The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
MONTHLY OCTOBtR 1952 Keview CONTENTS . 1 Population and Housing Trends in Fourth District Metropolitan Areas . . 4 Recent Financial Developments National Business Summary . . . . . . . . 11 12 FINANCE • INDUSTRY • AGRICULTURE • TRADE FO U R T H FED ERAL R E SE R V E D IS T R IC T Cleveland 1, Ohio Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Vol. 34— No. 10 Recent Financial Developments T CHANGES IN THE MONEY SUPPLY HE third quarter of 1952 was marked by susstained demand for funds from Federal, State and Selected Periods—1951 and 1952 local governments, from private business, from home (In billions of dollars) buyers and owners, and from consumers. Apparently a considerable part of the requirements for credit was met out of the savings of the nation and from loan Third Quarter First Half repayments. Throughout the period, the Federal Re serve System continued to exert a restraining influ 1952e 1951 1952e 1951 ence. The growth of bank credit and of the money Total Money Supply............... + 2.3 + 2.3 +1.6 + 0.6 supply was of modest proportions. On the whole, the U. S. Government Deposits. + 1.1 —0.5 + 2.6 + 2.9 expansion of credit does not appear to have added All Other Deposits............... + 1.1 + 3.4 —1.2 —2.7 materially to inflationary pressures. Currency............................... +0.1 —0.4 +0.2 + 0.4 The expansion in credit contributed to a growth of over $2 billion in the money supply. Nearly all of the increase occurred in deposits; currency outside banks was little changed. The changes are shown in the adjacent table. The chief factors in the growth in money supply were an increase in bank loans of over $1 billion, and purchases by the Federal Reserve banks of about $800 million of U. S. Government securities. Govern ment security holdings of commercial and mutual savings banks showed little net change, but these banks added to their holdings of corporate and municipal securities. Growth in the Money Supply The gross debt of the U. S. Treasury increased by $3/2 billion during the third quarter, the largest increase for any quar ter since World War II, with the exception of the Treasury Finance Principal Factors Affecting Money Supply...................... Gold Stock............................ Security Holdings................ F. R. Banks....................... Other Banks...................... Bank Loans........................... +2.8 +3.1 +0.2 +1.6 + 1.7 + 0.8 +0.5 +0.8 + 1.2 + 1.2 + 1.2 + 2.4 +0.6 —0.4 —0.9 +0.5 + 2.2 + 0.7 —1.0 —1.7 + 2.2 —3.9 +3.4 e—estimated third quarter of 1949. An issue for cash of nearly $4% billion was offset to the extent of about $700 million by cash redemption of maturing obligations. On July 1, 1952, the Treasury issued $4% billion of bonds maturing June 15, 1958, and bearing inter est at 2 Yq percent per annum to help finance the deficit anticipated for the rest of the calendar year. The 2Yq percent bond was the first marketable Treas ury security of a year or more maturity to be offered Page 2 Monthly Business Review for public cash subscription since the Victory loan of late 1945. In addition to the cash offering of bonds, an 11month \ / q percent certificate was issued on July 1 in exchange for approximately $5 billion of maturing certificates, and in August a 2 percent, 1-year certifi cate, the highest rate carried by a 1-year security since 1933, was issued in exchange for nearly $2^4 billion of certificates maturing August 15 and Sep tember 1. It was in these exchanges that the Treas ury was called upon to retire about $700 million for cash. The most recent, and largest, refunding operation by the Treasury involved nearly $11 billion of certi ficates, maturing October 1, for which 14-month notes bearing 2 1/q percent interest were offered in exchange in mid-September. Since the actual ex change did not occur until October 1, this exchange had no effect on the volume of Governments out standing during the third quarter. Apparently, how ever, it caused some shifting of these securities from other hands into the portfolios of the Federal Reserve banks. The Treasury’s financing was accomplished with only moderate recourse to the banking system, most of the increase in the public debt being financed out of the savings of the country. Temporary financ ing by the banks of brokers and dealers and of the Treasury itself did occur from time to time but these loans were paid off promptly. Changes in the com position of bank portfolios also took place and total holdings of U. S. Government securities by the bank ing system increased somewhat for the quarter as a whole. U. S. Government securities held by commer cial banks showed little net change, but open market purchases added to the holdings of the Federal Re serve Banks. Bank Holdings of Governments Debts 0f State and local governments continued to expand during the third quarter of 1952 but the financial de mands of these bodies were noticeably lighter than in the first half of the year when borrow ing was in substantial volume. Bank purchases of obligations of State and local governments were reflected in an increase in holdings of “other securities” of about $1^> billion during the nine months of 1952, with about one-third of the expansion occurring in the third quarter. At this rate the total 1952 increase in bank investments in such securities would be close to the record 1950 gain of more than $2 billion. Fourth District banks present a sharp contrast to the rest of the country, registering only a small gain in holdings of securities other than obligations of the U. S. Government during 1952 to date. This may be State and Municipal Finance October 1, 1952 COMMERCIAL, INDUSTRIAL, AND AGRICULTURAL LOANS Cumulative Change, Weekly 1950, 1951, 1952 (Weekly Reporting Member Banks—U. S.) . . . an upswing in commercial and industrial loans got underway in the third quarter, as is usual, at weekly reporting banks throughout the country, and by the end of September the shrinkage during the first half of the year had ben cancelled. NOTE: Latest date plotted, September 17, 1952. due in part to the more sustained loan demand in this area than in the country as a whole. The financing of near-record expenditures for plant and equipment and the need for working capital was reflected in a sustained volume of new corporate security issues and in a further expansion of business loans during the third quarter of 1952. Corporate security flotations for new capital in the July-September quar ter were not far short of the record $8 billion annual rate achieved in the first six months of the year. Bank loans to business, which had declined some what during the first half of the year, increased notice ably in the latter part of the third quarter. The re covery for the third quarter brought the total for the weekly reporting member banks close to the all-time high of last December with nearly half of the twelve Federal Reserve districts setting new records. Outstanding loans to commodity dealers and to processors of food, liquor, and tobacco products, which had been reduced during the first seven months of the year with the movement of merchandise from factories and warehouses into distributive channels and to consumers, rose again during the third quarter with the beginning of harvesting. The recession in the textile industry in 1951 and early 1952 led to loan repayments during most of that period as textile firms reduced their working capital needs through inventory and production cut backs. Since the middle of the year textile firms have expanded output somewhat, and have again increased their borrowings at the commercial banks. Bank Loans to Business Monthly Business Review October 1, 1952 The expansion of loans to producers of metals and metal products slowed noticeably in the second quar ter of the year, but still constituted an important force bolstering loan totals. In July and August, however, with the steel mills shut down and many of the manu facturers of steel-using products working short-time and reducing inventories, substantial repayments were reported in loans to the metals and metal prod ucts group of industries. With production restored, and pipe-lines being refilled, demands on the banks by these firms for cash have revived. Sales finance companies generally continued to bor row from banks this summer and early fall, in con trast to their virtual absence from the loan market in the comparable period of last year. Increased borrow ing by finance companies presumably reflected the growth of consumer credit, in which these companies played a prominent part. Public utility companies have reduced their in debtedness to reporting banks, with particularly heavy repayments since the middle of the year. These net repayments, in contrast to the continuous borrowing in 1951, may reflect the substantial volume of funds raised through security issues this year, as well as, perhaps, the availability of increased revenues. Capi tal expenditures of utility companies are being main tained at high levels. In the Fourth District, the business loan picture turned from slight decline and virtual stability be tween March and August to a fairly sharp rise in September, which carried the total to new record levels. New loan volume in July and August, particuCOMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL LOANS, SELECTED BUSINESS GROUPS Cumulative Change, Monthly, 1952 (Weekly Reporting Banks—U. S.) 8!H b8 u ?AR3 o r DOLLARS l,SOO 1,000 500 0 500 1,000 ______________ _____________________________________________ ^ J F M A M J J A S O N D 1,500 . . . loans to producers of metals and metal products con tinued to rise throughout the first half of the year, but were reduced during and shortly after the steel strike. The usual shrinkage in loans of commodity dealers and pro ducers of food, liquor and tobacco products during the first half of the year was followed by an anticipated up turn in the third quarter. NOTE: Latest date plotted, September 17, 1952. Page 3 larly for manufacturing and extractive firms, slumped to the lowest rate in at least fourteen months, due almost exclusively to the curtailment of borrowing by firms producing metals and metal products. A marked pickup in new borrowing became evident in September. The pattern of borrowing by industry groups in this district closely paralleled the countrywide move ment in direction, though not in degree. Continuous expansion of loans to public utility companies, how ever, and frequent loan reductions by firms engaged in wholesale and retail distribution, contrasted some what with the over-all picture for the country. The volume of new loans made on residential properties during the third quarter of 1952 is estimated to have been larger than in any other third quarter on record except for the boom period in 1950 following the outbreak of the Korean War. The large volume of lending reflects in part the high volume of residential construction, of real estate transfers, and of refinancing. In addition, higher prices prevailed than in previous years, and increases in the amounts of some loans may have followed the relaxation in June of Regulation X and the com panion FHA and VA regulations. The increase in new loans has been in the so-called “conventional” loans; loans insured or guaranteed by the FHA and VA have declined almost continuously in the past two years. The decline in the insured or guaranteed loans is due largely to the tightness in the money market which makes 4 percent and 4*4 percent loans unattractive to lenders even when accompanied by Government insurance or guaranty. The volume of new loans continued to exceed re payments, and mortgage loans outstanding on resi dential properties have risen to successive record levels in recent months. The outstanding mortgage debt on nonfarm 1- to 4-family houses now amounts to nearly $60 billion, or about three times the debt outstanding on such properties at the close of World War II. The Defense Production Act Amendments of 1952, enacted June 30, provided for a relaxation of the regulations governing the extensions of credit on residential properties whenever the number of new residential starts in each of three consecutive months should fall below an annual rate of 1,200,000 after taking into account normal seasonal fluctuations. Starts were below the minimum rate in each of the three months of June, July and August and, effective September 16, 1952, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System suspended Regulation X in its entirety with reference to both residential and nonresidential construction. Concurrently, the Adminis trator of the Housing and Home Finance Agency instructed the Federal Housing Administration, the Real Estate Credit (CONTINUEDgON PAGE 9) Monthly Business Review Page 4 October 1, 1952 Population and Housing Trends in Fourth District Metropolitan Areas G tan population. However, the rate of growth in the ENERAL population and housing trends in the 18 District metropolitan areas averaged 14 percent, Fourth District’s metropolitan areas1 show more differences, from than similarities with, trends in considerably below the 22 percent gain averaged by the country’s 168 metropolitan areas. The nonmetro metropolitan areas throughout the country as a whole. politan population of the District grew at a rate of The main similarities noted are: both the popula 4 percent over the 1940-50 decade as compared with tion and the housing supply increased faster inside 6 percent nationally. metropolitan areas between 1940 and 1950 than they did in nonmetropolitan areas; the housing supply in Only 5 of the 18 District metropolitan areas creased at a faster rate than did the population; and, equaled or exceeded the average growth rate of the home owners outnumbered renters for the first time nation’s metropolitan areas. Dayton ranked first in history. among the District’s 18 areas with a 38 percent spurt in population, followed by Lorain-Elyria, Columbus, The major differences between Fourth District and Lexington, and Hamilton-Middletown, in that order, national trends are: the slower rate of growth in with population gains ranging from 32 to 22 percent. population and housing within the District; a greater On the other hand, both the Wheeling-Steubenville relative improvement in the District’s housing supply; and the Johnstown metropolitan areas lost population. a lower vacancy ratio and fewer substandard dwell Nationally, the rate of change in population ranged ings in the District; and a smaller percentage of from a 110 percent gain in the Albuquerque, New renters locally. A standard metropolitan area has been established by the Bureau of the Census in cooperation with a number of other Federal agencies in connec tion with each city of 50,000 or more inhabitants in 1950. Except in New England, each standard metro politan area is defined in terms of one or more entire counties with the name of the area indicating the central city (or cities). On the basis of the 1950 Census of Population, 168 standard metropolitan areas were delineated throughout the United States. Eighteen of them are in the Fourth District. Sixteen lie wholly within the Fourth District (see map) and two others have roughly one-half of their land area lying in the District. In 1950, nearly two-thirds of the Fourth District’s population resided in metropolitan areas on about one-fifth of the District’s land area. Nationally, the metropolitan area resident proportion was smaller—only about 56 out of every 100 persons resided within standard metropolitan area boundaries. Standard Metropolitan Areas STANDARD METROPOLITAN AREAS Fourth District T h e p o p u la tio n of th e Fourth District’s 18 stand ard metropolitan areas in creased at a more rapid rate between 1940 and 1950 than did the nonmetropoli- Population increasing faster inside metropolitan areas i Fourth District population trends, both urban and rural, were dis cussed in the August, 1952, Review. Population and selected economic indicators were also presented for the economic areas of Ohio (both metropolitan and nonmetropolitan) in the October 1951, Review and the following Review Supplements: November 1951; January 1952; February 1952; March 1952; and May 1952. . . . nearly two-thirds of the Fourth District’s population resided within the boundaries of 18 standard metropolitan areas on April 1, 1950. Source: Bureau of the Census. October 1, 1952 Monthly Business Review Mexico, standard metropolitan area to a 15 percent loss in the Scranton, Pennsylvania, area. Dayton’s first place among the District’s 18 metro politan areas in the rate of gain over the 1940-50 intercensal period was partially due to the expansion of Wright-Patterson Air Force Base during World War II and its maintenance as a permanent installa tion since the end of the War. Population growth in Lorain-Elyria was stimulated by the rapid expansion of industry in that area during the 1940-50 decade. In 1950, Pittsburgh had the largest resident popu lation of the 18 District metropolitan areas while Lima had the smallest. (Pittsburgh ranked eighth in the number of inhabitants among the nation’s 168 metropolitan areas in 1950 and Cleveland ranked tenth.) In terms of land area, Pittsburgh, with 4 counties, was also the largest of the 18 and Lexington was the smallest. However, Cleveland was the most densely populated metropolitan area in the District, having 2,130 people living on each average square mile or nearly twice as many as Cincinnati, the sec ond most densely populated area. Johnstown was the most sparsely populated of the 18 District areas, aver aging 164 persons to each square mile of land area. The housing supply increased faster than the population over the 1940-50 decade in both the Fourth District and the coun try as a whole, suggesting that the population is better housed now than in 1940. Again, as was the case with population changes, the rate of increase in the housing inventory of metropolitan areas was well above that of nonmetropolitan areas while the Dis trict rate fell short of the national gain. Even though the number of dwelling units did not increase as rapidly in the Fourth District as they did nationally between 1940 and 1950, the District’s in habitants took more rapid strides in improving their housing supply over this decade than did their nation al counterparts. In the District, the number of dwell ing units increased 19 percent between the last two Census dates as compared with a national gain of 23 percent. But, comparison of these rates of change with population gains made over the same period (Table I) shows that the District’s housing inventory increased nearly twice as fast as did its population whereas, nationally, the housing supply increased only about I /2 times as fast as the population. Furthermore, preliminary reports for the nine lar gest metropolitan areas in the District indicate that the proportion of the District’s inhabitants living in substandard dwelling units is below the national average. About 8.5 percent of all the dwelling units in these nine major areas were dilapidated or without running water in 1950 as compared with a national proportion of 9.2 percent. Most of these substandard units were occupied. Of the nine large District metro- Better Housing Page 5 TABLE I COMPARISON OF GAINS IN POPULATION AND HOUSING, 1940 TO 1950 Fourth District vs. United States Percentage Increase, 1940 to 1950 Subject Population Dwelling Units Fourth District In standard metropolitan areas___ 14.2 22.0 In nonmetropolitan areas................. 3.8 5.11 T o ta l............................................ 10.4 19.31 Continental United States In standard metropolitan areas .... 22.0 n.a. In nonmetropolitan areas................. 6.0 n.a. T otal............................................ 14.5 22.91 Source: Bureau of the Census, n.a. Not available. 1 Preliminary. Based on a 20 percent sample of Census returns. politan areas, Cleveland had the smallest percentage of substandard units and Wheeling-Steubenville had the largest. In spite of the rapid gains in housing relative to population during the last intercensal period, the 1950 Census of Housing revealed that none of the District’s 18 metropolitan areas had a vacancy ratio2 as high as the national average. In fact, the vacancy ratio of 0.9 percent in these 18 areas was about 50 percent below the national average of 1.6 percent. This would seem to indicate the need for further expansion of the District’s housing inventory and may help explain why home building has been proceeding at a faster rate in the District than in the 37 states east of the Rocky Mountains for the past two years. Home ownership grew rapidly in the nin5 largest metropoli tan areas in the District dur ing the 1940’s. Preliminary reports show that there were more home owners than renters in these nine areas in 1950, just the reverse of what was true in 1940. In fact, the number of rental units declined between 1940 and 1950 in six of the nine areas even though the total number of dwelling units increased substantially. Youngstown and Akron ranked first and second, respectively, among the country’s 57 largest metro politan areas in the percentage of occupied dwelling units owned by the occupant. Cincinnati was the only one of the nine largest District metropolitan areas Home Ownership Rises Substantially 2 Includes only those units that were nonseasonal, not dilapidated, and available for sale or rent at the time of enumeration. Monthly Business Review Page 6 October 1, 1952 TABLE II SELECTED POPULATION AND HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS Fourth District Standard Metropolitan Areas April 1, 1950, compared with previous Censuses Standard Metropolitan Area POPULATION Percent 1950 Increase Total Per 1940 1930 to Square to Mile 1950 1950 DWELLING UNITS All Units Occupied Units1 Percent Percent Increase Increase 1950 1950 1940 1940 to to 1950 1950 122,694 30 5 119,317 30.3 83,156 80,906 31 0 30.1 284,261 18 0 276,700 21.6 438,215 427,117 20 2 21.9 145,388 147,955 34 8 37.5 133,680 42 3 130,896 42.6 61,841 64,776 28 7 28.8 42,154 41,105 26 3 26.5 70,186 23 3 67,344 21.9 78,868 76,364 12 0 10.8 28,111 28 0 27,330 29.9 26,653 29 1 25,959 28.2 43,178 41,459 37.2 36 4 614,408 628,338 16 8 16.9 22 2 32,877 33,651 23.4 116,662 119,212 21.4 19 3 100,533 103,826 10 2 8.9 149,725 145,967 23.1 23 7 993 20.8 19.1 Akron.................. 410,032 494 20.6 27.7 Canton................ 283,194 904,402 1,239 14.9 19.6 Cincinnati.......... Cleveland........... 1,465,511 2,130 15.6 17.9 Columbus........... 503,410 936 29.5 39.4 Dayton................ 457,333 519 38.0 49.1 219,388 Erie..................... 270 21.3 25.2 HamiltonMiddletown... 147,203 313 22.4 29.0 Huntington8.9 16.8 Ashland.......... 245,795 175 164 —2.4 2.6 Johnstown.......... 291,354 Lexington........... 100,746 360 27.7 47.0 Lima................... 88,183 215 20.3 27.0 Lorain-Elyria ... 148,162 299 31.8 35.7 Pittsburgh......... 2,213,236 6.3 9.4 725 Springfield.......... 111,661 278 16.7 22.8 Toledo................ 395,551 1,153 14.9 13.8 Wheeling Steubenville . . 354,092 231 —2.8 1.7 528,498 307 11.6 15.3 Youngstown....... 18 Metropolitan 566 14.2 18.1 2,500,905 Areas4.............. 8,511,479 Continental United States.. 150,697,361 51 14.5 22.7 45,875,000s Percent of All Units Vacant & Available 19502 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.3 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.8 Percent of All Units Dilapidated or Without Running Water 1950* 7 n.a. 6 5 9 11 n.a. n.a. n.a. 16 n.a. n.a. n.a. 10 n.a. 9 20 11 22 0 2,437,414 22.9 0.9 8.55 22 0 42,856,051 23.0 1.6* 9.2 n.a. Not available. i Based on 1950 Census of Population count of the number of house holds, which are the same as occupied dwellings units by definition. However, minor discrepancies may arise between the two series since Population and Housing data are tabulated separately. 2 Includes only nonseasonal, not dilapidated units available for rent or sale at time of enumeration. 3 Preliminary. Based on a 20 percent sample of Census returns. 4 Includes only the Fourth District portions of the Huntington-Ashland and Johnstown standard metropolitan areas. 5 Average for nine standard metropolitan areas lying wholly within the Fourth District, Johnstown excluded. where the renters outnumbered the owners in 1950, a situation that prevailed in only 15 of the 57 leading metropolitan areas in the country. The gain in home ownership that occurred during the last intercensal period was a sharp reversal of a long-time tendency in the opposite direction. Even though the number of owner-occupied dwellings in the United States has increased during each de cade since 1890, the proportion of owner-occupied units has declined. It declined slowly from 1890 to 1920, increased moderately during the 1920’s, but dropped sharply during the 1930’s so that the per centage of owner-occupied units in 1940 was smaller than any previous year for which data is available. The rapid changes that occurred during the 1940’s made 1950 the first Census year in which more than half of the nation’s dwelling units were owner-occupied and also marked the first decade on record dur Source: Bureau of the Census, Monthly Business Review October 1, 1952 ing which there was a decrease in the number of rental units. This trend towards home ownership was accelerated by increased demand for housing, which accompanied the high rate of family formation dur ing and immediately following the war, a recordbreaking growth in family incomes, and the dis couragements to investment in rental housing result ing from rising costs and taxes and from rent controls. Indications are that the number of families in the United States increased by about one-fourth between 1940 and 1950 while the median family income in 1949 was roughly 2/^ times the 1939 median3. New families were formed at a much faster rate than the population was growing over the last decade, intensi fying the demand for new living quarters. At the same time, families appeared to be able to afford better housing since living costs (excluding rent) no more than doubled between 1939 and 1949. Family incomes in the Fourth District’s nine major metropolitan areas averaged well above the national median of $3,068 in 1949, ranging from $3,996 in Cleveland down to $3,175 in Wheeling-Steubenville. 3 Due to changes in definition, the 1950 data on families are not com parable with previous Censuses. However, trends in family income and family formation since 1944 may be traced through the Census Bureau’s Current Population Reports (Series P-20 and P-60) and, in some in stances, comparisons with earlier years may be made. Page 7 The median income of Cleveland families was topped by only 3 of the country’s 57 largest metropolitan areas while Toledo ranked sixth among the 57 areas in this respect. For the state of Ohio as a whole, the median family income in 1949 was $3,305. The higher income level may help explain the more rapid growth in home ownership in these nine areas relative to the rest of the country, but other factors must also be considered. Rent controls, coupled with rising construction and maintenance costs and high taxes, were probably the biggest single stimulant to the trend towards home ownership. Landlords, particularly those renting single family homes, found it uneconomic to continue to rent their property. Caught in the squeeze between rent ceilings and rising maintenance costs and taxes, they sold their houses. The lower tax rates on capital gains permitted them to realize substantial profits from the sale which could be put into alternative forms of investment where the return was not frozen at pre-inflation levels. At the same time, rising build ing costs discouraged the construction of new rental units. Rent controls put a ceiling on the return from an increasingly costly investment. Congress recognized this in 1947 when it specifically exempted rental units built after 1947 from rent controls. As a result, the supply of rental housing actually TABLE III HOME OWNERSHIP, FAMILIES AND FAMILY INCOME Nine largest standard metropolitan areas1 in the Fourth District Standard Metropolitan Area Akron.................................. Cincinnati........................... Cleveland........................... Columbus........................... Dayton................................ Pittsburgh........................... Toledo................................. Wheeling-Steubenville.... Youngstown....................... All nine Areas.................... Continental United States. Percent of Occupied Dwelling Units Occupied by Owner Percent Increase 1940 to 1950 Owner Renter Number 1950 Occupied Occupied Units Units 19502 1940 69 49 55 53 61 57 65 61 70 58 55 53 40 40 43 47 41 50 47 55 69 51 67 71 81 62 60 43 54 —15 6 —10 12 6 —16 —15 —21 —17 110,500 251,400 396,600 132,600 123,000 574,300 106,500 92,900 137,100 43 44 62 54 —9 —3 1,924,900 38,788,000 Source: Bureau of the Census. NOTE: Percentages may not add to 100 because of rounding. 1 Containing 250,000 or more inhabitants in 1940. 2 Preliminary. Based on a 20 percent sample of Census returns. FAMILIES2 Income Level, 1949 Percent Reporting $2,000 $5,000 Under to and $2,000 $4,999 over 15 62 23 21 57 22 15 50 35 14 58 28 15 58 27 18 58 24 14 56 30 24 57 18 17 60 24 17 56 26 30 50 20 Median Income $3,527 3,389 3,996 3,694 3,772 3,380 3,837 3,175 3,448 3,568 3,068 Monthly Business Review Page 8 declined, while demand for living space was increas ing. Many families were forced to buy a home in order to have a roof over their heads. Purchasing a home was also easier than ever before—particularly for the veteran — due to higher loan ratios, lower interest rates, and longer maturities on mortgages. If rents had not been controlled over the past decade and had increased proportionally with other living costs, the median monthly rent today would be only a little less than the median monthly payment of principal and interest on a home mortgage; but, the supply of rental housing would have, most likely, been much greater. Families would have had greater opportunity to exercise a choice between being tenant families or owner families. As it turned out, the alternative was not always available and the majority became home owners. NOTES O N SO URCE M ATERIAL The foregoing statistics were selected from the wealth of available Census data in order to present a few major trends relating to population and housing in the Fourth District. They represent only a small portion of the data being made available from the 1950 Censuses of Popula tion and Housing. Much of the detailed data is not yet available for small areas but all reports are scheduled for completion by the end of the year. The following reports of the Bureau of the Census were used as source material for the data presented above. 1950 Census of Population Preprints: Preprint of Volume 1, Number of Inhabitants: Report P-A17, Kentucky; Report P-A35, Ohio; Report P-A38, Pennsylvania; and Report P-A48, West Virginia. (Totals for cities, small areas, counties, and urban-rural residence.) Advance Reports: Series PC-9, No. 2, Population of the United States, by Re gions, Divisions, and States, and its Territories, Possessions, Etc.: April 1, 1950. Series PC-14, No. 1, Population of Standard Metropolitan Areas and Cities of 50,000 or More, by Color: 1950 and 1940. October 1,1952 Series PC-14, No. 2, Number of Households in Standard Metropolitan Areas, Counties, and Urban Places of 10,000 or More: April 1, 1950. Preliminary Reports: Series PC-5, Characteristics of the Population of Standard Metropolitan Areas, April 1, 1950: Report No. 1, Akron; Report No. 11, Cincinnati; Report No. 12, Cleveland; Re port No. 13, Columbus; Report No. 15, Dayton; Report No. 23, Johnstown; Report No. 37, Pittsburgh; Report No. 51, Toledo; Report No. 54, Wheeling-Steubenville; and Report No. 57, Youngstown. (Reports in this series issued for the 57 standard metropolitan areas with 250,000 or more inhabitants in 1940. All data in these reports are preliminary as they are based on a 20 percent sample of Census returns. Data presented includes age and sex of population, marital status, employment status, and income.) Series PC-6, No. 8, Characteristics of the Population of Ohio, April 1, 1950. (Contains same information as series PC-5 on a state basis.) Series PC-7: Report No. 1, General Characteristics of the Population of the United States, April 1, 1950; and Report No. 2, Employment and Income in the United States, by Regions: 1950. (Contains same information as PC-5 on a nationwide basis.) 1950 Census of Housing Advance Reports: Series HC-7, Vacant Dwelling Units: Report No. 17, Ken tucky; Report No. 35, Ohio; Report No. 38, Pennsylvania; and Report No. 48, West Virginia. (Lists final count of dwelling units in state by standard metropolitan areas and urban places of 10,000 or more along with the number and type of vacant units.) Preliminary Reports: Series HC-3: Housing Characteristics of Standard Metro politan Areas: Numbered the same as population charac teristics Series PC-5. (Preliminary data for the 57 standard metropolitan areas with a population of 250,000 or more in 1940. Contains data on tenure, number of rooms, type of structure, condition and plumbing facilities, contract monthly rent, and value of dwelling units.) Series HC-4, No. 8, Housing Characteristics of Ohio, April 1, 1950. (Contains same information as Series HC-3 on a state basis.) Series HC-5, No. 1, Housing Characteristics of the United States, April 1, 1950. (Contains same information as HC-3 on a nationwide basis.) October 1, 1952 Monthly Business Review RECENT FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS (CONTINUED FROM PAGE 3) Veterans Administration, and the U. S. Department of Agriculture to relax down payment requirements on home loans aided or made by the Federal Govern ment. Consumer The volume of consumer instalment Credit credit outstanding reached new record levels during the third quarter of the year. The partly seasonal expansion of consumer in stalment credit, which had been under way since February, was sharply accelerated during May when Regulation W was terminated, and has continued to maintain an impressive rate of growth. Dollarwise, the largest expansion occurred in credit to finance automobile purchases, although all types of credit, in cluding repair and modernization loans, personal loans for a variety of purposes, and credit for the purchase of household appliances, furniture, radio and TV sets, also increased noticeably. The near record expansion in instalment credit during the sum mer and early fall contrasts with a very moderate increase in the comparable period of 1951. The recent growth of instalment debt is due in part to an increase in new loan volume and to a slowing down in repayments, the latter resulting from longer maturities granted since the termination of Regulation W in May. In certain instances, such as in consumer durables other than automobiles, the increase in new loans reflects a pickup in the physical volume of purchases. In other cases, for example auto mobiles and repair and modernization loans, higher prices have necessitated a larger unit loan volume. In all instances, a reduction of down payment require DISCOUNTS AND ADVANCES OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS Monthly 1950-1952 (Daily Averages) ments since Regulation W was terminated has re sulted in a higher proportion of the sale price being borrowed and a consequent increase in instalment credit. The lengthening of terms, which followed termina tion of Regulation W, was probably the principal cause of the slowdown in repayments and, in turn, of the recent bulge in instalment credit outstanding. Nothwithstanding th e termination or relaxation of controls on consumer credit and real estate credit required by law, the Fed eral Reserve System has continued to follow an effec tive policy of general credit restraint. The expansion in bank credit and in currency in circulation that accompanied the expanding financial needs of the nation put increased pressure on bank reserves. While some purchases of securities by the System were made in support of Treasury fiscal operations, these pur chases were so conducted as to maintain some pressure on the banks, and in recent months member bank borrowings from the Reserve banks have averaged higher than in any comparable period since 1929. The purchase of securities by the Federal Reserve banks and the borrowing by member banks from the Federal Reserve banks provide the member banks with needed reserves. However, banks are reluctant to rely on borrowed funds for any extended period of time. During periods of indebtedness, consequently, banks are under pressure to adjust their lending and investing activities to bring their operations in line with reserve funds otherwise available. The ability of the System to avoid excessive pur chases of U. S. Government securities has kept the Federal Reserve Policy and the Money Markets YIELDS ON SELECTED SECURITIES 1949 1952 PERCENT PERCENT 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 . . . discounts and advances at the Federal Reserve Banks continued to increase this year, and in July reached a daily average figure of more than $1 billion, the highest since 1929. Page 9 . . . short-term rates began to rise markedly around the middle of the year, and during August new Treasury bills were sold at the highest average yield in twenty years. Long-term rates also stiffened somewhat around the middle of the year, reverting close to the January level. Page 10 Monthly Business Review banks and money markets under moderate pressure at a time when unchecked influences could readily have brought about a rapid expansion of credit on easy terms and thus could have added materially to inflationary pressures. As a consequence, possible in flationary effects of monetary developments have been kept to a minimum while at the same time the financial needs of the nation have been fully met. Money rates advanced during the third quarter. Yields on new bills rose from an average of 1.700 per cent in June to 1.876 percent in August, subse quently dipping somewhat to 1.786 percent in Sep tember. The rate of 2 percent on 1-year certificates issued in August was the highest since 1933 and even this issue has been quoted periodically at a discount. Long-term rates have also shown some firmness although they are still below the levels reached in January of this year. October 1, 1952 An important factor in the noninflationary financing of the American economy un doubtedly has been the continued high level of sav ing. In contractual and liquid form, as well as in the form of debt repayments, the net inflow of savings into such institutions as life insurance companies, sav ings and loan associations and banks provided a sub stantial part of the funds required to finance the deficit spending of other individuals, businesses and governments. The rapid fifteen-month increase in time deposits at commercial and savings banks tended to slow down somewhat in the third quarter, though still exceeding the expansion in several other postwar years. Savings and loan associations also reported a moderate slow ing down in the rate of accumulation of private savings. Savings Monthly Business Review October 1, 1952 Page 11 SUMMARY OF NATIONAL BUSINESS CONDITIONS By the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (Released for Publication September 30, 1952) Industrial production recovered sharply in August and rose further in September to its previous post war high. In September, seasonally adjusted sales at department stores are estimated to have declined following a marked rise in August, while expanded output has permitted some recovery in automobile sales. Wholesale prices declined somewhat after midAugust reflecting largely heavy marketings of live stock. Consumers’ prices continued at record levels. Industrial production The Board’s index of industrial production in creased to 215 in August from 193 per cent of the 1935-39 average in July, reflecting mainly the rapid return to full-scale operations at steel mills and a marked gain in nondurable goods output. Accord ing to preliminary estimates industrial production has risen further in September to 223. Steel production rose in August to 92 per cent of rated capacity and by late September was scheduled at a new record rate of 104 per cent. Activity in machinery and transportation equipment industries showed only a limited recovery in August but has apparently increased substantially in September. Pas senger auto assemblies this month are estimated to have totaled about 445,000 units, the largest monthly output since June 1951. A substantial pick-up in production of television sets and major household appliances in August and September reflected earlier large inventory declines and increased consumer buying. Expansion in nondurable goods output in August reflected principally greater than seasonal increases at textile and paperboard mills. There was also a sharp recovery in coke output, and petroleum refin ing, which was already close to earlier peak rates in August, rose further in September. Total meat pro duction since mid-August has averaged 8 per cent above a year ago, with production of beef and veal up by about a fourth and pork down considerably. Minerals output has increased sharply in August and September with resumption of iron ore mining and marked gains in output of crude petroleum and coal. Construction Value of construction contract awards declined slightly in August as awards for public nonresidential work dropped sharply following three months of steady increases. Value of new construction put in place was the same as in July, after allowance for seasonal influences. The number of housing units started in August declined more than seasonally to 99,000 from 104,000 in July, but was 11 per cent larger than in August 1951. Employment Employment in nonagricultural establishments, after allowance for seasonal changes rose in August to 46.8 million, an all-time high. In steel-consuming industries the number employed and employee work ing time increased but remained below pre-strike levels. Average hourly earnings of factory workers were up about one per cent from July to $1.66— the level of other recent months. Unemployment declined in August to 1.6 million, reflecting in part the end of the steel strike and in part seasonal factors. Distribution Sales at department stores, which had shown a greater than seasonal rise in August, increased less than seasonally in the first three weeks of September but remained close to year-ago levels. Reflecting in part the rise in sales, seasonally adjusted stocks at department stores are estimated to have declined somewhat in August. Sales of new passenger cars have risen from the sharply reduced August rate and, with output considerably expanded, dealers’ stocks are being replenished. Commodity prices The general level of wholesale commodity prices declined somewhat from mid-August to the third week of September. The major decreases were in livestock and products owing partly to a consider able expansion in marketings of cattle. Prices of in dustrial commodities generally showed little change. The consumers’ price index rose further by .2 per cent in August. Average prices of foods again ad vanced and rents and fuel prices increased, while prices of apparel declined slightly further. Bonk credit Total bank credit outstanding at weekly reporting banks showed little change between mid-August and mid-September. All major types of loans increased, but holdings of U. S. Government securities de clined. Business loans increased about three-quarters of a billion dollars, reflecting largely credit for marketing crops as well as some borrowing in con nection with tax payments in mid-September. Bank reserve positions continued tight until midSeptember and borrowings from the Federal Reserve generally exceeded excess reserves. Thereafter, bor rowings were reduced as banks obtained reserve funds as a result of a decline in Treasury balances at the Reserve Banks and System purchases of U. S. Government securities in connection with the Octo ber 1 certificate refinancing. Security markets Yields on Treasury bills declined during the first three weeks of September, while yields on long-term Treasury bonds rose somewhat. The Treasury offered 2Vs per cent 14-month notes in exchange for the 10.9 billion dollars of certificates maturing October 1, 1952, and has also announced an offering of 2.5 billion of 161-day tax anticipation bills to be dated October 8 and to mature March 18, 1953. Page 12 Monthly Business Review October 1, 1952 Seeing the Invisible by CLYDE WILLIAMS, Director, Battelle Memorial Institute A number of outstanding re search tools have made it possible for man to extend the range of his own visual powers. The light micro scope, for example, magnifies the invisible. The X-ray penetrates it. The Geiger counter detects it. These instruments have brought priceless benefits to mankind in terms of better health, better prod ucts, and more efficient production processes. Another research tool is adding a new dimension to man’s conquest of the invisible. This tool is the high-speed motion-picture camera, which stops the motion that makes certain high-speed events invisible. Using this type of camera, scientists hope eventually to find answers to problems that have confronted science and industry for a long time. Used to study the causes of knock in the piston engine, the camera has already brought some valuable results. It is also being used as an aid in solving problems in ballistics, the motion of interacting machine parts, metal-cutting processes, high-speed weaving ma chinery, and in the operation of jet engines. The unique advantage of the high-speed motion-picture camera is that it permits visual study of events whose de velopment occurs too fast for the human eye to follow. Many common events take place at much more rapid speeds than we think. A band saw cutting wood moves at the rate of about 130 feet per second, or nearly 90 miles per hour. Jet fighters in flight cover 900 to 1100 feet per second. The main stroke of a lightning discharge pierces the skies at a speed of about 33,000 feet per second. Meteors in space may travel at 130,000 feet per second. With these and hundreds of other rapid events, we can see the total motion, or end result involved. We can not, however, see the individual stages in the development of that motion or result. Using various types of high-speed motion-picture cam eras, it is possible to retard or, for practical purposes, to stop rapid events into a series of still shots. Later projec tion of the series of still shots at speeds that the human eye can follow creates a slow-motion effect of the high speed phenomena. The product development engineer can then analyze “what happens’ during the individual stages of the event. With this basic knowledge, he has an invalu able aid for devising methods to improve the product or process under study. Basically, three types of physical changes occur too rapidly to see with the unaided eye, but the high-speed camera can observe them with ease: first, motion of an object, such as metal chip coming from a cutting tool or the rotation of a gear; second, the change in shape or size of an object, as, for example, the distortion of an aircraft Editor’s Note — W hile the views expressed on this page are not nec essarily those of this bank, the M onthly Business Review is pleased to make this space available for the discussion of significant develop ments in industrial research. tire when it hits the runway; third, changes in the appear ance of a subject, such as the light emitted when a flash bulb explodes or a charge of gasoline burns in an automo bile engine. Many types of high-speed cameras have been developed for engineering and research. The Eastman Kodak HighSpeed Camera and the Wollensak Optical Company’s Fastax, however, are the only ones that are commercially available. The Eastman Kodak camera takes 16-mm. pic tures at speeds up to 3000 frames per second. The Fastax, when exposing 8-mm. film, can run at rates as high as 15,000 frames per second. Recognizing the advantage that photography at much higher speeds would have in research, Battelle has built a camera which can be operated at speeds up to 100,000 frames per second. Faster cameras have been designed and used. Exposure durations as short as one-billionth of a second have been attained. Generally, however, as speeds go beyond 1/100,000 of a second, picture results tend to become less satisfactory. Equipment, furthermore, becomes very complex and expensive. One of the most interesting uses of the high-speed cam era has been for the study of fuel knock in piston engines. Fuel knock severely limits the performance of a sparkignited piston engine. Only certain quality fuels can be used in such an engine to achieve proper performance. For decades, no definite knowledge has existed as to just what knock is. Ten years of research by the National Advisory Com mittee for Aeronautics has produced some valuable results concerning the fundamental nature of knock. Photographs taken with high-speed cameras like the Battelle camera in dicate that knock is essentially an explosive combustion of the last part of the gas to bum in an engine cylinder. The gas that burns explosively, rather than in the normal slow manner of the spark-ignited flame, is usually only a small percentage of the total charge. This “end gas”, intimately mixed with air under high compression, usually ignites of itself and an explosive disturbance, or knock, moves through it at speeds of 4500 to 7000 feet per second. The camera captures the different stages of this phenomenon. Research on the knock problem is continuing at Battelle. The Bell Telephone Laboratories found the high-speed camera very helpful in the development of the best design for telephone hand sets. Many such sets were dropped onto a hard surface and broken. High-speed photographs showed that the breaks did not occur in the manner previously thought. Because of the high-speed photographic results, strength was added in places where strength was previously thought not to be needed. The development of the present hand set, with its great resistance to breakage by dropping, would have been greatly retarded without high-speed pho tography. The high-speed motion-picture camera is no longer a laboratory curiosity. It is a vital industrial tool that is playing an increasingly important part in probing the un known and in bringing higher standards of living to everyone.
@FedFRASER