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MONTHLY REVIEW Agricultural and Business Condittons TENTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT VoL. 24, No. 3 FEDERAL RESERVE B A MARCH K OF KANSAS CITY 31, 1939 Business in the Tenth Federal Reserve District FEBRUARY 1939 COMPARED WITH FEBRUARY 1938 ----------L.--.• Denver• COLO. % INCREASE 10 20 30 40 % DECREASE i 40 30 20 10 I I ·--------:• KANSA •• ·-·--·------·-··-r-!--- I )(ANS . 10 20 30 40 I I F. R. Bk. Clearings . I I Financial % INCREASE % DECREASE 10 40 30 20 ------Bank Debits __ _ I I 2 MOS. 1939 COMPARED WITH 2 MOS. 1938 BUSINESS INDICATORS I _..Mem. Bk. Loans_ I I ...Mem. Bk. Invest. __ ■ __ Life Ins, Sales __ I • ...Demand Deposits_ Trade Construction activity continues the most favorable aspect of the situation. Contracts awarded are more than double last year and lumber sales are higher. Department store sales are about 4 % under last year and sales of other retail stores are less. Wholesale sales are also slightly lower. The amount of moisture received in the District in the last two months has been appreciably above normal and the condition of winter wheat in many sections is improved. Generally speaking, the outlook for spring planting of crops is favorable. Livestock receipts continue light and slaughter operations are lower. The marketing of wheat and the production of flour are about the same as last year but the amount of corn being sold is substantially smaller. Deposits and investments of banks are somewhat higher than a year ago, but bank loans are not greatly changed. _ Wholesale Salee ___ I _____ Retail Sales._ I ...Dept. Store Sales_ I •• I -· I - I I • ·- ___Lumber Salee_ Marketing, -----~--Wheat ____ ______ corn ______ • ____ Qats ____ _____cattle ____ ■ I • I _____Flour _ _ _ ■- .. Cattle Slaughter __ P,·mluction ___Calf Slaughter __ ■ _ _Hog Slaughter_. I .. Sheep Slaughter.... •••• • • - I I I I ______Hogs _ _ ______Sheep __ _ ·- ■ ■ _______Calves _______ I I -55 . Crude Petroleum __ _ Bituminous CoaL. Zinc Ore Shipments -• I ■ ■ ■ • I Lead Ore Shipments +IZ5 +85 Construction _ +70 +98 Total Awards ___ ___ _Res. A wards _____ _ Value of Permits_ /If i,ccllaneous ____ Rainfall _ _ Caeh Farm Income* _____ Employment ____ _______ Pay Rolla ____ *ll'or 11re1•lous month +81 I --· I 2 REVIEW OF AGRICULTURAL AND BUSINESS CONDITIONS Member Bank Operations Loans at reporting member banks in the Tenth District declined slightly further from the middle of February to the middle of March. Commercial loans continue to decline and there was a rather sharp decrease in loans to brokers and dealers in securities and in other loans for purchasing or carrying securities that was offset in part by a further increase in socalled "all other" loans. Investments also declined during the four weeks as the result of a sharp decrease in holdings of Treasury notes. Holdings of other maturities of Government obligations, of obligations guaranteed by the Government, and of "other" securities increased during this period. Volume of loans is virtually unchanged from a year ago, while investments are about 2 per cent larger. Adjusted and other demand deposits increased appreciably between the middle of February and the middle of March and there were large increases in reserve balances carried at this bank and in correspondent balances carried at other banks. Adjusted demand deposits and deposits due to banks are about 6 per cent larger and balances due from banks 22 per cent larger than a year ago. Principal items of conditions of 51 member banks: Loans and investments-total.. ....... Loans-total ....................................... Coml., indust., agric ...................... Open market paper........................ To security brokers and dealers.. Other to purchase or carrysecur. Real estate loans............................ Loans to banks............................... All other loans................................ Investments-total... ........................ U.S. Treasury bills....................... U. S. Treasury notes..................... U.S. Govt. bonds ............................ Oblig. guar. by U.S. Govt............ Other securities............................. Reserve with F. R. Bank. ................ Balances with domestic banks ......... Demand deposits-adjusted ............ Time deposits ..................................... U.S. Govt. deposits........................... Interbank deposits ............................. *Comparable figures not available. Change from Mar. 15 Feb. 15 Mar. 16 1939 1939 1938 (In thousands of dollars) 654,557 -6,634 +6,702 256,825 -1,231 +524 153,871 -950 -5,344 18,554 +22 -17 4,718 -173 +211 9,887 -2,012 -2,481 23,037 +232 +2,097 504 -3 +36 46,254 +1,653 +6,022 397,732 -5,403 +6,178 5,103 +3,905 * 84,867 -15,968 * 117,206 +3,378 * 56,036 +2,234 +9,954 134,520 +1,048 +22,064 167,552 +12,063 +4,831 276,569 +8,091 +49,884 503,090 +4,741 +29,881 143,616 -889 -1,309 23,256 +856 +5,067 360,829 +8,366 +22,711 Reserve Bank Operations Note circulation of this bank tends to rise again, averaging nearly 169 million dollars in the first half of March as compared with an average of 168 million in February and 168¾ million in January. Circulation of 168¾ million at the middle of March, while lower than the record of 172¼ million in the third week of December last year, compares with slightly less than 166 million a year ago and 158¾ million at this time in 1937. Principal items of condition of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and branches: Change from Mar. 15 Feb. 15 Mar. 16 1939 1939 1938 ( In thousands of dollars) 325,292 +11,782 +37,001 353 -179 -218 16 Zero Zero 216 -15 -251 689 -20 +592 132,098 Zero -6 497,811 +15,510 +33,328 168,719 +998 +2,781 237,165 +12,383 -1,605 Total reserves............................. Bills discounted.......................... Bills purchased........................... Industrial advances................... Commit. to make indust. adv... U.S. Government securities.... Total assets................................. F. R. notes in circulation.......... Member bank reserve deposits Dollar volume of check collections in February and in the first two months of the year was approximately 3 per cent larger than in the corresponding periods of 1938. Check collections through this bank and branches: ITEMS 1939 February................. . January................... . Two months ............. 5,132 5,768 10,900 AMOUNT 1938 1939 ( In thousands) 5,030 $ 768,740 5,628 932,377 10,658 1,701,117 1938 $ 753,695 902,975 1,656,670 Bank Debits Debits to individual accounts by banks in reporting centers of the District declined slightly more than seasonally during February. Volume of payments by check was fractionally smaller than in the same month a year ago in contrast with an increase of nearly 8 per cent for the country as a whole. Payments by check in thirty District cities: Albuquerque, N. Mex ........ Atchison, Kans .................. . Bartlesville, Okla .............. . Casper, Wyo ...................... . Cheyenne, Wyo ................. . Colorado Springs, Colo .... . Denver, Colo ...................... . Emporia, Kans .................. . Enid, Okla.......................... . Fremont, Nebr.................. . Grand Junction, Colo........ Guthrie, Okla ..................... . Hutchinson, Kans .............. Independence, Kans .......... . Joplin, Mo .......................... Kansas City, Kans ............ . Kansas City, Mo ............... . Lawrence, Kans ................ . Lincoln, Nebr .................... . Muskogee, Okla................ . Oklahoma City, Okla ........ . Okmulgee, Okla ................ . Omaha, Nebr ..................... . Pittsburg, Kans ................ . Pueblo, Colo ....................... . Salina, Kans ...................... . St. Joseph, Mo ................... . Topeka, Kans .................... . Tulsa, Okla ........................ . Wichita, Kans ................... . Change from Feb.1939 Jan.1939 Feb.1938 (In thousands of dollars) 12,710 -2,554 +485 2,464 -351 -124 23,501 -6,926 +10 4,950 -1,315 +374 6,498 -1,812 +301 10,742 -4,417 +501 134,885 -16,263 +8,657 2,478 -1,069 -358 7,587 -2,071 -1,825 2,136 -458 +56 2,872 -583 -89 1,426 -411 -160 9,590 -399 -200 2,509 -683 -1 8,236 -1,840 +121 13,945 -5,286 +1,199 233,887 -54,728 -5,915 3,099 -352 +191 23,934 -1,638 +1,724 6,818 -1,936 +321 89,156 -15,501 -1,293 2,082 -785 -264 120,919 -24,848 +5,980 3,238 -929 -384 12,275 -3,651 -2,306 6,525 -716 -1,176 22,107 -7,207 +1,295 17,541 -4,484 +1,063 111,603 -29,089 -10,127 38,613 -6,652 -675 District, 30 cities.............. . United States, 141 cities ... 938,326 -198,954 -2,619 27,490,293 -4,849,284 +1,943,084 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY Trade RETAIL SALES Dollar volume of sales at reporting department stores in the District declined ab<;m t 6 per cent during February, although an increase is usual at this season. Sales in January had been little changed from a year ago, but in February they were more than 3 per cent lower and in the first three weeks of March continue about 3 per cent under the level of last year. Retail prices, according to the Fairchild Index, continued firm through February at a level about 2 per cent below a year ago. Stocks of merchandise, which are 4 per cent smaller than last year, increased seasonally during February in anticipation of Easter trade which was just getting under way by the middle of March. Collections on open accounts averaged 42.7 per cent in February as compared with 43.5 per cent a year ago, while installment collections averaged 15.9 and 14.5 per cent. Department store sales and stocks in leading cities: SALES -3.5 -1.5 -4.4 +12.5 Total retail sales in February and in the first two months of 1939 were slightly under a year ago. Decreases were general for nearly all retail lines except automobile dealers. Sales of independent retail stores reported by the Department of Commerce: Apparel.. ........ General.. ........ Department... Drug._ __ Furniture....... Grocery.......... Hardware..... Lbr. &mtls ... . Automobile .... Total............... Feb. 1939 per cent change from Feb. Colo. Kans. Mo. Nebr. Okla. -9.4 -TI +2.0 -4.3 -2.1 -1.6 -5.0 -4.5 -5.6 -19.8 -1.7 -3.3 -3.3 -3.0 -1.9 -8.2 +2.4 +2.1 Zero -4.5 +8.1 -5.8 -8.7 +1.7 -1.1 -2.9 -3.4 -2.2 -3.9 -2.2 -0.5 -1.4 -23.8 -12.6 -10.1 +0.4 -6.0 -5.2 +39.6 +22.1 +12.3 +20.9 +12.4 +9.9 -2.1 -2.7 -0.9 -0.1 +0.1 than 12 per cent lower than a year ago. Collections averaged 68.2 per cent in February against 70.1 per cent last year. Wholesale sales and stocks reported by the Department of Commerce for this District: SALES STOCKS ,Feb. '39 2 Mos.'39 Feb. 28, '39 No. of comp.to comp. to compared to Firms Feb. '38 2 Mos.'38 Jan. 31,'39 Feb. 28,'38 (Per cent increase or decrease) Auto supplies... 8 +3.5 -1.0 +1.1 +3.8 Clothing............ 3 -22.7 -11.1 -4.1 -14.5 Drugs................ 8 +3.8 +2.6 +0.3 -3.0 Dry goods ......... 4 -1.7 +o.7 +u -29.5 Elect!. goods.... 8 -15.6 +21.3 +2.3 +17.1 Farm products. 11 +2.4 -4.1 +14.8 Furniture......... 3 -10.2 +5.7 Groceries .......... 31 -4.5 -3.3 -3.7 -15.5 Hdwre.-total..(17) +27.7 +15.3 -3.4 +o.7 General........... 5 +8.4 +2.6 -4.8 +1.0 Industrial....... 6 +88.0 +48.4 Zero +1.7 Plbg. & htg..... 6 +8.3 +8.6 Machinery........ 4 -17.7 -15.4 +2.4 Tobacco &prod. 6 -2.4 -3.2 All other lines., 15 -3.3 +9.4 -2.5 +5.0 Total... .............. 118 -0.9 +o.3 -0.5 -12.5 Crops STOCKS Feb. '39 2 Mos.'39 Feb. 28, '39 No. of comp.to comp. to compared to Stores Feb. '38 2Mos.'38 Jan. 31,'39 Feb. 28,'38 - - ~ e r cent increase or decrease) Denver.............. 4 -4.3 -2.7 +4.0 -6.6 Kansas City...... 4 -6.1 -3.0 +10.1 -10.3 Oklahoma City. 3 +1.4 +6.1 +20.3 +7.1 Omaha............... 3 -2.7 +1.1 +19.8 +0.1 Tulsa................. 4 -2.8 -4.9 +21.4 +6.5 Wichita............ ~ 3 -4.9 -4.0 -Other cities ....... 19 -2.7 -2.4 +14.3 -7.8 District.............. 40 3 1938 Wyo. --2.3 -11.4 -13.2 -5.1 -17.5 -20.5 +10.2 -2.1 WHOLESALE SALES The value of wholesale sales in the District in February and in the first two months of the year was little changed from a year ago. Of the principal lines, February sales of drugs and hardware were larger and of dry goods, groceries, and furniture smaller than la~t year. Total sales declined about 6 per cent from January to February. Dollar inventories are more Farmers' planting intentions as of March 1 indicate that, with the principal exception of spring wheat, the acreages to be sown to crops in the District this spring will be somewhat larger than in 1938. Because of the sharp decrease in the acreage sown to winter wheat last fall, however, the total acreage of crops indicated for 1939 is about 5 per cent smaller than last year. While a part of the acreage that was taken out of wheat will be sown to corn, a large part of it will be put in barley and, particularly, in grain sorghums that have withstood recent droughts better than corn. The intended corn acreage in Kansas is still more tha_n 40 and in the District more than 25 per cent below the average from 1929 to 1938. Department of Agriculture estimates of spring planting intentions for states of this District: Indicated Planted Average 1939 1938 1929-38 --(In thousands of acre-s)-Corn........................................ 18,723 18,002 25,277 Spring wheat......................... 653 942 965 Oats........................................ 6,976 7,167 7,291 Barley.................................... 3,201 2,371 2,203 Tame hay*............................. 7,001 6,725 7,878 Grain sorghums.................... 5,550 4,559 4,343 Dry beans.............................. 664 623 703 White potatoes...................... 324 345 392 Sweet potatoes...................... 37 36 35 Tobacco.................................. 8 7 6 Soybeans................................ 387 379 465 Peanuts.................................. 48 38 56 Cowpeas................................. 206 183 173 Flaxseed................................ 78 60 70 *Acreage for harvest or harvested. Snows and rains toward the end of February and early in March materially improved the outlook for winter wheat. A considerable acreage of wheat had already been injured beyond recovery from lack of REVIEW OF AGRICULTURAL AND BUSINESS CONDITIONS 4 moisture that prevented proper root development before winter set in and in many sections stands are very thin and spotted. The recent moisture has conditioned the top soil and will reduce the hazard of loss from soil drifting and promote rapid root growth. By the middle of March, winter wheat was greening as far north as Kansas and will soon provide pasture for livestock. February precipitation was normal or above in nearly all sections of the District except central Nebraska and the panhandle and western sections of Oklahoma. been made on about 7 million bushels of wheat in Kansas, 4½ million in Oklahoma, 31/2 million in Nebraska and on about 161/3 million bushels of corn in Nebraska, 6 million in Missouri, and 31/2 million in Kansas. February grain receipts at five District markets: 1,138,000 2,483,000 798,000 227,000 914,000 591,000 435,000 171,000 4,000 150,000 306,000 272,000 Rainfall Feb. 1939.......................... 5,560,000 Jan. 1939........................... 6,450,000 Feb. 1938.......................... 5,544,000 2 Mos.1939....................... 12,010,000 2 Mos. 1938....................... 12,022,000 1,201,000 2,309,000 2,545,000 3,510,000 7,791,000 728,000 1,310,000 846,000 2,038,000 1,826,000 COLORADO Denver................................ Leadville............................ Pueblo................................ Lamar................................. Garnett............................... Steamboat Springs.......... Feb. 1939 2 Mos.1939 Total Normal Total Normal --uninch~ 1.28 2.02 .53 .93 2.64 1.04 1.42 2.38 1.42 .47 2.62 .78 1.13 .60 2.33 .86 .09 .19 .96 .32 3.07 2.41 6.36 4.63 KANSAS Topeka............................... Iola..................................... Concordia........................... Salina................................. Wichita.............................. Hays ................................... Goodland ............................ Dodge City................... .... Elkhart............................... 1.52 1.41 1.17 1.97 1.93 1.05 2.07 .96 .70 1.51 1.47 .88 1.08 1.25 .82 .58 .77 .56 2.22 2.78 1.57 2.33 3.02 1.53 2.70 1.64 1.76 2.45 2.80 1.49 1.70 2.03 1.15 .78 1.18 .84 1.26 .98 3.00 1.67 1.75 1.68 2.19 2.26 5.30 2.95 2.94 3.84 1.55 1.54 1.32 1.11 .53 .15 .83 .66 .89 .95 .88 .80 .66 .53 .48 .55 2.05 2.13 2.15 1.43 1.16 .85 2.09 2.02 1.59 1.59 1.47 1.35 1.00 .92 .87 1.03 Clayton............................... .45 Santa Fe............................. 1.08 Farmington....................... .53 .50 .75 .76 1.17 3.01 1.17 .72 1.42 1.30 1.10 4.31 .43 .84 .20 .51 1.03 1.66 2.20 1.11 1.50 .96 1.16 1.08 4.44 6.95 4.19 3.82 4.85 3.85 3.93 3.57 5.07 2.30 3.09 1.72 2.22 1.68 .75 .31 1.20 .68 .64 .85 .63 .70 1.46 .58 1.48 1.08 1.06 1.51 1.19 1.55 MISSOURI St. Joseph .......................... Kansas City....................... Joplin .................................. NEBRASKA Omaha.............................. Lincoln.............................. Norfolk .............................. Grand Island ..................... McCook. ............................. North Platte...................... Bridgeport......................... Valentine ........................... NEW MEXICO OKLAHOMA Tulsa................................... McAlester.......................... Oklahoma City.................. Pauls Valley...................... Hobart................................ Enid .................................... Woodward.......................... WYOMING Cheyenne........................... Casper................................ Lander................................ Sheridan............................. Grain Marketing Wheat marketings in February continued about unchanged and corn marketings substantially below a year ago, with receipts of wheat less than t wo-thirds and corn little more than a fourth of their normal volume for that month. Growers tend either to hold grain for better prices or to seal it under Government loans at rates well above the market price. Loans have Wheat Hutchinson ...................... . Kansas City..................... . Omaha............................... St. Joseph ......................... Wichita ............................. Corn (In bushels) Oats Cash wheat and corn prices tend to ease slightly further. Export demand is dull, recent moisture has improved the outlook for the domestic winter wheat crop, and unwieldy surpluses of wheat in exporting countries, together with the prospect of a record world carry-over on July 1, forced foreign markets by early March to new low levels for the season. The lower range of cash prices at Kansas City: Mar. 23 Feb. 28 Jan.31 Feb.28 1939 1938 1939 1939 No.1 hd., dk. wheat, bu ....... $ .67½ $ .68 ½ $ .69 ¾ $ .98 .47 .53 No. 2 mixed cor n, bu ............. .45 ½ .45½ .29 ¾ .291,4 .29 .31½ No. 2 white oats, bu ............. . .71 No. 2 rye, bu .......................... .44 ½ .45 .44½ .41 .55 No. 2 barley, bu ................... .. .40 .40 No. 2 white kafir , cwt ......... . .78 .76 .74 .87 Livestock MARKETINGS Livestock marketings generally continued very light in February, receipts of cattle and sheep falling about 20 and hogs 55 per cent short of the ten-year average. Calf marketings were about normal for the month. Except for cattle, marketings of which were 8 per cent smaller than a year ago, receipts were little changed from last year, calf receipts showing an increase of 1 and hog and sheep marketings decreases of 4 and 3 per cent, respectively. February livestock receipts at six District markets: Denver .................... Kansas City........... Oklahoma City...... Om aha .................... St. Joseph ............... Wichita................... Cattle 21,150 70,490 22,687 74,846 19,252 19,846 Calves 5,428 13,528 11,161 6,707 3,349 4,217 Hogs 22,741 97,027 38,366 100,103 42,902 21,947 Sheep 114,410 117,588 9,502 124,557 86,892 15,151 Feb.1939 ................ Jan.1939 ................ F eb. 1938............... 2 Mos. 1939............ 2 Mos.1938 ............ 228,271 325,111 247,315 553,382 604,237 44,390 59,469 43,969 103,859 111,979 323,086 540,030 335,358 863,116 891,434 468,100 470,649 480,815 938,749 951,396 PRICES Aided in part by the small volume of receipts, livestock prices are fairly strong for this sea~on of the year. Demand for stocker and feeder cattle continues broad, the average price for both steers and calves 5 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY rising by the middle of March to the highest level since 1930. While fat cattle values show some seasonal weakness, the virtual absence of prime quality marketings such as brought the $14.00 top price last January is holding current top prices much below that as short-fed steers and yearlings continue to dominate beef cattle marketings. Hog and lamb prices advanced seasonally in February, hogs reaching their highest level since early last October and lambs since late December, then declined in the latter part of the month and early in March. Spring lambs in March sold up to $10.60 a hundredweight as compared with $10.00 a year ago and fed lamb prices recovered sharply about the middle of the month. Top livestock prices at the Kansas City market: Beef steers .............. . Stocker cattle .......... . Feeder cattle ........... . Calves....................... . Hogs ......................... . Sheep ....................... . Fed lambs ................ . Mar. 23 Feb. Jan. Feb. Feb. Feb. 1939 1939 1939 1938 1937 1936 - - (In dollars per hundredweight-) 11.50 11.50 14.00 9.25 13.00 11.25 10.25 9.75 9.75 8.25 8.35 8.25 9.75 10.00 10.35 8.25 9.00 9.25 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.00 10.50 11.00 7.35 8.15 7.70 8.85 10.25 10.75 8.25 7.75 8.10 7.00 9.25 9.25 9.50 9.15 9.10 8.35 10.65 10.75 STOCKERS AND FEEDERS Countryward shipments of cattle and calves were exceptionally heavy in February, with cattle shipments 47 per cent larger than a year ago and a fourth larger than normal while calf shipments were more than three times what they were a year ago and almost three times the average volume. Shipments of hogs were 25 and sheep 10 per cent lower than last year, hogs falling about half and sheep about a third short of the average. February stocker-feeder shipments: being limited to some extent by high prices, lack of finances, and difficulty in obtaining desirable stock. A limited amount of contracting of the 1939 wool clip has taken place in Colorado at prices ranging from 20 to 21 cents a pound. WOOL Wool production in the District in 1938 was 3 per cent larger than in 1937, an increase of nearly 4 per cent in the number of sheep shorn being offset in part by a slightly smaller average weight per fleece. However, production was unchanged in the important wool-producing state of New Mexico, where a decrease in the number of sheep shorn was offset by heavier fleece weights, and in Colorado production declined as a result of a decrease in both of these factors. Local market prices for wool averaged substantially lower in 1938 than in 1937 and the value of shorn wool produced in the District declined more than 40 per cent. Department of Agriculture shorn wool estimates: PRODUCTION PRICE VALUE 1938 1937 1938 1937 1938 1937 (000 pounds) (cents per lb.) ( 000 dollars) 2,316 4,238 18.0 32.0 Colorado ............. 12,862 13,243 535 944 3,666 3,148 15.0 30.0 Kansas ............... 1,705 3,036 8,973 8,673 19.0 36.0 Missouri.. ........... 443 723 2,956 2,493 16.0 29.0 Nebraska.......... . 2,772 4,310 18.0 28.0 New Mexico ....... 15,400 16,394 310 436 1,938 1,666 16.0 28.0 Oklahoma......... . 5,660 9,412 18.0 31.0 Wyoming ........... 31,389 30,361 Seven states...... 77,084 74,868 United States .... 372,810 366,609 17.8 30.9 19.1 32.0 13,730 23,099 71,378 117,270 Farm Income January cash farm income in the District was 10 per cent larger than a year ago as the result of an increase of 33 per cent in receipts from the sale of crops and Government payments that were more than twice Cattle Calves Hogs Sheep what they were in January last year. Receipts from Denver........................... 17,975 9,101 10,206 the sale of livestock and livestock products were 4 per ~ Kansas City.................. 27,024 4,910 1,810 4,440 Omaha........................... 14,553 2,189 415 14,399 cent lower. Income was 46 per cent larger in NeSt. Joseph ...................... 3,815 743 1,391 4,973 braska because of the large volume of commodity Feb.1939 ........................ 63,367 16,943 3,659 34,018 credit loans on corn and there was an increase of 14 Jan. 1939....................... 79,938 13,653 4,234 55,845 per cent in Oklahoma and 9 per cent in Missouri. InFeb.1938.................... ... 43,148 4,866 4,878 37,639 2 Mos.1939 .................... 143,305 30,596 7,893 89,863 come was 27 per cent lower in New Mexico, owing 2 Mos.1938 .................... 108,713 15,486 8,242 80,780 largely to a sharp decrease in income from cotton, In February, snow storms and unusually low tem- and there were declines ranging from 6 to 10 per cent peratures closed much of the range area in Wyoming in Colorado, Kansas, and Wyoming. and Colorado and necessitated heavy supplemental Department of Agriculture income estimates: feeding of hay and concentrates. The cold weather Change from Dec.1938 Jan.1938 Jan.1939 also retarded growth of wheat pastures and green <In thousands of dollars) feed in Kansas, Oklahoma, and New Mexico but the Colorado ........................... 7,633 -1,781 -473 +1,809 -1,351 snows greatly improved the moisture situation in Kansas .............................. 19,363 18,792 -2,466 +1,572 ......................... . Nebraska and Kansas. Although there was some Missouri.. Nebraska......................... . 24,392 + 5,636 + 7,664 2,490 -2,053 -936 shrink during February, livestock has generally win- New Mexico .................... . 10,059 -794 +1,219 Oklahoma........................ . tered in good condition and death losses have been Wyoming..................... .... . 1,907 -1,346 -205 light. Reports from western sections of the District Seven states..................... 84,636 - 995 +7,490 indicate that the tendency to restock cattle herds is United States................... 627,000 -26,000 +7,000 6 REVIEW OF AGRICULTURAL AND BUSINESS CONDITIONS Meat Packing The exceptionally heavy demand for stocker and feeder cattle and calves as a result of the favorable feed situation has greatly reduced supplies available for current slaughter. February packers' purchases of cattle were 14 and calves 11 per cent below a year ago and ·1s and 11 per cent, respectively, under the February ten-year average. Hog slaughter was 5 per cent lighter than a year ago and only half of normal, while sheep slaughter continues above last year but 9 per cent under average. February packers' purchases at District markets: Denver......................... Kansas City................ Oklahoma City........... Omaha..................... :... St. Joseph .................... Wichita........................ Feb.1939 ..................... Jan.1939 ...................... Feb.1938..................... . 2 Mos.1939 .................. 2 Mos.1938.................. Cattle 11,719 35,412 12,073 50,918 14,591 8,760 Calves 2,932 8,546 8,115 4,518 2,619 3,577 Hogs 20,021 87,089 23,123 86,740 33,306 17,478 Sheep 30,300 · 101,040 6,319 87,082 79,107 13,737 133,473 . 173,939 155,732 307,412 363,881 30,307 31,951 34,054 62,268 78,697 267,757 467,751 281,785 7351608 777,759 310,136 640,252 608,372 United States cold storage stocks of meat continue much under normal, with March 1 holdings of beef 52, pork 16, and lamb 38 per cent below average. Lard stocks, which declined contraseasonally during February, and total stocks of eggs, despite a contraseasonal increase in shell egg holdings, are about 8 per cent below average. Holdings of poultry are 5 and cheese 16 per cent larger than normal while butter stocks remain at a very high level. United States cold storage holdings: Mar. 1 Mar. 1 1939 1938 5-Yr.Av. --(In thousands of units) 46,727 53,126 57,023 97,383 542,803 526,411 582,654 642,062 2,764 2,925 3,523 4,490 116,300 133,531 100,493 110,539 67,456 76,238 77,779 85,7Sl 125,372 132,078 116,979 136,884 164 136 281 148 1,271 1,438 2,536 1,418 92,800 111,354 21,033 18,978 91,625 106,411 86,656 79,261 Feb. 1 1939 Beef, lbs .............................. . Pork, lbs ............................. . Lamb and mutton, lbs ...... . Poultry, lbs ........................ . Miscellaneous meats, lbs ... Lard, lbs ............................. . Eggs, shell, cases .............. . Eggs, frozen (case equiv.) Butter, creamery, lbs ......... Cheese, all varieties, lbs ... . Change from Jan.1939 Feb.1938 ( In barrels) -53,000 -46,000 -27,000 +50,000 -19,000 -36,000 -79,000 +15,000 Feb.1939 Kansas City........................ Salina................................. . Wichita............................... . Other cities......................... 514,000 192,000 129,000 945,000 Southwest........................... 1,780,000 -188,000 -7,000 United States*................... 5,140,000 -243,000 +277,000 *Represents about 60 per cent of total output in United States. Petroleum Daily average production of crude petroleum in the District declined somewhat further in February. Output was about 14 per cent smaller than a year ago although only 3 per cent under the ten-year average and was the smallest for any February since 1935. Oil production reported by the American Petroleum 317,685 322,667 Institute and the Bureau of Mines: Cold Storage Holdings · Mar. 1 February. Flour prices are about steady to weaker but millfeed prices have advanced. Flour output reported by the Northwestern Miller: Flour Milling February production at southwestern flour mills was fractionally smaller than a year ago and about 4 per cent under average but output for the first two months of the year shows a small increase over last year. Despite the extremely small volume of unfilled orders on mills' books and th.e continued absence of large flour sales, the volume of hand-to-mouth buying is sufficient to keep mills operating at a fah:iY. good rate. Exports show some improvement following an increase in the Federal subsidy in the latter part of Colo ............... . Kans ............... N.Mex ............ Okla............... . Wyo ............... . Feb. 1939 Jan. 1939 Feb. 1938 Gross D. Av. Gross D. Av. Gross D. Av. --(-In thousands pf barrels) 3.9 103 3.3 104 3. 7 108 4,129 147.6 4,931 159.1 4,786 170.9 2,853 101.9 3,062 98.8 2,905 103.8 12,304 439.4 13,951 450.0 14,986 535.2 1,400 50.0 1,463 47.2 1,261 45.0 5 States.......... 20,794 742.7 23,510 758.4 24,042 858.6 u. s................. 93,273 3,331.2 102,490 3,306.1 94,662 3,380.8 Stocks of crude petroleum produced in this District, following little change in the two preceding months, resumed their decline in February and are now more than 20 per cent smaller than a year ago. Stocks of gasoline in Oklahoma and Kansas are about as large as a year ago while stocks of fuel oils are 23 per cent larger. Gasoline prices have recently tended to be firmer but prices of other refinery products .are weak. Crude oil prices in March also gave some indication of firming although prices in some areas are still below posted schedules of major buyers. Coal Production of bituminous coal in the District fo February was 14 per cent larger than a year ago. With this increase, output for the first two months of the year shows an increase of 5 per cent over last year. Coal output estimated from reports of the National Bituminous Coal Commission: Feb.1939 Colorado..................... . Kansas and Missouri. New Mexico............... ~ Oklahoma................... . Wyoming.................... . 629,000 637,000 121,000 153,000 471,000 Six states..................... 2,011,000 United States.............. 33,910,000 Change from Jan.1939 Feb.1938 (In tons) +30,000 +93,000 +9,000 . +13,000 -22,000 +l3,000 :::-9.,000 . +21;000 ~3,000 . _. .- ·+10~~000 +5,000 -1,620,000 +246,000 +6,470,000 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY 7 The value of February building permits in reporting District cities was little changed from the preShipments of zinc from the Tri-State district increased during February but lead shipments dropped ceding month and slightly larger than a year ago. sha;rply. Production of both zinc and lead declined Value of permits for the first two months of 1939, _m oderately. The zinc shipment was little changed however, is 24 per cent larger than last year. February building permits issued in District cities: from a year ago while that of lead was up 5 per cent. PERMITS ESTIMATED COST February ore shipments from the Tri-State district: 1939 1938 1939 1938 Albuquerque, N. Mex .. 60 58 $ 154,000 $ 124,000 ZINC ORE LEAD ORE Zinc and Lead Kansas ............................. . Missouri. ......................... . Oklahoma........................ . Tons Value 10,615 $ 307,855 1,942 56,328 20,546 595,824 Feb. 1939.......................... Jan. 1939.......................... Feb. 1938.......................... 2 Mos. 1939....................... 2 Mos.1938...................... 33,103 $ 960,007 29,983 869,497 33,345 936,865 63,086 1,829,504 65,465 1,872,758 Tons Value 1,471 $ 78,877 235 12,552 4,066 217,145 5,772 10,628 5,483 16,400 9,063 $308,574 576,590 276,713 885,164 466,999 Since the first of the year, zinc concentrate stocks have declined nearly a third. Zinc prices, however, have remained unchanged since late last November. Lead prices have fluctuated somewhat the past two months but show little net change. Employment and Pay Rolls, Employment and pay rolls in the District declined slightly from the middle of January to the middle of February. Employment is also slightly lower than a year ago but pay rolls are about 2 per cent higher. Preliminary figures of the Department of Labor: February 1939 per cent change from January 1939 Employment Pay Rolls iirgff~=--~-i~---i=~!-~-i=~=:i·i:~~!-~~ii~:~:~::_: ~il ~i~i ~i1~:r;~::::~:::::::_:::::::::::::::::::::::_:::::::_:::: ~ ~:i !~:i Seven states ............................................... . -0.5 -0.6 Building Cheyenne, Wyo ............. Colorado Springs, Colo. Denver, Colo .......... ·-··· Hutchinson, Kans ......... Joplin, Mo ...................... Kansas City, Kans ....... Kansas City, Mo ........... Lincoln, Nebr ................ Oklahoma City, Okla ... Omaha, Nebr ................. Pueblo, Colo .................. Salina, Kans .................. Shawnee, Okla.............. St. Joseph, Mo ............... Topeka, Kans ................ Tulsa, Okla.................... Wichita, Kans ............... February....................... January.......................... Two months ................... 121 62 56 12 13 5 25 127 118 17 33 347 30 17 18 81 70 103 42 37 10 10 16 40 68 135 52,000 15,000 1,005,000 46,000 9,000 210,000 102,000 128,000 325,000 121,000 34,000 201000 12,000 3,000 56,000 374,000 108,000 16,000 15,000 424,000 17,000 23,000 690,000 88,000 70,000 764,000 46,000 16,000 15,000 7,000 4,000 48,000 148,000 170,000 1,202 1,366 2,568 1,132 1,114 2,246 $2,774,000 2,788,000 5,562,000 $2,685,000 1,817,000 4,502,000 26 30 320 29 8 19 100 71 Lumber Retail lumber sales declined sharply during February and were only 3 per cent larger than in the same month a year ago. In the last half of 1938, lumber sales had risen appreciably above the level of a year earlier, coincident with the substantial rise that has taken place in building operations. Collections on amounts outstanding averaged 27.4 per cent in February as compared with 33.5 per cent in January and 29.3 per cent in February last year. Lumber trade at 151 retail yards in the District: Feb.1939 per cent change from Jan.1939 Feb.1938 Sales of lumber, board feet......................... -26.1 +3.4 Sales of all materials, dollars..................... - 20.5 +3.6 Stocks of lumber, board feet....................... +2.3 -7.7 Outstandings, dollars ................................. _ -2.6 +13.2 Value of construction contracts awarded in the District in February was more than double a year ago. Life Insurance The greater part of this increase represented public Life insurance sales in the District in February works and utilities, but there was a large increase also were 6 and in the first two months of year 24 per cent in residential and in commercial building. Aside from larger than in the same periods a year ago. residential construction, about 85 per cent of current The Life Insurance Sales Research Bureau report: building represents public activity. Awards in the Change from first half of March were 24 per cent under last year, Feb.1939 Jan.1939 Feb.1938 reflecting reduced nonresidential building. (In thousands of dollars) Colorado..................................... . 4,501 -1,638 -289 Construction figures of F. W. Dodge Corporation: TENTH DISTRICT 37 EASTERN Residential Total Residential (In thousands of dollars) Feb. 1939..................... 3,134 12,034 79,020 Jan. 1939..................... 3,131 9,114 80,163 Feb. 1938..................... 1,694 5,342 40,023 2 Mos. 1939................. 6,265 21,148 159,183 2 Mos. 1938.................. 3,168 12,416 76,230 STATES Total 220,197 251,673 118,945 471,870 311,176 Kansas ........................................ . Missouri ..................................... . Nebraska................................... New Mexico ............................... . 6,496 18,042 5,049 1,096 8,403 1,120 -1,840 -6,659 -2,945 -263 -3,425 -26 +395 +1,658 +657 -72 -312 +338 Seven states............................... 44,707 632,032 -16,796 -197,734 +2,375 +43,329 -i~~~i:t~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ United States............................. REVIEW OF AGRICULTURAL AND BUSINESS CONDITIONS 8 NATIONAL SUMMARY OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS By the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION PEIICEHT PEIICEHT 140 140 130 130 120 120 110 110 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 Index of physical volume of production, adjusted for seasonal variation, 1923-1925 average=lOO. By months, January, 1934, through February, 1939. CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS AWARDED NIWONSat 00U.AIIS IIIUIONS OF OOl.LAflS 500 500 4001----+---+----t----+----=:t----t-400 1934 1935 1936 1937 t938 1939 FACTORY EMPLOYMENT Factory employment and pay rolls increased somewhat less than is usual between the middle of January and the middle of February. Changes in nonmanufacturing lines were largely of a seasonal nature. _,. 120 120 110 110 100 lOO 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 Index of number employed, adjusted for seasonal variation, 1923-1925 average=lOO. By months, January, 1934, through February, 1939. DISTRIBUTION Department store sales were in about the same volume in February as in January, although some increase is usual, and sales at variety stores increased less than seasonally, while mail-order sales rose by slightly more than the seasonal amount. In the early part of March department store sales increased. Freight carloadings declined somewhat from January to February, reflecting for the most part reduced shipments of grains, forest products, and miscellaneous freight. COMMODITY PRICES . Wholesale commodity prices were generally maintained with little change · during February and the first three weeks of March. As is usual at this season prices of livestock and meats increased while dairy products declined. Silk prices advanced considerably in this period. In the early part of March current prices of pig iron and of semi-finished and finished steel were reaffirmed for the second quarter of this year. BANK CREDIT MONEY RATES IN NEW YORK CITY 3 2 2 PRODUCTION Volume of industrial production was at about the same rate in February as in the two previous months, although usually there is an increase, and the Board's seasonally adjusted index declined further to 98 per cent of the 19231925 average. In the steel industry activity did not show the usual seasonal advance. Pig iron production increased, but new orders for steel were in limited volume and ingot production remained at about 54 per cent of capacity throughout the month. There was some decline in automobile assemblies, following a period of considerable increase. Output of lumber and plate glass continued to decrease in February, while cement production, which had been curtailed in January, increased considerably. In the first three weeks of March steel production increased to about 56 per cent of capacity and automobile output was also in somewhat larger volume. Textile production in February was at about the same rate as in January. At cotton and woolen mills activity increased somewhat but at silk mills there was a marked decline. Output of shoes and tobacco products continued at high levels. In the meat-packing industry activity declined further and there was also a decrease in activity at sugar refineries. Bituminous coal production was maintained in February, and crude petroleum output likewise continued in substantial volume. Anthracite output declined in February, and in March was reduced further as mine owners and workers agreed on a curtailment program. Value of construction contracts awarded declined in February, according to F. W. Dodge Corporation figures, owing principally to a further decrease in awards for publicly-financed work. Contracts for privately-financed residential building increased further, while awards for private nonresidential building remained at the low level of other recent months. EMPLOYMENT Three-month moving averages of F. W. Dodge Corporation data for value of contracts awarded in 37 Eastern States, adjusted for seasonal variation. Latest figures based on data for December and January and estimate for February. l'DICENT In February industrial activity continued at the January rate, without showing the usual rise, and retail trade increased less than seasonally. In the first three weeks of March, however, industrial activity and trade showed seasonal increases. Commodity prices continued to show little change. Investments in United States Government obligations by New York City banks increased considerably in February and the first half of March. In this period member banks reduced their holdings of Treasury notes and increased their bonds, reflecting in part exchanges of notes for new bond issues on March 15. Excess reserves of member banks continued somewhat below the high level of $3,600,000,000 reached at the end of January, fluctuating largely in accordance with changes in Treasury balances at the Federal Reserve banks. MONEY RATES 0 L._~____Jc__~~=-=----=--...=.1.--_:i::=~....i..--~ 0 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 For weeks ending January 6, 1934, through March 18, 1939. Average yields on United States Government securities declined to new record low levels from February 27 to March 10, following the announcement by the Treasury that no cash would be raised in the March financing. Yields rose slightly after the middle of March accompanying renewed tension in Europe. New issues of 91-day Treasury bills continued to sell on practically a no-yield basis during March. Other open-market rates continued unchanged.
@FedFRASER