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MONTHLY REVIEW Agricultural and Business. Conditions TENTH FEDERAL RESERVE" DISTRICT . I VoL. 23, No. 5 FEDERAL RESEltVE BANK. OF KANSAS CITY Business in the Tenth Federal Reserve District APRIL 1938 COMPARED WITH APRIL 1937 BUSINESS INDICATORS : i -------~---·. % DECREASE % INCREASE 40 30 20 10 10 20 30 40 ·---------:• KANSA I Denver• COLO. •• • ' ·-··-··-··-··-··--r-!--- KANS . •• •• •• ·,.- Financial .• • _Mem. _J)emand ~epoeita_ -··-·- ■ .. Trade _ Wholeaale Salea_. _Retail -- Sale■- _Lumber 5S I Sale■_ Markelin«• _ _Wheat_ _Corn _ _ _ _ oata _ _ ___ cattle_ _ ■ ·-• ■- __ _ Cal"fetl-__ } [ o p_ _ • _ _ Sheep _ _ • ·••• __Flour_ · __ ·- ■ , _Cattle Slausbter_ _Calf Slaua'ht.er_ • -Bos Slaushter_ . I .· · _:_shffll Slauthter_ _Crude Petroleum_ _Bltumlnou■ Coal- .Zinc Ore Shipmenta ·, : Lead Ore Sblpmenta -·■ Production ■ ,. ■ ■ _Dept. Store Sales_ ■- ; ·-·- Loan■- _Life In■• Salea_ I I Bk. -11em. Bk. Inest._ --•-• , _ % INCREASE 10 20 30 40 F. R. Bk. Clearings_ I ' % DECREASE 40 30 20 10 -Bank Debits_ I Another month of heavy rainfall has caused the farm prospect to continue to improve. Subsoil moisture is being restored. While the outlook for farm production is better, farm prices are much below a year ago. Cash wheat is 50 cents and corn 80 cents a bushel lower. Cattle, hogs, and lambs average about 4 cents a pound under last year. Meat packing, flour and petroleum production, and ore shipments are down sharply from a year ago. Construction is about 40% lower. Wheat is being marketed in large quantities, but the amount of other grains and livestock coming to market is less. Wholesale and retail sales continue under a year ago and sales of lumber and life insurance are much lower. Demand deposits are 3%, bank loans 4%, investments 12%, and payments by check 15% under last year. The number of business failures and the amount of liabilities show an appreciable increase. 4 MOS. 1938· COMPARED WITH 4 MOS. 1937 ,. ■ Con•trudion _Total ~ward■:-.........R;ee.A°!"ard■ ___ _ Value of Permlta_ Mi.cellaneau• +11 _ _ Rainfall_'·_ • •-~ Cub Farm I~come. • '·' _ .Emplo7ment_ _' _Pay Rolls _ _ •For prerlous month ■ •• · +51 2 REVIEW OF AGRICULTURAL AND BUSINESS CONDITIONS Member Bank Operation, Total loans at reporting member banks in the Tenth District continued to decline from the third week of April to the third week May. Volume of commercial loans is about 4 per cent smaller than either a month or a year ago. Real estate loans showed a further small increase and are somewhat larger than last year. Investments are little changed from four weeks earlier, an increase in holdings of Government direct ob}iga.. tions and other securities being largely offset by a decline in holdings of obligations guaranteed by the Government. Investments are about 12 per cent below a year ago. Member banks continued to draw down reserve balances carried with this bank and to redeposit these funds at correspondent banks. There was a further sharp increase in balances carried with other -banks, which are now 35 per cent larger than a year ago, and an increase in deposits of other banks at these reporting banks. Adjusted demand deposits showed little change during the four weeks and are only 3 per cent lower than at this time last year. .Principal items of condition of 51 member banks: Principal items of condition of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and branches: Change from May 18 Apr. 20 May 19 1938 1938 1937 (In thousands of dollars) ,308,696 -11,777 +21,222 215 -202 + 19 16 Zero -98 469 + 13 -208 368 +73 +234 124,627 Zero +499 473,048 - 7,344 + 17,206 165,042 -322 +5,302 218,344 -6,497 -20,577 of Loans and investments-totaL........... Loans-total... .................................... ..... · Coml., indust., and agric ..... .... ...... Open market paper._........ .............. To security brokers and dealers.... Other to purchase or carry secur. Real estate loans.............................. Loans to banks................................ All other loans.................. ............. . Investments-total....... ........................ U.S. Govt. direct obligations.-..... Oblig. guar. by U.S. Govt............. Other securities.... ............................ Reserve with F. R. Bank._....... ......... Balances with domestic banks.......... Demand deposits-adjusted ................ Time deposits...................................... U.S. Govt. deposits............................ Interbank deposits ..................... ......... Change from May 18 Apr. 20 May 19 1938 1938 1937 (In thom1ands of dollars) ·626,18G - 4,136 -63,689 240,409 -5,611 •-11,931 145,776 -5,476 -6,597 18,178 +53 -2,592 3,391 -28 -717 12,190 -212 -2,345 21,580 +193 +2,643 535 +41 -734 38,759 -482 -·1,589 385,776 +1,476 -51,758 230,629 +3,480 ~24,205 42,644 -2,984 -2,880 112,603 +980 -24,673 150,976 -7,478 -10,091 268,647 +21,011 +69,547 471,293 +48 -16,654 144,247 -112 -1,210 18,034 -229 +15,057 349,531 +8,936 -6,694 Reserve Bank OP!ratione Volume of industrial loans increased slightly from the third week of April to the third week of May and there was a small further increa..~ in commitments to make industrial advances. While this bank's total participation in the open market account of the Federal Reserve System is unchanged from a month ago, a further decrease in holdings of Tr~sury bonds, offset by an increase in holdings of Treasury bills and notes, occurred late in April. Federal Reserve note circulation of this bank in the third week of May is little changed from four weeks earlier. Circulation this year has not declined appreciably from the seasonally high level reached. late last December. Total reserves.................................. Bills discounted.............. .................. Bills purchased................................ Industrial advances........................ Commit. to make indust. adv. ...... U.S. Government securities.......... Total resources._:.............................. F. R. notes in circulation................ Member bank reserve deposits...... Dollar volume of check collections declined seasonally from March to April. Dollar volume in April was 20 per cent lower than a year ago, the largest decline for any month so far this year. Check collections through this bank and branches: ITEMS 1938 :'\.pril . ............ ·............... . March........................... . Four months ................ 5,937 6,344 22,939 AMOUNT 1938 1937 (In thousands) 6,188 $ 855,536 6,700 919,052 23,530 3,431,258 1937 $1,069,304 1,069,392 3,916,918 Rank Debit1 Debits to individual accounts by banks in reporting centers of the District showed about the usual seasonal decline during April. As in the preceding month, debits were about 15 per cent lower than a year ago. In the first four months of 1938, debits in this District were . 12 and in the whole country about 21 per cent lower than last year. Payments by check in thirty District cities: Albuquerque, N. Mex ..... ...... Atchison, Kans ................... ... Bartlesville, Okla .................. Casper, Wyo ......................... .. Cheyenne, Wyo .................... . Colorado Springs, Colo........ . Denver, Colo ....... .................. Emporia, Kans ..................... . Enid, Okla................ ............... Fremont, Nebr............... ...... . Grand Junction, Colo .......... . Guthrie, Okla ........................ . Hutchinson, Kans ......... .... .. . Independence, Kans ............ . Joplin, Mo ...·--······················· Kansas City, Kans ....... ........ Kansas City, Mo ........ .......... Lawrence, Kans .......... ....... .... Lincoln, Nebr..................... :... Muskogee, Okla.................... . Oklahoma City, Okla ........ .. . Okmulgee, Okla .................... Omaha, Nebr ......... ............. . Pittsburg, Kans .................... . Pueblo, Colo...................... ... Salina, Kans ........................ ... St. Joseph, Mo .....................,. ~~~~a6~~.~:_-_-:::::::::::::::::::::: Wichita, Kans ....................... District, 30 cities.................... United States, Ul cities...... Change from Apr. 1938 Mar. 1938 Apr. 1937 (In thousands of dollars) 13,583 +302 -835 2,877 -26 -652 28,421 +1,315 +897 5,139 -35 -308 7,731 -259 -782 13,316 +134 -196 144,846 -604 . -41,403 2,920 -82 -562 10;672 +137 +21 2,345 -102 - 321 3,333 -186 -616 1,597 -203 -176 10,224 -1,326 -3,530 2,527 -147 -465 8,394 - 979 -2,130 14,774 +1,255 - 163 271,318 -18,555 -63,926 3,310 - 202 - 190 26,651 +1,581 -1,532 7,327 -736 -654 102,662 -2, 702 -5,054 2,725 -177 +42 133,344 -3,725 -26,372 3,739 +99 -230 16,983 +3,972 -4,965 7,761 -482 -1,756 23,907 +15 -3,731 16,389 -1,465 -2,577 139,761 +1,097 -21,907 43,019 -668 -7,206 1,071,595 31,168,215 -22,754 -951,015 - 191,279 -5,975,119 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY Trade DEPARTMENT STORE SALES Dollar volume of department store sales in April was about 3 per cent less than a year ago and in the first four months of this year was nearly 5 per cent less. The smaller decline in April than in the first four months reflects the f~ct that the date of Easter was April 17 this year and March 28 last year. In the first three weeks of May, sales show a decrease of about 11 per cent from the corresponding period of 1937. The declining trend in retail prices was slowed down during April, according to the Fairchild Index. Present prices are approximately 5 per cent under a year ago. Stocks of merchandise at the end of April were little changed from one month earlier but are now about 10 per cent smaller than a year ago. Collections on open accounts averaged 44.6 per cent in April as compared with 46.0 per cent last year, while installment collections averaged 15.4 and 15.7 per cent, respectively. Department store sales and stocks in leading cities: SALES STOCKS Apr. '38 4 Mos.'38 Apr.30,'38 No. of comp.to comp.to compared to Stores Apr. '37 4 Mos.'37 Mar.31,'38 Apr.30,'37 -----. - (Per cent increase or decrease) Denver............... ... 4 - 4.5 -5.2 -3.1 -13.2 Kansas City.......... 4 -6.0 -9.3 +1.6 -12.1 Oklahoma City.... 3 +5.3 +1.1 +0.9 -1.0 Omaha.................. 3 -4.4 -2.7 +6.2 -4.6 Tulsa...................... 4 +5.0 + 1.0 -4.2 -5.1 Wichita........... ....... 3 -3.8 -7.4 Other cities............ 21 -2.8 -5.7 +0.6 -11.8 District........... ....... 42 - 2.9 -4.9 -9.8 +0.3 RETAIL SALF.S April sales of independent retail stores in the District were about 11 per cent lower than a year ago and sales for the first four months of the year were about 10 per cent lower. Sales of independent retail stores reported by the Department of Commerce: Apr. 1938 per cent change from Apr. 1937 Colo. Kans. Mo. Nebr. Okla. AppareL ..................... ........ . - 4.3 +5.o +TI +10.2 +11.1 - 9.0 -7.4 -11.2 -5.3 -25.6 Country general.. ... ........ ·····Department.. .................... .. . - 11.0 -1.5 -3.3 -4.0 +10.1 Drug ......... ....................... ..... . -1.0 -2.1 - 0.5 -1.2 +3.0 Furn. and appliances .......... . - 11.9 -82.7 -14.8 -17.4 -21.7 Grocery........... ................. ..... . -1.8 -5.3 -6.9 -4.6 -2.6 Hardware............................... . -22.8 -24.7 -10.0 -22.2 -19.8 Lbr. and bldg. mtls ...... :....... . - 20.2 -21.4 -24.8 -30.9 -8.1 Motor vehicle ....... .............. . - 37 .1 -33.0 -41.6 -30.9 -31.0 Total........................................ - 15.3 -13.9 - 9.2 -12.7 - 6.0 8 the preceding month but total sales declined about 3 per cent from the March level. Wholesale prices of nearly all commodities except metals and metal products showed further weakness in April and the first half of May. Wholesale sales and stocks reported by the Department of Commerce for this District: Auto. supplies...... 3 Drugs ....................10 Dry goods. ............. 4 Electrical goods. ...13 Furniture.............. 4 Groceries..·--······ ... 15 Hardware-total.. (20) General... ........... 9 Industrial.......... 6 Plbg. & htg....... 5 Jw}ry. & opt. gds. 3 Paper·---··•············ 3 All other lines ...... 11 SALES STOCKS Apr.'38 4 Moe.'88 Apr.30,'38 comp.to comp.to compared to Apr.'37 4 Mos.'37 Mar.31,'38 Apr.30,'37 --(Per cent increase or decrease) -20.9 -4.7 -3.6 -1.6 - 9.6 -16.9 -18.0 -2.9 -28.0 -32.6 -21.5 -4.6 +0.1 -·13.3 -3.9 -3.3 -2.0 +1.6 -17.0 -31.4 - 7.8 +4.2 - 14.7 -8.6 -17.2 +5.3 -19.3 - 48.3 - 0.6 - 1.4 - 30.7 -23.0 - 1.2 - 9.5 -25.0 - 1.6 +3.8 -19.7 -7.2 - 23.4 -12.0 -4.0 -7.7 Total... ................... 86 - 13.3 No.of J'irms -12.3 -0.5 - 10.0 Crope With continued favorable weather conditions through April and the first three weeks of May, the general crop outlook is in striking contrast to a year ago and is even better than a month ago although corn planting in some sections of the District has been delayed by recent heavy rains. As a result of helpful moisture that served to reduce prospective abandonment as well as improve yield prospects, the May winter wheat estimate was incroo.sed 18½ million bushels in Kansas, 3¾ million in Nebraska, and 2¼ million in Colorado. However, drought cut the estimate for New Mexico in half, and the prevalence of orange leaf rust reduced the Oklahoma estimate slightly. Wheat estimates of the Department of Agriculture: ACREAGE YIELD PER ACRE Okla ........................... \Vyo.......... ., .............. . Abandoned 1938 1937 (Per cent) 33.0 40.0 15.0 23.0 5.0 8.8 8.0 26.1 42.0 40.0 10.0 18.0 25.0 49.4 Indic. Final 1938 1937 (Bu.~hels) 12.0 13.5 13.0 12.0 15.0 13.3 15.0 14.0 8.0 11.5 13.0 14.2 11.0 11.5 7 States.......... ........... U. S........................... 11.6 Colo.......................... . Kans ....................... . Mo ............................ . Nebr...................... .... . N.Mex .................... . 18.5 14.9 14 6 PRODUCTION Indic. 1938 Final 1987 (1,000 bushels) 11,628 11,151 192,777 158,040 38,610 41,097 65,145 45,664 1,904 2,829 69,719 65,462 1,870 1,392 381,653 325,625 754,153 685,102 A very large acreage of winter wheat was planted last fall and abandonment has been light in comparison The value of April wholesale sales in this District with a year ago and the average from 1927 to 1936. was about 13 per cent lower than a year ago, approx- Indicated yields on the acreage remaining for harvest imately the same rate of decline as in the first four are genera11y somewhat above average and production months of the year. Distribution of automotive sup- in this District, if present prospects are realized, will plies, furniture, general hardware, plumbing and heat- be the second Jargest of record, being exceeded only in ing supplies, and paper was in larger volume than in • 1931. Wheat has made rank growth. WHOLESALE SALES REVIEW OF AGRICULTURAL AND BUSINESS CONDITIONS 4 April rainfall was ab9ut nqrmaJ or_~bqve in all $.tates. of the District except New Mexicq, an~ a la:rge amount of additional moisture has been received in May. Rainfall in Oklahoma this year h~ been . especially heavy and the deficiency in subsoil moisture in .that state has practi~lly been made g~d. The SaJne is trqe for eastern Kansas and Colorado and improyement has b~n marked in other sections of the District. Irrigation water supplies in Colorado and other western states are larger than last year and • ge~erally satisfactory. to reduce their holdings at lower than present prices which are about in line with Federal corn loans. In the first three week1:; of May, prices showed little change. Cash grain prices at the Kansas City market: Rainfall · Marketings of wheat continued in good volume in April but receipts of .other grains,•as in recent months, ' were small, marketings of corn being only 30 and oats 40 per cent of the ten-year average. Receipts of wheat were substantially larger than in April of last year, while corn marketings were even smaller than a year ago and receipts of oats little more than a third as large. Receipts of grain at five markets in the District: Apr. 1938 4 Mos. 1938 Total Normal Total Normal COLORADO - - . (In inches) Denver .............................................. 2.66 2.06 . 6.98 4.03 Leadville...................................... ...... 1.99 1.78·. 7.03 6.08 Pueblo.-............................................ 1.63 1.31 4.27 · 2.68 Lamar............................................... .55 1.77 2.74 ·3.43 Garnett.................... .......................... .85 .59 2.70 · 1.30 Steamboat Springs .......................... 1.84 . 1.90 . 9.10 8.87 KANSAS·--············ ··· ······· .... ·· ·· ········· ······ Topeka ............................................. Iola .............................................. ...... Concordia......................................... Salina................................................ Wichita·-····· ..................................... Hays.................................................. Goodland.................................. ....... ~lktg:rE!~::::.·.·.:::::::::::·::::::::::::·::::::: 2.01 2.31 · 1.61 2.58 2.85 2.58 1.47 t~~ 2.78 3.90 2.36 2.47 2.91 2.29 2.06 1.94 1.75 6.27 10.19 4.42 5.82 7.36 5.16 4.32 5.45 3.01 7.33 9.29 6.08 5.56 6.69 4.37. ·. 3.74 .. ·4.01 3.44 3.19 3.14, 4.70 6.56 7.72 17.00 8.62 8.61 11.74 MISSOURI. ............................ ................ . St. Joseph. ......................................... 3.18 fo~1f!~?i.~~:::::::::::··:::::::::::::::::::::.::: ~:~~ NEBRASKA Omaha .................... .......................... 6.19 Lincoln ....................... ...................... 3.63 Norfolk.................... ..................... ..... 2.52 · Grand Island.................................... 4.00 McCook. ............... ................... .......· 2.31 North Platte ........... ......................... 3.60 Bridgeport......................................... 2.36 . Valentine .......................................... 4.40' NEW MEXICO ' Clayton. __ ········............ ..................... .78 Santa Fe·--···················~··············.-.··· .50 Farmington................. .................... .32 OKLA.HOMA . . Tulsa·--······ ...................................... McAlester..·--················· ................. Oklahoma City........................:...... Pauls Valley.-................................... Hobart ............................................... Enid ................................... : ............. Woodward........................................ Wheat Hutchinson ... :............ Kansas City·-··········· Omaha...................... St. Joseph. .. _..c •••••••••• . Wichita.-...............,... Apr. 1938.................. Mar. 1938·-----········· Apr.1937._ ___ ··········· 4 Mos. 1938............ ,. 4 Mos. 1937.............. 5.47 2.51 ., 7.29 2.53 7.41 5.39 · · . Liv~stock 5.28 5.36, 2.69 2.46 5.98 . 5.12 4.22 . 3.74 1.86 Marketings of 2.06 4:71 3.84 pared with last 2.li 3.55. , 3.81 2.18 6.50 4.51 somewhat below 1.78 1.00 ; .64 . 3.88 2.72 3.06 3.68 1.97 2.81 4. 76 4.13 4.58 3.29 3.88 3.10 3.26 2.49 2.11 1.63 2.88 1.34 1.99 1.96 2.06 1.92 WYOMING Cheyenne..............................·-········· Casper·--········ . ················· ················· Lander .............................................. Sheridan.................. ........................:. No.1 hd., dk. wheat,bu .... ~·...... No. 2 mixed corn, bu ....\............. No. 2 white oats, bu ..:................. No. 2 rye, bu ............. ~ ..................' No. 2 barley, bu .. ,........................ No. 2 white kafir, cwt.·--··~········ Grain Marketing Corn Oats Rye Barley Kafir (In thousands ofbushels) - 6 558 331 303 102 68 204 12 17 21 27 2 1 10 5,663 1,202 6,723 2,120 3,637 1,396 24,398 11,113 16,171 7,713 9 374 698 1,002 2,897 5,007 22 65 43 374 129 38 16 238 88 431 35 63 64 403 282 MARKETINGS cattle are declining steadily as comyear, calf and hog receipts continue year ago, and sheep receipts are 2.80 increasing. April marketings of cattle and hogs, em- · 1.96 2.36 3.22 phasizing drought reductions in livestock numbers, 3.16 ' · 2:38 ,.' were the lowest of record for that month, falling 27 16.53 10.72 and· 60 per cent, respectively, below the April average 19.49 12.74 of the past ten years. Sheep :receipts, while larger than 13.15 7.57 20.13 9.07 in 1936 and 1937, were much smaller than in April of 7.59 6.40 the. years 1'929 to ·1935 and about 16 per cent below the . 7.92 7.10 8.58 5.60 ten-year ·average. · Calf receipts approximated the aver- · .. age. Total livest.ock marketings in the first four months . 4.09 4 .7 0 3.11 4.71 of the year show a decrease of about 7 per cent from 5.31 4.44 1 t 3.68 4 .63 . as year. Livestock receipts at •six markets in the District: The cash price of wheat declined fµrther during Api;il as growers continued to reduce .their holding~ in view . of the promising new crop outlook. . Stocks o_f .wheat in the United States on April 1 totaled about 337 million bushels as coin.pared with 229 million a year ago, and. present prospects indicate a c.arry-over of from 170. to . 200 million bushels on July 1. Th~ cash price of corn has been well mai.ntained since grqwers are n9t .qisposed. 1 632 3,384 737 195 705 May 23 Apr. 30 Mar. 31 Apr. 30 1938 1938 1938 1937 $ :79 $ .80¾ $ .87¼ $1.33 _½ .55 .54½ .557S 1.38 .28½ .27½ .30¾ .56 .54 .55 .62 ½ 1.10 .60 .51 .54' .87 .92 .83 .85 2.36 a Denver............................ Kansas City.......... .... ...... Oklahoma City.............. Omaha ............................ St. Joseph·-······ •·············· Wichita._ ......................... Cattle 26,938 70,801 27,459 78,000 17~562 23,135 Apr: 1938... ~.........·........... 243,895 311,192 Mar. 1938........................ Apr. 1937........................ 301,149 4 Mos~ 1938...........:........ ' · 1,159,324 4 Mos. 1937..... ·-············- 1,237,104 Calves 3,916 17,626 10,293 6,812 5,813 4,408 Hogs 19,878 83,194 36,357 66,155 45,171 19,439 Sheep 230,133 140,661 17,638 144,700 117,620 16,451 . 270,194 667,203 48,868 283,447 584,898 61,611 642,580 58,435 315,465 222,458 1,445,075 2,203,497 254,921 1,549,425 2,352,757 FEDERAL RESERVE JlANK OF KANSAS CITY PRICES Notwithstanding unusually light receipts, the downward trend in livestock prices after the middle of March continued through April except for a brief rally in cattle. and lamb prices early in the month. Hog prices declined from $9.35 a hundredweight at the middle of March to $7.60 in early May, falling to the lowest level of the year. The cattle top dropped from $9 .85 to under $9.00 and the lamb top from $10.00 to about $8.65. About the middle of May, a strong upward trend .in prices developed. In this upturn, beef cattle prices recovered to $10.00 a hundredweight to equal ·the year's high early in January, hogs reached $8.55 and lambs $9.50. Prices of stocker cattle are as high as a year ago although fat cattle values are much lower. Top livestock prices at the Kansas City market: May 23 Apr. Mar. Apr; Apr. Apr. 1938 1938 1938 1937 1936 1935 -(In dollars per hundredweight) Beef steers ........................... . 10.00 9.85 9.85 13.50 9.75 14.25 Stocker cattle....................... . 8.75 8.90 8.50 · 8.75 8.50 9.05 Feeder cattle ....... ............ ..... 8.65 8.35 8.40 11.15 8.85 10.25 Calves....... .............. ......... ..... . 9.50 10.00 10.00 10.00 9.00 9.00 Hogs ... ................................. . 8.55 8.60 9.35 10.20 10.55 9.00 Sheep..................................... . 5.25 6.00 7.00 9.50 9.00 5.35 Fed lambs............................. . *7.10 8.85 9.25 12.75 12.35 8.35 New crop spring lambs....... . 9.50 9.90 10.00 13.00 12.35 10.00 *Shorn basis. STOCKERS AND FEEDERS Following the heavy movement of ·March, shipments of stocker and feeder cattle and calves to the country during April fell somewhat under a year ago and 20 and 16 per cent, respectively, below the April average for the past ten years. Hog shipments, which were 8 per cent smaller than in April of last year, continue about a third of normal .and shipments of sheep, which were 25 per cent less than a year ago, were less than half the average volume. For the first four months of the year, cattle and calf shipments show little change from last year, hogs an increase of 20 per cent, and sheep a decrease of 14 per cent. Stocker and feeder shipments from four markets: Denver ............................... ....... Kansas City.-.......... ........ ......... Omaha...................................... St. Joseph ................................. Apr. 1938 ........................ .......... Mar. 1938 ................. ............... Apr. 1937.................................. 4 Mos. 1938....................... ....... 4 Mos. 1937.............................. Hogs Cattle , Calves 1,240 ~ 4,949 1,664 3,378 30,534 1,064 1,739 12,543 574 531 . 2,523 Sheep 6,533 4,424 8,427 10,662 3,343 . 3,495 3,642 15,080 12,583 30,046 36,329 40,138 147,155 170,761 50,549 70,760 60,874 230,022 229,611 6,888 9,661 7,205 32,035 32,253 RANGES AND PASTURES Reflecting the greatly improved moisture situation this year, ranges and pastures have made substantial progress toward recovery. While weed growth is heavy and the grass has been thinned by drought, most · of · the Great Plains area that was dry in 1937 has ample . moisture to start new feed, and spring range and pasture feed pro.spects are the best in several years. The Osage 5 pastures of Oklahoma, which are in excellent condition, hav~ been well . filled with cattle from the Southwest but the Blue Stem pastures of. Kansas, which are still much below normal, have sharply fewer cattle grazing than at this time last year. Range and pasture conditions reported by the Department of Agriculture: RANGES May 1 1938 Colo. ............. Kans.·---······· Mo................. Nebr............... N. Mex......... . Okla. .............. Wyo............... 79 59 79 81 84 85 PASTURES May 1 '28-'37 May 1 May 1 1937 · Aver. 1938 1937 (In percentages of Ioo'as normal) 77 81 70 67 51 71 62 57 84 70 63 82 63 51 81 81 72 68 72 76 75 60 73 80 87 73 '27-'36 Aver. . 73 71 75 77 68 71 80 Shearing .of wool was well under way by the first of May. Sales have been rather limited although some of the old clip is moving and a small amount of the new clip has been contracted. Reported sales range from· 16 to 20 cents a pound in New Mexico, from 17 to 18 cents in Wyoming, and from 18 to 24 cents in Colorado as compared with a price of 29 to 35 cents a pound a year ago. However, the outlook has improved somewhat since the.inauguration of Government loans on wool. Farm Income Cash farm income in the District in March was 23 · per cent lower and iri the first quarter of the year 17 per cent lower than a year ago. Fully four-fifths of the dec'line is in smaller receipts from t.he sale of crops, · largely the result of lower prices, and in a substantially smaller volume of Government payments. So far this year, cash farm income ih Kansas shows a decrease of 16 per cent from last year, Nebraska 19, Missouri 7, Oklahoma 19, Colorado 28, Wyoming 11, and New Mexico 21 per· cent. Income had shown no increase in Nebraska in 1937 .as it did in other states in this District, and this is the second successive year of declines in that state. . Income estimates ~f the Department of AgriC1;11ture: Change from Mar. 1938 Feb. 1938 Mar. 1937 (In thousands of dollars) 9,591 +2,967 ·- 6,172 Colorado................................:.. ··--·· -148 -4,079 Kansas .. ···········-··.............. :...:........ . ·17,854 +601 -2,779 Missouri. ........................................ . 15,074 +3,106 -4,348 Nebraska ....................................... . 17,183 2,012 +642 +299 New Mexico.-.................. ............. . +3,968 -6,633 Oklahoma:................................. :.... . 12,635· 2,194 , +662 -890 Wyoming ................. - .................... . Seven states....... ,...... ,.....................· 76,443 United States·--··············,·············· 572,000 +11,798 +85,000 - 22,602 -136,000 With a sma11 .further decline in .the general level of prices received by f~rmers for farm products and no change in prices paid by farmers for articles they buy, the exchange value of farm products dropped to 75 per cent .at the middle of April. A year ago this ratio was 97 per. cent. 6 REVIEW OF AGRICULTURAL AND BUSINESS CONDITIONS Flour production reported by the Northwestern Miller: Meat Packing Operations at · meat-packing plants in the District were unusually light in April. The slaughter of cattle and hogs was 15 per cent smaller than in the same month last year and at a record low for April, cattle slau~hter being 22 and hogs 55 per cent below the April average of the past ten years. Calf slaughter, which has been particularly heavy in recent years, fell 25 per cent below a ye~ ago but was only 4 per cent under the ten-year average. Sheep slaughter continues about 17 per cent below average. Packers' purchases at six markets in the District: Cattle 14,496 35,900 13,049 51,440 14,221 11,771 Denver............. ,................... . Kansas City........................ . Oklahoma City .................. . Omaha .................................. St. Joseph ............................. . Wichita................. ................ . Apr. 1938........................... ... Mar.1938·-················· ........ Apr. 1937-.. ..........................' 4 Mos. 1938........ . ................ 4 Mos. 1937......................... Calves 2,934 10,899 7,049 4,898 5,257 4,544 Hogs 18,994 80,601 29,124 55,402 41,195 18,302 Sheep 31,633 105,061 7,972 91,527 93,389 15,308 140,877 35,581 243,618 344,890 168,391 41,408 253,334 333,016 164,969 47,242 285,432 357,808 673,149 155,686 1,274,711 1,286,278 712,970 202,607 1,368,549 1,405,847 Cold Storage Holdinga After allowing for seasonal influences, Unites States cold storage holdings generally tended to decline in April. Stocks of pork decreased considerably more than usual and holdings of lard and eggs showed much less than the usual increase. However, there was a sharp contraseasonal increase in butter stocks and an unusually small decrease in stocks of cheese. Stocks of meats and shell eggs are much below the five-year average and stocks of frozen eggs, butter, and cheese are very large. United States cold storage holdings: Apr. 1 May 1 May 1 1988 1988 1937 5-Yr.Av. --(In thousands of units) 39,903 50,501 111,653 66,294 500,086 543,947 756,354 613,017 2,131 2,901 4,574 2,489 59,971 78,819 94,888 60,212 63,728 69,884 99,431 64,632 121,702 121,316 209,444 129,055 3,309 1,303 4,405 4,168 3,307 2,756 ~.520 1,956 19,540 14,387 6,406 7,663 75,985 77,042 83,096 62,881 May 1 Beef, lbs .._.............................. . Pork, lbs .. : ........................... .... . Lamb and mutton, lbs .......... . Poultry,, lbs .......... ........ ........... . Miscellaneous meats, lbs ........ . Lard, lbs ................·.................. . Eggs, shell, cases......... ............ . Eggs, frozen (case equiv.) ...... Butter, creamery, lbs ............ . Cheese, all vari~~ies, lbs ........ . Flour Milling Operations at southwestern flour mills continued in April at about the same rate as in the first three months of the year but the comparison with a year ago is showing a more marked decrease. April output was 14 per cent lower than a year ago and that for the four months 10 per cent lower. However, production is still nearly equal to the average of the past ten years. With further declines in flour prices and an unusually favorable outlook for the new wheat crop, flour buying interest is largely limited to small lot orders for immediate needs. Kansas City......................... ..... . Salina................................ ......... . Wichita........... ........................... . Other cities.................... ............. . Change from Apr. 1938 Mar. 1938 Apr. 1937 (In barrels) -12,315 629,804 -13,802 -22,262 164,063 +17,654 -64,759 163,199 -15,345 989,557 -209,961 -79,099 Southwest.................................... 1,946,623 -90,592 -309,357 United States•............................ 5,079,371 -'380,565 -327,465 *Represents about 60 per cent of total output in United States. Petroleum Daily average crude oil production in the District declined further in April, output falling 21 per cent under that in April of last year when production was at its peak in 1937 and at a near-record level. Production for the first four months of the year shows a decrease of 13 per cent from last year although output is still appreciably above the ten-year average. Oil production reported by the American Petroleum Institute and the Bureau of Mines: April 1938 Gross D. Av. Colo............. Kans............. N. Mex....... Okla............. Wyo............. 121 5,012 3,190 14,907 1,473 March 1938 April Gross D. Av. Gross · - - ( I n thousands of barrels-)4.0 116 3.7 136 167.1 5,292 170.7 6,026 106.3 3,159 101.9 3,147 496.9 16,297 525.7 20,416 49.1 1,499 48.4 1,537 5 States........ 24,703 823.4 26,363 850.4 U. S...... ...... 102,033 3,401.1 106,524 3,436.3 1937 D. Av. 4.5 200.9 104.9 680.6 51.3 31,262 1,042.2 104,979 3,499.3 Stocks of crude petroleum in the District continue at a level slightly above 150 million barrels, somewhat under the high level at this time in 1936 but fully as large as a year ago. Crude oil prices are weak, and refinery operations• that have been sharply curtailed since last fall are being projected for early summer on a basis little above that at the present time, reflecting the unsettled condition of the market for refined oil products also. Coal April was the first month this year in which output of bituminous coal in the District was larger than a year ago, the increase measuring 22 per cent as compared with a decline of 30 per cent for the first four months of the year. In April of last year, output was at an abnormally low level following a period of heavy production in anticipation of a possible strike at mines. Coal output estimated from reports of the National Bituminous Coal Commission; Apr. 1938 Colorado................................ . Kansas and Missouri... ........ . New Mexico........................... . Oklahoma............................... . Wyoming ................ ............... . 333,000 390,000 89,000 33,000 323,000 Six states................................ 1,168,000 United States._....................... 22,195,000 Change from Mar. 1938 Apr. 1937 (In tons) +32,000 -96,000 +170,000 -57,000 -40,000 -7,000 .:..19,000 +14,000 -73,000 +34,000 -252,000 -4,550,000 +210,000 -3,846,000 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY Zinc and Lead In April, shipments of zinc from Tri-State mines and tailing mills were 28 per cent under a year ago and lead shipments were 11 per cent smaller. Producers are reluctant to dispose of accumulating zinc stocks at present prices and output of both zinc and lead has fallen by the middle of May to the lowest level of the year. Shipments estimated from Joplin News-Herald reports: ZINC ORE LEAD ORE Kansas ................. . MissourL ............ . Oklahoma............ . Tons 9,385 1,959 18,609 Value $ 243,947 50,972 483,626 Apr. 1938....... ...... Mar. 1938..·-········· Apr. 193L........... 4 Mos. 1938.......... 4 Mos. 1937...... ... 29,953 33,955 41,839 129,373 163,069 $ 778,545 922,107 1,830,042 3,573,410 6,701,419 Tons 1,625 $ 539 3,027 Value 78,028 25,901 145,346 5,191 $ 249,275 6,027 289,904 5,798 418,168 20,281 1,006,178 21,733 1,672,290 Zinc prices show further weakness but lead prices are steady. So far this year zinc and lead prices have averaged about 33 per cent lower than in the same period last year when prices had advanced to the highest level in nearly a decade. 7 The value of building permits issued in reporting District cities in April was only about one-half as large as a year ago and in the first four months of the year only about two-thirds as large. The number of permits shows only a small decrease. Building permits issued by eighteen District citie~: PERMITS Albuquerque, N. Mex ......... Cheyenne, Wyo ................... Colorado Springs, Colo....... Denver, Colo ....................... Hutchinson, Kans ... ...... ...... Joplin, Mo ............................. Kansas City, Kans ............. Kansas City, Mo ..... ........... Lincoln, Nebr ....................... Oklahoma City, Okla ......... Omaha, Nebr .................. .... Pueblo, Colo......................... Salina, Kans .................... .... Shawnee, Okla ..................... St. Joseph, Mo ........... .......... Topeka, Kans ............ .......... Tulsa, Okla........................... Wichita, Kans ... .. ................ ESTIMATED COST 1988 1937 91 106 $ 94 65 78 86 506 729 72 139 17 23 55 33 174 290 220 194 189 206 156 206 75 111 13 20 11 16 27 51 129 91 100 140 295 263 ---- 1938 1937 129,000 $ 265,000 198,000 302,000 89,000 125,000 665,000 1,004,000 45,000 47,000 19,000 28,000 27,000 79,000 159,000 499,000 94,000 138,000 661,000 472,000 151,000 774,000 46,000 56,000 64,000 34,000 8,000 9,000 28,000 23,000 124,000 1,036,000 307,000 767,000 252,000 281,000 April ............. ............... .......... 2,242 2,827 $ 2,956,000 $ 5,939,000 3,056,000 5,163,000 March ..... ...................... .. .... 2,236 2,194 Four months .. ...................... 6,725 7,102 10,666,000 15,667,000 Employment and Pay Rolls Lumber Employment in the District showed a further small increase from the middle of March to the middle of April but pay rolls continue to decline. Employment in April was 9 and pay rolls 12 per cent under a year ago and for the first four months of the year the decline averages about 8 per cent. Preliminary figures of the Department of Labor: Board feet sales of lumber at reporting retail yards in the District showed a further seasonal expansion in April but fell 18 per cent below sales in the same month last year. For the year to date, sales are 11 per cent smaller than a year ago. Collections on amounts outstanding averaged 32.6 per cent in April as compared with 33.6 per cent m March and 43.1 per cent in April of last year. Lumber trade at 155 retail yards in the District: April 1938 per cent change from March 1938 Colorado............... ........................ Kansas ................................. . ..... . MissourL .... ....... .. ................ ...... . Nebraska .................................... . New Mexico................................ . Oklahoma................................... . Wyoming ............................... ...... Employment - 0.4 +0.8 -1.5 +1.7 Zero Pay Rolls - 1.9 -0.2 -2.0 +1.9 +0.5 -0.2 -2.6 -0.7 -3.5 Building The value of construction contracts awarded in this District in April was more than 40 per cent lower than in the same rn<mth last year, reflecting principa1ly sharply lower awards for nonresidential construction. Total awards so far this year are about 23 per cent below a year ago, the decline being about equally divided between residential and nonresidential construction. Construction figures of the F. W. Dodge Corporation: 37 EASTERN Reside:r.tial Total Residential (In thousands of dollars) 2,782 10,205 74,577 2,826 11,014 79,396 4,237 17,237 108,013 8,776 34,192 230,203 14,176 44,247 339,591 TENTH DISTRICT Apr. 1938 ................... . Mar. 1938................. .. Apr. 1937.............. ..... . 4 Mos. 1938 . .. :.......... 4 Mos. 1937................ STATES Tctal 222,016 226,918 269,934 763,444 932,640 Sales of lumber, board feet ................... Sales of all materials, dollars................. . Stocks of lumber, board feet................ . Outstandings, dollars ................ ............ . April 1938 per cent change from March 1938 April 1937 +5.6 -18.4 + 10.0 -11.7 +o.5 -4.5 +8.1 +12.3 Life Insurance April life insurance sales in the District were. about 24 per cent smaller than last year. With this marked decrease, total sales so far this year now show a decline of 12 per cent from a year ago. The Life Insurance Sales Research Bureau report: Colorado............................. . Kansas ............................... . Missouri... ......................... . Nebraska ........................... . New Mexico......... .............. Oklahoma......... .................. . Wyoming .. ......................... . Seven states....................... . United States........... ., ..... ... Change from . Apr. 1938 Mar. 1938 Apr. 1937 (In thousands of dollars)- . 5,175 -476 -1,778 6,616 -521 -2,148 15,701 -2,492 -5,953 5,040 -629 -1,330 1,053 - 240 -252 8,054 -1,602 -1,388 925 - 189 -364 42,fi64 499,656 . -6,149 -68,817 - 13,213 -192,406 8 REVIEW OF AGRICULTURAL AND BUSINESS CONDITIONS NATIONAL SUMMARY OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS By the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION "•corr ot• et.. 140 140 1:,0 130 120 120 110 110 l00 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 ,o 60 1934 19H 1135 1931 1938 Index of physical volume of production, ad- . justed for seasonal variation, 1923-1925 average = 100. By months, January, 1934, through April, 1938. -- 120 -~ FACTORY EMPLOYMENT AND PAY ROUS r------,------,,-------,-----,---..::.:., 120 Industrial production declined in April, reflecting chiefly reduced activity in the cotton textile and lumber industries. Distribution of commodities increased less than seasonally but continued to be somewhat in excess of production. Commodity prices showed a further decrease. PRODUCTION In April ·volume of industrial production, as measured by the Board's seasonally adjusted index, was at 77 per cent of the 1923-1925 average as compared with the level of about 79 per cent maintained during the first quarter of the year. The decline reflected, chiefly, considerable reductions in output at cotton textile mills and lumber mills, where there had been moderate increases in production in March. In most other manufacturing ·industries rhanges in activity were largely seasonal in character. Output at steel mills continued at around 33 per cent of capacity and in the automobile industry showed little change, amounting in April to about . 40 per cent of the volume of a year ago. In the first three weeks of May production of steel and automobiles was at a lower rate than in April. At mines there was a considerable decline in output of anthracite in April, while bituminous coal production showed somewhat less than the usual seasonal decrease. Crude petroleum production continued in large volume. Value of construction contracts awarded, which had increased considerably in March, showed little change in April, according to figures of the F. W. Dodge Corporation. Awards usually increase somewhat further in April. In the first four months of this year private residential building was about one-fourth less than in the corresponding period last year, while other private work, particularly industrial and utility construction, was only about one-half as large as a year ago. Awards for public projec~s were somewhat larger than last year. EMPLOYMENT so .,___ ___,__ ____,'--~--'------'-----'--___.so 11134 11135 1936 1937 1938 Indexes of number employed and pay rolls, without adjustment for seasonal variation, 19231925 average 100. By months, January, 1934, through April, 1938. Indexes compiled by the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics. = DEPARTMENT STORE SALES lttt C[Nf j f l ( (llff zoo ;::.:..------,------,.-----~----r~-~200 150 1-----+-----f------'---------111<) 100 - DISTRIBUTION Distribution of commodities to consumers showed less than the usual seasonal rise in April. The Board's adjusted index of department store sales was 83 in April compared with 86 in March and 90 at the beginning of the year, and figures for the first hali of May indicate a further decrease. Freight carloadings also declined from March to April, reflecting largely reduced shipments of miscellaneous freight, and were about 30 per cent less than in April, 193~. COMMODITY PRICES V 50 Factory employment and pay rolls declined from the middle of March to the middle of April, and the Board's seasonally adjusted index of employment was at 79 per cent of the 1923-1925 average as compared with 82 in March and 84 at the beginning of the year. The number employed at automobile factories declined sharply and there were further substantial derreases in the steel and machinery industries and at railroad repair shops. Smaller declines were reported in most other manufacturing industries. Employ,nent at mines and on the railroads also decreased, while in· trade there was some increase in the number employed, reflecting partly inrrease<i. ·business at the Easter season; · IOJUSTEI FOIi SCISONAI. VARIATION WllHOUT SEASON..._ AOJUSTM(NT o~------'--------...L----~----'o 19~ 1934 1931 1937 I~ Indexes of value of sales, 1923-1925 average= 100. By months, January, 1934, through April, 1938. Wholesale prices of industrial commodities continued to decline from the middle df April to the third week of May and prices of agricultural products also decreased somewhat further. Steel scrap, copper, and rayon showed considerable declines and there· were reductions in prices of some finished industrial products~ It was announced that prices of most finished steel products would be unchanged for third · quarter delivery. . B.\NK QREDIT MEMBER BANKS IN IOI LEADING CITIES 81U.ICINS <If OOlLMI 81Ult!NS0f DOU.MIS t4 24 22 16 Total loans and investments of reporting member banks in 101 leading cities showed.' little change during April and the first. half of May. Holdings of United States Government obligations increased somewhat, while holdings of other securities and loans declined. Adjusted demand deposits in leading cities increased during the period. as a result of expenditures by the Treasury from its balances with Reserve banks. Interbank deposits also increaged substantially. Member hank reserves increased · further, reflecting principally Treasury disbursements from its deposits at. the Reserve banks, including retirement of .$50,000,000 of Treasury bills each week. MONEY ~ATES AND BOND YIELDS 0 ~ ~ - - - _ , __ _ _.....__ _ __,__ '34 19311 19:56 1937 Wednesda-y figures for reporting banks in 101 leading cities. September through May 18, 1938. Total deposits, ini; interbank, are adjusted to exclude _ ___, 1938 member 5, 1934, exclud"float." 0 Yields on Government securities declined slightly further in the four weeks ending May 21- to an average for longer-term Treasury bonds of 2.28 per cent. The averacre yield on 3- to 5-year Treasury notes declined to a new low of 0.73 per cent. The r:te on three-month Treasury bills continued at record low levels, and other open-market money -rates remained unchanged.
@FedFRASER