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MONTHLY REVIEW Agricultural and Business Conditions TENTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT VoL. 22, No. FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY II OCTOBER 2.9, 1937 Business in the Tenth Federal Reserve District SEPTEMBER 1937 ~OMPARED WITH SEPTEMBIER 193' % i -·-----L--., Denver• COLO. % INCREASE . DECREASE 10 20 30 40 40 30 20 10 I I ·--------:• KANSA I • )(ANS. I • ·-··-··-··-··-·--...-l--- I ••••• • •• •• Financial % % INCREASE DECREASE 40 30 20 10 10 20 30 40 ••• •• • •• • -· . F. R. Bk. Clearinp_ _)(em. Bk. LoaDl- _ )lem. Bk. Inn•t.- _ Demand Deposita_ -Life Ina. Sala- Trade _ Wboleule Sales_. --Retail Salea_ ...Dept. Store SaJea_ I _Lumber Sales._ I Markelin•• _ _Wheat__ -l,S _ __Corn _ _ 55 ______ oata ____ ____cattle__ I The value of construction awards is nearly a third under the same month last year. Department store sales in September were 4 % above last year while for the year to date they are 6% higher. Live stock slaughter continues low. Rainfall in September was 33 % below normal. Farm income is 30 % above a year ago. Other favorable aspects of the situation include good life insurance sales, large output of lead and zinc, crude petroleum, and flour. Bank loans continue to increase, but bank . investments tend lower. BUSINESS INDICATORS __ _Bank Debita __ I Many lines of activity are slower in recent weeks. While the year to date is still appreciably above the same period last year, the advantage of the current month over a year ago is less marked. Prices are distinctly weaker. Hogs are the lowest since April, and cattle, corn, wheat, cotton, and most metals are lower. 9 MOS. 1937 COMPARED WITH 9 MOS. 193' I _ ___Calvea _ _ ■ ---Sheep _ _ _ _ ..Hop _ _ Production -·-•• _ _ Flour_ _ I ••• -Cattle Slausrhter_ _ _Calt Slaughter __ -Hoar Slaughter_ _ _ Sheep Slaughter_ _ Crude Petroleum_ - Bituminoua CoalZinc Ore Shlpmenta +93 Lead Ore Shipmenta Con,truction _Total Awards_ __ Rea. Award.I_ _Value of Permfta_ Mi•cellaneou, ..61 _ _Rafnfal1Caah Farm Income.• I • _Emplo:,menL_pay RoU._ •ll'or pmlOUI month -61 I I -· • •• •• I -· • •• • •• •• •• ■ • 2 REVIEW OF AGRICULTURAL AND BUSINESS CONDITIONS Member Bank Operations Principal items of condition of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and branches: Commercial loans at reporting member banks in Change from the Tenth District, following a decline from the midOct. 20 Sept. 15 Oct. 21 1937 1937 1936 dle of August to the middle of September, have since (In thousands of dollars) increased and in the third week of October are close Total reserves ___________________ 301,208 -12,423 +48,322 to the year's high level of ten weeks earlier. At the Bills discounted _ _ _ _ _ __ 695 + 171 + 542 Bills purchased _______________________ 79 -8 -8 same time, holdings of United States Government Industrial advances _ _ _ _ 503 -77 -347 obligations and of "other" securities showed a fur- Commit. to make indust. adv. ______ 117 -3 -235 U. S. Government securities ________ 124,128 Zero -1,727 ther decrease, with the result that total loans and Total resources _______ 470,880 -17,326 .+48,891 investments continued to decline. The volume of F. R. notes in cir culation _________ 165,707 -1,055 +11,069 loans is 20 per cent larger than a year ago but in- Member bank reserve deposits ____ 245,465 -9,613 +28,690 Dollar volume of check collections declined further vestments are now 7 per cent smaller. Further declines in interbank and other demand in September although a small increase usually ocdeposits were accompanied by a decline in reserve curs in that month. Dollar volume was 6 per cent balances with this bank during t}:le five weeks ended greater than in September last year. Check collections through this bank and branches: October 20. Balances carried with domestic banks ITEMS AMOUNT were also reduced somewhat. Adjusted demand de1937 1936 1937 1936 posits are slightly larger than a year ago but interCTn thousands) bank deposits are 12 per cent and correspondent bal- September _______ _ 5,938 $ 949,099 5,664 $1,007,276 August ______________ 963,467 5,621 1,020,468 5,865 ances with domestic banks 33 per cent lower. Nine months ___ _ 53,888 8,638,213 52,688 9,091,508 Principal items of condition of 51 member banks: Change from Oct. 20 Sept. 15 Oct. 21 1937 1937 1936 (In thousands of dollars) Loans and investments-totaL_ 707,716 -12,119 +15,517 Loans-total - - - --- - - 288,805 + 1,967 +48,200 Coml., indust., agric~ - - - 179,393 + 1,394 • Open market paper _ _ _ _ 25,399 -854 • To secur ity brokers and dealers 4,461 +3 -172 Othertopurchaseorcarrysecur. 14,142 -146 • Real estate loans 20,384 +431 +2,809 Loans to banks_ _ _ _ _ 977 +171 -1,707 All other loans _ _ _ _ _ 44,049 +968 • Investments-total ________ 418,911 -14,086 -32,683 U. S. Govt. direct obligations __ 250,1 46 -15,965 -12,822 Oblig. guar. by U. S. Govt.____ 49,576 +5,139 -525 Other securities _____________ 119,189 -3,260 -19 ,336 Reserve with F. R. Bank ____________ 168,652 -8,027 +23,296 Balances with domestic banks __ 189,953 -9,423 -91,745 Demand deposits-adjusted ___ 492,119 -12,906 +1,614 Time deposits _ _ _ _ _ _ 147,203 +745 +1,014 U. S. Govt. deposits______________ 11,279 -1,507 -11,587 Interbank deposits _ _ _ __ 356,152 -15,722 --47,967 *Comparable figures not available. Reserve Bank Operations Federal Reserve note circulation of this bank has risen slightly further, reaching a new high level of 168%. million dollars at the turn of October when the demand for currency is normally at its highest point during the month. Circulation continues about 7 per cent above a year ago. Following a reduction of the rediscount rate of this bank to 11/2 per cent early in September, holdings of bills discounted for member banks have increased somewhat althoqgh the volume of discounts is stilJ small. Since January, 1934, discounts have not risen above a million dollars. There has been no change in total holdings of Government securities since last April. Bank Debits Debits to individual accounts by banks in reporting centers declined seasonally in September. Payments by check for September were 12 per cent larger and for the first nine months of the year nearly 15 per cent larger than in the corresponding periods of 1936. Payments by check in thirty cities: Albuquerque, N. Mex. __ Atchison, Kans. _________ _ Bartlesville, Okla. ______ _ Casper, Wyo. _ __ Cheyenne, Wyo. ________ _ Colorado Springs, Colo. Denver, Colo. _ __ Emporia, Kans. __________ _ Enid, Okla. _ _ __ Fremont, Nebr. ______ _ Grand Junction, Colo. ___ Guthrie, Okla. _______ _ Hutchinson, Kans. _______ _ Independence, Kans. ___ _ Joplin, Mo. _ _ __ Kansas City, Kans. ____ _ Kansas City, Mo. ________ _ Lawrence, Kans. ________ _ Lincoln, Nebr. _________ _ Muskogee, Okla. ________ _ Oklahoma City, Okla. __ Okmulgee, Okla. ________ _ Omaha, Nebr. _ __ Pittsburg, Kans. _____ Pueblo, Colo. ____________ _ Salina, Kans. _ __ St. Joseph, Mo. _________ ___ _ Topeka, Kans. _____________ _ Tulsa, Okla, _--.-------------Wichita, Kans. ______________ Change from Sept.1937 Aug.1937 Sept.1936 (In thousands of dollars) 14,326 -19 +2,544 3,697 +58 +468 33,962 - 3,467 +8,019 6,447 +392 +424 9,136 +37 +2,064 14,720 +1,146 -713 171,113 +2,130 +14,397 3,466 -514 +348 11,686 -2,267 + 1,926 2,564 -205 -282 4,418 +826 +769 1,991 +27 +592 12,153 - 1,172 + 129 2,661 -202 + 271 10,685 +577 +1,120 · 14,290 -774 +1,547 342,576 -32,817 +35,639 3,689 -198 , +434 28,408 +353 +726 8,281 + 589 + 790 106,032 +3,500 +21,592 2,770 +295 +26 156,636 --4,510 -1,428 3,786 +245 +110 17,373 +416 +3,976 9,647 -2,343 -33 28,045 -360 -558 14,332 -4,539 - 1,244 152,570 --4,476 +3.5,765 45,337 -2,561 +4,187 District, 30 citi~s______ 1,236,797 --49,833 United States, 141 cities 33,359,763 +1,473,994 +133,555 +118,201 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY Trade Wholesale sales and collections reported by the Department of Commerce for this District: DEPARTMENT STORE SALES Despite the slowness of the fall buying season in getting under way, dollar volume of sales at reporting department stores in this District showed about the usual seasonal increase in September. However, sales were only 4 per cent larger than a year ago while prices are about 8 per cent higher. In the preceding month, sales · had shown an increase of 7 per cent over last year and for the year to date they show an increase of 6 per cent. Retail prices, reflecting the continued decline in wholesale prices, declined in September for the first time in more than a year, according to the Fairchild Retail Price Index. Stocks of merchandise increased seasonally in September but their value is only about 6 per cent larger than a year ago. Collections on open accounts averaged 41.4 per cent of receivables in September this year and 41.3 per cent last year, while installment collections averaged 12.8 per cent and 13.5 per cent, respectively. Department store sales and stocks in leading cities: SALES No.of Stores Denver _____ 4 Kansas City__ 4 Oklahoma City 3 Omaha ___________ 3 Tulsa ___________ 4 Wichita ________ 3 Other cities __ 20 District __________ 41 STOCKS Sept. '37 9 Mos. '37 Sept. 30, '37 comp. to comp. to comp. to Sept. '36 9 Mos. '36 Mo. Ago Yr. Ago (Per cent increase or decrease) +1.8 +6.8 +4.1 +9.9 -1.6 +6.2 +6.9 +0.1 +10.1 +4.5 +8.o +6.2 +o.4 -1.2 +1.1 +9.7 +18.8 +10.6 +9.6 +1.7 + 10.3 + 14.9 + 2.6 + 11.1 +6.0 +4.8 +7.6 +3.1 +4.2 +6.9 8 +6.1 +6.8 WHOLESALE SALES The value of wholesale sales in this District rose about 11 per cent in September, sales of drugs increashig 16, furniture 20, groceries 11, hardware 13, and paper about 4 per cent. Sales have recently begun to show a rather marked improvement over last year, September -sales showing an increase of better tl!an.15 per cent in comparison with an increase of only 7 per cent for tl?,e preceding month and for the first nine months of 1937 over 1936. SALES Sept. '37 9 Mos. '37 COLLECTIONS* No. of comp. to comp. to Sept. Aug. Sept. Firms Sept. '36 9 Mos. '36 1937 1937 1936 (Per cent change) (Median percentages) Drugs _ _ _ 9 + 15.4 + 5.4 83.4 88.2 80.5 Furniture ____ 3 +9.2 +7.4 47.2 44.6 46.4 Groceries __ :_ 6 +13.6 +7.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 Hardware ______ 4 +20.8 +2.3 50.5 62.1 46.8 Paper _ _ _ 3 +16.7 +10.7 68.6 62.6 69.7 All other lines 11 + 15.1 + 19.9 67 .5 61.0 61.0 District _______ 36 +15.2 +7.0 73.5 71.4 77.7 *Collections on amounts receivable at beginning of month. Crops Crop production in the District this year, while varying considerably from state to state, is substantially heavier than in 1936 and the production of wheat, rye, grain sorghums, cotton, and all fruits compares favorably with the average amounts harvested from 1928 to 1932. The corn crop, however, was less than half of normal, partly the result of a below normal acreage, and other crops range from 10 to 25 per cent below average. Crop estimates of the Department of Agriculture for the seven states, all or parts of which comprise this District : Oct. 1 1937 Winter wheat, bu. _____ _ Spring wheat, bu, _________ Corn, bu. _ _ _ __ Oats, bu. _ _ _ __ Rye, bu. _ _ _ __ Barley, bu. Grain sorghums, bu. ____ _ Tame hay, tons _ __ Sugar beets, short tons_ Cotton, bales White potatoes, bu. _____ _ Dry beans, 100 lb. bags __ Tobacco, lbs. ________________ _ Apples, bu. _ _ __ Peaches, bu. _______ Pears, bu. _ _ __ Grapes, tons _ __ Final Final Aver. 1936 1936 '28-'32 (In thousands of units)-324,184 231,726 162,994 326,136 10,408 7,689 9,106 9,506 270,654 104,037 260,533 675,646 152,973 107,033 186,753 176,977 5,988 4,790 7,209 3,820 29,449 19,220 29,701 38,839 40,836 18,258 31,674 39,137 8,676 7,602 10,887 11,032 3,355 3,502 2,976 4,062 1,358 709 819 1,427 33,588 31,727 40,689 40,452 2,020 1,959 2,400 2,260 4,995 2,777 4,150 6,836 9~92 3~48 8~10 7~66 4,709 1,551 3,639 2,339 1,315 396 1,366 1,011 23 12 20 21 Weather conditions have generally been ideal for harvestjng operations but unfavorable for the maturing of late crops. Oklahoma has had norinal rainfail the past two months and September rainfall was above norrrial in New Mexico, but elsewhere in the District A weakening in wholesal~ prices since the latter it continues much below normal. Drilling of wheat, part of September has carried the all-commodity which had largely been discontinued early in October index of the Bureau of Labor S~atistics .to its lowest in the western part of the winter wheat belt because point since J anu·ar_y in th~ week ended Octob~r 1(?. of a ralher se.riou~ defide:ricy of~both surface ·a nf:. Wholesale price·s of farrtfpi"oducts and foods showed s_l_!_~_soil__!!lgJst~;r_~, h~~LJ?..een_ J~.~µm~q_J_q)Jowing iecent t~~.mmit _pfo~ou~c~~ :qe~ifoe·s: : ~il~-]iri~~s .~f ~q~t. . rains . .Early sown wheat is·.a:good stand and late.sown.. com1n6dities •· .. . . ·afe-·sofnewharlower .- . . . "'.;' ... :· , ,• ,. .. ~than -,•. .. a··morith . .. . . . •· ·a_g•·o"· ' w}:ieat,,i-ruch 6£whiph)1ad bel:ln plaiited·in dry:soii a'ricf th~y•·a verage about 5 per cent higher-than~ year ·ago. has noFgerminated~ ·should n.ow rria'.ke·rapid' gro-wth. ·. REVIEW OF AGRICULTURAL AND BUSINESS CONDITIONS 4 Rainfall as reported by the Weather Bureau: Sept. 1937 Total Normal COLORADO Denver _ __ Leadville _ __ Pueblo _ __ Lamar _ __ Garnett _ __ Steamboat Spgs._ KANSAS Topeka _______________ _ Iola _ _ __ Concordia ___________ _ Salina _ _ __ Wichita Hays _ _ __ Dodge City ______ Elkhart _ __ Goodland _ __ .56 .68 .35 .23 .84 .75 9 Mos. 1937 Total Normal (In inchesr11.72 .99 8.98 1.39 21.96 15.36 10.15 .75 5.65 1.23 5.42 13.88 .75 5.16 5.86 17.70 1.86 21.39 .43 2.09 1.64 .88 1.80 1.62 .84 1.77 .48 3.82 4.85 2.60 2.72 3.09 2.27 1.90 1.74 1.56 15.93 30.77 16.53 14.92 23.19 15.69 11.17 5.99 11.14 28.63 31.40 22.96 23.07 25.13 20.51 17.91 14.47 16.05 .82 .21 2.83 3.92 4.56 3.92 24.24 21.41 31.46 29.80 31.03 35.61 .80 1.11 2.79 1.55 .97 .89 .65 .93 3.21 2.98 3.09 2.96 1.70 1.40 1.36 1.26 18.67 16.76 18.18 21.25 14.21 10.75 8.06 9.90 23.60 24.04 24.58 23.15 17.15 16.44 14.19 16.39 2.47 2.71 1.35 1.65 1.45 1.22 10.91 14.56 6.76 13.92 10.56 7.18 7.06 1.36 2.90 2.40 3.48 4.40 3.62 3.32 3.46 3.05 3.18 2.91 3.06 2.80 31.86 31.23 17.66 30.20 22.10 24.16 15.10 30.67 33.55 24.92 27.31 22.27 24.96 21.11 .49 .67 .11 .50 1.20 1.24 .92 1.27 10.69 13.40 13.52 12.52 12.96 12.33 9.99 12.72 MISSOURI St. Joseph ________ _ Kansas City _______ Joplin _ _ __ Cash wheat prices had strengthened late in· September but are lower in October, influenced by increased offerings of Russian grain abroad, beneficial rains in sections of the Argentine wheat belt, and a continued slow demand from importing countries, partly the result of unusually high ocean shipping rates. Cash corn prices are sharply lower, adjusting to a new crop basis. Cash grain prices at the Kansas City market: Oct. 20 Sept. 30 Aug. 81 1937 1937 1937 No. 1 hard, dk. wheat, bu. $1.01¾ $1.12¾ $1.06 No. 2 mixed corn, bu. __ _ .591h .70 1.00 No. 2 white oats, bu, ______ _ .311h .321h .30 No.2rye, bu. _ __ .73 .79 .75 No. 2 barley, bu. _ __ .54 .60 .58 No. 2 white kafir, cwt. ___ .98 1.14 1.54 NEW MEXIOO Clayton _ __ Santa Fe _ __ Farmington -------· OKLAHOMA Tulsa McAlester _____ _ Oklahoma City __ _ Pauls Valley ____ _ Hobart ---------Enid _ _ __ Woodward _______ · $1.201h 1.09¼ .45½ .88 .90 1.82 Live Stock NEBRASKA Omaha _ __ Lincoln _ __ Norfolk _ __ Grand Island ___ _ McCook _ __ North Platte ______ Bridgeport Valentine _ __ Sept. 30 1936 MARKETINGS Marketings of calves, hogs, and sheep increased further in September but cattle marketings declined. Cattle receipts were also smaller than in September of last year and hog receipts were a third below a year ago. Receipts of cattle were 10, hogs 62, and sheep 9 per cent below the September average for the past ten years but calf receipts were 18 per cent above the average. It was reported that virtually all cattle shipped into the Blue Stem grazing sections of Oklahoma and Kansas had been marketed by the first of October, fully two weeks ahead of the expiration of pasture leases on October 15. Live stock receipts at six markets in the District: WYOMING Cheyenne _ __ Casper _ __ Lander _______________ _ Sheridan Grain Marketing Denver ________ Kansas City ____ Oklahoma City Omaha ____ St. Joseph _______ Wichita _______ Cattle 58,659 160,299 45,699 166,262 35,961 24,982 Calves 7,245 42,239 23,776 21,346 7,770 6,162 Hogs 18,931 83,820 27,314 81,691 43,920 19,660 Sheep 527,839 125,650 11,959 204,171 78,462 9,802 Marketings of grain were generally in small vol- Sept. 1987 -- ··--481,862 108,538 275,336 957,883 ___ 507,828 102,256 231,338 746,306 ume in September, receipts of wheat representing Aug.1937 Sept. 1936 ____ 493,455 108,144 400,484 886,295 but 62, corn 18, oats 10, rye 74, barley 29, and kafir 9 Mos. 1937___ 3,239,152 668,496 2,638,379 5,660,098 9 Mos. 1936 ______ · 3,286,663 596,173 3,876,277 6,362,382 90 per cent of the September average during the past ten years. Wheat marketings declined further, PRICES reflecting in part the unusually heavy movement of While· there has been a further advance in finished the two preceding months and some holding by pro- cattle prices, the bulk of cattle values tends ·1ower. ducers for better prices. Prime steers because of their extreme scarcity Receipts of grain at five markets in the District_: reached $19 a hundred at Kansas City in the first Wheat Corn Oats Rye Barley Kafir week of October, the highest price at this market ( In thousands of bush e ~ - since December, 1919, and within 25 cents of an allHutchinson ____ 668 1 1 1 Kansas City____ 4,603 244 386 45 34 69 time October high of $19.25 in 1918, but most f~d" 206 700 94 115 Omaha ------·1,531 steers are bringing only $15 a hundred or les~ ·and St. Joseph ______ 584 96 206 12 9 the great _bqlk of cattle is selling at a figure ·s ubstan. . 9 2 1 Wichita -------975 tially below this, the prjce spreacl amounting to ·as 555 1,295 153 158 70 Sept. 198'7 -·- 8,361 449 . 2,851 . 496. 882 82 much as $12 or m.or~~ . ){9.g._anq ._ she~rf prjces .. Md A~. 19.87~..···- 24,220 . Sept. 1986 ~5,852 1,670 888 87 120 87 rallied. ip._the forepart ·_ of . September ·but .incr~ase·d-9 Mos. 1937__ 159,468 11,855 12,058 1,051 1,587 551 9 Mos. 1936~- 110,817 80,400 12,470 785 2,888 1,137 marketings resulted in a subsequent decline in prices. -- FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY Hog prices have declined more than $3 from their August high. Even so, hog prices are at the highest October level since 1928 and cattle and lambs since 1929. Top live stock prices at the Kansas City market: Oct. 20 1937 Beef steers ___ Stocker cattle Feeder cattle Calves Hogs _________ Sheep ___________ Lambs -------- 18.00 9.50 10.50 11.00 10.00 7.00 10.25 Sept. Aug. Sept. Sept. Sept. 19;:$7 1937 1935 1934 H.136 (In dollars per hundredweight) 17.25 17.00 9.75 12.00 10.60 9.25 10.00 7.50 8.75 5.40 12.00 12.40 7.35 8.60 9.50 10.50 10.00 9.00 9.50 6.50 12.25 13.20 11.25 11.65 7.65 8.25 6.50 6.50 6.00 4.50 11.00 11.75 10.25 10.00 6.65 STOCKERS AND FEEDERS Shipments of stocker and feeder live stock to the country showed a further seasonal increase in September. Shipments of cattle and sheep continue to be in much greater volume than a year ago although September shipments were smaller than in other recent years, cattle falling 17 and sheep 42 per cent below the ten-year average. Hog shipments were substantially smaller than a year ago and equal to only half the ten-year average volume. Stocker and feeder shipments from four markets: Denver Kansas City ______________ Omaha St. Joseph _____________ Cattle 21,211 59,365 48,749 7,049 Calves 2,428 10,498 7,111 966 Hogs ~ 2,090 1,626 1,974 Sheep 100,694 28,563 79,162 20,535 Sept. 1937 _ _ _ _ Aug. 1937 _________________ Sept. 1936 ____________________ 9 Mos. 1937_ _ _ 9 Mos. 1936_ _ _ 136,374 132,638 109,264 700,675 573,378 21,003 17,231 19,712 93,075 81,399 5,718 5,712 24,788 35,159 71,342 228,954 199,210 192,368 765,904 720,176 According to the Department of Agriculture, the number of cattle to be fed for market during the winter and spring of 1937-1938 is expected to be considerably larger in Nebraska and Kansas than the number fed a year earlier but much less than in years of average corn product ion in these states. Cattle feeding operations are expected to be considerably reduced from a year ago in western states where the number fed last _year was the largest of record. Abundant supplies and lower prices for cottonseed cake and hulls are expected to encourage larger feeding operations in Oklahoma. A considerable increase in lamb feeding operations except in western states is . also indicated for the 1937-1938 feeding season. It is thought that the number of lambs to be fed jn the Scottsbluff area of Nebraska and Wyoming will be somewhat larger than last year and that some increase over the small number fed last year is probable in ·other parts of . Nebraska. While .t he Iamb, feeding situatfon in .Colo..: radoA-s --yet uncert,ain; early ~fo--October it ~ppears that the number to be fed will be smaller than last 5 year in the Arkansas Valley and about unchanged elsewhere in the state. Remaining unsold supplies of feeder lambs in Wyoming at the middle of October are quite limited and shipments of previously contracted Iambs are moving to feed lots in heavy volume. RANGES AND PASTURES Range and pasture conditions generally showed little change in September. Dryness persists in the western part of Nebraska, Kansas, and Oklahoma and in eastern Colorado, with the result that range feed in this area is rather poor. Range feed is reported good in Wyoming, the mountain and western sections of Colorado and in most of New Mexico. Pastures are only fair in much of eastern Nebraska and Kansas but ranges and pastures in southeastern Kansas and eastern Oklahoma are somewhat better. Rain has greatly improved feed prospects in Oklahoma and New Mexico. Farm Income Cash farm income during August for the seven states, all or parts of which are included in this District, was about 31 per cent larger than a year ago. Continued heavier sales from the larger 1937 crops, especially wheat, was the chief factor in this increase, but income from the sale of live stock and its products was also larger in all states of the District except Nebraska and Wyoming. Government payments were smaller. Total income so far this year is about 15 per cent above the figure for the corresponding period of 1936. By states, Colorado shows an increase of 33 per cent, Kansas 29, Missouri 10, New Mexico 11, Oklahoma 27, and Wyoming 8 per cent, while in Nebraska there has been a decrease of 6 per cent. Income estimates of the Department of Agriculture: Colorado _____________________ Kansas ________________________ Missouri __________________ _ Nebraska _________________ _ New Mexico ______________ _ Oklahoma _________________ Wyo ming ------------------- Live stock and Govt. Crops Products Payments Total --(In thousands of dollars) 6,362 5,759 62 12,183 17,491 17,320 98 34,909 9,134 19,387 879 29,400 9,615 16,274 100 25,989 661 1,807 44 2,512 10,095 8,338 140 18,573 560 2,487 30 3,077 Aug. 1937 -------------------- 53,918 July 1937 -------------------- 105,977 Aug. 1936 ---------------25,517 8 Mos. 1937__________________ 266,939 8 Mos. 1936_______________ 163,936 71,372 54,189 68,313 473,681 487,148 1,353 2,600 3,089 69,284 52,261 126,643 162,766 96,919 809,904 703,345 Prices received by farmers are now somewhat lower than a year ago but prices_paid by farmers for what they ·buy are Jiighet _s_o _that th~ ratio :of _prices received· to--prices paid •is only 91 as compared ·with-. 98 a year ago. 6 REVIEW OF AGRICULTURAL AND BUSINESS CONDITIONS Meat Packing Packers' purchases indicated little change in the slaughter of cattle and calves and a moderate increase in hog and sheep slaughter during September. The slaughter of cattle, calves, and hogs continues much below a year ago, and that of cattle was 14 and of hogs 59 per cent below the September tenyear average. While sheep slaughter is larger than a year ago, it is still 16 per cent below average. Packers' purchases at six markets in the District: Denver Kansas City ____ Oklahoma City Omaha St. Joseph ____ Wichita ___________ Cattle 18,793 69,195 20,849 72,263 23,913 12,304 Calves 4,664 26,743 17,817 11,202 5,583 6,130 Hogs 18,864 76,238 23,699 68,186 38,187 18,686 Sheep 64,812 79,253 5,719 103,816 68,427 5,392 Sept. 1937 ____ Aug. 1937 ________ Sept. 1936 _____ 9 Mos. 1937____ 9 Mos. 1936_____ 217,317 222,085 283,169 1,666,631 1,944,932 71,139 69,055 89,251 497,026 481,310 243,860 203,990 314,570 2,332,737 3,230,801 317,419 272,012 291,842 2,873,459 2,601,089 Cold Storage Holdings output being only 3 per cent larger than last year while output for the first nine months of the year shows an increase of 11 per cent over that in the corresponding period of last year. Flour production reported by the Northwestern Miller: Sept.1937 120,000 634,000 189,000 205,000 1,044,000 Atchison -------------------------Kansas City _ __ Salina Wichita ________ Other cities _ _ __ Change from Sept. 1936 ( In barrels) -10,000 +3,000 +93,000 +56,000 -8,000 +1,000 -19,000 +15,000 -71,000 -16,000 Aug. 1937 Southwest _ _ _ _ 2,192,000 -9,000 + 54,000 United States* ______________ 6,873,000 +373,000 +301,000 *Represents about 60 per cent of total output in U. S. Petroleum Daily average production of crude petroleum in the District declined about 5 per cent in September and a further decrease appears probable in October in order to reduce excess storage stocks now about 9 per cent larger in Oklahoma and Kansas than a year ago. September output was about 12 per cent larger than a year ago and 27 per cent above the average for that month during the past ten years. Oil production reported by the American Petroleum Institute and the Bureau of Mines: Further contraseasonal declines in United States cold storage stocks of beef and poultry and sharp reductions in holdings of pork and lard occurred in September. Stocks of beef, pork, and lard are now more than 33 per cent below the five-year average for this season of the year but poultry holdings are Sept. 1937 Aug. 1937 Sept. 1936 Gross D. Av. Gross D. Av. Gross D. Av. still 17 per cent above average. Stocks of eggs are (In thousands of barrel~ about 26 and cheese 7 per cent above while butter Colo. _____ _ 4.6 130 4.2 165 6.2 138 Kans. ____ _ 166.9 191.0 6,229 201.0 6,008 6,730 is about 8 per cent below the average. N. Mex_ 76.2 114.5 3,445 111.2 2,285 3,435 United States cold storage holdings: Okla. ___ _ 18,163 605.4 20,165 650.5 17,435 681.2 Beef, lbs. _ _ _ __ Pork, lbs. _ _ _ __ Lamb and mutton, lbs. ___ _ Poultry, lbs. _ _ __ Miscellaneous meats, lbs. Lard, lbs _ _ _ __ Eggs, shell, cases __________ _ Eggs, frozen (case equiv.) Butter, creamer y, lbs.___ _ Cheese, all varieties, lbs. Oct. 1 Sept. 1 Oct. 1 Oct. 1 1937 1937 1936 5-Yr. Av. (In thousands of units) 38,816 44,582 82,806 60,143 283,287 367,595 361,608 458,425 1,911 1,928 3,374 2,204 61,709 63,733 82,096 52,788 44,073 49,330 75,237 66,832 72,535 118,094 101,796 107,583 7,058 8,390 6,817 6,267 4,232 4,579 2,762 2,701 118,753 134,885 108,835 129,381 117,765 122,647 114,990 110,368 Flour Milling Flour business in the southwest is dull, but greatly improved shipping directions on flour contracts, the volume of which is much greater than a year ago, have enabled mills to operate at a good rate. Flour and millfeed prices advanced in September but are lower at the middle of October. Activity at southwestern flour mills continued in September at about the level of the preceding month but is slightly lower in Octol:>er. In the last half of 1936, ·mms · had shown a rather ·substantial increase in ··ac_tiyity: .:· ..At th~ pre~en.t "pfoductfon .is .holcl".' ing steady at the high level of a year ago, September ·- ·um:e Wyo. ___ _ 5 States u. s. ---- 1,741 68.1 1,721 29,207 973.6 31,690 109,867 3,662.2 116,090 65.5 1,247 41.o 1,022.4 26,130 3,712.6 90,972 871.1 3,032.4 The first important decline in stocks of petroleum in Oklahoma and Kansas this year occurred in September, stocks falling from 129,859,000 barrels on September 4 to 128,272,000 on October 2. Coal Output of bituminous coal showed a further seasonal increase in September. Production in September was only slightly larger than a year ago but for the year to date is 6 per cent larger. Coal output estimated from reports of the National Bituminous Coal Commission: Sept.1937 Colorado __________________ _ Kansas and Missouri New Mexico ______________ Oklahoma ---~----=------·-- · Wyoming -------~------- , 682,000 540,000 130,000 196,000 621,000 . Si:x> st~tes ___:_ _____ ~------- · 1,969,000 United States _______ 38,620,000 Change from Sept. 1936 (In tons) +179,000 +17,000 +84,000 +13,000 Zero . +.12,0J)0 . - +21,000. --:4,000 +119,000 · -·+6,000 - Aug. 1937 · +4-0'S,060 + '44,000 +4,636,000 + 1,428,000 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY Zinc and Lead Zinc and lead shipments from the Tri-State district increased somewhat in September but shipments tend to decline in October. Production continues high. At the middle of October the number of mines and mills operating is the highest in seven years. Shipments estimated from Joplin News Herald reports: ZINC ORE LEAD ORE Kansas _________ _ Missouri ______ Oklahoma ___ _ Tons 14,857 4,103 25,184 Value $ 645,890 178,397 1,094,849 Tons 2,022 499 4,046 Value $ 152,197 37,452 303,701 Sept. 1937_____ Aug. 1937..___ Sept. 1936_____ 9 Mos. 19379 Mos. 1936__ 44,144 40,262 39,180 365,563 315,829 $ 1,919,136 6,567 4,989 3,408 48,719 37,296 $ 493,350 1,723,361 1,231,233 15,215,379 10,018,101 365,445 170,417 3,584,188 1,843,875 Following a rise ~arly in August, zinc concentrate prices fell from $47.50 a ton to $40.00 and lead from $77.50 to $67.00 in the latter part of September and the first two weeks of October. Employment and Pay Rolls Employment was virtually unchanged and pay rolls declined slightly from the middle of August to the middle of September. Employment was about 3 per cent and pay rolls 8 per cent larger than in September of last year. Preliminary figures of the Department of Labor: September 1937 per cent change from August 1937 Employment Pay Rolls Colorado ----------------------------------------- _______ +3.9 -2.2 Kansas ------------------------ - - -3.8 +o.1 Missouri ----------------------------- - - - -0.7 -5.3 Nebraska _ __ ___ _ +1.5 -0.3 New Mexico --------------------------------------------- + 1.4 Zero Oklahoma _ _ _ _ _ _ _ +0.1 -2.2 Wyoming ------------------------------------------- + 5.2 + 7.0 Building Awards for residential construction increased in -September but contracts for other types of building declined, with the result that total awards were 21 per cent less. Both residential and non-residential awards were a third lower than a year ago in September although residential building this year has increased about 27 per cent. Construction figures of the F. W. Dodge Corporation: 37 EASTERN STATES Residential Total Residential (In thousands of dollars) 2,677 . 207,072 65,590 73,448 2,333 285,104 4,110 234,271 80,670 736,691 27,938 2,308,523 21,984 2,034,189 588,181 TENTH DISTRICT Total Sep.t. 19,37 . ____ 7,352 Aug. 1937 ____ ·9,313 Sept. 1936 ____ 10,737 9 Mos. 1937.... 95,336 9 Mos. 1936___ 89,424 7 Following a sharp decline in August, the value of permits issued for new construction, alterations, and repairs in eighteen · District cities increased somewhat in September. Value of permits was 21 per cent greater than in September of last year. Building permits issued by eighteen cities: PERMITS 1937 Albuquerque, N. Mex. __ Cheyenne, Wyo. __________ _ Colorado Springs, Colo. Denver, Colo. _______________ _ Hutchinson, Kans. _______ _ Joplin, Mo. _ _ __ Kansas City, Kans. _______ _ Kansas City, Mo, _________ _ Lincoln, Nebr. _____________ _ Oklahoma City, Okla. __ Omaha, Nebr. ------------···Pueblo, Colo. _________________ _ Salina, Kans. ______________ _ Shawnee, Okla. ________ ___ _ St. Joseph, Mo. ____________ _ Topeka, Kans. _____________ _ Tulsa, Okla. _ _ __ Wichita, Kans. _____________ _ 1936 71 67 71 60 541 98 27 43 203 194 194 149 96 23 18 26 82 103 260 57 74 489 61 27 38 186 146 161 158 47 18 18 44 85 118 195 September __________________ 2,259 1,989 August ________________________ 2,011 2,038 Nine months ______________ 18,313 15,984 ESTIMATED COST 1937 $ 77,000 60,000 52,000 1,257,000 52,000 19,000 37,000 226,000 131,000 561,000 220,000 41,000 36,000 29,000 14,000 101,000 212,000 152,000 $ 1936 103,000 98,000 66,000 563,000 23,000 55,000 30,000 169,000 63,000 587,000 229,000 21,000 22,000 8,000 41,000 231,000 183,000 222,000 $ 3,277,000 $ 2,714,000 2,473,000 33,288,000 4,411,000 29,333,000 Lumber Board feet sales at reporting retail lumber yards were smaller in September than in the preceding month but were little changed from sales in September of last year. Following a substantial increase in 1936 over 1935, lumber sales this year have barely held even with 1936. September collections averaged 33.0 per cent of amounts receivable as compared with a ratio of 32.2 in August and 36.2 a year ago. Lumber trade at 155 retail yards in the District: September 1937 per cent change from Aug. 1937 Sept. 1936 Sales of lumber, board feet_____________________ --4.4 +0.3 Sales of all materials, dollars_ _ _ -5.0 + 10.4 Stocks of lumber, board feet_ _ _ _ +0.2 +14.4 Outstandings, dollars ------------------------------+1.5 +29.4 Life Insurance September sales of life insurance in the seven states of this District were 6 per cent larger than a year ago as compared with an increase of only 3 per cent so far this year over 1936. The Life Insurance Sales Research Bureau report: Colorado -------------------------------Kansas _____ ______________________________ _· Missouri - -------··--·--------Nebraska ------------------------·---· New Mexico _ _ _ __ Oklahoma ------------------------------Wyoming _______ _ Seven states ---------------------------· United States _____________________ Change from Sept.1937 Aug. 1937 Sept.1936 ( In thousands of dollars) 5,006 -353 +410 7,168 -1,132 + 1,182 14,890 -1,538 + 501 5,131 -209 +268 1,322 -7 + 226 7,160 -251 +115 975 -361 -187 41,652 500,434 -3,851 --45,633 +2,515 -6,765 8 REVIEW OF AGRICULTURAL AND BUSINESS CONDITIONS NATIONAL SUMMARY OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS By the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION ,c.-:Cl.NT 140 PC~ CENT 14 0 130 130 A 12 0 V \ 11 0 100 ,~ \ 90 r )~ 100 /V A I\ /\ I':V \ I' V \t'.J .... 90 \h_ 80 70 60 120 110 80 70 60 50 50 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 Index of physical volume of production, adj usted for seasonal variation, 1923-1925 average 100. By months, January 1929 through September 1937. = DEPARTMENT STORE SALES PER CENT P£ A CENT 2so ,---,,......,....--,.--~-~-~-~-~--= 2so 200 ~ - - - + - - + - - - - 4 - - - + - - + - - - < ~ - J . . - - J 200 0 - Ad111sl1d lo, s,osonal vanallan - W1ffl(Jl,J/ UOSCIIO;ad1us1m,nl 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 Indexes of value of sales, 1923-1925 average 100. By months, January 1929 through September 1937. = WHOLESALE PRICES 1'£A C!Hf rl[~ C;=;[NT : . : _ _ _ - , - - - - ~ - - - . - - --,-- - - , - - - - - , 110 Declines in industrial production in September and the first part of October reduced output to the level of a year a go, and commodity prices continued to decline. The volume of distribution to consumers was maintained at the level of previous months. PRODUCTION AND EMPLOYMENT Volume of industrial production, as measured by the Board's seasonally adjusted index, declined in September to 111 per cent of the 1923-1925 average as compared with 114 in June and July and 117 in August. At steel mills, where output in August had been at a high level, partly on the basis of orders placed earlier in the year, activity was reduced to an average rate of 75 per cent of capacity in September . This decline continued in October, as new orders were in limited volume, and the rate of steel output in the fourth week of the month is estimated at about 52 per cent of ·capacity. There were also declines in September in activity at woolen mills, shoe factories, and at sugar refineries, and activity at cotton mills showed little change, although an increase is usual at this season. Increases in output were reported at sill_{ mills and meat-packing establishments where activity recently has been at a low level. Automobile production showed a decline from the high level of August , but in the first three weeks of October advanced sharply as most manufactur ers began assembling 1938 models. Mineral output increased in September, reflecting an expansion in coal production. Output of crude petroleum declined somewhat but continued in large volume. . Value of construction contracts awarded, as reported by the F. W. Dodge Corporation, was smaller in September and the first half of October than in the p1•eceding six weeks, with a moderate decline in private residential building and sharp declines in awards for other private work and for publicly-financed work. Currently the dollar volume of private work is about the same as a year ago, while awards for public work are in smaller volume. Factory employment showed little change from August to September, although an increase is usual at this season. There were declines in the number employed at textile mills, shoe factories, railroad repair shops, and lumber mills. At canning establishments employment increased seasonally. Factory pay rolls, which usually expand in September, declined substantially, reflecting principally a reduction in the average number of hours worked by those employed. The levels of employment and pay rolls continued to be considerably above last year. 100 1 - - - - 1 - - - - - 1 - - - + - - - + - - - - f - - - i 100 90 80 70 80 50 40 30 1933 1932 1934 1935 1938 1937 Indexes compiled by the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1926 100. By weeks, 1932 to date. Latest figure is for week ending October 16, 1937. = DISTRIBUTION Distribution of commodities to consumers by department stores and mail order houses increased more than seasonallv in Sentember. and variety store sales showed about the usual seasonal expansion. Freight carloadings increased by the usual seasonal amount from August to September. COMMODITY PRICES The general level of wholesale commodity prices, according- to the Bureau of Labor Statistics index, declined frnm 87..5 per cent of the 1926 average in the latter part of September to 85.2 in the midole of October. During that period price declines occurred in most commodities traded in on organized exchanges and in some manufactured prod,1cts. In the ten days ending- October 25 commoditv markets were steadier. New models of automobiles are currently being introduced at higher prices. MEMBER BANK LOANS ANO INVESTMENTS BIUJOHS 01 OOU.MS 8 a1LLtONI 0# OOLURS LOANS INVESTMENTS II BANK CREDIT Excess reserves of member banks, after increasing- in September from $750,000,000 to over $1 ,000,000,000, showed little further change in October. Total Joans and investments of reporting member banks in 101 leading cities declined somewhat in the four weeks ending- October 20, reflecting chiefly a steady reduction throughout the neriod in loans to security brokers and dealers. Commercial loans increased further. MONEY RATES AND SECURITY PRICES Wednesday figures for reporting member banks in 101 leading cities, September 5, 1934, through October 20, 1937. Loans on real estate and loams to banks excluded. Rates on 9-month Treasury bills in October declined to about % of one per cent, the lowest since last Januarv. Prices of hfo·h-P-rade bonds showed little change in Sentember and October. while prices of lower-grade bon,Is and nf common stocks declined sharply to the lowest levels since the middle of 1935.