The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
May-June 1966
NEBR.
MON!·HLY REVIEW
KANS .
Population Growth in the States of
the Tenth Federal Reserve District,
1940 to 1964 • • • • • • • • • page 3
The District Economy
in Perspective • • • • • • • • • page 12
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK
OF KANSAS CITY
Subscriptions to th e MO NTHLY REvrnw are available to th e public without charge . Additional
co7?ies of any issu e may be obtained from the
Research D epartm ent, Federal Reserve Bank of
Kansas City, Kansas City, Missouri 64106. Permission is granted to reproduce any material in
this publication.
POPULATION GROWTH IN THE STATES OF
THE TENTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT,
1940 TO 1964
Hu Glc1111 Tl . .,/i/l(' r, Jr .
POPULATION ESTIMATES
Total Population of th e United States
H E TOT AL population of th
United States
( including members of the Armed Forces
stationed abroad) 1 has grown from about 132
million at th e b eginning of 1940 to about
195.8 million at the beginning of 1966. This
population increase, however, has not been
at a constant rate. The annu al net growth
rate was generall y increas ing in th period
1940-47, grncrall y stabl e fo r the years 1948-56,
and ] arl y cl clining in th period 19,57-65, as
shown in C hart 1.
The compon 'nts of national net population
grow th ar natural increas a nd civilian immigration .
t civilian immigration has contrib uted only sli ghtly to U. S. population
T
g row lh sin ·c J~-JO. ll was u n usua ll y hi g h in
19,56, how v 'r, primaril y be ·ause of lh e ad mission o f many <li placed p ersons under th e
Cha rt 1
ANNUAL RATES OF NET POPULATION
GROWTH, BIRTHS, DEATHS, AND
NET IMMIGRATION:
UNITED STATES, 1940-65
Per 100 0 M id - year Po pul at ion
32
28
16
1
Census Bu rea u est imates of population are presented
a ccord ing to t hree concepts : ( l ) total resident popu lati on, which includes residents of the 50 states, th e
Distric t of Co lumbia, outlying areas unde r U. S. sovere ignty or jurisdiction, and other U. S. ci tizens living
abroa d; ( 2 ) tota l population including Armed Forces
a broad, which is th e total res ident population plus mem be rs of the Armed Forces stationed in fo re ign countr ies
a nd the out lying a rea s; ( 3) c ivil ia n res ident popula tion, which is th e total res ident population less the
Arm ed Forces stationed in the United States. Source of
these def ini t ions, a s we ll a s the data on total U. S.
population is the U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current
Population Reports , Population Estimates, Ser ies P- 25 ,
No. 3 31 , March 2 2 , 1966.
M onthly Review
•
May-June 1966
12
8
4
Net Immigration Rate
SOURCE : U.S. Bureau o f the Census, Current Population Reports:
Population Estimates, Series P-25, No. 33 1, March 22, 1966, p. l .
3
Population Growth in the States of
Refugee Relief Act, and again in the early
1960's, largely because of a heavy influx of
Cuban refugees. Much more important to the
over-all net growth rate is the rate of natural
population increase. After some small decline
from the levels of the 1940's, the U. S. death
rate since 1953 fluctuated with no apparent
trend. In this latter period especially ( and to
only a slightly lesser extent in the earlier
period) , changes in the over-all net growth
rate were, therefore, most dependent on
changes in the birth rate. For example, the
decreas ing over-all rate of population grow th
sine 1956 res ult d primari ly from the falling
birth rat . ( In l 957, the birth rate was 25.2
per 1,000 population ; in 196,5, it wa 19.6 per
1,000 population.)
Civilian Resident Population of
Tenth Federal Reserve District States
Estimates of the population of states include estimates of population change for periods shorter than the 10 years between censuses, as well as estimates of the major components of change-net natural increase, net
civilian interstate migration, and net movement to and from the Arm d Forces. Table
1 contains estimates of the civilian resident
population of the United States and of th
seven states that li wholly or partly within
the Tenth Federal Reserve District, for selected dates from 1940 to 1964. Per cent
changes in civilian resident populations of
these areas appear in Table 2.
The dates used were selected in the following manner: census counts taken every 10
years give the population as of April 1 of
the census years, althou gh annual population
estimates are made as of July 1 of each year
betwe n censuses. In pres ntin g population
data for the 1940's, the Bur au of the Census
divided the decade into a prewar p eriod
( April 1, 1940, to July 1, 1942); a war period
(July 1, 1942, to July 1, 1945 ); and a postwar
period (July 1, 1945, to April 1, 1950 ). Th e
periods arc used in this arti I . The April 1,
1960, to J11l y l , J964, period also is th e res ult
of a
ns11s Burea u ·hoi · . Th Bureau stimatcd th compon nts of stat population
change for this p riod and, since th - ultimat
purpose of this article is to discuss the relationship between economic activity and the
components of population change, this period
also is accepted here.
For the 1950's, the components-of-change
data are available on an annual basis, thus
giving some fl exibility in the choice of periods. Since July 19,53 and July 1957 were
business cycle p ak months, the decad e was
divided into the followin g thr
p riods :
April 1, 1950, to July 1, 1953, which includes
most of the Kor an war period ; July 1, 1953,
to July 1, 1957, a peak-to-peak business cycle;
and July 1, 1957, to April 1, 1960, which very
Table 1
CIVILIAN RESIDENT POPULATION, IN THOUSANDS: UNITED STATES
AND STATES OF THE TENTH DISTRICT, TOTAL FOR SELECTED
DA TES, 1940-64
Unit
United States
Tenth Di strict
States
Mi ssouri
Nebra ska
Ka nsas
Oklahoma
Wyoming
Co lorado
New Mexico
April 1,
1940
July 1,
1942
July 1,
1945
April 1,
1950
July 1,
1953
July 1,
1957
April 1,
196 0
J u ly 1,
1964
131 ,39 1
130,942
127 ,573
150 ,2 19
156,5 95
169, 110
177 ,4 72
189,371
11 ,797
3,980
1,313
1,950
2, 149
278
1,399
728
12,6 19
4 , 151
1,38 1
2,0 86
2,246
308
1,625
822
13 ,09 5
4,286
1,396
2, 141
2,29 5
327
1,723
927
11,1 24
3,784
1,314
1,797
2,33 1
246
1,120
532
10,683
9 ,962
11 ,636
3, 744
3 ,440
3 ,952
1,2 34
1, 168
1,322
1,729
1,64 6
1,887
2, 166
1,934
2,2 18
23 1
227
282
1,089
1,05 5
1,307
490
492
668
SOU RCE : U. S. Bureau of the Census, Current Populat ion Reports, Series P-25 .
4
13 ,7 25
4 ,441
1,4 5 1
2, 189
2,4 24
333
1,896
991
the Tenth Federal Reserve District, 1940 to 1964
Table 2
ESTIMATED PER CENT CHANGE IN CIVILIAN RESIDENT POPULATION:
UNITED STATES, TENTH DISTRICT STATES, AND TENTH
DISTRICT TOTAL, FOR SELECTED PERIODS, 1940-64
Unit
United Sta tes
Tenth Di s tric t
States
Mi ssour i
Nebraska
Kansas
Oklahoma
Wyomi ng
Co lorado
New Mex ico
July 1, '57
to
Apr. 1, '60
Apr. 1, '60
to
July I, '64
Apr. 1, '40
to
July 1, '4 2
July 1, '42
to
Ju ly l ,'45
Jul yl,'45
to
Apr. 1, '50
Apr. 1, '50
to
July 1, '53
July 1, '5 3
to
July 1, '57
-0 .3
-2.6
+17 .3
+ 4 .2
+ 8. 0
+ 4 .9
+ 6. 7
-4.0
-1 .1
-6.2
-3.8
-7. 1
-6. 1
-2 .8
-7.9
- 6 .7
-8. 1
- 5 .3
-4.8
-10 .7
-1.7
-3.1
+ 0.4
+7 .0
+ 4 .3
+ 5.2
+ 7 .0
+4 .5
+1 0 .4
+1 6. 2
+1 2.9
+ 3 .8
+ 3.2
+ 1.1
+ 2.6
+ 2.2
+ 6.5
+ 6. 0
+1 2.8
+ 4 .8
+ 3-. 6
+ 4 .0
+ 2.2
+ 5.
+1 .8
+ 10 .0
+ 6. 9
+1 6 .8
+ 14.9
+ 13.2
+ 14 .6
+ 14 .7
+ 24 .2
+ 24 .0
+ 35 .8
+1.4
+ 0.7
-0.7
+ 3.3
-3.1
-1.4
+7 .0
+ 9.0
SOURCE: U. S. Bureau of the Census, Curre nt Popula ti on Reports, Series P- 25 .
nearl y ·o in id es w ith anot her pcak-to-p ak
bu siness cycle. ( Th<' act1 1al sc·o nd peak
mo nth \\' ,ls May H>GO.)
COMPONENTS OF
POPULATION CHANGE
April 1, 1940, to April 1, 1950
Estimates of th e civilian resident population and of changes th erein for th e d ecade
of the 1940's are influenced especially b y
movement into and out of the Armed Forces,
as well as by the mobility of the civilian population and ne t na tural population increase
( Tabl e 3 ). In the first half of th e d ecade, net
movement into Lh e Armed Fore s was large
enou gh for th Un ited States as a whole to
more than offset th e ne t na tu ral increase and
the n t immigration, thu s reduc ing th
ation's civilian res id ent pop ul atio n. Durin rr the
same p eri od , each of the states of the Ten th
District excep t New Mexico lost more population to the Armed Forces and throu gh net
emigra tion than it gained through net natural
increase, with th e res ult that those states had
net redu ctio ns in their civilian reside nt populations. ( Onl y the Pa ific Coast States and a
f w South Atlanti · and Moun tain Stat s
gained eno ugh population through intersta te
mi grat ion in those yea rs to offset th eir losses
to th e Armed Forces and produce a net in crease in th eir civilian residen t populations.)
Furth ermore, with the exception of ·w yoming
Monthly Review
•
May-June 1966
and N w Mc.x i ·o from 1942 to 194.5, th cl cl in c in c ivilian rcsicl enl popul ation in T ' nth
Di stri<:l sla tes w.is r<'lalively grC"al cr Llw II Lli
U.S. rat e o f d e ·line ( Table .... ) .
In th lat r yea r of th e 1940's, which jncluded th e end of World War II a nd preced ed the b eginning of hostilities in Korea,
th e flow of m en from th e Armed Forces to
civilian life was the most important factor
in the net change in civilian resident population of the United States and of th e states of
the T enth District. During this time, four
District states- /Jissouri and th e thre Moun tain States of ·w yoming, Colorado, and ew
M xi o-cxp d enc cl positive n t civilia n migration wh il e th e three Pla ins States- N hraska, Kansas, a nd Okl ahoma- continu d to
have net emigration of civilian popula tion.
However, even in those instances, th e return
of servicemen and th e net natural increase of
population provided an offsetting influence,
so that all District states had net increases in
their civilian resident populations in the p eriod July 1, 1945, to April 1, 1950. In addition, th e p ercentage increase in civilian popula tion in th thre fountain Stat s was abov
th at for th U nited States in this p riod.
April 1, 1950, to April 1, 1960
U. S. ground forces entered the Korean war
at th e end of June 1950, and the armistice
endin g the fightin g was agreed upon near th e
5
Population Growth in the States of
U ITED
Table 3
ESTI ATE OF COMP
TS OF CHANGE N
CIVILIAN RESIDENT POPULATION, I THOUSANDS:
T
S
STRI
E
ERIODS, 1940-64
July 1, 1942-July 1, 1945
July 1, 1945- April 1, 1950
April 1, 1940-July 1, 1942
Net
Net
Net
MoveNet
MoveNet
MoveNet
Net
Net
Net
PopulaCivilian
ment
ment PopulaNet Civilian
ment
Net
PopulaNet Civilian
tion
Natural MigraArmed
Armed
Armed
tion
Natural Migration
Natural MigraForces:::
Forces':' Change
Inc.
Inc.
tion
tion
tion
Forces'-' Change
Change
Inc .
-449 +2,878 +150 -3,477 -3,369 +4,808 +557 -8 ,735 +22,061 +10,050 +1,268 +10,743
United States
Tenth District States
-9
-92
-304
-238
-40
+22
+2 88
+97 -1 62
+512
+203
Mi ssouri
+62
-30
-21
-74
-66
-29
-75
+91
-81
+1 54
+84
Nebraska
+38
+23
- 10
-45
-83
-24
-113
+137
-52
+241
+113
-68
+54
Kansas
+ 29
-47
-231
-143
-57
+1 62
+168
-166
+99 -187
+ 284
Oklahoma
+71 -180
-4
-7
-2
-16
-14
+11
+2 2
Wyoming
+22
-15
+11
+ 55
+8
-34
-4
-29
-71
+85
-31
-29
+40
+96
+72
Colorado
+2 53
+ 26
-42 '
-15
-39
+44
-51
+57
New Mexico
+2
+176
+74
+ 24
+35
+6
(.:Minus sign indicates net movement into the Armed Forces; p lus sign, net movement out of the Armed Forces.
SOURCE : U. S. Bureau of the Census, Current Populotion Reports, Series P-2 5.
end of Jul y 19.53. Th r for , th p riod April
1, 1950, to July 1, 1953, ·ncompass s th
Korean war mobili.zation and most of th
tirn of active military operations, but none of
the demobilization following the end of hostilities. The period's end also approximately
coincides with a business cycle peak.
Because of the Korean war, this period was
again one of net movement into the Armed
Forces for the United States and for all of the
Tenth District states. In three of those states
- ebraska, Oklahoma, and Wyoming-the net
movement into th Armed Forces combined
with larg
nou gh net civilian emigration to
give reductions in n t civilian resid nt population for the p riod. Although Missouri and
Kansas also experienced net civilian emigration, net natural population increase in those
states was sufficient to result in net increases
in their civilian resid ent populations, although
at less than the national rate. On the other
hand, the rate of civilian population increase
in Colorado and New Mexico in the early
1950's was above that for the United States.
The peak-to-peak busin ss cycle of July
1953 to July 1957 corresponds with the p riod
from July 1, 1953, to July 1, 1957. Since the
close of the Kor an war and the assoeiat d
demobilization fell in these years, it was a
period in which there was again a net movement out of the armed services in the United
6
United States
Tenth District States
Missouri
Nebraska
Kansas
Oklahoma
Wyoming
Colorado
New Mexico
Statc-s and in th District slates. Although
thcr' was ·ivilian mi g ration 011t of Missouri
and th three Plain · States, n ,t natural population increases w re sufficient to give th ese
states, as well as the three Mountain States,
net increases in civilian resident population
for the period. Only the Mountain States,
however, surpassed the United States in p ercentage increase in civilian population in the
middle 1950's.
The remaining portion of this decade, from
July 1, 1957, to April 1, 1960-which approximat s th peak-to-p ak business cycle of July
1957 to May 1960- was similar to th p riod
imm diately preceding in th behavior of the
components of population change both for
the United States and for the District states.
Again there was net movement out of the
Armed Forces for all District states, net civilian migration out of Missouri and the three
Plains States, and a net increase in civilian
resident population for every District state.
And again only the three Mountain States had
percentage increases in civilian population
great r than that of the Unit d States.
April 1, 1960, to July 1, 1964
Mounting press ur s of the cold war and a
modification of the U. S. mjlitary posture
made the early 1960's a p eriod in which there
was again net movement of population from
the Tenth Federal Reserve District, 1940 to 1964
UNITED STATE
Table 3 (Continued)
ESTIMATES OF co PONENTS OF CHANGE IN
CIVILIAN RESIDENT POPULATION, IN THOUSANDS:
AND STATES OF THE TENTH DISTRICT, FOR s LECTED PE IODS,
April 1, 1950-July l, 1953
July l, 1953-July l, 1957
Net
Net
MoveNet
Net
Net
Popu laCivilian ment
Net
Popu laCivilian
Net
tion Natural Migra- Armed
tion
Na tura l
MigraForces•:: Change
Change
Inc.
tion
Inc.
tion
+6,375 +7 ,590 +90 8 - 2, l 23 + l 2, 51 6
+ l 0,523
+ l,306
+28
-9
+63
- 69
- 4
+9 1
+ 60
+148
+ 66
+93
+104
+19
+79
+ 63
- 56
-51
-1
-1 4 3
-19
+3 1
+6
- 64
- 23
- 29
-3 1
-4
-1 8
-9
+171
+ 68
+13 6
+ 97
+ 29
+ 226
+94
+207
+83
+13 6
+ 128
+ 24
+ I 10
+88
Ne t
Movement
Armed
Forces'-'
+ 687
- 64
-26
- 10
-38
+4
+ 113
+5
+ 28
+10
+9
+7
+I
+2
+I
Ju ly l , 1957-April l, 1960
Net
Net
MoveNet
PopulaNet
Civilian ment
t ion
Natural Migra- Armed
Change
Inc .
tion
Forces':'
+ 8,36 2
+7,280
+324
+7 58
civilian li fe jnto th arm d servjc s. Such was
the case fo r th e T enth Distrjct states, as well
as fo r the nited Sta t s. In ach District sta t ,
net na tural popul ation increase was larg .
enopgh to assure a net increase in civilian
resident population. However, there was net
emigration of civilian population from Missouri, Neb raska, Kansas, ·w yoming, and New
Mexico, and th e only District states with
higher rates of increase in civilian population
than the nited States were Colorado and
ew Mexico.
ECONOMIC CHANGE AND
POPUL TION GROWTH
Employment Opportunities
and Population Migration
The economist's concern with th e labor input to the productive process leads to a concern with concepts and aggregates such as
the civilian labor for ce and civilian employm ent, which are related closely to the civilian
resident population-th e population measure
emphasized in this article. The over-all size
of th e Armed F orces ( in number of personnel )
and chang s th erein are determin ed by th e
ex ten t of the ati on's m ilitary needs and commitments. The p rimary eco nomic influence
( on the supply side) of net movements of
men into and out of th e Armed Forces is
their impact on the size of the civilian populaMonthly Review
•
May-June 1966
+144
+ 54
+ 89
+ 83
+ 16
+77
+ 68
+1 35
+1 5
+ 54
+49
+ 20
+98
+ 105
-19
-44
-40
- 40
+4
+ 20
+3 8
+9
+5
+7
+7
0
+2
0
94 64
Aprill, 1960-July l , 1964
Net
Population
Change
+ 11 ,899
Net
Natu ral
Inc.
+10,531
Net
Civil ian
Migrotion
+ 1,595
+ 155
+56
+48
+128
+6
+173
+ 64
+197
+81
+1 14
+117
+ 23
+119
-f: 101
-37
-25
-63
+ 14
-18
+56
-36
tion a nd th , civilia n labor fo re . T hjs is tru e
both for th Unit d States and for th e in dividu al states . J nterstat shifts of military
personnel also apparently have a slight influ ence on the interstate migration of civilian
popula tion, since movements of civilian d ependents tend to coincide with military personnel movements/ and since employment in
industries serving local markets is likely to be
affected b y such movements.
Interstate differences in population growth
rates are not primarily d ependent on intersta te differences in the rate of net natural
popula tion in crease, since th e variations between sta tes in birth ra tes and dea th rates are
relatively slight. T emporary accelerations and
retardations in birth rates as business conditions improve and d eteriorate may result
in some short-run variations in the rate of
net natural population increase. But natural
population growth, and changes in its rate,
more often are thought to be related to longrun patterns of social and economic change.
Thus, when consideration is focused on the
short-run response of population change to
short-run economic change at the state level,
it is the third component of population change
2
Cicely Blanco, " The Dete rminants of Interstate Popu lation Movemen ts," Journal of Regional Science, Vol. 5,
No . 1 (Summer 1963 ) , p. 78.
7
Net
Movement
Armed
Forces':'
- 226
-5
-1
- 3
-2
0
- 2
-2
Population Growth in the States of
Table 4
ESTIMATED ANNUAL AVERAGE NET CIVILIAN MIGRATION, IN THOUSANDS; AND ANNUAL
AVERAGE RATE OF NET CIVILIAN MIGRATION (NUMBER OF EMIGRANTS PER
THOUSAND POPULATION AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD): STATES OF
THE TENTH DISTRICT, FOR SELECTED PERIODS, 1940-64
July 1, '42
July 1, '45
Apr. 1, '40
to
to
to
Apr. 1, '50
July 1, '42
July 1, '45
No.
Rote
Rote
Rote
No.
No.
Missouri
-4.0
-54.0 -14.4
+4 .6
+T.3
-3.8
-7.9
-4.4
-32.9 -25.0
-9.7
Nebrosko
-4.6
-2. 1
-1.3
-8 .0
Kansas
-23.1 -12.8
-5. l
-9.9
Oklohoma
-80.0 -34.3 -62.3 -28.8
-0.7
-3.0
Wyoming
-7.1 -28.9
+2.3 +10.1
-1.3
-1.2
-12.9 -11.5
Colorado
+1 5.2 +14.4
-22.7 -42.7
+4.1
+12 .0 +24.4
New Mexico
+2.0
SOURCE: U. S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series
-=-n-
Apr. 1, '50
to
July 1, '53
No.
Rote
-m
-15.7
-0.3
-44.0
-5.8
+9.5
+1.8
P-25.
- n t intcrstat ivilian mig ration - that ]aims
th' a nal ys t's att ntion.
Tn a re ·cnt p 11hlica tion of th National
Planning A sociation, it is ass rt d that "th e
sp ctacular mobility of th e U. S. popul ation
refl ects to a large exte nt the search for improved economic opportunity," a search that
is "primarily related to the search for employment . .. ." As a 'result, "extremely close relationships are found between unemployment,
population , and labor force changes." 3 A more
direct and explicit statement about these relationships is the following:
Th r seems to be fairly general agreement among economists who have inves ti gated p opul ation movements in the United
States that the availability of jobs is the
principal factor which determines the
amount and the direction of interstate
migration .·•
For example, by far the largest share of the
variation in the rate of civilian migration between states in the period 1950-57 may be
explained b y changes in regional unemployment. ·w h ere increases in job opportunities
did not match th e natural population increase,
ne t outward migration occurred. 5
An appreciation of th e relationship between e mployment opportunities and inter3
National Planning Association , Looking Ahead, Vol.
13 , No. 10 (January 1966), p. 2 .
4
Blanco, p. 77 .
5 Ibid., pp. 78- 79.
8
~
-11.9
-0.2
-19.8
-20.6
+7.3
+2.7
July 1, '53
to
July 1, '57
No.
Rote
-16.0
-4.0
-6.5
-5.0
-2.5
-1.3
-9.5
-4·.4
+1.0
+3 .6
+28.2 +20. 2
+1.6
+ 1.2
July 1, '57
to
Apr. 1, '60
No.
Rote
-6.9
-T.7
-16.0 -11.6
-7.0
-14.5
-6.5
-14.5
+4.9
+1.5
+7.3
+4.5
+13.8 +16 .8
Apr. 1, '60
to
July 1, '64
No.
Rote
-8.7
-2.0
-5 .9
-4.2
-6.9
-14.8
+3.3
+1.4
-4 .2 -12.8
+13 .2
+7 .7
-8.5
-9.2
Apr. 1, '40
to
July 1, '64
No.
Rote
-3.5
..:-ff.4
-8.4
-11.1
-4.6
-8.2
-25.6 - 11 .0
-6.1
-1.5
+10 .7
+9.6
+ 1.9
+1.0
stat mi gration may b
nhan d by looking
at th cx pc ri en · of a region that has h n fit ·d from th m igra tion pro css- on" with
n t inward rni gr.1tion. Durin g th last 25
y ars, th Pa ific Coast ar a, and esp ciaJly
the state of California, has b een such a region.
The following three s ts of conclusions may
be drawn from a study of the California experience made by Margaret S. Gordon. 6
1. Although population growth is not necessarily the same thin g as labor force growth ,
recent rapid population growth in the Pacific
Coast region has b een accompanied by "almost qually rapid growth of the labor force,"
indicating that population mi gration includes
a sufficient numb r of individuals activ ly
seeking work so that it is r pr se ntativ of
labor force migration. The Pacific Coast experience also supports the hypothesized relationship between employment opporhmity
and interstate migration.
Marked fluctuations in population growth
and in net immigration h ave been associated with pronounced variations in the rate
of employm nt expansion. 7
Furthermore, as the rate of immigration bega n to surpass th e rate of expansion of employment, thus makin g job prosp cts less
6 Margaret S. Gordon, " Immigration and Its Effect on
Labor Force Characteristics," Monthly Labor Review, Vol.
82, No . 5 (May 1959), pp. 492-501.
7
Ibid., p . 495 .
the Tenth Federal Reserve District, 1940 to 1964
favorabl e, the n et immigration rate slowed
down. Above-average rates of employment
opportunity and geographical wage differentials favo ring th e region with rapid employm ent expansion are complementary factors ,
rather than fac tors th at occur separately. As
such, th y are complementary rather than
alt rnativ sourc s of "pu11'' for migrants.
2. Periods of rapid employment expansion
in a region are almost necessarily also p eriods
of rapid expans ion of general economic activity. Th erefore :
The p e riod s of heavies t immi gra tion have
b 'Cll assn ·iale d w ith p riods of un 11sua1ly
r,1p id cc·o110111ic d, Clopm ' nt, w h n th e
rat e o f <'<:0 11 01ni · xpansion in th Stale
[ ,a li fornia] ha s
,d ,c1 th at of the
Chart 2
ANNUAL AVERAGE RATE OF NET
CIVILIAN MIGRATION (NUMBER OF
EMIGRANTS PER THOUSAND
POPULATION AT BEGINNING OF
PERIOD), BY STATES OF
TENTH DISTRICT, FOR SELECTED
PERIODS, 1940-64
1940-42
1942 - 45
cxc
a l ion. x
Economic grow th depends heavily on the results. of investment decisions, including decisions oh where to locate new plants and
whether to expand existing capacity. Thus,
it is not surprisin g to find that "the p eriods
of unusually rapid economic development
have been associated with the exploitation of
unusually favorable investment opportunities
in Cal ifornia ."rJ
Many of th ose inves tme nt opportunities
w r ' du e to th e reg ion's ·p ecifi locational
advantages, c pc iall y in war-rclat d activities. Expansion of indu stries having sp cific
loca tio1~al advantages, in turn, stimulates a
growth of employment in foo tloose industries
a nd in industries serving local markets, such
as trade and service activities an d residential
construction . The exploitation of favorable investment opportunities in a growing region
also tends to brin<T certain associated consequ nces, including sub tantial changes in the
industrial di stribution of employment.
3. Within th e state of California, most employment opportun ities and, hence, most of
th e population grow th were fo und in the m8
9
Ibid ., p . 500.
Ibid .
Monthly Review
•
May-June 196 6
1945-50
1950-53
1953-57
1957-60
1960-64
-50 - 40 -30 -20 -10
0
+10 +20 +30
SOURCE: U. S. Burea u of the Census, Current Populotion Reports,
Serr es P- 25 .
ban centers . Since California had a relatively
small rural population, it had to draw population and labor force from outside the state to
man its urban-located new industry. Similar
9
Population Growth in the States of
urban-based economic growth in predominantly agricultural states probably would lead
to more intrastate migration from farm to
city, as apparently was true in the Pacific
Coast States of Washington and Oregon.
Migration Experience of
the Tenth District States
In the early years of the 1940's, which saw
the depression's end mc~·ge into a mobilization economy, all seven states of the Tenth
Federal Reserve District had negative net
migration of civilian population, thou gh in
varying amounts a nd :1t varying ratc>s. ( Sec
Tahl c rj. ancl Chart 2 for 11111nhc rs of mi g rants
,111d rni gra l iort rates.) d c111igralion <·o nlirrncd
dming lli war years, c 'ccpt from New Mexico where a small immigration occurred. The
only District state with a higher emigration
rate durin g the war than immediately preceding was Missouri. In the remaining years of
the 1940's, the three Mountain States all had
substantial rates of net immigration of civilian
population and Missouri had a smaller positive ra te, while the rates of net outflow from
the three Plains States were considerably below those of the first half of the decade.
Betw 'en 1950 and ] 960, 20 states grew
fas ter than th U. S. average, while 30 grew
more slowly. Most of the interstate variation
in population growth rates was due to substantial differences in net interstate migration, and the predominant population movement was toward the Western States. The
Tenth District states of Colorado, New Mexico, and-except for the 1950 to 1953 periodWyoming reflect this westward movement
in their positive rat es of interstate migration
for the decade (Table 4 and Chart 2). Net
emigration of civilian population was the lot
of th e oth r four District states during the
1950's.
Increased production of military hard goods
during the Korean war and related industrial
expansion attracted population from less in10
Chart 3
ANN UAL AVERAGE RATE OF NET
CIVILIAN MIGRATION (NUMBER OF
EMIGRANTS PER THOUSAND
POPULATION AT BEGINNING OF
PERIOD ) , BY SELECTED PERIODS,
1940-64, FOR ST ATES OF
TENTH DISTRICT
MISSOURI
NEBRASKA
KANSAS
OKLAHOMA
WYOMING
19 40 -42
1942 - 45
19 45 - 50
1950-53
1953-57
1957-60
1960 - 64
COLORADO
19 40 - 42
1942 -45
1945- 50
1950 - 53
1953 - 57
19 57 -60
1960 -64
NEW MEXICO
-50 - 40 -30 -20 - 10
0
+10 +20 +30
SOURCE : U. S. Bureau of ~he Census, Current Population Reports,
Series P-25 .
dustrialized areas to leading manufacturing
cen ters. This pattern apparently is refl ected
in the migration rates of all the District states
in the period from 19.50 to 1953, when com-
the Tenth Federal Reserve District, 1940 to 1964
pared with the 1945 to 1950 p eriod. For all
sta t s but Kansas, th e mi gration rate ither
turn ed from p ositi v to negative, fell from a
hi ah r to a lo, er p o itive rat , or moved from
a lower to a high er n ga tive rate. The rate
for Kansas, however, chan ged from a high er
to a lower nega tiv rate, probably b caus of
th importance of military aircraft production
in that ta tc.
The rema ind er of th 1950's included two
rec s ions a nd two weak expansion p riods,
which combin d to make it a time of r lati ly low na tional co nomi c ro, th .
!tho ugh th e \ V 'S t rr
ta t s of th
nit cl
Sta les ( a nd es p ec ia ll y ,alifornia ,
( vada,
ri zo na, a nd Co lorad o) show d sizabl ' n ·t
imrnigra tio n ra t s throu rho ut th d ad ,
th ere was an over-a ll slowin g down of n t
intersta te migra tion. Th e r duced int nsity of
over-all m igra tion was composed of lower
ra tes of immigration for tho e sta tes arlier
experiencing positive net migra tion, and lower
rates of em igratio n from those states with
p rior nega tive net migration. This b ehavior is
b e t d epicted for th e District states by th e
p eriod ] 9.53 to 19.57, fo r which the indicators
of p opulation rn ig ralio n on
hart 2 lu t r
,lro t1n d th' line of z ro n 't mi gra tion- x pt,
of ours , for olor._ do' rela tively hi rh rat
o f n t im m igra ti on.
Th ' p eriod April 1, 1960, to July 1, 1964,
includes th e b r ie f, m ild recession of May 1960
to F ebru ary 1961 a nd th e first 40 months of
Monthly Review
•
May June 1966
the ation's Iona st p eac time xpansion. The
w estern part of th e United States continued
to grow rapidly, with Colorado and six other
\Ves tern States growing more rapidly in popu lation th a n th e ation. Thirty statcs-fiv of
them T e nth Di trict stat s-cx pericn d n t
loss of population throu gh migration. Colorado and Oklahoma w r th e only Di trict
state with n t inflows of ivilian population
durin g th p riod.
Summary
High r wa g s a nd b tt r opportuniti s for
mploym 1 t in regions with comparativ ly
more mpicl g rowlh in c onorni · a ti vil lend
to allra -t labor for and population . As a r suit, th r is an outflow o f populalio n from
state
xp ri ncing . low r conorni g rowth,
a nd, cons quently, a slower incr as in joh
opportunitie .
The over-all wes tward mo eme nt of U. S.
population durin g the last quarter century
is represented among th e states of th e T enth
F ed eral Reserve District b y the preponderance
of p eriods of ne t civilian immigration into Colorado a nd
w M exico, a nd , to a lesser ext nt,
into \\ yoming . During th sam p r.i od, th
· a r h for mplo m nt I d to 1 ct mi rration
of ivilian population from th Plains States
of ebraska, Kan as, and Oklahoma as w 11
as from 1issouri, althou gh th rat ~· of flow
of migrants to and from Missouri was nearly
in balance for most of the era ( Chart 3).
11
The District Economy
in Perspective
Bu Richard F. Young
1960 to F ebruary 1961, the NaFtion experienced
a downturn in economic
HOM :M AY
activity, while conditions in th e Tenth F ederal Reserv District r main ed rclativ ly fa vo rabl . In th ' xpansion sin e February 1961 ,
how v r, th Di stri -t has 11ot mat ·h d national rates of economic advance. The obs rva tion that th e employment of fa ctor inputs registers grea ter declines in th e Nation
than in the District during recessionary periods, coupled with th e fact that the District
has not shared to the full extent in the current
national expansion, serve as the b asis for characterizing the District economy as relatively
stable.
It should be emphasized th at stability is
rela ted to flu ctu a tions in eco nomic activity,
rath er than to rates of increase. Th e District
economy has not be n d orm ant. It has grown
co nsiderably, but has not matched th e tempo
of the more rapidly advancin g na tional eco nomy. For example, from 1964 to 1965 th e rate
of growth in the District labor force was only
.4 p er cent, as opposed to 1.9 per cent for the
Nation, and the rate of growth in District
personal income was almost 2 per cent less
than that of_the Nation. On the other hand,
the District un employment rate continues to
remain below that of th e Nation. In 1965,
Di strict un employme nt avera ged 3.7 p er cent
of th e labor force, as compared to 4.6 per
cent for th e Nation. This lower District rate
is explained in part, however, by th e fa ct
that the labor force has been growing more
slowly in the District and, therefore, fewer
12
new jobs are needed to redu ce the rate of
unemployment
In attempting to bring th e iss ue of rela tive
stability into cl 'arcr pcrsp ctivc, this articl e
fo cuses att ntion on Distri 't a nd natio11al
marn1fa ·tming ac ti vity- both in lhc agg rcgat '
and fo r s l tcd du rabl e and nondu rabl e
goods manufactur.ing indu stri s- from 1959
throu gh 1965. In addition, the article examines th e composition of employment in
an effort to d etermine th e relative importance
of different kinds of economic activity to the
District and the Nation, as well as the role
which the employment mix may play in the
matter of relative District stability.
Economic growth often is measured in
terms of in cr ases in output. In the case of
th e national eco nomy, th e most familiar a rgrega te indica tor of over-all economic activity
is gross national produ ct. The F ederal Reserve
Board's index of indu strial production, on th e
other hand, is used to measure th e ph ysical
output of the industrial component of the
economy. The District, however, has no counterpart for measuring output and must rely
on indicators of measurable inputs. Employment data have b een accumulated and seasonally adju sted at both District and national
l vels. An electric power consumption seri es
also has been coll ected and seasonally adjusted for Distri ct m anufacturin g. Employment data long have b een used by economists
in appraising District conomic conditions,
and an earlier article in the Monthly Review
suggested that an an alysis of electric power
The District Economy in Perspective
consu.mption might shed some light on patterns of growth and ·development peculiar
to District industry. 1
Some care must be exercised in using seasonally adjusted empioyment and power consumption data as proxies for two crucial
factors of production-labor and capital machinery. Given h·ends toward automationth e replacem nt of men by machin es-electric
power consumption data would tend to represent an upper limit to increased activity. By
th e same token, employment d ata do not reflect th e total increase in activity, th er by
pos ing a lower limit. lwc n in indu stries where
a ·lu a l bhor replaceme nt is not an iss u , an
expanding sea l , of ope rati ons oft n is marked
b y . in in creas in g utiJization of capital quipment. Under th se conditions, even though
labor utilization may be increased in an absolute sense, it declines relative to the employment of capital machinery and the electrical power necessary to drive the new machines.
Further, caution should be exercised in using electric power consumption data-the kilowatt-hour seri es - to interpret levels and
chan ges in economic activi ty. Of th major
employers of labor- man ufa cturin g, services,
trade, and governm ent- only manufacturing
utilizes substantial quantities of capital in relation to the amount of labor employed.
Therefore, while electric power consumption
may b e us ed as a proxy for capital machinery,
its use as an economic indicator is relatively
accurate only for economies that are dominated by the use of large amounts of such
machinery.
MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY
Comparing District and national data for
manufacturing employm nt and electric power
consumption over th e 7-year p eriod 1959-65,
1 " A New Regional Indicator : El ect ric Power Consumption ," Month ly Review, Federal Rese rve Bank of Kansa s
City, Septembe r- October 1965, pp. 14-20 .
Monthly Revi e w
•
May-J un e 196 6
Chart 1
U.S.- DISTRICT MEASURES
OF MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY
: ~ te rx _( 1_9 5_ 9,.=_1o_ o_ )- r - - - - . - - ~ - - r - s e_a-,
so_n_a l...:.
ly_ A
~ d~ju:...:s_t e::...:;
d
150
140
Te nth
130
120
tion
110
100
90
/
U.S. Employment
Tenth Di str ict Employment
80 .,__...___.____,_-L__,_...__.__._-L.__.___._L_.l..,_,..J..__l___J
1959
'60
'61
'62
'63
'64
'65
'66
one finds similar average yearly rates of
change. Chart 1, however, indicates that this
correspondence was not quite so pronounced
when viewed either month-to-month or yearto-year. Yet the similarities appear much more
pronounced than the differences. The correspondence b etween District and national
power consumption and U. S. manufacturin g
produ ction is esp ecially noteworthy. Again,
this sugges ts that in manufa cturing, wh ere th e
utiliza ti on of capital machin ery-and , th erefore, electric power - is very hi gh, lectric
power consumption serves as. a reasonably
good first approximation of output. Having
noted this correlation between Dish·ict and
U. S. power consumption curves and the U. S.
production curve, it seems important to reiterate that this relationship may be valid only
for the manufacturing sector. Also worth
mentionin g is th e fact that both District and
national power consumption curves lie just
above the production curve, thereby reinforcing th e notion of an upper limit. One also
may observe the movement of the respective
employment curves which tends to corroborate th eir use as a lower limit in es timatin g
activity levels.
13
The District Economy
Table 1
COMPARISON OF .S.-DISTRICT GROWTH
IN SELECTED DURABLE GOODS
MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES
Average
Yearly
Change
1959-60 1960-61 1961 -62 1962-63 1963-64 1964-65
- - - - - ~ - - - ( In per cent-)- - - - -
1959-65
Machinery ( Electrical and Nonelectrical)
Employment
U. S.
3.4
District
6.6
KWH
Consumption
District
14 .0
Index of Industrial Production
U . S.
3.5
-2.0
4.5
6.0
23. 7
8.5
3.8
2.4
6.1
7.1
5.6
4.2
8.4
5.3
22.5
7.2
7.8
15.8
12. 1
-0.5
11 .9
4 .6
9 .3
13 .2
7.0
- 7 .7
- 1.6
2.0
- 3. 1
0.4
- 0 .6
4.8
3. 1
5.3
3.8
1.5
1.1
17 .0
4.3
15.4
1 l.4
9 .5
11.9
u. s.
1.3
- 1.7
Transportation Equipment
5.0
8.6
13.4
6.2
5.5
- 8 .8
- 12.7
5 .8
9 .6
4.3
- 6 .4
0 .8
7.9
7.1
4.5
0.7
-1 .0
- 11.2
5.5
6. 3
7.9
5.5
2.4
-4.2
14.1
7.3
3.1
13 .9
6.3
-4.7
--0.5
4.0
4.8
2.2
2.8
3.8
9.3
5.3
6.8
2.0
3.5
6 .0
5 .1
3.7
14.8
10.3
6.2
- 1.1
10.0
5.4
7.5
11.5
5.9
Primary Metols
Employment
u. s.
4 .1
Distric t
5 .1
KWH
Consump ti on
Di t rlct
13.6
Ind x of Industrial Production
Employment
U. S.
-4.8
District
- 8.9
KWH
Consumption
District
0 .6
Index of Industrial Production
u. s.
3 .7
Fabricated Metals
Employment
u. s.
1.2
District
-2.5
KWH
Consumption
District
-2.6
Index of Industrial Production
u. s.
2. 1
SOURCE: Employment figures ore from the U. S. Deportment of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and individual state employment securi ty agencies. District power consumption data ore col lected monthly by the Federal Reserve Bonk of Kansas City, and
the U. S. power consumption and industrial production data ore
from the Federal Reserve Board's index of industrial production .
Table 1 d epicts District-national comparisons of growth in selected durable goods
manufacturing industries for the period 195965. It can be seen that the District made
sizable gains in machinery manufacturing,
both in terms of employment and power consumption. Th 1961-62 period witnessed an
xtraordinarily large incr as in both kilowa tt-hour consumption and employment for
the District. The gain for this p eriod, however, are attributable larg ly to the installation of a major electrical machinery and parts
plant in western Missouri.
14
Di stri c t data indicate mixed gains and
losses in primary metals, increases in fabricat d metals- with the exception of 1959-60
-and a mixed pattern of sizable losses and
gains in transportation quipment. At this
point, one should not the importance of
transportation equipm nt manufa turing to
District and national ma nu fac turin g, as is
vidcnced by th
ff ct of th 1964 au to
strike. This is indicat d r ad ily by th data in
Charts 1 and 2. It is not, however, r fl cted
in Table 1, sine th table is based on yearly
av rages a nd th e charts ar based on monthly
data.
in c durabl
goods manufacturing is
hi rhly ·apital int ' nsiv , an indir ct omparison of Distri t- . S. activ ity ]evcls in this
sector of the conomy may be mad by xamining data on District electric power consumption and U. S. industrial production.
There is considerable variance b etween the
performance of individual District and national durable goods manufacturing industries.
However, the course of employment growth in
durable goods industries, traced in Chart 2,
indicates a degr e of correspondence b tween
U. S. and Distri t measu r s in the aggr gat .
Th manufa turing s' tor contribut s only
on half as much to total mploym nt in th
Dish·ict as in th Nation- a point which will
b e consider d a t gr ater length later in this
analysis. This disparity in the importance of
manufacturing suggests that the use of District-national comparisons of manufacturing
activity through the use of such proxy indicators as kilowatt-hours may, at best, be inconclusive, or even misleadin g. Yet the distribution of manufacturing mployment b tw n th durabl s and nondurabl s compon nts shows a sh·iking d egr of parall lism
for the District and th Nation as a whole.
For example, durable goods manfacturing employment-as a p r cent of total manufacturing employment- has averaged more than 56
per cent for the United States in the period
in Perspective
Chart 2
DURABL GOODS
MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY
U TED STATES-DI T ICT
lndeK (1959 = 10 0 )
Seoson oll _t Ad l usted
160
Tenth Distr ict
150 [
US Productio
140
130
120
J
11 0
100
j
U.S.
90
80
J
...I._
19 5 9
'60
'62
'61
..L
'63
'64
'65
' 66
production for the United States and U.S. consumption of industrial electricity indicates·
that there may be, in fact, a reasonable analytical basis for using District electric power
consumption as a proxy indicator of industrial
activity for purposes of comparison with industrial d v lopm nts at the national 1 vel.
This is not to say that this r lationship i
more than approximate. E xisting data only
allow an indir ct comparison, ven for total
manufacturing activity. on theless, the preceding analys is provid s some justification
Table 2
COMPARISO
TRICT G OWTH
I
ELECTED NONDU ABLE GOOD
MANUFACTURI G INDU TRIES
Average
Yearly
Change
1959-60 1960-61 1961 -62 1962-63 1963 -64 1964-65
- - - - - - - - -( In per cent-) - - Food and Kindred Products
Employment
u. s.
1959-65, and approximately 53 per cent for
the District durin g this same period. As a
reciprocal, the nondurables component of
manufacturing em ploym nt also displays a
close corr spond nc at District and national
1 v I . This sugg sts that, in spite of th disparity in importanc of ov r-all manufacturing b etween the Na tion and the District, the
District's manufacturin g component may be
expected to behave, in the aggregate, much
like its national counterpart. This view is
borne out, to some extent, by the data illustrated in Chart 1, which traces the course
of manufacturing employment and electric
power consumption at both District and national levels, and also indicates the movem nt
in . S. manufacturin g producti on during the
p riod under consideratio~. It is of interest to
not th close corr spondence between District and na tional manufacturing employment,
as well as b etwe n U. S. and District el ctric
power consumption. The further correspondnc b etween movements in manufacturing
Monthly Review
•
Moy-June 1966
1·:2
District
KWH
Consumption
District
3.7
Index of Industrial Production
u. s.
2.8
--
1959-65
-0.8
-0.7
-1.8
-1 .0
-0.4
- 0 .8
-0.7
0.4
-3.4
-0.S
-0.9
2.1
4.5
3.3
5.1
2.2
3.5
3.4
2.9
3.1
3.4
2. 1
3.0
-5.0
-2 .4
- 3.1
--0.7
- 3.2
-2. 1
- 1.6
0.4
-5 .1
--0.9
-3. 3
- 1.4
4 .2
4.9
6.2
3.2
0.8
4 .6
2. 1
3.9
3.6
3.3
2.1
2.9
a.s
1.1
1.0
2.3
0.5
- 0. 2
2.3
1.3
2.6
2.8
1.6
2 .0
10.8
9.5
9.1
7.1
7.6
8.7
1.3
2.9
1.5
6.0
5.6
3.8
- 2.4
2.8
5.0
0.4
1.1
6.6
1.6
1.4
3.4
2.8
0 .8
3 .0
4 .3
19.4
10.4
5.9
7.8
9.1
1.1
6.8
3.5
6.0
8.5
4.3
Petroleum Refining
Employment
u. s.
- 1.9
District
-2.4
KWH
Consumption
District
8.2
Index of Industrial Production
u. s.
2.4
Printing and Publishing
Employment
u. s.
2.6
District
4.5
KWH
Consumption
District
8.0
Index of Industrial Production
u. s.
5.6
Textiles and Apparel
Employment
u. s.
--0.6
District
0.3
KWH
Consumption
District
6.9
Index of Industrial Production
u. s.
--0 .3
SOURCE : Emp loymen t f igu res are from the U. S. Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and individual state employment secur ity agenc ies. Di strict power consumption data are
co llec ted monthly by the Federal Reserve Bonk of Kansas City,
and the U . S. power consumption and industrial production data
ore from the Federal Reserve Board's index of industrial production .
15
The District Economy
Chart 3
NONDURABLE GOODS
MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY
UNITED STATES-DISTRICT
lndeK (1959 = 100)
Seasonally Adjusted
150
140
130
120
110
/
90
Tenth District Employment
BO L-..
19.L5_9 --'----'
.6-0 -'---,.L
61--'-----1
,6-2 _.___-:-,6.._3__._--:,-'6 -4 __._-:--:
,6~5_.__---:,-:'66
."::---'
for comparing District-U. S. d evelopments in
durables and nondurables manufacturing activity throu gh th e use of e mploym ent and
kilowatt-hour proxy indica tors.
The main points of the analysis of durable
goods manufacturin g are summarized in
Chart 2. As has b een pointed out, there is a
d egree of corresponde nce b et'"' en Distric t
electric powe r consumption , U. S. production ,
and U. S. and District employment. Distri t
electric pow r co nsumption , U . S. production ,
a nd District a nd U . S. e mploym ent in durable goods manufacturing all reflect th e
upward growth in d emand for durables during th e course of th e current expansion. Also
of interest is the fact that District employm ent-1959 base-exceeded national levels
over most of the p eriod. As will b e seen later ,
however , th e eco nomic impe tus gen erated b y
a g iv n segm nt of th District's economysuch as dumb] s manufac turin g- is a function
of th e r elative importance of th a t segme nt in
the over-all composition of th e District
economy.
Nondurable goods manufacturin g also displays tre nds that are perceived readily. T able
2 indicates considerable ga ins in U. S. pro-
16
duction and District electric power consumption , in the face of d eclining employm ent in
such nondurabl es components as food and
kindred products processin g and p etrole um
refini11g. Printing and publishing and textiles
and apparel manufacturing, on th e other
hand, made mod era te ga ins in employm ent,
in r elatio n to more sizable in creases in U . S.
production a nd Distri ct p ower co nsumptio n.
Chart 3 shows th e corresp onden ce b e tween
U . S. production and District lectric power
consumption a nd U. S. and District empl oyme nt in nondurab le goods manufacturing.
An inte res tin g fcatmc of , ha rt ,'3 is th e rela ti ve ly steady g rowth show n for produ ·lion
and pow r co ns,,rnption , a nd th
·ompa ra tivcly stahl c p erformance of employ me nt in
nond urabl e goods manufacturin g. This is in
sharp contras t w ith the ver y volatil e p erformance of durable goods industries illustrated in
Chart 2. Th e continuou s divergen ce b etween
the employment information and the other
da ta would indicate tha t increases in production are b ein g made with a relatively constant amount of labor a nd growin g amounts
of capi tal machin ery.
ln examinin g manufac turin g activity for
1959-65, on finds similar patt rns in th e level
a nd rates of ac tivity for major aggr ga testotal manufa cturin g, a nd durable and non durable good s m an ufacturin g-for th e Nation
a nd th e District. In spite of th ese similarities,
however, the p erformance of th e T enth District economy has not mirrored th e pace of
the n a tional economy in a number of resp ects
-a point cited earli er in this a nalysis. The
reasons b ehind this m ay b e seen b y xaminin g th e e mployme nt mix for th e Distri c t and
th
ation .
COMPARATIVE ECONOMIC
COMPOSITION
As seen in Table 3, agriculture, manufacturin g, s rvi ces, trade, a nd governm ent acco unt for almost three fourths of both Dis-
in Perspective
trict and national employment. Contract construction; mining; finance, insurance, and real
estate; and transportation, communication, and
· public utilities employment - not shown in
Table 3-comprise ano ther 15 per cent. Althou gh this latter group does account-in the
aggregate-for approximately one out of every
six jobs at District and national levels, the
individual categories represent only small percentages of total employment. In addition,
they are so similar in proportion for the
United Stat s and th District that their impact on cliff r nces in District and national
economic pcrformanc are almost n gligibl .2
Att ntion, therefor , will h dire ·tcd at th
mp]oymcnt ca tegories shown in Tab] 3.
Agricultural employment, in 1959-65, has
followed a steadily declining course, both in
absolute and relative terms for the District
and the Nation. In 1959, agriculture accounted for nearly one .o ut of every five jobs
in the District-a proportion which was
equaled by the trade sector, as well. By 1965,
agriculture accounted for less than one out of
eight jobs in the District. This decline in
agriculture's position as a prime source of employment was reflected in an allied employment category in the nondurable goods manufacturin g sector- food and kindred products
processing. In 1959, food and kindred
products processing accounted for nearly one
out of four jobs in total District manufacturing employment-a reflection of the strongly
agricultural flavor of the District. By 1965,
this proportion had dropped to one out of
five jobs. This shift-both in terms of declining agricultural employment and a de2 In 1965, for instance--o ll measu red as a per cent of
total employment- finance, insurance, and real estate
amounted to 4. 1 per cent for the District and 4 .2 per
cent for the United States; transportation, communica tions, and public utilities measured 6.5 per cent for the
District and 5. 9 per cent for the United States; contract
construction measu red 4 .6 per cent for the District and
4.5 per cent for the United States; and mining amounted
to less than 1 per cent for both the United States and
the District.
Monthly Review
•
May-June 1966
Table 3
MEASURES OF RELATIVE IMPORTANCE
FOR MAJOR EMPLOYERS OF LABOR
Average
Agricultural Employment as a% of
Total Employment
United States
District
Manufacturing Employment as a% of
Total Employment
United States
District
Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment as a% of
Total Employment
United States
District
Nondurable Goods
Manufacturing Employment as a % of
Total Employment
United St at es
District
Services Employment as a% of
Total Employment
United States
District
Trade Employment
as a
of
Total mptoyment
United States
District
Government Employment as a % of
Total Employment
United States
District
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
8 .9
17 .2
8 .6
16.7
8.2
16.2
7.6
15.6
7 .2
14.2
6.8
13 .3
12.3
7.7
15.l
25 .4
13 .1
25 .2
13 .2
24.4
12.9
24.8
13 .2
24.7
13.1
24 .3
13 .4
24.9
13.5
24.8
13 .2
14 .3
6 .8
14 .2
6 .8
13 .6
6.7
14.0
7 .0
14.0
6.9
13 .9
7 .2
14.4
7.4
14.1
7 .0
11.1
6 .3
11 .0
6.4
10.8
6 .2
10.8
6.2
10.7
6 .2
10.4
6 .2
10.5
6. 1
10.7
6 .2
10.8
9 .8
11.1
10.1
11.4
10.4
11.7
10.9
12.0
11.3
12.2
11.6
12 .3
11.9
11.6
10.9
17 .0
17.5
17.1
17.7
17.0
17 .8
17 .0
17 .8
17 .1
18.0
17 .2
18 .2
17.4
18 .6
17 .1
17.9
12.3
14.8
12.5
15 .3
12.9
15 .6
13 .1
15.9
13 .4
16.3
13 .6
16.7
13.9
17.5
13.1
16.0
-1965 1959-65
- -6 .4
ol
SOURCE: Employment data are from the U. S. Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and individua l state employment security agencies.
creasing proportion of food and kindred
products processing employment in the District-undoubtedly is related to the accelerated process of technological change and
increased capitalization which has characterized agriculture and its allied employment
sectors during much of the postwar period.
Manufacturing employment in the Tenth
District has shown little change, in terms of
its relative importance as a source of employment, b etween 1959 and 1965. In both the
initial and the terminal years of the period, it
accounted for approximately 13 p er cent of
District employment. It should be noted,
however, that the cyclical influence of the
current expansion may be seen in terms of
the upward shift in the durables component
of manufacturing employment since 1961, in
17
The District Economy in Perspective
contrast with the rela tive stability of the nondurables component. In any event, the relative changes are quite small and do not alter
significantly the notion that the manufacturing sector has been, and remains, decidedly
less important as an employment source for
the District than for the ation.
In contrast with the d eclining performance
of agriculture and the relative stability in the
manufacturing sector; services, trade, and
government have become increasingly important employment sources during 1959-65.
The three sectors, taken in the ag-rregate, ac·ount ,d for slightly mor th an 40 p r ent of
total Distri t ' rnploym •nt in 1959. With continual ga ins in the r la tivc importance of ea h
of these thr s ctors, by 1965 th y accounted
for nearly half of the over-all employment in
the District. Taken individually, services employment showed the largest relative gain and
government employment the next largest,
while gains in the trade sector were more
modest for the 1959-65 period. Although the
trade sector remains the single most important employer in the District, the government sector shows signs of challenging this
position, especially if th e trends observable
during the past 7 y ars continue.
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
By using proxy indicators, such as employment and electric power consumption, an attempt has been made to estimate District
manufacturing activity for 1959 through 1965.
These data, in conjunction with similar data
and information on industrial production at
the national level, served as the basis for comparisons of growth patt rns in the manufacturing sectors of- th e District and the United
States. The fact that the composition of
manufacturing employment b etween the durables and nondurables components is approximately the same both at District and national
levels suggested that District manufacturing
18
activity might be expected to move in a manner similar to the Nation. The analysis of
aggregate manufacturing activity at the District level, through the proxy indicators cited
here, served to corroborate the notion of District-national similarities.
How ever, an a n a lysi s of th e Districtnational employment mix do s provide significan t evidence which is helpful in explaining
the different performance patterns for the
District and the
ation during the period
under consid ration. The District was marked
by a declin in agriculture as a prime source
of mploym nt, as w Jl as a declin in agri·ultmal ly-o ri ·ntcd ompon '11ts of nondurahl
goods manufa -turing. ln addition, District
manufa cturin -r's share of total employm nt approached stability. Th rising l vels of manufacturing activity for the District, discerned
earlier in this analysis, point up th e increasing
utilization of capital in District manufacturing,
as does the increased agricultural output in the
face of declining agricultural employment in
the District.
The relative stability in manufacturing employment and the shift away from agriculture
should be placed within the perspective of
th e growing importance of the trade, s rvi es,
and government sectors as major areas of mployment opportunity in the District. Thus,
the relatively minor role played by manufacturing as a source of employment in the
District, as compared to the Nation, has
tended to afford the District a degree of insulation from cyclical swings in economic activity at the national level. This insulation
has been reinforced further by the growing
role of trade, services, and government mployrhent-areas which traditionally exhibit
little cyclical sensitivity. If the trends observable in the District during the p ast 7 years
persist, then the relative stability exhibited
by the District may be carried further into
the future.
@FedFRASER