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MONTHLY
REVIEW
.Agricultural and Business Conditions
TENTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT
VoL. 23, No. 11
30, 1938
NOVEMBER
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY
Business in the Tenth Federal Reserve District
OCTOBER 1938
COMPARED WITH OCTOBER 1937
% INCREASE
% DECREASE
;
-------L--..:
·--------COLO.
:• KANSA
. l{ANS.
•
•
·--·-··-··-··-··-.-l--Denver•
I
I
Building operations continue
the most promising factor in the
business situation. Contracts
awarded are 23 o/o and lumber
sales 28 % above a year ago.
Bank loans are slowly increasing although they are much below last year. The same is true
of bank holdings of Government
securities. Other investments of
banks are the highest this year.
Retail sales have been affected
by an unusually warm fall but
are better in recent weeks. They
are still below a year ago but the
gap appears to be closing.
Widespread November rains
have greatly improved the farm
situation. Dry weather was rapidly developing a critical situation with respect to winter
w h e a t. Generally speaking,
wheat is going into the winter in
good condition.
Life insurance sales are 12%
under last year. Flour production is little changed. Hogs and
sheep are being slaughtered in
larger numbers.
40 30 2<;>
BUSINESS
INDICATORS
10
10 20
••
30 40
·-
.Bank Debits--
F. R. Bk. Clearfnp.
-1r!em. Bk. Loan,_
■
I
·-
_Kem. Bk. Invest._
...Demand Depoefts_
_Life Ina. Salee_
Trade
_ Wholesale Salea_
_ _Retail Salee_
_l)ept. Store Salea_
-Lumber Sales_
Marketirig•
_ _Wheat_ _
II~ ___corn_ _
■
■
■
_ _ oats _ _
--
•
I
I
_
_ __Hop _ _
___ Sheep _ _ _
Production
___ Floor_ _
_ cattle Slau,rhter_
·---·--·
••
-
-■
•
_ __cattle _ _
___ Calves __
_Calr Slaughter_
_Hoe Slaughter_
_ Sheep Slaughter_
- Crude Petroleum_
_ Bitumlnoue CoaJ_
-··-·••
-•
•
% DECREASE
40 30 20
Financial
_
I
10 MOS. 1938
COMPARED WITH 10 MOS. 1937
% INCREASE
to
10
•
■
I
■
I
I
■
I
•
I
I•
~lnc Ore Shipment■
Lead Ore Shipments
Construction
__
I
_ .Rea. Awarcla_
■
_ Total
Award■
_ Value of Permits_.
Miacellaneou•
_ _ Rainfall _ _
Cub Farm Income•
____ Employment__
____ Pay Rolle ___ _
•For pre,lons month
20 30 40
---
+l,i
2
REVIEW OF AGRICULTURAL AND BUSINESS CONDITIONS
Member Bank Operations
Loans at reporting member banks in the Tenth
District rose somewhat further from the middle of
October to the middle of November, reflecting principally an increase in commercial loans. Real estate
loans, loans to banks, and "all other" loans also increased, while holdings of open market paper, loans
to security brokers and dealers, and other loans for
purchasing or carrying securities declined. Total
loans are about 12 per cent lower than a year ago.
Investments showed a further increase during the
four weeks. Holdings of Government obligations are
somewhat smaller than a year ago but holdings of
other securities are larger so that total investments
are only 2 per cent lower than at this time last year.
Adjusted demand deposits and correspondent balances declined further from the middle of October
to the middle of November, while deposits of other
banks at these reporting banks continued to increase.
Following a rather sharp decrease in the preceding
five weeks, reserve balances carried with this bank
showed little change. Adjusted demand deposits are
slightly larger than a year ago, correspondent balances are 40 per cent greater, and interbank deposits
about 4 per cent larger.
Principal items of condition of 51 member banks:
Loans and investments-total..... .
Loans-total ................................. .
Coml., indust., and agric .............
Open market paper................... .
To security brokers and dlers.
Other to purch. or carry secur.
Real estate loans ....................... .
Loans to banks............................
All other loans ...., .......................
Investments-total ....................... .
U. S. Govt. direct obligations ..
Oblig. guar. by U. S. Govt....... .
Other securities ......................... .
Reserve with F. R. Bank. ............ .
Balances with domestic banks... .
Demand deposits-adjusted ....... .
Time deposits ................................. .
U.S. Govt. deposits ........................
Interbank deposits ......................... .
Change from
Nov.16 Oct.19
Nov.17
1938 .
1938
1937
(In thousands of dollars)
652,940 +8,027 -42,670
252,275 +4,073 -34,917
152,627 +3,636 -28,533
17,798
-554
-6,099
4,157
-102
-38
11,847
-211
-1 ,822
22,616
+405
+2,271
773
+152
-275
42,457
+747
-421
400,665 +3,954
-7,753
222,115
-401 -21,384
50,492 + 1,429
+ 1,336
128,058 +2,926 +12,295
158,885
+445
-9,306
289,077 -6,293 +82,525
492,221 -3,453
+5,618
143,505
-67
-3,537
20,495
-32 +10,012
378,663 +4,584 +12,827
Reserve Bank Operations
Note circulation of this bank continues to increase,
averaging nearly 1683/4 million in the first half of
November as compared with slightly less than 166½
million in October. Circulation during the late spring
and early summer had tended to decline.
Volume of discounts has risen in recent weeks to
the highest level since early in the year. Seasonal
borrowing by banks in connection with crop payments in sugar beet areas accounts for some of this
increase.
Principal items of condition of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and Branches:
Change from
Nov.16 Oct.19
Nov.17
1938
1938
1937
(In thousands of dollars)
Total reserves.............................. 324,846 -2,429 +21,408
Bills discounted ......... ,................
1,051
+563
-67
Bills purchased............................
16
Zero
-64
Industrial advances....................
393
-20
-91
Commit. to make indust. adv.....
576
+47
+461
U.S. Government securities....
113,249
Zero -11,735
Total resources.......................... 485,929 +2,196
+9,099
F. R. notes in circulation.......... 168,768 +2,693
+1,269
Member bank reserve deposits.. 230,072
+217 -15,653
Dollar volume of check collections rose somewhat
less than seasonally during October. Dollar volume
in October was 5 and in the first ten months of the
year 12 per cent less than in 1937.
Check collections through this bank and branches:
ITEMS
1938
6,170
October ....................
5,679
September ................
Ten months .............. 58,453
AMOUNT
1938
1937
(In thousands)
6,068 $ 965,412
6,938
908,852
59,956
8,892,876
1937
$ 1,020,277
1,007,276
10,111,785
Bank Debits
Following a small contraseasonal increase in the
preceding month, October debits to individual accounts in banks showed considerably less than the
usual seasonal rise. Volume of payments by check
in October was 13 and in the first ten months of the
year 15 per cent smaller than a year ago.
Payments by check in thirty District cities:
Albuquerque, N. Mex .. .
Atchison, Kans .............. .
Bartlesville, Okla .......... .
Casper, Wyo ...................
Cheyenne, Wyo ...............
Colorado Springs, Colo.
Denver, Colo ...................
Emporia, Kans .............. .
Enid, Okla .......................
Fremont, Nebr .............. .
Grand Junction, Colo .... .
Guthrie, Okla ................ .
Hutchinson, Kans ...........
Independence, Kans .......
Joplin, Mo .......................
Kansas City, Kans ........ .
Kansas City, Mo ............ .
Lawrence, Kans ............ .
Lincoln, Nebr ................ .
Muskogee, Okla............ .
Oklahoma City, Okla.....
Okmulgee, Okla ............ .
Omaha, Nebr .................. .
Pittsburg, Kans ............ .
Pueblo, Colo .................. .
Salina, Kans .................. .
St. Joseph, Mo .............. .
Topeka, Kans ................ .
Tulsa, Okla .................... .
Wichita, Kans .................
Change from
Oct. 1938 Sept. 1938
Oct. 1937
(In thousands of dollars)
15,409
+1,700
-1,636
3,013
+199
-682
30,343
+1,182
-1,340
8,119
+2,268
-278
9,493
+286
-641
14,503
-918
-1,657
171,800
+16,978
-15,090
3,616
+415
-154
10,443
+73
-1,312
2,382
-40
-110
3,936
+254
-513
1,814
+40
+99
10,288
+521
-3,069
2,514
+10
-301
9,592
+340
-1,328
14,718
-327
-385
293,918
-1,846
-64,096
3,725
+575
-214
28,981
+1,767
-2,164
9,307
+1,300
-377
99,058
+5,304
-14,510
2,765
+109
-129
145,066
+9,015
-21,747
3,722
+63
-567
20,477
-6,284
+2,719
8,022
Zero
-1,953
27,099
+1,171
-782
18,215
+2,934
+2,567
128,899
-13,332
-34,867
44,922
+3,226
-4,737
District, 30 cities..........
1,146,058
United States, 141 cities 33,235,314
+26,963
+8,710,038
-169,053
-2,849,188
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY
Trade
RETAIL SALES
3
Wholesale sales and stocks reported by the Department of Commerce for this District:
SALES
STOCKS
Department store sales showed less than the usual
Oct.'38 10 Mos.'38
Oct. 31, '38
seasonal rise in October, partly because of the excepNo. of comp.to comp.to
compared to
Firms Oct.'37 10 Mos.'37 Sept.30,'38 Oct.31,'37
tionally warm weather. Dollar volume in October,
--(Per cent increase or decrease)
as in the first ten months of the year, was about 7
Auto. supplies...... 5 +21.3
-6.1
per cent less than in the corresponding period of Clothing.............. 3 -21.3
-12.5
-12.5
-0.5
+4.9
1937. However, sales for the first two weeks of Drugs .................. 10 +o.7 +1.8
-30.2
-7.8
Dry goods.......... 5 -15.2 -20.1
November were little changed from a year ago. Since Electrical goods .. 11 -16.6 -12.2
-31.3
+2.3
retail prices, according to the Fairchild Index, are Furniture.............. 4 -16.2 -16.8
-12.8
............ 37
-4.0
-9.2
+4.4
about 7 per cent lower than a year ago, the physical Groceries
-0.6
-16.1
Hardware-total.. ( 14) -9.8 -16.4
-0.6
-16.4
General .......... 5 -11.7 -17.0
volume of merchandise currently going into conIndustrial ...... 5
-1.0
-14.2
-9.5
+1.8
sumption is probably larger than last year.
Plbg.& htg....... 4 -18.7 -23.1
-11.8
Stocks of merchandise increased seasonally during J wiry.& opt.gds. 3 -16.4 -14.7
+1.5
.......... 4 -22.3
October and are now only 9 per cent lower than a year Machinery
Paper .................. 4 -20.7
-8.4
ago. Collections on open accounts averaged 48.1 per Tobacco & prod... 5 -15.0
-0.1
-10.7
cent in October as compared with 48.2 per cent last All other lines...... 15 -10.0 -22.3
year, while installment collections averaged 15.4 and Total ....................120 -7.1 -10.2
-14.9
+1.5
15.9 per cent, respectively.
Department store sales and stocks in leading cities: Crops.
The breaking of the fall drought in many secSALES
STOCKS
Oct.'38 10 Mos.'38
Oct. 31, '38
tions of the District early in November greatly imcompared to
o.of comp.to comp.to
Oct.'37 10 Mos.'37 Sept.30,'38 Oct.31,'37 proved the outlook for winter wheat. Following two
Stores
--(Per cent increase or decrease)
months of drought in Oklahoma and generally dry
Denver ............ 4
-0.4
-6.7
+4.6
-7.4
conditions in September in much of Kansas, the
Kansas City.... 4
-3.8
-9.2
+3.5
-16.9
month of October over virtually the entire District
Oklahoma City 3
-4.1
-1.3
+1.9
-2.1
-14.8
-2.2
_+8.0
-0.9
Omaha..........
3
was one of the driest of record, further delaying fall
Tulsa .............. 4
-10.2
-2.4
_+4.4
-3.5
wheat seedings in Oklahoma and bringing operations
-11.2
-11.0
Wichita..........
3
-12.0
-14.5
-9.9
Other cities.... 20
+2.0
to a halt elsewhere. Soil moisture tests in Kansas
during the latter part of October revealed a dry top-6.6
-7.2
District.......... 41
-9.0
+4.1
soil
down to an average depth of more than three
October sales of independent retail stores averaged
inches
over the state, varying from about two inches
11 per cent below a year ago and total sales for the
in
the
southwest
to five inches in north central areas.
first ten months of the year 12 per cent less.
Subsoil moisture in Kansas, however, is much more
Sales of independent retail stores reported by the
favorable than a year ago, averaging nearly 26
Department of Commerce:
inches at seeding time this year as compared with
Oct. 1938 per cent change from Oct. 1937
about 12 inches last year and 17 inches in 1936.
Colo.
Kans.
Mo.
Nebr. Okla.
Winter wheat on November 1 was in fair to good
Apparel ·-····-·······-··· -12.4 -22.6 -15.8 -17.2 -20.1
Country general....... .
-8.3 -12.2- 10.1 -12.8
-8.1
condition
in the eastern parts of Colorado and NeDepartment ............. . -9.6 -14.2
-9.3 -15.6
-5.6
-6.1
-2.8
+0.1
-3.7
+2.3
braska
and
in southwestern Kansas, where sur_nmer
Drug ··········-··-···········
Furn. and appliances -13.0 -18.6 -18.1 -11.9 -13.6 and fall precipitation has been good, but rather poor
Grocery ..................... . -10.7
-5.9
-9.1
-7.4
-6.6
-5.4
-9.9
+1.9 in other sections of Kansas and in Oklahoma. Early
Hardware ·····--··········· -20.6 -15.2
Lbr. and bldg mtls_ ...
-8.7
-2.1
+2.6 -12.0
-2.6 planted wheat, which had become rooted before the
Motor vehicle .............. -32.7 -34.5 -24.3 -21.2 -18.7
topsoil dried out, had made a good start but was
Total. ...u•--·········---····· -12.8 -14.6 -10.8 -13.0 -8.3 deteriorating while late planted fields had either
WHOLESALE SALES
failed to germinate or were thin and spotted. The
The value of October wholesale sales was only 7 rain and snow of the first week of November reper cent lower than a year ago as compared with a vived wheat plants, coming in time to save a large
decrease of 10 per cent for the first ten months of the acreage in central and eastern Kansas :;ind adjoining
year. In addition to drugs, sales of automotive sup- parts of other states. Some sections of Nebraska
plies and industrial hardware show recent improve- failed to receive sufficient moisture but a large area
ment over last year.. Wholesale dollar inventories are obtained enough to carry fields into the winter. As
15 per cent under a ye,~r ago. Collections in October a result of the moisture, some additional wheat will
averaged 70.5 per cent against 71.1 per cent last year. be seeded.
4
REVIEW OF AGRICULTURAL AND BUSINESS CONDITIONS
Rainfall
10 Mos.1938
Oct.1938
Total Normal
Total Normal
---uninches_)_
17.57 12.77
.12
1.05
24.30 16.62
1.47
1.26
12.44 10.81
.66
.17
16.68 14.91
1.03
.11
9.67
6.40
1.53
.54
1.47
1.97
20.58 19.67
Colorado
Denver ..........................
Leadville ···········---········
Pueblo ···············--··------·
Lamar ..........................
Garnett ............................
Steamboat Springs......
Kansas
.35
Topeka ·····················-···
Iola ................................
.38
Concordia ......•.........•...
.10
Salina ............................
.19
.16
Wichita ----······-------------Hays ..............................
.03
Goodland ......................
.11
Dodge City ..................
.18
Elkhart ............................
1.01
Missouri
.14
St. Joseph ·······-···········
Kansas City ................
.70
.26
Joplin ··················-·······
Nebraska
Omaha ·····-··················· 1.52
Lincoln ···-····················
.40
Norfolk ........................
.22
Grand Island ................
.18
McCook ................................ Trace
North Platte ................
.03
Bridgeport ....................
.05
Valentine ......................
.16
New Mexico
Clayton ............................
1.72
Santa Fe ......................
1.60
Farmington ..................
.49
Oklahoma
Tulsa ----···············--------.70
McAlester --------···--·······
.22
Oklahoma City ............
.21
Pauls Valley ................
.27
Hobart ----······················
.83
Enid ·················-············
.36
Woodward ....................
.22
Wyoming
Cheyenne ......................
.54
Casper .....................................
.16
Lander ......................................
1.23
Sheridan ....................................
.41
2.42
3.16
1.97
2.00
2.69
1.66
1.37
1.30
1.66
26.85
40.69
25.53
26.66
30.61
21.81
16.72
18.83
17.17
31.05
34.56
24.93
26.07
27.72
22.06
17.42
19.21
16.13
2.89
2.92
3.45
24.43
33.72
34.83
32.69
33.95
39.06
2.17
1.88
1.73
2.12
1.20
1.07
1.09
1.10
29.19
26.11
21.33
20.62
18.93
21.42
18.79
17.96
25.94
26.77
26.31
25.27
18.35
17.19
15.28
17.77
1.26
1.18
.81
14.36 15.02
14.04 12.86
6.63
7.93
3.68
4.27
2.86
3.47
3.04
2.92
2.22
39.23
40.98
29.55
39.19
24.14
31.93
29.17
.96
1.41
1.36
1.07
15.87 13.92
9.32 13.46
10.46 11.35
14.90 13.79
34.35
37.82
27.78
30.78
25.31
27.88
23.33
Grain Marketing
Cash wheat prices continue about unchanged at
the level that has prevailed since early last August
when prices had dropped to the lowest point in
about five years. Prices had strengthened slightly
in October because of continued drought in the domestic winter wheat belt but lost this small gain with
the b,reaking of the drought early in November.
Domestic wheat prices are somewhat above the world
price, Government purchases and loans providing the
principal support to the market. Cash corn prices,
the lowest since 1934, had declined rather sharply
early in October but have since strengthened. On
November 10, the Government announced that the
loan rate on corn produced this year by cooperating
farmers in the commercial area would be 57 cents a
bushel or approximately 20 cents above current
market _prfoes. Loans on the 1937 crop were made
at· the rate of ·5ff·c·e nts and are renewable at 57 cents.
The lower range of cash grain prices at Kansas
City:
Nov. 22
1938
$ Ji3
.44¾.
.25¾.
.40½
.36
.66
No.1 hd., dk. wheat, bu.
No. 2 mixed corn, bu........
No. 2 white oats, bu........
No. 2 rye, bu.....................
No. 2 barley, bu................
No. 2 white kafir, cwt.....
Oct. 31 Sept. 30
1938
1938
$ .64¾. $ ·.64¾.
.40½
.47¼
.24
.26
.41½
.41
.37
.39
.63
.90
Oct. 30
1937
$1.01
.55½
.32
.72
.53
.90
Marketings of wheat and corn increased sharply
during October and were in unusually heavy volume,
receipts of wheat being 14 per cent above ·the October average for the past ten -years and receipts of
corn more than twice the average. Part of the wheat,
however, represented a movement from country
elevators to terminal storage in order to make
room for new crop corn, and a considerable portion
of the corn receipts reflected deliveries to the Commodity Credit Corporation in default of Government
loans on the 1937 crop that became due November 1.
October grain receipts at five District markets:
Wheat
Hutchinson
Kansas City ......
Omaha ············-·
St. Joseph ..........
Wichita ..............
1,609
5,979
1,532
576
1,736
Oct. 1938............
Sept. 1938..........
Oct. 1937............
10 Mos. 1938......
10 Mos. 1937 ......
11,432
9,072
8,145
162,271
167,613
Corn
Rye Barley Kafir
Oats
,(In thousands of bushels)
5
2
1
12
1,464
254
37
45 117
4,910
338
93
73
493
476
14
12
6,884
1,070
1,007 · 1,044
3,216
1,139
24,459
9,967
15,071 13,197
131
119
167
1,303
1,218
132 129.
189
50'
178 131
l,090 835
1,765 682
Livestock
MARKETINGS
:
Marketings of cattle and calves increased further
in October when marketings are usually the heaviest
of the year and there was a seasonal increase also in
hog receipts. Marketings of sheep declined, the
seasonal peak apparently having been reached in the
preceding month. Except for hog receipts, which_
showed an increase of 19 per cent over last year,1
marketings were little changed from a year 'ago,
receipts of cattle and sheep being about 5 per· cent
smaller and calves about 5 per cent larger than in·
October of last year. - Calf receipts were aJso 5 per
cent above the October ten-year average~
October livestock receipts at District markets:: ·
Cattle - Calves
Hogs
Sheep
Denver .............. ~.....
102,245
13,196
23,640 · · 631,891
Kansas City ...........
175,629
66,397
133,888
127,435,
Oklahoma City ......
39,336
29,841
. 10,657
18,603
Omaha ....................
136,400 23,688
94,651
136 604:
St. Joseph................
34,146
5,896
66,669
744
Wichita ....................
32,019
12,156
20,431 _ 14,68.5
Oct. 1938 ................
519,775 139,936
369,020 . 993,016
Sept. 1938 ..............
439,138 . 8.4,883
295,843.-: 1;101,54'0:
Oct. 1937 ..................
547,811 133,818
·i'~~~~
10 Mos. 1938 ........ ~... · 3,4o·o,83"2 684,192 " a
10 Mos. 1937........... ~ · 3,786,963 802,314 2;949;819 ·6;690;2"66
n:
l~~!gig ··
5
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY
PRICES
Prices of beef steers, owing largely to the limited
supply of prime quality fed animals, established a
new top for the year of $12.50 a hundredweight in
October, then weakened in the forepart of November.
Stocker cattle prices continue strong but feeder
cattle prices are lower in sympathy with prices of
finished steers. Hog prices, after falling to a fouryear low of $7.40 a hundredweight about the middle
of October, recove~ed somewhat in the latter part of
the month but, with a further increase in market
receipts, again turned downwar d in November. Lamb
prices strengthened because of the seasonal decrease in tnarketings and recent strength in wool
prices.
Top livestock prices at the Kansas City market:
Nov. 22
Oct. Sept.
Oct.
Oct. Oct.
1938
1938 1938 1937 1936 1935
- -(In dollars per hundredweight) Beef steers ............ 12.25 12.50 11.50 16.00 10.40 12.00
9.25
8.75
9.25
7.60
9.00
Stocker cattle ........ 9.25
Feeder cattle ........ 8.75
9.25 10.00 10.75
8.25
8.75
Calves ................... . 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00
9.00
9.50
Hogs ......................
7.45
8.60
9.00 11.45 10.20 10.65
Sheep ..................... .
6.75
6.00
5.00
6.75
6.50
6.25
Lambs .................... 9.25
8.65
8.35 10.75
9.20 10.00
STOCKERS
AND
FEEDERS
Countryward shipments of stocker and feeder
livestock increased substantially further in October,
with market supplies of cattle and calves at the
season's highest level and shipments of sheep increasing despite a decrease in marketings. The
movement of calves was 7 per cent above the October ten-year average and cattle only 5 per cent
below but shipments of hogs were 58 and sheep 14
per cent below the average.
October stocker-feeder shipments:
Cattle
Denver ............................
46,566
Kansas City .................... 112,624
Omaha ............................
58,685
St. Joseph ......................
9,770
Oct. 1938 ........................ 227,645
Sept. 1938 ...................... 172,531
Oct. 1937 ........................ 226,707
10. Mos. 1938 .................. 927,031
10 Mos. 1937 .................. 927,382
Calves
6,387
23,774
10,871
1,499
Hogs
2,509
475
875
Sheep
386,509
36,010
54,841
18,851
42,531
4,030
17,876
2,448
37,143
4,546
125,755 37,337
130,218 39,705
496,211
310,290
603,088
1,284,552
1,268,992
171
.·. Developments to· November 1 continued to point
to
increase over a year ago in cattle feeding
operations in Corn Belt states during the coming
winter and spring. However, feeding operations are
still small in comparison with most years before
1934, with feeding less than half of normal in
N,epra~~a, and .t.he net increase this year is expe_c t.ed. to be moderate', . the effect of increased feed
sµppli.~ 'ii(reTative.ly low.. prices. being .reflectecf:more
in' lllf til).1sh. ·_of :the · ~&ttle fed than in -.the·number:
some
Lamb feeding operations during the 1938-39 season are expected to be larger in Missouri and Kansas
but smaller in Nebraska, where a sharp decrease
in the Scottsbluff area may be largely offset by
increases elsewhere in the state. A rather heavy
movement of feeder lambs to wheat pastures in
Kansas and Nebraska occurred late in September
and early in October but, owing to the dry weather,
the number of lambs finished on wheat pastures
will be considerably smaller than seemed probable
earlier. A reduction of from 10 to 15 per cent in
lamb feeding is expected in Colorado, largely in the
northern part of the state as the number of lambs
on wheat pasture in the eastern dry land sections
is unusually large.
RANGES
AND
PASTURES
Ranges and pastures in the District generally continued to furnish good feed through October except
in Oklahoma and western Kansas where the condition
was declining rapidly before beneficial rains were
received early in November. Cattle and sheep are
in good condition and are going into the winter in
above average flesh. With generally ample supplies
of feeds and improved prospects for winter grain
pastures, both cattle and lambs are being held closely
and there is a tendency toward restocking where
finances permit. Low prices for crops, however, and
fairly strong livestock prices are a hindrance in many
sections.
Farm Income
September cash farm income in the District was
about 26 per cent less than a year ago. Government
payments were larger than in September of last
year but receipts from the sale of crops were 33 and
from livestock 24 per cent lower. The largest percentage decreases were in Kansas and Nebraska
where farm income was about 40 per cent less than
last year. Income was higher in New Mexico because of increased receipts from both crops and livestock and showed only a relatively small decline in
Oklahoma because of substantially larger Government. pay.me~ts and a small increase in receipts from
crops .
D~partment of A~icultui:e income estimat~s:
Change from
Sept.1938
Aug.1938 Sept.1937
( In thousands of dollars)
Colorado .............................. 11,882
+2,280
-3,687
Kansas ................................
21,836
-348
-13,164
Missouri .............................. 22,542
+638
-6,164
Nebraska ............................ ·14,983
-3,786
-9,826
New Mexico........................
4,074
+~,900
+449
Oklahoma ................ ~ .... ~...... · 16,398
+3,918
-1,549
Wyomin_g --.;:.~.........•.:.....-:. ... ~... . -6,282-·
· +2,988
--1,997
Severt -states :~:.:.~~ .. ;.. ;.~-~~ ..... .'- . - 97,997 · ·
United States ·......:..........-~~. 764,000
+7,590
+136,000
~34·,93g·
-57,000
6
REVIEW OF AGRICULTURAL AND BUSINESSI CONDITIONS
For the year to date cash farm income in the District is down 19 per cent from last year. By states,
Colorado shows a loss of 24 per cent, Kansas 27, Missouri 12, Nebraska 22, New Mexico 10, Oklahoma 8,
and Wyoming 14 per cent.
Meat Packing
As in the preceding month, the bulk of October
marketings of cattle, calves, and sheep returned to
the country for stocking or feeding purposes, with
less than the usual proportion going to immediate
slaughter. Packers' purchases of cattle were 17,
calves 24, hogs 35, and sheep 27 per cent below the
October ten-year average. Cattle and calf slaughter
continue somewhat below a year ago and hog and
sheep slaughter moderately above last year.
October packers' purchases at District markets:
Denver ---------------------·
Kansas City ............
Oklahoma City ......
Omaha -----------------·-·
St. Joseph ................
Wichita ....................
Oct. 1938 ..................
Sept. 1938 ................
Oct. 1937 ................
10 Mos. 1938 ..........
10 Mos. 1937 ..........
Cattle
17,285
52,974
20,570
68,342
21,348
12,692
-193,211
189,201
201,611
1,760,234
1,868,242
Calves
3,499
16,486
11,882
12,600
4,173
4,095
Hogs
21,277
126,276
16,346
78,883
62,066
18,639
51,635
46,363
71,204
422,383
569,230
323,475
261,793
280,763
2,860,385
2,613,490
--
--
Sheep
52,271
80,112
7,296
74,346
63,696
7,149
--
274,869
336,966
242,918
3,136,918
3,116,377
Cold Storage Holdings
United States cold storage stocks of beef and
Iamb increased less than seasonally and stocks of
cheese declined more than seasonally in October.
November 1 holdings of poultry were 6, butter 63,
and cheese 16 per cent above the average of the past
five years but holdings of beef were 46, pork 33,
lamb 16, lard 18, and shell eggs 31 per cent below
the average. Except for beef, pork, and eggs, however, cold storage stocks are larger than a year ago.
United States cold storage holdings:
Nov.1
Oct.1 Nov.1 Nov.1
1938
1938
1937 5-Yr.Av.
--(In thousands of units)
Beef, lbs .......................... .
41,327
36,943
43,897
76,390
Pork, lbs. ······················-·· 260,785 277,231 266,414 372,014
Lamb and mutton, lbs . ..
2,663
2,318
2,376
3,172
Poultry, lbs. ................... .
77,607
69,942
76,208
73,456
Miscellaneous meats, lbs.
50,137
62,774
42,210
66,021
67,849
89,946
39,477
82,828
Lard, lbs. ····-···"'·········--····
Eggs, shell, cases ........... .
3,244
4,765
6,168
4,680
Eggs, frozen (case equiv.)
2,693
3,150
3,823
2,714
Butter, creamery, lbs ..... 193,751 210,703
98,624 119,148
Cheese, all varieties, lbs. 132,296 140,755 112,687 114,197
Flour Milling
A small but fairly steady volume of flour sales
for immedi;;i.te shipment and good shipping directions
on old contracts kept southwestern flour mills .operating at a good rate in October. Although sales improved somewhat early in November before rains
relieved the drought in the winter wheat belt, milling
operations tend to decline, reflecting in part the ext remely short backlog. October flour production was
little changed from a year ago or the October average of the past ten years, while output for the first
ten months of the year is 6 per cent less than last
year. Exports continue light despite a further increase in the Federal subsidy on November 1. Flour
prices are about steady.
Flour production reported by the Northwestern
Miller:
Change from
Oct. 1938 Sept. 1938 Oct. 1937
(In barrels)
Kansas City ..........................
658,000
-1,000
+5,000
Salina ................................... .
220,000
-7,000
+21,000
Wichita ................................. .
174,000
+3,000
-38,000
Other cities ........................... . 1,198,000
+54,000
-9,000
Southwest .............................. 2,250,000
+49,000
-21,000
United States* ...................... 6,379,000 +143,000 +251,000
*Represents about 60 per cent of total output in U.S.
Petroleum
Daily average crude oil production in the District,
which had turned downward again in September,
declined further in October, falling back to the level
of last July. Output, although very little below the
October average of the past ten years, was 20 per
cent less than in October a year ago, approximately
the same decrease as that for the year to date.
Oil production reported by the American Petroleum Institute and the Bureau of Mines:
Oc~1938
Gross D. Av.
Colo ..... .
Kans .... .
N.Mex.
Okla.... .
Wyo . ... .
111
4,795
3,211
13,859
1,565
5 States
U. s. ....
23,541
101,530
--un
3.6
154.6
103.6
447.1
50.5
759.4
3,275.2
Sep~1938
Oc~1937
Gross D. Av.
Gross D. Av.
thousands of barrels-) 93
3.1
120
3.9
4,821
160.7
6,002
193.6
2,883
96.1
3,297
106.4
14,079
469.3
18,664
698.5
1,748
58.3
1,578
50.9
--
23,624
98,661
787.5
3,288.7
--
29,551
110,911
953.3
3,677.8
Stocks of crude petroleum produced in this District continued to decline throughout October. Crude
stocks are now 16 per cent below the rather high
level of a year ago and are nearly 8 per cent lower
than two years ago when production was increasing to meet heavy withdrawals from storage. Recent declines in drilling operations, refinery shutdowns, the October cut in crude oil prices, and
weakness in gasoline prices reflect the unsettled
condition of the oil industry.
Coal
Output of bituminous coal showed a further seasonal increase in October. Production .i n October was
19 per cent smaller than a year ago and that for the
first ten months of the year was 21 per cent less.
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY
Coal output estimated from reports of the National
Bituminous Coal Commission:
Oct.1938
534,000
528,000
133,000
182,000
574,000
Colorado ··········•·-···········
Kansas and Missouri.. ..
New Mexico ....................
Oklahoma ··-···················
Wyoming ··-·-·-·········-···- -··
Six states.....·- -· --·-·---···--··
1,951,000
United States ................ 34,900,000
Change from
Sept .1938
Oct.1937
(In tons)
-171,000
+22,000
- 7,000
- 124,000
-19,000
+ 27,000
-11,000
-87,000
-58,000
+ 116,000
+147,000
+2,624,000
- 459,000
- 6,933,000
Zinc and Lead
Zinc production in the Tri-State mmmg district
held fairly steady throughout October but shipments
of zinc continued to decline. Supplies of zinc available for purchase are relatively small, virtually all
reserve stocks being held firmly by producers who
are reluctant to sell at present prices. Production
and shipments of lead ore increased slightly in October. The zinc shipment was 16 and that of lead
23 per cent lower than in October of last year.
October shipments from the Tri-State district:
ZINC ORE
Kansas ................
Missouri ............
Oklahoma ..........
Tons
13,210
1,472
17,616
Oct. 1938 ............
32,198
Sept. 1938 ..........
35,035
Oct. 1937 ............
38,421
10 Mos. 1938...... 308,674
10 Mos. 1937........ 403,984
$
Value
390,959
43,528
617,982
$
952,469
986,760
1,456,664
8,527,773
16,672,043
LEAD ORE
Tons
Value
1,481 $ 83,676
196
11,103
2,652
144,361
4,229
4,164
5,510
42,324
54,229
$ 239,130
227,753
368,169
2,163,894
3,952,357
Zinc concentrate prices advanced further about the
middle of October and again about the middle of
November. Prices of $33.50 a ton for zinc and about
$58.00 for lead compare with $36.50 and $56.20,
respectively, at this time a year ago when prices
were declining.
·
7
Following two months of moderate improvement
over last year, the value of building permits issued in
District cities in October again fell below a year ago,
the decrease measuring 14 per cent. For the year
to date, value of permits is down 21 per cent.
October building permits issued in District cities:
PERMITS
1937
Albuquer que, N . Mex. ~
71
Cheyenne, Wyo ........ .
56
Colorado Springs, Colo.
766
Denver, Colo ··········-···
88
Hutchinson, Kans . ..... .
19
Joplin, Mo.................. .
Kansas City, Kans ......
38
142
Kansas City, Mo . ........
203
Lincoln, Nebr . ........... .
182
Oklahoma City, Okla .. .
169
Omaha, Nebr.............. .
78
Pueblo, Colo . ................
Salina, Kans. ............ ..
11
13
Shawnee, Okla. .. ....... .
St. Joseph, Mo. ..........
22
69
Topeka, Kans. ............
Tulsa, Okla. . .............. .
211
Wichita, Kans. ........... .
330
97
October ........................ 2,604
September .................... 2,481
Ten months .................. 20,625
55
71
616
124
16
34
191
161
173
121
82
29
19
21
84
129
223
The value of O c t o b e r construction contracts
awarded in this District was 23 per cent larger than
a year ago, with awards for residential building up 30
and for nonresidential building 21 per cent . So far
this year residential awards are 8 per cent lower but
nonresidential awards are little changed and total
awards are only 2 per cent lower than in 1937, when
building operations were the highest since 1931.
Construction figures of the F . W. Dodge Corporation:
37 EASTERN STATES
Total
Residential
Total
(In t housands of dollar s)
11,154
112,673
357,698
10,814
99,574
300,900
9,047
65,486
202,081
101,868
798,995
2,509,144
104,383
802,175
2,510,604
T ENTH DISTRICT
Residential
Oct. 1938 ..........
3,211
Sept. 1938 ........
3,431
Oct. 1937 .......... 2,478
10 Mos. 1938 .... 28,132
10 Mos. 1937 .... 30,415
$
1938
1937
166,000 $ 198,000
115,000
72,000
54,000
36,000
697~00
597~00
53,000
56,000
101,000
52,000
103,000
196,000
266,000
158,000
164,000
82,000
368,000
376,000
158,000
217,000
76,000
50,000
19,000
82,000
7,000
8,000
16,000
18,000
147,000
133,000
441,000
1,443,000
428,000
164,000
2,246 $ 3,379,000 $ 3,938,000
2,259
3,650,000
3,269,000
20,659 29,383,000 37,216,000
Lumber
Board feet sales of lumber at reporting retail yards
in the District show further improvement over a year
ago, October sales rising 28 per cent above sales in
the same month last year. With this increase, total
sales for the year to date are only slightly smaller
than in the same period last year.
Collections on amounts outstanding averaged 34.0
per cent in October as compared with 32.1 per cent in
September and 36.2 per cent in October a year ago.
Lumber trade at 155 retail yards in the District:
Sales of lumber, board f eet ............ ..
Sales of all materials, dollars ..........
Building_
ESTIMATED COST
1938
Stocks of lumber, board feet ......... .
Outstandings, dollars ......................
October 1938
per cent change from
Sept.1938
Oct.1937
+14.0
+ 27.5
+13.7
- 2.1
- 3.0
- 11.0
+ 1.0
+ 5.9
Life Insurance
Life insurance sales in the District in October and
in the first ten months of the year were about 12 per
cent lower than in the same periods last year.
The Life Insurance Sales Res each Bureau report:
Change from
Oct. 1938 Sept. 1938
Oct. 1937
(In thousands of dollars)
4,248
-157
-1,666
Colorado ........................... .
Kansas ............................... .
5,926
+314
- 1,401
Missouri ........................... .
14,891
+ 1,406
- 2,095
Nebraska ........................ ..
4,645
- 182
- 595
New Mexico ......................
1,251
+244
+206
Oklahoma ..........................
8,303
+1,492
+214
Wyoming ......................... .
1,069
-256
+35
Seven states ....................
40,333
+2,861
- 5,302
United States ................. .
488,956
+60,474
- 90,748
REVIEW OF AGRICULTURAL AND BUSINESS CONDITIONS
8
NATIONAL SUMMARY OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS
By the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
•ucor
NRCOT
140
140
130
130
120
120
110
110
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
eo
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
Index of physical volume of production, adjusted for seasonal variation, 1923-1925 average=l00. By months, January, 1934, through
October, 1938.
~ACTORY EMPLOYMENT ANO PAY ROLLS
~o .,.,__ _ __.__ _ _.1....__ __,__ _ _.1....__----.,._,
1934
1935
1936
1937
50
1938
Indexes of number employed and pay rolls,
without adjustment for seasonal variation, 19231925 average=l00. By months, January, 1934,
through October, 1938. Indexes compiled by the
United States Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PEACU1T
110
100
100
90
80
70
~
,,-
·- - -
~
-
_./
90
~~
~
80
70
60
PRODUCTION
In October the Board's seasonally adjusted index of industrial production was at 96 per cent of the 1923-1925 average, as compared with 90 per
cent in September. Steel ingot production increased considerably, averaging
53 per cent of capacity in October, and in the first three weeks of November
there was a further substantial advance. In the automobile industry output was increased rapidly during October and the first three weeks of
November both to stock dealers with new model cars and to meet the increased volume of retail demand accompanying the introduction of .new
models. Production, which in the first nine months of 1938 had ·been at a
considerably lower level, was at nearly the same rate as in the corresponding
period in other recent years. Output of plate glass also increased sharply
further in October. Cement production showed a considerable increase,
while lumber production declined slightly.
Activity at textile mills, which had risen sharply during the summer,
continued at about the August and September rate, although usually there is
an increase at this time of the year. Shoe production declined somewhat
further in October, and there was a decrease in output of tobacco products,
while in most other industries manufacturing nondurable goods, changes in
output were largely seasonal in character. Mineral production showed a
further moderate rise, reflecting in large part increased output of crude
petroleum and nonferrous metals. Lake shipments of iron ore also were in
larger volume, although a decrease is usual in October. Coal production-increased seasonally.
Value of construction contracts awarded in 37 Eastern States increased
considerably in October, according to figures of the F. W. Dodge Corporation,
reflecting chiefly a sharp rise in awards for public projects. Contracts for
hospital, educational, and other public buildings included in the Public Works
Administration program were in large volume, and there was a further increase in contracts awarded for slum clearance projects of the United States
Housing Authority.
EMPLOYMENiT
WHOLESALE PRICES
F'::11'Cf NT
110
Industrial production continued to increase sharply in October and the
first three weeks of November, reflecting principally larger output of steel
and automobiles. Wholesale commodity prices showed little change in this
period. Volume of employment and national income increased in October.
60
Employment and pay rolls increased somewhat further between .the
middle of September and the middle of October. At automobile factories employment continued to rise sharply and there were further moderate increases in most other durable goods industries. The number employed at
canning establishments declined and in other nondurable goods industries
showed little change. Employment increased somewhat at mines, on ·the
railroads, and in the construction industry, while in trade the rise w~s less
than seasonal.
DISTRIBUTION
Sales at department and variety stores and by mail-order houses showed
less than the usual seasonal increase in October, partly because consumer
buying of winter merchandise was retarded by unseasonably warm weather
during most of the month. In the first two weeks of November department
store sales increased moderately.
Freight carloadings rose considerably further in October, owing largely
to increased shipments of grains, coal, and miscellaneous freight. In the
first half of November loadings showed a seasonal decline.
50
1934
1935
1936
1937
COMMODITY PRICES
1938
Index compiled by the United States Bureau of
Labor Statistics, 1926=100. By weeks, 193"
through week ending November 19, 1938.
IIWON8 Of' ll0U.M8
9
MEMBER BANK RESERVES
lilWOHt Of' DOLUU
9
Wholesale commodity prices generally showed little change from the
middle of October to the third week of November. Prices of steel scrap and
leather advanced. Tin plate prices, on the other hand, were reduced, and
there were also decreases in zinc, hides, and rubber. Prices of farm produ~ts.
and foods showed small fluctuations in this period.
BANK CREDIT
1-----+-----.11,t::---r.¥......,.;,.;.;-;..,..;.:;-~.,.;.;,~-:-+--I ,8
♦ t---;::i""""~~~~:r:-'~~~~.,.;.;.-;-;.;.,;+.-;---i-i--i ♦
Total loans and investments at reporting member banks in 101 .leading
cities declined by about $150,000,000 during the first half of November following a substantial increase during October. The decline in November was
almost entirely at New York City banks and reflected the retirement of State
and local Government obligations held by these banks. Adjusted demand
deposits, which reached an all-time peak of $16,000,000,000 at reporting
banks in the last week in October, also decreased somewhat in the first half
of November. Member bank reserves in the middle of November were at
about the high level reached a month earlier.
MONEY RATES AND BOND YIELDS
0
0
1934
1935
.-, 1936
1937
J938
Wednesday figures of total member bank reserve balances at Federal Reserve banks, with
estimates of required and excess reserve11, J anuary 3, 198", through November 28, 1938.
The prevailing rate on open-market commercial paper declined slightly
in November to % of 1 per cent, a new low level. Other short-term open-,
market rates were unchanged. Yields on U. S. Government securities and·
on high .. grade corporate bonds showed only small changes during· November,
continuing close to the low levels reached in October.
@FedFRASER