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M TWELFTH FEDERAL RESERVE O N T H L Y R E V I E W DISTRICT F e d e r a l R e se r v e Ba n k o f S a n F r a n c is c o APRIL 1955 THE COURSE OF BANK CREDIT DURING THE RECOVERY in c e the beginning of economic recovery late last sum Smer, the nation has moved rapidly in the direction of prosperity and high level employment. “ Full” employ ment has not yet been reached; in April 1955, unem ployment was lower than twelve months before but at a rate still above what most economists consider the irre ducible minimum in peacetime. Gross national product, however, reached an all-time high on a seasonally ad justed basis during the first quarter of the year. The wholesale price level has continued stable during the re covery, as it did throughout the 1953-54 recession. Under these circumstances, the Federal Reserve Sys tem has modified the policy of active monetary ease, which it pursued from the middle of 1953 to nearly the end of 1954, and has taken a number of steps in the direction of mild restraint. Led by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kan sas City, each of the twelve Federal Reserve Banks raised its discount rate by a quarter of 1 percent in April and early May. The Board of Governors of the Federal Re serve System has raised margin requirements on stock market credit twice during 1955. On January 4 the re quirement went up from 50 to 60 percent, and on April 23 it was increased from 60 to 70 percent. In addition, as is usual during the winter and early spring months, the System has absorbed some of the post-Christmas flow of funds to commercial banks by reducing its holdings of United States Government securities. The excess reserves of member banks in both the Twelfth District and the nation have been allowed to fall below year-ago levels, and in the nation, but not in the District, member bank bor rowings from Federal Reserve Banks have increased as well. Free reserves, the difference between excess reserves and member bank borrowings, have fallen sharply in both the nation and the District since last fall. Growth in bank deposits and bank assets In spite of these restraints, bank deposits and bank credit have stayed well above their year-ago levels in both the nation and the District. Especially noteworthy has been the gain in demand deposits. For all banks in the nation on March 30, demand deposits (other than inter bank and United States Government deposits) were 5 percent ahead of a year ago, and time deposits (with the same exclusions) were 7 percent ahead. On March 31, 1954, time deposits had been 8 percent above a year ago, but demand deposits had exceeded the year-ago figure by less than half of 1 percent. It is the rate of growth of demand deposits, in other words, which has picked up significantly since a year ago. For member banks of the District, the story is the same. As of April 27, adjusted demand deposits were about 9 percent, and time deposits about 7 percent above a year ago. Compared to two years ago, time deposits were up 16 percent but demand de posits were up only 10 percent. Total loans and investments were 7.6 percent above a year ago as of March 30 for all banks in the nation and 9.4 percent above a year ago as of April 27 for member banks of the Twelfth District. For the District, the April 27 total was up about nine-tenths of 1 percent from the December 31 figure. The gain was at a slightly greater rate than in the same period of 1954 and at a slightly smaller rate than in the first four months of 1953. High level of loans outstanding in District member banks The current loan portfolios of weekly reporting District member banks reflect many of the seasonal and cyclical aspects of the economic situation. It is instructive to com pare loans outstanding during the first four months of 1955 with loans during the first four months of 1954, a period of recession, and during the first four months of 1953, a period of prosperity and credit expansion (see the accompanying chart). Each of the three major categories of loans— business loans, real estate loans, and “ other” (largely consumer) loans— has been rising relative to a year ago. Commercial and industrial loans and agricul tural loans (these two groups comprise “ business” loans) have changed very little this year, while they dropped appreciably during the inventory liquidation last year. This year’s record reflects in part an unusually small de cline in loans to metal producers and large increases in loans to wholesale and retail dealers, sales finance com panies, and public utility and transportation companies. Also in This Issue Twelfth District Production Prospects For Fruits and Vegetables . . . 58 58 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO Real estate loans outstanding, like construction expendi tures, have risen both this year and last, but somewhat faster this year. “ Other” loans (largely consumer loans) fell from the end of December through April last year but rose this year, just as consumer durable purchases were weak in early 1954 but are strong at present. Compared to two years ago, business loans have fallen less this year, while “ other” loans have risen more slowly this year. Real estate loans have risen by about the same amount this year and in 1953; in both periods there has been a great expan sion of construction and mortgage activity. The dollar amount of United States Government secu rities held by all District member banks has fallen slightly between the end of December and the end of April of this year. The demand for loans has absorbed an increasing share of bank assets, and banks have sold or redeemed C H A N G E S IN L O A N S O U T S T A N D IN G F O R W E E K L Y R E P O R T IN G M E M B E R B A N K S, T W E L F T H D IS T R IC T December 31, 1952 to April 27, 1955 A pril 1955 Government securities to make possible the loan expan sion. From the end of December through the end of April last year, the demand for loans was weaker, and so Gov ernment security holdings increased in the member banks of the District. Security holdings other than United States Govern ment obligations have increased in spite of the rising de mand for loans. District bank holdings of these securities, which consist mainly of state and local government bonds, have grown much more rapidly from the end of December through April of 1955 than in the same period of either 1954 or 1953. Surveys made in the postwar years have revealed extensive needs for schools, highways, hospitals, and other facilities supplied by state and local govern ments. These governments, taken as a group for the entire nation, have incurred a deficit in most years since 1948, and have issued a large dollar volume of bonds. Member banks of the Twelfth District have held an increasing pro portion of their assets in the form of such bonds. The fairly strong demand for bank credit in the first four months of this year reflects the growth in over-all business activity. The rise in demand coupled with a shift by the Federal Reserve System to a mildly restrictive monetary policy has resulted in some tightening in the money markets. It is possible that sufficient time has not yet elapsed for the effect of current money market influ ences to become fully evident. Under these circumstances the direction and character of current and future eco nomic developments become of particular importance as guides for the further development of monetary policy. TWELFTH DISTRICT PRODUCTION PROSPECTS FOR FRUITS AND VEGETABLES iz a b le production and acreage changes for several Dis Strict fruit and vegetable crops in 1955 are indicated by preliminary reports. For fruit and vegetables as a whole, however, the change probably will be small. Fruit produc tion is expected to be down slightly from 1954 and, based on acreage forecasts, an increase in production is antici pated for vegetables. But growing conditions during the remainder of the season could alter these prospects. As is typical during the spring of the year, winter weather paid brief return visits to parts of the nation, resulting in frost damage to fruit and vegetable crops. Although some damage from cold weather is to be ex pected each year, this spring was generally colder than usual resulting in severe frost damage to crops in some areas. Damage was quite extensive in the South Central and Southeastern states in the latter part of March, vir tually wiping out the peach crop in the ten Southeastern states producing early peaches. The Southeastern peach crop is usually quite important nationally, particularly in the early part of the season. In 1954 ten million bushels of peaches were produced in that region, accounting for almost one-fourth of the national crop of freestone peaches. Fortunately, farmers in the Twelfth District fared much better. Although localized areas suffered rela tively heavy losses, the extent of frost damage in the District apparently will have little effect on total output of fruits and vegetables. Nevertheless, the prolonged cool weather this spring has retarded seasonal farming opera tions and plant growth over most of the District and ulti mately may affect output. Indicating the lateness of the season are reports from Utah which place farming opera tions in that state as much as 30 days behind schedule. In addition to the weather, output is influenced by the volume of acreage devoted to production. Because of the comparatively long production life of orchards, fruit acre age changes slowly from year to year. On the other hand, acreage used for the production of vegetables may vary considerably from season to season. Consequently, to as sist vegetable producers in their production plans, acreage guides are prepared each year by the United States De partment of Agriculture for both fresh and processing vegetable crops. The over-all acreage changes recom mended by the Department of Agriculture for winter, spring, and summer vegetables this year are indicated in Table 1. M O NTHLY REVIEW April 1955 T able 1 P ercent 1955 C hange in F resh M a r k e t V egetable S u g g este d b y t h e U n it e d culture and A c r e a g e for S t a t e s D e p a r t m e n t o f A g r i I n d ic a t e d A c r e a g e C h a n g e s b y F a r m e r s Percent change in acreage suggested 1955 from 1954 Percent change in acreage indicated by farmers1 r -------------1955 from 1954-------------- x Twelfth United District States ........... W inter (1954-55) Spring (1955) ......... ........... Summer (1955) . . . . ........... —4 —9 —6 —3 —6 + 8 —3 + 5 0 ......... —7 0 + 3 T otal ........................ 1 Includes only acreage intentions available on April 1, 1955 and does not inelude strawberry acreage. Source: United States Department of Agriculture, Vegetables-Fresh Market, and 1955 Acreage and Marketing Guides for Vegetables. Fruit Despite a generally heavy bloom, the District produc tion of some deciduous fruits in 1955 is expected to be considerably lower this year than last, due primarily to frost damage. Below freezing temperatures during the last week of April were particularly costly to fruit and nut growers in the Sacramento Valley, with damage in this area estimated at about $11.5 million. The condition of the California peach crop is considerably below a year ago with crop conditions for cling peaches reduced 30 percent and for freestone peaches 10 percent. If this probable reduction in California peach output is realized, the na tional supply may be expected to be quite low, particularly during the early summer months when California and the ten Southeastern states are the principal sources of sup ply. With a smaller national crop, District canners will probably encounter a great deal of competition from the fresh market for available supplies of freestone peaches. In addition to peaches, California pears and prunes suf fered from frost damage, and output of these fruits is expected to be lower than in 1954, as is almond produc tion. On the other hand, an increase in the production of cherries, apricots, grapes, and walnuts is indicated. Deciduous fruit prospects in other states of the Dis trict are apparently satisfactory. But the late spring has prompted some concern in the Pacific Northwest about the effect of poor pollination weather on the set of the stone fruit crop. As apple trees are just beginning to blos som in Washington, no condition report on them is avail able, but evidently the prolonged cold weather caused little injury and did reduce the risk of frost damage by delaying the blossoming period. District production of strawberries has increased rap idly during the last few years and current estimates indi cate that this trend will continue in 1955. Last year the three Pacific Coast states produced 60 percent of the nation’s strawberries and provided 86 percent of the na tional supplies for freezing. Preliminary estimates indicate a 13 percent increase in District acreage in 1955. Although recent rains caused some damage, it does not appear to be serious. Early spring strawberry prices have been un usually high, as freezing weather reduced the production of the early crop in Louisiana. Wholesale prices in some major cities, around the first of May, were about double those of the previous year. 59 District citrus growers also have experienced some un favorable weather conditions during the spring. Produc tion, however, is expected to be 7 percent larger than in the preceding season but down 3 percent from the average crop of the four previous seasons (Table 2). This increase in output from last year stems solely from a greater pro duction of oranges; the production of lemons and grape fruit is expected to be smaller. A freeze during February nipped grapefruit in some Arizona producing areas and the consequent effect upon quality caused the diversion of about half of the remaining crop from fresh market chan nels. T a b le 2 I n d ic a t e d P r o d u c t io n o f C it r u s F r u i t s , T w e l f t h D is t r ic t 1954-55 S eason Indicated production 1954-55 Oranges1 (thousands of boxes) Navels ................................. 16,350 Valencias .......................... 24,050 13,800 Lem ons2 ........................ .. Gi*apefruit3 Desert ................................. 2,920 O t h e r ................................... 1,500 T otal ........................................ 58,620 Percent change --------- 1954-55 from------------- > Four-year average 1950-51 to 1953-54 1953-54 + 9 4-29 + 9 — 9 — 14 0 — 22 + 3 — 20 — 3 +~7 —-~3 1 Marketing season for navels is November 1 to May 31; marketing season for Valencias is March 1 to December 31. 2 Marketing season for lemons is November 1 to October 31. 3 Marketing season for desert grapefruit is October 1 to June 30; marketing sea son for “ other” is June 1 to September 30. Source: California Department of Agriculture, Crop and Livestock Reporting Services, California Fruit Report, April 1, 1954. Prices received for the 1954-55 District citrus crop sold for fresh market purposes reflect production changes from the previous year. Prices at the end of March were some what higher than last year for grapefruit and lemons and lower for oranges. The cold weather during the growing season also was a price depressing factor for navel oranges as it retarded the sizing of the fruit. However, added strength to District desert grapefruit prices resulted from reduced output in Florida and, hence, less competition from this producing area. Vegetables Judging from incomplete data, District production oi fresh vegetables should be larger than in 1954 providing average yields are obtained and farmers fulfill their inten tions to increase their plantings (Table 3 ). The prospec tive increase of 3 percent in District acreage of winter, spring, and summer vegetables combined stands in con trast to the planting guides issued by the United States Department of Agriculture, which suggest a decline in acreage of 7 percent on a national basis (Table 1). Dis trict plantings of winter vegetables did conform closely with the change suggested for the nation. But a 5 percent increase is scheduled for spring vegetables as the result of increased acreage for asparagus, broccoli, carrots, toma toes, and watermelons. Such an increase in plantings of spring vegetables would more than offset the decline in winter vegetable acreage. If total production conforms with the acreage changes indicated to date, District vege table producers would produce a larger proportion of total 60 A pril 1955 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO T able 3 T able 4 P rospective P lantings of S elected T ruck Crops for F resh and P rocessing M arkets — T welfth D i s t r i c t P ercent C hanges in T welfth D istrict P rocessing V egetable A creage and in N ational Commercial S tocks of P rocessed V egetables F resh W inter (1954-55) C a b b a g e ............ C a r r o t s ............... C a u liflow er C elery In dicated acreage 3.700 8.700 210 ........................ ........................ 3,850 45,500 2,300 T otal (6 winter) . . . 64,260 Lettuce Spinach Spring (1955) Asparagus .................... B r o c c o l i ........................ C a b b a g e ........................ C a n ta lou p es.................. Carrots ........................ Cauliflower .................. Celery .......................... Lettuce ........................ Onions .......................... Peas ............................... Spinach ........................ Strawberries ................ T o m a t o e s ...................... W aterm elons ............. 88,390 12,200 3,000 28,000 3,500 6,200 2,800 42,000 5,300 4,500 300 43,200 4,800 8,800 T otal (14 s p r in g ).. 252,990 Processing (1955) Snap b e a n s ...................... 15,900 Sweet corn ...................... 38,400 Green peas ...................... 168,800 Spinach ............................. 8,300 T o m a t o e s ........................... 111,600 T otal (5 processing) . . 338,000 Percen t change -19 5 5 from ---------------- x F iv e -y e a r average 1954 1949-1953 — 4 — 17 + 10 — 36 — 81 — '58 * — 6 — 6 — 2 + 5 + 5 — 5 + 52 — 3 _+ 2 7 — 34 + 13 + 7 + 22 +~~6 — 4 — 25 + 9 +32 — 9 — 1 + 15 — '15 + 26 —6 — 17 — 36 — 67 + 34 + 28 + B + ~7 + 551 + 7 + 34 + 37 — 21 + 131 + 7* _ 61 + +11 9 *Less than 0.5 percent. 1 For processing vegetables the percent change is measured from a ten-year aver age, 1944-53. Source: United States Department of Agriculture, Vegetables-Processing and V egetables-Fresh Market, April 1, 1955 and previous releases. output and probably obtain a larger share of national re ceipts from fresh vegetable marketings than in 1954. The cold spell in the latter part of March also affected fresh vegetable crops in the Southeastern producing areas. During the first two weeks of April following the freeze, average prices received by farmers nationally ranged from 26 to 119 percent higher than in a similar period of the previous year for cabbage, sweet corn, lettuce, spinach, and celery. Of the six winter vegetables indicated in Table 3, only carrot prices were lower. P ercent change in N ationa l A p ril 1 stock s ,--------- 1955 from 1954--------C anned1 F rozen + 70 + 15 + 17 + 12 — 31 — 23 * — 46 0 — 23 — 15 —12 + 12 Percent change in D istrict acreage 1955 from 1954 — 4 B ea n s, s n a p ............ ........................ ........................ — 25 P e a s, g r e e n ............ ........................ + 7 ........................ +34 T o m a to e s 3 ................. ........................ +37 * N o report. 1 Canners and distributors stocks. 2 T om atoes, tom ato sauce, and tom ato juice. Source: U nited States D epartm ent o f Agriculture, C o l d S t o r a g e R e p o r t and V e g e t a b l e s - P r o c e s s i n g ; U nited States D epartm ent o f Com m erce, C a n n e d F o od R ep o rt. The District acreage devoted to the production of vege tables for processing also is slated to increase, in contrast to an estimated decline for similar products nationally. Leading the acreage increase in the District are tomatoes and green peas with a combined rise of 40,000 acres. As these are two of the most important vegetables in the Dis trict, on an acreage basis, their increase in plantings over 1954 was primarily responsible for a 9 percent increase in the total acreage of the five processing vegetables in cluded in Table 3. Although the increase in total District plantings of processing vegetables contrasts with the decline suggested nationally, the District change for individual vegetables appears to be consistent with changes in national frozen and canned vegetable stocks from a year ago. Increased plantings of tomatoes, spinach, and green peas are associ ated with smaller stocks of those items. On the other hand, snap bean and sweet corn acreages are expected to decline while the stocks of these products are considerably larger than on a comparable date in 1954 (Table 4 ). Neverthe less, some difficulty is expected in maintaining an orderly flow of the product from the field to the processor, par ticularly for green peas. Cold weather retarded the growth of early planted peas and may cause bunching of supplies as these early plantings mature at nearly the same time as later plantings. FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO April 1955 60A BUSINESS INDEXES— TW ELFTH DISTRICT1 (1947-49 average=lÛQ) In d u s t r ia l p ro d u ctio n (p h y sic a l v o lu m e )2 Y ear an d m o n th Lum ber P e tro le u m 3 C ru d e R e fin e d C e m e n t 80 42 34 45 61 60 65 77 77 74 74 61 80 94 102 104 116 115 111 119 111 87 57 52 62 71 67 67 69 74 85 93 97 94 100 101 99 98 106 107 109 106 1954 February March April M ay June July August September October Novem ber December 117 115 116 123 97 79 87 109 124 117 130 1955 January February 133 131 1929 1931 1933 1935 1937 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 Lead 3 165 100 72 W heat C o p p e r3 flo u r3 95 96 96 99 'i o o 101 96 95 99 102 99 103 111 118 122 120 “ 47 60 55 63 83 121 164 158 122 97 100 102 97 105 122 132 139 136 102 99 98 103 105 91 75 97 110 116 114 97 98 96 96 96 92 101 108 105 104 101 160 171 168 174 183 179 174 174 176 177 173 120 120 120 120 119 119 119 120 120 121 121 136 136 136 136 137 131 130 136 137 138 139 118 130 103 107 173 179 122 122 139 139 71 83 93 98 91 98 100 103 103 112 116 123 119 114 93 108 109 114 100 90 78 70 94 105 101 109 89 74 70 80 94 107 123 125 112 90 71 106 101 93 115 115 112 111 101 109 108 107 107 107 106 104 105 104 104 105 120 118 119 123 119 118 115 121 116 119 119 117 116 134 143 140 143 137 138 143 132 132 80 76 71 67 69 63 73 69 70 73 69 105 105 116 122 119 131 74 76 68 86 86 102 29 29 26 30 38 40 43 49 60 76 82 78 78 90 101 108 119 136 144 161 173 105 49 17 37 54 36 27 33 56 56 61 81 96 79 63 65 81 96 104 100 112 128 124 130 132 78 55 50 56 65 63 63 T o ta l C ar R e ta il D e p ’t n on agri T o ta l food lo a d in gs store m f ’g c u ltu ra l sales prices ( n u m E le c t r ic e m p lo y e m p lo y 3« 5 ber)2 (va lu e )2 power m e n t4 m ent 88 90 86 75 87 84 91 87 87 88 98 101 112 108 113 98 88 86 70 80 96 103 100 100 113 115 113 113 90 97 102 98 106 107 111 111 114 114 115 115 110 116 114 118 114 113 113 114 114 113 113 113 113 111 111 99 104 124 115 112 112 68 66 81 77 82 95 102 99 105 100 101 106 100 94 97 100 101 100 96 90 94 99 97 96 88 E x p o r t s Im p o r t s 64 50 42 48 50 47 47 52 63 69 30 25 18 24 30 31 33 40 49 59 65 72 91 99 104 98 105 109 114 116 113 52 W a te rb o rn e fo re ig n tra d e 3* 6 190 138 110 135 170 163 132 124 80 72 109 119 95 101 "8 9 129 85 91 186 171 140 131p **57 81 98 121 137 157 200 308 260p 156 156 157 158 141 144 96 115 112 118 113 271 233 232 271 237 331 282 262 277 196 313 68 86 287 BANKING AN D CREDIT STATISTICS— TW ELFTH DISTRICT (amounts in millions of dollars) C o n d itio n ite m s o f all m e m b e r b a n k s 7 Year an d m o n th U .S. Loans an d G ov *t d is c o u n t s s e c u r it ie s T o ta l Dem and d ep osits tim e ad j u sted8 d ep osits 2,239 1,898 1,486 1,537 1,871 1,967 2,130 2,451 2,170 2,106 2,254 2,663 4,068 5,358 6,032 5,925 7,093 7,866 8,839 9,220 9,418 495 547 720 1,275 1,270 1,450 1,482 1,738 3,630 6,235 8,263 10,450 8,426 7,247 6,366 7,016 6,415 6,463 6,619 6,639 7,942 1,234 984 951 1,389 1,740 1,983 2,390 2,893 4,356 5,998 6,950 8,203 8,821 8,922 8,655 8,536 9,254 9,937 10,520 10,515 11,196 1,790 1,727 1,609 2,064 2,187 2,267 2,360 2,425 2,609 3,226 4,144 5,211 5,797 6,006 6,087 6,255 6,302 6,777 7,502 7,997 8,699 1954 M arch April M ay June July August September October November December 9,106 9,045 9,001 9,049 8,989 8,977 9,054 9,048 9,343 9,422 6,500 6,903 6,991 6,981 7,190 7,574 7,610 8,014 8,089 7,973 9,922 10,190 10,045 10,087 10,310 10,257 10,463 10,749 10,937 ll,1 58 r 8,175 8,234 8,306 8,428 8,444 8,501 8,555 8,651 8,596 8,663 1955 January February March 9,510 9,612 9,696 7,998 7,693 7,390 11,246 10,945 10,733 8,725 8,765 8,837 1929 1931 1933 1935 1937 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 Bank rates on short-term b u sin e ss lo a n s9 M e m b e r b a n k reserves a n d related ite m s10 Reserve bank cre dit11 C o in a n d cu rre n cy in C o m m e rc ia l T re a su ry o p e ra tio n s12 o p e ra tio n s12 c irc u la tio n 11 _ 6 48 + — 18 14 + — 3 31 + 96 + + 227 643 + 708 + 789 545 326 — 206 — 209 — 65 — 14 + 189 + 132 39 + 30 175 147 185 287 549 584 754 930 1,232 1,462 1,706 2,033 2,094 2,202 2,420 1,924 2,026 2,269 2,514 2,551 2,505 42 28 18 25 32 30 32 39 48 60 66 72 86 95 103 102 115 132 140 150 153 — + + + + + + + + + 315 381 136 277 170 12 196 142 342 175 + + — 29 7 36 15 3 7 8 23 27 23 2,413 2,477 2,432 2,413 2,308 2,317 2,368 2,364 2,440 2,505 158 150 143 157 145 154 152 150 158 173 + — + 77 57 362 — + — 79 13 1 2,481 2,447 2,418 161 166 177 _ 34 21 + — 2 2 + — 1 2 + 2 + 4 + + 107 + 214 98 + 76 9 + — 302 17 + 13 + 39 + 21 7 + — 14 2 + 0 154 110 163 90 192 148 596 -1 ,9 8 0 -3 ,7 5 1 -3 ,5 3 4 -3 ,7 4 3 -1 ,6 0 7 510 + 472 - 930 -1 ,1 4 1 -1 ,5 8 2 -1 ,9 1 2 -3 ,0 7 3 -2 ,4 4 8 23 + + 154 150 + + 219 + 157 + 245 + 420 + 1 ,000 + 2 ,826 + 4 ,486 + 4 ,483 + 4 ,682 + 1 ,329 + 698 482 378 + 1 ,198 + 1 ,983 + 2 ,265 + 3 ,158 + 2 ,328 + - 213 324 148 254 307 28 170 138 244 127 + + + + + 4.01 — 125 5 + 9 + — 21 29 + 18 16 + 9 + 1 0 3.98 — + + + - 150 26 401 3.20 3.35 3.66 3.95 4.14 4.01 4.12 4.14 4.08 34 15 10 Reserves B a n k d e bits In d e x 31 citie s3* 13 (1947-49=» 100)2 1 Adjusted for seasonal variation, except where indicated. E xcept for department store statistics, all indexes are based upon data from outside sources, as follows: lumber, various lumber trade associations; petroleum, cement, copper, and lead, U.S. Bureau of Mines; wheat flour, U.S. Bureau of the Census; electric power, Federal Power Commission; nonagricultural and manufacturing employment, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and cooperating state agencies; retail food prices, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; carloadings, various railroads and railroad associations; and foreign trade, U.S. Bureau of the Census. 2 Daily average. 3 N ot adjusted for seasonal variation. 4 Excludes fish, fruit, and vegetable canning. 6 Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Seattle indexes combined. 6 Commercial cargo only, in physical volume, for Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego, Oregon, and Washington customs districts; starting with July 1950, “ special category” exports are excluded because of security reasons. 7 Annual figures are as of end of year, monthly figures as of last W ednesday in month or, where applicable, as of call report date. 8 Demand deposits, excluding interbank and U.S. G o v ’t deposits, less cash items in process of collection. M onthly data partly estimated. 9 Average rates on loans made in five m ajor cities daring the first 15 days of the month. 10 End of year and end of month figures. 11 Changes from end of previous month or year. 12 Minus sign indicates flow of funds out of the District in the case of commercial operations, and excess of receipts over disbursements in the case of Treasury operations. 13 Debits to total deposits except interbank prior to 1942. Debits to demand deposits except Federal Government and interbank deposits from 1S42. p— Preliminary.
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