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SEPTEMBER 1949 CONTENTS Department Store S a l e s ..................... 1 Keview Industrial Activity in Selected Fourth District Counties . . . . The Outlook for Burley Tobacco Grow ers District Statistical Tables . . . . 5 8 10-11 F I N A N C E • I N D U S T R Y • A G R I C U L T U R E • TRADE FOURTH Vol. 31— No. 9 FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland . Cleveland 1, O hio Department Store Sales VARIATIONS AM O N G MAJOR DEPARTMENTS trends among the important commodity SALES in department store trade have varied con lines siderably in recent months. Sales of women’s coats and suits, for example, have lost ground appreciably since last fall’s spurt, while sales by the men’s fur nishings department have held fairly close to seasonal expectations. Such differences in performance among the major departmental lines, although by no means unusual, are significant elements in the retail situa tion which should be kept in mind whenever the over-all data on department store trade are used to indicate current trends in consumer buying. In this connection the customary practice of com paring sales for a given month with those of the cor responding period a year ago may profitably be supplemented by other ways of showing the trend. The case of major household appliances may be taken as an outstanding example. Thus, each month so far this year, sales of major household appliances by Fourth District department stores have been below those of the corresponding month last year by substan tial percentages ranging from about 20 percent to 40 percent. Yet a closer examination of the month-tomonth changes this year shows that seasonally ad justed appliance sales picked up from the previous month during March, April, May and July; and that the adjusted figure for July was 25 percent higher than the February low. There is no conflict between these two sets of facts. Both are true, so far as can be ascertained. The difference in emphasis is explainable by the fact that the year-to-year comparisons are made against a standard of high and rising appliance sales during the early part of last year, while the seasonally adjusted month-to-month comparisons can take a fresh start from a point in time after last fall’s sharp downturn in consumer buying of appliances. While the appliance situation presents an extreme example of the different pictures portrayed through the use of different standards of sales comparisons, the same principle holds to some extent with depart ment store sales of other commodity lines. Accord ingly, in order to supplement the already familiar year-to-year comparisons, a special survey has been made of month-to-month sales changes in a number of selected departments of Fourth District stores. The survey has involved the construction of departmental sales indexes, adjusted for seasonal variation. Sea sonal patterns for each department, used as adjust ment factors, have been estimated from monthly sales records covering the period since January 1941.(1 The first calendar year of the period under > review, 1941, has been used as the base period for the new departmental indexes, although that year is not assumed to be necessarily “ normal” or charac teristic of department store trade. The month-to-month trend of Fourth District appliance sales, seasonally ad justed, since January 1946 may be seen on an accompanying chart. The sharp rise in 1946 is clearly the result of the postwar revival in the pro duction of these commodities, accompanying the Household Appliances (*) Since the estimates of seasonal variation are subject to some hazards, the entire series of adjusted departmental indexes described here should be taken as first approximations. They are subject to substantial revision, as better information on recent seasonal pattemi becomes available. Page 2 Monthly Business Review release of accumulated consumer demand formerly pent up by wartime restrictions. The drop in early 1948 shown on the chart was probably the first important sign of a slackening in demand for appliances at the higher price levels which had been reached. A subsequent sales spurt in the spring of last year was probably connected in part with the war scare of that time, when rumors were circulating that the new defense program might once again bring about shortage of such civilian hard goods as appliances. The real turning point in appliance sales came last summer, according to the seasonally adjusted index shown on the chart. The drop from July 1948 through the end of the year and up to February of this year was very sharp. (The year-to-year type of comparison, in contrast, failed to show a clear indi cation of decline until the reports of October appli ance sales were published.) From March through June of this year, a moderate but genuine pickup in appliance sales, on a seasonally adjusted basis, may be noted on the chart. A further gain occurred in July, although the latter is not shown in the chart. At least part of this favorable development may be ascribed to price reductions and to promotional activities by manufacturers and retailers. Furniture and The furniture trend has shown Floor Coverings much less violent fluctuations than the appliance trend. As shown on the accompanying chart, seasonally adjusted sales of furniture and bedding by Fourth District department stores rose moderately from the middle of 1946 up to August 1948. Better availability of furniture and a rising rate of new-house completions helped support the upward movement. A considerable part of the sales gain during this period, however, was merely a reflection of rising prices. After August of last year, the sales trend was clearly downward, although the rate of decline was not as drastic as in some other departments. Thus, for the second quarter of this year, the seasonally adjusted index of furniture sales averaged 14 percent below the level of the peak third quarter of last year, as against the 34 percent drop in appliance sales registered during the same period. Sales of domestic floor coverings have followed a course midway between that of appliances and of furniture. The rise from early 1946 through August of last year was more pronounced than in furniture but less spectacular than in appliances. For the second quarter of this year, the adjusted index of floor cov erings sales averaged 22 percent below the level of the third-quarter peak last year. Except for the fact that no sustained pickup is yet observable, the trend of sales in floor coverings has followed a pattern strikingly similar in shape to that of appliances, but with more gentle rates of change on both the up swings and the downswings. September 1, 1949 Among the women’s wear group of departments, women’s and misses’ coats and suits is one of the most important, and one which shows especially marked fluctuations in sales. The “ new look” began to take hold, at least as regards suits, in the late fall of 1947, resulting in a spurt in the adjusted sales line shown on the chart toward the end of 1947. The substantial rise in this department, however, occurred in 1948. New style coats to match the suits were sold in huge quantities in October 1948, just at the time when appliances and other hard goods were losing ground. This temporary lift in coat sales helped to delay or obscure the general downtrend in department store sales which was already beginning at that time. The drop in sales of the coats-and-suits department after last October was sufficient to bring the second-quarter average this year to a level 20 percent below the third-quarter peak of last year. However, it may be noted from the chart that this year’s second quarter for the department was approxi mately as high as the average level for the entire year 1947. Women’s hosiery is an example of a department where seasonally adjusted sales so far this year (ex cept in July) have held up as well or better than last fall. In fact the second-quarter showing of this year averaged 6 percent higher than last year’s third quar ter. The peak quarter for women’s hosiery, however, was the final quarter of 1947, following a wide pro gram of introduction of new styles and colors. Hosiery sales have recently been running about 15 percent under that peak quarter in 1947. Other departments in the women’s wear group which are included in the accompanying table of seasonally adjusted indexes for the past year (but not included in the chart series) are dresses and shoes. Neither of these departments show fluctuations as wide as noted above for the coats and suits depart ment, and neither has shown very marked deteriora tion since last fall. Women's W e ar Sales of men’s clothing have followed an erratic course, as is well known. The fluctua tions have been somewhat less, however, than in women’s coats and suits, as may be seen from the accompanying chart. Necessary restocking of men’s wardrobes, especially those of veterans, pushed up the seasonally adjusted sales line during 1946 and 1947, although price increases accounted for most of the 1947 gains. A definite slackening in sales of men’s clothing occurred during 1948 until the last few months of the year, when a new rise occurred. The peak month was January of this year when clearance sales helped to stave off the drop. Since then, the net decline in sales of men’s clothing has been fairly substantial, although most of the drop Men's W e ar Monthly Business Review September 1, 1949 Page 3 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED INDEXES, SELECTED DEPARTMENTS Fourth District Departm ent Store Sales January 1 9 4 6 — June 1949 . . . the all-time high in appliance sales, seasonally ad justed, was reached in July 1948; since then there has been a sharp drop followed by a moderate pickup. . . . the uptrend in furniture sales halted in August of last year; since then there has been a clear, although not drastic, downtrend. October was followed by sharp, irregular declines up to the present. . . . hosiery sales this year have been maintained at about 1948 levels, although under the peak reached late in 1947; the postwar increases in dollar sales of hosiery were less than the average store increase in sales. Digitizedof last year. for FRASER . . . sales of men’s furnishings, on a seasonally adjusted basis, have been relatively steady since the middle of 1946. September 1, 1949 Monthly Business Review Page 4 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SALES INDEXES SELECTED DEPARTMENTS, FOURTH DISTRICT DEPARTMENT STORES (1941=100) July 1948 - July 1949 July 1948 Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. 1949 Feb. Women’s and Misses’ Coats and Suits............. 236 248 265 330 277 275 263 210 197 Women’s and Misses’ Dresses.......................... 231 207 224 226 218 223 230 223 Women’s and Children’s Shoes............................. 222 209 220 220 206 234 207 Women’s Hosiery............ 146 145 157 162 160 178 Men's Clothing................ 198 186 183 214 207 Men's Furnishings and Hats............................. 221 198 196 204 Furniture and Bedding .. 191 203 189 Domestic Floor Coverings. 226 232 Major Household Appliances..................... 326 TOTAL STORE 227 . . May June July 255 196 150 156 201 209 232 218 198 212 179 242 207 190 184 141 149 145 166 155 155 112 218 225 173 150 183 172 174 171 202 212 205 200 181 213 202 209 225 175 174 171 185 187 163 169 175 158 150 225 217 203 200 200 193 185 178 193 164 157 309 298 233 238 206 211 174 182 187 227 206 217 223 229 231 212 217 225 206 202 218 214 204 199 occurred in February and March. From April through July a leveling tendency has been observable. The second-quarter level averaged 7 percent below the third quarter of last year and 17 percent below the final quarter of last year, which was the peak quarter for that department. Adjusted sales of men’s furnishings by Fourth Dis trict department stores have shown a relatively level course since 1946, in spite of all the adventures with short and long supplies of men’s shirts, pajamas, etc. (See accompanying chart.) Special promotional devices and introduction of new styles, as for example in men’s ties, have been thought to play a consid erable role in this department as has already been noted in the case of women’s hosier}'-. Without sea sonal adjustment, however, the fluctuations in sales of the department are especially large. The typical December sales of men’s furnishings, for example, appear to be three times as high as average monthly sales of furnishings during the year. In addition to the seasonally adjusted indexes of sales from January 1946 through June 1949 shown in the accompanying charts for six selected depart ments, the sales index of total department store sales (all departments) for the same period is repeated on each chart as a benchmark for the individual depart ment.2 The accompanying table includes indexes for these six departments and three additional depart March April ments, accounting altogether for approximately onethird of the total volume of department store sales in the Fourth District. The period covered by the table is from July 1948 through July 1949. (2) T he “ all department” index is the regular monthly sales index converted to a 1941 base, and is drawn from a larger sample of stores than the departmental indexes. ANNOUNCEM ENT On August 5, 1949, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System announced a reduction in the reserves against deposits required to be main tained by member banks. Required reserves on net demand deposits were lowered from 24 percent to 22 percent for central reserve city banks, from 20 percent to 18 percent for reserve city banks, and from 14 percent to 12 percent for non-reserve city banks. These reductions became effective serially, requirements falling /2 percent weekly from August 11 through September 1 for central reserve and re serve city banks, and 1 percent semi-monthly from August 1 through August 16 for non-reserve city banks. Against time deposits, required reserves were reduced from 6 percent to 5 percent for all member banks, effective August 11 for central reserve and reserve city banks, and August 16 for non-reserve city banks. September 1, 1949 Page 5 Monthly Business Review Industrial Activity in Selected Fourth District Counties HE expansion of manufacturing activity in the United States from 1939 to 1947 actually did little in the aggregate to disperse the concentration of industry. Manufacturers tended to continue to locate and to expand in certain geographic areas offering comparative advantages, such as a trained labor sup ply, nearness to raw materials or markets, cheap power, adequate water supply and transportation, and other benefits of site. The 1947 Census of Manufactures reveals that at the time of enumeration there were 127 counties in the United States with at least 20,000 manufactur ing employees. Seventeen of those counties, or about 14 percent are located in the Fourth District. An accompanying table shows the proportion of the national aggregate contributed by the 17 most highly industrialized counties in this area, in the two most recent census years. T 17 Leading Industrial Counties in Fourth Federal Reserve District P e r c e n ta g e o f U . S. T o t a l 1947 Number of establishments................... 4.5% Number of Production Workers....... 9.0 Value Added by Manufacture........... 9.3 1939 Number of Another measure of manufacturing Production activity at different times or places is a W orkers comparison of the number of production workers. Such data give a picture of magnitudes of industrial enterprise, although this LEADING MANUFACTURING COUNTIES IN THE FOURTH DISTRICT-1947 5.4% 8.5 9.8 While the number of production workers increased more rapidly in these 17 counties than in the rest of the country, between 1939 and 1947, the number of establishments and the value added by manufac ture failed to match the nationwide rate. A more comprehensive table which appears on pages 6 and 7 gives more detail regarding changes among counties between censuses not only with re spect to value added, but also in regard to number of establishments, number of workers, and other rele vant data. The nature of the dominant industry or industries within a county helps to explain the rate of growth. For example, Franklin county’s gain of ten places in national rank in value added by manufacture is associated with the over-all increase in the production of automobiles, construction and mining equipment, aircraft, and roller bearings, all of which bulk large in its output. Lucas county, Ohio, and Mercer coun ty, Pennsylvania, both rose by considerably greater proportions than the nation as a whole. The growth of the automobile industry is closely associated with N OTE: This is the second article based on the 1947 Census of Manu factures. The first article appeared in the July Monthly Business Review and dealt with the changes that took place among Fourth District states. the increase in Lucas county, where automobile vehicles, auto electrical equipment, spark plugs, and other motor equipment feature the industrial picture. Mercer’s growth is completely tied to the expanding demand for metal and metal products, including electrical machinery and supplies, fabricated iron and steel products and railroad cars. Lorain and Mahoning counties, dominated by steel works, blast furnaces and rolling mills dropped ten or more places in rank, as did Washington county in Pennsylvania, producer of wire products, tin, and iron and steel products. ta-.vl Under $200 E& a Milli»n Under 30.0M Under 175 . . . seventeen counties in the Fourth District each had over 20,000 manufacturing employees in 1947. Page 6 September 1, 1949 Monthly Business Review M an u factu rin g Activity in the Leading C Value Added COUNTY Millions of dollars 1947 1939 17 Leading 4th District Counties............ $6,914 $2,401 Cuyahoga, Ohio................................ Allegheny, Penn................................. Hamilton, Ohio................................. Montgomery, Ohio........................... 1,488 1,143 744 488 Summit, Ohio.................................... Lucas, Ohio........................................ Franklin, Ohio................................... Stark, Ohio......................................... % Increase Production Workers Rank in U. S. Number (thousands) % Incre 1947 1939 1947 1939 188 — — 1,076 662 63 489 427 253 162 204 167 194 201 6 8 15 26 6 7 15 28 212 184 101 78 126 124 67 39 68 48 5C 98 460 391 286 280 167 112 91 108 176 250 215 160 29 34 42 45 27 38 52 43 75 57 43 47 40 31 26 29 87 8£ 66 62 Westmoreland, Penn......................... Beaver, Penn...................................... Mahoning, Ohio................................ Erie, Penn........................................... 234 233 232 225 83 89 99 72 182 163 135 211 56 57 58 62 59 53 48 65 42 39 42 38 27 27 33 19 56 4( 26 9: Trumbull, Ohio................................. Butler, Ohio........................................ Lorain, Ohio...................................... Mercer, Penn..................................... Washington, Penn............................. 214 141 132 122 102 69 46 57 33 45 209 205 130 270 128 65 89 98 106 118 70 94 82 113 99 35 23 25 17 19 19 15 15 11 15 81 5f 6( 6! 3( U. S. Total.................................................. 127 Industrial Counties............................ 74,364 49,896 24,487 16,164 204 209 — — 11,918 7,767 7,808 5,148 5: 5: gauge tends to underrate areas where industry is most highly mechanized and overrate those relying to a greater extent on manual labor. During 1947, the 17 most industrialized counties in the Fourth Federal Reserve District employed 1,076,000 production workers while in 1939 these same counties employed 662,000 workers, marking a rise of 63 percent over the period. Meanwhile, the number of production workers in the 127 most indus trialized counties in the nation increased only 52 per cent. In the country as a whole, this figure rose from 7.8 million to 11.9 million production workers or 53 percent. Not only was the total for the Fourth District counties well ahead of the national totals, but eleven of the 17 counties were ahead of the national rate of increase. The largest amounts of increase were registered in Allegheny and Cuyahoga counties, where the iron and steel industry is pre dominant. Number of A third indicator of industrial Business activity is the number of business Establishments establishments. A close relationship exists between the number of firms, or business population, and the general level of busi ness activity as measured by gross national product. 1 ~ Both the number and size of establishments is related to the nature of the industry. In 1939, there were 173,802 manufacturing estab lishments in the United States, while in 1947 there were 240,801, a rise of 39 percent. At the same time, the number of establishments in the 127 most indus trialized counties increased by only 29 percent. These figures indicate a greater spawning of concerns in the less industrialized counties of the country. The seventeen Fourth District counties had only 17 per cent more manufacturing concerns in 1947 than in 1939, a notably smaller gain than elsewhere in the United States. The table shows the number of manu facturers in the 17 Fourth District counties, and compares their rates of growth with the national rate. Size of The large increase in number of Establishment workers and the smaller gain in number of manufacturing units in the Fourth District points to an increase in size of establishment. Average number of production work ers per establishment rose from 71 to 98, or 38 per cent in these 17 counties. Large size inheres in the nature of the principal in dustries of the region. Beaver county topped the list with 213 workers per plant in 1947 while Trumbull September 1, 1949 Page 7 Monthly Business Review es o f the Fourth District, 1947 a n d 1939 Nu mber of £ 9tablishme nts • 7 1939 % Increase 1947 Rank in U. S. Average No. Production Workers per Establishment 1939 % 1947 Increase Value Added per Production Worker 1947 1939 % Increase Avg. Wage per Production Worker 1947 Waees as % of Value Added 1947 51 9,376 17 — 98 71 38 $6,424 $3,629 77 $2,891 45 63 79 63 95 2,576 1,571 1,525 461 28 1 2 29 7 19 20 53 67 116 65 131 49 79 44 85 37 47 48 54 7,027 6,200 7,385 6,254 3,887 3,440 3,773 4,119 81 80 96 52 2,952 2,830 2,532 3,035 42 46 34 49 82 27 79 85 341 499 521 328 41 26 30 17 61 50 45 74 156 90 63 122 118 62 49 88 32 45 29 39 6,113 6,887 6,671 5,934 4,144 3,632 3,551 3,734 48 90 88 59 2,444 2,954 40 43 2,689 45 12 83 58 68 243 165 210 309 28 11 23 19 83 105 91 77 135 213 164 104 109 162 158 62 24 31 4 68 5,569 5,992 5,482 5,903 3,117 3,315 2,979 3,741 79 81 84 58 2,810 2,995 2,891 2,719 50 50 53 46 76 53 61 16 51 141 130 123 102 131 25 18 31 14 15 111 117 116 123 118 198 148 153 147 125 136 112 120 106 110 46 32 28 39 14 6,141 6,257 5,350 7,105 5,376 3,599 3,171 3,872 3,037 3,076 71 97 38 134 75 2,853 2,929 2,821 3,041 2,762 46 47 53 43 51 01 34 173,802 111,975 39 29 — — 49 55 45 46 9 20 6,240 6,539 3,125 3,205 100 104 2,538 2,712 41 41 Source: Bureau of the Census ranked second with 198. The location in those two counties of rolling mills and blast furnaces goes far toward accounting for this size since the primary metals industry commonly has large units. Mahoning county, third-ranking in size of establishment, had about three-fifths of its workers concentrated in three big steel companies. Thirteen of the seventeen counties averaged over 100 production workers per manufacturing estab lishment. This scale of operation is in sharp contrast to the average for the country which was only 45 workers in 1939 and 49 in 1947. These particular counties have even larger concerns than neighboring counties in their own states, since Ohio averages 80 and Pennsylvania 73 production workers per estab lishment, despite the fact that Ohio ranks second and Pennsylvania third among the 48 states. Not only were Fourth District manufacturing busi nesses among the largest in the United States, but they also continued to grow somewhat more rapidly. The average size in the nation increased 9 percent over the eight-year period. Establishments in all but one of the 17 counties, however, increased at a greater rate, scoring expansions of up to 68 percent. Only Mahoning County, already employing an av erage of 158 workers per plant in 1939, increased * * * Not Available less than the country’s average of 9 percent. It is an interesting fact that the largest of the Fourth District counties by value added or number of production workers rank well toward the bottom of the listing by size of establishment. Value Added Per Value added per production Production W orker worker is a rough measure of the economic output of labor. It is related to the kind of industry as well as aver age level of skill, degree of mechanization and the efficiency of production. The table compares the value added per production worker in the 17 lead ing Fourth District counties, the 127 industrial counties and the United States as a whole. In 1947 the value added per production worker in the 17 leading Fourth District counties was only 3 percent above the national average, while in 1939 it had been 16 percent above. From 1939 to 1947 the value added per worker doubled throughout the country, but in the Fourth District counties it grew by only 77 percent. In ten of the 17 counties in 1947 the figure was lower than the national average. Of these 17, only Mercer, Pennsylvania, gained in the value added by manufacture per worker at a greater rate than the nation as a whole. The falling off of (C ontinued on Page 12) Page 8 Monthly Business Review September 1, 1949 The Outlook for Burley Tobacco Growers HIS year’s proceeds from the sale of burley tobacco— Kentucky’s biggest cash crop - will — probably fall considerably short of last year’s figure, but the aggregate will still be about three and a half times as much as the prewar average. That repre sents a wider margin over the earlier period than that enjoyed by agriculture in general. Farm cash receipts for the country as a whole are averaging less than three times the prewar level for all commodi ties and about two and a half times prewar for all crops other than tobacco. This is especially significant for Kentucky, which grows about two-thirds of the nation’s supply of bur ley, which in turn provides about one-third of the annual cash income of farmers in that state, and a much larger percentage in the major tobacco-producing counties. It could hardly be expected that the income from burley tobacco would again be as high as the $277 million indicated for 1948 on the accompanying chart. In that outstanding year growers enjoyed the exceptional situation of a near-record crop and a near-record price. The crop of 603 million pounds was only two percent under the all-time high estab lished in 1946 and the average price of 46.0 cents per pound was only five percent lower than the record average price received for the high-quality 1947 crop. T Large Production of burley tobacco has exceeded Supply consumption in four of the last five years. Although the total of domestic consumption and exports of burley is now the greatest on record and two percent above the previous high of 1946, this disappearance is equivalent to but nine-tenths of last year’s production. As a result, the carry-over of stocks in the warehouses of dealers and manufac turers will also break the record this year. When the current marketing year for burley tobacco ends with this month, the carry-over will be well above the previous record established two years ago. This, com bined with the large crop now being harvested and cured, makes a total supply larger than that of any previous year. When it is considered that year-end stocks nor mally average about one and a half times as large as production, it becomes evident that carry-over constitutes an important part of the available supply and consequently plays a large part in price determi nation. This situation is peculiar to tobacco among agricultural commodities. A short crop, as in 1947 for instance, does not bring as high a price as it would if the annual production represented nearly all of the supply. Manufacturers buy tobacco two to three years in advance of the time it will be con FARM CASH RECEIPTS FROM BURLEY TOBACCO 1939 ■1948 . . . the unusual combination of attractive prices and high production resulted in peak farm incomes from burley sales in recent years. The 1949 figure will fall below the record high of last year but it will fall within the post war range. Source: U. S. Department of Agriculture. verted into consumer products, chiefly because the leaf must be aged about that long. The excess of existing supplies over these requirements and what ever leeway manufacturers have in the length of aging tend to moderate price fluctuations. While the new crop is estimated to be smaller than the last one, it probably is substantially larger than the current rate of disappearance. Emboldened by the high yields and good prices of last year, growers generally attempted to plant the entire allotted acre ages this spring and to grow more tobacco on each acre than ever. The first objective was achieved with the aid of a combination of circumstances, including an abundance of healthy plants to set out, good weather, and sufficient labor. The percentage of allotments which was actually planted is considerably higher than in previous years. In an effort to achieve a record yield per allotted acre burley farmers used more fertilizer than ever. They were encouraged by the fact that, due to im proved cultural practices and favorable weather, yield per acre in each of the past five years has been at least 25 percent above the previous high. Yields last year were more than 50 percent above the peak of 1940. That exceptional record was probably not equaled this year; it is estimated, however, that yield per acre is the second largest on record, having missed the high mark perhaps by around seven percent. An accompanying chart expresses annual supply in terms of the number of years that would be required to consume it at the current rate. In the past, the September 1, 1949 year-to-year movement of price has usually been in the direction opposite to changes in supply. Since the “years’ supply” has now risen to the highest point since 1940, it is expected that the average price for the present crop will be lower than last year’s price. The 1948 burley crop sold at a season-average price three and a half cents above the support level. This year the support price will be about two cents lower and the average price may be closer to the support “ floor” . Assuming the most recent (August 1) estimate of the size of the crop and assuming last year’s support price as the average selling price, the total cash income will be more than ten percent lower than that of a year ago. Prfce The indicated shrinkage of burley income Supports from its recent high level is cushioned by Government price supports as well as by a great and stable demand for tobacco products. Pres ent legislation provides that tobacco prices shall be sup ported as long as quotas are in effect at 90 percent of September 15 parity (a price calculated to give the producer of a pound of tobacco the same real purchasing power that a pound would have given him during a favorable past period). On eligible tobacco for which no bid above the support level is received the grower may take a non-recourse Gov ernment loan. Title to the loan tobacco passes to the growers’ cooperative, which contracts with commer cial facilities for its drying, packing and storing. After the association has ultimately sold all of the tobacco acquired in a season, receipts in excess of loans and costs are prorated to the growers who placed the tobacco under loan. Failure to comply with acreage limitations, however, not only excludes a grower from price-support loans, but it also im poses a penalty on all tobacco sales by the noncompliant grower. The penalty is computed only on the excess planting of the producer, but the re sultant is pro-rated over all of his marketings. The acreage allotments themselves constitute a fundamental price-supporting measure in that they provide a means of alleviating the effect of surpluses. Tobacco is the only commodity for which marketing quotas (converted into acreage allotments) were continuously in effect throughout the war. The present situation leads to the likelihood of a substantial reduction in allotments for all growers except those having allotments of less than one acre, which legally cannot be reduced. The national mar keting quota for the 1950 crop may be proclaimed by the Secretary of Agriculture at any time between October 1 and December 1 of this year. To become effective, the quota must be ratified within 30 days by two-thirds of the producers. It is expected that the proclamation will be issued around the first of November and that the referendum will be held in the latter part of that month. The last preceding referendum, which committed growers for the three crop years 1947-49, was approved by nearly 98 per cent of the burley growers. With lower acreages anticipated, the total income from next year’s crop may be expected to be some what lower than this year’s income even though prices remain high. It will not be as low, however, as it would have been in the absence of the price(Continued on Page 12) BURLEY TOBACCO BURLEY TOBACCO Supply and Disappearance 1939 -1948 M IL L IO N S Page 9 Monthly Business Review Price Received by Farmers and Years’ Supply on Hand 1939 -1948 M IL L IO N S C E N TS PER P O UND 60[ k! |- SUPPLY . . . consumption has been rising for a long time, but in the past five years supply has been increasing more rapidly. Source: U. S. Department of Agriculture. 1 Weight at time of original sale. . . . supply relative to consumption is higher than last year, and consequently the average price of burley is expected to be somewhat lower, and closer to the sup port level. 2 Year beginning October 1. Source: • Estimated. * Estimated. U. S. Department of Agriculture. Page 10 Monthly Business Review September 1, 1949 D E P A R T M E N T S TO R E TRADE S T A T IS T I C S Sales by Departments— July 1949 P ercentage Changes from a Y e a r A g o (F ourth D is tr ic t R ep orting Stores) (C om p iled A ugust 26, and released for publication August 29) T o y s and G a m e s .................................................................................................................. R a d ios , Phonographs and T e le v is io n ............................................................................ M en ’s Furnishings and H a t s ............................................................................................. Aprons, H ousedresses and U niform s.............................................................................. N eck w ear and S ca rfs.......................................................................................................... Department Store Inventories— July 31, 1949 +11 -j+ — — 5 1 2 2 Percentage Changes from a Y e a r A g o (F ourth D istrict Reporting Stores) (C om p iled August 31, and released for publication Septem ber 1) G ift S h o p ................................................................................................................................. China and G lassw are.................................................................................................+ 7 Inexpensive D resses (W om en ’s and M isses’ ) ........................................................... .. R a d io s, Phonographs and T e le v isio n ............................................................................. Silverw are and C lo ck s ......................................................................................................... -f-15 -f 2 -j- 2 -j- 1 B louses, Skirts and Sportsw ear....................................................................................... — 3 B o o k s and S ta tion ery ......................................................................................................... — 5 T o ile t A rticles and D rug Sundries................................................................................. — 10 C orsets and Brassieres........................................................................................................ — 10 G ift S h o p .................................................................................................................................— 11 W oolen D ress G o o d s .............................................................................................................— 0— A r t N eed lew ork ...........................................................................................................o— Shoes (W om en ’s and C h ildren ’s ) ..................................................................................... — 1 C orsets and Brassieres.........................................................................................................— 1 B e tte r D resses (W om en ’s a n d M isse s’ ) ......................................................................... — 2 Fine Jew elry and W a t c h e s .............................................................................................. — 11 U nderwear, Slips and N egligees......................................................................................— 11 H ou sew ares.............................................................................................................................— 11 R e cord s, Sh eet M usic and P ia n os...................................................................................— 11 N o tio n s.....................................................................................................................................— 12 B ook s and S ta tion ery .......................................................................................................... — 2 C ostum e J e w e lr y ...................................................................................................................— 2 N o tio n s........................................................................................................................................... 2 C oa ts and Suits (W om en’ s a n d M is s e s ’ ) ....................................................................... — 3 H an dba gs and Sm all L ea th er G o o d s .............................................................................— 3 Shoes (M en’ s and B o y s ’ ) ................................................................................................... — 12 Infants’ W e a r.......................................................................................................................... — 12 C otton W a sh G o o d s ............................................................................................................ — 13 D raperies, Curtains, e t c ..................................................................................................... — 14 C ostum e J e w e lr y .................................................................................................................. — 14 B e tte r D resses (W om en ’s and M isses’ ) ........................................................................ — 14 M en ’s C lo th in g ...................................................................................................................... — 14 Inexpensive D resses (W om en ’s a n d M isses’ ) ...............................................................— 15 C hina and G lassw are............................ ............................................................................. — 15 A r t N eed lew ork .................................................................................................................... — 16 B o y s ’ W e a r .............................................................................................................................. — 16 Blank ets and C o m fo rte rs...................................................................................................— 16 G irls’ W e a r..............................................................................................................................— 17 Shoes (W om en ’s and C h ildren ’s ) .................................................................................... — 17 Sporting G ood s and C a m era s.......................................................................................... — 17 H an dkerch iefs........................................................................................................................— 17 H andbags and Sm all L ea th er G o o d s ............................................................................ — 18 Silverw are and C lo ck s ........................................................................................................ — 18 Linens and T o w e ls ................................................................................................................ — 19 Juniors’ C oa ts, Suits and D resses....................................................................................— 20 M illin e ry .................................................................................................................................. — 20 Luggage.................................................................................................................................... — 20 La m p s and S h a d es._ .............................................................................................................— 21 Furniture and B ed d in g........................................................................................................ — 21 C a n d y ....................................................................................................................................... — 21 G lov es (W om en ’ s and C h ildren’s ) .................................................................................. — 22 D om estics, Muslins and Sheetings..................................................................................— 22 H o s ie r y .................................................................................................................................... — 23 Silks, V e lv e ts and S y n th e tics.......................................................................................... — 28 D om estic F loor C ov erin gs................................................................................................ — 31 W oolen D ress G o o d s ............................................................................................................— 32 L a ces and T rim m in g s .. ...................................................................................................... — 34 M a jor H ousehold A ppliances............................................................................................ — 34 C oa ts and Suits (W om en 's and M isses’ ) .......................................................................— 35 F u r s ........................................................................................................................................... — 54 G RO U P TOTALS M en ’ s and B o y s ’ W e a r ........................................................................................................ — 7 B A S E M E N T S T O R E T O T A L .................................................................................... — 11 S m a llW a re s............................................................................................................................— 12 M iscellaneous M erchandise D ept s ................................................................................. — 13 G R A N D T O T A L (reporting sto re s)............................................................................ — 15 W om en ’s Apparel and A ccessories.................................................................................. — 16 M A I N S T O R E T O T A L .................................................................................................. — 16 P iece G o o d s & H ousehold T extiles................................................................................ — 20 Housefurnishings................................................................................................................... — 21 Sales b y F ou rth D istrict departm ent stores declined during July and were below year-ago lev els in alm ost all departm ents. T h e sum m er slackness was som ew hat m ore pronounced than usual, although it w as less severe than percentage drops in dolla r sales w ould in d ica te, since July th is year h ad one less trading d a y than June, and one less than year-ago Ju ly. A llow in g for th e difference in trading d a y s, as well as norm al seasonal v ariation , to ta l sales in th e D istrict w ere abou t 3 % below June and 12% b elow a year ago. O nly three departm ents reported July sales a b o v e year-ago levels. Sales o f radios, phonographs and television sh ow ed v e ry large gains o v er June and w ere 5% a b o v e a year a go, thus sharply reversing th e unfavorable trend o f recent m onths. Sales of toys and gam es w ere up 11% from a year ago in line w ith th e consistent yearto-y ea r gains reported b y th is departm ent so far this year. Sales o f m en’ s furnish ings and hats, up 1 % from last year, also sh ow ed continued strength after allow ance for seasonal factors. Trailing th e m en’s furnishings departm ent were th e oth er departm ents in th e m en’ s and b o y s ’ w ear group. Sales o f m en’ s clothing, for exam ple, w ere dow n 14% from last year, although on a seasonally adju sted basis th is departm ent has leveled o ff during th e past four m on th s. A ltogeth er, th e 7% decline from a year ago aver aged b y th e m en ’s and b o y s ’ w ear group w as th e sm allest y ear-to-year drop for any departm ental group. Sales b y th e w om en ’s apparel and accessories group averaged 16% below last year. Coats and suits, w h ich n orm ally m o v e slow ly in Ju ly, sh ow ed th e expected drop from June, and th e ground lost b y th is departm ent in recent m onths was re fle cte d in July sales 35% below a year ago, or a five-year low for th e m on th . Sales of dresses, although large in dolla r volu m e, w ere not up to seasonal expectations and w ere 15% under year-ago levels. Sales b y th e housefurnishings group, in spite o f th e success in radios and television alread y m entioned, averaged 21% b elow last year. Sales of furniture and bedding, dow n 21%, and of dom estic floor coverings, dow n 31%, sh ow ed continuing weakness. Sales o f m ajor household appliances, although 34% below a year ago, increased from th e June lev el in th e face of th e usual seasonal decline, thus continuing th e recov ery trend observ a b le in th is line in v e ry recent m on th s. _ A ll com parisons refer t o dolla r volu m e w ith ou t adjustm ent for price changes. T o y s and G a m e s................................................................................................................... — Shoes (M en ’s and B o y s ’ ) ............................................................................ ........................— L a ces and T rim m in g s.......................................................................................................... — Blouses, Skirts and Sportsw ear........................................................................................— L uggage.................................................................................................................................... — 3 3 4 5 5 T o ile t A rticles and D rug Sundries.................................................................................. — 5 M en ’s C lo th in g ....................................................................................................................... — 6 C a n d y ....................................................................................................................................... — 7 Sporting G o o d s and C a m era s........................................................................................... — 8 Fine Jew elry and W a tc h e s ................................................................................................. — 8 Draperies, Curtains, e t c ...................................................................................................... — 9 Juniors’ C oa ts, Suits and D resses.................................................................................... — 10 Lam ps and S h a d e s............................................................................................................... — 10 Underwear, Slips and N egligees...................................................................................... — 10 B o y s ’ W e a r ............................................................................................................................. — 10 G irls’ W e a r .............................................................................................................................— 10 M en ’s Furnishings and H a ts .............................................................................................. — 11 N eck w ear and Scarfs........................................................................................................... .— 11 Aprons, Housedresses and U n iform s.............................................................................. — 11 H ousew ares............................................................................................................................. .— 13 G lo v e s (W om en’s and C h ildren’ s ) .................................................................................. — 13 Furniture and B ed d in g ........................................................................................................ — 13 M illin e ry ................................................................................................................................... — 13 Linens and T o w e ls................................................................................................................ — 13 Silks, V e lv e ts and S y n th etics...........................................................................................— 14 B lankets and C om forters................................................................................................... — 16 Furs............................................................................................................................................ — 17 H andkerchiefs......................... _ ............................................................................................. — 17 R e co rd s, Sheet M usic and P ia n o s................................................................................... — 17 D om estic F loor C ov erin gs.................................................................................................— 18 C o tto n W ash G o o d s ............................................................................................................. — 19 Infants' W e a r ...._ ................ . ................................................................................................ — 20 D om estics, M uslins, S h eetin gs.........................................................................................— 20 H o s ie r y ......................................................................................................................................— 23 M a jo r H ousehold A ppliances.............................................................................................— 24 G RO U P TOTALS S m a llW a re s ............................................................................................................................ — 3 M iscellaneous M erchandise D e p t’s ..................................................................................— 6 B A S E M E N T S T O R E T O T A L .................................................................................... — 8 M en ’s and B o y s ’ W e a r ........................................................................................................ — 8 M A I N S T O R E T O T A L .................................................................................................. — 9 W o m e n ’ s Apparel and A ccessories...................................................................................— 9 G R A N D T O T A L (rep ortin g stores)............................................................................ — 9 Housefurnishings.................................................................................................................. — 12 Piece G ood s and H ousehold T extiles............................................................................ — 14 Inventories o f Fou rth D istrict departm ent stores during July decreased sharply in spite o f rela tively slow sales. On a seasonally adju sted basis, stock s at m onth end w ere 8 % below th e previous m on th , and at th e low est level in nearly tw o years. T h e to ta l inventory o f reporting D istrict stores w as 9 % below a year ago. S tock s of housefurnishings w ere reduced substantially during July and at th e close of th e m on th w ere 12 % b elow a year ago. Inventories o f m ajor household appliances, w here th e sales report w as rela tiv ely favorable, w ere 24% below th e year-ago level. S tock s of dom estic floor coverings and of furniture and bedding were dow n 18% and 13%_respectively. T w o departm ents in th e group, h ow ev er, sh ow ed year-to-year rises in in ven tory. S to ck s o f radios, phonographs and television, al though th e y declined during July along w ith a b risk recov ery in sales, closed th e m on th a t a level 2 % a b o v e a year ago. Inventories of china and glassware w ere 7% a b o v e a year ago. S tock s of th e w om en’ s w ear group averaged 9 % b elow a year ago. A t th e extrem e, hosiery stock s were dow n 23% from last year, a lthough little reduction occurred in June. In contrast, stock s of inexpensive dresses w ere uj> 2% from a year ago, al though th e y were low er than a t th e end o f June. Inventories of w om en’s and m isses’ coats and suits, w here sales h a v e been lagging, were on ly 3 % below a year ago and were substantially higher than a t th e end of th e previous m on th . S tock s of th e m en’s and b o y s ’ w ear group w ere 8 % b elow year ago levels. A m on g these departm ents th e largest year-to-year decline, am ounting t o 11 % , as w ell as th e sharpest drop from June occurred in m en’ s furnishings and hats, w here th e July sales report was favorable. S tock s of m en’ s clothing w ere reduced m o d era tely and were 6 % below year-ago levels. Stock s o f piece goods and household textiles, dow n 14%, sh ow ed th e largest year-to-year decline o f an y group, although th e change from June w as sm all. In contrast, stock s of sm all w ares were on ly 3% below a year ago. A ll com parisons refer t o dolla r value o f in ven tory at retail, w ith ou t adjustm ent for price change. September 1, 1949 Monthly Business Review Page 11 F I N A N C I A L A N D O TH ER BUSINESS S TA T IS TI C S Time Deposits Bank Debits*— July 1949 (at 58 B anks in 12 F ou rth D is trict Cities) (In thousands o f dollars) (C om p iled August 11, and released for publication August 13) (C om p iled August 9, and released for publication August 10) A v era g e W e e k ly C hange During: C it y and N um ber T im e D eposits J u ly June July o f Banks________ July 27, 1949__________ 1949 1949 1948 C levelan d (4 )........... $ 895,539,000 P ittsburgh ( 11 ) 459.587,000 Cincinnati ( 8 ) .......... . 182,892,000 A k ron ( 3 ) .................. . 103,319,000 — $452,000 — 5,000 — 152,000 + 42,000 T o le d o ( 4 ) ................. . C olum bus ( 3 ) ........... You ngstow n ( 3 ) . . , , D a y ton (3 )................ . 103,058,000 83.059.000 64.270.000 46,137,000 — 48,000 — 112,000 — 82,000 — 100,000 Canton (5 )................. E rie (4 )...................... W heeling ( 5 ) ............. . Lexington (5 )............ . 43.080.000 40.134.000 27,791,000 10,705,000 T O T A L — 12 C ities. .$2,059,571,000 — + — — 32,000 24,000 67,000 4,000 — $988,000 -$ 688,000 107.000 163.000 40,000 + + 96.000 34.000 91.000 63.000 57,000 7.000 + 2.000 8,000 — $1,080,000 — $1,133,000 — 5,000 — 174,000 — 89,000 35.000 + + + + + 111,000 40.000 4,000 65.000 15.000 10.000 19,000 — $1,340,000 D uring th e m on th o f July, t im e deposits a t 58 F ou rth D istrict b anks declined at th e rate o f $988,000 per w eek, or a bou t 0.2 percent for th e four-w eek period. T h is w as th e fourth consecutive m on th of contraction since tim e deposits reach ed an alltim e h ig h a t th e end of M arch . T h e July shrinkage, h ow ever, w as sm aller than a year ago, and is som ew h a t seasonal in th a t som e o f th e reduction represents w ith draw als o f accrued interest. D espite th is series of nom inal declines, tim e deposits in a ll 12 cities com b in ed are s till som e 2 percent larger than a t th e sam e tim e last year. . O f th e 58 reporting banks, 21 reported gains in tim e deposits o ve r th e four-w eek intervals. Individual Cities 25 F ou rth D istrict M e m b e r Banks (C om p iled August 18, and released for publication August 19) - 10 . 1 % — 9.6 — 21.0 + 9.4% — 1.4 + 0.3 — 12.1 + 2 7 .7 + 2.5 — 16.2 — 0.1 + 3 7 .6 + 6.7 — 4.9 T y p e o f C red it O utstanding a t E n d of M o . C om pa red W ith M o. A go Y r. Ago T o t a l consum er instalm ent credit Personal instalm ent cash loans R epair and m odernization loans D irect retail instalm ent loans (a) A u to m o b ile (b ) O th er R e ta il instalm ent paper purchased (a) A u to m o b ile (b ) O ther + 2 .0 % + 1 .4 + 2.0 + 2 0 .3 % + 3.1 + 21.0 + 3 .9 — 3.2 — 9.9 + 3 .3 T O T A L ................ 2 5 4 2 3 3 4 M id d le to w n ........... P o rts m o u th ........... Springfield............. S teu ben ville.......... 2 3 3 1 2 4 3 4 5 6 78 • Penna. . Penna. G reen sburg............ .Penna. K ittanning.............. .Penna. .Penna. .Penna. .Penna. •W. V a . $6,146,907 T O T A L ................ 6.3% $20,543,815 - 6 .6 % — 23.3 — 13.2 — 3.1 — 11.2 — 14.5 — 4.6 — 19.6 — 13.3 + 0.7 658,153 301,612 2,447,024 5,313,441 1,628,010 632,458 1,003,439 433,229 248,323 6,076,609 - 5.8% - 1 -6 % — 6 .8 % — 14.0 — 8.2 — 2.9 — 3.5 — 9.9 — 5.9 — 9.7 — 10.1 + 9.6 $18,742,298 - - 4.9% — 5.8 — 18.4 — 5.8 — 8.0 — 10.4 — 8.4 — 7.4 — 10.8 — 3.0 — 14.3 — 4.8 — 11.2 — 9.9 - 11.1 — 6.0 — 6.7 — 10.9 — 11.9 — 2.6 + 2.6 37,537 50,606 16,096 35,554 44,586 16,350 35,340 28,902 18,626 44,573 20,709 34,654 24,299 26,440 6,540 19,422 8,933 9,916 17,836 27,392 59,534 - 9.7% — 8.7 — 26.1 — 7.0 — 7.8 — 18.1 — 3.4 — 10.6 — 14.9 — 9.1 — 17.7 — 13.2 — 11.5 — 16.5 — 11.7 — 16.2 — 20.9 — 11.2 — 19.2 — 6.5 — 4.3 $ 116,844 161,092 50,098 109,747 122,871 51,479 111,832 90,766 58,516 135,518 63,808 107,103 74,316 85,079 19,565 62,113 29,563 33,585 54,763 80,320 182,539 $ 583,845 - 11 . 0 % $ 1,801,517 1 . 1% ♦ D ebits t o a ll deposit accounts except interbank balances. + 1.2 T E N L A R G E S T C EN TE R S A ll bu t one o f th e largest centers registered declines from year ago levels, rang ing from 3% in Cleveland t o 23% in Canton. Pittsburgh was th e on ly center to record a le v e l o f de b its in excess o f la s t y ear, although only b y 1% . In th e three-m onth period coverin g M a y , June and July, Pittsburgh, Cleveland and C olum bus reported th e greatest year t o year im p rov em en t or th e sm allest year t o year declines. T W E N T Y -O N E SM ALLER C E N TE R S W ith o u t exception all o f th e 21 sm aller centers reported a July d e b it volu m e be lo w th a t of a year ago. T h e m a jo rity o f th e centers sh ow ed declines of betw een 3 % a nd 13%, w hile in Elyria, shrinkage w as 26% . F o r t h e past three m on th s c o m bin ed, o n ly Wheeling exceeded year-ago d e b it volu m e, and then on ly b y a nom inal am ount. + 7 2 .2 + 1 4 .6 + 3 8 .2 T h e volum e o f consum er instalm ent c re d it outstanding a t t h e 25 reporting m e m ber banks o f th is D is trict adva n ced for th e fifth successive m o n th t o a new record le vel, 2 percent a b o v e th e previous peak registered in June, and m ore than 20 per cent a b o v e a year ago. T h e greatest expansion in dolla r volu m e again occurred in au to m o b ile loans (b o th direct and paper purchased) w h ich , in a cc o r d w ith th e continuing high v o l um e o f a u tom obile sales in th e D is tr ic t, exceeded th e postwar h igh o f th e previous m on th b y o v er 3 percent. O utstanding d e b t incurred for repair and m odernization projects also sh ow ed an appreciable increase. W h ile direct loans used for th e pur chase o f furniture, household appliances and oth er nonautom otive products were sligh tly larger than in June, th e am ount o f such loans outstanding is still noticea bly b elow a year ago when buying o f such articles w as m ore a c tiv e than a t present. In all m ajor classifications, a som ew h a t sm aller volum e o f new loans w as m ade than in June, when th e am ount of borrow ing alm ost equaled th e record M a y figure. M eanw hile th e rate o f repaym ent o f existing loans (exclusive o f purchased paper) dropped noticea bly from th e sta b le lev el o f th e three previous m on th s, t o under 11 percent, w h ich w as on ly slig h tly a b o v e t h e lo w rate o f 10J^ percent e stablish ed in January and F ebru ary. 113 21 O T H E R C E N T E R S 9 C o v in gton -N ew p ort. . . K y . $ 6 L exington ................. . . . K y . 3 E ly r ia ...................... 3 - % Change from Y ear A go D uring July, a drop o f a lm o st h alf a b illion dolla rs brought th e v o lu m e o f d ebits t o deposit accounts (oth er than interbank a ccounts) in 31 Fou rth D istrict cities t o $6,731,000,000. T h is represented an appreciable decline o f o v e r 6 % from th e year ago level, and eviden ced for th e first tim e in th e postw ar period a noticeable shrink age in d ebits a t th e ten larger centers from th e com parable m on th o f th e preceding year. D e b its a t th e 21 sm aller centers w ere low er than in 1948 for th e fourth succes siv e m o n th , in th is instance b y 11 % . M eanw hile, th e volum e o f deposits continued t o expand, contribu ting t o a rate o f turnover slow er than in th e preceding m o n th and in July last year. Changes in Consum er Instalment C red it July 1949 N ew Loans M a d e C om pa red W ith M o. Ago Y r. A go 191 A L L 31 C E N T E R S $6,730,752 10 L A R G E S T C E N T E R S : 5 221,761 5 C a n ton .................... . . . O h io 97,501 16 779,796 10 1,788,309 7 549,174 4 211,452 6 T o le d o ..................... .. .O h io 367,998 4 Y ou n gstow n .......... 138,823 6 • Penna. 83,465 51 P ittsbu rgh .............. .Penna. 1,908,628 3 M on th s E n ded Ju ly , 1949 1 In four oth er cities, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Canton, and Lexington, t h e Ju ly con traction w as sm aller than in th e sam e m o n th o f 1948. % Change from Y ear A go Ju ly 1949 00 . Akron and Erie w ere th e on ly t w o cities o f th e tw e lve areas c o v e re d , in w h ich tim e deposits ran counter t o th e trend during Ju ly. In b o th cities th e trend was upward in relation t o th a t of a year earlier, ana represented a reversal o f th e June decline. N o . of R ep orting Banks Indexes of Department Store Sales and Stocks D a ily A v era g e for 1935-1939 = 100 A d ju sted for_ Seasonal V ariation June July Ju ly 1949 1949 1948 SA LE S: A k ron ( 6 ) ......................... .............. Canton ( 5 ) ....................... .............. Cincinnati ( 8 ) ................. .............. C levelan d (10)................ .............. Colum bus ( 5 ) .................. .............. E rie ( 3 ) . . . ' . .................... P ittsbu rg h ( 8 ) ................ .............. Springfield (3 )................ .............. T o le d o ( 6 ) ........................ .............. W heelin g ( 6 ) .................... You ngstow n (3 ).............. .............. D is tr ic t (96).................... .............. STOCKS: .............. 294 333 299 247 331 W ith o u t Seasonal A djustm ent June Tuly July 1949 1949 1948 295 274 283 328 290 263 312 312 266 267 270 228 305 281 330 405 341 282 368 347 284r 307 311 270r 349r 313 265 236 182 229 215 174 224 214 228 249 258r 228 253 283 280 247 280 230 200 266 315 270 250 300 284 258 259 251 287 265 277 341 263 229 295 271 204 249 239 205 266 244 244 257 210 r— R e v is e d . B a ck figures: R e v is e d index series for period from January 1946 through M a y 1949 are show n on page 7 o f th e A u gust 1949 issue. (F ebruary 1949 index for T o le d o , as show n in t h a t issue, should be co rrected t o read 273 instead o f 263.) Page 12 Monthly Business Review The Outlook for Burley Tobacco G row ers (Continued from Page 9) support program. Many farmers will attempt to offset the acreage reduction, as they have in the past, by raising more tobacco per acre. The exemption of the very small growers, moreover, means a great deal to many individual farmers. Nearly three-fifths of all burley producers have allotments of one acre or less and account for a fourth of the total acreage. The demand for tobacco products is extremely stable as compared with general economic fluctuations. Moreover, the American people are smoking two packs of cigarettes for each one they smoked ten years ago. They are smoking even slightly more than at any time last year. The importance of cigarettes to the burley tobacco region inheres in the fact that about threefifths of the annual production of burley goes into cigarette manufacture. Considerable quantities also are used in pipe smoking tobacco, the consumption of which tends to move counter to general economic activity and thus to compensate partially for those changes that do occur in cigarette consumption. Ac cording to the Department of Agriculture, “ any sig nificant rise in unemployment and any sharp falling off of income would probably result in a larger con sumption of smoking tobacco than in recent years as smoking tobacco generally costs the user less than the equivalent in cigarettes or cigars.” During the war many people in foreign lands acquired a preference for American cigarettes, pre Stable Demand September 1, 1949 sumably because of the burley content. This pref erence has caused a considerable increase in exports, both of cigarettes and of burley tobacco. The peak for cigarettes was actually reached last year, but the slight drop since then has been insignificant in com parison with the recent increase in domestic con sumption. Exports of unmanufactured burley in the current marketing year have been second only to those of the 1946-47 season. Although the world shortage of dollar exchange has clouded the export outlook, the immediate prospect is for continued strong foreign markets for American tobacco. Industrial A ctivity (Continued from Page 7) value added per worker reflects the typical low levels and slow rise from 1939-1947 in the prices of pri mary metals, fabricated metals, and electrical ma chinery. W a ge s It is not possible at this time to compare Paid wages paid in 1947 with 1939 because of the redefinition of manufacturing activity in 1947 to exclude retail bakeries, repair shops and other nonmanufacturing activities included in 1939. The 1939 census wage data are being retabulated and will be released at a later date. In 1947 the 17 counties in the Fourth District paid an average wage of $2,891 to all production workers, 14 percent above the country-wide average of $2,538. Wages paid in Fourth District counties ranged from $2,444 in Summit to $3,041 in Mercer. All but one of the 17 were above the national average.
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