The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
MONTHLY
REVIEW
Agricultural and Business Conditions
TENTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT
VoL. 2.3, No.
FEDERAL RESElt.VE BANK OF KANSAS CITY
10
OCTOBER
31, 1938
Business in the Tenth Federal Reserve District
SEPTEMBER 1938
COMPARED WITH SEPTEMBER 1937
WYO.
-
%
!
i
Denver•
COLO.
:
·--------:' KANSA
I
I
-·-1•
%
DECREASE
40 30 20 10
.. _____ t_ ___ ,
l{ANS.
I
I
·--------·--·-··-r-.!---
There were not many signs of
improving conditions in the past
month. Cash farm income is more
than 30% under last year and
many lines of activity feel the influence of this adverse condition.
Wholesale and retail trade show
no improvement.
Production of crude petroleum is
more than 20% under last year and
crude prices have recently been
reduced 20 cents a barrel. Zinc
and lead ore shipments are not
increasing.
Demand deposits are about
where they were a year ago, but
loans, investments, and check
transactions average more than
10% lower. Life insurance written
is 10% below last year and business
failures have increased.
The best record is being made by
construction. Building permits and
contracts awarded continue thei.r
gains over a year ago. Lumber
sales are also increasing. Cattlemen
report satisfactory conditions due
to an abundance of feed, cattle in
good flesh, and favorable prices.
INCREASE
10 20
30 40
··-,.1•
I
■-I
. Demand Deposits ...
..... Life Ins. Sales _____
•
Trade
.... Wholesale Salee ___
_______ Retail Sales _____
■
I
.. Dept. Store Sales._
...... Lumber Sales ___
Marketings
I
···-·--·Wheat._____
+81
········-·-·Corn .._____
.. ........_ .. Oata _____
-•
■
■
I
•
•
···-········Cattle.. ______
·---···•··Calves .... _. ___
·········-··Hogs._________
___ _____ Sheep ________
Production
·····-··-··Flour______
... Cattle Slaughter___
__ .. CalC Slaughter ___
.....Hog Slaughter___
. Sheep Slaughter.._
Crude Petroleum ....
.. Bituminous CoaL..
Zinc Ore Shipments
Lead Ore Shipments
Construction
-·
%
....... Total Award• ---·
........Res. A wards ___
1••
-•
--
1•
■
■
I
.
,
... Value of Permits ....
JU i11cella11eous
_______Rainfall ... ___ _
Cash Farm Income*
.......Employment ____
. ........ Pay Rolla ....- •For prerious month
•
INCREASE
10 20 30 40
••
.. Mem. Bk. Invest •...
I•
••
DECREASE
F. R. Bk. Clearings.
I
I
%
40 30 20 10
.... Mem. Bk. Loans ___
·--·
•
Financial
9 MOS. 1938
COMPARED WITH 9 MOS. 1937
...... Bank Debita ____
I
I•
BUSINESS
INDICATORS
■
--
2
REVIEW OF AGRICULTURAL AND BUSINESS CONDITIONS
=============================================
Member Bank Operations
Loans at reporting member banks in the Tenth"" District rose somewhat from the middle of September to the
third week of October, reflecting increases in nearly all
types of loans. Commercial loans increased slightly,
holdings of open market paper and loans to brokers and
dealers were up about 8 per cent, and "all other" loans
increased about 5 per cent. Investments increased further during the five weeks, reflecting a large increase in
holdings of Government obligations. The decline in both
loans and investments had come to a halt late in June.
Since then investments have risen to the highest level
of the year but loans have risen only moderately. Loans
are 14 and investments 5 per cent lower than a year ago.
Following a considerable rise in the preceding four
weeks, adjusted demand deposits declined from the
middle of September to the third week of October and
there was a large decrease also in correspondent balances
carried with other banks and in reserve balances carried
at this bank. Deposits of other banks at these reporting
banks continued to increase and are at the highest level
this year and about 5 per cent larger than a year ago.
Adjusted demand deposits are about as large and correspondent balances are 56 per cent greater than at this
time last year.
Principal items of condition of 51 member banks:
Change from
Sept . 14
Oct. 20
1938
1937
thousands of dollars)
644,913 +19,090
-62,803
248,202
+5,090
- 40,603
148,991
+1,417
-30,402
18,352
+1,351
-7,047
4,259
+306
-202
12,058
-136
- 2,084
22,211
+90
+1,827
621
+2
- 356
41,710
+2,060
-2,339
396,711 +14,000
-22,200
222,516 +14,410
- 27,630
49,063
+112
-513
125,132
-522
+5,943
158,440
-9,630
-10,212
295,370
- 10,106 +105,417
495,674
-9,537
+3,555
143,572
-346
- 3,631
20,527
+3,319
+9,248
374,079
+4,279
+17,927
Oct . 19
1938
Loans and investments- totaL ...... .
Loans-total. ...................................... .
Coml., indust., and agric .............
Open market paper..................... .
To security brokers and dealers..
Other to purchase or carry secur.
Real estate loans ......................... .
Loans to banks............................. .
All other loans ..............................
Investments- total.. ..........................
U.S. Govt. direct obligations......
Oblig. guar. by U.S. Govt .........
Other securities............................. .
Reserve with F. R. Bank. .............. .
Balances with domestic banks....... .
Demand deposits- adjusted._.......... .
Time deposits ................................... .
U. S. Govt. deposits....·-···················
Interbank deposits........................... .
--zrn
Reserve Bank Operations
Note circulation of this bank shows a small further
increase, averaging nearly 166½ million dollars in the
first three weeks of October as compared with about
165½ million in September and 165¼ million in August.
Volume of discounts and of commitments to make industrial advances also increased slightly from the middle
of September to the third week of October.
In the quarterly reallocation of Government securities in the System's open market account, this bank's
participation was reduced $5,382,000, or 5 per cent.
Principal items of condition of the Federal Reserve
Bank of Kansas City and branches:
Change from
Sept. 14
Oct. 20
1938
1937
7fri thousands of doliars)
327,275
+8,187 +26,067
488
+274
-207
16
Zero
-63
413
-8
-90
529
+ 169
+412
113,249
-5,382
-10,879
483,733
+401 +12,853
166,075
+574
+368
229,855
-6,492
-15,610
Oct. 19
1938
Total reserves..................................
Bills discounted..............................
Bills purchased................................
Industrial advances........................
Commit. to make indust. adv.·-···
U. S. Government securities·--·····
Total resources................................
F . R. notes in circulation..............
Member bank reserve deposits....
Dollar volume of check collections declined slightly in
September although a small increase usually occurs in
that month. Dollar volume continues about 10 per cent
under last year.
Check collections through this bank and branches:
ITEMS
1938
September....................
August ......................... .
Nine months................
5,679
5,862
52,283
AMOUNT
1938
1937
(In thousands)
5,938 $ 908,852
5,865
919,924
53,888
7,927,463
1937
$1,007,276
1,020,468
9,091,508
Bank Debits
Bank debits to individual accounts, after declining
more than seasonally in August, showed a small contraseasonal increase in September. Volume of payments by
check in September was 10 per cent lower and in the first
three quarters of the year 14 per cent lower than in the
same periods of 1937.
Payments by check in thirty District cities:
Albuquerque, N. Mex .........
Atchison,Kans .................... .
Bartlesville, Okla.·---·········
Casper, Wyo ...................... .
Cheyenne, Wyo ...................
Colorado Springs, Colo.._...
Denver, Colo...................... .
Emporia, Kans .................. .
Enid, Okla . ......................... .
Fremont, Nebr ....-...............
Grand Junction, Colo.·-·····
Guthrie, Okla .....·-···············
Hutchinson, Kans .............. .
Independence, Kans.·-·······
Joplin, Mo .......................... .
Kansas City, Kans .............
Kansas City, Mo ................ .
Lawrence, Kans ...................
Lincoln, Nebr.·--·················
Muskogee, Okla.·--·············
Oklahoma City, Okla ........ .
Okmulgee, Okla.._.............. .
Omaha, Nebr...................... .
Pittsburg, Kans .................. .
Pueblo, Colo.·--···················
Salina, Kans.·--···················
St. Joseph, Mo.. _................ .
Topeka, Kans.·---···············
Tulsa, Okla.·--·····················
Wichita, Kans .....................
Change from
Sept. 1938
Aug. 1938 Sept. 1937
(In thousands of dollars)
13,709
-258
-617
2,814
-222
-883
29,161
+2,279
-4,801
5,861
+ 199
-586
9,207
+815
+71
15,421
+1,433
+701
154,822
-2,675
- 16,291
3,101
+224
-365
10,370
- 1,045
- 1,316
2,422
-115
-142
3,682
+559
- 736
1,774
+139
-217
9,767
- 1,444
- 2,386
2,504
+81
- 157
9,252
+560
-1,433
15,045
-235
+755
295,764
- 147
- 46,812
3,150
+97
- 539
27,224
+1,343
- 1,184
8,007
+ 1,499
-274
93,754
- 10,880
- 12,278
2,656
+582
-114
136,050
- 4,674
- 20,586
3,659
+210
-127
26,761
+13,840
+9,388
8,022
-2,473
-1,625
25,928
+1,459
- 2,117
15,281
-2,411
+949
142,231
+14,083
- 10,339
41,696
-27
-3,641
District, 30 cities................
United States, 141 cities....
1,119,095
29,525,276
+12,796
+1,255,103
-117,702
-3,845,369
3
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY
Trade
Wholesale sales and stocks reported by the Department of Commerce for this District:
RETAIL SALES
Dollar volume of September sales at reporting department stores in the District was about 5½ per cent under
a year ago as compared with a decline of 6½ per cent
for the first nine months of the year. Sales increased
seasonally during September but unusually warm weather
late in the month and continuing into October has recently been a deterrent to trade, sales for the first two
weeks of October falling 11 per cent below last year.
Retail prices, according to the Fairchild Index, are about
8 per cent under a year ago.
Stocks of merchandise increased seasonally during
September and are now only 10 per cent lower than a
year ago. Collections on open accounts averaged 42.1
per cent in September as compared with 42.6 per cent
last year, while installment.collections averaged 14.5 and
13.0 per cent, respectively.
Department store sales and stocks in leading cities:
SALES
No. of
Stores
-Denver.................. 4
Kansas City........ 4
Oklahoma City.... 3
Omaha.................. 3
Tulsa.................... 4
Wichita................ 3
Other cities.......... 20
District.................. 41
STOCKS
Sept.'38 9 Mos.'38
Sept. 30, '38
comp.to comp. to
compared to
Sept.'37 9 Mos.'37 Aug. 31,'38 Sept. 30,'37
- - -(Per cent increase or decrease)
-8.1
-7.6
+3.7
-12.2
-6.4
-9.9
+10.3
-12.7
-4.3
-0.9
+13.1
+5.1
+ 10.8
-0.4
+2.5
-8. 7
-0.9
-1.3
+11.4
-2.9
-13.1
-11.0
-11.5
-9.4
+8.0
-12.1
- 5.4
- 6.5
Sept. 1938 per cent change from Sept. 1937
Colo. Kans.
Mo. Nebr. Okla.
-8.1 -21.9 -11.5 =I2.7 -14.2
Apparel.. ............................... .
Country general.. .................. -12.2 -14.3 -13.8 -15.8 -12.5
-8.5 -10.4
-3.4
Department·--······················· +1.7 -12.4
-6.8
-4.9
-0.6
-6.9
-1.2
Drug._ .................................... .
Furn. and appliances............ -16.4 -17.1
-8.5 -16.1 -15.1
-9.9
-6.1 -10.4
-7.5 -10.2
Grocery .............................. .
Hardware·--··························· -24.3 -19.8 -13.5 -19.9 -12.9
-6.2 . -1.0
-8.7 -12.5 -15.9
Lbr. and bldg. mtls.·--·········
Motor vehicle .... ·-················· -27.1 -32.2 -25.8 -31.5 -33.0
-11.5
-16.1
-10.8
-14.3
-11.8
WHOLESALE SALES
The value of September wholesale sales in this District
was about 11 per cent lower than a year ago, approximately the same decrease as that for the year to date.
This decrease reflects not only lower wholesale prices but
also conservative buying policies of retailers thi~ year.
Wholesale stocks also are about 11 per cent under__a year
ago and collections in September averaged 72.6 per cent
against 74.8 per cent last year.
STOCKS
No. of
Firms
-Auto. supplies...... 4
Drugs.................... 10
Dry goods·--······· 3
Electrical goods.. 9
Furniture.............. 4
Groceries .............. 28
Hardware-total...(12)
GeneraL __ ....... 4
Industrial.._..... 3
Plbg. & htg....... 5
Jwlry. & opt.gds... 3
Paper.................... 3
Tobacco &prod... 4
All other lines...... 14
Total... ................. 94
-11.4
-10.8
-1.4
-10.6
Crops
Reflecting the greatly improved moisture situation
the past season, crop output in the District this year
was generally large. A small acreage and late summer
drought, however, materially reduced corn production
below the average from 1927 to 1936 so that this is the
fifth consecutive year of short corn crops in this District.
Crop estimates of the Department of Agriculture for
the seven states, all or parts of which comprise this
District:
Oct. 1
1938
- 9.9
+6.9
September sales for all principal lines of retailing in
the District and total sales for the first nine months of
the year averaged about 12 per cent below a year ago.
Sales of independent retail stores reported by the
Department of Commerce:
Total......................................
SALES
Sept.'38 9 Mos.'38
Sept. 30, '38
comp.to comp. to
compared to
Sept.'37 9 Mos.'37 Aug. 31,'38 Sept. 30,'37
---(Per cent increase or decrease)
-7.1
-13.0
+1.0
+2.0
-5.3
-0.3
-18.9
-21.6
-9.3
-11.7
-31.4
-4.4
-22.4
-16.9
-9.8
-10.2
-8.6
+0.8
-14.0
-17.9
-4.0
+5.3
-6.6
-18.5
-5.2
+8.6
-16.2
-11.4
-4.3
Zero
-31.0
-23.4
-22.2
-14.4
-10.4
+1.0
-14.6
-6.5
-11.1
-25.7
-23.3
-23.5
-5.0
Winter wheat, bu .......
Spring wheat, bu.·-·····
Corn, bu .......................
Oats, bu .......................
Rye, bu .........................
Barley, bu.·---·············
Grain sorghums, bu ...
Tame hay, tons·---·····
Sugar beets, short tons
Cotton, bales·--···········
White potatoes, bu .....
Dry beans, 100-lb.bags
Tobacco, lbs ..-.............
Apples, bu ...................
314,965
10,373
298,340
168,789
6,784
46,516
50,127
9,251
3,578
1,003
32,456
2,142
8,735
4,839
Final
Final
1937
1936
(In thousands ofumts)
325,625
231,725
8,336
7,689
270,972
104,037
149,445
107,033
6,300
4,790
28,412
19,220
38,709
18,258
8,387
7,602
3,486
3,502
1,340
709
36,576
31,727
2,262
1,959
6,275
2,777
9,425
3,948
Aver.
'27-'36
258,677
8,936
454,344
149,834
3,837
29,575
35,625
10,427
3,782
1,215
36,932
2,066
5,261
6,967
Except in Oklahoma, good rains late in August and
early in September gave early planted winter wheat in
the District a promising start and early wheat is up to a
good stand and is furnishing grazing for livestock. Late
planted wheat, however, generally has failed to germinate
or is showing spotted, thin stands. Unusually warm, dry
weather in the latter part of September and in October
dried surface moisture badly, further retarding seeding
operations in Oklahoma and bringing operations virtually
to a halt in central and eastern Kansas. Trade interests
place the fall sown acreage in Kansas at from 12 to 14
million acres.. These figures compare ~th about .17½
million acres seeded in the fall of 1937 and the AAA
allotment of about 11 million acres for 1938.
4
REVIEW OF AGRICULTURAL AND BUSINESS CONDITIONS
Rainfall
C OLORADO
.
Denver ................................
Leadville ............................
P ueblo ................................
Lamar --···························
Garnett ..............................
Steamboat Springs ............
Sept. 1938
9 Mos. 1938
Total Normal
Total Normal
~inches_
)_
3.42
.99
17.45 11.72
4.01
1.39
22.83 15.36
1.80
.75
12.27 10.15
1.79
1.23
16.57 13.88
2.30
.75
8.14
5.86
3.05
1.86
19.11 17.70
KANSAS
Topeka·-·····························
Iola·-···································
Concordia.....: ....................
Salina..................................
Wichita ..............................
Hays·--·······························
Goodland ...........................
Dodge City........................
Elkhart·-··-·························
.37
1.50
1.52
.99
2.62
2.13
.76
2.73
4.55
3.82
4.85
2.60
2.72
3.09
2.27
1.56
1.90
1.74
26.50
40.31
25.43
25.36
30.45
21.78
16.61
18.65
16.16
28.63
31.40
22.96
23.07
25.13
20.51
16.05
17.91
14.47
St. Joseph. ____ ···················
Kansas City·--···················
1.24
1.84
1.60
3.92
4.56
3.92
24.29
33.02
34.57
29.80
31.03
35.61
4.84
2.94
3.24
2.65
1.54
5.41
4.37
1.23
3.21
2.98
3.09
2.96
1.70
1.35
1.36
1.30
27.67
25.71
21.11
20.34
18.93
21.39
18.74
17.81
23.77
23.89
24.58
23.15
17.15
16.12
14.19
16.67
3.83
1.48
1.52
1.65
1.45
1.22
12.64
12.44
6.04
13.76
11.67
7.12
1.22
.61
1.23
1.22
2.83
5.48
1.67
3.32
3.46
3.05
3.18
2.91
3.06
2.80
38.53
40.76
29.34
38.92
23.31
31.57
28.95
30.67
33.55
24.92
27.31
22.27
24.96
21.11
3.33
1.43
.65
.04
1.20
1.24
.92
1.27
15.33
9.16
9.23
14.49
12.96
12.05
9.99
12.72
1
MISSOURI
Joplin ..................................
rate of 50 cents on the 1937 crop and are renewable at
57 cents.
The lower range of cash grain prices at Kansas City:
Oct. 24 Sept. 30
1938
1938
$ .66
$ .64¾
.42½
.47¼
.26
.24½
.43
.41
.39
.37
.70
.90
No. 1 hd., dk. wheat, bu .... .
No. 2 mixed corn, bu........ .
No. 2 white oats, bu.·-·······
No. 2 rye, bu ...................... .
No. 2 barley, bu ................ .
No. 2 white kafir, cwt .........
Aug. 31 Sept. 30
1938
1937
$ .63¾ $1.12 ¾
.70
.49½
.24
.32½
.40
.79
.39
.60
.80
1.14
Marketings of wheat and corn continued in small volume in September although receipts of both grains were
larger than in the same month a year ago. Marketings
of wheat were 29 and corn 64 per cent below the September average during the past ten years. Receipts were
seasonally smaller than in the preceding month.
September grain receipts at five District markets:
NEBRASKA
Omaha................................
Lincoln.-.............................
Norfolk. ___ ·························
Grand Island .....................
M cCook._··-·······················
North Platte ......................
BridgeporL .......................
Valentine............................
NEW MEXICO
Clayton ..............................
Santa Fe·--·························
Farmington........................
OKLAHOMA
Tulsa ..................................
McAlester..........................
Oklahoma City..................
Pauls Valley·---·················
Hobart................................
E nid ....................................
Woodward .........................
WYOMING
Cheyenne............................
Casper................................
Lander................................
Sheridan·--·························
Grain Marketing
Cash wheat prices, which are at a five-year low, have
shown little change since the middle of August except
for a bulge late in September when the war danger in
Europe became acute. With the passing of the crisis, the
pressure of large world supplies again became the dominant influence in the market and wheat prices lost their
advance. In addition to loans on wheat and purchases
of wheat and flour from dealers and mills for relief distribution and for supplying exporters under the subsidy
program, the Government on October 12 extended its
wheat buying to include purchases of eligible wheat at
the loan rate from farmers in this area direct. Cash corn
prices, which are the lowest since 1934, dropped sharply
early in October, adjusting to a new crop basis and reflecting large production again this year and a heavy
carry-over from last year. On October 10, the Government
stated that loans of 61 cents a bushel on the 1938 corn
crop appeared to be in prospect. Loans were made at the
Wheat
Hutchinson ............
Kansas City..........
Omaha................... .
St. Joseph ............. .
Wichita ..................
Sept. 1938 ..............
Aug. 1938...__ ........ .
Sept. 1937............. .
9 Mos. 1938............
9 Mos. 1937..._.......
1,277
4,261
1,802
493
1,239
Oats Rye Barley Kafir
Corn
(In thousands of bushels)
- 1
1
49
332
254
78
56
430
62
109
568
2
102
360
1
4
9,072 1,007 1,044 119 189
20,530 1,206 2,394 322 393
8,361
555 1,295 153 158
150,838 17,575 8,898 1,172
958
159,468 11,855 12,058 1,051 1,587
50
34
70
706
551
Livestock
MARKETINGS
Marketings of cattle, calves, and sheep increased
seasonally further in September and hog receipts showed
a small seasonal decrease. Marketings of sheep were
rather heavy, exceeding the September ten-year average
by 5 per cent, but cattle and calf receipts were 18 and
11 per cent, respectively, below average and hog marketings continue near a record low.
September livestock receipts at District markets:
Denver ......................
Kansas City............
Oklahoma City........
Omaha ......................
St. Joseph ................
Wichita....................
Cattle
64,881
154,902
41,808
119,408
34,447
23,692
Calves
4,959
37,582
19,071
11,153
5,399
6,719
H ogs
18,932
103,940
31,273
72,023
49,727
19,948
Sheep
583,925
142,440
18,653
251,298
96,240
8,984
Sept. 1938................
Aug. 1938·---···········
Sept. 1937................
9 Mos. 1938..............
9 Mos. 1937..._.........
439,138
411,008
481,862
2,881,057
3,239,152
84,883
75,033
108,538
544,256
668,496
295,843
301,137
275,336
2,866,882
2,688,379
1,101,540
828,560
957,883
5,864,261
5,660,098
For the year to date, cattle marketings are 11 and
calves 19 per cent under last year, while hog receipts
show an increase of 9 and sheep of 4 per cent over last
year. In addition to the relatively small number of cattle
available for marketing, the tendency to hold back cattle
to build up drought depleted herds is also restricting
market receipts. The spring pig crop in states of the
District was 19 per cent larger than a year ago and hog
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY
receipts are expected to increase materially this winter
from the low level of a year earlier. Large numbers of
sheep on farms and an increase of 5 per cent in the District's 1938 lamb crop are contributing to the increased
marketings of sheep.
PRICES
Prices of beef steers and hogs, following a rather sharp
decline in August, recovered somewhat in September and
beef steer prices in October have risen to a new high for
the year of $12.50 a hundredweight as compared with
the previous high of $12.35 in the first week of August.
Hog prices in October, however, again turned downward
and have fallen to a new low for the year of $7.40, down
$2.65 from their high at the middle of July. This is the
lowest price for hogs since December, 1934. Lamb prices
have declined fairly steadily since early June. The
advance in cattle and the declines in hog and lamb prices
were partly seasonal in nature. Stocker cattle prices are
strong and are about as high as a year ago but feeder
cattle prices are much lower in sympathy with prices of
finished steers.
Top livestock prices at the Kansas City market:
Beef steers__ ···-·-------··--····--··
Stocker cattle .. ·-···-···-···-····
Feeder cattle......... _........... .
Calves·--··········-··················
Hogs...................... ·-·-····--··-·
Sheep ....................._........... .
Lambs .................·--············
Oct. 24 Sept. Aug.
1938 1938 1938
-(In dollarsper
12.00 11.50 12.35
9.00 8.75 9.00
8.50 10.00 10.75
10.00 10.00 9.50
7.90 9.00 9.90
5.00 5.00 5.50
8.60 8.35 8.75
Sept. Sept. Sept.
1937 1936 1935
hundredweight)17.25 9.75 12.00
9.25 7.50 8.75
12.00 8.60 9.50
10.50 9.00 9.50
12.25 11.25 11.65
8.25 6.60 6.00
11.75 10.25 10.00
STOCKERS AND FEEDERS
Countryward shipments of stocker and feeder cattle,
calves, and sheep showed a further seasonal increase in
September but hog shipments fell off sharply. The movement of cattle was unusually heavy, being 27 per cent
larger than a year ago and 7 per cent above the September ten-year average, but the movement of hogs was less
than half as large as a year ago and only a fifth of normal.
Shipments of sheep, although much larger than a year
ago, were 14 and calves 11 per cent below the average.
September stocker-feeder shipments from four markets:
Denver............. _........................
Kansas City.---·······················
Omaha ..........·······--····-··············
St. Joseph ................................
Sept. 1938 ................................
Aug. 1938·---···························
Sept. 1937................................
9 Mos. 1938._...........................
9 Mos. 1937.__····················-····
Cattle Calves
ol,461
1,150
79,464 11,621
53,154
4,165
8,452
940
172,531
113,022
136,374
699,386
700,675
17,876
11,563
21,003
83,224
93,075
Hogs
593
603
Sheep
118,101
52,552
106,128
33,509
2,448
3,710
5,718
33,307
35,159
310,290
167,702
228,954
788,341
765,904
-rr
1,238
Cattle feeding operations during the coming winter
are expected to show a substantial increase over last year
in Missouri, some increase in Nebraska, Kansas, and
Colorado, and a decrease in Oklahoma. Cattle feeding in
Nebraska and Kansas has been at a very low level in
5
recent years because of the drought reduction in cattle
numbers and in feed grain production. While the corn
crop in these states is again short this year, corn prices
are low in comparison with beef cattle prices, supplies
of hay and roughage are large, and grass and wheat
pastures will furnish good feed. Wheat pastures are good
in Colorado, Nebraska., and Kansas although badly in
need of rain in Kansas. Because of dry weather, wheat
pasture prospects in Oklahoma are not so favorable. A
relatively large number of cattle will be held over during
the winter because of favorable feed conditions.
The number of lambs fed during the 1938-39 feeding
season apparently will be smaller than last year in
Nebraska and Colorado and larger in Missouri. Most
feeders experienced rather heavy losses last season and
contracting of feeder lambs for October delivery was slow
in gettjng under way until late September when the total
was much smaller than at that time last year. Supplies
of both lambs and feed, however, are larger than last
year, prices are lower, and feeder lamb prices are relatively low as compared with feeder cattle prices. A heavy
movement of lambs to wheat pasture in Kansas, depending on growing conditions, would largely offset the expected reduction in grain feeding in both Nebraska and
Colorado.
Farm Income
August receipts from the sale of principal farm products
in the District were 31 per cent less than a year ago.
Income from crops was 51 per cent lower than last year
and income from livestock and livestock products was
15 per cent lower. As would be expected, the most severe
declines occurred in Kansas and Oklahoma where income
from wheat has been greatly reduced. For the year to
date, income from crops is down 35 and from livestock
about 10 per cent and total income is 18 per cent under
last year. Government payments in recent months have
been larger than a year ago but so far this year they are
12 per cent smaller.
Income estimates of the Department of Agriculture:
Change from
Aug. 1938 July 1938 Aug. 1937
(In thousands of dollars)
8,611
+2,193
-3,510
Colorado .......................-····-······
22,049
-19,424
-12,762
Kansas ....................................... .
20,796
-5,665
-7,726
Missouri._ .................................. .
18,369
-12
-7,620
Nebraska................................... .
2,070
+430
-398
New Mexico ............................. .
11,780
- 11,459
-6,653
Oklahoma ................................. .
3,228
+ 1,036
+ 181
Wyoming....................................
Seven states·---·························
86,903
- 32,901
United States............·-·············
614,000
+5,000
NOTE: Government payments not included.
-38,387
-152,000
The purchasing power of farm products advanced
somewhat from mid-August to mid-September when the
ratio of prices received by farmers to prices paid was 78
per cent. A year ago this ratio was 91 per cent.
6
REVIEW OF AGRICULTURAL AND BUSINESS CONDITIONS
Meat Packing
Flour production reported by the Northwestern Miller:
Notwithstanding increased market receipts, packers'
purchases of"cattle and calves declined in September,
reflecting in'.1f part the unusually heavy countryward
movement of.., cattle for stocking or feeding purposes.
Cattle and calf slaughter continue somewhat below a
year ago and hog and sheep slaughter moderately above
last year. The slaughter of cattle was 24, calves 30, hogs
59, and sheep 10 per cent below the September ten-year
average.
September packers' purchases at District markets:
Denver......................
Kansas City........ ... .
Oklahoma City....... .
Omaha ..................... .
St. Joseph ............... .
Wichita ................... .
Cattle
17,225
61,575
21,902
53,448
23,942
11,109
Calves
2,867
15,080
13,170
6,743
4,552
3,951
Hogs
18,831
99,001
18,137
62,803
44,189
18,832
Sheep
60,057
80,574
4,434
124,965
62,003
4,923
Sept. 1938............... .
Aug. 1938·---···········
Sept. 1937............... .
9 Mos. 1938._.......... .
9 Mos. 1937.__........ .
189,201
208,399
217,317
1,567,023
1,666,631
46,363
51,914
72,139
370,748
498,026
261,793
275,911
243,860
2,536,910
2,332,737
336,956
313,277
317,419
2,862,049
2,873,459
Sept. 1938
Kansas City..............................
Salina............................ ·-···········
Wichita ......................................
Other cities ................................
658,000
227,000
171,000
1,144,000
Change from
Aug. 1938 Sept. 1937
(In barrels)
+l,000
+24,000
+1,000
+38,000
+33,000
-34,000
+23,000
-20,000
Southwest.................................. 2,200,000
+58,000
+8,000
United States*···-·········-··········· 6,236,000 + 179,000 +313,000
*Represents about 60 per cent of total output in United States.
Petroleum
Following an increase in the preceding two months
from the low level of June, daily average crude oil
production in the District again declined in September.
Output, although slightly above the ten-year average,
was 21 per cent lower than in September of last year and
total production for the year to date shows a decrease of
19 per cent from 1937.
Oil production reported by the American Petroleum
Institute and the Bureau of Mines:
Sept. 1938
Gross D. Av.
-(In
105
3.5
5,017
167.3
3,180
106.0
13,420
447.3
56.4
1,692
Cold Storage Holdings
Aug. 1938
Sept. 1937
Gross D. Av.
Gross D. Av.
thousands of barrelsr-128
4.2
120
4.0
5,190
167.4
5,918
197.3
2,974
96.0
3,410
113.7
14,616
471.5 18,523
617.4
1,814
58.5
1,719
57.3
United States cold storage stocks of meat and shell Colo.._...........
Kans.............
eggs on October 1 were at near record lows for that date N.
Mex.........
while holdings of butter were the largest of record. Stocks Okla.._...........
of beef were 41, pork 33, miscellaneous meats 22, lard Wyo.·--·········
16, and shell eggs 29 per cent below the October 1 aver- 5 States.......... 23,414 780.5 24,722 797.6 29,690 989.7
age of the past five years while holdings of poultry were u. s............... 97,318 3,243.9 106,165 3,424.7 109,980 3,666.0
4, .butter 56, and cheese 20 per cent above the average.
Stocks of crude petroleum produced in this District
United States cold storage holdings:
have declined steadily since early May and on October 1
Oct. 1 Sept . 1 Oct. 1 Oct. 1
were about 15 per cent lower than a year ago. Continued
1938
1938
1937 5-Yr.Av.
weakness in prices of refined products has resulted in
(In t housands of units)
the
closing of several refineries and in a reduction in
Beef, lbs..................................... 36,870 34,467 38,746
62,710
Pork, lbs..................................... 277,737 334,777 282,534 415,280 crude prices in Oklahoma and Kansas, the first change
Lamb and mutton, lbs.............
2,313
1,861
1,887
2,185
Poultry, lbs............................... 59,950 54,941 61,721
57,795 since January of last year. Effective October 11, the
Miscellaneous meats, lbs. ........ 52,939 60,167 43,858
67,586 posted price of 36 gravity Mid-Continent crude was
Lard, lbs..................................... 90,263 116,620 72,614 107,975
Eggs, shell, cases......................
4,766
5,942
7,058
6,699 reduced from $1.22 to $1.02 a barrel or about the average
Eggs, frozen (case equiv.)._.....
3,148
3,572
4,235
3,067 price in 1934 and,il935.
Butter, creamery, lbs............... 210,351 201,252 118,697 135,223
Cheese, all varieties, lbs ........... 141,120 150,248 117,610
Flour Milling
117,610
Coal
Output of bituminous coal showed a further seasonal
September was the first month this year that south- increase in September. Production in September was
western flour production was larger than in the same only 10 per cent smaller than a year ago while that for
.month a year ago, a fractional gain for September com- the first nine months of the year was 22 per cent less.
Coal output estimated from reports of the National
paring with a decrease of about 7 per cent for the first
nine months of the year. Although flour sales are almost Bituminous Coal Commission:
wholly on a hand-to-mouth basis and the backlog on
Change from
Sept. 1938 Aug. 1938 Sept. 1937
mills' books is substantially below normal as a result of
(In tons)
the continued lack of forward buying, shipping directions Colorado................................. .
524,000 +201,000
- 58,000
535,000
- 24,000
+41,000
improved considerably in September over recent months Kansas and Missouri.. .......... .
107,000
-32,000
New Mexico ............................
+7,000
and flour output was nearly 4 per cent above the ten- Oklahoma................................
188,000
+51,000
-15,000
458,000
-70,000
+45,000
year _average. Early in October the export subsidy on Wyoming..................................
flour was again increased, resulting in some sales abroad. Six states.................................. 1,812,000 +345,000
-199,000
United Stat es.......................... 32,010,000 +3,300,000 -7,167,000
Flour prices continue to decline.
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY
Zinc and Lead
Production of zinc and lead ore in the Tri-State mining
district leveled off somewhat in September. Shipments
of zinc dropped sharply, reflecting in part a holding
tendency by producers for higher prices as buyers continue to take all supplies available, but shipments of
lead were little changed. The zinc shipment was about
21 and that of lead 37 per cent lower than in September
of last year.
September shipments from the Tri-State district:
ZINC ORE
Kansas _________________ _
Missouri.__ ____________ _
Oklahoma ____ ·-······
T ons
13,334
1,090
20,611
Sept. 1938·-·······-··
Aug. 1938__ __ ··-····
Sept. 1937.. ......... .
9 Mos. 1938._······9 Mos.1937... ...... .
35,035
43,001
44,144
276,476
365,563
LEAD ORE
Value
$ 375,745
30,625
580,390
Tons
1,805
212
2,147
986,760
1,193,310
1,919,136
7,575,304
15,215,379
4,164
4,210
6,567
38,095
48,719
$
$
Value
99,069
11,610
117,074
$ 227,753
226,214
493,350
1,914,764
3,584,188
Since the middle of September zinc concentrate prices
have advanced $2.50 and lead about $3.00 a ton to the
highest level in nearly a year. Prices of $32.50 for zinc
and about $58.00 for lead at the middle of October compare with $40.50:and $70.60, respectively, a year ago.
Employment and Pay Rolls
Employment and pay rolls in the District as a whole
rose somewhat further from the middle of August to the
middle of September. Employment and pay rolls are
more than 9 per cent below a year ago and for the year
to date average about 10 per cent lower.
Preliminary figures of the Department of Labor:
Colorado...... ............................... .
Kansas·--····-··········-·-·········-·······-···
Missouri._···········-··-······-···-········-··
Nebraska__ ·········-·---············--·····-·N ew Mexico .... -··-··-··-----····-·------·Oklahoma_ .._.. -·----------·-···········-····
Wyoming·--···--·····-·-·-··-··--····-·-·---·
September 1938
per cent change from
August 1938
Employment
P ay Rolls
+ 2.5
+ 1.5
+1.4
+1.5
+22
- 0.4
+4.0
+ 0.8
+ 0.1
- 2.2
+ 1.8
+ 1.1
+ 1.1
+ 7.3
Building
The value of September building permits, as in the
preceding month, was moderately larger than a year ago,
the September increase measuring about 12 per cent.
The value of permits for the first three quarters of the
year, however, is down 22 per cent.
September building permits issued in District cities:
ESTIMATED COST
1937
1938
71 $ 153,000 $ 77,000
60,000
122,000
71
52,000
105,000
60
1,250,000
1,012,000
541
52,000
36,000
98
19,000
29,000
27
37,000
22,000
43
226,000
439,000
203
131,000
128,000
194
561,000
408,000
194
220,000
170,000
149
41,000
81,000
96
36,000
41,000
23
29,000
6,000
18
14,000
39,000
26
101,000
114,000
82
211,000
247,000
103
152,000
498,000
260
PERMITS
1938
Albuquerque, N. Mex._.__
Cheyenne, Wyo.·····-·--·--·Colorado Springs, Colo ...
Denver, Colo ... ·--··-····-----Hutchinson, Kans ..·--···--Joplin, Mo• --··--········------·Kansas City, Kans· -····--Kansas City, Mo·-··-····--Lincoln, Nebr.....·--·····-·····
Oklahoma City, Okla .....
Omaha, N ebr ...................
Pueblo, Colo.·---·············
Salina, Kans·-··-···············
Shawnee, Okla.·····-····-·····
St. Joseph, Mo ...·-·······-···
Topeka, Kans ..............._.
Tulsa, Okla.·--·············-···
Wichit a, Kans .........·-·--··-
77
65
63
777
70
13
42
136
253
177
186
71
23
17
30
59
133
289
1937
----
2,481 2,259 $ 3,650,000 $ 3,269,000
2,470,000
2,917,000
2,270 2,011
Nine months.. ·-················ 18,121 18,313 26,004,000 33,278,000
September._._··--··-·--···-····-·
August_·-·--·-·-·---················
Lumber
The improvement in building operations in recent
months is being reflected in increased lumber sales which
in September were 13 per cent larger than a year ago.
Because of rather sharp declines in the first half of the
year, however, t otal sales for the year to date are about
5 per cent under last year.
Collections on amounts outstanding averaged 32.1 per
cent in September as compared with 32.0 per cent in
August and 33.0 per cent in September a year ago.
Lumber trade at 156 retail yards in the District:
Sales of lumber, board feet·--···········-········
Sales of all materials, dollars................... .
Stocks of lumber, board feet ................... .
Outstandings, dollars.-··-···························-
September 1938
per cent change from
Aug. 1938
Sept. 1937
+ 0.7
+13.3
- 4.9
-4.7
- 1.3
-10.4
+ 0.8
+4.9
Life Insurance
The value of construction contracts awarded in this
District in September was substantially larger than in
the same month a year ago, principally as a result of
larger awards for non-residential building. So far this
year residential awards are 11 per cent lower but nonresidential awards are only 2 and total awards 5 per cent
lower than in 1937.
Construction figures of the F. W. Dodge Corporation:
TENTH DISTRICT
Residential
Sept. 1938_.......... _
Aug. 1938·- -····-·--Sept. 1937._......... .
9 Mos. 1938____···-·
9 Mos. 193L_.....
7
I
3,431
3,511
2,677
24,921
27,938
37 EASTERN STATES
Total
Residential
T otal
(In thousands of dollars)
10,814
99,574
300,900
313,141
10,667
99,732
207,072
7,352
65,590
2,151,446
90,714
686,322
2,308,523
95,336
736,691
Life insurance sales in the District in September were
10 per cent lower and in the first nine months of the year
13 per cent lower than in the same periods last year.
The Life Insurance Sales Research Bureau report:
Change from
Sept. 1938 Aug. 1938 Sept. 1937
(In thousands of dollars)
Colorado ...... ............................. .
4,405
-375
-601
5,612
- 1,367
-1,556
Kansas____ ·-··--·---·---·····-··-···--···-···Missouri. __ .. _____.__ ...... _. __ .__ ._... __ .. _
13,485
- 2,166
-1,405
4,827
- 346
-304
Nebraska·-····-···-·-··-·--··-··----······1,007
- 86
- 315
N ew Mexico .. _.········---·-··--···-·····
~811
- 940
-349
Oklahoma .. ·-·····--·---·--·--·--------··-·
1,325
+143
+350
Wyoming....... ·--···········-····-·---···-Seven states.---·······--··-·······-·····
United States...·--··-······-·····-·····-
37,472
428,482
-5,137
- 42,435
-4,180
-71,952
REVIEW OF AGRICULTURAL AND BUSINESS CONDITIONS
8
NATIONAL SUMMARY OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS
By the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
--
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
P[ ,. C( NT
140
140
l30
130
llO
120
110
110
100
100
tO
90
10
80
In September industrial production and employment continued to advance, and
there was also an increase in the volume of retail trade. Building activity continued at
the increased level reached in August, reflecting a large volume of awards for publiclyfinanced projects.
PRODUCTION
70
70
eo
60
1934
18'15
1936
1937
1938
Index of physi.cal volume of production,
adjusted for seasonal variation, 1923-1925
average
100. By months, January, 1934,
through September, 1938.
=
FREIGHT
,ucor
CARLOADINGS
PE R C€ NT
110
110
100
100
90
90
80
eo
70
70
to
60
50
50
~ - - -........- - _ _ . ~_ __.__ __ ._ ____,40
19'4
1935
1936
1937
Volume of industrial production increased further in September and the Board's
seasonally adjusted index advanced to 90 per cent of the 1923-1925 average as compared
with 88 per cent in August. There was a substantial rise in pig iron production and
output of steel ingots continued to increase, averaging 45 per cent of capacity. In
the first three weeks of October activity at steel mills showed a further increase and
was at a rate of about 50 per cent of capacity. Plate glass production continued to
advance rapidly in September. Output of lumber and cement was maintained, although
at this season activity in these industries usually declines. Automobile production
in September remained at about the same low rate as in August-in October, however, output increased rapidly as most manufacturers began the assembly of new
model cars. In the nondurable goods industries there were substantial increases in
activity at meat-packing establishments, sugar refineries, and tire factories. Output
of shoes declined somewhat. Textile production, which had been rising sharply since
spring, showed little change in September, although an increase is usual. Activity
increased further at silk mills but at woolen mills there was a decline, and at cotton
mills output did not show the usual seasonal rise.
At mines, coal production increased considerably in September and there was also
an increase in output of copper. Crude petroleum output declined as wells in Texas
were shut down on both Saturdays and Sundays whereas in August only Sunday
shutdowns had been in effect.
Value of construction contracts awarded, which had increased considerably in
August, showed little change in September, according to figures of the F. W. Dodge
Corporation. Awards for private residential building continued at the advanced
level prevailing since early summer and contracts for public residential projects were
also maintained following a rise in the previous month. Other public projects
continued in substantial volume.
EMPLOYMENT
Employment and pay rolls increased further between the middle of August and the
middle of September, reflecting principally increases at manufacturing concerns.
Employment rose sharply at automobile factories and increased moderately in other
durable goods industries. At factories producing nondurable goods there was slightly
more than the usual seasonal rise in the number employed.
19."'8
Index of total loodlngs of revenue freight,
adjusted for seasonal variation, 1923-1925
average
100. By months, January, 1934,
through September, 1938.
=
WHOLESALE PRICES
DISTRIBUTION
Distribution of commodities to consumers showed a more than seasonal rise in
September. There were increases in sales at department and variety stores and
mail-order sales also increased. Department store sales for the first three weeks of
October showed somewhat less than the usual seasonal rise.
Freight carloadings continued to increase in September and the first half of
October, reflecting chiefly a further rise in shipments of coal and miscellaneous
freight.
COMMODITY PRICES
50 _ _ _ __.__ ___._ _ __.__
_
It~
1937
1934
1936
__,__
_
_
50
1938
Indexes compiled by the United States
Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1926
100. By
weeks, 1934 through week ending October
15, 1938.
=
MEMBER BANK RESERVES AND R~TED ITEMS
IIUJOIIS
a, DOU..ARS
PriGes of a number of industrial raw materials, particularly hides and copper,
advanced from the middle of September to the third week of October. Crude oil and
gasoline prices, on the other hand, were reduced. Livestock and meat prices showed
large seasonal declines in this period. In the first half of October there were sales
of many finished steel products at prices below those announced for the fourth
quarter, but in the third week of the month it was reported that prices had been
restored to former levels.
BANK CREDIT
BIL.LIONS Of' DOU.Alli
14
14
During the four weeks ended October 19 there were further substantial increases
in the gold stock of this country. As a result largely of these gold acquisitions and of
net expenditures by the Treasury from its deposits with the Reserve banks, excess
reserves of member banks increased to a total of $3,270,000,000 on October 19.
Demand deposits at reporting member banks in 101 leading cities were also
increased by the inward gold movement and on October 19 amounted to $15,750,000,000, the largest volume ever reported by these banks. Following substantial
increases during September, reflecting purchases of new issues of United States
Government obligations, total loans and investments at reporting banks showed
little change during October,
MONEY RATES AND BOND YIELDS
0R:o...-..o,-.~--L--~~=~-~'---..:_J0
1154
1935
1938
1937
1938
Wednesday figures, January 8, 1934, through
October 19, 1988.
The average yield on long-term Treasury bonds declined from 2.48 per cent on
September 27 to 2.28 on October 21. Yields on Treasury notes and Treasury bills
also declined in the period.
@FedFRASER