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MONTHLY REVIEW .Agricultural and Business Condtttons TENTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT VoL. 24, No. 5 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY MAY 31, 1939 Business in the Tenth Federal Reserve District APRIL 1939 COMPARED WITH APRIL 1938 % INCREASE % DECREASE i --------'----·.·--------• Denver• COJ.O. :' I I 40 30 20 10 10 20 30 40 I KANSA I BUSINESS INDICATORS l(ANS. • ·-··-··-··---··~-l--■ Financial 4 MOS. 1939 COMPARED WITH 4 MOS. 1938 % DECREASE % INCREASE 40 30 20 10 10 20 30 40 I ···-··Bank Debfte ______ I F. R . Bk. Clearings. ■ ... Mem. Bk. Loans .... I ___ Mem. Bk. Invest. _. ■ .. Demand Deposite ... I I • Trade April was unusually dry and near the end of the month wheat was deteriorating rather rapidly. Scattered light rains in the first three weeks of May have brought .some relief. Otherwise, conditions have been generally favorable for the planting of crops. Wheat and corn are coming to market in much larger quantities than a year ago. Prices of these grains have strengthened, especially wheat prices. Hogs are being marketed in much larger numbers and cattle moderately so. The price of beef steers and hogs is about a cent a pound lower than in March, but lamb prices are somewhat higher. Wholesale and retail trade have been lower than a year ago, but the April figures were adversely affected by fewer business days and an earlier Easter. Probably trade activity is little changed from last year. Construction activity and lumber sales continue the most favorable aspect of the situation. I I __ Wholesale Sales .... _, ____ Retail Sales ___ I I ■ ____ Life Ins. Sales ...... I I . Dept. Store Sales._ -····Lumber Sales____ Mt1rketing& ··- ··-··· Wheat·--·-·-···· +91 ■ ·····-·-·-· Corn ________ _______Oats _________ ____ Cattle ________ ■ __ __Calves ______ _____ Hogs _________ ____ Sheep _____ I l'r0tl11ction I ···---· Flour_______ I .. Cattle Slaughter ... __ Calf Slaughter __ _ _ Hog Slaughter _ _ ■ - • . Sheep Slaughter _ _ . Crude Petroleum._ • Dituminous Coal_ Zinc Ore Shipments Lead Ore Shipments Construction ____ 'fatal A wards ___ +120 ____Ree. A wards __ _ Value of Permits_ Mi,cellaneou• ---·- Rainfall ___ ■ Cash Farm Income• • - ··--·· Pay Rolla ______ •For r,revlou~ month I __ Employment ___ -·-· --· -- . ■ I 1• I • I I • • I ■ • +84 2 REVIEW OF AGRICULTURAL AND BUSINESS CONDITIONS Member Bank Operations. Loans at reporting member banks in the Tenth District increased somewhat from the middle of April to the middle of May and early in May were at the highest level this year. Commercial loans had risen sharply early in May but at the middle of the month were again declining while real estate loans and socalled "all other" loans continued to increase. Investments showed little change during the period. Reporting banks continued to reduce their holdings of Treasury notes and Government bonds and to increase their holdings of Treasury bills, of obligations guaranteed by the Government, and of "other" securities. The reduction in holdings of Government bonds was rather substantial and total holdings of Government issues are the smallest this year. Loans are now 8 and investments about 3 per cent larger than a year ago. Adjusted and other demand deposits increased from the middle of April to the middle of May and there was an increase in reserve balances carried at this bank and a large increase in correspondent balances carried at other banks. Adjusted demand deposits are about 5 per cent larger than a year ago, deposits due to banks are 7 per cent larger, and balances due from banks are 6 per cent larger. Principal items of condition of 51 member banks: Change from May17 Apr. 19 May 18 1939 1939 1938 (In thousands of dollars) toans and investments-total.. ....... 657,227 +2,860 +31,042 oans-totaL. .................................... 259,323 +2 968 + 18 914 Coml., indust., agric ....................... 153,381 +632 +7:605 Open market paper........................ 18,042 -411 -136 To security brokers and dealers.. 4,463 +234 +1 072 Other to purchase or carry secur. 9,974 -44 -2'216 Real estate loans............................ 24,350 +703 +2'770 Loans to banks............................... 543 +212 '+8 All other loans................................ 48,570 +1,642 +9,811 lnvestments-totaL. ........................ 397,904 -108 +12 128 U. S. Treasury bills........................ 6,371 + 84 7 '* U. S. Treasury notes...................... 83,464 -684 * U.S. Govt. bonds ............................ 111,101 -5 178 * Oblig. guar. by U.S. Govt............. 56,933 +256 +14 289 Other SE:curities .............................. 140,035 +4,651 +27'532 Reserve with F. R. Bank. .................. 162,888 +2 949 + 11' 912 Balances with domestic banks ......... 283,775 +9:965 +15'128 ~~madd de:posits-adjusted ............. 496,693 +4,507 +25:400 1me epos1ts ..................................... 144,185 +231 -62 U.S. Govt. deposits........................... 23,301 - 182 +5 267 Interbank deposits ............................. 372,431 + 11 652 + 22'900 *Comparable figures not available. ' ' Reserve Bank Operations Note circulation of this bank continues to rise gradually, averaging nearly 170% million dollars in the first half of May as compared with an average of slightly above 169 million in April, 1683/4 million in March, and about 168 million in February. Circulation of about 1703/4 million at the middle of May compares with 165 million at this time in 1938. Principal items of condition of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and branches: Total reserves............................... Bills discounted............................ Bills purchased.................. _.......... Industrial advances...................... Commit. to make indust. adv...... U.S. Government securities....... Total assets................................... F. R. notes in circulation............. Member bank reserve deposits... Change from May 17 Apr.19 May 18 1939 1939 1938 ( In thousands of dollars) 336,988 +17,203 +28,292 427 +3 +212 16 Zero Zero 211 -3 -258 646 -18 +278 132,140 Zero +7,513 510,597 +17,391 +37,549 170,713 +2,203 +5,671 231,649 +5,089 +13,305 Dollar volume of check collections declined by about the usual seasonal amount from March to April. Volume continues slightly above the level of a year ago, the ·increase for the first four months of the year measuring 2 per cent. Check collections through this bank and branches: ITEMS 1939 April. ..................... . March ..................... Four months .......... 5,787 6,435 23,122 AMOUNT 1939 1938 (In thousands) 5,937 $ 858,867 6,344 935,949 22,939 3,495,933 1938 $ 855,536 919,052 3,431,258 Bank Debits Debits to individual accounts by banks in reporting centers of the District declined seasonally during April and continue slightly below a year ago. For the year to date, volume of payments by check in this District is about 2 per cent smaller than last year but for the whole country it is 3 per cent larger. Payments by check in thirty District cities: Albuquerque, N. Mex ....... . Atchison, Kans ...... --·······-··· Bartlesville, Okla .............. . Casper, Wyo ...................... . Cheyenne, Wyo ................. . Colorado Springs, Colo .... . Denver, Colo ...................... . Emporia, Kans .................. . Enid, Okla........................... Fremont, Nebr .................. . Grand Junction, Colo ....... . Guthrie, Okla ..... ................. Hutchinson, Kans ............. . Independence, Kans .......... . Joplin, Mo ........................ .. Kansas City, Kans ............. Kansas City, Mo ................ Lawrence, Kans ................ . Lincoln, Nebr .................... . Muskogee, Okla ................. . Oklahoma City, Okla ........ . Okmulgee, Okla ................. Omaha, Nebr ..................... . Pittsburg, Kans ................ . Pueblo, Colo....................... . Salina, Kans ....................... St. Joseph, Mo ................... . Topeka, Kans ..............-·-···· Tulsa, Okla ............. ............. Wichita, Kans ................... . Change from Apr.1939 Mar.1939 Apr.1938 ( In thousands of dollars) 14,528 -893 +945 2,698 -61 -179 26,721 +296 -1,700 5,515 +181 +376 8,264 -68 +533 10,920 -2,636 -2,396 146,680 -5,348 +1,834 2,773 -125 -147 9,062 -667 -1,620 2,561 - 223 +216 3,638 +37 +305 1,354 -132 -243 9,854 -281 -370 2,696 -95 +169 8,845 -654 + 461 14,637 -281 -137 270,376 -15,855 -942 3,134 -533 -176 26,918 -690 + 267 7,070 -881 -257 101,858 +2,099 -804 2,600 +43 -125 132,098 -10,448 -1,246 3,360 -284 -379 14,586 +2,627 -2,397 6,973 -560 -788 24,197 -1,254 +290 16,345 -508 -44 122,669 -1,925 -17,092 40,349 -1,216 -2,670 District, 30 cities .............. . United States, 141 cities ... 1,043,269 -40,335 -28,326 30,143,411 -4,342,388 -1,025,681 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY Wholesale sales and stocks reported by the Department of Commerce for this District: Trade RETAIL SALES Dollar volume of April sales at reporting department stores in the District was about 3 per cent less than a year ago. The month had one less business day this year than last, the Easter date in 1939 was one week earlier on April 9 while in 1938 it was April 17, and retail prices are slightly lower than at this time last year. When allowance is made for these factors, the volume of sales on a comparable basis probably was above a year ago. In the first three weeks of May, dollar volume was 4 per cent above last year. Stocks of merchandise continue about 4 per cent under a year ago. Collections on open accounts averaged 44.0 per cent in April as compared with 45.1 per cent last year while installment collections averaged 15.5 and 15.3 per cent, respectively. Department store sales and stocks in leading cities: SALES STOCKS Apr. '39 4 Mos.'39 Apr. 30, '39 No. of comp.to comp. to comp. to Stores Apr.'38 4-Mos.'38 Mar.31,'39 Apr. 30,'38 - - ~ e r cent increase or decrease) Denver............... 4 -4.5 -1.2 -3.6 -6.5 Kansas City....... 4 -0.3 -1.4 +3.9 - 7.9 Oklahoma City.. 3 +1.7 +2.8 - 2.3 +8.6 Omaha................ 3 -3.8 - 1.7 Zero - 2.6 Tulsa .................. 4 - 1.8 -1.9 -1.2 +8.0 Wichita .............. 3 -7.3 -3.9 Other cities ........ 19 -2.9 - 2.2 - 2.0 -4.8 District.............. 40 -2.7 -1.3 -1.0 -3.8 Total retail sales in April and in the first four months of the year were slightly above a year ago. Sales of automobiles, drugs, and lumber generally show increases. Sales of independent retail stores reported by the Department of Commerce: Apr. 1939 per cent change from Apr. 1938 Colo. Kans. Mo. Nebr. N.Mex. Okla. Wyo. Automobile .... -+ 21.8 +6.1 +32.4 +9.3 -7.7 +9.5 +11.1 Country genl ... +0.5 -11.3 -1.7 -8.3 - 7.6 -1.9 -3.8 Department... - -3 .1 -2.7 -0.6 -0.9 -6.9 -0.5 -9.5 Drug................. -2 .1 -4.2 +3.9 +4.9 +3.2 +2.1 -2.1 Furniture........ -2 .3 -6.3 -3.5 -11.9 +9.6 - 10.2 -6.7 Grocery............ -4.9 -2.5 - 5.8 -6.0 -2.2 - 5.4 - 8.7 Hardware ....... .+12.2 - 14.4 -2.4 -6.6 +7.9 +19.3 Lbr. & mtls ...... +0.1 -11.6 +14.1 -0.5 +17.0 - 5.8 +18.1 Men's wear...... - 1.6 -6.7 -3.3 -0.4 +7.3 +10.9 Women's wear -14.5 -0.7 -4.7 -9.1 -8.1 Total................. +3.4 -3.7 +1.7 -1.1 WHOLESALE SALES 3 +0.2 +0.4 +2.6 SALES STOCKS Apr. '39 4 Mos.'39 Apr. 30, '39 No.of comp.to comp. to comp. to Firms Apr. '38 4Mos.'38 Mar.31,'39 Apr.30,'38 (Per cent increase or decrease) Auto. supplies... 10 - 1.7 +o.4 +2.3 -1.8 Clothing............. 3 - 4.8 -6.0 Zero -8.8 Drugs .................. 8 -3.2 +2.2 +0.7 -3.2 Dry goods ........... 7 -7.4 -3.6 -2.4 -22.9 Elect!. goods...... 10 +3.3 +6.0 +2.8 -3.6 Farmproducts ... 12 -6.6 -12.5 +2.9 Furniture........... 4 -5.4 +3.9 Groceries ............ 37 -4.6 -3.5 -8.3 +1.6 Hdwre.-total... (14) -0.9 +6.9 +1.2 +1.7 General............. 4 +2.9 -0.1 +1.4 +0.3 Industrial......... 4 +2.4 +25.8 +o.5 +9.4 Plbg. & htg...... 6 -16.3 -1.7 Jwlry.&opt.gds. 4 +2.6 +3.2 +1.3 Tobacco &prod.. 8 -2.4 -2.9 All other lines... 19 -1.2 -4.5 +6.6 +o.5 Total... ................ 136 -3.0 -1.2 +o.5 -8.4 Crops Deficient rainfall in April reduced winter wheat prospects somewhat in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Nebraska. Because of above normal precipitation in the early spring, the condition of wheat in Kansas had been improving rapidly up until about the middle of April when lack of moisture, together with high winds and above normal temperatures, caused a definite decline in condition, particularly in southwestern Kansas where wheat had made rank growth. Persistent drought in Oklahoma in April resulted in a marked deterioration in wheat in southern, central, and northeastern sections of the state and wheat in Nebraska is generally poor except in the extreme western and southeastern sections of that state. On the whole, wheat is backward, stands are thin and spotted, and plants are weak and lack the vitality to withstand a prolonged dry period. Scattered rains in May have halted to some extent the rapid deterioration that was in progress early in the month. Department of Agriculture winter wheat estimates: ACREAGE YIELD PER ACRE ABANDONED Indic. Final Colo ................. Kans .............. . Mo .................. . Nebr .............. . N. Mex ..........• Okla ............... . Wyo ............... . 1939 1938 (Per cent) 20.0 27.2 24.0 14.4 6.0 6.4 17.0 6.8 30.0 42.0 10.0 11.0 20.0 24.9 1939 1938 · (Bushels) 14.0 14.5 11.0 10.5 13.5 13.0 13.5 12.0 13.0 10.0 11.0 11.0 12.5 13.0 PRODUCTION Indic. Final 1939 1938 (1,000 Bushels) 16,086 14,587 116,083 152,114 22,342 31,512 42,849 52,824 3,172 2,380 44,242 68,322 2,525 2,353 The value of April wholesale sales in the District was 3 per cent under a year ago and decreases were general for all principal lines. For the year to date, 7 States.......... 19.2 13.0 11.8 11.2 247,299 314,092 14.0 13.8 543,928 686,637 however, sales of drugs, furniture, and hardware are U.S................. 15.7 11.8 larger, and total sales very little smaller, than last Winter wheat production in the District, on the year. Dollar inventories at the close of April were basis of May 1 estimates which do not include any more than 8 per cent less than a year earlier. Collec- deterioration since that time, will be about 20 per tions in April averaged 74.2 per cent of amounts re- cent smaller than last year owing chiefly to the ceivable as compared with 79.0 per cent last year. smaller acreage seeded last fall. Indicated yields per REVIEW OF AGRICULTURAL AND BUSINESS CONDITIONS 4 acre are generally larger than last year and acreage credit loans on the 1938 crop no longer being availabandonment, including planted acreage diverted to able. Receipts of corn were 28 per cent larger than a uses other than for grain, so far has not been un- year ago although still less than half of normal. usually heavy except in central and southern NeApril grain receipts at five District markets: braska and north central and northwestern Kansas. Wheat Corn Oats (In bushels) April rainfall for Nebraska averaged only 58 per ....................... 1,065,000 cent of normal, Kansas 76, Oklahoma 72, Wyoming 60, Hutchinson Kansas City..................... . 3,898,000 888,000 206,000 454,000 252,000 and Colorado 53 per cent of normal. It was 99 per cent Omaha............................... 1,072,000 Joseph ....................... .. 226,000 200,000 258,000 of normal in New Mexico and 129 per cent in Missouri. St. Wichita........................... .. 1,216,000 Rainfall Apr.1939 4 Mos.1939 Total Normal Total Normal (In inch~ COLORADO 4.03 Denver................................ .80 2.06 3.83 Leadville............................ 1.22 6.37 6.08 1.78 1.31 6.23 2.68 Pueblo................................ 2.04 Lamar................................. .24 3.43 3.43 1.77 1.30 Garnett.............................. .53 .59 1.84 Steamboat Springs .......... 1.48 1.90 9.53 8.87 KANSAS Topeka............................... lola..................................... Concordia........................... Salina................................. Wichita.............................. Hays ................................... Goodland ............................ Dodge City....................... Elkhart............................... 7.21 8.69 6.07 4.87 6.73 4.16 6.24 3.16 4.24 7.33 9.29 5.08 6.56 6.69 4.37 3.74 4.01 3.44 3.72 3.25 2.57 1.12 2.14 1.65 1.34 .46 1.41 2.78 3.90 2.36 2.47 2.91 2.29 2.06 1.94 1.75 2.71 7.04 3.04 3.19 3.14 4.70 .64 1.66 1.63 1.26 2.46 1.26 .56 .83 2.61 2.63 2.69 2.46 1.86 2.06 2.12 2.18 3.58 5.89 4.33 3.67 6.10 2.99 3.50 3.32 6.47 5.38 5.36 6.12 3.74 3.80 3.81 4.46 1.12 1.19 .35 1.70 1.00 .64 2.75 4.74 2.51 3.23 3.22 2.60 .83 3.90 1.08 1.48 1.12 2.86 4.22 4.13 4.58 3.29 3.88 3.10 3.26 2.49 6.28 12.10 6.43 7.64 7.80 8.45 10.00 10.72 12.74 7.57 9.07 6.40 7.08 5.60 1.81 .78 .80 1.96 1.99 1.96 2.06 1.92 6.00 1.74 2.78 4.19 4.07 4.71 4.44 4.63 MISSOURI St. Joseph .......................... Kansas City....................... Joplin.................................. 8.62 9.69 8.61 10.44 9.86 11.74 NEBRASKA Omaha.............................. Lincoln.............................. Norfolk.............................. Grand Island ..................... McCook. ............................. North Platte...................... Bridgeport......................... Valentine ........................... NEW MEXICO Clayton............................... Santa Fe............................ Farmington....................... OKLAHOMA Tulsa................................... McAlester.......................... Oklahoma City.................. Pauls Valley...................... Hobart................................ Enid .................................... Woodward.......................... WYOMING Cheyenne........................... Casper................................ Lander................................ Sheridan............................. Grain Marketing Apr.1939.......................... 7,477,000 Mar.1939......................... 7,634,000 Apr.1938.......................... 5,653,000 4 Mos. 1939....................... 27,121,000 4 Mos. 1938....................... 24,398,000 1,642,000 1,160,000 1,202,000 6,212,000 11,113,000 716,000 932,000 374,000 3,686,000 2,897,000 Cash wheat prices strengthened slightly during the first three weeks of April and rose sharply in the last week of the month and early in May to the highest level in nearly a year, influenced principally by adverse growing conditions for the new crop. Cash corn prices also advanced and in the latter part of May there was a further rise in wheat prices. The lower range of cash prices at Kansas City: No. 1 hd., dk. wheat, bu ...... . No. 2 mixed corn, bu ............. No. 2 white oats, bu .. - .......... No. 2 rye, bu .......................... No. 2 barley, bu•.................... No. 2 white kafir, cwt......... . May 24 Apr. 29 Mar.31 Apr. 30 1939 1939 1939 1938 $ .76¼ $ .72 $ .68¾, $ .80½ .50¾, .47½ .46 .54½ ~4 ~1½ .29¾, .27½ .53 .47½ .43½ .65 .43½ .41½ .40 .61 1.06 .86 .77 .83 Livestock MARKETINGS Marketings of cattle, calves, and hogs declined and receipts of sheep increased seasonally during April. Marketings of all livestock were exceptionally light. Cattle receipts were 5 and hog receipts 37 per cent above their record lows for April a year ago but were 21 and 45 per cent, respectively, under average. Receipts of calves were 7 and sheep 5 per cent smaller than last year and 10 and 20 per cent, respectively, under the average. April livestock receipts at six District markets: Denver................... Kansas City.......... Oklahoma City..... Omaha................... St. Joseph .............. Wichita.................. Cattle 27,584 89,038 24,321 77,074 18,239 20,457 Calves 5,149 17,478 9,975 4,800 4,790 3,295 Hogs 21,087 129,781 43,263 94,406 48,662 31,775 Sheep 214,260 131,378 17,786 140,947 116,360 16,245 Apr.1939 ............... 266,713 46,487 368,973 686,976 581,739 50,510 376,945 Wheat marketings remained in heavy volume Mar.1939 ............... 279,004 Apr.1938 ............... 243,895 48,868 270,194 667,203 through April as prices strengthened and country 4 Mos. 1939............ 1,089,099 199,856 1,609,034 2,166,463 222,458 1,445,075 2,203,497 holders continued to liquidate large farm and eleva- 4 Mos. 1938............ 1,159,324 PRICES tor stocks, including Federal loan wheat repossessed Prices of beef steers declined in April as is usual at by growers. Receipts of wheat were 32 per cent larger than in April a year ago and 39 per cent above this season. The cattle market, however, continues average. Corn marketings increased sharply during relatively strong, being supported at the top by a· April, prices being somewhat firmer and commodity scarcity of prime finished steers and at the bottom by FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY the heavy demand for the short supplies of stockers and feeders. While most of the weakness has occurred in intermediate grades of steers which form the bulk of current marketings, total receipts of cattle are very light, reflecting the abundance of feed and the fact that cattle are in strong hands. Hog prices showed a further seasonal decline, the top price falling to a new five-year low of $6.65 a hundredweight in the last week of April. This seasonal weakness has been accentuated by the low price of lard but has been offset in part by the small supplies of lower grades of beef and by weather conditions favorable to pork consumption. All classes of sheep and lambs advanced further to new two-year highs in April. In the first three weeks of May, cattle and hog prices were about steady to slightly lower while lamb prices, after reaching a new high of $11.35 a hundredweight, declined sharply. Top livestock prices at the Kansas City market: 5 of southwestern cattle to the Osage pastures of Oklahoma and the Blue Stem pastures of Kansas, owing in part to drought in southern Texas, has far exceeded early predictions and that from 15 to 20 per cent more cattle have been shipped in than at this time last year. Range and pasture conditions reported by the Department of Agriculture: RANGES May 1 1939 Colo.____________ ___ Kans ... ____________ Mo. __________ .. ______ Nebr._ _______ .. ___ N. Mex.____ ______ Okla._______________ Wyo .. ______________ 85 75 82 88 78 81 PASTURES May 1 '29-'38 May 1 May 1 '28-'37 1938 Aver. 1939 1938 Aver. (In percentages of 100 as normal) 79 79 83 70 71 59 70 69 62 68 80 84 73 79 82 70 63 73 81 80 86 72 68 84 76 69 75 68 85 80 81 87 79 Because of the generally mild winter and abundant feed supplies, cattle and sheep are in good condition and good calf and lamb crops are in prospect. The high price of cows and ewes continues to limit someMay 24 Apr. Mar. Apr. Apr. Apr. what the tendency to restock. Shearing of the 1939 1939 1939 1939 1938 1937 1936 wool clip is in progress and indications in Wyoming - - (In dollars per hundredweight)- 9.85 13.50 9.75 point to lighter fleece weights than last year. While Beef steers--·-·-·-·····-- 11.25 12.25 12.75 Stocker cattle __ _______ _ 10.00 10.25 10.50 8.90 8.75 8.50 sales so far have been in small volume, reported prices 8.35 11.15 8.85 Feeder cattle·-·-·-··---- 9.25 10.50 10.35 Calves ________ _.. _...____ .___ 9.50 10.00 11.00 10.00 10.00 9.00 in Wyoming range from 19 to 21 cents a pound as com7.05 8.10 8.60 10.20 10.55 pared with initial prices of 17 to 18 cents a year ago. Hogs ....... ·-----·-------··--· 6.55 6.00 SheeP------------···-------·-· Fed lambs __ .______ _______ , 8.50 Spring lambs. _________ _ 10.15 8.85 10.00 11.10 7.90 9.65 11.00 7.50 8.85 9.90 10.50 11.00 12.75 12.35 13.00 12.35 STOCKERS AND FEEDERS April shipments of stocker and feeder livestock to the country continued in heavy volume except for hog shipments which were only about half of normal. The countryward movement of cattle was 6, calves 50, and sheep 21 per cent above average and shipments of all livestock were substantially larger than a year ago. For the year to date, the movement of cattle and hogs from markets back to the country has been the largest since 1935, of sheep since 1932, and of calves the largest of record. April stocker-feeder shipments from four markets: Denver______ ·-····---------···· Kansas CitY----·····----··· Omaha ________ ·-·-·---------··· St. Joseph ____________________ Cattle 7,561 41,084 12,429 3,733 Calves 2,437 7,687 1,268 973 Hogs -"Io8 2,361 547 1,212 Sheep 35,004 8,981 15,223 14,340 Apr. 1939.. _.. ______ .......... Mar.1939 ______ ._____________ Apr. 1938-... -.... --.. -·-----· 4 Mos. 1939 _________________ 4 Mos. 1938_ _______________ . 64,807 70,654 50,549 278,766 230,022 12,365 14,884 6,888 57,845 32,035 4,228 4,448 3,343 16,569 15,080 73,548 53,378 30,046 216,789 147,155 RANGES AND PASTURES Although range grass was making a fair start by May 1, growth has been retarded considerably by cool, dry weather and moisture is needed generally to maintain the present favorable condition and to relieve a stock water shortage in sections of Oklahoma and Wyoming. Trade reports indicate that the movement Farm Income Cash farm income for the District as a whole was about 5 per cent larger in March and in the first quarter of the year than it was last year, owing to a substantially increased volume of Government payments. Receipts from the sale of principal farm products have generally been somewhat less than last year. So far this year, income in Colorado shows an increase of 3, Wyoming 25, Nebraska 30, and Missouri 9 per cent. In addition to increased Government payments, the large increase for W"yoming reflects also increased income from meat animals and that for Nebraska large receipts from commodity credit loans on corn. Farm income is down 8 per cent in Kansas, where returns from wheat and dairy products have been much reduced, and is down 6 per cent in Oklahoma and 11 . per cent in New Mexico, where income from cotton has been much lower. Department of Agriculture farm income estimates: Colorado______________ .. _____ . Kansas----·-···--·----.. -·..__--,_ Missouri. __________________ Nebraska ___________________ _ New Mexico .......... -----· Oklahoma_____________ .____ __ Wyoming __________ ________ .. Seven states __ _________ .. __ United States __ _________ __ Mar. 3 Mos. Mar. 1939 1938 1939 (In thousands of dollars) 9,014 9,591 24,963 17,796 17,854 51,959 17,348 15,074 50,893 20,319 17,183 62,287 1,680 2,012 6,079 11,116 12,535 28,179 2,962 2,194 7,323 80,235 582,000 76,443 572,000 231,683 1,687,000 3 Mos. 1938 24,321 56,570 46,767 47,988 6,808 29,942 5,838 218,234 1,679,000 6 REVIEW OF AGRICULTURAL AND BUSINESS CONDITIONS Meat Packing Operations at meat-packing plants in the District were exceptionally light in April as the result of small market supplies and the continued heavy country demand for stocker and feeder cattle, calves, and sheep. The April slaughter of cattle was 20, calves 29, hogs 40, and sheep 24 per cent under average. Hog slaughter, however, was 35 per cent larger than a year ago but cattle slaughter was little above the record low for April in 1938 and that of calves and sheep was the smallest for the month in fifteen years. April packers' purchases at six District markets: Denver........................ . Kansas City............... . Oklahoma City.......... . Omaha........................ . St. Joseph ................... Wichita ...................... . Cattle 13,454 37,638 12,992 54,786 13,686 8,684 Calves 2,683 8,209 5,856 3,344 3,488 2,783 Hogs 18,574 125,676 30,383 81,907 42,746 29,266 Sheep 27,840 94,086 11,078 85,832 80,788 14,884 week of May when supplies of millfeeds for immediate shipment increased and prices declined. Volume of unfilled flour orders on mills' books is now so low that running time is largely dependent on new flour sales for prompt shipment. Four prices increased slightly t oward t he end of April with higher wheat prices. Flour output reported by the Northwestern Miller: Apr . 1939 Kansas City....................... . Salina................................. . Wichita ............................... . Other cities ......................... 570,000 217,000 170,000 1,009,000 Change from Mar. 1939 Apr. 1938 ( In barrels) - 60,000 - 52,000 - 16,000 +53,000 +5,000 +7,000 - 66,000 +19,000 Southwest........................... 1,966,000 - 129,000 +19,000 United St ates *................... 5,443,000 - 449,000 +329,000 *Represents about 60 per cent of total output in United States. Petroleum Preliminar y estimates indicate a decrease of about 4 per cent in daily average crude oil production in the Apr.1939 ..................... 141,240 26,363 328,552 314,508 Mar.1939 ........... ......... 151,393 32,655 336,616 351,370 District during April, following three successive Apr.1938 .................... 140,877 35,581 243,618 344,890 4 Mos.1939 ................. 600,045 121,276 1,400,676 1,306,130 monthly increases dur ing the first quarter of the year. 4 Mos.1938 ................. 673,149 155,686 1,274,711 1,286,278 April output, although very little below average, was about 5 per cent less than last year and production for '" Storage Holdings Cold the year to date shows a decline of 9 per cent. United States cold storage stocks of meats and lard Oil production reported by the American Petroleum remained about stationary during April while hold- Institute and the Bureau of Mines: ings of eggs increased and poultry declined at about Apr. 1939 Mar. 1939 Apr. 1938 Gross D. Av. Gross D. Av. Gross D. Av. the normal rate. Stocks of butter, however, declined --(In thousands of barrels) - contraseasonally and cheese decreased more than Colo................... 109 3.6 90 2.9 132 4.4 usual. May 1 holdings of beef were 46, pork 10, lamb Kans.................. 5,042 168.1 5,489 177.1 5,104 170.1 Mex.............. 3,283 109.4 3,277 105.7 2,925 97.5 20, and lard 7 per cent below, and stocks of poultry 12 N. Okla ................... 13,499 450.0 14,777 476.7 15,137 504.6 and cheese 9 per cent above, the average of the past Wyo................... 1,685 56.2 1,675 54.0 1,468 48.9 five years. Total egg holdings approximated the 5 States............ 23,618 787.3 25,308 816.4 24,766 825.5 average while butter stocks were more than seven U.S .................... 105,172 3,505.7 106,768 3,444.1 102,702 3,423.4 times the average. Stocks of crude petroleum produced in this District, United States cold storage holdings: which are fully 20 per cent smaller than a year ago, May 1 Apr. 1 May 1 May 1 1939 1939 1938 5-Yr.Av. have tended to increase slightly since late in Febr uary, reflecting in part the rather sharp increase in --(In thousands of units) Beef, lbs................................. 36,749 40,970 40,145 68,192 production that took place in March. Mid-continent Pork, lbs ................................. 526,010 523,204 500,564 587,058 Lamb and mutton, lbs.......... 2,055 2,412 2,121 2,558 cr ude oil and refinery gasoline prices are weak. Poultry, lbs............................ 70,580 Miscellaneous meats, lbs..... 62,546 Lard, lbs................................. 129,214 Eggs, shell, cases................. 3,347 Eggs, frozen (case equiv.).. 2,537 Butter, creamery, lbs........... 70,861 Cheese, all varieties, lbs...... 75,348 90,987 62,510 129,252 1,105 1,728 78,909 81,653 60,053 63,058 63,895 68,430 121,890 139,054 3,204 3,838 3,311 2,258 20,144 9,812 76,289 69,414 Flour Milling Operations at southwestern flour mills continued at a relatively high rate through April as mills pressed for shipping directions on old contracts to take advantage of the high prices obtainable for by-product millfeeds. Flour production in April and in the first four months of the year was slightly above a year ago and about equal to the average of the past ten years. Operations, however, dropped sharply in the first Zinc and Lead Shipments of zinc and lead concentrates from the Tri-State district increased somewhat during April. The zinc shipment was about 8 per cent larger than a year ago but that of lead was 26 per cent smaller. April ore shipments from the Tri-State district: ZINC ORE LEAD ORE Kansas......................... Mi ssour i ..................... . Oklahoma................... . Tons Value 10,499 $ 314,980 2,222 66,655 19,471 584,130 Tons Value 1,071 $ 57,378 217 11,756 2,556 137,898 Apr.1939 .................... . Mar. 1939................... . Apr. 1938.................... . 4 Mos.1939 .................. 4 Mos. 1938.................. 32,192 $ 965,765 31,569 921,202 29,953 778,545 126,847 3,716,471 129,373 3,573,410 3,844 $ 207,032 3,425 184,281 5,191 249,275 23,669 1,276,477 20,281 1,006,178 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY Zinc prices, which late in March had advanced for the first time since last November, were strong throughout April but lead prices are weak. Employment and Pay Rolls Employment in the District increased slightly but pay rolls declined from the middle of March to the middle of April. Employment is little changed from a year ago while pay rolls are 3 per cent higher. Preliminary figures of the Department of Labor : April 1939 per cent change from March 1939 E mployment Pay Rolls Colorado...................................................... - 0.2 - 2.9 Kansas........................................................ +2.5 +1.2 Missouri...................................................... + 0.1 - 0.7 Nebraska..................................................... + 0.7 - 0.5 New Mexjco................................................ + 1.0 - 8.1 Oklahoma.................................................... + 1.2 +0.8 Wyoming.................................................... +o.4 - 9.4 Seven states .............................................. . + o.6 - 0.9 Building Value of construction contracts awarded in the eastern half of the District increased shar ply during April and was 44 per cent greater than in April a year ago. Total awards for the first four months of the year show an increase of 35 per cent over last year . Residential building accounts for about two-thirds of these increases. In t he first half of May, however, awards dropped considerably under a year ago. Construction figures of F. W. Dodge Corporation: TENTH DISTRICT 37 EASTERN STATES Residential Apr.1939............... Mar. 1939............... Apr. 1938............... 4 Mos. 1939............ 4 Mos. 1938............ 6,132 3,742 2,782 16,139 8,776 Total Residential Total (In thousands of dollars) 14,735 114,405 330,030 9,460 125,225 300,661 10,205 74,577 222,016 45,343 398,813 1,102,561 33,635 230,203 760,110 The following table gives F. W. Dodge figures for the Kansas City area (Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and western Missouri) broken down by types of construction. In April, awards for residential building were more than twice what they were a year ago and nonresidential building was up 71 and utility construction 27 per cent, while awar ds for public works construction were little changed. For the year to date, residential building shows an increase of 72, nonresidential 35, and utility construction 64 per cent, while public works construction is 13 per cent less. F. W. Dodge figures for the Kansas City area: Apr . 1939 Residential building.................. Nonresidential building ........... . Public Works construction ...... . Utility construction.................. . Total. .......................................... . Apr. 4 Mos.. 4 Mos. 1938 1939 1938 CTn thousinds of dolla~ 5,978 2,618 14,904 8,664 3,951 2,312 14,906 11,055 2,934 2,943 7,336 8,425 2,230 1,761 7,293 4,447 15,093 9,634 44,439 32,591 7 The value of April building permits in reporting District cities was 38 and that for the first four months of 1939 was 31 per cent greater than last year. Value of permits, however, is still more than 10 per cent under the 1937 level. April building permits issued in District cities: PERMITS 1939 1938 Albuquerque, N. Mex ...... ~ Cheyenne, Wyo.............. .. 71 Colorado Springs, Colo... 63 Denver, Colo..................... 598 Hutchinson, Kans............ 73 Joplin, Mo......................... 11 Kansas City, Kans.......... 33 Kansas City, Mo.............. 216 Lincoln, Nebr................... 236 Oklahoma City, Okla...... 173 Om aha, Nebr.................... 183 P ueblo, Colo..................... 96 Salina, Kans..................... 25 Shawnee, Okla................. 21 St. Joseph, Mo......... ......... 23 Topeka, Kans................... 75 Tulsa, Okla....................... 191 Wichita, Kans.................. 280 ~ April... .............................. 2,463 March............................... 2,283 Four months .................... 7,314 2,252 2,226 6,714 94 78 506 72 17 33 174 220 189 156 75 13 11 27 91 110 295 ESTIMATED COST 1939 $ 154,000 $ 121,000 45,000 1,247,000 130,000 43,000 79,000 303,000 161,000 403,000 222,000 78,000 51,000 15,000 138,000 131,000 495,000 258,000 1938 129,000 198,000 89,000 565,000 45,000 19,000 27,000 159,000 94,000 661,000 151,000 46,000 54,000 8,000 28,000 124,000 307,000 252,000 $ 4,074,000 $ 2,956,000 4,141,000 3,056,000 13,778,000 10,515,000 Lumber Board feet sales of lumber at reporting retail yards in the District showed a further seasonal expansion during April. Sales both for April and for the first four months of the year were 11 per cent larger than in the same periods last year. Stocks of lumber, which are about 8 per cent smaller than a year ago, showed little change during April. Collections on amounts outstanding averaged 29.7 per cent in April as compared with 31.1 per cent in March and 32.6 per cent in April a year ago. Lumber trade at 150 retail yards in the District: Sales of lumber, board feet ....................... Sales of all materials, dollars .................. Stocks of lumber, board feet ................... . Outstandings, dollars ............................... April 1939 per cent change from Mar.1939 Apr.1938 +5.5 +11.1 +6.7 - 0.2 +o.5 -7.5 +6.8 +11.7 Life Insurance Life insurance sales in the District in April were about 6 per cent under a year ago but sales for the first four months of the year were up 10 per cent. The Life Insurance Sales Research Bureau report: Change from Apr. 1939 Mar. 1939 Apr. 1938 ( In thousands of dollars) 4,571 - 900 - 604 Colorado ..................................... . 5,500 -1,024 -1,116 Ka nsas ........................................ . 16,204 -2,118 +503 Missouri ..................................... . 4,370 - 1,654 -670 Nebraska .................................... . 954 - 160 - 99 New Mexico ................................ 7,369 -1,483 -685 Oklahoma .................................... Wyoming ..................................... 1,138 -278 +213 Seven states................................ United States............................. 40,106 495,650 -7,617 -80,390 - 2,458 -4,006 REVIEW OF AGRICULTURAL AND BUSINESS CONDITIONS 8 NATIONAL SUMMARY OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS By the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION PvtCt:NT POICCHT 140 ""° 130 ,130 120 11 0 100 90 80 70 f----:J:....-,f-----+----+-- 50....__ ___,c..__ 1934 - + - - - + - - - - - I 70 ___J_ _ ____._ _ ____,__ _ _ _ , _ _ _ 1935 1937 1938 60 1939 Index of physical volume of production, adjusted for seasonal variation, 1923-1925 average=lOO. By months, January, 1934, through April, 1939. FACTORY EMPL.DYMENT AND PAY ROLLS PERCOIT 120 110 11 0 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 Indexes of number employed and pay rolls, without adjustment for seasonal variation, 1923-1925 average=lOO. By months, January, 1934, through April, 1939. Indexes compiled by the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics. DEPARTMENT STORE SALES AND STOCKS PERC£HT 110 100 90 00 70 1---------J' - -- -----l--- - A-- ,__ --.....__,,.- ____,.; - - ·~ - - - + -- ---1 .....,--... 70 60 I--- 50 1---------J'--------l-- -- - 4 - - - - - - - 4 - - - - - + - - - - - 1 50 ------J'--- - - - - - l - - - - - 4 - - - - - - - 4 - - - - - + -- ---1 60 40 .___ ___,'-------'------'--- - - ' - - ----'--------< 40 1934 1935 19 3 6 1937 1938 19 39 Indexes of value of sales and stocks, adjusted for seasonal variation, 1923-1925 average=lOO. By months, January, 1934, through April, 1939. MONEY RATES IN NEW YORK CITY PERCENT 4 Volume of industrial production declined sharply in April reflecting chiefly shutdowns at bituminous coal mines and reduction in activity at textile mills. Retail purchases by consumers were maintained. PRODUCTION In April the Board's seasonally adjusted index of output at factories and mines was at 92 per cent of the 1923-1925 average, compared with 98 in March and 77 a year ago. In the steel industry production declined in April and the first three weeks of May but in the fourth week ingot output increased to 48 ½ per cent of capacity, about the rate prevailing a month earlier. Around the middle of May substantial concessions were made in prices of some types of steel and it is reported that a considerable volume of orders for steel was placed during this period. Automobile production in April was at about the same rate as in March, although there usually is some increase, and in May output declined owing in part to the fact that stocks of new cars were larger than is usual at this time of the year. Plate glass production decreased sharply in April following smaller declines earlier in the year. Textile pr oduction declined sharply in April, particularly at woolen mills, where output had been at a high level, and in the silk goods industry, where further curtailment reflected in part recent high prices for raw silk. Output of shoes showed a decrease from the high level maintained during the first quarter of this year. At flour mills and sugar refineries activity increased further, while in most other nondurable goods' lines changes in output were largely seasonal in character. Bituminous coal production was in small volume during April and the first half of May as most mines were closed pending settlement of contract negotiations between mine operators and workers. After the middle of May agreements were reached at most mines and output began to increase rapidly. Production of anthracite, which had been reduced in March, increased sharply in April and crude petroleum production rose further. In the first half of May anthracite production was maintained but petroleum output declined somewhat. Value of construction contracts awarded, according to the F. W. Dodge Corporation, was larger in April than in March, owing chiefly to a rise in awards for public projects. Contracts for private construction showed little change in the aggregate as private residential contracts declined, contrary to seasonal tendency, while contracts for commercial, factory, and other private construction increased. In the first half of May awards for private work increased somewhat while the volume of public contracts declined. EMPLOYMENT Employment in nonagricultural pursuits declined somewhat from the middle of March to the middle of April reflecting a sharp drop at bituminous coal mines offset in part by seasonal increases in construction and trade. At factories the number employed showed little change while pay rolls declined considerably because of fewer hours of work. DISTRIBUTION In April distribution of commodities to consumers showed about the usual seasonal increase. The Board's adjusted index of department store sales remained at 88 per cent of the 1923-1925 average, about the level that has prevailed since last autumn. Railroad freight carloadings declined sharply owing mainly to a reduction in shipments of coal. Loading of miscellaneous freight showed less than the usual seasonal rise. COMMODITY PRICES Prices of grains and cotton advanced from the middle of April to the third week of May and there were also increases in prices of silk, hides, and bituminous coal. Prices of copper and steel scrap, on the 'Other hand, were reduced and substantial concessions were granted in prices of several leading steel products. BANK CREDIT Total loans and investments at reporting member banks in 101 leading cities, which had increased in April, declined during the first half of May. The decline was at New York City banks and reflected a reduction in loans to security brokers and dealers and redemption of obligations of New York state and city governments. After increasing substantially in April, demand deposits at banks in leading cities showed little change in the first half of May. Bank reserves increased further in May to a new high level. MONEY RATES 0 ' ---=--L-___:___c..__:___:...Jc..__- - - 1 = - : - . i . - - - - - 1 0 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 For weeks ending January 6, 1934, through May 20, 1939. Prices of United States Government bonds and notes increased sharply during the last half of April and the first three weeks of May to new high levels. The average yield on long-term Treasury bonds declined from 2.34 per cent on April 11 to 2.13 per cent on May 22. Other money rates showed little change.
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