- 4-130 4- 78 4- 40 + 88 + 40 + 16 + 21 + 5 + 7 0 + 17 + 16 — 13 + 4 + 14 — 24 + 11 4- 9 + 28 + 23 + 16 4 - 97 4 -109 4 - 48 4- 58 + + + + 32 35 21 37 + 18 + 20 + 11 + 12 + 18 — 9 + 34 + 10 + 8 + 19 + 15 — 1 — 4 + 10 + 6 +27 +30 + 16 +23 4- 19 4- 21 4- 5 + 6 4-11 4- 3 — 14 + 3 + 2 — + 1 + 5 + + household appliances (refrigerators, washers, stoves, Housewares (pots, pans, cutlery, toasters, percolators)........................... Gift shop ........................................................................................................................... Radios, phonographs, television, pianos, records, sheet music, instruments, accessories ....................................................................................... 4- 9 + 10 + 10 + 24 4-21 — 1 + 16 + 13 + + + + + + + — + + + 4- 6 7 6 — 2 3 5 - August 1951 57 M O N T H L Y REVIEW I N D E X E S O F D E P A R T M E N T S T O R E S A L E S A N D S T O C K S , 1950-51 Adjusted for seasonal variation, 1935-39 = 100 P e rce n t s t a r t o f th e w a r in K o r e a , e x c e p t f o r a b r ie f in t e r r u p t i o n in J a n u a r y a n d F ebru ary, and in J u n e w e r e 15 p ercen t a h e a d o f J u n e a y e a r a g o . T h e t r e n d in r e ta il s a le s , m e a n w h ile , a fte r th e tw o m a jo r b u y in g w a v e s , a p p e a rs to b e d e c lin in g . R i s i n g p e r s o n a l in c o m e s a r e n o r m a lly r e fle c te d in r is in g r e ta il s a le s , a lt h o u g h th e r is e in s a le s m i g h t b e e x p e c t e d t o b e s o m e w Th a t l e s s t h a n t h e r i s e i n i n c o m e s . I t is s ig n i fic a n t t h a t in s id e r a b le th e th e p e r io d p a rt o f th e a d d itio n of new u n d e r d is c u s s io n in c r e a s e in in c o m e s w orkers to p a y r o lls , a con r e s u lt e d w h ic h fr o m w o u ld te n d to h a v e a g r e a te r e ffe c t o n s a le s th a n a d d e d in c o m e p a id to th o se a lr e a d y e m p lo y e d . e m p lo y m e n t in th e U n i t e d T o ta l n o n a g r ic u lt u r a l S t a t e s in J u n e w a s a lm o s t 6 p e rc e n t a h e a d o f th e sa m e m o n th a y e a r a g o . A num ber of fa c to r s have c o m b in e d to produce th is s itu a tio n , fa c t o r s th a t w ill a ls o h a v e a n im p o r t a n t b e a r in g o n th e t r e n d o f s a le s d u r in g th e s e c o n d h a lf o f th e y e a r . T h e v e r y h ig h le v e l o f s a le s in th e p a s t y e a r a n d a h a lf, c o m e s a n d e m p l o y m e n t . T h r o u g h t h e e a r ly w e e k s in A u g p a r tic u la r ly d u r in g th e tw o m a jo r scare b u y in g w aves, u s t, h o w e v e r , th e s e fe a r s h a v e n o t b e e n r e a liz e d . N u m e r has ous s a le s o ffe r in g s w ith fa ir ly s u b s ta n tia l p r ic e le ft m any con su m ers p r e tty w e ll sto ck ed up on a red u c fa ir ly w id e r a n g e o f c o m m o d it ie s . T h e r e c o r d le v e l o f c o n tio n s r e c e n t m o n t h s , p a r tic u la r ly in th e fu r n itu r e tr a d e , b u t n o in d ic a tio n s h a v e a p p e a r e d have been n o te d in of s u m e r s a v in g s d u r in g th e s e c o n d q u a r te r o f th is y e a r in d ic a te s th a t m a n y c o n s u m e r s a r e a tte m p tin g to r e a d ju s t a m a s s liq u id a tio n a t t e m p t o n th e p a r t o f r e ta ile r s g e n e r th e ir liq u id ity a n d d e b t p o s itio n s . U n t i l s u c h t im e a s th e s e a l l y . I t is a l s o s i g n i f ic a n t t h a t t h e p r i c e w a r i n it ia t e d b y p o s itio n s a r e r e a d ju s te d th e S u prem e C o u r t d e c is io n o r so m e m a jo r e v e n t o c c u r s to r e la tin g to fa ir tr a d e p r a c c h a n g e th e ir c u r r e n t e x p e c ta tio n s o f fu tu r e tr e n d s , m a n y tic e s w a s v e r y s h o r t -liv e d a n d c o n fin e d f o r th e m o s t p a r t o f t h e s e c o n s u m e r s w ill p r o b a b ly n o t e n te r th e r e ta il m a r to a s m a ll n u m b e r o f N e w Y ork C ity d e p a r tm e n t s to r e s, k e ts a s s t r o n g b u y e r s . C o n t in u e d h ig h a v a ila b ility o f a ll r e a c h in g o n ly v e r y m in o r p r o p o r t io n s in th e T w e l f t h D i s t y p e s o f g o o d s a n d s ig n s o f w e a k n e s s in s o m e p r ic e s a r e tr ic t a n d e ls e w h e r e in th e n a tio n . T h i s w o u ld s e e m to in d ic a te n o o v e r w h e lm in g d e s ir e o n th e p a r t o f r e ta ile r s to s ta r t u n lo a d in g w h a t a p p e a r to b e h e a v y in v e n to r ie s . T h e p r o d u c tio n of som e m a jo r d u r a b le s , n o ta b ly te le v is io n , h a s b e e n c u t b a c k r e c e n t ly a s a r e s u lt o f m a t e r ia ls s h o r t a g e s . T h e r e is c o n s id e r a b le e v i d e n c e t o s u g g e s t t h a t e v e n if m a t e r ia ls sh o r ta g e s c u r r e n t s a le s a n d had not in v e n to ry d e v e lo p e d tren d s in th ese lin e s , m ig h t w e ll h a v e ne c e s s ita te d su c h a m o v e in d e p e n d e n tly . C o n g r e s s io n a l a c t io n in th e e a r ly p a r t o f A u g u s t s e e m s b e m a te r ia lly a ffe c te d by any su c c e ssfu l t a ile r s s u c c e ssfu l is n o t n e g o tia tio n s p r o m o tio n a l have in d u c e d s a le s som e h e ld bu yers by in to som e re th e m a r k e t b e r o f c o n s u m e r s a r e e x p e c t in g a b r e a k in p r ic e s a n d a r e h o ld in g b a c k o n c u r r e n t p u r c h a s e s to ta k e a d v a n t a g e o f lo w e r p r ic e s la te r . S a le s h a v e r e s p o n d e d in s o m e d e g r e e to th e r e la x a tio n of o f th e G overn ors te rm s on of A u gu st R e g u la tio n 1, as W r e q u ir e d by th e by th e a m e n d m e n ts to th e D e fe n s e P r o d u c tio n A c t . P e r h a p s th e e ffe c t s o f th is r e la x a t io n , w h ic h w ill in c r e a s e th e d iffic u lty o f a d m in is te r in g a c r e d it c o n tr o l p r o g r a m , w ill b e c o m e in K o r e a . A p p r o p r i a t io n s f o r th e la r g e s t m ilit a r y b u d g e t m o r e e v id e n t in th e f u t u r e s h o u ld in o u r p e a c e t im e h i s t o r y a n d f o r t h e la r g e s t m ili t a r y c o n r e a s s e r t t h e m s e lv e s a g a in . str u c tio n p r o g r a m r e c e n tly back f o r g o o d s , a n d it m i g h t w e ll b e th a t a c o n s id e r a b le n u m B oard to in d ic a te th a t th e d e fe n s e p r o c u r e m e n t p r o g r a m to a ls o a d d in g to th e la g in d e m a n d a t th e r e ta il le v e l. T h e in fla tio n a r y p r e s s u r e s in th e n a t i o n ’s h is t o r y , in c lu d in g w a r C u r r e n t le v e ls o f in c o m e a n d e m p lo y m e n t a r e c a p a b le p e r io d s , w ill absorb la r g e a m o u n ts of c r itic a l m a te r ia ls o f s u p p o r t in g a h ig h e r le v e l o f r e ta il s a le s t h a n p r e s e n t ly and la b o r if th e y are a ll t r a n s la t e d in to a c tio n . P resen t le v e ls o f in v e n t o r ie s in th e h a n d s o f w h o le s a le r s a n d re t a ile r s a s w e ll a s m a n u f a c t u r e r s m i g h t w e ll p r o v e to b e a u s e fu l m a r g in w h e n a c tu a l w o r k o n m ilit a r y g o o d s re a c h e s p r e v a ils . T h e c r itic a l q u e s t io n fa c in g th e n a t io n ’ s r e ta ile r s is n o t so m uch v ig o r as w h e n will s a le s r e c o v e r s o m e o f t h e ir f o r m e r th ey w ill d o so. C u r r e n t le v e ls o f in v e n t o r ie s c o u ld w e ll b e c o m e b u r d e n s o m e a s c a r r y in g c h a r g e s a p e a k la te r th is y e a r a n d n e x t . m o u n t a s t im e p r o g r e s s e s . A n y m a s s liq u id a tio n a tte m p t Personal incom es continue to rise as sales in th e n e a r f u t u r e c o u ld w e ll le a d to a c t u a l s h o r t a g e s la te r at retail fall off The u su al r e la tio n s h ip s h o u ld m ilit a r y p r o d u c tio n c u t s ig n ific a n tly in to s u p p lie s b e tw e e n in c o m e s r e c e iv e d by a v a ila b le fo r p u r e ly c iv ilia n in d ic a te s th a t th e b a sic c u r r e n t m ili ta ry a p p a r e n tly b e e n d is t u r b e d , ju d g in g f r o m th e m o v e m e n ts t i o n s t ill f a c i n g t h e n a t i o n ’ s e c o n o m y f o r t h e n e x t y e a r o r in th e t w o s e r ie s in th e p a s t y e a r . P e r s o n a l in c o m e s in th e t w o is o n e o f a n e x c e s s o f e f f e c t i v e d e m a n d o v e r a v a ila b le U n it e d S t a t e s h a v e m o v e d c o n t in u o u s ly u p w a r d s in c e th e s u p p l y in m a n y l in e s o f g o o d s . program p u rp oses. T h e c o n s u m e r s a n d th e a m o u n t s p e n t o n r e ta il p u r c h a s e s h a s u n d e r ly in g s itu a 58 August 1951 FEDERAL RESERVE B A N K OF S A N FRA NC ISCO HARVEST PROSPECTS ast IJ fa ll th e S e cre ta ry o f A g r ic u ltu r e n a tio n ’s fa r m e r s to g o fo o d fo r and our c a lle d upon th e a ll o u t in t h e ir p r o d u c t i o n of fib e r . G r e a t e r p r o d u c tio n , h e s a id , w a s n e e d e d g r o w in g m ilita r y and p o p u la tio n o f fo r e ig n and th e c o u n tr ie s fo o d w ere needs m uch of th e la r g e r . In m a y h e lp t h is p r o b le m . E v e n s o , s o m e s h ift t o le s s in t e n s iv e fa r m in g h a s b e e n e v id e n t. I n a d d itio n , m a c h in e s h a v e c o n tin u e d to r e p la c e la b o r s iv e fa r m in g s k ille d o p e r a tio n s . la b o r n e e d e d to in b o th The o p e ra te a d d it io n , c a r r y o v e r s t o c k s o f s o m e b a s ic f o o d s a n d fib e r s been w e r e s m a lle r t h a n w a s fe lt s a fe in v ie w s titu tio n o f m a c h in e s f o r la b o r . o f th e w o r s e n in g w o r ld p o lit ic a l s it u a t io n . F arm ers cam e and e x te n a v a ila b ility of th e m a c h in e s , h o w e v e r , has a n im p o r ta n t fa c to r h in d e r in g m o r e c o m p le te su b T h e r e la tiv e c a s h in c o m e o f a lte r n a tiv e c r o p s h a s a ls o th ro u g h in e x c e lle n t fa s h io n , p la n tin g b e e n im p o r ta n t to th e fa r m e r . T h is fa c to r h a s te n d e d to th e la r g e s t a g g r e g a t e a c r e a g e to c r o p s o f a n y y e a r s in c e keep 1933. so y b e a n s, to b a c co , a n d Though in te n s iv e lim ite d acreage lo s s e s in som e areas have been a t a h ig h le v e l th e a c r e a g e s dry of such crop s b e a n s. F e r tiliz e r as fla x , s u p p lie s in h e a v y , th e w e a th e r h a s b e e n g e n e r a lly c o o p e r a tiv e . Y ie ld s 1 9 5 1 a r e e x p e c te d to b e 1 0 p e r c e n t a b o v e la st y e a r ’s s u p p e r a c r e w ill b e a s g o o d a s in a n y r e c e n t y e a r , s o th a t to ta l p lie s . p r o d u c tio n g r e a te r . M u c h o f th e c r o p e x p a n s io n c a lle d fo r — p a r tic u of crop s in th e co u n try as a w h o le m ay be s e c o n d o n ly to th e r e c o r d h ig h in 1 9 4 8 . T h is la r g e o v e r -a ll v o lu m e o f a h ig h le v e l o f o u tp u t fo r m o s t m a jo r c r o p s . H a y crop w ill b e la r g e r and th a n la s t y e a r . W i t h c o tto n c r o p w o u ld y ie ld s b e o n ly a v e r a g e , th e s t ill b e t h e b i g g e s t s in c e how ever, in t h e T w e l f t h are c o n s id e r a b ly D is tr ic t— h a s h a d to ta k e p la c e o n le s s p r o d u c tiv e la n d w h ic h r e q u ir e s g r e a te r a p p lic a tio n s o f fe r tiliz e r s . C ro p production in the Twelfth District a A s a r e s u lt o f th e v a r io u s fa c t o r s m e n t io n e d a b o v e , D i s 5 8 p e r c e n t in c r e a s e in a c r e a g e , c o t t o n p r o d u c t io n w ill b e s h a r p ly h ig h e r . S h o u ld r e q u ir e m e n ts , la r ly in c o t t o n o f p r o d u c t io n is th e r e s u lt ric e a r e e x p e c t e d to s e t n e w p r o d u c tio n r e c o r d s . T h e im p o r ta n t c o r n A c tu a l 1951 1 9 3 7 . F r u its tr ic t fa r m e r s p la n tin g s . m ade The m ark ed rem oval of s h ifts acreage in th e ir p a tte rn r e s tr ic tio n s of a llo w e d w ill b e m o r e p le n tifu l b u t f r e s h v e g e t a b le s u p p lie s w ill b e w h e a t fa r m e r s to p la n t la r g e r a c r e a g e s to w in te r w h e a t. s o m e w h a t le s s W i n t e r d a m a g e in th e P a c ific N o r t h w e s t , h o w e v e r , fo r c e d th a n la st y e a r . h e a v y a b a n d o n m e n t a n d th e fin a l o u tt u r n w ill b e le s s th a n Production problem s in F a r m e r s ’ e ffo r ts to m e e t th e g o a ls set b y th e G o v e r n m ent w ere not e n tir e ly u n h am p ered. y e a r ’s p r o d u c tio n , fa r m e r s h a d a fe w In p la n n in g th is m o r e fa c to r s th a n 1 9 5 0 . D is tr ic t s p r in g h a n d , w ill b e o n e -t h ir d drop in th e w in te r w h e a t p r o d u c tio n , o n h ig h e r, m o r e th a n crop . C o tto n u s u a l to c o n s id e r . N o t o n ly w e r e th e y a s k e d to p la n t v e r y ord c r o p s is e x p e c t e d t o r e a c h n e w D is tr ic t t a in s h ift s in th e p a tt e r n o f c r o p p in g . W h i l e a c r e a g e a llo t had r e s tr ic te d p la n tin g s of corn , c o tto n , w h e a t, I n d ic a t e d acreages 1951 r e s u lte d and d iffic u lty . I n th e C o t t o n B e lt , h o w e v e r , w h e r e m a n y f a r m sto ck fo r and s id e r a b le and several y ea rs g r a s s la n d r e lu c ta n c e been c h a n g in g fa r m in g o p e r a tio n , to up over th ere m eadow s and w as con p a stu r e s to co tto n acreages w ere in c r e a s e d , s u g g e s te d and of p la n tin g s su ch A s liv e revert m et p r a c tic e s . a to not in te n s iv e to th o u g h w ere m ore p lo w in te n s iv e a r e s u lt, g o a ls crop s as corn and sorgh u m s w ere reduced. H ig h m ade p r o d u c tio n c o sts c o m b in e d w ith s o m e f a r m e r s h e s ita n t to e x p a n d p r ic e c o n tr o ls o p e r a tio n s . L o w y ie ld s o r c r o p fa ilu r e d u e to a d v e r s e w e a th e r c o n d itio n s h a v e lo n g b e e n o n e o f th e r is k s o f fa r m in g . B u t th e h ig h p r ic e s r e s u ltin g f r o m a s h o r t c r o p h a v e p r o v id e d s o m e in com e in s u r a n c e in th e p a st. P r e s e n t p r ic e c o n tr o ls r u le o u t th e p o s s ib ilit y o f th is c u s h io n . W h ile fa rm la b o r w a s a d e q u a te in m o s t a r e a s f o r th e s p r i n g p la n t i n g s e a s o n , m u c h c o n c e r n d i d , a n d s t ill d o e s , e x i s t c o n c e r n in g th e s u p p ly a t h a r v e s t tim e . T h e r e c e n tly s ig n e d a g r e e m e n t b e tw e e n th e U n ite d S ta te s a n d M e x i c a n G o v e r n m e n t s fo r th e im p o r ta tio n o f M e x i c a n la b o r e r s of th e se C rops- - T w e l f t h 1, 1951 a s k e d fo r g r e a tly e x p a n d e d tr y , s h ift s to th e s e c r o p s c o u ld b e m a d e w ith o u t to o m u c h had p r o d u c tio n P r o d u c t io n of L e a d in g Indicated o u tp u t o f th e s e c r o p s th is y e a r . I n s o m e a r e a s o f th e c o u n ers w ere h ig h s . D is t r ic t a s o f A u g u s t a n d r ic e in 1 9 5 0 , th e U S D A r ic e fa r m e r s a ls o a llo w e d to p la n t a s m u c h a s th e y lik e d th is y e a r . R e c la r g e a c r e a g e s , b u t th e y w e r e a ls o r e q u e s te d to m a k e c e r m en ts and th e o th e r o ffs e ttin g th e 1951 production Field and seed crops (in thousands) ......... 77,029 ......... 7,221 Beans, dry (bags) ............. Corn (bu.) ......................... Cotton (bales) ................... Flaxseed (bu.) ................. Sorghums, grain (bu.) . . . ......... Hay, all (tons) ................. .......... Hops (lbs.) ....................... . . , Oats (bu.) ......................... .......... Peas, dry (bags) .............. ......... Potatoes (bu.) ................................. Rice (bags) ....................... . . , , Wheat, all (bu.) ............... Fruits Apples (bu.) ..................... Cherries (tons) ................. Grapes (tons) ................... Grapefruit1 (boxes) .......... Oranges1 (boxes) ............. Lemons1 (boxes) ............... Peaches (bu.) ..................... Pears (bu.) ......................... Plums (tons) ..................... Prunes, fresh (tons) .......... 1,742 4,801 13,818 60,323 27,723 3,483 9,703 , , 4,126 .......... 156,579 , .......... 72 3,090 5,870 .......... ......... . . . . .......... 35,056 25,457 97 89 181 .......... .......... 9 74 . , Percent change compared with- /— 1951 1940-49 1950 — 27 — 1 — 13 4 -7 7 4- 3 — 47 — 7 4- 3 — 23 4 -2 8 — 22 4 -2 5 — 3 4- 3 average 0 4- 3 — 8 4 -2 1 9 — 54 — 26 — 3 4 - 27 — 14 — 34 42 4 - 46 4- 12 4 - 16 15 — 20 — 22 4 - IB — 4 — 6 0 42 45 4- 24 — 25 — 3 — 25 — 18 — 4 4 -2 6 0 4- 8 4 -1 4 4 -1 6 — 1 4 -2 6 4 -9 8 4 -2 2 — 4 -1 3 4 -2 9 4 -1 6 4 - 72 4 - 29 49 Nuts Filberts (tons) ................... Walnuts (tons) ................. 1Figures are for crop year which begins in October of the previous year. Source : United States Department of Agriculture, Bureau of Agricul* tural Economics, Crop Production , August 1, 1951, August 1951 59 M O N T H L Y R E V IE W A creage s h ifts to th ese im p o r ta n t c a sh c r o p s w ill r e c e n t la r g e r s p r in g p ig in p o ta to e s . F a r m e r s , p a r tic u la r ly th o s e g r o w i n g s u g a r b e e ts and a n d p o ta to e s , w e r e fe a r fu l o f th e re d u c e d la b o r s u p p ly a n d y e a r -a g o tu r n e d to c o m p e tin g c a s h c r o p s u s in g le s s la b o r . T h e lu r e e q u a l th a t o f th e la s t h a lf o f 1 9 5 0 . o f g r e a te r red uce cash in c o m e th e ir a c r e a g e s co u n try as a cau sed in w h o le . D is tr ic t hay c o n tra st to th e S in c e th e grow ers in c r e a s e D is tr ic t has in to S e p te m b e r. flo c k s , In W ith c r o p w ill s ta r t c o m in g s u lt in s m a lle r c r o p s o f s u g a r b e e ts , fe e d g r a in s , h a y , a n d veal le v e ls , a d d itio n ran chers and la m b w h ile s t ill b u ild in g o u tp u t c a ttle w ill s la u g h te r to m a r k e t th e ir c o n tin u e m ay h erds b e lo w ju s t about to s o m e w h a t la r g e r s u p p lie s o f r e d m e a t, th e c o n s u m e r s w ill fin d w h it e m e a t m o r e p le n tifu l d u r in g th e r e la tiv e ly r e s t o f th e y e a r . T u r k e y p r o d u c tio n w ill b e s lig h t ly a b o v e fe w e r liv e s to c k -p a s tu r e o p e r a tio n s th a n s o m e o th e r p a r ts la s t y e a r ’s o u tp u t a n d o f th e c o u n t r y , fa r m e r s w e r e le s s r e lu c ta n t to c h a n g e o v e r w ill p u s h th is y e a r f r o m E v e n t h o u g h th e n u m b e r o f y o u n g c h ic k e n s o n fa r m s h a s h a y to m o r e p r o fita b le c a s h c r o p s . W e a t h e r a g a in w a s t h e d e t e r m in i n g f a c t o r in th e o u t p u t o f d e c id u o u s fr e e z in g fr u its . te m p e r a tu re s For th e second dam aged fr u its year in in in c r e a s in g record m eat th is b r o ile r c h ic k s u p p lie s year, th e over th e in c r e a s e r e p la c e m e n t 1950 w ill v o lu m e . not be re row , fle c te d in th e la y in g flo c k s u n til th e e n d o f th e y e a r . U n t i l P a c ific th a t tim e , e g g p r o d u c tio n w ill r u n u n d e r y e a r -a g o le v e ls . a th e been c h ic k e n N o r t h w e s t . T h e s w e e t c h e r r y a n d a p p le c r o p s in O r e g o n an d W a s h in g to n s u ffe r e d th e h e a v ie st d a m a g e a n d w ill F a r m prices h i g h , b u t declining B e t w e e n J u n e 1 5 a n d J u ly 1 5 , a v e r a g e p r ic e s r e c e iv e d b e s m a lle r th a n th e 1 9 5 0 c r o p s . T h o u g h m o s t o th e r fr u it c r o p s in O r e g o n , W a s h i n g t o n , a n d th e r e la tiv e ly s m a ll p r o d u c tio n Id a h o w ill b e a b o v e o f la s t y e a r , h a r v e s t w ill b y fa r m e r s d e c r e a s e d f o r th e fifth c o n s e c u tiv e m o n t h . T h e sh arp p o s t-K o r e a b e b e lo w a v e r a g e . F r u i t p r o s p e c t s in C a li f o r n ia v a r y f r o m crop , an d fa ir g in n in g to good w ith som e d e tr im e n ta l e ffe c ts due to th e p r ic e in M arch , s h o r te r th a n u su a l d o r m a n t p e r io d s th r o u g h th e w in te r . dow n w ard The p r ic e c o n tr o ls , a n d a p r ic o t a n d sw eet ch erry crop s w ere m u ch s m a lle r rise pu sh ed m e a t a n im a l p r ic e s to under how ever, th e co tto n , new m ost p ressu re fa r m of th e e x p e c te d s la c k e n in g D e s p it e th e r e c e n t d e c r e a s e s , a lm o s t a ll fa r m p r ic e s a r e s t ill a b o v e y e a r -a g o le v e ls . le v e ls , a n d th e im p o r t a n t g r a p e c r o p w ill b e o f r e c o r d p r o p o r t io n s . dem and, c o m m o d ity T h e e ffe c ts o f th e a m e n d e d D e fe n s e P r o d u c tio n A c t o n G e n e r a lly la r g e r s u p p lie s o f c itr u s fr u it s w ill b e a v a il fa rm p r ic e s in th e m o n t h s to c o m e p r o b a b ly w ill n o t b e a b le in th e D is t r i c t d u r in g th e r e s t o f 1 9 5 1 . T h o u g h C a li so fo r n ia ’s N a v e l c r o p w a s s m a lle r th is y e a r , th e 1 5 p e r c e n t F u rth e r la r g e r c e ilin g s o n v e a l c a lv e s , la m b , w o o l, a n d c o t t o n V a le n c ia p r o d u c tio n w ill m ake th e to ta l oran ge c r o p h ig h e r th a n la s t y e a r . L e m o n s h a v e a ls o b e e n m o r e p le n tifu l th is y e a r , w h ile s u p p lie s o f g r a p e fr u it h a v e b e e n r u n n in g a t a b o u t 1 9 5 0 le v e ls . la s t y e a r . A c c o r d i n g ta k in g s of and A g r ic u ltu r e , a la r g e r as beef th e p r ic e e ffe c ts of r o ll-b a c k s th e are p r ic e su p port p r o h ib ite d , le v e l. but p r ic e c o u ld b e lo w e r e d t h o u g h n o r e d u c t io n is c o n t e m p la t e d a t p r e s e n t . O n th e o th e r h a n d , p r ic e s o f m o s t fa r m in g s . W i t h M e a t p r o d u c tio n so fa r th is y e a r h a s b e e n r u n n in g th e sam e as im p o r ta n t p r o d u c ts c o u ld in c r e a s e c o n s id e r a b ly b e fo r e t h e y r e a c h e d m in im u m M o r e m e a t in sight p a r tm e n t B e sta rte d in c r e a s e in p r o d u c tio n . tio n 1950 h ig h s . p r ic e s th a n la s t y e a r , b u t a p p le , p lu m , p r u n e , a n d p e a c h p r o d u c w ill b e a b o v e w o o l, tr u c k reco rd to th e U n ite d h ow ever, p o p u la tio n S ta te s in c r e a se d have r e s u lt e d D e m ilita r y in d u c tio n th e m any e x p e cte d h ig h le v e l c e il o f a g r ic u lt u r a l p r o f a r m e r s , h o w e v e r , w ill p r o b a b ly be m ore i n t e r e s t e d in t h e f l o o r i m p o s e d b y p r i c e s u p p o r t s t h a n in th e c e ilin g s e t u p u n d e r th e D e f e n s e P r o d u c tio n A c t . I n c r e a s e d m a r k e t in g s o f r a n g e -fe d c a ttle b e g in n in g th is lo w e r p e r c a p ita c iv ilia n c o n s u m p t io n . N a t io n a lly , b e e f p r o d u c su m m er tio n fr o m g r a d e s o f b e e f. P o r k p r ic e s w ill lik e w is e c o m e u n d e r p r e s J a n u a r y to J u n e w a s d o w n m o d e r a te ly b u t th e w ill o u tp u t o f v e a l, m u t t o n , a n d la m b w a s c o n s id e r a b ly lo w e r . sure s ta r tin g O n ly p o r k p r o d u c tio n in c re a se d . crop b e g in s D u r in g th e la tte r h a lf o f 1951, m e a t p r o d u c tio n and put in p ressu re S e p te m b e r h ittin g y e a r , p r ic e s th e of m ost on th e w hen m a rk et. fa ts and p r ic e s th e th e la r g e r D u r in g o ils of are lo w e r sp r in g th e p ig re st o f th e lik e ly to average p e r c a p ita c o n s u m p t io n w ill p r o b a b ly b e a b o v e 1 9 5 0 le v e ls , lo w e r th a n o w in g e n tir e ly to in c r e a s e d p o r k p r o d u c tio n . T h e 7 p e r T h e fo r e c a s t o f a h u g e c o tto n c r o p h a s a lr e a d y h a d p r ic e - a year ago b e c a u se o f in c r e a s e d p r o d u c tio n . L 1 V E S T O C K S L A U G H T E R * — T W E L F T H D IS T R IC T , 1950 and 1951 (in millions of pounds) 30 CATTLE 1)0 CALVES 25 100 26 HOGS SH EEP A N D LA M BS 24- A A • A / '\ J 9 S 0 yf \ \ 20 90 ............ . 1 \ . . . . ,9 5 ° 80 \ 70 \/- S \\ :\ M / ¥ y / ’ 951 V; 10 if V ___ 1 . 1 ... I - 1 > 1 I „ 1 .. 1 - l — ,.J-..-V O J F M A M J J A S O N f c > 22 \\ 15 :\ — 20 IQSl . / \ ^ 18 / / . . 1950/ 5 0 — . r5 J 60 F . Í . . . . . . 1 M A M J J . A . 1 . . S O N D 50 - ___ 1—--- L..... 1 Pt 1 P Jut •’*' / '' ** '*•• / / X\ / / 16 y \ . / Z I A , Jut 1 _. 1 L > » A 1 C Kl ^ r 14 r\ f -e Si a ii i i a c r\ m * Slaughter in Federally inspected plants and in other wholesale and retail plants: excludes farm slaughter. Source: United States Department of Agricul ture, Bureau of Agricultural Economics, Livestock Slaughter b y States . 60 August 1951 FEDERAL RESERVE B A N K OF S A N FR A N C ISCO I N D E X E S O F P R IC E S R E C E I V E D B Y F A R M E R S - U N IT E D STATES, 1948-51* (1910-14=100) Percent 475 400 325 /V ^ C o fto n J y \ J \*** \ \ A V^v 1 I I lLll I.U 1.1, I 11 li.l.L 1948 1949 k).l.1 u l . l l l l 1943 i-Li-UJ 1951 250 \ Fruit I / ’ li / ; >*'v V \ / 175 Truick crops'^ tu.Lu.ii d.i I 11111111111 I 1! 1II 1I! ! II ■1.L11.1■If 100 ü.ij.,,1 Li 1.j 1 1 1 1 1 111 i . d u L u L u 1950 1949 1950 1951 *M id-m onthly data. Source: United States Department of Agriculture, Bureau of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural Prices. d e p r e s s in g have fifth d r o p p e d to 3 4 c e n ts c o m p a r e d w ith th e 4 5 c e n ts fa r m e r s e ffe c ts; b o th w e r e g e t t in g la s t w in t e r . N o t a ll f a r m c o m m o d it y p r ic e s th o u gh are but T h e in c r e a s e in liv e s t o c k m a r k e t in g s w ill n o t b e s o g r e a t ex p e cte d to p r ic e s c o n tin u e of new crop dow n w ard, co tto n th e g e n e r a lly m ore crop s th e over and th e n a tio n th a n liv e s to c k p ro sp e cts fo r w ill in 1950. be R e c e ip ts c o n s id e r a b ly liv e s to c k are m ore fro m h ig h e r , fa v o r a b le . g r e a te r v o lu m e o f o v e r -a ll p r o d u c tio n s h o u ld a t le a s t a c t as to d a m p e n a n y p r ic e in c r e a s e s w h ic h m a y o c c u r . r e la tiv e to 1 9 5 0 a r e e x p e c t e d to a v e r a g e h ig h e r th a n c r o p T h e y e a r 1 9 5 1 m a y g o d o w n in h is t o r y a s th e b e s t y e a r fo r th e The record n a tio n ’s fa r m e r s fa r m in c o m e in c r e a s e in crop m a r k e tin g s in term s ex p e cte d w ill of to ta l be due Cash R e c e ip t s F r o m m ore F arm h ig h e r th a n th e 1950 average. a r e s u lt , n e t in c o m e s m a y b e u p a s m u c h as 3 0 percent over 1950. C ash r e c e ip ts sou rce of g ro ss fr o m fa rm fa r m m a r k e tin g s , th e in c o m e , a re e x p e c te d Arizona . . California to Crops + 29 + 21 + 7 +60 — >27 + 8 — 4 Oregon .............................................. U t a h ..................................................... Washington .................................... .. . , .. .. .. .. +24 +29 +33 +27 +30 +23 Twelfth D is t r ic t........................ .. +25 + 14 United S t a t e s ............................. . , +29 — P r o d u c tio n c o s ts , o f c o u r s e , h a v e r is e n to o b u t n o t s o m u c h a s to ta l in c o m e . A s p r ic e s M a r k e t i n g s - -J a n u a r y - M a y Livestock and livestock products to v o lu m e o f p r o d u c tio n . S o fa r th is y e a r , p r ic e s h a v e b e e n percent liv e s to c k P ercent ch an ge, 1950-51 in c o m e . th e g e n e r a lly h ig h e r p r ic e le v e l th is y e a r th a n to th e h ig h 20 but p r ic e s. R ecord farm incom e expected ever th e Total + 25 + 23 + 18 + 36 + 5 + 26 + 10 + 20 3 + 18 p r in c ip a l to ta l o n e - Source : United States Department of Agriculture, Bureau of Agricultural Economics, Farm Income Situation, June 1951. CONSUMER CREDIT BN THE TWELFTH DISTRICT Avariety o f fa c ts a b o u t in s ta lm e n t c r e d it e x te n d e d to la s t y e a r w a s u s e d to fin a n c e a u to m o b ile s . N e a r l y t h r e e - D is t r ic t c o n s u m e r s h a s b e c o m e a v a ila b le a s fo u r th s T w e lfth a b y -p r o d u c t and of th e c r e d it-g r a n tin g re g is tr a tio n in s titu tio n s le n d in g o r ig in a te d w ith th e a u to m o b ile F in a n c in g o f o th e r re ta il p u r c h a s e s s u c h a s fu r n it u r e a n d tio n s h o ld in g a b o u t $ 1 Vi b illio n in in s t a lm e n t p a p e r p r o r e s e n te d b y a u to m o b ile fin a n c in g , o r r o u g h ly o n e -f o u r t h fro m v id e v a lu a b le in fo r m a tio n D is tr ic t W . th is a p p lia n c e s a c c o u n te d f o r o n ly a b o u t h a lf t h e v o lu m e r e p r e c e iv e d R e g u la tio n of d e a le r s , w h o th e n s o ld th e p a p e r to b a n k s o r o t h e r le n d e r s . The rep o rts under le n d in g fin a n c ia l o r g a n iz a 1 ,9 7 0 r e ta ile r s of c o n c e r n in g th e d is tr ib u tio n of o f th e to ta l. H e r e a g a in a la r g e p o r tio n o f th e p a p e r w a s c o n s u m e r lo a n s o u ts ta n d in g la st S e p te m b e r 3 0 a t th e p e a k a c q u ir e d b y th e le n d in g in s titu tio n s f r o m o f th e m a d e th e s a le s . P e r s o n a l in s t a lm e n t c a s h lo a n s a n d r e p a ir th e 12 1 9 5 0 c r e d it b o o m . m o n th s a lm o s t 9 ,0 0 0 ended T w e lfth S a le s a n d c r e d it d a ta c o v e r in g S e p te m b e r 30, 1950, D is tr ic t s to r e s w ith rep o rted by and m o d e r n iz a tio n lo a n s , a lm o s t a ll of th e sto r e s th a t th e m ex te n d e d s a le s o f m o r e d ir e c tly b y le n d in g in s titu tio n s , m a d e u p th e r e m a in d e r o f t h a n $ 3 Vi b illio n u n d e r lin e t h e s ig n ific a n c e o f c o n s u m e r th e c o n s u m e r c r e d it p o r tfo lio o f T w e lf t h D is t r ic t le n d e r s . c r e d i t in t h e d u r a b l e g o o d s f ie ld . M o r e th a n t h r e e -fo u r t h s o f th e in s t a lm e n t p a p e r o w n e d Instalment lend ing by financial institutions by T h e m o s t im p o r ta n t p u r p o s e fo r w h ic h c o n s u m e r s b o r row fro m le n d in g in s titu tio n s in th e T w e lfth F ederal R e s e r v e D i s t r i c t is t h e p u r c h a s e o f a u t o m o b i le s . A l m o s t h a lf o f a ll t h e m o n e y le n t t o c o n s u m e r s b y b a n k s a n d o t h e r le n d e r s in th e D is t r ic t a t th e h e ig h t o f th e b u y in g s p r e e le n d e r s w as h e ld by T w e lfth D is tr ic t c o m m e r c ia l b a n k s .1 A u t o m o b i l e lo a n s a c c o u n t e d f o r 5 1 p e r c e n t o f th e 1 It should be noted, however, that paper retained by retailers was not in cluded in the survey of instalment lenders, and that lenders operating in more than one District reported consolidated figures to the Federal R e serve bank in their home office District, and hence figures from those lenders with home offices outside this District are not reflected in Twelfth District tabulations. August 1951 P e r c e n t a g e D i s t r i b u t i o n o f t h e D o l l a r V o l u m e of I n s t a l m ent 61 M O N T H L Y REVIEW P a p e r b y T y p e o f C r e d it a n d O r i g i n of P a p e r - T w e l f t h D is t r ic t , a l l T y p e s of L e n d e r C o m b in e d S eptem ber Purpose of loan 32 9 18 1 40 57 35 7 1 100 Total— all purposes of r e ta il 30, 1950 th e d o lla r in s ta lm e n t v o lu m e c r e d it of 43 th e ir o u ts ta n d in g s , p e rcen t, and o th e r p erson al cash lo a n s 3 1 p e r c e n t. H a l f th e ir lo a n s o n a u to m o b ile s a n d o n Distribution by —type of credit— Purchased paper Total Direct Retail automobile credit.......... Other retail instal. c r e d i t .... F H A repair and mod. credit. . Other repair and mod. credit. . Personal instal. cash loans. . . S m a ll lo a n c o m p a n ie s r e p o r te d a u to lo a n s to b e 2 6 p e r cent Origin ;----- of paper----- ^ PurDirect chased 47 24 11 1 17 28 15 66 55 99 72 85 34 45 1 100 42 58 o th e r c o n s u m e r g o o d s w e r e e x te n d e d d ir e c tly to th e b o r row er. lo a n s In e ffe c t m a n y secu red read y by p ossessed com pany, secu red th e in o f th e se w e r e a u to m o b ile s a n d by th e g r e a te r th is w ay, borrow ers. w as th e d o u b tle s s h o u s e h o ld The la r g e r p r o p o r tio n p a r tic u la r ly by person al goods th e of goods its a l lo a n lo a n s o th e r th a n a u to m o b ile s ; th e s m a lle r fir m s ’ h o ld in g s w e r e c h ie fly u n *Less than one-half of 1 percent. se c u r e d p e r s o n a l in s ta lm e n t c a s h lo a n s . d o lla r v o lu m e of con su m er c r e d it o u ts ta n d in g at th e se H a lf th e d o lla r v o lu m e of th e paper ow ned by in s titu tio n s , o th e r r e ta il in s t a lm e n t c r e d it 2 3 p e r c e n t, a n d fin a n c e c o m p a n ie s w i t h h e a d o ffic e s in t h e T w e l f t h p e r s o n a l in s t a lm e n t c a s h lo a n s 1 2 p e r c e n t. F H A -i n s u r e d tr ic t a r o s e f r o m r e p a ir and ex w a s o th e r r e ta il in s t a lm e n t c r e d it. A s m ig h t b e e x p e c t e d , a l m o s t a ll t h e i r r e t a il i n s t a l m e n t c r e d i t w a s e x t e n d e d i n paper lo a n s , w as A n a ly s is of of b a n k s — i .e ., w h ile o th e r n e g lig ib le h o ld in g s th o se c r e d it— t w o -t h ir d s by w ith r e p a ir im p o r ta n c e s iz e and to in d ic a te s g r e a te r of it D is p ercen t te n d e d d ir e c tly b y th e b a n k s — m a d e u p 1 4 p e r c e n t o f th e ir con su m er m o d e r n iz a tio n th e s a le o f a u t o m o b ile s , a n d 3 1 s a le s m o d e r n iz a tio n bank th a t h o ld in g s of p o r tfo lio s . th e la r g e r con su m er lo a n s — te n d e d to h a v e a h ig h e r p r o p o r tio n o f F H A in s ta lm e n t cash lo a n s . W a s h in g to n and th e P erson al fin a n c e paper cash b e in g lo a n s c o m p a n ie s ’ p u rch ased m ade up c o m b in e d fr o m o n ly 10 th e r e ta ile r s . percen t p o r tfo lio s , and of th e fo r m ost o f th em very fir m s a c c o u n te d fo r a b o u t 5 p e r c e n t. r e p a ir a n d m o d e r n iz a tio n p a p e r a n d a s m a lle r p r o p o r tio n o f p e r son al d ir e c tly , O regon b a n k s o w n e d a g r e a te r s h a r e o f a u to lo a n s a n d a s m a lle r A la r g e s m a ll, cash num ber w as o f c r e d it u n io n s , m o s t in c lu d e d lo a n s m a d e up th e 55 p e r c e n t o f th e d o lla r a m o u n t o f c r e d it 35 in s ta lm e n t r e p a ir a n d o t h e r r e ta il c r e d it 7 p e r c e n t . T h r e e p e r c e n t w a s f o r r e p a ir m o s t i m p o r t a n t in a u to m o b ile P erson al th e ir paper w as r e ta il su rv ey. s h a r e o f p e r s o n a l c a s h lo a n s th a n C a lifo r n ia b a n k s . F I T A m o d e r n iz a tio n h o ld in g s , in percent and U t a h , w h e r e it a c c o u n t e d f o r 3 0 p e r c e n t o f b a n k s ’ i n s t a l a n d m o d e r n iz a tio n — n o t F H A m en t paper. th e s m a ll lo a n c o m p a n ie s , th e lo a n s o f th e la r g e r o r g a n i in s u r e d . A s in th e c a s e o f z a tio n s w e r e m o r e o ft e n s e c u r e d b y a u to m o b ile s o r o th e r P e r c e n t a g e D i s t r i b u t i o n b y P u r p o s e of t h e D o l l a r V o l u m e of g o o d s . P r o b a b ly th e s m a lle r c r e d it u n io n s la c k e d th e r e T o t a l I n s t a l m e n t P a p e r — T w e l f t h D is t r ic t a n d S elected S t a t e s , S e p t e m b e r Num- Retail ber of autofirms mobile reptg. credit Glassifiation Commercial banks Twelfth District total. ,. . 388 153 California ..................... Idaho .............................. , 35 Oregon .......................... , . 55 U t a h ................................. , 35 Washington ................., . 95 51 51 46 53 43 57 s o u r c e s to e n g a g e in a u t o m o b ile fin a n c in g , a n d c o n fin e d 30, 1950 PerRepair sonal and modern- instalOther ization ment Totalretail <---- credit---- N cash all pur credit F H A Other loans poses * 12 23 14 100 * 100 22 14 13 * 27 19 100 8 26 19 20 13 30 15 * 1 * 8 7 8 100 100 100 Small loan companies 26 48 25 46 25 21 12 43 17 49 19 8 6 17 35 27 36 21 33 23 36 7 3 7 13 6 8 9 In d u s tr ia l q u ite lo a n e v e n ly c o m p a n ie s am ong a u to rep o rted lo a n s , h o ld in g s o th e r r e ta il d iv id e d in s ta lm e n t c r e d it, a n d p e r s o n a l lo a n s . B u i ld in g a n d lo a n a s s o c ia t io n s lis te d no r e ta il c r e d it b u t a fa ir ly s u b sta n tia l v o lu m e 50 54 76 64 70 77 31 29 15 33 29 15 * * 31 35 26 35 67 73 71 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 0 0 * 3 3 3 7 3 1 6 55 67 54 59 58 68 49 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 1 * 1 0 0 4 8 * * * * * 10 17 8 3 1 4 100 100 100 100 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 Ü 0 0 * 0 0 0 r e p a ir and pu rch a sed m o d e r n iz a tio n p r e s u m a b ly c r e d it— o n e -t h ir d fr o m Twelfth District to ta l.. 872 Arizona .......................... 16 California ......................, . 534 Idaho ............................. , 30 Oregon .......................... 65 Utah ............................... . 58 W ashington ................. . 159 w 0 * * of . 185 . 86 . 14 . 31 , 30 *Less than one-half of 1 percent. N o te : Twelfth District figures are not necessarily consistent with those for component states, since the latter exclude firms operating in more than one state in the District. Also, Arizona and Nevada have been omitted from certain classifications to avoid possible disclosure of individual firm data. it p a p e r fo r P e r c e n t a g e D i s t r i b u t i o n of t h e D o l l a r V o l u m e o f T o t a l by T y p e of L e n d e r — T w e l f t h Num ber of firms reptg. Retail auto mobile credit Commercial banks ............ Small loan companies1. . . . Credit u n io n s ........................ Sales finance companies1. . Industrial loan companies. Building and loan assns.. . All other lenders2 ............... 388 294 872 185 37 77 117 84 4 4 5 1 * Total— all lenders............ 1970 Type of lender Sales finance companies of co n tra cto rs— a cc o u n ted I n s t a l m e n t P a p e r O w n e d a s of S e p t e m b e r Credit unions se c u re d b y th e b o r r o w e r s ’ s a la r ie s ; th e g r e a t m a jo r ity o f th e c r e d it u n io n s w e r e e m p lo y e e o r g a n iz a t io n s . p e r s o n a l lo a n s — 5 0 p e r c e n t o f th e ir c o n s u m e r lo a n s . F H A Twelfth District total. .,. 294 22 Arizona .......................... California ...................... . 143 15 Idaho ............................... , 43 Oregon .......................... Utah ............................... Washington ................. 37 Twelfth District total. . California ...................... Idaho ............................... Oregon ........................... Utah ............................... W ashington ................. t h e ir a c tiv itie s to c o m p a r a t iv e ly s m a ll p e r s o n a l c a s h lo a n s 30, 1950, D is t r ic t PerRepair sonal and modern instal Total Other ization ment all retail /---- credit---- N cash pur credit F H A Other loans poses 98 0 * * # 2 72 14 2 6 2 0 4 100 100 24 * 1 1 14 39 * 19 4 56 14 16 3 3 3 5 77 8 5 5 1 1 3 100 100 100 100 *Less than one-half of 1 percent. 1 W ith head office in Twelfth District. 2 Includes industrial banks, mutual savings banks, agents, brokers, and dealers in real estate, mortgage companies, etc. 62 August 1951 FEDERAL RESERVE B A N K OF SAN FRANCISCO Instalm ent S ellers— T w e l f t h Stores /"-retaining all paper-^ Charge Down Stores Percent Instalment receiv- pmts. as f ----selling paper---- \ of receivables ables as $of i n- Percent of Proporinas % of in /---- Percent of total sales 1---- > InstaiCharge % of chg. stalment instalment tion of stalment stalment Cash ment account sales sales sellers2 paper sold sellers2 sales Number of creditgranting stores reporting Type of business Automobile d e a le r s ............................................................ Department and general stores .................................. Furniture and house furnishings stores................... Household appliance stores ......................................... Hardware and automotive accessory stores.......... 30, 1950 D is t r ic t , S e p t e m b e r 4068 329 1661 1958 815 35 47 19 25 44 53 17 58 51 14 12 36 23 24 42 16 17 23 20 19 39 11 17 17 19 95 59 70 ,92 73 93 55 71 90 84 5 41 30 8 27 59 51 57 55 39 a r is in g fr o m 1 Sales during 12 months ended September 30, 1950. 2 Stores making no instalment sales excluded in computing these ratios. 1 8 p e r c e n t, a n d o th e r r e p a ir a n d m o d e r n iz a t io n lo a n s 2 6 d e a le r s , p e rce n t. t im e p a y m e n t s a le s to b a n k s , fin a n c e c o m p a n ie s , o r o th e r Instalm entsellingbyretailers le n d e r s . F o r th e s t o r e s th a t c a r r ie d a ll t h e ir o w n L arge fu r n itu r e and p a y m e n ts, lik e ly to se ll or a p p lia n c e have fa s te r d is c o u n t or d is c o u n te d th e c o n tra cts paper, in s t a lm e n t r e c e iv a b le s o n S e p t e m b e r 3 0 , 1 9 5 0 , a m o u n t e d sto re s m ake r e la tiv e ly m o r e in s t a lm e n t s a le s th a n s m a lle r s to r e s , r e q u ir e lo w e r dow n s o ld th e c o lle c tio n s , in s ta lm e n t wrr i t e . B u t i n s t a l m e n t s a l e s a r e m o r e and are le s s co n tra cts th e y im p o r ta n t to s m a ll to about 50 to 60 percent of annual in s ta lm e n t s a le s . H a r d w a r e s t o r e s , w h ic h t y p ic a lly h a v e a s m a lle r u n it o f s a le a n d p r e s u m a b ly s h o r t e r -t e r m c e p tio n ; th e ir ra tio c h a r g e -a c c o u n t w as co n tra cts, w e re a n e x under 4 0 r e c e iv a b le s to p e rcen t. T h e ch arge s a le s w a s ra tio of b e tw e e n d e p a r t m e n t o r g e n e r a l s t o r e s a n d a u to d e a le r s th a n to b ig 1 5 a n d 2 0 p e r c e n t f o r a ll t y p e s a n a ly z e d e x c e p t f u r n it u r e o n e s — in s t o r e s , w h o s e h ig h e r r a tio m a y r e fle c t th e e x t e n s iv e th e la tte r p a r ts -a n d -s e r v ic e case b ecau se b u s in e s s s m a ll w h ic h d e a le r s b o o sts la c k ch arge th e s a le s . G e o g r a p h ic a l d iffe r e n c e s a r e a ls o s tr ik in g . F o r e x a m p le , i n s t a l m e n t s e l l i n g is m o r e i m p o r t a n t in t h e L o s s a le o f fu r n itu r e o n a 9 0 -d a y o p e n c r e d it b a s is . N ot o n ly w ere in s ta lm e n t s a le s — b y fu r n itu r e , a p p li A n g e le s a n c e , a n d d e p a r t m e n t s t o r e s — r e la t iv e ly h e a v y in th e L o s area th a n in o th e r urb an areas o f th e T w e lfth D is tr ic t, a n d is h e a v i e r in u r b a n t h a n in r u r a l a r e a s g e n e r a l l y . M uch u s e fu l in fo r m a tio n o f th is k in d about th e A n g e le s a re a , b u t d o w n p a y m e n ts w e r e lo w e r a n d te r m s a p p a r e n t ly e a s ie r p re- th e r a tio s of ( f o r t h o s e r e t a ile r s r e t a in in g a ll p a p e r , in s ta lm e n t r e c e iv a b le s to in s ta lm e n t s a le s R e g u la tio n W s a le s a n d c r e d it o p e r a t io n s o f T w e l f t h D i s w e r e h ig h e r th a n in o t h e r a r e a s ) . T h i s w a s tr u e o f s m a ll tr ic t of as r e ta ile r s d u r a b le goods has been g le a n e d fro m th e ir r e g is tr a tio n s ta te m e n ts u n d e r th e r e g u la tio n . I n s t a l m e n t fin a n c in g a c c o u n t e d f o r t h r e e -f if t h s fu r n itu r e th e and b u s in e s s h ou se done fu r n is h in g s by sto re s, a u to m o b ile o f th e s a le s o f m ore d e a le r s , and th a n h a lf h a lf th e w e ll a s fo r n ia o f la r g e rep o rted a Los a la r g e r p e rce n ta g e d e a le r s , s m a lle r p a r t o f th e d e p a rtm e n t sto res— e x sto re s. U ta h p r o p o r tio n of and C a li in s ta lm e n t of cash or ch arge b u s in e s s . T h e r e w a s little g e o g r a p h ic a l v a r ia t io n in th e c a s e o f a u to s a le s m a d e b y d e a le r s in h o u s e h o ld a p p lia n c e s , i n c lu d in g se ts. E v e n h ig h s a le s , w h ile N e v a d a a n d th e P a c ific N o r t h w e s t t e n d e d to have r a d io s a n d t e le v is io n A n g e le s ra th e r except th a t in s ta lm e n t to ta l in th e s a le s w ere P a c ific a som ew h at N o rth w e st th a n c lu d in g m a il-o r d e r a n d c a s h -o n ly b u s in e s s e s — m a d e o n e - e ls e w h e r e . H a r d w a r e s to r e s m a d e a la r g e r p r o p o r tio n o f s ix th ch arge of th e ir s a le s on a n d a u to a c c e s s o r y C h arge account in s ta lm e n t sto re s or c r e d it, and hardw are o n e -s e v e n t h . open c r e d it im p o r ta n t fo r th e d e p a r tm e n t a n d s a le s w h ic h w ere hardw are e s p e c ia lly sto re s, a n d in n o n e o f th e fiv e m a j o r r e ta il t r a d e s a n a ly z e d d id c a s h s a le s a c c o u n t f o r as m u ch as h a lf o f to ta l s a le s . F o r a ll t y p e s o f s t o r e s , th e p r o p o r t io n o f c h a r g e s a le s v a r ie d d i r e c tly w ith th e s iz e o f th e s to r e . D o w n p a y m e n ts a g g r e g a te d a b o u t 11 p e r c e n t o f d e p a r t m ent sto re in s ta lm e n t s a le s d u r in g th e 12 m o n th s. For th e o th e r m a jo r ty p e s a n a ly z e d , d o w n p a y m e n ts w e r e b e t w e e n 1 5 a n d 2 0 p e r c e n t , e x c e p t f o r a u to d e a le r s w h o r e c e iv e d dow n p a y m e n ts (in c lu d in g a v e r a g in g a lm o s t tw o -fift h s tr a d e -in a llo w a n c e s ) o f th e p u r c h a s e p r ic e . M o s t in s ta lm e n t s e lle r s , p a r tic u la r ly a u to m o b ile a n d a p p lia n c e account m ay s a le s r e fle c t in th e ir th e s p a r s e ly fu n c tio n of p o p u la te d s u p p ly in g sta te s, fa r m e rs w ith s e e d a n d fe e d a n d o t h e r s u p p lie s . N o t e : Detailed tabulations of the data obtained in the survey are available on request. For lending institutions, breakdowns by size of instalment paper holdings and by states and selected areas have been prepared for commercial banks, small loan companies, credit unions, and industrial loan com panies; distributions of direct and purchased paper for each type of lender are also available. In the case of credit-granting retail stores, ratios for each size group and for states and major trading areas and cities have been computed for automobile dealers and department, furniture, appli ance, and hardware stores. A V A ILA B LE F Q K D IS T R IB U T IO N The pamphlet, “Distribution of Bank Deposits by Counties and Standard Metropolitan Areas, December 30, 1950,” published by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, is avail able for distribution and may be obtained from this bank. (The most recent previous survey covers bank deposits by counties as of June 30, 1949.) August 1951 63 M O N T H L Y REVIEW BUSINESS INDEXES— TW ELFTH DISTRICT1 (1935-39 average “ 100) In d u s t r ia l p ro d u ctio n (p h y sica l v o lu m e )2 Y e ar an d m o n th P e tro le u m 3 Lum ber C ru d e R e fin e d C e m e n t Lead 8 W heat C o p p e r8 flo u r3 C a r T o ta l lo a d in gs m f'g E le c t r ic e m p lo y ( n u m b er)’ power m e n t4 1 0 2 0 ................ 1931_________ 1933____ _ 1934_________ 1935_________ 1936_________ 1937_________ 1938............... 19o9__............. 1940 -.............. 1941_________ 1942............. 1943_________ 1 9 1 4 ........... .. 19¿5................. 1946_________ 1947_________ 1948_________ 19 i 9 _________ 1950_________ 118 77 62 67 83 106 113 88 no 120 142 141 137 136 109 130 147 159 151 171 129 83 76 77 92 94 105 no 99 98 102 110 125 137 144 139 147 149 147 144 127 90 81 81 91 98 105 103 103 103 110 116 135 151 160 148 159 162 167 168 110 74 54 70 68 117 112 92 114 121 164 1.94 160 12S 131 165 193 211 202 227 171 104 75 79 89 100 US 96 97 112 113 US 104 93 81 73 98 109 105 113 160 75 26 36 57 98 135 88 122 144 163 188 192 171 137 109 163 154 142 176 106 101 88 95 94 96 99 96 107 103 103 104 L15 119 132 128 133 116 104 94 83 82 73 79 85 96 105 102 112 122 13 o 167 214 231 219 219 256 284 303 333 1950 M a y ______________ June__ __________ _ J u ly_________________ August---------------------September__________ O c t o b e r --__ ____ November__________ December__________ 207 181 184 186 176 187 167 168 140 142 142 145 1.48 153 154 154 162 170 170 178 177 177 179 173 240 244 245 251 248 252 229 229 132 118 87 96 10 i 106 111 118 180 172 167 177 175 176 195 195 95 105 113 112 105 99 97 120 1951 Januarv_____________ February____________ M arch______________ April....................... M av ______ June _ 187 171 168 189 199 190 154 155 155 155 155 157 176 187 179 180 179 179 239 255 243 247 278 266 101 110 106 101r lOlr 99 181 178 180 195 182 176 131 121 111 no 106 99 W a te rb orn e D e p ’t fo re ign store R e ts il tra d e 3*4 sales food (v a lu e )2 prices3*5 E x p o r t s Im p o r t s ' '88 100 112 96 104 118 155 230 306 295 229 181 187 191 183 197 135 91 70 81 K8 103 109 96 104 110 128 137 133 141 134 136 142 134 126 131 112 92 66 74 86 99 1.06 101 109 119 139 171 203 223 247 305 330 353 331 353 132.0 104 .0 8 6 .8 9 3 .2 9 9 .6 100 3 104 5 99 0 9 6 .9 9 7 .6 107.9 130.9 143.4 142 1 1.46.3 167.4 200.3 216.1 209 6 20 9 .8 124 90 72 86 88 86 112 108 107 S6 118 76 69 74 103 110 114 82 90 96 '58 85 57 55 59 55 78 93 11 5 13 l.r 341 331 341 .340 339 352 353 345 191 196 199 207 208 211 209 209 141 148 125 135 140 131 131 152 336 3 Í3r 454 374 368 343 345 376 2 0 5 .2 205 9 2 09.4 2 1 2 .5 21.1 .0 214.1 21 6 .0 222 9 61 66 59 48 58 62 68 70 107 150 110 141 131 148 167 167 361 361 380 378 3 /8 3 78 212 218 219 221 221 226 130 121 133 152 142 144 420 375 335 346 348r 347 230. S 230.2 23 4.5 2 3 3 .0 2 3 5 .3 r 22 3 .5 75 98 no 122 146 159 169 174 134 BANKING AND CREDIT STATISTICS— TWELFTH DISTRICT (amounts in millions of dollars) C on d ition item s o f all m e m b e r ban ks7 Year and m o n th 1929 1931 1.933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1912 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 Loans U .S . D em and and deposits G o v 't d is c o u n ts s e c u r itie s ad ju ste d 8 T o ta l tim e deposits 2,239 1,898 1,486 1,469 1,537 1,682 1,871 1,869 1,967 2,130 2,451 2,170 2,106 2,254 2,663 4,068 5,358 6,032 5,925 7,093 495 547 720 1,064 1,275 1,334 1,270 1,323 1,450 1,482 1,738 3,630 6,235 8,263 10,450 8,426 7,247 6,366 7,016 6,381 1,234 984 951 1,201 1,389 1,791 1,740 1,781 1,983 2,390 2,893 4,356 5,998 6,950 8,203 8,821 8,922 8,655 8,536 9,254 1,790 1,727 1,609 1,875 2,064 2,101 2,187 2,221 2,267 2,360 2,425 2,609 3,226 4,144 5,211 5.797 6,006 0,087 6,255 6,251 1950 June J uly August September October November December 6,034 6,162 6,418 6,664 6,810 6,963 7,093 6,905 6,810 6,699 6,495 6,452 6,319 6,381 8,289 8,458 8,627 8,754 8,871 9,018 9.254 6,315 6,250 6,210 6,213 6,239 6,194 6,251 1951 January February March April May June July 7,152 7,184 7,293 7,367 7,422 7,509 7,473 6,071 5,811 5,734 5,696 5.685 5,708 6,005 9,190 8,83 1 8,819 8,828 8,834 8,862 9,052 6,337 6,3 52 6,338 6,332 6,357 6,448 6,510 B ank rates on short-term business loans* M e m b e r bank reserves and related ite m s 10 Reserve bank cred it11 _ 4_ + + _ 444+ 4+ + — 3.20 3.35 3.37 + 4+ — + — 3.29 + 3.37 + + — + 3.48 3.67 — — — 44~ 34 21 2 7 2 6 1 3 2 2 4 107 214 98 76 9 302 17 13 39 C oin and T reasury C o m m ercia l currency in op era tio n s12 op e ra tio n s12 circ u la tio n 11 0 154 110 — 198 — 163 — 227 — 90 — 240 — 192 — 1(8 — 596 - 1 ,9 8 0 -3 ,7 5 1 - 3 ,534 —3,743 -1 ,6 0 7 — 510 + 472 — 930 -1 ,1 4 1 — — 10 3 2 62 56 24 48 + 30 32 3 45 13 73 14 — — _ — — — — - ~ — - +• 23 + 154 -1- 150 4- 257 •f 219 + 454 + 157 4* 276 + 245 -f 420 + 1 ,0 0 0 + 2 ,8 2 6 4-4,486 4-4,483 4-1,682 4-1,329 4* 698 482 4- 378 4-1,198 23 149 102 45 93 21 80 4444444- 32 169 125 72 150 42 131 59 38 1.24 200 162 113 3 12 4444-144- 168 6 130 226 1.50 199 293 __ 444* 44_ -i44444- + — — — ” 4+ 4* 44— 4— 444* 4- Bank debits Reserves 31 citie s’ " (1935-39=, 100)2 6 48 18 4 1.4 38 3 20 31 96 227 6 ;3 708 789 545 326 206 209 65 14 175 147 1:s5 242 287 479 549 565 58 4 754 930 1,232 1,162 1,700 2.033 2,094 2.202 2,420 1,924 2.026 146 97 63 72 87 102 111 9S 102 110 134 165 211 237 200 298 326 355 350 395 5 0 18 9 10 3 4 1,836 1,858 1,863 1,893 1,930 1,983 2,026 389 3S2 421 417 428 425 464 68 21 8 26 36 39 19 2,284 2,206 2,186 2,180 2,149 2,217 2,186 455 444 461 431 449 461 39/ 1 Adjusted for seasonal variation, except where indicated. Except for department store statistics, all indexes are based upon data from outside sources, as follows: lumber, various lumber trade associations; petroleum, cement, copper, and lead, U.S. Bureau of Mines; wheat flour, U.S. Bureau of the Census; electric power, Federal Power Commission; manufacturing employment, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and cooperating state agencies; retail food prices, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; carloadings, various railroads and railroad associations; and foreign trade, U.S. Bureau o£ the Census. 2 Daily average. * Not adjusted for seasonal variation. 4 Excludes fish, fruit, and vegetable canning. 5 Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Seattle indexes combined. • Commercial cargo only, in physical volume, for Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego, Oregon, and Washington customs districts; starting with July 1950, “ special category” exports are excluded because of security reasons. 7 Annual figures are as of end of year, monthly figures as of last Wednesday in month or, where applicable, as of call report date. * Demand deposits, excluding interbank and U.S. G ov’t deposits, less cash items in process of col lection. Monthly data partly estimated. 9 Average rates on loans made in five major cities daring the first 15 days of the month. 10 End of year and end of month figures. 11 Changes from end of previous month or year. 12 Minus sign indicates flow of funds out of the District in the case of commercial operations, and excess of receipts over disbursements in the case of Treasury operations. 13 Debits to total deposit accounts, excluding inter bank deposits. r— revised. D E F E N S E E G I N N I N G B 2 7 , a u n d e r w a y . to p u b lic D r iv e d e b t, a n d p a rt o f e v e r y to b e e n r o lle d g r o u p s , b e th e to r e lie v e d e fe n s e g o o d s , is th e o n h e lp to n o t o f a n d th e im m e d ia te T r e a s u r y a t th e a is o u t th e is a to th e n e t in c r e a s e d W h e n o n b o n d s n o d iv e r te d fe n s e fr o m S o m e v id u a l. in o u r in th e to str e a m p r e se n t to w ill if to (c o n s u m e r th is g o o d s h e lp s sp e n t o f n o c h e c k s a c c o u n ts h a n d , a s th e a re a ty p i S ta te s d r a w n o f o th e r s w h o le g o o d s ) th e m o n e y th e in to s h o u ld a re G o v e r n m e n t. sp e n t G o v e r n m e n t’s, In s te a d o f s y s te m U n ite d A s s y s te m o u r b o n d s b o n d s, th e to o f s e g m e n t b a n k in g th e o n c o n s u m e r p a rt w id e th e th e r e s u lts . w h e n o f d e fe n s e a o f tim e m o n e y b e c r e d it o th e r c ir c u m s ta n c e s o f s a v in g is e s s e n tia l th r o u g h p a tr io tic , b u t a ls o m in im iz e th e u p w a r d th e a m o u n t. th e a p r ic e s b y b a n k in g s u p p ly p o p u la tio n G o v e r n m e n t h a n d s s a v in g s e x p e c te d a n o th e r h e lp a n d m o n e y to is (d e m in im iz e p re ssu re s. n a tio n a l u p m o n e y o n o f p r o fe s s io n a l d e fe n s e th e d e p o s it b a n k a n d a re a t T h e a m o n g d e p o s ite d th e ir th e to m ig h t h e ld th e o f th r ift p u r p o s e s . S a le d e b t th e b o n d s, fr o m sp e n d in g U n d e r in e x te n s io n b u y u p n e w ly -is s u e d d e p o s its th e g o o d s it d is tr ib u tio n e a rn e rs o f q u o ta . d is c o u r a g e s a v in g s . g o o d s . p r o p o r tio n a re o f b e d e fe n s e , d o lla r to w id e p o p u la tio n th a n in c r e a se b e fa r m e r s , s e g m e n ts c o r r e s p o n d in g tr a n s fe r r e d o n e fo r m d e te r io r a tio n b u ild o f P e r s o n a l s a v in g o n ly h e lp s th a t in d iv id u a ls is g o o d s ). is r e s u lt in c r e a s e in fla tio n a r y n o t a p r iv a te th e th u s r e s u lt a s a n d p la n n e d n a tio n a l a g a in s t th is a d d itio n a l d e p o s it, th e y a n d P la n , d e fe n s e b u y s th e s a la r y b id d in g s m a lle r k e e p b y fo r w ill w ill fo r n a tio n a l p r a c tic e c o n s u m e r to n o O c to b e r D r iv e , p re p a r e d n e ss b e th e th r o u g h B o n d D r iv e a n d c o n s u m e r th e b a n k e ffe c t b a n k w a g e o th e r a v a ila b le r u n n in g in c r e a s e a m o n g o f s h ifte d th u s h e n a ll fr o m w h ic h sp re a d W a n d c o n tin u e d b o n d s p r ic e s w ill B o n d c o n tin u o u s , d iv e r te d th u s s u p p ly th e re S a v in g s a n d o f r e so u r c e s w e r e m in im u m . c a lly P a y r o ll s a le is p o p u la tio n a e n c o u r a g e a n d D e fe n s e fin a n c ia l D e fe n s e m a in ta in m a in ta in b e in g b o n d s a ls o th e to p re ssu re e c o n o m ic w ill to b u t D R I V E 3 , th e a id in d iv id u a l. M o r e th e w id e s p r e a d p r o d u c tio n to th e s e lf-e m p lo y e d , e n c o u r a g e d A a t o n d ir e c tly o f s p e n d in g , th e d r iv e , S n y d e r , p u r p o se s o n S e p te m b e r b o n d w ill S e c r e ta r y p r in c ip a l in fla tio n a r y th e D a y , s a v in g s T h e a c c o r d in g T h e L a b o r n e w B O N D in d e fe n s e th e p r ic e p r o g r a m . a n d th e It to th e fu tu r e p u r c h a se p ru d e n t p u r c h a s in g im m e d ia te th e in th e lig h t p r e ssu r e s th u s p o w e r fu tu r e o f se c u r ity o f s a v in g s h e lp s o f s e c u r ity e x is tin g in h e r e n t g r e a tly m o n e y . o f o f b o n d s th o u g h to in d i th e r e fo r e c o n d itio n s . u n d u e s a v in g s in d iv id u a l It d e fe r r e d p r e v e n t P e r s o n a l th e e v e r y is a ls o sa v e r.
@FedFRASER