The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
^edera/ reserve lan/z o/cleveland ECONOMIC REVIEW Additional copies of the ECONOMIC REVIEW may be obtained from the Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, P. O. Box 6387, Cleveland, Ohio 44101. Permission is granted to reproduce any material in this publication providing credit is given. SEPTEMBER 1971 INTERPRETING SHORT-RUN PRICE DEVELOPMENTS Theodore S. Torda The subject of inflation is currently receiving a great deal of attention, particularly in view o f the Adminis tration's recent imposition o f a 90-day freeze on wages and prices. In recent months, each new set o f figures on wholesale or consumer prices has generated widespread press coverage, including articles in business and financial publications and remarks by public officials, government and private economists, and others. Statements concern ing progress in curbing inflation, or the lack thereof, however, are not always in agreement. The reason fo r this somewhat confused situation is the absence of standard ization in the time spans used by both economists and noneconomists for computing changes or rates of change in prices. Adding to the confusion are the differences of opinion as to which price index is the best measure of inflation. Thus, interpretation o f the price picture can vary considerably, depending on which price index is used, whether changes are measured on a m onthly, quarterly, semi-annual, or annual basis, and whether data are adjusted for seasonal variation or unadjusted. ECONOMIC REVIEW This article focuses on a method o f measuring adjusted data. Seasonal factors for the CPI and price changes that has been emphasized by the two of its major groupings are listed in Table I. Bureau of Labor Statistics during the past year or For the total CPI, seasonality is generally small— so. The technique views movements in the whole i.e., the largest m onthly seasonal change called for sale price index (WPI), the consumer price index is minus 0.19 percent from December to January (CPI), and their major components in terms of (the difference between the seasonal factor of percent changes in the seasonally adjusted data, at 100.06 for December and 99.87 fo r January). The compound annual rates, over moving six-month largest seasonal variation over a six-month period intervals. Such data improve the reading of the calls for a 0.26 percent rise from January to July, price situation by identifying lead-lag relationships which makes the seasonally adjusted annual rate of in certain price series and by revealing short-run change in the CPI about 0.5 percent less than the patterns in rates of price change that otherwise unadjusted annual rate of change. would not be readily apparent in the index levels. effect occurs from July to January, when the Although certain price developments have been on seasonal factor adds about 0.5 percent to the the favorable side in recent months, this article annual rate o f change. The opposite points out that other price movements were Seasonal variations for individual price group particularly disconcerting and undoubtedly were ings, on the other hand, are greater than those for instrumental in the Administration's decision to the total CPI, but they tend to offset one another, impose a wage-price freeze.1 at least in part. For example, during July and August, seasonal patterns call for a rise in food SEASONALITY prices and a decline in prices of commodities less It is important to recognize that both wholesale and consumer prices are subject to seasonal varia food. The reverse pattern occurs in October and November (see Table I). For analytical purposes, the appropriate As shown in Table II, there are a number of method o f evaluating short-run price developments possible ways in which prices (or fo r that matter, is on a seasonally adjusted basis. any economic series subject to seasonality) can tion. In recent years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics move on a seasonally adjusted basis. As an has developed seasonal factors for a large amount illustration, seasonal factors for the food grouping of price data and has also contributed to a better of the CPI show a 0.6 percent decline from understanding of the price situation by publishing October to November 1971. If food prices decline seasonally adjusted changes in the WPI, CPI, and less than 0.6 percent, the seasonally adjusted index many of their components, in addition to un 1 The analysis in this article is confined to the tw o most 2 As a case in po int, between January 1971 and July 1971, the CPI rose 3.9 percent at a seasonally adjusted price indexes. There are, of annual rate, bu t 4 .4 percent at an unadjusted annual rate. course, other broadly based price measures, available on a The basic relationship is: the unadjusted percent change w idely follow ed m onthly quarterly basis, th at are useful in obtaining a supplemen minus the percent change called fo r by the seasonal tary factors is ap proxim ately equal to the seasonally adjusted reading of the price situation. See, for example, "A lternative GNP, percent change. (Unless otherwise stated, all references in 1 9 6 5 -1 9 7 1 ,” Survey o f Current Business, U. S. D epart Measures this article to rates o f change in prices are understood to ment of Com merce, August 1971. be based on seasonally adjusted data.) 4 of Price Change for SEPTEMBER 1971 TABLE I Consumer Price Index Seasonal Adjustm ent Factors 1971 January February March All items Food Commodities less food 9 9 .8 7 1 0 0.0 99 .7 9 9 .8 2 9 9 .8 9 9 .8 A pril May June July August Septem ber October November December 9 9 .9 6 10 0 .0 2 9 9 .9 6 1 0 0.08 1 0 0 .1 3 1 0 0.04 9 9 .8 9 9 .7 9 9 .8 10 0.2 10 0 .6 10 0.7 9 9 .9 1 0 0.0 1 0 0.0 100.1 9 9 .9 9 9 .7 100.01 100.2 9 9 .9 1 0 0 .0 4 1 0 0.0 1 0 0.4 1 0 0 .0 3 9 9 .4 10 0.5 10 0.06 9 9 .8 100.2 Source: U. S. Departm ent of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics T A B L E II Examples of How Prices Can Rise, Decline, or Show No Change, On a Seasonally Adjusted Basis (Hypothetical Combinations) Seasonally Adjusted Increases Prices decline less than seasonally Prices rise more than seasonally Prices rise counterseasonally Prices fail to register normal seasonal decline Unadjusted Percent Change - 0 .5 % +0.5 +0.5 - 0- Seasonal Factor - Seasonally Adjusted Percent Change +0 .1% 0 .6 % +0.2 +0.8 + 0 .3 + 0.3 -0 .3 -0 .3 Seasonally Adjusted Declines Prices rise less than seasonally Prices decline more than seasonally Prices decline counterseasonally Prices fail to register normal seasonal increase 0- +0.6 -0 .3 + 0.3 + 0.3 -0 .5 -0 .5 - 0- +0.5 +0.5 - 0- - 0- +0.5 -0 .5 -0 .5 - - 0.1 0.2 - 0.8 - -0 .3 Seasonally Adjusted No Changes Prices decline in line w ith normal seasonal pattern Prices rise in line w ith normal seasonal pattern No seasonal change - 0- - 0- Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland would increase. If unadjusted food prices are are more significant than index levels. The ques unchanged or actually rise, the seasonally adjusted tion then is: What is the appropriate interval that increase would, of course, be all the greater. is meaningful for analysis? There seems to be general agreement that a change in prices over one RATES OF CHANGE month is too short an interval and that one year is For purposes of evaluating the price situation, too long an interval. The choice of an appropriate business analysts would agree that rates of change time span for observing price movements, there 5 ECONOMIC REVIEW fore, is something longer than one month, but less special group o f buyers or sellers. The composite than a year. Seasonally adjusted compound annual WPI is designed to measure prices at the first rates of change over three-month periods is one significant commercial transaction (not necessarily o An alter at wholesale) for commodities such as farm prod native method, however, is preferred by Geoffrey ucts, processed foods, crude industrial materials, H. Moore, Commissioner of Labor Statistics and a and finished goods for producers, consumers, and professional economist who has made significant government5 . Despite the heterogeneous composi contributions to the analysis o f the business cycle: tion of goods included in the WPI, which are at way of viewing price developments. various stages o f the A fter some experimentation I have concluded that the rate of change over a 6-month span meets reasonably well such criteria as smoothness, simplicity, and limited distorting effects, for the CPI and most other price and wages series.4 productive process and destined for different groups o f end users, the WPI is still useful. Specific needs of businessmen and price analysts are served by price data for particu lar market sectors, industry groupings, subgroups and product classes, and individual items in the WPI. In addition, various components o f the WPI provide some indication of forthcoming changes in WHOLESALE PRICES IN GENERAL consumer prices and are used to convert certain Although the total WPI is occasionally used as a general purpose price index, it has some lim ita portions of current dollar gross national product (GNP) into constant dollars. A problem in evaluating the WPI stems from tions in the analysis of price developments. One major shortcoming is that the WPI does not relate difficulties to any particular sector of the economy or to any changes. 3 5 In the m onthly publication. Business Conditions Digest, in accurately measuring true price Small month-to-month changes in the Although services (other than general government com began pensation) account fo r over 30 percent o f total spending publishing such data in graphic form fo r the CPI and the in the econom y, prices of services purchased by busi the U. S. Departm ent of Commerce recently WPI of industrial comm odities. nesses, consumers, and government are excluded from the ^G eoffrey H. M oore, "T h e Cyclical Behavior o f Prices," W PI. Report 38 4, U. S. Departm ent of Labor, Bureau o f Labor There is evidence th at more variation exists in price Statistics, 19 71. The six-m onth changes referred to are movements than is revealed by the WPI and the individual based on seasonally adjusted data, at compound annual groupings. Studies have indicated th at effective trans rates. This method of analysis also has been emphasized actions prices are often at variance w ith published price during the past year or so in the m onthly BLS press indexes. Although official attem pts are made to collect releases on wholesale and consumer prices. Some m ention transactions prices, m any sellers allegedly report prices of the effects o f compounding may be of interest. Compounding six-m onth changes to annual rates yields (not necessarily list prices) th at are unchanged over considerable periods of tim e. W ith discounts, rebates, and the same results as simple annual rates when the changes other concessions from list prices frequently not reported, are small—i.e., less than plus 2.3 percent over a six-m onth a number of undetected price movements, both on the up period. and down side, may not be included For exam ple, a gain of 2.2 percent over six in the WPI of months is both a simple and compound annual rate of 4 .4 industrial percent; a gain of 4 .0 percent over six months is a simple Stigler and James K . Kindahl, The Behavior o f Industrial annual rate o f 8 .0 percent, but a com pound annual rate of Prices, 8.2 percent. search, 1 9 7 0 ). 6 comm odities. (N ew Y o rk: See, National fo r exam ple, George J. Bureau of Econom ic Re SEPTEMBER 1971 C h a r t 1. RATES OF CHANGE IN THE WHOLESALE PRICE INDEX AND MAJOR GROUPS Percent Percent +10 TOTAL WPI FARM PRODUCTS, PROCESSED FOODS, AND FEEDS +15 +10 + 5 0 - 5 INDUSTRIAL CO M M O D IT IES - 5 1960 Last entry: '61 62 '63 ’64 65 ’66 67 ’68 ’69 A u g u st 1971 NOTE: Six-month percent changes, seasonally adjusted compound annual rate, plotted on term inal month span. Source: U. S. D epartm ent o f Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics WPI and even moderate upward or downward Rates o f change in the WPI and its two major drifts over longer spans often have uncertain or groupings—foodstuffs and industrial commodi misleading implications. When small changes or ties—are shown in Chart 1. Analysts generally drifts in wholesale prices give way to widespread attach more significance to industrial prices than and cumulative upward movements, however, dis agricultural prices in evaluating the WPI. Industrial ruptions activity prices account fo r roughly three-fourths of the or imbalances in economic usually result—and there is little doubt that infla weight of the total WPI and have traditionally tion is underway. In general, periods of stability in been thought to be more responsive to the the WPI have tended to coincide w ith periods of business cycle and to monetary and fiscal policies stability or only moderate increases in the other than agricultural prices. This is not to imply that general price measures, such as the CPI or the wholesale prices of farm and food products are im plicit price deflator for GNP. Sharply rising unimportant; they are of much importance in wholesale prices have usually either preceded or determining factors such as farm income, the accompanied sharp increases in the other major balance of international trade in agricultural com price indexes. modities, and retail food prices, which in turn 7 ECONOMIC REVIEW greatly influence the cost of living. thereby accounting for more than three-fourths of The chart clearly reveals the erratic behavior of the 3.4 percent rise in the total WPI.) However, farm and food prices and also shows that much of the rise in agricultural prices had little to do with the short-run variation in the total WPI is a ttribut the escalation o f m ilitary activities in Vietnam, the able to swings in agricultural prices. During the acceleration in the money supply beginning in early 1960's, frequently there were periods when early prices of foodstuffs and industrial commodities Government expenditures in connection w ith V iet moved in opposite directions, which tended to nam (factors commonly cited as being sources of keep the total WPI at a virtually stable level. the inflationary wave beginning in 1965). 1965, or the sharp upswing in Federal Between 1960 and 1964, the rate o f change in the During the first half o f 1966, the economy total WPI was as low as minus 2.9 percent and as experienced the most serious period o f inflation in high as 1.8 percent over any six-month period. For almost a decade, w ith farm and food prices the most part, the rate o f change hovered around reaching their peak rate of increase (13.0 percent) the zero level; and, on balance, the total WPI in the winter and industrial prices rising at their registered an insignificant decline of 0.2 percent peak rate (3.7 percent) in mid-summer. Partly in from response to a slowdown in business activity (result 1960 to 1964. This development seems remarkable in view of the wide fluctuations that ing from restrictive monetary and fiscal policies), a occurred in farm and food prices—a range o f plus phase o f price relief began in the latter half of 6.5 percent to minus 9.5 percent—during the 1966 and extended well into the follow ing year. 1960-1964 period. Meanwhile, the rate of change (It may be recalled that the economy experienced in industrial prices stayed w ithin a very narrow a moderate decline in constant dollar GNP in the range that rarely exceeded plus or minus one first quarter of 1967—a period commonly referred percent. to as a mini-recession.) Throughout the last half of In late 1964, the economy began to emerge 1966, the rate o f increase in industrial prices began from its phase of relative price stability. During to subside; and during the first half o f 1967, the the following year and a half, there was an rate of gain averaged slightly less than one percent. intensification o f upward price pressures as eco Farm and food prices declined at a rate large nomic activity rapidly expanded and labor markets enough in early 1967 to cause the total WPI to significantly tightened. In 1965, the rate o f in decline for some months. crease in industrial prices began to edge above the As the economic expansion gathered momen one percent level, while farm and food prices rose tum around mid-1967, inflationary pressures were dramatically supply shortages renewed. Industrial prices began to rise rapidly caused by poor weather conditions and reductions once again—this time fo r a sustained period. For in livestock marketings. This is mentioned because the most recent two and a half years, the rise in the sharp rise in agricultural prices during 1965, industrial prices has continued at a fairly steady coinciding as it did w ith upward pressures on and relatively high rate. It was particularly discon industrial prices, certainly aggravated the price certing situation. (During the year ending December 1965, showed no sign of abatement in 1970, despite a prices of farm and food products rose 9.5 percent, moderate economic contraction. 8 in response to that the increase in industrial prices As economic SEPTEMBER 1971 recovery unfolded in 1971, it was even more inventories, new orders, and backlogs than on disconcerting that for the six-month period ending prices. Generally, only after firms view changes in in August 1971, industrial prices were rising at demand as something more than temporary do their fastest rate o f the entire post-1965 infla they change prices of finished goods. With some tionary episode (5.7 percent). time lag, changes in materials prices, together w ith The behavior o f farm and food prices in recent years has done little to alleviate the inflationary situation. A temporary lessening of upward pres the behavior of unit labor cost (among others), eventually influence prices of finished goods. The tendency o f materials prices to lead occur in 1970, finished goods prices is evident in Chart 2. With reflecting a sharp drop in the rate of increase in respect to tim ing and magnitude, however, the farm and food prices (including a brief period of relationships are by no means systematic and outright declines). Between January 1970 and uniform. For example, the rate of increase in January 1971, the six-month rates of change in the intermediate total 5.1 percent to 2.0 August 1966, and the rate of increase in pro percent. As of m id-1971, however, the total WPI ducers' finished goods prices turned down in sures on the total WPI declined WPI from did materials prices turned down in was again rising at a 5.0 percent rate—not signifi February 1967. More recently, gains in inter cantly less than the peak rate of 5.2 percent two mediate materials prices eased for a brief period years earlier. beginning in October 1970, and an easing in the rate of increase in producers' finished goods prices WHOLESALE PRICES began in February 1971. Except for brief periods BY STAGE OF PROCESS of outright decline in 1964 and 1967, prices of Another perspective on short-run fluctuations intermediate materials have been rising (at varying in wholesale prices, grouped according to stage of rates) since early 1963. Rates of change in process, is provided in Chart 2. A t the primary producer finished goods prices, above the zero stages of processing are crude materials less food level since m id-1963, have tended to move in the and consumer foods, which are both extremely same direction as intermediate materials prices volatile in their rates of change. In general, prices after about three to six months. Prices of con of these groupings are highly sensitive to tempo sumer finished goods less food, which display less rary changes in market conditions of supply and volatility than producer finished goods, have been demand. rising since late 1964. Somewhat less responsive to market forces, but still relatively volatile, are prices of The six-month rates of increase in prices of intermediate (or semi-finished) materials. A t the both producer finished goods and consumer final stages of processing, and even less volatile finished goods less food reached their peaks in than prices of intermediate materials, are prices of January 1971, and since then the rates of increase producer finished goods and consumer finished have moderated. By contrast, the rate of increase goods less food. Price swings in these two group in prices of crude materials less food has trended ings are buffered to some extent because short-run irregularly upward since late last year, while price changes in demand for finished goods other than increases in intermediate materials have acceler food usually have more o f an immediate impact on ated since early this year. In the six-month period 9 ECONOMIC REVIEW C h a rt 2. RATES OF CHANGE IN WHOLESALE PRICE INDEXES, BY STAGE OF PROCESS Percent Last entry: Percent A u g u st 1971 NOTE: Six-month percent changes, seasonally adjusted compound annual rate, plotted on term inal month span. Source: U . S . 10 Departm ent of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics SEPTEMBER 1971 end ing Au gust 1971, prices of i ntermed iate materials expenditure survey.7 The effect o f this factor, (accounting for more than 40 percent o f theW PI) apart from other possible shortcomings of the CPI, experienced their fastest rate of increase (8.0 is that during a period of sharply rising prices, percent) since 1950. In the absence o f the current increases in the true cost-of-living tend to be wage-price freeze, it was likely that the recently overstated somewhat by the CPI. Another c riti renewed upward pressures on materials prices cism of the CPI is that the Bureau of Labor would have precipitated a reacceleration of price Statistics does not take completely into account increases for finished goods. the effects of quality improvement and quality Wholesale prices of consumer foods, like those of the farm products and processed foods grouping deterioration fo r many types of items, particularly services. O previously discussed, are largely independent of Despite such limitations, a great deal of atten price swings in the materials and products group tion is focused on the behavior o f the CPI because ings. The behavior o f consumer food prices at the it is a major factor in the determination of wage wholesale level, of course, determines in large part and salary increases. Among other things, the CPI the behavior of food prices in retail markets. It can also influences Congressional legislation regarding be observed in Chart 3 that the contours of social security benefits (although not yet in any short-run rates of change in wholesale prices of formal, systematic way). consumer foods are similar to those traced by the Chart 3 depicts rates o f change in the CPI and food component o f the CPI, except that the its major components since 1960. Stability in the amplitudes o f the swings are much greater at the total CPI has been a rare phenomenon during the wholesale level than at the retail level. past decade or so. In fact, the last six-month period in which the CPI did not register an CONSUMER PRICES increase was June 1961. During the early 1960's, The CPI, unlike the overall WPI, does relate to a when the WPI was fluctuating around a zero rate certain sector of the economy. Specifically, the of change, the CPI was drifting upward at an CPI is designed to measure prices of goods and undisturbing and tolerable rate o f a little more services purchased by urban wage earners and than one percent per year. This upward d rift clerical workers w ith about average incomes. (The largely reflected a fairly steady and moderate rate CPI is not necessarily representative o f price of increase in prices of services. Rates of changes changes in the market baskets of items typically in prices of both food and commodities less food purchased by those who live in rural areas, retired frequently moved in opposite directions and occa persons, and high or low income groups.) sionally were negative. ^ C urrently, the weights o f the CPI are based on spending Just as the WPI has some shortcomings, so also does the CPI have limitations. The most important patterns as of 1 9 60-1 961 . g Recent studies conclude th at evidence thus far is of these is that spending patterns change overtime. insufficient As a result, the fixed market basket on which the w hether up or do w n—on the overall CPI. See Jack E. CPI is based tends to become outdated, depending on when the BLS conducted the last household to judge the direction o f probable bias— T rip le tt, "D eterm ining the Effects o f Quality on the C P I," M o n th ly Labor R eview, U . S. D epartm ent of Labor, May 1971. 11 ECONOMIC REVIEW Inflationary pressures began to accumulate in stabilized during the latter half o f 1970, the rate 1965, as food prices rose rapidly and prices of of increase in services prices began to subside. In services began to move toward higher rates of January 1971, mortgage interest rates began to fall increase. By contrast, prices of commodities less rapidly, thus reinforcing the declining rate of food, following a temporary spurt during the first increase in services prices. As of August 1971, the half of 1965, had settled back to a zero rate of rate o f increase in services prices had begun to change during the latter half of the year. By early move upward once again. 1966, however, all three major components of Despite some favorable developments on the consumer prices were contributing to accelerated consumer price fron t during the past year or so, increases in the total CPI. The rate o f increase in there have been other the CPI reached an interim peak of 4.1 percent in disturbing developments that pointed toward a recent and somewhat A pril 1966 and then subsided to a rate of 1.6 renewed percent 12 months later. The relief stemmed in CPI—until the wage-price freeze occurred. By early phase o f acceleration in the overall large part from a dramatic swing in food prices, summer 1971, there were signs that the decline in which moved from a peak 9.0 percent rate of mortgage interest rates had bottomed out and increase in March 1966 to a 2.7 percent rate of would no longer sustain a further slowdown in decrease in April 1967. The slower rise in the CPI services prices. Price indexes for many important between early 1966 and early 1967 was reinforced services, such as property insurance rates, home by brief intervals of declining rates of increase in maintenance and repair, gas and electricity, and prices of both commodities less food and services. residential telephone, have posted accelerated rates By mid-1967, the decline in food prices had run its of increase thus far in 1971. The rate of increase in course, and the CPI began a renewed phase of food prices turned up sharply beginning in Febru accelerated rises culminating in a peak 6.7 percent ary 1971, and over the following six months, food rate of increase in April 1970. Since then, the rise prices rose at a rate of 6.3 percent. Adding to the in the CPI has slowed markedly—to a 4.3 percent unfavorable price picture w ith respect to consumer rate of increase as of August 1971. prices was the previously mentioned sharp rate of The recent slowdown in consumer prices partly increase in wholesale prices of materials, which reflects the lower rate of increase in food prices undoubtedly would have contributed to a renewed during the latter half o f 1970 and the lower rate of phase of upward pressures on retail prices of increase in prices o f commodities less food during commodities less food. the first half of 1971. The trend of services prices throughout the past year or so has also helped to THE NEAR TERM moderate increases in the CPI, but this trend President Nixon's new economic program is reflects one special factor—the behavior o f home designed to break the momentum of inflation and mortgage interest rates. In the early months of last inflationary expectations, improve the balance of year, mortgage interest rates rose rapidly and were trade and the international financial position of largely responsible for the services component of the United States, create more jobs, and raise the the CPI reaching a peak rate of increase o f 9.6 nation's rate of real economic growth. The pro percent in May 1970. When mortgage interest rates gram's ultimate degree o f success in achieving 12 SEPTEMBER 1971 C h a rt 3. RATES OF CHANGE IN THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX AND MAJOR COMPONENTS Percent Last entry: Percent A u gust 1971 NOTE: Six-month percent changes, seasonally adjusted Services are unadjusted, no seasonal pattern. compound annual rate, plotted on term inal month span. Source: U. S. D epartm ent o f Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics 13 ECONOMIC REVIEW those goals is, o f course, a matter o f conjecture at probable that there w ill be an extraordinary this stage. What can be said w ith some certainty is amount of attention given to the behavior of that the 90-day freeze on wages, rents, and most prices after the freeze ends. As has been empha prices w ill result in much smaller price increases sized in this article, there are key components in than would otherwise have occurred. (A slight the wholesale and consumer price indexes that upward d rift in the price indexes seems likely.) should be examined closely to determine signifi Regardless o f what follows the 90-day freeze, price cant price movements that are sometimes con movements w ill be distorted for a few months, beginning w ith the CPI fo r August and the WPI for cealed by the behavior of the overall indexes, q September 1971.9 In other words, the economy is the Tuesday o f the week in which the 13th falls. Thus the now in a state of suppressed inflation, and the August 1971 WPI was com puted on the basis o f August official price indexes w ill provide little indication The WPI is based predom inantly on prices in effect on 10th prices, too early to be affected by the freeze effective August 15. The CPI is based on prices collected of the extent o f underlying inflationary pressures. throughout the m onth, and therefore the August CPI was In view of the new economic program, it is influenced to some exten t by the freeze. 14 SEPTEMBER 1971 RECENTLY PUBLISHED ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF CLEVELAND "The Cost of Demand Deposits, 1969—1970" August 23, 1971 "Afterm ath of the Steel Settlement" August 30, 1971 "Bank Holdings of Municipal Obligations (Fourth D istrict)" September 6, 1971 "Toward A Higher Minimum Wage-Except fo r Teenagers" September 13, 1971 "Recent Changes in Total Reserves" September 20, 1971 "Business Economists' Outlook fo r 1972" September 27, 1971 Economic Commentary is published weekly and is available w ithout charge. Requests to be added to the mailing list or for additional copies of any issue should be sent to the Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, P. O. Box 6387, Cleveland, Ohio 44101. 15
@FedFRASER