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MONTHLY
Agricultural and Business Conditions
TENTH FEDERAL RESER VE DISTRICT
VOL.
23,
12
0.
DECEMBER
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY
31, 1938
Business in the Tenth Federal Reserve District
NOVEMBER 1938
COMPARED WITH NOVEMBER
i
Denver•
COLO.
~----- ---:
KANSA
:
-·-
I
I
10 20
40 30 20 10
--.. -----L.--.•:
KANS.
·--·-··-··-··----r-!---
30 40
l'inancial
_____Bank Debita ____
I
F. R. Bk. Clearings.
....Mem. Bk. Loans_
I
•
.. Mem. Bk. Invest•._
I
. Demand Deposits ...
___Life Ins. Sales ____
Trade
I
Wholesale sales are running
above a year ago and retail sales
are closing the gap that has existed all year.
Total construction contracts
are 30 %, residential contracts are
57%, and building permits nearly
80 % above last year. Lumber
sales are 27% higher.
Production of crude petroleum
is 19 % below last year. Ore shipments are improving. Slaughter
of hogs and sheep is higher than
a year ago while that of cattle and
calves is much lower.
Farm income is 15 % under last
year. The condition of winter
wheat deteriorated markedly in
the last month, but recent moisture has improved somewhat the
outlook. The rise in the price of
wheat and corn has leveled off.
Livestock prices remain firm.
Bank deposits are above a year
ago, but bank investments are
3 % and bank loans 12 % lower.
Payments by check are 9 % and
sales of life insurance nearly 8%
below last year.
BUSINESS
INDICATORS
% INCREASE
% DECREASE
!
1937
__Wholesale Salen .....
______ Retail Sales .. ____
I
I
. Dept. Store Sales._
_____Lumber Sales .._ .
11 MOS. 1938
COMPARED WITH 11 MOS. 1937
% INCREASE
% DECREASE
40 30 20
·-··-·••-
10 20 30 40
10
■
I
■
Marketings
______Wheat ______
----•••
--•
---·
___
_______Cattle ___________
_____ Calvea _______
_______Hoga _________
_______Sheep._______
Production
______Flour_ _
I
■
__ Cattle Slaughter ...
__ Calf Slaughter __
___ Hog Slaughter ___
___ Sheep Slaughter....
.. Crude Petroleum._
__Bituminous CoaL
I
··■
■
corn _ _
------·Oats ________
·•
Zinc Ore Shipments
Lead Ore Shipments
Conslr11ction
_
Total Awards __
57
___ Ree. Awards ___
19
_ Value of Permits __
M i•cellaneou,
_ ___ Rainfall._______
Cuh Farm Income.•
_
•
I
Employment__
______ Pay Roll, ___
•For previous month
•••
---■
I
■
■
I
I
I
■
.
2
REVIEW OF AGRICULTURAL AND BUSINESS CONDITIONS
Principal items of condition of the Federal Reserve
·
Bank
of Kansas City and branches:
Loans at reporting member banks in the Tenth
Change from
District rose slightly further from the middle of NoDec.14
Nov. 16
Dec.15
1938
1938
1937
vember to the middle of December, reflecting chiefly
·( In thousands of dollars) ·
further increases in commercial and "all other" loans. Total reserves ................. :................ 316,412
-8,434 +14,778
Holdings of open market paper continued to decline, Bills discounted...............................
682
-369
-291
Bills purchased.................... ............
16
Zero
-64
dropping nearly q per cent during the four-week Industrial
advances........................
269
-124
-196
period. Investments, which at the middle of Novem- Commit. to make indust. adv........
552
-24
+440
Government securities......... 113,249
Zero -12,014
ber had been at the highest point so far this year, U.S.
Total resources ................................ 475,822 -10,107
+2,462
declined ~lightly during the following four weeks, a F. R. notes in circulation.............. ~ 170,264 + 1,496 + 1,763
sizeable decrease in holdings of Government direct Member bank reserve deposits ...... 228,738 -1,334 -8,449
obligations being offset in part by further increases
Dollar volume of check collections declined less than
in holdings of obligations guaranteed by the Govern- seasonally during November. Dollar volume in Noment and holdings of other securities. Loans at the vember was only 3 per cent lower than a year ago as
middle of December are about 9 and investments 2 per compared with a decline of 11 per cent for the year.
cent smaller than a year ago.
Check collections through this bank and branches:
Adjusted demand deposits increased slightly from
ITEMS
AMOUNT
1938
1937
1938
1937
the middle of November to the middle of December
(In thousands)
but deposits due to other banks declined and there was November.............. 5,895 5,845
$ 921,143 $ 948,665
a further decrease in correspondent balances due from October.................. 6,170 6,068
965,412
1,020,277
9,814,018
11,060,450
other banks. Reserve balances carried at this bank 11 Months....... ....... 64,348 65,801
have shown little change in recent weeks. Adjusted Bank Debits
demand deposits are about 2 per cent larger than a
Debits to individual accounts by banks in reporting
year ago, deposits due to other banks are 6 per cent
larger, and balances due from other banks are 36 per centers of the District declined by considerably less
than the usual seasonal amount during November.
cent greater.
Volume of payments by check in November was 9 and
Principal items of condition of 51 member banks:
in the first eleven months of the year 13 per cent smalChange from
Dec. 14 Nov. 16
Dec. 15 ler than in the corresponding periods in 1937.
1938
1938
1937
Payments by check in thirty District cities:
(In thousands of dollars)
Member Bank Operations
Loans and investments-total.. ..
Loans-total. .................................. .
Coml., indust., and agric ........ .
Open market paper...................
To security broker s and dlers ...
Other to purch. or carry secur..
Real estate loans ...................... .
Loans to banks......................... .
All other loans .......................... .
Investments-total.........................
U.S. Govt. direct obligations...
Oblig. guar. by U.S. Govt ........ .
Other securities......................... .
Reserve with F. R. Bank. .............
Balances with domestic bank s ...
Demand deposits-adjusted .. ..... ..
Time deposits ................................. .
U. S. Govt. deposits ........................
Interbank deposits ........................ .
649,374 -3,566 - 35,082
254,289 +2,014 -25,461
154,293 +l,666 -21,430
16,766 -1,032
-6,204
4,211
+54
+4
11,820
- 27
-1,222
22,648
+32
+2,200
643
-130
-301
43,908 +1,451
+1,492
395,085 -5,580
-9,621
214,153 -7,962 - 31,090
51,608 +1,116
+6,334
129,324 +1,266 + 15,135
158,005
-880
-5,223
284,840 -4,237 +75,699
497,876 +5,655
+7,211
141,833 -1,672
-3,114
20,656
+161
+7,048
366,942 -11,721 +20,68~
Reserve Bank Operations
Note circulation of this bank has increased further,
rising to a new high level of 171 million dollars in the
first week of December as compared with the previous
record last year of about 170 million in the third week
of December, when the seasonal demand for currency
for Christmas shopping is normally the heaviest.
Volume of discounts is seasonally lower than at the
middle of November, due in part to the return flow of
funds from sugar beet areas.
Albuquerque, N. Mex ....
Atchison, Kans ............... .
Bartlesville, Okla............
Casper, Wyo ....................
Cheyenne, Wyo ................
Colorado Springs, Colo ..
Denver, Colo ................... .
Emporia, Kans ................
Enid, Okla ........................
Fremont, Nebr .................
Grand Junction, Colo ..... .
Guthrie, Okla.................. .
Hutchinson, Kans ..........
Independence, Kans ....... .
Joplin, Mo ....................... .
Kansas City, Kans ......... .
Kansas City, Mo ..............
Lawrence, Kans ...............
Lincoln, Nebr...................
Muskogee, Okla ...............
Oklahoma City, Okla ......
Okmulgee, Okla ...............
Omaha, Nebr ....................
Pittsburg, Kans .............. .
Pueblo, Colo .....................
Salina, Kans ....................,
St. Joseph, Mo ................
Topeka, Kans .................. .
Tulsa, Okla.......................
Wichita, Kans ..................
J
J
J
Change from
Nov. 1938
Oct. 1938
Nov. 1937
(In thousands of dollars)
16,588
+1,179
-179
2,830
-183
-416
27,310
-3,033
-2,597
6,717
8,713
17,009
157,854
3,330
9,222
2,281
3,794
1,708
12,400
2,625
8,989
15,055
269,765
- 3,096
27,640
7,696
95,519
2,485
142,289
3,466
24,919
8,287
23,863
15,384
125,005
39,283
-1,402
-780
+2,506
-13,946
-186
- 1,221
-101
-142
-106
+2,112
+ 111
-603
+337
- 24,153
-629
-1,341
-1,611
-3,539
-280
-2,776
-256
+4,442
+265
-3,236
-2,831
-3,894
-5,639
-728
-374
-213
- 4,605
+4
-1,361
-79
-50
-216
-1,173
+2
-732
+2,073
-41,485
-314
-639
-800
- 14,554
-259
-2,276
-500
-2,576
-331
-1,1.93
+1,599
-27,441
-4,553
District, 30 cities............. 1,085,122
United States, 141 cities 29,405,804
-60,936
-105,866
-3,829,510 · -2,197,061
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY
Wholesale sales and stocks reported by the Department of Commerce for this District:
Trade
RETAIL SALES
Department store sales declined less than seasonally
during November and dollar volume was only 2 per
cent lower than a year ago as compared with a decrease
of 6 per cent for the first eleven months of the year.
In the first three weeks of December, sales were 1 per
cent under last year. Retail prices, according to the
Fairchild Index, are about 6 per cent under a year ago.
Stocks of merchandise increased more than seasonally
during November and are now only 7½ per cent'lower
than at this time last year. Collections on open accounts averaged 46.8 per cent in November as compared with 47.5 per cent last year, while installment
collections averaged 15.1 and 15.4 per cent, respectively.
Department store sales and stocks in leading cities:
SALES
No. of
Stores
-Denver................ ,. 4
Kansas City........ 4
Oklahoma City... 3
Omaha................. 3
Tulsa.................... 3
Wichita.............. ~ 3
Other cities......... 19
District................ 39
STOCKS
Nov.'38 11 Mos.'38
Nov. 30, '38
comp.to comp. to
compared to
Nov.'37 11 Mos.'37 Oct.31,'38 Nov.30,'37
~ r cent increase or decrease)
-4.8
-6.6
+6.7
-6.5
+3.6 ·
-8.0
+3.0
-16.3
+1.5
-1.0
+7.5
+2.3
-5.9
-2.6
-0.5
Zero
-3.4
-2.9
-3.6
-10.3
-3.0
-9.4
+0.1
-10.8
-2.2
-6.2
+4.2
-7.5
Total sales of independent retail stores in November
were very little below a year ago but in the first eleven
months of the year they were 11 per cent less.
Sales of independent retail stores reported by the
Department of Commerce:
Nov.1938 per cent change from Nov.1937
Colo. Kans.
Mo. Nebr. Okla. Wyo.
Apparel. ............... .
-4.2 -10.1
.- 4.4 -7.6 -4.1
Country general...
+1.4 -8.6 -6.4 ..:..8.3 -9.o -9.8
Department......... .
+1.3 -1.3 +2.6 -5.8 +o.4 -7.5
Drug...................... . -5.2 -3.6 +1.2 -1.3 +o.5 -15.6
Furn ..& applncs ... . -13.0 -5.7 -5.8 -15.8 -9.7 -26.8
Grocery..................
-7.o +o.3 -7.2 -3.7 -4.9 -12.1
Hardware............. .
-5.8 -18.5 +3.3 -6.1 -3.5 -20.5
Lbr.& bldg.mtls ....
-1.3 +1.2 +3.5 -10.3 +14.3 -5.9
Motor vehicle ........
+7.2 +3.2 +21.6 . +2.0 +31.6 -5.5
+o.o
Total......................
-3.1
- 3.9
+1.8
3
-5.0
SALES
No. of
Firms
-Auto. supplies.... 5
Clothing.............. 3
Drugs................. ~ 12
Dry goods........... 6
Electricalgoods.. 6
Farm products... 3
Furniture............ 4
Groceries ............. 42
Hardware-total.. (18)
General............ 6
Industrial........ 7
Plbg. & htg..... 5
Jwlry.& opt.gds. 3
Machinery........... 3
Paper................... 4
Tobacco & prod.. 5
All other lines.... 11
Total... ................. 125
WHOLESALE SALES
+2.5
-8.6
-1.9
-10.0
Crops
The acreage seeded to winter wheat in this District
in the fall of 1938 was about 20 per cent smaller than
the areas sown in either of the two preceding years,
reflecting the lower prices received for the 1938 wheat
crop, the Agricultural Adjustment program, and to
some extent a dry topsoil at seeding time although
subsoil moisture reser~es are substantially better
than a year ago. The acreage is still somewhat above
the average from 1926 to 1935 in Kansas and Nebraska where recent summer droughts have caused a shift
from corn to winter wheat and in Colorado and Wyoming where the acreage is not only above average but
also larger than last year as a result of the unusually
good yields harvested in 1938. The condition of winter wheat is rather poor in :({ansas and Oklahoma.
Early seeded wheat shows the effect of prolonged dry
weather and much late seeded wheat ·h as not yet germinated.
Department of Agriculture estimates of winter
wheat acreage and condition:
FALL SEEDED ACREAGE
-0.5 -10.9
· The value ofNovember wholesale sales was slightly
aboye a year ago although wholesale pi-foes are still
so~ewhat lower than a year .earlier. November was
the first month this year that sales exceeded those in
the corresponding month last year, total sales for the
fir.st eleven months of 1938 .showing .a decrease of 9
per cent from 1937. In addition to drugs, sales of dry
go(?ds, groceries, and hardware show recent improven1ent .over·last year. Wholesale. stocks are about 10
p,ei-''. cent under .a·.year. ago. .Q:9llectfons in ,November .
averaged 71.3 per cenfagainst 71.0 per cent last year.
STOCKS
Nov.'38 11 Mos.'38
Nov. 30, '38
comp.to comp. to
compared to
Nov.'37 11 Mos.'37 Oct.31,'38 Nov.30,'37
~ r cent increase or decrease)
-15.4
-7.6
-4.7
-6.1
-35.7
+9.2
+2.6
-3.5
-2.4
+5.2
-15.5
-11.3
-30.5
-25.0
-12.5
-11.9
-4.8
-15.9
+6.3
-7.1
-7.8
+1.6
+2.5
-13.7
-2.8
-3.8
-0.7
-14.3
-3.7
-2.5
+ 14.3
-6.3
-10.4
+2.2
Zero
-21.2
-12.5
-14.4
-3.3
-12.6
-26.6
+0.6
-7.5
-8.3
-8.3
-21.8
-10.5
+o.6
1938
Colo ........ 1,436
Kans ....... 13,885
Mo .......... 1,761
Nebr ....... 3,824
N.Mex ...
348
Okla ........ 4,469
Wyo ...... ;·.
253
7 States.. 25,976
U.S ........ 46,173
*Revised.
Aver.
'26-'35
1937* 1936
(000 omitted)
1,381
1,341
1,413
16,933 17,104 13,258
2,590
3,500
1,760
4,721
4,412
3,469
410
410
369
5,959
5,622 · 4,650
241
239
176
32,235
56,355
32,628 ·25,095
57,656 . 45,644
CONDITION
December 1
1938 1937 1936
( % of normal)
82
64
82
61
73
80
72
66
80
71
71
58
80
64
67
62
75
68
84
68
68
65
72
72
76
75
76
November rainfall in the District was about normal
or above except in.a ·r-a ther wide strip extending.fro~..
north-central Nebraska southward through the: wesf: .
REVIEW OF AGRICULTURAL AND BUSINESS CONDITIONS
4
ern parts of Kansas and Oklahoma and into southeastern Colorado and New Mexico. Most of the precipitation, however, occurred early in the month and
since that time very little moisture was received until
snow and rain covered some sections of the dry areas
in the third week of December. Rainfall for the three
months, September through November, was only 83
per cent of normal in Nebraska, 64 per cent in Kansas,
and 56 per cent in Oklahoma.
Rainfall
COLORADO
Denver.............................
Leadville .........................
Pueblo.............................
Lamar ..............................
Garnett ............................
Steamboat Springs........
11 Mos.1938
Nov.1938
Total Normal
Total Normal
(In inchesr-18.84
13.32
1.27
.55
1.43
.93
25.73
17.55
12.85
11.17
.41
.36
15.44
.53
17.48
.80
.24
.32
9.91
6.72
1.66
1.49
22.24
21.16
K AN SAS
Topeka.............................
Iola ...................................
Concor dia ........................
Salina...............................
Wichita............................
Hays ................................
Goodland .........................
Dodge City......................
Elkhart............................
MISSOURI
St . Joseph .......................
Kansas City....................
Joplin...............................
1.92
2.09
1.72
1.38
2.05
.30
.19
.05
1.52
2.22
.99
1.43
1.39
1.01
.72
.73
.84
28.77
42.78
27.25
26.93
32.66
22.11
16.91
18.90
17.22
32.57
36.78
25.92
26.50
29.11
23.07
18.14
19.94
16.97
1.90
2.70
3.57
1.58
1.83
2.77
26.33
36.42
38.40
34.27
35.78
41.83
Omaha .............................
1.53
Lincoln ............................
1.98
Norfolk. ...........................
1.37
Gr and Island ...................
.02
McCook............................
.02
Nor th Platte ...................
.23
Bridgepor t ......................
1.07
Valentine ........................
.08
NEW MEXICO
Clayton ............................ Tr ace
Santa F e..........................
1.09
Farmington ....................
.05
1.07
1.07
1.62
1.04
.78
.48
.43
.56
30.72
28.09
22.70
20.54
18.95
21.65
19.86
18.04
27.01
26.84
27.93
26.31
19.13
17.67
15.71
18.33
.72
.68
.86
14.36
15.13
6.58
15.74
13.53
8.79
1.47
2.53
1.94
2.80
2.97
2.31
.54
2.48
2.84
1.87
2.32
1.66
1.60
1.67
40.70
43.61
31.49
41.99
27.11
34.24
29.71
36.83
40.66
29.66
33.10
26.97
29.48
25.00
.63
.78
1.80
1.23
.52
.75
.60
.63
16.50
10.10
12.26
16.13
14.44
14.21
11.95
14.42
.o7
November grain receipts at five District markets:
Hutchinson......
Kansas City.....
Omaha..............
St.Joseph.........
Wichita.............
1,006
4,785
739
403
1,053
4,965
650
92
Nov.1938 .......... 7,986
131
Oct. 1938.......... 11,432
6,884
1,070
Nov.1937 .......... 5,700
7,481
133
888
11 Mos. 1938.... 170,257 29,424 10,617 1,395
11 Mos. 1937.... 173,314 22,552 14,084 1,351
No.1 hd., dk. wheat, bu ..
No. 2 mixed corn, bu .......
No. 2 white oats, bu ....... .
No. 2 rye, bu.................... .
No. 2 barley, bu .............. .
No. 2 white kafir, cwt.....
Dec. 23 Nov. 30 Oct. 31
1938
1938
1938
$ .67½ $ .63¾, $ .64¾,
.47½
.45
.40½
.29
.26
.24
.45
.41
.41 ½
.39
.37
.37
.71
.71
.63
Nov. 30
1937
$ .92¾,
.52¾
.31 ½
.67
.48
.87
Livestock
MARKETINGS
O KLAHOMA
WYOMING
Cheyenne ........................
Casper .............................
Lander .............................
Sheridan..........................
47
179
129
132
162
69
1,137 1,014
1,834
844
Early in December, cash wheat prices strengthened
and there was a further advance in corn prices from
their low point early in November. Smaller market
supplies and improvement in the outlook for exports
contributed to the advance. Continued dryness and
the rather poor condition of winter wheat also were
favorable to stronger wheat prices. About the middle
of the month, the rise in prices leveled off.
The lower range of cash grain prices at Kansas City:
N EBRASKA
Tulsa................................
McAleste1·.......................
Oklahoma City ...............
Pauls Valley...................
Hobar t .............................
Enid .................................
Woodward .......................
Corn
Oats
Rye Barley Kafir
(In thousands of bush~
31
1
143
18
2,061
168
33
27
59
2,020
138
2
344
878
5
5
Wheat
Grain Marketing
Marketings of wheat and corn, although smaller
than in the preceding month, continued in heavy volume through November, receipts of wheat being 18
and corn 43 per cent above the November ten-year
average. The heavy receipts, however, are not as
great a market influence as might be expected as
substantial amounts of wheat and corn are going into
terminal storage under Government account.
Marketings of cattle, calves, and sheep declined
seasonally in November while hog receipts showed a
small seasonal increase. Receipts of cattle and calves,
although only 8 per cent under the November ten-year
average, were nearly 20 per cent smaller than a year
ago. Marketings of hogs were 43 and sheep 12 per
cent under the average but receipts of both hogs and
sheep were about 13 per cent larger than in the same
month last year.
November livestock receipts at District markets:
Denver ......................
Kansas City............ .
Oklahoma City....... .
Omaha..................... .
St. Joseph ................ .
Wichita.....................
Nov.1938................
Oct. 1938..................
Nov.1937................
11 Mos. 1938.............
11 Mos. 1937............
Cattle
88,320
116,600
36,789
114,434
28,040
24,020
Calves
14,847
38,019
13,177
14,425
5,162
7,884
Hogs
25,327
130,339
26,189
124,445
66,121
16,282
Sheep
180,425
91,905
17,704
93,397
60,000
20,247
408,203
93,514
388;703
463,678
519,775 139,936
369,020
993,016
116,529
.
494,641
342,706
408,533
3,809,035 777,706 3,624,605 7,320,955
4,281,604 918,843 3,292,525 7,098,789
PRICES
Strong cattle and sheep and lamb prices and less
than seasonal weakness in hog prices feature the livestock price situation. Prices of beef steers had weakened slightly in November but have resumed their
advance in December, prime yearling beef establish~
ing a new high for the year of $13.50 a hundredweight ·
early in the month. Slaughter lamb prices, which
5
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY
Ranges in the District are generally in excellent
normally are declining at this season, had advanced
almost steadily from the middle of September to late condition except in western Kansas and Oklahoma
November before turning downward again, while hog where the shortage of moisture has restricted the
prices continue to decline. In addition to the tendency growth of range feed and where prospects for winter
to hold growing and breeding stock in producing areas, grain pastures also are unfavorable. Ample supplies
thus reducing available slaughter supplies, the cattle of supplemental feeds, however, are available in virmarket is being supported by a relative scarcity of top tually all se1ttions of the District and livestock is gengrades and a heavy country demand for lower grades erally in good condition.
for stocking and feeding purposes because of the favPIG CROP
orable feed situation. Since late in November, cattle
The fall pig crop in this District was 29 per cent
have sold above a year ago, when the sharp break in larger than a year ago, following a spring crop 19 per
livestock prices was in progress, and hog and sheep cent larger than last year. A further sharp upswing
prices are now showing a much less unfavorable com- in hog production is indicated by a prospective inparison with last year.
crease of 35 per cent over a year earlier in the number
Top livestock prices at the Kansas City market:
of sows to farrow next spring.
Dec. 23 Nov. Oct. Nov. Nov. Nov.
Department of Agriculture pig crop estimates:
Beef steers .............. .
Stocker cattle........ ..
Feeder cattle........ ....
Calves...................... .
Hogs ......................... .
Sheep....................... .
Lambs ........ ...............
1938 1938 1938 1937 1936
--(In dollars per hundredweight)
12.00 11.85 12.50 13.50 12.00
9.25
9.25
9.25
8.50
8.00
9.00
9.00
9.25 10.00
8.25
10.00 10.00 10.00
9.50
9.00
7.40
8.00
8.60
9.40
9.55
625
~00
6~0
7~5
6~5
9.00
9.50
8.65 10.15
9.25
1935
-12.25
8.50
8.00
9.50
9.65
7~5
11.10
STOCKERS AND FEEDERS
Countryward shipments of stocker and feeder livestock from public markets declined seasonally in November. The movement of cattle and calves continued
in fairly heavy volume, shipments of cattle being only
2 per cent below and calves 5 per cent above the November ten-year average. Shipments of hogs were
50 and sheep 21 per cent below the average.
November stocker-feeder shipments:
Cattle
63,695
63,384
39,054
5,585
Calves
11,072
16,607
6,756
2,047
Hogs
162
2,368
538
927
Sheep
146,505
11,167
20,058
9,970
161,618
Nov.1938 ....... ............ ....
Oct.1938 .................... ....
227,645
Nov.1937 ........ ...............
161,528
11 Mos. 1938......... ......... 1,088,649
11 Mos. 1937.................. 1,088,910
35,382
42,531
32,814
161,137
163,032
3,995
4,030
3,569
41,332
43,274
187,700
496,211
193,357
1,472,262
1,462,349
Denver............................
Kansas City...................
Omaha ............................
St. Joseph ....... ...............
According to the Department of Agriculture, developments to early December gave further evidence
of increased cattle feeding in Corn Belt states this
winter, and an increase in lamb feeding, including
lambs on Kansas and Nebraska wheat fields, now appears likely. In Nebraska, a reduction of 25 per cent
in the number of lambs on feed in the Scottsbluff area
will be largely but not wholly offset by increases elsewhere in that state. The high price of feeder cattle
and l~mbs and rather unfavorable returns from last
yeal".'s feeding operations, however, are holding down
feeding operations in western states, particularly in
Colorado. A decrease is also indicated in Oklahoma.
PIGS SAVED
Fall
1938
1937
Colo ................
Kans ...............
Mo ...................
Nebr ...............
N.Mex ...........
Okla ................
Wyo ................
162
798
1,926
820
48
676
16
147
620
1,451
632
60
525
12
SOWS FARROWED
Spring
Spring
1938
1937 *1939 1938
(In thousands)
179
27
165
39
746
188
130
856
1,588
2,038
390
307
2,128
1,876
462
330
10
54
62
10
632
603
138
102
40
31
10
8
7 States.........
4,435
3,437
5,912
4,984 1,237
914
27,661 23,431 43,437 38,476 8,237 6,826
*Number indicated to farrow from breeding intentions reports.
u. s................
Farm Income
October cash farm income in the District was about
15 per cent below a year ago, reflecting a decrease of
23 per cent in receipts from the sale of crops and of 15
per cent from the sale of livestock and livestock products. Government payments, as in other recent
months, were substantially larger than last year.
October income from crops was higher in Nebraska,
where increased marketings of corn, together with
Commodity Credit Corporation loans on corn, accounted for a small increase, but was down sharply in
other states of the District, particularly in Kansas,
where cash receipts from crops were less than a third
as large as a year ago. Receipts from livestock showed
the largest decline in Nebraska and Wyoming with
decreases of about 30 per cent.
Income estimates of the Department of Agriculture:
Colorado .................................
Kansas ........................... ....... .
Missouri.. .............................. .
Nebraska .............................. .
New Mexico .......................... .
Oklahoma..............................
Wyoming.....~'.························
Seven states.... ~.....................
United States........................
Cbangefrom
Oct. 1938 Sept. 1938
Oct. 1937
( En thousands of dollars)
17,268
+5,386
-1,957
17,856
-3,980
-6,892
25,263
+2,721
-1,903
18,858
+3,876
-5,703
8,200
+4,126
-276
17,882
+1,484
-197
7,826
+1,544
-2,649
113,153
839,000
+15,156
+75,000
-19,577
-73,000
6
REVIEW OF AGRICULTURAL AND BUSINESS CONDITIONS
Meat Packing
During November the proportion of market receipts
of livestock being ret urned to the country as stockers
and feeders declined somewhat a:nd the supply available for slaughter increased correspondingly. As a
result, packer s' purchases of cattle were only 8 and
sheep 2 per cent below the November average of the
past ten years, while calf slaughter was 19 and hog
slaughter 38 per cent below average. The slaughter
of cattle and calves continues considerably below and
that of hogs and sheep considerably above a year ago.
November packers' purchases at District markets:
Denver.........................
Kansas City................
Oklahoma City...........
Omaha.........................
St. Joseph ....................
Wichita........................
Cattle
17,549
51,358
20,456
69,403
20,145
11,222
Calves
2,683
13,500
9,006
7,669
3,161
3,658
Hogs
20,894
124,583
15,772
106,815
61,626
13,698
Sheep
27,298
76,372
11,552
67,060
49,257
8,115
Nov. 1938.................... 180,133 39,667
3-43,288
239,654
Oct.1938...................... 193,211
61,635
323,475
274,869
Nov.1937.................... 211,890
60,068
296,478
189,478
11 Mos. 1938............... 1,940,367 462,060 3,203,673 3,376,572
11 Mos. 1937............... 2,080,132 629,_298 2,909,968 3,306,855
Cold Storage Holdings
United'States cold storage stocks of meats, lard, and
poultry increased and holdings of eggs, butter, and
cheese declined seasonally during November. Total
stocks of meat continue very low, December 1 holdings
being the lowest of record for that date. Stocks of
eggs also are exceptionally small but holdings of poultry and butter are very large.
United States cold storage holdings:
Beef, lbs ...............................
Pork, lbs ............................. .
Lamb and mutton, lbs ...... .
Poultry, lbs .........................
Miscellaneous meats, lbs ..
Lard, lbs ..............................
Eggs, shell, cases ...............
Eggs,frozen ( case equiv.)
Butter, creamery, lbs ........
Cheese, all varieties, lbs ....
Dec. 1
Nov. 1
Dec. 1
Dec. 1
1938
1938
1937 6-Yr.Av.
- ( I n thousands of units)
62,762
41,218
53,741
99,128
296,600 261,645 306,630 424,922
3,073
2,606
2,286
4,194
117,837
77,692 108,746 108,202
53,744
50,268
50,546
76,103
72,281
67,667
33,966
80,108
1,441
3,244
2,672
2,437
2,232
2,694
3,455
2,370
158,872 194,285
66,191
89,241
127,599 132,326 108,497 107,369
Flour Milling ·
Activity at southwestern 'flour mills dropped seasonally in _N ovember. The steadily dwindling backlog
of ·o rders is exceptionally low and flour sales continue
in small volume with the approaching inventory and
seasonally dull holiday period. This situation, however,
has been offs.et to some extent by recent heavy grinding on Government purchases of flour for relief purposes, and operations remain at a fairly high level for
this time of year. November flour productio:µ was
slightly lower than a year ago or the November average .of the past ten yeiirs; ·while output for the first
eleven months of the year shows a decline of 6 per
cent from last year. Flour and millfeed prices are
steady to slightly higher.
Flour production reported by the Northwestern
Miller:
Nov.1938
586,000
Kansas City.......................... .
214,000
Salina.................................... .
Wichita...................................
155,000
Other cities ........................... . 1,074,000
Change from
Oct. 1938 Nov.1937
( In barrels)
-71,000
-51,000
-6,000
+43,000
-19,000
-32,000
-125,000
-29,000
Southwest.............................. 2,029,000
-221,000
-69,000
United States*...................... 5,588,000
-791,000
-29,000
*Represents about oO p er cent of total output in United States.
Petroleum
Daily average crude oil production in the District
declined slightly further in November. Output continues to hold at about the. average level of the past
ten years although production both in November and
in the first eleven months of the year was about 19
per cent under the high level of last year.
·
Oil production reported by the American Petroleu~
Institute and the Bureau of Mines:
Nov. 1938
Oct. 1938
Nov.1937
Gross D. Av.
Gross D. Av.
Gross D. Av.
---U-n thousands of barrels_)__ - - 3.8
125
4.0
132
4.4
Colo..............
115
4,835 156.0
6,591 186.4
Kans............. 4,524 150.8
3,093
99.8
3,206 106.9
N. Mex.........
3,213 107.1
14,066 453.7
17,395 679.8
Okla............. 13,275 442.5
52.9
1,649
53.2
1,585
62~8
Wyo.............. 1,587
5 States.......
u. 8..............
22,714 757.1
99,357 3,311.9
23,768 766.7
101,830 3,284.8
27,909 930.3.
104,206 3,473.5
Prices of both crude petroleum and motor gasoline
continue weak, despite a further reduction in stocks
of crude petroleum produced in this District and the
unexpectedly high rate of gasoline consumption as
a result of mild weather that has prolonged the motoring season. Crude stocks are now 19 per cent under
the rather high level of a year ago and stocks of gasoline, as well as crude oil, are in much better balance
with prospective requirements than late in 1937.
Coal
Output of bituminous coal showed a further seasonal increase in November. Production in Nove~ber
was only 2 per cent less than a year ago while that_for
the year to date is 19 per cent less . ....
Coal output estimated from reports of the Nation~l
Bituminous Coal Commission: ·
Nov. 1938
Colorado .. ..............................
Kansas and Missour i...........
New Mexico .. :.......................
Oklahoma..............................
Wyoming..................._...........
716,000
569,000
146,000
200,000
621,000
Six states...............................
United States........................
2,252,000
35,480,000
Change from
Oct.1938 Nov. 1937
(In tons)
-10,000
+175,000
+36,000 -102,000
+16,000
+14,-000
+22,000
. -7.,000
+56,000 .. +49,~_o_o..
+305,000
+386,000
-66,000
-948,000
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY
Zinc and Lead
Shipments of zinc from the Tri-State mining district increased somewhat in November, reflecting
principally the advance in prices in the early part of
the month that released supplies which were being
held firmly by producers, and there was a further
small increase in shipments of lead. Zinc shipments
were 13 per cent larger but lead shipments 14 per cent
smaller than in November of last year.
November shipments from the Tri-State district:
ZINC ORE
LEAD ORE
Tons
Value
11,645 $ 353,070
1,563
47,272
24,211
736,456
Tons
Value
1,265 $ 71,518
258
14,564
2,972
168,054
Nov.1938.................. 37,419 $ 1,136,798
Oct. 1938.................. 32,198
952,469
Nov.1937.................. 32,995
1,105,845
11 Mos. 1938............. 346,093
9,664,571
11 Mos. 1937............. 436,979 17,777,888
4,495 $ 254,136
4,229
239,130
5,212
295,846
46,819 2,408,030
59,441 4,248,203
Kansas..................... .
Missouri .......~ ............
·Oklahoma.................
Following advances in the preceding two months,
zinc and lead prices dropped sharply in the latter part
of November and the forepart of December.
Employment and Pay Rolls
Following a further rise from the middle of September to the middle of October, employment and pay
rolls in the seven states that are wholly or partly in
this District declined slightly from October to November. Employment and pay rolls at the middle of
November were about 6 per cent below a year ago.
Preliminary figures of the Department of Labor:
Colorado..................................... .
Kansas .........................................
Missouri ..................................... .
Nebraska................................... .
New Mexico .............. ................. .
Oklahoma.................................. .
Wyoming................................... .
November 1938
per cent change from
October 1938
Employment
Pay Rolls
-0.7
+6.5
-0.6
- 1.9
+0.1
-1.0
+1.0
+4.4
-2.8
+4.0
-1.4
-1.5
+0.1
+5.2
Seven states....... ....................... .
-0.2
-1.0
Building
The value of construction contracts awarded in this
District in November was 30 per cent larger than a
year ago, residential awards showing an increase of
57 per cent and awards for other types of building an
increase of 23 per cent. For the year to date, residential awards are still 4 per cent below a year ago but
nonresidential and total awards are now higher.
Construction figures of the F. W. Dodge Corporation:
Nov.1938.. ........
Oct. 1938..........
Nov. 1937..........
11 Mos.1938.....
11 Mos. 1937.....
2,990
3,211
1,905
31,122
32,320
The value of November building permits in reporting District cities was nearly 80 per cent greater than
a year ago and the largest for any November since
1929. So far this year, however, value of permits is
down 16 per cent from last year.
November building permits issued in District cities :
ESTIMATED COST
PERMITS
1938
Albuquerque, N. Mex...
Cheyenne, Wyo ............ _
Colorado Springs, Colo.
Denver, Colo..................
Hutchinson, Kans .... .....
Joplin, Mo ......................
Kansas City, Kans... ... ·
Kansas City, Mo .... ........
Lincoln, Nebr.................
Oklahoma City, Okla.-...
Omaha, Nebr .................
Pueblo, Colo.............. ...
Salina, Kans .................
Shawnee, Okla ...............
St. Joseph, Mo ...............
Topeka, Kans ................
Tulsa, Okla....................
Wichita, Kans ... ........ ....
-yg
30
44
512
58
15
13
124
119
172
130
1937
62 $
24
5
9
39
147
227
27
61
484
74
14
24
110
94
141
89
45
9
15
16
49
62
141
November..................... , 1,763
October.................... ....... 2,504
Eleven months .............. 22,388
1,507
2,246
22,066
47
1938
265,000 $
87,000
24,000
454,000
36,000
40,000
698,000
809,000
74,000
391,000
151,000
28,000
59,000
2,000
11,000
48,000
284,000
292,000
1937
89,000
32,000
28,000
398,000
41,000
21,000
39,000
163,000
132,000
395,000
261,000
16,000
18,000
7,000
5,000
38,000
300,000
112,000
$ 3,753,000 $ 2,095,000
3,379,000
3,938,000
33,136,000 39,311,000
Lumber
Reflecting the marked improvement in building
operations in recent months, retail lumber sales continue at a level substantially above that of a year ago.
November board feet sales were 27 per cent larger
than last year and total sales for the first eleven
months of the year are now above the corresponding
period last year.
Collections on amounts outstanding averaged 29.8
per cent in November as compared with 34.0 per cent
in October and 32.3 per cent in November a year ago.
Lumber trade at 154 retail yards in the District:
Sales of lumber, board feet .......... ............
Sales of all materials, dollars ................. .
Stocks of lumber, board feet ............. .......
Outstandings, dollars .............................. .
November 1938
per cent change from
Oct. 1938
Nov. 1937
-14.2
+27.4
-9.2
+9.3
+0.1
-8.6
+1.2
+10.7
Life Insurance
Life insurance sales in the District in November
were 8 and in the first eleven months of the year 13
per cent lower than in the same periods last year.
The Life Insurance Sales Research Bureau report:
Change from
Nov. 1938
Oct. 1938 Nov. 1937
(In thousands of dollars)
Colorado ...................................
4,825
+577
-1,162
Kansas ..................................... .
6,631
+705
-1,467
Missouri .................................. 17,548
+2,657
-370
N ebraska......................... :....... .
5,290
+645
+96
New Mexico ........ .................... .
974
-277
-247
Oklahoma................................ .
8,072
-231
-619
Wyoming................................ .
1,296
+227
+155
37 EASTERN STATES
Total
Residential
Total
(In thousands of dollars) ·
13,392
95,253
301,679
11,154
112,673
357,698
10,334
59,900
198,400
115,260
894,248
2,810,823 Seven states ............. ,,.,. ......... .
114,717
862,075
2,709,004 United States ............ ~ ............ .
TENTH DISTRICT
Residential
7
44,636
570,648
+4,303
+81,692 ·.
-3,614
-2,697
REVIEW OF AGRICULTURAL AND BUSINESS CONDITIONS
8
NATIONAL SUMMARY OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS
By the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
IIEltC!NT
PEIIC[N T
140
140
130
130
120
120
11 0
110
100
·100
90
90
80
80
70
70
60 ...,__ ___.__ ___,_ __
1934
193~
__.__ ___.._
1936
1937
_
_
60
1938
Index of physical volume of production, adjusted
for seasonal variation, 1923-1925 a verage =l00.
By months , January, 1934, t hrough November,
1938.
FACTORY EMPLOYMENT
,ucENf
PERCENT
120
120
110
110
IOO
!CO
90
90
80
80
70
70
The sharp rise in industrial production, which began early last summer,
continued in November. Preliminary reports for the first three weeks of
December indicate some slowing down in the advance. Employment also
increased in November and pay rolls showed little change, although a decline
is usual at this season. Distribution of commodities to consumers increased
considerably.
PRODUCTION
The Board's seasonally adjusted index of industrial production in N ovember rose to 103 per cent of the 1923-1925 average from 96 per cent in October.
Output of steel continued to increase, contrary to the seasonal trend, and
there was a further sharp rise in automobile production. In the first three
weeks of December activity at steel mills declined somewhat more than seasonally, while output of automobiles continued at the high level reached at
the end of November. Lumber production in November decreased by more
than the usual seasonal amount. In the nondurable goods industries, shoe
production declined seasonally, while output of textiles showed a considerable expansion, with increased activity at cotton, wool, and silk mills. At
mines, bituminous coal output increased further and production of anthracite showed less than the usual seasonal decline. Output of petroleum showed
little change.
Value of construction contracts awarded in November showed a decline
from the high level reached in October, according to F. W. Dodge figures for
37 Eastern States. Private and public projects both declined, following
increases in October. The decline in contracts for private residential building was less than seasonal.
EMPLOYMENT
60 _ _ _ _ __ L_ _ _ j _ __ __i..__ ___,L...-_--,.,.., 60
1934
193~
1937
1936
1938
Index of number employed, adjusted for sea sonal
variation, 1923-1926 average= l00. By months,
January, 1934, through November, 1938.
CONSTRUCTION CONTP.ACTS AWARDED
MILL. ION S Of'DOLUIII
Mtl.UONS OFDOU..ARS
800
800
Employment increased somewhat further and pay rolls showed little
change between the middle of October and the middle of November, although
declines are usual at this time of year. In manufacturing the number employed continued to rise, reflecting principally a further sharp increase at
automobile factories and substantial increases in the machinery, steel, and
textile industries. Employment declined seasonally at establishments producing clothing and shoes; in most other industries employment increased
somewhat. In lines other than manufacturing , employment showed some increase, when allowance is made for usual seasonal changes.
DISTRIBUTION
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
19..~
ISM
19M
1937
t9a8
Three-month moving averages of F. W. Dodge
data for value of contracts awarded in 87 Eastern
States, adjust ed for sea sonal variation. Latest
figures based on data for S eptember and October
and estimate for N ovember .
MEMBER BANK RESERVES AND RELATED ITEMS
.BIUJONS Of DOLLARS
14
Distribution of commodities to consumers showed a considerable increase
in November. Department store sales and mail-order sales, which had been
retarded in October by unseasonably warm weather, rose sharply, and sales
·at variety stores also increased in November. Sales of automobiles to consumers expanded sharply following the introduction of new models and in
November were larger than a year earlier.
·
Freight carloadings, which had increased considerably in previous months,
showed a slightly less than seasonal decline in November.
COMMODITY PRICES
Prices of some industrial materials, such as nonferrous metals, hides, and
cotton goods, decreased somewhat from the middle of November to the third
week of December. Sugar prices also declined, while grains advanced somewhat. Prices of most other agricultural and industrial commodities continued
to show little change.
BANK CREDIT
4
1934
1935
1938
1937
1938
Wednesday figures, January 3, 1934, through
December 21, 1988.
In connection with pre-holiday trade, there was a sharp increase in money
in circulation and as the result of this increase in the demand for currency,
together with Treasury operations around December 15, there was a temporary decline in member bank reserves.
Following declines during November, total loans and investments of reporting member banks in 101 leading cities increased during the first three weeks
of December, largely reflecting operations of the Treasury. Loans to security dealers by New York banks increased sharply, reflecting temporary borrowing for the purpose of carrying Government securities exchangeable for
new issues on December 15. Adjusted demand deposits rose to a new high
level in the first half of December.
@FedFRASER