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MONTHLY REVIEW Agricultural and Business Conditions TENTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT VoL. 23, No. J FEDERAL RESEllVE BANE. OF KANSAS CITY MARCH 31, 1938 Business in the Tenth Federal Reserve District FEBRUARY 1938 COMPARED WITH FEBRUARY 1937 % i 1 --------'----·: .Denver• COLO. % DECREASE 40 30 20 to to INCREASE 20 30 40 2 MOS. 1938 COMPARED WITH 2 MOS. 1937 BUSINESS INDICATORS % DECREASE 40 30 20 Financial •·--------KANSA -B-nk Debits_ !<ANS. _lfem. Bk. Loan,_ ·-·-------------,.-!•__ _ to 20 30 40 .F. R. Bk. Clearinp_ : •• % INCREASE to I _ lfem. Bk. Invest._ -Dem!lnd Deposits _ __ Life Ina. Sales_ Trade _ Wholesale Sales_ The most favorable aspect of the situation in this District is the improved moisture condition. Most sections in recent weeks have had good snows and rains and, while the subsoil is still dry, surface moisture has greatly improved the farm outlook. Other conditions are much less favorable. Retail sales are distinctly lower due somewhat to weather conditions. Lumber sales reflect the low state of the construction industry. Farm income and life insurance sales are lower. Grain marketings, while above last year, are much below normal. Livestock marketings are running much under a year ago. In the decline since last summer most livestock prices touched bottom in the forepart of February and since then have risen markedly. Bank deposits and investments are little changed, while loans tend downward. Payments by check are 11 % under a year ago and probably accurately reflect the extent of the business decline. -Retail Sales_ _.Dept. Store Sales_ _Lumber Sales_ llarkedng1 _ __Wheat_ _ _ _Corn _ _ _ _ _ oats _ _ ___ cattle_ _ _ __Calves _ _ _ __ _..Hoga _ _ ___ Sheep_ _ Production _ _Flour_ _ ·-·- ___cattle Slaughter._ __ Calf Slauirhter__ _Hog Slaughter__ I __Sheep Slaughter_ ...Crude Petroleum_ ...Bituminous CoaJ_ Zinc Ore Shipments • Lead Ore Shipments Con•truction _Total Awards_ __Rea. Awards_ ■ ·• ■ _Value of Permits_ _ Mi•cellaneou• 51 __Rainfall _ _ Cub Farm Income.• _Emplo:,menL____ Pa:, Rolla _ _ •For pre,lous month I ·-• - ■- I I ■ ■- I •• ■ I 2 REVIEW OF AGRICULTURAL AND BUSINESS CONDITIONS Member Bank Operation& Loans at reporting member banks in the Tenth:District continued to decline from the middle of February to the middle of March but at ·a much slower rat.e than . in recent months. Investments also ~ntinued ·to decline up to early March but hav~ since_increased, with the result that total loans and investments at · t he· mi'ddle· of March are little changed from a month ago although still about 8 per cent below a year ago. Loans are now only 3 per cent larger than at this time last year arid investments are 13 per cent smaller. Adjusted demand deposits have turned downward again and deposits of other banks with these reporting banks continued to decline from the middle of February to the middle of March, accompanied by a decrease in reserve balances carried with this bank. At the same time these reporting banks were drawing down their correspondent balances with other banks, reversing the trend of recent months. Adjusted demand deposits are 6 and interbank deposits 11 per cent lower than a year ago. Principal items of condition of 51 member banks: Loans and investments-totaL_......... Loans-totaL_···-·································· Coml., indust., agric....................... Open market paper·---········:··········· To security brokers and dealers.... Other to purchase or carry secur. Real estate loans.---······················· Loans to banks................................ All other loans·--·····"······················· Investments-total................................ U.S. Govt. direct obligations.-..... Oblig. guar. by U.S. Govt.·--······· Other securities................................ Reserve with F. R. Bank.___ ············· Balances with domestic banks·--······· Demand deposits-adjusted ................ Time deposits ...................................... U.S. Govt. deposits............................ Interbank deposits.............................. •Comparable figures not available. Change from Mar. 16 Feb. 16 Mar. 17 1938 1938 1937 (In thousandsof dollars) 647,855 +113 -52,462 256,301 -3, 701 +6,997 159,215 -3,952 • 18,571 -129 • 4,507 +735 -1,110 12,368 +13 • 20,940 -61 +2,108 468 -46 -978 40,232 -261 • 391,554 +3,814 -69,459 233,016 . +5,833 -30,137 46,082 +686 -3,580 112,456 -2,706 -25,742 162,721 -6,593 +6,997 226,685 -8,676 -6,546 473,209 -12,781 -24,946 144,925 +245 -1,397 18,189 +4,603 +11,046 338,118 -8,643 -41,925 Reserve Bank Operatiom Holdings of bills discounted for member banks· declined slightly further from the middle of February to the middle of March and are now very little larger than the small volume of discounts at this time last year. Industrial loans, which had shown a small increase during the preceding four weeks, again tend downward. Federal Reserve note· circulation of this bank is gradually rising from the post-holiday seasonal low in January. So far this year circulation has averaged about 4 per cent higher than a year ago. In the coITeSt>onding period of 1937, circulation had shown an increase of 14 per cent over 1936. The average for the entire year 1937 was about 9 per cent higher than in 1936. Principal items of condition of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and branches: Total reserves.................................. Bills discounted._............................. Bills purchased...........'. .................... Industrial advances........................ Commit. to make indust. adv....... U.S. Government securities.......... Total resources•..... ·-······················· F. R. notes in circulation. ____ ······· Member bank reserve deposits...... Change from Mar. 16 Feb. 16 Mar. 17 1938 1938 1937 -cfn thousa--iids ·of dollars) 288,291 -7,471 +15,277 571 -299 + 179 16 Zero -71 467 -21 -261 97 -2 -53 132,104 Zero · +5,503 464,483 -5,419 +16,884 165,938 +546 +7,139 238,770 -3,554 +5,862 Dollar volume of check collections in February was nearly 10 per cent smaller than a year earlier. In the first two weeks of March, check collections are about 16 per cent below _a year ago. Check collections through this bank and branches: ITEMS 1938 February·----··············· January·--····················· Two months·--············· 5,030 5,628 10,658 AMOUNT 1937 1938 thousands) 5,220 $ 753,695 5,422 902,975 10,642 1,656,670 -cm 1937 $ 833,489 944,733 1,778,222 Bank Debita Debits to individual accounts by banks in reporting centers of the District declined more than seasonally · during February and were about 11 per cent smaller than in February of last year. For the country as a whole the decline from a year ago measured about 26 per cent. Payments by check in thirty District cities: Albuquerque, N. Mex ......... Atchison, Kans.·--··············· Bartlesville, Okla ................ . Casper, Wyo.·-····················· Cheyenne, Wyo .................. . Colorado Springs, Colo...... . Denver, Colo._ .................... Emporia, Kans.·-················· Enid, Okla.·---····················· Fremont, Nebr.................... . Grand Junction, Colo........ . Guthrie, Okla....................... Hutchinson, Kans .............. . Independence, Kans ........... Joplin, Mo.·---····················· Kansas City, Kans ............ . Kansas City, Mo ................ . Lawrence, Kans ................... · Lincoln, Nebr.._.................. . Muskogee, Okla.................. . Oklahoma City, Okla ......... Okmulgee, Okla ................... Omaha, Nebr....................... Pittsburg, Kans ................ ,.. Pueblo, Colo........................ . Salina, Kans ........................ . St. Joseph, Mo .................... . Topeka, Kans.·-··················· Tulsa, Okla.. _....................... Wichita, Kans .................... . District, 30 cities·-··-··········· United States, 141 cities._. Change from Feb. 1938 Jan. 1938 Feb. 1937 (In thousands of dollars) 12,225 -1,802 -360 2,588 -401 -688 23,491 -3,841 +482 -1,662 · -41 4,676 6,197 -1,323 -560 10,241 -4,350 - 6,319 126,228 -21,999 -34,964 2,836 -348 +32 9,412 -1,919 +l,632 2,080 -319 . +4 2,961 - 548 -160 1,586 - 284 -248 9,790 - 1,095 -2,087 2,510 -610 -35 8,115 -1,607 · - 994 12,746 - 5,303 - 132 239,802 -72,191 -35,925 2,908 -812 - 491 22,210 - 4,677 -1,118 6,497 -1,781 - 576 90,449 -19,630 +29 2,346 - 266 - 118 114,939 - 26,985 -22,562 3,622 -651 -16 14,581 - 479 -1,544 7,701 - 631 -835 20,812 -8,172 -3,676 16,478 - 729 +278 121,730 -32,909 +435 39,288 -7,474 -3,407 940,945 25,538,081 -224,698 -6,535,418 -113,954 -8,988,214 , FEDERAL RESERVE · BANK OF RANSAS CITY 3 . ceding month but only sales of ~groceries showed an increase over last year. Wholesale sales and stocks reported by the Department Dollar volume of sales at reporting department stores in the District declined contraseasonally from January of Commerce for this District: to February, falling about 8 per cent below sales in SALES STOCKS Feb.'38 2 Mos.'38 Feb. 28, '38 February of last year. In the first three weeks of March, No.of comp.to comp.to compared to sales show a decrease of about 9 per cent from the Firms Feb.'37 2 Mos.'37 Jan.31,'38 Feb.28,'37 corresponding period of 1937. However, the fact that - ~ -----u,er cent increase or decrease) -7.6 -21.0 Auto. supplies...... 4 Easter fell on March 28 last year and is three weeks Drugs.................... 8 -1.2 -4.8 -0.2 -6.3 -26.2 -24.6 later this year is undoubtedly a factor in this decrease. Dry goods. ___ ....... 4 -6.2 -2.1 Electrical goods.... 7 -23.9 -10.0 -4.6 +2.3 Retail prices continued to decline through February Furniture ........ ·-··· 4 -10.6 and, according to the Fairchild Index, are now nearly Groceries..·-----··· 10 +4.7 +12.6 +4.8 +1.1 Hardware 3 per cent lower than a year ago. GeneraL:......... . 8 -26.4 -22.2 +4.1 +0.6 Stocks of merchandise increased seasonally during Industrial... ....... 8 -42.6 -47.3 +4,6 -0.1 Plbg. & htg .. _... 6 -14.1 -8.2 +0.8 +1.3 February but are about 8 per cent lower than a year +9.1 +4.8 Paper·---··············· 3 Zero -0.2 ago. Collections on open accounts averaged 42.5 per All other lines..... . 9 +2.2 +2.4 cent of receivables in February as compared with a TotaL................... 70 -10.4 -10.7 +0.7 +1.0 ratio of 43.0 per cent a year earlier, while installment col1ections averaged 14.3 and 14.0 per cent, respectively. Crops Department store sales and stocks in leading cities: Farmers' planting intentions as of March 1 indicate SALES STOCKS a further decrease in the acreage to be sown to crops Feb.'38 2 Mos.'38 Feb. 28,'38 in the District this spring. The principal decreases No. of comp.to comp.to compared to Stores Feb.'37 2 Mos.'37 Jan.31,'38 Feb.28,'37 are in prospective acreages for com and spring wheat, --(Per cent increase or decrease) partially offset by an increase in the intended acreage Denver.................. 4 -10.1 -6.6 +7.9 -2.3 for grain sorghums and by some increase in the acreage -8.5 +6.5 -18.4 Kansas CitY·-······· 4 -12.9 Oklahoma City.... 3 -0.8 +2.1 +16.9 -0.9 expected to be cut for hay. The acreage sown to winter Omaha.................. 3 -6.8 -4.3 +19.0 -8.2 wheat last fall was slightly larger than the record acreTulsa._................... 4 -2.5 +3.9 +20.6 -3.3 Wichita.................. 3 -9.7 -5.9 +16.1 · -10.3 · age of the preceding year. A rather heavy loss of winter Other cities..... _..... 19 -5.3 -2.6 +11.8 -6.6 · · wheat has occurred again this season in sections of Kansas -7.9 District.................. 40 -4.3 -7.6 +11.7 and Colorado because of drought. The decrease in RETAIL SALES spring plantings also reflects the present acute shortage February sales of independent retail stores in the of subsoil moisture generally and prospects for a repDistrict. were about 10 per cent lower than a year ago. etition of severe grasshopper damage. Indicated crop acreages in the seven states of the Decreases were general for all lines. With the decline of 5 per cent in January, total sales so far this year are District, reported by the Department of Agriculture: about 8 per cent lower than a year ago. Indicated Planted Planted Planted 1938 1937 1936 1936 Sales of independent retail stores reported by the (In thousands of acres) Department of Commerce: Com.................................... 18,878 19,712 23,860 22,262 Trade : DEPARTMENT STORE~ Feb. 1938 per cent Colo. Kans. AppareL ...................... . -1.8 ~ Country general.. ....... . -6.4 - 9.2 Department.................. -11.1 -4.4 Drug ............................. . -0.9 -1.7 Furn. and appliances -16.7 -18.1 -8.4 -9.3 Grocery···-•···················· Hardware ..................... . -14.9 +5.6 Lbr. and bldg. mtls ..... -4.1 +5.1 Motor vehicle ............. . -17.4 -19.1 change from Feb. 1937 Mo. Nebr. Okla. ~ --=s] +18.9 -13.8 -14.8 -26.1 -6.9 -11.1 +2.4 +1.2 -1.4 · -0.7 -14.4 -21.1 -13.0 -11.9 -9.2 -8.2 -5.0 -20.1 -7.9 -13.2 -7.6 -6.0 -27.2 -16.3 -9.2 Total............................. -11.0 -10.0 -8.7 -12.1 927 Spring wheat...................... Oats. ___ ······························· 6,714 Barley············-··················· 2,121 Tame hay•·-······················· 7,061 Grain -sorghums._............... 6,056 Dry beans·----··················· 601 White potatoes.................. 347 Sweet potatoes·-----·········· 32 Tobacco.............................. 7 Soybeans·---······················· 245 30 Peanuts. ___.......................... Cowpeas.............................. 205 81 Flaxseed............ ·-··············· • Acreage for harvest and harvested. 1,274 6,792 2,130 7,012 4,670 685 343 32 7 260 23 201 71 1,307 7,939 2,093 7,628 5,119 703 377 32 4 406 62 160 68 1,070 7,361 1,766 7,711 5,939 817 406 38 4 476 66 148 72 WHOLESALE SALES Since the middle of February, virtually the entire The value of February wholesale sales in this District District has received good snows and rains. February was about 2 per cent lower than in the preceding month precipitation was much above normal except in Wyoand 10 per cent lower than in February of last year. ming and Nebraska and additional moisture has been Wholesalers of electrical goods, furniture, industrial received in March. There was little runoff except in hardware, and paper had larger sales than in the pre- southeastern and east-central Oklahoma and the mois- REVIEW OF AGRICULTURAL AND BUSINESS CONDITIONS 4 Receipts of grain at five markets in the District: ture has soaked into the ground. While the moisture Oats Rye Barley Kafir Wheat Com cmne too late to help some of the wheat in parts of (In thousands ofbushels) western Kansas, eastern Colorado, and adjacent parts Hutchinson.____........ 1 4 765 of Oklahoma and New Mexico, the condition of winter Kansas City·-··········· 2,766 1,217 69 176 30 14 880 966 368 80 2 wheat has improved materially and is fair to good else- Omaha...................... 243 364 300 6 St. Joseph.__············· where in the District. However, wheat is being sus- Wichita._····----7 2 1 1 900 tained on only a few inches of topsoil moisture, sub- Feb. 1938.................. 6,644 2,645 846 111 17 69 soil moisture being extremely deficient, and the improve- Jan. 1938.................. 6,479 5,246 980 176 16 237 1937.................. 3,795 1,923 1,312 13 43 64 ment will be but temporary unless more good rains, 2Feb. Mos. 1938.............. 12,022 7,791 1,826 287 33 306 properly spaced, are received in April and May. 2 Mos. 1937.............. 7,702 4,231 2,614 27 101 161 Rainfall as reported by the Weather Bureau: Wheat prices tend downward, due principally to the improved moisture situation in North American wheat 2 Mos.1938 Feb.1938 Normal Total Normal Total areas and more favorable winter wheat prospects. ~inches) COLORADO Federal com loans up to 50 cents a bushel, together Denver.............................. .43 1.20 .93 .53 Leadville.__. 2.48 2.64 .82 1.42 with smaller market receipts, have had a sustaining .78 1.32 .70 .47 Pueblo·---········-··············· influence on com prices, which are fairly steady. Export .86 .37 .60 1.00 l.ALmar·--··························· Garnett. ___ ··-··.36 .90 .32 .19 demand for both wheat and com is dull. 4.63 2.41 3.53 Steamboat Springs.... ·-··· 1.53 Cash grain prices at Kansas City: KANSAS - Topeka.... .66 .68 2.06 3.66 1.64 1.12 2.60 .71 .62 .62 .31 2.45 2.80 1.49 1.70 2.03 1.15 1.18 .84 .78 Mar.22 Feb.28 Jan.31 Feb.27 1938 1938 1938 1937 No. 1 hd., dk. wheat, bu........... $ .89 ¾ $ .98 $ .99¼ $1.34 .66 1.21 No. 2 mixed com, bu................. .64½ .63 No. 2 white oats, bu................... .30½ .31½ .32 .51½ 1.04 No. 2 rye, bu............................... .64½ .71 .70 .66 .90 No. 2 barley, bu.·--····················· .64 .66 .92 2.09 No. 2 white kafir, cwt.·-············· .83 .87 1.67 1.75 1.68 1.68 2.79 6.85 2.95 Livestock .91 1.21 1.06 .77 .16 .26 .18 .40 .89 .96 .88 .80 .66 .63 .64 1.69 2.08 1.65 1.20 .40 .32 .26 .83 1.59 1.69 1.47 1.35 1.00 .92 .87 1.08 .63 1.02 .44 .22 .75 .64 .65 1.06 1.06 1.42 1.08 4.93 McAlester 10.21 Oklahoma City.............::: 3.66 Pauls ValleY----··············· 8.60 Hobart........·-··-··············· 2.53 Enid........ ·--·-··················· 2.37 Woodward........................ 1.92 1.66 2.20 1.11 1.60 .96 1.18 1.08 6.76 11.92 4.68 11.14 2.98 2.60 1.97 3.57 6.07 2.30 3.09 1.72 2.24 1.68 .64 .86 .63 .70 .65 .96 .77 1.84 1.06 1.61 1.19 1.66 Iola....... _.. _........ Concordia.___ . Salina......·-··-··················· Wichita Hays Dodge City...................... Elkhart.____ ······················· Goodland.....- .... .92 2.22 1.48 1.12 2.48 .65 .61 .62 .16 1.51 1.47 .88 1.08 1.25 .46 .82 .77 MISSOURI St. Joseph .. ~-City·--········-··-··· .90 3.48 2.94 3.84 NEBRASKA Omaha............·-······-··-··· Lincoln .............................. Norfolk._··-··············-······· Grand Island... McCook............................ North Platte.................... Bridgeport........................ Valentine.... .. NEW MExlco Clayton.___ ······················· Santa Fe ·-··-·················-- Farmington ...................... OKLAHOMA Tulsa.---··-··-··················· .48 .44 WYOMING Cheyenne.......................... Casper·---······· Lander............ Sheridan...... ·-··················· .28 .34 .14 .31 Grain Markednl Marketings of grain during February were in unusually small volume, reflecting in part the declining trend of prices. Receipts of wheat and com, while substantially larger than a year ago, were 37 and 52 per cent, respectively, below the February average of the past ten years. Marketings of oats, which were substantially smaller than a year ago, were 14 per cent below average. MARKETINGS Marketings of cattle in February were 16 per cent below the February average of the past ten years and little changed from marketings in the same month last year, while calf receipts approximated the average volume but fell somewhat below last year's high level of receipts. Hog marketings had shown a sizable increase over last year in January but dropped sharply in February, falling back to a level 60 per cent below average. Receipts of sheep were 22 per cent below average. Continued weakness in livestock prices up to the middle of February partly accounts for the small volume of marketings. Livestock receipts at six markets in the District: Cattle 27,068 70,609 26,711 Omaha.............................. 81,883 St. Joseph. ____ .................. 22,662 Wichita.--························· 18,392 Calves 3,611 13,366 11,166 7,997 4,974 2,956 Hogs 28,874 101,620 29,983 106,746 61,634 17,501 247,315 356,922 250,173 604,237 699,691 43,969 68,010 63,023 111,979 127,578 335,358 480,815 666,076 470,581 384,605 629,664 891,434 951,396 869,027 1,096,137 Denver.. Kansas City Oklahoma City................ Feb.1938.......................... Jan.1938 .......................... Feb.1937 2 Mos.1938...................... 2 Mos.1937...................... Sheep 166,331 106,483 6,980 106,511 91,211 14,299 PRICES Livestock prices, aided by smaller receipts, have rallied materially since about the middle of February. Beef steer prices showed the first consistent gain since the decline which started early last fall, recovering that part of the decline which had occurred since early FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY 5 January. Fed lamb prices advanced from a three- cient water for stock is assured during the early part year low in the middle of February to the highest level of the season which usually starts in April. in three months early in March and hogs, which had WOOL tended upward earlier this year, are the highest in four Wool production in 1937 showed a small increase months. Prices for stocker livestock are high in rela- in Colorado and Wyoming and a sizable increase in tion to fat livestock prices and are as high as or higher Missouri and Oklahoma. The increase in Colorado than at this time last year, while prices for feeder cattle was due to a larger number of sheep shorn, that in and slaughter livestock are much lower. New crop Missouri and Oklahoma to a heavier average weight spring lambs coming to market sold up to a top per fleece, and that in Wyoming to an increase in both of $10.00 a hundredweight as compared with $13.75 of these factors. In Kansas, Nebraska, and New Mexin March of last year. In the third week of March, ico, both the number of sheep shorn and the average livestock prices weakened somewhat, lamb prices show- weight per fleece declined so that production was lower. ing relatively the largest decline. Reports indicate that considerable wool of the 1937 Top prices of livestock at the Kansas City market: clip is still on hand in western states and that conMar. 22 Feb. Jan. Feb. Feb. Feb. tracting for the 1938 clip is very slow. Wool prices 1938 1938 1938 1937 1936 1935 the past season were relatively good for wool sold early --(In dollarsper hundredweight-)Beef steers ......................... . 9.50 9.25 10.00 13.00 11.25 13.25 last summer but have shown a steady decline since 8.50 8.25 8.25 8.35 8.25 9.00 then. The low price of wool is a depressing factor on Stocker cattle·--················· Feeder cattle..................... . 8.35 8.25 7.75 9.00 9.25 9.50 10.00 10.00 9.50 10.50 11.00 9.50 the sheep industry at the present time. Calves·-······························· Hogs................................... . 9.10 8.85 8.85 10.25 10.75 9.10 Department of Agriculture estimates of shorn wool 5.75 6.00 5.75 8.25 8.00 6.75 production: 8.25 8.35 8.35 10.65 10.75 8.90 ~~fambs·----·················.. WOOL PRODUCTION STOCKERS AND FEEDERS Shipments of stocker and feeder livestock to the country continued light in February although both cattle and hog shipments were substantially larger than a year ago. Shipments of cattle were 20, calves 25, hogs 45, and sheep 30 per cent below the February average of the past ten years. The ·recent upward trend for livestock prices is encouraging to feeders who have been facing financial losses on this season's feeding operations. Stocker and feeder shipments from four markets: Denver.......................................... Kansas City·--····························· Omaha.......................................... St. Joseph. .._................................. Feb. 1938-.................................... Cattle Calves 2,041 1,392 732 Hogs ~ 2,318 1,035 1,459 Sheep 12,364 8,612 11,400 5,263 22,417 11,240 3,020 43,148 65,565 36,350 108,713 106,489 4,866 10,620 4,969 15,486 15,733 4,878 3,364 1,983 8,242 5,142 37,639 43,141 40,382 80,780 98,195 6J'7i ---W Colorado.............. Kansas................ Missouri.............. Nebraska............ New Mexico·--··· Oklahoma·--······· Wyoming............ SHEEP SHORN 1937 1936 1935 1937 1936 (In thousands of pounds) (In thousandsof 13,243 13,062 12,216 1,615 1,555 3,004 3,045 3,962 409 412 8,673 7,989 8,869 1,245 1,252 2,382 2,776 3,029 320 363 15,394 15,904 16,030 2,231 2,240 1,556 1,424 1,870 183 185 30,361 29,952 30,153 3,130 3,120 1935 head) 1,527 531 1,242 400 2,290 220 3,174 Seven states........ 74,613 74,152 76,129 9,133 9,127 9,384 United States·--· 366,344 360,327 364,663 45,997 45,663 45,497 Farm Income January receipts from the sale of crops in the seven states of this District were about 17 per cent lower and receipts from the sale of livestock and livestock products about 5 per cent lower than a year ago. Total income, including Government payments which were only little more t han a third what they were in January of last year, showed a decline of 13 per cent. However, farm income in Wyoming was slightly higher as a result 2 Mos. 1938.................................. of larger receipts from meat animals, and in Oklahoma 2 Mos. 1937.................................. the decline was small because of larger marketings of RANGES AND PASTURF.S cotton. Smaller receipts from wheat and cattle account Although subsoil moisture continues deficient gener- for a rather marked decline in Nebraska and Kansas. ally and range and pasture feeds are only poor to fair Income estimates of the Department of Agriculture: over eastern Colorado and the western parts of Nebraska, Change from Kansas, and Oklahoma, prospects for spring grass are Jan. 1938 Dec. 1937 Jan. 1937 better than a year ago as a result of recent moisture. (In thousands of dollars) 8,106 - 3,816 -1,181 Winter wheat is greening rapidly and will furnish needed Colorado._ .. :..................... . 20,714 - 5,207 -4,486 ............................. . pasturage in areas where grass and other feeds are short. Kansas 17,220 - 2,910 -1,297 Missouri ........................... . 16,728 - 1,782 - 4,305 Pasture leasing preparatory to the spring movement Nebraska......................... . -583 3,426 - 2,629 Mexico·--················· of southwestern_ grass cattle into the Osage pastures New 8,840 - 2,091 -185 Oklahoma. __ ····················· 2,112 -2,222 +226 of Oklahoma and Blue Stem pastures of Kansas has Wyoming......................... . been very limited. Moisture conditions in these graz- Seven states...................... - 11,811 -20,657 77,146 -,.61,000 -63,000 620,000 ing areas are favorable and reports indicate .that suffi- United States·--··············· Jan. 1938...................................... Feb. 1937...................................... 6 REVIEW OF AGRICULTURAL AND BUSINESS CONDITIONS Flour production reported by the N orthwestem Miller: Meat Packing The slaughter of cattle, calves, and hogs declined seasonally in February, while sheep slaughter increased slightly. Cattle and sheep slaughter were little changed from that a year ago but calf and hog slaughter were sharply lower. However, calf slaughter last year was at an unusually high level, and current slaughter is about equal to the average of the past ten years. Cattle slaughter was 7, hogs 57, and sheep 14 per cent below the February ten-year average. Packers' purchases at six markets in the District: Cattle Denver.......................... Kansas City.................. Oklahoma City............ Omaha.......................... St. Joseph. __ ················· Wichita._....................... 15,163 Feb. 1938...................... Jan. 1938...................... Feb.1937...................... 2 Mos.1938 .................. 2 Mos.1937 .................. 156,732 208,149 160,628 363,881 359,307 42,882 16,414 63,741 17,390 10,152 Calves 2,806 10,612 7,184 6,106 4,087 3,260 Hogs 22,668 91,386 25,016 88,317 39,074 16,326 Sheep 38,203 89,196 6,989 80,699 83,219 12,830 34,054 281,785 496,974 337,266 777,769 762,959 310,136 298,236 312,201 608,372 666,383 44,643 44,651 78,697 103,320 Cold Storage Holdings After allowing for usual seasonal changes, United States cold storage holdings generally tended to increase in February. However, March 1 stocks of beef were still 39, pork 10, lamb 15, poultry 7, miscellaneous meats 3, and lard 7 per cent below the average of the past five years. Stocks of eggs and cheese continue much above average and holdings of butter are now high as a result of the smallest February decline since 1933. United States cold storage holdings: Mar. 1 Beef, lbs.·-··-································· Pork, lbs ...................................... . Lamb and mutton, lbs .............. . Poultry, lbs.·-······························· Miscellaneous meats, lbs.:.·--····· Lard, lbs....................................... Eggs, shell, cases._•...•.................. Eggs, frozen (case equiv.) .......... Butter, creamery, lbs ................. Cheese, all varieties, lbs ............. Feb. 1 Mar. 1 Mar. 1 1938 1938 1937 6-Yr.Av. --(In thousands ofunitsr-66,874 59,369 167,438 93,181 682,370 554,028 775,688 647,396 3,496 3,294 9,807 4,122 100,518 116,105 157,868 108,176 77,172 81,179 126,233 79,409 116,856 99,318 202,476 125,125 281 314 322 124 2,527 2,731 983 1,142 20,930 31,211 20,678 17,088 85,655 93,497 93,114 73,275 Flour Milling Operations at southwestern flour mills were maintained in February :at '. about !the January level but continue below a year ago. February output was 6 per cent smaller than last year and production for the first two months of 1938 shows a decline of 9 per cent from that in the corresponding period of 1937. Flour sales continued in small volume up to the second week of March when sales increased somewhat and business was the best in several months. Flour stocks in bakers' and jobbers' hands are low and prices, which had advanced in the forepart of February, have since declined to the lowest level so far this year. Change from Jan. 1938 Feb. 1937 (In barrels) +1,000 +49,00() 567,000 -9,000 -22,000 143,000 -14,000 -19,000 148,000 -66,000 -118,000 929,000 Feb. 1938 Kansas City............................... . Salina.......................................... Wichita._..................................... Other cities·--····························· Southwest.__............................... 1,787,000 -88,000 -110,000 United States*............................ 4,865,000 -190,000 -9,000 *Represents about 60 per cent of total output in United States. Petroleum A further decline of 6 per cent in daily average crude oil production in this District during February brought output to a level about 12 per cent under that a year ago although still 11 per cent above the February average of the past ten years. The declining trend in crude oil production conforms to that in refinery operations which in Oklahoma and Kansas have been reduced more than 21 per cent since last September and in ·March are at the lowest level in two years. Oil production reported by the American Petroleum Institute and the Bureau of Mines: February 1938 Gross D. Av. January 1938 February 1937 Gross D. Av. Gross D. Av. ----U-n thousan'ds of barrels-)4,3 4.1 114 3.7 120 188.7 176.4 6,680 183.3 5,282 98.8 105.5 3,256 105.0 2,767 621.7 516.2 17,409 561.6 17,406 46.4 1,465 47.3 1,392 49.7 Colo............... Kans.·- -········· N. Mex......... Okla............... Wyo............... 116 4,938 2,954 14,456 1,298 6 States·--····· U.S............... 23,761 848.6 27,924 900.9 93,378 3,334.9 106,007 3,419.6 26,967 963.2 93,173 3,327.6 As a result of restricted refinery operations, midcontinent gasoline stocks are smaller than a year ago in marked contrast with an increase of more than 25 per cent in the remainder of the country, national stocks being the largest of record. Stocks of crude petroleum continued downward and in March are only 6 per cent larger than a year ago. Coal Production of bituminous coal showed a further seasonal decline in February. As in January, output was a third less than a year ago, the decline for the first two months of the year measuring 33 per cent. Coal output estimated from reports of the National Bituminous Coal Commission: Feb. 1938 Colorado...-........................... Kansas and Missouri.. ........ New Mexico..·-····················· Oklahoma._........................... Wyoming............................. . 510,000 613,000 109,000 134,000 368,000 Six states.............................. 1,734,000 United States·--··················· 27,000,000 Change Jan. 1938 (In tons) -37,000 -77,000 -5,000 -63,000 -83,000 -256,000 -3,880,000 from Feb. 1937 - 311,000 - 174,000 -81,000 -67,000 -276,000 -899,000 -15,110,000 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY Zinc and Lead February shipments of zinc from the Tri-State district were sharply lower than a year ago while lead shipments showed little change from last year. Output of both zinc and lead ore continues to increase from recent low levels. Shipments estimated from Joplin News-Herald reports: ZINC ORE Tons Value LEAD ORE Tons Value ~~~~~: ~·:~: : : : : : : : : : : : : 1~:i~: $3:g;~:~ 2,i~ $1:~:~:~ Oklahoma.............................. 16,737 471,242 2,002 102,686 Feb. 1938.............................. Jan. 1938.............................. Feb. 1937.............................. 2 Mos. 1938._....................... 2 Mos. 193L....................... 33,345 $ 936,865 32,120 935,893 43,837 1,734,619 65,465 1,872,758 75,746 2,842,250 5,483 3,580 5,398 9,063 8,223 $276,713 190,286 407,438 466,999 603,142 Following a further decline of about $2 a ton in the price of zinc and $6 a ton in the price of lead in the second week of February, prices have been unchanged. The price of zinc concentrates is the lowest since September, 1935, and that of lead the lowest since October, 1936. Employment and Pay Rolls ~~i:ri.~··:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::.:... Nebraska .................................................. New Mexico·--········································· Oklahoma................................................. . Wyoming .................................................. in February although falling about 5 per cent short of a year ago. Value of January permits had shown an increase of 8 per cent over last year so that the total so far this year is little changed from a year ago. Building permits issued by eighteen District cities: Albuquerque, N. Mex ..... Cheyenne, Wyo .............. . Colorado Springs, Colo... Denver, Colo.................. . Hutchinson, Kans .......... . Joplin, Mo.·-··-················· Kansas City, Kans ......... Kansas City, Mo ............ . Lincoln, Nebr ................... Oklahoma City, Okla..... . Omaha, Nebr .................. . Pueblo, Colo.._................. Salina, Kans.................... . Shawnee, Okla ................ . St. Joseph, Mo ................ . Topeka, Kans .................. . Tulsa, Okla ...................... . Wichita, Kans ................ . PERMrrs ESTIMATED COST 1938 1937 1938 1937 ~ 67 $ 124,000 $ 120,000 18 34 66,000 43,000 33 38 15,000 26,000 347 354 424,000 709,000 30 37 17,000 39,000 17 8 23,000 10,000 10 690,000 22,000 18 81 133 88,000 422,000 70 58 70,000 55,000 103 167 764,000 376,000 42 38 r46,ooo 99,ooo 37 46 16,000 155,000 10 8 15,000 17,000 10 11 7,000 7,000 16 3 4,000 3,000 40 23 r4s,ooo 39,ooo 68 99 148,000 524,000 135 104 170,000 220,000 February·---····················· January·---······················· Two months·---··············· 1,133 1,114 2,247 1,238 $2,735,000 $2,886,000 843 1,817,000 1,680,000 2,081 4,552,000 4,566,000 Lumber Employment and pay rolls in the District showed a further small decline from the middle of January to . the middle of February. Employment was about 7 and pay rolls 6 per cent lower than a year ago. Preliminary figures of the Department of Labor: Colorado -................................................. 7 February 1938 per cent change from January 1938 Employment Pay Rolls -3.9 -2.6 -2.4 -3.6 +0.6 +1.7 -2.1 - 2.1 - 1.0 +0.6 -2.5 - 2.2 - 2.3 +0.5 Building Awards for residential construction increased further during February and awards for other types of building continued to decline. Construction activity in the District remains much below a year ago, the decline for February measuring 40 and for the first two months of the year 31 per cent . Construction figures of the F. W. Dodge Corporation: Following a sizable increase during January, retail lumber sales declined in February. Board feet sales for February were about 15 and for the first two months of the year about 9 per cent smaller than in the corresponding periods of last year. Collections on amounts outstanding averaged 29.3 per cent in February, 33.0 per cent in January, and 35.4 per cent a year ago. Lumber trade at 155 retail yards in the District: Sales of lumber, board feet ............... . Sales of all materials, dollars·--········· Stocks of lumber, board feeL ........... Outstandings, dollars .......................... February 1938 per cent change from January 1938 February 1937 - 15.5 - 16.3 - 15.5 - 7.4 +2.8 - 4.6 -2.8 +17.4 Life Insurance February life insurance sales in the District were about 5 per cent smaller than last year and sales for the first two months of the year show a decrease of 3 per cent from a year ago. The Life Insurance Sales Research Bureau report: 37 EASTERN STATES Residential Total Residential Total (In thousands of dollars) Feb. 1938.............. 1,694 5,342 40,023 119,038 Jan. 1938.............. 1,474 7,631 36,207 195,472 Feb. 1937 .............. 2,564 8,966 63,004 188,533 2 Mos. 1938.......... 3,168 12,973 76,230 314,610 18,660 141,410 431,360 2 Mos. 1937.......... 6,050 Colorado....................................... . Kansas ......................................... . Missouri. ...................................... . Nebraska ..................................... . New Mexico·--····························· Oklahoma._.................................. . Wyoming ..................................... . The value of building permits issued in reporting District cities showed a substantial further increase Seven states.................................. United States..·-··························· TENTH DISTRICT Change from Feb. 1938 Jan. 1938 Feb. 1937 (In thousands of dollars) 4,790 - 469 -329 6,101 - 390 - 64 16,384 - 30 -741 4,392 - 426 -1,256 +60 1,168 +344 8,716 +176 +198 782 +108 -202 42,332 488,703 - 687 -5,112 - 2,334 - 88,387 8 REVIEW OF AGRICULTURAL AND BUSINESS CONDITIONS NATIONAL SUMMARY OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS By the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION • c1tc(NT P(IIC(H T 140 140 130 130 120 ) 20 110 110 100 100 90 90 Volume of manufacturing production showed little change from January to February, while output of minerals declined further. Awards for residential building mcreased somewhat in February and rose considerably in the first half of March. PRODUCTION 80 80 70 7t 60 1934 1935 1936 1937 " 1938 Index of physica l volume of produ ction , a djus t ed for seasona l v a r iatio n, 19 23- 1925 averag e 100. By months, J a nu a ry, 19 34, through Februa ry, 1938. = FREIGHT ,u,cNT CARLOADING$ · -- 110 - I00 100 90 90 I'./\ ~r !/\.A/ 80 ro V r--...... . T\ \ 80 ro 40 40 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 Index of t ota l load in g s of reve nue fr eigh t, a djusted for s eas ona l va r iation, 1923-1925 averag e 100. By months, J a nua ry, 193 4, through F eb ru a ry, 193 8. = 80 70 COMMODITY PRICES 110 100 90 80 70 ~ -- - _/ 90 ~- ~ ~ 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 Index compiled by the Unite d States Bu r eau of L a bor Sta t istics, 19 26 100. By weeks, 1934, through March 19, 193 8. = BILLIONS Of DOI. URS 4 The general level of wholesale commodity prices, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics index, showed little change from the middle of February to the third week of March. There were seasonal increases in prices of livestock and meats, while prices of such basic commodities as wheat, cotton, rubber, zinc, and bituminous coal declined. BANK CREDIT EXCESS RESERVES OF MEMBER BANKS PILllC"ifS Of DOLLARS Factory employment and pay rolls increased by somewhat less than the usual seasonal amount between the middle of January and the middle of February. The Board's seasonally adjusted index of factory employment was at 83 per cent of the 1923-1925 average in February as compared with 84 in January. In the durable goods industries decreases were general in February, though not so large as in preceding months. Employment in nondurable goods industries increased somewhat following a period of rapid decline. Employment in trade, at mines, on the railroads, and in the construction and public-utility industries decreased somewhat from the January level. Value of department store sales, as measured by the Board's seasonally adjusted index, declined from 90 per cent of the 1923-1925 average in January to 88 per cent in February, and in the first three weeks of March there was a further decrease. Sales at variety stores and mail-order houses in February showed somewhat less than the usual seasonal increase. Freight carloadings decreased further in February, reflecting chiefly reduced shipments of coal and grain, and showed a seasonal increase in the first two weeks of March. The current level of carloadings is about 25 per cent less than a year ago. , ucoT 100 EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION WHOLESALE PRICES ' (llt C(,. T 11 0 The Board's seasonally adjusted index of industrial production, which includes both manufacturing and mining, was 79 per cent of the 1923-1925 average in February as compared with 80 per cent in January. The decline in the total index was accounted for chiefly by a reduction in output of minerals, particularly of crude petroleum. Steel ingot production showed about the usual seasonal increase and averaged 32 per cent of capacity in February. Automobile production decreased slightly further, and output of plate glass continued to decline. Lumber production rose seasonally. In the first three weeks of March activity at steel mills and automobile factories was at about the same average rate as in February. In the nondurable goods industries there were moderate increases in output in February at textile mills and shoe factories, where production has recently been at low levels, while at meat-packing establishments activity declined. Value of construction contracts awarded, as reported by the F. W. Dodge Corporation, showed a sharp decline from January to February, reflecting chiefly a marked reduction in awards for publicly-financed projects. Contracts for residential building increased moderately. In the first half of March there was a considerable further increase reported for residential building and awards for other construction also increased. 4 Excess reserves of member banks increased during the first three weeks of March to over $1,500,000,000, the highest level since last April. The bulk of the increase occurred at New York City banks, which in the third week of the month held over $700,000,000 of excess reserves. During February and the first half of March, there was little net change in deposits and in total loans and investments at reporting member banks in 101 leading cities. Holdings of United States Government obligations declined at banks in New York but increased in Chicago. Commercial loans, which had decreased sharply in the four preceding months, showed a further moderate decline. MONEY RATES AND BOND YIELDS 0 1934 1935 1936 ===---~ 19 38 1937 Wednesda y figures of es ti m a t ed excess r e serves for all m emb e r b a nks a nd for s elected New York City b a nks, J a nu a ry 3, 1934, through March 16, 1938. 0 Conditions in the short-term money market continued easy in March. Rates on Treasury bills were slightly lower and prime commercial paper was quoted at a range of from ¾' to 1 per cent as against the flat 1 per cent rate which had prevailed since a year ago. Yields on Treasury bonds and notes, after declining for the past six months, advanced slightly around the middle of March. Yields on corporate bonds! also advanced in March, reflecting principally declines in prices of railroad bonds.
@FedFRASER