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BuomeMKevieuJ MONTHLY - F E D E R A L R E S E R V E BANK of C L E V E L A N D *mmmmm IN THIS ISSUE The Great Lakes O re Fleet Ocfo&ert t9 5 5 . Eyes are on Commodity Prices . . . 2 . . . 7 GREAT LAKES SHIPMENTS OF L A K E SUPERIOR IRON ORE Duluth! B P o r t of Origin # P o r t of Destination Data from Lake Superior Iron Ore Association The Great Lakes Ore Fleet the opening of the tons of iron ore to make a ton of pig iron and first locks at Sault Ste. Marie provided about one-half ton of pig iron plus an equal the connecting link between Lake Superioramount of steel scrap to make a ton of steel. and the rest of the Great Lakes that broughtThus, feeding a steel industry capable of into being the greatest fresh water fleet in gobbling up more than 125 million net tons the world. of iron ore in a year is no small task. During the past century, mines clustered The accompanying chart shows the relative around the head of Lake Superior have sup plied the bulk of the iron ore consumed by the nation’s steel mills. Practically all of the D O M E ST IC SH IPM E N T S A N D iron ore mined in the Mesabi and other Lake IM PORTS OF IR O N ORE Superior ranges is carried at least part of the way to the steel mills by the Great Lakes ore fleet, moving from the head of the lakes Millions of through the Soo Canal to ports on Lake Mich Gross Tons igan and Lake Erie. The volume of this lake ore traffic is more than twice that of the total tonnage handled by the Panama Canal. The Soo’s centennial year finds a modern ized ore fleet at work on the Great Lakes. It also finds the Lake Superior region’s relative importance as an iron we supplier diminish ing as imports of foreign ore mount at a rapid rate. But, reserves of iron ore in the Lake Superior ranges will keep the ore fleet busy on the customary lake routes in the foreseeable future. A h u n d re d years' a g o The Ore Fleet's Job The Great Lakes ore fleet literally moves a small mountain of ore down the lakes each year. Generally speaking, it takes about 12A 2 Source of data: U. S. Bureau of Mines. 1955 estimate by Fed. Res. Bank of Cleveland. importance of the Lake Superior district(1) in supplying this country’s appetite for iron ore. About two-thirds of the nation’s iron ore requirements are being met currently by U. S. mines around Lake Superior. Other U. S. mines scattered over a dozen states supply nearly one-sixth of the iron ore consumed and the remainder of the nation’s needs is imported. Prior to 1954, the proportion sup plied by the Lake Superior district was above three-fourths, but imports of foreign ores have increased sharply in recent years. This year, steel mills should receive around 128 million gross tons of iron ore from do mestic and foreign mines. Of this total, about 82 million tons will be loaded into vessels at Upper Lake docks. In addition, a small amount of Lake Superior iron ore will go to blast furnaces by all-rail movement. The boatloads of ore will be distributed among ports on the Lower Lakes in the pat tern shown by the map on the front cover, with about one-third of the ore destined for Lake Michigan ports and two-thirds going to Lake Erie ports.(2) At some Lower Lake ports, the ore will be transshipped to inland steel mills. At other ports, such as Cleveland and Lorain, part of the ore will be unloaded di rectly into the stockpiles of local steel mills. Growth of the Ore Fleet The job of transporting millions of tons of iron ore down the lakes each year is done by 314 bulk freighters comprising the Great Lakes ore fleet. Bulk freighters can be used in the lake coal and grain trades too, of course. But, of the 260 American vessels nor mally considered ore boats (the balance of the ore fleet is Canadian), all but 6 are in commission, with 254 American vessels cur rently active in the ore trade. The lake ore freighter has a rather utili tarian appearance. From the side, its elon gated, cigar-like shape is relieved only by the pilot house and deck crew’s quarters at the bow, and its stack, engine room, after crew’s quarters, and galley at the stem. The long row of hatches stretching amidships covers a spacious hold capable of carrying more than 20,000 tons of payload in the newer vessels. The modern ore boat evolved in its present form at about the turn of the century. The great Mesabi range, with its stillunmined billions of tons of iron ore, was opened in 1892 and rapidly developed. The Mesabi was linked with Lake Superior by rail and modern dock facilities were built at Duluth, Superior and Two Harbors. By 1890, steel steamers had clearly demon strated their superiority over wooden sail boats as being faster, safer, and able to carry greater payloads more economically. The trend towards steel and steam for all lake shipping was under way. Then, in the late ’nineties, George H. Hulett developed a stiff legged unloader, revolutionizing ore handling at Lower Lake ports. A boatload of ore could be emptied in a matter of hours, where days had been required formerly. Boats were de signed to accommodate the new equipment. The prototype of the modem ore boat emerged. It was made of steel and powered by steam. It was long and broad of beam, enabling it to carry about 11,000 net tons of ore through the shallow portions of the St. Marys and Detroit Rivers. Its cargo was easily accessible through large hatches amid ships so it could be quickly unloaded by the newly developed Hulett equipment. (1) The Lake Superior district encompasses mines in Min nesota, Wisconsin and Upper Michigan. Shipments from Canadian ranges in Ontario also come down the lakes, as indicated on the cover, but are included among imports in this chart. (2) The map on the cover depicts the flow of iron ore from the Lake Superior district in 1954 by port of origin and port of destination. The relative amount of ore coming from, or going to, any one port this year will not vary enough to affect significantly the proportions shown. 3 The speedy development of the Mesabi long and 70 feet across the beam and is capa range made its rich ore available in quantity. ble of carrying about 22,000 net tons of ore. A growing nation clamored for steel, and out The average vessel built between 1900 and put doubled in the first five years of the cen 1909, on the other hand, measured 500 by 54 tury. To bring the Mesabi ore to the steel cen feet and carried close to 11,000 net tons each ters around the Lower Lakes, more than 125 trip. new boats were built between 1900 and 1909. The average carrying capacity and horse power of the U. S. ore fleet according to the Most of the ore boats built at the turn of the century are still in use. In fact, about half of the ore vessels in operation today were GREAT LAKES ORE VESSELS built prior to 1910 in the biggest round of According to Year Built boat-building on the lakes. By comparison, the recent round of expansion and modern ization completed in 1954 appears small at first glance. The top panel of the trio of bar charts gives the distribution of ships of United States registry in the Great Lakes ore fleet, according to the decade in which the vessels were originally constructed or last rebuilt. The size of the ore boats has grown steadily larger over the years, as bigger locks have been built at the Sault falls on the St. Marys River and as river channels have been deep ened. The first two locks at the Soo were only Thousands of 350 feet long, 70 feet wide and 9 feet deep, Short Tons AVERAGE CARGO C A P A C IT Y * or more than adequate by pre-Civil War 20 standards. In contrast, the Davis and Sabin Locks opened in 1914 and 1919, respectively, each measured 1,350 feet in length, 80 feet in I O width and 24y2 feet in depth. The MacArthur Lock, completed at the height of World War II, was not quite so long but had a depth of 30 feet. Ore vessels launched since 1950 are, natu of rally, the biggest and fastest in the lake fleet. Thousands Horsepower 8 They can carry about twice as much ore as their 50-year-old prototypes, make the round trip to the head of the lakes and back in 5 days as against 7 days for the older boats, make about 45 trips a season instead of the 30 trips made by the old timers. In short, one new ore boat can just about do the work of three old ones each shipping season. Thus, the 15 new boats added to the lakes ore fleet since 1950 are roughly the equivalent of 45 boats * Rebuilt ships excluded built at the beginning of the century. Co.; U. S. Army, The typical modem ore carrier is 647 feet Source of data: M.CorpsA. ofHanna Engineers. .mill Before 1900 4 19001909 19101919 19201929 19301939 19401949 19501954 year the boats were built(3) is illustrated in the lower two panels of the accompanying trio of charts. The modernization of the ore fleet during the past few years has not been limited to the launching of 15 new ships. Since 1950, 21 vessels have been rebuilt, increasing further the ore fleet’s speed and cargo capacity. Five of the rebuilt vessels are ocean-going freight ers, modified for the lake ore trade. These vessels were towed to the lakes through the Mississippi River, the Illinois Waterway and the Chicago Sanitary Ship Canal. New sec tions were installed between the bow and stern making their over-all length in excess of 600 feet. The speed, cargo capacity, and gen eral performance of these converted ocean going freighters rank them amongst the new est boats built specifically for the lake ore trade. The round of expansion and modernization completed by the lake ore carriers last year expanded substantially the fleet’s ability to move millions of tons of iron ore down the lakes. New single-trip cargo records have been set since 1950, as the new boats joined the fleet and the average cargo loaded at Upper Lake docks has risen nearly one-sixth. (See chart.) This year, lower water levels on the lakes, plus the use of a greater number of older vessels in the ore trade, caused the average cargo to decline slightly. Canadian shipyards have also been busy adding to their fleet and have set some rec ords of their own.(4) Rising Imports and Future Lake Ore Trade The rising tide of imports from new ore fields abroad, coupled with the dwindling (3) The median cargo capacity or horsepower is used here as the average. Rebuilt ships are excluded from the average since they are more prone to have the characteristics of the ships in the year they were originally constructed than those of the year in which they were rebuilt. (4) The Canadian grain-carrier T. R. McLagan is the longest steamer on the Great Lakes and measures 715 feet in over-all length. The biggest boat on the lakes is the American ore carrier George M. Humphrey, launched at Lorain last October. Although the Humphrey is 5 feet shorter, its 75-foot breadth is five feet greater than that of the McLagan. IR O N ORE C4RGO LO ADED AT U. 5. UPPER LAKE D O C K S Source of data: Lake Carriers Association. 1955 estimate by Fed. Res. Bank of Cleveland. reserves of high-grade open pit ores in the Lake Superior region might, at first thought, seem to throw a shadow over the probable future of the lake ore fleet. Such is not the case. The biggest vote of confidence given the future ore trade on the Great Lakes was cast by steel companies and fleet owners them selves when they undertook the last round o£ shipbuilding. It is true that imports of iron ore have risen sharply in the past several years. Fol lowing World War II, the steel industry launched a broad search for new sources of iron ore. Substantial deposits were discovered and developed in Liberia and Peru. These mines currently ship several million tons of ore a year to U. S. mills. The most extensive fields were uncovered in Labrador and Vene zuela, however, and it is the large tonnages of ore beginning to arrive from these develop ments that have pushed imports up so rapidly. Most of this ore goes to East and Gulf Coast mills and has not affected the lake ore trade as yet. However, a large Southern 5 Ohio mill will use about 30 percent Labrador ore this year, most of it coming in by rail from the Atlantic seaboard. An estimated 15 million gross tons of iron ore will come from Labrador and Venezuela mines this year. Several million tons of Canadian ore will also come down the lakes. Thus, imports from Canada and Venezuela may be about 18 million tons this year, or two-thirds more than the total quantity im ported in any year prior to 1954. The accom panying chart illustrates the sharp upturn in imports that has occurred in the past two years. (To get the proper perspective on the present relation of imports to total supply, see the earlier chart on total iron ore ship ments.) Foreign sources will probably supply an increasingly larger proportion of U. S. needs in the foreseeable future. In the recent search for iron ore, the Lake Superior region, which had supplied the country for so many years, was not neglected. In fact, the biggest “ find” was made in this area by developing a way to process the bilIRON ORE IM PORTED FOR CONSUMPTION IN U. 5. Source of data: TJ. S. Bureau of Mines. 1955 estimate by Fed. Res. Bank of Cleveland. 6 lions of tons of low-grade taconite and jasper remaining in the area. In the Mesabi range, only about ten per cent of the accessible formation was high grade open pit ore. The balance was taconite, an extremely hard rock containing about onethird iron. With so much high-grade ore available in the range, taconite was virtually ignored for years. The iron particles in it were so fine and so thinly spread throughout the ore that solving the difficult mining and processing problems presented by this tough rock did not appear worthwhile. To make a long and interesting story short, an economically feasible way to mine and process taconite into a form usable in blast furnaces was found in 1948. To date, half a billion dollars have been spent or committed to develop taconite mines and processing plants in the eastern end of the Mesabi range. Entire new towns are being built near the ore fields and along Lake Superior, north of Duluth. Shipments of taconite pellets down the lakes this year are expected to total sev eral million tons. Iron concentrates are also being recovered from the jasper deposits of the Marquette range in Northern Michigan. Jasper is simi lar to taconite but has a slightly higher iron content. Taconite concentrates cost more than natu ral ore, since it takes roughly three tons of taconite to get one ton of concentrates. But, the concentrated ore contains at least 62.5 percent iron as compared with about 51 per cent iron in natural Lake Superior ores. By 1957, some 7 to 8 million tons of iron concentrates should be coming down the lakes. The capacity of present processing mills is expandable to about 27 million tons a year. The potential is an abundant supply of concentrates for many years to come. Other types of low-grade ore may be found in the Lake Superior ranges. Tentative estimates of the potential supply of low-grade iron ores in the Mesabi and Marquette ranges alone exceed 5 billion tons. (Continued on Page 11) Eyes are on Commodity Prices price trends are bound to be Spot Market Prices very much in the public eye for some Usually, one of the first indications of an time to come, as the business boom and reincrease in general inflationary pressures is a lated developments have generated new upmarked rise in the prices of basic commodi ward pressures on prices and as public policy ties, as businessmen and traders attempt to is directed toward heading off any new infla increase their commodity holdings in order tionary threat. to profit from further (anticipated) price Industrial prices, which had been rising increases and to insure against shortages slowly since the business recovery began in which might interrupt normal productive the fall of 1954, quickened their advance processes. after the steel and auto wage settlements in The Bureau of Labor Statistics has devel July of this year. The industrial component1 oped an index of 22 spot market commodities of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Wholesale especially selected because of their sensitivity Price Index rose two percent between June to economic and conditions. These and September to reach an all-time record commodities areforces traded on open markets and high. Prices of building materials have been organized exchanges, where prices are rising at an accelerated rate since June, re primarily determined by thetheir interaction of inforced by a definite upward movement competitive supply and demand. The com among most metal products, lumber, paper ponents of the index are all primary com and rubber products. At least some further modities which are close to the initial produc price increases seem inevitable as the new tion stage and contain a minimum of fixed wage pattern works its way through the econ cost rigidities built into their prices. It is for omy and as record industrial demand con reason that the 22 commodities, although tinues to press against supplies in those this they are not a representative cross section of “ bottleneck” areas of the economy where the 2,000-item wholesale price index, usually output is not readily expandable. are quick to reflect shifts in underlying Meantime, prices of farm products and of supply-demand conditions of the type most foodstuffs have followed irregular paths, with likely to cause important fluctuations in the a general downward trend apparently still more broadly based wholesale price index. predominating. The broad price averages — The charts and discussion which follow are whether measured by the Wholesale Price addressed almost entirely to the Spot Market Index, the Consumer Price Index, or the Price Index. The fact that the latter is Spot Market Price Index — have so far con weighted more heavily on the side of farm tinued to show little movement away from products and foodstuffs than is the general wholesale price index should not be overlooked. the horizontal. Have sensitive commodity prices been ris ing lately? As a matter of fact they have not 1 All commodities other than farm products and foods. C ommodity 7 Spot market prices have been stablllwed during the past two and one-half years by the offsetting price movements of industrial and agricultural commodities. In the recent period of booming business activ ity, foodstuffs have declined in price while metals and rubber prices have soared to levels exceeded only during the Korean War emergency. The prices of industrial materials originating on farms have followed a middle course, with very little fluctu ation. Latest entry: September 8 been rising, at least up to press time. The spot market price index, like the wholesale and consumer prices indexes, has been un usually stable for more than two and one-half years. However, the over-all steadiness of the index has been deceptive. The accompanying charts show how the stability of the 22commodity index since early 1953 has actu ally been based upon the offsetting fluctua tions of its two principal component groups — foodstuffs and industrial raw materials.2 Industrial Materials and Foodstuffs At the beginning of this period of stability — in 1953 and early 1954 — rising foodstuffs prices were balanced by declines among most industrial raw materials. Falling prices for raw materials during the industrial boom of 1953 may seem anomalous. Rising industrial activity usually exerts an upward pressure on raw material prices, but in 1953 another influence — reaction to the scare buying and stockpiling of the Korean War period — was having an even stronger effect. Industrial raw materials prices declined steadily from early 1951 through the end of 1953. The business recession beginning in the fall of 1953 helped carry the industrials’ price decline into 1954. The foodstuffs component of the 22-commodity index had strengthened during 1953 and early 1954 primarily because of spectac ular price advances by hogs, lard and cocoa beans. Excessive cutbacks in hog production after a market glut in 1952 laid the ground work for the upward price spirals in hogs and lard. Cocoa prices soared when European consumption increased sharply (due to de rationing and prosperity) at a time when plant diseases, adverse weather conditions 2 The 22 commodities making up the Bureau of Labor Statis tics’ index of spot primary market prices are as follows: butter, cocoa beans, corn, cottonseed oil, hogs, lard, steers, sugar, wheat, burlap, copper scrap, cotton, hides, lead scrap, print cloth, rosin, rubber, steel scrap, tallow, tin, wool tops, and zinc. The first 9 items are classified as foodstuffs and the remaining 13 as industrial raw materials. It should be noted that 5 of the raw industrials are metals. The 5 agriculturebased industrial raw materials which hare been charted are cotton, hides, rosin, tallow and wool. A recent 1953-54 base period was used in constructing all of the charts in order to facilitate the comparison of relative price movements. and political policies were holding down out put in West Africa’s principal producing area. The pattern of price movements now domi nating the spot market commodity index had its origin in the spring of 1954. At that time, the relative positions of foodstuffs and raw industrials were reversed; declining food prices began offsetting a rising trend in the prices of industrial raw materials. At first, the upturn in industrial materials prices appeared artificial. War scares in the Far East (Indo-China and Formosa) bol stered the prices of imported commodities for several months. In addition, a decision by the U. S. Government to substantially expand its purchases of domestically produced minerals for the national stockpile gave the prices of nonferrous metals an initial lift, which was followed by continuous support. The war scares proved to be temporary, but the climb in the prices of industrial raw materials did not. The decline in industrial production in this country ended in the spring of 1954 and business activity in Europe continued the expansion that had persisted throughout the brief recession here. Metals and Rubber As indicated by the accompanying charts, the price movements of metals and rubber have dominated the rising trend of the indus trial raw materials component of the 22commodity index. With the government ab sorbing surplus stocks that had accumulated during the brief recession, metals prices3 strengthened during mid-1954 and quickly responded to the improved industrial demand in the fall of that year. Lead and zinc benefited most from govern ment stockpile purchases. Primarily as a result of the government program, lead and zinc prices rose gradually from lows of 12.5c and 9.8c per pound, respectively, in early March 1954 to 15c and 12c per pound in 3 Represented in the 22-commodity index by copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin and zinc. 9 January 1955. Thereafter, with the govern ment absorbing successively smaller offerings, expanding industrial demand pushed zinc to 13.5c per pound and lead to 15.5c per pound in September of this year. The purchase by the U. S. Government of 100,000 tons of surplus Chilean copper in the spring of 1954 set the stage for a gradual rise in the market price of that metal. A series of strikes against copper producers both here and abroad together with climbing industrial consumption had created a shortage of copper by the late spring of 1955. Before an expanding world output could restore market equilibrium, a new strike against U. S. copper producers took place in July, with the result that copper prices soared to an all-time peak of more than 50c per pound on the world market. Stimulated by record demand from the auto and construction industries, the steel industry chewed up increasing quantities of scrap during late 1954 and 1955, while greatly expanded exports cut into scrap sup plies. Steel scrap prices, like those of most other metals, climbed along with the rising pace of business activity. Natural rubber prices have more than doubled since the first quarter of 1954. In creased buying by Iron Curtain countries co incided with the record demand generated by the booming auto industries in Europe and the United States. Because rubber trees take several years to mature (and the capacity of existing synthetic rubber factories is limited), the world supply of rubber cannot be readily increased on short notice. Increased demand is quickly reflected in higher prices. Agricultural Prices Further examination of the “ industrial raw materials” group reveals that those raw materials produced in the farm sector of the economy have not participated in the rising price trend evidenced by metals and rubber. Cotton, hides, rosin, tallow and wool tops together, as shown in an accompanying chart, have tended to follow a middle course. Ex 10 panding industrial demand for these com modities in 1955 has been tempered by the existence of abundant supplies and competi tion from substitute materials. Abundant supplies are not something pe culiar to the agriculture-based industrial raw materials. They are currently an overriding characteristic of almost all the commodities produced in the farm sector of the economy. Agricultural abundance has been manifested in the 22-commodity index primarily by the steady decline in foodstuffs prices which has been in progress since April 1954. A variety of factors lie behind the price weakness in the farm commodity group. For a precise understanding, each product needs to be interpreted both on its individual merits and in terms of the more complex inter relationships among the various farm prod ucts. To generalize, however, the principal underlying factor is the failure of supplies to adjust down to a normal peacetime level of demand. Wheat, cotton, corn, and other stor able commodities have backed up into inven tory rather than moving into consumption. Land forced from production of such surplus products has found its way into production of other products creating still additional ex cesses. Abundant feed supplies at reduced prices have tended, furthermore, to spur the production of hogs and cattle and conse quently their by-products, lard, tallow and hides. Wool and butter, as alluded to previ ously, have fallen victim to competition from lower priced substitutes and, in the case of wool, a cheaper source through foreign sup pliers. The flexible farm price support program in several cases has resulted in the lowering of support levels; consequently, downward price pressures have been expressed in lower mar ket prices. So far as the agricultural outlook is con cerned, the accumulation of stocks held by the Commodity Credit Corporation will in effect provide a rather specific price ceiling on many farm products for some time to come, as these stocks will move onto the free market whenever prices rise much above sup port levels. On the industrial side, the question is whether the present pressures can be con tained. Whether higher wage costs will be fully passed all the way forward to the com modities and services purchased by consumers depends largely upon the intensity of com petitive pressures at the various levels of industry and trade. Although the retail ORE prices of most services have risen steadily during recent years, many cost increases bear ing on manufactured commodities have been absorbed by shrinking producer and distribu tor margins. In the final analysis, the strength of consumer demand and availability of pur chasing power, both in the form of personal income and credit, will be important factors influencing the prices of manufactured com modities at retail. FLEET {Continued from Page 6) The development at Steep Rock, in Ontario, also deserves mention in any round-up of Lake Superior iron ore. Here, rivers were diverted and a lake was drained in order to get at the rich iron ore deposits lying under water. Steep Rock ore is beginning to move over the docks at Port Arthur in appreciable tonnage with shipments expected to reach 2,200,000 tons this year. The future of the Lake Superior region as a major supplier of the country’s iron ore needs seems secure. Over two-thirds of the nation’s steel-making capacity is clustered around the Lower Lakes in such centers as Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, Lorain, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Youngstown and Wheeling. Five large steel companies in this area have re cently announced major expansions which will increase their future demand for iron ore. The lake ore fleet, as the connecting link between the Lake Superior supply and the Lower Lakes demand, will continue to prosper. At this time, it is virtually impossible to assay the impact of the opening of the St. Lawrence Seaway (scheduled for 1959) upon the present pattern of the lake ore trade. The Seaway will make it possible to bring large shipments of rich Labrador ore directly into the Lower Lakes. In fact, the locks and canals of the seaway will accommodate the largest vessel now in the lake ore fleet. The competi tive advantage of Labrador ore will be deter mined, in part, by the rate of tolls charged for traffic through the Seaway. The fixing of such charges is still under advisement. 11 FOURTH FEDERAL RESERVE! DISTRICT i CLEVELAND TOLEDO AKRON • PA. I «{YOUNGSTOWN CANTON • O H IO mm * CINCINNATI LEXINGTON ■ MAIN OFFICE ★ (BRANCH OFFICES