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MONTHLY
REVIEW
Agricultural and Business Conditions
TENTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT
VoL. 24, No. 10
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY
OCTOBER
31, 1939
Business in the Tenth Federal Reserve District
SEPTEMBER 1939
COMPARED WITH SEPTEMBER 1938
------------·.
Denver•
COLO.
% INCREASE
% DECREASE
i
I
30 40
•
·--------:' KANSA
•II
·--·-··-··--·-··--r-!---
-
10 20
40 30 20 1_0
l(ANS .
I
■
■
I
■
% INCREASE
% DECREASE
40 30 20
Financial
10 20 30 40
10
__ _Bank Debits_
I
F. R. Bk. Clearinp_
■
■
I
■
■
_ .Mem. Bk. Loan,_
...Mem. Bk. Invest._
■
I
· Virtually all of the Hard
Winter Wheat Belt is within the
boundaries of this District and
seeding conditions have been the
most unfavorable in years. Serious lack of moisture nearly
everywhere has either delayed
planting or prevented the germination of seed where sown. The
present outlook for next season's
crop is very poor and there will be
little fall pasturage.
Following the upsurge early in
September, farm prices have generally declined. Wheat and cattle
prices are down only moderately,
but those of corn and hogs have
lost a substantial part of the rise.
With the exception of wheat,
marketings are heavier.
Very warm weather in September hurt department store
sales but in the first three weeks
of October a marked rebound occurred and sales are now running
substantially above a year ago.
Bank deposits, check transactions, and loans continue to rise
but bank investments are lower.
9 MOS. 1939
COMPARED WITH 9 MOS. 1938
BUSINESS
INDICATORS
...Demand Deposits_
__ Life In,. Salee _ _
Trade
■
I
_ Wholesale Sales_.
••
____ Retail Sales_
__Dept. Store Salee_
•
___ Lumber Salee_
M«rketin.g•
____Wheat _ _
-·
•
•
·-•
_ _ Corn _
_
_
_ _Qats _ _
___ cattle_ _
__
_ __ Calves _
___ Sheep _ _
____ Flour_
I
■
_
_ Cattle Slaughter._
_ __Calf Slaughter__
_ Hog Slaughter__
._Sheep Slaughter___
·-•
••
I
Production
Lead Ore Shipments
I
••
___Hoge _ _
•
·--
■
_
__ Crude Petroleum __
■
-1~
4117
I
_ Bituminous Coal_
Zinc Ore Shipments
Con•truction
_ Total Award,_
___Ree. Awards_
I
I
••
•
I
I
•
•
_ Value of Permits_
Mi•cellaneou•
____Rainfall ___ _
Cash Farm Income•
_
Employment_
_
Pay RolJa _ _
*For prnlous month
•
•
I
■
2
REVIEW OF AGRICULTURAL AND BUSINESS CONDITIONS
Member Bank Operations
Loans at reporting member banks in the Tenth
District, which had shown a marked increase early in
September, rose gradually further from the middle of
September to the third week of October. Commercial
loans continued to increase, but at a less rapid rate,
while holdings of open market paper and security
loans declined rather sharply. The recent decline in
investments leveled off during this period, a further
decrease in holdings -of Government bonds and of
obligations guaranteed by the Government and a
decline in holdings of "other" securities being about
offset by a further increase in holdings of Treasury
bills and notes. Loans are 14 per cent larger but investments are 6 per cent smaller than a year ago.
Deposits at reporting member banks rose to new
record levels in the third week of October. Correspondent balances carried at other banks and reserve
balances carried at this bank also rose to a new high.
Adjusted demand deposits are 9 and deposits of other
banks at these reporting banks 17 per cent larger than
a year ago while correspondent balances are 21 and
reserve balances 26 per cent greater.
Principal items of condition of 51 member banks :
Change from
Oct. 18 Sept.13 Oct. 19
1939
1939
1938
(In thousands of dollars)
Loans and investments-total... ...... 655,546
+2,149 +10,633
Loans-total... .................................... 283,290
+2,476 +35,088
Coml., indust., agric ........................ 173,682
+4,543 +24,691
Open market paper.......................... 16,662
-2,080 -1,690
To security brokers and dealers. ... 3,176
-193 -1,083
. Other to purchase or carry secur..
9,532
-463 -2,526
· Real estate loans.............................. 25,568
+62 +3,357
Loans to banks.................................
535
+131
-86
All other loans................................. 54,135
+476 +12,425
Investments-total ........................... 372,256
-327 -24,455
U.S. Treasury bills......................... 9,908
+3,974
*
U.S. Treasury notes....................... 84,148
+1,254
*
U. S. Govt. bonds............................. 94,489
- 570
*
Oblig. guar. by U.S. Govt ............., 52,210
-2,057 +3,147
Other securities ............................... 131,501
-2,928 +6,369
Reserve with F. R . Bank. .................. 198,857
+6,258 +40,417
Balances with domestic banks ........ 356,605 +21,382 +61,235
Demand deposits-adjusted ............ 538,987 +12,676 +43,313
Time deposits ..................................... 144,557
+973
+985
_U.S. Govt. deposits ........................... 23,050
+12 +2,523
Interbank deposits ............................ 437,764 +14,612 +63,685
*Comparable figures not available.
Reserve Bank Operations
Note circulation of this bank has risen further,
reaching a new high level of 178¾ million dollars in
the second week of October and averaging 1781/3 million during the first half of the month as compared
with an average of about 176 million in September
and 173½ million in August. Circulation is better
than 12 million above this time last year.
This ·bank's participation in the System's holdings
of ·G overnment securities, which had been increased
by about 12½ million dollars in the first half of September, subsequently was reduced.
Principal items of condition of the Federal Reserve
Bank of Kansas City and branches:
Change from
Oct. 19
Oct.18 Sept. 13
1939
1938
1939
(In thousands of dollars)
-7,331 +37,663
364,938
707
+219
+418
Zero
Zero
16
-212
201
-3
-20
576
+47
120,536 -12,800
+7,287
528,448 -19,643 +44,715
178,219
+2,446 +12,144
276,113
+8,387 +46,258
Total reserves .............................. .
Bills discounted ........................... .
Bills purchased............................ .
Industrial advances .................... .
Commit. to make indust. adv ......
U .S. Govt. sec., direct & guar ... .
Total assets .................................. .
F. R. notes in circulation............ .
Member bank reserve deposits ..
Dollar volume of check collections increased somewhat more than seasonally during September, rising
8 per cent above a year ago. So far in 1939, dollar
volume is 5 per cent above 1938.
Check collections through this bank and branches:
ITEMS
1939
September............ .
August .................. .
Nine months ..........
5,698
5,907
53,213
AMOUNT
1939
CTn thousands)
5,679
$ 980,561
5,862
938,104
52,283
8,321,090
1938
1938
$ 908,852
919,924
7,927,463
Bank Debits
Bank debits in reporting District cities, which
usually decline in September, increased nearly 8 per
cent during that month. However, debits in this District in September were only 8 and so far this year are
only 2 per cent above a year ago as compared with increases of 14 and 5 per cent, respectively, for the
country as a whole.
Payments by check in thirty District cities:
Albuquerque, N. Mex ....... .
Atchison, Kans .................. .
Change from
Sept.1939 Aug. 1939 Sept. 1938
( In thousands of dollars)
16,223
+1,291
+2,514
3,208
+412
+394
BartlesviUe, Okla ..............
30,799
+572
+1,638
Casper, Wyo ...................... .
Cheyenne, Wyo ................. .
Colorado Springs, Colo .... .
Denver, Colo ...................... .
Emporia, Kans ...................
Enid, Okla .......................... .
Fremont, Nebr .................. .
Grand Junction, Colo ....... .
Guthrie, Okla .................... .
Hutchinson, Kans ............. .
Independence, Kans ......... .
Joplin, Mo ...........................
Kansas City, Kans ............ .
Kansas City, Mo ............... .
Lawrence, Kans ................ .
Lincoln, Nebr .................... .
Muskogee, Okla ................ .
Oklahoma City, Okla ........
Okmulgee, Okla ................ .
Omaha, Nebr ..................... .
Pittsburg, Kans ................ .
Pueblo, Colo ....................... .
Salina, Kans ...................... .
St. Joseph, Mo ....................
Topeka, Kans .................... .
Tulsa, Okla ........................ .
Wichita, Kans ................... .
6,224
8,576
17,012
172,361
3,211
11,287
2,703
4,304
1,451
12,153
2,420
10,563
15,449
349,358
3,459
29,942
8,853
97,581
2,580
160,069
3,530
20,260
8,977
29,456
16,324
115,187
44,498
+899
-125
+2,685
+10,841
+ 560
-1,359
+146
+ 398
+143
+1,209
-125
+1,008
-960
+49,921
+48
+2,164
+1,861
+6,661
+293
+ 13,485
+263
+5,522
+1,714
+3,660
-2,856
-13,742
-438
+363
- 631
+1,591
+17,539
+ 110
+917
+281
+ 622
-323
+2,386
-84
+1,311
+404
+53,594
+309
+2,718
+846
+3,827
-76
+24,019
-129
-6,501
+955
+3,528
+1,043
-27,044
+2,802
District, 30 cities................
United States, 141 cities...
1,208,018
+86,151
+88,923
33,664,165 +3,050,981 +4,138,889
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY
Trade
RETAIL SALES
Dollar volume of sales at reporting department
stores in the District showed less than the usual
seasonal rise during September, owing largely to unseasonably warm temperatures. September sales,
however, were 3 per cent above a year ago as compared
with an increase of less than 2 per cent for the first
nine months of the year, and sales in the last week of
September and the first half of October were more
than 10 per cent above last year. Retail prices currently tend upward and are slightly above a year ago.
Stocks of merchandise increased seasonally during
September but remain appreciably under the level of a
year ago. Collections on open accounts averaged 43.6
per cent in September as compared with 42.8 per cent
last year, while installment collections averaged 15.8
and 14.9 per cent, respectively.
Department store sales and s:P6cks inieing c7·tie.
SALES /
TOCKS
S t.'39 9 Mos.'39
ept. 30, '3
No. of . comp.to comp. to
comp. to
.Stores Sept.'38 9 Mos.'38 Aug. 31,'39 Sept.30,'38
(Per cent increase or decrease)
Denver............... 4
+11.7
+3.0
+6.2
-3.4
Kansas City...... 5
+1.2
+2.5
+7.6
-6.9
Oklahoma City. 3
-1.2
+4.0
+11.3
-0.1
Omaha ................ 3
-0.2
-0.2
-0.6
-2.9
Tulsa .................. 4
-1.7
-0.3
+5.0
+4.0
-0.3
Zero
Wichita .............. 3
Other cities ....... 19
+o.7
- 0.7
+7.8
-3.5
/.
District.............. 41
~
+2.9
+1.6
+6.0
-3.5
Total retail sales in the District in September were
6 and in the first nine months of the year 4 per cent
larger than in the corresponding periods last year.
Sales of independent retail stores reported by the
Department of Commerce:
Sept. 1939 per cent change from Sept. 1938
Colo. Kans. Mo. Nebr. N.Mex. ~ Wyo.
Apparel... ........ -1.8 +5.2 +1.4 +8.0 +4.2 -1.2 +LO
Automobile ..... +18.1 +14.8 +26.0 +27.1 -10.3 +15.2 +20.2
Country genl.. +2.1 +2.8 +9.2 +6.1 +3.0 -7.5 +15.5
Department.... +5.0 +2.5 +4.2 -1.7 -2.4 -1.2
Drug................ +2.2 -0.9 +5.6 +7.3 +2.6 +0.1 -8.3
Furniture........+17.1 +0.7 +9.7 +16.0 -5.1 -1.4 +2.8
Grocery ........... +3.1 +3.0 +5.3 +4.5 +10.6 +4.7 +2.8
Hardware ........ +7.7 +4.4 +12.4 +23.6
.... +14.6
Lbr. & mtls ..... - 0.4 +6.7 +23.9 +1.8 +6.8 +4.9 -4.0
Total... ............. -f-5.3
---- -+4.5 +7.2
+7.5
-+0.3
- -+3.0
-
+5.7
WHOLESALE SALES
The value of September wholesale sales in the District was 15 per cent larger than that for either the
preceding month or the corresponding month a year
ago, it being the first substantial 'increase for any
month this year over 1938. Virtually all wholesale
lines shared in this increase. Wholesale inventories
rose about 4 per cent during the month to a level about
the same as that at the close of September a year ago.
Collections in September averaged 61.5 per cent of receivables as compared with 67.4 per cent last year.
8
Wholesale sales and stocks reported by the Department of Commerce for this District:
SALES
STOCKS
Sept.'39 9 Mos.'39
Sept. 30, '39
No.of comp.to comp. to
comp. to
Firms Sept.'38 9 Mos.'38 Aug~ 31,'39 Sept.30,'38
-(Per cent increase or decrease)
Auto. supplies.... 6
-6.8
+0.7
+1.1
-6.1
Drugs ................... 13
+5.0
Zero
+2.5
+3.1
Dry goods ........... 7
+6.5
-1.3 .
-5.7
-13.2
Electrical goods.10
+32.3
+14.9
-7.1
-2.7
Farm products... 12
+5.7
+14.9
-5.3
Furniture............ 5
+29.6
+11.1
+6.8
+10.6
Groceries ............. 35
+20.1
-1.4
+12.0
+3.3
Hdwe.-total... ... (12) +10.5
+4.9
-2.4
Zero
General.............. 3
+3.8
+2.7
-3.7
-3.0
Industrial.......... 4
+8.9
+8.1
+3.0
+13.4
Plbg. & htg ....... 5
+39.5
+8.9
Jwlry.& opt.gds. 3
+30.2
+3.7
+0.9
Machinery........... 3
+20.2
Paper & prod ...... 3
+24.3
Tobacco & prod .. 5
+1.6
-2.9
All other lines .... 15
-2.2
+3.8
-1.5
-1.4
Total... ................ 129
+14.8
+o.5
+3.6
-0.2
Crops
Crop production in the District the past season was
generally much below that of a year ago. Redt,1ced
output of wheat and oats was due principally to a
smaller acreage, while corn, cotton, grain sorghums,
and other late crops except in irrigated sections were
seriously damaged by mid-summer and late:..season
heat and drought.
Department of Agriculture crop estimates for the
seven states wholly or partly in this District:
Winter wheat, bu .............. .
Spring wheat, bu .............. .
Corn, bu .............................. .
Oats, bu .............................. .
Rye, bu ............................... .
Barley, bu .......................... .
Grain sorghums, bu .......... .
Tame hay, tons ...................
Flaxseed, bu ...................... .
Broomcorn, tons .................
Cotton, bales .......................
Dry beans, 100 lb. bags .....
Sugar beets, short tons .....
White potatoes, bu ........... .
Sweet potatoes, bu ........... .
Apples, bu .......................... .
Peaches, bu ........................ .
Pears, bu ............................ .
Grapes, tons .......................
Oct.1
Final
Final
Aver.
1939
1938
1937
'28-'37
--(In thous'inds ofu?rits)
245,509 314,092 326,253 266,026
5,051
10,338
8,314
8,589
261,494 311,320 274,900 410,249
107,048 172,587 149,497 150,360
5,921
6,701
6,300
4,038
41,341
47,434
28,770
30,177
36,282
45,290
38,709
33,955
8,803
9,010
8,359
9,846
984
395
351
314
19
24
28
32
962
995
1,340
1,226
2,467
2,689
2,342
2,119
3,281
3,796
3,486
3,705
30,404
31,137
36,307
36,497
2,360
2,865
2,620
2,546
4,135
3,296
5,477
4,491
3,627
2,345
4,696 . 2,652
1,012
534
1,362
984
25
17
23
21
A critical situation has developed with respect to
winter wheat seeding, conditions for which are the
poorest in many years. One of the most severe and
widespread droughts of record occurred in September
over the principal winter wheat area and topsoil mois-ture in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska at the first
of October was less than a sixth and subsoil moisture
less than a third of normal. Moderate rains in the first
week of October were sufficient to relieve temporarily
the acute drought situation and permitted farmers to
REVIEW OF AGRICULTURAL AND BUSINESS CONDITIONS
4
resume seeding operations but up to the middle of
October less than two-thirds of the intended acreage
had been sown. Wheat that had been seeded in dry
soil does not have sufficient moisture to sprout and
wheat that has sprouted is showing very thin and
spotted stands and needs additional moisture to carry
it along. In general wheat is in poor condition to survive the winter.
Rainfall
COLORADO
Denver..........................
Leadville.......................
Pueblo...........................
Lamar..................... ·-····
Garnett..................... _...
Steamboat Springs .....
Sept.1939
9 Mos.1939
Total Normal
Total Normal
~ inche~
.99
6.42 11.72
.48
11.55 15.36
.89
1.39
.32
7.92 10.15
.75
1.04
1.23
8.34 13.63
.29
4.36
5.86
.75
2.96
1.86
16.01 17.70
KANSAS
Topeka ........... ·-·-·-···-·····
Iola ................................
Concordia.....................
Salina............................
Wichita .........................
Hays ..............................
Goodland....... ·-···········-·
Dodge City...................
Elkhart.........................
.40
.50
.60
.30
.30
.42
.58
.10
.12
3.82
4.85
2.60
2.72
3.09
2.27
1.56
1.90
1.74
19.34
22.59
18.27
15.84
25.74
14.86
15.71
11.05
7.86
28.63
31.40
22.96
23.07
25.13
20.51
16.05
17.91
14.47
.42
.54
.41
3.92
4.56
3.92
22.27
30.64
32.52
29.80
31.03
35.61
.41
.26
.70
.12
.25
.20
.42
.67
3.21
2.98
3.09
2.92
1.70
1.35
1.36
1.30
17.14
17.34
15.71
16.06
13.73
10.73
12.07
15.93
23.60
24.03
24.58
23.11
17.15
16.28
14.19
16.63
.88
2.53
2.36
1.65
1.45
1.22
9.85
10.94
6.54
14.25
11.67
7.34
.15
.31
.06
1.07
.13
.09
Trace
3.32
3.46
3.05
3.18
2.91
3.06
2.80
22.91
26.28
23.34
20.90
17.76
22.44
18.69
30.67
33.55
24.92
27.31
22.27
24.94
21.11
.49
.98
~64
.75
1.20
1.24
.92
1.27
9.14
6.83
7.57
15.69
12.96
12.05
9.99
12.72
MISSOURI
St. Joseph ............... _.....
Kansas City.................
Joplin............................
September grain receipts at five District markets:
Wheat
NEW MEXICO
Clayton .........................
Santa Fe.......................
Farmington...... ·-······--·
OKLAHOMA
Tulsa .............................
McAlester· -····-·····-·······
Oklahoma City........ -...
Pauls Valley ................
Hobart..............·-···-···-·Enid ............ ·-·····-··-·······
Woodward ............. ·-·····
WYOMING
Cheyenne......................
Casper..........................
Lander ..........................
Sheridan.......................
Grain Marketing
Wheat marketings declined further during September as growers and country elevators continued to
hold wheat despite the sharp advance in prices that
took place early in the month. Wheat receipts remained in substantially smaller volume than a year
ago and were little more than half the September
average of the past ten years. There was a sharp increase, however, in marketings of corn, receipts of
which were nearly three times what they were a year
ago and 12 per cent above average.
Oats
Hutchinson ___ -·······--···-·--·--_.
Kansas CitY·-·-····-···-·-·····---Omaha_.. _._ .. _.......... __ . __ ... _.... .
St. Joseph _·--·······-··-·····---···Wichita ..................... __ _....... .
1,025,000
2,646,000
1,002,000
370,000
1,198,000
1,209,000
1,426,000
141,000
17,000
170,000
428,000
550,000
9,000
Sept. 1939..... _......................
Aug. 1939............................
Sept. 1938............................
9 Mos. 1939.........................
9 Mos. 1938.........................
6,241,000
7,483,000
9,072,000
147,293,000
150,838,000
2,793,000
891,000
1,007,000
14,867,000
17,565,000
1,157,000
937,000
1,044,000
8,394,000
8,898,000
Cash grain prices rose sharply in the first week of
September following the outbreak of war in Europe
and then declined. Wheat prices, however, have receded only slightly and are still somewhat above the
Government loan rate but corn prices have lost the
greater part of their advance and again are considerably below the loan level. The strength in wheat prices
is due in part to exceptionally unfavorable seeding
conditions for winter wheat and to the fact that much
wheat either is going into storage under Federal loans
or is being used to pay crop insurance premiums,
while weakness in corn prices results mainly from
burdensome supplies.
The lower range of cash prices at Kansas City:
NEBRASKA
Omaha..........................
Lincoln ..........................
Norfolk .........................
Grand Island ................
McCook .........................
North Platte................
Bridgeport...................
Valentine......................
Corn
(In bushels)
No. 1 hd., dk. wheat, bu,_
No. 2 mixed corn, bu,_.. _..
No. 2 white oats, bu,-·--···
No. 2 rye, bu·-············-·····
No. 2 barley, bu .............. .
No. 2 white kafir, cwt .....
Oct. 24 Sept. 30
1939
1939
$ .83
$ .83¼
.48 ¼
.48¾
.36¼
.32½
.53
.55
.49
.48½
.95
1.05
Aug. 31 Sept. 30
1939
1938
$ .67
$ .64¾
.45½
.47¼
.30¾
.26
.44
.41
.42
.39
1.04
.90
Livestock
MARKETINGS
Marketings of livestock, stimulated by higher prices
following the outbreak of war and to some extent by
drought as well as usual seasonal influences, increased
substantially during September, the increase in hog
receipts being contrary to the usual trend. Cattle
marketings were 11, calves 22, and hogs 40 per cent
larger than a year ago but sheep marketings were 7
per cent smaller. Receipts of cattle and sheep were
very little below the September ten-year average and
calf receipts were 9 per cent above while hog receipts
remained about 40 per cent below average.
September livestock receipts at six District markets:
Cattle
61,248
199,514
45,921
121,175
33,907
26,834
Calves
7,964
44,169
21,929
13,513
5,567
10,009
Hogs
25,243
143,911
48,500
102,158
56,616
37,708
Sheep
530,570
154,132
21,931
194,695
88,548
30,511
Sept. 1939 ................... 488,599
Aug.1939 ............. ·-··-·· 385,289
Sept.1938 ................... 439,138
9 Mos. 1939 ................. 2,838,909
9 Mos. 1938................. 2,881,057
103,151
74,372
84,883
549,242
544,256
414,136
394,895
295,843
3,701,334
2,866,882
1,020,387
771,346
1,101,540
5,559,756
5,864,261
Denver.. _.....................
Kansas City... _............
Oklahoma City......... _.
Omaha.·-······················
St. Joseph ......... ····-·····
Wichita ....... ·········-······
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY
5
PRICES
and ranges in western areas have been seriously damThe spectacular advance in livestock prices during aged by fall drought.
the first week of September was followed by a rather
Lamb feeding operations during the 1939-40 feedsharp reaction when receipts increased, dressed meat ing season are expected to be considerably larger than
markets turned lower, and the buying wave subsided. last year in Corn Belt states but smaller in western
Lambs and hogs lost about half their upturn and cattle states, particularly in Colorado where indications early
a small part of their advance. Livestock prices, how- in October were for the smallest number on feed since
ever, are still substantially above August lows, being 1927. A rather sharp reduction from last year apsupported in part by higher prices for such by-prod- pears probable also in the Scottsbluff feeding area of
ucts as hides, lard, and wool. Beef steer prices are Nebraska and Wyoming. A year ago there was a very
about equal to a year ago and lamb prices are con- heavy movement of lambs after October 1 into Oklasiderably above last year but hog prices again are homa and Kansas to be fattened on winter wheat pasunder last year's level.
ture but this year very little wheat pasturage so far is
Top livestock prices at the Kansas City market:
available.
Oct. 24 Sept. Aug. Sept. Sept. Sept.
1939 1939 1939 1938 1937 1936
- - (In dollars per hundredweight)-Beef steers _______ ____ _ 11.00 11.85 10.35 11.50 17.25
9.75
Stocker cattle ______ _ 10.00 10.50
9.50
8.75
9.25
7.50
Feeder cattle ________ _
9.00 10.35
8.65 10.00 12.00
8.60
Calves ____________________ .
10.00 11.00
9.50 10.00 10.50
9.00
Hogs ______________________ _
6.65
8.75
6.55
9.00 12.25 11.25
Sheep. ___________________ _
7.25
7.00
7.00
6.60
9.25
7.60
Lambs ________________ ___ _
9.50 10.50
9.15
8.50 11.75 10.25
STOCKERS AND FEEDERS
The rise in fat livestock values, together with increased market supplies of stocker and feeder animals
and abundant, relatively low-priced feed, resulted in
a much larger than usual increase during September
in the movement of cattle, calves, and sheep from
markets to the country. Shipments were considerably
in excess of those in September a year ago, with cattle
28, calves 91, and sheep 6 per cent above the ten-year
average, while hog shipments remain at a level about
half of normal. There was also a heavy movement
direct to feed lots in addition to stocker and feeder
shipments from public markets.
September stocker-feeder shipments:
RANGES AND PASTURES
Severe drought and abnormally high temperatures
during September caused a marked decline in the condition of ranges and pastures over the lower half of
the Great Plains from southern Nebraska to Texas.
This area received less than a fourth of normal rainfall
and large sections had practically none. Although
cattle and sheep have held up well in flesh, the short
feed situation in this area indicates heavy marketings
of livestock this fall, particularly from localities where
winter grazing is practiced, the movement already
having begun much earlier than usual. On the western slope of Colorado and in sections of Wyoming and
New Mexico that had adequate rainfall, there was
marked improvement in ranges and a stronger tendency to increase livestock numbers.
Farm Income
Cash farm income in the District both in August
and in the first eight months of the year was about 3
per cent above a year ago. The increase is due largely
to substantially heavier Government payments. AuHogs
Sheep gust income from crops was 9 per cent larger than last
Calves
Cattle
Denver________________________ _ 29,117
17
182,240
3,966
Kansas City _____________ __ _ 107,138
24,843
3,492
45,607 year but income from livestock was 4 per cent lower,
Omaha ________________________ _
85,838 while for the year to date receipts from crops have
49,656
7,446
698
St. Joseph __________________ _
2,440
743
36,560 been 6 per cent smaller and from livestock little
8,958
Sept. 1939____ _______________ 194,869
38,695
4,950
350,245 changed from last year. So far this year, Government
Aug. 1939___ _____ ___________ _ 128,926
21,824
4,377
224,345
Sept. 1938___________________ 172,531
17,876
2,448
310,290 payments represent 13 per cent of total income as
9 Mos. 1939_________________ 759,267 158,177
38,893
977,204 compared wth 9 per cent in the same period in 1938,
9 Mos. 1938_________________ 699,386
83,224
33,307
788,341
receipts from crops 23 against 26 per cent, and returns
According to the Department of Agriculture, cattle from livestock and its products 64 against 65 per cent.
feeding operations during the coming winter are exDepartment of Agriculture farm income estimates:
Aug.
Aug.
8 Mos.
8 Mos.
pected to show an increase over last year in Missouri
1939
1938
1939
1938
and other central and eastern Corn Belt states but any
( In thousands of dollars)
increase infeeding in Corn Belt states west of the Mis- Colorado _____________________ _
9,711
9,602
64,198
63,349
_________________ ______ _
23,325
22,184
173,978
173,328
souri River is likely to be small. The number of cattle Kansas
Missouri_ ____________________ _
21,769
21,904
150,845
152,850
fed this year in western states is indicated to be Nebraska ___________________ _ 17,944 18,769
148,559
131,845
Mexico _______________ _
2,545
2,174
18,395
16,829
smaller than last, with the possibility that feeding in New
Oklahoma __________________ _
13,020
12,480
104,780
106,354
important irrigated feeding areas east of the Rocky Wyoming _____ _________ _____ _
4,725
3,294
22,402
18,941
Mountains may be materially reduced. Except in
Seven states______________ _
93,039
90,407
683,157
663,496
Missouri, the corn crop in this District was very short United States_____________ 643,000 628,000 4,594,000 4,612,000
6
REViEW OF AGRtctJLTtJRAL AND :BUSINESS CONDITIONS
Meat Packing
The heavy diversion of market supplies of cattle
and calves in recent months from slaughter to ranges
and feed lots continued through September. Despite
increased marketings, packers' purchases of cattle
were little changed from a year ago and calves were
considerably smaller. Purchases of hogs remain much
above and sheep somewhat below last year, both being
in line with receipts. The slaughter of cattle was 22,
calves 37, hogs 40, and sheep 14 per cent below the
September ten-year average.
September packers' purchases at District markets:
Denver......................
Kansas City.............
Oklahoma City........
Omaha......................
St. Joseph .................
Wichita .....................
Cattle
15,858
65,931
17,485
60,997
22,440
9,987
Sept.1939 .................
Aug.1939 .................
Sept.1938 .................
9 Mos.1939 ..............
9 Mos. 1938..............
192,698
187,869
189,201
1,503,013
1,567,023
Calves
2,669
11,295
12,583
6,010
3,161
5,322
41,040
37,600
46,363
302,359
370,748
Hogs
20,803
130,899
32,010
87,225
50,906
34,745
Sheep
44,885
95,340
8,169
100,958
51,271
12,538
356,588
334,513
261,793
3,226,500
2,536,910
313,161
268,050
336,956
2,765,770
2,862,049
Cold Storage Holdings
After allowing for usual seasonal changes, United
States cold storage stocks of meats, lard, poultry,
butter, and cheese continued to decline rather sharply
during September. October 1 holdings of beef were
38, pork 13, miscellaneous meats 9, lard 10, shell eggs
12, and cheese 5 per cent below the average for that
date during the past five years, which includes the
drought period, while stocks of lamb were 34, poultry
6, frozen eggs 10, and butter 9 per cent above average.
United States cold storage holdings:
Beef, lbs.................................
Pork, lbs .................................
Lamb and mutton, lbs..........
Poultry, lbs............................
Miscellaneous meats, lbs.....
Lard, lbs.................................
Eggs, shell, cases.................
Eggs, frozen (case equiv.) .
Butter, creamery, lbs ...........
Cheese, all varieties, lbs ......
Oct. 1
Sept. 1 Oct. 1 Aver.
1939
1939
1938
'34-'38
--(In thousands of units)-36,980
33,027
36,943 59,859
300,696 360,932 277,231 344,640
3,031
2,459
2,318
2,271
63,151
62,870
59,942 59,748
59,228
65,985
52,774 65,180
78,472 110,378
89,946 87,552
5,429
6,598
4,765
6,159
3,471
3,884
3,150
3,164
154,571 172,825 210,703 142,421
116,618 125,019 140,755 123,134
Flour Milling
Operations at southwestern flour mills averaged
nearly 90 per cent of capacity during September when
output was the largest for any month of record, exceeding production in September a year ago by 21 per
cent and the September ten-year average by 26 per
cent. Flour sales were in large volume in the first
week of the month and shipping directions both on old
and new business were quite urgent throughout the
month, particularly in the case of jobbers and wholesalers as they sought to build up stocks that had been
depleted by heavy consumer purchases immediately
following the outbreak of war. Toward the end of
September and early in October sales declined abruptly and production was lighter.
Flour output reported by the Northwestern Miller:
Sept.1939
Kansas City.................... .
Salina ............................... .
Wichita .............................
Other cities ..................... .
777,000
232,000
206,000
1,447,000
Change from
Aug. 1939 Sept. 1938
( In barrels)
+ 125,000
+ 118,000
+23,000
+4,000
+17,000
+36,000
+292,000
+304,000
Southwest........................
2,662,000
+457,000
+462,000
United States*................
7,330,000 +1,238,000
+980,000
*Represents about 64 per cent of total output in United States.
Petroleum
Following the shutdown of wells in Kansas, Oklahoma, and New Mexico during the latter half of
August, crude oil production in the District increased
substantially during September but stopped nearly
25 per cent short of the level of output in earlier
months this year. September production was 17 per
cent below the ten-year average and 21 per cent
smaller than last year.
Oil production reported by the American Petroleum
Institute and the Bureau of Mines:
Sept. 1939
Aug. 1939
Sept. 1938
Gross D. Av. Gross D. Av. Gross D. Av.
----( In thousands of barrels)
Colo..................
109
3.6
127
4.1
93
3.1
Kans................
3,953 131.8
3,156 101.8
4,821 160.7
N. Mex............. 2,612
87.1
1,747
56.4
2,883
96.1
Okla................. 10,133 337.8
7,343 236.9 14,079 469.3
Wyo.................
1,894
63.1
1,876
60.5
1,748
68.3
--
5 States........... 18,701 623.4
U.S .................. 102,498 3,416.6
14,249 459.7
80,865 2,608.6
23,624 787.5
98,661 3,288.7
The sharp decline in stocks of crude petroleum that
attended the shutdown of wells leveled off during
September when production was resumed. The current level of stocks is 12 per cent below that prior to
the shutdown and 20 per cent below a year ago.
Coal
Bituminous coal production in the District showed
a further seasonal increase during September. Output
for September was about 4 and for the first nine
months of the year 3 per cent larger than last year.
Coal output estimated from reports of the National
Bituminous Coal Commission:
Sept.1939
Colorado.......................... .
Kansas and Missouri.. ....
New Mexico .................... .
Oklahoma ........................ .
Wyoming ......................... .
522,000
530,000
98,000
182,000
550,000
Six states.........................
United States..................
1,882,000
37,695,000
Change from
Aug.1939 Sept.1938
(In tons)
+127,000
+10,000
-5,000
+110,000
-8,000
+3,000
-11,000
+31,000
+120,000
+92,000
+391,000
+3,007,000
+78,000
+5,409,000
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY
Zinc and Lead
Shipments of zinc ore from the Tri-State district
were little changed during September while those of
lead declined. Demand is firm but the low level of
stocks is limiting the amount of ore available for delivery. The zinc shipment fell 7 and lead 12 per cent
below a year ago.
September shipments from the Tri-State district:
ZINC ORE
LEADORE
Kansas...........................
Missouri.........................
Oklahoma......................
Tons
Value
9,854 $ 381,162
3,247
127,417
19,624
765,609
Tons
Value
1,138 $ 70,881
250
15,479
2,279
143,006
Sept.1939......................
Aug. 1939.......................
Sept.1938......................
9 Mos. 1939....................
9 Mos. 1938....................
32,725 $1,274,188
32,256 1,010,221
35,035
986,760
290,072 8,949,282
276,476 7,575,304
3,667 $ 229,366
4,048
232,389
4,164
227,753
43,855 2,414,835
38,095 1,914,764
Zinc prices showed a further advance of $12.50 and
lead $6.50 a ton during September, rising to the highest level in about two years. Several mines have reopened and production expanded early in October.
Employment and Pay Rolls
Industrial employment and pay rolls in the District
rose nearly 4 per cent from the middle of August to
the middle of September. Employment is about 3 and
pay rolls 5 per cent higher than a year ago.
Preliminary figures of the Department of Labor:
September 1939
per cent change from
August 1939
Employment Pay Rolls
Colorado......................................................
+9.4
+5.5
Kansas ........................................................:
+1.2
+3.1
Missouri......................................................
+3.8
+2.6
Nebraska....................................................
+2.8
+9.3
New Mexico................................................
+9.4
-3.8
Oklahoma....................................................
+1.4
+2.7
Wyoming....................................................
+0.2
+o.5
Seven states................................................
+3.7
Value of construction awards in the Kansas City
area (Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and western half
of Missouri) in September was only 4 per cent above
a year ago, a substantial increase in awards for public
works and utility construction being nearly offset by
a much smaller volume of awards for residential and
commercial building. Total awards for the first nine
months of the year show an increase of 6 per cent.
Construction figures of F. W. Dodge Corporation:
Residential building......... .
Nonresidential building... .
Public works construction
Utility construction......... .
Kansas City area...............
Sept.
Sept.
~
12,748
12,309
9 Mos.
9 Mos.
1939
1938
(In thousands of dollars)
3,019
3,521
30,367
23,940
3,931
5,118
28,370
29,478
3,696
2,377
20,463
25,522
2,102
1,293
16,219
11,429
95,419
PERMITS
1939
Albuquerque, N. Mex ... .
Cheyenne, Wyo .............. .
Colorado Springs, Colo ..
Denver, Colo .................. .
Hutchinson, Kans ......... .
Joplin, Mo .......................
Kansas City, Kans ........ .
Kansas City, Mo ........... .
Lincoln, Nebr ................ .
Oklahoma City, Okla .... .
Omaha, Nebr ................. .
Pueblo, Colo ................... .
Salina, Kans .................. .
Shawnee, Okla ............... .
St. Joseph, Mo ............... .
Topeka, Kans ................. .
Tulsa, Okla .................... .
Wichita, Kans ............... .
90
56
81
863
80
33
37
166
243
182
196
81
26
14
26
61
146
253
1938
77
65
63
777
70
13
42
136
253
177
163
71
23
17
30
59
133
289
September....................... 2,634 2,458
August............................. 2,675 2,270
Nine months ................... 20,105 18,121
ESTIMATED COST
$
90,369
37 E~i;;tern states ............... 323,227 300,900 2,634,802 2,148,112
1939
1938
363,000 $ 153,000
108,000
122,000
111,000
105,000
844,000
1,012,000
212,000
36,000
38,000
29,000
45,000
22,000
223,000
439,000
184,000
128,000
370,000
408,000
764,000
270,000
40,000
81,000
39,000
41,000
4,000
6,000
24,000
39,000
206,000
114,000
377,000
247,000
163,000
498,000
$ 4,115,000 $ 3,750,000
3,316,000
2,917,000
36,877,000 26,004,000
Lumber
Board feet lumber sales at reporting retail yards in
the District declined moderately during September
and fell 7 per cent under a year ago, narrowing the
increase for 1939 to date to only 2 per cent over 19·3s,
Dollar sales of all materials in September were about
6 per cent above last year.
Lumber stocks declined during September and are
now about 7 per cent under a year ago. Collections in
September averaged 33.7 per cent as compared with
32.1 per cent in September a year ago.
Lumber trade at 152 retail yards in the District:
+3.6
Building
~
The value of September building permits issued in
reporting District cities was 24 per cent above that for
the preceding month and 10 per cent above a year ago.
Value of permits so far this year shows an increase of
42 per cent over last year.
September building permits in District cities:
Sales of lumber, board feet.. ......................
Sales of all materials, dollars....................
Stocks of lumber, board feet..... .................
Outstandings, dollars. .................................
Sept.1939
per cent change from
Aug. 1939 Sept.1938
-3.7
-7.1
+ 1.4
+ 5.6
-2.3
- 7.4
-0.7
-3.4
Life Insurance
September life insurance sales in the District were
little changed from a year ago while sales for the year
to date show an increase of about 4 per cent.
The Life Insurance Sales Research Bureau report:
Change from
Sept. 1939 Aug. 1939 Sept. 1938
( In thousands of dollars)
Colorado ..................................... .
4,615
-264
+210
I{ansas ....................................... .
5,587
-282
-25
Missouri ..................................... . 14,467
-1,?17
+982
Nebraska ................................... .
4,816
-545
-11
New Mexico ............................... .
799
-200
-208
Oklahoma .................................. .
6,761
-14
-50
Wyoming ................................... .
887
-171
-438
Seven states...............................
United States.............................
37,932
442,597
-2,693
-37,197
+460
+14,115
REVIEW OF AGRICULTURAL AND BUSINESS CONDITIONS
8
NATIONAL SUM:MARY OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS
By the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
PERCENT
P£RCCNT
140
140
0 0 1 - - - - + - - - -+----1----1--------l-------l 130
120
110
100
90
80
Volume of industrial production, which had turned up sharply last summer, advanced still more rapidly in the six weeks after the outbreak of war.
Employment also increased but at a less rapid rate. Consumption of goods
by industry and by individuals has not expanded so rapidly as production
and orders. Buying of basic commodities, after a burst of activity in early
September, has slackened considerably, but orders for many semifinished
goods and for finished products, particularly machinery and railroad equipment, have continued in large volume. Most orders have come from domestic ·
sources. Prices of basic commodities advanced sharply in the early part of
September, but in recent weeks prices of foodstuffs have declined while prices
of industrial materials in most instances have been maintained. Prices of
finished goods have shown a much smaller advance.
70
60
1935
1934
1936
1939
1938
1937
Index of phys ical volume of production, adjusted for seasonal variation, 1923-1925 average
=100. By months, January, 1934, through Sept ember, 1939.
FREIGHT
CARLOADING$
PERCOIT
PCRCENT
110
110
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
Index of total loadings of revenue freight,
adjusted for seasonal variation, 1923-1925 average=l00. By months, January, 1934, through
September, 1939.
WHOLESALE PRICES
FEF<CENT
FtRa.NT
110
110
100
IOO
t,
90
90
70
FAR
In September the Board's seasonally adjusted index of industrial production advanced to 110 per cent of the 1923-1925 average as compared
with 103 in August and 92 last spring. Increases in output of iron and steel,
flour, sugar, meat products, and petroleum were particularly marked in
September. In the steel industry ingot production rose from an average rate
of 61 per cent of capacity in August to 71 in September. In the first three
weeks of October the rate advanced further to 90 per cent and actual volume
of output was at the highest level on record. Flour production rose to near
record levels and at meat-packing establishments activity was at the highest
rate reached in several years. The sharp increase in output of crude
petroleum followed a considerable reduction in the previous month and
currently production is at about the high rate prevailing before wells were
closed in the latter half of August.
In other industries increases in activity, though quite general, were not
so marked. Automobile production showed a sharp seasonal rise as volume
production of new model cars was begun at most plants, and in related lines,
such as plate glass, activity also increased. Textile production increased
somewhat further from the high level reached earlier. Shoe production,
however, which had been in large volume in the first eight months of the
year, decreased in September. Mineral production advanced generally and
iron ore shipment schedules were expanded to build up stocks at lower lake
ports before the close of the shipping season.
Value of construction contracts, as reported by the F. W. Dodge Corporation, rose further in September, reflecting a contraseasonal increase in
private residential building. Other private construction showed little change
and there was some reduction in the volume of new public projects, both
residential and nonresidential.
DISTRIBUTION
70
In September and the early part of October department store sales increased considerably. Freight carloadings also advanced sharply, with the
most marked increases reported in shipments of coal and of miscellaneous
freight, which includes most manufactured products.
60
COMMODITY PRICES
50
Wholesale prices of foodstuffs declined after the middle of September,
following sharp advances earlier in the month. Prices of industrial commodities, which rose considerably until the third week in September, subsequently were generally maintained, although prices of some materials,
such as steel scrap, hides, and rubber, declined from earlier peak levels.
80
80
PRODUCTION
PRODUCTS
60
50
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
Inde..,ces compil ed by the United States Bureau
of Labor Statistic , 1926=100. By weeks, 1934
through week ending October 14, 1939.
MEMBER BANKS IN 101 LEADING CITIES
IIILLIONS~DOU.AIIS
BILI.IONS ~DOLLARS
12
12
10
6
6
4
BANK CREDIT
Following reductions during the early part of September, Government
security holdings by member banks in 101 leading cities increased somewhat
during the three weeks ending October 11, reflecting largely the purchase
of Treasury bills. Commercial loans continued to increase, but at a less
rapid rate than in late August and early September. The volume of demand
deposits at city banks also increased further.
Excess reserves, which had increased sharply at member banks during
the first half of September, showed further moderate increases during the
four weeks ending October 11.
2
MONEY RATES AND BOND YIELDS
0
0
' 34
1935
1936
1937
193P
19?9
Wednesday figures for reporting member
banks in 101 leading cities, September 5, 1934,
through October 11, 1939. Commercial loans,
which include industrial and agricultural loans,
represent prior to May 19, 1937, so-called "Other
loans" as then reported.
Prices of United States Government securities increased in the latter
part of September and the first half of October, following sharp declines
early in September. Average yields on long-term Treasury bonds declined
from 2.79 per cent on September 21 to 2.62 per cent on October 16. Yields
on Treasury notes declined to 0.78 per cent from 1.30 per cent early in
September.
@FedFRASER