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MONTHLY REVIEW TWELFTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT Fe d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k APRIL 1951 of S a n Fr a n c i s c o WHITHER INFLATION? h e easing in consumer demand which started in late February and has continued since then has contributed T not only to a substantial increase in retail and wholesale inventories but has also removed the pressure from some prices. Though these developments have created a con siderable problem for some retailers, they have had the effect of injecting a somewhat more stabilizing influence into the economy as a whole, at least for the present and immediate future. They indicate that until military pro duction becomes much larger, civilian supplies will be adequate. Moreover, these developments are likely to make businessmen more cautious with inventory and price practices and consumers more realistic concerning the likelihood of shortages. Such a change in attitudes can help considerably to lessen inflationary pressures. It is extremely difficult to predict, however, how long this new attitude may prevail. Certainly it cannot be taken for granted. The days since the outbreak of war in K o rea have demonstrated perhaps more clearly than ever before how volatile consumer demand can be. It has fluc tuated widely during that period in response to changing international tension. Consumers were motivated last July and again in De cember and January by the expectation that the supply of goods might shrink suddenly and precipitously and that prices would rise sharply. Acting on these expecta tions, they hurried to buy all types of goods which were scarce during World War II. They were willing to spend a higher than usual proportion of their income, go into debt, and draw upon some of their liquid assets not only to hedge against shortages but also to act before the pur chasing power of their cash assets dropped sharply. Retailers also had expected severe shortages in many lines and proceeded to order heavily. This motivation was strongly reinforced by the behavior of consumers who seemed bent on clearing the shelves of stores. To the sur prise of retailers, their orders were filled very promptly and inventories at retail increased steadily throughout the heavy buying periods. The interlude of more mod erate buying during September, October, and November of last year did not convince retailers, wholesalers, or manufacturers that supplies of goods were apt to outrun consumer demand. Events in December and January, when consumers again raided the retail larder, reinforced the motives of producers to get goods produced in record volume and of retailers and wholesalers to stock up. The sharp March decline in sales resulted in very rapid inven tory accumulation in many retail lines and stocks have backed up at the wholesale level as well. The inventory position of manufacturers, however, was more moderate at the end of March, except in some nondurable lines such as clothing and textiles. Available data indicate a contin ued slowness in sales in April and a further building up of inventories. Industrial activity remains at high level Despite the recent slackening in consumer demand, over-all production and employment have remained at high levels. Although the volume of industrial production remained virtually unchanged during the first four months of this year, it was about 20 percent higher than a year ago. Total nonagricultural employment has been ris ing moderately, however, and about 3 million more per sons were employed in March than a year ago. Employment in the Twelfth District has followed a similar trend. Manufacturing employment has risen con siderably more than total nonagricultural employment and is about 20 percent above the level of a year ago. Among the factors sustaining the level of industrial production and of employment, despite the decline in re tail sales, are the continued growth in business inven tories, the large volume of private expenditures on plant and equipment and of public expenditures by states and municipalities on roads, schools, and other facilities, the growing volume of military expenditures, and the contin ued high level of commercial and residential construction. Business firms throughout the country are planning to Also in This Issue Prospective Crop Plantings for 1951 Supplement The Sugar Beet Industry in the Twelfth Federal Reserve District 30 FEDERAL RESERVE B A N K OF SAN FRAN CISCO spend on new plant and equipment in 1951 nearly $24 billion, which is 29 percent more than last year and 24 percent above the previous peak in 1948. Owing primarily to rising military orders, the volume of unfilled orders in the hands of manufacturers has grown continuously dur ing the past year and at the end of March totaled $51 bil lion. Residential and commercial construction have re mained at high levels so far this year, although the evi dence suggests that they are beginning to taper off in both the Twelfth District and the nation. Strong inflationary pressures still exist These facts suggest that strong inflationary pressures still underlie our economy even though they have been tempered in recent weeks by a slackening in consumer demand. As the months go by, military orders will be placed at an accelerating rate. The Government has placed orders for equipment, facilities, and supplies totalling over $26 billion since June 1950. Over $58 billion more in orders are to be placed before the end of June 1952, ac cording to President Truman. This means that actual military output will absorb an increasing proportion of industrial production and gross national product in the months to come. Government purchases of goods and services for national defense took only 8 percent of our gross national product in the first quarter of this year. As this proportion rises, relatively less will be available in the form of civilian supplies. Consumer goods overstocked Lagging sales are currently indicating a saturation of markets for some types of consumer goods and many merchants selling these goods are overstocked and over committed. The sales lag is attributed mainly to the un usually large purchases made in the months since Korea. This is the case especially for various types of consumer durable goods, of which television sets are the most not able example. Inventories of new and used automobiles have also been rising to rather high levels as a conse quence of the decline in sales in March and April. The tapering off in retail sales and the accumulation of inventories at the retail and wholesale levels has become a source of concern to some merchants. It seems unlikely, however, that the present slowness in the market can per sist indefinitely in view of the strong sustaining factors in our economy already mentioned. These factors will maintain consumer income at a high level. This, in addi tion to the large amounts of liquid assets still held by con sumers, should provide a good market for consumer goods over the longer run, even though there may well be a period of adjustment while consumers “ catch up” with their large volume of forward buying that has char acterized their purchases since the outbreak of war in Korea. Other restraints upon inflation Numerous factors in addition to the decline in con sumer demand have contributed to the recent levelling off in the inflationary spiral. Price and wage controls, April 1951 restrictions upon the use of certain scarce materials for civilian purposes, some let-ups in the Government's stock piling program, some tightening in the availability of credit, and a substantial Government surplus so far this fiscal year— all these have served to lessen inflationary pressures. In the banking field, the most important factor has been the change in the open market policy of the Federal Re serve System that accompanied the Treasury-Federal Reserve System agreement on debt management and monetary policies announced early in March. The ex change offering by the Treasury of a new 2$4 percent long-term nonmarketable bond facilitated a change in Federal Reserve open market policy that has resulted in the abandonment of the support of long-term Government bonds at par or above. As a consequence, both mediumand long-term Government bonds restricted as to eli gibility for bank investment have declined approximately 3 points below par, and yields have therefore risen. Bankeligible bonds have declined to around par. Banks and other institutional lenders have been less willing to con vert Government securities into funds for private loans as a consequence of the decline in the prices of Govern ment securities. The effect has been most noticeable, per haps, with respect to their willingness to make V A and F H A real estate loans on which the rates of interest are fixed by administrative authority. Bank loans continue to rise, however, despite the lower prices for Government securities and the higher reserve requirements which became effective in January. Most of the increase has been in commercial and industrial loans. Total loans of all member banks in the Twelfth District increased by nearly $210 million between December 31, 1950 and April 9, 1951, the latest call report date. Com mercial and industrial loans increased nearly 7 percent and accounted for three-fourths of the gain in total loans. In the corresponding period last year they declined about 4 percent. Commercial, industrial, and agricultural loans of weekly reporting member banks continued to rise in April in the Twelfth District, in contrast to a slight de cline in such loans in the country as a whole. This recent decline in commercial and industrial loans on a national basis may be an indication that business borrowing is becoming more difficult. Should this be the case, it is possible that corporations will sell at least part of their large holdings of Government securities to help finance the proposed large 1951 expansion of plant and equipment amounting to about $24 billion. To the extent that this happens, inflationary pressures will be increased. In the Twelfth District, real estate loans of weekly re porting member banks have grown somewhat more rap idly during the first four months of this year than in the corresponding period of 1950, whereas in the country as a whole the rate of growth has been somewhat less this year than last. Total consumer loans held by all Twelfth District mem ber banks declined slightly between the end of 1950 and April 1951 MONTHLY REVIEW April 9. Most of the decline occurred in instalment paper covering automobiles and other types of consumer dur able goods. Instalment cash loans increased, however. Voluntary credit restraint program A program of voluntary credit restraint to be partici pated in by major lenders throughout the country was officially announced early in March. President Truman delegated to the Board of Governors of the Federal Re serve System the authority given him by the Defense Pro duction Act of 1950 to encourage financial institutions to enter into voluntary agreements to restrain credit pro vided those will further the objectives of that Act. By agreement with the Attorney General, actions re quested under this voluntary program will be exempt from the provisions of the anti-trust laws. 31 The program is administered by a series of national and regional committees established for major types of lending institutions, including commercial banks, invest ment banks, and insurance companies. It is contemplated that committees for other types of lenders may also be established. Under the program, lenders are requested to screen loan applications very carefully and to reject those that do not result in a commensurate increase in the produc tion, processing, and distribution of essential goods and services. An individual lender may reject a particular loan application with less risk than formerly that the ap plicant may obtain the loan from a competitor. It is too early to tell how effective the program will be. However, the fact that many lenders are nearly “ loaned up” to the limits they consider prudent will help to rein force the operation of the program. PROSPECTIVE CROP PLANTINGS FOR 1951 I n contemplating plantings for 1951, the farmers in the Twelfth District, as well as throughout the nation, are facing a situation completely opposite from conditions which prevailed a year ago. In 1950, mounting surpluses had resulted in the Government imposition of acreage allotments on a number of agricultural commodities. Planting cuts called for the diversion of approximately 30 million United States acres to crops not under restric tions. District cuts amounted to 2.3 million acres. Largely as a result, cotton production in the United States was re duced by 39 percent from the record 1949 crop, while out put in the Twelfth District was down 24 percent. District farmers in 1950 also cut sharply their output of rice, dry beans, and potatoes. The combination of circumstances which in late 1950 influenced the Government to call for all-out food and fibre production eliminated the need for a continuation of acreage allotments. During 1951, therefore, farmers are free to plant whatever crops they choose. Apparently, they are choosing to expand production of cotton, wheat, corn, and rice— previously restricted crops. Reports on growers’ planting intentions indicate an 18 percent increase in spring wheat seeding. Should these in dications be realized on the national level, the number of seeded acres would be slightly higher than the Govern ment's suggested planting guides for 1951. Plantings short of the production requested in some of the North Central states are expected to be overbalanced by larger plantings in Montana, South Dakota, Idaho, and Wash ington. Weather in the next two months will be an im portant factor in the final wheat output. Severe drought in the southern Great Plains region, aided by insects, has already decreased production prospects on acres planted last fall to winter wheat. Despite the expected increase in the spring wheat harvest, the diminished output of winter wheat may result in a total wheat crop of a little less than one billion bushels— slightly below 1950 pro duction. At this date, the national increase in corn plantings is expected to be only slightly above last year. Though Corn Belt farmers will plant about 6 percent more corn in 1951 than last season, growers in the South Central states have indicated intentions to reduce plantings 7 per cent. Many southern farmers have adjusted their agricul tural production in the postwar years to encompass the growing of pasture grasses and livestock. This changeover is based on a long-range program, and, where it has oc curred, operators are reluctant to abandon their plans for any temporary advantage offered by other crops. Acreage in both sorghums and soybeans will be lower this year than last. The reduction in sorghums, estimated at 24 percent below 1950, is a result of a diversion to pre viously controlled crops— particularly wheat and cotton. Efforts are being made to replant drought-stricken wheat areas to grain sorghums. The anticipated drop in soybean plantings is a reflection of the increased acreage that will be planted to corn in the North Central states. Seeding of oats and barley also will very likely be below 1950 levels. With the relatively small increase in corn planting over the nation as a whole and a decrease in sorghums, oats, and barley, prospects for feed grains appear to be 6 per cent below 1950. However, the hay crop, weather permit ting, will be about equal to last year's production and slightly above the 1940-49 average. Shifts in District crop production Twelfth District farmers are also contemplating sharp shifts in 1951 from the patterns of 1950 plantings. Sugar beets and feed grains were grown last year on acres which had been taken out of cotton, wheat, and rice because of allotment programs. With the removal of restrictions, an increase is expected in District cotton, wheat, and rice output, accompanied by a sharp curtailment in the pro duction of sugar beets and feed grains. Record plantings of rice are in prospect in California and are expected to be about 30 percent above last year, 32 April 1951 FEDERAL RESERVE B A N K OF SAN FRANCISCO and 37 percent above the 1940-49 average. In the Pacific Northwest, acreage planted to winter wheat was 6 per cent above a year ago. Approximately 15 percent more spring wheat will be seeded this year, the major increase occurring in Idaho and Oregon. This should result in a total District wheat crop about 7 percent above 1950 and 20 percent above the 1940-49 average. Perhaps no crop in the Twelfth District will be so sharply influenced by the current economic and political situation as cotton. Planting restrictions resulted in a de cline of 26 percent in the California crop in 1950 and 20 percent in Arizona. As a result of the lifting of restric tions, drastically reduced national stocks, and the expec tation that gin prices for cotton will be considerably above the relatively high level of support prices, District cotton growers are expected to double their plantings during the current year. The Government has called upon the na tion’s growers to jump 1951 production to 16 million bales— or 62 percent above last season. Since Cotton Belt farmers are unlikely to meet their proportionate share of this needed output, most of the increase will have to come from western and southwestern fields. The irrigated areas C O T T O N A C R E A G E H A R V E S T E D IN A R I Z O N A A N D C A L I F O R N I A , 1921-25— 1945-50, and 1949-51 est. (in thousands of acres) I n d i c a t e d P l a n t i n g s o f F ie l d C r o p s a s o f M a r c h 1 T w e l f t h D is t r ic t a n d U n it e d S t a t e s 12th District 1951 (000 acres) ................... 3,192 Beans, dry e d ib le ............... .................... 549 ................... 71 ................... 1,420 Sorghums ............................. ................... Sugar b e e t s ........................... ................... W heat, spring .................... W heat, winter ................... .................... 151 293 Peas, dry f i e ld ...................... 5,190 Percentage change ,-------------- 1950-51------------12th United District States — 14 — 14 + 13 + 2 — 10 + 2 — 8 — 4 — 4 0 — 11 — 5 + 2 + 2 — 15 — 20 + 19 + 19 — ■38 — 24 — 18 — 12 + 15 + 21 + 6 + 5 + 9 + 7 — 2 0 Source: United States Department of Agriculture, Bureau of Agricultural Economics, C r o p P r o d u c t i o n , March 19, 1951. of California and Arizona will have to supply a large share of the increase asked of the nation’s farmers. Weather conditions, of course, will be a significant factor in determining how successful District farmers will be in increasing production. Some District farm areas are already feeling the results of a dry spring season. Late rains in the Pacific Northwest finally broke one of the longest dry spells in April history. Drought conditions prevail over a large portion of northern Arizona. In Cali fornia, water and power in the Sacramento Valley will probably be adequate to see farmers through the season, but a light snow pack in the mountains will require the judicious use of available irrigation water. Water condi tions in the San Joaquin Valley are still less favorable, particularly in the King and Kern County areas. In southern California, however, the situation is much more serious. Underground wrater tables are at extremely low levels and reservoirs much below capacity. District citrus output The District citrus area suffered no damaging weather this past winter, in contrast to the previous two seasons. Present conditions indicate that the over-all District citrus crop will be slightly larger than last year. California orange growers will probably produce about the same amount of fruit as in the previous season. The Navel har vest in central California counties is practically completed and has progressed rapidly in the southern area. Though the Navel crop is somewhat smaller than last season, a larger harvest of Valencias will make the total orange crop about equal to 1950— but about 12 percent below the 1940-49 average. The size of California oranges is larger this year than in any year in the past five years. Califor nia’s lemon crop will be about 12 percent larger than last year. Arizona’s output of grapefruit, however, is antici pated to be about 12 percent below the 1950 harvest. District ranges and livestock Source: United States Department of Agriculture, Bureau of Agricultural Economics. Prospective range and summer feed conditions are widely varied in the District. On the southern ranges of April 1951 M O N T H L Y REVIEW Utah and Nevada, moisture for grass growth has been seriously lacking, and in many areas a shortage of stock water has existed. Considerable feeding of hay or supple ments has been required. Poor range feed conditions pre vail in northern Arizona. Many cattle have had to be shipped from the area as the outlook for feed and stock water grew worse. Much of this stock has gone to Mon tana for pasture. Conditions of southern Arizona ranges are somewhat better, varying from fair to good, but addi tional moisture is needed. In Idaho, Oregon, and Wash ington, on the other hand, range feed is in from fair to good condition, but it will mature later than usual in some sections. Northern California livestock ranches received plentiful rains through the early winter and grass made rapid growth. During the last 30 days, however, range feed in this area has suffered noticeably from lack of spring moisture and from dry winds. Pasture in the cen tral part of the state is maturing early but the grass is short. Southern California received only sporadic rains throughout the entire season and ranges are considerably below average conditions. Twelfth District sheep numbers, which increased in 1950 for the first time in nearly a decade, are expected to increase again during the current year. The demand for breeding ewes is strong throughout the range area. The outlook for continuing high prices of both wool and lambs will encourage District sheepmen to expand their opera tions once again. The movement of Arizona lambs is well on its way with shipments going primarily to mid-western and eastern centers. Lambs from this area are expected to average lighter than last season. In California, spring lambs are being marketed and the bulk of the crop will be shipped during the next 30 days. Average weights of lambs will be slightly less than in 1950, though their gen eral finish is reported to be the best in a number of years. A larger share of District meat supplies will be pro duced within the area in 1951. As contrasted to a year ago, when cattle on feed were considerably fewer than in the previous season, record numbers of cattle are now being finished in District feed lots. Up to the present, the cattle feeding situation has been favorable. Feed costs were sat isfactory in relation to rising slaughter prices. Particu larly sharp increases in the number of cattle on feed are noticeable in Arizona and California dry lots. It is yet too early to tell what effect the recent meat price regulations will have on the number of cattle District feeders will plan to fatten in the future. The announced rollback on live cattle prices was not to go into effect until May 20 and the new price ceilings on beef at wholesale levels on May 9. The announcement of beef price ceilings was quickly fol lowed by a downward movement of livestock prices at terminal markets, which was most pronounced in the lower grades. Current prices, however, have firmed since the initial flurry and some of the price drop has been re gained. It is likely that some fed cattle will be marketed before reaching their best marketable weights in order to realize on them before any future rollbacks materialize. 33 Poultry On March 1, 1951, poultry growers expressed inten tions of purchasing 4 percent fewer chicks for flock re placements than last year. In addition, the number of potential layers on farms at the beginning of this year was 3 percent less than on January 1, 1950. This, com bined with the record low stocks of shelled eggs and a small supply of frozen eggs, indicated at that time a smaller supply of eggs for 1951. Subsequent events have changed the picture. The rate of lay so far this year has been 2.5 percent higher than last year, which should help to offset the smaller size of the present laying flock. Fur ther augmenting the supply of eggs for immediate con sumption has been the absence of the Government price support program which diverted over 6.5 million cases of eggs from commercial distribution in the first half of 1950. Although feed prices have risen, egg prices have ad vanced faster in the past few months, making for a favor able egg-feed price ratio. In response to these favorable prices, producers placed larger orders for chicks for March and April delivery than they had originally in tended. Incubators had 10 percent more eggs on March 1 than last year, and hatcheries had 24 percent more orders for April. These increased orders will be reflected in larger laying flocks this fall. The high chick orders in January and February were mainly for broiler flocks. It is expected that a record supply of broiler meat will be available. It seems unlikely that total egg production will differ significantly from 1950. On the basis of currently high red meat prices and an ticipation of increasing consumer demand, turkey pro ducers in the nation have indicated intentions of increas ing slightly the number of birds they will raise. This, plus the 3 percent increase in breeding hens on hand, promises a record supply of turkey meat for 1951. The increase in actual meat output, however, will not be so great as this might suggest, owing to the increasing proportion of small breed turkeys being raised. Twelfth District growers, however, remembering their 1950 experience of relatively high feed costs and low prices, are planning a 5 percent decrease in production. Dairy production Milk production in the United States was at an annual rate of 121.5 billion pounds during the early months of this year, compared with 123 billion pounds for the com parable period in 1950. Production is expected to increase seasonally in the next few months, but no expansion of dairy herds is envisioned. The number of cows and heifers two years old and over kept for milk was essentially un changed during 1950. Dairy product prices are low rela tive to beef and hog prices. In addition, rising feed grain prices, expanded markets for cash crops, and a probable tightening of the supply of skilled labor are all unfavor able to expansion of dairy herds. Milk production for 1951 as a whole will perhaps be slightly below that of 1950. 34 April 1951 FE D E R A L R ESER VE B A N K OF S A N F R A N C IS C O B U S IN E S S IN D E X E S — T W E L F T H D IS T R IC T 1 (1935-39 average = 100) In d u strial pro d u ction (ph ysical v o lu m e )2 Year and m o n th P e tro le u m 9 L um ber C rude R e fin e d C e m e n t Lead* C opper3 W heat flour3 W a terb o rn e T o ta l C ar D ep’t foreign m f 'g loadings store Retail tra d e3*• e m p lo y (n u m food sales E le c tr ic m e n t4 ber)2 power (v a lu e )2 prices3*5 E x p o r t s I m p o r t s 1929................. 1931................. 1933................. 1934................. 1935................. 1936................. 1937................. 1938_________ 1939................. 1940................. 1941................. 1942................. 1943................. 1944............... 1945................. 1946................. 1 9 4 7 ................ 1948................. 1949............... 1950................. 148 77 62 67 83 106 113 88 110 120 142 141 137 136 109 130 147 159 151 171 129 83 76 77 92 94 105 110 99 98 102 110 125 137 144 139 147 149 147 144 127 90 81 81 91 98 105 103 103 103 110 116 135 151 160 148 159 162 167 168 110 74 54 70 68 117 112 92 114 124 164 194 160 128 131 165 193 211 202 227 171 104 75 79 89 100 118 96 97 112 113 118 104 93 81 73 98 109 105 113 160 75 26 36 57 98 135 88 122 144 163 188 192 171 137 109 163 154 112 176 106 101 88 95 94 96 99 96 107 103 103 104 115 119 132 128 133 116 104 94 83 82 73 79 85 96 105 102 112 122 136 167 214 231 219 219 256 284 303 333 1950 January_____________ February____________ M arch ______________ April________________ M a y _________________ June_________________ J u ly ............................. August______________ September__________ October_____________ November__________ Decem ber___________ 129 141 160 174 207 181 184 186 176 187 167 168 140 139 138 138 140 142 142 145 148 153 154 154 161 157 151 159 162 170 170 178 177 177 179 173 178 179 201 217 240 244 245 251 248 252 229 229 121 119 125 124 132 118 87 96 104 106 111 118 166 162 168 172 180 172 167 177 175 176 195 195 104 91 91 87 95 105 113 112 105 99 97 120 322 313 299 325 341 331 341 340 339 352 353 345 175 179 184 187r 194r 195r 198 205 207 210r 208 208 96 108 125 135 141 148 125 135 140 131 131 152 1951 January_____________ February____________ 187 171 154 155 176 187 239 255 lOlr 112 181 178 134 121 361 361 212 218 130 124 135 91 70 81 88 103 109 96 104 110 128 137 133 141 134 136 142 134 126 131 ” 88 100 112 96 104 118 155 230 306 295 229 181 187 191 183 196 112 92 66 . 74 86 99 106 101 109 119 139 171 203 223 247 305 330 353 331 353 13 2 .0 10 4 .0 8 6 .8 9 3 .2 9 9 .6 1 00.3 1 0 4 .5 9 9 .0 9 6 .9 9 7 .6 1 0 7 .9 13 0 .9 14 3 .4 142.1 1 46.3 16 7 .4 2 0 0 .3 2 1 6 .1 2 0 9 .6 2 0 9 .8 124 90 72 86 88 86 112 108 107 86 118 76 69 74 103 110 114 82 90 96 ‘ 58 85 57 55 59 *55 78 93 115 130 314r 322 321 333 336 342 454 374 368 343 345 376 2 0 6 .4 2 0 4 .3 2 0 4 .0 2 0 5 .3 2 0 5 .2 2 0 5 .9 2 0 9 .4 2 1 2 .5 2 1 1 .0 2 1 4 .1 2 1 6 .0 2 2 2 .9 44 54 65 57 61 66 59 48 58 62 68 70 103 123 106 108 107 150 110 141 134 148 167 163 420r 375 2 3 0 .8 2 3 0 .2 75 146 B A N K IN G A N D C R E D IT S T A T IS T IC S — T W E L F T H D IS T R IC T (amounts in millions of dollars) C o n d itio n ite m s o f all m e m b e r b an k s7 Year an d m o n th 1929 1931 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 Loans U .S . D em an d and G ov’t d eposits d is c o u n ts s e c u r it ie s a d ju s te d 8 T o ta l t im e d e posits 2,239 1,898 1,486 1,469 1,537 1,682 1,871 1,869 1,967 2,130 2,451 2,170 2,106 2,254 2,663 4,068 5,358 6,032 5,925 7,093 495 547 720 1,064 1,275 1,334 1,270 1,323 1,450 1,482 1,738 3,630 6,235 8,263 10,450 8,426 7,247 6,366 7,016 6,381 1,234 984 951 1,201 1,389 1,791 1,740 1,781 1,983 2,390 2,893 4,356 5,998 6,950 8,203 8,821 8,922 8,655 8,536 9,254 1,790 1,727 1,609 1,875 2,064 2,101 2,187 2,221 2,267 2,360 2,425 2,609 3,226 4,144 5,211 5,797 6,006 6,087 6,255 6,251 1950 February March April M ay June July August September October November December 5,893 5,946 5,914 6,005 6,034 6,162 6,418 6,664. 6,810 6,963 7,093 6,999 6,923 6,896 6,932 6,905 6,810 6,699 6,495 6,452 6,319 6,381 8,311 8,167 8,307 8,354 8,289 8,458 8,627 8,754 8,871 9,018 9,254 6,262 6,303 6,282 6,275 6,315 6,250 6,210 6,213 6,239 6,194 6,251 1951 January February March 7,152 7,184 7,293 6,071 5,811 5,734 9,190 8,834 8,819 6,337 6,352 6,338 B ank rates on short-term bu sin ess loan s9 M e m b e r ban k reserves an d related it e m s 10 Reserve ban k c red it11 _ + — + + — + + + + + + + 3.20 3.35 3.36 + + + + + 3.37 — + 3.29 + 3.37 + + + 3.48 34 21 2 7 2 6 1 3 2 2 4 107 214 98 76 9 302 17 13 39 C oin and C om m ercia l T reasu ry cu rrency in o p era tio n s12 o p e ra tio n s12 c irc u la tio n 11 0 154 110 198 163 227 90 240 192 148 596 - 1 ,9 8 0 -3 ,7 5 1 - 3 ,5 3 4 - 3 ,7 4 3 - 1 ,6 0 7 510 + 472 930 - 1 ,1 4 1 23 + 154 + 150 + + 257 + 219 + 454 157 + + 276 + 245 + 420 + 1 ,000 *+*2,826 + 4 ,486 + 4 ,483 + 4 ,682 + 1 ,329 + 698 482 + 378 + 1 ,198 5 2 28 14 10 3 2 62 56 24 48 + - 34 223 126 199 23 149 102 45 93 21 80 + + + + + + + + + + 7 204 106 170 32 169 125 72 150 42 131 30 32 3 - 59 38 124 + + + 168 6 130 — _ Reserves B ank d ebits index 31 citie s3*11 ( 1 9 3 5 -3 9 = 1 00)2 6 48 + 18 4 + 14 ' + 38 + 3 20 + 31 + 96 + + 227 + 643 + 708 + 789 + 545 326 — 206 — 209 — 65 14 — 175 147 185 242 287 479 549 565 584 754 930 1,232 1,462 1,706 2,033 2,094 2,202 2,420 1,924 2,026 146 97 63 72 87 102 111 98 102 110 134 165 211 237 260 298 326 355 350 395 10 16 4 8 5 0 18 9 10 3 4 1,848 1,842 1,821 1,802 1,836 1,858 1,863 1,893 1,930 1,983 2,026 360 374 361 371 389 382 421 417 428 425 464 68 21 8 2,284 2,206 2,186 455 444 461 + + + + + + + — + 1 Adjusted for seasonal variation, except where indicated. Except for department store statistics, all indexes are based upon data from outside sources, as follows: lumber, various lumber trade associations; petroleum, cement, copper, and lead, U.S. Bureau of Mines; wheat flour, U .S. Bureau of the Census; electric power, Federal Power Commission; manufacturing employment, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and cooperating state agencies; retail food prices, U .S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; carloadings, various railroads and railroad associations; and foreign trade, U .S. Bureau of the Census. # 2 Daily average. 1 N ot adjusted for seasonal variation. 4 Excludes fish, fruit, and vegetable canning. 6 Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Seattle indexes combined. 6 Commercial cargo only, in physical volume, for Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego, Oregon, and Washington customs districts; starting with July 1950, ‘ ‘ special category” exports are excluded because of security reasons. 7 Annual figures are as of end of year, monthly figures as of last Wednesday in month or, where applicable, as of call report date. 8 Demand deposits, excluding interbank and U.S. G ov’t deposits, less cash items in process of col lection. M onthly data partly estimated. 9 Average rates on loans made in five major cities during the first 15 days of the month. End of year and end of month figures. 11 Changes from end of previous month or year. 12 Minus sign indicates flow of funds out of the District in the case of commercial operations, and excess of receipts over disbursements in the case of Treasury „operations. 13 Debits to total deposit accounts, excluding inter bank deposits. r — revised.
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