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REVIE\V
MONTHLY
Agricultural and Business Conditions
TENTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT
VoL. 24, No. 12
DECEMBER
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY
30, 1939
Business in the Tenth Federal Reserve District
NOVEMBER 1939
COMPARED WITH NOVEMBER 1938
% INCREASE
% DECREASE
---
40 30 20 10
10 20
30 40
■
I
■
■
-·
I
■
■
■
I
Trade
I
■
I
- Wholesale Salea_
____ Retail Salee_
__Dept. Store Sales_
-Lumber Salee_
•
Marketing•
-- - --Wheat_ _
__ _ Corn _ _
■
_ _oats _ _ _
■
___
_cattle, _ _
·-- -·Calves._ _
•
I
_Life,In1. Sales_
I
•••
•
...Demand Depoaita_
•
I
I
...Hem. Bk. Invest._
I
••
% INCREASE
10 20 30 40
-llem. Bk. Loan,_
I
■
.
% DECREASE
40 30 20 10
F. R. Bk. Clearfnp_
I
Snows and rain near the end of
December in many parts of the
District brought temporary relief from the unprecedented fall
drought. This moisture stopped
the serious deterioration that had
been in progress and will benefit
wheat. The condition of winter
wheat, however, is the worst ever
known at this season.
Cash farm income is nearly a
quarter greater than a year ago
due to higher grain prices, a
larger amount of grain under
Government loan, larger marketings of livestock because of the
drought, and a 60 % increase in
Government payments. Higher
farm income probably explains
Why trade is better than might
be expected.
Grain marketings are much
under a year ago but those of
livestock are higher. Marketings
and slaughter of hogs, calves, and
sheep are especially large.
Bank loans are 18 % above last
year while bank investments are
slightly lower.
Financial
11 MOS. 1939
COMPARED WITH 11 MOS. 1938
__ _Bank Debita_
■
I
BUSINESS
INDICATORS
+"
.
I
.■
___ .Hop_·_ _
__
_ _Sheep _ _
I
l'roduction
_ _ Flour_ _ _
___ Cattle Slaughter...
__ Hog Slaughter_ _
••
... Sheep Slaughter___
I
__Crude Petroleum __
■
__ Calf Slaughter_
+"
I
I
...Dituminoua CoaL
Zinc Ore Shipments
Lead Ore Shipmenta
Con,truction
_ Total
Award■ .--
.......Re■ • A ward■ __
.
I
■
I
__ Value of Permits ...
M i,ccllaneou,
·---····Rainfall.. _____
Cash Farm Income•
____Employment_
____Pay Roll■-•For previous month
•i
I
■
2
REVIEW OF AGRICULTURAL AND BUSINESS CONDITIONS
Member Bank Operations
Loans at reporting member banks in the Tenth
District continued to rise from the middle of November to the middle of December, reflecting not only a
substantial further increase in the volume of commercial loans, which had been expanding since early
last May, but increases in nearly all other types of
loans as well. Investments increased somewhat further from the low point of the year at the first of
October, owing principally to large purchases of Treasury bills. Holdings of Treasury notes and Government
bonds declined during the four weeks, while holdings
of obligations guaranteed by the Government and
other securities were little changed. Loans are now
about 18 per cent larger but investments are slightly
smaller than a year ago.
Adjusted demand deposits at reporting member
banks have again risen almost to the record level of
last October, but deposits of other banks at these reporting banks, their correspondent balances at other
banks, and their reserve balances at this bank are all
down sharply from recent highs. Adjusted demand
deposits are 8 and deposits due to banks 14 per cent
larger than a year ago, while reserves are 20 and correspondent balances 8 per cent greater.
Principal items of condition of 51 member banks:
Change from
Dec.13
Nov. 15 Dec. 14
1939
1939
1938
(In thousands of dollars)
Loans and investments-total........ 693,830 + 15,044 + 44,456
Loans-total... ................................... 299,215
+8,781 +44,926
Coml., indust., agric ........................ 184,470
+6,120 +30,177
Open market paper....._.................. 17,628
+788
+862
To security brokers and dealers.... 4,062
+944
-159
Other to purchase or carry secur.. 10,004
+250 -1,816
Real estate loans............................. 26,446
+437 +3,797
Loans to banks.................................
628
-438
-115
All other loans................................. 56,088
+ 680 + 12,180
Investments-total........................... 394,615
+6,263
-470
U. S. Treasury bills......................... 26,968 + 11,951
•
U.S. Treasury notes....................... 81,657
-1,656
•
U.S. Govt. bonds............................. 96,682
-3,892
•
Oblig.. guar. by U.S. Govt............. 67,648
+226 +5,940
Other securities............................... 131,770
-366 +2,446
Reserve with F. R. Bank................... 189,655
+971 +31,650
Balances with domestic banks ......... 306,489 -33,518 +21,649
Demand deposits-adjusted ............ 539,497
+8,990 +41,621
Time deposits ..................................... 143,128
-2,104 + 1,295
U.S. Govt. deposits........................... 23,787
+840 +3,131
Interbank deposits ............................ 417,137 -23,934 +50,195
*Comparable figures not available.
Reserve Bank Operations
Note circulation of this bank continues to increase,
reaching a new high level of 1831/3 million dollars early
in December before the return flow of currency that
usually takes place shortly after the first of the
month. During the first half of December, circulation
averaged better than 1823/4 million as compared with
about 180½ million in November and 178¼ million
in October and is nearly 12 million above what it was
at this time last year.
Principal items of condition of the Federal Reserve
Bank of Kansas City and branches:
Total reserves...............................
Bills discounted............................
Bills purchased.............................
Industrial advances.....................
Commit. to make indust. adv......
U.S. Govt. sec., direct & guar....
Total assets...................................
F. R. notes in circulation.............
Member bank reserve deposits..
Change from
Dec. 13
Nov. 15 Dec. 14
1939
1939
1938
(In thousands of dollars)
376,846 +16,726 +59,434
1,048
-489
+366
Zero
Zero
-16
183
-2
-86
550
-17
-2
113,085
-4,328
-164
633,233
+6,417 +67,411
182,225
+ 1,829 + 11,961
261,392
-1,942 +32,654
Dollar volume of check collections declined less
than seasonally during November. Dollar volume in
November was 10 but in the first eleven months of
1939 only 6 per cent larger than in 1938.
Check collections through this bank and branches:
ITEMS
1939
November..............
October..................
Eleven months......
5,755
6,083
65,061
AMOUNT
1938
1939
1938
On thousands)
5,895
$ 1,014,840 $ 921,143
6,170
1,066,556
965,412
64,348
10,392,486
9,814,018
Bank Debits
Following a small contraseasonal decrease in the
preceding month, debits to individual accounts by
banks in reporting centers of the District declined considerably less than is usual during November. Volume of payments by check in November was 5 and
in the first eleven months of the year about 3 per cent
larger than in the corresponding periods last year.
Payments by check in thirty District cities:
Albuquerque, N. Mex ........
Atchison, Kans .................. .
Bartlesville, Okla ...............
Casper, Wyo...................... .
Cheyenne, Wyo ................. .
Colorado Springs, Colo .....
Denver, Colo ...................... .
Emporia, Kans .................. .
Enid, Okla .......................... .
Fremont, Nebr .................. .
Grand Junction, Colo ........
Guthrie, Okla.................... .
Hutchinson, Kans ............. .
Independence, Kans ......... .
Joplin, Mo .......................... .
Kansas City, Kans .............
Kansas City, -Mo ............... .
Lawrence, Kans ................ .
Lincoln, Nebr.................... .
Muskogee, Okla ................ .
Oklahoma City, Okla ....... .
Okmulgee, Okla ................ .
Omaha, Nebr ..................... .
Pittsburg, Kans .................
Pueblo, Colo ........................
Salina, Kans .......................
St. Joseph, Mo ....................
Topeka, Kans .....................
Tulsa, Okla........................ .
Wichita, Kans ....................
Change from
Nov.1939 Oct.1939 Nov.1938
( In thousands of dollars)
18,169
+1,681
+1,221
2,766
-267
-75
33,085
+5,776
+2,563
7,001
-777
+284
8,188
-1,237
-525
16,334
-676
+638
-9,134
163,563
+6,709
3,336
-461
+6
9,649
-259
+327
2,420
-136
+139
3,846
-437
+52
1,300
-292
-408
-2,720
9,680
-943
-137
2,488
-34
10,385
-1,113
+1,396
15,868
-692
+813
296,917
-27,310
+27,152
-606
3,362
+266
-794
29,975
+2,335
-2,270
-161
7,536
99,238
-2,365
+3,719
2,563
-16
+78
140,102
-9,425
-2,187
3,605
-240
+139
23,493
-1,426
+5,775
8,085
-1,072
-202
28,064
-1,165
+4,191
15,571
-41
+187
131,883
+3,092
+6,878
39,393
-5,605
+110
District, 30 cities...............
United States, 141 cities...
1,137,743
-63,382
+52,621
31,676,086 -1,035,219 +2,212,616
s
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY
Wholesale sales and stocks reported by the Department of Commerce for this District:
Trade
RETAIL SALES
Dollar volume of sales at reporting department
SALES
STOCKS
Nov. '39 11 Mos.'39
Nov. 30, '39
stores in the District in November, as in the preceding
No. of comp.to comp. to
comp. to
month, were under a year ago while total sales for the
Firms Nov.'38 11 Mos.'38 Oct.31,'39 Nov.30,'38
-( Per cent increase or decrease)
first eleven months of the year were a little larger
Auto. supplies .... 9
+8.3
-0.2
+0.4
-1.2
than last year. During the first three weeks of Decem- Drugs
.................. 12
-4.4
-0.5
-1.0
+1.6
ber, sales were 5 per cent above last year. Gift buying ' Dry goods........... 7
-4.3
-0.1
-9.4
-6.6
Electrical goods. 11
+39.4
+18.1
-1.5
+1.3
was in large volume but the movement of other sea- Farm
products ... 9
+8.0
+2.0
-10.7
sonal merchandise continued to be greatly curtailed Furniture............ 3
+5.3
+11.2
-0.3
Groceries ............. 42
-3.4
-1.8
+10.3
by exceptionally mild weather. Retail prices are about Hdwe.-total...
-0.4
... (17)
+7.8
+6.0
+6.1
3 per cent above a year ago.
-0.3
Gener~!.............. 8
+ 10.6
+3.3
+5.0
-0.9
Industrial...
.......
5
+0.5
+10.3
+6.4
Stocks of merchandise increased further by more
Plbg. & htg....... 4
+1.6
+10.6
than the usual amount during November and are now Jwlry.&opt.gds. 3
+1.7
-4.8
+4.8
........... 3
+14.3
2 per cent above a year ago. Collections on open ac- Machinery
Paper & prod...... 4
+5.6
counts averaged 48.4 per cent in November as com- Tobacco & prod.. 8
-0.3
-1.7
-2.8
+5.5
+8.6
+4.9
+o.5
+5.6
pared with 48.2 per cent last year, while installment All other lines .... 17
collections averaged 16.9 against 16.1 per cent.
Total... ................ 145
-1.1
+0.6
+4.7
+0.4
Department store sales and stocks in leading cities: Crops
SALES
STOCKS
Unprecedented fall drought, intensified by unseasonably high temperatures that depleted rapidly
the limited supply of soil moisture, is reflected in a
decrease of about 6 per cent in the acreage sown to
winter wheat in the District in 1939 and in the lowest
December 1 condition of wheat on record. The acreage in Kansas is about 7 and in Nebraska 17 per cent
smaller than that seeded in the fall of 1938 and is considerably below the average from 1927 to 1936, but in
District.............. 39
-1.3
+1.1
+6.3
+2.0
Oklahoma the acreage is 5 per cent larger than last
Total retail sales in the District in November and year and is above the average. The fall seeded acreage
in the first eleven months of the year were about 4 per is far below the very large acreage sown in the years
cent larger than in the same periods last year.
1936 and 1937.
Sales of independent retail stores reported by the
Department of Agriculture estimates of winter
Department of Commerce:
wheat acreage and condition:
Nov. '39 11 Mos.'39
Nov. 30, '39
No. of comp.to comp. to
comp. to
Stores Nov. '38 11 Mos.'38 Oct.31,'39 Nov.30,'38
- - ~ r cent increase or decrease)
Denver............... 4
+0.9
+2.3
+8.7
-2.1
Kansas City...... 5
+3.0
+2.6
+6.2
+3.8
Oklahoma City. 3
-6.4
+1.9
+8.8
+10.8
Omaha................ 3
- 5.3
-1.1
+2.9
+1.1
Tulsa.................. 4
+o.4
-0.4
+7.9
+4.6
Wichita.............. 3
-2.0
Zero
... .
Other cities....... 17
-5.2
-1.2
+2.2
+1.8
Nov.1939 per cent change from Nov.1938
Colo. Kans. Mo. Nebr. N.Mex. ~ Wyo.
Apparel........... -9.0 -2.8 +3.0 -1.9 -6.4 -0.4 -12.8
Automobile..... +1.8 +11.4 +27.1 +14.0 +o.4 -0.7 -7.0
Country gen!.. -9.5 -3.4 +3.3 -4.0 -5.7 -2.5 +9.7
Department.... +2.2 -3.0 +4.7 -5.9
-6.5
....
Drug_ _ _ +1.8 -0.1 +5.3 +7.1 +2.6 +0.2 +9.5
Furniture........ +12.1 +3.7 +3.4 +9.1 -13.2 -6.1
Grocery........... -1.0 -5.8 +o.8 -3.2 +2.0 -3.2 -0.3
Hardware........ +1.8 +9.9 +4.0 +5.3
+2.8
Lbr. & mtls ..... +4.3 -1.1 +21.1 +4.8 +3.7 -5.8 +44.9
Total................ +1.0
----
+o.9 +6.8
Zero
-0.9
-----2.5 +8.3
WHOLESALE SALES
The value of wholesale sales in this District in November and in the first eleven months of 1939 was
little changed from that in the corresponding periods
of 1938. Of the principal lines, sales of drugs, dry
goods, and groceries are running somewhat below a
year ago, while sales of furniture and hardware are
considerably above last year. Wholesale stocks at the
close of November were 5 per cent larger than a year
earlier. Collections in November averaged 67.9 per
cent as compared with 75.3 per cent last year.
FALL SEEDED ACREAGE
1939
__.
Colo........ 1,246
Kans ....... 12,913
Mo........... 1,751
Nebr ....... 3,174
N. Mex... 376
Okla ........ 5,094
Wyo........ 239
1938 1937
(000 omitted)
1,385 1,371
13,885 16,933
1,883 2,690
3,824 4,721
342
410
4,851 6,300
241
241
Aver.
'27-'36
-1,355
13,694
1,936
3,539
387
4,736
190
7 States.. 24,793 26,411 32,666 25,836
U.S ........ 45,014 46,364 56,539 46,996
1
Aver.
'38 '37 '27-'36
(Per cent) - 82
64
70
61
73
76
72
66
86
71
71
79
80
64
77
62
75
74
84
68
75
CONDITION DEC.
'39
38
35
68
37
57
34
60
38
55
66
72
72
76
77
80
Snow and rain toward the close of December
brought some relief from the drought. At best, however, the condition of winter wheat is only fair over
the eastern parts of Kansas and Oklahoma and in extreme eastern and western Nebraska, and elsewhere
in the District it is generally quite poor, with much
of the acreage not yet having even germinated. Supplies of both topsoil and subsoil moisture at the first
of December had been only one-fifth to one-third of
normal, Nebraska showing the greatest deficiency.
REVIEW OF AGRICULTURAL AND BUSINESS CONDITIONS
4
November rainfall was about normal in Missouri
and New Mexico but in Oklahoma it was only 65, Kansas 63, and Colorado 34 per cent of normal and in Wyoming and Nebraska it was virtually lacking, the percentages being 1 and 4, respectively. For the three
months, September through November, Nebraska had
only 25, Kansas 29, and Oklahoma 41 per cent of normal precipitation.
1
storage. Marketings of oats were 30 per cent smaller
than a year ago and 38 per cent under average.
November grain receipts at five District markets:
Rainfall
Nov.1939............................
Oct. 1939..............................
Nov. 1938............................
11 Mos. 1939.......................
11 Mos. 1938.......................
COLORADO
Denver..........................
Leadville.......................
Pueblo...........................
Lamar...........................
Garnett.........................
Steamboat Springs.....
Nov.1939
11 Mos.1939
Total Normal
Total Normal
- -(In
- inches)
.01
.55
7.32 13.32
.33
.93
12.22 17.55
.51
.36
8.46 11.17
.26
.63
8.59 16.19
.03
.32
4.40
6.72
.25
1.49
17.57 21.16
KANSAS
Topeka..........................
Iola................................
Concordia.....................
Salina............................
Wichita .........................
Hays ..............................
Goodland.......................
Dodge City...................
Elkhart.........................
MISSOURI
St. Joseph.....................
Kansas City.................
Joplin ............................
1.42
2.19
.48
1.00
.81
.11
Zero
.42
.03
1.52
2.22
.99
1.43
1.39
1.01
.72
.73
.84
21.59
25.40
19.36
17.53
27.96
15.15
16.71
11.76
7.89
2.73
2.46
3.05
1.58
1.83
2.77
26.95 34.27
34.04 36.78
37.67 41.83
.36
.62
Trace
Trace
Trace
Trace
Zero
Trace
1.07
1.07
1.12
1.04
.78
.47
.43
.66
18.58
18.79
16.96
16.16
13.75
11.29
12.61
17.81
26.84
26.98
27.43
26.27
19.13
17.82
16.71
18.29
.95
.74
.47
.72
.68
.86
10.82
12.88
7.35
16.23
13.53
9.01
1.78
2.16
.84
1.90
.17
.42
.40
2.48
2.84
1.87
2.32
1.66
1.60
1.67
26.57
31.91
26.57
25.48
20.02
23.30
19.14
36.83
40.66
29.65
33.10
26.97
29.46
25.00
.06
Zero
Zero
Zero
.55
.99
.68
.64
9.57
8.53
7.88
16.16
14.47
14.45
12.03
14.43
32.57
36.78
25.92
26.60
29.11
23.07
18.14
19.94
16.97
NEBRASl{A
Omaha...........................
Lincoln..........................
Norfolk.........................
Grand Island................
McCook.........................
North Platte................
Bridgeport....................
Valentine......................
NEW MEXICO
Clayton.........................
Santa Fe.......................
Farmington..................
OKLAHOMA
Tulsa.............................
McAlester.....................
Oklahoma City............
Pauls Valley.................
Hobart..........................
Enid...............................
Woodward ....................
WYOMING
Cheyenne......................
Casper...........................
Lander..........................
Sheridan.......................
Grain Marketing
Wheat marketings remained in small volume during November, reflecting principally holding by producers because of the poor outlook for next year's
crop and the large amount of wheat stored under Government loans. Receipts of wheat were 41 per cent
smaller than a year ago and 26 per cent below the
November average of the past ten years. Corn receipts, although 19 per cent smaller than a year ago,
were 12 per cent above average, owing in part to the
movement of Government loan corn to terminal
Wheat
Hutchinson......................... .
~~~ha:
. ~~~~:::::::::::::::::::::::·
St. Joseph ............................
Wichita ............................... .
787,000
2,269,000
438,000
189,000
1,053,000
Corn
( In bushels)
Oats
1,713,000
1,583,000
684,000
26,000
120,000
188,000
140,000
8,000
4,736,000
4,006,000
456,000
5,202,000
4,089,000
897,000
8,076,000
4,965,000
650,000
157,231,000 22,962,000 9,746,000
170,347,000 29,414,000 10,617,000
Cash wheat prices, which for three months had
fluctuated rather narrowly around the high point of
the early September upturn, again advanced sharply
in the first three weeks of December, rising to the
highest level in two years. Continued deterioration in
domestic winter wheat prospects and damage to the
Argentine crop, together with heavy war buying of
Canadian wheat, were the principal strengthening influences. Corn prices, which had lost virtually all of
the early September upturn, have risen gradually the
past two months and have regained about half the
decline. Wheat prices are now substantially above
while corn prices are still somewhat below Federal
loan levels.
The lower range of cash prices at Kansas City:
No. 1 hd., dk. wheat, bu ..
No-. 2 mixed corn, bu .......
No. 2 white oats, bu ........
No. 2 rye, bu.....................
No. 2 barley, bu ...............
No. 2 white kafir, cwt .... ,
Dec. 22
1939
$1.01¾,
.56
.40½
.68
.55
1.07
Nov.30 Oct. 31
1939
1939
1
$
.84¾,
$ .87 /4
.53 ¾,
.50¼
.39
.37¼
.56
.55
.49
.52
1.10
1.05
Nov. 30
1938
$ .63¾,
.45
.26 ·
.41
.37
.71 .
Livestock
MARKETINGS
Marketings of cattle, calves, and sheep declined
seasonally during November, while receipt~ of hog;s
showed a large seasonal increase. Marketings of
cattle were little different from a year ago and were 9
per cent under the November ten-year average, but
receipts of other livestock were substantially heavier
than a year ago, with calves 14 and sheep 4 per cent
above and hogs only 3 per cent below average.
November livestock receipts at six markets:
Denver......................
Kansas City.............
Oklahoma City........
Omaha......................
St. Joseph .................
Wichita.....................
Nov.1939 ..................
Oct.1939 ...................
Nov.1938 .................
11 Mos. 1939.............
11 Mos. 1938.............
Cattle
73,036
125,159
42,504
103,909
29,572
30,625
Calves
24,356
40,476
17,756
18,745
5,693
10,389
Hogs
34,380
219,865
48,621
185,092
98,988
40,028
Sheep
215,139
113,455
19,489
98,513
78,795
12,410
537,801
626,974
404,805 117,415
951,126
487,208588,030 160,568
93,514
388,703
463,678
408,203
3,831,744 827,225 4,815,516 7,048,683
3,809,035 777,706 3,624,605 7,320,955
5
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY
PRICES
Reflecting in part rather liberal marketings for this
season of the year, livestock prices have declined further from the relatively high level to which they had
risen last September. During the past three months,
beef steer pr ices have lost about $1.00, lambs $1.50,
and hogs $3.00 a hundredweight. Cat tle and lamb
prices, which have been supported to a considerable
extent by a broad demand for stocker and feeder
animals and by the higher price for wool, still retain
part of their early Sept ember advance, but the top
price of hogs had fallen by t he second week of December to a new five-year low of $5.25 a hundredweight.
All livestock prices advanced st rongly in the third
week of December .
Top livestock prices at the Kansas City market:
Dec. 22 Nov. Oct. Nov. Nov.. Nov.
1939 1939 1939 1938 1937 1936
( In dollars per hundredw eight)
Beef steers __ ___ ______ _ 11.15 11.25 11.25 11.85 13.50 12.00
St ocker cattle _______ _ 10.00 10.00 10.35
9.25
8.50
8.00
fe eder cattle ___ ______
8.75
9.35
9.25
9.00 10.00
8.25
10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00
9.50
9.00
Calves----------··········
5.75
6.65
7.20
8.00
9.40
9.55
Hogs·-·····--···········--·
7.50
7.90
8.00
8.00
8.75
7.75
Sheep ............. ·-- --····
9.00
9.75
9.65
9.50 10.15
9.25
Lambs ..... ·-·······-·····
area of Nebraska, and a substantial increase in the
rest of that state and in New Mexico. The number of
lambs fed in Colorado will be from 15 to 20 per cent
smaller this year than l~st, and the number on feed
_in Kansas and Oklahoma is sharply lower because of
fall drought and a· lack of wheat pastures.
Ranges and pastures in the District are poor and
stock water is short in many areas. Cattle and sheep,
however, are still in fair to good condition because of
t_h e mild weather. Feed supplies generally are adequate for the greatly reduced numbers of livestock on
hand if the winter should not be too severe.
PIG CROP
The sharp upswing in hog production that had
started in the spring of 1938 continued through the
fall of 1939 but apparently has been checked. The
United States fall pig crop was 16 per cent larger and
the combined spring and fall crop was 19 per cent
larger than a year ago, but the number of sows to farr_ow next spri~g is estimated to be practically the same
as the ._n umber farrowed in the spring of 1939. Hog
production the past year was the largest in seventeen
years of record, being slightly above the ~rev_ious
record pig crop of 1933..
STOCKERS AND FEEDERS
Countryward shipments of stocker and feeder livestock from public markets, although seasonally
smaller than in t he preceding month, remained in
large volume through November. The movement
continued much above a year ago, with shipments of
cattle 5, calves 70, and sheep 8 per cent above the
November average of the past ten years.
November stocker-feeder shipments:
. Denver.. ·-··················
Kansas City.............
Omaha_·················-···
St.Joseph ..............__.
Nov. 1939......... _........
Oct. 1939...................
Nov. 1938..................
11 Mos. 1939.............
11 Mos. 1938.............
Cattle
45,680
74,032
42,876
7,773
Calves
18,732
27,362
10,563
2,531
170,361 , 59,188
257,801
72,502
161,618
35,382
1,187,429 289,867
1,088,649 161,137
H ogs
266
2,220
797
618
Sheep
168,762
35,755
21,565
16,085
3,901
4,910
3,995
47,704
41,332
242,167
446,540
187,700
1,665,911
1,472,252
Accor ding to the Department of Agriculture, devel9pments to early December indicated that cattle
·a nd lamb feeding operations in the District this winter
will be larger than seemed pr obable a month earlier
although still much below the scale of operations in
other sections of the country, particularly in eastern
Corn Belt states, where feed and water conditions are
more favorable. Cattle feeding is expected to show
some increase over last year in Corn Belt states in this
District, a small decrease in Colorado, and little change
in·other western states. Lamb feeding is now expected
to show some incr ease over last season in Wyoming,
a:n _increase of at least 10 per cent in the-Scottsbluff
Farm Income
Cash farm income in the District in October remained at a level 22 per cent above a year ago. Receipts from the sale of crops were 11 and from livestock 20 per cent larger, while Government payments
were more than two and a half times what they were
in October last year.
Department of Agriculture farm income estimates:
Oct.
10 Mos.
10 Mos.
1938
1939
1938
(In thousands of dollars)
21,846
17,268
100,235
92,499
21,334
17,856
222,123
213,020
29,330
25,263
204,864
200,655
26,408
18,858
196,558
165,686
9,865
8,200
34,640
29,103
21,133
17,882
143,982
140,634
8,609
7,826
38,914
33,049
Oct.
1939
Color ado ..................... .
Kansas .........................
Missouri.. ....................
Nebraska................... .
New Mexico ............... .
Oklahoma...................•
Wyoming ................... .
Seven states...............
United States.............
138,525
894,000
113,153
836,000
941,316
6,335,000
874,646
6,193,000
District income for the first ten months of 1939
shows an increase over 1938 of about 8 per cent. Fully
three-fifths of this increase is accounted for by larger
Government payments, which so far this year represent more than 11 per cent of total income as compared
with less than 8 :per cent last year. By states, farm
in:come is up 18 per cent in Wyoming, 8 in Colorado, 19
in ,Nebraska and New Mexico, 4 in Kansas, and 2 per
cent in Oklahoma and Missouri. Income from corn,
meat animals, and wool is generally-. above and from
wheat, cotton, eggs, _and dairy products below a ye3:r
~go.
6
MVIEW OF AGRICULTURAL AND BUSINESS CONDITIONS
Meat Packing
During November the proportion of market receipts
of cattle and calves being reshipped to ranges and
feedlots continued to be large. As a result, packers'
purchases of cattle were 14 and calves 10 per cent below the November average of the past ten years.
Packers' purchases of hogs, following four years of
abnormally low slaughter, were 11 and of sheep 5 per
cent above average. The slaughter of cattle was 8
per cent less than in November a year ago, while that
of calves was 12, hogs 68, and sheep 7 per cent larger.
November packers' purchases at six markets:
Denver......................
Kansas City...........Oklahoma City........
Omaha......................
St. Joseph .................
Wichita.....................
Cattle
15,276
47,139
18,456
60,960
21,634
13,061
Calves
4,662
11,432
11,397
8,046
3,248
6,796
Hogs
29,796
210,200
33,731
171,202
96,330
37,282
Sheep
26,931
72,513
11,991
72,410
62,236
9,895
Nov.1939 ..................
Oct.1939 ...................
Nov.1938 ..................
11 Mos. 1939.............
11 Mos. 1938.............
166,426
208,882
180,133
1,878,321
1,940,367
44,579
66,949
39,667
403,887
462,060
577,541
432,794
343,288
4,236,835
3,203,673
265,976
300,004
239,664
3,321,749
3,376,672
Cold Storage Holdings
United States cold storage stocks of pork, lard, and
poultry increased sharply during November, while
holdings of beef showed somewhat less than the usual
increase. Stocks of eggs, butter, and cheese declined
seasonally. December 1 holdings of beef were 30, pork
12, shell eggs 28, and butter 4 per cent below the average for that date during the past five years, while
stocks of poultry were 12 and lard 23 per cent above
the average.
United States cold storage holdings:
Beef, lbs.................................
Pork, lbs.................................
Lamb and mutton, lbs..........
Poultry, lbs ............................
Miscellaneous meats, lbs.....
Lard, lbs.................................
Eggs, shell, cases..................
Eggs, frozen (case equiv.).
Butter, creamery, lbs...........
Cheese, all varieties, lbs ......
Dec.1
Nov. 1 Dec.1 Aver.
1939
1939
1938
'34-'38
(In thousands of units)
66,925
49,242
52,637 95,653
332,367 272,666 299,142 378,860
4,190
3,499
3,171
4,261
127,030
79,228 118,088 113,678
68,985
57,619
54,251 75,106
88,540
68,738
74,499 71,793
1,680
3,519
1,439
2,197
2,608
2,979
2,231
2,402
89,752 128,111 160,632 93,734
112,211 114,736 127,440 113,066
Flour Milling
Southwestern flour milling operations averaged
about 68 per cent of capacity in November and the
first half of December and currently show the full
effect of heavy schedules last September when operations were at a rate of 89 per cent of capacity. November output, however, was little changed from a year
ago and was about equal to the ten-year average, while
production for the year to date is about 3 per cent
larger than last year. Although flour sales normally
are dull during the holiday and pre-inventory season
and buyers, particularly jobbers and wholesalers, are
still fairly heavily stocked from September buying,
flour sales rose considerably above the prevailing
hand-to-mouth basis toward the end of November and
early in December when flour prices advanced.
Flour output reported by the Northwestern Miller:
Nov.1939
Kansas City.....................
Salina............................... .
Wichita ............................ .
Other cities ..................... .
580,000
219,000
153,000
1,062,000
Change from
Oct.1939
Nov.1938
( In barrels)
-6,000
-92,000
-17,000
+6,000
-40,000
-2,000
-12,000
-172,000
Southwest........................ 2,014,000
-321,000
-16,000
United States*................
6,301,000 -1,081,000
-311,000
*Represents about 64 per cent of output in United States.
Petroleum
Daily average crude oil production in the District,
which by October had regained the level prevailing
prior to the shutdown of wells last August, declined
slightly during November. Output was 3 per cent
larger than in November a year ago and 4 per cent
above average, while production for the year to date
is 5 per cent less than last year.
Oil production reported by the American Petroleum
Institute and the Bureau of Mines:
Nov.1939
Oct.1939
Nov.1938
Gross D. Av. Gross D. Av. Gross D. Av.
- - ---( In thousands of barrels)
3.8
141
4.6
104
3.5
116
Colo ..................
6,284 176.1
5,466 176.0
4,724 167.6
Kans ............... .
1
.1
Nebr.................
3,637 114.1
3,103 103.4
N.Mex ............. 3,318 110.6
Okla................. 12,700 423.3 13,634 439.8 13,228 441.0
65.7
1,951
62.9
1,682
62.7
Wyo ................ .
1,971
--
--
6 States........... 23,389 779.6 24,719 797.4 22,741 758.1
U. s.................. 108,903 3,630.1 114,198 3,683.8 98,567 3,285.6
Stocks of crude petroleum produced in this District,
which are about 16 per cent under a year ago, have
shown little change the past three months at the
rather low level reached early in September. Exports
of crude oil and refined products except gasoline are
well above last year.
Coal
Bituminous coal production in the District declined
contraseasonally during November, falling 8 per cent
under a year ago. Output for the first eleven months
of 1939 was up 3 per cent from 1938.
Coal output estimated from reports of the National
Bituminous Coal Commission:
Nov.1939
Colorado...........................
Kansas and Missouri.. ... .
New Mexico.................... .
Oklahoma........................ .
Wyoming ......................... .
653,000
627,000
122,000
166,000
557,000
Six states.........................
2,125,000
United States.................. 42,835,000
Change from
Oct.1939
Nov.1938
(In tons)
-54,000
-85,000
-15,000
+47,000
-31,000
+5,000
-60,000
-39,000
-71,000
-37,000
-161,000
-3,115,000
-179,000
+6,910,000
'l
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY
Zinc and Lead
Zinc and lead production in the Tri-State district
was maintained at a high level during November but
shipments of zinc dropped sharply after the middle of
the month, owing in part to competition from Canadian ore. The zinc shipment was 6 per cent smaller
while that of lead was 13 per cent larger than in November a year ago.
November shipments from the Tri-State district:
ZINC ORE
LEAD ORE
Value
433,218
117,242
991,285
Tons
Value
1,723 $ 111,156
387
24,998
2,987
192,785
Nov.1939....................... 35,040 $ 1,541,745
Oct. 1939........................ 39,934
1,757,155
Nov. 1938....................... 37,419
1,136,798
11 Mos. 1939.................. 365,046 12,248,182
11 Mos. 1938.................. 346,093
9,664,571
5,097 $ 328,939
41912
317,042
4,495
254,136
53,864 3,060,816
46,819 2,408,030
Kansas .......................... .
Missouri. ....................... .
Oklahoma..................... .
Tons
9,846 $
2,665
22,529
Zinc ore prices, which had risen $12.50 a ton last
September, lost $4.50 of this advance in the first
week of December. Lead prices are steady.
Employment and Pay Rolls
District employment and pay rolls, after a substantial rise earlier in the fall, were little changed from
mid-October to mid-November. Employment is about
5 and pay rolls 9 per cent above a year ago.
Preliminary figures of the Department of Labor:
November 1939
per cent change from
October 1939
Employment Pay Rolls
Colorado......................................................
-2.6
+4.1
Kansas.........................................................
+0.5
-1.0
Missouri......................................................
-0.3
-1.6
Nebraska....................................................
+0.3
+4.5
New Mexico...............................................
-0.4
+0.1
Oklahoma..................................................
+0.8
-0.3
Wyoming....................................................
-0.6
-7.0
Seven states .............................................. .
-0.3
The value of November building permits issued in
reporting District cities was about 17 per cent below
that for the same month a year ago. Value of permits
for the first eleven months of the year, however, still
shows an increase of 33 per cent over last year.
November building permits in District cities:
Albuquerque, N. Mex ... .
Cheyenne, Wyo .............. .
Colorado Springs, Colo.
Denver, Colo .................. .
Hutchinson, Kans ......... .
Joplin, Mo ...................... .
Kansas City, Kans ........ .
Kansas City, Mo .............
Lincoln, Nebr ..................
Oklahoma City, Okla ... .
Omaha, Nebr..................
Pueblo, Colo ....................
Salina, Kans ...................
Shawnee, Okla ............... .
St. Joseph, Mo ............... .
Topeka, Kans ..................
Tulsa, Okla ..................... .
Wichita, Kans ................ .
1938
T2 48
33
55
753
49
25
25
191
168
151
152
65
15
18
21
67
138
208
$
30
44
512
58
15
13
124
119
172
130
47
24
5
9
39
147
227
November........................ 2,196 1,763
October............................ 2,942 2,504
Eleven months ................ 25,243 22,377
Value of construction awards in the Kansas City
area (Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and western half
of Missouri) in November was 28 per cent less than a
year ago, erasing virtually all of the previous increase
for the year 1939 over 1938. Sharply smaller awards
for nonresidential building and for public works construction account for the lag. Awards for the first
half of December were less than a third of a year ago.
Construction figures of F. W. Dodge Corporation:
Nov.
1939
119,000 $
113,000
47,000
680,000
45,000
38,000
32,000
193,000
198,000
269,000
350,000
38,000
24,000
12,000
17,000
95,000
294,000
569,000
1938
265,000
87,000
24,000
454,000
36,000
40,000
698,000
809,000
74,000
391,000
151,000
28,000
69,000
2,000
11,000
48,000
284,000
292,000
$ 3,133,000 $ 3,753,000
3,842,000
43,852,000
3,379,000
33,086,000
Lumber
Board feet sales of lumber at reporting retail yards
in the District both in November and in the first
eleven months of 1939 were little changed from a
year ago. Sales during the first five months of the
year had been much above 1938 but this gain has been
about offset by subsequent declines.
Lumber stocks at the close of November were little
different from those either a month or a year earlier.
Collections in November averaged 34.1 per cent as
compared with 29.8 per cent a year ago.
Lumber trade at 152 retail yards in the District:
-0.2
Building
Sales of lumber, board feet ....................... .
Sales of all materials, dollars ................... .
Stocks of lumber, board feet ..................... .
Outstandings, dollars ................................. .
Nov.1939
per cent change from
Oct.1939 Nov.1938
-3.6
+0.2
-2.4
+6.7
+0.2
Zero
-0.1
-4.0
Life Insurance
Life insurance sales in the District in November
were 2 per cent smaller but in the first eleven months
of 1939 more than 3 per cent larger than in 1938.
The Life Insurance Sales Research Bureau report:
~
Nov.
11 Mos. 11 Mos.
1938
1939
1938
(In thousands of dollars)
3,115
3,037
36,814
30,069
1,855
4,775
33,257
39,642
3,150
4,968
25,057
32,083
2,067
1,346
20,844
13,611
Colorado ..................................... .
Kansas ....................................... .
Missouri.. ....................................
Nebraska ................................... .
New Mexico ............................... .
Oklahoma....................................
Wyoming................................... .
Kansas City area................ 10,187 14,126 115,972 115,405
37 Eastern states ................ 299,847 301,679 3,196,445 2,807,489
Seven states...............................
United States.............................
Residential building............
Nonresidential building .... .
Public works construction.
Utility construction ........... .
ESTIMATED COST
PERMITS
1939
Change from
Nov. 1939 Oct.1939 Nov.1938
(ln thousands of dollars)
4,754
-226
-71
6i447
-163
-184
17,277
+803
-271
5,533
+440
+243
1,071
-68
+97
7,769
+151
-303
930
-198
-366
43,781
537,951
+739
-6,040
-855
-32,697
REVIEW OF AGRICULTURAL AND BUSINESS CONDITIONS
8
NATIONAL SUMMARY OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS
By the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
P£IICVIT
PUICl1ff
140·.:=--~~-----.----..----,---"""T'"""---,l40
13()
120
PRODUCTION
110
100
90
80
70 l - - - " - - - l - - - - + - - - t - - - - t - - - - - i - - - - - - t 7 0
60
Following a rapid rise after the outbreak of the European war industrial
activity continued at a high level in November and the first half of December. There was a considerable increase in distribution of commodities to
consumers while prices of basic commodities, which had been steady during
November, rose somewhat in the first two weeks of December.
. __
__,_ ____.__ ___,___ __,__ __.__
1936
1934
1937
1938
__,50
1939
Index of physical volume of production, adjusted for seasonal variation, 1923-1925 average
=100. By months, January, 1934, through November, 1939.
DEPARTMENT STORE SALES AND STOCKS
PEICDIT
l'EJICENT
110
110
100
100
90
90
80
80
10
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
Indexes of value of sales and stocks, adjusted
for seasonal variation, 1923-1925 average=l00.
By months, January, 1934, through November,
1939.
FREIGHT
CARLOADINGS
PERCDIT
POICENT
110
110
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
10
60
60
The Board's seasonally adjusted index of industrial production advanced
from 121 to 124 per cent in November, reflecting sustained activity at a
period of the year when a decline is usual. Production of durable goods,
which had advanced rapidly for several months, showed a further expansion. Record production of steel ingots continued in November and was
followed by a less than seasonal decline in the first half of December.
Automobile production increased in November, notwithstanding the fact
that plants of one important company remained closed pending settlement
of an industrial dispute. After this was settled at the end of November
assemblies rose sharply. Retail sales of new automobiles were in large
volume in November and at the end of the month dealers' stocks of new
cars apparently were smaller than at the corresponding time in other recent
years. Lumber production declined less than seasonally in November but
plate glass production, which had reached a high level in October, showed
a reduction.
Output of nondurable goods continued at a high level in November. At
cotton and woolen mills activity increased somewhat further and was close
to the record levels reached three years ago. Rayon production advanced
to new high levels but at silk mills there was a sharp decline following substantial increases earlier this fall. Output of flour and sugar declined
further from the levels reached in September while changes in activity at
shoe factories and meat-packing establishments were largely seasonal in
character.
Coal production in November declined somewhat from the high level
reached in October. Output of crude petroleum increased further and iron
ore shipments continued in exceptionally large volume until the Great
Lakes' shipping season closed in the latter part of the month.
Value of construction contracts, as reported by the F. W. Dodge Corporation, increased in November following a sharp decline in October. In
both months changes in total awards reflected principally fluctuations in
the volume of contracts for public construction. Private residential awards
declined somewhat less than seasonally in November, while awards for other
private projects showed little change. Contracts for private work, both
residential and nonresidential, were larger than a year ago, while those for
public projects were below the high level of that time when contracts under
the Public Works Administration program were being awarded in large
volume.
EMPLOYMENT
Factory employment and pay rolls continued to increase in November,
reflecting chiefly further sharp advances in industries producing steel, machinery, and other durable goods.
DISTRIBUTION
eo
50
40
40
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
Index of total loadings of revenue freight, adjusted for seasonal variation, 1923-1925 average
=100. By months, January, 1934, through November, 1939.
In November distribution of commodities to consumers increased con-:siderably. The Board's seasonally adjusted index of department store sales,
which had been around 90 in the three preceding months, advanced to 94,
a level about the same as at the peak in 1937 when prices of commodities
sold at department stores were generally somewhat higher than at present.
Freight carloadings showed less than the usual seasonal decrease from
·October to November and the Board's adjusted index increased from 80 to
82, which was only slightly under the recovery peak reached in the early
part of 1937. Shipments of ore and miscellaneous freight declined less
than is usual in November, while loadings of coal decreased more than
seasonally from the relatively high October level.
MONE.Y RATES IN NEW YORK CITY
~
COMMODITY PRICES
Prices of both industrial materials and foodstuffs advanced from the
latter part of November to the middle of December. Wheat and silk prices
rose considerably and there were smaller increases in cotton and hides.
Prices of steel scrap and nonferrous metals, on the other hand, showed
declines.
GOVERNMENT SECURITY MARKET
Prices of United States Treasury bonds advanced sharply during the
last half of November to a level not far below the all-time high point
of l~st June and remained steady during the first half of December.
.. ,
1934
1935
1936
1~37
1938
1939
For weeks ending January 6, 1934, through
December 16, · 1939.
BANK CREDIT
Total · loans and investments at reporting member banks in 101 leading
cities rose substantially during November and the first half of December,
reflecting largely purchases of new United States Government securities.
Commercial loans, which had been increasing since August, continued to
rise until the third week in November. Deposits increased further-.
@FedFRASER